Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / November Jobs Day And Infrastructure

Transcript

November Jobs Day And Infrastructure · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to get
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: over right now to Dana Peterson UM to help us
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: assess what's going on here in uh in the economy.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Dana is Chief Economists and Center Leader of the Economy
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: at the Conference Board, and Um, you know, it's the
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: consumer that makes not just a huge difference in terms
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: of spending right now, but in terms of so many
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: other things, including returning to the workforce as as we
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: have seen highlighted by today's jobs report. Dana, what's the
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: state of the consumer's health and not just you know, financially,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: but in terms of getting back out there looked like
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to you yes, I mean, our last survey of consumer
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: confidence for November showed that there was a dip in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: confidence overall. And when we ask consumers you know, what's
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the problem, they cited two things. First, inflation, and the
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: second was COVID, And certainly when we look at the
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: number of delta variant and COVID cases overall in November,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: they were still pretty elevated, even though they were not
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: as bad as say late August early September UM and
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I think we saw that in today's report, where we
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: saw just two tens UH in terms of total payroll
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: gains and very little gains in terms of leisure and hospitality,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: and even some other UH sectors UM in services had
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: negative readings. So if consumers are still not feeling safe
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: and want to get out there and engage in these
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: services that you have to enjoy outside of the home,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: and that's certainly going to in fact effect how many
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: people UH employers are going to hire. It's been interesting
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: to watch wage growth, but then an uptick in inflation
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: as well the last print, and inflation was about six percent.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: And I'm curious how you're thinking about the relatively strong
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: wage growth that we got in this report though if
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: it's not keeping up with a six percent inflation rate,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: real wages are still negative. How do you view these
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: wage numbers? Sure, I think the wage numbers increasing, you know,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: four percent year on year UM is really telling of
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the continued labor shortages that we're seeing. And certainly some
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: industries are worse than others. So if you look at
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the retail I'm sorry, If you look at Lesion, hospitality
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: wages were up almost thirteen percent year on year UM.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And also transportation, I'm sorry, yeah, it's transportation and also warehousing. Uh,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: those prices were up more than six percent year on year.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: So certain areas, certainly those areas that are seen need
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: most acute labor shortages. Again, those sectors that need people
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: to physically be at work, we're seeing much higher wage
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: increases relative to overall in terms of the participation rate.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Janet Yellen a couple of days ago and her testimony
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: said she thinks it's all about COVID that people are
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: afraid to come back in Goldman Sachs, I think put
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: out a report, uh, a couple of weeks ago, though,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: saying it's really about um returns because people have made
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: so much money in the markets that those closed to
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: retirement have decided they could go ahead and do it.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: How do you see it, Well, I think it's a
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: combination of both plus other things. So certainly many people
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: have retired early, either because they were afraid of getting
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: sick or because their forewing k plans really exploded and
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: they said, look, we feel financially safe, we can go
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: ahead and retire. And many of those people are probably
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: not going to return to the labor markets. Certainly, many
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: people are still afraid of getting sick. Um. Certainly, again
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: looking at the more confidence data, uh far, the virus
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: is still very real. But you also have other factors.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So for example, travel bands are still in play, so
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: that means that labor from abroad really isn't able to
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: come in. And still in some of those spots you
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: still have lingering childcare issues, which are especially acute for
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: women with working women with children. And so potentially the
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: participation rate may not return to the level that we
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: saw before the pandemic. So that suggests that maybe we're
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: closer to full employment than the participation rate is signaling.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: How does this Federal Reserve respond? I would argue that
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: maybe we heard sort of a different tone out of J.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Powell this week. What does this mean for a FED meeting?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And on December? Well, I I think you know, when
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: looking at this employment report, it was mixed. On the
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: one hand, payrolls were pretty pathetic, but UM on the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: household survey, we saw some good numbers there. Unemployment rate
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: continue to fall, and certainly when you look at unemployment
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: rates for different demographic groups, they're not as bad as
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: they used to be. UM. Also, if you again getting
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: back to the participation rate and reason for why you're
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: not going to see some people come back, then you
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: can say that, look, we're getting close to the full
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: employment maybe in some areas we've actually reached it. But
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: we also have to be very concerned about inflation. Look
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: at wages rising as acutely as they are, businesses are
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: most likely passing some of those wage costs and other
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: input costs down to consumers. That's showing up in consumer inflation.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: And if you're the FED, you have to also be
