Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 543: Week 1 Betting Preview
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, what's your favorite time
- 0:04Speaker 1: of week? You download the crazy sheet and you get
- 0:07Speaker 1: ready to talk some college football with Mark and Scott.
- 0:09Speaker 1: I'm here in the podcasting studio. Scott's at home. Brother,
- 0:12Speaker 1: how the hell are you?
- 0:14Speaker 2: Man, I'm good. Fun week last week. I heard our
- 0:16Speaker 2: podcast didn't get up. That sucks.
- 0:19Speaker 1: I had some technical difficulties.
- 0:21Speaker 2: I had a good week. I went 3-1 last week.
- 0:24Speaker 2: And the only reason I didn't go 4-1 is because
- 0:27Speaker 2: I dicked around and forgot to bet Eastern Michigan. Although
- 0:32Speaker 2: they looked awful, I'd have been sweating it. But there
- 0:36Speaker 2: are a couple of games I watched last week that
- 0:37Speaker 2: I guarantee you it was me and eight people. The
- 0:43Speaker 2: only people that were watching some of those games are
- 0:46Speaker 2: just complete degenerates like me.
- 0:49Speaker 1: Oh, man.
- 0:51Speaker 2: Mark, I want to tell you something. The most oversold game,
- 0:53Speaker 2: we're going to be able to make some money on
- 0:54Speaker 2: North Dakota State, betting against North Dakota State, I should say.
- 0:59Speaker 2: this season. That game is so overhyped. I have listened
- 1:02Speaker 2: to people talk about how great they looked. First off,
- 1:04Speaker 2: Jacksonville State should have kicked a field goal. And they
- 1:07Speaker 2: tied the ball game 10-10. And they probably don't give
- 1:10Speaker 2: up that touchdown. But the biggest play of the game
- 1:13Speaker 2: was the score right before the halftime when their safety
- 1:16Speaker 2: should have knocked about four teeth out of that guy's mouth. Instead,
- 1:21Speaker 2: he went for the ball that he had no chance at.
- 1:24Speaker 2: I still can't figure out what he was thinking. I
- 1:27Speaker 2: would have knocked that guy into next week i mean
- 1:31Speaker 2: he would not have known what he would have been
- 1:33Speaker 2: in concussion protocol this week and there is no chance
- 1:39Speaker 2: that ball game ends at the score it did that
- 1:42Speaker 2: totally took the wind out of their sails and it
- 1:44Speaker 2: was just stupidity on jacksonville states that's going to overvalue
- 1:48Speaker 2: north dakota state going forward the rest of the year
- 1:50Speaker 2: and that team is meh.
- 1:54Speaker 1: I don't know that the– I think they're going to
- 1:56Speaker 1: beat some folks. I really do. I think they're going to.
- 1:58Speaker 2: Beat some folks because they're well-coached. They're disciplined. They do
- 2:00Speaker 2: some really good– so the whole reason they beat Jacksonville State,
- 2:02Speaker 2: they're significantly more disciplined, you know, no doubt about it.
- 2:06Speaker 2: They are– North Dakota State, they're teams that win championships.
- 2:09Speaker 2: They are not super talented. And even though they play
- 2:11Speaker 2: in the Mountain West, they're going to play some teams
- 2:13Speaker 2: that are simply better than they are. And that's– I
- 2:16Speaker 2: really do believe that.
- 2:18Speaker 1: Yeah, I would completely agree with you. I think they're
- 2:21Speaker 1: going to be a fun watch. They're going to be
- 2:23Speaker 1: a fun watch. The reason I say we're.
- 2:26Speaker 2: Going to be able to win some money on them,
- 2:27Speaker 2: I don't think they're fixed to go 4-8 or anything.
- 2:29Speaker 2: I mean, hell, they might go 9-3 in that. They're 10-2.
- 2:34Speaker 2: I'm not saying they're a bad football team. I'm just
- 2:36Speaker 2: saying that their lines are going to be overvalued early.
- 2:39Speaker 2: People are going to be thinking they're going to go
- 2:41Speaker 2: pound people and all that, and I think some of
- 2:43Speaker 2: these games are going to be a lot closer than
- 2:45Speaker 2: they think.
- 2:46Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I completely agree with you on that front.
- 2:50Speaker 1: Looking at it, Scott, we go into week zero, a
- 2:52Speaker 1: lot of bad football, a lot of bad football that
- 2:55Speaker 1: you got there. But there were some data points that
- 2:57Speaker 1: you can take away from that. USC, I mean, you
- 3:00Speaker 1: know I've always been a– I've loved USC for like
- 3:03Speaker 1: as long as I can remember. I have no idea
- 3:05Speaker 1: why I like this team.
- 3:06Speaker 2: College football is better when they're good. That's why you
- 3:08Speaker 2: like them.
- 3:09Speaker 1: I think you're right. I mean, I like the Crimson.
- 3:12Speaker 1: I love the fact that they came out, completely dominated
- 3:15Speaker 1: the game. played 18 true freshmen, started five true freshmen,
- 3:20Speaker 1: and the only takeaway that the media had from that
- 3:22Speaker 1: was is that people didn't go to the game.
- 3:25Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 3:26Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 3:26Speaker 2: They were up 28 and that was one of my wins,
- 3:29Speaker 2: first half on them. Yeah. I thought they looked pretty good.
- 3:35Speaker 2: I guess it was their second possession I was disappointed in,
- 3:38Speaker 2: and then their second possession in the second quarter was
- 3:40Speaker 2: kind of meh. I think it was that drive. Other
- 3:44Speaker 2: than that, I thought they were really good. I think
- 3:48Speaker 2: this team's talented. I think if SC boosters aren't stupid,
- 3:53Speaker 2: because I think Lee and Riley's figured out what I
- 3:55Speaker 2: need to do. There's nobody out here on the West
- 3:57Speaker 2: Coast that'll put any money into anything except Oregon. And
- 4:02Speaker 2: we can dominate LA if we'll just get off of it.
- 4:05Speaker 2: And even though Chesney's at UCLA, they're a mess. I mean,
- 4:08Speaker 2: they just fired their AD. How would you like to
- 4:09Speaker 2: be a new football coach and your AD that got fired?
- 4:12Speaker 2: You hadn't even played your first football game. They hired you.
- 4:14Speaker 2: You know, just a brutal, brutal spot. They're a mess.
- 4:19Speaker 2: I think he is dominating recruiting. He put together a
- 4:22Speaker 2: great recruiting class of high school kids last year. He's
- 4:25Speaker 2: in the process of doing it again this year and
- 4:27Speaker 2: putting together a pretty good 2020, what would be 2028
- 4:31Speaker 2: class as well. So already got a quarterback committed in
- 4:35Speaker 2: that class. So you go back and look, and this is,
- 4:38Speaker 2: I think Riley's figuring it out. Hey, I can get
- 4:41Speaker 2: kids to transfer in on the guys I miss on.
- 4:44Speaker 2: And I'm telling you the best teams, that's the case.
- 4:48Speaker 2: Mark my words, we're going to see you at Ohio
- 4:50Speaker 2: State if they keep recruiting like they've recruited a little bit.
- 4:55Speaker 2: Because you go look at this roster, it is not
- 4:58Speaker 2: full of the position one, position two, you know, the strengths.
- 5:03Speaker 2: Chris Henry's the only kid they brought in who I
- 5:05Speaker 2: think was the one or like a one or two
- 5:07Speaker 2: at their position that I could find. And I'm going
- 5:11Speaker 2: to tell you, that's unusual. Go look at Oregon. Man,
- 5:13Speaker 2: I littered with top five guys all over that recruiting class.
- 5:17Speaker 2: That pays off later because, again, you can go select guys.
- 5:20Speaker 2: I don't think you build. The Kirk Cignetti's are few
- 5:24Speaker 2: and far between that can go just build their roster
- 5:26Speaker 2: and build continuity and build a football team out of
- 5:29Speaker 2: the portal. Man, that is a special, special circumstance. You
- 5:33Speaker 2: better be selecting guys. And I think that's going to
- 5:36Speaker 2: pay off for on the long run for both of
- 5:38Speaker 2: those teams. So it was better than I think everybody thought.
- 5:42Speaker 1: So. and I'll tell you this on Cignetti and then
- 5:44Speaker 1: we can dive into week one now that we've got
- 5:46Speaker 1: actual football is, you know, Cignetti, the one, the biggest
- 5:50Speaker 1: takeaway I've gotten from him since he's, he's won an Addy,
- 5:53Speaker 1: you know, and he came into a program that historically
- 5:55Speaker 1: has been one of the worst in the country. But
- 5:57Speaker 1: the one thing that dude knew how to install that
- 6:00Speaker 1: he took from Saban and he took from his years
- 6:02Speaker 1: of winning at JMU and moving up the food chain
- 6:05Speaker 1: to get to where he is now, he knew that
- 6:07Speaker 1: culture wins and he knows how to implement. And that was,
- 6:12Speaker 1: When Nick Marsh came over, and the first thing you
- 6:14Speaker 1: heard was he shows up for spring ball with the
- 6:16Speaker 1: gold cleats on, and Signetti's like, nope, go change. We're
- 6:21Speaker 1: not doing one-offs in here, buddy. It's like we're a team.
