Transcript

The Last Petrov · I Believe

0:28
SPEAKER_00: Western Iraq, the Euphrates River Valley, Flat Country.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: Date palms and canals and dust of fighting gets into the action of a rifle and into the boots and lungs of the men and women who carry them.
0:41
SPEAKER_00: The enemy buried bombs in the roads, watched from rooftops, wore no uniform, walked among the living like the living until the moment he was not.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: A man drove a fuel truck and skimmed money from the sale and the money bought wire.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: The wire connected to a shell, and a different man buried the shell in the road.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: Another man watched from a rooftop, made a phone call, and the convoy passed and the world turned white.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: That was how the killing worked.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: One network against another.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: Men hunting men.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: You mapped them with sources who whispered in doorways.
1:13
SPEAKER_00: Signals pulled from the air and things that will not be spoken of here or anywhere.
1:17
SPEAKER_00: You followed the money from the fuel truck to the market to the man who sold the wire to the man who buried the shell.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: Patient work, human.
1:26
SPEAKER_00: The work of months compressed into a day that could be good or bad, depending on whether your analyst got sleep.
1:33
SPEAKER_00: The night before the mission, they got 10 minutes to call home.
1:36
SPEAKER_00: He made sure everyone else called home first, even if it was just to a friend.
1:41
SPEAKER_00: He was last.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: He had bought a cell phone for his daughter so he had someone to call.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: He didn't call her mother anymore.
1:47
SPEAKER_00: 56 months in the sandbox will do that.
1:50
SPEAKER_00: He called his daughter, told her he loved her, said something about school.
1:54
SPEAKER_00: She asked when he would call again, and he said Tuesday.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: He didn't know if he would remember what day was Tuesday, because every day here was Monday.
2:03
SPEAKER_00: But his junior squad leader would remind him.
2:06
SPEAKER_00: Next morning in the briefing room, a young Brit stood in front of them and told jokes nobody understood.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: The Queen's English.
2:13
SPEAKER_00: Accent like another language.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: He kept telling jokes.
2:16
SPEAKER_00: After a while, one man laughed, then another, then the room.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: He was there to teach them how the British system worked alongside the American ones.
2:24
SPEAKER_00: The Americans flew an airborne system over the city before patrols left, pre-detonating radio controlled bombs in the roads.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: Unpredictable times, so the enemy couldn't adapt easily.
2:36
SPEAKER_00: On the ground, both nations ran jammers that blocked the triggerman's signal.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: Three Allied systems, operating on similar frequencies in the same city.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: If they didn't know about each other, the airborne system could detonate a bomb while a patrol was on top of it.
2:51
SPEAKER_00: A jammer could block the system trying to clear the road ahead.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: The machines could not sort this out on their own.
2:57
SPEAKER_00: A man with bad jokes and good patience sorted it out in an hour.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: He said he knew when they understood his accent because they laughed at his jokes.
3:05
SPEAKER_00: Even speaking the same language did not mean you understood each other.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: Then they went out into the dust.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: The dust came in storms that lasted days.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: When the storms came, the helicopters did not fly.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: You waited, read a terrible book.
3:20
SPEAKER_00: The war went on without you because you are human and humans wait for weather.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: It did not call home.
3:26
SPEAKER_00: It had no one to lie to on Tuesday.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: It did not wait for dust, and here he was, in the middle of it.
3:32
SPEAKER_00: Another Monday.
3:36
SPEAKER_00: Welcome to I Believe, where we talk about America.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: I'm Joel Douglas, and I believe in America.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining me.
3:48
SPEAKER_01: Act one, the hard way.
3:52
SPEAKER_01: The systems helped.
3:53
SPEAKER_01: Electronic jammers on the convoys blocked radio signals that detonated the bombs.
3:58
SPEAKER_01: They worked.
3:59
SPEAKER_01: Casualties dropped.
4:00
SPEAKER_01: The Pentagon spent$13 billion and fielded 30,000 jammers.
4:05
SPEAKER_01: But the jammers also knocked out friendly communications.
4:09
SPEAKER_01: Drone pilots lost control links because the jammers didn't know the drones were there.
4:15
SPEAKER_01: The machines designed to save lives created new ways to get people killed.
4:20
SPEAKER_01: That was why the Brit was in the briefing room telling jokes.
4:24
SPEAKER_01: The machines could not sort themselves out.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: A man in a room could.
4:29
SPEAKER_01: And the enemy adapted.
