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AFC South Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Michael andare
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Mike BFF professional?
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Better? Sign in Hunter Ello?
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: So I'm in Chad. How are we doing? Brother dude?
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: We made it Every year.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We hope and pray training camps would come a little
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: bit sooner, but they always seem to come at the
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: exact same time, which means it's time for us to
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: kick off our annual division by division NFL preview episodes,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: going through each of the eight divisions across the AFC
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: and the NFC as our March to Week one officially
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: begins today. We start with the always electrifying division that
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I am quick to show deference to, one that I
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: have nothing but respect for, one that shows.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Us year after year after year. Why it is not.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: A joke division at all, A division that has been
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: loved and admired by us on this show for going
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: on a decade.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: The AFC South.
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a it's a gross division, but it's a
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: division that you can find a lot of value in.
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: We've had some really fun years been there, right, The
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence year that he came back eight to one,
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: ten to one. Some people got it to win this
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: division on the last game of the year against Tennessee.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Pretty exciting.
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: In the following year, Brandon Anderson had him on the show,
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: talked about Houston Texans. I think they were eleven to one,
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: sure enough won the division.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: So it's it's just a crazy division.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: You can go from worse to first in this division
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: if you get the right quarterback with the defensive combination.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: Just because we talk about the time, it's it's a
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: bad division chat.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: So if you just have one really good part of
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: your team, you can usually dominate this division in that sense.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Well, look, that's that's sort of the theme for this division.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: And we've talked about it a few times on the
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: show already during the offseason, and so let's get into it.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: The Houston Texans.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: Sol rolls enough that both a vade in love and
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: that's old Vans.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: If you're go and play in Texas, you gotta have the.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: The Houston Texans. They're the division winners the past two seasons.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: CJ.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Stroud had a brilliant rookie season. He took a huge
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: step back last season. Arguably a lot of different reasons
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: for that. They're Division odds plus one ten. There are
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: conference odds sixteen to one, longer, by the way, than
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, whom they crushed in the playoffs. They're Super
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Bowl odds to one. Their win total nine and a half. Dude,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I want to love the Texans, I really do. I
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: want to believe in CJ.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Stroud.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I want to believe in the back to back playoffs.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I want to believe in destroying the Chargers, keeping it
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: close with the Chiefs in the postseason. I want to
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: believe because their defense is so good at every level.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: You know, Daniel Hunter signed a new extension for big
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: money that got Will Anderson. Derek Stingley signed a deal
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: three years eighty nine guaranteed. I want to love this
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: team so much, but they have done nothing to help
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse. No more
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Laramy Tunsel greater as one of the best tackles in
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: the NFL. The big issue last year was the offensive line.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I've got the stats to back it up on how
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: it impacted CJ. Stroud and the most important elements of
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: his game. Simon. Before I dig into the data here,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: give me your take on the Texans. Am I blowing
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: all of this out of proportion because at the end
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: of the day, it's the best quarterback in the division?
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Take the best quarterback.
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting talking to scouts on the team where
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: their view of it was, it's a big deal to
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: lose obviously lose an offensive lineman, but to them, they
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: were so bad they needed to make major change. And
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: that's across the board in Tunsil. You can talk about
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: him as a great player. He is, he's older Chad,
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: He's not what we still think of in previous years.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: Right, last year, you can't put.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: The blame on him because, like you just said, the
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: whole offensive line was bad, But he wasn't that great either,
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: Like he wasn't really dominant in as one on ones
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: So I'm with you.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: I didn't really get them move, But the more I've
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: talked to guys on the team and kind of got
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: their perspective on it, I understand why they made the move. Now,
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: talking about the quarterbacks, we talked, I mean, this is
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: year three for CJ and this division three years ago was.
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: All about the quarterbacks. Right, we had CJ go to Houston.
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: We had the Colts take Anthony Richardson, and then you
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: had Tennessee take Will Levis. Now here we are three
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: years later. Will Levis is gone. I mean, he's basically
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: his career is over. In Tennessee. Thet they took Gay
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: Ward the first pick, and andthey richards is a total unknown.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: CJ has been the playoffs every season and has won
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: a playoff game every season. So I think it's tough
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: where we had expectations for people. But to me, he's
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: coming to the league and he's done everything I expected
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: him to do, Like he shows up in the playoffs.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: And again we talked that game against the Chiefs. I
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: know everyone played the Chiefs tight and tough last year,
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: but they were in it.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: They were in in that fourth quarter. So this is
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: a team we talk. We know they have a load
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: of talent.
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: But like your questions right now, I think is what
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: the majority of the public is feeling. That is why
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: this is a minus one fifty minus one sixty, right
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: And there's a reason this is plus one ten because
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: we have so many questions about this new rebuilt offensive
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: line and what is up with CJ. Was that just
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: because of the regression of last year. We expected and
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: defensive coordinators better against him and him struggling because of
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: that and the adjustments they made. Maybe, but a little
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: bit like me, and you watch a lot of their games,
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: he just looked different. He didn't have the same confidence
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: and putting the ball downfield, it was a little different.
