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Choosin' Texas with Bobby Pulido · Pod Save America

0:21
Speaker 1: Welcome to Plot Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Leavitt.
0:26
Speaker 1: I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. We're excited to be
0:32
Speaker 1: here at TripFest.
0:33
Speaker 2: We're going to get into all the big races across
0:36
Speaker 2: the country and here in Texas. Bobby Polito is here.
0:40
Speaker 2: He'll be coming out.
0:43
Speaker 3: Soon.
0:43
Speaker 2: And before we get to the news, if you guys
0:46
Speaker 2: are free tomorrow and you want to help elect Democrats,
0:51
Speaker 2: we will be doing two events we'd love to have
0:53
Speaker 2: you at.
0:53
Speaker 1: We're going to be at.
0:56
Speaker 1: From 1 to 3, we'll be.
0:57
Speaker 2: Joining Vote Save America and the Travis County Democrats for
1:00
Speaker 2: a canvas at Pan American Park in East Austin.
1:05
Speaker 1: So come join us. You don't need to sign up.
1:08
Speaker 5: Just show up.
1:09
Speaker 3: All right.
1:11
Speaker 2: Let's start with the number one Texas Longhorns. And you
1:18
Speaker 2: know who's excited for the game tomorrow?
1:20
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. But you know what?
1:23
Speaker 2: He's going to Tennessee. Um, and he has no plans
1:27
Speaker 2: to come back to Texas, uh, so far. I don't
1:31
Speaker 2: think he's coming back again before, before, uh, before election day. Um,
1:36
Speaker 2: he is however, planning trips to Alabama and Oklahoma.
1:43
Speaker 5: Yeah.
1:44
Speaker 2: I thought I would get some booze there. Um, but
1:48
Speaker 2: no real competitive races in either of those, uh, states.
1:51
Speaker 2: He has no plans to come back here. And, uh, Republicans, uh, meanwhile,
1:56
Speaker 2: here in Texas, Republicans are spending, uh, like the, the
2:00
Speaker 2: equivalent of a, uh, the GDP of like a midsize country, uh,
2:04
Speaker 2: to try to save Ken Paxton, um, and Greg Abbott,
2:08
Speaker 2: and maybe even the Republican majority in the state. Uh, Dan,
2:12
Speaker 2: what do you make of this new deep red state
2:17
Speaker 2: tour that Trump is on?
2:19
Speaker 1: Like, I did not expect.
2:21
Speaker 2: five weeks out or whatever it is from the midterms,
2:23
Speaker 2: Trump to be going to Alabama and Oklahoma?
2:27
Speaker 4: I think we should just begin by saying it's so
2:29
Speaker 4: funny that Trump, that if Trump wants to see the
2:31
Speaker 4: Texas Longhorns, he could have come to Texas, but he
2:34
Speaker 4: doesn't want to get booed like Ted Cruz. So I
2:38
Speaker 4: think Trump looks at every problem and sees the solution
2:43
Speaker 4: as more Trump. So he sees his party cratering the midterms.
2:46
Speaker 4: He's like, I got to get out there. I got
2:47
Speaker 4: to get out there. And his party is trying to
2:49
Speaker 4: steer him into the least damaging places possible, which are
2:52
Speaker 4: the quintessential swing states of Alabama and Oklahoma. And even
2:57
Speaker 4: in Alabama, I actually think he could cause them real
2:59
Speaker 4: problems because he's going to Alabama 2, which is the
3:03
Speaker 4: district that is represented by a Democrat, Shamari Figures, which
3:06
Speaker 4: is one of the majority minority districts that the Supreme
3:08
Speaker 4: Court struck down. This is a district that Trump won
3:11
Speaker 4: by 14 points, but 40% of the electorate in that
3:14
Speaker 4: district is black. And we've seen since post-Kalei huge turnout
3:18
Speaker 4: among black voters. So I think there's a very real
3:20
Speaker 4: chance that Trump could actually, in trying to do no harm,
3:23
Speaker 4: could do real harm even in this very, very deeply
3:26
Speaker 4: red district.
3:26
Speaker 1: Let's hope so. Shout out harm.
3:29
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Senate race here in Texas.
3:33
Speaker 1: You guys have heard about it.
3:36
Speaker 2: Senate Republican Super PAC, is now committed to spending another
3:40
Speaker 2: $ 30 million against James Tallarico in the final weeks. And
3:46
Speaker 2: one Republican source told Punchbowl today that they think they're
3:50
Speaker 2: going to hit $ 200 million all in by the time
3:52
Speaker 2: this race is over. And even though Dems, though, are
3:57
Speaker 2: getting outspent everywhere, here in Texas, they are taking James
4:02
Speaker 2: Tallarico's small but persistent polling lead seriously. And last night,
4:08
Speaker 2: Thursday night, they launched a new super PAC called Texas Forever.