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: concerned not just about how many people are working, but
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: they're they're buying power, and certainly they're buying power is
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: eroded if prices are rising, especially forces necessities like food, UM,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: energy and shelter. Danny, you think do you think that
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the FED is going to be able to was rate,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: raise wages? Sorry, what am I talking about? Raise rates?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: UM without hurting economic growth? I mean we're only at
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: you know, if they raise twice seventy five basis points, absolutely,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I think that they can raise. As you said, if
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: they raise interest rates two or three times, you still
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: very low interest rates, still very accommodative. And let's let's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: think about what growth may look like next year, anywhere
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: from three to four percent, depending upon what you have
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: in there in terms of additional fiscal stimulus and also
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: effects from higher inflation. So three percent is still very strong,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: especially when a potential GDP is probably close to two percent.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: So you have that perfect backdrop for the said relatively
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: strong growth meaning well above trend at least one one
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: to two percentage points above trend um, elevated prices, rising
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: inflation expectations, and also an employment back drop that's significantly
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: better and deep. When you look at number of missing
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: persons from payrolls, you're around three million compared to two
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: million back in February March of last year. So we've
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: come a long way. Is that what I mean? A
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: flattening yield curve on the two s tends right now
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: below eighty basis points, and you could argue maybe eighty
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: basis points feels low. It's the flattest that we've had
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: since pre pandemic. And it's also the rate of change
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: at which we've gotten to eight basis points. What is
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: that flattening of the old curve telling you about a
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: pull forward of some of these rate hike expectations. Well,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I think markets are are kind of confused a little bit.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: On the one hand, you do have the strongest signaling
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: from the FED. Certainly during the testimony from the chair
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: he said, let's get rid of that word transitory and
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: think more about the fact that some of these inflations
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: elements are potentially a little bit more persistent, given the
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: fact of the pandemic is persisting, and there may be
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: some other things that even after the pandemic may linger,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: such as I wages. And also, meanwhile, you have the
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: armicron variant cropping up, and we know that the delta
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: variant has and is continuing to affect economic activity. So
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I would imagine markets probably don't know which way to
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: go on this. But again, looking ahead to next year,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: um in the springtime or mid year, the conditions are
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: probably going to be ripe. Among the things that I've
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: already mentioned for the FED to go ahead and start
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: raising interest rates a little bit. I want to ask
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: a question that I know you don't want to be political.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: No economists wants to be political, unless you're Paul Krugman
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: or Brian Westbury, But build back better? Does that kind
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: of spending add to inflation? Or um? Does it help
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: us avoid inflation? Or is it a question of your
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: time span? I think a lot of it to a
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: combination of what's in the bill, which we we do
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: know um and certainly it's already been scored by the CBO,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: and the timing of when the outlays happen, and certainly UM,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I think the outlays are meant to be accelerated across
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the ten year period or however long the period is.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: And so that means that you have stronger growth potentially
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: next year and and and also in the year after.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And so that means that you also may have stronger
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: demand UM, certainly from businesses that are uh, you know,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: certainly investing such that they can meet the demands of
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: required by the bill UM. And so that means higher
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: prices and certainly UM potentially higher prices for consumers as well. So,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: taking together stronger growth somewhat stronger inflation, and so again
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: that provides additional space are a reason for the said
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: to go ahead and begin raising interest rates from zero.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: It's int sting. I do wonder you know, what do
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: you think about sort of this intersection of increase in
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: fiscal and monetary stimulus. I think we knew post financial
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: crisis there was a lot of pressure to do monetary
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: stimulus because we didn't have the fiscal stimulus this time around.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Actually could argue that the fiscal side has really been
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: front and center along with monetary policy. Does that sort
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: of also give the Fed officials room to pull back
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: because as notwith saying this massive fiscal stimulus that is coming, well,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: I think, um, you're right. We had lots of fiscal
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: copious amounts of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus amid the pandemic.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: And certainly when we look at the drivers of inflation,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: all that is not linked to the FEDS low interest
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: rates or quantitae and vias, and some of it is
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: linked to the very strong demand for good um and
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: services you can consume at home from discill stimulus checks.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: But still them all of the said is looked to
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: to manage the economy in the financial system and certainly
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: the FED can help cool lost some of the the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: heat that we're seeing in the economy and certainly in
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: an inflation by raising interest rates. So again, you know,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: we have two very powerful policy impulses, and certainly in
