Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Can SpaceX Reach Mars Orbit by 2026?

Transcript

Can SpaceX Reach Mars Orbit by 2026? · Elon Musk Podcast

0:01
Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
0:05
This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that
0:08
shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink.
0:13
I'm your host Will Walden. SpaceX plans to launch a
0:18
Starship or numerous Starships to Mars orbit in 2026.
0:24
A SpaceX needs to complete orbital Starship flights before
0:27
attempting the Mars launch window.
0:32
SpaceX plans to launch a Starship or numerous Starships
0:35
to Mars orbit in 2026, but SpaceX needs to complete
0:40
numerous steps in order to get there.
0:41
They need to complete orbital Starship flights before
0:44
attempting the Mars launch window.
0:46
SpaceX also needs to demonstrate on orbit refueling to provide
0:50
enough propellant for the trip. And also SpaceX needs to resolve
0:54
heat shield durability for atmospheric entry at Mars speeds
0:59
if they do choose to enter the atmosphere Mars.
1:02
Now SpaceX has conducted 9 integrated Starship test flights
1:06
through mid 2025 and they reached space on the 9th flight,
1:11
but the Starship failed to stay under control in orbit.
1:14
SpaceX fired Raptor 3 prototype engines more than 300 times in
1:19
pre launch testing, and SpaceX also improved engine thrust and
1:22
cut engine mass in that development program.
1:25
The Raptor 3 prototypes. Now they must achieve full orbit
1:30
with booster recovery before targeting Mars.
1:33
SpaceX boosted its FAA approval toward permitting 25 Starship
1:37
flights per year, and SpaceX expects to fly the upgraded
1:41
version 3 Starship by around late 2025, early 2026.
1:47
The calls for the V3 craft to fly with Raptor 3 engines will
1:52
be what SpaceX will be using on those flights.
1:57
No, they need orbital refueling too.
1:59
It's a critical Mars precondition.
2:01
SpaceX must launch Taker Starships to refill a Mars bound
2:06
ship in orbit. They never performed A cryogenic
2:09
fuel transfer at scale in orbit. SpaceX needs to test docking and
2:13
fluid plumbing in zero gravity before resuming Mars missions.
2:19
They they face the extreme engineering challenges.
2:22
I've also landing on Mars. I don't think they're going to
2:24
do that in the first missions, but they're probably going to be
2:27
testing the systems while they're on the way to Mars and
2:31
also while they're in Mars orbit, little by little, piece
2:34
by piece. So the next few flights they can
2:37
send things or maybe some sort of cargo to the surface of Mars.
2:42
They'll need to manage high speed entry at 7.5 kilometers
2:45
per second and heat shield stress in atomic oxygen
2:49
conditions. They got to perform a propulsive
2:52
landing on a very thin atmosphere that provides minimal
2:55
drag, unlike Earth. And they also must gather entry
3:00
data during the 2026 uncrewed missions to improve their
3:03
systems. So if they actually do enter
3:05
Mars orbit and go into the atmosphere, they could dip into
3:09
the atmosphere and fly out possibly if I, I'm not 100% sure
3:15
about this, but they might test that.
3:18
What I'm what I'm assuming is they're going to go to Mars, do
3:23
a bunch of Mars orbits, and then either fling A Starship into
3:27
space with those orbits and maybe go someplace else or do
3:31
some orbits and then come back and maybe orbit Earth with that
3:35
Starship if they have enough. Maybe a gravity assist by Mars.
3:40
I'm not 100% sure because they haven't released that data yet,
3:44
but they have to manage Starship development alongside.
3:47
There are Artemis obligations too and that's very difficult.
3:50
They're doing 2 absolutely insane missions at the same
3:55
time. SpaceX needs to complete an
3:58
uncrewed lunar Starship demonstration under this NASA
4:01
contract and they have to refuel the Starship in orbit orbit
4:05
before it reaches the moon for the Artemis program.
4:09
And they have to launch Taker tankers to fill the HLS craft as
4:13
well as the Mars bound ships. So once they can figure out the
4:18
on orbit refueling, they'll be in a good position to go to the
4:23
moon and also to Mars. They have to make a lot of
4:28
starships too, so that you have to what I think it was Gwynn
4:33
Shotwell. So they have to do hundreds of
4:36
Starship test launches without humans on them in order to
4:41
launch humans in a Starship. Now, for these missions, they're
4:43
not going to be launching people with the Starship, but they will
4:46
be launching some cargo, maybe satellites for Mars as well.