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: So I get to hesitation from people. But to me,
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: nine and a half, if I'm gonna bet it, I
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: have it right at ten, I'll take the over. But
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: it's so small. Am I really gonna put a lot
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: of money to it?
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: It's a very small margin here because to me, ten
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: to eleven wins is true for them, that's a real possibility.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: But the reason it is.
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: Nine and a half so low is because of the
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: unknown of Tennessee, of Jacksonville, of the colts. Like this,
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: we all expect this division to be much better than
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: they were last year. Right last year, Houston just had
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: their way in this division. So that's why, like a
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: lot of people have asked about this nine and a half,
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: they're like, is it trappy?
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: It's not that trappy in the sense that the books
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: have late this number.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: Because of that, right, they have the same type of
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: model if their model it has this at ten, why
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: not throw it at nine and a half and juice
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: it to the over right, that's where most of the
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: public money should coming in. So makes sense that it's
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: nine and a half. I'm shocked they're thirty to one
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: Super Bowl odds, like I wouldn't probably put it below
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: thirty five. So to me, there's no value for looking
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: at their Super BWL odds. But if you want to
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: make a play on the division a plus one ten chat,
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: I can't fault you for it. I've thrown a little
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: bet on it in parlays with them in a couple
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: other teams. But straight up wise, this is not the
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: team I'm better for this division at all.
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: Me neither brother.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I am not a buyer on the Texans in any respect.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: The nine and a half is just not that interesting.
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not appealing.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: It's not that interesting to me. Let's not discount the
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: fact that they really didn't do anything to upgrade their
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: receiver room. Nicocollins is really their only primary target. They
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: haven't really upgraded their running back situation. Joe Mixon has
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: an injury that has not fully been disclosed that they
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: say happened away from the facility that's going to keep
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: him out through a lot of training camp. They have
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, but Nick Chubb is old and injury prone
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: for a running back, so.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: I do I'll just say that the wide receiver Chad
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: they did add I know it's not a big name
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: to you.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: Christian Kirk.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: I know they had a Christian on him and Jayden Higgins,
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: a rookie has as a really high upside. So they
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: did address a little bit the wide receiver. I'm not
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: trying to say you're totally off basis, but like they
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: did add some pieces to the wide receiver room.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: You asked what happened to c J Stroud last year?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you what happened to c J
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Stroud last year because I've been digging into the data.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: One of the.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Biggest reasons for his progression in twenty twenty three, c J.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game. Right
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: per the advanced stats such as EP on deep throws
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: or his PFF ranking for deep throws, he was so
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: good he had one of the five best seasons over
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the previous five seasons of anybody in the NFL throwing
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the deep ball.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: In twenty twenty.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Four, he was so bad on deep balls he fell
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: to twenty ninth in EPA. Again, EPA's expected points at
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: it twenty ninth on.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Deep balls in EPA. In the NFL, what happened? You
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: might ask, why did CJ. Stroud regress so much?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: And we try to figure it out all year last year,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: like where the defense is doing something differently? Was it
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: the injuries to Nico Collins? Was it, you know, different
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: kind of sort of thinking from CJ. The biggest issue
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: goes back to what we talked about in the beginning,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the offensive line, the disruption pressure rate that he faced.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: What that really means is like he was disrupted from
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: going through even his initial progression increased from five percent
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three to twenty five percent in twenty
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: twenty four. That was the highest in the league. So
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: this guy couldn't even get through his initial reads on
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: any play and it took away what was his greatest
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: weapon as a rookie. And remember Blake, think back, We
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: all remember how great he was throwing deep balls. And
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: if even think about that playoff game against the Chargers,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: he was throwing bombs in that game multiple explosive pass plays.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Those are what won them in that game. In addition
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: to Justin Herbert throwing the four picks was his ability
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: to generate explosive plays downfield with the pass. If he
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: can't do that this year with a new coordinator, that
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: to me poses a real problem for the Texans and Cjstraft.
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and we would both agree that they still obviously
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: have the best defensive unit in this division.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: Yes, still have the best quarterback in this division by
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: a long shot.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: And you know, if you're someone out there that likes
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: doing these divisional parlays, a guy like doing, I have
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: no issue with you betting there right now throwing them
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: into a parlay. But like we're about to dive in here,
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: there's other other teams of the division that just have
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: better odds, better value where I'm not saying it was
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: fluky that you're one with CJ. But you talked about
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: a little bit with the numbers where we knew he
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: was due for a regression on the deep ball. That
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: that's insane though him being twenty ninth, I didn't know
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: it was that bad. That that nice median if he
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: finds if he can be back in the top fifteen.
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: That's going to pretty much lock them up to doing
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: this division right like that would be such a huge
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: bump in their offensive output.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: So I'm with you again. Another thing that's not being
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: talked down enough about enough Joe Mixon being hurt. I
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: know he's not Joe Mixon.
