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Episode 89 - 8/2/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 89 of the All Systems Go.
• 0:24
  Sports betting podcast powered by rhythm I'm your.
• 0:28
  Host Josh. Applebaum What's going on,
• 0:34
  everyone? Happy Friday.
• 0:36
  The work week is winding down. The weekend is.
• 0:38
  Upon us. And we got a lot.
• 0:40
  To get to on today's. Podcast I have a 5 pack of
• 0:43
  sweats. For you, including four Major
• 0:45
  League Baseball. Bets as well as.
• 0:47
  You know what, we love to talk. About on Fridays.
• 0:49
  A little bit of. Biting in the arena, UFC.
• 0:53
  That's right, I located a bout here.
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  With a very sharp line move a great.
• 0:58
  Bet split a. Big reach advantage and a big
• 1:00
  height advantage, so pretty much every box is being checked off.
• 1:04
  Let's see if we can. Run our winning streak.
• 1:06
  To eight straight in the UFC. Knock on wood, I'm.
• 1:08
  Also very excited because my. Buddy is hosting a cookout.
• 1:12
  Tomorrow. So we're getting all.
• 1:13
  The boys together, the wives are.
• 1:15
  Coming. The girlfriends are coming.
• 1:16
  The dogs, there's some babies. Coming As you can tell, we're in
• 1:19
  our. Mid to late 30s.
• 1:20
  Now, so some of the cookouts, you know, it changes a little.
• 1:24
  Bit as you get older. But we do have a UFC on ABC.
• 1:28
  Starting at noon, I believe. And the main.
• 1:30
  Card starts at 3:00 so. Grilling, chilling and
• 1:33
  thrilling. With the boys.
• 1:35
  And you know, we're going to be sweating.
• 1:36
  UFC Together. So I'm very much looking.
• 1:38
  Forward to tomorrow, but. I do have a UFC bout biting.
• 1:41
  System match for you guys. For tomorrow.
• 1:44
  With that being said though. How about another winning night
• 1:46
  in the arena, including a little bit of luck that went our way?
• 1:49
  So 2 and 1 + 1 unit 2, one and one, and the one that was a push
• 1:55
  or a void, whatever you want to call it, was our first NFL bet
• 1:58
  of the year. So on the bright side, we beat
• 2:00
  the closing line. Remember we talked about that
• 2:02
  really sharp dog to fave line move?
• 2:03
  In favor of Houston, they open getting a point and 1/2.
• 2:06
  They flip to -2 1/2 for the Hall of Fame.
• 2:09
  Game. We bet.
• 2:10
  Them when they were minus. Two on the money line.
• 2:12
  So you bet a money line at -2 closes. 2 1/2.
• 2:15
  And some. Shops are even juiced up. -2 1/2
• 2:18
  - 120 like it was going to. Three, we did our part.
• 2:21
  We beat the closing line, however.
• 2:24
  There's a good. Lead early for Houston.
• 2:25
  I'm like, oh, this is great. I think they're up.
• 2:27
  Was it 7 Nothing 10 to 717 to 7 Chicago.
• 2:31
  Storms back takes a. 2117 Lead. With like, I don't know, halfway
• 2:36
  through the third quarter. And then?
• 2:37
  The skies opened up Thunder. Lightning ton of rain.
• 2:41
  They end up canceling the game or postponing the OR not
• 2:44
  postponing. They basically shut the game
• 2:45
  off. Midway through the third
• 2:46
  quarter. So why is that?
• 2:47
  Important. That's important because.
• 2:50
  If they. And again, this is.
• 2:52
  Very important because you got. To look at your house.
• 2:54
  Rules and. House rules, basically.
• 2:57
  Basically you got to look at. The way your book will.
• 2:59
  Grade A game like this that gets, you know, cut off,
• 3:02
  cancelled, postponed and the. Majority of books almost.
• 3:06
  All books. Will grade that as a.
• 3:08
  Void or a no bet? Cancellation.
• 3:10
  You get your money back. Why?
• 3:12
  Because almost. Every book has a house.
• 3:14
  Rule when it comes to. Pre season football you have to
• 3:17
  play at. Least 55 minutes, so you might.
• 3:20
  Have seen on Twitter. A lot of you know.
• 3:22
  Odds makers or you know. PR people for different books.
• 3:25
  Talking Hey, House. Rules got to be 50. 5 minutes or
• 3:27
  more. So why is that important?
• 3:29
  Well, I'll take the. Void because Houston.
• 3:32
  Was down at the time by 4 points.
• 3:34
  Now Houston. Could have come back.
• 3:36
  At the time, Chicago it was. It was a Brett.
• 3:38
  Rippon just kept lighting up. Houston's defense.
• 3:41
  Gave him a. Four point lead there.
• 3:43
  Halfway through the 3rd. But anyway.
• 3:45
  We could have maybe crossed our. Fingers and said hey, play the
• 3:48
  rest of the game through the. Rain There was a the.
• 3:51
  Fourth string quarterback for Chicago was coming in.
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  Tim Boyle was it? Was in for Houston.
• 3:55
  Maybe Houston would. Have come back, scored and won
• 3:57
  the game and cashed our bet but also we were losing at the time
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  so Long story short. The bet got voided because of
• 4:04
  the. Weather and the game.
• 4:06
  Not being completed. And it was created as a voided
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  bet, so I'll. Take that personally, you know.
• 4:10
  You could walk the tightrope. And say, hey, Houston.
• 4:12
  Could have come back and won, but I think the fact that we
• 4:15
  beat the closing line and we got our money back.
