Latest / The Bear Market Podcast with Fexingo: Surviving Downturns, Buying the Dip, and Long-Term Resilience
Why the VIX Volatility Smile Is Smirking at You
Episode 30 of The Bear Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna unpick the VIX volatility smile — why options traders are pricing in tail risk even as the VIX sits at 16. They explain what a steep smile means for hedging, portfolio construction, and the disconnect between calm index levels and nervous derivative markets. With the VIX at 16.06 and the VVIX at 89.80, Lucas draws on real options data to show how out-of-the-money put skew is pricing in a 20% chance of a 10% drop by September. Luna challenges whether the smile is just a structural artifact of ETF hedging. They finish with practical…
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