Latest / The Extra Point / Week 12 Preview | Updated CFP Projections, Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Oklahoma, and more

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Week 12 Preview | Updated CFP Projections, Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Oklahoma, and more · The Extra Point

0:00
What's up y'all? You're listening to the extra
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point college football podcast. I'm your host Jacob Karn is
0:05
joined as always by my Co host Daniel Hammock.
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Daniel, we have made it to week 12.
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Got real games. We've got coaching searches.
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We've got playoff rankings. We there's only a few games
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left. And here's the crazy part,
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Daniel is I heard this stat from, I think it was, it was
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either Josh Pate or Rusty Menzel.
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Hartina, get him confused. One has similar, 1 does not.
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Yeah, very similar for the two teams that will play for the
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national championship. As of today, we are.
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It has been 71 days since the first Saturday of the college
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football season, and there are 70 days until national
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championship Monday night. Wow.
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Only halfway through as far as calendar days, only halfway
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through the season for two teams.
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So long way to go. A lot of football left, a lot of
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important football left. Daniel, how you doing?
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Fired up, All right, I am clinging to every Saturday as it
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comes and I am trying to watch every window of game and I'm
1:05
just cherishing it, dude. There's games where I'm like, if
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this happened in May, I would kill for this game right now.
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So I am going to watch this game and if I miss part of it, I'm
1:16
gonna watch the highlights and get the full story.
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And that's what it's all about. On deck, we've got our updated
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College Football Playoff projections.
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We are projecting how we think the rest of the season will go.
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Who we think will be in the final College Football Playoff,
1:32
not who we think would be in today.
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We'll do that at the top of the show. 2 questions we've got
1:37
after this past weekend. We'll go through our XPR,
1:40
compare it to the College Football Playoff committee and
1:44
what they had Tuesday night. Three games we're watching, 3U
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matchups to watch. We'll end with our 4 picks
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against the spread, We've got Pitt, Notre Dame, Alabama,
1:53
Oklahoma, USC, Iowa, Georgia, Texas on deck.
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Daniel, let's let's get us started.
2:00
I want to hear your updated College Football Playoff
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projection. I have one spot left that I need
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your help deciding. It's going to be a fun scenario,
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but I want you to start. Give me your one through 12 in
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order. Do you have records too or you
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just kind of you just kind of see them?
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I mean, I can give you the losses off the top of my head
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pretty easily. Either way, but exceeding.
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For the reasoning in order for the for the seeding purposes,
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that's what I did. So all right, I'll roll through
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the number one. I have Ohio State, I think
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they're going to end the season undefeated.
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I think they're going to go through, even though we're going
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to pick Michigan against them, we're on record.
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Michigan will beat Ohio State. My projection is that they will
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beat them as of right now because we're not on that week.
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So they're undefeated. Then they win the Big 10.
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So undefeated. Ohio State #2 I have Alabama, I
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think they run the rest of the table and win the SEC
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Championship game #3 I have Indiana who runs the rest of the
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table, loses the Big 10 championship game.
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So just the one lost, 12 and one.
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Texas A and MI have them at 12:00 and 1:00 as well.
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Or yeah. So they go 12 in a regular
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season and then lose to Alabama as the four seed.
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Then I have Georgia 11 and 1 rounding out the rest of the
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year. I have Texas Tech, I have them
3:26
winning out Oregon. They have to win out for them to
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be where I have them at 7. Ole Miss, of course they have to
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win out. Notre Dame, They've had to win
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out since Week 2. Built.
3:38
I have this is kind of my biggest.
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OK, I have them beating Tennessee.
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They have to be 10 and two to go, so they have to win out.
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They got to. Win out that.
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That win against Auburn was really big.
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Kind of having to come from behind.
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Getting Auburn's best shot offensively this year.
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I think that's the best offensive game Auburn's played
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all year. Vanderbilt had to come back.
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So that's my 10 seed. If you're doing the math, that
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leaves an ACC champion and Group of 6 champs.
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So at 11, Pittsburgh ACC champ, things have changed.
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Florida State's out of it for me.
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They're out at this point, I think.
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Florida State, are we sure? Are we sure?
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So put me, put me down. I'm off the FSU for this season,
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OK. For right now, I don't think I
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don't see a path for Florida State.
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So they're out, unfortunately, and then Tulane, they're back.
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OK. Since I was looking, I think
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that they they've got 2 losses. That's a bummer.
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So it's not going to look as great, but the good news for
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them? When you're in.
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When out win the championship, they're in.
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They've got a path. I just think that John Summerall
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quarter, you know, quarterback Ritz Claffy and all all those
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guys, I think that they are primed for it, I guess in the
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best way. But yeah, that's me.
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I'm putting you on the spot here.
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You don't have to go through every matchup.
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If you had to pick your national champion today, who are you
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picking? Jake.
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I know I didn't ask you this pre show.
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Yeah Spot. You want to think about it while
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I go through my bracket. Yeah, I I'll think about it.
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I'll think about it. All right, Daniel at the one
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seed. I've got Indiana at 13 and O all
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right, two seed wow, Alabama 12 and one SEC champs.
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Here's where she she can start to see some picks towards the
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end of the year here three seed, I've got Georgia at 11 and two
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OK, losing the SEC runner up at the three seed.
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OK, four seed, Yeah. I've got Big 10 runner up Oregon
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at 11 and two, losing to Indiana twice, five seed Texas Tech 12
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and one Big 12 champs, 6 seed 11 and 1 Ohio State.
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Because Daniel, I'm a man of principle.
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I said I'm picking Michigan. Wow.
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And if Ohio State loses to Michigan, they will miss out in
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the Big 10 championship. And not only that, if Michigan
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wins their games before Ohio State, which is I need to look
6:03
it's they should win both their games, Michigan will actually
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finish ahead of them in the Big 10 standings, believe it or not.
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That's amazing. Wow is correct.
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So glad we did this. Yes 7 Texas A&M 11:00 and 1:00.
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OK. Ole Miss at 11 and one OK, so I
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think A&M loses one more game this season.
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Ole Miss one's out. All right, nine.