4:50
Because if Starship can demonstrate that they can deploy
4:56
Starlink satellites in Earth orbit, there's no reason why
5:00
they couldn't do that in Mars orbit as well.
5:03
Because they want to have Mars link.
5:05
They're working on a star link system that will communicate
5:09
between the surface of Mars to the Mars link satellites in
5:13
orbit around Mars and then back to Earth.
5:16
And maybe there's going to be a relay station in the middle.
5:19
I'm not 100% sure about that because SpaceX hasn't released
5:22
any of that information yet, but they need to have Starship crew
5:28
certified eventually because a lunar Starship for Artemis 3
5:31
needs to carry people from Mars orbit down to the surface of
5:36
Mars. And crew certified just means
5:39
people can live and work in the Starship or they can use the
5:43
Starship to transfer people. They don't need to bring people
5:47
back to Earth or to Mars in the Starship, but what they will do
5:50
is take people from Mars orbit to the surface of Mars in the
5:54
Starship, and it has to be certified for that.
5:57
They have to have a lot of launches too.
6:00
They have to have high cadence of launches in late 2026 to hit
6:04
this Mars window. They need to launch multiple
6:08
tankers and at least 2 Mars ships in rapid succession.
6:13
Now, if they do this and there's pad damage, or if there's
6:17
regulatory delays or any other major failure, it's no go.
6:23
SpaceX must maintain uninterrupted operations across
6:27
all of their launch sites, including Star Base in Texas and
6:32
the Cape in Florida. Now, these missions are placed
6:38
against Artemis scheduling. SpaceX will likely perform the
6:42
uncrewed lunar HLS demo in late 2026 or early 2027, and they
6:48
also may delay Mars if NASA requires full focus on crude
6:52
moon landing. SpaceX can't sacrifice Artemis
6:56
obligations without jeopardizing long term funding from NASA and
7:00
the taxpayers of the United States.
7:03
Now, SpaceX holds 50% odds of launching to Mars in 2026,
7:08
according to Elon Musk said we might, we might not.
7:12
It's about a 5050 thing right now.
7:13
We're going to work on it and we're going to get as close as
7:15
possible. But like I said before, the
7:17
Artemis program takes precedent over the Mars program.
7:20
The Mars program is an internal SpaceX program.
7:24
It's not a NASA program. This is all SpaceX funding this,
7:27
and they made this mission so Elon Musk can do his vision of
7:33
launching something to Mars eventually.
7:35
What do you originally wanted was to launch an ICBM missile
7:40
from Earth and take a plant to Mars.
7:43
That's it. Something very simple.
7:45
Nobody would send him, sell him an ICBM.
7:49
They kept changing the price and telling him they weren't going
7:52
to sell it to him. They thought he was a silly
7:54
businessman from America. He was a Russian ICBM he was
7:57
trying to buy. And eventually he just said, you
7:59
know what, I'm just going to make my own rocket company
8:01
instead. That makes more sense than
8:03
trying to buy an ICBM. I mean, you know, 20 years later
8:08
we have a mega rocket in Starship that will be launching
8:12
to Mars hopefully by the end of 2026.
8:14
But you know, if Artemis program takes precedent which NASA could
8:21
really put the brakes on Mars missions in a way.
8:25
But if and just say, you know what, Elon, SpaceX, we need your
8:30
full cooperation to get people to the lunar surface.
8:34
We need your help and we're going to send a Starship around.
8:37
They're going to orbit the moon first before they orbit Mars for
8:41
sure. Now they there's another window
8:46
coming up for Mars. It's 2028 and 2029 Mars window.
8:55
It could slip the 2028 window and they could continue with the
8:58
strategy. So Artemis would continue at
9:00
2026 with the HLS demo in late 2026 or early 2027.
9:06
Then the Mars window could slip the 2028.
9:09
And we're talking Elon time here.
9:10
So whenever Elon says they have a 5050 chance of something, more
9:14
than likely it's going to slip because remember how long we've
9:18
been waiting for full self driving, like 100% human
9:22
unassisted full self driving. It's been a decade and Elon has
9:27
always said, well next summer or later this year we're going to
9:30
have full self driving. Same thing.