• 4:17
  Hey, not too bad there. But we did have a good night in
• 4:20
  Major League Baseball. Had a couple.
• 4:21
  Great hits with the Guardians rolling. 2:50 Member Guardians
• 4:25
  have that tiny. Little 5 cent move.
• 4:27
  In their favor, and they're a little bit contrarian.
• 4:29
  Rockies had a. Massive come from behind when
• 4:31
  Rockies were down by two runs going into the 9th, they tied it
• 4:35
  up. They scored a run in the tenth.
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  They. Shut the door with a guy with a
• 4:38
  high era. I was like, I can't believe it.
• 4:40
  I'm like, here we go. They're going to lose.
• 4:41
  But. They held it down the.
• 4:43
  Rockies big winner the. One that was frustrating though.
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  Saint Louis Cardinals. Come on, man.
• 4:48
  The Saint Louis Cardinals were. Leading 4:00 to 2:00.
• 4:52
  Going into the bottom of the ninth and they brought on Ryan
• 4:54
  Helsley. This guy Hellboy, is actually.
• 4:57
  Jeremy Helixon. But if you remember that name, I
• 4:59
  can't believe that. Flowed out of me so easily, but
• 5:02
  Helsley throws. Like 102 mph.
• 5:05
  He's one of the best. Closers in baseball and he.
• 5:07
  Also came into the game having not given up a.
• 5:10
  Single earned run in all of July.
• 5:12
  So I'm like. Here we go.
• 5:13
  You know, shut the door. What happens?
• 5:15
  He blows it, gives up. Three runs and you lose. 5:00 to
• 5:18
  4:00 so. Even though you know we.
• 5:21
  We got the Cardinals. Blowing it for us.
• 5:23
  You know, saving or. You know, kind of not allowing
• 5:25
  us to go three and oh and bust out the brooms.
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  Hey, we had a good comeback with the Rockies, hey.
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  We had a bet voided that may have lost.
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  Either way, we eked out a profit so I'll take it.
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  Some things went our way. Some.
• 5:36
  Things didn't, but overall. Two and 1 + 1 unit.
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  I will take that every. Single time now as I mentioned
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  looking. Toward today a four pack. 4
• 5:44
  plays in Major League Baseball along.
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  With a big UFC biting. System match for tomorrow Let's
• 5:49
  start off with. The aforementioned Major League
• 5:52
  Baseball. So first by the night.
• 5:54
  Let's go to. Detroit, where the Tigers are.
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  Hosting the Kansas City Royals. Now going to this match up.
• 6:00
  We have the Kansas City. Royals. 61 and 49 on the year
• 6:04
  they cruised. To a. 7 to one win yesterday.
• 6:06
  And the series opener. Cashing as a minus. 145 road
• 6:09
  favorite. Now looking for tonight, the
• 6:12
  Royals. Are going to go with lefty Cole
• 6:14
  Reagan's who's? Seven and seven with a 3.37 ERA.
• 6:17
  It'll be. Opposed by the Cy Young.
• 6:19
  Favorite lefty Tarik Scubal On the year, Scubal is 12 and 3/2.
• 6:23
  .35 year, right? Tigers, by the way. 52 and 58 on
• 6:27
  the year. So what do we see across the
• 6:28
  market here? Well, even though.
• 6:30
  Scubal is a great pitcher. I'm betting against scuba.
• 6:32
  I'm going with. Bobby Witt, Junior.
• 6:34
  And the Kansas City. Royals at.
• 6:36
  Basically even money, maybe you find a little bit of plus money.
• 6:39
  But what I like about Kansas? City in the spot.
• 6:41
  Is the good sharp? Line move in their.
• 6:43
  Favorite We open this game Detroit.
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  A - 120 home favorite. And basically the tickets.
• 6:49
  Are pretty much down the middle. You're getting a slight majority
• 6:51
  of bets on Kansas. City.
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  They're getting 56. Percent of bets, but it's not
• 6:55
  like. They're getting 6676. 86% of
• 6:58
  bets I mean 56% pretty slight. Basically tells me public.
• 7:02
  Probably wants to bet Kansas. City just because.
• 7:05
  Better record and Bobby Witt. But also.
• 7:07
  They're wary of going up against the Cy Young.
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  Favorite at this point? I believe school is like -135
• 7:12
  for the Cy Young right now. So 56% of.
• 7:15
  Bets. Maybe a line?
• 7:17
  Moves one cent here or there, but doesn't usually move $0.10
• 7:20
  and that's. What we've seen here.
• 7:21
  Detroit open -120 Detroit is now down to -110 Now, why is that
• 7:26
  important? Because this line is going.
• 7:28
  Away from the Tigers. Toward.
• 7:30
  Kansas City, KS City went. From plus 110 down to basically
• 7:33
  plus 100. Some shops even hopping the
• 7:35
  fence to like -1 O five. We're not quite at a pick em.
• 7:39
  But basically we're going from Kansas City dog.
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  Dropping. Toward a pickup so that.
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  Tells me wise guys are saying hey.
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  We got a Royals team. That's red hot right now.
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  Detroit sold at the deadline even though they got their ace
• 7:50
  on the bump. Looks like smart.
• 7:52
  Money's going with Kansas. City at a very good value price
• 7:55
  as a basically coin flip dog. Now if you.
• 7:58
  Look at Kansas City. One thing I like about.
• 7:59
  Them is divisional dog value. Obviously these are two teams.
• 8:03
  In the AL Central. Kansas City's A divisional.
• 8:05
  Dog against Detroit Divisional. Matchups we do lean.
