Latest / The Front / How we revealed China’s missile launch before it happened

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How we revealed China’s missile launch before it happened · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, July eighth, twenty twenty six. The Bank of
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Mum and Daddy's closing up shop. Family guarantees have halved
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: for first home buyers since the Federal budget in May
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: shook up asset tax treatment and buyers fear owing more
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: than their dwellings are worth. That's an exclusive life now
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: at Viaustralian dot com dot a U. Australia China relations
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  Speaker 1: are at a significant low after a Chinese submarine launched
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  Speaker 1: a nuclear capable intercontinental ballistic missile in the South Pacific,
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  Speaker 1: and Anthony Albanezi accused Beijing of a provocative act that
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  Speaker 1: undermined regional peace. Today, the journal who broke the story
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  Speaker 1: before the missile was even fired, Ben Packham, joins us
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: from the Solomon Islands. Ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Affairs and Defense correspondent. He's joining me from honi Ara,
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  Speaker 1: but on Monday Ben was in Fiji when he broke
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  Speaker 1: an incredible story.
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  Speaker 2: China's military has conducted a test launch of a ballistic
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  Speaker 2: missile with a dummy warhead in the South Bazific Ocean.
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  Speaker 1: Then tell me what you heard about the Chinese military
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  Speaker 1: and how you broke this ye on.
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  Speaker 3: Thanks Claire.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, look, sometime after the signing of the new Ocean
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  Speaker 4: of Peace alliance between Australia and Fiji, I heard from
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  Speaker 4: a contact that China had issued warnings to regional governments
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  Speaker 4: through its embassies that it was going to conduct a
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  Speaker 4: test of a nuclear capable missile within twenty four hours
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  Speaker 4: of that warning, which was roughly twelve noon Eastern time
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  Speaker 4: on Monday. And I thought, holy heck, this is quite
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  Speaker 4: a big story, and both immediately set to work.
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  Speaker 3: Trying to find additional sourcing because there was.
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  Speaker 4: No way that I was going to report on a
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  Speaker 4: single source a story of that magnitude. So I actually
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  Speaker 4: pretty quickly managed to get a second and even a
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  Speaker 4: third source, so countries around the region that received this warning,
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  Speaker 4: and they were busily kind of consulting amongst themselves, their
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  Speaker 4: warnings were just sort of filtering through a number of
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  Speaker 4: countries political systems. And managed to get that additional sourcing
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  Speaker 4: and was able to write the story for the Australia.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it had a huge impact straight away, of course,
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  Speaker 1: it went straight to the top of our website, our
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  Speaker 1: readers started consuming it eagerly. It was interesting to me
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  Speaker 1: Ben that China had gone to the trouble of alerting
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  Speaker 1: foreign governments that they were about to do this. Is
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  Speaker 1: that what you'd normally expect when they're going to do
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  Speaker 1: something like fire a test missile.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, it's good practice to do so they've got to
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  Speaker 4: get people out of the way and that sort of thing.
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  Speaker 4: And you know, if you do something like that by surprise,
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  Speaker 4: you know, people get pretty upset, and indeed the region
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  Speaker 4: will be and you know Australia and New Zealand, Japan
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  Speaker 4: and Taiwan have all expressed concerns about this.
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  Speaker 1: Here's Anthony Albanezi on Tuesday.
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  Speaker 5: We don't want to see any action that is destabilizing well,
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  Speaker 5: which undermines the peace security instability of the Pacific and
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  Speaker 5: the region. And there is no doubt that this is
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  Speaker 5: a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region.
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  Speaker 4: But certainly China did provide that early warning. They said
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  Speaker 4: that it would be within twenty four hours. As it happened,
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  Speaker 4: I think it was just roughly two hours after those.
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  Speaker 3: Warnings come through.
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  Speaker 4: This missile test is not something that can happen overnight,
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  Speaker 4: so it's quite likely.
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  Speaker 3: This has been planned for a long time.
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  Speaker 4: There was a submarine that launched it from somewhere in
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  Speaker 4: the South China Sea, so look, preparations.
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  Speaker 3: Were obviously underway. But I do believe and.
