Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / Week 7 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games!

Transcript

Week 7 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

0:00
Speaker 1: 15 more games, and guys, the injury report this week
0:03
Speaker 1: reads like a hospital waiting room on the 4th of July.
0:07
Speaker 1: Y'all know what I'm talking about. Back it up, Terry.
0:11
Speaker 1: UCLA went to Eugene last week. They beat Oregon. They
0:13
Speaker 1: moved to 5-0. Everybody starts talking playoffs, and they lose
0:17
Speaker 1: their starting quarterback for the season. That's right. Washington's quarterback
0:22
Speaker 1: walked off with a shoulder injury, and the Huskies are
0:24
Speaker 1: already down a bunch of running backs. They might have
0:28
Speaker 1: looked better with this backup quarterback. Just throwing it out there.
0:33
Speaker 1: Mississippi State's quarterback, he was spotted in a walking boot
0:36
Speaker 1: heading into this week. Kansas State might be heading into
0:38
Speaker 1: the Sunflower Showdown with its third-string quarterback. Meanwhile, Pat Fitzgerald
0:43
Speaker 1: coaches against the Northwestern program that he helped build. Lane
0:46
Speaker 1: Kiffin gets his old offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby. Deion Sanders
0:51
Speaker 1: gets the Utah team that hung 53 on him in
0:53
Speaker 1: Boulder last year. And my numbers? They got opinions, right?
0:58
Speaker 1: Two spreads... that it thinks are off by eight points
1:01
Speaker 1: or more. One game where the model flips the favorite.
1:05
Speaker 1: Two lowest totals on the board. Like my model says
1:07
Speaker 1: both of them are about seven points too low. This
1:11
Speaker 1: is the next 15. Let's go cash some tickets. Winning
1:14
Speaker 1: Cures Everything, proudly presented by PrizePix, starts right now. Welcome in.
1:22
Speaker 1: This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast
1:25
Speaker 1: proudly presented by PrizePix. I'm your host, Gary Seegers, at
1:30
Speaker 1: GaryWCE on all the socials. If you didn't already know,
1:33
Speaker 1: the weeknight game videos along with all the individual games
1:37
Speaker 1: that I'm going to discuss here, they're all being posted
1:39
Speaker 1: to the other YouTube channel, which, pop that thing up there. Yeah,
1:46
Speaker 1: WCE Picks. So we're getting close to 1,000 subscribers. Do
1:50
Speaker 1: me a favor. There's a link in the description. Click
1:52
Speaker 1: on that. Go subscribe over there as well because I
1:55
Speaker 1: am offering some stuff over there notably the weeknight games,
1:59
Speaker 1: that I'm not putting in the videos over here. So,
2:01
Speaker 1: subscribe to youtube.com slash WCE picks. Alright, let's check out
2:09
Speaker 1: last week's record and the overall season record. And last
2:14
Speaker 1: week did not exactly do us any favors. I think
2:16
Speaker 1: that's the easiest way to say that. Last week, show
2:19
Speaker 1: went 15 and 16. Those are my official picks. The
2:23
Speaker 1: model went 10 and 22 last week. Underdog picks went 8-7,
2:29
Speaker 1: so that was a little bit better. The weeknight picks,
2:32
Speaker 1: I went 4-2 on those. The model went 1-6. The
2:37
Speaker 1: G5 games, or G6 games, are really, really difficult. I'll
2:40
Speaker 1: tell you that. The next 15, I went 5-10. The
2:43
Speaker 1: model went 3-12. The 10 best, I went 6-4. The
2:44
Speaker 1: model went 6-4 as well. I mean, it is what
2:46
Speaker 1: it is, right? Yeah. Some weeks you do pretty well,
2:55
Speaker 1: some weeks you don't. On the season, we're still doing
2:58
Speaker 1: pretty well. 83-65 for the official show picks. For my picks,
3:01
Speaker 1: that's 56.1%. The model took a big hit last week.
3:06
Speaker 1: 80-68 now, 54.1%. And underdog picks on the year, 56.3%.
3:10
Speaker 1: We're going to see if we can pick that record
3:15
Speaker 1: up this week. Game number 11, we start in Waco, Texas.
3:19
Speaker 1: TCU at Baylor, 6 o'clock Central Time, God's Time Zone.
3:24
Speaker 1: On FS1, Baylor by 5.5 is what they're currently favored by,
3:27
Speaker 1: a total of 48.5. It opened 6.5. Total has dropped
3:31
Speaker 1: four full points from 52.5. This is the revivalry. Baylor
3:36
Speaker 1: wants payback for a 42-36 loss in Fort Worth last year.
3:40
Speaker 1: Both teams coming off of a bye. Baylor is 4-1.
3:43
Speaker 1: They hung 55 on Arizona State. TCU, 2-3. They've lost
3:48
Speaker 1: three out of their last four. The model has Baylor
3:51
Speaker 1: by 7.25. The power rating has them by 5.7, so
3:56
Speaker 1: a small lean to the Bears here. The model total
3:59
Speaker 1: is 46.84. That is a little under. It makes sense
4:02
Speaker 1: that this thing has dropped from 52.5 down. The matchup
4:06
Speaker 1: to watch here, TCU's passing success rate, which you can
4:10
Speaker 1: see right here, 127th in the country. They run for 3.65
4:17
Speaker 1: yards per carry, which you can see right here. That
4:20
Speaker 1: is 120th. In the country, Baylor's defense, 6th in rushing
4:26
Speaker 1: success allowed, 4th in points allowed per drive. That's pretty awesome.
4:31
Speaker 1: Baylor's doing a good job on defense. Baylor's offense ain't
4:34
Speaker 1: exactly clean either. 97th in success rate, 116th turning red
4:38
Speaker 1: zone trips into touchdowns, which you can see right here.
4:43
Speaker 1: Offensive red zone touchdown rate, 116th. Now, they get there
4:47
Speaker 1: a lot, which is good. Number 13 in red zone
4:50
Speaker 1: appearances per game. Baylor runs more plays than anybody in America,
4:54
Speaker 1: while TCU ranks 124th. So you got a tempo offense
4:58
Speaker 1: with Jake Spavitol. And on the other side, where's my pace?
5:03
Speaker 1: There we go. Plays per minute, number four. TCU, number 97.
5:10
Speaker 1: I mean, it's clear as day. Clear as day. Jake
5:14
Speaker 1: Spavitol on offense. And old Gordon over there. What's Gordon's name?
5:21
Speaker 1: Gordon Sammis, former UConn offensive coordinator. He came over, joined Sonny.
5:27
Speaker 1: Offense has not been great. We'll call it that. Special teams,
5:32
Speaker 1: Baylor decided advantage here. Ninth in SB Plus special teams efficiency.
5:37
Speaker 1: TCU is number 99. And now TCU's kicker, Kyle Limmerman,
5:41
Speaker 1: is out for this game. TCU also missing two corners,
5:45
Speaker 1: two offensive linemen, a linebacker, defensive tackle, receiver, running back.
5:49
Speaker 1: I mean, they got injuries everywhere. Baylor lost a safety
5:52
Speaker 1: and a defensive lineman for the season, plus a corner,
5:55
Speaker 1: a receiver, and an offensive lineman. So they got some
5:58
Speaker 1: dudes out as well. As far as trends, TCU off
6:01
Speaker 1: of a straight-up loss is 7-3. That's pretty good. I mean,
6:08
Speaker 1: that ain't bad. Now, we do have a bye week here,
6:10
Speaker 1: so I did not look that up to see what
6:13
Speaker 1: that is. But weather's going to be 70 degrees and dry.
6:17
Speaker 1: The points lean Baylor, and they lean under. And I
6:22
Speaker 1: think that's the direction I'm going to go. I don't
6:23
Speaker 1: trust this TCU team for nothing. Give me Baylor minus 5.5.
6:29
Speaker 1: I think anything under a touchdown I'd feel pretty good
6:31
Speaker 1: about because I don't think TCU is going to be
6:34
Speaker 1: able to score here. So, Baylor minus 5.5. Game number 12,
6:39
Speaker 1: Virginia at SMU. We've got an ACC showdown. This one's
6:42
Speaker 1: at 11 a.m. Central on the CW. SMU favored by 8.5.
6:45
Speaker 1: That's up a full point since Monday. Total still sitting
6:49
Speaker 1: at 52.5. Virginia 4-2 after rallying past Syracuse 28-25. SMU
6:56
Speaker 1: is 4-1. They're coming off a bye. These two met
6:59
Speaker 1: once back in 2024. SMU demolished them 33-7. Here's the spot.
7:04
Speaker 1: Virginia hosts Duke next Friday night on a short week.
7:07
Speaker 1: SMU gets Cal. I don't think either one of these
7:10
Speaker 1: teams are going to be looking ahead, but if anybody was,
7:12
Speaker 1: I think it'd probably be Virginia. I still don't expect it.
7:17
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be amped up for this one.
7:18
Speaker 1: My model has SMU favored by 5.49. Power rating has
7:23
Speaker 1: SMU minus 5.4. So that's a couple of points of
7:27
Speaker 1: value on Virginia there. The total I've got right on
7:30
Speaker 1: the number. So 52.5 is the total. I've got it
7:33
Speaker 1: at 53.04. The model likes Virginia because of turnovers and discipline,
7:39
Speaker 1: at least from what I can tell. Virginia is 12th
7:42
Speaker 1: in turnover margin. SMU is 122nd. Virginia does not turn
7:47
Speaker 1: the ball over. Number four in giveaways per game. SMU
7:49
Speaker 1: is number 118 in giveaways per game. SMU's red zone
7:53
Speaker 1: defense gives up scores 91% of the time, which is 109th,
8:00
Speaker 1: which you can see right there. It's not like Virginia's
8:04
Speaker 1: is a whole lot better at 89th. Neither one of
8:06
Speaker 1: them can really convert in the red zone. 107th for SMU.
8:08
Speaker 1: Virginia is 118th. And if you just look at who
8:16
Speaker 1: can finish drives, that's the biggest thing. Points per scoring opportunity,
8:21
Speaker 1: SMU is 75th. Virginia's defense is 86th. And on the
8:25
Speaker 1: other side, Virginia, 51st in points per scoring opportunity. SMU
8:29
Speaker 1: is 82nd. Now, you look at special teams, Virginia 40th.
