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Chuck's Commentary - The Real Cost of Trump's Iran Gamble · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: use the code get the discap Hello Aaron, Welcome to
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  Speaker 1: the Thursday episode of The Chuck Podcast. Look, I've got
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  Speaker 1: a pretty meaty episode for you. My guest is Ian
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  Speaker 1: Bremer of their Eurasia Group. You know, he is a
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  Speaker 1: frequent guest of mind when it comes to geopolitical situations.
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  Speaker 1: I think he is the best sort of independent analyst
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  Speaker 1: out there, frankly around the globe, let alone in the
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  Speaker 1: United States known Ian a long time, and I think
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  Speaker 1: frankly because of that, it can become an even more
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  Speaker 1: useful conversation. Look, we spend a lot of time in
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  Speaker 1: the Middle East, but we don't just sit there and
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  Speaker 1: talk about that. In fact, I have a little bit
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  Speaker 1: more of a preview of what he has to say
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  Speaker 1: before we get to the interview. So that's the centerpiece here,
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  Speaker 1: and frankly it is you know, I think that's where
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  Speaker 1: I want to focus focus this conversation this today and
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  Speaker 1: for the weekend. It's a good one to sort of
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  Speaker 1: sit and stew in, which is just the There's a
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  Speaker 1: lot of fallout from this, and I think that's the
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  Speaker 1: question is how, you know, how is history going to
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  Speaker 1: characterize this confrontation with Iran? Is it a loss? It
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  Speaker 1: is not a victory. Right, There is no way you
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  Speaker 1: can describe what the United States and Israel did with
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  Speaker 1: Iran as a victory. But I accept the premise you
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  Speaker 1: can't yet call it a failure. Right. It certainly doesn't
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  Speaker 1: look like this is going to end in a better
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  Speaker 1: place than where we began. In many ways. We're in
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  Speaker 1: a worse place than where we began in this sense.
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  Speaker 1: But it is not going to ever be seen as
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  Speaker 1: a victory at best. At best, it may serve to
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  Speaker 1: turn out as a as a as an opportunity to
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  Speaker 1: reset the Middle East, and maybe the reset that will
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  Speaker 1: be better than the current situation now, but I'm highly
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  Speaker 1: skeptical of that as well. I think that the biggest
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  Speaker 1: thing that America's failure here to win this confrontation with Iran,
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  Speaker 1: and I think that's the fairest way to America did
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  Speaker 1: not win. And and again we're we're we're in World
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  Speaker 1: Cup season, So I guess you could say they salvaged
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  Speaker 1: a tie here, but that's that's the best case scenario.
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  Speaker 1: We've not been eliminated from competition. But what the United
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  Speaker 1: States did signal was a bit of a retreat from
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  Speaker 1: being the stable organizing force of the Middle East, if
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  Speaker 1: you're the UAE, can you rely on the United States
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  Speaker 1: as your security blanket? If you're Saudi Arabia, if you're
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  Speaker 1: cutter frankly, if you're Israel. So you know when you
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  Speaker 1: introduce doubt, right, that you know we've lost something. And
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  Speaker 1: arguably this is now the third region in the world
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  Speaker 1: where Presidents Trump's policies have and actions have created splinters, right,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: and we've sort of fragmented the world, and we've fragmented
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: decision making right. Europe is not necessarily fragmented. They're very united,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: that's good news. And they're trying to figure out can
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: they and I can't really operate without the United States,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: but they're trying to figure out how they can at
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: least be less dependent on the United States. I think
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: you have the Asian democracies not realizing that they need
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: the United States too. They're not ready to be independent
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  Speaker 1: from the United States on security or on the economy.
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  Speaker 1: But there's certainly some concern about just how how stable
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  Speaker 1: stable is the wrong word. I think, just how much
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  Speaker 1: will there will be in any leadership in the United
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  Speaker 1: States to be there for Asian democracies and to check
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  Speaker 1: what they perceive as a threat to them from China.
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  Speaker 1: Probably the one place where you can say Donald trump
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  Speaker 1: Is foreign policy has had more gains than losses is
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  Speaker 1: in the western hemisphere, not North America, but frankly in
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  Speaker 1: Central and South America, where he certainly is creating relationships
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  Speaker 1: that seem to be not just bending the hemisphere a
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  Speaker 1: bit to as well, but certainly creating bringing countries closer
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  Speaker 1: to the United States. Right in every other region, his
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: actions have been pushing countries away from the United States.
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  Speaker 1: Maybe they don't want to be pushed away, but they
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  Speaker 1: feel like they have no other choice. And that's the
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  Speaker 1: And what he's going to do is leave a complete
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  Speaker 1: and mess for the next president to clean up. And
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  Speaker 1: you're not gonna be able to clean up right away.
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  Speaker 1: You're gonna have to deal with near turbine challenges and
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  Speaker 1: you're going to have to deal with and so this
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  Speaker 1: is this is something that's going to take a generation
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  Speaker 1: to potentially put back together. But there's no doubt this
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  Speaker 1: has been a consequential shattering of America's form policy. And yes,
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  Speaker 1: you can we can sit here and say, well, that
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  Speaker 1: wasn't so bad, But the problem is there's a lot
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  Speaker 1: of others that is bad here. But I do think
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: we I want to sort of give a second draft,
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  Speaker 1: if you will, of sort of the interpretation of Trump's
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  Speaker 1: impact on American form policy, because there's a comfortable story
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  Speaker 1: about Donald Trump and the world that gets told, and
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  Speaker 1: it is wraw, right, And the story is that he's
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  Speaker 1: simply an isolationist, that America first means America pulls back
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  Speaker 1: packs up and comes home. That isn't what's happening, right,
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  Speaker 1: because if you look at the map of the last
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  Speaker 1: six months, this is not a country withdrawing from the world.
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  Speaker 1: So that's not what he's done, right, This is they're
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  Speaker 1: certainly in You know, it may be that Jade Vance
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  Speaker 1: is a real isolationist, but Donald Trump isn't what you
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  Speaker 1: see instead, Right, look at the last six months. You
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: see a country that invaded Venezuela, threatened to a next Greenland,
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  Speaker 1: bombed around and pick trade fights on five continents. Right.
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  Speaker 1: That's not a retreat if you're a true isolation lest
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  Speaker 1: you just walk away. So it's hyperactivity. He hasn't left
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  Speaker 1: the world, but I think the question is what has
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  Speaker 1: he left. Here's the pattern that I see, and once
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  Speaker 1: you see it, I think you won't be able to
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  Speaker 1: unsee it either. What he has done is withdrawn America
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  Speaker 1: from everything in the world that Americans cannot see, right,
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  Speaker 1: And he's doubled down on everything that we can see
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  Speaker 1: or that is obvious in our face. Right. The organizing
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  Speaker 1: principle is not some grand strategy. There's no strategic organizing principle.
