Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Sports Betting Roundtable with Todd Fuhrman | Part 1

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Sports Betting Roundtable with Todd Fuhrman | Part 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the favor.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: It's a special gambling around table presented by DraftKings. The
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Crown is yours. I'm your host, you're moderator of this chat.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Brandon Kravitz alongside Stucky and Evan Abrams. Our guest Todd
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Furman joining the show momentarily. Kendra will be back from
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: chasing elephants in Africa next week. We will save the
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: chit chat for her return because we will have much
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: to discuss. But we have a same game parlay to
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: get to for Game six of thunder Spurs. If you
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: want the full breakdown, check out my episode of Buckets
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: alongside Brandon Anderson. We are gonna dive right into it.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: One pick a piece from myself, Stucky and Evan Abrams,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Let's plant our flag.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that dext Evan,
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: What are we looking at?
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: So I believe Oklahoma City is gonna win the game.
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: Forget the three and a half points, let's go money line,
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: and I think Oklahoma City becomes the villain to Wemby
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: and that is the best storyline going forward, as he
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: needs to get over that hump. The NBA is just
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: a fake storyline. So Oklahoma City wins in San Antonio,
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: Wenby gets revenged in a few years.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: I really want to see a game seven. I fear
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: you might be right about this, Stucky. What are you
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: adding to the card?
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: Well, the other day we both hit our props. I
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: mean you got us down with a total Yeah, shout
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: out to the Buckets podcast. I'll go back to them
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: with chet under points and I asked for some good games?
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Can we this cut? These Conference final is such a
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: dot after a game one, Holy well, you've got to
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: sweep and then blowouts in the other one. Since so
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: let's go chet under.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: So a lot of pressure here since I am the
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: resident member of Buckets and I was the only one
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: that didn't hit a leg of our game five parlay
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: Isaiah Hartenstein over seven and a half points.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: The Spurs have made it very clear that they.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Are not concerned with Hartenstein's whereabouts on the floor. They're
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: doubling up on Shay Gil as Alexander as they should.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: They've started staying home on three point shooters and it's
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: just leaving the middle of the.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Lane wide open for iHeart.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Then they the last couple of games they'd just been
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: letting him get whatever he wants. So over seven and
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: a half points for Isaiah Hartenstein will be my bet.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Added to the.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Card plus six fifty over on draft Kings. The crown
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: is yours, Let's get it. Co founder of bet the Board,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: former odds maker, CBS sports betting analysts. Very special guest
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: this week, Todd Ferman joining us big topics, important discussions
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: to be had on today's show, a two parter so
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: big we had to do it twice, so make sure
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: you keep it locked right here on this channel. We're
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: talking about the impact of prediction markets, how we expect
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: the industry to change in coming years, and how AI
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: could play a role in ruining all of our lives.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Todd, how you.
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: Doing I'm doing well. With an intro like that, I'm
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: not sure if we're going to take on a somber
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: tone or we should be opportunistic and or enthusiastic about
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: the direction of this space, but no doubt unique time,
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: to say the least. We all thought we were going
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: to turn a corner with legalization back in twenty eighteen
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: and here we are less than a decade later, trying
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: to figure out what the next curveball look like and
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: to be thrown our way.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: Well, well, I want the audience to get to know
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: you a little bit better before we kick it around
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: the horn.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Your background?
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: How did this all start getting into this wild space
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: of sports betting? Take me back to the early days
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: and then and what it led to Right now?
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: Do we really want to go back to the teenage
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: years I went stuck?
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I want the real dejais message is.
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: Going back and forth about college basketball. I think stuck
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: at that point might have been thirteen. I might have
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: been fifteen or sixteen. The ages get a little bit
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: blurry at this point. But I've always kind of been
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: in and around betting. I mean, my dad's background was
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: in the financial markets, so he of course had ties
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: to sports betting. Always had the traditional bookie you call
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: you get your rundown on the weekends, and that kind
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: of was taking the lid off of Pandora's box. But
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: from a professional standpoint, got my degree in economics, decided
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: I didn't want to work on Wall Street and take
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: that kind of traditional path, So what better way than
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: to get into this particular space, then move out to
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: Vegas sight unseen, and I think more importantly for Stuck
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: In some of his buddies, it gave him a place
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: to crash on the weekends they disappear. I had to
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: put him through a little bit of a crash course
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: in terms of, hey, this is where you guys need
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: to go. Here's a felt tip marketer. Write the address
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: so you don't get lost on Las Vegas Boulevard and
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: you have a place to put your head down when
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: you go to bed at night. But worked as a
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: financial analyst with Caesars Entertainment. That's kind of how I
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: learned the casino business from the ground floor off it.
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: Always had an interest, of course in the sports side,
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: and then gradually migrated out of the number crunching aspect
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: of the casino business at Lar into learning the odds
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: making trade, figuring out what it took to run a
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: successful operation. Had some great mentors behind the counter at
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: Caesars Entertainment way back in the day. Chuck Esposito is
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: still in the space and a couple of other prominent
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: figures as well, and then kind of migrated from there
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: into the media aspect of it, thinking that sports betting
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: is not going away. How can we make things a
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: little bit more accessible and comfortable for some of those
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: sports fans and are out there throw the kerosene, the gasoline,
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: the jet fuel on things. That was the repeal of
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: PASSPA in twenty eighteen, and the media opportunities really kind
• 5:35
  Speaker 5: of proliferated. I think for all of us to take
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: our passions and take difficult concepts, at least at a
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: high level, and try and make them much more relatable
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: to the world and the landscape we live in now,
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: where we're trying to figure out not necessarily where we
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: can find the next winner, but what markets are going
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: to give us the best liquidity and the opportunity for
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: us to flourish in the space, as it may be.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: I was not familiar with this background that you had
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: with Stucky. I was not pre on this cozy relationship
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Stucky fill me in.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well he told me he tried to show him ropes.