8:35
Speaker 1: SMU is 123th. I mean, there's all kinds of intangibles
8:38
Speaker 1: that point towards Virginia here. But SMU's offense... is just
8:43
Speaker 1: absolutely legit. Number 17 in offensive success rate, number 29 passing,
8:47
Speaker 1: number 60 rushing. The injury report cuts into that Virginia
8:50
Speaker 1: lean a little bit, though. Cavaliers missing four defensive linemen,
8:53
Speaker 1: their top corner, their top safety, receiver, and an offensive lineman,
8:57
Speaker 1: and a running back is suspended. SMU missing a safety,
9:00
Speaker 1: a corner, a linebacker, a defensive end, and a running back,
9:03
Speaker 1: and they've got three more starters that are newly questionable.
9:06
Speaker 1: Their kicker, Nick Reed, is out on top of that
9:08
Speaker 1: bad special teams unit. But in some cases, maybe that
9:13
Speaker 1: can actually improve things. Just saying. As far as trends,
9:17
Speaker 1: Virginia as an underdog is 8-5 over 13 games. That's
9:21
Speaker 1: against the number. Weather's going to be 64 degrees and breezy.
9:25
Speaker 1: At the numbers point, Virginia, I need to know if
9:28
Speaker 1: Bo Pribula can actually throw the football or not. Right?
9:32
Speaker 1: They had been able to run the ball. They've not
9:34
Speaker 1: been able to throw it previously. They're number 108 in
9:37
Speaker 1: passing success rate, but number 32 in passing explosion. This
9:40
Speaker 1: SMU defense is good against the pass. They ain't real
9:43
Speaker 1: good against the run, right? The defensive line list makes
9:49
Speaker 1: it a smaller play than the model thinks. I'm not
9:52
Speaker 1: actually going to play this, but as far as show
9:55
Speaker 1: purposes go, this thing's over a touchdown. I'll take Virginia.
9:59
Speaker 1: Give me Virginia. plus 7.5. Utah at Colorado, 9.15 p.m.
10:05
Speaker 1: Central on ESPN. Utah favored by 15.5. I think that's
10:09
Speaker 1: what they were last week. Total is 49, so it's
10:12
Speaker 1: come down to 1.5. Utah 5-0. They are 4-0-1 against
10:13
Speaker 1: the number five. Thus far, against the closing number in
10:19
Speaker 1: Morgan Scali's first year, they're fresh off a 41-24 win
10:22
Speaker 1: over Kansas. Colorado 2-3, they're coming off of a bye.
10:26
Speaker 1: They've scored seven points in each of their last two losses.
10:30
Speaker 1: Last year, Utah won this game 53-7. So, the Buffs
10:36
Speaker 1: maybe have revenge on their minds. Are they talented enough
10:38
Speaker 1: to be able to do anything about it? Probably not.
10:42
Speaker 1: Probably not. Stats model has Utah favored by 22.35 points.
10:47
Speaker 1: That's almost 7 points over the market. Power rating says 15. So,
10:52
Speaker 1: the two models don't exactly agree. The total dropped to 49.
10:55
Speaker 1: The model is about a point and a half over that.
10:57
Speaker 1: It's 50.38 for my total. The stats say that this
11:01
Speaker 1: is a mismatch. A big-time mismatch. Utah's scoring margin is
11:06
Speaker 1: plus 29.8. That is fifth in the country. Points per
11:10
Speaker 1: game margin here. Colorado is 116 in points per game margin.
11:17
Speaker 1: As far as first half margin, Utah is fourth at
11:22
Speaker 1: plus 19.2. Colorado is 107 at minus 6.7. Now, let
11:30
Speaker 1: me go on and bring this up because who you
11:33
Speaker 1: have played matters, and Colorado has had a significantly more
11:36
Speaker 1: difficult schedule than Utah. If you look up here, Utah
11:40
Speaker 1: number 82 in Sager and Strength schedule, Colorado number 13.
11:46
Speaker 1: So that's pretty difficult. But if you really dive into it, Utah,
11:51
Speaker 1: number 121 in opponent PPA margin faced. Number 14 for Colorado.
11:57
Speaker 1: As far as offenses faced, Colorado has faced the 20th
12:00
Speaker 1: most difficult schedule of offenses. Utah, 131st. Utah's defense has
12:07
Speaker 1: faced the 78th toughest schedule. Or sorry, Utah has faced
12:11
Speaker 1: the 78th toughest defenses in the country. Colorado, number 33.
12:15
Speaker 1: So Colorado has faced significantly harder competition than Utah has. However, Colorado,
12:22
Speaker 1: number 133 in turnover margin. They are 136 in giveaways
12:26
Speaker 1: per game. They can't stop turning the ball over. On
12:29
Speaker 1: the other side, Utah, number 26 in turnover margin. Number
12:32
Speaker 1: 36 in giveaways per game. Number 25 in takeaways. They're
12:35
Speaker 1: pretty good at generating turnovers. Colorado, 132nd in penalties. Nine
12:41
Speaker 1: a game. Utah is 47th there. Colorado, not dead last,
12:47
Speaker 1: but close. 133 in offensive red zone conversion percentage, 64.29%.
12:54
Speaker 1: Utah significantly better, and Utah's defense has been awesome. Colorado
13:00
Speaker 1: gets kind of worn down after halftime. Minus 9.5 in
13:06
Speaker 1: second half point margin. That is 123rd in the country.
13:08
Speaker 1: Utah is number 34 at plus 5. Injuries make it worse.
13:15
Speaker 1: Utah's basically healthy. Colorado has six defenders out or questionable.
13:19
Speaker 1: That includes their best player, defensive lineman Lamont Lester Jr.
13:22
Speaker 1: He's questionable. Plus, you've got a receiver, offensive lineman out, etc.
13:26
Speaker 1: Deion as an underdog. 7-11 against the number over the
13:30
Speaker 1: past 18 games. Weather's going to be 58 degrees and calm.
13:34
Speaker 1: The numbers point towards Utah. My power rating is right
13:38
Speaker 1: at the number, but... I don't see any way that
13:44
Speaker 1: Colorado stops this offense for Utah, and I don't think
13:48
Speaker 1: they can score. I don't think Utah is going to
13:51
Speaker 1: allow them to score. So Colorado, number 134 in points
13:55
Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, they can't finish drives. And Utah's defense
14:00
Speaker 1: is number 14. So even though they have faced tougher competition,
14:05
Speaker 1: sometimes a team just ain't good. And I don't think
14:07
Speaker 1: Colorado's any good. So Utah, they're going on the road here.
14:12
Speaker 1: I don't think it matters. Give me the Utes minus
14:15
Speaker 1: 15 and a half for the official show play. All right,
14:18
Speaker 1: quick timeout. We're three games in. I've already thrown a
14:20
Speaker 1: mountain of stats and injury reports at you, which means
14:23
Speaker 1: you're the kind of person I would get along with.
14:25
Speaker 1: And prize picks gives you another way to put that
14:29
Speaker 1: homework to work. You build player picks lineups with more
14:33
Speaker 1: or less on player stat projections, or you check out
14:36
Speaker 1: college football spreads and totals through team picks because they
14:39
Speaker 1: do in fact have those. PlayerPix has been trusted by
14:42
Speaker 1: more than 20 million fans to turn sports knowledge into cash.
14:45
Speaker 1: Almost all of the U.S. population can currently make sports
14:48
Speaker 1: and culture picks to earn real money on PrizePix. Make
14:51
Speaker 1: sure and check out the whole Where I Can Play
14:53
Speaker 1: page for your state's options and age requirements. But here's
14:57
Speaker 1: the new customer offer. When you use the promo code WCE,
15:01
Speaker 1: if you play $ 5, you get $ 150 in bonus lineups
15:05
Speaker 1: if you win your first qualifying lineup. Visit prizepix.com, download
15:10
Speaker 1: the app, Remember to use that promo code WCE when
15:13
Speaker 1: you're signing up. Offer terms apply, of course, but keep
15:17
Speaker 1: it fun and play responsibly. All right, back to it.
15:21
Speaker 1: We got an ACC showdown. Georgia Tech going to Virginia Tech,
15:25
Speaker 1: going to Lane Stadium. Sorry, 2.30 p.m. Central on the
15:29
Speaker 1: ACC Network. Hokies by 9.5 here. Total 57.5. That's up
15:34
Speaker 1: four points from the open. Open 53.5 by the time
15:38
Speaker 1: I printed these things out on Monday morning. It was
15:41
Speaker 1: up to 55.5. Now on Tuesday, it is up to 57.5.
15:45
Speaker 1: That's crazy. James Franklin's Hokies started 4-0. They've now lost
15:49
Speaker 1: two straight. They lost to Pitt at home on a
15:52
Speaker 1: field goal that everybody thought was pretty good. Then they
15:55
Speaker 1: go to Cal, and the defense can't get a stop.
15:59
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech just beat Duke. Georgia Tech won this game
16:03
Speaker 1: 35-20 last year, so we've got a revenge spot here
16:06
Speaker 1: for Virginia Tech. Although the Hokies go to Clemson next week.
16:11
Speaker 1: my model has Virginia tech favored by 11.06. The power
16:15
Speaker 1: rating has them by 8.0. We're basically on the numbers,
16:19
Speaker 1: split the difference, right? The total is where I lean. Um,
16:23
Speaker 1: I've got it at 53.6, which is where it started.
16:29
Speaker 1: I'm not sure why there's so much love for the
16:31
Speaker 1: over here, but either way, Virginia tech 17th and available
16:35
Speaker 1: yards margin. Um, Net points per drive, they're 27th. Georgia
16:42
Speaker 1: Tech is 84th. You start looking at strength of schedule,
16:45
Speaker 1: stuff like that. Let's break down the Hokies' run defense.
16:51
Speaker 1: They're pretty good at stopping the run. Number 11 in
16:56
Speaker 1: yards allowed per rush. Number 29 in rushing success rate allowed.
