Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Rate Hike Fears Crash Markets?📉Technical Analysis with Tim Warren

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Rate Hike Fears Crash Markets?📉Technical Analysis with Tim Warren · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Let's get into rate hiked fears, absolutely decimating crypto. We'll
0:04
Speaker 1: break it all down for you today. It's going to
0:06
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1:00
Speaker 1: guys are not want to miss this one. It is
1:02
Speaker 1: an awesome one. The first thing I want to do
1:05
Speaker 1: is bring on my infamous trader, mister Tim Warren.
1:09
Speaker 2: How are you men doing good?
1:11
Speaker 3: Paul going to be back on the show.
1:13
Speaker 2: Listen.
1:13
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the FMC meeting yesterday, which
1:17
Speaker 1: was kind of interesting to say the least. But now
1:21
Speaker 1: we've got FED chair Kevin warsh Is announcing that the
1:24
Speaker 1: FED has dropped forward guidance.
1:26
Speaker 2: This was something that came out yesterday.
1:27
Speaker 1: One of the more concerning things to me is that
1:31
Speaker 1: is now out of the window, and also just the
1:34
Speaker 1: fact that we're going to see.
1:36
Speaker 2: Maybe less data. I guess that's a good part.
1:39
Speaker 1: You know, in terms of them less data in the
1:42
Speaker 1: sense of what they used to collect. Now it's going
1:44
Speaker 1: to be more maybe real time data. If you look
1:47
Speaker 1: at the sentiment over on polymarket, people didn't like that
1:51
Speaker 1: at all. So FED rate cut hike or excuse me,
1:55
Speaker 1: FRED rate hikes increase substantially, going from what we're setting
2:00
Speaker 1: around a thirty one thirty percent chance and then spiking
2:03
Speaker 1: up to where we are right now fifty three, So
2:06
Speaker 1: moving aggressively.
2:07
Speaker 2: What did you think about the takeaways? From yesterday's meeting.
2:12
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there are some disappointments, for sure. I
2:14
Speaker 4: think a lot of people were expecting him to come
2:17
Speaker 4: in and be the opposite of Jerome Powell, maybe be
2:20
Speaker 4: more animated, maybe tell us a little more details, maybe
2:23
Speaker 4: come in extremely dubbish, and that's just not what happened.
2:26
Speaker 4: But if you look at some little things. First of all,
2:29
Speaker 4: he's a good political figure. He's gonna he's not the
2:32
Speaker 4: amount of times he went back to read the official
2:34
Speaker 4: statement instead of giving a straight up answer, that's a
2:37
Speaker 4: political move. But when you hear him talk about his
2:41
Speaker 4: relationship with Bessent, that stuck out to me as saying, okay,
2:45
Speaker 4: that is very very interesting. Also, you know, people don't
2:48
Speaker 4: like how many times he said the word, but the
2:50
Speaker 4: task forces and the concept of these task forces working
2:54
Speaker 4: to reevaluate how they collect data in a nutshell, what
2:58
Speaker 4: I took away from and I talked about my video
3:00
Speaker 4: I posted this morning on X actually posted on a
3:03
Speaker 4: lot of platforms.
3:03
Speaker 3: So I think you guys signed it on X.
3:05
Speaker 4: I was sleeping on it, and I was like, you know,
3:07
Speaker 4: if you want to be bearish, you can find ways
3:10
Speaker 4: to turn what he said into barish if you want
3:12
Speaker 4: to be bullish, you can find ways to turn things
3:13
Speaker 4: into bullish. But the reality is what I'm watching, If
3:16
Speaker 4: you put all the pieces together, I think what Kevin
3:18
Speaker 4: worsh is is like this trojan horse into the FED
3:21
Speaker 4: to change it completely. And right now he Avestent and
3:25
Speaker 4: Trump and everybody else in Washington, they're aokay with this
3:29
Speaker 4: initial outburst and initial gut feeling as being bearish and
3:34
Speaker 4: this projection of rate hikes coming.
3:36
Speaker 3: He's fine with that.
3:36
Speaker 4: He's getting rid of Feig guidance. He doesn't want to
3:38
Speaker 4: tell us what's going to happen. He likes not He
3:40
Speaker 4: likes the people not knowing what's going to happen. Because
3:43
Speaker 4: what he's gonna do all along, in my opinion obviously,
3:47
Speaker 4: is he's going to start moving the goalpost and changing
3:50
Speaker 4: the data to what inflation goes into. You know, I've
3:53
Speaker 4: been here with you on this show. We've talked about trueflation.
3:55
Speaker 4: True inflation is sitting lower than two percent of the moment.
3:59
Speaker 4: So when I heard him say there's no reason to
4:01
Speaker 4: change the goal of two percent, well, you don't have
4:03
Speaker 4: to change the goal of two percent if you start
4:05
Speaker 4: changing the data you take in and then change the definitions.
4:09
Speaker 4: The think of what democrats did is back in twenty
4:11
Speaker 4: twenty two when we decided to change the definition of
4:13
Speaker 4: what a recession is, so magically we had no recession
4:15
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two. All you gotta do is change
4:17
Speaker 4: the data, change the details, change the definitions, and you
4:20
Speaker 4: can make.
4:21
Speaker 3: It what you want.
4:22
Speaker 4: I think what I heard worst kind of say yesterday
4:24
Speaker 4: without saying it is that is his trajectory. That's where
4:27
Speaker 4: we see the rest of this year, and he's going
4:29
Speaker 4: to I think rate cuts are coming because you're going
4:31
Speaker 4: to change when we look at inflation.