- 6:24Speaker 1: We're going to win as a team. And so he's
- 6:27Speaker 1: got that culture built into it. And I'm not saying
- 6:30Speaker 1: that that culture works everywhere, but the guy at the
- 6:33Speaker 1: top has got to have that culture built that can
- 6:36Speaker 1: drive it home. And, and I think that is more
- 6:39Speaker 1: true now than probably it was just five or six
- 6:42Speaker 1: years ago, because these rosters returned. I've never been a
- 6:45Speaker 1: giant Sonny Dykes fan. I liked the guy a lot.
- 6:47Speaker 1: I think you throw him in and you're going to
- 6:49Speaker 1: get a hot flash. And then he, I think I've,
- 6:53Speaker 1: He just kind of loses control of the roster a
- 6:55Speaker 1: little bit, in my personal opinion, lack of discipline there.
- 6:57Speaker 1: I don't know why. Just always a feeling I've had.
- 7:00Speaker 1: And go back and look last week. There wasn't a
- 7:02Speaker 1: person on planet Earth that thought TCU was going to
- 7:05Speaker 1: lose that game in North Carolina, and they looked like
- 7:07Speaker 1: hot garbage. Now, I was against them because you can't
- 7:11Speaker 1: play a– you can't convince me that you can roll
- 7:14Speaker 1: in– like Trinidad Chambliss winning the D2 championship and playing
- 7:18Speaker 1: at the SEC at the highest level. He wasn't even
- 7:20Speaker 1: the starter last year. And then he came on. He
- 7:23Speaker 1: caught lightning in a bottle. I'm not saying that can't
- 7:25Speaker 1: be done. You can't take a dude that was playing
- 7:27Speaker 1: at Harvard and just roll him out to the top
- 7:30Speaker 1: level of football in college and think that game speed
- 7:33Speaker 1: is going to transition. I mean, LSU tried it with
- 7:36Speaker 1: Andrew Hatch. I don't know how many years ago that was,
- 7:38Speaker 1: but he didn't make it through the first half.
- 7:41Speaker 2: Yeah, and you mentioned that last week. You know, I
- 7:45Speaker 2: will say this. I did not realize TCU was going
- 7:48Speaker 2: to downgrade the speed of that offense and all of
- 7:51Speaker 2: that quite that much. I knew they were going to
- 7:53Speaker 2: try to run the football more, but Holy smokes that man,
- 7:56Speaker 2: that was like 1990s football at the pace they were
- 7:59Speaker 2: running and what they were trying to do. This is
- 8:02Speaker 2: going to be an Epic fail. Dykes will get fired.
- 8:04Speaker 2: I mean, he's going to get fired three, three years
- 8:07Speaker 2: after playing for an Addy or whatever, four years or
- 8:09Speaker 2: whatever it was, but it ain't been very long. The,
- 8:12Speaker 2: I mean, that's a, that's a, that was amazing to me.
- 8:15Speaker 2: I do not think North Carolina is any good. I
- 8:18Speaker 2: still think that team sucks. That was too bad. Football
- 8:20Speaker 2: teams is what that was.
- 8:22Speaker 1: So anyway, let's jump in, baby. We got a full week.
- 8:25Speaker 1: One slate starts tonight. We're recording this Thursday morning. This
- 8:29Speaker 1: should be up Thursday afternoon. Hopefully everybody gets a chance
- 8:32Speaker 1: to dive in there. I will say this. I say
- 8:34Speaker 1: this every single year. You do not have to go
- 8:39Speaker 1: full units on week one. Don't blow your whole back
- 8:43Speaker 1: on something you haven't seen yet. These teams are going
- 8:47Speaker 1: to transform themselves as the season goes on and do
- 8:50Speaker 1: not go balls deep on something you read in a
- 8:52Speaker 1: magazine when you have not seen product on the field.
- 8:55Speaker 1: I'm just telling you, you're going to get improvement from
- 8:57Speaker 1: week one to week two, week zero to week one.
- 9:00Speaker 1: You're going to get a lot of those things.
- 9:04Speaker 2: And also, Mark, don't just think because Florida State looked
- 9:07Speaker 2: awful last week that they're going to look awful this Saturday.
- 9:10Speaker 2: I mean, there was a different level of intensity is
- 9:15Speaker 2: going to be out there this week. Not saying that
- 9:17Speaker 2: SMU may not win. Not saying they may not cover
- 9:20Speaker 2: on the road. Just telling you, you're going to get
- 9:24Speaker 2: a little more emotion out of the Seminoles this weekend.
- 9:27Speaker 1: Oh, my goodness. It's fantastic. All right, baby, let's jump
- 9:30Speaker 1: in here. What we got. We'll be using the board
- 9:32Speaker 1: over on V-CIN, pulling numbers from DraftKings. If you're wondering
- 9:35Speaker 1: where we're getting these, These are current as of 1030
- 9:38Speaker 1: Central Time. Let's get rocking and rolling. We got a
- 9:41Speaker 1: Thursday slate, Scott. We got a couple of games on
- 9:44Speaker 1: there that we're going to play. First one, we've got
- 9:46Speaker 1: Colorado and Georgia Tech are in this one here. Colorado's
- 9:49Speaker 1: getting six and a half. Number opened at seven. Got
- 9:52Speaker 1: bet down. Georgia Tech's laying six and a half. If
- 9:55Speaker 1: you go out and you look at all the prognosticators
- 9:57Speaker 1: that are out there, everybody seems to be on Colorado.
- 10:00Speaker 1: in this game. Over-runner here is at 51 and a half.
- 10:04Speaker 1: And you're seeing a big tilt, all the money, everything
- 10:07Speaker 1: else comes in on Georgia Tech. Colorado seems to be
- 10:10Speaker 1: the favorite of those that think that they like to
- 10:13Speaker 1: pick games. They are laying six and a half. This
- 10:16Speaker 1: game is being played in Atlanta. Prime's traveling home. I've
- 10:19Speaker 1: heard narratives that roll with that. I like Prime. I
- 10:23Speaker 1: like what they're doing here. I don't know if I
- 10:25Speaker 1: want to buy off on this. People are disregarding this
- 10:28Speaker 1: Georgia Tech team because they've lost Haynes King. You've got
- 10:31Speaker 1: Alberto Mendoza coming in here as the quarterback this year.
- 10:35Speaker 1: You've got the running back transfer, Justice Haynes, that came
- 10:37Speaker 1: down from Michigan to play for Georgia Tech in this one.
- 10:41Speaker 1: Don't forget, Colorado's got one of the top quarterback recruits
- 10:44Speaker 1: in the country that they brought in last year to
- 10:46Speaker 1: play for this team. But, man, I have gone and
- 10:48Speaker 1: watched some Colorado tape. That looks like a JV team
- 10:50Speaker 1: that they're rolling out there. And I know I'm about
- 10:53Speaker 1: to eat a whole lot of fucking crow if this
- 10:55Speaker 1: doesn't work right. But give me Georgia Tech minus six
- 10:58Speaker 1: and a half in this one. I just think Georgia
- 11:00Speaker 1: Tech's mentality is going to out-dale this Colorado team. And
- 11:05Speaker 1: I'm laying six and a half. I'm not making a
- 11:07Speaker 1: big bet here. This is a little bit more than
- 11:08Speaker 1: pizza money, but my first play is going to be
- 11:10Speaker 1: Georgia Tech minus six and a half.
- 11:13Speaker 2: Yeah. You know, here's the thing for me. Who do
- 11:18Speaker 2: you think is a better football coach? I think Brent
- 11:20Speaker 2: Key is. I think he's done a really, really good job.
- 11:23Speaker 2: I think he's done a nice job. I was shocked
- 11:25Speaker 2: he lost his quarterback. And so he had to go
- 11:28Speaker 2: get Mendoza, meaning his backup to King last year. Was
- 11:32Speaker 2: shocked about that. But, hey. That's the nature of the portal.
- 11:35Speaker 2: These kids think they're worth more money. I told somebody
- 11:38Speaker 2: this years ago about a job. When is it enough
- 11:41Speaker 2: money when somebody won't pay you more? That's the deal.
- 11:45Speaker 2: That's the situation we're in in college football right now.
- 11:49Speaker 2: People are going to job hop for more money, period.
- 11:53Speaker 2: But Alberto Mendoza is a pretty good place to land
- 11:55Speaker 2: if you're key. And then bringing in Justin Sainz, who
- 11:59Speaker 2: I think is a really, really good back. You know,
- 12:02Speaker 2: he had almost 900 yards at Michigan last year. He's
- 12:05Speaker 2: a transfer from Bama. This is a talented kid back
- 12:08Speaker 2: in the South. I just like this football team at home.