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: He didn't stop me from going to uh circus circus
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: to see an Australian girl at three in the morning.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I would look.
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: I was stuck. I wasn't going to bring up that story.
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: I mean, you fell in love, you fell in love
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: hard back on all of those Vegas trips. There was
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: nothing any of us could do to get in the
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: way of that kind of opportunity.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: But I got I do have a funny story yet,
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Tom and I go back because I started on the
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: forums back in you know, high school, and I became
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: friendly with Todd, and at one point we actually started
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: our own forum, Winter Circle.
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: I think there were nine people posting in that forum
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: at peak capacity.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: Honestly, but we were.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: You know, we've been talking for over twenty years and
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: have had a close relationship, been talking about him. But
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: a funny story about that is I think I was
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: like fifteen or sixteen, and so Todd was like eighteen
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: or so, and he he came out to Philly with
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: his dad for a baseball game. So he's like, we
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: shouldn't meet up. We've only been talking on forums and
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: on the phone, but he didn't want to tell his
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: dad like meeting this random fifteen year old kid. So
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: we first of all, I didn't know what he looked like.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: Second of all, we had to make up a story
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: that of how we met, like in the summer at
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: this camp. So that's what I had to say, And
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: then I met him in front of like the statue
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: for the first time. That was super funny. But we've
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: been close ever since.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: That was like a rom com right now.
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, guys, nothing like meeting grown men
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: or I guess in this case teenagers finding true love
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: on the internet back in the day, bonding over sports betting.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: You get arrested for that in twenty six But.
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: I will say that is part. That is one of
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: the benefits of being in Sindus for song. Some of
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: my closest friends have I've made in this industry because
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: you have something you're so passionate about. It's your hobby,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: your job you spend all your time doing. When you
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: have that in common with someone you know you've you
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: tend to find people with a common interest and get
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: close to them. So some of my closest friends I
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: found being in this industry for so long.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Well, guys, let's dive right into it. The topics that
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: people have been waiting for. Legalization, as Todd mentioned, hit
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: the country in twenty eighteen. For states immediately made it legal,
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: it was a slow trickle after that. I'm in the
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: state of Florida. My state didn't legalize until twenty twenty three.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: I had to find different ways in loopholes to bet
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: as long as I have been since college basically. But Todd,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: what changes have we seen have you noticed in sports
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: betting in general? In market efficiency in the ways that
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: you handicap games since twenty eighteen?
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: Let's be honest here, if none of us had ever
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: sent money to a Central American country via money Graham
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: or nettell or anything else, have you really lived in
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: the sports betting space before the repeal of past hundred
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: million dollar question? The markets are getting a lot more efficient,
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: and I think that is probably the overarching sentiment that
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: you'll talk to betters that have been around in this
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: space for a decade, twenty years, or even longer than that.
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: The edge is the situational spots that all of us
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: were reared on, you know, aren't nearly as prominent right now.
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: So it's being able to be fluid in your approach
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: and not so regimented in terms of going down the
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: border and looking at some of the trends that Evan
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: does such a great job outlining. You know, the days
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: of betting an unranked favorite in college basketball against the
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: team inside the top ten, where your friends thought you
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: were an absolute genius because you were the only knucklehead
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: that wanted to lay one and a half to two
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: points in a college basketball game. You know, those wells
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: have kind of dried up, and as a result, you
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: have to get more and more creative. So, whether it's
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: getting into player props when you're digging into the NFL
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: board on a weekend, week out basis, whether it's looking
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: at derivative markets around the NHL from a total standpoint,
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: first period, et cetera. I think the granular nature of
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: sports betting is there's more and more markets to try
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: and take advantage of, do create opportunities, But at the
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: same time we all have to be cognizant of some
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: of that account preservation that's out there because you may
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: find the best market, you may find the best edges,
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: but if nobody else is betting into those, your will
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: is going to dry up pretty quickly. So how smart
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: can you be? How creative can you get? And unfortunately
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: it's not operating the same way as Gordon Gecko, where
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: greed is good in Wall Street, in the stock market,
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: greed will get you necessarily killed, and pigs gets and
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: hogs gets slaughtered in the sports betting space, especially in
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: the regulated markets.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would just a piggyback off that. I would say,
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: you know, your your main markets have become more efficient. Now,
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: that's going to happen naturally over time anyway. It's it's
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: a market, they're going to become efficial time. But legalization
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: has sped that up. There's just more liquidity, more players.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: But on the flip side, and Todd alluded to this,
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: there's just a massive offering of all of these other
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: bets which you know, a sportsbook is not going to
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: be able to price you know, an assist prop as
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: efficiently as the market will converge on a fair price
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: on an NFL side, So those are I think, you know,
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: there's more opportunities also, you know live betting as well,
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: but the player prop market. But there's there's a reason
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: that the liquidity on those is lower, the limits are lower,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: and they're more attackable. But how do you scale that?
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: That's that's always been the.