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: A Bowl, but that's still a big deal to that
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: offense where you know, he wished for one thousand yards.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: He was pretty important to that offense last season.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: So yeah, it's gonna be something to follow along the
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: next month see what he is in the update on
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: his injuries, because he he is in line right now
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: to miss the first couple weeks. That's why they're talking
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: in camp. So pretty interesting injury to follow with that team.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Real stabilizing force on the team, real veteran presence, did
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: so much to put that team in contention when things
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: were not going well for the offense and for the
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: passing game.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: All right, So it feels.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Like we're in somewhat alignment on the Texans and their
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: failings but also their strengths. It really could come down
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to their defense. If CJ improves on the deep ball
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit, we like them a little bit more.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: But right now, we don't find any value in their
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: numbers unless we're doing their plus one, ten and some
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: parlays to win the division? All right, Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: It's the chant heard all throughout everybody, call for pride
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: and Jacksonville's team.
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: Let everyone know where they are from.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars plus three hundred to win the division, thirty
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: five to one to win the conference, eighty to one
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl win total seven and a half. Simon,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: can you tell me what this date means for the
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars?
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: You ready? December fourth, twenty twenty three?
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: Was that the last time there above five hundred?
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: No?
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: December fourth, twenty twenty three was a Monday night game
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: against the Bengals. At that point in the season, the
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Jags were eight and three in twenty twenty three. They
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: were leading the division, still building off of a monster
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: comeback playoff win in twenty twenty two against the Chargers
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: qbs in the NFL. It made it look like the
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence connection was going to catapult them
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: into the next realm of AFC greatness. Midway through the
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter of that game, it was tied twenty eight
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: twenty eight, Trevor Lawrence was stepped on by his own lineman,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Walker Little, severely injured his right ankle. Did not return
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: to the game. The Jags lost in overtime thirty four
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: thirty one. They dropped to eight and four in the season.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: They'd go on to lose four of their final five games.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Finished the season nine and eight, missed the playoffs. Wheels
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: fell off. They never put him back on the next year,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: even when he was healthy. Trevor Lawrence starts zero to four,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: they never get into a groove, he hurts his shoulder,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: He's done for the year. So who is this team
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: going to be like? Is Trevor Lawrence the guy who
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: took them on that miraculous comeback in the playoffs and
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: then started the next year eight and three and then
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: had that debilitating ankle injury and the team kind of
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: never recovered over the next season and a half. New
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: coach Wiam Cohne Brian Thomas Junior was brilliant. Travis Hunter.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: They've improved what they've done on offense. Question marks at
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: running back bottom ten offensive line six, easiest schedule according
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to one win loss projections. So I'm a buyer on
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: the Jags.
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: I can't follow you.
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: I know a lot of pros like again, this is
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: this division. There's pros.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: I like a lot of these teams for different reasons.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: A lot of pros I've talked to who like these
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: guys in May, then in June. Now they're you'd like
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: to do more here in July.
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: The hype keeps building is because it's the classic new
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: head coach. Like the new head coach, you bring him
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: in with the new offensive scheme. You're bringing Travis Hunter,
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: you I mean people want him to play both sides.
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: The wide receiver positions, I think is gonna be the
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: first thing they're trying to work into him, right. They
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: want him to be a weapon on offense first, just
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: because we know that that matters more. The likelihood of
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: him being a number one shutdown corner is much smaller
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: than it is being a stud roar receiver. It's just
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: a much easier position to play rather than defensively. But
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: the thing that really stands up to me is the
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: fact that you know they got Walker, they got josh
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: Heinz Allen these two incredible d linemen that I mean,
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: you know, as much as we like to shoot on
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: the Walker draft pick, he's just been getting ten sacks
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: every year like he's this is this. I think last
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: year is the third season another ten and a half sacks.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: Like they they have the defensive front in my opinion,
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: But man, are they bad across the board defensively, Like
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: there is a lot of ways to attack that team defensively.
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: And did they go out and address that stuff?
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know, Like the Travis Hunter stuff, him being
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: their number one corner, Yes, that'd be amazing an ideal world.
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: It's not looking that way, Like you just watch his footwork.
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: I just you know, I can't imagine him trying to
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: go up against team's number ones, like him going against
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: Nico Collins, he would have a horrible day. Again, it's
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: Nico Collins that, like Nego Collins, is so professional running routes.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: He would put Travis Hunter's head on a swivel. So, uh,
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: my mind when I look at this team is high
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: high upside?
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: Do you love the.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: Number chicks plus three hundred enough value free? If it is,
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: then it's good value, Like that's that's the question. Here
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: is the number good enough seven and a half wins. Yeah,
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: if Trevor Lawrence can be that guy you just talked
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: about that eight and three quarterback that was ascending at
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: that point.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: Yes, this this team should easily reach this number in
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: this division.
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: They have such a high level offense that with you know,
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: even if we don't know who their number one running
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: back is right now, like are even looking at their
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: depth chart. Tank Biggsley took a step back, Travis etn
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: took a step back.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: We don't know which one of.