17:00
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, they are number 62 in rushing success rate.
17:04
Speaker 1: They are number 90 in yards per rush. But they
17:06
Speaker 1: can throw the ball a little bit. They're number 65
17:09
Speaker 1: in PPA per pass. Virginia Tech's defense is number 90.
17:12
Speaker 1: They are number 60 in QBR. Virginia Tech's defense is
17:15
Speaker 1: number 82. On the other side, Virginia Tech's offense, way
17:19
Speaker 1: better than Georgia Tech's defense. Way, way better as far
17:23
Speaker 1: as throwing the football. Running it, Virginia Tech can't run
17:26
Speaker 1: the ball. I mean, just not good. When you look
17:29
Speaker 1: at what they're able to do in the first half
17:31
Speaker 1: and whatnot, Virginia Tech number 17 in first half point margin.
17:35
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech number 66. Second half, both of them just
17:37
Speaker 1: fall off a cliff. I mean, just ridiculous. Both teams
17:40
Speaker 1: are sloppy. Virginia Tech, number 127 in turnover margin. Georgia Tech,
17:45
Speaker 1: number 109. Georgia Tech, though, is because they don't really
17:49
Speaker 1: generate a lot of takeaways. Number 136 in takeaways per game.
17:52
Speaker 1: They're number 46 in giveaways per game, so they don't
17:55
Speaker 1: exactly turn it over much. Virginia Tech, they give it
18:00
Speaker 1: away a lot, and they don't take it away at all.
18:04
Speaker 1: It's not good. Georgia Tech number 128 in penalties per game.
18:07
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech number 105. I mean, this could be a really,
18:09
Speaker 1: really messy game. Really messy. The injury report is the
18:13
Speaker 1: story here. Virginia Tech, four defensive ends out, plus their
18:17
Speaker 1: top running back Malachi Hosley. Two offensive linemen and a
18:20
Speaker 1: corner out. Virginia Tech has got three offensive linemen out.
18:23
Speaker 1: It's top two receivers. It's top running back, a linebacker, corner.
18:28
Speaker 1: They've got a defensive lineman. So Georgia Tech's pass rush
18:32
Speaker 1: is gutted. But Virginia Tech may not have the playmakers
18:35
Speaker 1: to take advantage of this. Franklin as a home favorite
18:41
Speaker 1: 6-9 over the past 15. 6-9 against the number. Wind
18:45
Speaker 1: is going to be a gust of up to 25
18:48
Speaker 1: miles per hour. 53 degrees. Should be kind of nice.
18:54
Speaker 1: But windy. So I don't know what that's going to
18:56
Speaker 1: do to the passing game. I wouldn't bet this because
19:01
Speaker 1: I don't know what the... what the weather is really
19:03
Speaker 1: going to be like, I'd probably lean to the under
19:07
Speaker 1: here because I don't trust either one of these teams. Uh,
19:11
Speaker 1: in Virginia tech with Clemson on deck, who knows? Uh,
19:15
Speaker 1: but here on this show, we make picks, right? We
19:19
Speaker 1: make picks. So my show pick on this Georgia tech
19:23
Speaker 1: is feeling a little bit better about themselves. Virginia tech
19:25
Speaker 1: is trying to get off the schneid, but they got
19:27
Speaker 1: a little bit of a look ahead. Uh, I would
19:31
Speaker 1: wait and see if this thing got to 10, but
19:33
Speaker 1: right now we're just sitting on 9.5. Give me Georgia
19:35
Speaker 1: Tech on the road plus 9.5. I think they can
19:40
Speaker 1: hang around a little bit. So I will take the
19:43
Speaker 1: Yellow Jackets. Going against the stat spread, but sticking with
19:48
Speaker 1: the power rating. Georgia Tech plus 9.5. 9.5. Friday night,
19:52
Speaker 1: we've got a Big Ten battle. Washington goes to Purdue.
19:55
Speaker 1: 7 o'clock Central on Fox. Purdue favored by 3.5 points here.
20:00
Speaker 1: Total of 53.5. That's up 2 since Monday. The spread
20:04
Speaker 1: opened at 2.5. It's jumped up a little bit. Barry
20:07
Speaker 1: Odom has got Purdue rolling. They won at Illinois. They
20:10
Speaker 1: smoked Minnesota 41-13 last week. Washington started 3-0, didn't look
20:14
Speaker 1: good in any of them. They've lost three straight games now.
20:17
Speaker 1: Washington won this game 49-13 last year. Both of these
20:21
Speaker 1: teams have a bye next week, so there's no look-ahead
20:23
Speaker 1: spot or anything. They can both empty the clip here.
20:25
Speaker 1: My model has Purdue by under two points, minus 1.83.
20:28
Speaker 1: My power rating has Purdue favored by 0.9. So I'm
20:34
Speaker 1: showing some value on Washington, uh, And I've got a
20:38
Speaker 1: total of 54 on this, 53.99. The market has moved
20:43
Speaker 1: right to it. Purdue's defense, 129th in points per drive.
20:50
Speaker 1: They're 131 in PPA allowed per drive, number 128 in
20:57
Speaker 1: PPA allowed per play, number 123 in success rate. They
21:02
Speaker 1: give up 5.1 yards per carry if we dive down
21:06
Speaker 1: and look at this. number 122 in the country. That's
21:10
Speaker 1: a defense that you would want to run on. The
21:12
Speaker 1: problem is that Washington runs for 3.13 yards per carry,
21:15
Speaker 1: which is 132nd in the country. Special teams go to Purdue.
21:19
Speaker 1: They are 5th in special teams efficiency at SP +.
21:22
Speaker 1: Washington is 79th. And the headline of this week is
21:26
Speaker 1: that DeMond Williams Jr. is questionable with a shoulder injury
21:29
Speaker 1: from the Iowa game. Elijah Brown came in and finished
21:31
Speaker 1: that one. And I think he looked better. We'll see
21:37
Speaker 1: what happens with that, but he certainly looked better coming in. Now,
21:40
Speaker 1: it could be a situation kind of like Dylan Rayola.
21:43
Speaker 1: He came in in relief of Dante Moore in that
21:45
Speaker 1: USC game, looked lights out. Last week, he comes in.
21:48
Speaker 1: He is the starter. He goes 6 of 19 with
21:51
Speaker 1: three turnovers, and it is what it is, right? They
21:54
Speaker 1: had to bring in the third-string guy. Maybe that's what
21:57
Speaker 1: happens with Elijah Brown here. Elijah Brown also doesn't have
22:00
Speaker 1: any running backs to help him out here. They got
22:04
Speaker 1: four running backs out, plus they got a corner. a safety,
22:07
Speaker 1: a receiver out, Purdue missing two DBs, an offensive lineman,
22:10
Speaker 1: and a tight end. As for trends, Washington as an underdog,
22:14
Speaker 1: 2-8 against the spread, but Washington off of a straight-up
22:19
Speaker 1: loss is 8-4 against the spread. Odom coming off of
22:23
Speaker 1: a win, he's 9-5 against the number. So, I mean,
22:27
Speaker 1: the trends are what they are. There's not any one
22:31
Speaker 1: that you can really lean on other than the fact
22:33
Speaker 1: that Washington just typically does not play well as an
22:36
Speaker 1: underdog and especially moving over to the East coast, which
22:41
Speaker 1: I mean, Purdue is not exactly East coast, but you
22:43
Speaker 1: get the point. Uh, they're, they're moving time zones. We'll
22:46
Speaker 1: say that the model leans Washington. I wouldn't feel great
22:52
Speaker 1: about it, but man, do you feel good about Purdue
22:55
Speaker 1: laying more than a field goal at home against a
22:57
Speaker 1: team that is a number 22 and overall talent rank?
23:03
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't, um, I would watch for injury
23:06
Speaker 1: reports and whatnot. I am going to take Washington here.
23:11
Speaker 1: This is such a bad idea. That's such a bad idea.
23:16
Speaker 1: I had every intention of taking Washington and rolling with
23:21
Speaker 1: the model on this. I'm going against the model. Give
23:25
Speaker 1: me Purdue. Minus three and a half. I'll chase the steam,
23:28
Speaker 1: I guess, a little bit. But I can't trust Washington
23:31
Speaker 1: to do anything right now. So. Watch the injury reports,
23:35
Speaker 1: see what's going on, but give me Purdue minus three
23:38
Speaker 1: and a half. Want extra Winning Cures Everything content and
23:43
Speaker 1: a way to support the show directly? Head over to buymeacoffee.com
23:46
Speaker 1: slash winningcures and become part of the community today. Are
23:52
Speaker 1: you tired of sore knees or joints slowing you down?
23:55
Speaker 1: Ghost Leaves uses built-in kinesiology tape technology to give you support,
24:00
Speaker 1: reduce pain, and help you recover faster. Use code WCE
24:04
Speaker 1: for 15% off over at ghostleaves.com. Game number 16 to
24:09
Speaker 1: the SEC we go. Kentucky travels to Norman, Oklahoma to
24:13
Speaker 1: take on the Sooners here. 6.30 p.m. Central Time on
24:16
Speaker 1: the SEC Network. Sooners favored by 6.5 here, total 44.5.
24:21
Speaker 1: That's up a point from what it was on Monday.
24:24
Speaker 1: Kentucky 5-1 in Will Stein's first year. They've won back-to-back
24:27
Speaker 1: games by one point. That's at South Carolina, then at
24:31
Speaker 1: home over LSU last week. Both of them going for
24:33
Speaker 1: two after the first overtime. Oklahoma just beat Texas. 27-24.
24:38
Speaker 1: This is a classic letdown spot for the Sooners. But
24:46
Speaker 1: it's also a classic letdown spot for Kentucky. My model
24:49
Speaker 1: has Oklahoma favored by 4.6. It got a couple of
24:52
Speaker 1: points on Kentucky here. The total is the big one.
24:55
Speaker 1: The model says 51.2. Market says 44.5. I mean, that is...
25:03
Speaker 1: A big, big total gap here. But, you know, the
25:09
Speaker 1: number did come up. I mean, I would imagine you're
25:15
Speaker 1: probably going to, like, if Oklahoma was going to be
25:17
Speaker 1: able to score on somebody, it'd probably be this Kentucky defense, right?
