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NCAAF + MLB Best Bets Saturday 9/27/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this, Man, the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four next have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season, Man, with bookends slump that
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached into pink. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man, I don't know
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: what is going on with the bruins archhape? Is that
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: what it is? I don't even know it's it's March ninth,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I think who even knows? Man, I don't know what
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: day it is anymore. I don't even know what day
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: it is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: day that I could possibly have, Back with you as
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I always am until I die, at least oh and two.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the slumpers, the
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you yet again. This is gonna
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: be the Saturdays I put Sunday. I think I put
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Sunday in the I'm such an idiot man, Saturday. Uh
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: September seventeenth. Let me fix that right now, Actually, let
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: me do it right now. I could edit the video.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I'm on YouTube here, dude. I'm so out of it,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: but you know I got no sleep obviously. Thanks for
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: everybody who showed up last night for the college Football Show.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: It was a It was something, man, it was a
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: It was a long, over two hour video. If you
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: want to go see my analysis still a little bit
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: of time, you can go do that. I just fixed
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: there you go. I just fixed the title here, at
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: least on YouTube. I didn't fix it on Twitter, but
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I think I could do that. Can I do that too?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Let me see? Let me edit it? Uh yeah, I can.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Here you go now everybody thinks I'm not an idiot.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Hell yeah, all right, yeah, I can edit it both ways.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: There it is, thank you streamyard. All right. Yesterday we
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: had another winning day. We went three and two yesterday,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: two and zero in college football. College football making me
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: look really good right now as we have Virginia with
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the outright win. I don't think they ever trailed in
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the game. They had a fourteen point lead. I think
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: out of the gate it was tied, they retook the lead,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: it was I think they just bounced back and forth
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: with like a seven point lead after that, and then
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: it did go into overtime, and there was the controversial
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: call at the end with in overtime, Florida State would
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: have tied the game with what looked like a touchdown
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: was ruled a touchdown on the field. But I think
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: they got it right. They overturned it. The receiver was
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: bobbling the ball through like the entirety of the end
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: zone and he never had control until he was actually
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: out of the back of the end zone. So I
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: think the overturn was correct, and you could hear the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: guys analyzing it. People Florida State fans are gonna complain. Oh,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Virginia is getting all the calls. Really, like you think
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Florida State versus Virginia, I think Virginia is gonna be
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the team that gets that gets the benefit of the calls.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I doubt it, but man, the crowd was insane at
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Virginia last night. It was one of the craziest crowds
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I've ever seen. Like I'm surprised. You never really think
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: of Virginia having a ridiculous crowd, but they were there
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: for that game. I think they disrupted Florida State's offense.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: If you watch the end of that game, that caused
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: like a really crucial false start after the overturn happened
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to set Florida State back further, and then they had
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: to convert along fourth down, which they didn't do, and
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the crowd had rushed the field before the game was
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: even over. I hope everybody was okay, but man, that
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: was insane. It was one of the biggest field stormings
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: that I've ever seen. It was like just a sea
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: of people on the field. No spot on the field,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: like you couldn't see any green. It was just covered
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: with people. I was like, this is the most insane
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: thing I've ever seen. Like, I don't even think I'm exaggerating.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: You can go find like the videos of it. Whatever.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: It was crazy, and we got to be on the
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: winning side of it. Outright win for Virginia. And I
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: don't like Castellanos because what he did to BC, so
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I love seeing Florida State lose. So that was a win.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: And then Oregon State almost got us a win in
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: the late night thirteen and a half point underdog. They
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: were out to like a fourteen nothing lead right away,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: but then it was fourteen to ten at halftime. But
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: still it's looking like a low scoring game. They've been
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: winning the whole game. You know, it was looking pretty good.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, they had a wire to wire cover as well,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: so two wired to wire covers. They both actually went
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: into overtime. Oregon State went to overtime, but Oregon State
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Houston's defense stepped up man and Oregon State got stuffed.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: If you watch my video last night, it happened while
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I was watching it on TV. While I was doing
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the video last night, Oregon State went for an on
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: fourth and one in overtime, which it makes sense, you're
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: at home, you're the underdog, go for it, you know,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: don't settle for the field goal. Even though Houston wound
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: up settling for the field goal, that was because they
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: didn't need to try for a touchdown. Oregon State got
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: stuffed on the fourth and one, just absolutely bad, and
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: then Houston all they had to do was get a
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: field goal after that. So Oregon State did not hit
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: on the money line, but they certainly covered. So another
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: win for me on that one. And then baseball went
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: one on one yesterday a little bit annoying because we
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: got the under in the Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers game hit,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: so we got the win on that, and then we
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: did not get the win on the Tampa Bay and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Toronto first five under. The full game went under, but
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: all the runs in the game were scored in the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: first five innings, so the first five didn't go under.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: I hate when that happens. So that one up being
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: a loser. And then Minnesota lost in the w NBA.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: It's crazy, dude, that they might actually get eliminated. I
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: think they're on the verge of elimination now. We might
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: potentially tomorrow we might just go right back to the
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: well and play Minnesota again. I know you're getting an
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: underdog price on them, and I gotta really look into
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: why that's the case. But that's crazy, man, Jordan, what's
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: up man, Thanks for hanging out. Good morning, Yeah, Jeffrey,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: what's up. Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, last night was
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: college football? Man. This this show here is gonna be
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: all baseball, so it's gonna be pretty boring, to be honest.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: You tried to go what underneath under on the Nationals game.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I'm almost never gonna recommend an under Internationals game with
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: that bullpen. If I do go with an under, it'll
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: be a first five inning only in their games. You
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: played baseball, yes, say wait? Why did the wait? You
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: couldn't bet college football and DraftKings? That's weird. That doesn't
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: make any sense. I mean, they make a lot of
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: money through football bettings, so I don't know. That doesn't
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: make any sense. Mark Lawrence has Arizona and UCF today.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: I like Mark Lawrence. I think he's solid. I agree
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: with him on Arizona and I really disagree with him
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: on UCF. I also agree with him on the Giants,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: which that'll come tonight. You gotta wait, you gotta wait
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: for tonight and uh yeah, Virginia Tech. Oh, he likes
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis too. I'm I don't know about the Indie game.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: I've I have some issues trying to figure that game out.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: To be honest, indian the Rams. It's an addressing game
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: of Virginia Tech over. Yeah, Virginia Tech has crazy crowds yet,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: but this was University of Virginia though, like Virginia Tech
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is known as more of a football school than Virginia's.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: But Virginia's pretty good this year, Dude, I told you
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: going into that game last night. Virginia their offense has
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: been good this year. They got Morris I think as
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: their quarterback who was at North Texas last year. He
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: could throw the ball. Man, he's good. I think he's
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: a dual threat to like. They got a pretty solid
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: offense there, Nate, what's up man? Thanks for hanging out.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: If you want my college football analysis, you gotta go
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: watch the College Football Show. Though I'm not going to
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: reanalyze here, but I will give you my plays for
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: today in college football. Kansas State minus five and a half,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: So going against Mark Lawrence on that one, which I
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: don't love doing, but I think I'm right on that game.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Iowa plus eight and a half. I know how ugly
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: these are, dude, You know me, I'm very contrarian. Oklahoma
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: State plus twenty one, hopefully you can get the best
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: number on these, by the way, and Florida Atlantic plus fourteen.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Those are my four plays. I had some additional like
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: leans that I gave out on the show. You can
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: go watch the show from last night if you want
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: all the analysis. If you follow me on Instagram. I
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: put out the videos with all the analysis on the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: games that I actually have. I had additional like leans
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: to Boston College, San Jose State, Kentucky. I kind of like,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: I think there might have been one other one in there,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: but those are the ones that like were close to
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: making my car and I didn't quite want to do it,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: and I was kind of considering too Laane as well.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So just you know a little bit of info into
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: my mindset there. You couldn't find the games that I
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: played yesterday. Really, that's pretty surprising me. There are only
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: three games for college football last night, and they were
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: all FBS games. I mean, that's yeah, that seems weird.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I mean all of them involved big conference teams too,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: so that definitely surprises me. I don't know what's going
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: on you might be looking in the wrong place on DraftKings.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure because that doesn't make any sense other
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: than well, actually, Jordan, what stay do you win? Because
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of states, like I'm in Massachusetts, and Massachusetts
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: you can't bet any Massachusetts colleges, which is bs obviously.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Oh I love how my cameras is not focusing at
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: all because I look so handsome. You guys want to
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: see me. I just rolled out of bet. I'm wearing
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: the same shirt I wore last night. I want to
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: get to the baseball here. I don't want this video
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: to go that long, but yeah, I mean some states
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: will not allow you to bet colleges that are within
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: your state, which does piss me off. So I have
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: to find other means if I want to bet on
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a game involving a Massachusetts college, but at least Massachusetts
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't have good sports seams. But it's still like Boston College.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, you want to potentially bet on some of
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: their games. I hadn't. I did bet on Boston College
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: at least once last year, because I remember giving that
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: bet out when I was it was against I think
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: it was against Louisville. Actually I was gonna say Florida State.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think it was Florida State. I think it
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: was Louisville and BC blew that game. By the way,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: they covered should have won the game. But I gave
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: that out when I was down at tops house in Florida.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I remember that money never sleeps, that's true. Yeah, Oh,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: you're looking in the search. I don't know, like usually
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: you're in Virginia. Well, yeah, if you're in Virginia that
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: probably they probably wouldn't allow you to bet on the
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Virginia game then, but you probably could have bet on
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: the Oregon State one that I gave out, and I
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: also liked Arizona State. But you would have pushed if
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: you laid the three on that one. But things are
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: worse in life than pushing a bet at Yeah, so
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: let's get into baseball here. Baseball, it's getting really interesting. Man.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: My Boston Red Sox. I'm wearing their hat, although I'm
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: still wearing it back where it's because they're still was
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: still I'm still, you know, waving the white flag here
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: because I don't think they're gonna go that far. There
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: will be no white flag but mine, dum, but there
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: will be this time The Red Sox did actually clinch
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: a playoff spot with a win yesterday, so that happened.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: The Yankees and Toronto both won as well, so they're
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: still tied atop the Ale East, with the Blue Jays
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: holding the tiebreaker. Cleveland and Detroit both lost because Detroit
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: lost to the Red Sox on a walk off by
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the way by Rafaela had the walk off hit deep
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: in the center field, which I think was a triple
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: but I thought he just kind of collapsed on first
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: base because he didn't need to advance any further. I mean,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: it was a walk off win. The runner just needed
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: to score from first base, so I don't know whatever
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: I mean. He collapsed with joy he wasn't injured, but yeah,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: so they beat Detroit. Cleveland also lost to Texas yesterday,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I think, so they are still tied with Detroit and
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is holding the tiebreaker in that division. Houston is
