Latest / Closing Market Report / Sep 14 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260914 The September 14, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason of the University of Illinois Extension, features three primary discussions centered on agricultural markets, agronomic practices, and weather forecasting. Agricultural economist Frayne Olson explores the commodity markets, explaining how surging energy prices and transportation fuel surcharges influence grain basis levels and delivery timing without significantly impacting overall demand. Olson also highlights that widespread drought in North Dakota is negatively affecting local corn and soybean yields. In the second segment, University of Illinois entomologist Nick Seiter discusses the return on investment for prophylactic insecticide applications in corn and soybeans. He notes that standard insecticide inclusions with fungicides or seed treatments rarely provide economic value, as insect populations in Illinois typically do not reach yield-limiting thresholds. Finally, meteorologist Mark Russo from EverStream Analytics delivers a regional weather outlook, predicting warm, dry conditions conducive to rapid harvesting in the southern Corn Belt. Russo also notes that a historically strong El Niño pattern is bringing necessary moisture for hard red winter wheat planting across the southwestern Plains. 01:31 Ag Markets with Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University 11:52 The ROI of "it's included" Insecticides 18:36 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 14th day of September 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Frayne Olson. He is an agricultural economist based at North Dakota State University in Fargo. We will hear from Extension field crops entomologist from the University of Illinois, Nick Seiter, about the return on investment, or ROI, as it relates to insecticides included in products farmers use regularly. Then we will turn our attention to the weather forecast with meteorologist Mark Russo at EverStream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: December corn settled at $5.33 and a quarter, up three cents for the day. March at $5.48 and a half, higher. May at $5.55 and a quarter, up two and a quarter cents. November soybeans, $13.04 and a quarter, seven and a quarter higher. January at $13.20 and a quarter, up eight and a quarter cents. Bean meal futures, $3.40 higher. Bean oil, up 46 cents. Wheat futures for the December contract, down three and a quarter. It finished at $7.22 even. 01:31 Ag Markets with Frayne Olson, North Dakota State University Todd Gleason: Frayne Olson, agricultural economist at North Dakota State University, now joins us. He is traveling this week in Deadwood, South Dakota. What kind of conference or event are you attending, and are you speaking today? Frayne Olson: I am speaking. It is a conference for managers of cooperatives, both grain cooperatives as well as energy co-ops. They have an annual conference, and I have been asked to come in and speak about what is happening in the marketplace. Todd Gleason: I suspect, because you are at a conference that combines the two, that the subject matter I would like to take up today—and was thinking about as I was working through the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States, trying to get a handle on what that is like and considering what it really means to the marketplace—you might be getting many questions on that. I suppose that is the case, and they would like to know how energy is directly or indirectly related to the price of corn, soybeans, and wheat. How much so, and how? Frayne Olson: That is a great question, and I am getting many of those questions. Let us look at the futures market first and the impact it has there. I want to emphasize that, at the end of the day, the supply and demand conditions rule. If we start to see USDA reports, weather reports, or export sales numbers, all of those things have a direct impact on the grain markets. However, there is a spillover effect from other markets like the energy markets. If we enter a time period where the news in the agriculture industry is relatively quiet, traders still want to trade, so they look outside of agriculture to see what else is going on. Right now, there is a lot of information coming out about crude oil prices, diesel fuel prices, and changes in the energy markets. West Texas Intermediate crude and Brent crude are up again significantly this morning. I suspect some of that increase in the energy sector is spilling over into the grain sector through the investment community. They are looking for a bundle of investments that have a blend of commodities, and this blend of agriculture and energy makes a nice portfolio. We will likely see continued volatility spilling over where the grain market is being impacted by the energy markets. The other portion is more on the true supply and demand. As a farm manager, I have been getting many calls from farmers with concerns and complaints about the cost of diesel fuel, especially coming into harvest. That has a direct impact on the bottom line for the farm manager, but it also has an impact on the transportation system. Up here in the north, we are heavily dependent upon the rail sector. The railroads have fuel surcharge rates that they add onto the base rate for grain movements, and that has been going up significantly. We were talking a little bit before we came on air about the barge rates being very similar. What we will likely see are changes in basis levels dictated by increased transportation costs and those fuel surcharges. One thing I want to remind farmers is that part of the bill for the additional transportation costs is paid by the farmer at the farm gate, but the end user—whether it be an exporter, an ethanol plant, or a soybean crushing plant—also pays a portion of that. The amount the farmer pays as a seller versus the processor or end user as a buyer changes over time, but that cost is always shared. Will it impact basis levels? I