25:20
Speaker 1: The market sees an Oklahoma offense that's 127th in success rate,
25:25
Speaker 1: number 131 in PPA per drive. They run fewer plays
25:28
Speaker 1: than anybody in America, and it thinks under. But Kentucky's
25:32
Speaker 1: offense is 21st in success rate, and Kentucky's defense is 116th,
25:36
Speaker 1: and they allow 28 points per game. That is 108
25:40
Speaker 1: in the country. Kentucky 9th in turnover margin. Oklahoma is 122nd.
25:46
Speaker 1: I mean, just ridiculous. Sooners are a second-half team. They
25:50
Speaker 1: are 13th after halftime. They are 98th before, which you
25:53
Speaker 1: can see right down here. Kentucky, just kind of middle
25:58
Speaker 1: of the road. Both halves, it is what it is.
26:00
Speaker 1: Injury report fits and over. Oklahoma's got three offensive linemen out,
26:04
Speaker 1: but their top receiver, Terrell Harris, a running back. Let
26:09
Speaker 1: me take that back. They've got three offensive linemen out
26:13
Speaker 1: and their top receiver, Terrell Harris, a running back, a
26:15
Speaker 1: tight end, and a linebacker, and a defensive back. Kentucky
26:19
Speaker 1: missing three linebackers, two defensive backs, a defensive lineman, and
26:23
Speaker 1: an offensive lineman. That's a bad defense that's missing five pieces. So,
26:30
Speaker 1: As far as trends, Oklahoma off of a straight-up win,
26:32
Speaker 1: 6-12 against the spread over 18 games. 60 degrees, calm
26:37
Speaker 1: is what we're looking at for the weather. Numbers point
26:40
Speaker 1: towards Kentucky, plus the points. I kind of like the
26:45
Speaker 1: over on this, but I don't feel great about anything
26:50
Speaker 1: about this. I mean, who knows what version of these
26:52
Speaker 1: teams show up. Power rating, Oklahoma minus 5.3. Stats model,
26:57
Speaker 1: Oklahoma minus 4.6. The line is Oklahoma minus 6.5. I'm
27:03
Speaker 1: going to bite right into it. Just show enough. Show enough.
27:08
Speaker 1: Give me Kentucky plus 6.5 at Oklahoma. They've been doing
27:14
Speaker 1: it all year. I mean, Will Stein and company, they
27:16
Speaker 1: are 5-1 against the number. Oklahoma is 2-3. If you
27:21
Speaker 1: keep playing up to that level of expectation, Kentucky should
27:26
Speaker 1: hang around here. I'll go with the Wildcats, plus 6.5.
27:31
Speaker 1: Big Ten primetime at the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin goes to UCLA, 6.30 p.m.
27:37
Speaker 1: Central on NBC and Peacock. UCLA favored by 2.5 here.
27:42
Speaker 1: Total of 44.5. Sorry, UCLA favored by 2. That total
27:44
Speaker 1: has dropped 2 since Monday. Total is 44.5 now. UCLA 5-0.
27:48
Speaker 1: They are 5-0 against the spread under Bob Chesney. They
27:57
Speaker 1: just won at Oregon 17-15. But, and here's the bad news,
28:02
Speaker 1: everybody was talking about playoffs for UCLA. Nico Iamalieva hurt
28:07
Speaker 1: his knee in that game. He's out for the season. So,
28:09
Speaker 1: they've got Cal Poly transfer Ty Dieffenbach. He likely starts.
28:14
Speaker 1: He turned it over three times in relief at Oregon.
28:17
Speaker 1: Wisconsin is 4-1. They're coming off a bye. They've got
28:20
Speaker 1: USC next week. I don't think this is a look-ahead spot,
28:24
Speaker 1: especially with as good as UCLA has been. But... Just
28:28
Speaker 1: throwing that out there. My model has UCLA favored by 10.65.
28:31
Speaker 1: That's my stats model. The power rating has UCLA minus 8.1.
28:38
Speaker 1: The market is at 2. But the model was built
28:42
Speaker 1: with Nico playing. And the market has only moved 1.5
28:47
Speaker 1: points since he went down. I don't know. I don't
28:56
Speaker 1: trust the model or the power rating at this point. UCLA,
28:58
Speaker 1: second in the country in turnover margin, second in second-half margin.
29:05
Speaker 1: Here we go, turnover margin. UCLA, right there, number 84
29:07
Speaker 1: in giveaways per game, but they are number one in
29:10
Speaker 1: takeaways per game. And good gracious, the Maryland game, Oregon
29:15
Speaker 1: turning it over, what, seven times against them last week?
29:18
Speaker 1: I mean, just what are the odds, right? On the
29:22
Speaker 1: other side, Wisconsin, number 96 in turnover margin, number 70
29:26
Speaker 1: in giveaways per game, but they don't generate takeaways at all. Like,
29:30
Speaker 1: no turnovers. Number 116 there. uh ucla number two and
29:36
Speaker 1: second half margin but wisconsin is number 31 there so
29:42
Speaker 1: not a huge difference between the two both tend to
29:45
Speaker 1: play pretty well no matter the half is what it
29:49
Speaker 1: is um wisconsin number 21 in defensive success rate ucla
29:55
Speaker 1: number nine in defensive success rate so you got two
29:58
Speaker 1: pretty good defenses here UCLA's offense, I'm curious to see
30:02
Speaker 1: what they're going to look like with Dieffenbach. But Wisconsin's offense,
30:06
Speaker 1: number 123 in offensive success rate, just not great at all.
30:13
Speaker 1: Not great. UCLA's weakness penalties, number 136, averaging 9.8 penalties
30:20
Speaker 1: per game, number 134 in penalty yards per game. Wisconsin
30:24
Speaker 1: is number 47 in penalties per game. They are... they're
30:30
Speaker 1: horrible at getting opponents to commit penalties. They're number 137.
30:34
Speaker 1: Opponents only commit 3.6 penalties per game against them. So
30:39
Speaker 1: curious to see what this is going to look like.
30:41
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's offense, 123rd in success rate. I mentioned they have
30:45
Speaker 1: scored every time they have reached the red zone though.
30:47
Speaker 1: Number one in offense, red zone conversion percentage, but the
30:51
Speaker 1: number 109 and offense red zone touchdown rate. And they
30:54
Speaker 1: don't exactly get down there a lot. They're number 98
30:55
Speaker 1: in red zone appearances per game. Only three, um, And
31:00
Speaker 1: yet they're 4-1. 3-2 against the spread. It's not bad.
31:05
Speaker 1: Beyond the quarterback, UCLA is missing two receivers, a defensive
31:08
Speaker 1: lineman and an offensive lineman. Wisconsin, they're missing a corner,
31:12
Speaker 1: an offensive lineman and a defensive lineman. And their top
31:15
Speaker 1: running back, Abu Sama III, is questionable. That ain't good.
31:20
Speaker 1: I imagine he's going to play, but still. As far
31:23
Speaker 1: as trends, Bob Chesney coming off of a win. 14-9
31:25
Speaker 1: and 1 against the spread over 24 games. That's a
31:27
Speaker 1: pretty good sample size. It's supposed to be 84 degrees
31:30
Speaker 1: at kickoff in LA. 84 degrees. This is crazy. The
31:37
Speaker 1: numbers point to UCLA, but at about half of the
31:40
Speaker 1: strength that the model shows. This one's a smaller play
31:43
Speaker 1: for me. Wisconsin should be able to slow down the
31:48
Speaker 1: rushing attack of UCLA. Because you don't have to worry
31:52
Speaker 1: so much about the pass, I don't think. I still
31:56
Speaker 1: think UCLA is good enough to be able to get
31:58
Speaker 1: this one. The fact that this thing's down to two now,
32:02
Speaker 1: it's not that I'm necessarily going with the model. I
32:04
Speaker 1: just think too many people are on Wisconsin this week.
32:07
Speaker 1: I will take UCLA minus two at home on Saturday night.
32:13
Speaker 1: I think they win the game by at least a
32:15
Speaker 1: field goal. Chesney and company will have something figured out here.
32:19
Speaker 1: So UCLA minus two. Big 12 showdown, Texas Tech. At home,
32:26
Speaker 1: hosting the only team that beat them in the Big
32:28
Speaker 1: 12 last year, Arizona State. This one, 2.30 p.m. Central
32:31
Speaker 1: Time on Fox. The Red Raiders favored by 14.5. There
32:35
Speaker 1: we go. We got it pulled up now. Total of 49.5
32:40
Speaker 1: on this, and that total has come up a little bit.
32:45
Speaker 1: Tech 5-0. Coming off a bye. The revenge angle is
32:49
Speaker 1: pretty real. Arizona State beat them 26-22 last year. It
32:53
Speaker 1: was their only regular season loss. My model has Texas
32:56
Speaker 1: Tech by 22.03. The power rating has Tech by 19.5.
33:00
Speaker 1: That's seven and a half points over the market. And
33:06
Speaker 1: both models agree on this. Like the model is, the total, sorry,
33:10
Speaker 1: the model total is 53.7. That's about four points over
33:14
Speaker 1: the current total. So I can understand why it's going up.
33:19
Speaker 1: The best stat here, Texas Tech plus 15.8 in the
33:22
Speaker 1: second half. That is first in the country. So they
33:26
Speaker 1: just kind of opened up a can in the second half,
33:29
Speaker 1: and Arizona State is number 120 in the second half,
33:32
Speaker 1: minus 8.7. That's not good. Tech allows just 16 points
33:37
Speaker 1: per game. It's good for number 22 in the country.
33:41
Speaker 1: Arizona State, they allow almost 28 points a game. That's 106th,
33:47
Speaker 1: so that Arizona State defense is not great. As far
33:50
Speaker 1: as special teams, Tech number 19, Arizona State number 105,
33:55
Speaker 1: Arizona State's injury report is brutal. Here, three offensive linemen out,
33:59
Speaker 1: four players out for the season. They've got a tight end,
34:01
Speaker 1: defensive lineman, defensive back, and a linebacker, plus another defensive
34:04
Speaker 1: back out and a running back that's questionable. Tech's got
34:07
Speaker 1: some new names. They've got a running back that's out,
34:10
Speaker 1: plus a safety and a receiver that's doubtful, but I
34:12
Speaker 1: don't feel like it changes a whole lot with them.