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: one game behind Detroit and Cleveland, so they're still in
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: the wildcard hunt as well. It's wild man and the
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: only team that I think got actually got eliminated yesterday
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: was the Arizona Diamondbacks because they lost to who the
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: hell did they lose to? San Diego. I think it
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: was San Diego. So San Diego is still potentially trying
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: to jockey for position I guess a little bit. Arizona
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is out. So now we have Cincinnati and the Mets
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: are still tied because they also both lost yesterday. It's
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: like they both they don't want to win, man, it's insane.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So the last wildcard spot is still up for grabs
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: in the NL and it is between the Mets and
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the Reds at this point. So it comes down to
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the last two days of baseball. And that's what we're
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: going to talk about here. It's about motivation at this point, man.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: But the problem is these teams that you know, have
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the motivation to try to make the playoffs, you're not
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: getting a good price on them. So that's kind of
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: the problem Detroit for the series. If they play Cleveland,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you mean, like if they yeah, if they wind up
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: playing Cleveland in the playoffs, that is a possibility that
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: could happen. Yeah. Interesting, Yeah, I mean I think Detroit
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: is still the better team, but Detroit, like they would
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: need to have home field. Man Like Detroit, they're much
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: much better at home, so they really need to win
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: their divisions. They can get home field and whatever. That
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: first series is Baltimore at Yankees. Here is the first
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: game up. It's one of the after noon games. There
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: are some after noon games today. Yankees won yesterday. I'm
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: not happy about it. They've won six games in a row.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: They're still battling Toronto for the Al East. Here, Yankees
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: have an easy matchup pretty much against the Orioles. Although
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the Orioles, you gotta figure, they got a chance to
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: spoil the season a little bit for the Yankees as
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: far as not letting them win the division. So I
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: think Baltimore is still motivated in this series. The problem is,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: are they actually good enough to win these games today.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not really sure that they are. Yankees actually have
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, even though their bullpen is not very good.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's is worse. Yankees did use a little bit more
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: of theirs yesterday, so I wouldn't really want to deal
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: with either bullpen in this game. Preferably Yankees have the
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: way better offense. Obviously. Sugano is pitching four Baltimore in
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: this game. He's been mediocre basically in his first season
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: in the majors. He spent a lot of his career
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: in Japan, He's got a four point five to four
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: ERA and one point three to four whip, not great.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: He's a little bit better on the road four point
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: four to eight ERA. This month, his command has been outright,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: with an eight to one strike a walk ratios ERA
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: at six is not very good. He's failed to actually
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: even make it past three and a third innings and
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: three of his last four out and he's including his
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: last time out against the Yankees, where he only went
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: three innings and allowed four earned runs, so that's not
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a good sign. His numbers against the Yankees are not
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: very good and fifty one at bats fourteen to five
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratios all right, But since the Yankees
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: have seen him multiple times now, they've figured him out
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: and they've hit him pretty well three thirty three batting
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: average nine zero three ops, so he does not do
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: very well against them. So you have to give the
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: edge to Cam Schlittler, who is eleven years younger than Sugano.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: He is pitching for the Yankees rookie season. For him,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty good three point twenty seven eras whip
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: is too high at one point three, so he is
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: walking a few too many, and he's actually not quite
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: as good at home as he is on the road.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Three point seven to eight ERA at home this month,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: five point zero nine ERA not that great really, and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: twenty one to ten strike out walk ratio against the
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: walks That are really kind of concerning here. He did
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: pitch well against Baltimore last time out of that same series,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: held him to one on run in five and a
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: third innings, so I do think he has the upper
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: hand in this pitching matchup, both literally and figuratively against Baltimore.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: I think it was all just that one start. They
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: have nineteen at bad against some Basalo or Basaio did
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: hit a home run off him, but he has six
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: to ones, a six to one starting got walk ratio
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: against him, a one fifty eight average allowed, and five
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: to sixty eight ops allowed. So Schlittler is the better
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: of these two. Where's this game at here? Yankees are
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: down for minus two twenty six to minus two fifteen
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: on the money line, seventy eight percent of tickets, eighty
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on them. I mean again,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are one of the teams that needs to win.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: They don't need to win, but they they do need
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: to win if they want to win the division. But
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you're not getting any real value on the Yankees here
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: in my opinion. I mean, you're paying a lot for
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: the Yankees here. So I think the way that I
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: would play this, if I wanted to do something with it,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I would probably go Yankees over their team total. Again,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: it's it's the it's the old standby man, which they've
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: been able to do that two of the last three
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: games at least. So they scored eight runs yesterday, so
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: you're probably gonna be asking him to score about six
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: or something. I would guess in this game somewhere in
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: that ballpark, which like a lot, but they can hit.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: It's a hitter friendly park. They're not facing very good pitching.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: So that is probably what I would do if I
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: was gonna play that game. Saint Louis at the Cubs,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Neither of these teams is really doing like is really
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: playing for a lot here. The Cubs did win yesterday
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: twelve to one, so Saint Louis might have a little
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: bit of motivation just for that reason. This is Saint
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Louis's last series of the season, so they might have
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit extra motivation for that reason, Cubs already
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: basically looking forward to the playoffs. The Cubs are I believe,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: pretty much locked into the four seed. I don't even know.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I think they might mathematically be locked into the four
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: seed now in the NL, so I don't really think
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: they can advance or lose their position at all, so
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter for them. So you could maybe
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: even argue that Saint Louis is gonna start having more
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: motivation here because this is their last series of the season,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: They're not going anywhere after this, and they get to
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: play the Cubs. Both teams have pretty solid bullpends. Saint
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Louis is better. Saint Louis only used three relief just
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: to say, the Cubs only US four, so the bullpens
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: decently intact here. Chicago has the better offense, although if
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: they're not focused, I don't know how much offense they'll
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: get you here. Although in Wrigley Field the total looks
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: like it's high in this game, it's nine and a half,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: which that means that the wind is blowing out at Wrigly,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: so uh. The total like fluctuates dramatically in games at
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Wriglely based on what the weather is doing The Lake
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Effect wind is pretty insane at Wrigley, so that means
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the wind is blowing out of the totals that high.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind there as well. Michael
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: McGreevy pitching for Saint Louis. He's had an okay season.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: I think this is his first season in the majors.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Actually it's his first full issue well not even a
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: full season, but the first season where he's pitched, I
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: guess enough to qualify as a rookie. He did pitch
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: last year a little bit. He's been okay this year,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: four point three to five ERA, UH, one point two
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: to three WHIP. He's way better on the road three
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: point two to nine roady IRA, so he does have
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the home road split working in his favor in this game.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been that good this month though, four point
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: nine to one ERA, fifteen to seven strike out walk ratio,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: too many walks three each in his last couple of games.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: That's not great Against the Cubs. They've hit him for
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: contact but not really for power and forty seven at bats.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: They have a two ninety eight average against him, which
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: is high, but a six eighty eight OPS not that
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: high because they haven't really done really much damage for
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: power against him. The only extra base hit is actually
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: a home run from Suzuki, so thirteen of the fourteen
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: hits a singles, which is crazy. A four to two
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio not exactly that good either, but
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: he's not really a strikeout pitcher. He is going up
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: against James and tie on decent season for the Cubs,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: actually better than decent three point seven eighty RA one
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: point zero seven WHIP. He's better at home, so both
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: pitchers working in the right side of their home road
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: splits here three point two to three home ERA for him.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: He got injured and then he came back like almost
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: two months later, and he's been good since then. He's
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer earned runs in every outing since then,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: all five, and he's allowed one or few or in
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: four of the five. So he is on right now.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: This month is walk number to go up a little
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: bit though, on nine to four strike out walk ratio.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Kind of a low strikeout rate this month to one
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: point five to sixty RA though, so he's still in
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: decent form right now, but he doesn't duell against the Cardinals,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: even though their offense is pretty lousy and one hundred
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: and thirteen at bats sixteen to seven strike aut walk
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: ratio three fifty four, batting average allowed, nine sixty seven ops.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: That's not good. So tie on. He looks like he's
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: pitching really well right now. He's in good form, but
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: you have to kind of contrast that with the fact
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: that he doesn't dwell against Saint Louis. So it's an
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: interesting matchup here. Man. The Cubs are very public throughout
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: for minus one or down for minus one seventy to
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty eight on the money line, eighty seven
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only eighty five percent of the cash.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: It looks like the money is kind of leaning towards
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis there. You could take a shot with Saint
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Lewis in this one if you want to. I mean,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: McGreevy seems like he has the matchup edge here, but
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: he's not. The pitchers in the better form right now,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: so it's for me. I mean, I'm not gonna give
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: it out as a play. I mean I would slightly
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: lean that way. And when I first looked at it,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: just seeing the two starting pitchers, I was thinking maybe
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: an under but it seems dangerous with tie on not
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: doing well against Saint Louis and with the wind blowing out,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: total up a little bit to nine heavily juice to
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: the over potentially nine and a half seventy three percent
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: of tickets only seventy one percent of cash on the
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: over though, so the public is coming in on the
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: over and the money a little bit less. So so
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: I guess do with that information what you will. But
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: I guess with this starting pitching matchup, you could maybe
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: argue the totals a little bit too high. But I
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: think the better way to look at this game, in
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: my opinion, is Saint Louis probably maybe even like a
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: run line or something, or maybe just on the money line.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: You'll get a pretty decent underdog price there if you
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: do that. Saint Louis, Yes, say a jerk at Buffalo
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: ways were at least eating jerk wings at the same
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: time at least uh to uh to, you know, go
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: with the theme there, buffalo wild wings. Man. It's tough
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: to decide on a sauce. I usually get multiple different
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: types of sauces. You gotta gotta, you know, vary it up, variety.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: It's a spice of life, man, and then you know,
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: do the the blaze and wings stuff as well, which
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey knows I talked about when I couldn't get the
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: uh the sting off of my hands even with you know,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: washing my hands, I still had the blazing wings sauce
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: like just permeating into my body basically, and then I
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: uh went to piss and I like numbed my cock
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: basically just because I touched it when I took a piss.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Oh man, Uh yeah, that was a fun time. Uh
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: when I was with my friend going to to see
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: sausage party and it was a sausage party in my pants,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: all right, man. Tampa Bay at Toronto, I mean Toronto,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: they're basically playing for the same thing as the Yankees.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: They're trying to win the Ale East. Here. They've been
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: a top the Ale East basically since July, I think,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees have not actually surpassed, not even though
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: they've been tied. Tampa Bay does have the opportunity to
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: spoil Toronto's season, But I hope Tampa Bay just loses intentionally, man,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: to be honest, I hope Tampa just hates the Yankees
