Latest / Q & A, Hosted by Jay Nordlinger / An Unnerving World, Surveyed

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An Unnerving World, Surveyed · Q & A, Hosted by Jay Nordlinger

0:00
SPEAKER_02: Hello everyone and welcome to Q&A.
0:02
SPEAKER_02: I'm Jay Nordlinger and our guest today is Aaron Friedberg,
0:07
SPEAKER_02: Professor Aaron L.
0:08
SPEAKER_02: Friedberg of Princeton.
0:10
SPEAKER_02: Professor of what?
0:12
SPEAKER_02: Of politics and international affairs.
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SPEAKER_02: He's the author of several books including The Weary Titan,
0:21
SPEAKER_02: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline,
0:23
SPEAKER_02: 1895 to 1905.
0:24
SPEAKER_02: Another of his books is
0:29
a contest for supremacy,
0:31
China,
0:32
America,
0:33
and the struggle for mastery in Asia.
0:37
SPEAKER_02: Mr.
0:37
SPEAKER_02: Friedberg has had a stint or two in government,
0:40
SPEAKER_02: including two years in the office of Vice President Dick Cheney.
0:45
Last Friday,
0:46
a day-long event was held at Princeton,
0:49
the Aaron Friedberg Retirement Colloquium.
0:53
SPEAKER_02: It included an array of colleagues and former students.
0:57
SPEAKER_02: So Professor Friedberg is closing one chapter and beginning another.
1:02
SPEAKER_02: And it's a pleasure to have him on this program.
1:05
SPEAKER_02: Well, good afternoon.
1:07
SPEAKER_02: It's nice to see you.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: Good to see you.
1:10
SPEAKER_02: How was that event, that colloquium?
1:13
SPEAKER_02: Must have been a little strange,
1:14
SPEAKER_02: I would think,
1:15
SPEAKER_02: for you to...
1:15
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
1:17
SPEAKER_02: was it like a...
1:17
SPEAKER_02: What was it like?
1:20
SPEAKER_00: Well, it was actually a lot nicer than I had expected.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: Not that I thought it wasn't going to be nice,
1:25
SPEAKER_00: but it was very memorable,
1:30
SPEAKER_00: had kind of a powerful effect on me.
1:32
SPEAKER_00: I guess the thing that struck me most was just...
1:36
SPEAKER_00: seeing these many people,
1:39
SPEAKER_00: colleagues,
1:40
SPEAKER_00: academic colleagues,
1:41
SPEAKER_00: people I knew in Washington,
1:43
SPEAKER_00: students,
1:44
SPEAKER_00: current students,
1:45
SPEAKER_00: former students,
1:48
SPEAKER_00: reminded me of the importance of those
1:51
SPEAKER_00: personal connections,
1:53
SPEAKER_00: which if you do this long enough,
1:54
you kind of accumulate over time and sometimes you lose track
1:58
of how many there
1:59
SPEAKER_00: actually are.
2:00
But it was very moving for me and meaningful to see these
2:06
people and think about
2:07
all that they've done and to hear them talk about their
2:11
experiences here and what
2:15
impact I may have had on the development of their thinking and
2:19
their careers.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: And as I
2:21
SPEAKER_00: think about it,
2:22
SPEAKER_00: I realize in the long run,
2:24
SPEAKER_00: that's really what's most important to another article here or there,
2:27
SPEAKER_00: a book,
2:27
SPEAKER_00: whatever.
2:29
But the students and the people you work with,
2:32
that really is what matters most.
2:35
SPEAKER_02: You must have a large alumni association,
2:38
SPEAKER_02: like a federal judge who's been on the bench for a long time.
2:41
SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of clerks, former clerks.
2:44
SPEAKER_02: It must be so gratifying.
2:47
SPEAKER_00: It is.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: And I told them,
2:50
SPEAKER_00: I realized as I was thinking about what I should say,
2:53
SPEAKER_00: that they all were,
2:55
SPEAKER_00: to one degree or another,
2:56
SPEAKER_00: kind of misfits,
2:57
by which I meant that they didn't fit into the sort of existing
3:02
community.
3:03
SPEAKER_00: framework of political science,
3:06
SPEAKER_00: either for methodological reasons,
3:08
SPEAKER_00: in some cases for ideological reasons,
3:10
SPEAKER_00: in some cases both.
3:12
And so I thought my role was to encourage them to pursue the
3:16
things that they that
3:17
were interesting to them and also to do it in the ways that
3:20
made sense to them.
3:22
I didn't set out sort of self-consciously to to have that as my
3:28
philosophy,
3:28
SPEAKER_00: but I guess that's what it turned out to be in time.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: And
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to hear these folks and see what they've done and hear them
3:34
talk i realized well
3:35
that that was the right way to go well i wish i'd been in your
3:40
classes but i'm glad
3:41
we're talking now um so you're a professor of politics that's
3:45
what they call it at
3:46
princeton other places it's political science other places it's
3:51
government do you
3:52
SPEAKER_00: have a preference well uh i was very glad
3:57
SPEAKER_00: Not to join a department of political science when I got the job here,
4:02
because I've never really believed that the study of politics
4:05
could be made
4:07
SPEAKER_00: scientific,
4:08
or at least that the most important questions didn't lend
4:10
themselves to sort of
4:11
SPEAKER_00: scientific methods.
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SPEAKER_00: And I think over the course of my career,
4:15
SPEAKER_00: and of course,
4:16
SPEAKER_00: it goes back earlier than that,
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SPEAKER_00: there's been a trend in American politics.
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SPEAKER_00: academic life towards an attempt to make politics a science.
4:27
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think it's led to much that's useful or very interesting.
4:31
I was an undergraduate and a graduate student at Harvard where
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they called it government.
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SPEAKER_00: So I have a kind of an affection for that.
4:37
SPEAKER_00: But politics is okay with me.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: I was happy to be in a department of politics.
4:43
SPEAKER_02: Let's stick with the subject of nomenclature for a minute.
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SPEAKER_02: The Woodrow Wilson School,
4:48
SPEAKER_02: the School of International Affairs at Princeton,
4:52
SPEAKER_02: the name of Wilson was removed.
4:55
SPEAKER_02: Did you agree or disagree with that move, that erasure?
4:59
SPEAKER_00: Well, I never had much affection for Woodrow Wilson.
5:03
SPEAKER_00: Going back a long way,
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and I used to make a point in my lectures of pointing out the
5:09
errors of some of the
5:10
SPEAKER_00: things that he did,
5:12
although I didn't because I was teaching courses on
5:14
international relations.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: I didn't talk much about his racism and anti-Semitism and so on.
5:19
SPEAKER_00: But I never had much affection for Wilson, so it didn't bother me.
5:23
We now have kind of a bland,
5:26
generic school of public and international affairs.
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I don't know if they're going to sell the naming rights and
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call this a school
5:35
SPEAKER_00: after someone,
5:36
SPEAKER_00: but we've had this title for at least five years.
5:39
SPEAKER_00: It's probably going to stay that way.
5:41
SPEAKER_02: Aaron, in your view, was Wilson a good commander-in-chief in the war?
5:47
SPEAKER_00: I never quite thought about it in that way.
5:51
SPEAKER_00: I guess...
5:54
SPEAKER_00: Yes,
5:54
SPEAKER_00: he in the sense that he,
5:57
SPEAKER_00: despite his inclinations and I suppose his best efforts,
6:01
SPEAKER_00: brought the United States into the First World War,
6:04
which I think was was necessary and conducted it in a way that
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helped bring it to a
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SPEAKER_00: successful conclusion.
6:11
I think his efforts at the end of the war to transform the
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character of the
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SPEAKER_00: international system were
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SPEAKER_00: if not misguided, then certainly very premature.
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SPEAKER_00: And the fact that he set this very high bar,
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SPEAKER_00: really,
6:30
SPEAKER_00: I think of him as being the first president in the 20th century.
6:35
I think there were a series of three attempts to sort of remake
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the international
6:39
SPEAKER_00: system along liberal lines.
6:41
SPEAKER_00: And he was the originator of this.
6:46
SPEAKER_00: It was an experiment.
6:47
SPEAKER_00: It was unsuccessful.