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Here's Ronnie some help, Daniel. I've got 2 spots here at 9:00
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and 10:00 for three teams. All right, based on the
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committee's what they've currently done, I've got 9.
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Notre Dame, 10:00 and 2:00. I've got one spot left, two
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teams. And I'm really, really curious.
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All right, a nine, three Texas that beats Texas A&M to end the
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undefeated season. So that would be a nine three
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Texas if we'd look a loss in the road against probably not a bowl
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team in Florida, A1 score loss on the road at Ohio State a
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whenever A&M and we'll talk later at the Georgia game.
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We'll for this scenario, they beat A&M or they go one and one
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regardless, you know what I mean?
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Like they go one and one, they're 93, all right, 93 Texas
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or A10 and two Michigan. That's.
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A win over Ohio State. With a win over Ohio State, so
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the head to head, here's the thing, they'd have two head to
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head opponents. Michigan will have beaten Ohio
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State at home. Texas will have lost Ohio State
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on the road. Texas will have beaten Oklahoma
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on a neutral. Michigan will have lost Oklahoma
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on the road. So one in one.
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And here's the thing, I think the committee recency matters
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because they're humans and to be honest, they're not that great
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at this right now, Daniel, I have 93 Texas over 10 and 3 / 10
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and two Michigan. Now, I think that nine wins is
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more impressive than Michigan's 10.
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So 10 seed, Texas, 11 seed. I've got Louisville out of the
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ACCI. Like it?
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12 seed USF at 11:00 and 2:00. Right now I pick Ohio State to
8:04
win it all, so I picked the win it all.
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They've looked like the best team so far.
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They've looked like the most complete team right now and I
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know they have the depth and talent to go win for these
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games. There's only a few teams on here
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that I still think. I mean, look, I'm having to come
8:19
around on Indiana because you know my logical brain and
8:24
watching what they're doing does not make sense.
8:26
But hey, credit to me. I'm putting them up here.
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I'm picking them to finish undefeated.
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I'm picking them to win the Big 10.
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If they're facing Oregon again, I'm picking Indiana again.
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I saw what they did on the road. So it's just I have a hard time
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still believing that that team can go win three games in the
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playoff against each of their top teams.
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So give me a high state right now.
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Yeah. They've looked like the best
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team this year. What about you?
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Man, it's tough. It's tough because I think Ohio
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State is probably the clearest answer, like for the reasons
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you've given. Also, if you look at just recent
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champions, you know, defense is extremely important and Ohio
9:00
State's had the best defense. Now, of course, adjusted for
9:03
opponent, all of that kind of stuff because there's been
9:05
several games where they are, you know, markedly like a huge
9:10
favorite. So but they've beaten them
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handily. So you can't you can only play
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who you play is so tough. I'm trying to think of who could
9:18
go on the run. I think, OK, I'll give you the a
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few teams that I think would could go on the run to win the
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championship. I think Ohio State, of course.
9:28
I think Alabama could. I think Georgia could.
9:32
I don't think Indiana could run the gamut.
9:34
I. See it you know I'm.
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Becoming more of a believer on A&M making the run than I was.
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I think like 3 weeks ago, I'm like, not even, you know, but
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now I'm kind of thinking A&M may be a little bit different than
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what we've expected. They've had a favorable schedule
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for a certain, you know, amount of the year, but I'm trying to
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see if there's another team. I don't think Oregon could do it
9:55
this year. I have a sneaky suspicion Texas
9:58
Tech could do more than what we think.
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I have a little bit more faith in them, you know, kind of doing
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a couple of things, man. Usual customers, though, Ohio
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State, Alabama, Georgia, Eenie meenie, miney, MO.
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I say I think Alabama could do this this year, right at this
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point. I could see it, see Alabama
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doing it and then forcing Nick Saban to come take the LSU job
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because he just can't stand to see someone else win a national
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championship after he did. That's great.
10:27
OK, you've got Bama. I almost picked Bama.
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I'm just. I'm just going with my eyes
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here. It's tough.
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I stay for now. It's tough.
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That's that's where I'm going. OK, Daniel, we've had a week of
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football this past weekend. 2 questions you've got moving
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forward. What's your first question?
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My first question is it's about like Big 10 versus the SEC in
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the playoff. So will the Big 10 get four
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teams in the cultural playoff or is it more likely 6?
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Like is it more likely that six SEC teams get in or 4 Big 10
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teams? Because I think that that line
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is kind of where, you know, you think about, you know, USC or
11:05
Michigan potentially sneaking in if if they can backdoor it and
11:11
Oregon not falling apart, you know, concerns at different at
11:15
different parts there. And then just the toughness of
11:17
getting a sixth team in for the SEC.
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I think 5 is still kind of tough, but I think that they're
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right there at 5 based on, you know, pretty resumes and not
11:28
having three losses. But you start getting to like
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your question before about potentially Texas being nine and
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three and being in as an at large team, like is there enough
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love from the committee for the SECI know that people will scrap
11:42
scream SEC bias from the rooftops?
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But like, I don't know, man, they get so bogged down about
11:48
losses and these these teams have played different schedules.
11:51
So I don't know for Big 10 teams versus 6 SEC teams because I
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think that's how the the math kind of works out when you've
11:59
got Notre Dame Group of 6 and then Big 12 ACC or both 11 bid
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league. Yeah, I, I'm curious to see that
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too. And mine, I've got more SEC than
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Big 10, but I could have it equal if I put Michigan in.
12:12
As of right now, I'll stay with the playoff.
12:14
Daniel, I'm mad because this got mentioned.
12:16
I heard it got mentioned on the playoff show.
12:19
I know Pate mentioned it. I wrote down a scenario on
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Monday and I was like, this can be great.
12:24
Only I've thought about this now.
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Now I've seen it. We've talked about.
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Is there a chance the ACC does not get a team in the playoff?
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And the answer is yes, there is a chance the ACC does not going
12:34
to team the playoff because right now Duke only has one loss
12:38
in conference and controls their own destiny in the ACC.
12:41
This does not take a lot to happen.
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Duke just needs to make like win the ACC.