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: so much that they're like here, Toronto have the division.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Toronto won yesterday four to two. But man, this is
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Toronto's got the more difficult of these two series between
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: them and the Yankees. Man, Tampa, they're not that bad
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: of a team. They're better than the record looks. As
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I've kept saying, Tampa just kind of got a little
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: bit unlucky with the way that their matchups worked out.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: They're playing in a difficult division. It is the way
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: that it is. Man, Tampa has the better bullpen out
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: of these two teams. I think only use one relief pitcher.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Yesterday Toronto used a bunch. They used whatever that is for.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: So Tampa does have a bullpen edge in this game.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Toronto has the way better offense. Starting pitching, Joe Boyle
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Rays. Mediocre numbers for him four
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: point four ERA, one point three to four WHIP. He's
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: been way worse on the road eight point one five
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: road ERA, so that's not a good sign. He hasn't
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: pitched that much. He pitched once in April and then
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: they started using him regularly in July and he's been
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: pretty much mediocre this month. He's been good in two outings,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: including shutting out Toronto for six innings though the last
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: time he faced Toronto. He's got a fourteen to four
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: strike a walker hissue this month and he's only allowed
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: one on run a point eighty seven era excuse me
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: era this month. But Toronto did just see him, so
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: that means that Toronto is now familiar with him, so
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: he might not do as well this timeout. So it's
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a bad matchup for him in
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: that regard. Although Toronto when they have faced him it
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good, but it was mostly that one It
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: was mostly that one game against them, twenty four at
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: bats five, zero strike out, walk ratio, two to h
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: eight batting average, a lot of four fifty eight ohps.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: So Boyle did do well against in that time. But
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: again I think he had like the unfamiliarity advantage of
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: that time, and now he doesn't have that anymore. So
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Toronto might be able to hit him better in this game,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: but he still might do well. I mean, it depends
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: how good really is Boyle. We don't really know exactly
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Keith you got. You're betting on Springer to hit a
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: home run off Boyle. I don't like the home run
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: props because you just never get good enough value on it. Man, Like,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: even the best hitter in the league, you know, Raleigh
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: or whatever, the best home run hitter is really still
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: only going to hit a home run, Like what is
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: it like once every I mean probably more than ten
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: at bats like go by between home runs for those guys.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: So like, you never get good enough value on the
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: home run props because the books know that, and it's
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: still plus money for you. So everybody kind of likes
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: to make that bet because it looks like it's value,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: but it isn't. The books know that. They make a
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: lot of money off of that. So I like, if
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: you want to play like a hitter prop, I recommend
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: hits plus runs plus RBIs on that particular batter and
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: you'll be getting somewhere between like one and a half
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: and two and a half, depending on what the who
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: the batter is. George Springer, by the way, has the
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: only extra base hit that Toronto has off of boil.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: He did have a double, it looks like in that game,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: so I guess take that for what it's worth. He
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: might be able to do something in this game. But yeah,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I do recommend hits plus runs floss RBIs instead of
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: total bases as well, because with total basses, if your
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: guy walks, the at bat completely gets erased because it
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: doesn't count for total bases. But at least with hits
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: pluss runs floss RBIs if the guy walks, you at
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: least have a chance that he scores a run or
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: he could even walk in orrun and get an RBI
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: on it. White Sox at Washington this is one of
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: the one of the worst series that's going on right now,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: two absolutely dead teams. Washington return home from a road
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: trip yesterday and they lost ten to nine, So now
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: they're in a spot where they might bounce back in
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: this game. Because I talk about when a team returns
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip, it can be a distracted spot,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: especially when you're a bad team like Washington. But if
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: that team loses, sometimes they will refocus in the next game,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: and maybe they will in this game against the White Sox.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: You got two bad bullpens here. The White Sox use
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: four of their relieve pitchers yesterday. Washington used even more
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: than that, five I think is what that is. And
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Washington's bullpend is even worse than the White Sox. Washington's
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: like a bottom two bullpend and all of baseball, they
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: are really really bad. So somebody to keep in mind there.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I think, did I say I lean to the over
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: yesterday in that game? I don't know if I did
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: or not, but it definitely happened, and it might happen
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: again in this game yesterday a ten to nine final.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Washington is the better offense of these two, but it's
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: not that significant. The offenses aren't really that good. But
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: sometimes when the pitching is so bad and it doesn't
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: even really matter that much, like the game doesn't matter anymore.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: A lot of times you just see that the batters
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: just come out swinging, man, and just having some fun.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: So you do. It's almost like that All Star game effect,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: and you know, the fielders just don't give a shit
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: as much the pitchers don't give as much of a shit.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: It depends, man. It might be another one of those
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: games here. Though Sean Burke is pitching for the White Sox.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I believe this is his rookie season. He hasn't been
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: that good. He's been okay. Four point two nine ERA
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: one point four to seven. Whip is pretty bad though.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: The ERA is tolerable, but the Whip putting too many
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: guys on base man his era should probably be worse
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: than it is. He is a little bit worse on
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: the road as well, four point seven to eight road ERA.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: This month, he hasn't been that good thirteen to eight
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, four point three to eight ERA.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: He's not going deep into games. I think they're kind
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: of limiting his pitch count a little bit because they're
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: going nowhere this year. They don't really want to wreck
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: his arm and burn him out as a young pitcher.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: But he hasn't made it past four and a third
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: innings in his last five outings, so you'll probably get
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: something similar here. He'll probably go about four innings in
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: this game. But he does have the advantage of Washington
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: never having faced him before. So these young pitchers and
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: they do have a little bit of an edge sometimes,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: and they're facing hitters that I haven't seen them before
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: because the hitters have to try to figure him out
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: on the fly. Oh wait, I didn't talk about Toronto start.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: I'll do that in a minute. Jake Irvin is pitching
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: for Washington. He's been awful. Five point six ninety IRA
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: one point four to four whip for Irvin. That's obviously bad.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit better at home five point
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: three three e RA is still not good, really bad.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: This month. He's been in an awful for him recently
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: seven point seven to eighty RA. His RA in August
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: was even worse sixteen to eight strike a walk race
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: here this month, he's not pitching well. Things are not
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: going well for him at all. I believe by the way,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: he was the pitcher on the mound when that ridiculous
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: catch was made in the outfield by I don't remember
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the guys Jacob Young I think is his name. It was,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Which was which game was that? That was a game?
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even remember what game that was. But Irvin
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: was the pitcher in that game, I'm pretty sure. And
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: the Young like tried to catch it, went off his glove,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: looked like it was gonna fall to the ground. He
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: kicked it hack he sacked it up off his foot
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: and still caught it. I believe Irvin was the pitcher
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: in that game, so I guess it was that game
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: against the Mets. But anyway, yeah, that was that was
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: a crazy fielding play there. But yeah, Ervan, he did
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: actually pitch pretty well in that game against the Mets
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: five and a third innings to Eur and runs a
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: lot of it. I think it would have been a
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: little bit more if that catch didn nap and five
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk ratio, but still he's not
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: in good form right now. But the White Sox had
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: never faced him before, so he does have that unfamiliarity edge.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Even though I'm looking at this and I'm thinking, yeah,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: neither starting pitcher is that good. Probably an over makes
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: sense in this game, but total is a little bit
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: down for eight and half juicy over to just eight
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: and a half, and both pitchers are pretty unfamiliar. I mean,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: they are completely unfamiliar to the opposing hitters, So that
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: kind of it's a little bit of a drawback as
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: far as playing the over, so I don't want to
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: do it, even though I probably do still slightly into
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: an over there, especially with the bad bull pens. The
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on Washington for what it's worth, they're
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: down for minus one twenty one to fifteen. They are
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: kind of in that bounce back spot. But I wouldn't
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: want to have my money on Jake Cervin. Fifty nine
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty two percent of the cash coming in.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: I know the White Sox offense is really bad though
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on Washington. But yeah, I mean,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: you're playing with fire if you want. Jake Irvin Man Toronto.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: By the way, I forgot to mention, I forgot to
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: finish this off and then show the odds on this.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Trey Y Savage just pitching for the Blue Jays. Don't
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: know how to pronounce his name. He's a young pitcher.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: He's only twenty two. He's a rookie. Uh. He had
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: one good start and one bad start, so five VRA
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: one point four to four whip not much you can
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: really take away from any of that. He hasn't pitched
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: it at home yet either, so his first two starts
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: were both on the road. The first one was at Tampa,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: which is a hitter friendly ballpark in the temporary stadium
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: they're and he pitched well against Tampa a five innings,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: pitch one on and run, allowed nine strikeouts, two walks,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: really solid performance. But then he followed that up with
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the worst performance against Kansas City in a pitcher friendly
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: park against a weaker offense, and he only went four innings,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: alloing four earned runs and had more walks than strikeouts,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: three walks too, strikeouts. That's not a great sign. I mean,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: his first start was a really good sign. So it's
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: kind of hard to figure out what you're gonna get
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: out of him. I mean, he's a highly touted prospect.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: His numbers in the minors, his Scotty reports, they all
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: look pretty good. So I think he should probably bounce back,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: But it's difficult to say. And the problem here is
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: he's facing Tampa Bay again here, so he doesn't have
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity yet here because Tampa did see him that
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: one time. So the advantage that he had in that
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: game of being unfamiliar to them is gone because Tampa
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: just saw him, So he doesn't have that advantage anymore.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: So take from that what you will. He had eighteen
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: at bats against some nine strikeouts, two walks. Like I said,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: only one extra base hit allowed was a double from
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Diaz one sixty seven batting average allowed four to seventy
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: two o ps. But I don't expect you Savage to
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: do quite as well this time out of the money
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: is coming in Onto Toronto. They did drop for minus
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: one sixty five to minus one fifty two, but you're
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: not really getting a great price on Toronto here. I mean, yes,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: they are the team with the motivation here, although Tampa
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: might be motivated in a divisional battle to try to
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: spoil their season. Sixty three percent of tickets, ninety two
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Toronto, so the money is
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: coming in on Toronto. I mean, if you really want
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: to play Toronto here, probably I would say run line
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings and just go with you
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Savage to outpitch Boil in this one. Yay Savage. I
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: don't know how do you. I gotta figure out how
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: you pronounce that guy's name, man, But yeah, whatever. Colorado
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: at San Francisco, Uh, two teams playing out the stretch here, man.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: San Francisco won yesterday six to three. San Francisco is
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: the better team. They actually have the better offense. That's
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: how bad Colorado's offense is. Sar Francisco has the better
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen significantly, only use two relief pitchers over the last
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: two days. Colorado used more than that, use six relief pitchers,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: so San Francisco does have a big bull ben edge
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: in this game. Kyle Freeland is pitching for Colorado. He
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: has been one of their less bad pitchers five VR
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: one point four to five WHIP. I know it still
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: doesn't sound good. He's been decent on the road four
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: point three six ERA away from Courtsefield, so not as
