Latest / Market Pulse / Consumer Wealth Trends: What Financial Marketers Need to Know

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Consumer Wealth Trends: What Financial Marketers Need to Know · Market Pulse

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Market Pulse podcast from Equifax. I'm your host,
• 0:04
  Tom O'Neill, senior advisor with Equifax,
• 0:07
  where we look out onto the macroeconomic and credit environments to see how they
• 0:11
  impact financial institutions and American households.
• 0:15
  We focus on helping clients navigate economic uncertainty while identifying
• 0:20
  opportunities for growth in the consumer credit space.
• 0:23
  I'm thrilled to be joined today by Ian Wright, chief Strategy Officer for IXI.
• 0:28
  As leader of the IXI network,
• 0:30
  Ian leverages data on more than $30 trillion worth of consumer deposits and
• 0:35
  investments to help financial services to help financial service
• 0:40
  marketers with their most challenging needs.
• 0:43
  Today we're gonna be discussing trends in wealth post COVID and how those
• 0:47
  differing trends impact consumers and what financial institutions need to know
• 0:52
  about it. But before we get started,
• 0:54
  let's get a quick economic update from our friends at Moody's. Analytics.
• 0:58
  Trade deals are all the rage right now as the Trump administration's August 1st
• 1:02
  tariff deadline looms.
• 1:04
  Several agreements have been struck in the lead up to the deadline,
• 1:07
  including with Japan and the European Union,
• 1:10
  which will each face a 15% import tax and pay no tariff on US
• 1:15
  exports heightened uncertainty from US.
• 1:17
  Trade policy has weighed on hiring and production,
• 1:21
  but cemented trade agreements will clear the fog going forward within the US.
• 1:25
  Price pressures from higher tariffs have been muted so far,
• 1:29
  but are starting to emerge.
• 1:31
  The consumer price index rose 0.3% in June,
• 1:34
  bringing the year ago rate to 2.7%,
• 1:37
  which is up from 2.4% in the previous month, core CPI,
• 1:41
  which excludes food and energy rose 0.2%,
• 1:44
  and the annual rate increase from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in
• 1:49
  June. Now,
• 1:50
  some of the increase in the annual inflation numbers in June were due to
• 1:54
  unfavorable base effects, as inflation was soft at this point last year.
• 1:59
  But certain tariff sensitive goods, like household appliances, for instance,
• 2:03
  showed a meaningful increase in prices as results of firms
• 2:08
  passing down higher costs from import taxes to consumers.
• 2:14
  Now, tariffs are altering consumer behavior.
• 2:16
  Many consumers front loaded purchases earlier in the year to get ahead of
• 2:20
  expected tariff increases as sales then plummeted in May as tariffs rose and
• 2:25
  forward buying ended before partially rebounding in June. But nonetheless,
• 2:30
  retail sales are only a touch above December levels in the aggregate.
• 2:34
  As consumers feel the force, the tariff induced price increases,
• 2:39
  they will pull back on spending even more.
• 2:42
  There is pressure on the Fed to start easing monetary policy,
• 2:45
  but with inflation proving stubborn,
• 2:47
  there appears to be little appetite to cut rates.
• 2:50
  The Fed has to strike a balance between stable prices and maximum employment,
• 2:54
  both of which can be simultaneously undermined by tariffs. However,
• 2:59
  since tariffs generally represent a one-time price shock,
• 3:03
  it seems likely that the Fed will prioritize the labor market as growth slows.
• 3:07
  Therefore,
• 3:08
  we anticipate 2 25 basis point cuts this year in September and
• 3:13
  December.
• 3:14
  Thank you, Moody's. So, Ian, welcome. Thank you for joining us today.
• 3:19
  Thank you. Great to be here. Tom, always great to have a conversation with you.
• 3:22
  Yeah, I always enjoy our conversations and, but this one's being recorded,
• 3:26
  so we have to watch what we say . I wanted to start off by,
• 3:31
  by bringing up the, the wealth trends reports that,
• 3:36
  that Equifax is just releasing based upon the IXI data that
• 3:41
  I mentioned in the, the intro.
• 3:43
  And that report highlights pretty significant wealth growth since the
• 3:48
  2008 recession. It's the,
• 3:50
  the growth has actually reached 66 trillion, you know, by, you know,
• 3:54
  by the middle of last year, I think it was. What really are the,
• 3:58
  the primary drivers of that growth?