4:13
Speaker 1: So cavalry's coming. Love it.
4:16
Speaker 2: Senate Republican PAC spent more than $ 20 million supporting John
4:20
Speaker 2: Cornyn in the primary.
4:22
Speaker 1: Did not work.
4:24
Speaker 2: Do we even think that $ 200 million can rehabilitate a
4:28
Speaker 2: candidate like Paxton, who most voters here do know extremely well?
4:34
Speaker 4: Well, let's just ask people from Texas that question. How
4:36
Speaker 4: many ads would you have to see to change your
4:39
Speaker 4: mind about Ken Paxton? And is there enough time to
4:42
Speaker 4: run those ads before the heat death of the universe?
4:46
Speaker 1: How much would they have to pay you personally?
4:48
Speaker 6: Right.
4:49
Speaker 4: So there was a focus group. Kristen Soltis Anderson ran
4:54
Speaker 4: this focus group, friend of the show. And she had
4:57
Speaker 4: 12 2024 Trump voters who were either considering Tallarico or undecided.
5:04
Speaker 4: And she asked, what is the first word that comes
5:06
Speaker 4: to mind when you think of either candidate?
5:08
Speaker 3: And they were not totally sold on James Tallarico.
5:11
Speaker 4: But these are the words that they said for Paxton. Crooked, criminal, crook, crooked, bad, immoral, disgusting, corrupt,
5:21
Speaker 4: morally corrupt, and womanizer.
5:24
Speaker 1: You know, they're on the fence.
5:26
Speaker 4: You can, you can do a lot of good with
5:28
Speaker 4: an ad campaign for a new restaurant. It doesn't work
5:31
Speaker 4: as well when everybody's been there and gotten food poisoning.
5:37
Speaker 2: I mean, I assume all the money is just going
5:38
Speaker 2: to go. It's going to be hard to prop up Paxton,
5:40
Speaker 2: but it's probably just going to, it's going to be
5:42
Speaker 2: Tallarico attack ads. Um, Speaking of Tallarico, I saw that
5:47
Speaker 2: right here on this stage Thursday, he challenged Paxton to
5:51
Speaker 2: a debate on Fox News. No dice, no takers for
5:59
Speaker 2: that debate from Paxton. Tallarico did call Paxton's choice low-T. Tommy,
6:06
Speaker 2: do you think there's any chance that Paxton takes the
6:11
Speaker 2: bait at some point? you know, considering, like, at least
6:14
Speaker 2: Fox News is friendlier territory. And if you're Tallarico, you're
6:19
Speaker 2: the Tallarico campaign, do you keep pushing this challenge, like,
6:22
Speaker 2: maybe by going on Fox?
6:24
Speaker 1: Or is that not the best use of time?
6:26
Speaker 7: I think for them, there were, like, a couple pieces
6:28
Speaker 7: to the strategy. The first was, how do we get
6:31
Speaker 7: through this interview at the Texas Tribune Fest?
6:35
Speaker 1: And there's a couple ways you can do it.
6:37
Speaker 7: You can come in knowing that there's a bunch of
6:39
Speaker 7: national press here, knowing that they're going to write up
6:41
Speaker 7: some headline about what you say, and you kind of
6:43
Speaker 7: white-knuckle it and hope that the headlines are the best
6:46
Speaker 7: version of your response to attacks from Republicans about your record,
6:50
Speaker 7: or you walk up on stage with a bucket full
6:53
Speaker 7: of blood and you throw chum in the water, and
6:55
Speaker 7: that's exactly what they did here with this debate thing, saying, like,
6:57
Speaker 7: I'm going to debate Ken Paxton and we're going to
6:59
Speaker 7: do it on Fox News. Not that you're all fish
7:01
Speaker 7: or anything. No, the press are fish. And it worked
7:03
Speaker 7: beautifully with the National Press Corps. Like, that was the
7:05
Speaker 7: headline he got. And they followed up today with this
7:08
Speaker 7: video of Tallarico... calling paxton's number and leaving in a
7:11
Speaker 7: voicemail to invite him and it was all very clever
7:13
Speaker 7: and i think well executed i think bigger picture when
7:17
Speaker 7: your opponent is like his whole message against you is
7:20
Speaker 7: that you're a wimp and you're low t and your
7:22
Speaker 7: rejoinder is like all right bitch debate me on fox
7:25
Speaker 7: news like it's a home game for you that's a
7:27
Speaker 7: pretty good way to respond um and do i think
7:30
Speaker 7: it'll happen probably not um if it does like i
7:34
Speaker 7: think talrico can hold his own but we should just
7:37
Speaker 7: You think?