4:32
SPEAKER_01: When the jammers blocked cell phone signals, he switched to pressure plates.
4:37
SPEAKER_01: When they blocked garage door openers, he switched to command wire.
4:41
SPEAKER_01: When the armor got thicker, he used explosively formed penetrators smuggled across the Iranian border that could punch through anything the Americans had.
4:51
SPEAKER_01: The bombs got cheaper, the countermeasures got more expensive.
4:55
SPEAKER_01: A$30 bomb against a$13 billion program.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: And the math never changed.
5:02
SPEAKER_01: It took four IED attacks to cause a casualty in 2004.
5:08
SPEAKER_01: By 2007, it took 20.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: That was progress.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: Lives saved.
5:14
SPEAKER_01: Mothers who answered the phone on Tuesday and heard their son's voice, but IEDs still killed more than half the Americans who died in Iraq.
5:24
SPEAKER_01: The technology improved the odds.
5:26
SPEAKER_01: It did not change the game.
5:29
SPEAKER_01: The game changed when Sunni tribesmen in Anbar decided to trust the Americans enough to support them.
5:35
SPEAKER_01: They wanted no more violence in their backyards, the awakening.
5:40
SPEAKER_01: Not a weapon system, not an algorithm.
5:43
SPEAKER_01: Men deciding to trust other men, the oldest technology in war.
5:49
SPEAKER_01: The commander knew all of this.
5:51
SPEAKER_01: The jammers, the armor, the intelligence on his screens were tools, good tools, tools that kept his people breathing, and he made sure they all called home before he did.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: But he also knew that the kid from Oklahoma driving the lead vehicle was alive, because a sergeant who hadn't slept in 30 hours looked at a route map and said that road doesn't feel right, and they took the other one.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: He knew the mission went right, because he had spent months earning trust from people who didn't owe him any.
6:24
SPEAKER_01: Today, though, his patrol was quiet.
6:31
SPEAKER_01: Just another Monday.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: That night he went to the legal meeting.
6:37
SPEAKER_00: Several times per week the commanders met with the lawyers to review the legality of orders and intent.
6:43
SPEAKER_00: Deliberate, lawyered, slow.
6:46
SPEAKER_00: When he arrived, the general's aide was talking to some senior officers.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: The aide was always talking.
6:51
SPEAKER_00: Especially when he should be silent, he was talking.
6:54
SPEAKER_00: He had heard a rumor of some new tech that would change the game.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: A machine that could map every network in the province before the morning brief.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: Process every signal, every transaction, every phone call, every movement pattern, identify the man who drives the truck and the man who sells the wire, and the man who buries the shell and the man on the rooftop with the phone.
7:14
SPEAKER_00: It prints a confidence interval on a screen while the analyst sleeps, and the sergeant finally closes his eyes.
7:21
SPEAKER_00: It can see what the sergeant felt.
7:23
SPEAKER_00: It can calculate what took months of whispers and doorways.
7:27
SPEAKER_00: Maybe someday soon, the kid from Oklahoma is driving the lead vehicle.
7:31
SPEAKER_00: The road hasn't been cleared.
7:33
SPEAKER_00: The sergeant is running on fumes.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: The source that whispers in doorways hasn't reported in three days, and the machine says the road is clear.
7:42
SPEAKER_00: 91% confidence.
7:44
SPEAKER_00: The sergeant on his best day is maybe 70%, and the sergeant is rarely on his best day.
7:50
SPEAKER_00: Would you use it?
7:51
SPEAKER_00: If you chose not to use it, what would you tell the mothers and fathers of your Marines who died?
7:56
SPEAKER_00: They sent their sons and daughters to you to protect, even if that is not the reality for some.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: Can you look a mother in the eye and tell her you had a tool that might have saved her son, and you chose not to use it?
8:08
SPEAKER_00: Every commander will make the same choice you just made.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: He will say yes because he is human.
8:12
SPEAKER_00: And that's the right answer.
8:14
SPEAKER_00: The question is what happens after.
8:22
SPEAKER_01: Act two.
8:26
SPEAKER_01: Twenty years later, the dust was gone, but it wasn't.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: It was there in the way he read threat briefings, looking for the thing that wasn't on the page.
8:36
SPEAKER_01: It was in his dreams, which he did not discuss.
8:40
SPEAKER_01: It was in his memory.
8:42
SPEAKER_01: A young sergeant who didn't come home from a road that hadn't been cleared.
8:47
SPEAKER_01: The commander was a senior officer now, a Pentagon, a program manager.