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: Those guys will be the guy or could be the
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: rookie they drafted. Like it's that's a big question right now.
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: But you're you, you kind of brought up with them.
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: We talk all the time the offensive lines, but then
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: we really do care about that. To me is gonna
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: be interesting part about you know, you're bringing a new
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: head of coach or bringing a new offensive style. Can
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: he rupped the offense around Trevor Lawrence in that offensive line?
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: Can he make it work a quick pass offense? Because
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: we know on the outside, if you have Hunter and
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: Brian Thoms Brian Thumps junior, that's an insanely deadly combo
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: wide receivers, like, no excuse for Trevor Lawrence. We have
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: those two guys in the outside, but can you survive
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: that offensive line chat.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: So that's why I'm a little hesitant with this team.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: I didn't make a small bet on them their win
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: total because it did open at seven and a half.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: I bet it.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: The juice has been going up towards the over because
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: to me, they're all upside team when you bring in
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: a new head coach, you have Trevor Lawrence coming off
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: an injury, and they're kind of left for dead in
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: the public opinions. Eye, I do like them, but I
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: also can see this team easily crash and burning just
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: because of all that. Like you just talked about, he
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: does not stay healthy. That's the biggest issue. A Trevor
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: lawnces just stay healthy, and he's inconsistent. So to me,
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: so many questions about this team. I've bet bet them divisionally.
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: I've not bet them super bowldsive though it is tempting
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: eighty to one. It's just I can't get there.
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: But the win toll seven and a half in this
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: division with all the offensive five power they have, if
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: they can just put it together offensively, I do like
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: that number, chat, So I get why you have love
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: for them coming into this year.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Why wouldn't you bet the division?
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Like plus three hundred It feels like crazy good value
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: for this team right now that it eighteen months ago
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: was the division winner. Don't forget like even though CJ.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Stroud went to the playoffs his rookie year, that was
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: the last game of the year and they only got
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: in because Trevor Lawrence got hurt and the Jags collapse,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: like they're removed and they've got new coaching and a
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: new administration, but a lot of the talent is still there.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: It just feels like they've been completely forgotten about. Plus
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: three hundred feels just feels too long to me.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: I'm playing, you know, I mean, I'm always playing the angle.
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: So basically, they start the season with the Panthers, So yeah,
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: we've loved the Panthers. We'll dive into them our next show.
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: But they go sincey Houston forty nine ers Chiefs Seattle
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: than the Rams and their bye week. So to me,
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: if I think if I could be patient here and
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: they can go you know, three and four, I might
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: be able to get a better number at their bye
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: week point, because then they come out of their bye week,
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: they come out and they play Vegas, Houston Chargers, Ariazonak.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: They have a really tough start.
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: To the season with that sincey Houston, forty nine Ers,
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: Kansas City run.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: Like, to me, that's just a brutal stretch.
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna be patient here, and I think
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: you'll get a better number if you wait in season,
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: just because I just don't see a scenario where they're
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: going to Cincinnati winning, coming home beating Houston, then going
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: at the forty nine Ers winning, and then coming home
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: beating the Chiefs like that, Just to me, for this
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: new coaching staff, that's a really really rough start.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Chat.
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: I know you probably didn't dive into that as much.
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: You agree that's that's a little little daunting to start
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: the year that way.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: I did.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: I dove into it for the first two games. I
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: honestly didn't dive beyond that. And I saw the Panthers
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the schedule and I'm like, oh, well, that's an automatic l.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: For the Jacks.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: There you go, and we'll talk about the Panthers in
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the NFC South in the next show. Like you just said,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: a little hint, I know, we have asked people to
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: tail us on the Panthers for many, many years, and Simon,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: you know, as you and I have discussed for the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: book I'm working on, I have done a very deep
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: dive into my betting history over the past seven seasons,
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: all of which is tracked in the Action Network app.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: And the fun part of that is I was able
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: to download every single bet and track it to the
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: most minute level of detail, and my record betting bad teams,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: the teams that we have lost the most, that we
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: are always so ready to bet Jags and Panthers like,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: it is amazing how frequently we lose those games when
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: we are so sure that is the exact right side.
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: My favorite thing is you said, we've been betting the
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: Panthers for years. It was just one year. That's how
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: that's so many years. It felt like it took off
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: your life. It was just one year, but it felt
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: like years to you because.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: And by the way, it took years off her life.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: And by the second half of the season, oh, they
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: were phenomenal.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was the best. And we're talking about.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: That when I was doing the research for Thursday's show.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Just that first ten weeks, Man, that was tough.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Over the weekend.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: I did the research for Thursday show and I saw
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the Panthers and I'm like, oh my god, they were
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: fucking brilliant. And so we'll talk about that on Thursday.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: But your point is well taken. Maybe it's just a
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: better time to buy the Jags.
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: It made impatient because that is I got you right
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: away when I saw that plus around it, and I
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: was like, yeah, I was tempted, and I was like,
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: there's well, are they giving.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: Me that number?