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  Speaker 1: It isn't even ideological. It's whether a foreign policy produces
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  Speaker 1: something a voter back home can watch. Right. Trump very
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  Speaker 1: much view use foreign policy through the lens of domestic policy,
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  Speaker 1: pure and simple. Right, He's behaving the way American voters behave.
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  Speaker 1: We've been counting on our presidents not to that. You know.
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  Speaker 1: It's true. Americans don't vote on foreign policy, and if
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  Speaker 1: they ever do, they're just simply it's usually a retreat
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  Speaker 1: of some sort. It's not our business. Get out right,
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  Speaker 1: it is. It is not. And if you want to
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  Speaker 1: keep America's power and prestige, you need a president frankly
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  Speaker 1: that isn't worried about the domestic impact of foreign policy decisions.
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  Speaker 1: But of course that's not Donald Trump. And if and
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  Speaker 1: that's the the I think the only through line here
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  Speaker 1: is that he his foreign policy, he views through the
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  Speaker 1: prism of what will a voter back home say. So,
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  Speaker 1: let's start with what he cut right in January, he
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  Speaker 1: pulled the United States out of sixty six international organizations
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  Speaker 1: in a single stroke. We formerly left the World Health
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  Speaker 1: Organization that we turned around and floated, spending two billion
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  Speaker 1: dollars a year to rebuild the disease surveillance we used
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  Speaker 1: to get from it for a fraction of that price, right,
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  Speaker 1: And now we've got this abollat challenge that we can't
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  Speaker 1: that the world is struggling to get its arms around
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  Speaker 1: because the United States is retreated. He shut down USAID,
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  Speaker 1: He let the last nuclear arms controlled treaty with Russia
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  Speaker 1: drift towards expiration with nothing to replace it. And I
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  Speaker 1: got a lot more to say about Putin and Newts
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: in a minute. Here. The climate frameworks, the development a,
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  Speaker 1: the UN agencies, treaty architecture, all of it gone or gutted.
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  Speaker 1: And what do all those things have in common? Not
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  Speaker 1: one of them has a domestic constituency. If anything, there's
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  Speaker 1: an anti constituency to it, right, there's an anti vaxed
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: constituency with the conspiracy theories of it. The World Health
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: organizations for instance, nobody in Wisconsin feels the World Health
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  Speaker 1: Organization always they think they don't trust me. You will
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  Speaker 1: when these diseases make it to our shores, but they don't.
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  Speaker 1: At the moment, nobody's marching for an arms controlled treaty
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  Speaker 1: with the Russians. These are the diffuse, slow, invisible goods,
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  Speaker 1: the things that pay off over decades and never show
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: up on television. So Trump discarded them first. Now look
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  Speaker 1: at what he's in, and every single one comes with
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  Speaker 1: a built in audience here at home. Venezuela, he invaded,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: captured Maduro and flew him to New York to stand trial.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Huge constituency for him in South Florida. Immigration, Fennyl and
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: a Purp walk all in one night, Greenland and the
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Panama Canal territorial muscle wrapped in a China store, oran Ah,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: the evangelical base, the pro Israel coalition, and gas prices
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: all at once, and the moment had threatened to curdle
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: into a forever war with no upside at home. That's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: when he reached out for a deal. Tariffs, the entire
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: economic nationalism narrative in one instrument right, and of course
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the biggest tell of all is Ukraine. When he set
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: a deadline to end that war, it wasn't pegged to
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: anything actually happening on the battlefield. Zelensky set it out out.
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  Speaker 1: The timeline was built around our midterms. Trump wanted to
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: form policy when in hand before he pivoted to November.
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  Speaker 1: The wars get picked up and put down according to
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: when a victory is useful here at home. Now, you
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: might say, hey, that's smart politics. You know you shouldn't.
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  Speaker 1: You should always be mindful of your of your current
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  Speaker 1: near term politics. But it's terrible leadership for those that
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  Speaker 1: care about democracy and freedom around the world. But here's
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  Speaker 1: the part that also should bother you. It's and it's
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  Speaker 1: at the heart of what I want to get into today.
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  Speaker 1: The thing he's actually dismantling isn't a charity that the
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: United States was running for the world. It's the source
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: of American For seventy five years. We wanted Europe and
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: democratic Asia and frankly the Middle East dependent on us.
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  Speaker 1: That was the design. It was not an accident. NATO's
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  Speaker 1: first Secretary General said the alliance existed to keep the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down, and
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: that last part was the whole point. We helped right
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Japan a constitution that made it lean on the United States.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: We kept wartime command of South Korea's military inside an
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: American structure. We held a nuclear umbrella over Germany, Japan,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: and Korea precisely so they would never feel the need
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to build bombs of their own. And why do we
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: do all that? Because dependence brought us control. This is
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: something you'd think of. Donald Trump would understand. He loves
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: a good dependency. Trust me, A dependent ally doesn't go
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: to war without our say so, it doesn't cut its
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: own deal with Beijing, it doesn't run a foreign policy
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: that crosses ours. That defense bill we supposedly got fleeced
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: on for decades, that was the subscription fee for a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: controlling interest in the security of half of the developed world.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: It was the cheapest empire in history. There's never been
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: a more America first arrangement than a room full of
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: allies who couldn't afford to tell us now. It always
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: struck me weird that the phrase America first is used
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: for disengaging, when actually what we did over the last
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  Speaker 1: seventy five years was the most America first thing we
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: could have ever created. So here's the irony that out
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: of sting. If we were truly America verbs, if you
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: actually wanted an American interest to come first everywhere, every time,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: then that dependency was the crown jewel. It's the whole game.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: You guard it, you deepen it, you make them need
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: you more, not less. Pursuing that dependency ruthlessly is what
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: America first looks like when somebody actually means it. And
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump did the exact opposite. He took a wrecking
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: ball to all of it. He hasn't broken all of
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: it yet, but he's breaking a lot of it. And
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: when he tells Europe that an oil crisis in the
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: golf is quote, not our war, when he treats the
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: guarantee itself as unreliable, he doesn't make allies pay up
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: and fall in line. He makes them do the one
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: thing we spend three generations preventing, stand on their own.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: And a Europe that can defend itself is a Europe
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: that no longer needs our permission. A Japan or a
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Korea that stops trusting our umbrella is a Japan or
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: a Korea that starts thinking about its own bomb. And
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: every one of those outcomes is worse for American interests
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: than the dependence ever was. Were the Allies overreliant? Of
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: course they were. That was a feature, not a bug.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: But if you wanted to fix that and keep your leverage,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: you make them. You make the dependent pay more rent.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: You don't burn down the building. He's refunding the freeloaders
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: and handing them the keys and then calling it a win.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: And if you want to watch all of this happen
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: in real time, not seventy five years of design, but
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: in a single month, just look at this deal he
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: cut with Iran. Because we ran the play on two
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: of our closest partners at once from opposite directions. Israel
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: went into a regime chane war alongside us. We bombed
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: around together, we killed Kameni together. And then the moment
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Washington wanted out, we negotiated the terms over Jerusalem's head.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: The Israelis weren't even allowed to see the draft before
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: the siding. I call the shots, the president says, he
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: does it. That's how you talk to a client, not
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: an ally. The Golf States got the mirror image. They
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: didn't ask for this war. We pressed them to join it.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Although there was probably some that were hoping we'd be
