Latest / Simply Bitcoin / $61T Microstrategy TAKEOVER is CONFIRMED?! | EP 1322

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$61T Microstrategy TAKEOVER is CONFIRMED?! | EP 1322 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Literally hours ago, MicroStrategy, or formerly
• 0:03
  MicroStrategy, now Strategy, is officially qualified for
• 0:07
  inclusion into the S&P 500. This is not only massive for
• 0:12
  Trad 5, but this could change everything for Bitcoin.
• 0:15
  Could MSTR inclusion finally help to explain Michael Saylor's
• 0:20
  fascinating theory about the next Bitcoin bear market?
• 0:24
  Let's take a listen to it. How do you expect the asset to
• 0:28
  continue a price increase at these levels that we've seen?
• 0:33
  I mean, can it keep that up over the next five years, over the
• 0:36
  next 10 years? And at what point do we see, you
• 0:40
  know, winter coming again, because that's been a a
• 0:45
  permanent fixture of of this asset class, right?
• 0:49
  It's gone from 0 or 1000 to 20 and then back down to three or
• 0:54
  four and then up to 50 and then back down to 15 and now up to
• 0:58
  110. Like when does it drop again?
• 1:02
  Winners not coming back, we're past that.
• 1:05
  We're past that phase. If bitcoins not going to 0, it's
• 1:08
  going to $1,000,000 and you have all the evidence you need to
• 1:12
  determine that, right? The president of the United
• 1:14
  States has determined he supports Bitcoin.
• 1:17
  The cabinet supports Bitcoin. Scott Peasant supports Bitcoin.
• 1:21
  Paul Atkins has shown himself to be an enthusiastic believer of
• 1:25
  Bitcoin and digital assets. Ken Tez at CFTC feels the same.
• 1:30
  Ray, the the banks are going to custody Bitcoin.
• 1:35
  Bitcoin is has gotten through its riskiest period.
• 1:39
  The accounting has been corrected.
• 1:41
  There's now only 450 Bitcoin a day available for Sale by
• 1:45
  natural sellers. That's the miners.
• 1:47
  At this level, that works out to about $50 million of Bitcoin
• 1:50
  available for sale every day. If that $50 million is bought,
• 1:55
  then the price has got to move up to find any natural, any, any
• 1:59
  seller that's price sensitive. Now, if you do the math, you'll
• 2:03
  actually see the Bitcoin treasury companies by themselves
• 2:06
  are buying the entire natural supply.
• 2:08
  Yeah, BlackRock and the ETFs are buying another measure of that.
• 2:14
  And we've got nation state actors coming into the space.
• 2:18
  So I think when Bitcoin rallies, if it surges to 500,000 or
• 2:23
  $1,000,000, then maybe we could talk about it crashing down by a
• 2:27
  $200,000 a coin. But at the current price levels,
• 2:32
  it only takes $50,000,000 to turn the entire drive shaft of
• 2:36
  the crypto economy. One turn and you've got the
• 2:39
  Trump Media Organization announcing 2 1/2 billion.
• 2:42
  You've got GameStop announcing 500 million.
• 2:45
  You've got my company that's raising billions and billions of
• 2:48
  dollars. So the writing is on the wall.
• 2:51
  Bitcoins moving higher. Let's go wow.
• 2:54
  Before we go in and break down this article, I do want to
• 2:57
  acknowledge the fact that this clip was like, I don't know, 2-3
• 3:02
  months ago and the price ticker was exactly the price that we're
• 3:06
  at today, Nico. So I did the poll in the chat.
• 3:11
  Is winter coming? Who knows who knows exactly, but
• 3:17
  I mean, his point remained the same.
• 3:19
  We, we've been saying this on the show for a while.
• 3:21
  What is going on right now makes absolutely no sense.
• 3:24
  Like the math around this makes absolutely no sense.
• 3:28
  If this amount of capital is coming into Bitcoin, the amount
• 3:31
  of Bitcoin that is being released daily, which
• 3:33
  historically has been kind of what needs to get eaten up
• 3:36
  before the price starts running. It just, it makes absolutely no
• 3:40
  sense. Though you do have to bring in
• 3:41
  that extra factor of all the coins that are hitting
• 3:44
  exchanges. I don't know if you guys saw
• 3:46
  over the weekend, but we saw another huge OG tranche hit the
• 3:49
  exchanges. I think it was another 20, 4000
• 3:52
  coins. I think they broke off like 3K
• 3:54
  and they're continuing selling. So there's a lot of coins
• 3:57
  hitting the exchanges right now. So this clip right here, you
• 4:00
  know, that math that Sailor laid out for us, it really does
• 4:04
  explain kind of like the the macro dynamics playing out.
• 4:08
  It's not really factoring a lot of people that are currently
• 4:11
  selling right now. But I don't know, Nico, before
• 4:14
  we break this down, what's your I know we've talked about this
• 4:17
  clip before the you know, winter isn't coming.
• 4:20
  And I was literally saying it this morning while I was in the
• 4:22
  gym. It's like, man, you know, right
• 4:25
  now, it really feels like one of those times where you have to
• 4:29
  like out trade your emotions because emotionally we're all
• 4:31
  drained. We're all like, man, is this
• 4:33
  dump coming? Are we, are we double topping
• 4:36
  here? What is going on?
• 4:37
  Because the price should be going up, but it's always
• 4:40
  dumpiest before it's pumpiest. And so when you feel like you
• 4:43
  should be selling your Bitcoin, that's probably when you should
• 4:46
  be acquiring it. And if you're being honest with
• 4:48
  yourself, I think we're all I know we're we're we're stupidly
• 4:51
  bullish here every single day. But if you're looking at the
• 4:54
  price right now and you all are following the price and what's
• 4:58
  going on, you can see the market sentiment.
• 5:00
  It does make you almost want to puke, but you're like, that's
• 5:03
  why I I know it's going to start ripping.
• 5:05
  So before we get into the big announcement, Nico, let's just
• 5:08
  let's just double back on what Saylor was saying.
• 5:11
  Is the winter coming? Nico, you've been having a lot
• 5:15
  more conversations with other bitcoiners.
• 5:17
  So are you still bearish? Oh, oh, am I losing you?
• 5:23
  Oh, there you are. You're back.
• 5:28
  You're back. You're back.
• 5:29
  I've been having these, I've been having these existential
• 5:32
  thoughts, right? And I think that's the key thing
• 5:35
  to phrase here. Or you're not, dude, you're
• 5:45
  Internet. It's wack.
• 5:48
  Refresh. Refresh.
• 5:49
  And I'll break down this story. Refresh.
• 5:51
  Yeah, Refresh. All right, Nico.
• 5:53
  Has a really bad Internet again today.
• 5:55
  I thought we fixed that. Anyways, here is the headline
• 5:59
  for you guys, so let me see if it pops up.
• 6:01
  Yes, it does. This one's on Yahoo Finance.
• 6:04
  They are using Coindesk. The original kind of news break
• 6:06
  did come out of Bloomberg, I believe, but I don't have the
• 6:09
  Bloomberg Terminal anymore, so we're going to use Yahoo Finance
• 6:13
  here anyway. The headline is strategy
• 6:16
  qualifies for S&P 500 inclusion decision could come on Friday.
• 6:21
  So by Friday, we won't know if strategy is included into the
• 6:25
  S&P 500 now. The.
• 6:27
  Really big game changer of this is so many people have the S&P
• 6:32
  500 in their portfolios. It's basically passive income
• 6:35
  coming into, you know the S&P 500.
• 6:38
  And so if this is playing out and of course sailor stock
• 6:42
  continues to rise well this ATM basically him getting loans,
• 6:46
  acquiring more Bitcoin. The flywheel, as it's been
• 6:50
  known, is going to accelerate and go into OverDrive.
• 6:53
  And now I, I forget what the numbers is, but 10s of millions
• 6:57
  of people are now going to be passively, tactically investing
• 7:05
  in Bitcoin. Are you back?
• 7:07
  Yeah, it seems like you're. Back.
• 7:08
  I am, I am back, I am back. Sorry guys, I don't know what
• 7:11
  I've been trying to fix this for the last week or so and I don't
• 7:16
  know, there's just, I don't know hotel Wi-Fi.
• 7:18
  But the point that I wanted to make is this point, and I think
• 7:22
  it's very, very fitting for Opti what you were talking about in
• 7:26
  the beginning of show. And this is a post by Vijay
• 7:30
  Boyapati, right? And it kind of goes along the
• 7:35
  theme that you're talking about Opti where it's like, OK, like
• 7:41
  like what is, is winter coming back, right?
• 7:45
  It is, is the is winter even a thing?
• 7:48
  Is it even a possibility anymore?
• 7:50
  And this is something that I think a lot of Bitcoiners,
• 7:54
  especially if you're like me and Opti that are like these
• 7:58
  dopamine addicts from class of 20/16/2017, you know, we're used
• 8:04
  to that parabola. We're used to that like
• 8:06
  parabolic run. Now we don't know if that is
• 8:11
  over. We might still be getting that
• 8:14
  at the end at the Q4, we're in Q4 right now, so after.
• 8:17
  September Q3Q3Q3 starts in what, like a week or two?
• 8:21
  No, dude, this is Q4. This is Q4, bro.
• 8:24
  Yeah, this is the last four months of the year.
• 8:26
  Literally today is the first year.
• 8:28
  Well, it's the last three months, Bro 4.
• 8:30
  Four quarters, three months come.
• 8:32
  On, you're right, you're right, you're right, you're absolutely
• 8:34
  right. But the point is, is that Q4 of
• 8:37
  the year after the halving tends to be explosive, right?
• 8:42
  And we're a month away from that.
• 8:45
  But one of the things that I posted this morning was I said,
• 8:48
  hey guys, at the beginning of the year, our live stream, me
• 8:53
  and Opti would spin up a live stream and it would have 1000
• 8:56
  live viewer, like 1500 live years just on YouTube alone,
• 9:00
  right? Not even counting the other
• 9:01
  platforms and everyone was hyped out of their minds.
• 9:06
  I never forgot that that it felt like yesterday that was
• 9:09
  happening. And the reason that that was
• 9:12
  happening was because of the new administration coming in and the
• 9:17
  day Trump was inaugurated. You know what the Bitcoin price
• 9:20
  was 109,009 months later, Nine months a baby.
• 9:29
  It gets developed and birthed in nine months.
• 9:32
  It takes nine months for that process to happen.
• 9:34
  It's a long time. Think about it, a year of your
• 9:38
  life, almost a year of your life has passed and the price of
• 9:42
  Bitcoin is at $108,745. And what has happened in between
• 9:49
  was the price went down to 76. This is the year after the
• 9:54
  having like, this is what is going on right now where this
• 9:59
  is, this is weird. This is not what we're used to.
• 10:01
  And I know you get a lot of, and I, and I have so much respect
• 10:05
  for these guys. And I and I admire their work
• 10:07
  and admire the, you know, the, the stuff that they're doing and
• 10:11
  the articles they're putting together and, and, and the
• 10:13
  analytics. And I agree with a lot of them.
• 10:16
  But look, guys, the reality is this.
• 10:19
  It's a very simple reality. If the price hasn't moved in
• 10:23
  nine months, we're not in a bull market.
• 10:26
  It's not by definition, it's not a bull market.
• 10:28
  Someone in the chat saying BTC stablecoin, Yeah, of course
• 10:33
  that's what it feels like. And this is what I've been
• 10:35
  joking about. And a lot of people are making
• 10:37
  fun of me, you know, and they say, but Nico, it's been going
• 10:40
  good. And I know I'm nitpicking the
• 10:42
  the time, OK? Because to be fair, you know,
• 10:46
  bitcoins performed fantastically over the last three years.