4:32
Speaker 1: The concern I have, you know, I'm pushing back on
4:35
Speaker 1: that is the idea of instability. You know, because you
4:39
Speaker 1: generally look at the market. I don't think that the
4:41
Speaker 1: FED is really the one bell weather, but it definitely
4:44
Speaker 1: is one of the key.
4:45
Speaker 2: Bell weathers to how a market responds.
4:47
Speaker 1: And this is exactly what we're seeing right now after
4:51
Speaker 1: yesterday's FOMC, meaning almost all assets are down. You've got
4:54
Speaker 1: SpaceX of course correcting rightly so, but you've got Bitcoin
4:57
Speaker 1: falling off. You know, obviously all coins for the most part,
5:02
Speaker 1: I think people were looking for more of a feeling
5:06
Speaker 1: that he was going to give us some sort of
5:10
Speaker 1: at least guidance that he is transparent.
5:13
Speaker 2: I didn't hear that because I'm.
5:15
Speaker 1: Concerned that he's even going to do meetings anymore unless
5:18
Speaker 1: he thinks that it's worthy of meeting. I'm concerned that
5:21
Speaker 1: they end up doing a rate hike and don't think
5:24
Speaker 1: it's worthy of a meeting. And you know, that in
5:26
Speaker 1: itself would be an absolute, you know, I think debacle
5:30
Speaker 1: for the FED. I do agree though, with you on
5:33
Speaker 1: the one thing, and that is that they can change
5:35
Speaker 1: the data, because you can make the data say anything
5:37
Speaker 1: you wanted to say. That's a possibility that could be
5:41
Speaker 1: a little bit of a safety net for him. I
5:43
Speaker 1: want to play a clip for you and then i'll
5:45
Speaker 1: get your comment after that.
5:47
Speaker 2: But let's go to Mark Cudmore.
5:49
Speaker 5: I think he was He was pawkish, and I did
5:52
Speaker 5: not expect it. I, you know, we discuss yesterday. I
5:55
Speaker 5: was pretty open minded. I had no prize because those
5:57
Speaker 5: first confidence but if anything, I thought there might be
5:58
Speaker 5: a douther surprise. But that was very far from the case.
6:01
Speaker 5: So I was really surprised when I, you know, saw
6:03
Speaker 5: all he talked about was inflation.
6:05
Speaker 6: But Essentially this is this is ultimately good for equities.
6:08
Speaker 6: He's restoring credibility to the FED, and he's kind of
6:12
Speaker 6: pointed in the fact the economy is strong. So you know,
6:15
Speaker 6: one of the things we constantly talk about is that
6:17
Speaker 6: if yields go higher because the economy is strong, that's
6:20
Speaker 6: not so bad for stocks. It's when we've got that
6:23
Speaker 6: stagflation impulse that it's more worrying, all.
6:26
Speaker 2: Right, So stagflation definitely more worrying.
6:31
Speaker 1: And that is you know, obviously with rising rates, rising unemployment,
6:35
Speaker 1: that is their dual mandate is you know, control essentially
6:38
Speaker 1: pricing for the American people, and of course jobs is
6:41
Speaker 1: the idea of where the.
6:42
Speaker 2: Jobs market is going. So when you look at what
6:45
Speaker 2: he said.
6:46
Speaker 1: Cut more being kind of more of a hockey's position
6:51
Speaker 1: in what could be in your point, kind of in
6:54
Speaker 1: Dub's clothes playing out if in fact we do get
6:57
Speaker 1: him being able to look at new data coming in
7:02
Speaker 1: and I agree with this treat tweet right here in
7:04
Speaker 1: the sense I see no reason to revisit two percent
7:06
Speaker 1: inflation if you're using a whole new data set, which
7:11
Speaker 1: is what you're proposing, is that he could be using
7:14
Speaker 1: who knows what because we didn't find out yesterday what
7:17
Speaker 1: what he's going to be using. What do you think
7:19
Speaker 1: it's gonna be? What do you think it's going to be?
7:21
Speaker 4: Paul, I have no idea, And I think that's part
7:23
Speaker 4: of the point. Is I think that there's a level
7:25
Speaker 4: like I think I think people are frustrated that they
7:28
Speaker 4: didn't feel like Jerome Powell and the FED gave the
7:30
Speaker 4: American people a lot of information. If you're frustrated with
7:33
Speaker 4: Jerome Powell, you're gonna be exacerbated with Kevin Swirtz. That's
7:37
Speaker 4: that's what he's saying. He's saying, we're gonna give you
7:39
Speaker 4: less and less information. But the reality is he's gonna
7:42
Speaker 4: do it. And you go back to his history, and
7:45
Speaker 4: you go back to Besson's history, and you'll get Trump's history,
7:48
Speaker 4: and you know, people might be on here and say, like, oh,
7:50
Speaker 4: I like Donald Trump. Listen, these guys have a track
7:53
Speaker 4: record of doing what they think is best and doing
7:58
Speaker 4: some crazy things to get there. He's okay with market pipulation,
8:02
Speaker 4: he is. I think I think all three of those
8:05
Speaker 4: gentlemen are a okay. The markets are acting negative right
8:08
Speaker 4: now because guess what's coming up in a couple of
8:11
Speaker 4: months the midterms, and it doesn't matter what people do
8:14
Speaker 4: right now. My business partner, t Shrump, he talks to
8:17
Speaker 4: me about this all the time. We'll hear something really
8:19
Speaker 4: bad happen for Donald Trump or even the Democrat Party,
8:22
Speaker 4: and we'll say, like, oh, that's gonna come back to
8:24
Speaker 4: buy them in the midterms, and Trump and Trump My
8:26
Speaker 4: mind's all the time the say no, it won't because
8:28
Speaker 4: American voters have like goldfish memories, we only think about
8:33
Speaker 4: right in.