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: successful with it. They absorbed exactly the catastrophe they warned
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: us about Iranian missiles on their refineries and their cities.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: The straight choked off their economies, taking the hit, and
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: then they watched us, in the words of one Saudi analyst,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: prioritize optics over the Gulf realities that they were living in.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: We cut a fast deal that left Tehran emboldened and
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: claiming victory, handed it leverage over the very waterway their
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: oil depends upon, and brushed their concerns aside one more time.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So watch what they're already doing about it. The UE
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: walked out of OPEC, asked Washington for a dollar lifeline,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: put Israeli air defense batteries on its own soil, and
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: shut its embassy in Tehran. The Saudi's kept a private
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: channel open to Ron the entire time. That is not
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: the behavior of allies who trust the American umbrella. That
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: is the behavior of allies who started building their own
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: defense infrastructure. That's three now Europe, Democratic Asia, and now
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: the Gulf and Israel, three different sets of the closest
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: friends this country has, all drawing the identical conclusion in
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: the same twelve months. We cannot count on the Americans.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: That's not a retrenchment. Retrenchment is a strategy. This is
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the liquidation of the one asset. It took us seventy
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: five years to build the belief that we would be there. Look,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump knows a lot about bankruptcies, and he has
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: now bankrupt American exceptionalism. So the real story of America
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: first isn't retreat. It's a country that traded oversight of
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: its own interest for a grievance that pulls well and
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: in the bargain taught every ally it has on every
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: continent to start planning for a world without reliance on
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: the United States. It's the collapse of the old line
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: where politics stopped at the water's edge, and the conversion
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: of the entire planet into one more thing to perform
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: for the people back home. So here's what I keep
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: coming back to. So we have a security system like
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: the one we spent three generations building, does its most
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: important work invisibly, not in the wars we win, but
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: in the wars that never start, the bombs that never
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: get built or dropped, the crises that are strangled in
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the crib that never start. You never see what it's
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: buying you. You only see what it costs, which is
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: what makes taking a reckon ball to all of this
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: so reckless. Trump is knocked down America's global security system,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: the alliances, the institutions, the guarantees, and the honest truth
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: is we have no idea how exposed that leaves us.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: The bill doesn't come today, it comes the next time.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Something we used to be able to head off doesn't
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: get headed off. Maybe that's a bola. I sure hope
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: this one doesn't hit us here, But that's that's the
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: type of things. Or how about the screw worm that's
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: suddenly screwing up our cattle. It's these little things. It's
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the silent things. But by then the machine that would
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: have stopped at all is rubble. So that's the question
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to leave hanging in the air at the moment,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: not whether America walked away from the world. It didn't
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: walk away from the world. The question is how vulnerable
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: we just made ourselves and the world. And the frightening
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: part of this answer is that nobody can tell you
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: we tore the thing down before we ever measured what
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: was holding it back right, the famous Chester in Chesterden's fence.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: We just knocked it down, not asking the question of
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: why was the fence the first place. Now, look, there
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: is there's three big headlines I want you to take
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: away from my conversation with Ian Bremmer. Number one is
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: understanding the new Middle East. It is splintering. There are
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: going to be at least three factions. The Uranians are
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: going to be a faction. Ue in Israel is going
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: to be a faction, and the Saudis in Egypt. And
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a third faction here. And that's you know,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: that's going to be. Yes, the UAE and Israel may
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: be closer to the United States than they than they
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: ever have been. They have in some ways. They're they're
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: they're two all in to to do anything else. The
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Saudis are already hedge and bets right. They want they're
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: going to be China's best friend, and they want to
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: keep the United States an important client as well. And
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: of course the Saudis help is he'll remind you finance
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: the nuclear program that the Pakistani's have. Saudis already kind
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: of have their own nuclear umbrella. They hedge that bet
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: so what you're seeing there. You know, good news is
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: that fracturing hasn't taken place inside Europe yet. That was
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: something we were all concerned about. But in some ways
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: this is the Putin's the Ukraine's success. Putin's erraticism has
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: helped keep Europe united, and I would argue that democratic
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Asia right now still there's just too much reliance on
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the United States. And you're going to hear him Ian
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: make that case as well. But don't miss what he
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: asked to say about North Korea versus Russia. Who is
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the more unpredictable rogue head, rogue of rogue head of
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: state at the moment. It's not the person you're thinking.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: It's much scarier than that. And that's where we end
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: our conversation. As for Donald Trump, he's going to try
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: to memory hold around. We know this, and he's going
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to turn his focus to Cuba, and politically it's probably
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: a huge benefit to Marko Rubio. I mean, this is
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: the small I almost feel I almost feel guilty talking
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: quickly about the domestic political fallout here. What does it
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: mean inside the Republican Party? Look? Jd Vance is holding
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a turd sandwich. He is he has been punished, and
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: because this is not a good thing for him to
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: be out there having to sell he is selling a
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: shit sandwich that he doesn't know how to sell. He's
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: not very trusted on the world stage. There's a lot
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: of skepticism of him, and Trump won't care if Vance
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: takes all the arrows. In fact, it's a design, that's
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: the feature. It's not a bug. Marco Rubio's Homer Simpson
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: into the Bush's disappearing act is also a feature, not
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: a bug. And you will suddenly see Marco Rubio come
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: back and be front and center when Cuba is suddenly
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: front and center. Because one thing we do know about
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is that is is ass Ian Bremer put
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: it so well, he said, use the Kennedy Center naming
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: thing as sort of a you know, he doesn't want
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: anybody to see the bad stuff. He wants to memory
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: hole are He doesn't want you to see his name
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: coming off of the building of the Kennedy Center. And
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: how is he going to memory hole aroun. He's going
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: to desperately want a victory in Tuba because that has
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: a domestic political audience. That will be the next shinty
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: metal object. So does it happen this summer, this fall,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: it probably happens before the midterms, and it is you know,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: among the ink there is probably is. My old friend
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: Tom bro Brokew used to say about campaign seasons is
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: that the unforeseen will happen. He had this little metaphor
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: used to go the UFO. The unforeseen will occur was
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: his way of using And I think the f is foreseen. Eh,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: I always thought it was. I thought he stretched that one.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: But the larger point was really important here. There's always
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: a few things we don't expect that have huge impacts
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: on the campaign. Sometimes you call him October surprises and
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: all those things, but they don't always happen now in October.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: And the two wild cards before November that are in
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's hands, well, the one wild card that's in
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's hands, well they're two wild guys. One is
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: his health. This is I mean my word, and I
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: think the feeding frenzy of those that sort of get
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: excited about pointing out his declining health are only going
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: to you know, play to the algorithms there. In the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: same way the right wing you know, obsessed over the
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Biden stuff in order to to sort of make fetch happen?