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: the FED can pull back on its policy impulses consistent
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: with its dual mandate. All right, Dana, thanks so much,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: great to get your insight today. It's been a truly
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: fascinating I mean, the last couple of years have been
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: clearly unprecedented, but we've had an amazing week as well
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: in terms of trading. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Center
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Leader of Economy, UM Strategy and Finance at the conference board,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: let's get over right now and talk a more in
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: depth way about the job's number right now. Jani Bailey
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: joins US right now, chief workforce analysis at employee Bridge
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: and Johnny, you know, the President is going to come
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: out and say, yeah, I was a too. It was
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: a two hundred and fifty thousand, two hundred sixty thousand miss.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: But um, the unemployment number has fallen to four point
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: two percent. Even experts didn't anticipate that. Are we in
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: a good place as far as unemployments? Concerned. Well, first
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: of all, thanks for having me. UM, great to be
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: with you this morning, and I can tell you this
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Job's report, UM, it does have a little bit of
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: a mixed message because you're right, that headline number was
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: not that strong. We were expecting a number of five
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand jobs created and only saw two
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: hundred and ten thousand jobs created for the month of November,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: so that was a disappointment. How Ever, there is a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: lot of good news in this report. When you look
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: at the overall labor force. UM, we saw that almost
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: six hundred thousand people entered back into the labor force,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: which was a really good sign. We have a hundred
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: and sixty two million people that are participating in the
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: labor force compared to November last year, it was a
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty million UM. And even better is that
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: we're seeing the number of employed people expand as well. UM.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: That was over one point one million people added in
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: the month of November, so we now have a hundred
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: and fifty five million people working and that's what's really
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: driving down that unemployment rate. So UM, there is a
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: lot of good news in this report as well. Though,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: you know, I wouldn't be surprised. Maybe if next month
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: maybe they revised the numbers and it's a little bit
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: better and we see a little bit more job creation.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: But UM, I was surprised that the that the overall
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: job creation number was only two UM and twenty one.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: And you bring up a good point. Talk to us
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: about the revisions because we've seen a lot of those
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: in the past reports. Is there something UM changing were
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: different about the way the payrolls report is is calculated.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've heard a lot of people starting their
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: own businesses and job formation and employ you know, new
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: sort of employer creation, and it's sort of changing the
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: way that we should be looking at a traditional payrolls report. Yeah,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: you know, it's very interesting because then you can also
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: enter into the gig economy UM and and see, you know,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: how many people are participating in that and actually working
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: and is that being calculated UM correctly. But I can
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: tell you from a revision standpoint, you know, UM not
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: has really changed in the way they're calculating it. We
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: we see every month, UM, the first Friday of the month,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: when the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the report,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: they will also revise the last or the previous two months,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: and you know, the past few months we have seen
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: upward revisions. UM. This month in November, they actually revised
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: September and October ups and it was an additional eighty
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: seven thousand jobs created in those months. So the reports
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: were actually even better. And I wouldn't wouldn't be surprised
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: if we see that, you know, next month when we
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: look at the December jobs report, UM, maybe November will
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: get revived upwoard and well we will see a stronger number. UM.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: But overall there you know, the sectors, if you really
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: kind of break it down and look at where the
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: jobs were created, UM, it was kind of interesting. We
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: did not see uh strong job growth in leisure and hospitality.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Only twenty three thousand jobs were created in that sector,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: and that was expected to perform much stronger since we've
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: seen people start to travel again. UM. I don't know
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: about all of you, but you know, just being an
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: airport lately, the flights are packed, the airports are packed.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Restaurants certainly are you know, um at full capacity. So,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: uh surprise, we didn't see a stronger number there. But
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: there was good job growth in construction and manufacturing. Both
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: sectors added thirty one thousand. We're also seeing trade and
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: transportation UM at about fifty thousand. It was a little
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: over forty nine tho jobs created in that sector. So
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I think it really speaks to our economy right now
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: in the demand and supply chain, UM, there's a lot
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: of jobs available and where we're adding people back back
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: in those sectors. I mean there are a ton of
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: job We we focus so much on the people that
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: haven't come back into the labor force because the participation
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: rate is has historically been so important. UM. But there
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: are so many openings there. And your company, employee Bridge,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: is widely recognized as the biggest industrial staffing firm in America.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Where where do you see the most need right now?