• 4:00
  Yeah, it's been a, a fantastic decade and a half for consumers,
• 4:04
  but as we'll see,
• 4:05
  maybe that's been a little uneven depending upon who you are and where your
• 4:09
  economic and financial capabilities exist.
• 4:12
  But it's really been the stock market that has been fueling wealth especially
• 4:16
  post COVID. Just between 2001 and two thou, sorry,
• 4:21
  2021 and 2026 total
• 4:25
  consumer assets went up by $6 trillion. So six of that six,
• 4:30
  $6 trillion million occurred just in the last five years.
• 4:33
  So about 9% growth even just recently.
• 4:38
  Wow. That's, and, and obviously since it's, since so much of that has,
• 4:43
  has happened within the, the stock market,
• 4:47
  I would imagine that it hasn't quite benefited all households, you know,
• 4:52
  equally across that can you give a, I know we,
• 4:55
  we can certainly go really deep into this conversation and,
• 4:58
  and probably will but what, what,
• 5:02
  what are the different segments that have been influenced differently by this,
• 5:07
  this growth and wealth?
• 5:09
  The growth has been interesting, as you said.
• 5:11
  So I looked at where were consumers in 2021 and and where were they
• 5:16
  In 2024,
• 5:18
  I saw what I call the typical consumer household looking at the median household
• 5:23
  using medians instead of means or averages.
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  So we don't have those very wealthy people kind of pulling up and skewing the
• 5:31
  picture a bit.
• 5:32
  But even though wealth increased by five or $6 trillion during that period,
• 5:37
  the median value,
• 5:38
  the median household value for wealth actually decreased to $66,000.
• 5:43
  Investments went down by 12%. Deposits stayed about even.
• 5:48
  So then you kind of have this conundrum, right, well,
• 5:50
  how did wealth increase overall mm-hmm .
• 5:53
  But then how did the typical consumer
• 5:56
  actually be worse off during that experience? And it's, as you said,
• 6:01
  the growth hasn't been even we look at consumer wealth in
• 6:06
  three different tiers. If you look at the middle tier,
• 6:09
  which is the mass affluent,
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  they have a hundred thousand dollars to a million dollars in total deposits and
• 6:15
  investments.
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  That segment consists of about 44 million households,
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  and it reduced by about 4%,
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  both in the number of households that are in the segment and also by the
• 6:28
  number of assets that it controls. Now, where did those households go?
• 6:33
  Most of them went down to what we call the mass market,
• 6:35
  which have less than a hundred thousand dollars. Wow. That segment,
• 6:39
  which is about 75 million households,
• 6:42
  actually increased by 7% in household counts,
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  but only 1% actually in assets.
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  So we see that middle tier actually going down,
• 6:52
  but not contributing to the wealth when it did go down in wealth.
• 6:56
  On the other end of the spectrum is we do have a good story,
• 6:59
  and this is where the growth does occur,
• 7:02
  and that's with the affluent households.
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  If you're someone who has a million dollars,
• 7:07
  your wealth probably grew over that five year, or I'm sorry,
• 7:10
  that four year period. In fact,
• 7:12
  the 14 million households that they're in that segment they grew their assets by
• 7:18
  17%. So when we're talking about growth,
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  we're really looking at that sliver of households in the us right.
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  And they hold nearly three quarters of all the wealth.
• 7:29
  It's, it's interest, what you're describing people,
• 7:32
  a a large movement moving out of the, the middle tier,
• 7:37
  essentially a lot moving down. I would imagine some moving up into the,
• 7:41
  and that middle tier, the, the mass affluent,
• 7:44
  you essentially shrieking shrinking over that time period.
• 7:47
  It's fascinating because that's exactly what we've seen in the credit side
• 7:52
  of, of the, the world as well, obviously here at Equifax. You know, we,
• 7:56
  we have a ton of, of credit data that we're constantly sifting through and,
• 8:00
  and looking for, for meaning within.
• 8:03
  And we've seen a lot of that same type of,
• 8:07
  of circumstance. You know, we've, we've been referencing the K shaped
• 8:12
  for probably the, the same four or five years that, that you're talking about.