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: The left and Trump's opponents are going to be doing
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the same thing, and he is just providing more and more, ammo.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I mean he does not look well. Eighty year olds
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: don't travel well. I mean, this is just you know,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: every So his declining health is a huge wildcard for
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: these mid terms. But the other is going to be
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: the takeover of Cuba. What does it look like? Is
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: it clean? Is it messy? How grifty? Is it right
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: if we do get some form of control? And is
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: it really sort of a takeover that's more out of
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: bribery and it's sort of like the Castros participate in
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: it and you know, take the payoff in order to
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: give him the give him the glory he's so desperate for.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Because that's the thing here, what Trump is desperate for
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: as as the end is near, right, he knows the
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: end is near. And yes, I'm referring not just to
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: his political career. He is desperate for something that makes
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: him historic, beyond his personality, because about the only thing
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: that makes him historic is that his personality has greaped
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: all sorts of havoc on our society. But it hasn't
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: really done anything to make America great again, being able
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: to do something expand the map of the United States. Right,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: that was his desperation for green or with this with Cuba.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: He wants to He wants something so that the history
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: books have to mention his name in a positive way.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: And I think that that desperation is going to lead
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: to a huge, huge aggression and trying to make the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Cuba thing happen, especially in the face of what is
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: a colossal failure with Iran. Somehow he took a situation
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: with Iran and somehow made it worse and somehow handed
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: them more leverage. It's a disaster by any definition. So
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: how do you quickly memory hold it? See if you
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: can find, you know, find an easier entity to pick
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: on and bully, And the Cubans are probably an easier
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: entity to pick on and bully than the Iranians, as
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: he's found out the hard way. All Right, with that,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: let me speak of a break and when we come back,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: a fascinating conversation with Ian Bremmer, still on a huge
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: high over the next win. The biggest stage in world
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: soccer is here, and every goal changes everything. And now
• 27:09
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• 27:12
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• 27:17
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• 27:21
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• 27:25
  Speaker 1: you have to do is turn on your token. So
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: what does that mean if you're like me and you're
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: just coming to soccer because we're in the middle of
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: this big event, and yeah, you're gonna jump on a bandwagon,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I'm jumping on the obvious bandwagon. It's Team
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: USA for me, and I enjoyed what four to one. Look,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: some of us snarky sports fans would sometimes like to complain, Oh,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: there's not enough scoring in soccer. Well man, the first
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: half of that match against Paraguay, there's a lot of scoring.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Three counted one that didn't. And look, I'm gonna be honest,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: it's they're raising the bar. They're raising expectations for me.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: So Australia beat Turkey two to nothing, US beat Paraguay
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: four to one. Now Australia and the US meet this Friday,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: and there's look, there's only one way I'm gonna bet.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be on you on Team USA. And the
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: best part, by the way, of the US playing Australia
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: is that, you know, for all of us casual bandwagon
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: fans who get mocked by our serious football friends for
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: calling it soccer, Well, guess what, so does Australia, So
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: we can actually America is actually playing a team that
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: also caused soccer. So this might be the only actual
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: soccer match on both sides of the pitch. I'm learning
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: here right from the opening whistle to the final kick.
• 29:02
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• 30:06
  Speaker 1: All right, let's do a little last chuck. And by
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: the way, I normally don't like to advertise this, but
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I have. You may see there's a slightly different backdrop.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I am at a different home base. Yes, I like
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: to spend a couple months a year in Florida when
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: I have an opportunity. I am back and forth, so
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you never know where I'm going to be in any
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: given second. So I don't want you to presume anything.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: And I'll be going uh in some ways. You'll see
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: me with my my Arlington, Virginian backdrop or my or
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: my my uh my Northwest Florida backdrop. Here. You know,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: if I'm in Florida, that's gonna be more football references
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: more directly behind my head. And yes, that is a
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Johnson sign. You never say Miami helmet the only one.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: All right, So with that, let me take a bunch
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: of questions. First question comes from Ray and he writes, hey,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: love your inside and honesty, and if Democrats were to
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: win major and move to impeach and convict Trump. Could
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: that actually have political consequences heading into twenty twenty eight?