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Wait, that's not crazy. They could actually not make the
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playoff. I thought that they were auto
12:50
bids. Yes, there are auto bids.
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There are five walk with me. There's five auto bids, all
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right, for the five highest ranked conference champs, all
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right, Duke has four losses. Only one of those are in
13:02
conference, all right. They control the road destiny.
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I guess the Duke needs. To happen for this to do it is
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Duke wins the ACC, you have the American champ, which is
13:12
currently ranked or could be ranked higher than Duke or I
13:15
mean, currently they are there's a there's a there's a team
13:17
retired than Duke right now in the CFP rankings, right?
13:21
James Madison has one loss. So if James Madison wins the
13:24
Sunbelt and is 12 and one and they're sitting there at 24 and
13:28
you know, USF for two lanes sitting there at 19 and Duke is
13:33
unranked. Now you have the five highest
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ranked conference champs, one of those not being the ACC champ to
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to me that's not especially at this point in the season,
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Daniel, this is not some out there wild 16 things need to
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happen. It's really like 3.
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So that like again, this is where I laugh at, you know,
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everyone's mocked the Big 10 proposal saying no, no more auto
13:59
bids. It's bad for the sport.
14:01
Why does the Big 10 at SEC need 4 guaranteed teams?
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Look, I'm a fan of a team in the power 4.
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I'm a I'm a fan of a team in the SEC and Big 10.
14:09
I'm saying no auto bids because I think those I just want the
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best teams in, right? But I think auto bids are better
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for these small conferences because guess what?
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ACC gets two teams in in that scenario.
14:18
There's a chance this year, Daniel with a 12 team playoff,
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the ACC get 0, which is nuts. So.
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That is so crazy. It's not.
14:26
Crazy. That's not crazy.
14:28
That's my first question. It's not.
14:29
That is pretty crazy. I mean, it's crazy that it's not
14:33
crazy. Exactly.
14:34
It's. Crazy if this is a possibility.
14:37
What needs to happen is not crazy for this to happen.
14:40
Yes, it would be insane if the ACC got left out of a 12 team
14:45
playoff. Yeah, cuz I thought someone was
14:48
trolling. Well, I I just, I was listening
14:51
to something I can't remember. I honestly can't remember what I
14:54
was listening to. I consume so much comfortable
14:57
content. And they had made a comment
14:59
about George Tech and you're noted George Tech hater, of
15:02
course, Jacob. And so they had said, yeah, I
15:06
think, you know, if George Georgia Tech loses to Georgia,
15:11
but then when's the ACC championship?
15:13
I think they're in the playoffs. And I was like, that's the
15:15
boldest take I've ever heard. There's an automatic bid.
15:18
So that being said, your your scenario is basically lining out
15:23
like, Hey, it has to be like a, you know, specific team.
15:26
Georgia Tech's been high ranked, high enough where a loss to
15:29
Georgia would not even be in the realm of them being lower ranked
15:33
than, you know, the two Group of 6 conferences.
15:37
So, but that's really funny because yeah, I was the other
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day. I was like, are they trolling
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them? Why is this even a conversation?
15:43
Does this person not know Ball? But apparently I may have not
15:46
known Ball myself. Looking myself in the mirror
15:50
right now. So.
15:51
I think, I think questioning whether or not Georgia Tech
15:55
would get if they win the conference is a little stupid.
15:57
They're in, yeah, they're they're ranked high enough.
15:59
Yeah. They would only have two losses.
16:01
OK. Daniel, what's your second
16:02
question? So in that same vein, we're
16:04
talking about Group of 6 a little bit, Group of Six playoff
16:08
contenders. Josh Pate brought this up a
16:12
couple years ago and it stuck with me.
16:14
And then playoff expanded, conferences expanded,
16:18
reorganized and realignment, all that kind of stuff.
16:22
I mean, I know busting with the boys made a NIT bracket for the
16:26
playoff, which I still think is stupid, like, let's just have
16:29
bowl games. But I do understand from a Group
16:33
of 6 perspective, like, dude, I'm a Kennesaw State grad.
16:38
I'd love to see them have a shot at doing something.
16:41
I mean, I'm pumped for a potential bowl game.
16:43
Trust me. Well, they've they've qualified
16:45
for a bowl game. But I mean, FCS, they had a
16:48
chance to go win a national championship.
16:50
They get here and there's two different sports happening for
16:54
the most part between, you know, the the the who's and The Who,
17:00
the the have nots. And I just wonder with this next
17:04
expansion of the playoff and update of, you know, what the
17:08
auto bids versus, you know, at large teams, would it just be
17:13
better at that point to also go ahead and create a group of six
17:18
playoff? And that way they can just have,
17:21
you know, G6 national champ. I mean, like, make it make it a
17:26
thing. And these teams are going to
17:28
continue to be on schedules of the the power 4.
17:31
But you know, they're going to be able to have something at the
17:35
end of the year where it's not just like a Invitational invite,
17:39
you know, to get their teeth kicked in by whoever the 5th
17:43
ranked seat is in the CFP. They can actually just go and be
17:48
in a separate category altogether.
17:49
I think it might help with roster stability, to be honest
17:52
with you. I think that there will be less
17:53
teams jumping because they'd have the opportunity to win a
17:56
championship right where they are, get developed and you might
17:59
see better football at that level.
18:01
Yeah, you and I have been on this for, I mean, as long as
18:05
we've heard about it like this, this.
18:06
I think it is ignorant to pretend that there are 130
18:12
something teams playing the same sport.
18:13
It's just impossible. There is a Major League and a
18:16
minor league in college football, even a Division 1
18:18
college football. I think not admitting that's a
18:21
little silly and I want group of 6 football and FCS football and
18:25
all these other things to thrive.
18:27
I don't know how we do that. Bill Conley has a great book out
18:30
right now called Ford Progress. He had, it's funny, he had a
18:33
chapter on football socialism, which was interesting that just
18:37
to sum it up, if every school gave 10% of their TV like
18:43
revenue deal and put it in the pot and then divided it up
18:48
evenly among the 130 something teams.
18:50
Basically you you could like triple the TV revenues from the
18:54
GG6 schools get and you would still get an increase in total
18:58
revenue from the P4 schools as well.