7:38
Speaker 1: Well, but at the end of the day, at the.
7:40
Speaker 7: End of the day, Fox News is Fox News, and
7:42
Speaker 7: they are an extension of the MAGA media machine, and
7:46
Speaker 7: that is true for Brett Baer, who would host the debate,
7:48
Speaker 7: because we all, I think, saw pictures of Brett and
7:51
Speaker 7: his lovely wife at the state dinner at the White
7:53
Speaker 7: House two nights ago, right? Like, he's very much, you know,
7:55
Speaker 7: people in D.C. treat some Fox News hosts like they
7:58
Speaker 7: are straight news men and women, when in reality, they're
8:01
Speaker 7: all sort of working for the same master. But I
8:03
Speaker 7: think it was a smart play. I think it's something
8:04
Speaker 7: he'll probably repeat. Tyler Rico will probably repeat. But I'm
8:07
Speaker 7: not sure it'll be a focus. I'm skeptical that it'll happen.
8:10
Speaker 7: It's pretty extraordinary, right? Because Paxton needs the debate. He
8:16
Speaker 7: needs the help of a debate. The fact that they
8:19
Speaker 7: are so.
8:19
Speaker 2: That's if he performs at the debate in a way
8:23
Speaker 2: that resembles a human.
8:25
Speaker 3: Well, if you trust it, right.
8:26
Speaker 4: If you believe that Paxton is a little bit behind
8:31
Speaker 4: Tallarico based on all the polls that we've been seeing
8:33
Speaker 4: over and over again, he's got to do something to
8:36
Speaker 4: change it. And the fact that he's so, he is so,
8:39
Speaker 4: has so little confidence in his ability to win that
8:42
Speaker 4: kind of an argument that even from behind, usually the
8:45
Speaker 4: winning candidate, the candidate ahead is not the one demanding
8:47
Speaker 4: an opportunity to have a big stage in which they
8:49
Speaker 4: face the opponent.
8:50
Speaker 3: That's what a challenger does.
8:52
Speaker 2: I think he should go on, I think Tallarico should
8:54
Speaker 2: go on like Jesse Waters' show and do the challenge
8:56
Speaker 2: there too.
8:57
Speaker 1: And then you get a win.
8:59
Speaker 3: Take the Jesse Waters challenge.
9:00
Speaker 7: Yeah.
9:00
Speaker 1: It's all about getting attention. You know what I mean?
9:02
Speaker 7: Like the, the, throwing out the debate idea was a
9:04
Speaker 7: gambit to get attention.
9:05
Speaker 1: It worked.
9:06
Speaker 7: Going on Fox News, it'll get you attention. I mean,
9:08
Speaker 7: it's always, to debate, the version of the interview you're
9:11
Speaker 7: going to get on Fox News is likely to be combative,
9:15
Speaker 7: and maybe that's a good thing, because your supporters like it. Like,
9:17
Speaker 7: I watched the debate, the interview Abdul El-Sayed did with
9:20
Speaker 7: Jesse Waters, and I kind of winced a bunch of times,
9:22
Speaker 7: and I was like, I don't know about that. But
9:23
Speaker 7: then I went out to Detroit, and he did a
9:25
Speaker 7: town hall, and I saw people yelling to the stage.
9:28
Speaker 1: You whooped his ass, Abdul! You know, so, like, people
9:31
Speaker 1: liked it. Do you think.
9:32
Speaker 7: tell me that talrico wants the debate i think so
9:35
Speaker 7: i mean i if i had the opportunity to stand
9:38
Speaker 7: physically side by side with ken paxton and talk about
9:40
Speaker 7: my record.
9:41
Speaker 1: I would do it every day.
9:42
Speaker 2: Talk about mogging um let's talk about the governor's race
9:46
Speaker 2: uh it wasn't that long ago that uh national democrats
9:50
Speaker 2: and media types were saying that greg abbott was a
9:52
Speaker 2: lock not us though we talked to gina you know
9:54
Speaker 2: it was a long time ago.
9:56
Speaker 1: And now, she's, yeah, we were ahead of the game there.
10:00
Speaker 1: It happens once in a while.
10:01
Speaker 4: Did we see the pulse coming, or did we change
10:03
Speaker 4: the pulse?
10:04
Speaker 1: We don't know.
10:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So, Abbott's running scared now, and one way
10:11
Speaker 2: you can tell is he has completely changed his tune
10:14
Speaker 2: from wanting Texas to be a, quote, epicenter of AI
10:17
Speaker 2: development a year ago and now he's imposing a data
10:22
Speaker 2: center moratorium or at least on new permits. Um, now that, uh,
10:26
Speaker 2: we're getting close to election day.
10:27
Speaker 1: Uh, love it.
10:28
Speaker 2: What do you make of Abbott's data center pivot? And
10:32
Speaker 2: why do you think the guy who won his race
10:33
Speaker 2: by 11 points last time around is now in such
10:37
Speaker 2: a tight race this time?
10:38
Speaker 4: Yeah. So I think a lot of Republicans have been
10:41
Speaker 4: caught off guard by the backlash to data centers. Uh,
10:46
Speaker 4: I can see it being an especially tough issue for
10:48
Speaker 4: someone like Greg Abbott. The latest data is that the
10:52
Speaker 4: request for power for these new data centers in Texas
10:56
Speaker 4: would require five times as much power as is currently
10:59
Speaker 4: peak demand in Texas in a state that, I mean,
11:01
Speaker 4: you all will tell me if I'm wrong.
11:04
Speaker 3: Have questions, concerns, lingering.
11:06
Speaker 4: Doubts about Greg Abbott's ability to manage the electric grid?
11:12
Speaker 3: The other... Sure.
11:13
Speaker 2: And the.
11:14
Speaker 4: The other part of this too is, so it's not
11:17
Speaker 4: just that people really don't like the idea of having
11:19
Speaker 4: a data center in their neighborhood. You think about the
11:21
Speaker 4: kind of people that are like maybe older homeowners that
11:25
Speaker 4: might be really bothered by something like this. That's where
11:27
Speaker 4: Greg Abbott has won in the past. That's the one
11:29
Speaker 4: group where Paxton does okay. And an older homeowner is
11:33
Speaker 4: also the kind of person who shows up at a
11:35
Speaker 4: town meeting, fills out the form to provide their feedback,
11:38
Speaker 4: doesn't let something go and might change their mind about
11:41
Speaker 4: when Hinojosa is the one who came out for a
11:43
Speaker 4: moratorium first. I think Greg Abbott wants this to be
11:46
Speaker 4: a pivot. In reality, looking at what he's doing, he
11:50
Speaker 4: is saying that there is a pause. He is allowing
11:53
Speaker 4: a process to unfold that could allow him to have
11:55
Speaker 4: basically complete flexibility after the election in November to either
12:00
Speaker 4: return to the policy as it was or paper over
12:03
Speaker 4: it with some sort of cosmetic changes and allow it
12:05
Speaker 4: to continue. So I think he's just trying to get
12:08
Speaker 4: through this without losing people for whom this could be
12:10
Speaker 4: a deciding issue.
12:12
Speaker 2: Um, we should talk about, uh, you know, host's message.
12:14
Speaker 2: She is running an ad, uh, where a person who
12:17
Speaker 2: attended the January 6th rally, um, says she's voting against
12:21
Speaker 2: Abbott because he's bought and paid for by the billionaires
12:24
Speaker 2: and the corporations lost to Jay Sixer.
12:27
Speaker 3: Oh, they're, they're a famously impressionable bunch.
12:32
Speaker 2: Um, and she's running another ad pushing back on the,
12:34
Speaker 2: on the two woke attacks with a page from the
12:36
Speaker 2: Republican script saying my pronouns are mom, Texan, and soon
12:40
Speaker 2: to be governor.
12:41
Speaker 1: Uh, Good ad. Good ad.
12:45
Speaker 2: Tommy, what do you think of how Hinojosa has positioned
12:48
Speaker 2: herself and her strategy in general?
12:50
Speaker 1: Sure.
12:50
Speaker 7: I was talking to a guy named Matt Angle earlier
12:52
Speaker 7: today who runs the Lone Star Project. He's a long-term
12:55
Speaker 7: Democratic fan. Some fans out there. He said one of
12:59
Speaker 7: his rules for running successfully as a Democrat in Texas
13:03
Speaker 7: is don't get caught being a liberal. And I think
13:06
Speaker 7: Gina is... executing on that strategy. I think, you know,
13:09
Speaker 7: as much as we all loved Beto and were inspired
13:12
Speaker 7: by his campaign, I think, you know, there was, he
13:15
Speaker 7: got a lot of national media attention. I think he
13:16
Speaker 7: became kind of like a national media darling, um, and
13:20
Speaker 7: seen as like the great hope of the democratic party.