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  Speaker 4: Meaning analysts back that the timing was also unmistakably a
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  Speaker 4: warning to the region and to Australia and all of
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  Speaker 4: these Pacific partners that has been signing up to security
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  Speaker 4: agreements that China is very unhappy and that it is
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  Speaker 4: great military power and it will not be sort of
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  Speaker 4: contained its strategic aspirations won't be curtailed by Australia and
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  Speaker 4: specific partners.
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  Speaker 1: We're very used to China flexing its muscle in the
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  Speaker 1: South China Sea. This is the South Pacific ben which
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  Speaker 1: I think we and Fiji and the Solomons would regard
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  Speaker 1: as our patch. Does this tell us something different about
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  Speaker 1: the way China regards the South Pacific.
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  Speaker 4: Well, China has a big Blue Order Navy. They see
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  Speaker 4: themselves as a great military power to rival the United States.
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  Speaker 4: The US is, obviously has been post Second World War,
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  Speaker 4: the dominant military power, and the Pacific China is increasingly
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  Speaker 4: challenging US military supremacy in this region, and it's saying
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  Speaker 4: that it can reach deep into the region, and that
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  Speaker 4: that's something that the region you really needs to take
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  Speaker 4: note of.
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  Speaker 1: Penny Wong said straight away that she regarded this as
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  Speaker 1: an active destabilization in the region.
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  Speaker 6: This proposed test is in the context of a rapid
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  Speaker 6: military built up by China, which is lacking in the
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  Speaker 6: transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expects.
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  Speaker 1: Is that right, though, Ben, I mean, we're pretty used
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  Speaker 1: to the region being a bit of a contest between
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  Speaker 1: China and Australia. Is this just confirmation of what we
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  Speaker 1: already actually knew?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think it's a step above that.
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  Speaker 4: The last time China did a fight an ICB in
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  Speaker 4: the Pacific was in twenty twenty four, but before that
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  Speaker 4: there had not been one since nineteen eighty, so it's
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  Speaker 4: very rare. And you know, this is a very powerful capability.
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  Speaker 4: It's a nuclear capable missile. It had a dummy warhead,
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  Speaker 4: but it's a sort of unmissible advertisement or illustration of
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  Speaker 4: its military power.
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  Speaker 1: This was the message from Beijing following Monday's test fire.
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  Speaker 2: Well, China has responded to concerns about its latest missile
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  Speaker 2: test by telling countries not to read too much into it.
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  Speaker 1: So this has all happened while Anthony Albanesi is on
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  Speaker 1: a tour of the South Pacific, signing a defense pact
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  Speaker 1: in Fiji and visiting other islands. What is the purpose
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  Speaker 1: of the visit and how much does this kind of
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  Speaker 1: derail that or prove its point.
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  Speaker 4: Well, look, it's been a big Pacific trip for Anthony
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  Speaker 4: Albanzi and in fact we're just on the second day
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  Speaker 4: that in suv on Monday, he signed a very significant
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  Speaker 4: military treaty with Fiji. That is a mutual defense treaty.
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  Speaker 4: So it's a bona fide alliance which requires the parties
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  Speaker 4: to act to meet the common danger should either of
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  Speaker 4: them be attacked.
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  Speaker 5: These treaties represent one of the most significant endeavors Australia
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  Speaker 5: has ever undertaken in our history with any country.
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  Speaker 4: Now this makes Fiji Australia's fourth ally and we are
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  Speaker 4: Fiji's first military ally, and so it's a really big deal.
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  Speaker 4: The Prime Minister Anthony Elbanezi, it's his second alliance that
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  Speaker 4: he's signed in the space of a year.
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  Speaker 3: The last one was with Pappany Guinea.
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  Speaker 4: The Pook treaty which comes into effect on Wednesday, when
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  Speaker 4: he and James Marapei, Prime Minister of Puppeny Guinea, will
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  Speaker 4: exchange some diplomatic letters.
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  Speaker 7: The agreement sets out to better integrate the Australian and
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  Speaker 7: Papua New Guinea defense forces and even allows each to
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  Speaker 7: recruit troops from the other country.