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: Question, Evan.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: You mentioned the Todd brought up the trends. It's interesting
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: because I mean, I've I've read your work for years
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: and I have at times in my betting endeavors. Just
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: read your articles and then bet into a market. And
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: I know there are a lot of people out there
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: that do that. Now you already shook your head on this,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: but how have you seen that change in the usefulness
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: of the trends that all the work that you put
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: into all these different sports that we cover, how have
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: you seen that change over the years.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: I think it's as simple as this information. To me
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: is the difference between ten years ago and now when
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: you talked about that question a second ago, and then
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: availability in the markets is another level of this. When
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: you talk about trends, it's just it's information. It's just
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: one little small piece of a puzzle you should be
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: putting together when you're betting something like I think nowadays,
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: as Todd talked about, like a lot of these we
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: used to just do this because no one else realized
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: this is kind of done. The down oh two at
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: home first half thing I think I tweeted about about
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: a week ago, like that was eighty and thirty eight.
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: For a while like that was automatic. It's like now
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: five or six games under five hundred. It's been taken
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: care of, it, it's priced in, it's gone. It's fun
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: to talk about, but it's gone. So I think when
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: talking about some of these trends when doing some of
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: these articles, like I work in the entertainment and content industry,
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: but I'm also trying to find edges when I'm doing
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: all of this work, and it's it's harder when you're
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: just talking about games, right because I think we've now
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: moved into a lot of edges and periods. There's a
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: lot of edges in all over the place, which is
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: made it nicer that there's availability and there's that market
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: even available right now compared to when we just used
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: to sit here with like three four five things. So
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: I think it's more fun, but I think it's a
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: lot more dangerous.
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: As Evan mentioned information, I think that's a great point
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: because when you look at a lot of the forward
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: facing analytics sites that are out there as well, whether
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: we use ken Palm or Bartrovic as kind of the
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: gold standard in college basketball, we look at a money
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: pucker natural statureck for expected goals value in the NHL,
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: Fangrass or Baseball list goes on and on. The betting
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: markets aren't going to be dumb or naive and not
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: incorporate that information into a lot of those top line
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: markets that are out there, because for years you could
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: bet baseball blindly looking for the regression candidates because you
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: didn't think that the ten to fifteen cent adjustments were
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: going to be in there. Now it's almost playing that
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: Devil's advocate, going, all right, how much of this is
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: really baked into the market and have they overcompensated for
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: something so much, to the point that Evan brought up
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: the first quarter in the first half angles in the NBA,
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: Do I want to go completely the other direction because
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: I'm getting an extra half, a point point or a
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: point a half, as the case may be. And kind
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: of going back you mentioned bet the board pop, you know,
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: part of the way that we went about our business.
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: For some of our best bets, we're looking at NFL
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: first half totals knowing that, hey, if a full game
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: totals forty seven, the first half shouldn't be twenty four
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: and a half. Well, now, books hang at twenty three
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: and a half, they hang at twenty three, and when
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: the pendulum starts to swing too far one direction, who's
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: got the guts, the gumption, whatever adjective you want to
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: try and use to go. You know what, We're going
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: to bet it the other way because we think the
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: betting market that is the ultimate arbitrator of efficiency, has
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: swung a little bit too far created opportunities to go
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: in a different direction.
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, cash your tickets. If you had Todd mentioning a
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: first half under in the first fifteen minutes, I know
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: I did, But yeah, I mean you all you mentioned
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: situational spots in college basketball, like it's now you said, oh,
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: who wants to lay one and a half? So sometimes
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: now you're laying like two and a half, three, three
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: and a half, four, And you know everyone is aware
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: of these spots. How about game three? We talked about
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: first half Game three, first halfs with teams down two
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: to oh, think about how how they've evolved over time.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: Game seven unders, I mean that's a great one. Now
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: in hockey there still might be an edge. I don't know,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: eventually they're just going to go to five flat on.
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: There can't be a five and a half.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: But if you just look at the price difference between
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: you know, the previous games and a game seven, I
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: feel like every game seven and hockey still goes under.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: But right is that where the edge is now is
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: just looking at all of those extremely extremely popular trends
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: and if the numbers make sense just going the other way.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: Well, that's that's where having a number comes in to play.
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: And that's not easy to do for everybody. You know,
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: you have to you have to know what is the
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: right number and when and determine when it has gone
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: too far and if it has gone far enough to
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: warrant a bet on the other side. But it's certainly
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: not as there's all these these this low hanging fruit
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: that used to be out there no longer exists and
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: that's just what happens with a market over time, and
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: legalization has certainly sped that up. But there's a lot
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: more offerings where people can attack. And one of the
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: other main differences that I wanted to bring up one
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: because you asked originally, what is the biggest difference in
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: this sports betting world after you know, almost ten years
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: after legalization, one how pervasive and accepted it is the
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: league buy ins, Right, I think about the league stances
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: compared to where they are today, and then I would
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: be your miss if I didn't mention SGPS and like
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: same game parlays lottery style betting. It's just everywhere, and
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: you know you're going to see a lot of data
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: out there on like the public is on this side
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: that doesn't account for you know, most people that aren't betting,
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: you know, with player props and same game parlays are
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: parlaying these favorites and just look, we can get into
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: how bad parlays can be. But that has become that
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: has blown up. The lottery style betting always been around,
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: but now just the scale has astonished me. And if
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: you go on social media, I think we're going to
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: talk about this eventually, that it's everywhere.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about the modeling aspect of things
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: because I am as new as new could be when
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: it comes to this. I mentioned the state of Florida
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: didn't even legalize sports betting n ttil twenty twenty three.