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: bad on the road, and this month he actually has
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: been good a three point five to five VRA twenty
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: three to three strike out walk ratio, so Freeland is
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: actually in pretty good form right now. He's allowed two
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in all but one start this month,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: which was one at Courtsefield. He didn't do well against
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: San Francisco though, on September second, he didn't even record
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: an out and he gave up two earned runs, so
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: that's pretty bad. Overall. San Francisco's seen him a lot
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteen at bats and his numbers are
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: not quite that bad, although they're not good at all.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Twenty to twelve strike out walk ratio, way too many walks,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: although seven or floor as so he kind of pitches
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: around him. Two sixty one batting average allowed and eight
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: h six o ps, so still not great numbers, but
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: better than not recording an out. Freeland is in pretty
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: good form right now. At least he's going up against
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: Justin Verlander, and we got to see what Justin Verlander
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: is like saying out there, because this might be this
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: might be the last time he pitches in his career. Man, Like,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: I really don't know, but he hasn't announced it. I
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: don't think so, I don't know, man. I mean, he's
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: forty two years old. He hasn't been that good this year.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Is he gonna finally pack it in? Maybe he's not.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: It's possible he's not. But this is going to be
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: his last start of the season obviously, so there might
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of hype around that. Like in
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: case this is his last start ever, he might get
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit more pumped for it. He's got a
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: three point eight eight ERA this year. One point three
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: to eight whip is not good, but he's still limiting
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: the damage. He's been pretty good in this stadium three
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: point eight ERA. Again, he's putting too many guys on base, though.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: He's got a one point eight five ERA this month,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: which is pretty commendable, especially at his age. He's been
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: good for a couple of months now, but still putting
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base via the walk. Sixteen to
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: eight strike a walk great shore this month. That's not
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: good against Colorado they have a bad offense. Most of
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: this is in the past, but he's done really well
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: against them, thirty two at bats, seven strikeouts, one walk.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: He's selling to a one to fifty six average against
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: him in four to thirty two ops. So he does
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: do well against this week offense. So he might do
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: well here. But if you want San Francisco, you got
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: to pay a huge price. They're down for minus two
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: to thirty five to minus two to eighteen on the
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: money line, sixty three percent of tickets, seventy five percent
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on San Francisco. So the
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: money coming in on San Francisco. I mean, I can
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: see some arguments for an under here. I mean, you
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: got two pretty weak offenses, you got a pitcher friendly
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: ballpark here. Freeland is pitching pretty well right now. Verlander
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: also is in pitching too badly right now. Eighty percent
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on the over.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Don't think I agree with that. I think I would
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: look more towards an under. You gotta worry about Colorado's bullpens.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: You could maybe do it first five innings, or maybe
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: you just suck it up because San Francisco's bullpen is good,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: so you at least get half of that going for
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: you in the later part of the game. We will
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: say Detroit at Boston Big Series year Man Red Sox
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: won four to three on the walkoff yesterday. They've won
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: three of their last four games. Red Sox have clinched
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: a playoff spot now, so the Red Sox might take
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a step back now because the
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have made the playoffs, Detroit has not yet.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox are guaranteed a wildcard spot. It's just
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: a matter of which wildcard are they going to be
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: shuffling wildcard positions. I don't think it's really that much
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: of a motivator. So Detroit is the more motivated team here,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: as you know, they have something to play for. They're
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: trying to play for the division they're trying to make.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: They might not even make the playoffs, so they're really
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: trying to make the playoffs. So though, right now, Houston
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: is the likeliest team to be left out completely though,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: because they're a one game behind both Cleveland and Detroit.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: I believe in the Red Sox are one game ahead
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: of those two teams. I believe is what the situation
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: is the Red Sox use a lot of relief staff
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: yesterday they use what is that six relief pitchers. That's
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: not good. So the Red Sox bullpend, well, it is
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: the better of the two bullpens. It's probably not the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: better one right here because Detroit used less of their
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday. So Detroit's bullpen is a better rest shape.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox had the somewhat better offense here, believe
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: it or not. But the problem with the Detroit here
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: having arrested bullpen is that they haven't decided on a
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher. And you know how often Detroit with aj
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Hinch they go with a bullpen game, so they might
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: be doing that in this game. We see I know
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the Yeah, they've decided on Keeter Montero here, so it's
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: a bullpen ish game for Detroit here. We can look
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: him up here, I mean, he's one of their guys,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: that is one of their openers. Uh, he's mediocre. Four
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: point four to eighty RA one point four whip for
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: him is not very good. He's a little bit better
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: on the road three point nine to three ROADYRA. This
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: month he's been decent three point four six ERA, twelve
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: to six strikeout walk ratio him, he's usually gonna get
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: you about three or four innings when he comes in there.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: He'll start the game and then depending on the matchups
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: and whatever, they'll go to the bullpen after he's in
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: there for a few winnings, which is probably what's gonna
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: happen here. He's walked too many guys this month, but
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: four of the walks are in his last out and
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: he gets Atlanta, but that was a bad outing, so
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: maybe he's coming back out of form again here. The
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Red Sox haven't seen much of him twelve at bats,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: but they've hit him pretty well. They have a four
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: to seventeen batting average off him one thousand and one
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: sixty seven ops. Bregman has a home run off him
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: three to zero strike out walk ratio though, but Montero
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: might not really actually do that well in this game,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: and you know that means Detroit's gonna have some extra
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage because he's probably not gonna go the full
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: starter's workload. The Red Sox have Connolly or early pitching
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: who really has kind of surpassed Peyton Toley, although totally's
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: been coming out of the bulp and early doesn't throw
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: as hard as totally, although he's kind of ramped up
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: his fastball a bit so it's in the mid to
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: high nineties now. But early has been good for the
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: Red Sox far one point eight eight ERA, one point
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: one to two WHIP. He's been good at home one
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: point six nine ERA. He's made three starts, so it's
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: a small sample size. But what's impressive about what he's
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: done is both road starts were at those horrible temporary
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: stadiums that are both hit or friendly, at the A's
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: and Tampa, and he did fairly well in both of
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: those starts. And he faced the A's a second time
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: immediately and shut them down again, so that's a good
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: sign as well. And he has a twenty two to
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk ratio of fourteen to third innings also,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: that is a good sign. He didn't allow any home
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: runs in those home run friendly parks too, so he
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: is pitching pretty well. Man. He didn't pitch quite as
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: well last time out against Tampa. They'll give up two
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: earned runs on the lasted four innings. They don't want
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: to like overwork him though, and he's gonna be probably
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: in the rotation for the playoffs, I would imagine, because
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: usually you go with the four man rotation of the playoffs.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: But he's been good enough that I think you got
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: to put him in the in the rotation in the playoffs.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens there. But they obviously don't
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: want to burn him out. But that's not really a
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: concern yet when he's made three starts in the majors
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: this year, and of course Detroit has never seen him before,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: so I do think you have to give early the
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: edge year in the starting pitching matchup. The Red Sox
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: are down for mist one thirty to twenty eight. Though
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Detroit looks like they're public right now, eighty nine percent
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: of tickets don't really see a legitimate cash percentage yet
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: on this total is pretty high at nine. The Red
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Sox bullpend might be a bit of a concern. I
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: think if you go Red Sox here, you'd want to
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: go first five innings only in this game, just because
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: they have an edge in the starting pitching matchup most likely,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to touch it. Jeffrey, thanks for
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Man. Assad Is pitching tomorrow might be a
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: spot to take Saint Louis tomorrow. Man, I still don't
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: think Asad is that good. We will see though, We'll
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: see what that matchup looks like. I haven't gotten to
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: my baseball plays yet, which they're both in the in
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: the night slate. By the way, both of my baseball plays.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: Then I'm going to give out today a night games.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: We're still in the afternoon slate. The last game in
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: the afternoon is one that means a lot as far
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: as the playoffs are concerned. The Mets are playing Miami again.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Miami beat them yesterday. Miami is showing up for these games, man,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: late in the season. Miami won six to two yesterday. Miami,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: I mean it's it's their last series of the year.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: They get the Mets coming into their place, so yeah,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: it's a motivation. They have the chance to kick the
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Mets out of the playoffs, so Miami is definitely motivated here.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: The Mets, too, have the better offense and the better bullpend,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: though they're definitely the better team. Bullpen usage was slightly
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: towards towards Miami yesterday as far as Miami having less
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage yesterday, but they use two relievers the Mets
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: use three. I mean the Mets still have the better
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: bullpen here. Now the question is what's gonna happen with
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup? Is the Mets are going with
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Clay Holmes in this game. He's been all right this year.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: A three point sixty six ERA is obviously good, but
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: a one point three to three whip his whip is
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: too high, man. I mean, he's getting a little bit
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: lucky as far as thera being like that, He's basically
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: got the same home and away doesn't really matter his schedule.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: He might also be thrown off because he had a
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: couple of shorter starts on September sixteenth and September twenty first,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: and then they brought him out of a bullpen to
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: pitch an inning against the Cubs on the twenty fourth,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: and now he's making a start, So it seems like
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: he might not have a full start in this game.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: It seems like on this weird schedule they might bring
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: him in and have him go like three four innings
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: this time and then go to the bullpend, depending on
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: like what's going on in the game, I guess, so
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: the Mets might start like mix mixing and matching pitchers
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: in this game, depending on the matchups, especially with only
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: one game left tomorrow, so the Mets are probably gonna
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: do something a little bit weird with their pitching in
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: this game, man, So I don't know what we want
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: to do with this. Holmes hasn't exactly been that great
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: this month. Four point one to five vras alright, sixteen
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: to seven strike a walk ratio. It's too many walks,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't had a problem with the walks in
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: his recent outings, though again, he's not pitching that many
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: innings in those outings, so I don't think he's gonna
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: give us a deep start in this game, man. That
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: would be my guess. Against Miami, He's been okay. Forty
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: nine at bats, fifteen to three strikeout walk rat sho
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: is good, two eighty six batting average allowed and six
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: thirty three OPS is pretty low. So Homes does too
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: fairly well against Miami. So maybe if he's pitching well,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: he will stay in the game for more of a
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: starter his workload. Who knows he's going up against Yuri Perez,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: so I think he is the more talented pitcher, but
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: he's had some games where he's just blown up this year.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: He's trying to come back from Tommy John surgery and
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: he's still only twenty two years old, so crazy to
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: have major arm surgery that early in your career. But
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: he's shown signs of being his former self this year.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: He's got a four point two ERA, which isn't that good.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: One point zero four whip is good. He's been way
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: better at home two point six to three home ERA,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: so he is good here at home. Miami did win
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: his last three outings. Now. He has a four point
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA this month, which of course doesn't look good,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: but it's mostly because he got blown up in one