19:01
And which I thought is interesting because he's just
19:03
like, look in the because conference expansion just killed
19:07
the group of 6 and the transfer portal being free has killed
19:11
rosters in the group of 6. So I do think there's changes
19:13
that need to happen to stabilize those schools.
19:16
Because I mean, to use a slogan that EA Sports had whenever the
19:20
the football game came out, you know, re came back last year is
19:23
every school is someone's favorite team.
19:25
Every team is someone's favorite.
19:27
And I want the sport as a whole to still thrive.
19:30
And I don't know how you put the genie back in the bottle in some
19:33
of these areas, but I like where your head's at for AG six
19:36
playoff. You know, my second question,
19:39
what other sport, what other upsets or surprises are on the
19:44
horizon? It's too easy for us to sit here
19:47
and say, Yep, they went out, they went out, they went out,
19:51
they went out, they went out. It's November.
19:54
It's the longest month in college football.
19:56
Literally this year. There's five Saturdays in
19:58
November, so literally the longest.
19:59
But also, look, the cream will rise to the top of November.
20:03
So I think there's a way too much.
20:05
We just did it. There's way too much people
20:07
sitting around and going, OK, so when Ohio State's 13 and O&A&M
20:11
wins out and Bamba wins out and Georgia wins out in Indiana,
20:16
it's somebody's getting beat. So I'm excited to see who that
20:21
is, who's getting beat. It's college football, man.
20:23
I've watched way too many seasons of college football to
20:26
just count up all this chalk, and I'm doing it, too.
20:29
I can't predict it, so I'm excited to watch it happen.
20:32
I'm going to be down for Purdue beating Indiana on November
20:37
28th. OK, there you go.
20:40
Just put me down for that one. Maybe you can pick some more
20:43
strategic upsets there. Yeah.
20:45
OK. Daniel, our Week 12 XPR, if you
20:49
were watching on YouTube, which you should, you can see that on
20:53
screen right now, Daniel, we've got top five of Ohio State,
20:59
Indiana, Texas A&M, Oregon, and Alabama.
21:03
Only one difference there from the College Football Playoff
21:06
committee's rankings, of course, Oregon being at 8 and their
21:09
rankings 4IN ours, Daniel is looking at either XPR or the
21:14
College Football Playoff rankings.
21:17
What are there any surprises from the committee's rankings?
21:20
I had one that I wanted to talk about, which is Miami.
21:23
But look at looking at our XPR or the CFP.
21:26
What you got any big takeaways or teams you're keeping an eye
21:28
on? Any teams we're right about, the
21:30
committee's wrong about, or vice versa?
21:32
Yeah, it's tough because I think, well, we're both, you
21:36
know, you mentioned Miami, we're both have Miami as the highest
21:40
ranked ACC team. But I think that both of us
21:42
individually are like, I don't think that they have what, you
21:45
know, they need so much help to win the conference that it's
21:48
kind of a moot point. So it's almost like a lame duck
21:51
spot where they're may be power rated almost the highest or
21:55
they've qualified to be the highest ranked currently, But
21:58
you look at the map and it's like the only way that they can
22:01
make the playoff is if they win the ACC.
22:05
And their path is the least clear on winning the ACC at this
22:09
point. So that's interesting to me.
22:11
Miami I thought was interesting because you know, last week I
22:16
think they course correct this week.
22:18
I didn't do anything this past week that was that impressive.
22:20
But they moved up three spots and some of that was losses
22:25
other teams had. I just like I Miami went from 18
22:32
to 15. I thought they were too low last
22:34
week. So I felt like this was a course
22:36
correction because bottom line is they could be looking at
22:39
Daniel at the end of the year like we talked about there could
22:41
be attended to Miami that missed their conference championship
22:44
game and attended to Notre Dame who they have 6 spots higher.
22:48
It was 8 spots higher last week. Miami beat them head to head
22:52
week 1. And look, I'm going to sit here
22:55
and tell you I think Notre Dame's a better team right now.
22:57
I think Notre Dame's a better team overall right now.
22:59
But, and this is where, you know, head to head is not the
23:02
deciding factor, but I think it is a more than fair argument.
23:06
And that could be interesting at the end of the year, again, if
23:10
Notre Dame's sitting there at a nine seed in the playoff and
23:13
Miami's left out completely. I mean, the committee could have
23:17
absolutely forgotten that they played, because I forgot until
23:20
you said that. That's totally fair.
23:24
Phenomenal point that you've just made because I'm sitting
23:28
here like, Dang, that did happen.
23:31
No wonder I was so high on Miami earlier.
23:34
Man, that's right. Yeah, they, you know, they beat
23:37
Notre Dame and who they beat in week two, it was back-to-back.
23:41
It was 2 ranked wins Daniel. Florida State was ranked when
23:44
they beat him. Where are they?
23:46
I forget, Goodness, maybe I was thinking of Notre Dame's
23:50
back-to-back losses that. Was yeah cuz they lost to A and
23:52
MA. And M yeah, yeah, OK.
23:55
I think that was the only team. I was just like Oregon, we're
23:58
higher in Oregon. The power ratings love Oregon, I
24:00
love Oregon. Resume wise, I would put them
24:02
behind Ole Miss. Like my personal rankings.
24:04
I think I had about seven Yeah, ish.
24:07
Power ratings love Oregon. And I don't disagree.
24:10
At one point you and I both thought Oregon was the best team
24:12
in the country. They'll lose to Indiana.
24:15
I also had A and M AT2I respect Indiana's win at Penn State.
24:18
I'm treating it like Georgia's win against Florida, like some
24:22
of these other teams that like, you know, record doesn't show
24:25
it, but these are four and five star bodies.
24:27
Penn State had not given up on the season.
24:29
I mean, Bamas win over LSU, they got LSU best effort in that
24:32
game. So I still think A&M is a more I
24:35
I don't know. I was going to say I think a
24:37
more impressive win. Indiana's win over Oregon, Tex
24:40
A&M's win against Notre Dame, both very impressive.
