Latest / Best of Business / Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on GDP dropping 0.9 percent in the June quarter

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Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on GDP dropping 0.9 percent in the June quarter · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk Z'B follow
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  Speaker 2: New Zealand's economy suffered a sharper decline than anticipated, so
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  Speaker 2: dropped zero point nine percent in the June corner. That
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  Speaker 2: was almost twice the forecasted amount. Joining us now as
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  Speaker 2: Brad Olson, chief executive and principal economists with Infometrics get
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  Speaker 2: a brand good Afternoon.
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  Speaker 3: So how did we get this so wrong? How did
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  Speaker 3: all the experts get the numbers? Basically was where we
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  Speaker 3: were looking at zero negative zero point four and it's
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  Speaker 3: coming in zero point negative of zero point nine.
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  Speaker 2: We knew it wasn't going to be a pretty number,
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  Speaker 2: but you're right, we undercooked just how bad it has been.
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  Speaker 2: And I think looking through the numbers, it's clear that
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  Speaker 2: the impact of the tariff announcement in April really put
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  Speaker 2: probably more of a shock than we we'd all first
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  Speaker 2: expected through into the economy because it was some of
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  Speaker 2: those areas that were influenced the most, the likes of
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  Speaker 2: manufacturing down three point five percent. But when we looked
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  Speaker 2: as well at some of the figures that highlighted it
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  Speaker 2: was alongside manufacturing also just general capital investment came back
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  Speaker 2: quite a bit, and I think that highlights it. Look,
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  Speaker 2: if you're a business out there, you were thinking there
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  Speaker 2: were better economic times at the start of this year.
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  Speaker 4: You were primed for things to become a little bit better.
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  Speaker 2: You were thinking of investing more, you know, putting in
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  Speaker 2: some more planter equipment, trying to be a bit more efficient,
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  Speaker 2: control your.
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  Speaker 4: Costs, get ready for that growth.
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  Speaker 2: The teriffs came through and just everyone immediately went, well,
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  Speaker 2: there's no way I'm investing.
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  Speaker 4: I'm going to sit on my hands. I'm going to
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  Speaker 4: hold back on on.
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  Speaker 2: Sort of making those big, big decisions. And really that
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  Speaker 2: sort of showed through in a number of industries where
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  Speaker 2: actually household spending increased in the quarter, but it was
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  Speaker 2: that real drag back from business investment that held the
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  Speaker 2: economy back and saw now the economy sitting one point
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  Speaker 2: one percent smaller than where it was a year ago.
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  Speaker 3: So, you know, tariffs and such, but how much is
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  Speaker 3: local pressures like energy costs coming into play in this number.
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  Speaker 2: I suspect it's sort of a culmination of everything. Right,
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  Speaker 2: It's not anyone impact, but when you combine them all,
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  Speaker 2: you know you're seeing businesses that are going well. I
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  Speaker 2: don't know about the global trading environment because of tariffs.
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  Speaker 2: I've got energy price shocks that are coming through. I've
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  Speaker 2: got concerns about will there actually be purchases in the economy.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's one of those things where when you
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  Speaker 2: see all of those together, people just went, you know what,
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  Speaker 2: I'm just I'm not making that call today. I'm just
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  Speaker 2: going to sort of wait it out. What's interesting is
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  Speaker 2: that one of the indicators that we often watch because
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  Speaker 2: it gives us a bit more of a timely lead,
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  Speaker 2: is the Performance of Manufacturing Index, the PMI that B
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  Speaker 2: and Z and Business New Zealand bring out. And it
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  Speaker 2: was interesting looking through that that the start of this
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  Speaker 2: year you actually saw manufacturing activity that popped higher after
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  Speaker 2: two years of declines. Hit the tariffs, things came back
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  Speaker 2: pretty sharply. Through parts of May and June, July things
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  Speaker 2: popped a little bit higher, and then in August they
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  Speaker 2: fell back down to basically neutral. And I think that
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  Speaker 2: shows that even at the moment, we're a little bit
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  Speaker 2: worried and cautious about where economic activity sits right here
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  Speaker 2: right now, because remembering that data we're talking about is
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  Speaker 2: still sort of you know, near three months old. We
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  Speaker 2: had been hoping and expecting that we'd come out of
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  Speaker 2: that sort of tariff shock, you'd come through to September quarter,
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  Speaker 2: there'd be a little bit more activity happening. But looking
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  Speaker 2: through some of those figures, the growth just looks like
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  Speaker 2: when it is coming through, if it's coming through, is
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  Speaker 2: so patchy that again households and businesses just really reluctant
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  Speaker 2: to invest. I note in the figures brand that household
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  Speaker 2: consumption expenditure was up zero point four percent, and it
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  Speaker 2: appears people are going out and buying things like TVs,
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  Speaker 2: computers and other technical equipment. So in some ways, households
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  Speaker 2: and most of us out there are kind of trying
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  Speaker 2: to do our part with a bit more spending, But
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  Speaker 2: there's other parts of the economy that aren't coming through.