6:49
The problem with Wilson was that he was very rigid in his
6:53
efforts to persuade
6:55
SPEAKER_00: others to accept his views.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: And when they failed to do so,
6:59
he oversaw the beginning of a retraction by the United States
7:03
from the world stage
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SPEAKER_00: that ultimately helped to set the stage for a Second World War.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: So he was not successful in that regard.
7:12
SPEAKER_02: Is there any guessing what would have happened if the U.S.
7:16
SPEAKER_02: had joined the League, the League of Nations?
7:18
SPEAKER_02: Or is that just a fool's errand even to guess?
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As with these historical counterfactuals,
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it's obviously always impossible to know.
7:29
I think what probably would have been more helpful and more
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important if in the
7:36
the long run,
7:36
the real danger was the reemergence of aggressive authoritarian
7:40
powers.
7:41
What would have been more helpful was to maintain a closer
7:43
strategic relationship
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SPEAKER_00: with the other allied powers that had helped to defeat Germany.
7:49
And maybe if we had had closer ties in an ongoing way with
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Britain and France and
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SPEAKER_00: some others,
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SPEAKER_00: we could have done more to prevent the outbreak of the Second World War.
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SPEAKER_00: But the fact that we were out of it
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SPEAKER_00: helped set the stage for those catastrophic events.
8:05
SPEAKER_00: And then,
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SPEAKER_00: of course,
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SPEAKER_00: ultimately,
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those events drew us back into Europe and Asia and into a
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Second World War that,
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SPEAKER_00: as Churchill says at the beginning of his five-volume history of the war,
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SPEAKER_00: could have been prevented,
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SPEAKER_00: but wasn't.
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SPEAKER_00: But the U.S.
8:20
SPEAKER_00: would have had to play a key role in that.
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SPEAKER_00: And I know...
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I suspect we're going to talk a little bit about this and kind
8:26
of perhaps getting
8:27
SPEAKER_00: ahead of things,
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SPEAKER_00: but I think we're in danger of repeating that error.
8:31
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah, we will.
8:34
SPEAKER_02: But let's get personal for a few minutes.
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SPEAKER_02: Where did you grow up?
8:39
SPEAKER_02: Where are you from?
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SPEAKER_00: I am a proud son of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
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SPEAKER_00: Grew up there.
8:46
SPEAKER_00: My father was born and raised there and my grandfather also.
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SPEAKER_00: So I think of myself as a
8:52
SPEAKER_00: as a true third-generation Pittsburgher.
8:56
SPEAKER_02: And who are the immigrants in your family?
8:59
SPEAKER_02: Grandparents, great-grandparents, neither?
9:02
SPEAKER_00: All great grandparents and all on both sides came from Lithuania.
9:08
SPEAKER_00: Most of my other relatives,
9:09
SPEAKER_00: both on my mother's side and my father's side,
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SPEAKER_00: settled in Boston for reasons that are kind of lost in the mists of time.
9:19
SPEAKER_00: My grandfather's father came and settled in Pittsburgh.
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SPEAKER_00: And so that's where my family ultimately was located.
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SPEAKER_02: Did the Friedbergs work in steel at all or no?
9:30
SPEAKER_00: No,
9:31
my grandfather or great grandfathers on both sides were
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involved in businesses of
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SPEAKER_00: one kind and another in Boston,
9:40
SPEAKER_00: working in running a drugstore in in Pittsburgh and.
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SPEAKER_00: owning property, real estate.
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SPEAKER_00: So they were very self-made.
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SPEAKER_00: They arrived with little or nothing and had to scratch out an existence.
10:00
SPEAKER_00: But as was true of so many Jewish immigrants of that generation,
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SPEAKER_00: they were determined to see their children get ahead and
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SPEAKER_00: The key to that was getting a good education.
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So both my grandfather and my grandmother on my father's side
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wound up going to the
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SPEAKER_00: Harvard graduate house.
10:22
SPEAKER_00: Unusual in those days.
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SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I should say.
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SPEAKER_00: My great-grandfather on my grandmother's
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father was what's i think pretty unusual in insisting that all
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three of his
10:35
daughters uh go to college so there was a there was a strong
10:38
emphasis on education
10:40
right from the start when you were a kid let's say let's say
10:46
young person youth um
10:49
what did you want to be did you have an ambition or did you
10:52
just want to see where
10:53
SPEAKER_02: life would take you
10:55
SPEAKER_00: Well,
10:55
my father was a physicist and he was a professor of physics
11:00
actually for 40 years
11:01
SPEAKER_00: at what is now Carnegie Mellon University.
11:03
SPEAKER_00: It was Carnegie Institute of Technology when he started there.
11:07
And growing up,
11:08
I think I wanted to be a scientist,
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maybe an astrophysicist.
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SPEAKER_00: I was interested in astronomy.
11:17
SPEAKER_00: So that's what I thought I would do.
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And initially,
11:21
when I went off to college,
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that was what I intended to do.
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SPEAKER_00: I quickly discovered that I wasn't really cut out for that.
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SPEAKER_00: But the things that interested me a great deal,
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SPEAKER_00: and I had spent a lot of my time reading history and thinking about
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about history when i was a kid were actually uh things you
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could pursue in a
11:40
serious way as an adult uh so i was i was very fortunate to
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figure that out early
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on and not pursue a fruitless attempt to be to become a
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physicist i'm gonna ask a a
11:52
blunt question maybe maybe too blunt but i'll tell you why i've
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had a lot of
11:56
SPEAKER_02: experience in these interviews um
11:58
I often ask people who studied history or international
12:01
relations,
12:02
were you Holocaust haunted?
12:04
SPEAKER_02: Often they volunteer it.
12:06
I've had very moving answers from people who say,
12:08
I just had to find some answers.
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SPEAKER_02: Did that play a role in your choices or not at all?
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SPEAKER_00: No, it certainly did.
12:17
And I don't remember exactly when it was that I first became
12:22
aware of the Holocaust.
12:25
It may have been after I became aware of the Second World War,
12:29
but I was pretty young.
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SPEAKER_00: And it did have a powerful impact on me.
12:35
I don't know if I'm imposing in retrospect a kind of order on
12:41
my thinking,
12:43
SPEAKER_00: but it always seemed to me that
12:45
The lesson I took from that was there are evil people and evil
12:52
regimes in the world.
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SPEAKER_00: And if they have enough power, they will do very evil things.
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And that the only way of countering them is for good people and
13:02
good regimes to be
13:04
SPEAKER_00: more powerful.
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SPEAKER_00: So that was a kind of an initial thought that...
13:09
SPEAKER_00: in a way,
13:10
SPEAKER_00: continues to inform my thinking and my work on international relations,
13:15
SPEAKER_00: American foreign policy.
13:18
SPEAKER_02: You're too young to have had Kissinger in school.
13:21
SPEAKER_00: I'm guessing.
13:22
SPEAKER_00: That's right.
13:23
SPEAKER_00: He had left Harvard before I got there.
13:27
SPEAKER_00: And I guess I was 68 when he left.
13:30
SPEAKER_00: I started there in 1974.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: So his imprint was there, but I was never exposed to him as a teacher.
13:36
SPEAKER_02: Guessing you had Sam Huntington, Sam Beer.
13:40
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
13:41
SPEAKER_02: Harry Mansfield?
13:44
SPEAKER_00: Sam Huntington and Stanley Hoffman were my dissertation advisors.
13:49
As an undergraduate,
13:52
and I think this was true of most other Harvard undergraduates,
13:55
I
13:57
SPEAKER_00: The professors didn't really talk much to the undergraduates.
14:00
I mean,
14:00
maybe if I had had the nerve to go to their offices,
14:03
they would have spoken.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: But they were sort of godlike figures.
14:06
And you went to their lectures and listened and wrote down what
14:09
they said.
14:10
But I didn't have much interaction with them until I went back
14:13
to graduate school.
14:14
Another professor who had a powerful impact on me was the late
14:19
Ernest May,
14:20
the historian.
14:21
SPEAKER_02: Ernest Armé, yeah.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: catch a plane or something.