• 8:08
  Dogs historically just. Because of the built in.
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  Familiarity. Leveling the playing field.
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  Benefiting the team. Getting some plus money and I'm
• 8:15
  going to really bank on the offense.
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  Of Kansas City. Kansas City Royals.
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  Are hitting 252 on the year. They've scored. 519 runs.
• 8:23
  Tigers are hitting 2:30 with only 460 runs scored.
• 8:26
  And you may ask. Yourself we got 2.
• 8:28
  Lefties on the bump. Reagan's against Scubal.
• 8:31
  How do these teams do? Against lefties offensively
• 8:33
  well, big edge to Kansas. City Kansas City on the year is
• 8:37
  hitting 263 against lefties. That's the 5th best average in
• 8:40
  baseball against. Southpaws, Detroit.
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  'S only hitting 2:30. Nine against lefties.
• 8:44
  That ranks 22nd. Also the Royals.
• 8:47
  Over the last 10 games. Six and four hitting 290. 3
• 8:51
  tigers over the last. 10-3 and seven only hitting a buck. 91.
• 8:54
  So big advantage, hopefully offensively.
• 8:56
  For Kansas City and by the way? Divisional matchups.
• 9:00
  They play each other quite often.
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  Kansas City is five and two. Head to head against Detroit
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  this year. So do I love?
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  Going against Tarx Google. Arguably one of the best.
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  Pitchers in baseball? No, I don't.
• 9:10
  But I'm going to follow the sharp line move.
• 9:12
  I'm going to go with Kansas. City here.
• 9:14
  Again, going from plus 1/10. Basically down to even money.
• 9:17
  Shop around, try to get plus 100.
• 9:19
  I see. A + 1 O2 out there.
• 9:21
  I also see a - 1 O 5 so. Get as close to even money or a
• 9:24
  little. Plus money as you.
• 9:25
  Can but. I'm going to go with.
• 9:26
  Bobby Witt, Junior. And I'm going to follow this
• 9:29
  sharp line. Move.
• 9:29
  Give me the Kansas City. Royals.
• 9:31
  I got the Royals at +100. Next one up for you.
• 9:35
  If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Baltimore and Cleveland.
• 9:39
  The Guardians cashed a. Huge bet for us yesterday.
• 9:42
  Hint hint. I'm going right back to the.
• 9:43
  Wall of Cleveland here today. Now going into this one, the
• 9:46
  Guardians are. 66 and 42. Had a big win for us last night.
• 9:50
  2:50. Cashing as a -. 110 Home
• 9:52
  Favorite science matchup rematch in in.
• 9:55
  Cleveland, The Orioles, who are 65 and 40.
• 9:58
  Five. They're going to go.
• 9:58
  With ready Dean Kramer, he's. Four and seven with a 4.2 O ERA.
• 10:03
  Meanwhile, the Guardians are going to go.
• 10:04
  With ready Carlos Carrasco. 3:00 and 9:00. 5.68 ERA.
• 10:09
  What are we seeing across the market here?
• 10:10
  Well. Very similar to Detroit, Kansas.
• 10:12
  City where open. Detroit favorite?
• 10:14
  And lines dropping, same thing here, we open Baltimore favorite
• 10:17
  and now the lines dropping. So Baltimore open this game
• 10:20
  around a -, 120 Rd. Favorite and the public's
• 10:23
  saying. Orioles good team.
• 10:25
  Off a bad loss yesterday, they'll.
• 10:27
  Bounce back and win today. Right, kind of a bit.
• 10:29
  Of a gambler's fallacy or this team is due.
• 10:31
  Or they have to bounce. Back kind of that, you know,
• 10:34
  opinion based approach that you never really.
• 10:35
  Want to get behind Go? Get behind with the market.
• 10:38
  Is telling you what's going on. So even though. 71% of bets are
• 10:42
  on Baltimore. They're the big public play
• 10:43
  tonight. The lines falling away from
• 10:45
  them, They open -120 they're down to -115 -, 110 So you have
• 10:50
  this line going. Away from the O's even though
• 10:52
  they're getting. Nearly three out of four bets.
• 10:54
  You. Guys know what that is?
• 10:57
  RLM reverse line movement Publix on Baltimore yet lines going.
• 11:00
  To Cleveland. Cleveland open getting.
• 11:02
  Plus 1/10. Similar to that KC.
• 11:04
  Game we just talked about. Now they're about even money.
• 11:07
  At around plus 100 or you know, some shops around -1 O 5.
• 11:10
  Again, shop around. Try to get as close to even
• 11:12
  money as you can. Cleveland is one of the top.
• 11:15
  Contrarian plays of the day. This is one of the most heavily
• 11:17
  bet. Games of the night and they're
• 11:18
  only getting 29. Percent of bets, so just from a
• 11:21
  bet against. The drunk guys at the.
• 11:22
  Bar on a Friday. Night sweating the O's I want to
• 11:25
  be with Cleveland. Also we have the guardians
• 11:27
  correlative betting. Dog high total there.
• 11:29
  Dog in this one. Total in this game is 9 some.
• 11:32
  Shops even juiced up 9. Over -115 so more expected run
• 11:36
  scored, more variants, more upset opportunities.
• 11:40
  Guardians, by the way. 34 and 15 at home this year.
• 11:42
  That's the best home record in baseball, so they've played
• 11:45
  very, very well. It's not Jacobs Field anymore.
• 11:47
  What is it? Progressive Field.