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: Let me let me look into their schedule a little bit,
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: see if there's a better opportunity coming up in the air.
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: And that Bie a week jumped out to me that
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: that could be good value that bye week if you
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: want to take a position on them.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: All right, So I think it's fair to say, Simon,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the Jags and the Texans are where the AFC South
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: projections fairly land. The Colts are such a disappointing franchise.
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: A year ago, Indianapolis fell short of the Super Bowl
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: on their quest to the NFL Mountain Town. That's where
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: we're going, and we're just getting started.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: The Colts, they had the opportunity with Shane Steichen to
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: take it to the next level because I think we
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: were both really impressed with how he coached that team
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: two seasons ago and with myriad injuries, Anthony Richardson, Gardner
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Minshew filling in. They are plus three sixty to win
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: the division, they are fifty to one to win the
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: They'll win total to.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Me at seven and a half feels like what they've been.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: It's a representation of them being stuck in mediocrity. Obviously,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: the biggest play, and we'll dig into this, is Daniel
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Jones is now going to be the quarterback. Anthony Richardson
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: has been a struggling with play and accuracy, but be
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: still less lingering injury issues. Like I feel like I
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: don't have a ton of strong opinions on this team.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: They're a middle of the back team being greater as
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: a milk toast investment, Like what do I do here?
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: It's a tough team to read.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: It's is it fully closed the window? I mean that
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: they had this incredible run where they had Andrew Luck
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: and they didn't have the offensive line, and as soon
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: as he retired, they finally had the offensive line and
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: they had the defense. They kept bringing to these veteran
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: quarterbacks and you know, people remember I liked Anthony richardson
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: the he's just he's failed in many ways, but they
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: failed him as an organization. And like you just said, now
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: they've brought in Daniel Jones and you know, the books
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: once again another line that people think they don't know
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: what they're doing with them. They're just throwing out seven
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: and a half. I have this number at seven. So
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: to me, the books priced are right. We're seven and
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: a half. That feels right because the season go two ways.
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: Like they have some talent on the team. They have it,
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: like you just said, I think we both agree they
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: have the coaching. Can they have the quarterback to play consistent?
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: They have They have not had a consistent quarterback since
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: Philip Rivers, So it's been.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: It's been I didn't even count.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: He was he was solid for them.
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I just it's just it's just tough to
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: watch where you know, you see these pieces, I mean,
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: like the tight end they just went and got this year.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: You know it was flip flopped. You know, you can
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: either take warn or you know, the guy you guys
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: got on the Bears. It's it was one or two
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: was they're gonna be the top tight end. These guys
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: are appearing like black Bowers, their apps, specimen freaks.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: Do you want to get them touches? Okay?
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: Do you trust Anthony Richardson to be consistent throwing me
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: to a tight end? I mean his weaknesses are those
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: five to ten yard passes. Yeah, And you know we
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: talked a couple of months ago and we joked about it,
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: but it's like the fact that he was missing offseason
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: programs because he's has stalled a shoulder injury.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: It's just all bad for this Colts team. So if
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: you are out there betting this and betting the total,
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: you're holding on to hope of he takes that next
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: step or Daniel Jones can come in and you know,
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: we've seen him lead a team to plays.
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: We've seen him win a playoff game against Kirk Cousins,
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: that Vikings team like it's it's there for Daniel Jones.
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: We know he just needs the coach in the right
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: offensive line and the right scheme. Could this be it, like,
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: could that be the kind of thing where he just
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: beats out Richardson Because you know it's it is a
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: big deal with the owner, you know, Jimmer says passed away,
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: like the daughters have taken over. I see them doing
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: it a little differently, and they're not to me as
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: committed to Anthony Rision as maybe their dad was. So
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: if he comes in, he's just not putting it together.
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: I could see them going Daniel Jones, which my opinion
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: would be better for them for this year, but not
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: long term. So it's it's a tough team chat. I
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: honestly haven't placed a single bet on this team in
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: any way. I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm just
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: waiting to see who the quarterback is because if it
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: is Daniel Jones, I'll throw a little on the over.
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: Fitz Richardson, I'll take the under, just because he has
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: been so inconsistent.
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: What what have you seen that makes you say the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: daughters would run it differently and wouldn't be committed.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: Damn the way I've just seen them talking about, like
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: talking how they go to practice. They're always meeting with
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: the gms, and their whole view is they're involved, but
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: they don't want they want to stay out and let
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: people do their jobs. Where Jim Mercy was notorious for
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: making the main decisions, right.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: He was the reason the quarterbacks came in. He was
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: the reason Philip Rivers came and he was a reason
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: Calshner Wentz came in. I mean Matt Ryan came in.
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: He's always been the reason these different things have happened,
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: where apparently the Daughters are letting the front office now
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: and make the moves, which again, that to me is
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: a that's what you want, you want. You don't want
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: an ownership like Jerry Jones and these other owners that
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: are heavily involved in their teams. Just because you know
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: the oil business doesn't mean you know the football business.