14:53
SPEAKER_00: And I remember he was putting on his coat and walking towards the door,
14:58
SPEAKER_00: even as he was delivering a lecture on the,
15:01
SPEAKER_00: you know,
15:02
SPEAKER_00: the second Balkan crisis or whatever it was.
15:04
And he completed the lecture,
15:07
walked out the door,
15:08
just as the clock in Harvard Yard struck the
15:13
SPEAKER_00: 10, I guess it was.
15:14
SPEAKER_00: So maybe you started at 10 after nine.
15:16
And there was thunderous applause because it was such a
15:18
magnificent performance.
15:20
SPEAKER_02: That's just wonderful.
15:21
SPEAKER_02: Well, when you became a professor, you weren't unapproachable.
15:25
SPEAKER_02: True?
15:27
SPEAKER_00: I like to think not.
15:30
I think maybe Princeton is a place that traditionally has
15:35
placed a good deal of emphasis on
15:37
SPEAKER_00: on teaching and particularly undergraduate instruction.
15:42
SPEAKER_00: And I taught a fair number of undergraduate courses.
15:45
SPEAKER_00: So I don't think I was unapproachable.
15:50
One of the things I've liked about being at Princeton all these
15:52
years is that I
15:54
SPEAKER_00: always had three different types of students.
15:57
SPEAKER_00: I had undergraduates on the one hand,
15:59
SPEAKER_00: PhD students on the other,
16:00
SPEAKER_00: but also in between,
16:02
SPEAKER_00: because we had the now School of Public and International Affairs,
16:06
master's students of varying description who were here for a
16:10
year or two years,
16:12
often were either headed off to careers in government or were
16:15
on leave from
16:16
SPEAKER_00: positions in the government and the military.
16:19
SPEAKER_00: And I liked teaching all those different groups for different reasons,
16:22
SPEAKER_00: but it was a varied experience.
16:25
SPEAKER_00: Gotcha.
16:27
SPEAKER_02: Not long ago on this program, we had Nick Burns,
16:31
SPEAKER_02: are Nicholas Burns, the diplomat.
16:33
SPEAKER_02: And we were talking about,
16:34
SPEAKER_02: for some reason,
16:35
SPEAKER_02: George Marshall came up and he admires Marshall a lot.
16:40
SPEAKER_02: So do I, despite a thing or two.
16:42
SPEAKER_02: And I thought to ask you, who are some of the diplomats you
16:50
SPEAKER_02: especially admire?
16:51
SPEAKER_02: Not necessarily American ones, but who did it right?
16:55
SPEAKER_02: I mean, I know famous names like Talleyrand and Metternich.
17:00
SPEAKER_02: Frankly, I don't know what to think of them.
17:01
SPEAKER_02: I don't know enough about them.
17:04
SPEAKER_02: Do you have... I won't ask you for a pantheon.
17:07
SPEAKER_02: That sounds too gooey.
17:08
Do you have people you think a lot of in the history of
17:13
diplomacy or in the
17:15
SPEAKER_02: practice of international relations,
17:17
SPEAKER_02: let's say?
17:17
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: Well, I...
17:19
SPEAKER_00: I've always been a,
17:20
SPEAKER_00: a Churchill fan,
17:22
SPEAKER_00: uh,
17:23
SPEAKER_00: even though I,
17:24
SPEAKER_00: I recognize some of his faults and failings,
17:27
SPEAKER_00: but he's probably at the,
17:29
SPEAKER_00: at the top of my list as a,
17:31
SPEAKER_00: as a strategist and as a,
17:32
SPEAKER_00: as a leader.
17:33
Um,
17:35
and really,
17:36
I,
17:36
I think he deserves a lot of credit for saving the Western
17:39
world.
17:39
SPEAKER_00: Uh, and for a time he had to do it single-handedly.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: So, and even as a kid, I remember, uh,
17:47
SPEAKER_00: My parents subscribed to National Geographic,
17:49
SPEAKER_00: and I think it must have been when he died,
17:52
SPEAKER_00: which I believe was in 1965.
17:53
SPEAKER_00: There was a special issue of National Geographic,
17:57
SPEAKER_00: and it came with one of those sort of plastic 45 RPM records.
18:03
And you put it on the record player,
18:05
and it had little recordings of his speeches.
18:07
SPEAKER_00: So as a pretty young kid,
18:09
I remember listening to those and being moved by them and
18:12
impressed by them.
18:13
SPEAKER_00: So Churchill was at the top of my list.
18:16
SPEAKER_02: Mm-hmm.
18:18
SPEAKER_02: Did you think,
18:18
SPEAKER_02: Aaron,
18:18
SPEAKER_02: that maybe this was natural and not conscious,
18:23
SPEAKER_02: a conscious decision,
18:24
SPEAKER_02: but did you ever think,
18:25
SPEAKER_02: am I going to spend my life in government or in the academy?
18:31
SPEAKER_02: You might have joined the Foreign Service.
18:34
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
18:37
SPEAKER_02: You came from an academic family.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: Right.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: That had a strong imprint on me.
18:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure it was entirely conscious,
18:45
but it was a part of me that felt like this was a respectable
18:50
way of making a
18:53
SPEAKER_00: living.
18:53
And it gave you independence and you could pursue things that
18:59
interested you.
19:00
SPEAKER_00: I was always interested in government and in politics.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: And I got involved around the periphery of it pretty early on.
19:10
SPEAKER_00: But also,
19:10
SPEAKER_00: I think,
19:11
came to a conclusion fairly early that I wasn't really cut out
19:15
for that kind of
19:17
SPEAKER_00: life.
19:19
SPEAKER_00: And that I prefer to...
19:21
SPEAKER_00: a slower pace, I guess, and more contemplative life.
19:25
Sometimes,
19:25
you know,
19:26
I've thought about that in retrospect,
19:28
but I don't have any regrets.
19:30
I have a lot of respect for people who do it well and who
19:36
combine this kind of
19:38
SPEAKER_00: thoughtful,
19:39
SPEAKER_00: analytical
19:41
quality with the ability to do things in the real world and
19:46
practical world,
19:48
SPEAKER_00: and in particular,
19:48
SPEAKER_00: in government bureaucracy and to get things done.
19:51
And I think in my limited experience in government and around
19:56
the periphery of it,
19:58
SPEAKER_00: there are lots of people who kind of know how the machinery works.
20:02
SPEAKER_00: And there are a few people who have that kind of thoughtful,
20:05
SPEAKER_00: analytical,
20:06
SPEAKER_00: longer view,
20:08
SPEAKER_00: but there are very few people who combine both of those qualities.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: And those are the ones that I've really admired most.
20:16
SPEAKER_02: Did you have any use for ZBIG or no?
20:20
SPEAKER_00: You know, I think at the time I was not greatly enamored of him.
20:27
Maybe I'm not sure exactly why it may have had something to do
20:31
with the way he was
20:32
SPEAKER_00: presented in the press and maybe it had something to do with his
20:36
SPEAKER_00: persona.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: I know that he and I knew at the time,
20:41
SPEAKER_00: although,
20:41
SPEAKER_00: of course,
20:41
SPEAKER_00: didn't know all of it,
20:42
that he was doing a lot of things that I approve of and would
20:48
have approved of at
20:49
SPEAKER_00: the time.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: And in fact,
20:50
I was involved just a little bit around the periphery in the
20:55
years between the time
20:56
SPEAKER_00: that I was in college and in graduate school and working for the U.S.
21:00
SPEAKER_00: government on some things that he was
21:04
SPEAKER_00: he was responsible for.
21:05
So I recently read Ed Luce's biography of Brzezinski,
21:10
which I found very,
21:12
very interesting.
21:13
SPEAKER_00: I knew a few or had observed a few of the characters,
21:19
SPEAKER_00: but it was a very powerful portrayal of Brzezinski.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: And I think a fuller picture of him than many people had
21:27
SPEAKER_00: even long after he had left government.
21:30
And Luce compares him favorably in certain respects to
21:33
Kissinger,
21:34
which I think is fair.
21:37
SPEAKER_02: Well,
21:37
SPEAKER_02: Aaron Friedberg,
21:39
we could spend a whole hour on the academy and political
21:42
correctness and wokeness
21:43
SPEAKER_02: and all that stuff.