• 11:49
  Anyway, Guardians are also three and one against Baltimore, so
• 11:53
  they've had their number. Hopefully that continues here
• 11:55
  tonight and. I'm going to really bank on the
• 11:57
  Guardians pitching. They have the better bullpen.
• 12:00
  They have the best. Bullpen in baseball two point.
• 12:02
  47 ERAE. RA for the Orioles. 3.94.
• 12:06
  In the pen, so hopefully if it's a tight game, we have Cleveland,
• 12:09
  you know, holding down a lead and.
• 12:10
  Baltimore may be coughing up. A lead or a close?
• 12:13
  Game giving it up, and over the last 10 games in particular.
• 12:16
  Cleveland's overall team ERA 3.3. 4 Baltimore's. 5.26.
• 12:22
  So this feels like hey. It's got to be.
• 12:23
  Baltimore, they got blown out. Yesterday, they're a good team.
• 12:25
  They got to win today. But Nope.
• 12:28
  Publix all over Baltimore, lines dropping toward the guardians.
• 12:30
  I'm going Guardians. Here, give me Cleveland.
• 12:33
  I got them at +100. Keep on cruising, this was kind
• 12:37
  of a late. Addition for me because we had a
• 12:38
  pitching. Change and this is very
• 12:39
  important. This is a. 7:10 PM Eastern.
• 12:42
  Time first pitch between the San Francisco Giants and the
• 12:44
  Cincinnati Reds. Now, originally we were
• 12:48
  expecting Kyle Harrison. Lefty.
• 12:51
  To start for San Francisco. But there was a late early
• 12:54
  afternoon, later afternoon adjustment.
• 12:55
  Maybe it was around. Like 1:00.
• 12:57
  Where actually Blake. Snell is going to start this
• 13:00
  game. So once we saw.
• 13:02
  That Harrison was out and. Snell was going to start.
• 13:04
  You saw a massive adjustment in favor of San.
• 13:06
  Francisco because this game opened.
• 13:09
  Cincinnati favorite Cincinnati was around -120.
• 13:12
  Now we flip to. San Fran -125 Some shops.
• 13:16
  Even going up closer. To -130 so.
• 13:18
  That's notable to me because as soon as you get.
• 13:21
  A pitching change like that. You know, you got to remember
• 13:23
  the wise guys who bet. Professionally bet for a living.
• 13:26
  They're, you know, making moves as soon as you get a, a pitching
• 13:30
  change, so. The minute they saw Snell
• 13:32
  obviously getting the start here in favor of Harrison, boom,
• 13:35
  massive line adjustment. The odds makers shifted the line
• 13:38
  based on the pitching change, but then wise guys pounded it in
• 13:41
  San Francisco. Moving that line in favor of the
• 13:44
  G men. And if you.
• 13:45
  Look at the stats here. Like you might be like.
• 13:47
  Blake Snell. He's O and.
• 13:48
  Three with a 5 point. One O ERA, you know, what's the
• 13:51
  deal? But actually a.
• 13:53
  Little bit deceiving Snell, who signed late I.
• 13:55
  Think Scott Boris kind of screwed him.
• 13:57
  Even though he did get. You know, decent deal he didn't
• 13:59
  get the. Long term deal he wanted.
• 14:01
  Was it 2 years like? 60 million, something like that.
• 14:04
  Started off really bad. Because he didn't.
• 14:05
  Have a spring training, but in the month of July, Blake Snell
• 14:08
  made. Four starts.
• 14:10
  Guess what his era was? 0.75.
• 14:13
  This guy was the the balls, nails, whatever you want to call
• 14:17
  it. In the month of July. 24 innings
• 14:19
  pitched. Only gave up two earned runs so
• 14:22
  I want to get behind Snell looks like.
• 14:23
  He kind of found his. Juju again, he'll be opposed.
• 14:26
  By Andrew Abbott, another lefty, he's nine and seven with a 3.38
• 14:30
  DRA. But a lot of angles now are
• 14:32
  lighting up or system matches are lighting up with San Fran.
• 14:35
  So they are a non division favorite.
• 14:36
  Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team
• 14:40
  also. We have Rd. favorite with.
• 14:43
  Steam. Getting $0.10 or more.
• 14:45
  We have. Both teams are below 5. 100 Take
• 14:48
  the favorite. That's also around a 60% system
• 14:50
  match. And let's see both.
• 14:54
  Had the day off take. The favorite?
• 14:55
  That's 61. Percent favorite off a loss.
• 14:57
  Opponent off a win. Another system match.
• 15:00
  Or actually, I guess technically.
• 15:01
  That wouldn't match. Because San Francisco.
• 15:03
  Won their last game. But either.
• 15:04
  Way you're getting a lot of system matches lighting up on
• 15:08
  San Francisco offensively. Hopefully the bats come to life
• 15:11
  for the G men. The G.
• 15:13
  Men. Hitting 244 in the year.
• 15:15
  Versus 2. 30 for Cincinnati and in particular.
• 15:18
  Once again we got 2. Lefties Snell against Abbott San
• 15:21
  Francisco is. Hitting 263 against lefties this
• 15:24
  year. That's the 6th best.
• 15:26
  Average against southpaws. Cincinnati's only.
• 15:28
  Hitting 234 against lefties. That's 24th in baseball.
• 15:32
  San Fran is 2 and one head to head against Cincy this year.
• 15:35
  So I'll take that. And the last 10 San Fran, 6:00
• 15:38
  and 4:00. They're hitting 253.