8:33
Speaker 3: Our face at this moment.
8:35
Speaker 4: So if we're gonna maybe plunge the stock market, the
8:38
Speaker 4: stock market's overdue for a pullback. If we're gonna get
8:40
Speaker 4: this plunge, go ahead and get it done right now.
8:43
Speaker 4: Then magically change the goalpost on what inflation looks like,
8:45
Speaker 4: start cutting rates in the fall, make the stock market
8:49
Speaker 4: start climbing again, and then Americans will only remember what's
8:51
Speaker 4: happening right in front of them, and all of a sudden,
8:54
Speaker 4: that unpredictability that we hated during the summer, we love
8:57
Speaker 4: what the Fed's doing right now. In the fall, Go
8:59
Speaker 4: vote red is going to be the mantra there. I
9:02
Speaker 4: still you know, through the lens of manipulation and believing
9:05
Speaker 4: that we have a manipulated market, and the evidence is
9:07
Speaker 4: overwhelming that that's the case. This play set, this, this
9:11
Speaker 4: playbook looks about right. And you got to remember here
9:15
Speaker 4: Trump Trump just went after Jome Powell for a year,
9:19
Speaker 4: calling him too late, Palell, too late, Pale, too late, Pal,
9:22
Speaker 4: He's not cutting rates. Trump wants to look good and
9:26
Speaker 4: Powell wasn't making him look good.
9:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you guys a question.
9:31
Speaker 4: What is Worsh's real job. Worsh's real job is not
9:33
Speaker 4: to take care of the Erican people. He got the
9:35
Speaker 4: job because his job is going to make Trump look good.
9:38
Speaker 4: That's his job, whether you want to say, whether we
9:41
Speaker 4: want to say it or not, that's his job.
9:42
Speaker 2: He's gonna yes, well, I do agree with that.
9:44
Speaker 1: I think that that was his jobs figure out a
9:46
Speaker 1: way to make Trump and the administration look good. And
9:49
Speaker 1: you know, I will say this that prior to Powell,
9:52
Speaker 1: we didn't really have these FOMC meetings and you've very
9:55
Speaker 1: rarely heard from the FED, but we didn't have the
9:58
Speaker 1: kind of volatility that we've seen in these markets.
10:01
Speaker 2: Now.
10:01
Speaker 1: Granted, many people would say, well, the Fed's really not
10:03
Speaker 1: there to you know, make a market feel good, but
10:06
Speaker 1: I think we have kind of gotten that way over
10:09
Speaker 1: the power regime, good or bad or indifferent.
10:13
Speaker 2: It definitely has had an effect.
10:14
Speaker 1: And if you look at the bitcoin chart right now,
10:17
Speaker 1: that has happened today. I mean you're looking at an
10:21
Speaker 1: FOMC induced pullback, most likely because of now a rate
10:26
Speaker 1: hike theory that's coming into the market. From a sentiment standpoint,
10:29
Speaker 1: what do you think bitcoin is going to do?
10:32
Speaker 3: You know?
10:32
Speaker 4: So a couple of weeks ago, even on this show,
10:34
Speaker 4: we talked about the by signals coming on bitcoin, and
10:37
Speaker 4: I think I said on this show, I know we
10:39
Speaker 4: said on our channel, but I try to tell you
10:41
Speaker 4: everything here that I tell on my channel as well,
10:43
Speaker 4: and I said that we could get as high as
10:46
Speaker 4: seventy K. There's some support resistance levels, Jude, not support.
10:50
Speaker 4: There were resistance levels up here around seventy k, technically
10:53
Speaker 4: as high as seventy two spending what chart you're looking at.
10:56
Speaker 4: But the statement I made to all of my traders,
10:59
Speaker 4: I said, listen, I'm going to be locking in profits
11:01
Speaker 4: when we touch the Gaussian band.
11:04
Speaker 3: We could keep going higher, but I'm gonna.
11:05
Speaker 4: Make sure to at least take some of those because
11:08
Speaker 4: with these by signals. A bad run is just the
11:12
Speaker 4: Gaussian band. A good run as you get up above
11:15
Speaker 4: the Gaussian band. Guess what we did right here if
11:17
Speaker 4: you look very closely, the last couple of days, we
11:19
Speaker 4: kissed this Gaussian band. Yeah, and now you know, according
11:24
Speaker 4: to yesterday this closed. We actually now have a cell
11:26
Speaker 4: signal on the kryptonite indicator that I have here. We
11:30
Speaker 4: have we're below the Gaussian band, so we don't eat
11:32
Speaker 4: a reversal. We have a red dot. And now the
11:34
Speaker 4: histograms of macde are starting to flow out negative.
11:37
Speaker 3: Once again.
11:38
Speaker 4: We hit our by target. Didn't get as hig as
11:40
Speaker 4: I thought we could have, but we're seeing those cells
11:42
Speaker 4: come back. In one thing, I told people, even when
11:45
Speaker 4: we had these bisignals and we entered longs and again
11:47
Speaker 4: I just made money on a bitcoin long, I told
11:49
Speaker 4: people I'm not out of my short position yet either.