• 10:50
  It's it's performed incredibly. So it's done super, super well,
• 10:56
  don't get me wrong. But this is the year after the
• 10:59
  halving. Historically, this is when price
• 11:02
  number goes up. Now we can still get that in Q4,
• 11:06
  right? Everyone knows October is very
• 11:09
  famous for that. But what if October doesn't
• 11:11
  happen? What if we don't get an October?
• 11:14
  What if moving forward and Vijay Boyapati said this and I know
• 11:19
  someone else said this who's really smart?
• 11:21
  He said the path of maximum pain is perhaps the path of maximum
• 11:25
  boredom. Slow grind up followed by
• 11:30
  periodic but fairly shallow resets with no blow off top and
• 11:36
  no gut turning. Corrections bro.
• 11:41
  Oh Opti, how do you feel about that?
• 11:44
  That was posted the last day of August, so yesterday.
• 11:48
  How do you feel about that post? Honestly, the more, the longer
• 11:52
  we are going in this year, the more I am starting to really
• 11:56
  lean into we're going to be bored to death to a million.
• 11:58
  Like we've been joking for a while.
• 12:01
  You know, you pump crab or pump, dump crab, repeat.
• 12:05
  And that's like the cycle we're at.
• 12:08
  With that being said, though, I, I'm still waiting for the
• 12:11
  parabolic run here. And, and this is just like a
• 12:14
  vibe check, you know, like I'm, I'm in your walking vibe check
• 12:17
  here, 'cause you, you guys see me go through the emotions every
• 12:19
  single day. And as much as I really, I was
• 12:22
  literally complaining about this morning with Nico, like I'm
• 12:25
  like, man, can we get a pump, man?
• 12:27
  Like can we get a pump? And then we went down like, you
• 12:29
  know, the whale numbers right now of, of how much coin they're
• 12:32
  dropping. And like, man, we're so broke
• 12:34
  compared to these whales. Like this sucks.
• 12:38
  As much as I really would love and I, I'm basically at this
• 12:42
  point need a pump just to like feel something again.
• 12:44
  I'm just like dead inside here. I would.
• 12:47
  I would, honestly. Prefer.
• 12:49
  This playing out and having less of a the bear market, like if we
• 12:53
  have no more bear market ever again.
• 12:55
  I am so with that because I think I'm more traumatized of
• 12:58
  the last bear market than I am of the 2021 double top.
• 13:02
  The last bear market was brutal for us.
• 13:05
  You know we we fully committed to simply Bitcoin during the
• 13:08
  bear. It was rough man you know being
• 13:11
  all in on Bitcoin in every aspect of your life is rough
• 13:15
  during a bear market. So I would love to eliminate
• 13:17
  bear markets. I'm totally with that That
• 13:19
  sounds way nicer to me. Hey, if that means we're a
• 13:22
  stablecoin now I will take the stability of Bitcoin and not
• 13:25
  have 80% drawdowns again. No, I really want another pump
• 13:30
  Nico I I need I need some games. I I not not only for the Fiat
• 13:33
  price, it's really for the dopamine kick like waking up
• 13:36
  every morning and seeing the price just start ripping.
• 13:38
  It's just so much more fun. You know, I, I, I like, I love
• 13:41
  bear markets, but I love just how stupid everyone gets on
• 13:44
  Twitter during the bull runs. They're just so much fun.
• 13:47
  Everyone's losing their minds. That's the fun I want.
• 13:50
  That's the fun I'm looking for for Q4.
• 13:52
  So who knows, man? We are addicts.
• 13:55
  We legitimately are addicts. I'm not even going to lie about
• 13:59
  you. I'm an addict for the price.
• 14:02
  Anyways, Niko, keep going. Yeah, keep going.
• 14:05
  No, you absolutely hit the nail on the head, man.
• 14:07
  I think you know, I I think especially if you're from the
• 14:10
  earlier classes, you know this, this is uneventful.
• 14:16
  I don't care what anyone says. I just do not care.
• 14:20
  I don't care. I know, I understand that what
• 14:24
  you're saying, the argument that what you're saying.
• 14:26
  I don't want to name any names there because these guys are my
• 14:29
  friends, right? But like, I get what you're
• 14:33
  saying in terms of like, OK, Nico, but like, All in all,
• 14:36
  we're up. Like, we're doing really, really
• 14:39
  well. We're up 16% year, year to date,
• 14:44
  Nico, it's so great. Man, I get that argument.
• 14:48
  I get that argument, and it's a true argument.
• 14:50
  Like if you look at the last three years in Bitcoin
• 14:53
  percentage terms, yeah, fantastic, fantastic return.
• 14:58
  You cannot deny that, right? The bottom was 16,000 and we're
• 15:02
  at 108,000. It's a fantastic return.
• 15:05
  Where else are you going to get those types of return?
• 15:07
  They don't exist unless you take you take a huge risk and Bitcoin
• 15:11
  like I, I, I've seen Bitcoin as a sure thing for a long time
• 15:14
  now, right. So, you know, that's the
• 15:17
  conversation. I think that that post by VJ
• 15:20
  kind of summarizes it like what if the era of parabolas is over?
• 15:26
  What if we are now entering bitcoins, a maturing asset.
• 15:32
  The market cap is so big that you know what it's going to go
• 15:37
  up. It's just the, the, the years
• 15:40
  that it goes up 100 or 200 or 300%, those years are gone.
• 15:45
  You know, those years are gone, those years are gone.
• 15:47
  Those years don't exist anymore, but a Goodyear could still be
• 15:51
  50%. Now, let me tell you guys
• 15:52
  something. If you guys get a 50% return on
• 15:57
  on your investment in a year, you're crushing the game.
• 16:02
  You're doing really well, right? So and now if you compound that,
• 16:06
  because that's the beauty of Bitcoin, it's not just 50% one
• 16:10
  year and then it goes down, it's 50% compounding.
• 16:15
  Now, if you take a look at Sailor's theory, right, he
• 16:18
  believes it's going to go from 40 down to 30 and then
• 16:22
  eventually down to 20 over the next 20 over the next 20 years.
• 16:27
  If you compound those types of returns year over year for 20
• 16:32
  years, that's how you get to $13 million per coin.
• 16:36
  I think he actually even updated his his price prediction to like
• 16:39
  something like 2024 million, right?
• 16:42
  So, yeah, I mean, that's effing fantastic.
• 16:46
  Like that's a that's an incredible, incredible,
• 16:50
  incredible, incredible return. But again, as Bitcoiners, we are
• 16:56
  spoiled children. We're spoiled children, Opti
• 16:59
  like, let's just admit it. Let's admit we have a problem.
• 17:02
  Let's admit that we are spoiled, right?
• 17:05
  Let let's just. Admit I I just admitted I'm an
• 17:08
  addict. I all right, guys, first step is
• 17:11
  admitting I'm an addict. OK?
• 17:13
  We we are admitting we are price addict.
• 17:16
  Yeah, I'm a price addict here. But hey, Nico, actually you said
• 17:19
  something and it reminded me of a different story.
• 17:21
  And, and I'm, I'm don't I, I'm going to cover this S&P 500 news
• 17:25
  for you, but this was also on Yahoo this morning.
• 17:28
  And it's literally, you know, and, and we're not here to like
• 17:32
  confirm our bias via Yahoo news, but they're saying exactly this.
• 17:36
  You know, Bitcoin is getting boring.
• 17:37
  That could open more doors for the crypto asset on Wall Street.
• 17:40
  And essentially the first paragraph is like the wild price
• 17:43
  swings has come down this year. Key reason JP Morgan analysts
• 17:47
  are saying that companies rapidly stockpiling the asset is
• 17:50
  probably the reason. And then going further down
• 17:52
  here, where is this? There's a quote here.
• 17:58
  So it goes the by lowering Bitcoin volatility, these new
• 18:02
  buyers can make Bitcoin quote more attractive from a valuation
• 18:05
  point of view, adding that as its volatility drops, Bitcoin
• 18:08
  could become more a more competitive alternative to gold.
• 18:12
  And while volatility doesn't equal outright investment risk,
• 18:15
  it represents a key component. So, you know as much as we, as
• 18:19
  you know, Bitcoin price junkies want to.
• 18:22
  See it RIP. Again, there's a whole new
• 18:24
  investor in the space and this does lead into.
• 18:27
  If MicroStrategy does get added to the S&P 500, that they're
• 18:31
  obviously looking at Bitcoin, yes, they want returns.
• 18:34
  And like Nigo keeps saying, you know what, fifteen 3050%
• 18:37
  returns, like those are good returns.
• 18:39
  If you are looking at from the Wall Street perspective, from
• 18:42
  our perspective, it's like, man, we don't even get up out of bed
• 18:45
  for a 15% return here, you know, but the last three years we're
• 18:49
  up like 650% or something like that.
• 18:52
  So let's break this down a little bit because this is
• 18:55
  probably what is fundamentally shifting.
• 18:57
  And I don't know if you guys have been seeing I, I've been
• 18:59
  mentioning Mitchell Harto on here a lot.
• 19:01
  We're seeing more people kind of catch on to this trend that the
• 19:05
  market is changing. It's always different because
• 19:08
  you know, as the Zencoe and goes, you never step into the
• 19:10
  same river twice. But things are fundamentally
• 19:13
  changing because there is a whole new investor.
• 19:15
  And as I've been kind of covering lately, this idea that
• 19:18
  institutional capital is here and retail is getting freaking
• 19:22
  swept up by institutions right now.
• 19:24
  They're acquiring all of the Bitcoin that's being released.
• 19:27
  There's no retail interest right now.
• 19:28
  The volume is dead. And this new investor is looking
• 19:32
  at Bitcoin a little differently. They do want to see it less
• 19:36
  volatile. Now, does this mean the ETFs and
• 19:39
  all that has neutered all the fun here in Bitcoin?
• 19:41
  And I know there's probably people in the chat like I
• 19:43
  remember when you guys wouldn't talk about the price, bro.
• 19:45
  Like you guys are talking about that constantly.
• 19:47
  And it's like this is where we are right now.
• 19:49
  This is the news. This is what's fundamentally
• 19:51
  changing here. Yes, there's still the
• 19:53
  separation of money and state. Yes, there's still a lot of
• 19:56
  freedom minded, you know, tech dystopia news that we can be
• 20:00
  covering. But the main question on
• 20:02
  everyone's head right now is what is going on right now?
• 20:05
  This is supposed to be the parabolic run and we haven't
• 20:08
  seen it, as we've said, you know, since what, nine months?
• 20:11
  We're basically a stable coin. It's been 109 K Bitcoin for over
• 20:15
  9 months at this point. But as we're seeing new
• 20:19
  investors come into the space, as we're seeing a whole new risk
• 20:22
  tolerance come into the space, it is going for a moment to kind
• 20:26
  of shift markets. Structure and if you're coming
• 20:29
  in from you know, say JP Morgan BlackRock, you don't want to see
• 20:34
  crazy downside, you know price movement.
• 20:38
  So this volatility is probably a sign of good things for other
• 20:43
  people for us bitcoiners were like, man, this is this is not
• 20:47
  what we signed up for here but anyways, let's let's break this
• 20:50
  down a little bit and then we'll chat about it.
• 20:51
  So strategy qualifies for S&P 500 inclusion decision and it
• 20:55
  could come on Friday. Micro strategy now officially
• 20:58
  strategy has officially qualified for potential
• 21:01
  inclusion into the S&P 500 after posting one of the strongest
• 21:06
  quarters in its history in the second quarter of 2025, the
• 21:09
  company reported $14 billion in operating income and $10 billion
• 21:15
  in net income, equal to 32.6 dollars in diluted earnings per
• 21:20
  share. Quarterly revenue came in at
• 21:22
  114.5 million, a modest 2.7% increase.