- 12:13Speaker 2: They won this game by seven on the road last year.
- 12:17Speaker 2: Not the same teams, but I just don't know that
- 12:20Speaker 2: Colorado is any better. I think this is an experiment
- 12:24Speaker 2: that is failing, and I know Prime has supposedly gotten
- 12:27Speaker 2: more dialed in, but you've got to get players. He
- 12:29Speaker 2: still doesn't want to go on visits, man. You can't recruit.
- 12:33Speaker 2: You can't get people. There are way too many people
- 12:36Speaker 2: that want you to come. I don't mean this bad.
- 12:38Speaker 2: No offense to prime, but nobody he's recruiting saw him play.
- 12:43Speaker 2: That's a long time ago, man. That's a long time ago.
- 12:47Speaker 2: He's trying to talk to the dads about prime time,
- 12:51Speaker 2: you know, and that's the, that's the bottom line. If
- 12:54Speaker 2: a dad doesn't think, Oh, you ought to go play
- 12:56Speaker 2: for prime. And I actually don't think Prime has a
- 13:00Speaker 2: bad message. I've said this before. I think his flash
- 13:04Speaker 2: and all of that is different than some of his–
- 13:07Speaker 2: the way he talks to some of these kids and
- 13:09Speaker 2: some of the lessons he's telling these kids. But give
- 13:11Speaker 2: me Brent Key and George Tech.
- 13:12Speaker 1: I like it. Next game I want to go to, baby.
- 13:15Speaker 1: Let's get my season rolling because nothing gets my balls
- 13:19Speaker 1: tingling more than a good Burt Bielema under on a
- 13:23Speaker 1: Thursday night. Burt and UAB in this one. UAB, Trent
- 13:27Speaker 1: Deldo's gone. Mortensen, that's Chris Mortensen's son, by the way,
- 13:31Speaker 1: took over this UAB team as an interim last year.
- 13:33Speaker 1: Actually did a pretty good job kind of getting it
- 13:35Speaker 1: on the rails. You've got an Illinois team here. They
- 13:37Speaker 1: lose Altermeyer. They also lose a couple other guys in
- 13:40Speaker 1: this roster. You know, this is an Illinois team that
- 13:42Speaker 1: has been built around a Big Ten concept of I'm
- 13:46Speaker 1: going to out physically you. We're going to play this way.
- 13:49Speaker 1: I think losing Altermeyer is a big deal for them.
- 13:52Speaker 1: But I like the under in this one. Opened at 56.5,
- 13:56Speaker 1: came down, it's been bent all the way down to 54.5.
- 13:59Speaker 1: You're starting to see some buyback on the over. I
- 14:01Speaker 1: don't know where that's coming from. I just don't see
- 14:04Speaker 1: how Burt's going to want to get this one opened
- 14:06Speaker 1: up and wide. I think you're going to see a
- 14:08Speaker 1: physical front on both sides of Illinois. I think they
- 14:11Speaker 1: win the trench. I think he's happy to go out
- 14:13Speaker 1: and win this one 35-7. Maybe. I don't see how
- 14:17Speaker 1: UAB gets to 14 points in this one. Give me–
- 14:20Speaker 1: Under 54 and a half, Burt Bielema may even give
- 14:24Speaker 1: me some of the first half under. Scotty, my favorite
- 14:26Speaker 1: Thursday night plays.
- 14:28Speaker 2: You know, I do like the under here. Look, I
- 14:31Speaker 2: get that he's replacing a lot, especially in that front
- 14:35Speaker 2: seven up front. But if there's one thing I think
- 14:37Speaker 2: he can do, I think it is replace that part.
- 14:40Speaker 2: I mean, that's who he is, is the defensive lineman.
- 14:43Speaker 2: And they have been so good and found so many
- 14:46Speaker 2: guys that were off the grid that up front since
- 14:49Speaker 2: he's been there that I have confidence in him being
- 14:52Speaker 2: able to do it again. That really is the truth.
- 14:54Speaker 2: They bring over a guy who's played a lot of snaps,
- 14:56Speaker 2: hasn't been great in Hauser at quarterback, but the bottom
- 14:59Speaker 2: line is he's been a Big Ten starter the last
- 15:01Speaker 2: two years. He's seen a lot of the fray, even
- 15:04Speaker 2: though it was at Michigan State. The kid has still
- 15:08Speaker 2: seen a lot of ball. Oddly enough, he's got a
- 15:10Speaker 2: lot more talent down here than he did at Michigan State,
- 15:13Speaker 2: so he's falling into a much better situation. I agree
- 15:17Speaker 2: with you. UAB still a program that's being built. I
- 15:20Speaker 2: think this is going to be a slugfest. Here's the deal.
- 15:23Speaker 2: When you play Burt, it's less possessions, man. It's less plays.
- 15:27Speaker 2: He's not playing fast.
- 15:32Speaker 2: He plays football.
- 15:35Speaker 2: It's a little more old school, so it's probably two
- 15:37Speaker 2: less possessions here. Yep, I agree with you.
- 15:39Speaker 1: Give me the under. Let's get that one rocking and rolling. Scotty,
- 15:43Speaker 1: next one I want to roll out for you. Let's
- 15:44Speaker 1: get this one excited. Let's move over to Saturday morning.
- 15:48Speaker 1: I don't have anything for Friday. Do you have anything
- 15:49Speaker 1: for Friday? Oh, yeah. You got something for Friday. I'm sorry.
- 15:54Speaker 1: Miami rolls out to Stanford. West Coast game. Got two
- 15:57Speaker 1: games on Friday, actually, I care. Miami rolls out to
- 16:00Speaker 1: play the trees in this one. Miami's laying 24 to
- 16:03Speaker 1: 24 and a half over under. And this one's 48
- 16:05Speaker 1: and a half that you've got from here. Stanford last
- 16:08Speaker 1: week had that backdoor cover. in the Hawaii game with
- 16:11Speaker 1: the scoop and score that the linebacker almost stopped on
- 16:14Speaker 1: the five yard line and went out of bounds. But
- 16:16Speaker 1: that game was a dead under, which was what I
- 16:18Speaker 1: was on in that game until like right at the
- 16:20Speaker 1: end of the second half. And I was like, what
- 16:22Speaker 1: the fuck is going on here? But I don't have
- 16:25Speaker 1: a lot of faith in this Stanford team. I think
- 16:27Speaker 1: to be to Pritchard, he may be the right guy
- 16:28Speaker 1: for this job. I mean, it looks like he was
- 16:30Speaker 1: establishing identity, but I wasn't real impressed with that Hawaii team.
- 16:34Speaker 1: Michael El Hato didn't play that well. They pulled him
- 16:36Speaker 1: out of the game in the fourth quarter. And the
- 16:39Speaker 1: slot receiver who's the best player for Hawaii didn't be
- 16:42Speaker 1: playing that game. You look at this one here, and
- 16:44Speaker 1: my man Mario has had some trouble on the West Coast,
- 16:47Speaker 1: and especially against Stanford. But I don't think he takes
- 16:50Speaker 1: his foot off the gas. And this Miami Hurricane team
- 16:52Speaker 1: is one of my teams I think can win the
- 16:55Speaker 1: national championship here. I think Miami covers this game going away.
- 17:00Speaker 2: Look, there it is. No doubt. Look, Mensah and Fletcher
- 17:04Speaker 2: and Toney. are not only the most talented three dudes
- 17:09Speaker 2: on this field, they're more talented by a multiple than
- 17:15Speaker 2: anybody they saw last week.
- 17:17Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
- 17:17Speaker 2: I mean, it is a game changer what's about to
- 17:22Speaker 2: go on. Look, the whole thing is offensive line for
- 17:25Speaker 2: this Miami staff. From a talent-wise, I think they're going
- 17:29Speaker 2: to do some things that are very, very creative, but
- 17:31Speaker 2: then it's going to allow Fletcher to kind of pound
- 17:33Speaker 2: and run downhill offensively And then they're going to catch
- 17:36Speaker 2: them with some quarterback runs and some quick throws to
- 17:39Speaker 2: Tony and some things like that that really get this
- 17:42Speaker 2: game kind of going and explosive. This thing, Stanford, is
- 17:45Speaker 2: still too far away. And you're not going to get
- 17:49Speaker 2: a crowd. You're going to get exactly what you got
- 17:51Speaker 2: last week. I mean, that nobody gave a rat's ass
- 17:56Speaker 2: about that game. I mean, you had they showed that
- 17:59Speaker 2: student section and there aren't. I mean, there aren't five
- 18:06Speaker 2: traditional American kids in the picture. Like, it is all Asians.
- 18:13Speaker 2: It's all Indians. I mean, it is wild. And they're
- 18:17Speaker 2: not cheering. They're not watching. They're on their phone. They're talking. Man,
- 18:22Speaker 2: you need to have a little bit of a home
- 18:24Speaker 2: field advantage. And I just don't think they're going to
- 18:26Speaker 2: get any of that based on what I saw last week.