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I didn't start working at Action till twenty twenty or
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: twenty five. I already all lost count of that. I
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: have not been doing this that long, not like you guys.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm talking to some dinosaurs in the market here.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: But what I do in knowing that I'm never gonna
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: beet I'm never gonna beat the math whiz guy. I'm
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: never gonna beat the Harvard Drexel graduate. I'm never gonna
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: beat the guys that have been doing this twenty years
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: longer than me. But Stucky mentioned what my path is,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: and I'm setting this up to tee this back up
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: to you guys. Is I need to create a number
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: for just my own mental framework. I'm trying to create
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: a number that gives me an idea of where the
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: market should be. I think a lot of modelers out
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: there are trying to beat the market with their model.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do that because I know I'm
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: not gonna I want to see you where the number
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: should be and then start to take advantage of some
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: of these edges that we talk about.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: That's the way that I do it.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Todd, what do you do in terms of developing the number?
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Do you try and use that to beat the market?
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: Well, I think the idea of modeling is a little
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: bit nuanced and it depends on the sport quite frankly,
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: because you mentioned, you know, trying to look at the market,
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: see where you think the numbers should be and where
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: it opens up for folks that are new to it.
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: I think the NFL and being able to lean into
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: some of the look ahead numbers is the best vehicle
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: for that. And the reason I say it is because
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: you typically get a lot of the major sports books
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: that'll put out numbers a week in advance. I'm not
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: talking about the full buffet of prices that are out
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: there now for weeks one through seventeen where they're working
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: off of blind power rating. But when you see one
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: result on a field, no matter who the teams are,
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: all right, how much of the markets for just one
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: additional data point from week one to week two is
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: something that we've seen repeatable? Is something an outlier? Was
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: it turnover driven or a variety of other factors, and
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: you can oftentimes identify, at least to a certain extent,
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: some level of inefficiency there, maybe more so than some
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: of the other sports. I'm not a hardcore modeler for
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: most to my betting, by any stretch. It's a lot
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: of qualitative work as much as it is quantitative. NHL
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: is probably the closest I get to modeling out some
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: of my NHL totals, but that just provides a baseline
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: for what I want to start with, and then I'm
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: looking to try and identify some of the other factors
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: that need to be factored into the entire equation, whether
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: it's special teams, a variety of other factors. So I
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: think the idea for new betters trying to model something
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: right off the bat can be rather intimidating. So it's
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: finding a sport that you're comfortable with and gradually building
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: that framework that is going to allow you to simplify
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: your process. And the great part about sports betting is
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: there's tons of different ways that you can kind of
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: approach it. There's the bottom up modeling, there's the top
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: down approach where hey, look, I'm going to monitor some
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: of the sharpest sports books in the world and when
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: they start to move, you know, I'm going to steam
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: chase at my recreational book or with my local and
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: that's how I'm going to identify some of the opportunities
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: that are there. But to your point, I mean, the
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: modeling continues to get more sophisticated. I know we're going
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: to get into prediction markets and such, but you're not
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: going head to head with your fellow handicapper on the
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: other side of the computer and all this. I mean
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: there are sophisticated quants and traders that are there building
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: out the models. So if you think you were going
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: to be that much smarter and that much more sophisticated
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: that if it's Week fifteen in the NFL and you
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: have an NFL side that's five and a half points off,
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: pretty sure your model is busted. And it's not the
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: market being inefficient.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: Brandon's been therefore on the show.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: So I was the one that stands out to me,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: and it was the one, well, well the one that
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: was It was in the playoffs, so it was the
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers and the Eagles. I think I was
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: off by about four or five points. I bet the
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers at plus three. The game closed like
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Eagles minus six, and I wound up winning the bet.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: I wound up winning the bet. It was a horrible bet,
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: horrible bet, horrible bet. But like that, that sort of thing,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: like I've had to check my own ego because I've
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: had to definitely look myself in the mirror and go,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: why in the fuck do you think your we're going
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: to beat guys that have been doing this forever with
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: math degrees, So I definitely have I have been humbled quickly,
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: even in victory.
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: Well, that's another thing that and Tod you mentioned top
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: down betting that has even become much more prevalent and
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: more efficient, right, And yeah, it's not as easy because
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of products and on screens out there,
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: and it's just it's there's more people trying to do that.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: And I will say that. And when it comes to modeling,
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, there's a very very very very small
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: percentage people that are going to be able to, Hey,
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: I'm going to build a model and it's going to
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: beat the market. It's going to beat in the NFL market.
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: It's easier to start now because of AI, right, and
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: it's easier to try and build something. But also the
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: guys who have been there, AI is making it easier
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: for them to iterate on their process and you know,
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: get sharper over time and just improve upon their process.
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: So in order to catch up to that, and what
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: has legalization done, It's brought smarter people into the industry.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: So people always ask me, like, how do I build model?
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Like I am I know that I'm not even going
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: to catch up to some of these and we'll never
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: be able to catch some I have a finance background CFA.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: I mean I was modeling derivatives before I got into
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: when I left to help start Action. So I always
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: just suggest people it's it's you got to if you
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: want to really try to do this seriously and you
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: want to originate like specialization, and you have to go
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: for some of the other things. So if you want
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: to like bet sides and totals and you want to
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: try and figure it out, focus on conference USSA and
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: become just an expert on news injured, you know, schematics
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: and just focus on those teams, or you know, if
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: you want to get into something that's a little more beatable,
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: might not be able to get as much down over time,
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: but then try and build something a specific way to
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: attack player props. And because of the wide offering that
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: we have today, that's a lot more easy to do
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: than it was ten years ago. So I would suggest
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: anyone trying to just get into the game and do
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: a little more seriously like specialization, and just like focus
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: on something a little more beatable with and there's you know,
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: look where there's lower liquidity for a reason, or just
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: focus on one league or one aspect, because it's a
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: difficult endeavor if you just think you're going to come
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: in and build a model to beat the NFL. Not
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: going to happen unless you're a very very very special,
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: one of a kind.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Person, Yeahvin, Or do you land on all of this?
