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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
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shadow.
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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG
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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
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Has it really been a week, Skulk?
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Seems to me like six months or something.
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The amount of stuff that's happened in the past week, quite extraordinary.
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No, no, no.
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Let's start.
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Let's get the elephant out of the room, man.
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Massive applause.
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I mean, we sat here exactly a week ago.
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You called a top more beautiful than,
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yeah.
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And you told me not to.
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You said there was a graveyard with people that called tops in it exclusively.
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And you said, don't do it.
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And I felt so strongly about this gap theory that I have, which is actually very
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well known.
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The exhaustion gap was, in fact, on the Thursday about...
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About 16 hours after I called the top in the gold market.
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But goodness me, it worked spectacularly well, Skunk.
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And I want to take this further because listeners don't know this.
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We actually had a conversation.
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I complimented Lindsay. I think it was Monday or yesterday morning.
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Complimented him and he said, I feel this is overdone.
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Sort of feels like the peg is pegged in again.
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And I went like, well, you...
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Gold, gold, you top so well.
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Why not do the buttons as well?
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And here we sit.
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Here we sit.
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What actually happened was I looked at the gold field's longer term share price
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action.
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And it was down 11.6% at the time.
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And I think that was Monday, Monday morning.
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And it was on a long term trend line support.
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And it was a simple analysis.
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I just said it's done enough.
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And whether that's a buy or a...
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a do-nothing recommendation, I don't know.
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But from then on, it's rallied quite sharply.
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Yeah.
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No, that was a great call.
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Great, great call.
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And now we see, because this is massive movements.
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I mean, we've had a few things happen.
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I mean, like you said, we've had that massive retracement and people are
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actually extremely nervous
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about this retracement.
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But, you know...
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I tend to feel why.
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I mean, yes, we saw a 10% or 20% in silver.
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We saw a massive retracement in these best metals on Friday.
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But I mean, when I did my update on markets on the 1st of February,
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it still showed that even with that, let's call it 10% retracement in the gold price,
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the gold price still did more than 16%
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in dollar terms in January alone.
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So, come on.
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If you're going to be nervous about a 10% retracement, why not ask the question,
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why did it run way over 20% and still more than 30%
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over the previous few days?
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This is volatility.
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And that's why they're saying, I can't remember who coined it.
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I mean, you told me the story.
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It was like gold, gold, it's making me old.
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That's most probably why.
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Well, it's made you old in a good way in the last year, and it will continue to do
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so.
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One thing that a technical analyst spoke to me about after the run-up and then the
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spectacular fall in 48
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hours, it fell nearly $1,200 an ounce, unprecedented stuff in dollar terms.
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But he said, okay, we've had the A, we'll get the B, which is the recovery, and then
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the C leg is down again.
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So whether that C leg, if he's correct, is lower.
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A lower low than the 44.50 or whatever it was that we got last week?
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I don't know.
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But it's interesting.
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I've just completed an interview with somebody much cleverer than me.
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He's probably as clever as you.
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And he's from 91 in London.
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You know 91 very well.
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And he's a gold mining investor.
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And he talked to me about why gold had done it, what he thinks is going to
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happen, and why the gold shares are going to continue to go.
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He said the gold shares...
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are up three times, sometimes four times internationally, but their margins have
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gone up fivefold.
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So he feels the shares are still lagging.
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Yeah, we had this conversation last week.
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I'm just going to talk about the profit margins again.
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I mean, it's true.
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I mean, at these $5,000 levels, these mines are, well,
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they've been printing money for the past three, four years.
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They're just, every day they're printing more.
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But it is important.
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thing to note i mean i did that uh cobe or chicago board of exchange gold
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volatility index on friday and that's an interesting one i mean it's just this
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shows us you need to be you just
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need to be careful um and when volatility starts there's a good
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reason why something like a uh uh uh warren buffett often referred to to
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volatility
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where he likes to buy uh at certain volatility levels and and we'll we'll get
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nervous at certain other
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volatility levels not to go into his strategy but you know when you look at the
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the cobe
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gold volatility index, it's been been hovering around that has got 15 odd levels
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for the past
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20 years.
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And it kicked up in COVID, during COVID.
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We remember that we had that massive spike.