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: road starting against Washington, and he has a twenty four
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: to two strikeout walk right here this month. So one
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: of his main problems that he's had has been walks,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure in his career, but that hasn't been
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: a problem this month. This command has been really good.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: He hasn't allowed any runs in his last two outings,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: both on the road, one at Course Field, so it's
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: difficult to pitch there. Even though Colorado's offense isn't that good,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: it's still a high elevation environment there. And then he
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: did not allow any runs at four innings against Texas
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: that's also a weak offense in a pitcher from the park.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: But at least he is kind of back and form now,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: at the very least. However, the last time he faced
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: the Mets was just horrendous at the Mets back on
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: August twenty ninth, who's like one of his worst starts
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: of his career. He didn't even go the full first inning,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: gave up five and runs, two home runs, three hits,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: two walks, didn't strike anybody out, Absolutely terrible. The Mets
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: don't have a whole lot of experience against him, but
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: that was basically their experience against it. They have a
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: little bit more experience against him than that they have
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: seventeen at bats against and they have absolutely destroyed him.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Four strikeouts, five walks, four to seventy one average allowed,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: three home runs allowed, which most of it was in
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: that one game though, oneenty six to twenty four. Oh ps,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: you gotta think he's not gonna be as bad as
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: that again in this game. So he's probably gonna be
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: better in this game. But do you trust Uri Perez
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: though in this one? I don't think you really can. Uh.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: The Mets are up for my one, twenty six to
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: one to twenty eight. So you're paying quite a price
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: though for the Mets on the road there with a
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: matchup like this, because I don't know that you could
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: trust homes either. Eighty seven percent of tickets ninety eight
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Mets side, I think,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, for me, I'm kind of thinking an over
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: makes more sense in this game, but the money's coming
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: in on the under. The totals down from eight and
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: a half to eight fifty eight percent of tickets on
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: the over, ninety percent of the cash on the under.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: But Perez, with how bad his matchup numbers are homes
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: not being trustworthy and the Mets might be rolling out
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: some extra bullpen arms here. To me, it seems like
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: more of an over game, but that would be going
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: completely against the market. Minnesota at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is only
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: one game behind the Brewers. So Philadelphia, I don't know
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: how motivated they're gonna be for this, but they do
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: play better at home and they have a chance to
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: catch the Brewers. I think Philadelphia would have to win
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: both of their remaining two games, while the Brewers would
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: have to go oh and two. I'm pretty sure because
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: I think the Brewers do have the tiebreaker against them,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: but you can correct me if I'm wrong about that.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I might be wrong. So Philadelphia might have a little
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: bit to play for as far as the potential of
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: getting the top seed in all of the National League.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: They won yesterday three to one against Minnesota. Minnesota is
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: just playing out the stretch here, but maybe Minnesota has
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: some motivation here. I mean they did win or excuse
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia one yesterday, right, Yeah, they won three to one,
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how much motivation Minnesota really has
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: at this point playing out the stretch. But Philadelphia does
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: have Minnesota's former closer, Duran, not Jaron Duran, Joan Duran,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's closed. They traded him to Philadelphia the trade deadline,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: I think, along with maybe one other guy. I forget
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: what the trade was, So there might be some motivation
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: and that I think Mick Able today's starter, was actually
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: part of that trade as well, where Philadelphia has sent
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: him over to Minnesota as part of that trade, I think.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit crazy what's going on in
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: this game. Both of these bullpen stink. Minnesota's is the
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: worst of the two. They used three relief pitchers just today, Philadelphia.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Only is one which was Duran or Duran Duran Philadelphia, Yeah,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I mean they have the bullpen advantage here. Surprisingly, Minnesota's
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: is just that bad. Philadelphia has the better offense as well.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Mick Abel from Minnesota. Like I said, he was on Philadelphia.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: He's still a pretty young guy. He's shown glimpses of
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: being okay, but his overall numbers are just not good.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what we're gonna get out of
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: him there Man seven point three six, ERA one point
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: six and Whip. Obviously those numbers are awful. He is
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: facing the team that traded them away, though, so that
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: is a motivating factor. When you get to the first
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: time you get to face the team that traded you away,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: you get a little bit pumped up for it, like, oh,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: I'm not good enough for you. Well, I'll show you.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been very good since being acquired by Minnesota,
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: though he's made three appearances. I don't know if any
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: of them were actually starts, but it's been pretty bad.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: He had a twenty four point seven to five yr
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: in his first two starts against the White Sox in
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: San Diego. Not exactly good there. Those are not terrific offenses,
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: and then Cleveland also not a terrific offense. He at
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: least settled down a little bit, which was his one
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: outing this month after they gave him like a month off.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Maybe they sent him to the miners or whatever. He
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: went four innings on tour and runs in that one,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: but he still walked three guys six strikeouts. Still, it
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: does show that he's at least kind of getting his
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: bearings again. It might pitch a little bit better, but
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be difficult to face Philly's offense. Philly has
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: never actually faced him before though, I mean, he was
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: on their team, so I don't know. Maybe they've fased
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: him in like a practice capacity or whatever. That's not
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: like an actual game environment, man, so Philly is unfamiliar
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: with him. So at least he does have that advantage
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: facing hitters that haven't seen him in a real game
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: environment before. I don't know if that's gonna be enough,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: though Philly's got ron your Suarez pitching pretty good season
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: for him three point one two ERA, one point two whip.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse at home though three
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: point three to ninety RA is still not bad. Though
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: this month three point six eighty ra twenty three to
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio not bad, although too many
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: walks for the most part. He just lost a streak
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: that he had where Philadelphia had won six straight starts
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: for him and then they lost last time. But he
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: didn't do well at Arizona last time. I'll give up
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: six orred runs in four innings, so that might mean
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: he's coming a little bit out of form here. I
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: don't know. It kind of remains to be seeing him,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: and that's a tough hitters. It's a good park for
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: hitters that at the Arizona Stadium there in Arizona is
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: a good hitting team. Suarez against minnesot Do. They only
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: have nineteen at bats against him, but he's had the
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: upper hand in that matchup. They don't have any extra
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: base hits off him. Six strikeouts, one walk, two sixty
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: three batting average allowed in five sixty three ops, so
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Suarez has done pretty well against them. Yeah, I mean,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: even though it's kind of an interesting situation with Able
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: making the start here, I don't know if he's gonna
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: be able to go that deep into this game or
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: pitch well. So it would be better if he was
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: going up, but gets a guy named Cain. By the way,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: bring back Matt Kin. That was his name, right, He
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: was a Giants pitcher not that long ago that you
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: get Kane versus Able, Philly's up for minus one ninety
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: five to minus two hundred. Here, we don't really see
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: any valid percentages yet on this game. So honestly, I mean,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: I just don't know what you want to do with
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: this game. It's a very hard game to read for me.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could see some arguments for a first
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: five inning under in this game, and it really depends
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: on how well you think Able is gonna do it,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: if that motivational factor is gonna actually help him enough.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: But we will see. I didn't put the games that
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: I have plays on in the title here because they
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: both are shit games, and one is Pittsburgh in Atlanta
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: a Shitsburg and Atlanta. So I'm gonna have a play
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: on that game, which I'll give out at the end
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: of the show. Texas at Cleveland, of course, this is
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: one of the games with implications. Cleveland's lost too in
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: a row. Now losing to Detroit and then losing the
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: first game of this series to Texas. Cleveland is still
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: holding on to the divisional lead right now, they're tied
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: with Detroit with the tiebreaker against Detroit. Really really crazy, man.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: It looks like Cleveland is pretty likely to make the
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: playoffs at this point, but they got to win to
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: make sure that they do. Texas seems like they're still
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: showing up for some of these games, so I mean
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: they came to play yesterday. At least Texas has won
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: a couple of games in a row now, so Texas
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: does have the opportunity to boot one of the other
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: wildcard teams out of the playoffs here. So just like
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Texas got eliminated, maybe they want to do the same
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: thing to Cleveland here. Potentially, we got two pretty good
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: bullpends here. Cleveland's is actually in the worst shape after
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: they use five or four relief pitchers yesterday, excuse me,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: some somewhat heavy usage from them. Texas only used two yesterday,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: so you got to give Texas the bullpen edge. Hear, though,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Cleveland generally has the better bullpen, but they're both pretty
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: good bullpens. Cleveland has the worst of the two offenses.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: They're both terrible offenses. Cleveland's is the worst of the two.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: Yesterday went over, So it's a good thing I didn't
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: actually go forward with that under yesterday, which I was
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: considering the under in the game yesterday, and that was
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: a Losers was a seven to three Texas win yesterday.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: Pretty ill. I had to see Texas scoring seven runs,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: although it has happened before. Jacob Lats is pitching for
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Texas here. Good numbers on the season for the most part. Well,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: two point eighty RA is obviously good. One point two
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: to six whip is a little bit high, so you
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: kind of expected his ERA to be a little bit
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: higher than it is. He's been a little bit worse
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: on the road three point two seven road era with Lats. Though,
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: you don't know how long he's gonna go in this
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: game because he's made some almost full start so he's
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: gone more than five innings in games, but he also
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: has made some shortened starts to some relief appearances and whatever,
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: So you don't know what he's gonna do in this game. Man,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: It depends whether or not Texas wants to kind of
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: go with more of a bullpen approach here or whether
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: they're gonna let him pitch longer into the game. Again,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: when you get these last games of the season are
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: kind of difficult to predict as far as like, what
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: are these teams gonna do with some of these starters here.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Lats this month as a one point five to nine ERA,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: which is good, buten a nine to eight strikeout walk
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: ratio is not good. Not a high strikeout rate, but
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: it's still too many walks as well. Although he's not
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: allowing that many hits, so he is difficult to hit.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Cleveland doesn't hit that well, but in seven at bats
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: they've actually been able to hit Lats. So the only
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: four their hitters have faced him before Hedges has a
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: home run off them, they have two strikeouts, no walks.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: They have a four to twenty nine average in one
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: eighty six oh ps against him, but it is a
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: small sample size so you have to kind of not
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: put too much weight into it. But Cleveland has been
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: able to hit him when they have seen him. Joey
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: Can't is pitching for Cleveland. He's been pitching pretty well recently.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: He was a relief pitcher earlier in the season and
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: he's been in the starting rotation for a bit and
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: doing pretty well for Cleveland. Three point two one ERA
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: this year, one point three whip is still too high,
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: though indicates that maybe there should be some ra regression
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: in store there. Three point seven to two ERA at home,
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: so he is actually a little bit worse at home
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: this month. One point one six ERA, twenty to six
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, so he has been pretty good
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: this month. Continuing to pitch pretty well here man up
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: against Texas, which is not the best offense here in
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Texas has never faced him before, so Cantello does have
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an extra edge here the fact
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: that Texas has never faced him before. So I do
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: think Cleveland has the upper hand early in this game.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on Texas, though, for whatever reason,