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: And that's always been my biggest issue with these owners,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: where they're doing stuff off ego and feel where yeah,
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: Jim Mercy was a great owner, he lucked into Peyton
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: Manning and Andrew Luck. Like, that's how it can be
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: in this league, right, you don't need to be a
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: genius to do those type of things. So I'm excited
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: to see the future of this Colts organization just because
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: of that. I really like like everything I've read about
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: the Daughters, it just seems like they're thinking in a
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: new light, and they're also kind of the new generation
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: of trust in the numbers more so than feel. So, yeah,
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be interesting future with them, but we just
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: we just nail on the head it's Anthony Richardson or
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: Daniel Jones.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: We'll know more later in the season.
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: Right now, as we sit here right now, they're both
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: splitting reps, so no one really knows who the who
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: the main quarterback is going to be there.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Listen before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Robert Craft and
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Jim mersay, we're just.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: Dudes who had family or.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Wife wealth, who bought a team and we're trying to
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: figure out what to do with it, and we're completely
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: unexceptional until they landed on quarterbacks who made them look
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: like geniuses so they could act like these brilliant, thoughtful,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: caring player first owners that everybody wanted to love. Right,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks solve everything, which leads us to can Daniel Jones
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: be this year's Sam Darnold right? And can Shane Steiken
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: do what Kevin O'Connell did at least make him a
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: little more comfortable, put him in better positions than he's
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: been in whatever day Ball did that first year with
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, can Shane Steiken replicate some of that magic.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but the.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Uncertainty and the fact we've seen so much evidence of
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks taken high in the first round getting opportunities revitalizing
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: their career at least for a season, makes me want
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: to pass completely on this team.
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I would be.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: I would be more interested in them if I knew
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: exactly the quarterback was. But at this point, like we
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: just said, it's just like plus seven twenty for the
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: divisional odds. Yes, me and Chad love those type of bets,
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: but we can't just bet on the unknown right now
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: in my.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Opinion, speaking of plus seven twenty, the Tennessee Titans plus
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: seven twenty one hundred to one to win the conference,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: two hundred and one to win the Super Bowl win
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: total five and a half.
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah. How you doing, man? Mike Begnes with Tennessee Titans. Okay, sir,
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: how are you doing? I'm doing great, man.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: So we're going to turn this pick in here making
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the number one pick.
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: How does that sound good?
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Last season epically historically record setting back against the spread
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: run two and fifteen, the worst by any team in
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl era. When the season offseason began and
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: they had cam Ward and you know I liked it.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: They signed Kevin Seitzer from the Lions to help improve
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: their offensive line.
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, sign what's that big signing for them, big signing.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: And like we both love Bill Callahan as an offensive
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: line coach and Brian Callahan obviously the jury is out.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: We've been tempted here a little bit.
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I love this team and like Chad knows, I've
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: been talking about them for a couple of months now.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: Was giving them out a plus eight hundred, plus nine hundred,
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: a couple of books for this division, and you know,
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: love the win total obviously over five and a half.
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: Like a couple of books open them at four and
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: a half, which to me was insane, but I think
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: that was because they hadn't drafted Cam Mooard. Yeah, and
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: we saw after they drafted them, Detumber has shifted up the.
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: Five to five and a half almost all the books.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: So love the win. Told them.
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: My whole view of this team is they were so
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: bad at the quarterback position. It was just such a negative.
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: We've never seen anything like it like it was. That
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: was like one of the things that pained me last
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: year was a really big blind spot too, the amount
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: of fans of our show begging us to fade the
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: Tennessee Titans every week, and me and Chad are just
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: too smart. We are too smart, and we just we
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: did avoid them. We need not bet on Tennessee, thank god,
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: but we should have just been fading Will Levis and
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: that train wreck of a team, I mean, the worst
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: special teams in football too.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: So again easy things.
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: To correct though, right because it's the quarterback and special
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: teams to me was the glaring weaknesses. It wasn't their defense.
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: I mean, yes, their offense wasn't good, but it was
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: because once again, the quarterback position was nothing to me.
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: With Calvin Ridley with cam Ward that could be a
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: real connection passing game wise, and like people think that's
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: not that big of a deal, it is when you
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: know Calvin Ridley has the talent, right he missed a
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: year because of gambling, when he's worked his way back
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: these last couple of years, and everything I've read and
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: seen in camp, there is a spark there, like there
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: is he realizes there's potential in this.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: Quarterback, unlike there was a Will Levis.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: And you know they've talked about bringing in guys for
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: the special teams to change what they had last year,
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: and it's it's a big deal when you know you're
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: the worst team in football and special teams, that's an
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: easy correct bringing in different players, different coaching staff to
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: correct that weakness. And we talk it's it's the quarterback,
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: like it's in this division. If you hit right on
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: the quarterback, it can flip it. Because you're going from
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: the last play schedule in a weeks in a week
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: division that's a huge upper hand.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: So this is another team that you know.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: Will dive into Week one obviously, but they're at Denver
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: Week one, cam Ward. That is a horrible, horrible spot
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: for a rookie. Denver already is notorious. I can't wait
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: for having to drop the stat Denver at home in September.