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Could it, for example, give someone like JD. Vancey heads Well, Ray, look,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: you're obviously hinting at the concern that plenty of Democrats
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: have in in whether the obsession with making Trump pay
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: in some form on accountability and accelerating it, you know,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: in some form or believing that that's the voter mandate
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: if you will, could boomerang right. And you know, if
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: you look back, House Republicans even after they got their
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: assets handed to them in the ninety eight midterms, and
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: when I say handed to them, basically it was the
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: best performing six year rich midterm incumbent president it ever had.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: And it was because they the public was basically saying,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: get off of this impeachment stuff. We don't approve of
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: his behavior in his personal life, but we don't want
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: to see him out of office. Go focus on something else,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: and they doubled down and did it. Anyway, Now you
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: could say, well, they won the presidency in two thousands,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: So was it really a net negative? I actually think
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: it was the way they did that they strengthened the
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party it is why al Gore won the popular vote,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: and it is why Democrats picked up four senates. So no,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: I don't, in fact, I think that that. You know
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: that in many ways, all of that did hold the
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Republican Party back in two thousand. Now, I don't know if,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: if you know, they want to ever believe that. So
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: I think that is something. Look, I could tell you
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: this when I when you put together two strategists, democratic
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: strategists whose goal is to win a majority for the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: president's here Republican strategist whose job is to win a
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: majority for the president. You asked them what would help
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: your cause? The Democratic strategy would say, don't do impeachment,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: and the Republican strategists would say, please do impeachment. That's
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: the conventional wisdom. Now, I'll throw a few scenarios at
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: you that says, well, you know, if the voters give
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: the Democrats massive majorities nineteen seventy four like sort of
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: reactions to this where even Bob Dole came within a
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: point of losing his Senate s back in nineteen seventy four.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: If you, if you know, let me paint this scenario
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: where I think actually the I could argue the voters
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: have given the Democrats a mandate to impeach and convict
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: him fifty House seats, ten Senate seats. Now, these are
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: totally unrealistic and the only way they would happen is
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: if large majorities were so fed up they said you
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: got to do something. That's the only scenario. So if
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: the voters demand it, And this, to me, it gets
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: back to what I think, and it's why what Letitia
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: James did in New York, what Fanny Willis did in
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: Atlanta strengthen Trump, it did not waken him, because ultimately,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the when the voters decide he should be punished, then
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: then that's then. Let the voters decide. And to me,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: if the voters decide to hand the Democrats massive majorities
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: their sen they're telling you get rid of this present.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: But if you're staring at a country that's still even
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: a fifty two, you know, fifty three percent majority, say hey,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: give the Democrats the power here. That is not a
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: mandate to just throw Trump out of office. It's a
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: mandate to check him while in office. Right, there's to me,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: two distinct messages there. So I think if you pursue
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: impeachment after winning narrow majorities, it's likely a net negative.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: But I'm not going to sit here and say that
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: there's never a scenario where that wouldn't be the case,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: but it would. Again, this should be voter driven. And
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: in this case, if you're looking for voter sending you
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: a message to do impeachment, it would be you know,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: winning congression, winning three congressional seats in Kentucky, for instance,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: winning Senate races in Kansas, Mississippi, Texas, and Florida. Okay,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: you know that's the type of election results. To me,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that would that would tell me that you could actually
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: claim there might be a voter mandate for this. Needless
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: to say, I don't quite I don't quite see it
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: that way, all right. Next question comes from Jeremiah, and
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: he writes, Hey, longtime listener, first time asker, as someone
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: who's followed Republican politics closely in the past, I'm trying
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: to understand how presidential war power seemed to operate in practice.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: How is it that a president can continue a military
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: conflict even after the war powers deadline and congressional efforts
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: to limit it. Is this a legal loophole or more
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: about how the system is actually enforced. Well, Jeremiah, I look,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: the issue is that the War Powers Act, it's unclear
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: how constitutional it is, right, every presidential administration has questioned
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: the constitutionality of it. That's number one. So that's why
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: there's a little bit. Now, Congress does have real leverage,
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: but that leverage is very tough to actually politically pull off,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: and that is funding or defunding a military action which
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: politically turns into who they won't even feed or pay
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: the troops in order to make us stop this war, right,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: And you could see how quickly that could get weaponized
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: and polarized, you know. So I think that's the issue here,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: is that this issue over over the power of declaring war,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the power of conducting war, and the power of funding war, right,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: is sort of all blurry lines between the executive and
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the legislative. And you won't see the judicial branch on this.
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: You know, this is something that gets referred to as
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: a political question by the courts, meaning it's a branch dispute,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: and they don't want to truly be involved in branch
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: disputes per se. But that's the issue, right, The War
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Powers Act was passed, but it was you know, it's
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: one of those. It's in law on paper, but it
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: has never really been challenged sized is. It is essentially
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: served as a promisory note. And so Congress passed it
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: and the you know, after Vietnam, in the hopes that
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: maybe president you know, if it's signed in the law,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: presidents would at least abide by the the you know,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: generally abide by the sixty day rule, thirty day rule,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: this or that. But it hasn't. Obviously, it's not an
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: actual check. What it does is, at best, it keeps
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the administration normally, this one doesn't do it, but it
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: keeps the administration more tightly intertwined with Congress on the
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: information front. Right, they're more likely to inform the so
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: called gang of eight. And in this case, the gang
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: of eight in Congress refers to the chair and vice
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: chairs of the of the two intelligence committees. So that's four,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: that's four of your eight Senate Intel House Intel chair
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: and vice chair. Right. So there's four, and then the
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: other four are the speaker, ranking member of the minority party,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Senate majority leader, and Senate Minority leader. That's your so
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: called gang of eight. And you know that is something
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: that you know, Bush Jen Obama and Clinton, we're all
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: more respectful of at least keeping those eight people informed.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: This president is paranoid about leaks, always likes to politicize
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: everything they do, and doesn't trust anybody. You know, they
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: assume everybody will behave like they do. So if they're
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: going to politicize something, they assume their opponents will take
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: the same thing and politicize it back, so it becomes this.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: So that's how they sort of talk themselves into not
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: even letting Congress knowing what they're up to. Like the
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: War Powers Act declares, so at best you can hope
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: for a court showdown here. But you know, unless unless
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: you have a supermajority in Congress on the same side
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: on this, because any check could get veto, they could
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: pass this, he could veto it. You're gonna have a
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: supermajority override it in these polarizing times, right unlikely? You know,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: only if the president is seem as a runaway rogue leader,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I think would you be able to find a supermajority
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: in Congress to deal with this. So the bottom line
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: is that the War Powers Act is toothless. And this
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: is you know, this has been a hallmark of the
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Trump era, He's his behavior has done a good job
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: of showing us what norms need codifying and what laws
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: need teeth. And I think the War Powers Act is
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: one that needs teeth, that's for sure. I forgot your ps.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: Jeremih said, by football always keeping expectations in check. Man,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: I have to tell you, I don't understand. And I
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: think my guess is I still think BYU is going
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: to be a winner in this new nil world. And
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: you know, we saw it with the basketball side. You
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: had an engaged owner of the Utah Jazz who's also
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: a BYU alum, who decided to help make sure Devansav
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: became a Utah guy became a BYU guy. Right, So
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: the opportunity is there for BYU football to benefit. I mean,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: the BYU alum alumni network is very wealthy and very
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: devoted to that university. And so I am I am
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: expecting a big leap from BYU over the next five
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: years because the opportunity is there, and we know and
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: do you have the resources? The resources exist, you know,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: and you know it all starts with them and the
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: other built in advantage, right, especially with those that are
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: are are Mormon. You missions. You end up with grown
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: adults on your football team, and that is an advantage
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: you know, older teams, Just ask Indiana. Older teams have
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: an advantage in college football. So I I do for
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: what it's worth, Jeremiah, believe that there's a lot of
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: opportunity here for b wife football. Two. Take a take
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: a leap. It sounds like what's needed is somebody to
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: be the guy. Right, there's like a Cody Campbell down
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: in in in Texas Tech. You've got the the Moss
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: brothers or the guys behind the big the big money
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: at the University of Miami and some of these there,
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: there's all these you know, maybe it's the Romneys, maybe
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: it's Uh, maybe it's the Maybe it's Tag. Tag's a
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: little bit more engaged in the sports world than met is.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: But I do think the opportunities are maybe it's the
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: huntsman's we shall say, all right, Sarab from Pune, India, Right,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: this is my not my first overseas question, but first
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: one from India. I believe he could uh saw Rob
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: and I apologize in advance if I blundered the pronunciation
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: of your name. Regular listen second time, asked Chuck participantcy
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and I've missed this. How can the broader media ecosystem, traditional, independent,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: better and sure verified information is what gets amplified without
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: limiting free expression. Also, what would happen if more independence
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: or third party candidates were elected in the United States?