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah? So I think this is kind of simple. Fifteen
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: years ago, I would have said, spend the most time
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: on what they're spending the least amount of time on,
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: because I think what was the way everything was being
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: built was a little different. So like fifteen years ago,
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: maybe I would have said, like naa WNBA totals or
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: something that was just CFL something like maybe it was
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: something that was something like that that just wasn't being
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: computed and added and looked at as carefully as NFL sides.
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: I think today the smaller derivative markets are probably the
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: better angle to take more time into. So that's just
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: one concept. If you don't know how to model, I
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: would say, because the way I started with it, pick
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: your best sport for me, like NFL sides NFL totals,
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: like try to create something that gets reasonably close. And
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: the way I did it was I tried to predict
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: the line myself. I still do it to this day.
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: It is like part of my method. I enjoy doing it.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Try to predict the line yourself. Then see if the
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: model lines up with your line, then see if the
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: line lines up with the market. As soon as those
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: three things start to reasonably marry with each other, I
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: felt like I was getting somewhere, and then you can
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: kind of go into these other places that you want
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: to create a market with. And it's a little copy
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: paste from that point because you've kind of understood the process.
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: That is how I did it. That is the way
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: I look at it.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: And I think, no matter what where you're starting or
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: you are, this would be a plug for the action
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: work AAP. But you can use anything like sure track. Yeah,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: you have to have a cock and you have to
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: have before you, you know, start doing this really seriously,
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: have a track record. See if this is working, See
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: where your weak spots are. You know, you want to
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: track to the market. Are you beating the market? Things
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: like that.
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: That is you can also you can also backgame want
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: have done that? You could do that as well.
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, line shop will always be important. There's a lot
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, there's we're going to talk about prediction markets,
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: but there's lots of books out there, lots of out
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: the easiest thing you can do is get get the
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: best price available. That will you might not most better
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: is recreational betters, then whatever. If you're betting just for fun,
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: you know you're ten bucks a game and you don't
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: really care. But most betters aren't priced sensitive, and there's
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: a a bigger subset that should be And you think, like, ah,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: I'm already logged in on this account. It's just a
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: half point difference. What's that going to matter? Most times
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: it's not, But over the course of a year, five years,
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: that is enormous. That adds up. So I think the
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: simplest thing you can do, which will always be true,
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: is get the best number you can start there. But yeah,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: I would say specialization would still be my Like you
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: mentioned that too, Kevan. There's even people that you know,
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: you could say, hey, I want to focus on and
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: this isn't my specially I know some people that are
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: very successful in doing it, the awards markets and trying
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: to attack those over the course of the year from
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: more from a future's perspective. So there's a lot out
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: there and definitely still edges to be had on some
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: of these other offerings where books might not be spending
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: as much attention.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting because we sometimes we don't know
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: which type of better we're talking to, or are we
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: talking to. Some of the people that are listening are like,
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: good god, there's I'm never going to make a model.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: I don't care. They're the ten.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: Dollars betters that want to slam together a seven leg parlay.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: But then there are those that are maybe they haven't
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: done that, they're interested in it. I have I have
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: put together a very simple a This is a ranking
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: of four types of I'm curious if you guys want
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: to add or subtract to this list. One type is
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: the casual social just likes the idea of having a
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: five dollars wager on something that's one. Two is knowledgeable
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: but with zero discipline. These are the guys that actually
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: know what they're doing, they have, but they get in
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: their own way. Three is the sharp that's just interested.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: They're just as interested in playing to play as they
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: are in playing to win. So I think that is
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: probably a lot of us. And then four of those
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: that are just simply in it for the money. They
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: will just chase any edge that they can find. They
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: do not care their heart is not in it. They've
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: completely ripped it out of their chest. Evan any pushback,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: ad or subtract on my list of four.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: I think one and two are fine. I think three
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: and four tend to blend together a little bit. I
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: would say three is trying to do what four is doing.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Everyone's played this game before. At least we have an
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: action when like we're trying to predict to our audiences
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: and we're creating products, and we're always having this discussion
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: about this person and this hypothetical woman or man. I
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: just think number three and number four are relatively close.
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: So that would be my feedback. If you know the
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: person who's three, who might be like maybe a majority
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: of this group who might also be four's, I think
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: we're all just trying to do the same thing. But
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: there is a difference between the one, two and the
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: three four.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: Ageah, ninety nine percent of people aren't going to build
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: a model and never will ever should, so like we're
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: there's no reason to talk too much about that. Most
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: people are that we're talking to in the content business
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: are you're betting for entertainment and want to win. Now,
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: there's also like the lottery players, there's top down. There's
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: a ton of different segments you can go into. But
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: most people, you know, a lot of people are just hey,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: you go to their job, come home at night. They
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: want to bet. And you know, if you're betting one
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: hundred a game and they wouldn't they would like to
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: win right over the course of the football weekend. It
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: feels good to win a little extra cash in your pocket.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: Those are the people the Recreation Better is that we're serving,
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: and that's who I love who more than most of
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: them my bat I want to win because of all
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: the people that would be potentially following it, and that's
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: who we're serving. And that's like our duty is to
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: do the work to give you know, plus EV picks
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: out over the course of a season and sweat with
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: the people. But most people are recreational betters doing it
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: for fun. There's varying dollar amounts based on you know,
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: your financial situation, your risk collerance, et cetera. But that's
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: mainly who we're serving, and that's who I've been riding
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: with forever and will continue to do so.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Is there is there a profile of sports better that
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: we missed here?