• 21:26
  Year over year with with. Subscription services rising
• 21:29
  nearly 70%. The results mark a dramatic turn
• 21:32
  around from prior years when impairment charges tied to
• 21:34
  Bitcoin depressed reported earnings.
• 21:36
  Of course, the fair value accounting is now in play here.
• 21:40
  They were the first ones to adopt this.
• 21:42
  And so Strategy can now recognize its unrealized gains.
• 21:45
  And of course, with it around 100K, the company booked massive
• 21:50
  quote paper gains that transformed its balance sheet.
• 21:53
  Now as of June 30th, Strategy held 597,000.
• 21:56
  I think it's higher than this. I think they're in the 600K and
• 21:59
  the firm highlighted a Bitcoin yield of 19.7 year today, a key
• 22:03
  performance indicator. Now they raised their
• 22:06
  guidelines. Of course, everyone kind of saw
• 22:07
  this the other day and they kind of moved some of the things
• 22:10
  around. They are taking a little more
• 22:12
  risk right now and people started to completely freak out
• 22:16
  on the Internet. And so here's the here's the key
• 22:19
  here. The next potential window for
• 22:21
  inclusion is September 2025 rebalance, with announcements
• 22:25
  expected September 5th and changes taking effect September
• 22:29
  19th. While the S&P Dow Jones Indices
• 22:32
  Committee retains discretion strategies, qualification
• 22:34
  underscores the growing role of Bitcoin in mainstream financial
• 22:38
  markets. That is probably the big key
• 22:41
  here. Again, with their new
• 22:44
  qualification, under score underscores the growing role of
• 22:46
  Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets.
• 22:48
  If 2025 doesn't have a great price here, what we are seeing
• 22:53
  is Bitcoin is, for lack of better terms being accepted
• 22:57
  here. They are looking at Bitcoin now.
• 22:59
  Like holy shit, we actually have to hold this thing.
• 23:01
  This is no longer anything we can ignore.
• 23:04
  The biggest players in the world are looking into Bitcoin and it
• 23:07
  would be the first of course, Bitcoin treasury company need to
• 23:10
  enter the benchmark index symbolizing a landmark moment.
• 23:13
  So if this does happen, this would be one of those defining,
• 23:17
  defining moments here in Bitcoin's history.
• 23:21
  And I, I've been saying 2025, I think is one of those years
• 23:25
  where maybe we don't see the purchasing power increase that,
• 23:28
  that we've seen in the past. But it will be one of those
• 23:31
  years where we look back in 2025 was like that defining year
• 23:34
  where everything was laid out and then Bitcoin can really make
• 23:38
  its run. So if the market does change
• 23:41
  here, I think that is going to set up what Sailor is saying of
• 23:45
  no winter ever again because there does seem to be an
• 23:49
  infinite bid building up right now under Bitcoin.
• 23:53
  And hey, that just means all of our savings.
• 23:56
  That means our perfect money. Our money is just going to
• 23:59
  increase in value and we can, you know, feel a little better
• 24:02
  about it. But why isn't the price going
• 24:05
  up? I think that's the the the
• 24:07
  $1,000,000, the million satoshi question.
• 24:10
  Someone someone says. So basically, it's over.
• 24:15
  Back it up, it's done. I saw someone in the chat talk
• 24:20
  about the S curve, right? And this is kind of like a
• 24:23
  theory behind a lot of Bitcoiners, right?
• 24:26
  A lot of bitcoiners have this theory, which is the S curve
• 24:30
  adoption, right? So you have, you know, the
• 24:33
  innovators, early adopters, early majority.
• 24:37
  My personal opinion is we're like in the early majority
• 24:42
  phase, in the beginning of the early majority phase.
• 24:45
  We're no longer in the early adopter phase.
• 24:48
  No, no, no, no, we're way past that, way past the innovator
• 24:52
  phase. We're definitely in the early
• 24:54
  majority phase going up this curve.
• 24:57
  Now the question is, and this is like the key difference between
• 25:01
  people's opinions, right? By the way, AUS fantastic show
• 25:05
  today, 754 people watching live on YouTube.
• 25:09
  Shout out to the rumble audience coming in strong and then on X
• 25:12
  coming in strong as well. So if you guys are enjoying the
• 25:14
  show, make sure to smash that like button really, really helps
• 25:18
  with the algo. So smash the like button share
• 25:20
  the video. If you guys are enjoying the
• 25:21
  content. This is simply Bitcoin live.
• 25:25
  So let's talk about this right? So have we crossed the chasm?
• 25:28
  Opti? Have we crossed the chasm?
• 25:31
  I think we're crossing it. I think we're crossing it right
• 25:34
  now. I think this is what the chasm
• 25:36
  is like. We're seeing new interest from
• 25:40
  new investors in Bitcoin. We're seeing Bitcoin talked
• 25:43
  about at the highest levels. We're seeing nation states start
• 25:46
  to kind of dip their toes into Bitcoin.
• 25:48
  We're seeing, you know, the ETF for Bitcoin just being launched.
• 25:52
  So it's what, a year old now? It's like almost two years old
• 25:56
  now, a year, nine months or something like that.
• 25:58
  And it is the best performing ETF ever.
• 26:02
  Like we're seeing Sailor just finally being able to tap into
• 26:06
  these capital markets. It's like, I think this is the
• 26:08
  chasm being crossed right now, like we are crossing the Rubicon
• 26:11
  as we speak, and this is probably why we are seeing, you
• 26:15
  know, just a bunch of funky movements in the market.
• 26:18
  We're seeing things like not really play out how it's it
• 26:21
  happened in the past. It does seem like the, you know,
• 26:24
  four year cycle might be changing here.
• 26:27
  It looks like we're in the longest bear cycle ever.
• 26:31
  It's like things are finally changing here.
• 26:33
  So I I'm, I'm leaning on we are at the chasm right now, like
• 26:36
  we're in the beginning of it. Maybe 2025 is the year.
• 26:39
  The chasm. It's a chasm, chasm, chasm.
• 26:44
  I think you're right. And then we have let me
• 26:47
  pronounce that name correctly. We have sat wise Jinx in the
• 26:50
  chat and here's the the big difference between I think what
• 26:54
  Bitcoiners are talking about. So like are we on this type of
• 26:59
  bell curve adoption or are we on this type of bell curve
• 27:02
  adoption? S curve, S curve, right.
• 27:05
  So the bell curve and then the S curve, right.
• 27:08
  And if we are in the S curve, where where is the S where is
• 27:12
  the curve? Right dude, Chasm.
• 27:14
  Right here, bro. Chasm.
• 27:17
  You think it's the chasm. So the chasm is the sideways,
• 27:21
  the sideways sideways. Sideways.
• 27:23
  Honestly, is that not what we're?
• 27:26
  Not what? We're doing right now sad, flat
• 27:28
  and sideways. I want to know what the audience
• 27:31
  thinks. We're about to break out 800
• 27:32
  live viewers. Guys, where do you think we are
• 27:35
  in the Bitcoin price adoption? Wait Nico, so you go go, go
• 27:40
  down. Does this have a time on the on
• 27:43
  the X axis? Is this is there time?
• 27:45
  No. There's RND effort which I don't
• 27:47
  think it applies. To this so wait.
• 27:50
  Let me, let me let me do a finger.
• 27:52
  Yeah, yeah. So the next five years bro, is
• 27:55
  when we. Is when we get the real run up
• 27:58
  past the mill. That's just gonna blow up.
• 28:02
  Could you imagine that that would that would take everyone
• 28:04
  by storm. Well, let's I I really.
• 28:06
  Want to know what that's my thesis?
• 28:07
  Yeah, let let we'll we'll chat you guys talk about in the chat,
• 28:11
  but that's literally the thesis here.
• 28:13
  It's like, look, guys, you understand Bitcoin and even
• 28:18
  within our quote UN quote industry, there's still a lot of
• 28:21
  people that are shit corners that don't really understand
• 28:23
  what game is being played here. There's still people on Wall
• 28:27
  Street that probably haven't even taken the time to
• 28:30
  understand what Bitcoin is. They're just maybe here, you
• 28:33
  know, throwing, throwing a little bit of chump change at it
• 28:35
  and being like, whatever, like give me the games.
• 28:38
  If you kind of take that conversation further and you
• 28:42
  talk to people that aren't Bitcoiners, that aren't on
• 28:44
  Twitter, like your friends and your family, most of them
• 28:47
  probably still think we're crazy.
• 28:49
  They still, they don't understand the fundamental
• 28:51
  problem. And and that just leads me to
• 28:54
  believe it's like someone said in the chat earlier, we're like
• 28:56
  not even 1% of the bond markets right now and everyone thinks
• 29:00
  it's over. It's like, I think it's just
• 29:01
  starting to begin. There's not that much capital in
• 29:05
  Bitcoin. There's not that many people
• 29:07
  that are that fervent about what Bitcoin is and trying to
• 29:10
  accumulate Bitcoin. And so if you think the gains
• 29:12
  are over, you think it's diminishing returns.
• 29:14
  It's like we're not even at like 1% of the total population, like
• 29:19
  wait till we get to, you know, 5 or 10%.
• 29:21
  And that's when the real fun's happening.
• 29:23
  But you know, I guess, I guess This is why we can't have nice
• 29:27
  things, Nico is because. Everyone's asleep at the wheel.
• 29:33
  Oh my God. So guys, let us know.
• 29:35
  I want to go. I want to go.
• 29:37
  I want to see what everyone's thinking.
• 29:39
  Yeah, this is the best thing to cater right here, Nico.
• 29:41
  Only 700. People watching this globally
• 29:43
  were early. Yeah, yeah.
• 29:46
  I mean for being the number one watch live show, right, that,
• 29:49
  that definitely says we're early for sure still in innovators,
• 29:54
  someone says Sublime says we're in the it's over section.
• 29:59
  Yes, Curve, let me see early, early majority, early majority S
• 30:08
  curve, I would, I would agree with that.
• 30:10
  But I think, I think Opti's right.
• 30:11
  We're in the cash. Now this one's the best. 1 John,
• 30:14
  we're in the cash. John Tinkler.
• 30:16
  Junior look at the adoption. Percentages at the bottom of the
• 30:19
  chart. We are in the first phase.
• 30:21
  Honestly, I kind of agree with that.
• 30:24
  You think so dude? Well, that's it bro.
• 30:28
  We are literally less than I, I think the numbers are inflated.
• 30:32
  I don't think we're at 3% of global adoption of Bitcoin yet.
• 30:36
  Like maybe that's the official number, but it I don't think
• 30:39
  we're at 3% yet. I don't know, I don't know.
• 30:43
  If you guys are enjoying today's show, make sure to smash that
• 30:45
  like button. We still have a ton of content
• 30:47
  leftover for you guys. We got Jeff Booth, he went on
• 30:52
  Kitco News. He was dropping some hot fire.
• 30:55
  We're going to be talking about that.
• 30:57
  And then also some interesting news coming out of Metaplanet.
• 31:01
  So for anyone who doesn't know a lot of these treasury companies,
• 31:05
  in percentage terms, their stocks are down like 5060%, but
• 31:12
  what are they doing? They're still trying to raise
• 31:15
  money to buy more Bitcoin. How does that work, right?
• 31:19
  Think about that for a second. So like, if your stock is down
• 31:24
  50 or 60%, how is the market convinced to give you more money
• 31:30
  to buy more Bitcoin? Like, what does that work?
• 31:32
  And again, that's never happened before.
• 31:34
  We're in completely uncharted territory for the Bitcoin
• 31:38
  treasury companies. And there is a phenomenal
• 31:41
  article written by Bloomberg talking about just that.