- 18:29Speaker 2: I mean, not only was the crowd dismal, and I
- 18:31Speaker 2: think more people show up because it's Miami. But it's
- 18:34Speaker 2: more of they're not into the game. They don't love
- 18:36Speaker 2: the game. And it's like they were waiting on soccer
- 18:39Speaker 2: to break out last week. And it's not. I think
- 18:43Speaker 2: Miami's going to roll these guys.
- 18:47Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on this one. I think Miami's
- 18:49Speaker 1: one of the better teams in the country. I don't
- 18:51Speaker 1: look for this game to be a step back for them.
- 18:54Speaker 1: I'm going to roll. This is one of the bigger.
- 18:56Speaker 1: There's a couple of big numbers I like this week.
- 18:58Speaker 1: I'm not scared to lay some big numbers early in
- 19:01Speaker 1: the season because I think that We don't know how
- 19:03Speaker 1: good some of these teams are going to be, and
- 19:05Speaker 1: I'll take my chances early on. But I'll lay it
- 19:07Speaker 1: right here. Let's get it done. The other game we
- 19:10Speaker 1: got on the West Coast that same night, Scott, Fresno
- 19:13Speaker 1: State traveling down to the Coliseum, play USC in this one,
- 19:18Speaker 1: line in this one, sitting around 20, let's see, 22
- 19:21Speaker 1: and a half is where this one's at. Over under
- 19:24Speaker 1: on this one's at 51 and a half. Give me
- 19:26Speaker 1: a read on where you're at on this, baby.
- 19:28Speaker 2: I think we're going to get some points. I think, A,
- 19:31Speaker 2: I think USC is really good. I think on offense
- 19:33Speaker 2: they're pretty good. I think their quarterback play is really good.
- 19:37Speaker 2: They're at home again. They're going to, I think, going
- 19:41Speaker 2: to have a better crowd, A, because it's a night game. B,
- 19:46Speaker 2: for them, 90 is hot. You know, so I think
- 19:52Speaker 2: it's going to be down a little bit temp-wise at night.
- 19:55Speaker 2: They'll get more of a crowd. It'll be more of
- 19:57Speaker 2: a home field advantage. But that defense playing a lot
- 19:59Speaker 2: of young guys, and while they're super talented, which, by
- 20:02Speaker 2: the way, the defensive end is going to be a
- 20:04Speaker 2: full stud, minus injuries, minus injuries. That kid was the
- 20:09Speaker 2: number one defensive end, one of the top players in
- 20:12Speaker 2: the country. And that kid's a dude, if you didn't
- 20:14Speaker 2: watch last week. But I just think SC is just
- 20:20Speaker 2: going to be able to score. But I think Fresno
- 20:23Speaker 2: may be able to score some points in this ballgame, too. So, yeah,
- 20:26Speaker 2: I like the over. This seems like a short number
- 20:29Speaker 2: for an SC team. This game, they're going to have
- 20:33Speaker 2: to play all four quarters. And last week, they score
- 20:38Speaker 2: 50 if they've got to play three quarters.
- 20:43Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Fresno State can hang around in this
- 20:46Speaker 1: game for a bit. I don't know. And again, the
- 20:49Speaker 1: defense on USC, I like what I saw. It's still young.
- 20:52Speaker 1: They started a lot of young kids in there. I
- 20:54Speaker 1: think Fresno's going to get us a couple of points here.
- 20:56Speaker 1: And so I think this game will be a lot
- 20:58Speaker 1: closer than people think. I think the USC starters will
- 21:01Speaker 1: stay in this game. And I like this game to
- 21:03Speaker 1: go over the total. I think USC can easily put
- 21:06Speaker 1: up 35, 42 points on this Fresno State team. And
- 21:09Speaker 1: I think Fresno State may score 21 points. And so
- 21:12Speaker 1: let's go over 51 and a half. Scotty, get it
- 21:15Speaker 1: going on, baby. Houston Cougars at home. Saturday morning, hosting
- 21:21Speaker 1: the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State, this team is not
- 21:25Speaker 1: very good at football anymore. But they are in a
- 21:28Speaker 1: new conference, the Pac-10 or Pac-12, whatever it is. Houston's
- 21:31Speaker 1: laying 20 and a half over under here's 49 and
- 21:34Speaker 1: a half. Let me just start this by telling you,
- 21:36Speaker 1: I'm a big Willie Fritz fan and I like this
- 21:38Speaker 1: Houston team a lot. This would be a sleeper for
- 21:41Speaker 1: me to actually have a chance to play for the
- 21:43Speaker 1: big 12 championship game. They play Texas tech in a
- 21:45Speaker 1: couple of weeks. The reason I bring that up is,
- 21:47Speaker 1: is because this team's going to want to be firing
- 21:49Speaker 1: on all cylinders when they have to go out to
- 21:50Speaker 1: Lubbock in a couple of weeks. And so you've got to,
- 21:53Speaker 1: they bring in McKay Hughes, the running back that transferred
- 21:55Speaker 1: out from Tulane went to Oregon was lost in the
- 21:58Speaker 1: depth chart there. He comes back, reunite Willie Fritz in
- 22:01Speaker 1: this one. You've got Connor Wegman in this spot. And
- 22:05Speaker 1: I like the trench on both sides with U of
- 22:07Speaker 1: H that we've got from here. And this Oregon State team,
- 22:10Speaker 1: number one, Scott traveling across time zones, two of them,
- 22:14Speaker 1: mountain and rolling into the central. Number two, body clock,
- 22:17Speaker 1: 9 a.m. Oregon time is what it'll be in Houston.
- 22:21Speaker 1: And in Houston, Saturday morning, it is going to be
- 22:24Speaker 1: 90 plus degrees with the humidity about 85, 90%. It
- 22:27Speaker 1: is going to be Dank. And these Houston Cougar boys
- 22:32Speaker 1: are going to be ready for it. I think this
- 22:34Speaker 1: game goes over 21 before it kicks. I'm going to
- 22:37Speaker 1: lay it now. Give me the Cougars minus 20 and
- 22:39Speaker 1: a half.
- 22:40Speaker 2: I agree with you. Look, Conor Wagner's played a lot
- 22:42Speaker 2: of football. And I think he is the kind of
- 22:47Speaker 2: player that Willie Fritz wants. I think Fritz is a really, really,
- 22:53Speaker 2: really good football coach. I will go as far as
- 22:56Speaker 2: to say I think he's the best coach in this league.
- 23:01Speaker 2: I think Willie Fritz is a phenomenal coach. I have
- 23:05Speaker 2: called everyone that I know at Mississippi State a dumbass
- 23:08Speaker 2: for not hiring him twice, not once, but twice. Should
- 23:12Speaker 2: have hired him when they hired Joe Moorhead, but they
- 23:15Speaker 2: certainly should have hired him when they hired Mike Leach,
- 23:21Speaker 2: but on enough. Hell, they should have hired him three
- 23:24Speaker 2: times because they should have hired him when they hired Levy.
- 23:26Speaker 2: He just didn't want the job at that point because
- 23:28Speaker 2: they'd already passed twice. I think Willie Fritz is a
- 23:31Speaker 2: great football coach. I think that is the difference in
- 23:33Speaker 2: this game. I think the talent level is completely different.
- 23:36Speaker 2: This is year two. This is a guy who's got
- 23:39Speaker 2: a lot of guys on the offensive line, and this
- 23:41Speaker 2: is going to be the difference. We got guys that
- 23:45Speaker 2: have played a lot of starts. I mean, look, their
- 23:48Speaker 2: right guard started 12 games at center for New Mexico.
- 23:51Speaker 2: I mean, you got guys on this offensive line that
- 23:54Speaker 2: have played a lot of snaps, and I think you
- 23:57Speaker 2: put that with an experienced quarterback, And some pretty good
- 24:00Speaker 2: wide receivers. I think you're going to get some points here.
- 24:03Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think the heat crushes Oregon State.
- 24:06Speaker 2: It is going to be hot. Man, it is hot
- 24:10Speaker 2: in Texas right now.
- 24:11Speaker 1: Hot.
- 24:12Speaker 2: Yeah. And, I mean, you just had a tropical storm
- 24:15Speaker 2: roll through Houston. It's been raining. It is going to
- 24:19Speaker 2: be so muggy and so nasty. Those guys, you're going
- 24:23Speaker 2: to have all kinds of problems with Krantz for Oregon State.
- 24:26Speaker 2: I just think– I'm with you. I think Houston may
- 24:29Speaker 2: blow these guys' doors off.
- 24:32Speaker 1: Yeah, and Houston– and Oregon State's quarterback, you know, the
- 24:35Speaker 1: kid that used to be at Texas that transferred to
- 24:37Speaker 1: Oregon State, Malik– I can't remember his last name. Anyway,
- 24:40Speaker 1: Malik Hughes, maybe, something like that. Anyway, he got beat out.