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: Cleveland down for minus one fifty five one forty one.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: I told you in some of these cases we have
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: teams that are like really rerillian must win scenarios here
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: for them, or really for the most part, those teams
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: tend to get overvalued a little, and I think that's
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing with the marketer. I think the professionals
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: are basically just saying we don't think Cleveland should be
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: this heavy of a favorite, even though maybe they will
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: win the game, but they're down to minus one forty
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: one now seventy eight percent of tickets, percent of the
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: tickets on Cleveland, fifty six percent of the cash coming
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: in back on the Texas side, I would probably lean
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: to Cleveland in the first five innings because Cantillo does
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: have the upper hand here as far as I think
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: he's in the better form right now. He goes a
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: little bit deeper into games. Texas has never seen it before.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: You know how long lasts will last in this one.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: So I think the biggest advantage for Cleveland is the
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: first five because Cleveland's bullpen is a little bit used
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: right now. So that's probably the way I would lean
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: in that game. You might have to go a run
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: line with it, though, which is a little bit difficult
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: to do with a team that can't score, although you'll
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: only asking him to be ahead by a run after
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: five innings if you go with the minus half run line.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati Milwaukee. I was kind of considering it under in
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: this game. I decided not to do it. We did
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: get the underwright yesterday. Milwaukee took the loss. Yes today.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati has more to play for all the Milwaukee probably
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: doesn't want Philly to overtake them for the one seed.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's been sitting with the one seed the best record
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: in all of baseball I think, basically most of the season,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: so they I believe they want to hang on to that.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: I believe they still have the best record in baseball
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: right I don't think any team in the AL has
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: overtaken them, not they can't, So it's gonna be between
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee and Philadelphia for that ho or. Milwaukee probably does
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: want to hang on to that at the very least.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: But Cincinnati, they're one of the most motivated teams right
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: now because they're in They're tied for the last wildcard
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: spot with the Mets, and I don't know which team
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: has a tiebreaker. I actually don't even know where are
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: we looking here. Let's look at the wildcard standings here
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: and see Cincinnati has the tiebreaker against the Mets because
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: they're listed as being ahead of them right now. So
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: that's crazy. So Cincinnati, they do need to continue winning
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: though to hold on to it here. So there is
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: some pretty big motivation on Cincinnati side here, way more
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: than what Milwaukee has right now. So but you're probably
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: gonna pay a little bit for that. Milwaukee has the
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: better of the two bullpens. The only two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: including Myers is more of a long relief man, so
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's in pretty good shape. Cincinnati has four relief
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, so Cincinnati's bullpen is not in as good
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: as shape here. So Milwaukee does have a bullpen edge here.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee does have the better offense, although they're not as
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: good at home. They're going up against Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati,
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: and the Abbot's been really good this year. Two point
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: eight ERA, one point one to six whip. The thing
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: about him is he's surpassed the most innings pitch that
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: he's thrown in his entire career. He's up to one
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty one innings now, so he's twenty three
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: innings above what is max was last year. So you
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: got to worry about him maybe wearing down a little
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: bit here. He's a little bit worse on the road
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: three point three to one road ERA this month, he's
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: he hasn't made it five innings and three of his
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: four outings this month, even though his numbers are still
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: good three point six eighty RA twenty to four strike
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio. He's allowed three or four earned runs
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: in his last three outings, but he's not going as
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: deepen in these outings. He's kind of struggling with his
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: pitch count. Even though he's not walking guys, he's allowing
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: a few too many hits right now, so he seems
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: to be maybe kind of taxed a little bit here
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. Does have good numbers
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: generally against Milwaukee in one hundred and three at bats,
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: twenty nine to seven strike out walk racier two p
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: four average about five ninety four oh ps, so he
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: has done well against them for the most part, so
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: he might do well here. I mean, he's kind of
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: got to show up for this one man, because this
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: is basically the season on the line, So I mean,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think he could afford to be, you know,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: like wearing down here really at the end of the season.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: But he also doesn't want to overwork himself, so it's
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: kind of a it's a little bit of a conundrum there.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Robert Gasser, who did pretty well
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: last year was just his first season in the majors.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: Last year, he wasn't really a strikeout guy, but he
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: only walked one guy in twenty eight innings last year.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: He didn't put many guys on base, had pretty solid
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: numbers last year, so he is starting for the Brewers here.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: I made one appearance this year. It was against a
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: weak Saint Louis lineup, but he wasn't great. He went
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: three innings, allowed to earn runs, did allow a home run, though,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: which was the only hit. He allowed two walks, two strikeouts,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: so I mean, maybe he was just kind of getting
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: his bearings again. Gas are not a great name for
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: him though, because he doesn't actually throw gas It doesn't
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: throw like really hard or anything. But Cincinnati's actually never
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: faced him before, so gas Or might have a little
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: bit of an edge here with the fact that Cincinnati's
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: never faced him before. So even though I worry that
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: gas Er might not be really that good because he
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: doesn't blow guys away, I worry that Abbot's wearing down
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit. So those are kind of my hesitations
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: with this. But if that wasn't the case, I would
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: lean to an under in this game. The totals at
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: seven and a half heavily juice to the overs. He
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: might even be able to find an eight here. Maybe
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: I would go only first five innings on this though,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: if you can find like an under four in the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: first five innings. It looked like you had to pay
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: too much for the under four and a half, so
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: we will see, and the money is coming into Cincinnati. So,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: by the way, if you want Cincinnati, I think it's
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: an okay to look for Cincinnati because of the motivational
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: disparity here in Milwaukee's down for fifty one thirty two,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: so you are getting, in this case Cincinnati, the more
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: motivated team. You're getting them as an underdog, So that's
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: a decent sign. Seventy six percent tickets, ninety four percent
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, so the money is coming
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: in towards Cincinnati, even though the public is kind of
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: on them as well. Here. I would go first five
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: innings though, because I really worry about Cincinnati's bullpen, So
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: if you want Cincinnati, I would do it when it's
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: just Avid in there. But Gaser might be able to
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: kind of duel him there, so I worry about that.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: So I still think it under is probably the better
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: way to look in that game. Arizona at San Diego,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Arizona's kind of in like the dream Crusher spot because
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: they were that close to actually making a wildcard spot
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: even though they sold off of the trade deadline. Now
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: they're officially eliminated with their loss yesterday to San Diego,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: so you might then be kind of a dead team
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: coming into this one in San Diego. They can't win
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: their division now, but I believe they can actually overtake
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: the Can they overtake the Cubs? Maybe they can't. San Diego,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: Where are we at here? I wanted to look at
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: the well, I don't need to look at the wildcard
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Sandys for this San Diego. Oh, actually, this is the wildcard.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: I guess we're looking at the This is the wildcard standings.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: One am I saying San Diego is two games behind
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, So I actually don't know. It depends on
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: who has the tie breaker here, So I don't know
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: if San Diego can change their position. Man, So they're
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: almost pretty much locked in. So you might be able
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: to argue that neither of these teams has that much
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: motivation here. San Diego has the better bullpen. They used
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: five relief pitchers yesterday, though Arizona used four, but they
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: have a significantly worse bullpen, so San Diego still has
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here Arizona has the better offense on
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: the surface, San Diego is the much better starting pitcher here.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: Eduardo Rodriguez this picture for the d Backs. I mean,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: he's shown signs of being his former self, trying to
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: come back from Tommy John and whatever, but he hasn't
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: been very good. Four point nine to one ERA, one
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: point five to six whip is way too high, four
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: point seven to four ERA on the road, a little
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: bit better on the road this month, he actually has
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: been a bit better though, two point three to one ERA,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: seventeen to eight strike a walk ratio. It's still too
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: many walks, but he's actually thrown three shutouts in his
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: last five appearances, so he's actually pitching a little bit
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: better right now. The Dbacks have won five starts in
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: a row for him, but I don't know how motivated
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: they're going to be in this one. But he is
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: pitching well right now. His numbers are pretty good against
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: San Diego in ninety eight at bats, seventeen to nine,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, two forty five average allowed, six'
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: ninety six oh, ps so e rod might actually be
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: able to pitch well in this. One he's going up
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: Against Michael, king who just came back from injury not
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: that long. Ago he's a solid. Pitcher his numbers of
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: this season are still pretty, good although it's been a
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: short season for, him three point five to SEVEN, era
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: one point two. Whip he is way better at home
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: two point five EIGHT era at. Home, again he hasn't
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: really pitched that much though he was. Injured he got
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: injured In, may and then he came back In august
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: and since then he's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: in all but one of his, starts where he got
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: absolutely blown up by The. Mats other than, that he's
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: been fairly, good but still concerned that he walked four
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: guys last time out against The White sox even though
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: it was a five inning, shutout so he doesn't seem
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: like he's fully back and. Form yet his numbers are
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: good against the D backs though in twenty seven at
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: bats five to one strike a Wad uk. RATIO i
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: know it's A sam two. Ops so he has been
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: good Against. Arizona the money's coming in Towards Arizona San
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: diego's that might have won thirty five seventy percent of,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: tickets only fifty two percent of the cash on, them
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: so the money is not agreeing with The San diego.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: SIDE i actually kind of see an argument for a
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: first five inning under here That erod is actually in
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: good form right now And king is pretty. Solid they
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: both actually have decent, matchup, remember so first five under
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: might make. Sense with the total dis low at seven
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: and a, half you're probably looking at a three and
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: a half, there and you, KNOW i don't love, that
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: so but that is probably the way THAT i would
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: look IF i was gonna play that game at. All
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: houston at Anim houston is the team that has the
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: most to play for here really because, basically if they,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: lose they're. Eliminated but that's a pressure, situation, man and
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: you know they're gonna be a favorite here even though
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: they're on the road Against. Anaheim SO i just don't
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: think you can lay a price like this With, houston,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: man even though, yeah they need to. Win anaheim beat
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: them yesterday four to. Three houston not making the playoffs
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: would be crazy after they led the division for so.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Long But, houston they're really not as good As seattle,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: though So houston they do have a better offense Than,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: anaheim though they have a much better bullpend Than anaheim.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Does houston used four relief pitchers, yesterday so Did. Anaheim
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: So houston does have a bullpen edge. Here the problem
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: with that is that aj blue balls listen as their,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: starter AND i think they listened to him as a
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: starter the other, day and that he didn't actually. Start
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: so when you, do when you play these, games if
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: you do start and must, start the bet winds up
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: pushing if that starter doesn't actually. Start so it gets
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit disier when there's like an opener like
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: blue ball listed because he might not actually. Start, UGH
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: i think he probably will. Here he's Gonna he's not
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: gonna blue. Ball he blue balled you last, time, man