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It kicked up over 30, which basically over 30% during COVID.
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But the highest it's actually been was that time where everybody thought that the
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US is...
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It's actually, it's bankrupt.
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They actually, the volatility index went over 50.
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And for good reason.
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I mean, there was a really, really good reason why that happened.
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Now, on Friday, that was the closest the gold volatility index got to that 50 mark,
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you know,
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since 2008.
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Does it tell us something?
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I'm not going to say it's going to tell us something about the future.
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All that I'm saying is that things were pretty cracked back in 2008 for it to have
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such a massive volatility spike.
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If we're going to start seeing these type of volatility spikes,
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I would just tell people to just be very, very careful.
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Be very careful.
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Be very careful.
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And this is where we're going to get to the behavioral science part of the
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podcast.
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And it would be a real example of investor behavior because you're going to tell me
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now
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what happened on Thursday and Friday.
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What happened to your telephone?
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Well, I had a few nervous calls.
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I'm not going to be lying to you.
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I mean, luckily, I always want to.
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I mean, we always have this conversation on gold and Lindsay and myself talk about
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it.
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And I've been in gold fairly early and I haven't really sold.
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But I just want to make it.
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very clear, I've never been a bet the farm type of guy.
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I've always been managing the risk part of the portfolio,
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not just the performance side of the portfolio.
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Even after massive retracement on Friday,
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portfolios were still fairly stable.
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It's just I had a long conversation with my dad last night.
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You know him as well.
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He's also...
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a well-known individual in the financial industry or investment industry.
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And we had a long conversation and sort of debating both
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sides.
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And I think the one thing that we got to is this could go either side.
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When you have a specific commodity or investment, that has gone from
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$1,000-odd levels and went over $5,000 levels.
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You need to be careful.
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But the problem is when you got something like that, if it's called gold, or called
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silver,
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or called something like a Bitcoin, if something make those type movement,
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you suddenly attract the interest of people that's not always knowledgeable.
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Yes.
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And they look at that and they've got a thing with the kids usually called FOMO.
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They've got the fear of missing out.
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And that's a very, very dangerous thing to be doing.
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in environments where something has gone up as it did.
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I still believe as an investment,
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gold and silver and other precious metals like platinum, palladium, rhodium,
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it's definitely looking attractive.
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I think these underlying mines are really, really profitable.
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And I think if the, let's call it these precious metals stay at these current
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levels.
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it's going to yield a really, really good return for investors.
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I can't see it going much below 4,500.
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I don't think that a market after the extraordinary 48-hour period that it
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suffered is going to recover.
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You can have a nasty injury, for example, and go to hospital and get it bandaged up,
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and the doctor says everything's fine now.
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It doesn't mean to say you're going to go out running again.
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So it's the same with a market like this.
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We did see a V-shaped recovery.
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after Liberation Day in the stock market.
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So there are V-shaped exceptions to the rule.
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But I think that we get the people that didn't get out the first time because it
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was too quick, if it rallies again,
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which it has done.
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I mean, it was 5,050 when I was conducting an interview with that chap from 91.
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That was only 45 minutes ago.
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It's now 49.93, the gold price.
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It's already $50 down.
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It's very volatile.
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So be careful.
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I think let it consolidate and then take it from there.
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Do you agree with me?
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I'm being rather sensible.
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Yeah, I think definitely, undoubtedly.
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But I think today we need to talk about other things.
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Because I think there's this...
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You know, over the past few days,
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we've also started seeing little cracks in these tech companies.
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Very much so.
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Yeah, and that's also a very,
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very interesting play because that's sort of an area in the market that's been
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keeping global markets,
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so to speak, positive.
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I looked at a fund the other day.
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Yeah, I wonder if I should I'd rather not call out the fund manager's name.
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It's not a local fund manager, but a well-known international one.
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Don't do it anyway.
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Someone might be listening.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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No, no, no, exactly.
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But it's not a, it's not a brain dump.
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They've got a, it's, the fund's name is
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Global Brands or Well-Known Brands or something.
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That's the fund's name.
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And it is.
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When you look at the companies that they're holding in this fund, It is the
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best of the best.