• 31:44
  And of course, Opti's got something special for you guys
• 31:47
  during the culture like always. But before we get into all of
• 31:51
  that, I do want to give a very special shout out to Simply
• 31:54
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  All right everybody, no more delay, let's start the show.
• 33:08
  We have tons to talk about. Hit the smash button, we'll be
• 33:12
  right back. I want to give a shout out to
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• 34:54
  At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $108,600.
• 35:00
  Block height 912,000 $729 or 29 not dollars.
• 35:06
  Sats per dollar 921 Sats per dollar Market cap 2.16 trillion
• 35:14
  Bitcoin versus gold market cap 8.76% decline from all time
• 35:19
  high. If you're buying Bitcoin right
• 35:20
  now, you're getting it at a almost 13% discount.
• 35:23
  Realize monetary inflation sitting at .84%.
• 35:29
  In the grand scheme of things, we are just getting the party
• 35:32
  started anyways. The one the only the legendary
• 35:37
  Jeff Booth went on Kik Go and he's talking about something
• 35:41
  really interesting. When you really understand it
• 35:44
  and you're constantly a buyer. There's never a price that's too
• 35:48
  high. I completely agree with that
• 35:51
  statement, but I can't explain it like Jeff Booth explains it.
• 35:54
  So let's let's check out the clip and then me and Opti will
• 35:57
  talk about it any. Volatile any, any legitimacy to
• 36:03
  those concerns on volatility when it comes to, hey, you know,
• 36:06
  we're looking at these stock charts every day.
• 36:08
  I mean, sovereign funds aren't there to trade.
• 36:10
  So if you're not there to trade, then you should be in this.
• 36:13
  If you're in the to trade, if you're trying to that, then you
• 36:16
  shouldn't be in this. So if you're, if you're levering
• 36:18
  into to something that's changing the world, a new
• 36:21
  structure for the world that can't be cheated, that is
• 36:24
  repricing everything and you're trading that, then then you
• 36:29
  could get wiped out because and that's just that's just an
• 36:32
  early, that's an early evolution of an understanding of this,
• 36:36
  that fear and greed on both sides are trying to trade this
• 36:40
  asset. But when you really understand
• 36:42
  it, you're constantly a buyer. You there's never a price that's
• 36:46
  too high. I buy in a low.
• 36:48
  I buy in the high that constantly like because I don't
• 36:51
  think about the piece of paper that's being manipulated pricing
• 36:54
  the world. OK, so let's talk about what
• 36:57
  Jeff Booth says, right? This is something that Michael
• 37:00
  Saylor has said as well, right? What is it that you are buying?
• 37:05
  It's a very important question because right now like any
• 37:13
  disposable income I have that I'm not using to, you know, pay
• 37:19
  for a living expenses that I have for me and my family, why
• 37:24
  would I put that in? Why would I leave that in cash?
• 37:28
  Like why? It makes no sense.
• 37:32
  There's zero sense to it. If I know that cash is going to
• 37:36
  buy me less goods next year, why would I leave that cat?
• 37:41
  Why would I leave that extra money in?
• 37:43
  Cash makes no sense now, I don't think, and I know this might be
• 37:49
  unpopular with some bitcoiners, but right now we're still not in
• 37:54
  a world where you can live completely off your Bitcoin.
• 37:58
  I think you still need Fiat. Like if you run, specifically if
• 38:01
  you run a business, not all landlords, not all mortgage
• 38:06
  providers, not all your bills could be paid in Bitcoin.
• 38:10
  Like I know that there's companies that facilitate that,
• 38:12
  that make that easier, that make that easy, but you can't do it
• 38:16
  directly with your stack. It's not like at the end of the
• 38:18
  month you go and you take your hardware wallet and you're like,
• 38:20
  OK, dot dot dot dot, let me just pay off these bills.
• 38:23
  There's a process that you need to go through in order to, you
• 38:26
  know, to do that. And I know that there's Bitcoin
• 38:28
  companies that that facilitate that and they're awesome and we
• 38:32
  love here. We love them at simply Bitcoin.
• 38:34
  But let's just say Fiat is still somehow involved, right?
• 38:39
  So if you have that, that pot of Fiat that you're going to tap
• 38:44
  into to live off of every month, right?
• 38:47
  What about that extra? So like, let's say you have, you
• 38:50
  know, 10 or 20%, you know, you're getting to the end of the
• 38:52
  month, you know that you have income coming in the next month
• 38:55
  and you're like, what am I going to do with this extra money that
• 38:57
  I have? Are you just going to leave it
• 38:59
  in the account? Maybe you want to spend it, you
• 39:02
  maybe you want to enjoy yourself.
• 39:04
  Maybe you want to go out and have a nice dinner.
• 39:06
  Maybe you want to go on vacation, whatever.
• 39:07
  But let's say it's just a regular month and you're not
• 39:10
  doing any of those things. Very what are you going to do?
• 39:13
  Are you going to leave it in cash?
• 39:14
  No, you're going to buy Bitcoin. Now, Does it matter if Bitcoin
• 39:18
  is at all time highs? No, you're going to, you're
• 39:21
  going to buy Bitcoin because you know that it doesn't matter
• 39:25
  whether the price of Bitcoin is at 108,000 today.
• 39:29
  There's a pretty reasonably high probability that the purchasing
• 39:36
  power of that said Bitcoin the next year is going to be higher
• 39:40
  than it is this year. Then why in the hell would I
• 39:44
  leave my money in Fiat? And that's what Jeff Booth is
• 39:47
  talking about. And now one of the other pieces
• 39:49
  of wisdom that I'll drop for you guys is don't denominate your
• 39:55
  wealth in dollars or EUR or whatever local currency you
• 40:01
  have. Denominate your wealth in
• 40:04
  Bitcoin. Your life will completely
• 40:07
  change. It will completely change if you
• 40:10
  denominate your wealth in Fiat. It's like a you're on a you're
• 40:15
  on a rat wheel like it it you're that goal is going to $1,000,000
• 40:21
  today isn't what $1,000,000 was 10 years ago, $1,000,000 today
• 40:25
  isn't what $1,000,000 was 20 years ago.
• 40:28
  It's not the same. One Bitcoin today is not the
• 40:33
  same that what what one Bitcoin was 10 years ago.
• 40:37
  It's that it's the exact opposite of what Fiat goes
• 40:40
  through. So Fiat buys you less, Bitcoin
• 40:44
  buys you more, right? So with that logic, this is what
• 40:48
  Jeff Booth is talking about. Even at Bitcoin at $1,000,000 if
• 40:54
  I have extra income or $10 million if I have extra income,
• 41:01
  I'm not going to leave it in something that is devaluing over
• 41:06
  time. That makes absolutely no sense
• 41:08
  for me. I'm going to put it in Bitcoin
• 41:12
  or I'm going to put it in something that I think is going
• 41:16
  to outperform Bitcoin, which is very, very few things.
• 41:21
  I might add very few things. I'm going to repeat that.
• 41:25
  Very few things are going to outperform Bitcoin.
• 41:30
  Very few things, very few stocks, very few real estate
• 41:36
  investments, very few things are going to outperform Bitcoin.
• 41:40
  So if you don't think you're going to outperform Bitcoin,
• 41:43
  then why not just buy more Bitcoin?
• 41:46
  That's what Jeff Booth is talking about.
• 41:49
  If you have savings, if you have some extra money on the side,
• 41:52
  what are you going to do with it?
• 41:53
  You're going to buy Bitcoin. That's what he meant.
• 41:57
  So it doesn't matter where what the price is.
• 41:59
  The price could be a $10 million per coin.
• 42:02
  You're still going to buy Bitcoin because you don't want
• 42:04
  to hold on to Fiat because Fiat is devaluing that.
• 42:08
  That's the simple truth. Now, are you going to get those
• 42:11
  100X or 200X gains and, you know, in a short period of time?
• 42:17
  I mean, we, we, the whole beginning of the show, we were
• 42:19
  just discussing about it. Me and Opti were throwing a pity
• 42:22
  party for ourselves, really thinking about it.
• 42:23
  Like, Oh my God, bro, the 2017 glory days are over.
• 42:27
  It's done. It's, it's over.
• 42:29
  Wrap it up, bro. You know, like now we're a
• 42:32
  stonks channel, I guess. And like, just like we're going
• 42:35
  to be happy with 2030% a year, OK, so be it.
• 42:39
  But still a 20 to 30% year over year growth in Bitcoin terms is
• 42:48
  effing gnarly. It's crazy.
• 42:52
  It's crazy, right? So Opti, I want to take your, I
• 42:55
  want to get your take on that, bro, because like, it's not
• 42:59
  buying Bitcoin like I, I, I would say that's a wrong.
• 43:01
  You're, you're, you're phrasing it wrong.
• 43:04
  You're saying it wrong if you say it that way, because if you
• 43:07
  say it that way, it almost as if it sounds like, OK, I'm
• 43:10
  investing it. No, you're not it.
• 43:12
  It's like I'm thinking about it and like, look, if I have
• 43:15
  disposable income, if I have savings that I know I'm not
• 43:18
  going to spend, am I going to just leave it in my bank
• 43:22
  account? Why would I do that?
• 43:25
  That's stupid. No, I'm going to buy Bitcoin
• 43:27
  with it, but it that like let me, I'm going to exchange my
• 43:31
  dollars for Bitcoin because dollars are inferior to Bitcoin.
• 43:37
  That's how I would say it exactly.
• 43:39
  Someone said in the chat exchange slash buy.
• 43:42
  I wouldn't call it buy, you're not buying.
• 43:44
  I would say exchange. Nico, this is exchange overbuy.
• 43:48
  Yeah, exactly. So I would say the word is
• 43:50
  exchange Bitcoin at 100 million in 50 years with 17% a year.
• 43:57
  Nico in the chat. Dude, we're going to get bored
• 44:03
  to. Death for a. 100 me and opti
• 44:04
  you're going to be like 80 bro in like 50 years.
• 44:09
  Bearish. Super bearish.
• 44:11
  Anyways, Opti, what do you think about what Jeff Booth the.
• 44:14
  Jeff was. Dropping the fire.
• 44:16
  I love this because I, this is, I think the like final frontier
• 44:22
  of your Bitcoin journey is you're, you first get into
• 44:26
  Bitcoin and you, you know, it's just, you have to use kind of
• 44:30
  examples of things that you're familiar with to kind of wrap
• 44:33
  your head around what is going on here.
• 44:36
  And of course, all these examples really fall short.
• 44:38
  But once you get to that point, like I always joke with friends
• 44:41
  and they don't even know what I'm saying.
• 44:42
  I'm like, yeah, if I have dollars, I just like capitulate
• 44:45
  my dollars as fast as I can for Bitcoin.
• 44:47
  It's like I I sell my dollars for.
• 44:49
  Bitcoin and they're like. What are you even talking about?
• 44:52
  Like you need to, you need to, you know, stop smoking that.
• 44:55
  I'm like, you speak in English to me.
• 44:57
  But I think this is the final frontier.
• 44:59
  And we get trolled in here all the time because we we say.
• 45:03
  We, we always say like you know, you said.
• 45:07
  You measure your wealth in Bitcoin and then we literally
• 45:09
  bring up the Bitcoin price on the show every single day and
• 45:12
  it's like, guys, what? What else do we measure?
• 45:14
  Our wealth with like this, we're Americans.
• 45:17
  This is how you measure your wealth.
• 45:20
  You know, for the time being, this is this is what what we
• 45:23
  we're dealing with. Yes, it's imperfect, an
• 45:26
  imperfect metric here, but that's what everyone kind of
• 45:29
  understands as what your wealth is, is basically pricing it in
• 45:33
  dollars. Now, when you get to that final
• 45:36
  frontier of like I always joke, we're playing Pac-Man, we're
• 45:39
  playing Hungry Hippo here, it's not about dollars.