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: You don't want to go up to Mile High and
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: play those early seasons. It's hot, the air, everything, it's thin.
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: Guys just do not do well in the first couple
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: of weeks up there, and you're putting a rooky on
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: the road there.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: So if you want you've already missed a plus eight hundred.
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: If you don't want to take the plus seven hundred
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty that's out there. You can just wait,
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: assume they go own one and then take that position
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: again before they're at home against the Rams, which a
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: lot of people think that's a bad spot for them.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: At home against the Rams, Rams and Notorious are starting slow.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's as bad as the spot as
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: people think, especially the fact that their first game the
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: Rams against Seattle divisional game and then all on the
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: road's that's a tough spot for the Rams. So just
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: if you want to be patient, you can. But to me,
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: I'm grabbing the win total now because I think it's
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: still good. It's such great value taking the division odds.
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: I just I love everything about this team and everything
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: I've seen about cam Ward. I love and again me
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: and you talk about these teams, Chad, that no one's
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: talking about, no one's talk about the number one pick
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: cam Ward.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: That's a good spot you want to be in when
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: you're back in the team. You want to be what.
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: Jane Daniels was last year, right, No one talking about
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: Jane and Daniels at this point. Everyone's talking about, you know,
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: not to bust Jad's balls, but Caleb Williams and the
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: upside of that Bears team. They're running up their win
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: total up to nine and a half. You want this,
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: You want low expectations on a team that was last
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: in the division. So yeah, love the win total for
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: this Tennessee team.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: You've said the magic word here, which is you kind
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: of have to believe that the Commanders have the Titans
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: have some kind of Commander's magic, that Jaden Daniels is
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: the football equivalent or that cam Ward is the football
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: equivalent of Jaden Daniels, and that in the same way,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: the Commander's defense. You know, Brandon Anderson talked about this
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: when we were talking about playoff scenarios. It's easier for
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: a defense to incrementally improve and it has a bigger
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: impact on the team than the other side of the ball, right,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: And so you have to believe that the Titans can
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: incrementally improve on defense, and that cam Ward can be
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: as good as or just underneath what Jayden Daniels was,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: and that that offensive line, you that's an inside baseball thing, right,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: leaving in Bill Callahan his ability to coach up an
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: offensive line if they get a little more talented. You
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: got to believe a lot. So I feel like your
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: entire bet is based on speculation and trying to find
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: an opportunity and a window more than it is anything
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: that any of us are going to find in the
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: data and the stats on the field any of that,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: because we just don't know. It's purely finding a fact
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: pattern and applying some historical institutional knowledge to it.
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: Mathematically, though, it's as a better it's very simphen you
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: break down and go through the numbers, it's literally almost
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: mathematically impossible to do what they did last year. So like,
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: just going off of that, you're like, there's it's only up,
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: Like we just two and fifteen against the spread.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: Waen never we say like it.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: It was the craziest thing, ever, how bad they were
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: against the spread and how every game just Will Levis
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: somehow had the stupidest turnover we ever sing. We should
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: have known though that Week one against the Bears was
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: just the start of it all, and we should have
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: known right then and there this is this is a
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: train wreck of a team because they do not have
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: a quarterback. So yeah, really high expectations for cam Ward.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: Every every step he's tacking since high school through college
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: to right now, he's improved every level. Every time he's
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: moved up to a new team, to a.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: New level, he's always improved.
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm just I'm really excited for this guy.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: Just I'm I don't even want to say I have
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: him the same level as I do was Caleb Williams
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: and Jane Daniels.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: But I literally have him right there.
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: Like if it was if he came out last year,
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: I would have taken Jane Daniels. I had him ranked higher,
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: but honestly, obviously didn't know Jane Daniels was gonna turn
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: into what he did. But at the time I had
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: them really close, like one A, one B. So yeah,
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: just a lot of the hearsay people saying he would
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: have been behind Michael Pennix, I think that's a ridiculous kinds.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: I think he would have gone before him last year
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: in the draft. I just I really loved the upside
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: of this kid came ward.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: What do you like about him?
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: Other than his footwork, He's just so cool, Like he
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: reminds me of Lamar where there's got there's bodies flying
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: around him, and he's just so composed in the pocket,
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: so cool, calm, relaxed, even after big moments, big hits,
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: He's always able to stay the level and I really
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: look for guys like that.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: The moments are never too big for them.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: And I saw a time and time again in college
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: where you know, he would have this incredible ten twelve
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: play drive and again, Miami's one of the worst defense
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: they've ever seen. They would give up a seventy yard
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: touchdown next play and he would just put his time,
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: went back on back to work Draves team right down
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: the field do it again. He was just robotic in
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: that way, just such a command of the offense. And
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: even when I've watched the little stuff I've watched with
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: him at tennessee his just his poise and his movement.