- 24:43Speaker 1: So the quarterback that Oregon State's rolling out, there's a
- 24:45Speaker 1: kid that transferred in from Mercer. And so I just
- 24:48Speaker 1: don't know that he's going to be ready for what
- 24:49Speaker 1: he's going to see here.
- 24:51Speaker 2: Oregon State is pick eight in the Pac-12. I mean,
- 25:00Speaker 2: for those that don't know, I mean, this is it.
- 25:04Speaker 1: You got.
- 25:07Speaker 2: Boise, Fresno, San Diego State, Texas State, Washington State, Utah State,
- 25:13Speaker 2: Colorado State, and Oregon State. And Oregon State's down there?
- 25:19Speaker 2: I'm telling you, there's a lot of things that set
- 25:21Speaker 2: up bad here. Give me the Cougars. They're going to
- 25:24Speaker 2: put pound town on Oregon State.
- 25:30Speaker 1: I can't. All right. A couple other games that we've got.
- 25:33Speaker 1: Let's keep this thing rolling on the tracks. Next one, Scotty.
- 25:39Speaker 1: West Virginia at home hosting Coastal Carolina. I'm going to
- 25:43Speaker 1: set you up for this one. This one's fun to me.
- 25:45Speaker 1: You've got a rich rod team here. Michael Hawkins, kid
- 25:48Speaker 1: that transferred over– I think he's from Frisco. Isn't he
- 25:50Speaker 1: from where you're from?
- 25:51Speaker 2: He is. Frisco Emerson. Yep, sure is. Good athlete. Really
- 25:55Speaker 2: good athlete.
- 25:56Speaker 1: Transferred over from Oklahoma after being there a couple years.
- 26:00Speaker 1: For those of you that are a lot younger than
- 26:02Speaker 1: Scott and I and you have not watched some Rich
- 26:04Speaker 1: Rod football because you don't remember the last time he
- 26:07Speaker 1: was at West Virginia when he had the likes of
- 26:09Speaker 1: Steve Slate and Pat White and just bringing it with
- 26:12Speaker 1: those guys that were out there. This guy's a guy
- 26:15Speaker 1: that he wants to run the ball and run the
- 26:16Speaker 1: ball and run the ball and run the ball some more.
- 26:19Speaker 1: And I am all for it against this Coastal team.
- 26:21Speaker 1: This Coastal team is way down. This is a mid
- 26:24Speaker 1: to low tier Sunbelt squad that you've got here. They're
- 26:27Speaker 1: decimated in the trench on both sides from this standpoint.
- 26:30Speaker 1: And this is a rich rod team. I'm kind of
- 26:32Speaker 1: excited to see what they're going to do. Last year
- 26:34Speaker 1: when he took this team over, he had 43 guys
- 26:38Speaker 1: that he had never seen in person play football until
- 26:42Speaker 1: they arrived in camp in June. And at that point,
- 26:45Speaker 1: you're just doing strength and conditioning and going through drills
- 26:48Speaker 1: because the portal was still open at that point. Well,
- 26:50Speaker 1: the portal's closed, so he's now had that roster intact
- 26:53Speaker 1: since Christmas, and it's been rolling with him this year.
- 26:56Speaker 1: I think we're going to see a market improvement on
- 26:59Speaker 1: this West Virginia team. Are you going to roll with
- 27:02Speaker 1: me on minus 21?
- 27:03Speaker 2: Of course I am. I do like West Virginia here.
- 27:07Speaker 2: This is more about, man, Coastal got ravaged. And the portal,
- 27:11Speaker 2: with there only being one portal window, and it's such
- 27:15Speaker 2: a short time period when your coach leaves, it's, it's,
- 27:20Speaker 2: it can get ungood fast. And look, I think a
- 27:23Speaker 2: little bit of that happened to Kiffin and he was
- 27:26Speaker 2: in place way beforehand. He could at least go to work.
- 27:29Speaker 2: He thought he was going to just be able to
- 27:30Speaker 2: bring every Ole Miss guy with him is what he thought.
- 27:33Speaker 2: Cause that normally happens. And the rebels just got out
- 27:35Speaker 2: front of it and spent the money and kept most
- 27:38Speaker 2: of them. So that is, you know, and I think
- 27:41Speaker 2: they kept winning and that, you know, that That hurt them.
- 27:46Speaker 2: I say hurt them, hurt Kiffin in the transfer portal.
- 27:50Speaker 2: So I think what this is really about is it's
- 27:54Speaker 2: year two, Rich Rod. I think he does have a
- 27:56Speaker 2: quarterback who fits him perfectly. And I do think Hawkins
- 28:00Speaker 2: is a talented kid. And I just think this Coastal
- 28:05Speaker 2: Carolina team is not what we've seen over the last
- 28:08Speaker 2: decade from this football team. I think it's a completely
- 28:11Speaker 2: different unit. I think they're going to be completely outmanned.
- 28:14Speaker 2: I like me some West Virginia right here. And, look,
- 28:17Speaker 2: Rich Rod will hang 60 on them if he can.
- 28:20Speaker 2: He will run it up if he can. He needs momentum.
- 28:23Speaker 2: He needs to build excitement in that program again.
- 28:27Speaker 1: Scotty, let's talk about a MAAC play that you might
- 28:29Speaker 1: want to get involved in. Miami, the Red Hawks traveling
- 28:32Speaker 1: to play Nardog and Pitt. Pitt's laying 16-and-a-half here, over-under's 47-and-a-half.
- 28:39Speaker 1: Give me a breakdown on this one.
- 28:41Speaker 2: Well, first, I think they're probably the best team in
- 28:45Speaker 2: the MAAC is first. And I do like this game.
- 28:50Speaker 2: They're going to be right there at the top of
- 28:51Speaker 2: the MAAC. A lot of– you know, they've had a
- 28:55Speaker 2: lot of stability at the coaching, you know, side, which
- 28:58Speaker 2: has helped that– you know, I think that team stay
- 29:01Speaker 2: in place a little bit more. But Pitt is one
- 29:05Speaker 2: of those teams that just– every year they figure out
- 29:11Speaker 2: how to lose a game. They shouldn't. I mean, it's,
- 29:14Speaker 2: and it's every year you're like, how are the, you
- 29:18Speaker 2: think they're better and then they're not. And then they're not.
- 29:21Speaker 2: I mean, that's just the, that's just the bottom line.
- 29:24Speaker 2: And with, with Nard dog, it's like they're permanently a seven,
- 29:30Speaker 2: eight win team. Like they just can't quite, Get over
- 29:34Speaker 2: the hump. I mean, that really is the the really
- 29:37Speaker 2: is the difference. I mean, Chuck Martin being there 13 years,
- 29:40Speaker 2: they kind of do what they do. They brought in
- 29:43Speaker 2: a quarterback to back up from back up from Kansas
- 29:46Speaker 2: last year. So you got, you got, you got a
- 29:51Speaker 2: Mac team that's on the better end. You got a
- 29:53Speaker 2: mid-level team and, and with Pitt, what you've also got
- 29:58Speaker 2: is a team that is, I just feel like that
- 30:04Speaker 2: Pitt is one of those teams that just can't find
- 30:08Speaker 2: a way to get out of its own way. It's
- 30:13Speaker 2: like they're topped out, I guess is the right way
- 30:16Speaker 2: to say it. Seven and eight wins is what they
- 30:18Speaker 2: always do. They've got the quarterback, what, Hanchel or whatever
- 30:23Speaker 2: his name is, back. I mean, you feel like, okay,
- 30:27Speaker 2: this ought to be the year. They kept, you know,
- 30:29Speaker 2: they got, I think it's 13 true starters back from
- 30:33Speaker 2: their roster. You think, okay, this is going to be
- 30:36Speaker 2: a big deal. They got a chance to go. But
- 30:39Speaker 2: they start conference play next week. This feels like Pitt's
- 30:44Speaker 2: going to be real methodical here. I think that Miami
- 30:49Speaker 2: team is going to be good enough to just hang
- 30:51Speaker 2: around And then you've got– because Pitt's got UCF and
- 30:56Speaker 2: then Syracuse back-to-back weeks, and that Syracuse game is on Thursday,
- 31:02Speaker 2: so it's a short week. Look, coaches have to manage schedules.
- 31:07Speaker 2: They're going to be real workmanlike. I don't think this
- 31:10Speaker 2: team is good enough to go dust people when they're
- 31:12Speaker 2: real workmanlike. That's my honest opinion. So they start with
- 31:16Speaker 2: four home games. They've got to get off to a
- 31:19Speaker 2: fast start. I don't think Miami's– I don't think we're
- 31:21Speaker 2: on upset watch here, but I do think they could
- 31:24Speaker 2: sneak around and cover 16 and a half.