24:43
I think it had that top three in any order, I think, and I had to
24:46
be OK with it. But yeah, Oregon, we had a
24:49
little bit higher. There's one of the team I wrote
24:51
down here. It was Nope, Notre Dame, my
24:55
group of six. I was just curious where they
24:57
were going to be. We've got USF at 25.
25:00
Committees got USF at 24. I think that's the right call
25:03
right now as far as the highest ranked G6 team.
25:07
Of course USF has the win against North Texas, lost
25:10
against Memphis, but Memphis has two losses now.
25:12
USF is only the loss against Miami.
25:16
They have a powerful win against the Florida team with a lot of
25:18
blue chips. Yeah, again, they went out and
25:22
they're in. It's looking like a match with
25:24
Tulane at the end of the year for that last spot.
25:27
So it doesn't really matter right now because when are that
25:30
game will be sitting there at the end and they will be the
25:33
highest ranked G6 champ. OK Daniel, we're not picking but
25:37
four games. What are three more games we're
25:39
not picking that you are excited to watch?
25:43
Yeah, I've got a few of them. So one of the teams is the one
25:46
you've mentioned as your ACC champion.
25:48
So Friday night, Louisville welcomes in Clemson.
25:52
This was just the ugly, sneaky, like 2 1/2 point line.
25:58
Clemson's just kind of hiding in tall grass, straight to pounce.
26:02
Like my Tiger tropes that I'm using here.
26:04
I think that they're going to, you know, I think Clemson is
26:09
going to try to ruin somebody's season and that somebody is
26:12
Louisville. I do like Louisville.
26:14
Obviously, we love their coach. Think that, you know, they're
26:17
they got a lot going for them. This is the game that kind of
26:20
has me nervous, which is why I did not have them as my ACC
26:23
champion. Just kind of watching that one.
26:26
Another one, ACC, dude, ACC is big this week and every week
26:31
because they kind of are the biggest wild card of the
26:34
playoff, I think. And Duke favorite against
26:37
Virginia at home laying 5 1/2 points.
26:41
So, you know, the outside world would tell you Virginia's a
26:44
better team. Duke, like you mentioned
26:46
earlier, controls their own destiny and could really wreak
26:50
havoc on this whole world that we know and love of college
26:54
football. And last one, dude, it's
26:56
Jacksonville State hate week for me personally.
26:59
So Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, they're trying to come up
27:03
with a rivalry name for this one cuz of course, Kennesaw State's
27:07
only been around for you know what, 10 years.
27:10
So they're trying to make this happen.
27:12
So I submitted the War of the South, but I don't know if
27:15
that's going to catch on or not. But nonetheless, these two teams
27:18
hate each other and Kansas State's a 3 1/2 point favorite.
27:21
And so that one's going to be good.
27:23
It's at Jacksonville State, it's actually got flexed to a major
27:27
network, it's ESPNU, and it's 8:00 at night instead of 4:00,
27:31
which means that I have to divert my attention away from
27:34
Georgia, Texas. Just kidding to watch this game,
27:37
but I will definitely watch the highlights from this one.
27:40
I've got another name suggestion I just thought of.
27:43
It you ready? Let's do it.
27:44
Yes. All right, it's a team from
27:46
Georgia. It's a team from Alabama, the
27:50
Deep South's youngest rivalry. I do like that one.
27:54
I that's good. I like that.
27:56
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's good. You submitted for your
27:58
consideration. Yeah, you'd submitted.
28:00
South youngest rivalry. I think that's good.
28:02
Dude. The 11 year old program for kid
28:04
is all state. I love it.
28:06
Yeah. That is good.
28:08
That is good. Maybe something with birds, you
28:10
know, Game of. Yeah, someone said the bird
28:12
fight or the the bird, I can't remember what it was the.
28:17
Rest of the nest, I don't know. Yeah, I'm, I'm trying stuff with
28:21
rhymes here. But anyway, that's good.
28:24
OK, Who was your Team of the Week for Week 11?
28:27
It was Texas A&M. This is their second time being
28:30
Team of the Week this year. For me, huge win.
28:33
And I just, you know, I think each week, each time they do
28:36
something like this, it's just more and more impressive.
28:38
So yeah, give me, give me the Aggies yet again.
28:42
Aggies, all right, Uniform match up of the week for Week 11 was
28:46
Alabama. LSU saw that coming from a mile
28:48
away. It's a helmet game.
28:51
It's elite. It's always good.
28:53
So it was fun to watch that one. If nothing else, I just admire
28:58
the uniforms on the field. The 3U matchups for this week,
29:01
Daniel, we've got Georgia, Texas.
29:06
I saw what this looked like last year on the field.
29:08
It looks unbelievable. Texas, which we we were laughing
29:11
at in our group chat. They still released their weekly
29:14
uniform as if they don't wear just the same 2 uniforms every
29:18
game. Uniform reveal and it's the same
29:21
uniform like. It's the uniform they've worn
29:24
since like the, you know, the end of World War 2 for for
29:28
Texas, but that'll be elite Michigan State, Penn State.
29:31
I've I've always loved the Michigan State aesthetic.
29:34
I think they do the modern classic well.
29:36
I like the blending in some of the like the the number font,
29:39
the Spartan symbols. I've always liked it, you know,
29:41
green and you've got the all white with this, the blue mixed
29:45
in of Penn State. That'll be really good.
29:48
Ohio State, UCLA is my third one.
29:50
Two elite uniforms, Daniel. I do want to say though, while
29:53
we're on the topic of UCLAI have a gripe about UCLA's uniform.
29:57
I think I ranked the number one, the Big 10 for uniforms heading
29:59
into this year. Is it the Sissy?
30:01
Blue that there's not this. I love the Sissy blue is the
30:05
face mask. Their face mask is gold.
30:08
That matches the helmet. I think a Gray face mask, which
30:12
they've had at some point in their tenure, is much better.
30:16
So I don't like a helmet that has the same color helmet and
30:22
face mask, and especially theirs.
30:25
I mean, it's still a good uniform, but I think a Gray face
30:28
mask would just make it even better.