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: Like I said, you can tell he's been working on
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: his feet even during the offseason. So yeah, I'm just
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: really really excited to see what he's gonna be like
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: as a pro.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: He is a no drama draft pick, no, yeah, niche man.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: We have not heard anything about him in the way
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: we heard about Caleb Williams last year, in the way
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: we heard about Shador Sanders this year, in the way
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: that we would hear about other number one overall picks.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Very little attention being paid to cam Ward and very
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: little expectations, which also could play to the strength of
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: what you're talking about. What is looking at all four
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: of these teams your favorite division bet.
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: I mean it's it's gonna be Titans over wins in
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: their division.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Odds, Titans over five and a half and Titans plus
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: seven to twenty.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just they really there's always mean to you. I talked
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: about there's teams.
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: I have a couple of fourth play teams from last
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: year I like this year, but there's always one team,
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: just like we talked about with Washington and the Vikings,
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: And there's always random teams like last year that just
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: pop out of nowhere. And this this Tennessee really seems
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: like that team to me. So the fact that their
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: win total is so low based on public opinion, I
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: love that value.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: It is massively under expectations. Uh.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: I feel the same way about the Jags at plus
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: three hundred and over seven and a half.
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: I told people I'm gonna be patient on the Jags
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: and I bet their win total and the bet their
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: divisional odds after their bye week, just because it's it's
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: the start from hell for them. I just can't believe
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: the schedule makers gave them such an insane start to
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: the season.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: But it's it's.
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: Awesome because again you have a new coaching staff. It's
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: feet to the fire. You're gonna you're gonna learn quick.
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: Either you're gonna have a huge advantage on teams because
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: they're not gonna be prepared for the Jaguars, or they're
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: just gonna get rolled because it's just it's a brutal
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: like the coaching the coaching staffs that they're going against
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: in the first couple of weeks. It's just it's a
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: really tough start the season for the Jaguars.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Look, if they get rolled, you got to start thinking
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: about what's gonna happen to Trevor Lawrence and how they're
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: going to manage that in the future, because that will
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: have been basically now going into a third season where
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: they have not exceeded expectations. Last year, he was only
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: injured in the second half of the year. Yeah, so
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: the first half he was terrible. And we've talked about this, like,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: I remember one year we loved Trevor Lawrence. I don't
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: know what it was thirty forty to one to lead
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the league in passing touchdowns, because we felt like he
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: had progressed so far and then oftentimes in the red
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: zone it looked.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: Like he regressed.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: So this to me feels like make it or break
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: a year for Trevor Lawrence. I know there's contract issues involved,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: but if he doesn't perform this year and this team
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: doesn't do well, then what are you fucking doing?
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: What are you waiting for?
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but again it'll be tough because with this division,
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: they could just once again get to seven wins.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: And even if.
• 41:57
  Speaker 4: They want to move on from, what do you do?
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: You don't have the dress. You're not high enough in
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: the draft to move on from. So yeah, they're I
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: think they're stuck with him for at least two more
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: seasons just because of the money.
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: Like we talked about the contract and.
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: I just we talk he's inconsistent, Like he'll he'll win games,
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: he can steal games for you, but then he'll turn
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: out against one of the worst teams and just not
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: show up or have a ton of turnovers. And yeah,
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: we're just we're on the same thing with the Jags.
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: It's like it's a make or break year and we like,
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: we like the unknown, but you like a little more
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: than I do well.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like my favorite bet has
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: a little more you can see it to believe it substance,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: even though it's probably wrong, and your favorite bet has
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: a you gotta believe it and understand that this is
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: going to happen somewhere in the NFL, and you're making
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: your bet on this team and this quarterback to do that,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: to make that Commander's type leap, to make that Texans
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: type leap from twenty twenty three.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Whether they're saying yours with more conviction.
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: I say this Titan's win thing that when I when
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: I do these, when I grade these out, this is
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: like one of the better higher grades I have on
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: a win total like this has a higher than a
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: sixer chance of hitting. That's like when I when I
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: run those type of numbers, that's really good win total wise.
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: That's why I'm so I mean you months ago, I
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: was really emphatic about the team because as soon as
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: I saw that, the fact that that's that's how big
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: of a difference it is putting in a quarterback at
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: a rookie that is that much.
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: Hot higher grade than I have it on Will Levis.
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: It's it is that big of an upgrade to a
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: team that last Y Reid bad luck and we talk
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: all the time about the last place schedule like it's
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: it's a cheak code. It's again, we'll get into all
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: these win totals and different teams. There's teams I don't
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: love that much. Like we started the Jaguars. I'm not
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: in love with them, but I get why Chad's bender
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: over because their second half is very easy. Yeah right,
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: and they so they could easily have a nice stretch
• 43:48
  Speaker 4: than the season. So that's that's something we're really breaking
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: down here is we believe in these teams. I'm giving
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: you my high hopes of this Tennessee team, but like
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: I said, I'm probably gonna be fading them week one
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: because it's such a bad spot.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: So that was the AFC South Divisional betting preview. We
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Network YouTube page when we Talk NFC South.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: Also check out at.
• 44:17
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