9:33
Rockets are more difficult than full self driving.
9:36
Rocket to Mars, especially the size of a Starship is much more
9:39
complicated in a way than full self driving.
9:42
So if you need to launch a rocket to the moon for the
9:49
Artemis program, then you have to do that in order to continue
9:54
that funding from NASA so you can get the money so you can
9:57
launch your rocket to Mars. They can leverage lunar
10:00
refueling tests as progress towards Mars readiness too.
10:03
So when they go to the moon, they were going to be refueling
10:09
in Earth orbit. And then that makes sure that
10:12
they can do that for Mars as well.
10:14
They'll be Mars ready because they'll be able to refuel their
10:16
rocket in the in the orbit of the Earth.
10:21
You know, if there's critical milestones that need to be hit
10:24
for Artemis, SpaceX will definitely do that first because
10:27
they need that money from from for the Mars missions from NASA.
10:33
Now, we don't really know what is going to happen with
10:38
Starship. Right now at Starbase, they're
10:41
testing Starship for Flight 10 and Flight 10 will probably be
10:47
very similar to Flight 9 in a way.
10:50
They may be do. They may do a Starlink
10:54
demonstration where they open the Hatch and launch some dummy
10:57
Starlinks that have some some data relay equipment on them so
11:02
they can see how they function in space and see how the launch
11:06
goes or the deployment of the Starlinks.
11:09
But other than that, they're probably going to stick to the
11:12
same game plan. Launch a booster with a Starship
11:15
on top, return the booster to the launch site, and then the
11:20
Starship will get to, you know, get on orbit and then splash
11:26
down in the Indian Ocean somewhere.
11:29
And then if they can figure out the Starlink deployment, that
11:32
will be a huge technical hurdle that they have overcome.
11:37
But they have to prove orbital Starship flights, booster
11:39
recovery, docking, refueling, and Mars landing all in a whole
11:44
like one sequence. And they have to be competitive
11:49
with the resources, with themselves, because the Mars
11:53
campaign and the Artemis campaign are working side by
11:56
side in parallel. So we're at a critical juncture
12:00
right now. And they must meet this
12:03
aggressive schedule. So the timeline for a Mars
12:07
mission does not slip till 2028. It's OK if it slips a few years,
12:11
but once it goes past that, there's going to be a longer
12:14
delay because Earth and Mars won't be that close again for a
12:18
while. So there's complex key steps
12:23
coming up this next flight. Flight 10, really important.
12:28
Flight 11, Flight 12, Flight 13, also very, very important.
12:34
And if SpaceX does succeed in launching and perhaps landing a
12:38
Starship on Mars in 2026, it would mark the beginning of a
12:43
new era of interplanetary flight.
12:45
This is effectively a trial run for Musk's ultimate vision of a
12:49
bustling Mars colony with millions of people.
12:53
And if they're forced to delay until 2028, it would not be a
12:57
failure so much as a realistic adjustment, giving time to get
13:00
the technology right, getting these rockets right.
13:03
In either case, the next few years will be critical, and also
13:05
exciting. By 20252026, we'll know if
13:09
Starship can fly repeatedly or if more groundwork is needed for
13:16
it and Artemis and Mars are both on the horizon and SpaceX finds
13:21
itself at the crux between Earth and making life multiplanetary.
13:29
Now, considering all facts are factors, 2028 is a more
13:34
realistic time frame for the first Starship Mars attempt,
13:38
giving SpaceX a couple more years to mature the system.
13:41
No more explosions, even a two year slip would be unsurprising.
13:46
In fact, NASA's Inspector General and GAO reports have
13:50
projected Artemis 3 and the Starship's readiness likely
13:54
slipping to 2028 from moon landing, which indirectly
13:57
suggests the Starship won't be fully operational much before
14:01
then. And even Elon Musk has
14:03
implicitly acknowledged this possibility by saying if they
14:06
miss 2026, they will try in the next window.
14:09
Missing one window is not mission ending.
14:12
It took NASA's Apollo program several tries and failures
14:15
before the successful moon landing.
14:17
But Mars is a much, much tougher target.
14:23
SpaceX needs to accomplish so many things by late 2026, and
14:29
it's very ambitious. But can they make the 2026 date
14:34
Elon Musk had hoped? Now get this Musk had originally
14:39
hoped for an uncrewed Mars mission as early as 2018 and a
14:45
crude mission by 2024. And of course, we see that none
14:49
of that has happened. Now, 2026 is the new target.