• 8:17
  And we, we reference it both in terms of economic terms as well as credit terms.
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  And essentially what that is, it's,
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  it's as simple as it sounds, you know, envision a k you know, you've got,
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  you know, a k with a, you know, perpendicular line,
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  and then you've got one, you know,
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  line shooting upwards and one line shooting downwards. It's as,
• 8:40
  as simple a visualization as that. And it, it represents that,
• 8:44
  that that trend of a lot of households,
• 8:48
  a lot of consumers thriving, doing just fine. Thank you very much.
• 8:53
  And then others that are, that are truly struggling,
• 8:57
  and certainly that's, that's always the case, you know, from the dawn of time,
• 9:01
  that's always been the case where you have your haves, your have nots.
• 9:04
  What's particularly interesting over the last few years is how much that gap
• 9:08
  between those populations has grown.
• 9:11
  You, you mentioned.
• 9:12
  You, you mentioned the, the, the differences in terms of wealth growth.
• 9:16
  We see it in terms of things as simple as credit scores. Mm-Hmm .
• 9:20
  You know, we have a lot of people that were in those mid-tier credit scores.
• 9:24
  Some of them certainly have moved up over the last years, a few years.
• 9:28
  A lot of them have moved down and, and fewer left in the middle.
• 9:32
  It's a very interesting phenomenon that we're, we're seeing.
• 9:35
  Yeah. I, I term now, since we're a couple years past COVID,
• 9:39
  I'm starting to use the barbell effect, right?
• 9:41
  And that's another term a lot of virtual services folks use, but it's true.
• 9:44
  You're seeing the middle kind of disappear and you're either unfortunately
• 9:48
  moving down or you're being able to benefit and move up either in wealth or it
• 9:52
  sounds also like in your credit behavior as well.
• 9:55
  So, Ian, you, you spoke of, of investments, you know,
• 9:59
  clearly being a fueling factor of, of this, this growth that we've seen in,
• 10:03
  in wealth over the last few years.
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  How has that also compared to to deposits
• 10:10
  to CDs and other forms of, of wealth that,
• 10:13
  that our financial institution lenders you know, are, are looking at these days?
• 10:18
  Yeah, if we, if we stick to just liquid investments, so those are, I'm sorry,
• 10:22
  liquid assets. So those are assets that I can turn into money very easily.
• 10:26
  So it would be a deposit account or an investment account, right?
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  It's also what a financial services marketer could try to target and bring into
• 10:34
  their own institution.
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  We've actually seen deposits remain somewhat flat over that same time period,
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  that three to four year time period and actually went down by a trillion
• 10:45
  dollars. So it was that 15 trillion,
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  we estimated down to 14 trillion as of the summer of last year.
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  So really all the growth came from the investments.
• 10:56
  And that's true across the board,
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  but particularly in the stock market and that's owning stock directly.
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  And again, when you think about who owns stock,
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  even though it's been democratized really across different households in
• 11:11
  the US where everyone has more stock ownership,
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  we still see the majority of stock ownership at those higher levels of wealth.
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  It's also true through ETFs and mutual funds too. So in my portfolio,
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  if I'm mainly investing in stocks, I'm gonna experience some of that growth,
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  but it's maybe gonna be a little bit diluted if instead if I was just directly
• 11:33
  investing in stocks. Also,
• 11:36
  interesting that in the last several years we've seen bonds come back as well.
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  Bonds have increased in value and they've contributed probably about probably
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  about a third of,
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  of what we've seen in the growth outside of that majority of the stock market.
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  So it's definitely been investments, but not only stocks, mainly stocks,
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  but we did also see those bond levels increase as well.
• 11:59
  Ian, we, we spoke about how this growth in wealth has certainly not
• 12:04
  been even, you know,
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  distributed evenly across all populations.
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  How have you seen this impact across, say, different age tiers, you know,
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  retirees versus Gen Zs and, and, and younger consumers? Has,
• 12:19
  have there been any developing, you know,
• 12:21
  trends that are noticeable within those demographics?
• 12:24
  Definitely, definitely.
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  And you could probably imagine that folks who are maybe more advanced in age
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  have had the time to build up in wealth, and that's always been the case,
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  but it's even more so the case now. Not only the, the most recent 10,
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  15 years,
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  really the last 2030 years consumers who were able to invest in the stock
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  market, even at different levels,
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  were able to really derive up their overall wealth and move into those
• 12:50
  affluent segments that we talked about earlier.
