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Americans are eating cheaper. What does that mean for the economy? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: Zada and Mark Fandetti.
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Speaker 2: Chuck Mark and Tucker with you, and markets are up modestly,
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Speaker 2: giving up some of their gains from earlier in the day.
1:18
Speaker 2: As we continue through the morning, the Dow Jones Industrial
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Speaker 2: Average is up eighty five points about a quarter percent,
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Speaker 2: S and P is up fifteen points about a quarter percent,
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Speaker 2: and the NASDAG up ninety five points about half a percent.
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Speaker 2: All these only up about a third as much as
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Speaker 2: they were shortly after the open. The S and P
1:37
Speaker 2: has gone for being up about forty points down to
1:39
Speaker 2: you know where it is now, So you still have
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Speaker 2: some positive momentum in stocks today, but questions about you know,
1:46
Speaker 2: is it going to be able to you know, pop
1:48
Speaker 2: to new all time highs again, or you know, we're
1:50
Speaker 2: gonna give some of those gains back here, So we'll
1:53
Speaker 2: see what ends up happening. Ten year treasury yields moving
1:56
Speaker 2: down to touch, with the ten year at four point
1:59
Speaker 2: three percent, down three point four basis points. Oil West
2:03
Speaker 2: Texas Intermediate off three cents a barrel to sixty eight
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Speaker 2: point thirty not much real movement there, and gold today
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Speaker 2: is up four dollars announced to thirty three twenty and
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Speaker 2: ninety cents. Quite honestly, this might be the most boring
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Speaker 2: week of the year from a news and earnings perspective.
2:22
Speaker 2: The only thing of any note this week we get
2:26
Speaker 2: weekly jobless claims tomorrow. Other than that, let me know
2:29
Speaker 2: if any of these earnings get you interested today.
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Speaker 3: So tomorrow's Delta, right tomorrow is Delta.
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Speaker 2: Which again, it's a twenty nine billion dollar company. Like, yes,
2:40
Speaker 2: like they file a lot of planes and stuff, but
2:42
Speaker 2: as far as like Bell Weather for everything, Yes, thirty
2:45
Speaker 2: seconds today, I'm looking at this. I pull the earnings
2:50
Speaker 2: list from a website called Trading Economics. The only company
2:55
Speaker 2: that is listed as reporting today in the United States
2:59
Speaker 2: has a market cap of two point seven billion dollars
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Speaker 2: and is just called as AZZ. I don't know what
3:08
Speaker 2: they do, I don't know where they're from, but as
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Speaker 2: is reporting today. So there's that.
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Speaker 3: It's a hot dip galvanizer, Hot dip galvanizer. Can I
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Speaker 3: get two metal coatings company?
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Speaker 2: Oh so it's not like a dairy queen situation. No,
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Speaker 2: not not that kind of dip. Okay, gotcha? Anyways, we
3:31
Speaker 2: got a Wall Street Journal exclusive that came out this morning.
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Speaker 2: They're actually late last night at nine pm and the
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Speaker 2: title on it is too Kevin's Battle to be next
3:43
Speaker 2: Fed Chair in Trump's Apprentice style contest. Now, we've actually
3:48
Speaker 2: been able to get some some early footage from this,
3:51
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna have Tucker play it now just so
3:54
Speaker 2: that we can get a little bit of an inside
3:55
Speaker 2: look here, what man So obviously that's you know, from
4:15
Speaker 2: Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, But this is what this feels like.
4:18
Speaker 2: It's two Kevin's enter, one Kevin leaves is basically where
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Speaker 2: it seems like we're heading now, Mark, I'm trying to
4:25
Speaker 2: just think about this from a few different perspectives. The
4:33
Speaker 2: first is it would seem to me that when picking
4:38
Speaker 2: a fed chair, one of the first things that you
4:41
Speaker 2: would look for is relevant monetary policy experience. Is that a.
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Speaker 4: Depends on what you're I think not necessarily in economic models.
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Speaker 4: I think it's optimal to pick someone who will behave
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Speaker 4: like a strict is this gonna sound a little technical,
4:55
Speaker 4: but it's it's perfectly understandable. It's plain English. You want
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Speaker 4: a strict inflation and you want someone who targets inflation monomoniacally.
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Speaker 4: I'm phrasing it a little differently than monetary policy economists would,
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Speaker 4: but someone who's concerned mostly about inflation outcomes have been
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Speaker 4: shown to be best. When your head of central bank
5:15
Speaker 4: we call it the FED, ECB is Europe's name for it,
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Speaker 4: Bank of Japan, et cetera. They all mean the same thing.
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Speaker 4: You want someone who is more conservative than your politicians are,
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Speaker 4: and the key example that, of course is Paul Volgar.
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Speaker 2: So we've got the two Kevins, Kevin Hassett, who is
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Speaker 2: the head of the Council of Economic Advisors, and Kevin
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Speaker 2: Warsh who Worsh is not at the FED currently.
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Speaker 1: Is he.
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Speaker 4: I think he's back at Stanford, is he?
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Speaker 2: But previously was at the FED for a number of years.
5:43
Speaker 2: And so just if you're looking at like the qualifications
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Speaker 2: of the two, it would seem that Worsh is eminently
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Speaker 2: more qualified to the PhD.