• 45:43
  It's it's about trying to acquire as much Bitcoin as
• 45:45
  possible. And yes, of course, you know,
• 45:46
  we're still human, we're still flawed, and we.
• 45:49
  Do like to? You know, basically measure
• 45:52
  ourselves up to, compared to where we were.
• 45:54
  And we used dollars to do that. Like that's what we used to
• 45:57
  survive. And I, you know, I can, I can
• 45:59
  throw down economic concepts, but that usually makes people's
• 46:02
  eyes kind of glaze over. But it's really just Gresham's
• 46:05
  law playing out in real time. It's like, I don't want this bad
• 46:08
  money, I want better money. And so therefore, if if I'm
• 46:12
  holding on to bad money, what do I want to do?
• 46:14
  I want to get that bad money into good money as quickly as
• 46:17
  possible. That's what we're doing here.
• 46:20
  And so I've been saying for a long time that, yeah, you know,
• 46:23
  when I'm talking to people, I might use just kind of, you
• 46:25
  know, like normal nomenclature here, like I might just use
• 46:28
  terms that people are used to. But when I think of this is like
• 46:31
  I am exchanging my dollars for Bitcoin the same way someone
• 46:35
  might exchange their pesos for a dollar.
• 46:38
  Like to me, this is this is this is how I think of it.
• 46:42
  Because once you kind of get to the point of this isn't just an
• 46:46
  investment, this isn't this isn't just something, you know,
• 46:49
  I want to sell for more dollars. Yes, I price some in dollars
• 46:52
  right now, but I use Bitcoin as money.
• 46:56
  I view it as the best money. And once you get to that point
• 46:59
  that Bitcoin is the best money, you you're, you're basically
• 47:02
  Jeff Booth. Here is like why?
• 47:03
  Why would you? Why?
• 47:05
  Why am I? Why would I trade this thing?
• 47:07
  This is the best thing to be holding on to.
• 47:09
  There's nothing else to be holding on to.
• 47:11
  It's literally like you got to go back to being like a 10 year
• 47:14
  old kid. It's like, remember when you
• 47:16
  used to, you know, store gold coins or pennies and you know,
• 47:20
  copper Indian Head coins under your, under your, your bed or in
• 47:24
  your Piggy Bank because you thought these were more
• 47:26
  expensive or have more value than the other ones or you even
• 47:29
  had a Piggy Bank. You're just trying to store your
• 47:32
  whatever money's coming in because it's better than
• 47:34
  whatever bubble gum or whatever, you know, you did as a kid.
• 47:38
  And that's like the game being played.
• 47:39
  It's like you want to hold on to this Bitcoin thing, you don't
• 47:43
  want to trade it. I think what we're seeing right
• 47:45
  now is the the dying last breath of people being able to actually
• 47:50
  trade this thing before it goes absolutely nuclear.
• 47:53
  And so if you are like me and I loved Jeff boost saying that
• 47:58
  because it reminded me of my early days in Bitcoin, you know,
• 48:01
  I, I did all of the, you know, I lived all of the memes.
• 48:05
  I literally I got in Bitcoin. You could literally throw a dart
• 48:08
  at any shit coin and it was going to go up in 2017.
• 48:12
  And then the market gets pulled out from under you.
• 48:14
  And the one saving grace I had was.
• 48:17
  Hey, I should probably. Learn about this Bitcoin thing
• 48:20
  and then once you understand this Bitcoin thing, there's like
• 48:23
  a there's like a maybe a time, a delay here where you're like,
• 48:25
  maybe I can trade this Bitcoin thing and I can get more
• 48:28
  bitcoins. And then the bull run happens
• 48:31
  and you're like, you get caught up in the euphoria and you're
• 48:34
  just you're just an idiot. Or rather you are self aware
• 48:37
  enough to be like, I can't out trade these algorithms here.
• 48:40
  So what am I going to do? I'm just going to keep buying it
• 48:43
  no matter what, Like I'm just going to buy it.
• 48:46
  I'm going to hold it, I'm going to store it.
• 48:48
  And soon enough you're going to be like, yeah, it was a way
• 48:51
  better decision than trying to top the, you know, time to top
• 48:55
  or looking at, at freaking chart.
• 48:56
  It's hard day and you have like 4 computers so you can out trade
• 49:00
  the algorithms. I'm like, no, I don't want to do
• 49:02
  that. Like I don't, I don't want to
• 49:03
  sit on the computer longer than I have to.
• 49:06
  I just want to Bitcoin and chill.
• 49:07
  I just want to, you know, live my life, store, store my value,
• 49:10
  my excess profits in Bitcoin, go enjoy my life.
• 49:14
  And as long as I'm not selling all the coins that are under my
• 49:18
  control, your life is better. It's like you don't need to
• 49:21
  trade this thing. You're literally you're just
• 49:23
  saving in the best money ever. It's just like you're storing
• 49:26
  the best money. It's not that difficult.
• 49:28
  I really don't get why it's that difficult.
• 49:30
  We, it's like someone said in chats, like, are we speaking
• 49:32
  English? How does this not make sense to
• 49:34
  anyone? And I think it's really all the
• 49:36
  FUD that that's been, you know, thrown at Bitcoin that a lot of
• 49:39
  people still think the best money, the real money is this
• 49:42
  paper money that is, you know, thrust on us by government.
• 49:46
  It's like, no, we have a better money.
• 49:48
  It's just taking a long time for people to wake up to the fact
• 49:50
  that we have a better money. Absolutely.
• 49:54
  I absolutely agree with you guys.
• 49:56
  It's going to be a fantastic show.
• 49:58
  We have some interesting news that you guys are probably going
• 50:02
  to want to hear about. So what happens to these
• 50:05
  treasury companies when their stocks go down, but they want to
• 50:09
  continue to raise more Bitcoin? Well, it seems like Bloomberg
• 50:12
  asked that article today about specifically about Metaplanet.
• 50:15
  Metaplanet just recently announced that they have the
• 50:18
  intention of buying 1000 more Bitcoin.
• 50:20
  That would put them at 20,000 Bitcoin, making them the 6th
• 50:23
  largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world, but their stock
• 50:28
  has dropped dramatically. So how are they doing this?
• 50:31
  We're going to have an update for you guys during the new
• 50:33
  segment. We're going to be right back in
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• 53:07
  So let's talk about this. The headline for the audio
• 53:11
  listeners is Bitcoin proxies. Chief seeks funding fix as
• 53:16
  flywheel falters. What does that mean?
• 53:21
  So the article goes into a bunch of details, but here's kind of
• 53:25
  like the key analysis of this and why what's going on?
• 53:29
  But essentially it's it's pretty simple and I'll walk you guys
• 53:33
  through it. Metaplanet is essentially trying
• 53:35
  to copy Michael Saylor's playbook in Japan, turn a
• 53:38
  regular company into a Bitcoin accumulation vehicle.
• 53:43
  Under their CEO. They've already piled up 19,000
• 53:47
  Bitcoin, and they're planning to buy 20,000 Bitcoin, but the
• 53:50
  strategy depends on keeping their stock price high relative
• 53:55
  to their Bitcoin holdings, the so-called Bitcoin Premium.
• 53:59
  That premium allows them to issue equity at favorable terms,
• 54:04
  recycle the proceeds into Bitcoin, and repeat, AKA the
• 54:08
  flywheel. The problem is their stock has
• 54:10
  dropped over 50% since June, while Bitcoin itself has written
• 54:15
  risen. That collapse in premium has
• 54:18
  weakened the financial loop with EVO Fund because warrants aren't
• 54:23
  as attractive to exercise when the stock is falling.
• 54:26
  Without fresh equity capital, their ability to keep buying
• 54:29
  Bitcoin stalls. That's why their CEO is racing
• 54:33
  to pivot to preferred shares, a more defense funding mechanism
• 54:37
  that can raise billions without diluting common shareholders as
• 54:42
  heavily. They're trying to secure
• 54:44
  authorization for up to 555 billion or 3.8 billion in
• 54:49
  prefers, which by the way, breaking news, they got that
• 54:52
  approval that just broke. I saw it on the simply Bitcoin X
• 54:57
  account, which you should definitely follow one of the
• 54:59
  best Bitcoin news AGS in the business, which could give them
• 55:02
  the ammo to quadruple their Bitcoin stash by the end of the
• 55:06
  year. The importance here is twofold
• 55:09
  First, it shows the global spread of the quote Bitcoin
• 55:13
  treasury model public companies transforming into vehicles to
• 55:18
  front run central banks and institutions in hoarding BTC.
• 55:22
  There are now over 100, 170 entities with $111 billion worth
• 55:28
  of Bitcoin, and Metaplanet is in the top ten.
• 55:31
  Second, it reveals the fragility of these strategies.
• 55:35
  They depend on investor faith in the stocks, Bitcoin premium, If
• 55:39
  that erodes, the flywheel seizes up for bitcoiners.
• 55:43
  It's significant because Metaplanet is trying to push the
• 55:47
  model into Japan, a traditionally conservative
• 55:50
  financial market, and they're bringing in Trump World figures
• 55:54
  like Eric Trump to align it with the broader pro Bitcoin policy
• 55:59
  shift under the new administration.
• 56:01
  In short, Meta Planet story underscores both the momentum
• 56:05
  and the risks of Bitcoin corporate adoption if they
• 56:09
  succeed in raising billions through preferred shares again,
• 56:13
  this has been officially approved.
• 56:15
  It could cement Japan as a major front in the Bitcoin
• 56:18
  accumulation race. If they fail, it highlights that
• 56:22
  another that only companies with strong equity momentum like
• 56:26
  sailor strategy can truly sustain the game at scale.
• 56:30
  Now, what I will say is this, and I've been saying this for a
• 56:33
  couple months now, do I think Metaplanet Nakamoto 21 or
• 56:39
  strategy or any of the big players are in trouble And we
• 56:46
  were, we asked this question. In fact, I think it's still live
• 56:49
  in the chat. We asked you guys, almost 700
• 56:52
  people have voted in this poll. We said is winter coming?
• 56:56
  Meaning are there going to be any more bear markets?
• 56:59
  72% Opti the the vast majority, that's not a good sign.
• 57:04
  The vast majority of people have said that there will be no bear
• 57:09
  markets anymore, right? Bear market confirmed.
• 57:13
  Yeah, I know, right. So 72% have, have basically.
• 57:18
  So almost 700 people have voted that there will be no bear
• 57:21
  markets anymore. But here's the thing.
• 57:25
  Like I, I, I, I vividly remember this, I don't know if you guys
• 57:30
  were around for this, but strategy Sailor first announced
• 57:34
  the Bitcoin strategy in the last bull market heading into 2021.
• 57:40
  And then he had to endure the bear market of 2022.
• 57:45
  And boy, that was brutal. Like Sailor was down billions of
• 57:49
  dollars in his investment now because he huddled and he was
• 57:53
  actually able to buy more than his stock recovered.
• 57:57
  And the guy looked like a genius, like we all look like a
• 57:59
  genius when we do that. By the way, it's called paying
• 58:02
  your price of tuition. It's something extremely
• 58:04
  familiar here in Bitcoin circles.
• 58:07
  So yes, I mean, to kind of summarize the point, Opti, what
• 58:14
  happens, bro? What happens when we do get a
• 58:17
  downturn? Because thinking that we're not
• 58:19
  going to get a downturn is ridiculous.
• 58:21
  Now, are we going to get 80% downturns?
• 58:24
  Maybe. You never know in Bitcoin,
• 58:27
  right? But maybe those days are over.
• 58:29
  Remember you say, Nico, those days are over.