14:55
And of course, there's always skepticism about this, about
14:58
whether the schedule can be met. Is it possible?
15:00
Yeah, of course, if testing goes extraordinarily well.
15:04
But it leaves virtually no slack for errors or setbacks.
15:06
If another rocket were to explode, it could be months of
15:09
delays, 2-3 months of delays. And we launch says they have
15:13
about two or three rockets almost ready as star base.
15:15
So, you know, but he also says it's a 5050 chance for the 2026
15:21
launch. They need to hit these
15:23
milestones though. Full orbital propellant transfer
15:27
test, likely setting up a Starship tanker to refuel
15:30
another Starship in Earth orbit proving this capability works
15:34
without a successful refueling demo.
15:36
By the time a Mars mission would have to be put on hold and they
15:39
have to figure this out. They also have to do a long
15:43
duration mission shakedown and by like mid 2026.
15:48
And this is going to be like SpaceX might attempt an uncrewed
15:51
loop around the moon or something, or a high orbit
15:53
endurance test with Starship to mimic some aspects of deep space
15:57
missions, testing communications, life support
16:00
systems, power over days or possibly weeks.
16:04
It's going to take months to get to Mars, so maybe they'll do it
16:06
for two months because two week test for a 6 to 9 month trip,
16:13
that's not a lot of data to to bring in for that type of trip.
16:17
Additionally, around the time SpaceX would need to launch the
16:20
HLS demo it, that's of course if we stick to the 2027 crude lunar
16:25
landing mission timeline. And that will actually involve
16:29
multiple tanker launches in a lunar landing attempt.
16:33
So if SpaceX can nail the lunar landing attempt and also nail
16:39
those tanker, you know, Phillips and launches, then there's a
16:46
really good chance the SpaceX could get to Mars after that.
16:50
Now, if everything is done and late 2026 happens, and if all of
16:55
that is successful to prepare and launch the Mars bound
17:00
Starships during the narrow window at the end of 2026, it
17:04
could involve about 10 launches in a matter of weeks, launching
17:09
several tankers and a couple of Mars vehicles from Starbase and
17:12
Kennedy Space Center. Each Mars bound Starship would
17:15
likely require several tanker flights for refueling before
17:18
departure unless the payload is kept very small.
17:22
So they could, you know, they don't really need to take a
17:24
Rover or anything like that. They could take something small.
17:27
Ivan could in as a matter of fact, fulfill his obligation of
17:33
having a plant go to either a the surface of Mars or urban
17:39
orbit of Mars if they want to keep that payload very small.
17:43
That's, you know, very light payload.
17:47
But it's an intense campaign and that alone would be a huge feat,
17:52
especially with the high cadence launch depose maybe 10 depots,
17:57
Elon was saying, and some people in NASA were saying between 10
18:00
and 20. So I'm going to err on the side
18:03
of caution to say about 15 fuel depots in order for them to get
18:08
to Mars. But in the event one or more
18:12
Starships reach Mars, which they'd arrive in about mid 2027,
18:16
SpaceX would gather data from those Landers.
18:19
Now concurrently in 2027, focused shifts to Artemis 3
18:23
crude moon landing. Now this will be using the
18:27
experience from the uncrewed test, which is another mission
18:32
that must succeed to maintain credibility of the Starship
18:36
flight. Now, everything that they're
18:38
doing here is unprecedented, any number of things, a major launch
18:41
failure, a technical roadblock and refueling, regulatory
18:44
hurdles, environmental lawsuits, supply chain issues, it could
18:48
all slow down SpaceX and Artemis.
18:51
Spacex's strategy is to test as fast as possible and fail as
18:55
fast as possible to learn as fast as possible, which is why
18:58
they value having the FAA's blessing for so many Starship
19:01
watches. But some failures can be timely
19:05
or cost a lot of time. April 2023 cause months long
19:11
pause on SpaceX as it improved its launchpad and the FAA
19:16
assessed safety updates because they destroyed the launchpad.