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This is the likes of, yes, they've got the Microsoft,
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but they're not really just focused on tech stocks.
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They've got the likes of the Nike and really, really well-known, the strongest
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brands in the world.
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What is interesting when you look at their performances over the past, I think it was
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three years,
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the annual performances in dollar.
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for the mci all country world in it which is their which is their benchmark yield a
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return of just over 21 percent per
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annum this specific fund only did seven percent per annum so so underperformed
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their benchmark by 14
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percent per annum and by no means can you look at these these the the the companies
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that they're holding inside the
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fund and think man this is a bad fund because i look at the fund and I said,
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this is great companies.
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Strong, well-run.
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profitable companies but they were just not the flavor the flavor was if you
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didn't have some
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ai or you know something like that you underperformed and and that's that's
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interesting and i
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don't know if you've seen that that thing about that the software companies are over
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the forest yes i've noticed i've noticed that this a
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software company is not going to become obsolete but getting their getting their
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products shunted
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aside because of AI, AI replacements.
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And your software companies have had a horrible time.
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And the other thing is you're getting to the point now where there's so many new
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entrants to the market that it's sort of diluting
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the trade a little bit.
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And people say, right, this is the new thing.
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And taking money out of a traditional, if there is such a thing, a traditional AI
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company, maybe a bit of that is happening.
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But also when you I had this conversation with a couple of chaps on a Thursday
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podcast.
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and I said there seems to be now a royalty of AI companies emerging.
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In other words, the AI equivalent of, say, Microsoft coming to the fore.
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And you think of NVIDIA.
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And so I always look at NVIDIA first on my tech board.
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And it's done nothing for a while.
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It went shooting up to 205.
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I think that was post-results.
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And it's now messing around at, what is it, about 180, something like that, Skalk,
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at the moment.
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It's really going nowhere.
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And I honestly believe that the amount of capex that's going into these companies
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that is consistently announced at
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their results presentations eventually is going to be a bit of a drag on those
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companies.
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And the easy money has been made by investors.
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So at best, the good ones go flat to slightly higher.
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At worst, they get replaced by newcomers.
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I don't know.
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It's just a simple analysis again.
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But I agree with you entirely.
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It's well worth watching what happens to the NASDAQ this year.
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Correct.
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I mean,
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you had a few points and really interesting ones about AI and software
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companies.
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Because you tend to think, and this way, the user got the same, that not all tech
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companies are created equal.
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You would think you've got a portfolio of great software companies.
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I'm not going to mention, again, names because there's so many.
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But if you just look at the S&P North American Software Index,
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this is the, let's call it major software.
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I mean, if somebody tells you, are you invested in tech?
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Yes, I'm invested in the S&P North American Software Index.
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That's my benchmark.
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When you look at the S&P 500 over the past 12 months, that's done close to 19%.
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That's until the 2nd of February.
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19% in dollar terms.
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Over the same period, this index did minus 10.2%.
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Again, look at the discrepancy.
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We're looking at close to 30% underperformances.
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You were invested in tech, but man, you weren't invested.
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Then secondly, you've got the likes of the NVIDIA.
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I was looking at upgrading one or two of my home,
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which I'm now talking to you on, my home PC, which I run my microphones and those
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kind of things off.
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Yes.
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And I went to my tech friend or tech specialist.
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and ask him we need to upgrade a few things on my my computer i need a bit more
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hard drive more space
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um and and maybe looking at a at a video card because maybe that's time to upgrade
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and this
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would look and when when when
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your mechanic or your doctor or any of those people go like or a sharpie and take
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a breath through their
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teeth that's the other one Ooh.
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I realized, okay, this is going to be big.
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And he went like, Scott, I mean, literally, October, he said September,
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October-ish, he wanted a quote for a specific hard drive.
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And he got a quote, and that quote was a thousand rand for that specific hard
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drive.
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And nobody should quote me.
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I may be using the wrong analogy.
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It could be an SSD or something like that.
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I'm still calling it a hard drive.
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But it was a thousand rand.
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He says, Skog, I kid you not, that exact same hard drive will cost you 3,000 Rand
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now.
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And that's the thing.
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There was such a massive, people, or at least, they're selling,
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there's such a massive demand for these hard drives because of cloud space,
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these cloud computers, which the AI will need to run.