11:51
Speaker 4: That I entered all the way up here towards seventy
11:53
Speaker 4: nine thousand because the charts just weren't showing me that
11:57
Speaker 4: we were in a good position to suggest the bottom
11:59
Speaker 4: with in just yet the daily chart. And I look
12:02
Speaker 4: at the RSI level. This was the big thing. And
12:05
Speaker 4: I can't remember if I was on your show and
12:07
Speaker 4: we discussed it this way or not, but I was
12:09
Speaker 4: hoping we could have one more good wave down Paul.
12:12
Speaker 4: I thought that if we could stay at the rs I,
12:13
Speaker 4: could stay below this low in February, we could have
12:16
Speaker 4: seen the last movement down.
12:17
Speaker 3: But guess we did.
12:18
Speaker 4: We went barely, but we went below that RSI. What
12:21
Speaker 4: this means is we just canceled out daily bullish divergence
12:25
Speaker 4: that we have always seen mark the bottom of the
12:27
Speaker 4: bitcoin bear market. Because of that, I was convinced that's it.
12:31
Speaker 4: Fifty nine K's not the bottom. I still got fifty three.
12:34
Speaker 4: Now I'm looking at fifty three to forty eight as
12:36
Speaker 4: the new expectation lows in the next couple of months.
12:39
Speaker 1: All right, So fifty three to forty eight A lot
12:42
Speaker 1: of things that are going to put some pressure on
12:43
Speaker 1: the market right now. Obviously, if we get a rate hike,
12:46
Speaker 1: that would be I think detrimental to all of crypto.
12:50
Speaker 1: Other things that could play into this. This is something
12:52
Speaker 1: that just came out. Also is now the FED is
12:54
Speaker 1: asking for potential KYC on stable coin users, so this
12:59
Speaker 1: would be interesting. It doesn't necessarily detail as to what
13:03
Speaker 1: level of KYC is going to be involved and to
13:06
Speaker 1: what extent you know, who knows within that? I'm assuming
13:10
Speaker 1: because most of your regular exchanges take KYC anyway, So
13:13
Speaker 1: if you're holding stable here, you're already covered. But if
13:16
Speaker 1: it's on a private wallet, or especially a self custody wallet,
13:20
Speaker 1: I'm curious has how is that going to actually get implemented?
13:24
Speaker 4: Well, and you start getting the dangerous territory there, Paul,
13:27
Speaker 4: where you start to bring up maybe our politicians start
13:30
Speaker 4: talking like, well why not have a CBDC. I know
13:31
Speaker 4: we said no CDC before, but now all of a sudden,
13:34
Speaker 4: well we need to track this information maybe ACDC Like
13:37
Speaker 4: yeah for sure, and that yeah, that headline definitely scared me.
13:40
Speaker 1: One of the assets that would benefit from this if
13:42
Speaker 1: we do get major adoption. Again, if you get something
13:44
Speaker 1: like this, who knows what kind of implementation that would
13:47
Speaker 1: look like. If it's in the bank layer, it wouldn't
13:49
Speaker 1: be a big deal. If it was in the exchange layer,
13:50
Speaker 1: wouldn't be a big deal. But privacy from a self
13:53
Speaker 1: custody sand it would be a big deal. But there's
13:56
Speaker 1: not that much being I would think being held in
13:58
Speaker 1: self custody, you know, on the private component, But Ethereum,
14:02
Speaker 1: of course wins if we see major adoption of sable coins.
14:08
Speaker 1: When you look at the EH chart right now, with
14:09
Speaker 1: all of what's happening with the FOMC, where would you
14:12
Speaker 1: put eight You've got Bitcoin sub fifty potentially on the
14:16
Speaker 1: low side.
14:16
Speaker 2: Where would you put the ethereum.
14:18
Speaker 4: Well, there's two trains of thoughts. I know some people
14:20
Speaker 4: are going to hold to this long term Ethereum's in
14:22
Speaker 4: this long term channel, which this really should I don't
14:25
Speaker 4: know why I've left it green this long That really
14:27
Speaker 4: should be right. I like to dictate my colors there.
14:29
Speaker 4: We're back on support right now.
14:31
Speaker 1: Right.
14:31
Speaker 4: We witched below it here a little bit, but when
14:33
Speaker 4: you zoom in, we haven't closed any weekly candles below
14:36
Speaker 4: that level daily candle or two close below. But I
14:39
Speaker 4: see it doing the same thing bitcoins doing. I see
14:41
Speaker 4: it going sub this level. I told our group even
14:44
Speaker 4: back up here, and we started crashing. I said, hey,
14:46
Speaker 4: watch out for fifteen hundred as a possible level of support.
14:49
Speaker 4: I didn't know if we're going to go going and
14:50
Speaker 4: go it through it or we're going to stop there.
14:52
Speaker 4: We end up stopping almost to the scent at fifteen hundred.
14:56
Speaker 4: But I still have a trajectory down here. This bear
14:59
Speaker 4: flag pattern would suggest that we could still let's see, yeah,
15:03
Speaker 4: this barefrog pattern move this over here would still suggest
15:07
Speaker 4: a move I don't know what I'm even doing, Paul,
15:09
Speaker 4: I apologize. This baarrefrug pattern there we go would suggest
15:13
Speaker 4: that a move down towards twelve sixty is on the table.
15:16
Speaker 4: So Bitcoin to fifty k, I think ethereum to twelve
15:20
Speaker 4: hundred is kind of likely.
15:22
Speaker 3: There's some support.