suspect it already has, and it will continue to do so moving forward. Todd Gleason: Is the bottom line that this diesel fuel charge will impact demand for products? Frayne Olson: My opinion is no, it likely will not, but it may impact the flow of grain. By that, I mean it will have an impact on where the grain moves and, more importantly, when it moves. For instance, when I looked at the markets this morning, the nearby crude oil and diesel fuel prices were significantly higher than they were for November, December, and January. What the market is signaling is that if you are willing to ship and receive grain in the future instead of right now, we will be able to do that at a cheaper level. Diesel fuel prices in the future are expected to be lower than they are right now. This is a risk premium built into the energy complex because of all the uncertainty going on in the Middle East. Todd Gleason: That is for the end user who is trying to move this product. How does it trickle back to farmers, because you mentioned they will share the cost? Does that mean the market is telling the end users to wait, or is it telling the farmers to wait until later to buy diesel fuel? Frayne Olson: It is a combination of both, and it depends on how the railroads or the barges handle their price risk management for diesel fuel. From the end user standpoint, this is used as a hedging technique. We do not know how much of their fuel they have already locked in. Just like the farm manager, we do not know how much of their diesel fuel needs for harvest have been pre-booked and pre-priced. The question becomes how long these higher prices will last. The longer they last, the more of an impact they will have. Todd Gleason: Does it change in any way how producers should think about their marketing? Frayne Olson: Because it gets very complicated to anticipate all these movements, the basic message I am sending to farmers is to watch your basis levels. Not only basis levels over time—for example, a delivery right at harvest—but also look at the carry in the market. Is the marketplace signaling to you, not only in the form of the futures market but also in the form of basis levels, to try and deliver it now and speed up the flow of grain, or are they offering a disincentive, asking you to store it and deliver it later? That basis level is a combination of many things going on in the marketplace, not only diesel fuel prices but also who needs the grain, when they need it delivered, and at what locations. The simplest answer is to watch the basis levels because those are signaling what the market wants you to do. Todd Gleason: Finally, before I let you go, the crop in parts of North Dakota is really rough. How widespread is that? Frayne Olson: It is quite widespread. We had very dry conditions in the spring in the western portion of the state. The eastern portion was in better shape this last spring, but as we moved through the summer, the east got very dry. If you look at the drought monitor maps right now, the eastern portion of the state is probably experiencing some of the tougher regions, which is impacting corn and soybean yields. We grow sugar beets in the region, and it is impacting those as well. We are just starting to get the soybean harvest rolling now, with a few beans coming off the field. Early yield reports are not good. We are going to have a much tougher crop this year. The wheat crop came off in slightly better condition because it matured before the worst of the drought conditions impacted us. However, corn and beans will have a tough year. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Frayne. Frayne Olson: Always a pleasure to visit. I appreciate the call. 11:52 The ROI of “it’s included” Insecticides Todd Gleason: More often than not these days, an insecticide of some sort will be included with the products that producers are applying to their farm fields. I spoke with Illinois Extension field crops entomologist Nick Seiter about the return on investment for these products and his recommendations. Nick Seiter: For the last three years, we have been doing work looking at insecticide return on investment. We evaluated insecticides applied to the seed and applied at different growth stages, R3 and R5, to see how often that provides a return in terms of soybean yield and what that does to the insect populations out there. The general overview we have seen so far is that we very rarely exceed the economic threshold of an insect pest. The recommendations we have for when an insecticide is likely to provide a return have not been exceeded in these trials, and we have not returned a yield from those insecticides applied in those low-insect situations. This represents most of the soybean fields we see in Illinois. Most of the time, our insect pest populations, at least in recent years, have been quite low. Todd Gleason: This hearkens back to a conversation we have had several years in a row regarding fungicide applications. When an insecticide is included automatically, unless there is an insect present in the field that will damage yield, it is not there long enough to do anything, and the return on investment is negligible. Nick Seiter: That is correct. These insecticides are often very low cost, but they are frequently applied in situations where there is nothing yield-limiting insect-wise. When we see that, even though the cost is low, the return still becomes zero. Another thing to keep in mind is that what is generally included with that fungicide is a cheap pyrethroid insecticide that will not last more than five to seven days in the field. It will not function as a preventative. It will only provide a return if there is an active infestation at that time at a yield-limiting level, which is not very common in Illinois. Todd Gleason: For the insecticides applied to seeds, what is the expectation for them, and why is the ROI not worthwhile? Nick Seiter: The expectation is that you will be controlling stand-reducing insect pests. Soybeans are very resilient to stand loss, much more