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think a lot of those they're definitely overlaps.
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: So if we're going to use the old school ven
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: diagram and kind of have four circles, I think there
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: is some overlap between all four of those groups. Honestly,
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: And when you hear stuff talk about people that are
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: looking for entertainment that want to win, I mean it
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: may sound counterintuitive, but I almost feel like oftentimes that's
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: diametrically opposed because if people want to be entertained, they're
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: going to bet the marquee games, They're going to bet
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: their standalone games and football season, and those may not
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: offer up the best edges. So I think keeping realistic
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: expectations always has to be a big part of how
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: you go about doing this. If you're a ten dollars better,
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: if you're a hundred dollars better, if you're betting significantly more,
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: just have to understand that there may be stretches where
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: you may not find a bet for three, four or
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: five days, depending on how disciplined an approach you want
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: to try and take. That may not lend itself to
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: the entertainment clientele that's out there that wants to come
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: back home after a long day at work and you know,
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: kick back with an adult beverage and bet a game
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: that's going to be on TV. And again, there's nothing
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: wrong with any of this. You never want a unit
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: shame or anything along those lines. I always kind of
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: come back to just make sure you're setting realistic expectations
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: for yourself and if you want to be a winning
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: better understand, Unfortunately the kind of sacrifices it may take
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: to try and get you to that level and realize,
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: you know, and economic terms, no such thing as a
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: free lunch, and there's always going to be opportunity, a cost,
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: costs associated with a lot of these decisions.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: I don't think a lot of people think about what
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: the end game is, and it's a question that I
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: don't think I even ask myself all that often, is
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: what are we trying to do at the end of
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: all of this.
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: I think it's a phenomenal question and one that kind
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: of goes back to, you know, bankrolls above all else
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: in terms of what people want to try and allocate
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: for whatever sport they're going to bet. I know, we
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: keep coming back to football season because that's where the
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: majority of recreational players are. But I'm sure you guys
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: have these same discussions with people and they go, well,
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: you know, I've never really bet football before. How much
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: money I go, I can't tell you if it's a
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: thousand dollars, if it's five, ten thousand. But you walk
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: them through the intricacies of say Kelly criterion and go, well,
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: if you have one thousand dollars, you know one percent
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: of your bankroll should be a ten dollars bet. The
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: response that I always get is well, that's not fun.
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: What's the point? I go, well, okay, then I know
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: how to tailor my discussion and I understand how much
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: breath that I should expending to try and walk some
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: of those folks through the nuances of what it takes.
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: Because people are sold to bill of goods, they want
• 32:06
  Speaker 5: to try and think that they're going to go out
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: there and hit the Grand Slam and land one hundred
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: to one future shot. But being successful in sports betting
• 32:12
  Speaker 5: is much more about being Tony Gwynn and baseball, it's
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: stringing together singles over and over and over again, and
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: by the end of the season, end of two years,
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: end of five years, you're going to have more money
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: in your bank roll than you started with, and your
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: confidence grows as a result, and you'll have the opportunity
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: to take some of those bigger shots to get those
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: exponential returns.
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and there also there is no endgame for a
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: lot of people. I mean, I think the median vet
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: size in the US is what fifty dollars third.
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: Or fifty dollars aggressive you guys may.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Well find I think like a third of bets are
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: under twenty five dollars or so. Most people it's just
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: it's just entertainment for them, and they would be a
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: little bit more informed and that's their content. But that
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: these are the sports fans are hobbies and this ad
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: sid so it's like coming home and for a lot
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: of people running a movie, going to the movies, right,
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: and it just enhances your experience. And that's what most
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: people are doing, is they're betting. Many betters are very small,
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: just adds to their experience of watching a game. It'd
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: be nice if they won, and it's just separate from
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: like there's also people that just start taking a lot
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: of shots as well. But for most people, there's no endgame,
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: and it's just entertainment and they love sports and betting
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: on it enhances their experience and if they can be
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: a little bit more informed from content out there, then great.
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: I do think there's something to like recreational discipline, which
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: is what I've told some people before, Like you want
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: to put twenty five bucks on the game because it's
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: the game that maybe someone you follow really likes, and
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: you also want to put in some home run parlays.
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: That's great, put some two dollars, some four dollars, like
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: try to win that bet that makes your money back,
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: and then have some fun. And if that's a good
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: night for you, then that's awesome because that feels like
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: you've kind of run both gammu's a little bit efficiently.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: That's the way I look at it.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: And I mean, guys, look, I'm around some of the
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: folks out here. I mean just sat in our panel
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: yesterday at the International Gaming Institute Weekly Ordeal that UNLV
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: puts on annually, and they have one of the responsible
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: gaming officers for DraftKings that's up there talking about gamification.
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: And that's the real approach to a lot of the
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: stuff that's there. Sportsbooks want to try and offer you
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: a menu and product and want to give people a
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: way that they can engage with sports. To your point, stuck.
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're just looking for an enhancement two of
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: their viewing vehicle of sports that they're already going to
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: be watching anyways. And so I always think, you know,
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: being responsible with your bank roll, being disciplined in your
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: approach is the best way to try and do it.
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: I mean, how we had the perfect illustration of a
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: college football quarterback and won't be playing a sport that
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: was betting a dollar fifty to two dollars a pop
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: and had over ten thousand bets during the course of
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: his time as a quarterback at Indiana and Cincinnati recently.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, going pitch by pitch, you mentioned.