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Also, you can't run AI without having a proper...
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video card or graphics card and that's just when the likes and the videos and
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those people i'm coming but what's going to be interesting when we
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see the result wait a second what are you doing you're making films at home or
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something i thought you were what are you using ai for why why do you
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you're not saying you need one of these video cards are you
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no no no i need i need video cards because if some things on on your computer tend
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when your computer
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starts running slower i've I actually found out back in the days when computers
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started running slow.
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I'll get the tech guy out and say, well, you just need more RAM or you need some
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more memory or something like that.
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You need a stronger computer.
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And then it's like, okay, get me a stronger computer.
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Nowadays, it's not just about the computer strength or, hey, now I'm going to sound
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CPU. It also needs to look at the GPU, which is the graphics side.
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But I'm not going to go into the IT side.
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What I'm going to get to is...
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And what I'm going to be focusing on when NVIDIA reports,
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because I think that's to a certain extent why we haven't seen any movement in NVIDIA
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since the last
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report.
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Because the one thing that stood out was the inventories.
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The inventories were showing an increase since the last time reported.
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Why are your inventories increasing when you're telling the whole world there's
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such a massive
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demand that there's not enough stock?
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for us to deliver and that's why my hard drive will go up from a thousand rand to
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three thousand rand i i think
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um i think we're sitting with something in in this let's call it global market that's
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that's also about to
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break that's the one thing i'm massively worried about on
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the i.t side that this this this called ai demand sort of created an artificial or or
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artificial, or sort of a manipulation of prices.
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Very good.
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Yes, it has run a bit too far.
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And the other thing about it is, just like Bitcoin, you say to someone, why are you
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buying Bitcoin?
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And they say, well, because it's going up.
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And it's the same thing with many investors when it comes to AI.
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No one really understands the deeper side of AI.
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I just saw one piece of, for example,
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legal software that has become obsolete because of AI analysis of legal matters.
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That was links to how you introduced this AI theme, you know, software companies
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coming under pressure.
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But there's a lot of misunderstanding.
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Same with cryptocurrencies.
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And we'll come to that in a second as well.
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It is the five o'clock shadow.
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We've got to look at the JSC.
20:04
Fish and chickens doing well today.
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Vodacom doing nothing as usual as its utility.
20:12
Give us a roundup of companies on the JSC that made announcements, if you've looked
20:18
at them, if you've had time.
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Yeah, I did.
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I did.
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I mean, and actually, I mean, chickens, you're referring to rainbow chickens.
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Yeah, solid set of results, or let's call it a trading statement,
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stating that the headline earnings per share is going to be up anything between
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69.46 cents to 76.5.
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Now this is massive numbers, we're looking at 95% or under 15%.
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Now,
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I think nobody should be focused too much on those major numbers because when you
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look at chickens,
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the major cost input is naturally the food.
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And when you look at the yellow maize prices, that was trading, well, it's
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literally trading at about,
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let's call it 65, 70% of the levels it was trading, let's call it last year,
21:08
this time around.
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So we've had a massive retracement in the food, so the input cost decreased.
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So it went from a perfect storm to a much better and a better environment.
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So that's just a great recovery.
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but also they did mention that
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the local demand for their products did increase as well.
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They call it robust demand.
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So that's looking good and that's a great, great...
21:35
Good because it's been such a dog.
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I mean, it really has.
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I haven't looked at it for quite a while, but I remember the days when you couldn't
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give away those shares.
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So nice to see that recovering.
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Sea Harvest also doing well.
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You don't need to go into that, but also nice to see that one after a trading
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update.
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Vodacom trading update.
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Gosh, I don't know.
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When I think of Vodacom, and I can't even be bothered to read the results, it sounds
22:01
nasty and dismissive, but it's really boring.
22:03
Yeah, I think we've had, it was Vodacom,
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and also RCL Foods.
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How can we put this politely?
22:16
It was a bitter, bitter, bitter update.
22:22
Because, yeah, they say they're really struggling with the sugar market.
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It's giving them gray hair.
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And that saw a major retracement in the share price of the trading update.
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They're really struggling.
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And they said that the sugar tariffs didn't adequately shield them in local
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market currently with
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these imports.