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: And how difficult is it for you to fill those positions? Yes,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: So at employee Bridge, we have organized ourselves really by brands.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: So we have a division called pro Drivers and they
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: place UM CDL drivers and also non CDL drivers. UM.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: There is demand just right now for for drivers. So
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: that is an area UM that we're seeing pay rates
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: significantly up there, up eight year over year, and we
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: have tons of job openings. In fact, we could I
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: was talking to the president of that division yesterday. He said,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: we could double inside if we could just find more people. Well,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and by the way, I don't want to get too
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: far off from this tangent because I've always wanted to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: be a truck driver, long haul truck driver. But well,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I've looked, I've looked into it though I've I've been
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: reading a lot more about it lately. And not only
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: is it a incredibly difficult you know, just to do
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: to operate these big rigs, um, and you want to
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: operate them safely, so you need experience, but it's it's
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: not easy to get licensed either. I mean, how how
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: difficult is it for someone who who'se you know, biggest
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: truck experience is like an F one fifty to be
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: driving an eighteen wheeler across America. Well, there's you know,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: great training programs and schools to teach them. So if
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they're they have to be twenty one years old um
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: and a clean, cleaned living record, um. But there's great
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: opportunities and many companies are you know, offering to pay
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: for the training to help them, you know, and get them,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: you know, put them to work. So lots of opportunities
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: in that area. Interesting. Is it happening fast enough though?
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I mean overall too across sectors? Where where are all
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: the workers? What is not in I mean there are
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the pay increases that we've seen, not enough to bring
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: workers back. Well, that is such a great question, um,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: And I think everyone's kind of scratching their head. You know,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: it's it's probably a combination of things. Because certainly COVID
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: um impacted many families. We saw, you know, women drop
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: out of the workforce that how to stay home and
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: maybe help their children with online schooling. Um. We've also
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: seen that, you know, the impact of covid has maybe
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: made people reevaluate, you know, are we going to have
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: to you know, working you know, parents or maybe one
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: going to stay home. People are reevaluating themselves, So that
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: certainly has been an impact. Safety health and safety is
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: still a factor. UM. But you know, when I look
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: at labor participation and you break it down, I'm I'm
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: more concerned that we don't see enough women actually participating
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: in the workforce. So I think employers are going to
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: have to think differently about how they and you know,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: attract women to the workforce, whether it's more flexibility, more
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: work from home opportunities. Um, there's an opportunity to increase
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: labor participation that someone could kind of crack the code
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: on figuring out how to make it more attractive for
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: women to come back. Well, I have a great idea.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: What if What if major employers also had daycare in preschool? Yeah,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the major employers. I mean, it is something you know,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: to think about. For a while, I felt like we
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: were headed down, you know track, And you really don't
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: hear that as much today, partly because of COVID. You know,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: many UM employers have moved the professional jobs and said,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: you know, you can work remotely or have a hybrid schedule. Um.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: But that is something the major employers where they have all,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: you know, all of their employees at big locations. UM,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: that would be a great, great benefit to offer employees.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to get again. I don't want
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: to get political. And I've been flamed lately for being
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: a bleeding hero. Can you believe that on on social media? Um?