34:15
Speaker 1: As far as trends go, Texas Tech against the Big 12,
34:18
Speaker 1: 16-4-1 against the spread over 21 games. As a home favorite,
34:23
Speaker 1: they're 11-4-1. It's supposed to be 60 degrees, kind of
34:26
Speaker 1: nice in Lubbock. And I think they want to open
34:31
Speaker 1: a can here. Numbers certainly lean Texas Tech minus the points.
34:36
Speaker 1: It leans to the over. I have a feeling that
34:41
Speaker 1: they are going to open a can here. Looking at
34:44
Speaker 1: the current strength of schedule and whatnot, Tech has actually
34:47
Speaker 1: played a pretty decent schedule. As far as the offenses,
34:51
Speaker 1: Arizona State has faced... Number 113 there. Tech number 54.
34:55
Speaker 1: I think Oregon State is doing a lot of work there.
34:59
Speaker 1: Oregon State and Houston. But for Arizona State, number 113
35:03
Speaker 1: in offensive PPA faced. Number 25 in defensive PPA faced.
35:07
Speaker 1: So you can understand why the offense doesn't look great
35:10
Speaker 1: for Arizona State. But the defense, aside from the passing defense,
35:19
Speaker 1: and they can't really... I mean, the havoc rate is
35:21
Speaker 1: only number 90. Look, I'm looking for all kinds of
35:25
Speaker 1: different ways to at least give you some kind of
35:27
Speaker 1: hope if you're an Arizona State fan. I got nothing
35:30
Speaker 1: for you. I feel like this may be the game
35:32
Speaker 1: where we finally see Texas Tech kind of break out
35:34
Speaker 1: of it. They haven't looked great thus far this year.
35:38
Speaker 1: I think they're going to look really good here. Give
35:40
Speaker 1: me Texas Tech, minus 15.5. I think they cover this
35:46
Speaker 1: number pretty easily. Mississippi State goes to LSU. 11 a.m.
35:51
Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on ESPN. Tigers favored by 13.5 here,
35:56
Speaker 1: total of 58.5. That opened 10.5. It is a three-point
36:00
Speaker 1: move towards LSU. Lane Kiffin gets to do battle against
36:04
Speaker 1: his old offensive coordinator, Jeff Lebby, here. LSU, they just
36:07
Speaker 1: lost 35-34 at Kentucky, so you know that they are
36:11
Speaker 1: foaming at the mouth for this one. Mississippi State, 4-1.
36:14
Speaker 1: They're coming off a bye after just getting drilled by
36:17
Speaker 1: Alabama at home. Biggest spread gap on the card here.
36:21
Speaker 1: My stats model has LSU by only 2.5. That is
36:24
Speaker 1: 11 points on Mississippi State. My power rating has LSU
36:29
Speaker 1: by 10.4. That's pretty close to the market, so the
36:31
Speaker 1: model is pretty split here. On paper, LSU should win
36:35
Speaker 1: this thing, right? You would think. Second in defensive success rate,
36:40
Speaker 1: third in available yards, second in offensive line versus defensive line,
36:46
Speaker 1: third in the country after halftime. But State plays fast.
36:50
Speaker 1: Their special teams rank 12th to LSU's 91st. And LSU
36:55
Speaker 1: is 2-4 against the numbers so far this year. So
36:58
Speaker 1: they have not exactly been playing up to expectation. The
37:02
Speaker 1: catch here is Mississippi State's two best players, their quarterback
37:06
Speaker 1: Camario Taylor and the running back Fluff Bothwell, both are
37:09
Speaker 1: questionable for this game. Taylor was spotted in a walking boot.
37:13
Speaker 1: Levy calls him day-to-day. State also missing a linebacker and
37:16
Speaker 1: a receiver. They've got another linebacker that's doubtful. They're down
37:19
Speaker 1: three defensive linemen. LSU's got four players out for the season.
37:22
Speaker 1: We already knew about those guys. Plus, they've got two
37:25
Speaker 1: starting linebackers and a tight end out. LSU as a
37:28
Speaker 1: home favorite of 10-plus, only 2-8 against the spread over
37:33
Speaker 1: the last three years. LSU off of a loss is
37:36
Speaker 1: also 2-8 against the spread. Mississippi State as a road dog,
37:40
Speaker 1: 8-3 against the number. So, the numbers certainly point towards
37:46
Speaker 1: Mississippi State plus the points. But I think that's if
37:50
Speaker 1: Taylor plays. If he doesn't, I think the edge mostly
37:53
Speaker 1: goes away, but I'll admit, I don't even know what
37:56
Speaker 1: to expect from the backup quarterback here. I don't think
38:01
Speaker 1: he's that good. And it feels like this entire offense
38:04
Speaker 1: is predicated around Kamario Taylor. I would stay away from
38:10
Speaker 1: this one if I were you. But if Kamario Taylor
38:16
Speaker 1: is just going to sit in the pocket and he's
38:17
Speaker 1: not going to be able to run, it wouldn't matter
38:20
Speaker 1: if they had Fluff Bothwell or not. I'm going to
38:23
Speaker 1: go against the model here. I'm going to go LSU
38:28
Speaker 1: minus the 13.5. I think that losing to Kentucky last week,
38:34
Speaker 1: this bunch is fired up. And I think you saw
38:38
Speaker 1: against Alabama, when Mississippi State goes against really good talent,
38:43
Speaker 1: they could have problems. And LSU certainly has talent. So
38:47
Speaker 1: I will take LSU minus 13.5. Game number 20, we
38:53
Speaker 1: got the Pat Fitzgerald Bowl. Northwestern going to Michigan State,
38:57
Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone. This one's on Peacock. Yeah,
39:02
Speaker 1: you got to get your streamers out for this one.
39:04
Speaker 1: Wildcats favored by seven. Now total is 47.5. That opened
39:08
Speaker 1: at 9.5. The money has been on Sparty here. The
39:11
Speaker 1: story is obviously Pat Fitzgerald. It's him going up against
39:15
Speaker 1: the Northwestern program he coached for 17 years. David Braun
39:18
Speaker 1: was his defensive coordinator. He now has the Wildcats at 4-1.
39:22
Speaker 1: That includes a 34-13 win over Penn State. Michigan State, 3-3.
39:26
Speaker 1: They just lost by one to Illinois. My model has
39:30
Speaker 1: Northwestern by 13.43. The power rating has Northwestern minus 8.7,
39:36
Speaker 1: so you're looking at a lot of points on the
39:38
Speaker 1: Wildcats here, and the line keeps moving the other way. Northwestern,
39:42
Speaker 1: number 8 in turnover margin. Michigan State is number 117.
39:48
Speaker 1: Sparty is number 126 in PPA margin. Northwestern is number
39:53
Speaker 1: 17 here. And Michigan State's red zone defense, they allow
39:59
Speaker 1: scores on 95% of red zone trips. 93rd in red
40:05
Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate allowed. Northwestern, on the other hand, I mean,
40:10
Speaker 1: they get down to the red zone. It is money.
40:12
Speaker 1: Same thing on defense. Number 15 in red zone touchdown
40:14
Speaker 1: rate allowed. Number 18 in red zone touchdown rate converted
40:18
Speaker 1: when they're on offense. This Northwestern team is really good.
40:22
Speaker 1: Four and one against the spread. Michigan State has played
40:25
Speaker 1: a significantly tougher schedule than Northwestern has. Northwestern number 73
40:30
Speaker 1: in opponent PBA margin. Michigan State 17. Michigan State has
40:35
Speaker 1: faced some good offenses. Number eight most difficult schedule of
40:38
Speaker 1: offenses faced. Northwestern number 77. Michigan State number 21 most
40:42
Speaker 1: difficult schedule of defenses faced. And Northwestern number 70. However,
40:50
Speaker 1: you start looking into five factors plus strength of schedule
40:52
Speaker 1: plus talent rank. Northwestern number 22. Michigan State number 50. So,
41:00
Speaker 1: breaking this thing down. The one thing that Michigan State
41:04
Speaker 1: does well is they stay out of trouble as far
41:06
Speaker 1: as penalties go. They're number six in penalties per game.
41:08
Speaker 1: Northwestern is number 121. Michigan State's quarterback Cam Fancher is out.
41:15
Speaker 1: Their top running back, both top corners, linebacker, tight end,
41:18
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, two more linebackers questionable. Northwestern's got three DBs
41:24
Speaker 1: questionable or doubtful. That includes their best one, Braden Turner,
41:27
Speaker 1: plus two defensive linemen, a receiver, a tight end, and
41:32
Speaker 1: offensive lineman are all out. Michigan State, over the last
41:37
Speaker 1: 19 games as an underdog, 12-7 against the spread. That's
41:40
Speaker 1: the case for Sparty here. Supposed to be 47 degrees.
41:44
Speaker 1: Finally feels like fall up there. This thing's at a touchdown,
41:50
Speaker 1: and I understand that Pat Fitzgerald wants to get back
41:52
Speaker 1: at Northwestern. These things rarely go the way that you
41:57
Speaker 1: would think. Now, they did with Ole Miss, but Northwestern
42:02
Speaker 1: feels like such a better football team than Michigan State.
42:08
Speaker 1: I'm going to ride with Northwestern. I can get it
42:10
Speaker 1: at a touchdown. Northwestern, minus seven. I think they handle business.
42:16
Speaker 1: against Pat Fitzgerald and company, you just look at the
42:20
Speaker 1: PPA margin, the success rate, everything else. I know Northwestern's
42:25
Speaker 1: defense isn't great, but I think they're good enough to
42:28
Speaker 1: be able to handle Michigan State. And when you start
42:31
Speaker 1: looking at number 76, rushing success allowed, this, number 106
42:39
Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per pass, Northwestern's number 7, Northwestern number
42:44
Speaker 1: 5 in yards per pass attempt, Michigan State's defense, number 102.