19:20
Basically. A similar pause in 2025 or 2026
19:24
could absolutely derail the Mars schedule, especially if it's
19:27
like a six month delay. There's also the question of
19:30
regulatory in public perception. Launching humongous rockets 400
19:34
feet tall frequently carries the risks to the environment and
19:39
public safety. If Elon's rockets keep blowing
19:42
up, people are going to get worried and they're going to put
19:44
the kibosh on the whole thing. SpaceX already had to implement
19:48
mitigation measures after the early Starship tests.
19:51
Scattered debris a lot around the launch site.
19:54
If any accident were to have off site impacts, if there's some
19:57
debris that falls on an island where people live or hits a boat
20:01
or something like that, if there's any sort of catastrophic
20:05
explosion or some sort of red, it could prompt further reviews
20:08
or restrictions. And then they could have another
20:12
huge delay, six months to a year, depending on how
20:15
catastrophic this thing is. Now, as the company pushes
20:19
forward, they'll need to show that they can do it safely and
20:22
responsibly. But like I said before, 2028,
20:27
maybe a more realistic timeline for the Starship's first Mars
20:32
attempt. Now, this will give SpaceX some
20:35
time to figure out exactly why the upper stage of Starship
20:40
keeps blowing up. If it happens again on this
20:43
flight, that would be four in a row.
20:47
And that's not good for Starship, that's not good for
20:49
Elon Musk, and that's not good for a Mars mission, nor is it
20:52
good for an Artemis mission. Because if they, if they want to
21:01
launch people or I guess take people from orbit down to the
21:05
surface of the moon, they can't have any of that.
21:08
They can't have any sort of bad engineering going on with that.
21:14
So even if Starship can be launched, refueled, and sent on
21:19
a trans Mars trajectory, the challenge of landing on Mars is
21:24
absolutely enormous. No vehicle nearly as large or
21:28
heavy as Starship, which is about 50 meters tall and about
21:32
100 tons empty. And it'll be not completely
21:36
empty when it gets to Mars, but it's never nothing like that has
21:41
ever attempted to land on Mars. For comparison, NASA's heaviest
21:44
successful Lander so far, which is the Perseverance Rover in
21:48
2021, was about one metric ton. So this is 100 times that
21:54
weight. Starship is 2 orders of
21:57
magnitude heavier than that. Starship will rely on its
22:00
stainless steel heat shield tiles, a stainless steel body
22:05
and its heat shield tiles to protect it during the blistering
22:08
atmospheric entry. Now this is a phase that will
22:11
subject it to intense heating. SpaceX has tested Starships heat
22:16
shield materials and simulated Mars atmospheric conditions, and
22:19
acknowledged that higher levels of atomic oxygen on Mars will
22:22
create harsher conditions for the heat shield during entry.
22:27
But ensuring the heat shield can endure entry without excessive
22:30
damage, especially if Starship might be reused later, is a huge
22:34
risk. The company's experience with
22:36
Starship reentries on Earth is very limited.
22:40
There's subscale tests that happened for SM8SM-9 back in
22:45
2020 and that demonstrated the belly flop in the flip maneuver
22:48
for landing from high altitude, but those are much lower speeds
22:52
than an interplanetary return. There's a non trivial chance for
22:56
Starships to arrive at Mars could absolutely fail and blow
23:00
up during entry or touchdown, which SpaceX knows and they
23:04
readily admit this. The whole point of the 2026
23:07
missions is to do what they're doing on Earth, and that's to
23:09
learn and iterate, fail fast, fail often, and fix things as
23:14
fast as possible. And when Starship reaches the
23:20
lower atmosphere of Mars, it'll fire its engines to perform a
23:24
propulsive landing. And the lower Martian gravity,
23:27
it's about 38% of Earth's gravity, works in Starship's
23:31
favor. Vehicle weighs less on Mars, but
23:33
the thin air means almost all the deceleration must come from
23:37
engines and the drag of the hull.
23:41
And this is because it's not going to use parachutes.
23:44
SpaceX will try to land very gently, but we should not be
23:48
surprised if the first attempt ends in a crash or they lose
23:52
signal and there's a rapid unscheduled disassembly or a
23:56
rut. Now, even unsuccessful landings
23:59
would provide data on how the vehicle behaves in Mars
24:02
conditions. Musk has even floated the idea
24:05
that they might do multiple uncrewed landings with robots
24:09
first and only attempt a crude landing on the second or third
24:14
wave of missions after gaining confidence.
24:17
So in short, developing a reliable Mars landing system is
24:21
a huge hurdle that will likely take several iterations.