• 15:40
  With a 3.21 ERA. Since he's five and five, only
• 15:43
  hitting 220. With a 3.93 ERA, so San Fran is
• 15:47
  playing better as of late. They got their ace on the bump
• 15:50
  who was great in July, the lines moving in their favor and
• 15:53
  they're pretty good hitters against lefties.
• 15:55
  Knock on wood. Hope that continues.
• 15:57
  So again, I didn't really have this game, you know, lighting up
• 16:00
  for me throughout the morning. But as soon as.
• 16:02
  Snell came in there. Boom.
• 16:03
  Ton of steam I. Want to be with that sharp
• 16:05
  movement? I'm going with San Francisco.
• 16:07
  Shop around. I got San Fran at -125 Some
• 16:10
  shops are inching up further toward -130 Last bit of the
• 16:15
  night, 8:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 16:17
  Between Tampa Bay and Houston. Now going into this one first of
• 16:21
  a three-game series. The rays are 50. 5 and 53 They
• 16:25
  just split A2 game series against the Marlins.
• 16:27
  Although they did lose that. Finale.
• 16:29
  Six to two as a. -210 Favorite. This is how baseball is crazy.
• 16:34
  What was it? Taj Bradley?
• 16:35
  Guys been awesome, he got. Lit up by the lowly Marlins, so.
• 16:38
  That's baseball for you. Anyway, the Astros. 56 and 52.
• 16:42
  They just dropped. However, two or three against
• 16:44
  the Pirates. We did avoid the sweep though
• 16:45
  with A5 to. Four win in the series finale on
• 16:48
  Wednesday, cashing as a -, 200 home favorite.
• 16:51
  So pitching match up for tonight, the Rays are going to
• 16:53
  go with Rady Shane Baz. He's O and one with a 3.66 ERA.
• 16:58
  Astros, meanwhile, they're going to tap newly.
• 17:00
  Acquired lefty, you say? Kikuchi who?
• 17:03
  They picked up at the. Deadline from the Blue Jays.
• 17:05
  He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 4.75 ERA.
• 17:07
  What? Have we seen across the market
• 17:09
  here? Well, good sharp steam.
• 17:11
  In favor of the strose, I'm going strose guys.
• 17:14
  Houston Astros. Open as low as a -. 140 home
• 17:16
  favorite they've now been bet up to -150.
• 17:19
  Five, I see some shops. Even going a.
• 17:21
  Little bit further. Toward -160 so pretty much one
• 17:24
  sided movement. All in favor of Houston.
• 17:27
  Tells me smart money here is. Laying it with the Strohs.
• 17:29
  Now they're getting. Around 80%.
• 17:31
  Of bets in dollars, so kind of a public and sharp pro and Joe
• 17:35
  that split not just public but also respected money, but they
• 17:38
  have a lot of supplementary. Factors that are kind of.
• 17:41
  Ticking off their box, checking off boxes.
• 17:43
  And trying to. Build a case.
• 17:45
  Why? Why One bet, Houston?
• 17:47
  Here's one of them. Correlative betting favorite,
• 17:49
  low total. They're on a minus. 155 - 160
• 17:52
  favorite total is. 7 1/2. It actually.
• 17:54
  Fell at some shops 8 down to 7 1/2 so mention this a lot on the
• 17:59
  pod, but when you have the total dropping in the line, moving
• 18:01
  toward the favorite, that's a good angle.
• 18:03
  There typically that's a. Good sign for the favorite to
• 18:05
  win in a low scoring game also. We have the non division.
• 18:10
  Favorite. So Houston obviously from the.
• 18:12
  ALS Tampa Bay, AL East. The lack of familiarity
• 18:14
  benefiting quote UN quote the better team system match here.
• 18:18
  Both favorites coming. Off a day off, take the
• 18:20
  favorite. Very simple, but it's. 61%.
• 18:23
  Since 2020. Big sample.
• 18:25
  Size. And hopefully.
• 18:26
  The bats of Houston. Come to play tonight.
• 18:28
  Kikuchi has a good open, a good debut with the Stroh's but.
• 18:31
  Houston's. Bats, they're hitting 260.
• 18:33
  One with 123 homers. 502 runs scored.
• 18:38
  Tampa's only hitting 234 with 102.
• 18:40
  Homers, 432 runs scored. So we got a line move.
• 18:44
  Toward Houston, we got a non division.
• 18:47
  Favorite we have a. Correlative betting favorite,
• 18:49
  low total, We have better bats and we have the total dropping
• 18:53
  with the line moving. Toward the favorite so add it
• 18:55
  all up guys I. Think we have an opportunity to
• 18:57
  sweat the Strohs tonight? So I'm going Astros shop around.
• 19:00
  I got the Strohs at -155. So Kansas City and Cleveland
• 19:05
  both at around even money. And then we have San Fran -125
• 19:09
  -? 130 and the aforementioned
• 19:11
  Houston Astros around -150? Five.
• 19:14
  Can we get three out of four? That is the goal.
• 19:17
  Now to my. Favorite topic to discuss on
• 19:20
  Friday? All systems Go pods.
• 19:22
  That's right. Biting little bit of UFC who
• 19:26
  loves sweating UFC raise your hand.
• 19:28
  Something about UFC, the sweat. Is unparalleled.
• 19:31
  And it's only once a week you pick out.
• 19:32
  One bout that matches, you know our system.
• 19:35
  I I wouldn't change it for anything.
• 19:36
  I always get excited. To talk.
• 19:38
  Friday UFC and then. Sweat with you guys on a big
• 19:41
  Saturday. So with that being said.
• 19:43
  Let's go to Abu Dhabi. It is very.