• 58:31
  Now that Black Rock's here, institutions are here,
• 58:33
  governments are buying Bitcoin, The days of 80% drawdowns are
• 58:37
  long gone. They don't exist anymore.
• 58:39
  OK, but what if they come back? How are those companies going to
• 58:45
  raise money to buy Bitcoin? And I think that's the question,
• 58:50
  because I remember Sailor changed some of the parameters
• 58:55
  regarding his stock because of the downturn, because of the
• 59:00
  like again, if you take a look at some of these treasury
• 59:04
  companies, they're not completely correlated with the
• 59:07
  price of Bitcoin. So and then this goes back to
• 59:10
  something that I was saying during the news, during the
• 59:12
  numbers segment. If you denominate your wealth in
• 59:17
  Bitcoin, other investments don't make sense, right?
• 59:22
  Like, why would I buy Apple stock if I can buy Bitcoin?
• 59:26
  And Bitcoin's going to outperform Apple stock?
• 59:30
  Oh, and not only that, I could take self custody of that
• 59:31
  Bitcoin, why would I buy Apple stock?
• 59:33
  Makes no sense, right? So again, the only reason.
• 59:38
  As to why you're? Buying one of these treasury
• 59:41
  companies is because you believe it's going to outperform
• 59:44
  Bitcoin. If it doesn't outperform
• 59:47
  Bitcoin, there is no reason as to why you should buy a treasury
• 59:51
  company. They're like, you're literally
• 59:53
  setting money, you're setting Bitcoin on fire.
• 59:56
  So the only reason you should be buying a treasury company is
• 59:59
  because you think it's going to outperform Bitcoin.
• 1:00:01
  That's the only reason, right? So but what happens when they
• 1:00:06
  start underperforming Bitcoin? What happens to their ability to
• 1:00:10
  raise more money to buy Bitcoin? Because that's the value
• 1:00:14
  proposition. The value proposition is that a
• 1:00:16
  lot of these treasury companies have access to the capital
• 1:00:20
  markets, and they're able to access cheap debt in order to
• 1:00:25
  buy more Bitcoin and increase the amount of Bitcoin per share.
• 1:00:30
  But what happens, to use the Bloomberg article's own words,
• 1:00:34
  when that flywheel starts to slow down?
• 1:00:37
  It's going to affect the smaller Bitcoin treasury companies 1st,
• 1:00:41
  and then it's going to affect the larger ones.
• 1:00:45
  Now, again, I think Sailor has positioned himself at such it it
• 1:00:50
  at such a powerful and like position that I don't think I
• 1:00:55
  think MicroStrategy is going to be the biggest bank in the world
• 1:00:58
  in the next decade. Like, I think it's, I think
• 1:01:01
  Sailor like reasonably has a shot of being one of the
• 1:01:03
  wealthiest people in the world in the next 10 to 20 years
• 1:01:07
  because again, he positioned himself so well with such a big
• 1:01:12
  head start. But what about #10 on that list?
• 1:01:16
  What about #15 on that list, right?
• 1:01:19
  Like, why would you buy #15 if you can buy #1 and you know,
• 1:01:25
  number one's already going to win.
• 1:01:26
  Well, you're going to buy 15 because you think that 15 is out
• 1:01:30
  is going to outperform #1 because it's market cap is that
• 1:01:33
  much smaller and it has that much more room to grow.
• 1:01:37
  But what if #15 isn't able to raise money anymore because it's
• 1:01:42
  stock isn't going up? And now all of a sudden, the
• 1:01:46
  amount, the, the actual value, the the market cap of that
• 1:01:51
  company of that share is actually lower than the amount
• 1:01:55
  of Bitcoin that they hold. So then why didn't you just buy
• 1:01:59
  Bitcoin instead? You would have outperformed that
• 1:02:01
  company and you could have still had self custody, right?
• 1:02:04
  Doesn't make sense, does it? Anyways, I'm done.
• 1:02:07
  That's my tangent. Opti, I want to get your take on
• 1:02:10
  this because we've had to become these like treasury company semi
• 1:02:15
  experts very quick. I know you're the macro expert
• 1:02:18
  in the house Opti very quick. I'm not a Bitcoin treasury, I'm
• 1:02:22
  not a Bitcoin treasury expert, though I still maybe maybe it's
• 1:02:26
  like what you said, maybe it's just like the ideological divide
• 1:02:31
  here that made me not fully understand what these treasury
• 1:02:35
  companies are. But but Nico seen me.
• 1:02:37
  I've been listening to, you know, sailors shareholder
• 1:02:39
  meetings, trying to understand what these new products are
• 1:02:42
  doing. And the one big take away, at
• 1:02:44
  least from sailors perspective, is a lot of these products are
• 1:02:48
  kind of tapped and created for certain capital specific
• 1:02:52
  markets. And so he's tapping into these
• 1:02:54
  markets that otherwise wouldn't be able to get into Bitcoin.
• 1:02:57
  But that's kind of a totally different conversation than just
• 1:03:00
  the idea of the Bitcoin treasury companies.
• 1:03:02
  And so like what Nico is saying, just kind of breaking it down in
• 1:03:07
  in simple terms is like by definition, what these treasury
• 1:03:12
  companies are doing is as investor, you know, capital
• 1:03:16
  allocators is they are taking on more risk to achieve a higher
• 1:03:20
  return. That's by definition, that's
• 1:03:22
  what investing is. And so that's why they get
• 1:03:25
  these, you know, maybe outsize returns here is because, and
• 1:03:29
  maybe Sailor could be argued that is, is a little different
• 1:03:32
  because I'm sure from his perspective, it's not so much a
• 1:03:35
  risk per SE. He's just like, look, I'm
• 1:03:36
  creating these products and I'm tapping into these markets so
• 1:03:39
  that very few products or Bitcoin products can actually
• 1:03:43
  get into. And he's done the due diligence
• 1:03:45
  for all of this. But by definition, as an
• 1:03:47
  investor, you do take risk. And a lot of these Bitcoin
• 1:03:50
  treasury companies, like Nico's been saying for weeks now, maybe
• 1:03:54
  not 1-2 or three, maybe not the top 3 here, which would be what
• 1:03:58
  Sailor Metaplanet or strategy metaplanet and maybe like
• 1:04:02
  Nakamoto or 21 capital, like those top four probably are the
• 1:04:06
  ones that will be able to withstand any storm here.
• 1:04:10
  But by definition, as you go farther down the list, they
• 1:04:13
  these companies are going to have to take more and more
• 1:04:15
  risks. And personally, as someone that
• 1:04:18
  doesn't have, you know, money wrapped up in, in the
• 1:04:21
  traditional capital markets of, well, you know, had no money
• 1:04:23
  when I started this, still have no money considering we're
• 1:04:26
  brokies. I, I don't, I don't think the
• 1:04:31
  risk is justified here. And yes, the gains and the
• 1:04:35
  returns are an incentive and, and, you know, you have to kind
• 1:04:39
  of fight your own personal greed here, but you never know.
• 1:04:42
  Some of these could, you know, blow up.
• 1:04:44
  And personally, I think it's just a lot safer.
• 1:04:46
  It's like what we were saying in the beginning of the show, like
• 1:04:48
  to me, this is the best money in the world.
• 1:04:51
  I want to hold on to the best money in the world for as long
• 1:04:53
  as humanly possible, personally hold on to this money.
• 1:04:55
  So I'm not going to give, you know, an investor this money
• 1:04:58
  when Bitcoin is being adopted and Bitcoin is in the process of
• 1:05:03
  being monetized. Maybe when, you know, we're 80
• 1:05:05
  years old, like they're saying in the chat, you know, when
• 1:05:07
  we're 80 years old and bitcoins, whatever, hundreds of millions
• 1:05:11
  of dollars per coin, then maybe that's when we'll and we don't
• 1:05:15
  get these crazy returns because there's been a lot of adopters
• 1:05:17
  of Bitcoin and it's like, you know.
• 1:05:19
  As ubiquitous as. The Internet is and everyone's
• 1:05:22
  using it, and we're no longer simply Bitcoin because no one
• 1:05:25
  really cares about Bitcoin like they used to.
• 1:05:27
  And it's like saying simply Internet.
• 1:05:29
  Maybe that's the time in our lifetime when we're like, yeah,
• 1:05:32
  you know, we're going to allocate our capital for returns
• 1:05:36
  in various different investments that we think are going to
• 1:05:39
  either improve the world or, you know, give me an outsize return.
• 1:05:42
  But in the moment, personally, the risk that I see in all this
• 1:05:45
  stuff and hey, look, shouts out to all my friends out there that
• 1:05:49
  that did understand this and got filthy rich off of this.
• 1:05:53
  I just know myself well enough. I'm like look, I don't
• 1:05:56
  understand what this I'm. Literally the like.
• 1:05:58
  If you don't understand it, don't invest money in it.
• 1:06:00
  I'm like, I didn't, I didn't understand what they were doing
• 1:06:03
  for a while and now I I. Literally feel like.
• 1:06:06
  A normie when it comes to the Bitcoin treasury companies in
• 1:06:09
  the sense is like I missed the boat and everyone's like dude,
• 1:06:12
  strategy is going to I don't even know what the numbers are
• 1:06:14
  $10,000 per share or something like that, you know like
• 1:06:17
  something crazy. And and I look at some of my
• 1:06:20
  friends when they say that the same way my normie friends look
• 1:06:23
  at me when I talk about Bitcoin. I'm like, Nah, dude, I missed
• 1:06:25
  the boat like I'm going to just sit in my Bitcoin yeah, you're
• 1:06:29
  going to get stupid rich but I just I don't know I don't know
• 1:06:32
  what's going on with these things I I'm not going to take
• 1:06:35
  that risk here like the last thing you want to be doing right
• 1:06:38
  now as Bitcoin becomes monetized is taking excess risk to your
• 1:06:43
  holdings. That's like, the worst thing you
• 1:06:45
  can be doing. Yeah, maybe if you want to, you
• 1:06:47
  know, shave off a little bit and you, you know, mess around in
• 1:06:50
  the casinos or take a little bit and be like, yeah, OK, hey, you
• 1:06:54
  know, this little bit of my stack isn't going to really
• 1:06:57
  affect my life either way. If I can get a good return on
• 1:07:01
  it, so be it. But I mean, we were talking this
• 1:07:04
  morning, Nico, and I'm not going to dox our boy here, but he was
• 1:07:07
  trolling about like, dude, should I sell my whole stack for
• 1:07:09
  some metaplanet right now? We're like, no dude, do not.
• 1:07:12
  Do that at all that that is the. Dumbest thing you can be doing
• 1:07:16
  right now and it all goes back to the same idea.
• 1:07:19
  Like if we are in this S curve adoption.
• 1:07:22
  If we are on, you know, the tip of a tsunami, A monumental wave
• 1:07:28
  coming into Bitcoin, the last thing you should be doing is
• 1:07:32
  adding more risk into your portfolio.
• 1:07:35
  Bitcoin, as as the average person looks at, is already
• 1:07:38
  risky enough. If you don't understand what
• 1:07:41
  these Bitcoin treasury companies are doing, if you can't read the
• 1:07:44
  prospectus and understand exactly what they're doing, you
• 1:07:47
  probably shouldn't be giving them your money.
• 1:07:49
  Yes, I have friends that, you know, do the like MSTYMSTU plays
• 1:07:54
  and like man, it's passive income, bro.
• 1:07:56
  I don't have to ever sell my I'm like, man, that sounds really
• 1:07:58
  nice. I just don't understand what the
• 1:08:00
  hell it's doing. So I'm not going to throw my
• 1:08:02
  coins at it. You know, I'm not going to throw
• 1:08:04
  my, my, what's it, 10 million stats, my generational wealth.