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Speaker 4: I don't know about Warsh. I like Warsh personally. He's
5:57
Speaker 4: a hard money guy, meaning he puts a lot of
5:59
Speaker 4: weight on keeping inflation low and stable relative to goosing output,
6:04
Speaker 4: which is where central banks get into trouble like our
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Speaker 4: FED did in the nineteen seventies. But Hasset's the more
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Speaker 4: accomplished economist. I don't know if Worsh could read a
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Speaker 4: modern paper in economics candidly. Maybe he can. Maybe I'm
6:17
Speaker 4: being unfair to him. I just don't get how somebody
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Speaker 4: without graduate level training could. Hasset can. He's a he's
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Speaker 4: a respected researcher. He's carrying a lot of water for
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Speaker 4: the guy he works for now. But that's normal.
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Speaker 2: We all do that, everyone everyone.
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Speaker 4: I like what Warsh has said in the past. You
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Speaker 4: didn't ask me my opinion. Hassett is objectively speaking, probably
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Speaker 4: better trained.
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Speaker 2: Interesting I wouldn't. I wouldn't have.
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Speaker 4: I don't think Worsh has a master's or a PhD
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Speaker 4: in econ.
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Speaker 2: He might haven't figured his experience at the FED would
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Speaker 2: be more relevant in this case.
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Speaker 4: I think you have to understand when your PhD staff
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Speaker 4: comes to you with the results of a model, you
6:51
Speaker 4: have to be able to push back and say, let's
6:53
Speaker 4: break open the model and find out why it's telling
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Speaker 4: us what it is. Hasseck can probably, I don't know
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Speaker 4: how long it's been since he did serious work. He
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Speaker 4: could probably do that. I don't know that Warsh can.
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Speaker 4: He might have a problem similar to Powell's, and that
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Speaker 4: you become very dependent on staff.
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Speaker 2: Let's get to kind of because I think Powell's kind
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Speaker 2: of instructive on this in my thinking in that Powell
7:16
Speaker 2: when he was put into his position, he was put
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Speaker 2: there by President Trump during his first term and subsequently
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Speaker 2: was asked to continue on by Joe Biden during the
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Speaker 2: Biden presidency. And so I guess the question that I
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Speaker 2: have is, aside from just wanting to have the title
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Speaker 2: of FED Chair, this seems like a really difficult position
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Speaker 2: to be going into because on one hand, it's very
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Speaker 2: clear that the President wants lower interest rates, but when
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Speaker 2: it comes to the FED actually going and putting lower
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Speaker 2: interest rates into effect and how they make their decisions,
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Speaker 2: it is not simply the decision of one j Powell
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Speaker 2: or Kevin Hasseen or Kevin Warris who does so it's
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Speaker 2: the FED Open Market Committee that decides what to do, yes,
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Speaker 2: And so I guess what I see here is a
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Speaker 2: scenario where whoever is coming in is going to be
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Speaker 2: viewed rightly so as someone who is going to try
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Speaker 2: to lower interest rates because that's what the President is
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Speaker 2: telling them to do. I know that we talk about,
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Speaker 2: you know, FED independence, but it's pretty clear that President
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Speaker 2: Trump wants someone who is going to push for lower rates.
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Speaker 2: And by the way, when you hear both Hassett and
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Speaker 2: wars talk right now, the only thing they talk about
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Speaker 2: is we need to lower interest rates. So they are
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Speaker 2: campaigning for the job right now as we speak.
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Speaker 4: They may believe that there's actually a good case for it,
8:47
Speaker 4: But what sure happens when the facts change and they
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Speaker 4: have to raise interest rates at a time when it's
8:53
Speaker 4: uncomfortable to do so. Every FED chair is faced with that.
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Speaker 2: And I think this is the piece that I think
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Speaker 2: is going to be challenging for who ever ends up
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Speaker 2: in that role, is they're going to be faced with
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Speaker 2: either the other eleven members of that committee coming from
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Speaker 2: a different place than they are potentially, or the President
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Speaker 2: not being happy with them because they're not following through
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Speaker 2: on what they've talked about over the last several months.
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Speaker 4: If you look at the FED chairs since the end
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Speaker 4: of in the modern era, the end of the war,
9:24
Speaker 4: end of World War Two, with the exception of I'm
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Speaker 4: just gonna go Martin, Martin Burns, Miller, Volker, Green, Span, Bernanky,
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Speaker 4: Yellin Powell of the I think I got them all there.
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Speaker 2: Yeah you did, Okay, I thought you were saying with
9:44
Speaker 2: the exception, and I'm looking, I'm sorry, I.
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Speaker 4: Want them how many of those people survived, got out
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Speaker 4: of that job with their reputation burnished, intact, even in
9:54
Speaker 4: green Span got out of it with his rep intact
9:56
Speaker 4: but not unsullied.
9:58
Speaker 2: He's no, green Span deserves more for maybe go ahead.
10:02
Speaker 2: I know, I'm not.
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Speaker 4: I don't even want to get into that, but.
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Speaker 2: We actually can we talk about it a little bit? Sure?
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Speaker 4: Sure, sure, go ahead.
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Speaker 1: Sorry.
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Speaker 2: So there's two things that I think green Span deserves
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Speaker 2: a little bit of blame for. The second one is
10:12
Speaker 2: going to be surprising to people because it happened after
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Speaker 2: his watch. Actually. The first is obviously tech bubble and
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Speaker 2: the subsequent popping and how things were handled there. You
10:20
Speaker 2: could even make the case that wasn't so much a
10:21
Speaker 2: green Span thing, it was more a fiscal thing.
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Speaker 4: Was nobody thought that he should have done more than
10:26
Speaker 4: he did.