• 19:46
  Very far away, but we're going to go there and we're going to
• 19:48
  focus on. A lightweight bout what I like.
• 19:51
  About this one, I mentioned it at the outset.
• 19:53
  I'm going to my buddy Fed's party.
• 19:55
  With all the boys and all the spouses.
• 19:58
  And and all the kids and dogs. It's going to be a lot of fun.
• 20:01
  Anytime we get together, it's like, OK, who's bringing the hot
• 20:04
  dogs, who's bringing the burgers?
• 20:06
  You know who's got the dessert, who's got the beers, who's got
• 20:09
  the other? Things that I won't mention, but
• 20:11
  I'm very much looking forward to this one because we have someone
• 20:14
  who's checking off pretty much every box so.
• 20:17
  For those who are new to UFC. If you've been grinding.
• 20:20
  With us, you know this. What I always mentioned.
• 20:22
  But we do have new people listening to the pod.
• 20:23
  So I think it's important #1 when?
• 20:25
  It comes to UFC. I try not to have any bias
• 20:28
  whatsoever and. Like we do with every sport,
• 20:31
  leave your bias at the door. What's the?
• 20:33
  Market doing UFC in particular, we have come up with a model
• 20:38
  basically. I'm not reinventing.
• 20:40
  The wheel. I'm not Stephen.
• 20:41
  Hawking or Albert Einstein here, but our model.
• 20:46
  Is looking to combine the. Tail the tape Advantages.
• 20:48
  With what the markets doing. So what does that mean?
• 20:50
  It means that when I get this e-mail from.
• 20:53
  John Ewing, my buddy at. BET MGM every Friday morning.
• 20:57
  I look. For what?
• 20:58
  The market. Is telling me.
• 20:59
  And then I go look. At the tail of the tape and if.
• 21:01
  Those kind of jive together and then I also look at some other
• 21:04
  supplementary. Factors that we'll get to.
• 21:06
  Boom, we've made. A case to go get.
• 21:08
  Down in the Octagon so. Little refresher, What do we
• 21:11
  look for? We look for a fighter who is.
• 21:12
  Younger, taller, has a longer reach.
• 21:16
  But more importantly, or as important, if not more
• 21:18
  importantly. Has a line.
• 21:19
  Move in their favor. So the lines going in their
• 21:21
  direction tells me smart money's on their side and really
• 21:24
  importantly, a great. Bet split.
• 21:26
  So a low percentage of bets along with a high percentage of
• 21:29
  dollars. So without further ado, there is
• 21:32
  one bout. And this bout is?
• 21:34
  On the main card starts at 3:00 tomorrow.
• 21:37
  On ABC. It is a lightweight.
• 21:39
  Bout between Joel Alvarez. And Elvis Brenner, you know who?
• 21:44
  We're going with Joel Alvarez, baby.
• 21:47
  Let's go. Mr. Alvarez, Why do I like Joel
• 21:50
  Alvarez? Well, I don't like him because
• 21:51
  of my opinion. I like him because of.
• 21:53
  He's matching our model. That we just talked about.
• 21:55
  So let's start off with the market Joel Alvarez opened.
• 21:59
  As a -, 140. Favorite he.
• 22:01
  Is now a -, 1. 75 favorite, so boom, first box we're checking
• 22:05
  off. Line has moved.
• 22:06
  Toward Joel Alvarez, second box bet splits the tickets.
• 22:11
  Are almost down the middle 53% of bets are on Alvarez, so very,
• 22:15
  very slight tiny little lean, but Alvarez is getting. 80% of
• 22:19
  dollars. So only. 53% bets.
• 22:22
  But 80? Percent dollars, so lines.
• 22:24
  Moving in his favor. 5050 line move.
• 22:27
  With a great low bets, higher dollars bet split so I love
• 22:30
  that. Now he is not younger.
• 22:33
  I don't love this. He's 31 years old.
• 22:36
  His opponent is 26 now. One thing someone told me a long
• 22:40
  time. Ago is fade fighters who are 35
• 22:42
  or older, so. Luckily, he's not that old.
• 22:44
  Like I'm 37 so. You know, I somewhat take.
• 22:47
  Offense to fading. Fighters 35 or older.
• 22:50
  The whole point being though, 31 still kind of in the prime.
• 22:52
  Of your career, the other. Angles that we like though.
• 22:55
  Even though Alvarez is a few years older.
• 22:58
  He's 6 foot 2. His opponent is five.
• 23:01
  Foot eight, that is a big height advantage.
• 23:04
  He has a. 77 inch reach. His opponent has a 72 1/2 inch
• 23:08
  reach. So even though we don't have the
• 23:09
  youth advantage he got, we have a big height advantage, we have
• 23:12
  a big reach. Advantage as well as the.
• 23:15
  Line move and the great bet splits and Alvarez's favor.
• 23:19
  And then also if you dig a little deeper.
• 23:20
  We're checking off some other boxes, so one would be.
• 23:23
  Punishment. Who takes more punishment?
• 23:26
  The angle here. Is to bet against Brenner.
• 23:29
  Because Brenner is. Absorbing 4.82.
• 23:32
  Significant strikes per minute. Versus our guy Alvarez.
• 23:36
  Taking in 3.3. Seven significant strikes per
• 23:39
  minute, so whole point being? Alvarez is a better job.
• 23:42
  Of taking less punishment, Brenner takes a lot of
• 23:44
  punishment. Also, our guy Alvarez is what
• 23:48
  who is what is known as a. Submission expert.
• 23:50
  This guy has got a ton of submissions.
• 23:53
  Guillotine. Choke there was.