- 31:28Speaker 1: Let's go Red Hawks, baby. I mean, digging in on
- 31:33Speaker 1: our first play of the week. Mac's going to be
- 31:36Speaker 1: bad this year, by the way. I don't think there's
- 31:38Speaker 1: a lot of talent left in that league. I think
- 31:41Speaker 1: I'm going to give you one more, Mac, for my upset. Oh,
- 31:44Speaker 1: I love where this is going because I have no
- 31:46Speaker 1: idea where this is on the rundown. I'm rolling along here.
- 31:49Speaker 1: You got a couple other interesting games. I'm going to
- 31:51Speaker 1: bring up Oregon, Boise state, Oregon's laying 24 and a
- 31:54Speaker 1: half in this one. You might still be able to
- 31:56Speaker 1: find a 24 Boise state there. A lot of these
- 31:59Speaker 1: people think this is the, the G six team. That's
- 32:03Speaker 1: going to make it into the college football playoff. After
- 32:05Speaker 1: last week, North Dakota state was already getting some of that.
- 32:07Speaker 1: Love it. The numbers shifted and everything else. This Oregon team,
- 32:12Speaker 1: to me, is going to be playing in the national championship.
- 32:15Speaker 1: I really do believe that. And what I really like
- 32:17Speaker 1: about this Oregon team is how much they bring back.
- 32:20Speaker 1: Bring back their quarterback, who's super dynamic. They bring back–
- 32:23Speaker 1: the wide receiver room is going to be electric. We
- 32:26Speaker 1: didn't even get to see it last year. Evan Stewart
- 32:31Speaker 1: and DeCorey had more barely played together. And so you've
- 32:34Speaker 1: got that. The running back room is good. They did
- 32:36Speaker 1: lose a lot of offensive linemen, but I have got
- 32:39Speaker 1: a lot of faith in this team. But the defensive
- 32:41Speaker 1: side of the ball in the trench is going to
- 32:44Speaker 1: be overwhelming against Boise State. Boise State has beaten Oregon.
- 32:49Speaker 1: I watched it firsthand. I saw LeGarrette Blount punch that
- 32:53Speaker 1: defensive tackle right in the face hole in that one.
- 32:56Speaker 1: But it ain't going to happen this time, baby. The
- 32:58Speaker 1: Oregon Ducks are taking care of business. This game's in Eugene.
- 33:01Speaker 1: It's a big number. I'm going to lay it. Give
- 33:04Speaker 1: me the Ducks. Minus 24 and a half. Probably my
- 33:07Speaker 1: favorite play of the week.
- 33:08Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Ducks are going to get off
- 33:10Speaker 2: to a fast start. I think, you know, look, their
- 33:13Speaker 2: quarterback is really good. And, look, I understand Boise's got
- 33:18Speaker 2: Maddox Madsen back. I mean, it feels like that kid,
- 33:21Speaker 2: this is one of those deals. You feel like he's
- 33:22Speaker 2: going to be 25. He's not. He's just been starting
- 33:26Speaker 2: for a long time. Yeah, I mean, you feel like
- 33:29Speaker 2: he is Max Johnson, but he's not. He's just played
- 33:31Speaker 2: a lot of snaps, and.
- 33:32Speaker 1: They've been good.
- 33:33Speaker 2: Here's the deal. They want to be able to run
- 33:34Speaker 2: the football. And– I don't think that's going to be
- 33:38Speaker 2: able to happen. This offense is based on them being
- 33:41Speaker 2: able to run the football. Their back is Dylan Riley.
- 33:46Speaker 2: That kid's over 1,000 yards for the last couple of years.
- 33:50Speaker 2: He's averaged a little over 600 yards a year. That's
- 33:54Speaker 2: a good player. That's a good back. That's solid. I
- 33:58Speaker 2: don't think they're going to be able to run the
- 33:59Speaker 2: football at all. They do have Some guys coming back
- 34:05Speaker 2: on the interior, but they are starting a new left
- 34:07Speaker 2: tackle and a new center. That's bad spots to be
- 34:11Speaker 2: going up against this defensive line and this set of
- 34:13Speaker 2: linebackers because you're going to have a really, really talented
- 34:17Speaker 2: front against a guy calling plays who hasn't done it,
- 34:21Speaker 2: and then you've got the key spot against one of
- 34:23Speaker 2: the best pass rushers in America. I think that creates
- 34:27Speaker 2: all kinds of problems. I think Oregon wins this game
- 34:31Speaker 2: going away, and I think I mean, I didn't just
- 34:35Speaker 2: make it ugly. And look, people are so used to
- 34:38Speaker 2: Boise keeping things close. That ain't going to happen. This
- 34:43Speaker 2: is not your opening game from LeGarrette Blount. Let me
- 34:46Speaker 2: say it like that.
- 34:49Speaker 1: Last game I got on the board, Scotty. I'm going
- 34:51Speaker 1: to go all the way out to Sunday evening or
- 34:53Speaker 1: some point Sunday. It's Louisville and Ole Miss. Ole Miss
- 34:57Speaker 1: laying six and a half in this one. Line here
- 34:59Speaker 1: is 55 and a half. On the total, I'm going under.
- 35:04Speaker 1: and here's why, is Pete Golding, first of all, do
- 35:08Speaker 1: you know how old Pete Golding is?
- 35:11Speaker 2: He's not yet, is he?
- 35:13Speaker 1: I was like 42. What?
- 35:15Speaker 2: Yeah, he looks old.
- 35:19Speaker 1: I guess when you've been getting bitched at by Nick
- 35:21Speaker 1: Saban for like 15 years, he'd look old. I guess
- 35:25Speaker 1: he's white, though, because.
- 35:25Speaker 2: He did play on those Delta State national title teams,
- 35:28Speaker 2: and that was significantly younger than me, so... Anyway.
- 35:33Speaker 1: Putting it out there, Ole Miss coming in here laying
- 35:35Speaker 1: six and a half, 55 and a half is the over.
- 35:38Speaker 1: I'd like to get this to 56. I'm going under here.
- 35:40Speaker 1: Here's why. I don't know what we're going to get
- 35:43Speaker 1: from Ole Miss. I really do think the Ole Miss
- 35:45Speaker 1: offense is going to be good, but you do lose
- 35:46Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin. You lose Charlie Weiss, call the plays. You know,
- 35:50Speaker 1: Chambliss is obviously everybody's darling. A lot of people think
- 35:52Speaker 1: he could win the Heisman. You've got the running back
- 35:54Speaker 1: room looks great for Ole Miss, but the strength of
- 35:57Speaker 1: this Ole Miss team is their defense. And I think
- 36:00Speaker 1: as this season goes on, Pete Golding is going to
- 36:02Speaker 1: be a lot more comfortable leaning on his defense than
- 36:05Speaker 1: he is worrying about his offense trying to get things done.
- 36:09Speaker 1: And that means he could slow the game down just
- 36:11Speaker 1: a little bit. You go back and you watch Chambliss
- 36:13Speaker 1: last year, most of his big plays were scrambling, making
- 36:17Speaker 1: things happen, doing types of things. He's real electric in
- 36:19Speaker 1: that fashion. Flipping around to the Louisville side, I love
- 36:22Speaker 1: me some Jeff Brom. I think game day coach Jeff
- 36:25Speaker 1: Brom is probably one of my favorite game day coaches
- 36:26Speaker 1: in the game right now. I think the guy, he's
- 36:29Speaker 1: an old quarterback. He comes into it with the mindset
- 36:32Speaker 1: of what he thinks he can and can't do. I
- 36:34Speaker 1: think he's got a great understanding of what he's able
- 36:36Speaker 1: to do with his offense. Saw that at Purdue. I mean,
- 36:38Speaker 1: he did well at Purdue. And so you've got a
- 36:41Speaker 1: brand-new quarterback running this RPO system that transferred over from
- 36:45Speaker 1: Ohio State and running in the scheme here. You've got
- 36:49Speaker 1: a linebacker room at Louisville that I think is one
- 36:51Speaker 1: of the top five or ten in the country. And
- 36:53Speaker 1: so I think this game is going to be a
- 36:55Speaker 1: lot slower starting than what people think. I don't think
- 36:57Speaker 1: we're going to get the fireworks that are going to
- 36:59Speaker 1: be in this one. I'm going under 55 and a half.
- 37:02Speaker 1: Might even nip it up to a 56. I may
- 37:04Speaker 1: be contrarian on this one, baby, but I like the
- 37:06Speaker 1: under in this one.
- 37:08Speaker 2: I like the under in this game too. You know,
- 37:10Speaker 2: the interesting part on Louisville is this team continues to
- 37:19Speaker 2: just get it done. And boy, they are cycling through guys.
- 37:22Speaker 2: I mean, it's just like, You never know who the
- 37:24Speaker 2: quarterback's going to be. It's like they go get a
- 37:26Speaker 2: new one every year, but yet he puts up good numbers.