15:23
Speaker 4: Around thirteen fifty to fourteen hundred, And technically speaking, the
15:27
Speaker 4: only thing that makes me potentially wonder if that's possible
15:30
Speaker 4: is that as we get closer to the end of
15:32
Speaker 4: the bull market, you all are the bear market. Excuse me,
15:35
Speaker 4: You always see bitcoin dominance get even more aggressively bearish
15:40
Speaker 4: because Bitcoin will sell off more egregiously than all coins,
15:43
Speaker 4: including ethereum. So the chart for me suggests a move
15:47
Speaker 4: for Bitcoin to fifty k would be ethereum downe to
15:49
Speaker 4: twelve hundred. But there's that chance ethereum stops around fourteen hundred.
15:54
Speaker 4: People have to remember also, that's obviously a different market
15:56
Speaker 4: than it used to be. But go back and look
15:58
Speaker 4: at ethereum, you know, to twenty twenty two. I was
16:01
Speaker 4: actually doing this with our trading group today, and a
16:05
Speaker 4: lot of coins or bitcoin, alcinns bitcoin, they had these
16:09
Speaker 4: really low bottoms in June of twenty two, and then
16:12
Speaker 4: most of them went just slightly lower in the fall a.
16:15
Speaker 4: Theem was one of the only ones that actually bottomed
16:17
Speaker 4: during the summer, put in a higher low during the
16:20
Speaker 4: four year cycle bottom in November and made its way up,
16:23
Speaker 4: which is a sign again that at the end of
16:26
Speaker 4: the bear market. Egregious selling of ethereum happened earlier and
16:30
Speaker 4: then it kind of halted actually put in a higher low.
16:33
Speaker 4: So for the same reason, I don't want to get
16:36
Speaker 4: too bearished on ethereum just yet, because I think something
16:39
Speaker 4: similar is going to happen where all of a sudden,
16:41
Speaker 4: you can go off my screen here now, all of
16:43
Speaker 4: a sudden Bitcoin plummets and makes people feel really bad
16:46
Speaker 4: versus all coins they already had their blood. They're just
16:49
Speaker 4: kind of like, all right, well, we'll just well limit
16:50
Speaker 4: some of the gains we just had in this last
16:53
Speaker 4: false run, but we don't really need to drop to
16:55
Speaker 4: crazy new lows.
16:57
Speaker 1: One of the things though, Tim thought, I think would
17:00
Speaker 1: have a big impact on the market. And even though
17:03
Speaker 1: we got this today, and that is at least a
17:06
Speaker 1: deal with Iran, you've got an MoU signed here by
17:09
Speaker 1: President Trump and Iran all put into play here. Now granted,
17:13
Speaker 1: I remember, guys, this is a memorandumum understanding. You've got
17:18
Speaker 1: Pakistan there obviously, the Islamic Republic of Iran RCG, and
17:23
Speaker 1: then we're moving into the US with Trump on their
17:26
Speaker 1: point being is that there are some interesting points here.
17:31
Speaker 1: The big one, of course, is this three hundred billion
17:34
Speaker 1: right there, and that is that's crazy.
17:38
Speaker 2: You know.
17:39
Speaker 1: The key here, I guess will be whether or not
17:41
Speaker 1: Iran holds to this MoU. Does it extend into actually
17:46
Speaker 1: keeping the straight open. Oil prices are plummeting as we speak.
17:51
Speaker 1: I think they're sub eighty now, they could be sub
17:53
Speaker 1: seventy by the end of the week. What does this
17:56
Speaker 1: do to you? Because you would think, if that is happening,
18:00
Speaker 1: we would start to say a little bit of adjustment
18:02
Speaker 1: within the crypto markets. But I think I think the
18:04
Speaker 1: FOMC meaning overshadowed this more so and that surplies me
18:09
Speaker 1: a little bit.
18:10
Speaker 2: Did it surprise you?
18:11
Speaker 3: Well?
18:11
Speaker 4: Again, so we go back to the Trojan Horse situation
18:14
Speaker 4: where he needs to come across hawkish, but he's actually dubbsh.
18:17
Speaker 4: But his response to Iran was very political, but he
18:22
Speaker 4: gave a little window of something where he pretty much
18:25
Speaker 4: said that's not factory at the moment, but he said
18:27
Speaker 4: I'm very I can't remember the exact words he chose,
18:30
Speaker 4: it was some of the lines of like, I'm very
18:32
Speaker 4: interested in what happens with this outcome and Iran. And
18:35
Speaker 4: of course he is, because again his job as the
18:37
Speaker 4: Chairman of the Fed is to monitor inflation and right now.
18:41
Speaker 4: In the last I think it was the CPI print,
18:43
Speaker 4: it was shown that the high level sixty percent of
18:47
Speaker 4: the reason why that level was so high was because
18:49
Speaker 4: of oil prices being so high. So this makes his
18:52
Speaker 4: job a lot easier if this war is truly over.
18:54
Speaker 4: As we watched oil prices drop, it's not an immediate,
18:56
Speaker 4: you know, flip the switch. Its gonna be a process
18:59
Speaker 4: of prices coming back down as energy gets cheaper. But
19:04
Speaker 4: it goes right in line with my timeline process of
19:06
Speaker 4: he doesn't need to fix this problem right now. Trump
19:09
Speaker 4: doesn't need a win right now. Trump needs a win
19:13
Speaker 4: in October and right before November. And so that's why
19:17
Speaker 4: I could still see this trojan horse situation really not
19:20
Speaker 4: showing its head until this fall. By the way, right
19:24
Speaker 4: in line with the four Yer cycles. So whether people
19:26
Speaker 4: are for your cyclist or they're waiting for institutions get involved,
19:28
Speaker 4: what I'm saying right now is it looks at the
19:29
Speaker 4: institutions and I'm thinking, you know, the FED and some
19:33
Speaker 4: larger players, they want to kind of manipulate everything until
19:36
Speaker 4: the fall. The fourier cycles, retail og wales don't want
19:39
Speaker 4: to buy into the fall. We're kind of heading for
19:41
Speaker 4: a storm in end of Q three early Q four
19:45
Speaker 4: for the crypto markets to be a perfect tailspin of
19:49
Speaker 4: bullishness to the upside.