• 23:55
  He won. His last bout.
• 23:56
  With a choke that I never heard of.
• 23:59
  DRS choke. I forgot what it is you guys.
• 24:02
  Might know anyway, he's a submission expert.
• 24:05
  He. Goes for. 1.3 submissions every
• 24:08
  15 minutes. His opponent?
• 24:11
  Brenner only 1/2 submission every 15 minutes.
• 24:14
  So we can get a. Submission.
• 24:16
  Get get Brenner to tap out. That could be a big advantage
• 24:19
  for us, for Alvarez. Not only is a great submission
• 24:22
  expert. But he's a great striker.
• 24:23
  He's a much more technical fighter and he's faced superior
• 24:27
  competition. I put a lot of stock into that.
• 24:29
  I was reading about Alvarez. He only fights like once a year
• 24:32
  so you can look at that. One of two ways.
• 24:33
  One is he's healthy. Rested, ready to go.
• 24:36
  You may say rest. Versus Rust, like Brenner,
• 24:39
  fights more often. But I will take that you know
• 24:42
  one. Fight a year as.
• 24:44
  Hey, almost like us only bet in one.
• 24:46
  UFC about a week, you know, maybe you.
• 24:48
  Put more stock into that. As a rested or.
• 24:51
  Game plan advantage. He's also coming off a win.
• 24:54
  Brenner is coming off a loss and.
• 24:57
  Also, he's the better grappler, so these are kind.
• 24:59
  Of the things that I'm picking up on, he takes less punishment.
• 25:02
  He's a submission. Expert.
• 25:04
  He's a better striker. He's more technical, he's face.
• 25:06
  Better competition. He's the better grappler.
• 25:08
  He's taller, he's got a longer reach, he's got a line.
• 25:11
  Move. He's got a great.
• 25:12
  Bet split. I mean other.
• 25:14
  Than him being 31. And Brenner being 26.
• 25:17
  That's the that's the only. Box that we're not checking off,
• 25:21
  but as I mentioned, at least he's not 30.
• 25:22
  Five or older. So I think we have a case here,
• 25:24
  guys to bet Joel Alvarez. To win this bout, shop around.
• 25:29
  You might be able to find him around -165 -, 170.
• 25:33
  I bet MGM right now he's -175 but I was able to find a -, 165,
• 25:37
  so I'm going with Joel. Alvarez.
• 25:39
  Biting in the UFC to hopefully get.
• 25:42
  A win for us and extend our win streak to eight straight.
• 25:46
  Let's go. Alvarez.
• 25:47
  Joel Alvarez. On the Money Line at -165 -,
• 25:51
  170. So that about does it for
• 25:53
  episode. 89 of the all. Systems go sports betting.
• 25:56
  Podcast powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 25:59
  where I ask a favor of you. Could you please make my day?
• 26:03
  Make me very happy. And give this podcast a 5 star
• 26:06
  review really would be. Awesome to help us rise up the
• 26:09
  ranks. Gain more credibility.
• 26:11
  Gain more. Eyeballs if you want to
• 26:12
  recommend the pod to a friend or maybe.
• 26:14
  Somebody who doesn't bet UFC. Or loves it and doesn't.
• 26:17
  Cash too many tickets, hey? There's this guy.
• 26:20
  I'm listening. To he's got a decent.
• 26:21
  Model we'd be cashing tickets. Oh, what is it?
• 26:23
  Oh it's the all systems go pod boom.
• 26:25
  I would love that if there's an option to follow the pod.
• 26:28
  That'll be great as well because you get alerted as.
• 26:30
  Soon as a new pod. Drops.
• 26:31
  But seriously guys? Thank you for listening each.
• 26:33
  Day on the pod. And if you could give this pod a
• 26:35
  5 star review. On Spotify, iTunes, whatever
• 26:38
  other. Platform you use.
• 26:40
  It would really mean a lot to. Me, so I appreciate you.
• 26:41
  Thank you SO. Much secondly, if you enjoy.
• 26:44
  This pod, this style. Of breakdown, no opinion, no.
• 26:48
  Oh, I think, I want. I hope this will happen.
• 26:50
  This is going to happen. No, no, no.
• 26:52
  What's the market doing? No.
• 26:53
  Parlays. No 50.
• 26:55
  Unit bombs, flat betting, grinding.
• 26:58
  That's that's really the. Way to go long term.
• 27:01
  But if this style. Of betting, reading the market.
• 27:03
  Being a data-driven better appeals to you.
• 27:05
  Well, guess what? I wrote a book on how.
• 27:08
  To be a data. Driven bettor so if.
• 27:09
  You want to learn more about data-driven betting?
• 27:11
  Or you want to. Buy a copy.
• 27:12
  And just support the team. Give it to a buddy.
• 27:14
  Of yours. I would very much appreciate.
• 27:16
  It all you. Got to do is go to.
• 27:17
  Amazon.com. And type in the.
• 27:19
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 27:22
  Once you get that book. You're going to get a lot of
• 27:25
  great information. How lines are set, how and why
• 27:27
  they move. How to read line movement.
• 27:29
  How to locate sharp action, How to place a bet in person or
• 27:31
  online, How to shop for the best line, How to set up a bankroll
• 27:34
  management plan, All included in the Everything Guide to Sports.
• 27:38
  Betting so pick up a copy. For you or for a friend.
• 27:40
  Again, when I see at the book, I'll sign it for you.
• 27:43
  I'll. Buy you a beer or I'll buy you
• 27:44
  a. Ginger ale.
• 27:45
  If you don't drink, that's fine too.