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: Being responsible betting on twenty twenty two Indiana Football.
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: Not responsible, not responsible? Yeah, that's fair.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: A lot has changed in sports betting. What won't change
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: in the next ten years is that I'll still be
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: betting at DraftKings. More to come, but first the word
• 34:59
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  Speaker 2: All right, let's go around the horn here. How is
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: everyone using prediction markets? Are you using them? Are you
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: using it for just sports? Have we gone beyond that?
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: I think every once in a while I'll have Evan
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: chirpping in my ear about some obscure market that he's
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: looking at on the prediction market. So Todd, we'll start
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: with you. Or do you land on prediction markets? How
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: much do you use them? And how do you use them?
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: So I have not been on prediction markets myself as
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: a Nevada resident or fortunately that's not a sports betting
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: vehicle that we actually have at our disposal, But I'd
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: be foolish not to pay attention to a lot of
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: the markets the way some of these prices move, not
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: just in the sports realm, but you know the political
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: side of things and anything else that we always discussed
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: that a market is going to be much more efficient
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: as we start to see increase liquidity. So if people
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: are willing to put their money where their mouth is,
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: I think it's a vehicle that all of us would
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: be foolish to ignore. I don't think prediction markets are
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: going away in any capacity whatsoever. We see a lot
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: of the big traditional national sportsbook operators looking to roll
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: out their prediction platforms and be more and more aggressive
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: with their offerings as everyone tries to figure out the
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: legality across various states. But prediction markets, look, they've been
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: around for a long long time, more so in the
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: financial markets that I think stuck. It speak to significantly
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: more eloquently and from an educational perspective than I can,
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: but I think they serve as a complement to the
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: traditional sports betting model that's out there, and I think
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: people have access to a variety of tools to try
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: and take advantage of. From a betting standpoint, they should
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: be utilizing everything that's out there. So for folks who
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: think that prediction models are going to be a flash
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: in the pan, I think they're only kidding themselves. Now,
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: what the prediction model market will look like eighteen months
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: from now or maybe even by the time football season
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: rolls around remains anybody's best guess.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: I would say that. I mean, I'm shocked how much
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: it's grown, like just how quickly. I mean, we've gone
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: from what monthly volume was like one point two billion
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: and early twenty twenty five and I think we're up
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: over twenty billion per month now or at least earlier
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: this year we were. And so I mean it's definitely
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: grown that. The legislation is going to be fascinating. The
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: regulatory like it's is it, you know, it's sports gamming.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: State states handle sports scam but on the federal level
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: you have the CFTC, which regulates event based contracts. Is
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: this sports game and this is going to go on
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: and on. It's probably going to go to the Supreme
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: Court eventually, maybe in a couple of years get set up,
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: So that'll be fascinating to watch administration changes. I think
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: there's a lot that that's going to go on, and
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: because I mean, if you look at the volumes on
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: prediction markets, I think seventy percent are from a voyume perspective,
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: are from people in states where betting is not legal.
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: So does it speed up the legalization process. It's going
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: to be fascinating to watch. But one of the most
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: alluring parts of the of prediction markets are that you're
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: not going to get limited right, some of these sports
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: books out there, one of their most effective tools for
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: sharper betters is you can flip the switch on them
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: and that that doesn't happen. It's a completely different structure
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: with an exchange. So if you're looking to get more
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: down on sports, the prediction markets are definitely going to
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: be enticing to you. So, yeah, them to that sports
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: I have not done. There's a ton, There's there's a
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: lot that's intriguing about them, like just they yes, no
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: aspect of everything right, and then just the ability to
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: create markets and we're just at the tip of the
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: iceberg and where that could potentially go and the offerings
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: that you could see there. And you know, earlier prop
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: markets talked about prop betting markets getting getting access to
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: them earlier in the week. But a funny story. I
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: haven't gone into like some of the the other nuanced stuff,
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: and I do think there needs to be regulation around
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: some of this to prevent some of the insider trading
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: and some of the things that maybe we shouldn't be
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: betting on. But that's neither here nor there. I did
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: make a wager last October. I don't know when it was.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: It was during football season. I was talking with Anthony
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: de Bundo, used to work for us now at the Ringer,
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: and he's in the politics and he tells me, you
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: know a lot of value on this guy in California,
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: and I was like, all right, So I threw a
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: chunk of change at the California governor and you know,
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: you could watch the value of my position go up.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: One day, I logged in and it was at zero,
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: and I was like, what the hell happened? And my
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: only political bet on the prediction market was on Eric
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: Swalwell to win the California governor's race. Who is no
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: longer in the race, so maybe it's not for me.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we had a recent story of I guess survive.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: I'm not a Survivor watcher, so if I get any
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: of this wrong, I apologize. But the favorite was it
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: ninety percent on prediction markets when the season started. There's
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: like twenty plus people on Survivor.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: How are you in? Ninety percent favorite? And then that
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: individual went on to win.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Well, all this stuff is pre taped, and so the
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: insider trading aspect of it is something that is definitely
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: going to be looked at. We've already seen the state
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: of Minnesota ban prediction markets. Do you're not allowed in
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: that state anymore? Todd mentioned Nevada has put the X
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: on that. Evan, how do you handle prediction markets?
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: By the way, ban that, I say band TV show
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: betting for one reason because it ruins the TV show.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: A lot of Survivor fans. We're not happy.
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: If you're a survive If you're a Survivor fan, you
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: shouldn't be going up to see what the price is.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Yes, but you might run into it, like you might
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: see you point, you might.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: See you're on you're on the fan group. Stud come on.