19:50
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, and you typically look at how investors play
19:54
Speaker 1: these cycles. Most of the time, summer is an off
19:56
Speaker 1: month for most people. I want to play a clip
19:59
Speaker 1: here because Wilson was talking about where investors are looking
20:03
Speaker 1: now that maybe this war is actually coming to end
20:06
Speaker 1: and take.
20:06
Speaker 2: A look what's the next risk on the horizon.
20:09
Speaker 7: The market was able to get through tariffs, obviously they're
20:12
Speaker 7: looking beyond now the conflict in Iran. Well, I mean,
20:16
Speaker 7: your viewers probably won't like me saying this, but the
20:18
Speaker 7: markets move past the war between the Fed, the Treasury
20:21
Speaker 7: and then the deregulation, they've added over half a trillion
20:24
Speaker 7: dollars of liquidity to the system. So the whole rates
20:27
Speaker 7: argument is a side show to me, It's just a
20:29
Speaker 7: side show. Has the Fed been less dubbish and expected
20:31
Speaker 7: at the beginning of the year including me?
20:33
Speaker 3: Yes?
20:34
Speaker 7: Have they been way more dubbish on balance sheet? Absolutely?
20:37
Speaker 7: What are you going to do going forward? Are you
20:40
Speaker 7: going to be active using the balance sheet and helping
20:44
Speaker 7: funding markets stabilize, which is what the last FED chair did,
20:48
Speaker 7: Jay Powell, which you're still still there, by the way,
20:49
Speaker 7: so they're probably having a conversation about this, so I
20:52
Speaker 7: think they will.
20:54
Speaker 1: Do you think that the market could still hit your
20:56
Speaker 1: eight thousand target for the S and P by the
20:57
Speaker 1: year end if you do see a rotation away from
21:00
Speaker 1: some of the hyperscalers, away from some of the semiconductors.
21:04
Speaker 7: I don't anticipate that this is the end of the
21:06
Speaker 7: AI capex cycle or the end of these stacks working.
21:09
Speaker 7: I'm just saying the relative outperformance doesn't make sense to
21:12
Speaker 7: me given the relative earnings revisions in these other areas.
21:17
Speaker 1: All right, so typical what we'll see Wall Street, right
21:20
Speaker 1: now is a lot more cautiousness or caution in general
21:25
Speaker 1: of how you know, how you would play the market
21:27
Speaker 1: right now. You look at what's happening with Stretch. This
21:30
Speaker 1: was a surprise, just hit an all time low eighty
21:33
Speaker 1: two fifty three on this is crazy?
21:36
Speaker 2: What did you think about this?
21:38
Speaker 3: So here's the thing.
21:39
Speaker 4: I don't actually track this as much as my business partner,
21:42
Speaker 4: Sham does, because I'm not invested in I will hold
21:45
Speaker 4: micro strategy or of course you the STRC. So you know,
21:49
Speaker 4: I've kind of been putting my head on this last
21:51
Speaker 4: two or three days and it's absolutely bloody. But something
21:54
Speaker 4: I also know is that the headlines to make this
21:58
Speaker 4: sound gorish coming from both people who don't like micros
22:02
Speaker 4: strategy to begin with and are praying upon the downfall
22:05
Speaker 4: of it, and then other people who are just known
22:07
Speaker 4: for extreme emotional responses. They you know, a two percent
22:11
Speaker 4: moved the upside, they're saying the bull marks back on
22:12
Speaker 4: a two percent moved to downside, and they're saying the
22:14
Speaker 4: sky is falling. So I think there's a lot more
22:17
Speaker 4: I'm not saying as a good thing. I'm not saying
22:20
Speaker 4: that people holding STRC shouldn't be at least a little concerned.
22:23
Speaker 4: But I just have come accustomed in the last couple
22:26
Speaker 4: of years of doing this to know when people are
22:28
Speaker 4: screaming the sky is falling, you got to look a
22:31
Speaker 4: little bit deeper at what's going on. And I want
22:33
Speaker 4: to see what Michael Sailor and his team kind of
22:35
Speaker 4: say going forward. I think they might sell more bitcoin
22:37
Speaker 4: to help cover some of the losses here. That kind
22:39
Speaker 4: of opened up that Pandora's box. That's part of the
22:42
Speaker 4: reason why I still think Bitcoin's bottom is not in yet.
22:44
Speaker 4: But I'm not ready to declare micro strategy the next
22:49
Speaker 4: FTX or Celsius and go belly up. But I'm also
22:53
Speaker 4: not investing in it either at this time.
22:56
Speaker 1: Other things that are happening in terms of make a
22:59
Speaker 1: major market correct. Right now you have SpaceX dropping in
23:03
Speaker 1: at one hundred and ninety billion from its market cap high. This,
23:07
Speaker 1: of course was after Kramer tweeted, which I thought was
23:09
Speaker 1: interesting that it actually followed. Kramer's position is that he
23:13
Speaker 1: thought that we were going to see this continue to fall. Yeah,
23:17
Speaker 1: what do you make of SpaceX right now? Do you
23:19
Speaker 1: think we're going to see some major rotation out of
23:22
Speaker 1: AI the category? Because SpaceX I still think. I still
23:26
Speaker 1: think is probably one of the leaders in that area,
23:29
Speaker 1: even though Nvidia is up while SpaceX is down.