• 1:08:07
  At it, because I don't get what they're doing here.
• 1:08:09
  But for better or worse, we will see probably a Bitcoin treasury
• 1:08:14
  company, whether it's the big ones or not, blow up.
• 1:08:17
  I think it's a totally different conversation, but I think it's
• 1:08:20
  going to happen now. I don't think it's gonna be
• 1:08:22
  sailor. I think sailor is probably, you
• 1:08:24
  know, the smartest one doing it. Or do I think it's metaplan it
• 1:08:28
  like these are for different markets as as one of my favorite
• 1:08:32
  theories is here is, you know, the reason Satoshi Nakamoto
• 1:08:35
  picked the the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto is because he was
• 1:08:38
  saying like, look at the Japanese markets right now.
• 1:08:41
  America will become Japan if they don't get their shit
• 1:08:44
  together. And look what's going on in
• 1:08:46
  Japan right now. They're they're not in a good
• 1:08:48
  place. And so if you think we are on
• 1:08:51
  the precipice, uh oh, am I falling off?
• 1:08:55
  No, you're here. No, it said my.
• 1:08:57
  I said I lost my connection. If you think we are on the
• 1:09:00
  precipice of of something huge and monumental of a phase shift
• 1:09:05
  in money right now, then taking, you know, risk on that right now
• 1:09:10
  just the returns do not they the ROI on this just doesn't make
• 1:09:14
  sense to me. Like it the, you know, yeah,
• 1:09:16
  maybe you could double, triple, quadruple 10 times your stack if
• 1:09:19
  you knew sailors strategy was going to work.
• 1:09:22
  But there was also the chance back then that you could lose
• 1:09:24
  your whole stack. And right now is not the time to
• 1:09:28
  to be taking these risks. I think it's just like, hey,
• 1:09:31
  Bitcoin and chill. Bitcoin and chill.
• 1:09:34
  I absolutely love that. I think it's very fitting to
• 1:09:37
  enter the culture segment with that guys.
• 1:09:40
  We're going to be right back. Opti's got something loaded up
• 1:09:42
  for you guys and then of course, we're going to give it.
• 1:09:44
  We're going to be giving away some sats through Bitcoin well,
• 1:09:48
  so you guys are going to want to stay tuned.
• 1:09:50
  Smash that like button. If you guys are enjoying the
• 1:09:52
  show, we're going to be right back in just a bit.
• 1:09:56
  I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
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  Tech or at Hive? Digital.
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  Tech.com I want to give a shout out to our partner Bitcoin Ben
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  All right, everybody, we are back.
• 1:11:59
  If you guys are enjoying the show so far, make sure to smash
• 1:12:02
  that like button. We're currently at 291 likes.
• 1:12:07
  Help us break 350 likes By the end of the show, smash that like
• 1:12:11
  button opt. He's going to dive into the
• 1:12:13
  culture. And again, you guys are going to
• 1:12:15
  want to stay tuned to the end of the show because we're going to
• 1:12:17
  be giving away some Sats. All right, well, guys, First
• 1:12:21
  off, for the culture, I did lint my I did lint roll my hat, but
• 1:12:24
  apparently Nico's house is linty here still.
• 1:12:27
  So yeah, anyways, shout out to Ron.
• 1:12:32
  I am linty, dude. I'm I'm salty and linty right
• 1:12:35
  now. Thank you, Ron P Super Chat
• 1:12:37
  $10.00 for the Chipotle Mayo fund.
• 1:12:40
  OK, guys, first of all. I feel like a.
• 1:12:44
  Lot of my cultures have been a little doomy and I and I hate
• 1:12:47
  being the Fiat dumer guy here, but a lot of the charts and
• 1:12:50
  metrics that I'm seeing right now, they should be worrisome.
• 1:12:54
  All right, That's that's just going to be my.
• 1:12:56
  Context here like this. Stuff is the stuff I'm seeing on
• 1:12:59
  Twitter. I don't know who you guys follow
• 1:13:01
  on Twitter. Maybe I've curated my my my
• 1:13:05
  Twitter account because it like the data I'm getting and from
• 1:13:09
  the people that I'm seeing. I'm like some of this stuff is
• 1:13:12
  absolutely terrifying If you you are still holding dollars.
• 1:13:15
  OK, that's that's kind of like the PSA here now this first one
• 1:13:20
  is the craziest 1 I think like Nico, wait, do that again.
• 1:13:24
  So. That was crazy.
• 1:13:33
  OK. This first one is Kobayashi
• 1:13:36
  letter great follow you know you you could argue that they they
• 1:13:41
  they do have a certain bent here they they are a little more
• 1:13:44
  doomerish, but again, if you're watching the traditional news if
• 1:13:48
  you're if. You're watching the traditional
• 1:13:52
  Wait, did you lose me? Oh, no, sorry.
• 1:13:56
  Someone says we lost off to the no dude, I'm bullish.
• 1:13:58
  I am bullish as fuck when it comes to Bitcoin.
• 1:14:01
  But the data I'm seeing coming out from the the trad FI system
• 1:14:06
  is is where is where this is leading.
• 1:14:09
  Remember the Bellagi tweet that I that his thread that I covered
• 1:14:13
  the other day. It was kind of connecting where
• 1:14:16
  we are right now to the very end of the Soviet Union.
• 1:14:20
  And essentially the short of it is as things progressed and
• 1:14:25
  before the wall came down, all of the economic data was being
• 1:14:29
  faked and they were trying to put out really good numbers.
• 1:14:32
  And we're seeing this narrative play out right now as a
• 1:14:34
  Bitcoiner, we all know, like most of the economic data that
• 1:14:37
  we're seeing is most likely, you know, massage, to put it nicely.
• 1:14:43
  And when it comes to the independent journalists, if you
• 1:14:48
  want to call them that, you know, the independent analysts
• 1:14:50
  out there, the numbers aren't painting a good scene.
• 1:14:53
  OK. And I've covered a bunch of
• 1:14:54
  different examples, but this one really kind of struck me.
• 1:14:57
  So Kobayashi letter on Twitter and he goes, this is insane.
• 1:15:01
  The NASDAQ market cap relative to the USM 2 money supply has
• 1:15:05
  hit a record 176%. This means the market value of
• 1:15:10
  the NASDAQ is nearly twice as large as the total stock of
• 1:15:13
  liquid money in the economy. The ratio has now exceeded
• 1:15:17
  the2000.com bubble peaked by roughly 45 percentage points.
• 1:15:23
  Never in the history of financial markets has the rise
• 1:15:26
  in stock prices exceeded the growth of the money supply by
• 1:15:30
  this much. At the same time, the NASDAQ
• 1:15:33
  market cap relative to USGDP has risen to a record 129%, almost
• 1:15:39
  doublethe.com peak. How much further can it go and
• 1:15:43
  remember the, the, the market cap of of NASDAQ versus the
• 1:15:48
  USGDP, like we, we probably haven't seen this scenario ever.
• 1:15:54
  We probably seen it maybe once or twice in the history of the
• 1:15:58
  US. And this is where you kind of
• 1:16:00
  start to think in a big picture, this isn't just the US, yes, we
• 1:16:03
  are US centric because we live in the United States.
• 1:16:06
  So a lot of our data comes from the US.
• 1:16:08
  And I'm sure if you look around in whatever country you're in,
• 1:16:11
  I'm sure it's worse than this. The the US economy is still the
• 1:16:16
  Chinese turd in the race, OK. Like it it all is kind of
• 1:16:19
  downstream from us. And look, we are in a scenario
• 1:16:24
  right now that might be worsethanthe.com bubble.
• 1:16:28
  Now, I know a lot of people are probably saying, oh, bitcoins
• 1:16:30
  thereal.com bubble. And we would look at it the
• 1:16:33
  opposite, like no Fiat currency is the real bubble and Bitcoins
• 1:16:38
  depend on that. And so as we're seeing this push
• 1:16:40
  from the Trump administration for stablecoins, it's hard to
• 1:16:44
  see how Bitcoin doesn't RIP through this process.
• 1:16:48
  I don't know if you guys have watched the gold price, but gold
• 1:16:51
  is also hitting all time highs, guys.
• 1:16:53
  And you know, sorry, you know, what this usually means from a
• 1:16:56
  hard money aspect is when people are fleeing Treasuries and cash
• 1:17:01
  and they're diving into gold, a hedge against, you know, Fiat
• 1:17:05
  collapse, a hedge and against inflation, the basement,
• 1:17:08
  etcetera. This is usually signs that there
• 1:17:11
  is not only fear in the market, fear in the investor, but
• 1:17:15
  probably a problem, a fundamental problem, a plumbing
• 1:17:19
  problem. And we're seeing gold has never
• 1:17:22
  been this high ever, literally ever.
• 1:17:25
  So what does that usually mean? As we always say here in in
• 1:17:28
  Bitcoin, it's not just that Bitcoin is going up in price is
• 1:17:32
  that your dollar is losing its value.
• 1:17:34
  Now we're seeing this exact thing play out in gold, and
• 1:17:38
  usually gold runs before Bitcoin.
• 1:17:40
  So if there's someone out there, rather, if there's a collective
• 1:17:43
  consciousness out there of people seeing this data and
• 1:17:47
  being like, wait, there is a problem going on, I should
• 1:17:50
  probably sell my stocks, I should probably not buy
• 1:17:53
  Treasuries, and I should just go into the Armageddon and
• 1:17:58
  Armageddon investment, which is buying gold.
• 1:18:01
  I'm not saying we're going into a Mad Max scenario this year,
• 1:18:04
  tomorrow, 5-10 years from now. All I'm saying is exactly what
• 1:18:08
  Kobayashi letter said here at the end.
• 1:18:10
  How much further can it go now? I think they can kick the can
• 1:18:15
  down the road farther than and longer than any of us could even
• 1:18:18
  imagine. It's not a good thing for people
• 1:18:22
  on mainstream. It's not a good thing for your
• 1:18:23
  friends and family if they're just holding stocks thinking
• 1:18:26
  like, oh, the S&P 500's going to outperform inflation, I'll be
• 1:18:29
  good. Or, you know, I, I'm going to
• 1:18:31
  put all of my money in the 401 KS because my employer's going
• 1:18:34
  to match it. It's like, bro, none of this
• 1:18:36
  would matter. It or none of this is going to
• 1:18:39
  matter if the data comes out proving exactly where we are,
• 1:18:43
  which if you've been following, I'm pretty sure we've been in a
• 1:18:46
  recession for officially, unofficially in a recession for
• 1:18:50
  probably a year or two now. It's seeming like if they don't
• 1:18:56
  get this under control, hence why we think rate cuts are
• 1:18:59
  probably coming. And if they, if the rate cuts
• 1:19:03
  don't do anything, it could expose this whole sham that we
• 1:19:06
  aren't just in a recession, we are probably in a depression
• 1:19:10
  right now. And if you talk to anyone out
• 1:19:12
  there, just like a normie, they're probably feeling more of
• 1:19:17
  a depression type scenario than they are a recession.
• 1:19:19
  People are working multiple jobs.
• 1:19:21
  They can't buy groceries. Rent's super expensive for most
• 1:19:23
  people, hard to pay their bills. People are struggling right now.
• 1:19:27
  And this is all the stuff that continues to kind of paint the
• 1:19:32
  picture. This is why I think I've gotten
• 1:19:34
  into the macro kind of landscape here is because, look, Bitcoin
• 1:19:38
  is entering those market. It's like Bitcoin is entering
• 1:19:41
  the mainstream here. And if there is something that
• 1:19:44
  you can learn from macro markets or macro analysts is that a lot
• 1:19:49
  of the indicators, the independent analysts out there
• 1:19:52
  are kind of showing that the geopolitical macroeconomic
• 1:19:55
  landscape is not in a good position.