24:25
That's why Spacex's 2026 missions are going to be on
24:28
crew. And then they'll probably have a
24:30
few Optimus robots in there, to be honest with you.
24:33
I mean, they can walk now, they can navigate.
24:35
But I mean, if you strap them down in a rocket, they can
24:39
provide valuable data of what's going to happen to people when
24:42
they do these missions. And SpaceX expects a huge
24:46
learning curve with all of these missions.
24:48
And Artemis will learn from this.
24:51
The Artemis program will learn from this.
24:53
And the optimist robots will probably learn from this, too.
24:58
The willingness to risk failure is just part of Starships
25:03
strategy, SpaceX strategy for this.
25:05
Musk has openly said he promises more risky launches in order to
25:09
accelerate the development. But as we know, SpaceX and
25:14
Starship are running parallel to the Artemis program, the HLS
25:18
program. NASA has selected a variant of
25:22
Starship to land astronauts on the moon for Artemis 3 and
25:25
beyond, meaning SpaceX must absolutely demonstrate Starships
25:29
capability and lunar orbit and landing before that crude
25:33
mission takes place at all. This introduces schedule
25:36
pressure and could force SpaceX to prioritize certain tests or
25:40
missions that support Artemis, potentially at the expense of a
25:45
Mars expedition in the same time frame.
25:49
Now, NASA's current schedule, 2025, maybe late 2020.
25:54
Yeah. 2025 for Artemis 2. That's crude flight around the
25:58
moon. Late 2026 for Artemis 3.
26:00
First crude landing, the Artemis program.
26:04
Recently the schedule was slipped and NASA officials
26:06
indicated Artemis 3 is likely to occur in 2027.
26:11
So this gives Elon Musk and SpaceX a little bit of time
26:14
before they have to have their crew Starship ready.
26:20
They've acknowledges the development delays with Starship
26:22
and HLS and all the other systems too, which is the space
26:26
suits landing, you know a protocols etcetera and some of
26:32
the ground systems at NASA 2026 is when Starship is needed for
26:39
the moon landing, which is a massive funded high priority
26:42
mission. Now, before Artemis 3 can
26:44
happen, SpaceX must one, land an uncrewed demonstration of
26:49
Starship HLS to lunar orbit and possibly to the lunar surface,
26:53
providing it can dock with Orion and land safely, and two,
26:58
perfect the orbital refueling process.
27:01
Since the lunar Starship will need to be refueled in Earth
27:04
orbit to have several propellants, enough propellant
27:08
to reach the Moon surface and return to lunar orbit, NASA's
27:11
contract with SpaceX requires a successful uncrewed landing test
27:16
prior to a crude landing. SpaceX may do a few Starship
27:23
attempts on the Moon, maybe some crashes on the Moon as well like
27:27
we talked about with Mars. This implies that in 2026,
27:30
SpaceX will likely be conducting A dedicated moon landing test
27:33
with Starship. SpaceX plans to use a modified
27:36
Starship without the heat shield or flaps optimized for the
27:39
vacuum of space and lunar surface.
27:42
Now for Artemis, which must be launched and refueled multiple
27:45
times in Earth orbit to fill its tanks for a moon journey.
27:50
Now SpaceX will be very busy with Artemis related Starship
27:54
missions in 2025 through 2027. The company will have to juggle
27:58
the demands of NASA, which is providing billions of dollars in
28:01
HLS alongside its Mars aspirations.
28:05
And NASA has made it clear that crew safety and mission success
28:09
for Artemis are top priorities. The Artemis 3 schedule has been
28:12
adjusted to allow teams to work through challenges associated
28:16
with first time developments, operations and integration,
28:20
which gives SpaceX and Axiom, which is the spacesuit partner,
28:24
additional time for testing new capabilities.
28:27
This includes the refueling and docking techniques Starship
28:30
needs. And NASA will not rush a crude
28:33
moon landing if Starship isn't ready.
28:35
They're not going to risk people's lives in order for them
28:39
just to do a mission. Stands to reason that if a
28:41
choice must be made, SpaceX would prioritize fulfilling the
28:45
Artemis program milestones over a speculative 2026 Mars launch.
28:49
NASA's mission is has hard deadlines and international
28:53
significance, whereas a private Mars demo, while it's pretty
28:57
exciting for all of us, can be postponed, it can be pushed back
29:00
a little bit now. There's also the practical
29:02
considerations of resource allocation.