23:33
Speaker 4: You know, I put a video out on it the
23:35
Speaker 4: night before the IPO launched, and I learned a couple
23:38
Speaker 4: of things in the research that our team did, because
23:40
Speaker 4: like a couple of days before, I was like, oh, guys,
23:42
Speaker 4: IPOs traditionally they open up the early investors take profit,
23:46
Speaker 4: and things sell off. So I told people, like the
23:48
Speaker 4: week before, I was like, oh, don't be surprised. The
23:49
Speaker 4: first forty hours of bullish and then everything sells off.
23:52
Speaker 4: And then in the research that our team did, you
23:55
Speaker 4: learn that. You know, there's people like Elon Musk and
23:57
Speaker 4: other large investors who can't sell any Their shares are
24:01
Speaker 4: not unlocked for I think it's three hundred and sixty
24:03
Speaker 4: six days.
24:03
Speaker 3: Let's just go ahead and call it.
24:04
Speaker 2: There's a lot of insiders that are unlocking in August.
24:07
Speaker 3: That's the point.
24:08
Speaker 4: So there's but there's enough insiders that will be unlocked
24:12
Speaker 4: when they finally have their earnings report, which is expected
24:14
Speaker 4: late July early August that I told our investors that
24:18
Speaker 4: I wasn't investing in early I think my business partner.
24:21
Speaker 4: He bought one share on the Robinhood IPO just to
24:23
Speaker 4: say he did it. But I told everyone look for
24:25
Speaker 4: a crash in August, and an August crash that probably
24:28
Speaker 4: lasts into the fall, to where all those you know,
24:30
Speaker 4: early investors, who some of them are buying for forty
24:33
Speaker 4: dollars a share a year ago, they had to take
24:36
Speaker 4: their profit up around two hundred dollars. They let the
24:39
Speaker 4: price drop back down. I wouldn't be surprised if we
24:41
Speaker 4: saw around one hundred let's call it one ten, but
24:44
Speaker 4: close to one hundred dollars per share by the time
24:47
Speaker 4: it bottoms out. I still think SpaceX is a bright,
24:50
Speaker 4: bright future, but it's gonna have its IPO crash, just
24:53
Speaker 4: like everybody else. They just did some lock ups that
24:56
Speaker 4: are delaying the process, which what this does, obviously, Paul,
25:00
Speaker 4: people like you and me who do this for a living.
25:02
Speaker 4: We do our research and we study this stuff. We'll
25:04
Speaker 4: catch on and be like, Okay, this is why this
25:05
Speaker 4: is happening. How many retail investors out there watch someone
25:09
Speaker 4: on X or YouTube and heard them say it's going
25:11
Speaker 4: to crash early and now it's not crashing, and now
25:14
Speaker 4: they're gonna start flooding in saying I have to get
25:17
Speaker 4: in right now before it's too late, and then they
25:19
Speaker 4: become the ex liquidity you talked about.
25:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, well you've got within all of this. One of
25:24
Speaker 1: the things to watch right now if you kind of
25:26
Speaker 1: consider what's happening in the risk markets is what's going
25:29
Speaker 1: on with hype here. Of course, Garrett jen he sold
25:33
Speaker 1: all of his Hype near its all time high, locking
25:36
Speaker 1: in about two million, a little over two million in profit.
25:39
Speaker 1: He went along on UNI swap and uniswap is something
25:42
Speaker 1: that Standard Charter came out put a ridiculous number on
25:46
Speaker 1: this one. But the point was is that they actually
25:48
Speaker 1: chose UNI swap. When you look at UNI swap right now,
25:52
Speaker 1: which is now for I mean sure it's mode of
25:55
Speaker 1: good fundamentals, but it's moving. So yeah, where would you
25:59
Speaker 1: put uniswap on this?
26:00
Speaker 2: Is this another? Is this the next hyper liquid?
26:05
Speaker 3: Yeah?
26:05
Speaker 4: I think it's too soon to call it the next
26:06
Speaker 4: hyper liquid. I think there are some bullish headlines. But
26:09
Speaker 4: as you look at the chart right now, you know
26:11
Speaker 4: this is not a good look on the daily chart yesterday. Obviously,
26:15
Speaker 4: a big upper wick with a very small candlebody. This
26:18
Speaker 4: is what we would call a shooting star. I'm not
26:21
Speaker 4: a big candle trader by themselves. I like to find
26:24
Speaker 4: confirmation of other things. But that's a bearish candle. You
26:27
Speaker 4: follow that up, though, with a massive bearish candle today.
26:32
Speaker 4: Now you're starting to see the concern playout. There's not
26:34
Speaker 4: an official cell signal yet, but it's close. Let me
26:37
Speaker 4: make sure here. I haven't looked at this today. But
26:40
Speaker 4: if we're below the gosam, okay, we're about the godsy man,
26:42
Speaker 4: which muddies everything up. But we're not in a bull
26:46
Speaker 4: trend right And I like to I like to trade
26:49
Speaker 4: when I get bisignals at lower levels, but I never
26:51
Speaker 4: get crazy with long positions when the major trend is
26:54
Speaker 4: still bearish.