10:27
Speaker 2: To be honest, the place that I will go to
10:31
Speaker 2: and this is not a monetary policy thing necessarily, but hey,
10:35
Speaker 2: you're Alan Greenspan. You know you're still you know, the
10:38
Speaker 2: chairman of the Federal Reserve. Buck stops here is kind
10:40
Speaker 2: of my thinking. One of the major reasons for the
10:44
Speaker 2: financial crisis was changing. Was regulation that changed under green
10:49
Speaker 2: Span that required less collateral for highly rated debt that
10:54
Speaker 2: was securitized, and you can basically draw straight line from
10:57
Speaker 2: that to the financial crisis. He should have been more prescient.
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Speaker 4: A lot of people take blame for that, probably I Well,
11:02
Speaker 4: guess what I wanted to say is of all those
11:04
Speaker 4: names that I ticked off, how many came out of
11:06
Speaker 4: there with a better reputation than maybe Janet yellin vulgar vulgar?
11:11
Speaker 4: Certainly Stirling he's the gold standard. But it's Vulgar is
11:15
Speaker 4: Zeus and everybody else is like a three tiered down
11:20
Speaker 4: whatever they call them demons in Greek mythology, Like there's
11:23
Speaker 4: vulgar and then there's everybody else, and it ain't even close. No,
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Speaker 4: It's my point is it's it's a really hard job.
11:29
Speaker 4: You're not not only are never gonna please everybody, you're
11:32
Speaker 4: not even gonna please like most people, some of those.
11:34
Speaker 2: Kind of like being Speaker of the house, like it's
11:36
Speaker 2: the last job you have before you go on the
11:38
Speaker 2: speaking circuit. Yeah right, you know, it's the lifetime achievement award,
11:42
Speaker 2: and it's you're just not going to be liked by everyone,
11:47
Speaker 2: because like that's it's your batman. You either die the
11:51
Speaker 2: hero or live long enough for you know, people to
11:53
Speaker 2: turn you into the Villain's kind of how it is, right.
11:56
Speaker 4: That's like, I haven't thought about central banking that way.
11:59
Speaker 2: That's kind of how it is. The head of the
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Speaker 2: Fed is batman.
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Speaker 4: I mean, you're you're always making decisions in the midst
12:05
Speaker 4: of a fog of noisy data. You're you're gonna get
12:09
Speaker 4: nearly half of them wrong.
12:11
Speaker 2: Well, and no matter what decision you make, you get criticized.
12:14
Speaker 2: When interest rates were heard, all you heard during the
12:17
Speaker 2: twenty tens was oh, no one can make any money
12:20
Speaker 2: on their savings, like it's it's hurting seniors. I'm not
12:24
Speaker 2: saying this isn't true. I'm just saying this is what
12:26
Speaker 2: people said. It's like, oh, like you can't earn any
12:28
Speaker 2: interested banks anymore, blah blah blah blah. It's pushing people
12:30
Speaker 2: out on the risk curve. YadA, YadA. Now all that
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Speaker 2: you hear is, oh, it's so expensive to buy a house.
12:36
Speaker 2: No one can afford real estate. You can't say both
12:41
Speaker 2: of those things all the time, Like you can't just
12:43
Speaker 2: there's no mythical right level for rates where you can
12:47
Speaker 2: earn enough interest and it's cheap enough to buy a house.
12:50
Speaker 2: It's something has to give.
12:51
Speaker 4: Satisfying the dual mandate is hard enough. If we make
12:53
Speaker 4: at a tripart tight mandate where the third part is
12:57
Speaker 4: Trump and not incurring his wrath, it becomes absolutely impossible.
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Speaker 4: They're gonna be getting hit by Elizabeth Warren on the left,
13:05
Speaker 4: who wants rates a lot, by some hard money Republican
13:10
Speaker 4: or somebody like me on the right, sure, who wants
13:12
Speaker 4: them to pursue inflation production more aggressively. And then you're
13:16
Speaker 4: gonna be getting hit by Trump and who knows what
13:18
Speaker 4: it is.
13:18
Speaker 2: And then all of us who are just yelling at
13:20
Speaker 2: a chaotic whatever.
13:23
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, yeah, right.
13:24
Speaker 2: So I gotta say, I really don't think i'd like
13:29
Speaker 2: to be fed chair, So I'm taking myself out of
13:32
Speaker 2: the running.
13:32
Speaker 4: Well, even if you're terrible at it, though you could
13:34
Speaker 4: cash in after your stint.
13:35
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean, you get to get craft for
13:39
Speaker 2: showing up for twenty minutes. It's fine, it's a good deal.
13:42
Speaker 2: But having said that, no, I don't need that. Tucker.
13:46
Speaker 2: You can you can be my emissary to the Fed.
13:49
Speaker 2: You can, you can handle good. I don't pay you
13:52
Speaker 2: anything forget No, you just show up. You get steaks.
13:56
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, We've
13:59
Speaker 2: got right after this.
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15:25
Speaker 2: Got a piece here from market Watch. The headline on
15:29
Speaker 2: is home sellers have gotten tired of cutting prices, so
15:31
Speaker 2: they're yanking their houses off the market. And if you're
15:36
Speaker 2: listening from you know, up in the Northeast where our
15:38
Speaker 2: show is based, this is not really a thing that
15:40
Speaker 2: you see a ton just because inventory in the Northeast
15:44
Speaker 2: and in the Midwest is still well below June of
15:47
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen. So if you're looking comparing this kind of
15:49
Speaker 2: apples to apples like June of twenty five to nineteen,
15:53
Speaker 2: most of the Northeast is still like forty percent below
15:55
Speaker 2: June of nineteen. Levels the Midwest is in a similar boat.
