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Dont buy SpaceX stock now! · Green Ticker Tales

• 0:00
  hi quick one so spacex would start trading i guess another 30 minutes and a half from now and i'm sure you've been seeing the balls around social media about spacex initial public offer there's so much frenzy around it um on local scene i've seen lots of ads by fintech apps on the foreign scene as well literally all the pipeline apps you used to buy stocks the fintech apps has been so much buzz around for spacex
• 0:29
  now spacex in case you're wondering is a company that's run by elon musk and it's it's had its initial public offer a few days ago the firm is going to start trading on the stock market so it's going to be available to the public today now the initial public offer ipo means the very first time the company sells shares to the public the company from that public offer has raised 75 billion dollars so this is the biggest
• 0:59
  initial public offer um on ads so far i think prior to now we had a saudi uh aramco so for spacex scoring valuation uh with the offer values the stock of the company at 1.77 trillion dollars that makes it one of the biggest companies in the u.s in fact it makes it the seventh largest company in the u.s now i know a lot of people are going to want to rush in
• 1:27
  uh wanting to buy about say look this is not the time to get into this stock i know people are fans of elon musk he's a genius no that's the easiest way to describe him elon musk is a genius you can see what he's done with tesla what he's doing with spacex i mean he's genius level so part of the valuation in some ways that company has to do with
• 1:56
  the fact that there is a there is a almost cult-like following of elon musk um and so people will be willing to invest in anything that elon is involved because he does amazing stuff the valuation of this company though is a bit it's a bit pricey um at its uh at its current revenue it means that you're going to be paying 90 times a bit over 90 times and companies revenue
• 2:26
  that's when you compare the sales to market cap so if company does one dollar you're going to be paying ninety dollars at his plus at his current valuation the only way that makes sense is if the company is able to grow its earnings by a hundred percent say maybe four for the next four five years and that's literally almost impossible i mean so even if you have a 30 percent 50 percent annual growth in earnings for the next five years
• 2:55
  you still have overpaid so it's important that what as you want to get into this stock what as it may be a great stock to buy if you buy and there's a there's a tweet on this i think if you read it that if you buy a great investment at an expensive price then it becomes a bad investment so it may be a great company to own but not at this price the the fillers i'm seeing
• 3:23
  there's something called shadow trading and just look at prediction markets and all the all the different places where you can kind of get a hint as to where the stock will be opening at or where the stock would be at the public offer initial public offer was for 135 dollars most likely this stock in fact my prediction is trading is going to be so heated in this stock that we're going to see the trading suspended a bit to go things off
• 3:50
  so i think this stock will probably end the day somewhere between 160 to 180 dollars a share what i would say is give it a couple of months and then get into the stock give it a couple of months and then get into the stock why do i say so just when you look at the three components of the business um at some point down the line you're going to have missed outlooks mixed expectations and that's those missed
• 4:18
  expectations we create by an opportunity so in my view i think the good time to get into this stock probably if you can get into it if slash when it trades at ninety dollars to a hundred dollars that's probably a good place to get into this stock um so if you're looking at it um at this current market cap is about 1.77 trillion that starts the valuation you want to wait for maybe a trillion in my view a trillion will be good because that slice is almost um
• 4:48
  uh maybe 40 something percent of its value so wait give it a couple of months the balls will die down and then you can then get into the stock another option people say cost averaging meaning you can say look i'm not going to buy everything all at once i'm going to just every month or two or three or periodically i'm going to buy into it i definitely believe in cost averaging but even now at if you in my view if you're cost averaging and you're buying at
• 5:18
  at the top or close to the top then you really have just solved half of the equation so give it a few months let the balls die down maybe we see the stock trading at who knows 80 90 100 and then you can start to get in and start to just gradually uh accumulate now just also share some thoughts around the pricing because some people might say okay if if it's expensive or it was overvalued um then why
• 5:47
  you know why the financial markets let it fly like that it's quite simple there is a pricing process now when it comes to initial public offers in fact i must say with this public offer the price was kind of fixed now normally you have a book building process whereby different parties come with different prices and based on that book building process you now arrive at what's the price at which the public the ipo or public offers depending on what it is and go by now for them you just say look we're going with 135 dollars uh so
• 6:18
  Typically, when you are on the sell side of things, meaning you are a company that wants to raise money, you want to price your shares as expensive as possible. That way, you don't need to sell a huge number of shares. So that way, you can also raise some good money. Now, if you are a buyer on the other side of things, you want it to be as cheap as possible. So, it's a catch-22 situation when it comes to pricing public offers. If you make it too expensive, people don't buy.
• 6:46
  if you make it too cheap you're leaving money on the table uh so you want it's a balancing act and you there's no science to it you don't have it you just have to kind of sample opinions and all now for this frame this firm is an exception because the star power of Elon Musk means that he can afford and the company can afford to command the premium um when it comes to investing the company can afford to compare to the company can afford to command the premium
• 7:16
  and that's what we're seeing here so please take it easy don't get caught in the hype this is not the time to buy space x stock yet give it five six months give it a year or two things would have cooled off and then we can get it so i hope you join me in the space 3 p.m and if you can't i would say keep an eye on the critical platforms um most likely see if i can do a blog post on this or if
• 7:44
  thinking maybe i should convert this audio to a video and let's see how it goes so stay safe