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  We have a segment we call the retirees.
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  You could probably guess they're at least 65 years old.
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  Why they comprise about a third of the us,
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  34% of households they own or command 44% of all the assets.
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  So they are an incredibly important segment for financial services marketers to
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  capture not only today,
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  but one of the biggest questions in financial services is this impending
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  transfer of wealth that's over the horizon. When the retirees move on,
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  they're gonna leave their wealth to their families.
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  They're gonna leave it at different inheritance options.
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  So financial services marketers are then trying to look at, well,
• 13:32
  who's gonna maybe move into wealth who aren't in wealth today?
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  And we see a lot of the Gen X families spread across those wealth segments I
• 13:42
  talked about, but they're in that age span that in the not too distant future,
• 13:46
  and then also maybe in a little bit longer they're gonna inherit their wealth.
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  So they might not have the largest amount of wealth today,
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  about 27% of assets, but once they inherit wealth,
• 13:59
  they're gonna really move to the forefront of being the wealthiest segment.
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  You also mentioned the Gen Z segment.
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  They really haven't had enough time to develop their wealth.
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  The investing they can do hasn't been benefited by compounding
• 14:15
  which is one of the most powerful laws, right? There are some households though,
• 14:20
  that have been able to communicate that wealth. It's a very small number.
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  There are less than 400,000 households that are in the Gen Z segment
• 14:27
  that have at least a million dollars. So they're very hard to find.
• 14:32
  If you can find them, they're fantastic customers, right?
• 14:35
  Because the overall opportunity to have a customer lifetime value that's
• 14:39
  high is incredible with that household. 'cause You'll have them for 40, 50,
• 14:44
  60 years. Right.
• 14:46
  Right. It's interesting noticing, again,
• 14:50
  the similarities between what we're seeing within wealth trends and what we've
• 14:54
  also been seeing within, within credit trends and how
• 14:59
  just the factor of age, you know, is, is such a, a, a noticeable trait,
• 15:03
  you know, when, when sort of predicting how different, you know,
• 15:07
  populations or households might
• 15:11
  might have benefited or not benefited over the last few years
• 15:16
  using those, those age demographics as,
• 15:21
  as an example within the credit trends, you know, field for example,
• 15:24
  we've seen how
• 15:28
  within s the same income tiers as well as
• 15:33
  the same risk tiers,
• 15:36
  age is such a huge distinction between how well different populations,
• 15:41
  different households and consumers have weathered the financial storms over the
• 15:45
  last few years. Because of what you mentioned earlier. You know, the,
• 15:49
  the younger generations simply haven't had the time to build up those assets to
• 15:54
  let you know investments compound over time and, and,
• 15:58
  and have a financial rock to fall back on when,
• 16:03
  when times get tough.
• 16:06
  So it's been been interesting to see that within those
• 16:11
  same tiers everything else being, being similar,
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  just knowing that,
• 16:16
  that someone hasn't had as much time within their financial lives to build up
• 16:20
  those assets can be a, a predictor. So like you say,
• 16:24
  if you can find those, hang onto 'em. Yeah. Grab 'em and, and,
• 16:28
  and hold on.
• 16:29
  Yeah. Give them your promotional rates,
• 16:31
  give them your top tier customer service,
• 16:33
  make sure their needs are met and anticipate their needs as well.
• 16:37
  Absolutely. Now, how, how about you know, age is certainly an interesting one.
• 16:41
  How about geography? Anything that's,
• 16:43
  that we see on a geographic basis on a state level or, or, you know,
• 16:48
  a broader territory level that's that you, you can pull out?
• 16:52
  Yeah, definitely. If, if you do talk to financial service marketers and you say,
• 16:56
  well, what are your biggest markets?
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  Everyone's probably gonna say the big five states California, Florida, Illinois,
• 17:02
  New York, and Texas. And those are still the biggest markets overall.
• 17:07
  If you're introducing branches somewhere,
• 17:09
  or if you're doing some new advertising for market acquisitions,
• 17:12
  those are still gonna be your largest markets. But if you're looking for, well,
• 17:17
  where are concentrations maybe of the most affluent households or,
• 17:22
  or households where the median assets is higher?