30:31
Face masks do matter. See Auburn football, the Navy
30:35
face mask far superior to whatever else they tried mixing
30:38
them up to have different uniforms.
30:40
Yeah, great face mask. Another one, Daniel, just to as
30:43
an as an honorable mention or is it almost in Florida Could be
30:46
good. And let's see here what was the
30:48
other one? Texas Tech UCF could be good.
30:51
So excited for for those as well.
30:54
Daniel, fourth quarter, we've got 4 picks against the spread
30:57
here. High noon, college game day.
31:01
Is it the biggest game of the day?
31:03
Of course not, says Pat Narduzzi.
31:04
Pitt is hosting Notre Dame. Notre Dame an 11 1/2 point
31:09
favorite. If you have not seen it, Pat
31:12
Narduzzi was asked in a press conference if this was, you
31:16
know, if this is a big game and he's like kind of smirks.
31:19
I'm glad you asked. Of course not Like we just need
31:22
to win our conference. We've got 2 conference games
31:25
left, but we're prepping for Notre Dame, so not a big game.
31:29
Notre Dame an 11 1/2 point favorite.
31:31
Daniel, what's your pick here in Pittsburgh?
31:34
I'm so glad we're talking about this.
31:36
Yeah. Is this a must win?
31:38
Of course not. No, it.
31:41
Well, Jacob, why is college game day there?
31:43
Why are we picking it if it's not?
31:45
You know, this really does. As funny as it is, I'm like it.
31:51
It makes me think, OK, do they not take it serious and get, I
31:57
know, blown the doors off? Because it's like, are they
31:59
truly like we're just going to focus on the ACC and that's all
32:02
we care about And which to a certain extent, it's like, is
32:06
this man a revolutionary? Like he keep the main thing, the
32:09
main thing, like does he pull his guys at halftime or is this
32:12
the biggest hustle I've ever seen and they come out there and
32:15
just kick Notre Dame's teeth in. I think I keep using that and I
32:19
probably need to get off of kick the teeth in, but I think I've
32:21
used that few weeks in a row now.
32:24
But do they blow their doors off?
32:26
Is Pitt has been a different team since they changed
32:28
quarterbacks? They have been a stronger team
32:30
throughout the year. Notre Dame is better.
32:34
I think that Notre Dame wins this game.
32:38
I think that it's not going to matter for Pitt based on what
32:42
their coach said for them. Regardless of that, I think that
32:46
Notre Dame is the better team, has a better defense.
32:48
I think that's really what I like about Notre Dame is that I
32:51
think that they're going to be able to keep this pit offense
32:55
out of the end zone. And really if pit moves the
32:58
ball, I think they're going to end up kicking a decent amount
33:00
of field goals, which I think is going to be a big deal.
33:05
Covering 11 1/2 points is tough in today's college football with
33:09
the limited possessions, but I think Notre Dame does it.
33:13
Give me the Irish. I'm laying 11 1/2 points.
33:16
I think it's the right side to be on.
33:18
Let me just do it. Irish lay the 11 1/2, the better
33:21
team. They win by two touchdowns.
33:24
Daniel, I'm with you. I think this should be a good
33:26
match up as far as Pitt's rush defense have been very good this
33:29
year. You know, against the run Pitt
33:32
opponent adjusted 8th best rush defense in the country.
33:37
They're third in total rush defense, number one team in the
33:40
country in yards per carry allowed 18th and explosive runs
33:45
around. But look, this is this is Notre
33:47
Dame. They have the 14th best opponent
33:49
adjusted rush offense in the country.
33:51
They're 26 in total rush offense, 17th in yards per
33:54
carry. Of course with Jeremiah Love,
33:57
7th in explosive runs, that should be a good match up.
34:01
But I think this is going to get ugly.
34:03
Pitt can't run the ball and has a bad pass defense.
34:07
And when Pitt runs the ball, you're talking out of 68 Power
34:10
Four teams. 5th and their opponent adjusted rush offense
34:14
104th in total rush offense, 112th in yards per carry.
34:18
Going up against this Notre Dame defense.
34:20
And like when Notre Dame throws it, they are 26th in total pass
34:25
pass offense, second in yards per attempt.
34:28
A very explosive pass offense. Pitts 97th in pass defense, 60th
34:34
in yards per attempt allowed. Look, Narduzzi said this is not
34:38
a must win. I think they get the doors blown
34:41
off of them by Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame runs away and
34:43
hides. Pitt also plays fast.
34:46
They're one of the fastest teams in the country, partly because
34:49
they don't run the ball well. That means more Notre Dame
34:52
possessions. That's how I read that, Daniel,
34:54
which means more Notre Dame points. 11 1/2 does not scare
34:58
me. I think the Irish win this game
35:00
like 3417. Lay the points, give me the
35:03
Irish. November belongs to elite teams.
35:07
I think Notre Dame is an elite team.
35:08
Lay the points. We are together on this one.
35:11
I do what I mentioned, by the way, you are now 44% against the
35:14
spread in the season. I'm 40% against the spread.
35:17
You went two and two last week. I went one and three.
35:19
Maybe a good idea is to just fade my picks, Daniel.
35:24
Like has several weeks gotten one on me and I think this.
35:28
I'm O for one now since we're together on this pick.
35:31
I'm O for one is what you're telling me.
35:33
We, hey, we, we went one for one on our first pick last week.
35:37
OK, so. Maybe fade 3 and 4 from you.
35:41
Yeah, if or if Daniel and I pick different on this next one, go
35:44
with Daniel's pick, All right? Yeah.
35:46
Alabama land six against Oklahoma.
35:50
Oklahoma going to Tuscaloosa. Playoff hopes in their own
35:55
hands. Bama can lose this game and
35:57
still get in. Oklahoma is the more desperate
36:00
team. Oklahoma won this game in
36:02
dominant fashion last year, Daniel.
36:04
They now go on the road. Alabama laying six.
36:08
Who do you like in Tuscaloosa? Yeah, this one opened at 7 1/2
36:11
and I was all over Oklahoma at that.
36:14
I think that Oklahoma's defense has enough guys to make Alabama
36:19
punt the ball occasionally and like kind of keep this one
36:22
where, you know, Alabama has to keep giving the ball back.