21:44
SPEAKER_02: I think I'd like to ask just one question.
21:46
SPEAKER_02: I was thinking today,
21:49
SPEAKER_02: knowing that we would be talking about Arthur Waldron,
21:51
SPEAKER_02: a friend of mine earlier,
21:54
SPEAKER_02: a professor of, I'll call it China studies.
21:57
SPEAKER_02: And he taught at Princeton,
22:00
SPEAKER_02: has had his career at Penn,
22:02
SPEAKER_02: but he was very controversial at Princeton.
22:04
And I believe he said on our show that he was denied tenure
22:08
because he said
22:09
shocking things such as the Korean war started when the North
22:13
invaded the South.
22:17
SPEAKER_02: Did you run into anything like that?
22:20
SPEAKER_02: Any real sort of nutty stuff?
22:23
like that well first i should say i have a lot of respect for
22:27
for arthur and i got
22:28
to know him it was after he left princeton and heard stories
22:32
from him about some of
22:33
his experiences and i don't have any reason to doubt that he
22:37
was uh i don't know if
22:39
black bald is too strong a term but he ran into difficulty
22:42
because of his political
22:44
SPEAKER_00: views um
22:46
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that I encountered much of that directly.
22:51
SPEAKER_00: Certainly around the fringes, occasionally things would come up.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: This is not quite a serious answer,
23:02
but I do remember coming back from working for Cheney and going
23:05
to a dinner party.
23:06
SPEAKER_00: I don't remember whose house it was.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: And sitting next to some very nice lady who asked me,
23:12
SPEAKER_00: what I was doing or what I had been doing,
23:14
SPEAKER_00: and I was trying to avoid telling her all the details.
23:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, of course.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: I feel you.
23:18
SPEAKER_02: I totally feel you.
23:19
SPEAKER_02: I've been there a lot.
23:20
SPEAKER_00: And so I said, well, I worked in Washington.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: Now, what did you do?
23:23
And so,
23:24
of course,
23:24
eventually I had to mess up and tell her that I worked in
23:27
Cheney's office.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: And it's possible that I'm embellishing this memory,
23:31
SPEAKER_00: but my recollection is that she dropped her glass of wine.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: At the very least,
23:36
SPEAKER_00: she uttered an audible gasp,
23:38
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:39
SPEAKER_00: at the thought that some colleague could have done something like that.
23:45
SPEAKER_00: I remember once being on a, I think it was...
23:49
uh it was a c-span call-in program so shortly after i got out
23:54
of the government and
23:55
talking about it was the north korean nuclear program and they
23:59
take calls and there
24:00
was someone who called um very nice sounding lady and she
24:04
starts off by saying you
24:05
know you seem like such a nice young man i mean how could you
24:09
work for these
24:09
terrible people and i was i was this close to saying mom is
24:13
that you because
24:16
because i knew that's how my mother felt uh but i didn't um but
24:19
no i think um you
24:21
know i i would say i had my views and and expressed them where
24:27
it was appropriate
24:27
SPEAKER_00: but i also wasn't i wasn't interested in proselytizing or campaigning or
24:34
necessarily even debating with my colleagues about various
24:37
things so uh i think
24:39
SPEAKER_00: they knew
24:41
SPEAKER_00: more or less, where they thought they knew what my opinions were.
24:44
Maybe they just gave me wide berth because they didn't want to
24:47
get into arguments about it.
24:48
SPEAKER_00: But I never felt oppressed in any way because of them.
24:55
SPEAKER_02: Well,
24:56
SPEAKER_02: Aaron,
24:57
SPEAKER_02: some time ago,
24:58
SPEAKER_02: some years ago,
24:59
SPEAKER_02: you wrote this book with a title,
25:01
SPEAKER_02: The Weary Titan,
25:02
SPEAKER_02: about Britain.
25:05
SPEAKER_02: And
25:05
SPEAKER_02: Personally,
25:06
SPEAKER_02: I wouldn't call the United States weary,
25:09
SPEAKER_02: perhaps the people,
25:10
SPEAKER_02: but not the government.
25:12
SPEAKER_02: I think the government is certainly the executive branch,
25:14
SPEAKER_02: the Trump administration is all too energetic,
25:17
SPEAKER_02: if you will.
25:20
SPEAKER_02: They're just on, I was gonna say the other side, let me edit that.
25:27
SPEAKER_02: What do you say?
25:28
SPEAKER_02: What do you say about this weary Titan business?
25:33
SPEAKER_00: Do you mean whether the United States is... Yeah, but what do I mean?
25:35
SPEAKER_02: Yes, what do I mean?
25:38
SPEAKER_02: Well, our friend Charles Krauthammer said decline is a choice.
25:41
And I always thought that was right for the United States,
25:44
not for most countries,
25:44
of course.
25:46
But I thought that it was in sort of America's gift to be what
25:50
it wanted in the world.
25:52
SPEAKER_02: Let me start there.
25:54
SPEAKER_02: Is decline a choice?
25:55
SPEAKER_02: And are we or some of us, half of us, let's say, making it?
26:01
SPEAKER_00: Well, within certain limits, it's a choice.
26:05
SPEAKER_00: You know,
26:05
a country that's the size of Switzerland can't decide that it
26:10
wants to be global
26:11
SPEAKER_00: power.
26:11
SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't apply.
26:14
SPEAKER_00: I think it applies to major powers.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: Again...
26:19
SPEAKER_00: maybe in certain respects at the margin,
26:21
SPEAKER_00: you can't change the fundamentals,
26:25
SPEAKER_00: at least not doing it very quickly.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: But you can choose as a nation to be more or less active,
26:31
SPEAKER_00: more or less forward-leaning and so on.
26:33
SPEAKER_00: I think the context in which,
26:37
SPEAKER_00: at least in which I wrote that book,
26:39
SPEAKER_00: which was based on my dissertation,
26:40
SPEAKER_00: so I was writing it in the mid to late 1980s,
26:44
was one in which there was beginning to be an active debate
26:46
that Paul Kennedy's
26:48
book eventually triggered a kind of conflagration of interest
26:53
in this subject.
26:54
SPEAKER_00: But there was a widespread perception at the time.
26:57
SPEAKER_02: That book was even an issue in the 1988 presidential campaign.
27:00
SPEAKER_00: I remember.
27:02
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
27:03
Well,
27:03
all academics dream of having a bestseller that people actually
27:09
pay attention to.
27:10
SPEAKER_00: And his book came out,
27:12
SPEAKER_00: I think it was,
27:13
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it was the week of,
27:15
SPEAKER_00: but it was very close to the October 87 stock market crash.
27:19
SPEAKER_00: So that gave an added impetus to this idea of decline.
27:23
I'll tell you this,
27:23
Aaron,
27:23
just to speak personally before I let you continue.
27:25
SPEAKER_02: I was an ardent Republican at the time.
27:29
SPEAKER_02: And so I resented the book.
27:31
SPEAKER_02: I had not read it.
27:32
SPEAKER_02: I still haven't read it.
27:33
SPEAKER_02: I resented the book.
27:35
But later I came to know for a fact that Professor Kennedy is a
27:39
very,
27:40
very smart guy.
27:42
SPEAKER_00: Yes, absolutely.
27:44
SPEAKER_00: And I would say that book is not the best of his books.
27:49
The book that I always refer people to is The Rise of the
27:53
Anglo-German Antagonism,
27:55
SPEAKER_00: which was published in 1980.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: And it's as thick as a phone book,
28:00
SPEAKER_00: which I guess was true of this other book as well,
28:03
SPEAKER_00: but it's a very,
28:04
SPEAKER_00: very detailed account of how it is that
28:07
SPEAKER_00: Britain and Germany,
28:08
SPEAKER_00: which,
28:09
SPEAKER_00: as he shows,
28:10
SPEAKER_00: were two countries that weren't by any means destined to become enemies,
28:14
SPEAKER_00: did,
28:14
SPEAKER_00: in fact,
28:15
SPEAKER_00: by the time 1914 rolled around,
28:18
SPEAKER_00: become enemies for all kinds of reasons,
28:19
including the economic growing economic friction and growth of
28:24
kind of aggressive
28:24
SPEAKER_00: nationalism and so on.