• 17:24
  It's interesting that New England starts to actually appear more often than not.
• 17:30
  We find that Connecticut,
• 17:31
  Massachusetts New Hampshire and then New Jersey and New Jersey would include
• 17:38
  we're seeing from some wealth going out of New York into the suburbs of New
• 17:41
  Jersey. And then Hawaii have the, the highest assets.
• 17:45
  So each one of those states on their own might not be the biggest market in
• 17:49
  terms of volume of the number of households,
• 17:52
  but if you're looking to increase your average account balances,
• 17:56
  those are some areas you definitely wanna make sure that you have a presence in.
• 18:01
  Right. And then if you wanna take it down to another level,
• 18:03
  say let's look at some cities and as I mentioned earlier,
• 18:06
  we'll look at cities from the census definition.
• 18:09
  So what's known as the core based statistical area or CBSA
• 18:14
  where you're seeing the largest affluent growth is New York,
• 18:17
  Chicago la and then also Dallas.
• 18:21
  We do have then maybe about four cities.
• 18:23
  There are about the same beyond that in terms of growth,
• 18:26
  but growth is happening. And it might be in some areas that you suspect,
• 18:30
  you hear taxes getting bigger. You hear that, you know,
• 18:34
  the New York suburbs is where maybe some of that Manhattan money is going to.
• 18:39
  But I was interested to see that LA is still in that list when at least
• 18:43
  anecdotally people say wealth is fleeing from California. Right?
• 18:47
  You're not necessarily seeing that the case in at a level that would make
• 18:52
  a dent in California being an attractive market.
• 18:55
  It's just so large that it still makes sense for any financial services marketer
• 19:00
  to try to target consumers in that state.
• 19:04
  Interesting. Okay. So, so then let me put you on the spot then. You know, ah,
• 19:08
  if we are going to then go ahead and say, all right,
• 19:11
  we want to target Los Angeles, we want to target, you know, the young affluent,
• 19:16
  we want to, you know, we want to target something,
• 19:20
  how does one go about doing that?
• 19:23
  Where should marketers be focusing their efforts on capturing, you know,
• 19:27
  whatever targets, you know, make sense for them to, to define?
• 19:31
  Hmm, great question. I like to look at it from a three-step process. First,
• 19:35
  what is the geographic market that presents me with the most opportunity?
• 19:40
  And this would be true if I have brick and mortar locations,
• 19:43
  or even if I'm a digital bank,
• 19:44
  because I'm still gonna wanna inform my advertising with a different designated
• 19:49
  marketed area or DMA that I wanna focus that marketing on as well
• 19:54
  as my digital and online advertising to see which zip codes
• 20:00
  I'm looking for when I wanna bid on an ad.
• 20:03
  So I would start with that looking geographically where I want to focus.
• 20:07
  And as I mentioned, California's a great state still to focus on.
• 20:11
  And then further, if I wanna look at a metropolitan area, as I said,
• 20:14
  Los Angeles is a great area. San Francisco still has significant wealth,
• 20:19
  and if you include down in the Silicon Valley area,
• 20:22
  you've got great opportunity there.
• 20:24
  But then what I would wanna do is understand which households in those
• 20:28
  geographies are really the drivers that are pushing those numbers up and making
• 20:32
  it a attractive market that I wanna make sure that I can win.
• 20:36
  And that's where we can help understand what is a total a household's total
• 20:41
  wealth,
• 20:41
  and also what their deposits versus their investment breakdown looks like.
• 20:46
  So you can understand if this is a household that if I've got a high yield
• 20:50
  savings account or a CD that I wanna offer promotional rate on,
• 20:54
  they can not only open an account, not only fund it,
• 20:57
  but they can fund it with a significant amount of money.
• 21:00
  So I get a return on my advertising right away.
• 21:03
  And then the third step though, would, would,
• 21:05
  would be to understand what sort of messages are going to resonate with these
• 21:09
  households. And that's where tried and true segmentation can help,
• 21:14
  or what I talked about before might be a little bit more of the quantitative,
• 21:16
  the hard numbers of where is the opportunity Segmentation helps with the
• 21:20
  qualitative. Okay,
• 21:22
  once I know I wanna advertise to these people what's the sort of
• 21:26
  messaging that I should focus on? What should resonate with them?