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: I mean, look, if you're in the Reddit sub chats
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: and you're a survivor super fan hoping that the winner
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: doesn't get disclosed before the season starts, you may have
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: bigger fish to fry, and you may need to talk
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: to the right people to try and get you down
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: off that ledge.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that might not be our audience, right, It.
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: Maybe stucks audience. I don't know.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: I used to run Real World betting pools, so not
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: real World to challenge for.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: I wish I could bet on a t r L
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: ranking of music videos. There's a throwback.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Oh that would have definitely been on what's going to
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: be the number one.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: Cash on something sync props.
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: But anyway, there's markets right now on Netflix shows like
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: there definitely would have been anything any popular sho would
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: have market. I'll just say this off the bat. I
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: think it's a great option as a person who is
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: in New York, in Vegas and Jersey like, more options
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: the better, So I think it's more than Marianne fantastic.
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: I think the thing that's interesting is if you use
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: like stock platforms, like say like an interactive brokers or
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: something of that nature, and you start to see them
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: dabbling into the prediction space, you start to notice what
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: markets are being moved over. Then you notice the pop
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: culture stuff, like the thing that actually can't be regulated
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: isn't being offered by these other regulated platforms. So I
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: think once we get to a point where this does
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: have some of that regular regulation government like a lot
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: of those things will be stripped by the side and
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: you will have the geopolitical election like things that maybe
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: belong on these platforms more than others. But right now,
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: wild wild West, I will say this is just a
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: great option. Like in his example last night, I bet
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: on Oklahoma City to have under four losses in the
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: playoffs live. I bet it, and then I show old
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: shares within twenty four hours. Like, to me, that is
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: an amazing thing that you can't really do without that platform.
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: Like I don't even know if that market's available on DraftKings.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: I honestly didn't look. But to me, that is what
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: this brings to the table. That is just a great
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: another option.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: And it's another option for pricing too, Like if you're
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: looking at you mentioned shop for the best price, right,
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: there's there's another And it has a lot of liquidity
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: in some of these main markets. You want to get
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: the best price. It's another option there. I will say,
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: there's and if you are like, hey, I'm really into music,
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: there's opportunities there to But I will say be careful
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: on just if you're just waiting into some of that knowing,
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: you know, be careful of adverse selection and knowing who
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: you're going up against, who the counterparty is. And it's
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: not like because there's a lot of people just think
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: about it like, oh, it's peer to peer, so I'm
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: just betting like my neighbor down the street. Not necessarily
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: always the case, and especially in some of those more
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: nuanced markets.
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: To your point, Stuck, if it's an information based market,
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: be very careful in terms of who you're trying to
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: match it with on the other side of the ledger,
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: whether it's Super Bowl entertainment or what have you. But
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: I also think, guys, there's a very real world where
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: we're looking at prediction markets that are no longer a
• 44:09
  Speaker 5: part of the sports betting landscape, and the CFTC continues
• 44:12
  Speaker 5: to be able to use it for entertainment, politics and equities, etc.
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: But that sports end up getting siloed, and it'll be
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: very interesting to see if that takes hold in the
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: landscape sooner rather than later, because that's that one aspect
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: of the prediction markets right now that represents such a
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: huge growth potential, but at the same time appears to
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: be the most contentious on a variety of fronts as well.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: Quick vote from the panel. Do we think prediction markets
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: exist in their current form in five years?
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: Todd?
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna say yes because I'll paint with broad strokes Stucky.
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll say yes, especially now that you have some
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: of the other players, you're traditional players waiting into those waters.
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: But what I bet on it, I have no idea,
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: and it's like it's gonna.
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: Be to market out of prediction market right now.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: For you to bet on it, that's great, that's breaking
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: the fourth wall.
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it'll be. I think we won't see anything
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: radical happen for at least a couple of years as
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: far as change. If if something does happen, and I
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: think it ultimately will go to the Supreme Court. But
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: I'll say yes, and it's going to be. I mean,
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: look how far we've come just in a year. It's
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: this is going to be rapidly evolving and growing, and
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: you're also going to get just from the product, like
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: I think we'll. I think the product is not as
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: good like for recreational betting, like just the UX, it's
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: not as good as if you're going to go to DraftKings.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: But over time, especially as some of these other books
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: like that, that will that advantage will be eroded away.
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: But there we could go down so many different radicals.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: But I'll answer instead of Ramon, I'll just say yes
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: for now.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Evan stuck.
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: It's also more complicated right now than it has to be,
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: and that's something that it'll be make it it'll be
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: easier over time for the consumer. My answer is this,
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: nothing will change drastically for the next two and a
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: half years, and then after that two and a half
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: year mark, I think it gets stripped down and stays
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: the way it is. I think elections, geopolitical, like all
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: certain different things like that will be there. I think
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: Todd's right, the sports stuff could get stripped. I think
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: the pop culture stuff could move to another avenue. But
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: I do think that type of product continues on its path.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, tend to agree with Evan. I think it looks
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: completely different in five years. Todd Furman, thanks for the time.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Part two coming up with Todd tomorrow, so they'll go anywhere.
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: Thanks Todd, appreciate you guys having me.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode of The Favorite.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: Shout out to our guest Todd Furman, producers David Payne
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: and Gifford Gold. We are back with more of our
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: Betting Round Table tomorrow right here on the Action Network
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: YouTube page or wherever you download your Favorite podcast. Today's
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: show has been presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: It's you soon. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: hundred Gambler