42:48
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just night and day difference. So give
42:52
Speaker 1: me the Northwestern Wildcats minus seven. All right, tomorrow's Thursday.
42:57
Speaker 1: That means TJ and Jason are going to be right
42:59
Speaker 1: here on the Winning Cures Everything YouTube channel at 9 a.m.
43:03
Speaker 1: Central with Three Dog Thursday. They've gone 10-2 the last
43:08
Speaker 1: two weeks, picking underdogs to cover. That includes seven outright
43:11
Speaker 1: dog winners. So hit subscribe, hit the notification bell, And
43:16
Speaker 1: make sure to tune in 9 a.m. Central Time, God's
43:18
Speaker 1: Time Zone, for Three Dog Thursday on the Winning Cures
43:21
Speaker 1: Everything YouTube channel. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more. The latest
43:25
Speaker 1: WCE merch is now available. Support and rep your favorite
43:30
Speaker 1: college football show today. Just visit winningcureseverything.com slash store. Game
43:36
Speaker 1: number 21, we had an ACC rivalry. North Carolina at Duke.
43:40
Speaker 1: They're playing for the Victory Bell at 2.30 p.m. Central
43:43
Speaker 1: Time on ESPN2. Duke favored by three right now. We
43:47
Speaker 1: got a total of 47.5 on this one. Duke won
43:50
Speaker 1: 32-25 in Chapel Hill last year, and they kept the bell.
43:53
Speaker 1: This year, Duke 4-1. That's after a three-point loss at
43:57
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. Bill Belichick's Tar Heels, 3-2. They just won
44:01
Speaker 1: at Pitt. Now, one spot to note here, Duke plays
44:04
Speaker 1: at Virginia next Friday on a short week. I don't
44:08
Speaker 1: think anybody's overlooking this one, though. My model has Duke
44:10
Speaker 1: favored by 10, 10.17 here. Power rating has Duke minus 7.4.
44:17
Speaker 1: That's seven points on the Blue Devils. I mean, this
44:21
Speaker 1: stuff is wild when you really look at it. The
44:25
Speaker 1: numbers certainly favor Duke. PPA margin, number 28. North Carolina
44:30
Speaker 1: is number 64. Duke is number 23 in PPA per
44:33
Speaker 1: drive on offense. North Carolina's offense, number 93. That's with
44:38
Speaker 1: Bobby Petrino. I mean, good gracious. Duke allows 14 points
44:41
Speaker 1: a game. That is 13th in the country. But North
44:46
Speaker 1: Carolina's defense ain't too bad either. Number 34 giving up
44:49
Speaker 1: 19 points a game. Carolina only scores 23 points per game.
44:53
Speaker 1: That's 100th in the country. Belichick's teams don't beat themselves, though.
44:57
Speaker 1: They are number 3 in penalties per game. Duke is
44:59
Speaker 1: number 113. As far as turnover margin, North Carolina number 82.
45:03
Speaker 1: They're 101 in giveaways per game. That ain't great. That
45:06
Speaker 1: ain't great. Injury report's pretty wild here. North Carolina's got
45:14
Speaker 1: four defensive linemen out. Their best one, Isaiah Johnson, is
45:17
Speaker 1: going to be a game-time decision. You add a defensive
45:20
Speaker 1: back and an offensive lineman, they've got a tight end out.
45:23
Speaker 1: They've got a receiver suspended. Duke is missing three receivers,
45:27
Speaker 1: three offensive linemen, and a linebacker. And they're missing their kicker.
45:33
Speaker 1: Salas is the kicker. Losing your kicker in a game
45:36
Speaker 1: this line to exactly a field goal I think probably matters.
45:40
Speaker 1: They're number 51 in special teams efficiency. North Carolina's number 74,
45:47
Speaker 1: if you can see it highlighted up there. There we go.
45:51
Speaker 1: As far as trends, Duke in conference, 13-4-2 against the
45:56
Speaker 1: spread over the last 19. North Carolina off a straight-up win,
45:59
Speaker 1: 2-10 against the spread. You're going to have north winds
46:03
Speaker 1: gusting here to 25 miles per hour. The biggest thing
46:08
Speaker 1: to look at, I think, is Duke running the football.
46:11
Speaker 1: They run it about 55% of the time. That is
46:15
Speaker 1: 31st in the country. They're number 17 in yards per rush,
46:18
Speaker 1: but they're only number 97 in rushing success rate. So
46:21
Speaker 1: Shepard is awesome, number 16 in rushing explosiveness, but this
46:25
Speaker 1: North Carolina defense, even though they're not great at defending
46:28
Speaker 1: the run, they're number 82 in PPA allowed per rush,
46:31
Speaker 1: but they are number 14 in rushing explosiveness allowed. What
46:36
Speaker 1: should we expect out of this team, right? Petrino going
46:41
Speaker 1: up against this Duke defense. Duke defense hasn't been bad.
46:44
Speaker 1: I mean, Manny Diaz tends to have fairly good defenses.
46:47
Speaker 1: Number 53 in defensive success rate. Number 54 in defensive
46:51
Speaker 1: PPA allowed per drive. But here's the difference, right? You
46:56
Speaker 1: look at strength of schedule. Sagarin has North Carolina at
46:59
Speaker 1: number 110. It's got Duke at number 92. When you
47:03
Speaker 1: really dive into it, though, Duke has played the 137th
47:09
Speaker 1: most difficult schedule that is next to last. Like the
47:12
Speaker 1: easiest possible schedule of opponent PPA margin. North Carolina, number 21.
47:18
Speaker 1: So there is a difference in the strength of schedule.
47:21
Speaker 1: North Carolina has faced some really good defenses. Duke has not. Duke,
47:25
Speaker 1: number 138. So the worst, the easiest schedule of defenses
47:34
Speaker 1: faced for Duke and the most difficult for North Carolina.
47:38
Speaker 1: That's pretty crazy. That's wild when you really look at it.
47:45
Speaker 1: The model is way off of the number here. And
47:49
Speaker 1: I understand why. The money is coming in on North Carolina.
47:54
Speaker 1: I kind of trust it a little bit. Give me
47:57
Speaker 1: the fight in Belichick's. I'm going against the model. I'm
48:01
Speaker 1: going against the power rating. I think North Carolina gets
48:04
Speaker 1: this thing done. I don't think Duke is nearly as
48:06
Speaker 1: good as... what they appeared to be early on. Sir,
48:11
Speaker 1: they look good against bad teams. I don't think North
48:14
Speaker 1: Carolina is what you would consider a bad team. I
48:16
Speaker 1: think they're an average team with a fairly good defense,
48:21
Speaker 1: and I think they're going to win this game outright.
48:24
Speaker 1: So give me North Carolina plus three. Game number 22,
48:28
Speaker 1: we go to the Sunbelt. Georgia State heads to James Madison.
48:31
Speaker 1: This one in 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone
48:34
Speaker 1: game on ESPNU. James Madison favored by 11 points, total
48:39
Speaker 1: of 59 and a half. The total has been bet
48:42
Speaker 1: up five points from the open. Went right through my number, right?
48:49
Speaker 1: I mean, that's, boy, that's wild. That's wild. Um, Five
48:56
Speaker 1: points from the open. James Madison is 6-0 under Billy Napier.
49:00
Speaker 1: Georgia State 4-1. They're scoring 39 points a game, and
49:04
Speaker 1: Georgia State's coming off of a bye. JMU won this
49:07
Speaker 1: one last year 14-7, and that Georgia State team last
49:10
Speaker 1: year was atrocious. I mean, awful. Here's the spot, right?
49:15
Speaker 1: James Madison goes to App State next Thursday night. Short week,
49:19
Speaker 1: road game, Sunbelt rivalry, bit of a look ahead alert, potentially.
49:25
Speaker 1: Other than the fact that Georgia State has been really,
49:28
Speaker 1: really good. My model has James Madison minus 10.6. The
49:33
Speaker 1: power rating has James Madison minus 10.9. Again, James Madison
49:37
Speaker 1: right now favored by 11 And it has come back down, right?
49:41
Speaker 1: It was 12.5 just on Monday. And, yeah, 0.5 back down,
49:48
Speaker 1: it makes sense. My total is 54.56 on this. That's
49:53
Speaker 1: five under. I was feeling pretty good when the line
49:57
Speaker 1: first came out. And then, my goodness, there's a lot
50:01
Speaker 1: of love for this over. A lot of love. Both
50:03
Speaker 1: of these teams, they start fast. First half point margin,
50:09
Speaker 1: James Madison, number 10, Georgia State, number 7. JMU takes
50:16
Speaker 1: care of the ball. They are 12th in turnover margin,
50:19
Speaker 1: number 23 in giveaways per game. Georgia State, their problem
50:22
Speaker 1: is they're number 101 in giveaways per game, and they
50:24
Speaker 1: don't generate enough takeaways. They're number 86 in the country there.
50:27
Speaker 1: Injuries favor Georgia State. JMU missing their top two pass
50:31
Speaker 1: rushers and a starting receiver. Georgia State only missing an
50:33
Speaker 1: offensive lineman and a receiver. As far as trends go,
50:37
Speaker 1: James Madison is a home favorite of 7-plus, 8-5 against
50:40
Speaker 1: the spread since 2024. I think the weather is going
50:43
Speaker 1: to matter here. You've got north winds at 20 miles
50:46
Speaker 1: an hour gusting to 31. I don't think that's going
50:51
Speaker 1: to be good for Georgia State on this. You look
50:58
Speaker 1: at the current strength of schedules, Sagarin has James Madison
51:02
Speaker 1: at 123. It's got Georgia State at 150. But you
51:06
Speaker 1: look down here, both of them have played pretty easy schedules.
51:11
Speaker 1: Number 124 opponent PPA margin for James Madison. Number 136
51:15
Speaker 1: for Georgia State. I worry about passing the ball with
51:20
Speaker 1: those wins. Because Georgia State is number 29 in passing explosiveness.