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Do you think build Back Better, if passed in its
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: current state, would help to increase to get women back
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: into the labor force. Oh gosh, that is a loaded question. Um. Okay,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: I didn't mean to I don't. I didn't mean for
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: it to be that way. I really don't know. No,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: I think you know, I'm not I have to be honest,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: but I'm not sure that that is the ants, sir.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I think we do need programs absolutely that support women, UM,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: that supports families, UM, and you know, offer training and
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: opportunities to get people back to back to work. My
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: concern would be too much social assistance is not going
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: to help get people back to work. And there's got
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: to be a balance. So that's why I say that's
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: a loaded question. There needs to be a balance. We
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: definitely you know, you can be an economist, well, I
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: can't say it's I see it more so on the
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: front lines with workers. When we were you know, when
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: our country was offering all of the supplemental insurance for
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the unemployment benefits, you know, we had many people that
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: we would call and so, we have a great job
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: for you, and they would say, well, I'm actually making
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: more money on unemployment right now, and so why would
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: I risk going to work? And so that that's always
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: a topic that's debated, but I could tell you firsthand
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: this this was a real issue that we dealt with
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: for a while and now that that's kind of run
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: its course, and those benefits did go away in the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: beginning of September, but it took a while for us
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: to kind of get back and get people participating in
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: the workforce. UM. And I can tell you right now
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: we're seeing more applications, so so to you know, to
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: answer your your question, I think it's a balance. Let's
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: be careful that we don't offer so much social assistance
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: that people don't want to come back to work and
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: don't want to participate. We can't make it too easy.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: You know, our country was built on strong you know,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: values and work ethic and we need people out there
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: working in all sectors. We need them training, we need
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: them learning, um, and we need them participating. I'm really
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: passionate about labor participation. We need to get more people participating.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Really appreciate your time. What a wide ranging interview. Johnny
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Biley of Horse Title here chief workforce analyst at Employee Bridge.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Let's get over and out of Tom Giinville. As I said,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: he's going to join us from LaSalle Network, leading American
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: staffing firm to talk about the job's number. We had
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: a big miss, Uh, Tom and nonetheless unemployment came down
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: to four point two with the participation rate rising. What's
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: your take, did we have a big miss? I get
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: it that economists want to look and predict the future
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: of what everything is going to be. You know, we
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: had to revive UH for October of five and forty
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: six thousand, right, so we're revising the previous month off.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: We added two hundred and ten thousand jobs, the participation
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: rate increased, and unemployment rate decreased. I don't see how
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: that's a myth. Talk to us then about the reaction
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: within some of them. For just for the record, I
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: get your point, but um, we had a print of
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: two ten and we were looking for five fifty. So well, Tom,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: take into us for this a little bit then, I mean,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: if you're thinking about all the visions higher, is that
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the case here? Of what we're thinking about is that
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: we'll get another revision next month for this month and
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: boost the top line number that that, of course Matt
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Matt is referring to. Historically, there there is a percentage
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: of the population that's unemployable and people don't want to
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: talk about that, and sure as heck, politicians don't. The
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: number used to be between two and a half and
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: three percent of the population is unemployable, and whether for
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: whatever reason they don't want to they don't have the abilities.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: There's a discrepancy and skill sets versus what's in demand.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: But there's a certain percentages of the population that isn't
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: a contributing member of the workforce. And what we've got
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: is a situation where every single if we if we
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: remove politics, right and I'm a centrist, if we remove
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: politics from this equation and and Biden and Trump and
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: all this craziness and COVID, what we still have is
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: a small percentage of holdback due to COVID, meaning parents
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: who left the workforce and are still out of the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: workforce because they need to be home when their kids
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: are sick or if there's COVID, you also have a
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: second percentage of population that people were contemplating leaving the
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: workforce to be stay at home parents, and with COVID
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: they realize how much they actually enjoy being around their
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: kids and they don't want to come back. You can't
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: recreate you can't recreate history. That's just factual. So now
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: what we've got is a more stabilized situation. I know
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: we have the the other variant that's potentially coming through
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: from Africa. Um, but we can't worry about that until
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: we have something to worry about in this country. What
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: we have is, as I said earlier, participants participation rate
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: is at the highest level since pre pandemic. Right, it
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: doesn't get me, It really doesn't get that much better
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: than that unemployment drop. Companies are hiring now ten thousand
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: maybe because give or take, that might be the only
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: available workers to add to the situation who want to
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: work interesting, Uh take, and I get um your points?