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  Speaker 2: That's absolutely true, and I think that's sort of realistic.
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  Speaker 2: When you've got mortgage rates that have been pulling back,
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  Speaker 2: people have got a bit more money and so there
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  Speaker 2: is a little bit more spending, but again it's petchy
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  Speaker 2: and it's not sort of wholesale enough for businesses to
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  Speaker 2: be rehiring at the same degree. I mean, I think
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  Speaker 2: from a household point of view, you continue to hear
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  Speaker 2: a lot of people that are saying, yes, there's a
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  Speaker 2: few purchases going on, but at the same time, you know,
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  Speaker 2: people are worried about their jobs, so they're being a
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  Speaker 2: little bit more restrained with the spending. Point four is
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  Speaker 2: not bad, but it's certainly not rip roaring, and I
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  Speaker 2: think that's sort of the challenge and the compromise at
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  Speaker 2: the moment.
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  Speaker 4: What we're of course looking.
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  Speaker 2: For is the fact that you're going to have households
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  Speaker 2: that continue to refix on to low mortgage rates through
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  Speaker 2: the rest of this year. But will they and will
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  Speaker 2: businesses when they start to get a bit more of
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  Speaker 2: that money, are they going to spend and invest that
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  Speaker 2: themselves or are they going to try and sort of
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  Speaker 2: build up a bit more of a buffer because the
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  Speaker 2: word of the year so far seems to be uncertainty.
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  Speaker 2: No one knows exactly where things are going next, and
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  Speaker 2: whether you're a business or a household, you're going when
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  Speaker 2: is the right time to spend. I don't want to,
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  Speaker 2: you know, sort of spend too much now and then
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  Speaker 2: find myself in a pickle later on. So I think
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  Speaker 2: that's almost the vibe that we're getting through same with
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  Speaker 2: the likes of you know, construction activity was down one
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  Speaker 2: point eight percent. Again people are going, is now the
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  Speaker 2: right time to build a new house or to go on,
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  Speaker 2: you know, build a new manufacturing site. Well, clearly there's
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  Speaker 2: not as much activity out there.
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  Speaker 3: So does this all all this situation strength in the
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  Speaker 3: case for a fifty point or more rates cut from
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  Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank in October?
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  Speaker 2: It certainly raises the prospects absolutely, Adams Metrics. We're not
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  Speaker 2: formally calling it yet, but we've start with put a
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  Speaker 2: pretty big sticker warning on it and said, look, it
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  Speaker 2: raises the chance substantially that the Reserve Bank thinks of
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  Speaker 2: pulling that fifty basis point cut trigger. I've seen a
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  Speaker 2: few other banks that have been outright saying look, no,
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  Speaker 2: it needs to happen, and that you'd see potentially a
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  Speaker 2: fifty basis point cut in October, and then you might
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  Speaker 2: see another twenty five basis point cut in November. And
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  Speaker 2: I think the big part of that one of the
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  Speaker 2: challenges we've really been struggling with around what do you
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  Speaker 2: do with interest rates is that often the impact doesn't
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  Speaker 2: come through nearly as quickly as everyone might think. And
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  Speaker 2: so we're trying to sort of play this awful time
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  Speaker 2: and game of what's the economy going to be like
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  Speaker 2: in the year's time and how do we sort of
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  Speaker 2: support it. Then, with economic activity lower at the moment,
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  Speaker 2: it means that sort of that just potential wind up
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  Speaker 2: for economic activity is going to take so much longer,
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  Speaker 2: which look does raise that I think the idea the worry,
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  Speaker 2: and it's only a worry. I think people will be
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  Speaker 2: going out there, will you know who cares about this
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  Speaker 2: consum Let's just sort of get some economic activity firing.
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  Speaker 2: Let's be clear, though, there is a bit of a
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  Speaker 2: worry in the back of my mind if you start
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  Speaker 2: to go with bigger interest rate cuts at the moment
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  Speaker 2: you get twelve months into the future economic activity has
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  Speaker 2: recovered a bit more. But jeez, if your pricing pressures
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  Speaker 2: start to be showing through and you've got some pretty
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  Speaker 2: big cost of living challenges, that's a real miss for
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  Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank, who are trying to keep inflation stable.
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  Speaker 2: So the court between a rock and a hard place,
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  Speaker 2: needing to keep those inflationary pressures at bay, but clearly
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  Speaker 2: needing to provide a bit more support for the economy.
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  Speaker 2: It's a difficult mix.
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  Speaker 3: Now, construction was down, as you said, but what are
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  Speaker 3: we seeing anything, any life going forward, any consent growth
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  Speaker 3: or how are we looking in the next six to
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  Speaker 3: twelve months.
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  Speaker 2: I think on the consent growth front, I mean there's
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  Speaker 2: patches of it here and there. It really depends on
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  Speaker 2: where you are in the country. Building consent numbers for
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  Speaker 2: residential homes have leveled out a little bit more the
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  Speaker 2: last couple of months around sort of thirty four thousand.