15:59
Speaker 4: Uh.
16:00
Speaker 2: Even as you you know, get out to you know,
16:03
Speaker 2: places like you know, Utah and places like that, you're
16:08
Speaker 2: still in a decent spot in the southern part of
16:12
Speaker 2: the country and now pushing out to much of the
16:14
Speaker 2: West as well. You've got inventory levels that are either
16:18
Speaker 2: at or well in excess of twenty nineteen levels. Florida
16:22
Speaker 2: is an example, currently running twenty eight percent above June
16:24
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen levels, Texas thirty three percent above, Tennessee, thirty
16:28
Speaker 2: percent above, Colorado thirty four percent above, Arizona twenty eight
16:33
Speaker 2: percent above. And so you've got falling prices that sellers
16:36
Speaker 2: are not willing to take, and so they're yanking their
16:38
Speaker 2: properties off the market rather than cut them. You're still
16:42
Speaker 2: seeing a high number of price cuts, but there is
16:45
Speaker 2: all kinds of mess in the housing market in much
16:48
Speaker 2: of the country right now, and so it's something where
16:53
Speaker 2: the data is really pointing to two things that are
16:56
Speaker 2: going to happen. Either you're going to have to see
16:58
Speaker 2: prices fall further or inventory is going to have to
17:01
Speaker 2: be pulled from the market in order to support prices.
17:04
Speaker 2: And you're seeing a combination of those two things right now.
17:07
Speaker 2: But you still have more new inventory coming on, so
17:10
Speaker 2: inventories are growing overall, even as people are pulling listings
17:14
Speaker 2: that have been sitting for months on end. At this point,
17:17
Speaker 2: the housing market is not in a good spot in
17:19
Speaker 2: much of the country right now. Your thoughts, Mark.
17:21
Speaker 4: Ye, how many of these delistings quickly get listed again quickly.
17:26
Speaker 4: This is not they're not following individual people here listings
17:30
Speaker 4: over time. These are just aggregates. So it could be
17:34
Speaker 4: that that a good fraction of the say fifty percent
17:37
Speaker 4: rounding up of the delistings that this article says occurred
17:40
Speaker 4: in May year over year, we're quickly relisted the following month.
17:44
Speaker 4: We don't really know if they're.
17:46
Speaker 2: No, we don't know. And some of this is just
17:47
Speaker 2: like trying to keep a property fresh, where you okay,
17:49
Speaker 2: you pull it for a few months and then you
17:51
Speaker 2: list it again.
17:51
Speaker 4: And you're firing realtor or something and exactly. But what
17:56
Speaker 4: we are seeing is throughout the southeast part of the
17:59
Speaker 4: country there are some real issues including one of the
18:02
Speaker 4: things that's starting to crop up there is, for depending
18:06
Speaker 4: on the market you're in, if you were buying in
18:08
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two in kind of that Austin, Texas area
18:11
Speaker 4: or twenty three in parts of Florida, kind of that
18:14
Speaker 4: Cape Coral area, you're starting to see an increasing number
18:17
Speaker 4: of properties that have negative equity. And this is a
18:20
Speaker 4: problem obviously if you are trying to sell simply because
18:25
Speaker 4: it means you have to pay a bunch of money
18:27
Speaker 4: in order to sell your property then, and so that
18:29
Speaker 4: there are some real issues that are starting to pop
18:32
Speaker 4: up in some of these markets. At this point, it's
18:36
Speaker 4: not going to cause anything close to what we saw
18:40
Speaker 4: in two thousand and eight, Like it's not a housing
18:42
Speaker 4: Cristi issue, because this is not an affordability driven And
18:45
Speaker 4: when I say it's not an affordability driven problem, it's
18:47
Speaker 4: not people who are unable to afford their mortgage payments.
18:50
Speaker 4: Home equity levels in general are very high. Mortgage payments
18:54
Speaker 4: relative to incomes as a whole are pretty manageable. But
18:58
Speaker 4: this is something where the housing market has all kinds
19:02
Speaker 4: of wrenches in its gears right now, and it's going
19:04
Speaker 4: to take quite a bit of work to try to
19:06
Speaker 4: get it, you know, moving again, just because prices for
19:10
Speaker 4: new construction are completely out of whack with where prices
19:14
Speaker 4: are on retail the resale market, and so I just
19:18
Speaker 4: don't know how this squares away easily. It might be
19:21
Speaker 4: a year or two of slog before this thing, you know,
19:24
Speaker 4: gets moving again consistently.
19:27
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we've
19:29
Speaker 2: got the trivia answer and Wall Street.
19:31
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19:44
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19:48
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19:53
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19:57
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19:59
Speaker 3: Market territory today with the new round of terror threats
20:03
Speaker 3: and a deadline delay to August first. In addition, President
20:07
Speaker 3: Trump said he would impose fifty percent tariffs on copper
20:10
Speaker 3: and a levy of up to two hundred percent on
20:12
Speaker 3: pharmaceutical imports over a span of a couple of years.
20:16
Speaker 3: Right now, the Dow is up by a tenth of
20:18
Speaker 3: a percent, or sixty nine points, SMP five hundred up
20:21
Speaker 3: nearly three tenths of one percent, seventeen points higher, NASDAC
20:26
Speaker 3: up over half a percent higher one hundred and thirteen points.