36:25
My concern for Oklahoma offensively is turnovers.
36:29
I think if they can avoid turnovers, then they're in this
36:31
game and can win it. I think if they turn the ball
36:34
over, of course, I mean, this sounds cliche to just say this,
36:38
but if they turn the ball over, I mean Alabama is going to run
36:41
them out of the stadium. That being said, running them
36:43
out of the stadium would be like you know, cover, you know 10
36:48
point game 14 point game, because I think this Oklahoma
36:52
defense is good. I like Oklahoma to still keep
36:56
this close. I I see this one is like a
36:58
A27242723 kind of a game like AI got 4/4 point victory for three
37:06
or four point victory for Alabama.
37:08
I definitely think Alabama is good at turning it on when it
37:11
needs to be turned on and like making the important plays at
37:16
the right time. But I think Oklahoma is going to
37:18
give them a good game. So it is taking points for
37:22
Oklahoma on the road, but I think Alabama ultimately wins.
37:25
But give me Oklahoma plus the six.
37:27
All right, you heard me fade pick with Daniel because I'm I'm
37:31
taking Alabama here. The strength of Oklahoma Daniel
37:34
is their rush defense. And here's where styles make
37:38
fights. And this is this is going to be
37:39
a stylistic fight because and you know, Alabama has not been
37:43
able to run the ball all year and it has not mattered.
37:48
So I think the strength of Oklahoma being a strong rush
37:51
defense and saying we're going to stop the run.
37:54
Bama's like, oh, not stopping the run, like that's really
37:57
going to stop our off. They they've been able to run
37:59
the ball all year. So I think that's a wash as far
38:02
as the the best part about your team not mattering in this
38:05
matchup because Alabama's been able to win a bunch of games
38:09
against good teams regardless. I'm not having a good running
38:12
game. So Oklahoma's gonna have to win
38:14
another way. Is it their pass defense,
38:16
Daniel? They are 22nd in total pass
38:20
defense, 12th in yards per attempt.
38:22
Alabama, they're 14th in total pass offense, 29th in yards per
38:27
attempt. Kind of a wash.
38:28
I give edge to Alabama there. Alabama can be run on.
38:32
We've seen that this year, but Oklahoma, Daniel, they're 92nd
38:36
yards per carry, 94th in total pass defense.
38:39
I don't think they're going to be able to run on Alabama and I
38:42
think that's how you won this game.
38:43
So give me the Tide. I think Matir has still not
38:46
looked the same since the hand injury.
38:49
Bama has a top 15 pass defense in the country.
38:52
I just think it's a bad matchup for Oklahoma.
38:54
Oklahoma profiles like Vanderbilt.
38:57
I think this game looks similarly.
38:59
I think Alabama went to this game like 3120.
39:02
I think they get to double digits here.
39:04
November belongs to elite teams. Lay the points with the Tide.
39:09
And if you want to win this pick, pick Oklahoma with Daniel.
39:12
There you go. There's free advice on this
39:14
podcast. Fade me say all that logic
39:17
sounds great. I'm taking Oklahoma.
39:19
Whatever Daniel said. All right, game three, USC
39:23
laying 6 1/2 against Iowa. Lincoln Riley in another Big 10
39:29
physical matchup. Iowa come into town again,
39:33
controls their own playoff hopes. 2 losses.
39:36
You went out and USC is quietly in.
39:39
And you know who do you like in this game in the Coliseum?
39:42
Yeah, this one's similar. I think that USC at home, I
39:47
think they're going to, they're so prolific and I think that
39:51
you've seen them in their biggest games.
39:54
You know, if they, if a team can bully them specifically
39:59
defensively where the other team's offense can bully them, I
40:03
think that USC struggles with that.
40:06
You know, you look at the Notre Dame game and then you look at I
40:10
guess there are other losses. Illinois, USC could still move
40:14
the ball. Iowa plays differently.
40:16
Iowa is going to try to limit US CS production offensively.
40:21
They're going to muck this game up.
40:24
There's going to be a bunch of field goals, I bet.
40:27
That being said, I'm still going to ride with with USC.
40:32
It's laying less than a touchdown.
40:34
I think ultimately at home, they know that their playoff lives
40:39
are on the line. They're going to March down the
40:42
field and they're just going to have more.
40:45
I, I think that they're going to finish more drives than other
40:48
teams have been able to against Iowa.
40:50
And then on the inverse, I think USC could use a game like this
40:55
where they play against Iowa's offense where it's it's not as
40:59
bad as it used to be, but it's just not this prolific offense
41:03
that's going to give USC trouble.
41:05
Think that's where USC their kryptonite is when they match a
41:08
team that can get first downs regularly, stay on schedule,
41:12
move down the field methodically and get get touchdowns, do what
41:15
you need to do, play good offensive football.
41:17
That's not Iowa at all. So I think USC is going to win
41:20
this game. I think they're going to cover.
41:21
So lay the 6 1/2 USC thought. You're going to go the other way
41:25
there. All right, here comes physical
41:27
Iowa, Big 10 football. Can Lincoln Riley handle this?
41:32
Well, I'll look at their schedule.
41:34
Daniel and I say, have they been in the spot or a physical Big 10
41:39
team with big offensive defensive lines comes in, wants
41:43
to run the ball into the Coliseum.
41:46
We have seen this game this year it was Michigan and the spread
41:50
was USC land 3 and you know they won.
41:53
That came 31 to 13. They out game Michigan 489 to
41:57
316. They out rushed Michigan 224 to
42:01
run up to 109 and the yards per carry they out rushed them 6.2
42:06
yards per carry to 3 1/2. I just think this game profile
42:10
is very similarly except Iowa's offense is not as good as
42:14
Michigan's offense. USC has been sneaky good as I
42:18
said, when out and they're in, they control their own destiny
42:21
so I think you're going to get a really good effort for them.
42:24
Best C wins this game 30 to 14 ish.
42:26
I think it's at least a 2 possession game.
42:29
These points man. As I've said, November belongs
42:32
to elite teams. I think USC is more on the elite
42:36
side than not at this point in the years.