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Could that realistically shift us toward a more coalition driven system? Well,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: sirob I, I do believe we could have a coalition
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: driven system, not necessarily a parliamentary system, but you know,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: this is one of those You could build the system,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: the candidates aren't going to come. You kind of need
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: the candidates to happen and then they'll build the system.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Now be as pretty transparent. Here, I'm working with a
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: group of people that are hoping to build a folkrum system.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: If you will create a coalition, you may get elected
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: as a deef or an R. You may not even
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: get elected as an independent, but create sort of a
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: network of independent driven Democrats, independent driven Republicans, and actual
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: independent independent elected officials who band together to ensure certain
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: governing structures exist. Right, whether it's you know, making sure
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: that a one party can't deny a bill even getting
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: a vote on the floor of Congress, which the way
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the House works. You know, without these so called distric
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: charge petitions and finding a will of the majority, you
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: can sometimes see bills that have majority support, but because
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: it's on both sides of the aisle, the majority party
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: decides they don't want to they don't want to buy
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: partisan bill to succeed, or they don't think they'll have
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: control and they won't allow it a vote on the floor.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: So the point is is that how can you know
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the duopoly has hijacked government? These are private institutions that
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: have entrenched their power within the system that has to
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: be extracted from the system so that it can function
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: the way it was intended to be functioning. I mean,
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: the irony is that our founders basically wrote, wrote, a
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: built a system that was intended for coalition politics, right,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: and then the two party system developed and it we
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: had for a long time. It's still functioned as coalition politics. Right.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: The umbrella of the Democrats. There was ideological diverse within
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: the Democrats, and there was an umbrella on Republicans. There's
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: ideological diversity among the Republicans as both of those parties
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: have purified themselves and pushed out essentially those that are
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: that were less devout Democrats or devout Republicans out of
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: the parties and push them into this growing independent space
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: that we've seen. I think it is certainly put a
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: spotlight on this, on this need that that we have
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: now to to sort of we we we we are.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: We are not buying the consent. You know, we're we're
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: supposed to be. We're supposed to be, We're supposed to
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: consent to being governed here. But the majority is not
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: consented to this type of governance. Right, We've had minority
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: consent that has given government majority power. And that's what's
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: broken here, and that's what we have to sort of recalibrate.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: But I don't think it's something structural that you can
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: build and then hope candidates fill it. I think you've
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: got to buy the candidates that basically are willing to
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: break up the duopoly systems that have been there. Now,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: your second question was in the verified information. You know,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: this is a much harder issue. You know, over the
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: last over the last seventy two hours, I have been
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: less comfortable using, for instance, the Iranian leak on what's
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: in the deal. And if you listen to my reporting
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: and my monologue of the last couple of days, I've
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: not leaned on the Iranian reporting. I've instead reported on
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: what I can see right, and what I can see
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: is that the Americans are not The Americans are avoiding
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: giving details, allowing the Iranians to fill the vacuum. And
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the question is why is this government allowing the Iranians
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: to fill the vacuum here it's getting more and more
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: credibility and so but you do raise an important point,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: and I think that that look, trust is built right
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: now in this system. Trust has built on one viewer
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: at a time. That's the way I view it. I
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: can tell you I'm giving you the best information that
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: in my experience that I can gather and that I
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: can deliver and when you know, when I and frankly
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: you know, I'll let you know. And for instance, that
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: BBC report that I highlighted about the Russians being behind
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: this Islamophobia polarization attack that they tried to create and
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: they're targeting the Prime Minister of the UK. You know,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: the reporters aren't going to tell you that they got
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of help from the intelligence community. I can
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: just tell you from my own experience that there's no
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: way you get some of the details that they got
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: without a lot of sourcing coming from the intelligence community.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: And I think that that's an important aspect of that
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: story because it means British intelligence is alarmed by this
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: and they want the world to know, and it's important
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: that they've decided it's important that the world know exactly
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: what happened here. So you know, there's no easy way
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: other than you know, we have a system that is
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: built on sentiment, not on facts, right, and what goes
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: viral and what doesn't. And unfortunately some of our information,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: some of our information brokers have their own partisan beliefs, right.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I mean Elon Musk is control. You know, his control
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: of AX has created an ecosystem that is very friendly
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: to one side of the aisle, very unfriendly to the other.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: And yes, they have equal access to the site, but
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: they don't have equal access to the algorithm, right, And
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: that's how you know, and there's been some questions on
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: how TikTok operates that it's the same thing. You may
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: have equal access to the HA, but you don't have
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: equal access to the virality of how the system works,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: and that that to me is the scarier part of
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: this verification issue. That's why I want to build a
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: network of truly independent folks who are not don't have
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: corporate interests. I'm I'm don't get me wrong, I'm not
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders here, I'm a capitalist, But I don't believe
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: you can trust uh these conglomerates who have there who
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: may have more financial interests in UH in in sort
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: of box a of their company, also owning an information
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: ecosystem that they that they may just simply use in
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: order to enrich and enhance the value of everything they
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: have in box A. And I think that's the that's
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: the thing I'm I'm really concerned about. And so it's
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: not great if you have a thousand flowers bloom and
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: no organization around it, no verification. Yes, there's truth will bloom,
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: but there's a lot of untrus that will bloom there too.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: Creating a network of trusted folks where there's maybe you know,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: if you don't abide by a certain set of reporting principles,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: you're out of the network. That is something that I'm
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: hoping to put together. I think it would only enhance
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: the credibility of local independent journalists, but national and international
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: ones as well. This episode of the Chuck Podcast is
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  Speaker 1: use that code all right. Next question comes from John V. Bellingham, Washington.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: He says, Hey, love the podcast. I always feel like
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: I learned something new after your discussion of the Pew
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: typology groups. I've been wondering, if both parties are effectively
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: locked into their bases, does that leave a small, less
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: engaged middle deciding elections. Are we essentially handing outcomes to
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: it disengaged slice of voters? And is that why things
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: feel so cyclical? Best? John B. Bellingham, Washington. Well, yes,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: I mean you could argue we've always had some form
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: of that, right. I would say this, though, that the
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: we've never had as large of a disconnect between the
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: voters that decide who's empower and the voters who get
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: represented by those are in power. And what do I
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: mean by this? Think about the slice of voters that