28:26
SPEAKER_00: So I recommend people find that book.
28:28
It's not as commonly referred to,
28:30
but I think it's really his his best work.
28:33
SPEAKER_00: But on the question of decline,
28:36
If you think of that in the ways that I guess many political
28:40
scientists do,
28:41
SPEAKER_00: which is to say,
28:44
SPEAKER_00: is a country declining in terms of its sort of aggregate material power?
28:54
SPEAKER_00: Kennedy and others have talked about relative decline.
28:56
And that was the subtitle of my book was Great Britain and the
28:59
Experience of
29:00
SPEAKER_00: Relative Decline,
29:02
which means not necessarily falling below somebody else or some
29:06
other country,
29:07
SPEAKER_00: but losing the margin of advantage that it has previously had.
29:13
SPEAKER_00: That, of course, does happen, can happen.
29:17
And it is possible for countries to react in better and worse
29:23
or more and less
29:25
efficacious ways to the recognition that that's happening and
29:29
sometimes to preserve
29:30
SPEAKER_00: their advantages for a longer period of time or not.
29:35
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
29:35
SPEAKER_00: in the case of Great Britain,
29:37
SPEAKER_00: they were experiencing not only relative decline,
29:40
SPEAKER_00: but absolute decline,
29:41
SPEAKER_00: at least as measured by these aggregate economic statistics,
29:45
SPEAKER_00: because
29:46
SPEAKER_00: By the turn of the 20th century,
29:49
Britain had already been overtaken by the United States as the
29:52
leading industrial
29:53
SPEAKER_00: power and also by Germany.
29:56
So they could have done more to stay close,
30:01
and they didn't do as much as they could have.
30:04
SPEAKER_00: In the case of the United States,
30:07
SPEAKER_00: in the late 1980s and early 1990s,
30:10
SPEAKER_00: when,
30:10
SPEAKER_00: as you say,
30:11
this was an issue of public debate and did enter into the
30:15
presidential campaigns,
30:16
SPEAKER_00: I think it even came up in 1992.
30:17
SPEAKER_00: In retrospect, those concerns were wildly exaggerated and misplaced.
30:27
SPEAKER_02: Weren't they ever?
30:28
Well,
30:29
if you look at the cover of at least the original version of
30:32
Kennedy's book,
30:33
it has
30:34
SPEAKER_00: You know,
30:35
SPEAKER_00: the stereotypical cartoon image of a British statesman,
30:39
SPEAKER_00: you know,
30:39
this staircase and they're walking down and Uncle Sam is at the
30:44
top about to head
30:45
SPEAKER_00: down.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: But who's coming up behind is a little Japanese figure.
30:50
SPEAKER_00: That's what many people thought at the time.
30:52
SPEAKER_02: You remember a joke.
30:54
SPEAKER_02: I'm sure you heard this over and over.
30:56
And the great superpower competition between the United States
30:59
and the Soviet Union,
31:00
who won?
31:01
SPEAKER_02: Answer Japan.
31:02
That was the smart joke for about five years until it was a lot
31:06
less smart.
31:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, right.
31:07
And some people said Japan and Germany because they were so
31:09
fixated on economic performance.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: And of course, both of those were were wildly.
31:16
SPEAKER_00: inaccurate,
31:17
the country that was experiencing that absolute decline was the
31:22
Soviet Union and
31:23
SPEAKER_00: soon to be the former Soviet Union.
31:25
And the United States was entering into a period when it really
31:28
was overwhelmingly
31:31
SPEAKER_00: dominant,
31:31
SPEAKER_00: this so-called unipolar moment,
31:33
SPEAKER_00: which I think Krauthammer also.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: And that was that was true.
31:40
SPEAKER_00: If you look at our position now,
31:44
We are still by many,
31:46
I would say by most measures of material power,
31:49
number one.
31:51
SPEAKER_00: But we have experienced a relative decline.
31:54
SPEAKER_00: Our margin of advantage has diminished with respect to China.
31:58
So we are now challenged in a more serious way by a rising
32:03
power than we were 30
32:06
years ago when people were talking about this and when there
32:08
was no real rising
32:10
SPEAKER_00: challenger.
32:11
SPEAKER_02: Mm-hmm.
32:13
I would like to get to China,
32:14
but although this may sound strange,
32:17
via Ukraine.
32:18
SPEAKER_02: What in the world is Jay talking about?
32:22
I hold the Ukraine war to be very important to Ukrainians first
32:26
and foremost.
32:27
SPEAKER_02: I think it's important for the Russians as well.
32:31
SPEAKER_02: I think the giving up of imperialism,
32:35
SPEAKER_02: the abandonment of a lust for other people's countries would be very,
32:39
SPEAKER_02: very good for the Russian people.
32:42
SPEAKER_02: This war is important to Europe.
32:44
And I think to the world at large,
32:46
including Taiwan,
32:48
certainly Taiwanese think so.
32:51
SPEAKER_02: I wonder if you also view the Ukraine war as having...
32:58
SPEAKER_02: consequences for the globe at large?
33:01
SPEAKER_00: Yes, I do.
33:02
SPEAKER_00: And it's unclear exactly what those consequences are going to be.
33:07
SPEAKER_00: When the war first broke out,
33:09
SPEAKER_00: and in the first couple of years that it was underway,
33:12
SPEAKER_00: I was hopeful that what we were seeing was a
33:20
SPEAKER_00: a coming together of the liberal democracies.
33:24
SPEAKER_02: Yes, I was going to say a waking up.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
33:27
SPEAKER_00: Both in Europe, where it was long overdue,
33:31
SPEAKER_00: and also to a certain extent in Asia,
33:33
SPEAKER_00: where it had already begun because of the growth of Chinese power.
33:37
And I thought there was an opportunity to recreate a global
33:42
alliance of liberal
33:43
SPEAKER_00: democratic powers,
33:45
SPEAKER_00: because in the first years after the war began,
33:48
Asian states were much more concerned with Russia than they had
33:53
been with what
33:54
SPEAKER_00: Russia was doing.
33:55
SPEAKER_00: And
33:57
governments in Europe were more concerned about China and what
34:00
China was doing.
34:01
SPEAKER_00: And people in both places were starting to see these authoritarian,
34:05
SPEAKER_00: aggressive regimes as having a lot in common.
34:08
And I felt that there was an opportunity to forge a
34:14
transcontinental alliance at
34:16
either end of the Eurasian landmass centered on the maritime
34:21
power of the United
34:22
SPEAKER_00: States,
34:23
SPEAKER_00: which was essentially the form that the
34:26
globe took during much of the Cold War,
34:28
I still hope that that will be possible.
34:31
SPEAKER_00: Because certainly on the other side of that equation,
34:34
SPEAKER_00: what we've seen,
34:35
SPEAKER_00: and it's not just since the Ukraine War,
34:37
SPEAKER_00: but it's become more evident since the war began,
34:40
is the coming together of the authoritarian powers that are
34:44
seeking to alter the
34:46
SPEAKER_00: status quo and to assert themselves each in its own domain.
34:51
SPEAKER_00: China and Russia, the central players in that, but also
34:55
SPEAKER_00: Iran, North Korea.
34:56
SPEAKER_00: So that coalition is definitely there and has become much more solid.
35:02
SPEAKER_00: It's the liberal democratic coalition,
35:05
which has not congealed in the ways that I would have hoped and
35:08
which I am very
35:09
much concerned now may be split apart by policies that the
35:14
current government of
35:14
SPEAKER_00: the United States is pursuing.
35:18
SPEAKER_02: Aaron,
35:18
SPEAKER_02: some years ago,
35:20
when I heard talk about a great global competition between the
35:23
United States and
35:24
SPEAKER_02: China,
35:25
SPEAKER_02: I thought,
35:26
SPEAKER_02: you know,
35:27
SPEAKER_02: China really doesn't have much of a chance.
35:29
We have a great advantage,
35:30
namely our values,
35:32
our principles,
35:33
our ideals,
35:34
our example.
35:35
SPEAKER_02: Who wants to be a one-party police state?
35:39
SPEAKER_02: You know, whom does China inspire?