42:40
Lay the points last game, Daniel 730, primetime ABC, The Georgia
42:47
Bulldogs hosting the Texas Longhorns, the third time these
42:51
teams will have played in two years.
42:53
Georgia when the previous two matchups, one in Austin, one in
42:56
Atlanta. We now get it in Athens.
42:58
This is Texas's first trip to Athens.
43:01
Very cool that we get that, especially with two big brands
43:04
like Georgia and Texas. The dogs lay in six.
43:08
Who do you like in Athens? Yeah, I'm, I'm looking at this
43:11
one man. And if this was in Austin, I
43:13
would feel some kind of way about it.
43:15
But I think Georgia, just the way that they've played.
43:19
If I'd have told you before this season, Jacob, that like these
43:22
two teams would play and you're looking at Gunner Stockton and
43:28
Arch Manning, you would think, OK, Arch Manning has probably in
43:32
the Heisman run. He's this, you know, elite
43:35
quarterback, whatever you want to think.
43:37
What if I told you that, you know, at the beginning of the
43:39
year, these two would come and gunner would be, I guess,
43:43
thought of as more of the, you know, higher profile quarterback
43:47
in this game and arch is just kind of a long term ride with
43:51
this great Texas defense. It's just crazy to think
43:54
anyways, I'll, I'll, I'm looking at this.
43:56
George has really, they've had a good run game, but I think
44:00
they've taken it to the next level the past couple weeks with
44:02
Nate Frazier kind of re establishing himself as the
44:05
number one running back in this Georgia backfield.
44:08
So they've got 2 good backs. Zachariah Branch has really
44:11
stepped up from a receiver standpoint ever since Colby
44:14
Young went down his injury. He's the clear #1 target.
44:19
I think that this Georgia offense has a strong identity
44:22
and don't look now, but George's defense who has struggled and
44:26
not been the typical George defense, they're leading the SEC
44:30
and defensive explosive play rate.
44:34
Sorry, I was trying to do my best Jacob impression by having
44:36
some stats ready. They're 13th in the country, but
44:38
they're number one in the SEC. So yeah, I think that that's
44:43
that's extremely important in this kind of a game.
44:46
Don't give up the big play. Make Arch Manning beat you by
44:49
taking them down the field and have to get continue to be on
44:53
target and get first downs. And he's just not been that
44:56
accurate this year, Jacob. So I'm going to go with the
44:58
dogs. I think Georgia is the play
45:01
here. I think they're going to win the
45:02
game outright. But the six points is where I'm
45:05
questioning, does Georgia cover? Georgia has been comfortable
45:09
winning by 4, being behind in the game, coming back and
45:12
winning. I think this is a game where you
45:14
see Georgia peeking at the right time and I think they win by 10.
45:18
So give me the dogs, lay the points.
45:19
OK, I Danny, when I first looked at this game, I thought Georgia
45:25
in A1 score game, take Georgia to win, take Texas to cover.
45:29
I dug in and I feel differently. The Texas defense is still the
45:32
best unit on the field. Georgia's offense is clicking.
45:36
Georgia defense has been good when it needs to be.
45:39
Texas is offense. Are they starting to find it,
45:41
Daniel? I think this this game is going
45:43
to be one of two areas. It's the line of scrimmage
45:46
surprise, which team can run the ball and which team can tackle
45:50
in space. Let's start with the first.
45:52
Georgia offense has started to find an explosive run game and I
45:57
think offensive line finally being healthy these last couple
46:01
of games, you're starting to see some of these 7/10/15 yard runs
46:07
to get to 20 to 30 to a 75 yard run you had last week with with
46:13
Nate Frazier. But the Texas defense is good.
46:15
This will be by far the best rush defense they've faced.
46:18
It's a top five rush defense in the country.
46:21
Can Texas find a run game? And I think this is where you
46:24
start to see a matchup disadvantage opponent adjusted
46:27
for power 5. This is a Georgia.
46:30
This is a Georgia defense that is 15th in the country and rush
46:35
defense, again, a defense that has not been impressive, but
46:38
15th in the country for rush defense, Texas, the 44th best
46:42
rush offense. The total rush defense,
46:45
Georgia's 12th. There's 16th in yards per carry
46:48
allowed, third in the country. An explosive runs allowed.
46:51
Texas in those categories, 98th, 90th, 100.
46:54
This is not a great Texas rushing offense and against it's
46:57
Kirby Smart defense, although they have underperformed, if
47:01
you're 1 dimensional, they're going to find a way to beat.
47:04
The second way is who's going to tackle 1 space.
47:06
These are the number one and #2 offenses in the SEC at throws at
47:11
or behind the line of scrimmage. So which teams can fly to the
47:16
ball and tackle at both defensive back and linebacker?
47:19
And the answer is very simple to me here and it's Georgia.
47:21
Georgia has some of the fastest linebackers in the country.
47:24
If you're going to look at Georgia and say we want your
47:27
linebackers to go side to side and make tackles, George has
47:30
done that. And I think if you're Georgia,
47:32
you say OK, game, set, match. So I think Georgia wins here.
47:36
I think they're the more physical team.
47:37
The Texas, they're at home where they're very hard to beat.
47:40
And unless Texas is going to walk out in a Crimson helmet, I
47:45
like George's chances to win at home and cover.
47:48
I like the Dogs 2717 in this game.
47:52
I think it's like a 10 point game.
47:54
I think Georgia wins and covers Daniel.
47:58
We did the same thing as last week.
48:00
We picked the same three out of four games different on the
48:02
second one. So if you're at home, I think
48:05
you should pick Notre Dame with us, pick Oklahoma with Daniel,
48:10
and then pick Iowa and Texas. Yeah, for sure.
48:15
We both said Georgia by 10. So I don't know, man.
48:19
We'll see. Be sure to follow us at the
48:21
Extra Point pod on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
48:24
You can follow Daniel on Twitter at New South Daniel, you can
48:27
follow me on Twitter at Jacob Carnes of the K.
48:29
That'll do it for this edition of The Extra Point.
48:32
He is Daniel. I am Jacob.
48:34
See ya.