• 21:30
  Maybe where are they in their life stage?
• 21:32
  So maybe their needs are gonna be different in this part of Los Angeles versus
• 21:36
  another part of Los Angeles. You put those three steps together and you,
• 21:41
  you pretty much have the best way that you can attack any market.
• 21:45
  Interesting. So you're not just getting to the identification, the, the what,
• 21:50
  you know. Yeah. But then drilling down very importantly into the how, like,
• 21:55
  okay, everyone's gonna be trying to, to hit these populations.
• 22:00
  How do I distinguish myself?
• 22:01
  How do I tailor my message to what they are most receptive to?
• 22:05
  Correct, correct. And,
• 22:07
  and even sometimes I don't need to know that it's the O'Neill household that I
• 22:10
  want to target. I just know that there are households in the,
• 22:13
  where the O'Neill household resides that I want to target.
• 22:17
  So there's a big sort of back and forth and understanding someone's identity
• 22:22
  and resolving a message to someone's actual identity, which is fantastic,
• 22:26
  but it shouldn't hinder any of your efforts.
• 22:29
  Awesome. This has been very interesting,
• 22:33
  and I appreciate your time.
• 22:35
  Before I wrap up here I do want to sort of do the,
• 22:40
  do the proverbial 30,000 foot question, open it up and say,
• 22:45
  as you look out, you know, we're, we're halfway through 20, 25. Now,
• 22:49
  as you look out, you know, for the rest of the year, and,
• 22:52
  and I'll even let you go into 2026 if you desire,
• 22:56
  what do you see in store? You know, are are we gonna see continued growth?
• 23:00
  Are we,
• 23:01
  are we expecting what we've been seeing over the last few years to,
• 23:06
  to continue? What do you think?
• 23:08
  I think so with some caveats with the new administration and that
• 23:13
  are willing to take,
• 23:14
  I guess you could say more bold or more significant efforts it's difficult
• 23:19
  to maybe chart or plot a progress that's gonna be an even line.
• 23:25
  We might see more dips in valleys and mountains occurring on the deposit
• 23:30
  side. So if you're in banking or your credit union,
• 23:33
  I think we're gonna see deposits stay somewhat flat, unfortunately,
• 23:38
  and we're still gonna have that hunt for deposits,
• 23:40
  which everyone has been trying to attract more deposits over the last three
• 23:45
  years. There is some fatigue that's set in. Fortunately,
• 23:48
  I think that's gonna continue for the next year or so where you're gonna have to
• 23:53
  offer some very attractive rates for people to decide to change their existing
• 23:57
  relationships and bring more deposits over. On the investment side, though,
• 24:01
  that has been the engine, right? The stock market,
• 24:04
  we did have a dip in the stock market earlier this year,
• 24:08
  but it's come back and we're up year to date.
• 24:11
  And if this sort of progress and expectation occurs and continues to occur,
• 24:16
  I think we'll still see growth. Maybe not at the same level that we had before,
• 24:20
  but we'll still see growth in the future. However,
• 24:23
  all bets are off if there are significant policy changes by the existing
• 24:28
  administration. Right.
• 24:29
  Yeah, I'll be interested to see, I think not just myself,
• 24:32
  everyone is going to be interested to see that as well as, right,
• 24:35
  not just the answer to will there be more growth, but where, you know, yeah.
• 24:40
  Are we going to see a continued spread of the, of the k,
• 24:45
  you know, gap or, you know, will things be a little bit more evenly distributed?
• 24:50
  Ian, as always, it's a pleasure talking with you and, and,
• 24:54
  and having you share your insights.
• 24:56
  If our listeners would like to reach out to you, how can they find you, Ian?
• 25:00
  Yeah, so best way to reach out to me is through email.
• 25:04
  My email address is ian dot wright IAN dot
• 25:11
  W-R-I-G-H t@equifax.com. And I'd love to hear from folks.
• 25:14
  Awesome. Thank you again, Ian. And to our listeners,
• 25:18
  I hope you enjoyed today's topic. If you have any questions,
• 25:21
  you can certainly reach out to us,
• 25:22
  especially if you have ideas for a future podcast. Reach out to us at Risk
• 25:30
  advisors@equifax.com. We look forward to hearing from you. Thank you.