• 27:47
  But seriously guys, if you already pick one up.
• 27:48
  Thank you, it means a lot to me. Lastly, have you signed up?
• 27:52
  For a free. Trial 7 day free trial of juice.
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  Reel or Rhythm, My two favorite sports betting apps.
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  Why do I like them so much? Well, one, they help me power.
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  This podcast, but two. They help you win.
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  And they help you win because they focus on.
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  Data AI backed betting. Picks and predictions and
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  models, as well as a bunch of other.
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  Great, useful features. So let's start with rhythm.
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  Rhythm actually has their NFL models and predictions that are
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  now live for Week 1 we're waiting for.
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  WNBA to come back golf. Is great with rhythm as well.
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  Rhythm has the. AI backed models and.
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  Predictions to help you win. And get ready for player props.
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  Because I can't wait to. Bet some rhythm recommended
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  player props. Once week 1 rolls around.
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  And then of course, Juice Reel. Great with their Robo Jackson
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  best bet picks that come. Out each day at noon.
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  As well as arbitrage opportunities.
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  Bet certain amount on this book. Certain amount at that book.
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  Boom, you're guaranteed. 5 bucks. 6 bucks May you might be
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  like Josh. Who cares?
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  5 bucks. It's not the point.
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  The point is. It helps you win, helps you make
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  money. And then also.
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  Looking at the sharp mush opportunities syncing your
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  sports book? It's a great app to add to your
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  arsenal, so both Juice Reel and Rhythm, I want you guys to go
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  sign up, but you got to do a specific.
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  Way click the custom link that's located in the bio.
• 29:05
  Description of this podcast whether you're on Spotify,
• 29:07
  iTunes, it'll give you a description of this pod.
• 29:10
  Hey. Episode 89 Josh has a. 5 pack of
• 29:13
  sweats yadda yadda yadda. Scroll down, you're going to see
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  the links for Juice Reel and for.
• 29:19
  Rhythm. And once you sign up, I think
• 29:21
  you're. Going to enjoy it so go sign up.
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  For the rhythm and juice. Reel 7 day free trial.
• 29:25
  Well, that about does it, everybody.
• 29:26
  Last two things to tell you #1. Whether I.
• 29:29
  See you at the Borgata in Atlantic City Twin.
• 29:32
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire
• 29:33
  Foxwoods. Or Mohegan.
• 29:34
  Sun down in Connecticut. At the.
• 29:36
  Encore in Boston or Plainridge? Park Casino or MGM.
• 29:39
  Springfield and my neck of. The woods in Massachusetts.
• 29:41
  Or of course. Out in the desert, where the
• 29:43
  true grinders get down. Where Billy Walter sends his.
• 29:45
  Number runners where the. Lowest juice possible.
• 29:47
  Is found at the South point minus one O 5.
• 29:49
  You love it. Or of course, jumping in the.
• 29:51
  Stadium swim pool when he. Cashed a big ticket at Circa.
• 29:54
  Whoever it may be. You're going to walk up to me?
• 29:57
  You're going to show me a beautiful.
• 29:58
  Guardians ticket from last night.
• 30:00
  An amazing Rockies ticket. Little plus money, big comeback.
• 30:03
  In the 10th. 9th and 10th inning, whatever.
• 30:06
  You do. Or you can also show me the
• 30:08
  Texans money line. I'll take a voided bet that
• 30:10
  could have lost. Fine by me.
• 30:12
  Don't show me the Cardinals ticket.
• 30:13
  Ryan Helsley. Are you kidding me?
• 30:15
  Blowing that save last night. That was pathetic.
• 30:17
  Anyway, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 30:19
  We're going to. Post about the book Sweat Sharp
• 30:22
  and Train Plays. All night long.
• 30:24
  So I wish you the best luck everyone.
• 30:25
  Have a fantastic weekend reminder.
• 30:27
  No pods on the weekend, but you can check my Twitter.
• 30:30
  Feed. Give me a.
• 30:31
  Follow at Josh under Score Insights.
• 30:33
  I will be writing sharp reports for visen.com for MLB for
• 30:37
  Saturday and Sunday, so you can sweat along with me this
• 30:39
  weekend, but I. Wish you the best of.
• 30:41
  Luck in my parting words, as always.
• 30:42
  Stay sharp. Stay.
• 30:44
  Contrarian Bet against the public.
• 30:46
  Place yourself on the side. Of the house always be.
• 30:47
  With the smart money never against it.
• 30:50
  Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
• 30:53
  If if you guys haven't realized yet and you better realize it
• 30:55
  quickly, betting's hard. And ain't easy.
• 30:58
  Sometimes sharp plays lose, but here's the thing, even though
• 31:01
  that may happen in a one off. If we can consistently stay
• 31:03
  true. To the model that with our head
• 31:05
  and not our heart and go long term against the public with the
• 31:09
  House. With the pros flat bet avoid.
• 31:12
  Parlays and get that closing line value.
• 31:14
  If we can do that, we're going to be.
• 31:15
  Successful sports betters. So let's have a good.
• 31:17
  Night in MLB tonight, guys, then let's see if we can.
• 31:20
  Get a big winner with our buddy Alvarez.
• 31:22
  And the UFC tomorrow biting. And the Octagon.
• 31:25
  Have a great weekend everybody. I'll see you back on Monday for
• 31:28
  episode. 90 of the all systems. Go.
• 31:30
  Sports betting podcast powered by.
• 31:32
  Rhythm, Have a great Friday. And an even better weekend.
• 31:35
  Good luck guys.