35:42
SPEAKER_02: The United States, this glorious experiment.
35:45
SPEAKER_02: has inspired people all over the world for generations.
35:49
I mean,
35:50
men such as Tolstoy,
35:52
you know,
35:52
have been wowed by the United States.
35:55
We appealed to the grand,
35:58
the great,
35:59
the good,
35:59
the small,
36:00
and I'm not so sure anymore.
36:04
SPEAKER_02: I'm not so sure.
36:05
SPEAKER_02: And I sort of dislike that,
36:08
SPEAKER_02: somewhat dislike the phrase soft power,
36:11
SPEAKER_02: but I thought we had a very great advantage in soft power
36:16
SPEAKER_02: I'm not sure I'm as confident in that as I used to be.
36:20
SPEAKER_00: I'm not either.
36:21
SPEAKER_00: And there again,
36:23
it's a choice or it's the choice of the people that we happen
36:26
to have put into
36:27
SPEAKER_00: power,
36:28
SPEAKER_00: at least for the time being.
36:30
We're in the process of squandering that advantage or we could
36:33
because we're now
36:34
SPEAKER_00: led by people who don't share those values.
36:38
SPEAKER_00: So not only are indifferent to them, but are actively hostile to them.
36:41
SPEAKER_00: and who identify,
36:43
SPEAKER_00: to the contrary,
36:44
SPEAKER_00: with people who ought to be our opponents,
36:47
SPEAKER_00: who are illiberal leaders,
36:49
SPEAKER_00: dictators,
36:51
SPEAKER_00: who are pursuing expansionist and aggressive policies.
36:55
A young man in Denmark said to me,
36:58
a policy analyst,
37:01
we're back to the law of the jungle.
37:02
SPEAKER_02: We're back to might makes right in spheres of influence.
37:05
SPEAKER_02: And for a small nation like Denmark, that's unhappy.
37:11
SPEAKER_00: Well, we certainly could be headed that way.
37:14
SPEAKER_00: And it's profoundly mistaken.
37:18
SPEAKER_00: And it's also, in my view, morally wrong.
37:22
SPEAKER_00: And it's a tragedy.
37:24
SPEAKER_00: And I hope that it's possible to arrest that slide.
37:29
SPEAKER_00: By the way, I don't believe that this is what
37:33
a substantial majority of the American people actually want or
37:36
even understand that
37:38
SPEAKER_00: that's what they may be getting.
37:39
SPEAKER_00: If you look at public opinion polls,
37:41
SPEAKER_00: you'd find,
37:41
SPEAKER_00: for example,
37:42
that substantial majorities support the proposition that the
37:46
United States should
37:47
SPEAKER_00: come to the aid of its NATO allies,
37:49
SPEAKER_00: if need be,
37:50
SPEAKER_00: and its democratic allies in Asia.
37:53
SPEAKER_00: So the American people are not isolationist.
37:57
SPEAKER_00: I think, again,
37:59
SPEAKER_00: Looking at these public opinion polls,
38:01
SPEAKER_00: a majority of our people believe,
38:05
SPEAKER_00: as I do,
38:06
SPEAKER_00: not to be overly simplistic about it,
38:08
SPEAKER_00: but that there are good guys and bad guys.
38:10
SPEAKER_02: And, you know, the good guys are- That's not simplistic at all.
38:13
SPEAKER_02: Sure.
38:15
SPEAKER_00: To me,
38:15
it's the starting point of any intelligent analysis of our role
38:21
in the world and
38:22
SPEAKER_00: identifying who our friends are and who our opponents are.
38:26
And our friends are those who share our values and the values
38:29
on which our system is based.
38:31
And our opponents are those who are hostile to those values and
38:33
seek to weaken them
38:34
SPEAKER_00: to the extent that they can.
38:36
So the thought that we're currently led by people who don't
38:40
share those values and
38:41
SPEAKER_00: seem to be intent on weakening them and seem to see our friends,
38:48
SPEAKER_00: our erstwhile friends,
38:50
SPEAKER_00: as opponents,
38:51
SPEAKER_00: as an annoyance,
38:52
SPEAKER_00: at least,
38:52
SPEAKER_00: if not an active opponent at worst,
38:56
SPEAKER_00: are leading us in a
38:58
very dangerous direction and one which I think is fundamentally
39:03
at odds with the
39:04
SPEAKER_00: principles on which this country was founded.
39:06
I mean,
39:07
for that reason,
39:08
I'm hopeful that it's not going to be an enduring change.
39:12
SPEAKER_00: It's possible that we could pull back from the world.
39:15
SPEAKER_00: We've gone through periods of
39:18
isolationism in the past or less active engagement in the world
39:24
in our history,
39:26
not so much since we emerged as a major or the leading world
39:31
power in the early
39:31
SPEAKER_00: part of the 20th century.
39:33
SPEAKER_00: So that would be something different.
39:35
SPEAKER_00: But to be actively hostile
39:38
to liberal democracy and liberal democratic countries is
39:43
something that we have not
39:44
SPEAKER_00: experienced.
39:45
SPEAKER_02: That's switching sides.
39:47
SPEAKER_02: Andrew Roberts in the House of Lords said, this is switching sides.
39:51
SPEAKER_00: Right.
39:51
SPEAKER_00: And I don't believe in the long run
39:55
SPEAKER_00: that people of this country are going to support that.
39:59
SPEAKER_02: How long a run?
40:01
SPEAKER_02: I'm worried about the next few years,
40:04
SPEAKER_02: of course,
40:04
SPEAKER_02: but maybe you're right to take this longer view.
40:07
SPEAKER_02: I know you are.
40:08
SPEAKER_00: Well,
40:10
SPEAKER_00: There's a great deal of damage that can be done,
40:14
SPEAKER_00: that has been done,
40:15
SPEAKER_00: that may yet be done by a government which is doing things which,
40:19
SPEAKER_00: again,
40:19
SPEAKER_00: I don't think are what the American people voted for.
40:23
SPEAKER_00: And it's hard to undo,
40:26
SPEAKER_00: or it will be hard to undo some of that damage,
40:29
in part because it is raising enduring questions about our
40:34
reliability as an ally.
40:36
SPEAKER_00: We built up
40:39
substantial reservoir of goodwill that may be putting a little
40:43
too strongly,
40:45
but belief that the United States ultimately would do the right
40:49
thing and could be
40:49
SPEAKER_00: counted on as a powerful ally,
40:53
SPEAKER_00: it's harder to build that up than it is to destroy it.
40:57
SPEAKER_00: And in a world in which
40:59
SPEAKER_00: other powers,
41:01
SPEAKER_00: hostile authoritarian powers are becoming stronger and are menacing their
41:06
SPEAKER_00: neighbors,
41:07
SPEAKER_00: the margin of error is getting narrower for those countries.
41:11
SPEAKER_00: And if they can't rely on us,
41:13
they're either going to have to appease these aggressors and
41:16
try to cut the best
41:17
SPEAKER_00: deals they can,
41:19
or they're going to have to try to group together and or
41:23
acquire weapons like
41:25
SPEAKER_00: nuclear weapons,
41:26
SPEAKER_00: which they think are necessary to preserve their
41:29
SPEAKER_00: independence and their freedom.
41:30
So we're pulling the pins from this structure that we've built
41:35
up in the 80 or so
41:37
SPEAKER_00: years since the end of the Second World War.
41:40
SPEAKER_00: And I feared that the consequences could be catastrophic,
41:45
after which we'll have to step in and put the thing back
41:48
together again if we're
41:49
SPEAKER_00: lucky.
41:50
SPEAKER_00: And that is not going to be easy to do.
41:51
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
41:52
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
41:54
SPEAKER_02: Well, Professor, I was thinking of this phrase, spheres of influence.
41:58
SPEAKER_02: To your recollection,
41:59
SPEAKER_02: does that phrase originate in the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact,
42:03
SPEAKER_02: or was it an existing phrase merely used in it?
42:07
SPEAKER_02: Do you happen to remember?
42:07
SPEAKER_00: That's a good question.
42:08
SPEAKER_00: I don't remember.
42:09
SPEAKER_00: I think that it has an earlier history.