20:29
Speaker 3: Russell two thousand is flat at the moment. Tenure Treasure reeled,
20:32
Speaker 3: pulling back four basis points now at four point three
20:35
Speaker 3: seven percent, and crude oil up about a quarter percent higher,
20:39
Speaker 3: training at sixty eight dollars and fifty one cents A barrel.
20:43
Speaker 3: Breaking news out of social media platform X this morning,
20:47
Speaker 3: where Linda Yakarino announced she is stepping down from her
20:50
Speaker 3: role as CEO after two years. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg,
20:55
Speaker 3: Meta purchased a minority Steak and Eyeware giantess Lord Luxade
21:00
Speaker 3: me as the Facebook parent already partners with the company
21:03
Speaker 3: to make ray Band smart glasses. Meta shares are up
21:06
Speaker 3: by about one and a half percent. Separately, Bloomberg also
21:10
Speaker 3: reporting that energy company AES was exploring a potential sale
21:14
Speaker 3: amid interest from infrastructure investors, that stock jumping over sixteen
21:19
Speaker 3: percent higher. Elsewhere, several reports say Starbucks has drawn bids
21:23
Speaker 3: for a stake in its China business. CNBC said bids
21:27
Speaker 3: valued Starbucks China at up to ten billion dollars. Starbucks
21:32
Speaker 3: now dipping after trading higher in earlier trade and earlier
21:36
Speaker 3: this morning, chip in Ai Giant Nvidia became the first
21:39
Speaker 3: company to hit four trillion dollars in market cap, with
21:43
Speaker 3: its stock up over two percent today. I'm Tucker Silva
21:47
Speaker 3: and that is Wall Street Watch and the trivia question
21:49
Speaker 3: we asked in the previous segment, what was the name
21:53
Speaker 3: of the local Philadelphia TV show hosted by Dick Clark
21:57
Speaker 3: that would be Bandstand. One year after Clark took over
22:00
Speaker 3: hosting duties of Bandstand, the show was picked up by
22:04
Speaker 3: ABC to be aired nationally and the name was changed
22:08
Speaker 3: to American Bandstand. Tom from the gun Quit Main is
22:11
Speaker 3: our winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange Show t shirt.
22:14
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22:17
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22:21
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22:23
Speaker 2: We got a piece here from Barons. It's titled Americans
22:27
Speaker 2: are eating cheaper. What that means for the economy? What
22:32
Speaker 2: does it mean?
22:33
Speaker 1: Mark?
22:34
Speaker 4: I don't know exactly. There's a bunch of anecdotes here
22:36
Speaker 4: about people spending less, particularly on high end restaurants, and
22:39
Speaker 4: that may bode ill for spending overall, which is sort
22:44
Speaker 4: of a common sense deduction. I guess people are shifting
22:47
Speaker 4: toward cheaper ways to get the nutrients that they need.
22:51
Speaker 4: Is a very I guess, cold and clinical way of
22:53
Speaker 4: looking at it. Sure, Uh should we buy that? I
22:57
Speaker 4: don't know. I'm looking at as anybody can do it
23:00
Speaker 4: is Google personal consumption expenditures and food category specifically, and
23:05
Speaker 4: the Saint Louis Fed's charting tool comes up and you
23:09
Speaker 4: can manipulate it and you'll see there that spending on
23:13
Speaker 4: food is actually increased, it's leveled off lately, but been
23:17
Speaker 4: increasing steadily year over years since twenty twenty four. I'm
23:20
Speaker 4: not getting into how people buy their food, and it
23:23
Speaker 4: might there be something to buying less of it at
23:25
Speaker 4: high end restaurants. Maybe maybe they're just sick of it
23:28
Speaker 4: paying a lot and tipping a lot and they want
23:31
Speaker 4: to eat at home more. I really don't know, but
23:32
Speaker 4: I see nothing in the trend growth rate of spending
23:38
Speaker 4: on food over the past few years to suggest that
23:41
Speaker 4: that's changed again. How they spend that might be different.
23:46
Speaker 2: It seems like. And this is just talking about what
23:49
Speaker 2: we're seeing from publicly traded companies in the restaurant space
23:52
Speaker 2: and in the grocery space. We can talk about kind
23:54
Speaker 2: of what they're telling us. There's definitely a volume issue
23:58
Speaker 2: at a lot of publicly traded restaurants. We're seeing declining sales,
24:03
Speaker 2: declining traffic. Whether you're looking, you know, McDonald's, Wendy's, Chipotle,
24:08
Speaker 2: I think had something Tucker who was the one that
24:10
Speaker 2: was up like thirty one percent? It wasn't Applebee's, but
24:12
Speaker 2: it was, uh Chili's, Chili's who is you know? Apparently
24:16
Speaker 2: people are finding great value at Chili's, I guess because
24:19
Speaker 2: their sales are through the roof, but there's a lot
24:21
Speaker 2: of there are a lot of people in that space
24:23
Speaker 2: that are saying, yeah, there's some problems that we're not
24:26
Speaker 2: seeing the traffic coming through the way that we used
24:29
Speaker 2: to in the speculation is Okay, people are you know,
24:32
Speaker 2: trading down or you know, eating more meals at home.