8:52
SPEAKER_01: He wore a suit some days, and a uniform others, rooms with no windows where people briefed him on capabilities he'd spent twenty years wishing he'd had.
9:03
SPEAKER_01: He remembered the aide at the legal meeting.
9:06
SPEAKER_01: Always talking.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: The rumor of a machine that would change the game.
9:12
SPEAKER_01: Twenty years ago, it was just a rumor.
9:15
SPEAKER_01: Now it was a program with a budget and a timeline, and a name he couldn't say outside the room.
9:22
SPEAKER_01: It could map every network in a province, process every signal, every transaction, every movement pattern.
9:30
SPEAKER_01: Identify every node in the kill chain from the man who drove the fuel truck to the man on the rooftop with the phone.
9:37
SPEAKER_01: It could do in seconds what had taken his analysts months.
9:41
SPEAKER_01: It could do it without sleep, without guessing.
9:45
SPEAKER_01: Without the sergeant's gut feeling, which was right 70% of the time but 30% of the time wasn't.
9:52
SPEAKER_01: He looked at it and saw every marine he'd lost.
9:56
SPEAKER_01: The kid who drove the lead vehicle on a road that hadn't been cleared, because the intelligence was twelve hours old.
10:02
SPEAKER_01: The staff sergeant on her third deployment, who didn't make it to a fourth, the names that no one in this windowless room had ever heard.
10:12
SPEAKER_01: He had spoken to every one of their mothers.
10:15
SPEAKER_01: If he'd had this tool in the Euphrates Valley, some of those names would still be breathing, and fresh in his memory something else.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: One day, he had put on his dress uniform and gone to the Senate.
10:28
SPEAKER_01: Tiny classified briefing room, fifteen people, no cameras.
10:34
SPEAKER_01: The Armed Services Committee didn't just want to hear from his program.
10:37
SPEAKER_01: They wanted to talk to his program.
10:40
SPEAKER_01: He had spent every day to that point making sure his service was ready to defeat any adversary when asked.
10:47
SPEAKER_01: The committee was talking about restraint, a less aggressive posture, statements that reflected the will of the American people, which was not always the same as the will of the warfighter.
10:59
SPEAKER_01: He had walked out of that room understanding something he hadn't understood when he walked in.
11:05
SPEAKER_01: The weapon doesn't decide its purpose.
11:08
SPEAKER_01: The people do through their representatives.
11:12
SPEAKER_01: In small rooms with no cameras, where fifteen people can tell a man in a dress uniform that the nation demands something other than what he came prepared to give.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: That was the design the military proposes, Congress disposes.
11:28
SPEAKER_01: The people, through the slow friction of representative government, determine not only whether to fight, but how.
11:37
SPEAKER_01: He thought about that.
11:39
SPEAKER_01: He thought about the small room and the Senate's quiet authority and the way the committee had changed his understanding without raising their voices.
11:48
SPEAKER_01: In the end, they had agreed to move forward with some changes.
11:52
SPEAKER_01: He looked at the screen again.
11:53
SPEAKER_01: Their names?
11:55
SPEAKER_01: He signed off on the program.
11:57
SPEAKER_01: Can you look a mother in the eye and tell her you had a tool that might have saved her son and you chose not to use it?
12:07
SPEAKER_03: It worked better than he'd imagined.
12:10
SPEAKER_03: The networks that had taken months to map in Iraq fuel trucks, wire, shell, rooftops, phones.
12:18
SPEAKER_03: The machine mapped them before breakfast.
12:21
SPEAKER_03: Commanders in the field would report near instantaneous targeting cycles.
12:26
SPEAKER_03: Fewer troops exposed on uncertain roads.
12:29
SPEAKER_03: The Intel analysts and sergeants could sleep at confidence intervals higher than human judgment had ever been.
12:37
SPEAKER_03: The Pentagon briefed Congress.
12:40
SPEAKER_03: Congress funded the next phase.
12:42
SPEAKER_03: The next phase was faster.
12:44
SPEAKER_03: More data, more integration, more automation.
12:49
SPEAKER_03: The machine learned from its success.
12:52
SPEAKER_03: Successes taught it to find more targets.
12:55
SPEAKER_03: Those targets generated more data.
13:04
SPEAKER_03: No one in the room where the commander sat knew about the legal meetings in Iraq.
13:09
SPEAKER_03: The ones that happened several times a week.
13:13
SPEAKER_03: The ones where commanders sat with lawyers and reviewed the legality of orders and intent before they killed anyone.