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: decide who carries Pennsylvania, right, who carries Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: They're these very you know, they're the most important voters
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: in October, and they're the least They're the voters that
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: the members of Congress least are least concerned about. Once
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: they start governing, right, they are, all but a handful
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: of them are always more worried about primary challenges, which
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: means the voter they're concerned about is not the voter
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: that put him, that gave their party power, but the
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: voter that put them individually in power. So what I
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: mean here is that I this is if you're If
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: I had a dream, it would be how can I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: galvanize swing voters of America to realize that they're the
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: least represented people in government, they're the most courted. More
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: money is spent on getting a swing voter to vote,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: and less money is ever unless governing has ever done
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: in order to help said swing voter. Instead, it is
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: the activists that get all the attention. The activists on
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: the left and the activists on the right, which is
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: why you should be incredibly concerned when you have entities
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: like the Club for Growth trying to purify the Republican
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Party or the Democratic Socialist America trying to trying to
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: essentially take over and be the animating force of the
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party. You know, they're trying to they're trying to
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: turn both parties into into sort of ideological homes rather
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: than coalition homes. And you know, we've maybe we we
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: didn't realize that that's really what we had over the years,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: is that the two parties were more of just coalition
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: homes rather and now you've got the activists inside them
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: that they don't want that, right, they don't. They're they're
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: tired of moderates deciding the direction of the party and
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: instead they want to have more say in the party.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: But in doing that, they have definitely untethered governing from
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: the very voters who decide which party gets power. And
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: that's the disconnect that I'm trying to figure out what
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: is the best way to solve this, Right, I'd like
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: to see myself as somebody who's trying to you know,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to look at politics through the prism of
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: the voters who decide who gets power, not necessarily the
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: voters that are the most engaged with who they think
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: deserves power. Right, it is easy to talk to people
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: who are already engaged and have made a decision. There's
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: much harder to inform I think the messy middle, if
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: you will, this less supposedly less engaged voter. And I
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: think that that's you know, that's certainly a huge challenge.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: And yes, it is true. The less engaged voter is
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: has is is who decides which of these two activist
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: groups are going to do the least amount of damage
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: to their lives, because that's how they're voting. They're not
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: voting for anybody, They're just simply voting against the entity
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: that they think will make their life worse. How we
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: recalibrate that relationship, How can we empower swing voters to
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: be the voter that those that are governing thinks about
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: when they're making policy first? Which is the vast right?
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: That's this vast middle that we keep talking about. That's
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: what I'm trying, right, it is, Look, the lazy political
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: activists go to the extremes. The lazy political influencers go
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: to the extremes. The lazy political analysts say things like, oh,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: you know, you're naive. You know, politics has always worked
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: this way. It's about making sure your base is engaged.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: And then and you see what happens in the middle. Sure,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: if you want a country that continues to fail, and
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: if you want a politics that continues to not work,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: we had a politics that was oriented to swing voters
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: for a good fifty years, arguably from Eisenhower to Obama.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Those presidents worried more about those swing voters. And now
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: you now see what happens when you have a president
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: that doesn't give a shit about swing voters and does
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: not care about where the plurality of this country lives politically,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: which is in the middle, not a majority, but we've
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: seen it. A plurality lives in the large center cut right.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: The typology report told us this. But what happens when
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: you have a president that just governs for an extreme
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: This is what you get? All right, next question, what
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: do we got here? Bill s sn Newberg, Oregon. I
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: believe he is a return questioner. Right, Hey, hope your
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: travels are going well. They did. By the way I
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: do it as a road trip, and I do it
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: twice a year, and I do different routes, but it's always,
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: you know, somewhere. Obviously I stay east of the Mississippi
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: in my different routes. But look, I you know, there's
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: no better way to sort of be in awe of
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: this country and to sort of understand that we are
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: a complicated and a diverse place politically than a good
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: old fashioned road trip. And you know who's discovering this
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: world cup fans. They're realizing, Wow, America is a lot
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: more than DC, Washington, San Francisco and LA. Yes, it is,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: and it's a pretty interesting place, and it's a pretty
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: complicated place. And we're a lot harder to stereotype than
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: you think we are. But anyway, but I digress. Quick
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: question here from Bill s in Newberg, Oregon. Where do
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: you come down on the great Man theory of history
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: versus more modern, broader interpretation. It's curious how you think
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: about that, especially given your conversations with guests like Fiona Hill. Ps,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: your nets got the better of my mariners after I
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: jinxed them. Still think you're at Emerson Hancock fantasy pickup
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: will pay off? No, not only is it paying off.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: I've already got like trade, I've already got members of
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: my fantasy league trying to get handcocked because I have not.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not had to put them in my starting lineup yet.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: I have planned to butt I haven't. My league counts
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: stats for the whole season once you put them in
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: your lineup, and then all the stats go away once
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: you take them out of your lineup. It's how my
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: league's done it for forty years, since before I Elverd
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: joined it. It is what it is. It's like the
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: electoral college. It's not my favorite system, but it's the
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: system we use, so you deal with it. You know.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: It's funny on the great the idea of the great
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: man theory. I just think the Times, you know, I
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: guess I'm ultimately a believer in the Times make the man.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: The man don't make the Times or the woman. Don't
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: make the Times, the Times make the person, you know,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: being you know. David Actu writed a great line once
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: about running for president. He said, it's an MRI for
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: the soul. But being president is the ultimate character test, right,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: It's the greatest character test there is, and you find
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: out quickly, right, because president really can get away with anything,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: can do whatever the hell they want. And it's those that,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: you know, it's that who falls for that temptation. I
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: think they all fall for the temptation, you know, to
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: in some form or another. I always I think it
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: was I think I'm trying to remember which Bridges was
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: one of my favorite underrated fictional president. I think it
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: was Bow Bridges, who was not Jeff. I think it
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: was Bo who was the president for the movie that
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: was about the first woman running mate at the time.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's called The Contender. Look, I'm I know
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: I can go check these things in some ways. I
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: just you know, I'm trying to be an honest answer here,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: just sort of but there. I do know this line
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: is correct from that movie. Give me in fact, I'm
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: gonna just correct this here. This is why you check.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I had the movie right. It's The Contender. It was
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: the wrong Bridges. It wasn't Bo. Was Jeff played this anyway?