29:05
Can SpaceX build enough Starships to do everything at
29:07
once? Single Mars attempt might
29:10
involve 5 Starships to Mars as Musk has said, plus perhaps 5 to
29:14
8 tanker Starships to fuel them simultaneously with the Starship
29:18
HLS vehicles and tankers needed for the Artemis 3 uncrewed and
29:22
crude missions that could easily require on the order of 10 to 15
29:27
Starship upper stages and a similar number of super heavy
29:31
boosters all in a short period. Now SpaceX is rapidly expanding
29:36
production, but this would be an unprecedented manufacturing
29:39
feat. They're constructing additional
29:41
launchpad when a Kennedy Space Center pad 39A in addition to
29:45
the star pad star based pad 2IN Texas to support higher launch
29:50
frequency. Now.
29:51
Even so, the fall 2026 window might conflict directly with
29:55
Artemis preparations. For instance, if Artemis 3 slips
29:59
to mid 2027, the uncrewed HLS demo might take place in late
30:03
2026. That's the same time the Mars
30:06
window opens. Might be unwise to attempt both
30:09
simultaneously as a major failure in one could impact the
30:14
other. So if Elon is sending Mars tests
30:18
to Earth orbit and something happens, they'll slow down the
30:22
whole program and the Artemis program.
30:26
And everybody at NASA and all of their partners would be slowed
30:30
down because they're trying to do the Mars program instead of
30:32
focusing on the Artemis program. And an explosion on the pad
30:35
during a Mars launch attempt could knock a launch site out of
30:38
Commission and delay the whole HLS launch.
30:43
NASA and SpaceX will have to coordinate carefully to avoid
30:46
this from happening. Now there's a strategic aspect
30:49
too. NASA views the Artemis program
30:54
as a stepping stone to Mars, The plans to leverage lunar
30:58
experience for a human Mars mission in the twenty 30s.
31:02
Musk is easier to push directly to Mars sooner.
31:05
But as a contractor, SpaceX cannot jeopardize the Artemis
31:09
program. They have a huge amount of money
31:12
coming in from NASA. They cannot ruin the goodwill of
31:16
NASA and the taxpayers. Now I expect that if Starship is
31:22
not completely ready by late 2026, SpaceX will scrub or defer
31:27
the Mars mission and concentrate on getting Starship working for
31:30
the Moon mission first. Good news is that most of the
31:32
technologies needed for Artemis orbital refueling, long duration
31:36
life support for the crew, Starships reliability are the
31:40
same ones needed for Mars. So when they build the Artemis
31:43
rocket, it'll be very close to what they'll need for Mars.
31:48
So progress towards 1 is progress towards the other.
31:50
The difference is in mission profile.
31:52
The Mars mission requires surviving an atmospheric re
31:55
entry and a long cruise for months, whereas the lunar
31:58
mission requires a different landing approach, no atmosphere
32:01
on the moon, and the capability to launch back off the moon.
32:05
But both demand refueling in a fully functional Starship.
32:10
Now. The forecasts say 5050 chance
32:16
for Starship to make it to Mars 2026.
32:21
By 20252026, we'll know if Starship can soar or if more
32:26
work is needed here on Earth for Starship to fly.
32:30
Artemis and Mars are both on the horizon.
32:32
And SpaceX finds itself at the Nexus of humanity's multi world
32:38
future. Now Elon has said before
32:42
progress is measured by the timeline to establishing a
32:45
self-sustaining civilization on Mars, and whether it happens at
32:50
26 or a bit later, SpaceX is aggressively pushing towards it.
32:56
Now, will SpaceX have a fiery demise on the surface of Mars,
33:03
or will they continue pushing through and just wait a little
33:06
bit longer until their Starships are completely ready for this
33:13
amazing mission? Hey, thank you so much for
33:16
listening today. I really do appreciate your
33:18
support. If you could take a second and
33:20
hit this subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
33:23
platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly
33:26
appreciate it. It helps out the show
33:27
tremendously and you'll never miss an episode.
33:30
And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you
33:34
caught up quickly. And please, if you want to
33:36
support the show even more, go to Atreoncom Stage Zero.
33:42
And please take care of yourselves and each other.
33:44
And I'll see you tomorrow.