13:20
SPEAKER_03: They would talk about the machine in the legal meetings, but you couldn't really turn it off.
13:25
SPEAKER_03: Not when it was saving lives, not when the alternative was sending someone's son down an uncleared road.
13:32
SPEAKER_03: No one called the machine to the Senate.
13:35
SPEAKER_03: No fifteen people in a small room told the algorithm to consider a less aggressive posture.
13:41
SPEAKER_03: The machine had no dress uniform, took no oath, could not sit in a chair and listen to the people's representatives explain what the people wanted.
13:52
SPEAKER_03: By the time a committee could convene, the machine had already generated its list.
13:58
SPEAKER_03: The commander helped build the thing that would protect the next generation of kids from Oklahoma, driving lead vehicles on uncleared roads.
14:06
SPEAKER_03: He called his daughter.
14:08
SPEAKER_03: She was grown now and had kids of her own.
14:25
SPEAKER_01: In a different war in a different country, Lavender processed the communications data and social connections and movement patterns of every military-aged male in the territory.
14:36
SPEAKER_01: It assigned each a score, determined whether a man lived or died.
14:42
SPEAKER_01: 37,000 names.
14:45
SPEAKER_01: Congress had insisted on review by a person.
14:48
SPEAKER_01: So an analyst sat at a screen.
14:51
SPEAKER_01: The names came one at a time, 20 seconds to review each, 20 seconds to determine whether a father, a son, a man, asleep in his house, was a legitimate target or a civil defense worker, or a man who happened to share a name with someone the machine was looking for.
15:12
SPEAKER_01: The commander's legal meeting had taken an hour, several times a week.
15:17
SPEAKER_01: The sergeant's gut feeling, the one that said that Road doesn't feel right, took twelve years of experience to develop.
15:26
SPEAKER_01: The Brit in the briefing room took an hour to teach a room full of Americans to understand his accent.
15:34
SPEAKER_01: When Lavender's confidence was high, the analyst said yes.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: Yes, again.
15:41
SPEAKER_01: Who were they to override 91% with a feeling?
15:45
SPEAKER_01: The commander's legal meeting had reviewed every order for legality and intent.
15:51
SPEAKER_01: The Senate had called a man in a dress uniform to a small room and told him to consider restraint.
15:58
SPEAKER_01: The machine did not remember the dust so fine it gets into the action of a rifle and into the boots and lungs of the men and women who carry them.
16:07
SPEAKER_01: Lavender's analyst reviewed a name for 20 seconds and moved on.
16:15
SPEAKER_02: Interlude.
16:20
SPEAKER_02: The machine doesn't have a daughter.
16:23
SPEAKER_02: It didn't lose a marriage to 56 months of deployment, doesn't need someone to call.
16:28
SPEAKER_02: And when we hand the war to the machine, we tell ourselves we're saving our sons and daughters from the dust and the distance and the terrible cost.
16:36
SPEAKER_02: And maybe we are.
17:39
SPEAKER_01: Washington was hot the way it gets hot.
17:42
SPEAKER_01: The kind where your shirt sticks to the chair and the windows were open, but there was no wind.
17:48
SPEAKER_01: Madison sent his war message to Congress on the first of the month.
17:52
SPEAKER_01: The British were taking American sailors off American ships and forcing them to serve in the Royal Navy, arming tribes on the frontier, strangling American trade.
18:03
SPEAKER_01: He had tried diplomacy.
18:05
SPEAKER_01: Diplomacy had not worked.
18:08
SPEAKER_01: He sent the message and asked Congress to decide.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: He did not order the attack.
18:13
SPEAKER_01: He did not call it war.
18:15
SPEAKER_01: He laid out the facts and asked the representatives of the people to deliberate.
18:20
SPEAKER_01: They deliberated for 17 days in June in Washington.
18:26
SPEAKER_01: No air conditioning.
18:27
SPEAKER_01: Men in wool coats arguing about whether their young republic should fight the most powerful Navy on Earth.
18:34
SPEAKER_01: Some said yes.
18:35
SPEAKER_01: Some said no.
18:37
SPEAKER_01: Some changed their minds.
18:39
SPEAKER_01: Some changed them back.
18:41
SPEAKER_01: The House voted 79 to 49.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: The Senate voted 19 to 13.
18:48
SPEAKER_01: Six votes between war and peace, the closest declaration in American history.
18:54
SPEAKER_01: The nation went to war on a thin margin.