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: if you want, to if you wanted to play that.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: Game one point nine to three E R ra point
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: eight to two whip on the. Season he's got good
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: numbers this season two point two FIVE r in the,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: road so he's a little bit worse on the. Road
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: he hasn't allowed to run this entire month with a
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: seventeen to four strike a walk ra here have fourteen. Innings.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: Uh but if he goes out, there he'll probably get,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: you like somewhere. Between MAYBE i would guess he'll probably
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: go two to three innings in this, game assuming he
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: does start this, game and it's gonna depend on the
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: matchups and, whatever so we will see Against. Anaheim they
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: only have two at bats against him from their current,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: lineup zero for two with a strikeout and no, walks
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: so they're not very familiar with. Them but he's not
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: gonna be in the game that, long So houston is
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: going to be using their bullpen. Here But anaeim's bullpen
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: might come into this game somewhat early, too Because caden
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: dana is their starter and he's really young. MAN i
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: think they kind of rushed him to The majors BECAUSE
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: i think he is pretty. Talented he's only twenty, one,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: though and he struggled in The major so far six
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: point three to NINE, era one point sixty six, whip
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: eight point four to FOUR. Era at, homes he's been
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: really bad at. Home he's been a little bit better this.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: MONTH i guess twenty two to twelve strike out walk right,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: here though twelve walks is. Terrible that's really been the.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Issue like he's striking out a lot of, guys not
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: allowing really too many hits or. Anything so really it's
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: the walks or the. Issue he's putting too many guys
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: on base via the walks six point oh FIVE vra this.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: Month so if he can get his command under, control,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: literally he might start doing. Better. Here his numbers are
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: not batting Against. Houston they got twelve at bats against,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: him only one extra mase, hit a double From, carotena two,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: strikeouts no, walks two fifty batting average, allowed and five
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: eighty three. Ops So dana not really terrible Against. Houston,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: interestingly so the money is actually coming in on The
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: anaheim side Here man ninety percent of the tickets and
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: only seventy one percent of the. Cash On. Houston they
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: were reminus one fifty, five favorite another down to minus one.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: Forty so the money Fading houston here because they're in
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: that must win spot and you're paying a price For.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: HOUSTON i, AGAIN i kind of agree with the professionals
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: in THAT i just think this price is totally. Unwarranted
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: it's all because everybody Knows houston has to win at this,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: point but with blue ball on the, mound gonna be
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: a bullpen game, HERE i just don't think that price is.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Justified SO i worry about, it, MAN i don't want
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: to Play anaheim either, though with the pitching that they
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: have going on, here it's very very. Ugly so IF
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: i was gonna play this, GAME i would probably play
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: an over the totals up from nine juice to the
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: under to just straight. NINE i, mean you get the
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: key number nine, there you can go over the number.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: Nine don't want to go over the nine and a.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Half BUT i could see both pitching staff struggle in this,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: one SO i think it over is probably the better
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: way to look. There, yeah blue, balls and then we
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: do Have seattle IN. La although these teams have both
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: clinched their divisions at this, Point i'm pretty, sure so
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: they're both pretty much. Set they're not really playing for
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: anything right. Now The dodgers did get the win last.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: NIGHT i was right about that. GAME i THINK i
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: said THAT i liked the under in that, game especially
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: the first five, innings WHICH i think was also probably.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: CORRECT i didn't look in to. Win the runs were scored,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: though and Then, seattle excusely The dodgers got the win
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: as well With Emmett shehan on the. Mound was a
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: three to two win and that ended the win streak For.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: SEATTLE i Know seattle's really good at, home fifty one
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: to twenty eight at. Home, yeah the first five inning
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: unders still. Got there was a two to one game
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: at that point with The dodgers, winning But seattle lost
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: to win. Streak, man you KNOW i talk about. This
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: when a team loses a long win streak like, this
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: it could tend to hang them. OVER i know it
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: didn't happen the last TIME i lost a win, streak
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: WHICH i was on the game going Against seattle when
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: they lost that other win. STREAK i Had Kansas city
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: in that. GAME i leaned to The dodgers. Yesterday but,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: again when you lose a game like that and then
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: this game doesn't really matter that, much losing the win,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: streak it could hang you over a little. Bit so
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit of an edge for The
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: dodgers here this. Time The dodgers do not have the
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, here they do have the better. Offense The
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: dodgers use a ton of relief pitchers. Yesterday they use
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: six relievers yesterday And seattle only used. Four So seattle
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: does have a bullpen edge. Here so if you do
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: like The, dodgers you gotta go first five innings in this.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: One in my. Opinion both offenses are pretty, solid but
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers are. Solid Tyler glasnow is pitching for The.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: Dodgers he's had kind of a shortened season because of,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: injury but he And snell are both Back Man glassnow And,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: snell Not Ian. Snell that's a Different, Snell Blake. Snell
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: it sounded LIKE i, Said Ian glasnow And snell are
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: both pitching pretty well up right, Now, Man so that's
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: really gonna bolster the Dodgers our rotation going into the playoffs,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: Here so The dodgers are gonna be pretty, DANGEROUS i
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: think if those guys are. Healthy glasnow three point THREE,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: era one point zero nine whip good. Stuff he isn't
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: as good on the road four point five SIX, era
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: but this is a pitcher froendly ballpark here this month
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: two point eight NINETY, ra twenty two. Strikeouts the only
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: concern really is the ten walks this, month although he's
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: won all three of his, starts but against bad Offenses
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: colorado And San. Francisco Against seattle he has decent numbers
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: against them. Too in thirty two at, bats ten, strikeouts two,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: walks two fifty average six sixty nine oh. Ps so
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: he should be lined up to do pretty well in this.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: GAME i would think if, he you, know has any
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: motivation at. All Logan gilbert pitching For. Seattle he's been
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: one of their more trustworthy, pitchers probably their second best
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: Behind wu three Point wu is gonna need to get healthy,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: again by the, way Because wu got knocked out of
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: his last. GAME i think maybe with a concussion. SOMEHOW
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: i didn't see how that. Happened but for the mariners,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: sake they're gonna Need wu. Back But gilbert has been
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: good three point four to THREE, era one point zero THREE.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: Whip he is much better at home as they all
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: are For. Seattle two point one to three HOME era this,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: month two point ONE era and twenty four to four
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk. Ratio he is definitely in good form right,
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: now pitching. Well The dodgers are a tough lineup to.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: Face he's got fifty two at bats against some fifteen
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk ratio is not, good but
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: all eight walks Are, otani so that's pretty. Crazy Uh
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: so he is only one guy in the, lineup so
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: that makes that walk number look a little bit less.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: Bad he's allowed a two to fifty average to The
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: dodgers somewhat high eight thirty one ops though With otani
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: and Ta Oscar hernandez also having home runs off. Him uh,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah i'm gonna slightly lean into The dodgers in this,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: one but the money's coming in On. SEATTLE i would
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: only go first five inning with The, dodgers, Though seattle
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: up for minus one twenty to minus one twenty. Five
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: here sixty seven percent of tickets on The, dodgers fifty
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash coming in On, seattle. Though
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: but how often is it that you get The dodgers
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: With klasno on the mount as an underdog. Man you
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: almost never get, That so to, me it seems like
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: it is a little bit of value in the first
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: five innings at. Least so though you're probably getting a little
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: bit less of a good price going just the first five,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: minutes because obviously the odds makers know The dodgers' bullpen
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: is not, good so money is coming in Towards. Seattle,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: uh the under might be worth a looking this game as.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: Well ninety two percent tickets on the, over eighty four
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on over the total just sitting
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: at seven dropping a little bit under doesn't make. Sense
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: but if you go under full, game you do have
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: to worry about The dodgers' bullpen and that could potentially
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: blow it. Up so you could go first five innings,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: under but the problem with that, is of course you
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: have to go under a very low. Number so we'll.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: See let's go to the best bets, here, man and
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: THESE i mean these are gonna be like there are
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: games nobody's gonna care, about so it's not very. Exciting
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: but you want to just try to find angles and
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: try to win, bets, man that's the. Thing so we
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: are gonna go first five innings under In pittsburgh And.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Atlanta and if you can find it under four to
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: get a better price on, THIS i would probably do
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: that because you could probably find it about even. Money
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: but the only number THAT i saw out, there because
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: the books are trying to screw, YOU i just saw
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: under four and a half at minus one twenty. FIVE
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: i would not really pay more than that for, this
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: BUT i still like the under in the first, five,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: man SO i think it is worth a shot in this.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: ONE i don't love the bullpens, here so we're taking
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: the bullpens out of the. Equation they're both okay bullpens,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: though so if you did want to go full game,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: UNDER i wouldn't really beat you up over. It atlanta's
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers, Yesterday pittsburgh also. Four they've kind of
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: used a lot of their bullpen recently, though SO i
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: just don't trust the bullpens enough to really include them.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Here atlanta's nineteenth and bullpenny Ra pittsburgh is actually not
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: bad at, thirteen but STILL i just don't want to
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: deal with, it so we will go only in the
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: first five innings. HERE i like to starting pitching matchic
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: WHERE i think is where this is where the low
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: scoring at nature of this game is gonna. Come pittsburgh
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: is a terrible. Offense atlanta fairly weak offense right now as,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: well even THOUGH i know they got some of their guys,
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: Back BUT i think the pitching is gonna win out.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Here Bubba chandler is pitching For. Pittsburgh he was a
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: reliever for a, bit but he's a talented young pitcher
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: man From. Georgia so you, know these Young georgian pitchers
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: are pretty. Good, man not the country Of, georgia the.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: State he's got a four point five SIX, era so
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna look at that and not love,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: That but a point nine to seven whip tells a different. Story.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: Man he's not putting a lot of guys on. BASIS
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: era should be much better than, this and he's been
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: really good on the road with a point NINE era
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: on the. Road he was in the bullpen for a.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: Bit he hasn't made too many appearances. Yet he has
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: an overall twenty five to four strike a walk, ratio
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: which is very impressive for a young pitcher like. Him
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: good command numbers, there a fewer, hits the innings. Pitch
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: all of that is. Good he got blown up in
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: one starting against Milwauke in if you throw that, out
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and all of
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: his other starts and he's allowed one or zero in
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: four of his six, starts zero in three of, them
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: so that's a pretty good. Sign he is pitching well this.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: Month he has a nineteen to three strike a walk,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: ratio so HIS ra is only blown up to six
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: point six two because of that one bad start Against,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: milwaukee and he's been good. Otherwise coming off two straight
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: out he's going at least five innings in each of.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: Them allowing two or fewer hits and one or few
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: were running both of. Them no walks in thirteen strikeouts
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: in that span against The a's or a pretty good
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: lineup In washington who. Aren't but he's pitching well right.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: Now he's a solid young pitcher man And, ATLANTA i
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: mean that makes that makes it sound like he has a,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: bone or maybe he, DOES i don't. Know he gets
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: to Phase atlanta here, though And atlanta has never seen him.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: Before SO i talk about this. AGAIN i was on
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: and under in his last, game, man and that worked
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: out for us against The. A'S i think it was
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: a first five, under h it was a. Winner we're
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: doing a pretty similar thing, here, man because again he's
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: he's phasing a lineup that's not as good as The a's,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: lineup and this is another lineup that's never seen him.