51:27
Speaker 1: James Madison is number 81. So, I would probably pay
51:32
Speaker 1: attention to this weather report as we get closer to
51:35
Speaker 1: the game. because 20-mile-an-hour winds with 30-plus gusts, that's pretty
51:41
Speaker 1: serious when you've got a Georgia State team that doesn't
51:44
Speaker 1: throw it a lot, but they are really explosive, and
51:49
Speaker 1: that's how they typically get a lot of their points, right? So, again,
52:00
Speaker 1: this thing's going up, and the wind is supposed to
52:03
Speaker 1: be crazy. I'm so curious about this total, too. I'd
52:07
Speaker 1: probably like the under in this. I'm going to pay
52:10
Speaker 1: attention to the wind, but I'm going to bet this
52:14
Speaker 1: as if it's not as crazy as what it looks
52:16
Speaker 1: right now. Which means I'm going to go Georgia State
52:21
Speaker 1: on this. I think Georgia State can hang around. I
52:24
Speaker 1: think they can keep this thing within maybe single digits.
52:29
Speaker 1: So that's the direction I'm going to go here. Give
52:30
Speaker 1: me Georgia State plus 11 to cover at James Madison.
52:37
Speaker 1: sunflower showdown, Kansas at Kansas state, 11 a.m. Central on
52:40
Speaker 1: FS one, Kansas state favored by four. That is down
52:44
Speaker 1: from six and a half on Monday, total 55 and
52:46
Speaker 1: a half on this. That's down from 56 and a half.
52:49
Speaker 1: Kansas state has won 17 straight in this series. That
52:53
Speaker 1: includes 42 to 17 last year, but Colin Klein's first
52:56
Speaker 1: year has been bumpy, right? Houston beat them by 19
53:00
Speaker 1: last week. Kansas is two and three. Uh, they lost
53:03
Speaker 1: at Utah last week by 17. Uh, Yeah, 2-2 against
53:08
Speaker 1: the spread for Kansas. 2-3 for Kansas State. Not playing
53:14
Speaker 1: up to expectation. My model has got Kansas State favored
53:17
Speaker 1: by 6.22 here. Power rating has Kansas State minus 6.4.
53:21
Speaker 1: There's two points of value on the Wildcats as far
53:23
Speaker 1: as this is concerned, but my total has it 53.1.
53:31
Speaker 1: That's under by, let's say, a field goal-ish based on
53:36
Speaker 1: what the current total is. Kansas State, third in fewest penalties.
53:41
Speaker 1: Kansas is 100th, right? You start looking at that. Number three, 3.8
53:47
Speaker 1: penalties per game. Kansas, 7.4 penalties per game. Huge difference there.
53:51
Speaker 1: Kansas State, you start diving into their offensive numbers, number
53:56
Speaker 1: 29 in PPA per drive. They are pretty good running
53:59
Speaker 1: the football. They don't run it a lot. They're number
54:01
Speaker 1: 82 in rush rate, over 47% of the time. They're
54:07
Speaker 1: number three in rushing success rate, number seven in rushing explosiveness,
54:11
Speaker 1: but this Kansas defense is actually pretty good against the run.
54:13
Speaker 1: Number 18 in rushing success allowed, number 12 in rushing
54:16
Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed. Kansas defense pretty good against the run. The
54:20
Speaker 1: Kansas offense can't throw the ball very well, but they
54:25
Speaker 1: can run it too, and this Kansas State defense is
54:27
Speaker 1: not very good when it comes to that. Kansas State,
54:32
Speaker 1: number 113 in PPA allowed per rush. Kansas is number
54:35
Speaker 1: 51 allowed. Kansas State number 90 in yards allowed per rush.
54:39
Speaker 1: Kansas number 31 there. Going to be interesting on that.
54:45
Speaker 1: The quarterback situation in Manhattan is kind of a mess.
54:47
Speaker 1: Blake Barnett is out. Dylan Duff is questionable. Kline calls
54:51
Speaker 1: him day-to-day. Kansas State, you know, we'll see what the
54:56
Speaker 1: depth ends up looking like. They've lost two offensive linemen
54:59
Speaker 1: and a tight end for the season. Kansas has their
55:02
Speaker 1: top three running backs out plus a quarterback. defensive tackle,
55:06
Speaker 1: two offensive linemen, a tight end, and a receiver. Those
55:10
Speaker 1: two offenses are held together with duct tape, right? And
55:14
Speaker 1: that would be an under, at least to me. Biggest
55:18
Speaker 1: trend on the card, Kansas State as a favorite, 7-17
55:22
Speaker 1: against the spread over 24 games. That's crazy. You've got
55:29
Speaker 1: to pick a side here, and this thing just keeps
55:32
Speaker 1: moving back towards Kansas. And I understand the numbers. I'm
55:40
Speaker 1: looking at the numbers. I see all this. I know
55:42
Speaker 1: what's going on. Kansas State does not lose to Kansas.
55:47
Speaker 1: I don't expect it to even be close anymore because
55:50
Speaker 1: I have bet on Lance Leipold going into this matchup
55:53
Speaker 1: so many times. And Kansas State continues to beat them.
56:00
Speaker 1: And some of them are not close. Like, some of
56:02
Speaker 1: them have been close, but... I'm going to take Kansas State.
56:06
Speaker 1: This thing has dropped all the way back to four.
56:09
Speaker 1: I don't care who's playing quarterback. I don't care what
56:11
Speaker 1: the rosters look like. None of it matters to me.
56:14
Speaker 1: Kansas State handles Kansas, period. So give me the Wildcats
56:19
Speaker 1: minus four at home in the Sunflower Showdown. Game number 24,
56:23
Speaker 1: Cincinnati goes to West Virginia. This is another 11 a.m.
56:26
Speaker 1: game on TNT. It's 11 a.m. Central, God's time zone.
56:32
Speaker 1: On TNT, Mountaineers favored by one here. Total of 63.5.
56:36
Speaker 1: Pretty high total. Pretty high total on this. Rich Rodriguez's team,
56:42
Speaker 1: they've lost three straight. They've given up 41 points, 45 points,
56:45
Speaker 1: and 52 points. Cincinnati, 4-1. They're coming off a bye,
56:48
Speaker 1: but the last game was ugly. Honestly, both of these
56:53
Speaker 1: teams played the same team, and both got whipped pretty good,
56:56
Speaker 1: although West Virginia was able to score on Arizona. Cincinnati
57:00
Speaker 1: lost at Arizona 34-7 two weeks ago. This is the
57:04
Speaker 1: game where my model flips the favorite. I've got Cincinnati
57:07
Speaker 1: favored by 1.95 based on the stats model. So that's,
57:12
Speaker 1: you know, three points on the Bearcats. Power rating has
57:14
Speaker 1: Cincinnati by 0.2. So basically a pick-em on this. And
57:19
Speaker 1: it's got the total of 57.6, which is under that 63.5 here.
57:25
Speaker 1: I know West Virginia's defense is 124th in success rate.
57:30
Speaker 1: Cincy's is 112th. Right? So how would this be an under?
57:35
Speaker 1: And I think it's because the market is chasing West
57:38
Speaker 1: Virginia's last three scores. The model doesn't think either offense
57:40
Speaker 1: gets 263.5. Cincinnati 12th in turnover margin, plus 7 after halftime.
57:47
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. Cincy just plays way better in the
57:52
Speaker 1: second half. They're number 108 in first half point margin.
57:55
Speaker 1: West Virginia is the opposite. Number 52 in first half
57:58
Speaker 1: point margin, plus 3.6. Second half, number 118. minus 8.2. Injuries,
58:05
Speaker 1: close to a wash. Cincy lost Ty Goodwill for the season, safety.
58:10
Speaker 1: Lost a receiver, lost a tight end, and an offensive lineman.
58:14
Speaker 1: Western Virginia is missing a corner, running back and a receiver,
58:17
Speaker 1: and a defensive lineman that's out for the season. 46 degrees,
58:21
Speaker 1: wind of 15 degrees, small chance of rain here. So it's,
58:26
Speaker 1: you're going to be running the ball. And both of
58:29
Speaker 1: these teams like to do that. Um, Cincy runs the
58:34
Speaker 1: ball almost 55% of the time. West Virginia runs the ball.
58:40
Speaker 1: There we go. Fifth most. Almost like a service academy.
58:47
Speaker 1: 71% of the time. That's wild. That is wild. My
58:56
Speaker 1: number likes Cincy. But West Virginia has lost three straight games.
59:02
Speaker 1: You start looking at strength of schedule. Sagarin's got West
59:05
Speaker 1: Virginia strength of schedule number 47. It's got Cincy number 89.
59:08
Speaker 1: You come down and look, and both teams have played
59:12
Speaker 1: pretty tough schedules. Opponent PPA margin, West Virginia 34th toughest,
59:16
Speaker 1: Cincy 44th toughest. As far as offenses go, West Virginia
59:20
Speaker 1: 35th toughest, Cincinnati 40th toughest. Both of them have faced
59:27
Speaker 1: top 60 defenses. as far as it goes, so this
59:30
Speaker 1: should be pretty even. The numbers should be just about there.
59:34
Speaker 1: The fact that West Virginia is awful against the pass,
59:38
Speaker 1: I don't think that'll come up here. Cincinnati is not
59:42
Speaker 1: good against the run, which is not good. West Virginia's
59:48
Speaker 1: at least a little bit better against the run, but man,
59:51
Speaker 1: Cincinnati number four in rushing explosiveness, West Virginia's defense number
59:55
Speaker 1: 80 on the other side. West Virginia number 89 in
59:59
Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness. But since he's defense number 113, I want
1:00:04
Speaker 1: to go with the model here. Yeah, that's what I'm
1:00:09
Speaker 1: going to do. That's what I'm going to do. Give
1:00:11
Speaker 1: me Cincinnati plus one. I think they win this game
1:00:14
Speaker 1: outright in Morgantown. I don't feel like Morgantown is quite
1:00:17
Speaker 1: as scary as it once was. And I think the
1:00:23
Speaker 1: Cincinnati team is not bad. I mean, they're not great defensively.
