Economic Cycles and Recession Prediction

Beyond Budgeting Navigate Your Financial Future · Jul 7, 2026 · 11m

Economies expand and contract in patterns that repeat across centuries, yet predicting turning points remains notoriously difficult. This episode examines economic cycles—what causes expansions to end, what triggers recessions, and what precedes recoveries. The discussion covers leading economic indicators, yield curve inversions, and other signals that supposedly predict recessions, examining their historical accuracy. Real examples trace multiple recessions, showing what warning signs appeared beforehand and why they were often ignored. The episode addresses the controversial question of…