24:36
Speaker 2: Maybe like that that could be something that's happening. But
24:41
Speaker 2: I guess in terms of like does this mean anything
24:44
Speaker 2: for the US economy, it means something if that spending
24:48
Speaker 2: is not being replaced elsewhere. So we've we've also talked
24:51
Speaker 2: about how we're seeing not just anecdotes but data stories,
24:56
Speaker 2: Like you go through just about anything that airline bookings
24:59
Speaker 2: and hotel booking are down, and not just you know, hotel,
25:01
Speaker 2: but airbnb as well. Like you're seeing this across the board.
25:04
Speaker 2: There's less expensive travel that's happening, and less distant travel
25:08
Speaker 2: that's happening. Okay, that could be bad for the US economy,
25:12
Speaker 2: but maybe it's because people are buying a whole bunch
25:16
Speaker 2: of other stuff and the spending is just shifting around
25:18
Speaker 2: and moving to a different place.
25:19
Speaker 1: Yeah. Maybe.
25:21
Speaker 2: So I don't think you can necessarily draw anything good
25:23
Speaker 2: or bad or ugly from it. It's just something that's
25:27
Speaker 2: happening right now, and we don't really know anymore. And
25:31
Speaker 2: if we, you know, had a dime for every time
25:33
Speaker 2: we predicted recession because of one bad thing happening that
25:36
Speaker 2: didn't turn out to be a recession, you and I
25:38
Speaker 2: would no longer be working. We would be counting our dimes,
25:42
Speaker 2: all billions of them.
25:45
Speaker 4: One thing that came out of this not related really
25:47
Speaker 4: to the article, which I didn't find that helpful, But
25:49
Speaker 4: these people have to crank out stuff every day, so
25:52
Speaker 4: they reach much like we do, for stuff to sort
25:55
Speaker 4: of fill their required content space with Spending on food
25:59
Speaker 4: is a percentage of overall spending. In the nineteen fifties,
26:03
Speaker 4: we spent on average twenty cents of every dollar of
26:06
Speaker 4: overall spending. Now on food, that number has been about
26:11
Speaker 4: seven percent. It leveled off at seven percent about twenty
26:14
Speaker 4: years ago, and that's where it is sitting.
26:16
Speaker 2: Tacked up a little bit like twenty one and twenty two.
26:18
Speaker 2: And I think that's what made people a little bit
26:20
Speaker 2: upset back then.
26:21
Speaker 4: Yeah, yes, yes, you're absolutely right, it did, and since
26:25
Speaker 4: has receded back to it's what appears to be stable
26:29
Speaker 4: for until the structure of the economy changes, people's preferences change,
26:32
Speaker 4: stuff like that what appears to be a relatively stable
26:35
Speaker 4: level in the mid high single digits. I had no
26:38
Speaker 4: idea that that was the case. That one out of
26:40
Speaker 4: every five dollars we spent in the nineteen fifties was
26:42
Speaker 4: on food, and it's now less than half that amount.
26:45
Speaker 2: I believe economists would call that an increase in the
26:47
Speaker 2: standard of living.
26:48
Speaker 4: They call it an increase in your real income.
26:50
Speaker 1: Yeah.
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27:50
Speaker 2: Why carmakers need to bring back buttons. This is a
27:52
Speaker 2: piece from the Financial Times, and in the aftermath of
27:57
Speaker 2: the release of the Tesla Model three, seven or eight
27:59
Speaker 2: years ago, you saw car companies around the world just
28:02
Speaker 2: go nuts, being like, oh, all we need are touch screens.
28:05
Speaker 2: We can get rid of all the buttons. And it
28:07
Speaker 2: turns out that cars without buttons, people don't really like
28:10
Speaker 2: them because when you're driving the button lets you have
28:13
Speaker 2: that tactile sensation of oh, I'm turning the air conditioning
28:15
Speaker 2: knob three clicks this way, or I push the you
28:19
Speaker 2: know this button here you can feel without looking. With
28:24
Speaker 2: the touch screen, you have to look at Unfortunately, when
28:26
Speaker 2: you're looking at the screen instead of at the road,
28:27
Speaker 2: it often causes accidents. So it's kind of a safety
28:30
Speaker 2: problem in addition to just being really frustrating when you
28:32
Speaker 2: think you're turning up the AC and instead volume on
28:34
Speaker 2: your car goes through the roof. So you've got automakers
28:37
Speaker 2: that are now starting to bring back buttons. In quite honestly,
28:41
Speaker 2: I think that the optimal thing, as it often is,
28:43
Speaker 2: is going to be some nice, little convenient marriage of
28:46
Speaker 2: some touchscreens and some buttons. Because there are some things
28:49
Speaker 2: where you don't necessarily need a button because you're not
28:51
Speaker 2: using it that often that frequently and it's not that
28:54
Speaker 2: important to operation where you can have it on a touchscreen.
28:57
Speaker 2: There's other stuff that you're touching more often and you
28:59
Speaker 2: want a but for that, And so, like most things,
29:02
Speaker 2: it's neither of the extremes. It's somewhere in the middle.
29:05
Speaker 2: That's probably the right decision to me.
29:07
Speaker 4: Reminiscent of the BlackBerry versus iPhone keyboard debate. I prefer
29:11
Speaker 4: the tactile keyboard. I still look for them. I'm convinced
29:13
Speaker 4: somebody's going to start offering them again.
29:15
Speaker 2: I do wish someone would.
29:17
Speaker 4: You can buy a BlackBerry. They just don't support the
29:19
Speaker 4: operating system, so you could take that. Oh I'm sorry.
29:23
Speaker 4: So they won't get updated, the software won't get updated.
29:25
Speaker 3: They still exist, they're not making them anymore.