18:57
SPEAKER_01: They called it Mr.
18:58
SPEAKER_01: Madison's War.
18:59
SPEAKER_01: His opponents meant it as an insult.
19:02
SPEAKER_01: They blamed him for an unpopular fight.
19:05
SPEAKER_01: But the name was wrong on its own terms.
19:08
SPEAKER_01: It was not Madison's war.
19:10
SPEAKER_01: One man did not send the nation to war.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: He asked Congress to decide.
19:16
SPEAKER_01: Congress argued for 17 days in a hot room with the windows open.
19:21
SPEAKER_01: Congress voted.
19:23
SPEAKER_01: The nation sent itself to war through its representatives by a margin of six votes.
19:29
SPEAKER_01: That was not one man's war.
19:32
SPEAKER_01: That was the Republic working the way it was designed to work.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: The decision to kill and to send men to be killed was supposed to be hard.
19:42
SPEAKER_01: It was supposed to take seventeen days in a room where men sweated through their coats and changed their minds.
19:49
SPEAKER_01: The friction was the point, difficulty by design.
19:54
SPEAKER_01: Madison knew this because he built it, not alone.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: But he was the architect more than anyone.
20:02
SPEAKER_01: He had sat in another hot room in Philadelphia twenty-five years earlier and argued about how a republic should govern itself.
20:10
SPEAKER_01: The men in that room disagreed about almost everything.
20:13
SPEAKER_01: They agreed about one thing.
20:15
SPEAKER_01: The power to declare war would not belong to the president.
20:20
SPEAKER_01: It would belong to Congress, to the people's representatives, because the people who bore the cost of war should have a voice in whether war was made.
20:30
SPEAKER_01: Madison did not fight in the revolution, never carried a rifle, weighed barely a hundred pounds.
20:37
SPEAKER_01: But he understood something that the generals understood less clearly.
20:42
SPEAKER_01: The purpose of the system was not to make war easy, it was to make war a decision, a human decision, made by humans who would answer to other humans for the consequences.
20:55
SPEAKER_01: Seventeen days, six votes.
20:58
SPEAKER_01: A nation argued itself into a war it was not ready to fight, and fought it badly, and nearly lost its capital, and the president's house burned, and none of that meant the system had failed.
21:10
SPEAKER_01: It meant the system was working.
21:12
SPEAKER_01: The people deliberated.
21:14
SPEAKER_01: The people decided.
21:16
SPEAKER_01: The people bore the consequence.
21:19
SPEAKER_01: That was the design.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: A machine assigns a score, calculates confidence.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: Where are the 17 days?
21:28
SPEAKER_00: An algorithm processes data faster than any human can read it.
21:32
SPEAKER_00: Targets die.
21:33
SPEAKER_00: Where's the hot room?
21:34
SPEAKER_00: Where's the argument?
21:35
SPEAKER_00: A system generates 37,000 names.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: An analyst reviews each one for 20 seconds.
21:41
SPEAKER_00: Where's the vote?
21:42
SPEAKER_00: Where's the thin margin?
21:44
SPEAKER_00: Commanders in Iraq sat with lawyers several times a week and reviewed every order for legality and intent.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: Those were their 17 days, compressed into hours, but still real, human, deliberate.
21:57
SPEAKER_00: The commander at the Pentagon put on his dress uniform and went to the Senate, and the Senate told him to consider restraint.
22:04
SPEAKER_00: That was the design working at the national level.
22:07
SPEAKER_00: The weapon came to the chamber, and the chamber told the weapon what the people required.
22:12
SPEAKER_00: Lavender did not go to the Senate, had no dress uniform, took no oath, generated its list at a speed that made deliberation irrelevant.
22:21
SPEAKER_00: It's not illegal or unconstitutional, just faster than the system that was supposed to govern it.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: Madison built a system that required the nation to argue before it killed.
22:31
SPEAKER_00: The most difficult decision a republic can make, made as difficult as he could make it.
22:37
SPEAKER_00: Every commander will choose to use the machine.
22:39
SPEAKER_00: It's the right choice for every one of them.
22:42
SPEAKER_00: The tragedy is what happens to the institution when every commander makes that choice.
22:47
SPEAKER_00: The machine won't argue or vote.
22:50
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't sweat through its coat or change its mind or look across the aisle at a man who disagrees and decide he might be right.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: We still have the room where the nation was supposed to argue.
23:01
SPEAKER_00: Chairs in rows, microphones work, an empty room, doors open.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: The machine will decide before the room can convene.