Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Simon Bridges: Auckland Business Chamber CEO on the Mood of the Boardroom weeks out from the election

Transcript

Simon Bridges: Auckland Business Chamber CEO on the Mood of the Boardroom weeks out from the election · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Sharp rebound in business confidence in the Herald's mood of
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: the boardroom this morning. More than half are more optimistic
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: now than they were a year ago, including 10% much more, 22%
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: less so. The election fuel global conflict, all big areas
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: of worry for our CEO, Simon Bridges, Auckland Business Chamber CEO.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Good morning.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Hi, morning, Ryan.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: How are those business leaders feeling?
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's intriguing if you read the full
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: 40-something pages, which I've done for my sin. I mean,
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: there's definitely what you say, which is that optimism there
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: in the local business environment, at least. You know, it's
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: kind of the sense, and I pick it up as
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: well in my travels, that whatever the politicians and the
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: world does, you know, we're going to get on with it.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: I would say, though, there's also, you know, subtly, and
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: it's variable, but across this slither of business, which is
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: the top end of town, there's also dissatisfaction. You know,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: they're wanting to see, and this is across the board,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: across the political class, you know, when they're looking at them,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: they want to see more investment in infrastructure, they want
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: to see reform, they want to see leadership, they want
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: to see more talk about productivity, and they're not necessarily
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: seeing that. So I would sort of, if you think
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: about it politically, I would kind of say, because you'd expect,
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: and they are in their numbers, the Nats as a
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: centre-right incumbent government to be higher up, I would sort
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: of call it a tactical draw between the Nats and
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Labour when you look at this closely.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Interesting. What about the idea of the smaller parties having
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: more say and smaller parties of very different persuasions in
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: the case of the coalition having more say in the
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: next government?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, my read of Moody the Boardroom is
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: they don't like that, right? And to be clear, I mean,
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: if you look at it, the minor parties, the exception
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: perhaps of ACT, so if you look at the You know,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: the ministers that score well, and really, you don't have
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: NZ First there in the top 10. You do have
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: David Seymour and Brook Van Velden, though, right? Actually, higher
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: than the Prime Minister, who doesn't even make the top 10,
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: although he gets some good remarks there, right? And so, yeah,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: I think there's definitely an unease about the tail wagging
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: the dog. The reality is that's our MMP system. And
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: I would say, you know, Ryan, if you think about
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: it this way, this is a very small slither of business.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: It's the top end of town, let alone being the electorate. So,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: you know, they've got a very clear view about what
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: they like. They tend to like stability, certainty and incumbent
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: government over kind of change that might be messy and uncertain.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: In about 10 minutes, we're going to talk about the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: chances of opportunity getting across the 5% threshold. What do
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: you reckon?
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Oh, look, I think, you know, when I sort of,
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: with my amateur hat on, look at the election, there's
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: two things there that on election night are going to mean,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: you know, kind of anything could happen. And they are opportunities.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: Do they get there or not? I mean, I think
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: my sense is if you look at the polls, they're
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: consistently above five. You know, I don't think you need
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: to be wrong to say that means more likely than not.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: That said, nothing would surprise me. And then that overhang issue,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: you know, I think that's very, critical to this. Does
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: National end up with lots of electorate MPs and not
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: so many, if any, list MPs? Same with Te Pāti Māori.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, three or four or five Te
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Pāti Māori MPs without the list votes, you know, that
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: could be an election cliffhanger.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: To get 5% on the day, you sort of need
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: to be polling seven consistently at least, don't you, in
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the lead up to, you know what I mean?
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Well, that's what clever people say. So, I mean, you know,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: there's all that too. I kind of come back to it,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: you know, can you remember an election where it was
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: kind of the sunset and where kind of nothing would
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: surprise you? Nothing would surprise me. A hung parliament would
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: not surprise me. A centre-right government would not surprise me.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: A left of centre government with three, four parties would
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: not surprise me.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: It's anyone's guess. Simon Bridges, Auckland Business Chamber CEO.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: to News Talk ZB from 5 a.m. weekdays or follow
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.