1:00:28
Speaker 1: But I don't think they're bad, and I think they're
1:00:30
Speaker 1: going to be able to run here, and I think
1:00:31
Speaker 1: they can run a lot. So, Cincy plus one to
1:00:35
Speaker 1: win the game outright. Final game of the show. We
1:00:39
Speaker 1: close after dark in San Diego. Fresno State at San
1:00:42
Speaker 1: Diego State. This Pac-12 after dark game, 9.30 p.m. Central
1:00:46
Speaker 1: Time on CBS Sports Network. Fresno favored by 7.5. That's
1:00:50
Speaker 1: down from 9.5. It's already come back a couple points.
1:00:53
Speaker 1: Total is 46.5 on this. It's the old... All can.
1:01:00
Speaker 1: Now in the new Pac-12. San Diego State won 23-0
1:01:03
Speaker 1: in Fresno last year. Fresno wants some revenge here. Fresno
1:01:07
Speaker 1: 4-2 after a loss to Boise last week. San Diego
1:01:10
Speaker 1: State is 2-4 and they just got embarrassed by Oregon State.
1:01:15
Speaker 1: 66-14 last week. My model has Fresno minus 9.38. That's
1:01:19
Speaker 1: the stats model. So slight lean towards Fresno on that.
1:01:24
Speaker 1: Power rating has Fresno minus 7.1. Closer to what the
1:01:30
Speaker 1: number is. You got a total of 52.4 for my
1:01:34
Speaker 1: model here. That is over by about six points here.
1:01:40
Speaker 1: San Diego State's numbers are... I mean, these things are
1:01:42
Speaker 1: pretty rough. Like, it's real rough. 136th in offensive success rate.
1:01:51
Speaker 1: 127th in defensive success rate. 35 points a game allowed.
1:01:58
Speaker 1: Let's see, right... There, that's 131st. Man. Like, 132nd in
1:02:07
Speaker 1: first half margin? That's awful. Like, Fresno is 6th in
1:02:11
Speaker 1: turnover margin, 12th in penalties. So, you look at those
1:02:15
Speaker 1: numbers right there. San Diego State's not bad in penalties
1:02:19
Speaker 1: per game, but they are number 92 in giveaways per game.
1:02:21
Speaker 1: That's not good. San Diego State's one strength here is
1:02:25
Speaker 1: they're number 4 in special teams efficiency. Both entry lists
1:02:28
Speaker 1: are Pretty rough, right? Fresno got the running back, Luke,
1:02:33
Speaker 1: that's questionable. They've got two offensive linemen and a defensive
1:02:38
Speaker 1: lineman out. They've got three front seven players questionable. San
1:02:41
Speaker 1: Diego State, their top running back, Lucky Sutton, and two
1:02:43
Speaker 1: other starters in game time decisions. Quarterback, two offensive linemen.
1:02:48
Speaker 1: There's a corner that's out. Safety out for the season, etc.
1:02:51
Speaker 1: Just something to pay attention to because we're getting to
1:02:54
Speaker 1: that point in the season. As far as trends go,
1:02:57
Speaker 1: Fresno is a favorite 12-7-1 against the spread over the
1:03:01
Speaker 1: last 20 games. The numbers all say Fresno, etc. And
1:03:05
Speaker 1: I get it. But when you look at who these
1:03:09
Speaker 1: teams have played, you look at the strength of schedule
1:03:11
Speaker 1: from Sagarin, San Diego State number 52 strength of schedule,
1:03:15
Speaker 1: Fresno number 96. If you look at PPA margin, which
1:03:20
Speaker 1: San Diego State number 132, Fresno number 53, San Diego
1:03:25
Speaker 1: State has faced the Second most difficult schedule of opponent
1:03:29
Speaker 1: PPA margin in the country. Fresno, 103rd. Numbers are the numbers.
1:03:38
Speaker 1: San Diego State has faced the fourth most difficult offenses. Fresno, 112th.
1:03:45
Speaker 1: As far as defenses, San Diego State has faced the
1:03:48
Speaker 1: number 19 best defenses in the country. Fresno, number 82.
1:03:55
Speaker 1: I think that's the reason why this number is coming
1:03:57
Speaker 1: back down. Not to mention the fact that my power
1:04:00
Speaker 1: rating has Fresno minus 7.1, so it's much closer to
1:04:04
Speaker 1: that than it was. I'm so curious. I'm so curious here.
1:04:13
Speaker 1: Because Fresno, they don't turn it over. They don't beat
1:04:20
Speaker 1: themselves with penalties. They're Not great on offense, but they
1:04:25
Speaker 1: can throw it a little bit. And the fact that
1:04:28
Speaker 1: the strength of the San Diego State defense is against
1:04:33
Speaker 1: the run, and they're not great against the run. They're
1:04:36
Speaker 1: just a little bit better at that than they are.
1:04:39
Speaker 1: But Fresno, who only throws it about 50% of the time,
1:04:43
Speaker 1: it's pretty balanced. Number 37 in passing success rate against
1:04:47
Speaker 1: number 127. They are... Number 67 in yards per pass attempt.
1:04:52
Speaker 1: Number 27 in PPA per pass. San Diego State number
1:04:55
Speaker 1: 107 and number 125 there. If this thing gets down
1:05:03
Speaker 1: below seven, which is where it's trending, I might have
1:05:10
Speaker 1: to bet Fresno here. Because while San Diego State has
1:05:14
Speaker 1: played very... You know what? I've done this before. I
1:05:19
Speaker 1: have done this before. Texas State. I bet on Texas
1:05:23
Speaker 1: State a couple weeks ago, and they turned the ball
1:05:25
Speaker 1: over a few times. San Diego State was able to
1:05:26
Speaker 1: score in a couple of different ways. Give me San
1:05:30
Speaker 1: Diego State. I'm going against the model. I'm going against
1:05:33
Speaker 1: all of it. Late night game at home. They've played
1:05:36
Speaker 1: the way tougher schedule. I'll take San Diego State plus 7.5
1:05:40
Speaker 1: against Fresno. This is the week after the Boise game.
1:05:44
Speaker 1: Let down City. You're expecting to come in, get an
1:05:46
Speaker 1: easy win, because... San Diego State hadn't been all that good.
1:05:50
Speaker 1: I still trust in Sean Lewis. So San Diego State
1:05:54
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half for me. All right, let's
1:05:57
Speaker 1: go ahead and wrap this thing up. The biggest model
1:05:59
Speaker 1: gaps this week, Mississippi State by 11. That's, you know,
1:06:02
Speaker 1: pay attention to if Camario Taylor plays and if he's healthy.
1:06:06
Speaker 1: UCLA by almost nine, but again, Nico's out. Texas Tech
1:06:09
Speaker 1: by seven and a half. Duke by seven. Utah by seven.
1:06:12
Speaker 1: Northwestern by six and a half. Numbers are kind of
1:06:14
Speaker 1: all over the place this week. Cincinnati, it flipped the model.
1:06:17
Speaker 1: Flip the favorite there. On totals, the best over I've
1:06:21
Speaker 1: got is Kentucky and Oklahoma, and then Fresno and San
1:06:23
Speaker 1: Diego State, and then I've got Arizona State and Texas Tech.
1:06:27
Speaker 1: The best unders, I'm looking at Cincy, West Virginia, Georgia
1:06:31
Speaker 1: State and James Madison in the wind, and Georgia Tech
1:06:35
Speaker 1: and Virginia Tech. Remember, watch the weather. Watch the weather,
1:06:40
Speaker 1: watch these injury reports. Very, very important. Trend to remember here,
1:06:44
Speaker 1: Kansas State as a favorite is 7-17 against the number.
1:06:52
Speaker 1: But man, they have walloped Kansas so many times. Watch
1:06:57
Speaker 1: the quarterback news all week. Washington, Mississippi State, Kansas State. Well,
1:07:01
Speaker 1: Kansas State, Averitt Johnson is going to play. They're going
1:07:03
Speaker 1: to play. But there's just no depth behind him. It
1:07:08
Speaker 1: is what it is. If you got something out of this,
1:07:10
Speaker 1: do me a favor. Hit the like button. Subscribe if
1:07:14
Speaker 1: you've not done that already. Make sure and drop your
1:07:16
Speaker 1: thoughts and your picks in the comments. Tell me where
1:07:19
Speaker 1: I'm wrong, because I am every week, at least some
1:07:22
Speaker 1: of these. So tell me what you think about it.
1:07:25
Speaker 1: And every individual game is going up on WCE Picks,
1:07:27
Speaker 1: which you see right down here below you. So subscribe
1:07:31
Speaker 1: over there as well. If you want everything, all the
1:07:35
Speaker 1: bonus posts, every official play that I make, all of
1:07:40
Speaker 1: these stat sheets that you just saw, I post them
1:07:44
Speaker 1: for every FBS versus FBS matchup over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.
1:07:51
Speaker 1: Don't be a supporter, which I do appreciate those as well, right? Supporters,
1:07:57
Speaker 1: still five bucks. But if you're a member, that's five
1:08:01
Speaker 1: bucks a month or 50 bucks for the year. That's
1:08:03
Speaker 1: how you get all the bonus posts. So make sure
1:08:05
Speaker 1: that you're signed up as a member. Hit the join button.
1:08:11
Speaker 1: Don't hit the support button. I've got to explain that
1:08:14
Speaker 1: a billion times. Hopefully you guys get it. Let's get
1:08:18
Speaker 1: out of here. I think I've taken enough of your time,
1:08:21
Speaker 1: but I appreciate you coming back every single week, and
1:08:22
Speaker 1: we're going to keep doing this until the end of
1:08:24
Speaker 1: the season. And then I'm still going to talk college football.
1:08:29
Speaker 1: I think I've got a good routine going here. So
1:08:32
Speaker 1: don't forget about Third Dog Thursday as well. That's on Thursday,
1:08:36
Speaker 1: 9 a.m. Central Time, right here on the channel. So
1:08:39
Speaker 1: make sure you check out TJ and Jason. They have
1:08:40
Speaker 1: been on a roll lately. With that said, until next time,
1:08:45
Speaker 1: take care of yourself, take care of each other, God
1:08:47
Speaker 1: bless college football, hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
1:08:52
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
1:08:55
Speaker 1: review or comment, follow at GaryWCE on X, and check
1:09:00
Speaker 1: out the web store.