29:28
Speaker 4: But if you I learned this just by going on Amazon,
29:30
Speaker 4: like any idiot, I guess could, you could buy them.
29:33
Speaker 2: But they're not supported like the old ones from like
29:34
Speaker 2: two thousand and eight.
29:35
Speaker 4: No, no, no, they were updating them through only a few
29:38
Speaker 4: years ago.
29:39
Speaker 2: Didn't know that. Neither did I.
29:41
Speaker 4: But you'd be crazy to buy it because it doesn't
29:43
Speaker 4: nobody is supporting it.
29:45
Speaker 2: Does it matter if no one's supporting it, because I
29:47
Speaker 2: bet no one's trying to hack it either, like no
29:49
Speaker 2: one even knows they exist.
29:50
Speaker 4: But apps are getting more sophisticated in demanding you're not
29:53
Speaker 4: going to be able to keep up with them, and
29:54
Speaker 4: maybe making a several hundred dollars investment on something that
29:56
Speaker 4: could be incompatible with the latest version of whatever app
29:59
Speaker 4: you use is not a good idea. That's the conclusion
30:03
Speaker 4: I came to interesting the other thing about cars buttons.
30:06
Speaker 4: It sounds like it should be cheaper to use the
30:08
Speaker 4: touch screen, but it's not right to replace a touch screen.
30:12
Speaker 4: You gotta replace the whole thing to replace a button,
30:14
Speaker 4: like any tech can. I was gonna say, any idiot
30:17
Speaker 4: again to use myself as an example, could probably do
30:20
Speaker 4: with the right tool. So there's it seems to me
30:23
Speaker 4: they're more robust the old the old way a dial
30:26
Speaker 4: a button is opposed to swapping out a big TV in.
30:28
Speaker 2: You're I'll go further. I mean again, I haven't driven
30:32
Speaker 2: cars forever, you know, it's been thirty years or so.
30:37
Speaker 2: I don't think I've ever had to replace a button
30:39
Speaker 2: in a car. No, have you ever had a button
30:43
Speaker 2: brand from like, you know?
30:46
Speaker 3: Not?
30:46
Speaker 4: How hard you?
30:47
Speaker 2: What button? Do you? I'm volume baby, this one.
30:51
Speaker 4: Goes to twelve right. Yeah, I've had it happen a
30:55
Speaker 4: few times and Eddy away punch it. Yeah, I've had
31:00
Speaker 4: it happened a few times. I'm probably just a frantic
31:02
Speaker 4: button pusher where I don't get the result.
31:04
Speaker 2: I did crack a screen in my old car, which
31:07
Speaker 2: and that's pricey. I never replaced it, but I couldn't
31:12
Speaker 2: use half the stuff in the car. Then for the
31:14
Speaker 2: last like three years, I have this thing where when
31:17
Speaker 2: I get into the car in the morning, I don't
31:19
Speaker 2: do it anymore specifically because of this. I put my
31:22
Speaker 2: work bag in the back left seat on the floor,
31:25
Speaker 2: and then I would take my water bottle and I
31:27
Speaker 2: would toss it to the front right seat. It took
31:30
Speaker 2: an unfortunate bounce and bounced into like the center console
31:34
Speaker 2: and just right into the screen. That's a good start
31:37
Speaker 2: in the morning, and took out the screen. So I
31:40
Speaker 2: don't do that anymore because of that.
31:42
Speaker 3: I gotta tell you. I know we're gotta go break.
31:44
Speaker 4: But on top of the top when you want to
31:46
Speaker 4: say something.
31:47
Speaker 3: At top of the touch screen stuff, have you guys
31:49
Speaker 3: seen these like mousepad center console freaking worst. I borrowed
31:54
Speaker 3: a car on Sunday.
31:55
Speaker 2: I don't want to have to move a finger on
31:56
Speaker 2: a pad in order to do something.
31:59
Speaker 3: And it was an Accura and there's like a mousepad
32:03
Speaker 3: cursor thing in the middle that's touchscreen itself. And I'm
32:06
Speaker 3: trying to, you know, put on the AC to the
32:10
Speaker 3: the screen in front of me, and meanwhile, I'm going
32:13
Speaker 3: forty miles an hour. I'm like, what the heck?
32:15
Speaker 2: The people who designed these cars the terrible are horrible
32:18
Speaker 2: at their job.
32:19
Speaker 4: Guys, you got experiment with technology, not six touchscreen technology
32:25
Speaker 4: and cars is not new. I remember variations on this
32:29
Speaker 4: you didn't work out though.
32:31
Speaker 3: Have you done the mousepad thing?
32:33
Speaker 2: Mark? No? Oh?
32:34
Speaker 3: Oh, it's it's so much worse than a touchscreen.
32:37
Speaker 4: They did let you borrow their car, Tucker did you.
32:40
Speaker 2: They won't again, not after Tucker did do it?
32:44
Speaker 3: Tell about it, but you know it was.
32:46
Speaker 2: It was close.
32:46
Speaker 4: It's new. It's new. You'll get used to it.
32:49
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we come back,
32:52
Speaker 2: we'll do a little bit of stack.