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  Speaker 4: But in the meantime, we are in Solomon Islands where
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  Speaker 4: Anthony Albernizi is attending Independence Day celebrations. Here he's had
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  Speaker 4: a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Matthew Wahla and they've
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  Speaker 4: discussed comprehensive bilateral treaty that they want to sign by
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  Speaker 4: the end of the year, and no doubt they will
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  Speaker 4: have discussed Pm Wilay's push for a region wide security
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  Speaker 4: agreement with Australia. Now that's something that is going to
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  Speaker 4: really upset China, particularly as the suggestion is coming from
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  Speaker 4: Solomon Islands, which not so long ago was very cozy
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  Speaker 4: with Beijing. You remember Manassa Saga Varo signed a security
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  Speaker 4: treaty with Beijing about six years ago and Solomon Islands
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  Speaker 4: was one of the closest South Pacific island nations to China.
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  Speaker 4: That's been flipped since Matthew Waalay's coming to power. He
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  Speaker 4: was very anti China. Simon Islands and China will maintain
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  Speaker 4: healthy bilateral relations, but he's really looking to Australia to
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  Speaker 4: provide that security support, in particular policing support. You may
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  Speaker 4: remember the Chinese police here have been training local police
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  Speaker 4: but also getting out into the community, and the last
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  Speaker 4: year at the Pacific Island Forum, I reported that it
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  Speaker 4: was actually fingerprinting villages and getting them to sign household
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  Speaker 4: registration cards, all in the name of sort of community policing.
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  Speaker 4: Now that sort of thing might be fine in China,
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  Speaker 4: but it's really quite out of the.
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  Speaker 3: Ordinary in the Pacific, in any democratic country.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, what's Australia's level of influence now? I mean, how
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  Speaker 1: do we make sure that kind of thing doesn't happen
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  Speaker 1: anymore in countries where the word ally is very We
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  Speaker 1: are now allies of these countries. We're offering to come
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  Speaker 1: and defend them if they get attacked. What's our pool here?
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  Speaker 4: I would say that Australia has been quite clever in
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  Speaker 4: the way it has worked through the Pacific Forum, but
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  Speaker 4: also bilaterally.
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  Speaker 3: We have very healthy relationships at the moment.
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  Speaker 4: Possibly the one relationship that is less healthy and more
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  Speaker 4: conducive to China is care of Us. It's probably China's
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  Speaker 4: closest friend in the region at the moment.
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  Speaker 3: Vanihatu.
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  Speaker 4: We recently signed a very hard one policing and economic
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  Speaker 4: agreement with Vanihatu, but that was very difficult to get
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  Speaker 4: and you know, Vanihasa has sort of been on the
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  Speaker 4: fence in terms of which country to really side within
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  Speaker 4: this sort of strategic contest, still sort of sitting on
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  Speaker 4: the fence. It didn't give Australia everything it wanted in
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  Speaker 4: that security agreement. We wanted a rite of veto over
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  Speaker 4: foreign investments in its critical infrastructure. We didn't get that,
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  Speaker 4: but it did pledge that none of its ports, airports
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  Speaker 4: or anything like that would be militarized and it would
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  Speaker 4: consult with Australia on key infrastructure investments by other countries.
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  Speaker 1: Just finally, Ben, what's the price Australia's paying for these
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  Speaker 1: deals in terms of visa access, working rights, maybe even
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  Speaker 1: recruitment to our military for people from the Pacific Islands.
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  Speaker 3: It's a big price.
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  Speaker 4: It costs a lot of money to do anything in
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  Speaker 4: the Pacific. The distances of vast the needs are great.
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  Speaker 4: It will cost billions and billions over time. The recently
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  Speaker 4: signed Fiji alliance is a billion dollars over ten years.
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  Speaker 3: Multiply that by well. Pup in New Guinea is a
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  Speaker 3: huge financial commitment for US.
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  Speaker 4: We're supporting the NRL partnership and their military and all
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  Speaker 4: sorts of things.
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  Speaker 3: So look, you know this is very costly, but it's.
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  Speaker 4: Very important strategically for Australia's place in the region to
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  Speaker 4: be this sort of linery partner, particularly primary security partner.
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  Speaker 1: Ben Packham, I'll let you get back to the rest
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  Speaker 1: of the tour. Thank you very much.
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  Speaker 3: Thanks.
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  Speaker 1: Paul ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign Affairs and Defense correspondent.
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  Speaker 1: You can check out his scoops anytime at the Australian
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  Speaker 1: dot com dot au