• 1:19:58
  And and the only way they can keep doing this is what Lynn
• 1:20:02
  Alden keeps saying. They just they have to continue
• 1:20:05
  to print the big print, as Larry Leopard said, they can't stop
• 1:20:08
  this train as Lynn Alden's been kind of talking about.
• 1:20:12
  And so that's like the big doomer stuff on the flip.
• 1:20:15
  Side here there is a flip side. Is Bitcoin accumulation is
• 1:20:21
  rising as holders stack above 100K.
• 1:20:24
  So we are starting to see, you know, as people could like to
• 1:20:27
  call the mother of all supply shocks building up the Bitcoin
• 1:20:30
  treasury companies, the, you know, the whales out there, you
• 1:20:35
  guys out there, we are starting to see that people are
• 1:20:38
  accumulating Bitcoin now are those holders coming from gold
• 1:20:41
  or those holders coming from dropping treasuries?
• 1:20:44
  Are those holders from more traditional assets?
• 1:20:47
  Yes, but also I don't think in size yet so this is like the
• 1:20:53
  Paul Revere moment here that we should all be on it's we need to
• 1:20:56
  continue to get as many people as we can, however, we can not
• 1:21:02
  you know just like shilling them like incredible price gains
• 1:21:06
  here. You just got to be like hey man,
• 1:21:08
  you should probably just buy a little bit.
• 1:21:10
  You know, just just dip your toes in this Bitcoin thing,
• 1:21:13
  however however it makes sense to your friends and family, but
• 1:21:16
  we as bitcoiners, we as you know simply Bitcoin here and Ruston
• 1:21:20
  Dante Sophie Ocean's like we are we are I I think symbolically
• 1:21:26
  like the Paul Revere's out here on YouTube just being like guys,
• 1:21:30
  you need to be holding Bitcoin. You have to this isn't this
• 1:21:33
  isn't an option anymore. This is a necessity, like you
• 1:21:38
  need to hold Bitcoin because who knows how long this can go, Who
• 1:21:42
  knows what's going to happen. But what we do know is they're
• 1:21:44
  going to debase the currency, they're going to debase your
• 1:21:47
  holdings, and you need to hold something that they cannot
• 1:21:49
  destroy, which is, of course, Bitcoin.
• 1:21:52
  And I just want more people to hold.
• 1:21:54
  It I I like. Man, I'm an acceleration list in
• 1:21:56
  the opposite view, Nico, I don't want everything to burn.
• 1:21:59
  I want everyone to hold Bitcoin and we just get past the chasm
• 1:22:03
  here. I love that.
• 1:22:06
  I love that. No, I mean, yeah, dude, it
• 1:22:10
  things are on an unsustainable trajectory.
• 1:22:14
  I think this is been the case since 1971, really started since
• 1:22:20
  the executive Order 61-O2. And you know, it's been a, it's
• 1:22:24
  been decades and decades and decades of basically stealing
• 1:22:30
  from the future to enrich the present.
• 1:22:33
  And I think our generation is finally when, when those
• 1:22:39
  decisions finally caught up with themselves.
• 1:22:41
  I think 2008, 2009, when you know, me and Opti were coming of
• 1:22:48
  age, essentially we, the millennial generation's the
• 1:22:53
  first generation where we, we are, we are feeling the effects
• 1:22:58
  of the 2008, 2009 financial crisis, the zoomer generation
• 1:23:04
  even worse, the alpha generation even worse.
• 1:23:07
  You're not going to own anything, right?
• 1:23:10
  The medium age for a home buyer in the United States is 40 years
• 1:23:16
  old, the highest it's ever been since the data was starting to
• 1:23:22
  get a, since the data was starting to get accumulated.
• 1:23:24
  I mean, it was 2002 and the medium age for a home buyer was
• 1:23:30
  like 30 years old. It's gone up 10 years, right?
• 1:23:36
  And then not only that, you talk about America in the 1950s and
• 1:23:41
  1960s and you talked about a middle class family being able
• 1:23:48
  to support itself off of 1 income and off of a regular job
• 1:23:54
  and they were able to afford a home, meaning they're able to
• 1:23:59
  live with dignity, right? That has been stripped away.
• 1:24:03
  The American dream has been eviscerated by the central
• 1:24:08
  banking system by Fiat. And Bitcoin restores that hope.
• 1:24:13
  And not only does it restore that hope and exports that hope
• 1:24:17
  globally, now everybody could live the American dream if they
• 1:24:22
  start saving and earning in Bitcoin, right?
• 1:24:26
  So this is what it's all about. We all see the numbers.
• 1:24:29
  I think with the propagation and popularity of stable coins, I
• 1:24:37
  think the dollar is going to continue for the foreseeable
• 1:24:41
  future. So this this dream that
• 1:24:44
  Bitcoiners have that Bitcoin is going to replace the dollar.
• 1:24:48
  Yeah, sure. Maybe 30-40 years from now.
• 1:24:50
  I don't think it's going to. Happen anytime they're replacing
• 1:24:53
  the dollar, Nico. It's the same thing.
• 1:24:56
  It's the same thing. It's just digital.
• 1:24:57
  It's just digital dollars. It's the same thing essentially.
• 1:25:01
  I, I, I, I'm honestly looking forward to a world where you're
• 1:25:06
  able to use dollars as seamlessly as stablecoins.
• 1:25:10
  Like part of the reason I think stablecoins are so effing
• 1:25:12
  popular is because the banking says it.
• 1:25:15
  Like, look, I'll be honest with you guys.
• 1:25:17
  Like I I live in the US, my bank treats me extremely well.
• 1:25:22
  Like I have very good experiences with my.
• 1:25:24
  Bank fake bitcoiner. But that's only but that's only
• 1:25:27
  because, right, I've been with my bank for many years.
• 1:25:31
  I have a small business. I've, you know, like again, I'm
• 1:25:34
  a great customer, so they have every incentive to treat me
• 1:25:37
  right. But like, you know, the reality
• 1:25:42
  is that most people, you know, like, if you're not going to
• 1:25:47
  have that same banking experience, like in most some,
• 1:25:50
  even if if you live in a specific country, you can't even
• 1:25:54
  open a bank account. Not only that, not only can you
• 1:25:57
  not open a bank account, the bank, the bank itself might rug
• 1:26:02
  you right? Like that's crazy.
• 1:26:04
  Like, why would you want to do that?
• 1:26:06
  So like, this is what stable coins are for.
• 1:26:10
  Like This is why you're, This is why stable coins are so popular
• 1:26:13
  in the global S is because not everyone has the ability to open
• 1:26:18
  a bank account or has the means to open a bank account or more
• 1:26:21
  importantly, trust in the local banking system itself.
• 1:26:26
  They've lost faith in it. So they, they, they look at,
• 1:26:29
  they look at my personal favorite Tether and they're
• 1:26:31
  like, oh, this is fantastic. I can have access to dollars.
• 1:26:34
  I can use dollars globally. Now this is incredible.
• 1:26:38
  But it's a Trojan horse. It's a Trojan horse for Bitcoin
• 1:26:41
  because it gives them exposure to a digital wallet.
• 1:26:45
  And then eventually, if enough people in that country start
• 1:26:48
  adopting the stable coin, a stable coin doesn't fix
• 1:26:52
  inflation. It does not fix inflation.
• 1:26:54
  I get it. If you're going from a Bolivar
• 1:26:58
  with like double digit inflation and you're transitioning to the
• 1:27:02
  dollar, the dollar is going to be a a significantly better
• 1:27:06
  experience for you. But eventually, if you compare
• 1:27:11
  and contrast dollars and Bitcoin, Bitcoin is going to be
• 1:27:15
  a significantly better experience for you.
• 1:27:17
  But again, it doesn't. Bitcoin doesn't have that, that
• 1:27:20
  marketing aspect of it doesn't have that educational component.
• 1:27:24
  The dollar's been around for a long time.
• 1:27:26
  It has very strong branding, the US economy, the US militarily,
• 1:27:31
  the US in general. It seemed like the shining city
• 1:27:34
  on the hill. That's what it seemed, it seemed
• 1:27:36
  like for, you know, across the world.
• 1:27:39
  So of course people want access to dollars, right?
• 1:27:43
  And before stable coins, you couldn't get access to dollars,
• 1:27:47
  maybe physical dollars, but you couldn't get access to digital
• 1:27:51
  dollars. You need a bank account for
• 1:27:53
  that. So, yeah, man, I think, you
• 1:27:57
  know, to, to, to go back to what you're saying Opti, to weave all
• 1:28:01
  this back in like, like I, I'm, I don't have faith in the long
• 1:28:07
  term viability of this system to borrow Lynn Alden's quote,
• 1:28:11
  right. Nothing stops this train.
• 1:28:13
  Larry Laparde just wrote a, a book called The Big Print.
• 1:28:16
  What do you think is going to happen to your savings and
• 1:28:19
  earnings in dollar terms, in purchasing power terms, when
• 1:28:24
  that inevitable big print happens?
• 1:28:27
  It's going to lose purchasing power.
• 1:28:29
  It's going to be debased and you know the things that are going
• 1:28:32
  to benefit when they inevitably start printing money because
• 1:28:36
  they have to hard assets and the best hard asset of them all is
• 1:28:42
  Bitcoin, right? So anyways, I hope that ties it
• 1:28:44
  in. We've had an incredible show
• 1:28:46
  today, 800 live viewers on YouTube alone.
• 1:28:50
  Rumble coming in strong, X always coming in strong as well.
• 1:28:54
  I think we are we're on the verge of breaking 3000 live
• 1:28:56
  viewers on X. If you guys enjoyed today's
• 1:28:58
  content, make sure to like that smash that like button consider
• 1:29:03
  subscribing if you feel like we provided you value and before we
• 1:29:06
  go, as I promised, we are going to be giving away some sats.
• 1:29:12
  So we're going to be playing live on air.
• 1:29:14
  We're going to be doing a live demonstration.
• 1:29:16
  If I could log in here of the Bitcoin wishing well contest.
• 1:29:22
  So what is the Bitcoin Wishing Well contest?
• 1:29:26
  Well, it's a contest that is that you can play at
• 1:29:30
  bitcoinwell.com. The best place to build your
• 1:29:33
  automatic subject back. The way that you get access to
• 1:29:36
  it is up and you make an account.
• 1:29:38
  You could do that by scanning the QR code on your screen.
• 1:29:41
  By the way, if you use the QR code or you go to
• 1:29:46
  bitcoinwell.com/simply, you get 3 tosses into the Wishing Well.
• 1:29:50
  So 3 tosses you have an opportunity to win up to
• 1:29:53
  1,000,000 sats every single toss and you can scan the QR code or
• 1:29:58
  you can check the link in the video description to start
• 1:30:01
  playing today. We're gonna be doing a live
• 1:30:03
  example for you guys right now get your lightning wallets ready
• 1:30:06
  you the the prize today might be a million sets.
• 1:30:10
  Let's see let's see what the. Grand prize is.
• 1:30:12
  Today, let's see what it is. Let's see what it is.
• 1:30:15
  Could you imagine if that would be crazy?
• 1:30:18
  Today's prize is 347 SAT's. Congratulations to the first
• 1:30:23
  person who scanned the QR code. Again, go to
• 1:30:26
  bitcoinwell.com/simple to get today and you get 3 tosses into
• 1:30:31
  the wishing well. Guys, thank you so much for
• 1:30:33
  tuning in. We love you all.
• 1:30:34
  We'll see you tomorrow for another episode of Simply
• 1:30:37
  Bitcoin Live. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:30:40
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:30:43
  mission to enable financial independence.