42:12
SPEAKER_00: I believe that I can recall, and Professor May would...
42:17
SPEAKER_00: not giving me a passing grade for not remembering this,
42:19
SPEAKER_02: but I believe- He would have given you time to study.
42:21
SPEAKER_00: Well, that's true.
42:23
I believe that it's something that was used in diplomatic
42:26
discussions earlier,
42:27
SPEAKER_00: so in the 19th century,
42:29
SPEAKER_00: but I'm not sure.
42:30
The idea that a powerful state should be able to control what
42:35
goes on around it is
42:37
SPEAKER_00: certainly not a new one.
42:38
SPEAKER_00: No.
42:40
The worry that some of us have is that there's this
42:43
understanding in the Trump
42:44
SPEAKER_02: administration that
42:46
SPEAKER_02: oh, you know, we're concerned about Venezuela.
42:49
SPEAKER_02: We need to have Greenland.
42:51
SPEAKER_02: Sure, Putin, Ukraine.
42:53
SPEAKER_02: I don't know if Ukraine is kind of Russian anyway.
42:55
SPEAKER_02: Isn't that Putin's near abroad?
42:56
SPEAKER_02: What business is it of ours?
42:58
SPEAKER_02: And then Taiwan is Chinese after all, right?
43:00
SPEAKER_02: And Xi Jinping is a good guy.
43:03
SPEAKER_02: I wonder if you share this concern.
43:06
SPEAKER_02: It would upend everything our country has long stood for.
43:11
SPEAKER_02: Namely, self-determination, right and wrong.
43:15
SPEAKER_01: Right.
43:16
SPEAKER_02: International law.
43:18
SPEAKER_02: You don't simply erase countries by force.
43:24
SPEAKER_02: This is elementary,
43:25
SPEAKER_02: and to get sort of oratorical about it,
43:29
so many servicemen have died for this general overarching cause
43:34
of keeping bullies
43:37
SPEAKER_02: from running the world.
43:38
SPEAKER_02: Yes.
43:38
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
43:39
Yes,
43:40
and doing things that are threatening ultimately to the United
43:43
States.
43:44
SPEAKER_00: So there are... And there's naked self-interest.
43:46
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
43:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
43:47
SPEAKER_00: So there are moral and principled reasons for opposing,
43:51
allowing powers to have spheres of influence from which they
43:55
can exclude us,
43:57
SPEAKER_00: for example.
43:58
SPEAKER_00: But there are also good strategic reasons.
44:00
SPEAKER_00: I mean, the idea that we assuming this is what they want.
44:04
SPEAKER_00: And frankly,
44:05
I'm not really convinced that there is an overarching sort of
44:09
theoretical concept
44:11
SPEAKER_00: that informs what this administration is doing.
44:13
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it seems to me that
44:17
SPEAKER_00: this administration is acting on the impulses and beliefs,
44:21
SPEAKER_00: however they're arrived at,
44:22
SPEAKER_00: of one man.
44:24
SPEAKER_00: And one of the things that I found distressing,
44:27
SPEAKER_00: and this goes back to 2016,
44:29
SPEAKER_00: but it's certainly been even more present since,
44:34
is the idea that there are then intelligent and presumably
44:39
well-informed people who
44:40
ought to know better who are kind of running along behind
44:44
trying to impose some
44:46
system or claiming that there is some overarching strategic
44:49
rationale after the fact.
44:51
SPEAKER_00: It's like the guy who cleans up after the elephants at the circus.
44:55
SPEAKER_00: And I think we see that in the discussion of Greenland and so on.
45:00
But just,
45:01
you know,
45:01
just in power political terms,
45:03
let's put aside the question of principle.
45:07
SPEAKER_00: If the world's going to be divided up into three parts,
45:10
SPEAKER_00: and there's the Western Hemisphere,
45:13
SPEAKER_00: then there's Eastern Eurasia,
45:15
SPEAKER_00: and then there's Western Eurasia,
45:17
SPEAKER_00: of those three,
45:19
we would wind up with the one that's worth the least in terms
45:22
of economic and
45:25
SPEAKER_00: technological capacities.
45:28
SPEAKER_00: China would wind up with the one that has the most, and Europe –
45:32
if presumably if it was dominated by Russia would be would be
45:35
in between.
45:36
So it doesn't make any sense from from a strategic point of
45:40
view,
45:41
certainly.
45:42
SPEAKER_00: And I hope that we won't proceed too far down that path.
45:48
SPEAKER_00: But that way of thinking, I mean, I guess one thing I know is
45:54
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
45:54
SPEAKER_00: there are certain ideas that have come to be commonly accepted,
45:59
SPEAKER_00: certainly in the in the West over the last century and more,
46:04
SPEAKER_00: which the United States has,
46:05
SPEAKER_00: for the most part,
46:06
SPEAKER_00: adopted and championed,
46:09
SPEAKER_00: which aren't you know,
46:10
SPEAKER_00: there aren't laws of physics.
46:12
It's not given that in some notional future,
46:17
powerful countries could carve up
46:19
SPEAKER_00: weaker countries and grab some of their territory.
46:23
SPEAKER_00: You know,
46:23
it's not even given that but it's certainly not given that
46:27
protectionism couldn't
46:28
SPEAKER_00: make a comeback.
46:29
SPEAKER_00: You know,
46:29
SPEAKER_00: this was something which 10 or 15 years ago,
46:32
SPEAKER_00: you know,
46:33
no polite member of the Council on Foreign Relations would have
46:37
would have
46:37
SPEAKER_00: entertained and
46:39
SPEAKER_00: Now,
46:39
SPEAKER_00: there are some good reasons,
46:40
SPEAKER_00: I think,
46:41
SPEAKER_00: to pursue certain kinds of protectionist policies,
46:43
SPEAKER_00: but those ideas have changed.
46:45
SPEAKER_00: But, you know, spin it out a little bit.
46:48
How long has slavery been an unacceptable idea and a concept
46:53
that people would go
46:54
SPEAKER_00: to war to try to prevent?
46:56
SPEAKER_00: It's not that long.
46:57
SPEAKER_02: Historically, the blink of an eye.
46:59
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
46:59
So I worry that we could be started down a slippery slope that
47:05
leads to a very,
47:06
SPEAKER_00: very ugly world,
47:08
SPEAKER_00: one that we won't recognize and which will not be in our best interest.
47:14
There is no future that I can see in which would benefit the
47:20
United States to carve
47:21
SPEAKER_00: the world up into spheres of influence,
47:23
have Russia dominating one side of Eurasia and China dominating
47:27
the other.
47:28
SPEAKER_00: How does that benefit the United States?
47:30
SPEAKER_00: Aside from the right and wrong of it all, it's crazy.
47:36
SPEAKER_02: It's like mafia families.
47:38
SPEAKER_02: You're the boss here, you're the boss there.
47:40
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
47:41
SPEAKER_00: And honestly, I think that's the mentality that underpinned it.
47:44
SPEAKER_00: And that's not based on some theoretical examination or disquisition.
47:50
It's based on the thinking of a small handful of people who
47:53
happen to be in power right now.
47:57
SPEAKER_02: I had a funny thought, Aaron.
47:58
SPEAKER_02: Not funny, haha.
48:00
SPEAKER_02: Sort of a whimsical thought.
48:03
SPEAKER_02: America's current behavior.
48:04
I wonder whether it will increase anti-Americanism in the world
48:08
or pro-Americanism.
48:11
SPEAKER_02: Explain what I mean.
48:12
SPEAKER_02: I've always loved something John Bolton says.
48:15
SPEAKER_02: He said it for 30 years, probably more.
48:18
SPEAKER_02: And it has to do with U.S.
48:20
primacy in the world and the fact that a lot of people resent
48:23
it and they're
48:24
SPEAKER_02: anti-American as a result.
48:25
SPEAKER_02: What John has always said is, they'll miss us when we're gone.
48:29
SPEAKER_02: They'll miss us when we're gone.
48:31
SPEAKER_02: And I wonder that as we go...
48:36
SPEAKER_02: I wonder how people generally around the world will feel.
48:40
SPEAKER_02: You know, Yankee come back?
48:42
SPEAKER_02: I wonder.