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So the Vodacom one is an interesting one, Lindsay.
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Yeah, it's...
22:51
It's interesting in the sense that it's also a company that's not really
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attracting my
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interest.
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I'm really worried.
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We've often had this conversation.
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They're selling a product, and not just Vodacom, I mean these telcos.
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They're selling a product in essence that people want for free.
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And I think and believe that eventually we'll get for free.
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I mean, that's just the harsh reality.
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I mean, they're selling things like...
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call, airtime, which people don't really often buy anymore,
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and they're selling data, which people want for free.
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And they get for free in certain instances, don't they?
23:33
Exactly, exactly, exactly.
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And then also, you're sitting in an environment where we're sitting with a few
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providers.
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I mean, in a smallish country like South Africa, compared to the world,
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we've got quite a few providers.
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The competition in that market, I think, is going to be a tough one.
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I said this is going to be sort of a sweet and sour conversation.
24:04
The sweet side is when we think of 2025,
24:09
we tend to be focused on, oh, it was the year for gold.
24:14
It was the year for the PGMs.
24:17
But when you look at the top 15...
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you tend to forget that MTN was in the top 15, Telcom was in the top 15,
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Vodacom was in the top 15.
24:28
So, yes, these companies did really, really well because they came from very,
24:34
very distressed and called it deep, deep value levels.
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And they just did the basics right, got a few things right,
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and that saw them...
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actually improved.
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When you look at the likes of Vodacom, they're still trading at a forward P of 13
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times.
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So they're not really expensive.
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And when you look at this, it's called a trading update from them,
25:00
it does sort of support why we've seen the recovery in the share price.
25:05
So it's quietly going about its business when everyone else is focused on what
25:12
we've been focused on for ages, and that is precious metals, other commodities,
25:14
and also artificial intelligence and other associated tech companies.
25:16
So well done.
25:17
to those telcos that have quietly, well, certainly not been on my radar at all, and
25:23
I must start looking at it again.
25:25
I mustn't be so myopic, Skull, and I blame you in a certain sense for this.
25:29
Exactly.
25:29
I'm always talking about gold.
25:31
I'm always talking about gold.
25:32
I never focus on the important stuff of the other JSC companies.
25:37
I just want to end off with a comment.
25:38
I think the one thing that stood out for me, and I've often said this,
25:43
there's selling a product which people don't want to pay for.
25:45
We've already said that.
25:47
And that's why when you look at the likes of I think it was David Shapiro today that
25:52
mentioned it.
25:53
When you look at the likes of a Pepco, they're selling products that people do
25:58
like.
25:59
They add in these telco products as well.
26:03
So the problem is with Vodacom is they're selling a product eventually people want
26:08
to get for free.
26:10
What are they going to focus on?
26:12
Now, this is where I actually like the trading up topic.
26:13
So I already mentioned that the financial services side within Vodacom is now
26:19
contributing
26:21
13% of the group's revenue.
26:23
It's showing you that those fintech type of products which… the likes of the
26:27
Vodacom's, the MTN's, even Telcom's offer is now starting to kick in.
26:33
Will it kick in quick enough while you've got a product that will eventually lose
26:39
its profit margins?
26:41
That'll be the big question.
26:43
As I mentioned, it's not a company that I own, and most probably not a company that
26:46
I will own anytime soon.
26:48
Scott, let's have a look at some numbers now.
26:50
The dollar round is 16.01.
26:52
The British pound against the round, 21.90.
26:54
The euro round, 18.90.
26:56
Euro dollar.
26:57
Again, they've cut off those last two numbers on my screen, but it's 1.18 and a
27:02
bit, let's call it.
27:04
Gold price now 49.56, which is up on the day, $17.
27:08
But as the JSC closes, on its lows of the day, more or less, because it was 5,050,
27:15
as I said,
27:17
about an hour ago now.
27:19
So it's fallen $100.
27:21
But we're used to that.
27:23
The platinum price is 2240, which is up 6.5%.
27:24
Well done.
27:25
Palladium 1791, which is up 5%.
27:28
Gong for that one as well.
27:30
Let's have a look at the other commodities.