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: Before so he has this extra. Edgury he's unfamiliar to
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: the opposing, hitters so that should give him an extra edge.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: Here he's going up Against Spencer, strider who is trying
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: to overcome some. Injuries. MAN i think he Had Tommy
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: john surgery as. Well everybody's getting. It his numbers are
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: not that. Good this year four point four or Five
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: yarra one point three EIGHT. Whip he's dealt with some injuries,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: whatever trying to come back from that major injury that he.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Had he used to be really good picture, Though he's
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: still got it in, HIM i think. Somewhere and he's
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: facing the worst lineup in baseball, here SO i think
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: that will help. HIM i think he wants to finish
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: the season on a strong. Note. MAN i, mean he's
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: a guy that's not used to pitching as poorly as
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: he has, been SO i do think that's gonna be
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: the case for him. HERE i know he's a little
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: bit worse at. Home four point Six oneyra is still
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: not too bad, though but he's been better this month
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: two point three FIVE. Era that's pretty. Good he's allowed
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs in five straight. Outings. Now
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: his walk number is really the only, concern although he
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: does tend to be a little bit wild even when
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: he's on twenty one strikeouts this month eleven, walks so
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rate it has increased because he only had
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: one strikeout in his first start of the, month but
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: since then he's had six or more in the last three.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: Starts that's a good. Sign the walk number is. HIGH
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: i know he needs to get that a little bit under,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: control But pittsburgh is not exactly an offense that can
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: really they could really take advantage of it to a full.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: Extent and he's done well against. HIM i know it's
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: only nineteen at, Bats he's only allowed one extra base
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: hit to, them a double from A, cutch and he
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: has ten strikeouts. Against this is a really high strikeout,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: rate even THOUGH i know it's a small. Sample two,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: walks two eleven batting average, allowed and five forty nine,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: ohps so he has been good Against pittsburgh in. General
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: SO i think we can go with. This will go
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: under in the first five innings In Pirates. Braves the
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: money seems to be agreeing with, this with fifty percent
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the under but ninety eight percent of
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: the cash on the. Under the total dropped a little
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: bit on the full game from eight and a half
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: down to, eight SO i think it makes. Sense atlanta's
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: a big favorite for what it's, worth down for minus
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: one eighty to minus one sixty, nine eighty nine percent
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: of the tickets ninety eight percent of the cash on.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: Them BUT i don't want to do anything with the side, here,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: man we're gonna go UNDER i, mean if you do
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: anything with the, SIDE i Think pittsburgh first five. Innings,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: actually potentially we're the look BECAUSE i do like the
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: way That chandler's, pitch and if he can Duel strider
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: and you can get like a plus half run, line
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: you might be able to Get there might be some
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: value in that. TOO i wouldn't want to do anything
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: with the bullpens, though but under as, How i'm gonna go.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: There and then to finish it, off we're gonna go
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: with The a's in the first five innings on the
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: money line minus one twenty uh, so of, course if
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: it's tied at that, point you will get a. PUSH
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: i know they're public eighty six percent of, tickets but
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash coming in on, them
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: SO i think the money is coming into The. A'S
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: i just don't understand The a's being that. PUBLIC i
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: think it must just be because they're hitting is better
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: Than Kansas, city's and it certainly. Is but we're taking
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: the bullpens out of the equation BECAUSE i don't want
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: to deal with The a's. Bullpen, obviously The Kansas city
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: bullpen is a lot better than The a's, bullpen so
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna not include the. Bullpens The a's are at least,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: rested BUT i don't want to deal with it. Anyway
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: they only use two relief pitchers Yesterday Kansas city used,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: four But Kansas city is still the better, bullpen so
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: we won't deal with. That will go just with the
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup. HERE i know you have to pay
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: a little more of a price than you do in
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: the full. Game of, course the odds makers know that
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: The a's have a bigger advantage in the starting pitching
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: matchup than the full game with their atrocious. Bullpens we're
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: just gonna go first five. Here The a's are able
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: to get the win yesterday Against Kansas. City Kansas city is.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: Eliminated The a's seem to be playing with a little
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: bit more motivation at this Point, Man Kansas city having
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: been more recently. ELIMINATED i think they're just kind of
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: playing out the, stretch maybe a little bit more than
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: The a's are. Here this is a difficult environment for
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: some road teams to play In, man it can affect
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: some of these pitchers here on the road that aren't
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: used to pitching in an environment like, this especially pitchers
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: that thrive in a pitcher friendly park Like Kansas, city
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: they might not do as well on the road against The.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: A's And i'm going to apply that To Michael walk
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: here for The. Royals even though he's had a pretty
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: good season FOR era and one point two to four
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: whip not. Bad he's a, VETERAN i, mean he knows
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: what he's, doing but he's been a little bit worse
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: on the road four point zero FOUR. Era he's been
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: better at home all, season but he's in really bad
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: form right. Now he has a nine point four or
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: FIVE ra this. Month he got absolutely beaten up By
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: toronto And seat on his last two out and he's
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: both at. Home so that's not a good sign either
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: because that's a pitch friendly. Park you give up thirteen
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: or in runs over that, span not. Good he's made
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: it no longer than five or two thirds innings in
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: any of his last four. Outings he's gotten out of. Form,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: man it seems like maybe he's kind of just packing
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: it in for the rest of the. Season you're a
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: nine to three strike at walk ratio this, month isn't that.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: Bad he's not really a strikeout, pitcher but he's getting knocked.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: Around he's given up twenty one hits in thirteen to
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: third innings this, month and he's allowed more than one
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: run per, inning AS i mentioned with THE, era so
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: that's pretty Bad against The. A's it's a very small
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: sample size of. Nineteen they've been able to do some
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: damage against, him though three, strikeouts two walks three sixteen
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: average seven to forty nine oh ps isn't exactly. High
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: they haven't really gotten to him for, power but this
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: is a lineup that can. HIT i think he might
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: struggle to it after this. Environment he's in bad form
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: right now in THE ace have at least seen him,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: before So i'm gonna give the edge To Luis. MORALES
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: i think he's still flying under the radar for The.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: A's he's been a solid pitcher man since since pitching
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: for The, a's WHICH i think this is his first
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: season in the three point oh SEVENTY ra one point
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: one to one whip for. Him he's made eight starts
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: in one relief. APPEARANCE i know he's been a little
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: bit worse this. Month five point oh SIXTY ra sixteen
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: to six strike a walk, ratio SO i do worry
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: about that a little, Bit but, really he had one
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: bad start against The Red, sox and other than that
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty. Solid he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: runs and all the rest of his outings he's allowed
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: two or fewer earned runs in all but those two
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: outings against The Red sox In, cincinnati WHICH i know
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: we're both recent this, month but he did bounce back
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: Against pittsburgh last time out to earn runs allowed in six,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: Innings and of course he's facing a Weak Kansas city
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: line up. Here The a's have the way better, offense
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: so that should kind of help us out through this
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: stretch as. Well here he's, made, however many starts to.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: Says in nine starts, again he's allowed two or fewer
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: earn runs and seven of them overall thirty eight to
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: sixteen strike a walk. Racio, again the walks are a
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: little bit of an, issue but he's allowed way fewer
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: hits the innings. Pitch he is pitching pretty, well and
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: of Course Kansas city has never faced, him so that's
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: kind of the crux of. This he has an unfamiliarity
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: edge here in this pitching matchup as. WELL i think
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: you should be able to do well against this. Lineup
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: they might struggle to figure him out the first couple
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: of times they faced. Him so we will go with
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: The a's in the first five innings in this, game
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: and that is going to be it for me. Today.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: Man so once, again the baseball players are the first
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: five under In Pirates. BRAVES i know it's not exciting
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: to be on these, games but you look for where
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: you think you find an edge man and The a's
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: first five money, line so they're both first. Five they're
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: both night games and my college football go watch The
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: College football show from last night to get the, analysis
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: or watch My instagram videos and you'll get most of
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: the analysis there as. WELL i think the analysis is
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit more detailed on my really really long
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: ass show, though AND i put the chapters in so
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: if you want just the analysis on the best, bets
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: you can go to the. End but if you, watch
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: like a little bit before the, END i gave out
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: some of the stronger leans AND i start the. Show
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: if you guys watch the, show you know WHAT i do.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: IT i start the show with all like the bigger.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: Matchups so if you want to hear my opinions on.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: Those it's all in that, show so go check it.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: OUT i know the game's starting less than an hour, now,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: though but we Got Kansas state minus five and a.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: HALF i know these all look, horrendous like the public
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: is not going to agree with any of my, plays
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: but that's HOW i like. It, Man iowa plus eight
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: and a, Half Oklahoma state plus twenty one. Again hopefully
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: you can get the twenty one on. THIS i think
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: probably you should be able to because the public is
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: on the other side of, it so get the best
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: number that you. CAN i would still probably even do
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: it at twenty and a, half though once you get
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: up into the, twenties the key numbers matter a little bit.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: Less and Then Florida. Atlanta hopefully you can get the
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: best number on that plus, fourteen WHICH i think you
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: should be able to get that one pretty easily as,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: Well so public against that one. Too learn a tone On,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: Twitter learn it tone On. Instagram check it all Out,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: man Better Off, dead like subscribe to the. Channel thanks
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: everybody for hanging out this, morning and as, always you
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: can find me on audio as well With Better Off, Dead, Spotify,
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Apple give me a review on there that helps me
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: out and learn a toad On, patreon patroon dot, com
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: slash learn a toad and there's bonus yuke content there
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: WHICH i also have a yuk yuktube, channel a YouTube yuke.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: Channel it's Called covered In yuke on, YouTube so you
• 1:25:08
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• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: bonus yuke content That i'm trying to keep up to.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: Date i'm close. Again that's gonna do it for. Now
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: peace out for, now. Guys let's have a good day.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: Today thanks for hanging out this. Morning