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: What about your at your business right now, little sound network? Um,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: how in demand are your services? Because we see an
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: amazing amount of job openings and how difficult are you
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: finding them to fill? We are up almost fifty over
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: a year ago. Our October itself was up over fifty
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: seven percent over a year ago. Our temporary staff and
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: we do all white collar are temporary staffing business is
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: we can't find enough people. Our search business is the
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: best it's ever been in twenty four years. And internally
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: we are high. We've hired over a hundred people this
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: year in recruiting in sales roles, and we're adding another
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty next year. Business has never been better,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: and we do operations in thirty eight of the of
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: the continental forty eight. And is this the wage growth
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: that we are seeing that comes in again pretty strong
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: in this report that is attracting um some of those
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: people to come back out and and continue to be
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: participating in this labor force. Is it a wage growth
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: that that you're finally seen. Yeah, I mean people people
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: want to work when they're paid more, There's no doubt
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: about it. But I also believe that there was a
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: certain percentage of the population that didn't under you know,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: we want to talk about, Oh, September numbers will be
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: great because the federal unemploymental stop and and people need
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: to get back to work. And maybe we just saw
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: two or three months lag from that number two, And
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: that is people just the until the benefits stop. Then
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: people start to look, and then it takes time when
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: they start to look to find a job, and and
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: then you contribute to the system here. So just because
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the benefits ended at the end of August doesn't mean
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: that all of a sudden the September numbers were going
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: to be great. I'm not so sure that we didn't
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: see a lag from the benefits ending and in addition
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: to increased wages and increase the people realizing that we
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: are not going to turn into a socialist government and
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: everything is going to be free, and I gotta get
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: my head back in the game. Wow, if everything we're free,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: I live under a socialist government here in a sense
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: social democrats. A lot of stuff is free kind of,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: but I have to pay half of my income in taxes. Now,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the energy industry, right and out with
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: the chief executive of e O S Energy Enterprises, Joe
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: master Angelo joins us UH and we are going to
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: get a little bit into the Infrastructure Bill and some
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: grants to expand US battery research. First of all, Joe, UM,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: what's your take on what we saw in the Infrastructure
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Bill and how do you think it's going to change
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: the energy industry. Yeah, I think you know, the industry
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: and of itself. We're at a tipping point right now
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: of really accelerating into more and more um energy storage,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: more and more renewables, and I think what you see
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: in the Infrastructure Bill is going to help us get there.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: And I also think it's important to think about in
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: the Build Back Better Bill as well. There's some great
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: incentives for people to make investments in the standalone energy
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: storage outside of just doing energy storage with solar, which
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: is also going to help us firm up the grid
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: and allow higher use of renewables. Joe, I think it's
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: so fascinating. I think six months ago we were all
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: talking about the chip shortage, and know we're still talking
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: about the chip shortage, but everyone says that a year
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: from now it is going to be a battery shortage.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Do you agree depends on the technology, I think, I
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: think um, I think the shortage is driven by the demand.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I think what we've tried to do is is position
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: ourselves to be able to scale rapidly with how we've
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: designed both are our manufacturing process and our supply chain.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: And we're ready to scale. And we're in the midst
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: of investing in our factory in in Turtle Creek outside Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: We've added, you know, close to a hundred jobs, and
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: we're continuing to add manufacturing capacity to go from a
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: run rate of around two hundred fifty megawatt hours per
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: year to eight hundred megawatt hours pre by the end
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: of next year. So we're excited to keep building out
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: and just keep working through the challenges and bring great
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: technology to market. Tell us, by the way, for those
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: who don't know what you do at EOS, the ticker
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: is e O se UM. But you have a long
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: career in working in power at GE from turbo machinery
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: to gas power systems. What do you do now at EOS? Yeah? Yeah, man,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: I've been in the energy industry for for thirty years.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: UM Eos is a is a stationary energy storage company