48:43
Well,
48:43
it may be by the time they get to feel that way,
48:46
it may be a little too late.
48:48
SPEAKER_00: But no, I think Bolton is right.
48:51
SPEAKER_00: They'll miss us when we're gone.
48:52
SPEAKER_00: Our allies,
48:54
SPEAKER_00: to varying degrees,
48:56
SPEAKER_00: have long histories of being critical of the United States,
49:00
SPEAKER_00: certainly of American policy,
49:01
some aspects of American culture and society and so on and our
49:04
institutions.
49:05
SPEAKER_00: But...
49:06
SPEAKER_00: For the most part,
49:07
SPEAKER_00: they've at the end of the day,
49:09
SPEAKER_00: they've recognized the value in what we stand for and what we do and have
49:15
recognized that they are a lot better off and a lot safer in a
49:18
world where we are
49:19
SPEAKER_00: present and active.
49:20
I mean,
49:22
there is some when you watch the unfolding reactions in Europe,
49:26
it's different.
49:27
SPEAKER_00: Europe versus Asia.
49:29
But there are some fairly deep reservoirs of what I think can
49:33
fairly be called
49:34
SPEAKER_00: anti-American sentiment in some parts of Europe.
49:38
SPEAKER_00: And some of that is bubbled to the surface.
49:41
SPEAKER_00: It's almost like, well, we told you so.
49:44
SPEAKER_00: This was always the way the Americans were.
49:46
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's kind of
49:47
SPEAKER_00: As you say, it's funny, but not funny.
49:51
SPEAKER_02: I've had some of that directed at me.
49:54
SPEAKER_00: I don't really talk back against it, frankly.
49:58
SPEAKER_00: But when you think about the things that people said about the
50:03
SPEAKER_00: George W. Bush administration.
50:04
SPEAKER_00: Oh, my gosh.
50:05
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
50:05
SPEAKER_00: Reagan administration.
50:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
50:06
SPEAKER_00: Right.
50:07
SPEAKER_00: Which,
50:07
SPEAKER_00: you know,
50:08
SPEAKER_00: there were some grounds for various criticisms,
50:10
SPEAKER_00: but the kind of hyperbolic language that was used to denounce those those
50:14
SPEAKER_00: presidents and their policies.
50:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, sometimes I feel like saying, OK, you want to see what?
50:20
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
50:23
SPEAKER_00: This is a lot closer.
50:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
50:25
SPEAKER_02: So I don't see a problem wasn't Mitt Romney and John McCain.
50:30
SPEAKER_00: No, no, it definitely was not.
50:33
I don't see a big upsurge of philo-Americanism,
50:38
if I can use that term,
50:39
anytime soon.
50:41
But I think serious people recognize that there's a deep
50:47
problem and a danger for them.
50:49
SPEAKER_00: I guess the question I have,
50:51
SPEAKER_00: and I don't know the answer,
50:54
SPEAKER_00: because I don't know what is going to happen,
50:56
SPEAKER_00: obviously,
50:57
SPEAKER_00: but to what extent do people,
50:59
SPEAKER_00: informed observers in other places,
51:02
see what's happening now as representative in some way of the
51:07
future direction of
51:08
the United States and of American policy as compared to seeing
51:12
it as an aberration,
51:14
SPEAKER_00: a deviation?
51:15
SPEAKER_00: And of course, they can't know, but that would inform how they behave.
51:20
SPEAKER_00: I guess my hope,
51:21
SPEAKER_00: no one asked me for my advice,
51:23
SPEAKER_00: but my advice to our allies would be,
51:27
SPEAKER_00: one,
51:28
SPEAKER_00: you better be prepared to take more care of yourself,
51:32
SPEAKER_00: yourselves collectively,
51:35
in part because you needed to do that for a while and you're
51:38
getting a late start
51:39
SPEAKER_00: on it,
51:40
SPEAKER_00: but you have to do more of it on the one hand.
51:44
And also because you can't be sure what direction the United
51:47
States is going to go.
51:49
SPEAKER_00: But at the same time,
51:50
SPEAKER_00: I would say,
51:51
try to the extent possible to avoid a real breakdown in
51:57
relations that puts not
52:00
SPEAKER_00: only governments,
52:01
SPEAKER_00: but people in some way at odds with one another.
52:04
SPEAKER_02: Aaron, you remind me of a legal defense from the 1970s.
52:09
SPEAKER_02: We heard about this when we were coming of age.
52:11
SPEAKER_02: You remember temporary insanity?
52:13
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
52:15
SPEAKER_00: Does that still exist?
52:16
SPEAKER_00: I doubt it.
52:17
SPEAKER_02: I doubt it, but it's a very useful phrase.
52:20
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
52:20
Well,
52:21
yes,
52:21
you could say that that's a description of some of what's going
52:25
on.
52:25
SPEAKER_00: And my sense,
52:26
SPEAKER_00: and it's not based on any kind of scientific survey or anything else,
52:30
SPEAKER_00: it's just impressionistic,
52:31
SPEAKER_00: is that
52:33
SPEAKER_00: There are a lot of people who do feel that way now,
52:37
SPEAKER_00: in part because they can see,
52:39
and this is also why I think it's so important for people in
52:42
this country to be
52:43
outspoken in their criticisms of the current administration and
52:47
in their attempts
52:48
SPEAKER_00: to rein in and ultimately to change the direction of policy that this
52:52
SPEAKER_00: administration has chosen,
52:56
SPEAKER_00: to make clear that this is not what
52:59
SPEAKER_00: this country is all about.
53:01
SPEAKER_00: And in the long run, hopefully, it's not what we will come to represent.
53:06
SPEAKER_00: And these are not the policies that we're going to continue to pursue.
53:10
SPEAKER_02: Well,
53:10
SPEAKER_02: ladies and gentlemen,
53:11
SPEAKER_02: I am Jay Nordlinger doing Q&A,
53:13
SPEAKER_02: and we've been listening to Aaron Friedberg,
53:15
SPEAKER_02: Professor Aaron L.
53:16
SPEAKER_02: Friedberg of Princeton.
53:19
SPEAKER_02: Aaron,
53:20
SPEAKER_02: are you going to put your feet up on a beach or write or both or,
53:25
SPEAKER_02: I don't know,
53:26
SPEAKER_02: take up scuba diving or...
53:29
SPEAKER_00: It's a good question.
53:30
SPEAKER_02: Join the circus?
53:32
SPEAKER_00: No, I think the circus, probably not.
53:34
SPEAKER_00: Scuba diving, probably not.
53:37
But I guess I've realized I've spent 40 years of my life mostly
53:41
working,
53:42
raising family.
53:44
SPEAKER_00: But probably I should have developed a few more hobbies along the way.
53:48
SPEAKER_00: But I'm kind of working on that.
53:50
SPEAKER_00: But I intend and hope to keep working.
53:53
SPEAKER_02: If you read and write and think and teach, that's enough.
54:00
SPEAKER_02: We don't need scuba diving, do we?
54:03
SPEAKER_02: Unless we like it.
54:05
SPEAKER_00: Right.
54:07
SPEAKER_00: But shifting gears, this is the thing that I'm thinking about.
54:11
SPEAKER_00: I haven't yet actually done it.
54:13
SPEAKER_00: But it is a little tricky when you realize how
54:19
the extent to which you've sort of programmed yourself to be
54:22
directed at these
54:23
SPEAKER_00: goals and working and so on.
54:26
SPEAKER_00: So I'm hoping to find a somewhat different equilibrium,
54:29
but there are a lot of interesting and important things going
54:32
on in the world.
54:32
I certainly hope to continue to follow them and perhaps to have
54:36
something to say
54:36
SPEAKER_00: about them as time goes on.
54:39
SPEAKER_00: But I've got one more semester of teaching,
54:42
SPEAKER_00: so I've deferred the necessity of making this transition,
54:46
SPEAKER_00: but it's coming at me fast.
54:49
SPEAKER_02: Well, I look forward to our next talk.
54:51
SPEAKER_00: Thank you very much, Jay.
54:52
SPEAKER_02: Thank you so much, everyone.
54:54
SPEAKER_02: Until next time.