26:55
Speaker 3: And on uniswap, you go all.
26:57
Speaker 4: The way back at least back here into August twenty five,
27:00
Speaker 4: but arguably even back to December of twenty four.
27:02
Speaker 3: Those are lower highs and lower lows right there, Paul.
27:05
Speaker 4: So I'm not gonna start declaring Unie Swap is back
27:09
Speaker 4: or the next hype or the next great anything. And
27:12
Speaker 4: so we at least get back up above four dollars
27:14
Speaker 4: and get out of the bear trend that we're in
27:16
Speaker 4: and again with moves like what we had yesterday. Look
27:18
Speaker 4: at the volume by the way as well, massive volume
27:21
Speaker 4: histogram right here for such a small candle. That means
27:25
Speaker 4: all the bullishness that was mounting up over the last
27:28
Speaker 4: week hit a brick wall of cellars here yesterday, and
27:31
Speaker 4: that's why that's bringing us back down. So I hold
27:34
Speaker 4: Uni swap. I like Uni swap. You know, we got
27:37
Speaker 4: pretty close to calling that hype top as well. By
27:39
Speaker 4: the way, we told our members to look around the
27:41
Speaker 4: eighty dollars mark. Now it looks like we're double top
27:43
Speaker 4: there here. We'll have to see how that plays out.
27:45
Speaker 4: We only got to about seventy seven. But Hype is
27:49
Speaker 4: still definitively in a bowl trend and UNI is still
27:53
Speaker 4: definitively in a bear trend. So I'm not gonna rush
27:57
Speaker 4: to any conclusions to flip flop them and say everyone
28:00
Speaker 4: sell all your hype and go all in on UNI.
28:02
Speaker 3: Just yet.
28:03
Speaker 1: Hey, last up here, Tien, before I let you go
28:05
Speaker 1: all concumulative sell pressure now hitting a considerable wall. You
28:09
Speaker 1: look at this, and what I think really one of
28:12
Speaker 1: the core all coins that we haven't talked about today
28:14
Speaker 1: is Solana, and this is one that we've We've put
28:18
Speaker 1: out a couple videos in general on this one. This one,
28:20
Speaker 1: of course, our team still thinks we're going to see
28:23
Speaker 1: this pushdown below or possibly sub fifty. But what's your
28:27
Speaker 1: analysis on Solana right now? Do you think that in
28:30
Speaker 1: terms of near future through the end of summer, where
28:33
Speaker 1: do you think we could buy this?
28:35
Speaker 3: Well?
28:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is another one. We put out
28:37
Speaker 4: some several levels here. We hit my first one. I
28:40
Speaker 4: told people sixty made cents. We bounced pretty much right
28:43
Speaker 4: on it. And after we hit it, especially what Bitcoin did,
28:47
Speaker 4: I told Mike community, all right, look for it.
28:49
Speaker 3: This is actually scary almost how perfect this was.
28:52
Speaker 4: I said, look for a run up back towards seventy five,
28:55
Speaker 4: seventy six dollars, and then I think.
28:57
Speaker 3: We're going sub closer towards fifty dollars.
29:00
Speaker 4: Now, what's going to be interesting to see is the
29:01
Speaker 4: timeline of how this all plays out, because this is
29:04
Speaker 4: on bitcoin as well. But we're in a falling wedge
29:06
Speaker 4: pattern on Solana. It's not impossible to lose the support
29:09
Speaker 4: level and do something a lot quicker. But I could
29:11
Speaker 4: easily see Solana Solana doesn't. Solana is not in the
29:14
Speaker 4: news right now. There's nothing crazy bullsh about Solona, but
29:16
Speaker 4: there's also nothing crazy bearish, which means a boring formation
29:20
Speaker 4: like a falling wedge pattern could make sense. We just
29:23
Speaker 4: kind of go back and forth here until the fall
29:25
Speaker 4: again October November area. Then we hit that fifty dollars
29:28
Speaker 4: right on support in the peak of this triangle, and
29:31
Speaker 4: then we got our bullish breakout shortly after, like we should.
29:34
Speaker 1: That's the bullush breakout period we're watching for in terms
29:38
Speaker 1: of some of these aults, and there's some things I
29:41
Speaker 1: think that we will see timing wise that because many
29:44
Speaker 1: of these companies, as.
29:45
Speaker 2: You know, the fall is it's either in the spring.
29:48
Speaker 1: Where we see a lot of the announcements, or going
29:51
Speaker 1: into late summer early fall, which is typically what we'll
29:54
Speaker 1: see from you know, projects lights Solana, which you know
29:57
Speaker 1: they've got their big breakpoint event that usually gets a
29:59
Speaker 1: lot of notice. But I'm curious to the extent of
30:03
Speaker 1: how clarity may have an effect on rolling out new
30:06
Speaker 1: products and announcements that it may force the hand on
30:11
Speaker 1: some of these some of these projects to start saying, yeah,
30:13
Speaker 1: we have a deal because now we can talk about
30:15
Speaker 1: it because our NDA is post clarity.
30:18
Speaker 2: So we'll see a lot of that.
30:19
Speaker 1: Hey listen, If you guys want to follow Tim Warren,
30:21
Speaker 1: you can do that over on Tim warren trades at
30:24
Speaker 1: on YouTube directly catch him over there daily and make
30:28
Speaker 1: sure give him a like telling me you came over
30:30
Speaker 1: from PBN and Tim, thanks so much for coming in today.
30:32
Speaker 2: We appreciate it, Paul.
30:41
Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
30:44
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30:47
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