- 37:30Speaker 2: Rob's a good football coach. I mean, let's not forget
- 37:33Speaker 2: that he did a really, really good job at Purdue,
- 37:36Speaker 2: and this is a much better job than that. And
- 37:39Speaker 2: I think he is in a good spot. I agree
- 37:42Speaker 2: with you. I think the strength of this team is
- 37:44Speaker 2: Ole Miss' defense. That is odd when you talk about
- 37:47Speaker 2: Lacey and Chambliss. You think– Your defense, man, centering Perkins
- 37:54Speaker 2: is fun to watch. I mean, and look, Cam Franklin
- 37:59Speaker 2: was a big-time recruit. You know, he's now in his
- 38:02Speaker 2: third year up there. He's a defensive end, going to
- 38:05Speaker 2: make a bunch of plays. But you've got to look
- 38:06Speaker 2: at that defense. And Echols and Perkins, when there was
- 38:10Speaker 2: a big play made all year last year, one of
- 38:14Speaker 2: those two guys, they're both back. They're the heart and
- 38:18Speaker 2: soul of this defense. They both play up front. Perkins
- 38:21Speaker 2: moves around at linebacker. He'll be on the line. He'll
- 38:23Speaker 2: drop into coverage. He's just a super talented kid. I
- 38:27Speaker 2: like watching that guy play. I mean, and that pains
- 38:31Speaker 2: me to say because he's a rebel, but I do
- 38:33Speaker 2: love watching this kid play. I think he plays a
- 38:36Speaker 2: great brand of football. He's done it since he was
- 38:38Speaker 2: a freshman. I just like how the kid plays, but
- 38:42Speaker 2: I think he is the heart and soul of this team.
- 38:44Speaker 2: He's the kind of kid you really can't build a
- 38:47Speaker 2: team around. And the dude has played a shit ton
- 38:52Speaker 2: of snaps at Ole Miss. I agree with you. I
- 38:54Speaker 2: think defenses are going to control this more. I think
- 38:58Speaker 2: Ole Miss is going to win and probably cover this number,
- 39:00Speaker 2: but I agree with you. I think the under is
- 39:03Speaker 2: probably the safer play early in the season.
- 39:07Speaker 1: Scott Aiden. You know, we got this weekend, we got
- 39:09Speaker 1: Mississippi State playing football, baby, playing ULM in this one.
- 39:13Speaker 1: They're laying a big number in this one. And I
- 39:16Speaker 1: know you've got your pulse on everything going on in
- 39:19Speaker 1: Stark Vegas. Laying 28 and a half, over-unders 54 and
- 39:24Speaker 1: a half. Does your man Jeff Levy come out and
- 39:27Speaker 1: get the home crowd fired up and let them think that, man,
- 39:30Speaker 1: we've got a chance this year. Let's go bowling. He better.
- 39:34Speaker 2: I'll say that because that schedule is pretty nasty. I
- 39:37Speaker 2: think they're a whole lot better than they were last year,
- 39:39Speaker 2: and they're a whole lot better than they were two
- 39:40Speaker 2: years ago, and they may go four and eight. I mean,
- 39:45Speaker 2: that's the truth. I mean, this is a tough schedule.
- 39:48Speaker 2: He's going to have to beat some people, play some
- 39:49Speaker 2: tough teams at home. Got a tough road game to Minnesota. So, yeah,
- 39:54Speaker 2: I think they come out firing. The quarterback is the
- 39:58Speaker 2: most talented. I understand I'm saying this with Dak Prescott
- 40:00Speaker 2: being a 10-year starter in the NFL. It's the most
- 40:03Speaker 2: talented quarterback that's ever taken a snap at Mississippi State.
- 40:06Speaker 2: I mean, Kamario Taylor is a freak. I mean, he
- 40:09Speaker 2: is a complete freak. Saw Archie Manning this week commenting on,
- 40:14Speaker 2: you know, the passing academy. And, you know, was there
- 40:16Speaker 2: anybody who was super impressive? He goes in and says,
- 40:19Speaker 2: he's just different. You just don't see kids that big,
- 40:22Speaker 2: that strong, that athletic that can throw the football like that.
- 40:25Speaker 2: He's got a great arm. He's got to, if he
- 40:28Speaker 2: has improved his accuracy, which everybody around that program says
- 40:31Speaker 2: he has, if he's improved his accuracy, they are going
- 40:36Speaker 2: to be a good football team. Levy swears this offensive
- 40:39Speaker 2: line is better. If it is, and he remotely has
- 40:42Speaker 2: time to throw, Or more importantly, they can open some
- 40:45Speaker 2: holes for him to run. I mean, that run he
- 40:47Speaker 2: made against Ole Miss was just, I mean, I think
- 40:50Speaker 2: that will stick in everybody's heat. I mean, outran a
- 40:53Speaker 2: great defense, made a couple of really good players just
- 40:55Speaker 2: look silly. The kid is a great athlete. Evans is outstanding.
- 41:00Speaker 2: They got Fluff Botwell back at the running back spot.
- 41:04Speaker 2: They are deep at running back. A couple of really
- 41:07Speaker 2: good freshmen as well. Guyton's a talented kid at the back.
- 41:11Speaker 2: They're pretty deep at wide receiver. They've got some guys.
- 41:16Speaker 2: Sanfrisco McGee is a guy that you're probably going to
- 41:19Speaker 2: see have the breakout season. He's a fast kid. Yes,
- 41:22Speaker 2: I think that they're going to have to come out fast.
- 41:26Speaker 2: If you're going to lay a big number on games
- 41:29Speaker 2: that you don't know anything about, this is probably a
- 41:32Speaker 2: good one to do it. Levy will score 70 if
- 41:35Speaker 2: he can, and I mean that. He will keep scoring
- 41:39Speaker 2: and keep throwing. and keep going. There's also a real
- 41:43Speaker 2: battle for the quarterback jobs. You're going to have guys
- 41:48Speaker 2: that want to come out and fling it. Levy's offense
- 41:50Speaker 2: doesn't change when they change quarterbacks, and you've got guys
- 41:53Speaker 2: that want to run it. Right now, they've got a
- 41:56Speaker 2: kid that was a walk-on who played private school ball
- 42:00Speaker 2: in Mississippi who's just a solid, solid kid. He's going
- 42:03Speaker 2: to make every right decision. and Levy gets guys open.
- 42:07Speaker 2: So I think you may see kids come in that
- 42:10Speaker 2: really want to put the gas down and get their
- 42:12Speaker 2: reps and show what they can do in case Kamario
- 42:15Speaker 2: Taylor gets hurt. So I think this is a good opportunity.
- 42:19Speaker 2: I do think this Ulamo team has improved. I think
- 42:23Speaker 2: this is a decent little football team, but I think
- 42:26Speaker 2: State is going to be able to stretch themselves out. Defensively,
- 42:30Speaker 2: State's a whole lot better, a whole lot better. They
- 42:33Speaker 2: brought back Will Arnett. they are going to be a
- 42:36Speaker 2: better football team.
- 42:38Speaker 1: I like it, baby. I'm on state. This is one
- 42:40Speaker 1: of my favorite plays. I just was going to let
- 42:42Speaker 1: you tee it up because I know you know that
- 42:43Speaker 1: roster better than I do. You got a couple of
- 42:46Speaker 1: big games here, Scott. I'm just going to fire through
- 42:48Speaker 1: these real quick. Apple cup, Washington's land 23. I don't
- 42:53Speaker 1: think the Washington state's that good. I don't know if
- 42:56Speaker 1: I want to get involved in that one, but that's
- 42:57Speaker 1: a fun Sunday game. Wisconsin getting 20, 21 and a
- 43:02Speaker 1: half against Notre Dame over under 46 and a half.
- 43:05Speaker 1: What do you think you're going to get out of
- 43:06Speaker 1: that one?
- 43:07Speaker 2: Man, I'm going to tell you something. That line screams
- 43:10Speaker 2: to me to take Notre Dame. I love C.J.
- 43:13Speaker 1: Carr.
- 43:14Speaker 2: But that's what scares me is that it says you
- 43:16Speaker 2: bet it so much. And, man, this is life or
- 43:21Speaker 2: death for Luke Fickle. I mean, they have got to
- 43:23Speaker 2: be good. And if he can come out and be
- 43:26Speaker 2: competitive– You think, okay, we got a shot. Those ND receivers,
- 43:31Speaker 2: I think, are super talented. We don't know what they're
- 43:33Speaker 2: going to get. They got a talented running back room. But, man,
- 43:38Speaker 2: I love Marcus Freeman. I think they're going to get it.
- 43:43Speaker 2: That's a touch too many points for me.
- 43:47Speaker 1: Cal, UCLA. Love this game.
- 43:50Speaker 2: Love this game.
- 43:53Speaker 1: I don't know how I want to play this game, though.
- 43:55Speaker 1: I just want to watch it.
- 43:56Speaker 2: I don't either.
- 43:56Speaker 1: That's why I love it.