resilient than corn. Furthermore, our incidence of stand-reducing insects controlled by these products—things like white grubs and wireworms—is low. When we do encounter situations with those yield-limiting soil insect pests, they often occur where the seed treatment has been washed away or where they are coming in after it has worn off. We do not always see good control depending on the species and the situation. Cool, wet soils that are likely to lead to stand-reducing activity are also not ideal for the efficacy of the material itself. Todd Gleason: For clarification, you discussed applications that might happen with the seed at the R3 stage and the R5 stage. We just discussed the seed stage. What are the R3 and R5 stages in soybeans? Nick Seiter: The R3 stage in soybeans is right when the pod is first beginning to form. The R5 stage is when the seed is starting to form inside the pod. You transition at R5 to insects that attack the pods and seeds, like stink bugs and bean leaf beetles. Todd Gleason: Would those be applied with some other application or on their own? Nick Seiter: R5 is not a common application time for us in terms of fungicides. We are looking at R5 in this work largely to see what happens when you control pod-feeding insects. Ultimately, the story is the same: if we do not have damaging levels of insects, we will not see a yield return. Most of the time at R5 in these fields, our insect activity is higher, but it still does not hit economically damaging levels, and those applications do not provide a return. Todd Gleason: Are there applications or thoughts you have regarding the ROI for insecticides applied prophylactically for corn? Nick Seiter: It is a similar situation. In corn, that crop is more susceptible to stand reduction. On the other hand, the insects that cause that stand reduction targeted by our seed treatments are still not very common. When we get to the tassel stage, which is when most fungicides are applied, there is very little going on insect-wise that we are cleaning up with that application. In fact, some of the insects we might target with a foliar application are often too late for things like corn leaf aphid or too early to prevent corn rootworm egg-laying in northern Illinois. It is not always a great timing, even if you do have the damaging insect pest. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Nick. 18:36 Ag Weather with Mark Russo, EverStream.ai Todd Gleason: Let us turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Mark Russo is here. He is with EverStream Analytics. Hello Mark, thanks for being with us today. Mark Russo: Hello there, Todd. Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: Tell me about the weather in the Corn Belt. Mark Russo: Looking ahead for this week and next week, we are going to see a rainfall pattern that features above-normal rainfall across the northern half of the Midwest, whereas the southern Corn Belt will be on the drier side. From a temperature standpoint, both this week and next week will continue to feature anomalously warm temperatures. There is a brief break from this late summer heat with more seasonal temperatures today, but temperatures will start rebounding again. From late this week into the first half of next week, temperatures will be well above normal across the entire Corn Belt. Todd Gleason: What does this mean in terms of the pattern for harvesting summer crops in the southern Midwest and down in the Delta? Mark Russo: This drier pattern will allow for rapid harvesting. It will also lower river levels, which is something to watch. For the northern belt, with the rain activity, it is likely coming too late to impact yield potential. Although for some of the latest maturing crops in the northern Midwest, they could still benefit a bit this week. However, we are in the bottom of the ninth when it comes to weather having any meaningful impact on yield potential. There will be some increase in river levels up north, but overall, there is a continued drier bias. Todd Gleason: We had talked early on in the season about having a very wet fall. Is that still in the offing? Mark Russo: That still is in the offing. It is tough to say exactly how wet it will be, but historically, during El Niño seasons—and this is looking to be the strongest El Niño on record—there is an abundance of tropical moisture that feeds from the Eastern Pacific and up north. We have already seen some of that. We think that risk will remain heightened as we go through October into November, so that is certainly something to watch over the next few months. Todd Gleason: Turning your attention to the southwestern part of the United States and the hard red winter wheat growing regions, they need some rainfall. I am going to guess they are not going to get it. Mark Russo: Actually, we do think they are in an improving pattern across the Plains hard red winter wheat belt, especially from Kansas southward and westward through eastern Colorado and down through the Texas Panhandle. That moisture situation related to the strong El Niño is providing a setup for much better rainfall across the Plains hard red winter wheat belt. Even in recent days, we have seen an increase in activity, and we think that will just continue through month-end and into October, which is very timely for the planting of the new crop. Todd Gleason: A quick word on Canada before I let you go. Mark Russo: Canada’s weather continues to be quite active and wet, especially this week in the southern prairies, and they are already well behind schedule. Some of the slowest harvest progress for spring wheat, canola, and barley that we have seen in the past five to ten years. That will continue this week and may even last into next week. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Mark Russo: You are welcome, Todd. Todd Gleason: That is Mark Russo. He is with EverStream Analytics and helped us wrap up this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. Find us online and listen to us on-demand at willag.org. I am Extension’s Todd Gleason.