32:53
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33:30
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34:02
Speaker 2: All Right, I just got a notification from CMBC that
34:07
Speaker 2: the President has posted new trade letters today six countries,
34:11
Speaker 2: the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, and Libya. So I
34:17
Speaker 2: decided to go through and you know, see what the
34:22
Speaker 2: deal is in terms of, hey, how much does the
34:25
Speaker 2: United States actually import from the Philippines And the answer
34:30
Speaker 2: is we brought in fourteen billion dollars of goods from
34:32
Speaker 2: the Philippines last year, so not a ton. You know,
34:37
Speaker 2: that probably makes the Philippines like a top thirty trading partner,
34:40
Speaker 2: but like our biggest five or six we import, you know,
34:43
Speaker 2: hundreds of billion from so not not that much the
34:46
Speaker 2: other countries on this list. Okay, just if you're wondering,
34:50
Speaker 2: like why this isn't impacting markets at all, Mark, do
34:52
Speaker 2: you know how much we import from Brunei in care
34:56
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty eight million dollars, which is nothing.
35:00
Speaker 2: That's like one minute of revenue for Amazon or something
35:03
Speaker 2: like that. Do you know how much we import from Moldova. Well,
35:07
Speaker 2: you told me during the even less one hundred and
35:09
Speaker 2: forty two million dollars. What about Algeria? How much? What
35:12
Speaker 2: are Algerian imports actually kind of high? Two point five billion.
35:15
Speaker 2: I bet it's a lot of energy stuff like that,
35:17
Speaker 2: you know it related things along those lines. Camels, yeah, uh,
35:22
Speaker 2: camels are not energy.
35:24
Speaker 4: Now I was in addition to oh got it, got
35:26
Speaker 4: it in a way. They Iraq about seven away. They
35:29
Speaker 4: do provide energy, broke, excuse me, work uh?
35:33
Speaker 2: Iraq seven billion dollars again mostly energy one would expect.
35:36
Speaker 4: Boy, they can't catch your break.
35:37
Speaker 2: And Libya one point four billion dollars. So the total
35:41
Speaker 2: imports from all these countries are less than ten billion dollars.
35:44
Speaker 4: I think we cut a rack of break after turning
35:47
Speaker 4: their society upside down for twenty years. Now you get
35:50
Speaker 4: tariffed in any good luck with that.
35:53
Speaker 2: This stuff does not matter the stuff that matters. What
35:58
Speaker 2: are tariffs going to be on China, Japan, South Korea,
36:02
Speaker 2: the EU, India, the countries that we actually import a
36:06
Speaker 2: lot of stuff from. You can impose one hundred percent
36:08
Speaker 2: tariffs on Cyprus. It doesn't matter because we import sixty
36:11
Speaker 2: million dollars of stuff a year from them, and it's
36:14
Speaker 2: not going to impact us in any meaningful way. You
36:18
Speaker 2: do that on Germany, there's a very different reaction in markets.
36:23
Speaker 2: But this stuff just doesn't matter because these are not
36:27
Speaker 2: countries with which we have significant amounts of trade on
36:30
Speaker 2: any you know, meaningful level.
36:33
Speaker 4: Doesn't seem like a good use of anybody's time either.
36:35
Speaker 4: The back of the inevitable back and forth with the Moldovans.
36:39
Speaker 2: All right, Moldova is nice this time of year.
36:43
Speaker 4: That would be an even bigger waste of resources if
36:45
Speaker 4: somebody actually flew there.
36:48
Speaker 2: It could be nice. It's all I'm saying. Fed goes
36:50
Speaker 2: to Jackson Hole every year. Why not make a Moldova.
36:52
Speaker 2: What do you got for me? Mark?
36:54
Speaker 4: Did you know the FTC had adopted a rule last
36:56
Speaker 4: year to make it easier to cancel subscriptions? It can
36:59
Speaker 4: be infurial cancel.
37:00
Speaker 2: You had to be able to cancel the same way that.
37:02
Speaker 4: As easy, with the same ease, right, and we all
37:05
Speaker 4: know that it's very asymmetric, very hard to even cancel
37:08
Speaker 4: a subscribe and save. You have to drill down five levels.
37:11
Speaker 4: And yeah, unfortunately, a court, appellate court, federal Appeals Court
37:15
Speaker 4: suspended implementation of the rule because the required cost benefit
37:20
Speaker 4: analysis was not performed. So if you were looking forward
37:23
Speaker 4: to that, like I was making it easier to cancel
37:26
Speaker 4: things not apparently going to happen. It's not to say
37:29
Speaker 4: it won't, but apparently there were some procedural steps.
37:32
Speaker 2: Couldn't the court just be like, you know what, you
37:34
Speaker 2: didn't follow the right procedures. But everyone hates the way
37:37
Speaker 2: this works right now, so we're just gonna let it slide, right,
37:40
Speaker 2: I mean, I understand why, from you know, a rule
37:42
Speaker 2: of law perspective, you wouldn't want to do that.
37:44
Speaker 4: Well, the irony is it's it's hard to cancel cancel
37:48
Speaker 4: hard cancelations exactly. Didn't there some irony there right?
37:52
Speaker 2: Like you we're having trouble canceling the cancelations.
37:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, and a court just made it doub a triple
37:58
Speaker 4: or whatever hard. Yeah, you have to file in this irony. Yeah,
38:02
Speaker 4: please bring your original signed docket to the court as
38:06
Speaker 4: you can't do this remotely. So normally we don't like
38:08
Speaker 4: going to risk government regulations. We're free market people here,
38:11
Speaker 4: I think for the most partly speaking for myself.
38:13
Speaker 2: But anyways, as we finish up here, markets remain slightly positive.
38:17
Speaker 2: We're done for the day back at tomorrow. We got
38:19
Speaker 2: jobless claims coming up then