27:32
Looking at that CRB index the other day, we were talking about the all-time record
27:36
high.
27:36
Got close to it.
27:37
Got to about 405, 406.
27:41
No, closer, 407 actually, a couple of days ago.
27:44
Now back down to 390.
27:46
The oil price, a lot to do with that.
27:48
Oil price now up 0.5% for West Texas at $63.54.
27:52
And the Brent crude oil price, $67.66, up 0.5%.
27:55
Copper is $5.98 per pound, and that's down 1.8%.
28:02
Suddenly started to fall, as gold has started to fall as well.
28:06
Silver, though, still up for $88.61 per barrel, up 4.2%.
28:12
OK, what else have we got here?
28:15
I want to go to the US 10-year Treasury bond yield, quietly doing its thing as I
28:21
told you last year.
28:23
Scalp 4.282% was 4.30 yesterday.
28:26
The South African 10-year bond just couldn't get through 8% today, 8.055 on
28:32
the close.
28:34
S&P 500 futures 69.32, down very slightly, reversing earlier gains.
28:39
And here's the one that has interested me, another call of ours, Scalp.
28:43
Bitcoin, 74,800, down another 4.3% today.
28:50
And it's now 40% lower than its peak in October.
28:54
So a proper bear market for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Doge, the whole lot.
28:59
Across the board, crypto is having a torrid time.
29:03
Sorry, Donald.
29:05
I won't get political about it, but I'd love to.
29:08
Do we buy when it gets back to $6,000 this time around?
29:13
It would be nice.
29:14
I mean, even I could probably afford to, you know, with a couple of mates to buy
29:20
one and just put it on the wall or something.
29:22
And people would say, what is that there?
29:24
Bit what?
29:26
I'd say Bitcoin.
29:28
That was a big thing when I was still a podcaster.
29:30
Obsolete now, of course.
29:32
Right.
29:34
Now, what else have we got?
29:36
Okay.
29:38
The moves on the JSC today.
29:40
I'll start with the uppers.
29:42
Sasol.
29:44
It was looking horrible a few days ago.
29:46
Now up 6% on the day.
29:48
114, round 75.
29:50
South 32, up 4.2%.
29:52
Anglo Gold, 4.2% as well.
29:54
Alphamin up 4.4%.
29:56
And Mondi coming in with a 4% gain.
29:58
We didn't talk about Sappy's numbers today, Skulk, but don't worry about that.
30:00
Process on the downside by 4.6%. Bytes a 4% loser.
30:02
NASPERS down 3.2%.
30:04
Italtile 3.2% as well.
30:07
And three and a third percent down is Sun.
30:09
Any others?
30:10
Scott?
30:12
No, not, not.
30:13
It's just, while you were talking about the gold price now retracing,
30:19
it's become sort of a common trend where you see the east in the morning.
30:24
They sort of push these precious metals upward.
30:28
And then you see as soon as the US starts opening, it starts dwindling downwards.
30:33
It's definitely, definitely some east and west.
30:37
competition here on trying to see who's going to keep the gold price and silver
30:44
price up and who's going to be smashing it down
30:46
with.
30:48
Yeah, it's crazy times.
30:50
But one of the things I'm not going to do, by the way, is predict anything else for
30:51
the rest of the year.
30:53
Not unless it's clear.
30:55
If you go to a drinks party or something, Skulk, this is my tip here.
30:59
And what happens at drinks parties is you get sort of groups of people, don't you?
31:02
You get three or four standing around talking nonsense.
31:05
They may be doctors, and then over there you've got the financial people like
31:09
yourself all talking.
31:11
If you make a joke and make people laugh uproariously, Skulk, just immediately,
31:15
Say,
31:17
I'm going to go to the bathroom and leave.
31:19
Don't try and make another joke.
31:21
It's the same with tipping markets.
31:23
I'm not picking.
31:24
You're not a comedian.
31:25
You're not a comedian.
31:27
You got lucky.
31:28
I'm not picking exactly.
31:29
I'm out of here.
31:31
Just like my gold call.
31:33
I'm going to take that tip.
31:36
Well, that's a funny one.
31:41
Skulklo is a portfolio manager at...
31:44
PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town and that was the five o'clock shadow.
31:48
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