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: that is based on zinc Roman technology for its electro
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: like that allows you to store and discharge energy UM back,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: pull energy from the grid and discharge it back on
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the grid. We do this with earth abundant, non toxic,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: fully recyclable materials, and do this in a way that
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: allows extreme operating flexibility. It's it's a it's a great
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: technology whose time has arrived, and it's just very exciting
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: to lead the firm. Can you talk to us, Joan.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking big picture here, the shift to renewables and
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: the impact that that has had on gas prices. There
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: have been some concerns that the way in which we're
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: shifting we're not doing it in a reliable way. What
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: is this sort of ideal shift? What does that look
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: like to you? Yeah, so funny, I would I would
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: start off and always say that the energy value chain
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: is always going to have a mix of technologies, and
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: I believe that there is a mix for gas turbine technology.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: As we move forward, as renewables have come on, you
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: know that the reality of renewables is the sun isn't
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: always shining and the wind isn't always blowing, so you
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: have these moments of time where either you have too
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: much or you don't have enough. And what the industry
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: is now moving towards is to add this stationary storage
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: to allow you to store energy when there's excess and
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: discharge it when there's a need. So it allows those
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: renewable technologies to become a firming resource so that when
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: we flipped the switch in our house, the lights come on.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: And that that's the key trick here. As you want
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: to add more renewables, you need reliable storage in order
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: to do that. It's it's such a fast eating industry
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: and I think it's going to become more and more important.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: What do you think in terms of the growth, what's
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: your what's your forecast for the growth of just the
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: energy storage industry. I think it depends on it depends
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: on what forecasts you look at. I mean, we're in
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: we're in a tremendous growth cycle where you're talking about
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: you know, compound average growth rates in as we look
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: out over the over the next few years. I think
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: a catalyst to accelerate that growth goes back to where
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: we started the conversation with the Build Back Better Bill
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: of allowing people to get investment tax credits to bring
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: new technology on that also incentivizes them to take American
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: may technology. You know, we're a company, the technology was
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: invented in the US. Of our suppliers are in the US,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: are factories in the US, and allowing us to do
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: this is going to allow us to gain energy independence
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: as we look to more green and lower carbon solutions.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Talk to me more about that, are we honest ring
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: fasten us? Well? I think right now you have UM
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: you have a lot of companies like ours or other companies.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: You know, EOS is not you know, I'd love to
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: tell you that we're going to be a solution. It's
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: gonna take a lot of us to be able to
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: do what we need to do because there's a lot
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: of different use cases. So there are other companies out
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: there that are behind us in their commercialization and industrialization
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: path that need to be that pushed to to be
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: able to to to grow into a full scale manufacturer.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: I think of what we're doing now is going to
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: allow us to do that. The timing is right in
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the market to get other technologies besides lithium ion into
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the grid and allow us to to bring more renewables
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: on and and and shore up our supplying demount of power.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: You've come on at a well, I guess, a very
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: volate time for your stock. It's shot up and then
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: came back down to levels we saw before your chief
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: executive officer, what's going on with the more Look, you know,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: what we control is how we execute, how the orders
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: that we win, in the product that we deliver, and
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: that's what we're focused on every day. As you know,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of other things that go on around
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: a stock price. But what we've said from the day
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: we've gone public is we just want to show people
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: that we're the company that executes and delivers and we're
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: going to continue to show that prove those proofpoints and
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: show people that we're great investment for the future in
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: a growing industry with a great technology, and now we
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: just have to show our ability to deliver, and that's
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: what we're that's what we're focused on right now. Adios
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: all right, Joe, thanks so much for joining us. Great
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: to hear a little bit more about your company and
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: your industry. Joe Master and Jello there, the CEO of
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: EOS Energy Enterprises. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. And I'm
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.