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: That presidential character one of the it was just sort
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: of a sidebar character. He didn't really have to carry
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: the movie. But he would be like, hey watch this,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna order me a sharks. Whatever I order they
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: can make me. You know, if that's the only crazy
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: thing my president did, Like I'm gonna order a shark
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: fin sandwich and watch they'll produce it, I'd be okay
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: with that. But the point is is that there's when
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: you're president, there's a temptation that you know, it's anything
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: you want, anything you want your to take is yours.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: If you choose to do it, you're the president. You
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: can get away with it, you can pardon anybody, You
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: can do this, right, And so it's an incredible character test.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: It's incredible what we learn from that. So that's why
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: I don't believe you know that, Look, it is why
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: I believe character is destiny and why characters should be
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: the single most important thing of voter uses to decide
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: who should be president, not a policy decision, not a
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: policy belief. All right, you know, what are they What
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: are they going to do when defending my life matters?
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: What are they going to do when the integrity of
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: America is at stake? Right? So you know that's I
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: just you know, you could say I might have the
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: luxury to vote on character, but it's the single most
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: important thing, and I vote on character in all my
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: political rays, and that's why I've never voted straight ticket,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: because if you're voting on character, you know, there's people
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: of good character on both sides of the island. There's
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: people a bad character on both sides of the eye.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: So no, I'm not a believer that, you know, I
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: believe the times make the person in the times in
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: some ways reveal they they they surface the leader that
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: we need, not necessarily the leader that we want. And
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: so you know that's uh. And by the way, if
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: if Roosevelt wasn't the right guy, we would have voted
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: him out right, and if Lincoln wasn't the right person,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: we might not have ever voted him in. So I
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: you know, when you think of the two of the
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: presidents that sort of I think that that argument. You know,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: where they were they would they have been great in
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: any era? Or was them were they just right for
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: the moment that was needed or did the moment sort
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: of they just these were good character people. And we've
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: had say half our presidents have been high character people.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: For sure, maybe more than that, but let's assume we've
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: had half our president's pretty high character people, and under
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: maybe half of them would have been able to handle
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: and would have met the moment that FDR met or
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Lincoln met if faced with it. But we don't know
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: for sure doing and so the debate will live on.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: But look, I don't believe in divine rights, Okay, I
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: don't believe that they're I think all monarchies are just
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: dictatorships with fancy titles. So that should tell you I'm
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: not a big believer in the great man or great
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: woman theory of leadership, that's for sure. Well, this episode
• 1:05:59
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  Speaker 1: Use the code toodcast, all right, last question here, Oh,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: this is a perfect way to end because it's sort
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: of when you get to end where you start it,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: and it's on foreign policy. Dan writes, if the communist
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: regime in Cuba were to fall as a direct result
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: of the Trump administration, with that result in Democrats losing
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: Florida for a generation or is it more complicated than that.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: I've been pondering that question and would love this opinion
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: of the widest of all Florida men. Thank you well. Dan.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: It's funny. So it's exactly what I was thinking in
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: the back of my head when I told you. But
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: when I said at the end of my monologue at
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: the start of this podcast, before the interview with Ian Bremmer,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: that look, while Cube is going to be a wild
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: card in this election, and you know a lot of time,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: here's what I do know is what history tells us
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: is that when you have these big, sort of consequential
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: moments that reward a constituency, it actually doesn't have legs
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: for a generation. In some ways, I think it would.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: You know, if Cuba is no longer an issue, then
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: suddenly there's a lot more issues that are going to
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: divide South Florida Florida residents. Right, the Cuba issue has
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: been an easy way to organize politically in South Florida.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: If Cuba is no longer front and center, right, and
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: we've solved the problem, do you think voters just reward
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: politicians for solving a problem or do they start looking
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: at the next problem? Right? So, no, I don't. So
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: I'll here's what I think. In the near term, it
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: is going to be a you know, a boom I
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: think for local Cuban political leadership, no doubt. As I've joked,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: I'm like, you know, move over. You know, in South Florida,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of there's a lot of streets, a lot
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: of named after the Diaz Balarts, but in particular the
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: father who was an important exile leader of the Cuban community,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: my friend whose ideas Bill Art's father beloved late father.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: And but yeah, everything is going to be named after
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: Rubio around around Miami over a generation. So it certainly
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: is good politics for Marco Rubio, right, And it could
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: be you know, uh, it could be something that's that's
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: truly monumental politically for him and legacy building for him
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: in a way that that I don't think we can
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: fully fully appreciate. But I don't think it's a long
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think it ends up doing anything long term
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: because of the phenomenon. I told like, once you take,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: once that issue is solved, we move on to other issues,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: right it is, you know once I mean, look at
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: what happened to the country once the Cold War ended.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: All of a sudden, our consensus started to fracture. In fact,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: I believe we've been fracturing ever since the Cold War.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Was this sort of it sort of forced these various
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: coalitions to stick together. I think there's a similarity, a
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: similarity down in South Florida in particular. So look, in
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: the near term, it's a huge boon for Republicans, you know.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: And if Cuba happens in a semi peaceful way and
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: it is quick and as fast as Venezuela did before
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: the midterms, yeah, I wouldn't be betting on David Jolly
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: or Vinman to pull any upsets there. I'd be betting
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: on Donalds and Moody and everybody in a pretty big
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: Republican sweep, at least in South Florida. But I don't
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: think it transfers beyond that. By the way, I don't
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: think it would matter at all outside of the state.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: Of South Flora, or as the late great Howard Snallenberger
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: used to call it, the state of Miama. In the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: state of Miami in case you wondering for football recruiting purposes,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: was Miami, Broward and Palm Beach. So the state of Miami. Absolutely,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: it is a boon and it absolutely will be in
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: that positive for Republicans and that negative for Democrats. But
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's generation because I think if it
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: goes away, it actually opens the door for other issues
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: to come in and new coalitions to be created and reformed.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: That was kind of a political science answer for you
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: instead of the Florida man answer wasn't it. But either way, hey,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: enjoy the weekend. Be safe out there, and as always,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you listening and subscribing. By the way, if
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: you really want to see and you want to get
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: involved in a true underdog story, come on and jump
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: on the NAT span way. We're four games over five
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: hundred the playoff. If the season ended today, the Nats
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: would be in the playoffs. And if you can't name
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: one NAT pitcher yet, I know you can name at
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: least one hitter on the Nats. The best hitter in baseball.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: Mister James Wood, I'm sorry these All Star voters haven't
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: figured that out yet, but All Star voters will figure
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: it out soon enough. But you need to get to
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: know these Nats because guess what, I don't think we're
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: going anywhere. I think this team is going to contend
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. They're too young, not
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: too and we've got an operation that puts a strategy
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: together to figure out how to win every game. They
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: don't worry about season long projections. They worry about day
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: to day long projections. It's the Raise way and man,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: am I a convert. Count me in. I love it.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna enjoy my Nats weekend as well.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: I'll see on Monday and then