Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️FED Flips On Massive Scandal! + Stock Market News 17 January 2024

Transcript

⚠️FED Flips On Massive Scandal! + Stock Market News 17 January 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix.
• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The market is dropping, the Fed is flipping as the scandal that undermines the market is growing bigger by the minute.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through all the key data points here.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed investor out there and therefore you can make more money and you get to financial freedom and all the wonderful things that we want here.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Now what is the actual scandal?
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Is it that the March rate cut odds have dramatically declined?
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: No, Is it that you haven't signed up yet for the life trading, trading on the coming Tuesday and therefore you won't know how to make your money work for you?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: It's not even that, although it's a great thing to do and it's free and you're lo'er more than all the best and banker knows, and how he trades and everything else that highly encourage it.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Is it the fact that those cats there behind me have stolen Winston's sofa?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: They have two of them.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: They're ganging up on him.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: No, it's not that either, although that is a tragedy.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: There is a RSPCA claim where Winston has filed.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: It's not even the fact that the 10-year government yields am I still on screen are above 4% again, which is really not where we want them, because the higher the yields, the lower stock prices?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Very simple, because you can get a zero risk return from the yield.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't you just get the yield as it goes higher?
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Is it the dollar?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: No, but the dollar is almost back where it was pre-December FOMC meeting.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: And remember that after the December meeting they were all wearing skirts, they were dancing around and singing rates are coming down.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: The rates are coming.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: No, no, you didn't know.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, but that's what happened.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: So it's not that either.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: So we're kind of undone all the exuberance around that.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Is it Fed President Waller who said yesterday I think rates will come down this year, not March, not May, not June, not July this year?
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: And then he said the fund rates can and should be lowered methodically and carefully.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: He sees no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past and the market obviously goes nuts on that.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So that's the Fed flip right there.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: And then for you.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: But is it the oil price?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: The Oxy CEO, Ticker Oxy, the thing that Warren Buffett bought because he felt like it?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: No, he actually knew something.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: The Occidental CEO said yesterday that there is going to be an actual oil shortage in 2025.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: There will actually be more demand for oil than there is coming out of the ground.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: That would be what Inflationary.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Higher rates for longer Supply chain inflation.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I thought we've just been there, Deja Vu, Groundhog Day, but that isn't it either.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Is it the gamma flip?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: And you might be thinking the what flip?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Well, me zooming a little bit on this, I'm making it as big as I possibly can.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Charts over Felix Goldmonds are saying that below 4,750, which is that purple line here, that's where the gamma flips.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I can see it.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I can see it on the charts myself too, that below here, bad things happen to good people.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Below the 4,750 line, the market gets more volatile.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: That's got something to do with options traders, market makers and lots of cake.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's any cake involved, but it'd be nice if there was cake involved, wouldn't it?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: There was never any cake on the trading floor.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: No, there was coffee, there was anything that contained caffeine, the occasional pizza bit of sushi, but never any cake.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's wrong with the Wall Street.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: That's really what's wrong with Wall Street.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: That's the real scandal.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: That's not it either.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Is it volatility?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: What's VIX?
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: This is VIX.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: This here is VIX.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Vix is fear.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Vix is literally just fear, and yesterday somebody got very fearful.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: We went up 9% on the fear index.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: How does that happen?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: It happens because somebody buys puts.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Puts are not the holds on the golf course.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: No, there are.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I know they don't call puts.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I don't really golf.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I guess you can tell it's insurance.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: You think the market's going to go down.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: You buy puts.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So really you want to buy puts when the market is at the all-time high and everybody's going singing kumbaya about how everything will be wonderful forever.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: And that's when you want to do it.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: And typically it happens when people start to get freaked out a little bit.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So yesterday we got freaked out a little bit.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: So that's something, but that's not the scandal either.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: This, my dear viewer, is the scandal.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: This is the scandal.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: This is what's preventing a recession.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: In gray, the gray bars are here.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: We've got private employment, companies employing people, and in red, we've got government employment as a proportion of new jobs created, and it's as you can see.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Now a quarter of every job created is the government.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: The last time we had such high levels was COVID and the government.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Well, the private sector created very little jobs and the government stepped in and hired all these people to take your temperature and put a mask on you and all that kind of thing.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what are they doing?
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Well, there's a private sector recession going on and there is a public sector let's cover this up so we can get re-elected going on.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: And this is not a political statement, this is not something Biden's invented.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: They've all done it, they always do it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But the scale of this is quite something.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: So, the worse the economy gets, the more the government employs people, throws money at it and therefore we don't really get a recession.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: And you might be thinking brilliant risk is gone.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: We're going to get a bank bailout in March too.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So let's make some money in the stock market, and I agree with you on that sentiment.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: But it just means it's going to get way worse down the road, Because there'll be all this debt, There'll be all these pointless government jobs created.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: I don't think anyone saying government services are getting better at least not that of what I hear and the private sector is actually in trouble and it also means that interest rates are possibly too high and they're therefore destroying the private sector.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: But because the public sector is covering it up, interest rates can't come down, because that would just cause inflation at this point.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So the government?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: If they just stopped fricking spending, we could actually have lower interest rates on the market, would you know?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Yo-yo up, yo-lo up, or whatever.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: So that's the real scandal.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: It's the data points we're being given are false, Continue to be false and I kind of wonder, like, are the Fed presidents so informed in on it?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Whatever that they're going along with this?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: They should just be like looking at this.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: They should be screaming off the top of their lungs every single day going, stop fricking spending money.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Government, it's you are the problem at this point.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I know we printed four trillion dollars and it was fun, you know, while it lasted, but you guys are now the problem.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: So stop employing people.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Seriously, it's just not going to make anything better.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: It's going to make it way worse down the road.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Now, of course, the only sensible way to get through this is to come and join me on Tuesday and then, all seriousness, learn how to make money out of your money.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: And this is for beginners.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So I assume zero knowledge, none whatsoever.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: You might never have looked at a stock chart.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: You don't know whether it's up or down.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: You know it's something.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: It's always great, it's always helpful, but you don't need to.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: We assume zero knowledge?
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Nada, nix, null.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Go to philipsfransorg slash webinar, sign yourself up.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Tellur is already signed up for it, as you can see, and there's another one behind me.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: You see that.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Sit in there.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: That's that like unionized strike.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: That's happening on my couch.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I put that there so Winston could sit there, because he likes to sit with me and I like it when he sits with me.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: But they have said no, so now he comes into the room, he sees them and then he backs out very slowly, which is rather sweet, Given that these guys weigh like about a tenth of his weight.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: He's very patient.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: He's very patient.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: This is not life, as you could probably tell, because I'm at a Jimmy Carr the comedian event, who is one of the most offensive English comedians and I quite like offensive people from time to time and he should be quite funny.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I've seen him before.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: It was a good laugh and a friend of mine said he had a spare ticket.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm going there and therefore, hence no life.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: So you can still ask me questions in the comments.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: You might have noticed I'm getting better at answering comments.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I aim to answer every single one of your comments Well, not the really unpleasant ones.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: They're not many of those, though, which is really nice.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Thank you for watching.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: See you live on Tuesday and have a beautiful day and let's make some money.