- 43:57Speaker 2: I'm bouncing back and forth. I will probably end up
- 44:00Speaker 2: taking Cal. I feel like Cal wins these games on
- 44:03Speaker 2: this slate. You know, I feel like they win these
- 44:10Speaker 2: games more than they should. And I think this may
- 44:14Speaker 2: be a chance. I do like their quarterback. And look,
- 44:19Speaker 2: I told you, I think UCLA, from a management standpoint,
- 44:24Speaker 2: is a mess. But I think Chesney bringing over the
- 44:26Speaker 2: running back, I think this is going to be a
- 44:28Speaker 2: really fun game to watch. The real reason I'm going
- 44:31Speaker 2: to be real careful betting on this game, and it
- 44:33Speaker 2: won't be a big number for me, is I want
- 44:37Speaker 2: to see if I'm right about this being a good
- 44:39Speaker 2: fit for Chesney and the quarterback. Do he and Nico mold?
- 44:44Speaker 2: And if they do... I think UCLA's got a chance
- 44:49Speaker 2: to surprise some people. But I think Cal's going to
- 44:51Speaker 2: be a surprise team in the ACC. I'm going to
- 44:52Speaker 2: go ahead and tell you.
- 44:54Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree. I think both of these teams
- 44:57Speaker 1: are probably going to– I'll be shocked if both of
- 44:59Speaker 1: these teams don't end up going bowling. I think they're
- 45:02Speaker 1: both going to outperform expectation. I'm looking forward to watching
- 45:05Speaker 1: this game. If I were to lean anything, I would
- 45:07Speaker 1: lean to the over. It's already taken on a shit
- 45:10Speaker 1: ton of money. Another game I want to talk about, Clemson, LSU.
- 45:15Speaker 1: I want to play LSU here because I went back
- 45:19Speaker 1: and looked at the stats on last year's game. You know,
- 45:21Speaker 1: the best thing Kiffin did when he came to LSU
- 45:24Speaker 1: was keep the defensive coordinator. And last year in that game.
- 45:29Speaker 1: Baker blitzed the balls off of Cade Klubnick. And you've
- 45:32Speaker 1: got to realize, Klubnick was a fifth-year senior last year
- 45:35Speaker 1: that had been part of that team. A lot of
- 45:38Speaker 1: people coming into last.
- 45:39Speaker 2: Year thought he had– He's got an NFL roster. I mean,
- 45:41Speaker 2: he's a good player.
- 45:42Speaker 1: I mean, and he had that defense– I mean, that
- 45:46Speaker 1: offense befuddled. So you're about to roll out a kid
- 45:48Speaker 1: who has seen very little snaps for Clemson. And Clemson
- 45:53Speaker 1: is just– I think we're all hanging on to what
- 45:56Speaker 1: Clemson was. I don't know that this roster is anywhere
- 45:59Speaker 1: better than 8-4, to be honest with you. And I
- 46:03Speaker 1: haven't seen Clemson have wide receivers that can separate in years.
- 46:06Speaker 1: They can still typically put a defense out there. But
- 46:09Speaker 1: the only thing that's not making me take LSU minus
- 46:13Speaker 1: the number here is just because of some of the
- 46:15Speaker 1: fucking circus show that's been going on around LSU in
- 46:17Speaker 1: the last 10 days. You've got to wonder how much
- 46:20Speaker 1: that's going to affect the locker room. But then the
- 46:21Speaker 1: other thing is, too, I haven't seen Sam Levitt be
- 46:24Speaker 1: explosive in almost two years. And so I put my
- 46:28Speaker 1: money on it.
- 46:29Speaker 2: You want to know why I'm not taking this game?
- 46:30Speaker 2: Sam Levitt. I watched that guy wet the bed in Starkville.
- 46:34Speaker 2: I mean, he was awful. I mean, and just because
- 46:37Speaker 2: you're at home doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to,
- 46:40Speaker 2: I mean, that's still going to be a rowdy environment.
- 46:44Speaker 2: Make no mistake. You struggle like he struggled in the
- 46:47Speaker 2: first half against Mississippi State last year. And those LSU
- 46:50Speaker 2: fans will be booing his ass. They don't care that
- 46:53Speaker 2: they're paying him $ 5 million. they will be booing him
- 46:57Speaker 2: and they will turn on him in a heartbeat. I just, I'm,
- 47:01Speaker 2: I think, I think he was about the fourth choice
- 47:05Speaker 2: at quarterback for, I know he's behind Jamless and I
- 47:10Speaker 2: know he's behind the kid. Yeah. So, I mean, you know,
- 47:15Speaker 2: you know, he was behind those two. So he's sure. Third,
- 47:18Speaker 2: that I will never forget that picture of him. sitting
- 47:22Speaker 2: with him at the basketball game, and you could just
- 47:24Speaker 2: tell by the look on his face, this is the
- 47:28Speaker 2: guy that I'm stuck with. I mean, you could just
- 47:31Speaker 2: see it in his face. Like, oh, my God, how
- 47:33Speaker 2: did this happen to me? You know, how did I
- 47:36Speaker 2: not get Trinidad? You know, that's what he was thinking.
- 47:40Speaker 2: And you just could feel it. If anybody can fix him,
- 47:43Speaker 2: Tiffin can. You know, and that's the flip side of this.
- 47:48Speaker 2: I agree with you about Clemson. I think we may
- 47:50Speaker 2: just be overvaluing who they are now. And we're going
- 47:56Speaker 2: to find that out. If they go eight and four,
- 47:57Speaker 2: nine and three, then that's who they are. I mean,
- 48:00Speaker 2: they're the team they were last year again. And they
- 48:03Speaker 2: probably are going to have had a lot better quarterback
- 48:05Speaker 2: play last year than there is a new expectation level
- 48:10Speaker 2: for Clemson in my mind.
- 48:13Speaker 1: You got anything else on this board?
- 48:14Speaker 2: I do. I got your upset special, Mark.
- 48:18Speaker 1: What you got?
- 48:18Speaker 2: Let's go to San Jose State at Eastern Michigan. I'm
- 48:22Speaker 2: one of about eight people that watched both of these
- 48:25Speaker 2: teams play last week, knowing that this game was coming.
- 48:29Speaker 2: Give me a little San Jose State going on the road,
- 48:33Speaker 2: on the road to Ypsilanti, right? Isn't that where they are? Ypsilanti, Michigan.
- 48:38Speaker 2: Give me the upset. San Jose State. I think that
- 48:40Speaker 2: line's two and a half. That's my upset play of
- 48:43Speaker 2: the week.
- 48:44Speaker 1: Oh, man. I'll tie you one up with that one.
- 48:48Speaker 1: What do we want here? Give me Central Michigan to
- 48:54Speaker 1: pull the upset at New Mexico.
- 48:57Speaker 2: Oh, you're going Maxson, too.
- 48:59Speaker 1: Look at you. Yeah. Give me Central Michigan. I like
- 49:03Speaker 1: Central Michigan plus ten and a half, but if I'm
- 49:05Speaker 1: going to try to pair it up with something that
- 49:07Speaker 1: I think we could get some money on, that's plus
- 49:09Speaker 1: 360– And what's the other one? It can be plus
- 49:14Speaker 1: 130 in that one. So if you're looking for a
- 49:16Speaker 1: Moneyline Parlay, that one should come home pretty solid for you.
- 49:20Speaker 2: I got one more that I got my eye on.
- 49:23Speaker 2: I am fascinated to watch Alabama start a super talented quarterback.
- 49:27Speaker 2: Kid went to Duncanville out here. Super talented kid. Fascinated
- 49:32Speaker 2: to see how he does in his first game against
- 49:35Speaker 2: ECU at home. 28 and a half, that's a big number.
- 49:40Speaker 2: I got questions about Bama up front, offensive and defensive lines.
- 49:46Speaker 2: So that is my concern. He is a super talented kid,
- 49:50Speaker 2: so rush is getting through. He may scramble and go nuts.
- 49:54Speaker 2: I think ECU might can get a cover here, and buddy,
- 49:58Speaker 2: there'll be some uncomfortable seats in Tuscaloosa. if they cover
- 50:04Speaker 2: 28 and a half. I want to watch this game.
- 50:06Speaker 2: If I play it, I'm not going to play it big,
- 50:08Speaker 2: but that's a game I got my eye on.
- 50:11Speaker 1: Oh, man, that's awesome. Folks, with that being said, share
- 50:13Speaker 1: us with your friends. Give us some reviews. Sorry about
- 50:16Speaker 1: last week. We couldn't get online, but we'll be here
- 50:18Speaker 1: every week. We'll be dropping podcasts. We'll try to get
- 50:20Speaker 1: those up by Thursday at noon so you can have
- 50:23Speaker 1: some action Thursday night if there is any. We love you.
- 50:26Speaker 1: Everybody be safe. And watch your unit size this week, baby,
- 50:30Speaker 1: because we don't know a whole lot. We're always learning.
- 50:33Speaker 1: Talk to you next week.