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  Speaker 2: Again I think probably important for construction, remembering that we
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  Speaker 2: were coming off like the highest number of consents in
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  Speaker 2: half a century. So like when you comparison points Mount Everest,
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  Speaker 2: it's always hard to sort of think that you're doing
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  Speaker 2: too great, But thirty four thousand is not bad. The
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  Speaker 2: area that I think probably shows a lot more promise,
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  Speaker 2: and I think, to be honest, the government is hoping
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  Speaker 2: shows a lot more promise is the infrastructure space. You
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  Speaker 2: hear constantly from ministers that there's six billion dollars worth
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  Speaker 2: of investment that's trying to get going by I think
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  Speaker 2: Christmas is the timeframe they normally talk about. That's an
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  Speaker 2: area where again we know we need better resourcing into
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  Speaker 2: the likes of schools, hospitals, water pipes, transport projects. If
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  Speaker 2: the government can get that going, then that does support
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  Speaker 2: a whole lot more activity, and hopefully over time would
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  Speaker 2: flow through into manufacturing. One of the challenges is that
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  Speaker 2: manufactured goods are often things that go into other physical
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  Speaker 2: items like buildings, and if you're not doing as much building,
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  Speaker 2: then you don't need as many fixtures and fitting. So
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  Speaker 2: we're hoping that again, over time you start to see
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  Speaker 2: that activity, those economic activity numbers rev up. But we
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  Speaker 2: really have started to think more now that the economic
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  Speaker 2: recovery would show through stronger in twenty twenty six. We
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  Speaker 2: keep holding out hope there's a bit more towards the
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  Speaker 2: end of this year, but September quarter looks patchy for now.
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  Speaker 2: I guess we're hoping for a bit of a brighter summer.
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  Speaker 3: So, because we're taking this to the phone, I weight
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  Speaker 3: hundred eighty ten eighty, it's probably going to come down
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  Speaker 3: to this, really, how much is this the previous government's
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  Speaker 3: fault and as the current government doing enough to turn
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  Speaker 3: this around, or how much is this just a little
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  Speaker 3: player and a big stormy international ocean.
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  Speaker 4: I think it's all elements of that.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I think clearly we overdid it, you know,
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  Speaker 2: a couple of years back, when we were spending far
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  Speaker 2: more money than we had and we got ourselves into
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  Speaker 2: an unsustainable position. Current governments come in and had to
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  Speaker 2: make some pretty tough choices around where to put their money.
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  Speaker 2: But that has meant that there hasn't been as much
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  Speaker 2: investment into certain areas, and the public sector has pulled
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  Speaker 2: back and the private sector just hasn't had the money
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  Speaker 2: to sort of push forward and fill the gaps. Internationally, yep,
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  Speaker 2: there are a lot of challenges out there and a
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  Speaker 2: lot of sort of questions around where we're heading. I
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  Speaker 2: think effectively though, for the economy, we're trying to find
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  Speaker 2: the new normal. What's the goldilock zone after some pretty
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  Speaker 2: topsy turvy times. You don't want it to go back
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  Speaker 2: to COVID lockdown. That was awful. You probably don't want
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  Speaker 2: it to go back to twenty twenty two when the
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  Speaker 2: economy was massively firing, but we then got the highest
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  Speaker 2: inflation and a generation.
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  Speaker 4: You don't want it where it is at the moment.
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  Speaker 4: You want it a little bit more in the middle.
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  Speaker 4: And we're taking time to find that new Goldilock zone.
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  Speaker 3: So how far away is that? Can you see anything?
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  Speaker 3: Is the recovery in sight? Do we just need to
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  Speaker 3: hold on? It was survived to twenty twenty five, but
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  Speaker 3: you know twenty twenty five is nearly gone. Is the
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  Speaker 3: recovery coming? Is there is there a light at the
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  Speaker 3: end of the tunnel?
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  Speaker 4: Oh? I still think there is.
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  Speaker 2: Again, households have got those line mortgage rates and similar
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  Speaker 2: coming through the primary sector is providing. We now have
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  Speaker 2: changed our tune a little bit, though we talk a
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  Speaker 2: lot more about staying the mixed till twenty six.
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  Speaker 4: I guess that's cold comfort for everyone.
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  Speaker 2: I guess the point though, is that if we're sitting
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  Speaker 2: out there and we're saying, look things and going to
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  Speaker 2: get better, generally, you know, economic expectations do lead reality.
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  Speaker 2: So I'm not willing to sit there as an economist
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  Speaker 2: to say it's you know, we're all down in a
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  Speaker 2: funk and it's never going to get better. But I
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  Speaker 2: think we're realistic that it is taking a whole lot
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  Speaker 2: longer than we hoped and expected. Yeah, yeah, Brad, always
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  Speaker 2: really good to get your expertise and analysis. Thanks for
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  Speaker 2: coming on, and we'll catch up again soon.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you, good one.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah you to. That is Brad Olson, the chief executive
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  Speaker 2: and principal economist, didn't for met Trix.
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