13:23
Speaker 7: And that probably hurt him back here. And she's, she's
13:25
Speaker 7: not going to make that mistake. I think Gina has
13:27
Speaker 7: a tougher race because, you know, Greg Abbott is not
13:30
Speaker 7: the most exciting candidate. He doesn't have a lot of Riz,
13:33
Speaker 7: but he's got a lot of money. and a good
13:35
Speaker 7: ground game that's sort of operating year round. So he's
13:37
Speaker 7: way tougher than Ken Paxton. And so her strategy is
13:42
Speaker 7: basically to win about 60% of the Latino vote, to
13:46
Speaker 7: blow it out in the five big urban counties, and
13:51
Speaker 7: then to get like double digits with independents and then
13:54
Speaker 7: peel off as many kind of rural Republicans as she
13:56
Speaker 7: possibly can. And the two ways they're trying to do
13:59
Speaker 7: that is through issues. The first is education. So Abbott
14:02
Speaker 7: has a bunch of donors that are big charter school supporters.
14:05
Speaker 7: It's one of his, that guy, Jeff Yass. He's like
14:08
Speaker 7: TikTok CEO or something, right? He's a TikTok investor.
14:11
Speaker 4: And at the state dinner the other night, they just
14:13
Speaker 4: listed him on the, he's the guy who convinced Trump to.
14:18
Speaker 1: Save TikTok. And so he just says, Jeff Yass, TikTok. Okay, yeah, great.
14:23
Speaker 1: So Jeff Yass is one of them. And so, you know,
14:25
Speaker 1: he gives Abbott a bunch of money.
14:27
Speaker 7: Surprise, surprise, all of a sudden money is getting routed
14:30
Speaker 7: from public schools to charter schools. And that means that
14:34
Speaker 7: schools are closing in these communities. You've got 150 school
14:37
Speaker 7: districts in Texas.
14:39
Speaker 1: The kids are going four days a week. That's crazy
14:41
Speaker 1: to me. Crazy. Awesome.
14:45
Speaker 7: And then, you know, like obviously it's like infuriating for parents,
14:48
Speaker 7: but then also if you live in that community, like
14:49
Speaker 7: you're losing the culture, you're losing Friday night lights football.
14:52
Speaker 7: You're the biggest employer in the areas shutting down in
14:55
Speaker 7: some cases. So that's an area where she's really targeting
14:57
Speaker 7: like MAGA moms who are pissed about this issue. And
15:00
Speaker 7: then the data center issue is another like big opportunity.
15:03
Speaker 7: There's a group called Breaking Ranks or Break Ranks, which
15:07
Speaker 7: is a bunch of like, you know, rock ribbed Republicans,
15:10
Speaker 7: conservatives in rural areas who are furious about data centers.
15:14
Speaker 7: And Gina has gone and met with them and heard
15:18
Speaker 7: them out and made all this really compelling content with them.
15:20
Speaker 7: And she's hoping to like get some of those voters
15:23
Speaker 7: because if you can flip somebody, that's worth two votes
15:25
Speaker 7: as opposed to just turning someone else out.
15:28
Speaker 1: And so it's a, you know, it's a tall order.
15:30
Speaker 7: Um, I think someone told me today, like he thinks
15:34
Speaker 7: Gina's running dollar for dollar, the best campaign in the state.
15:38
Speaker 7: He's just worried she's going to run out of dollars
15:40
Speaker 7: because you gotta do a lot of things. You gotta
15:42
Speaker 7: turn out a lot of voters in big media markets.
15:45
Speaker 7: You gotta convince Latinos on the border. You have to, uh,
15:48
Speaker 7: reach these rural voters. So it's tough, but you know,
15:50
Speaker 7: she's running a smart campaign.
15:53
Speaker 4: I agree with that 100%. She is running one of
15:55
Speaker 4: the best campaigns, I think, not just in the state,
15:57
Speaker 4: but in the country. And the reason that I like
15:59
Speaker 4: it so much is it's so often Democrats in red
16:01
Speaker 4: states run to lose by less than the person who
16:03
Speaker 4: ran before them.
16:04
Speaker 3: And she is being aggressive. She is taking bold stances.
16:08
Speaker 4: She's getting out in front on issues like data centers,
16:11
Speaker 4: flock cameras. She's doing these ads like this. She's just being,
16:14
Speaker 4: she is playing to win because she knows that the
16:16
Speaker 4: only way that a Democrat is going to win the
16:18
Speaker 4: governorship in Texas is to run a very high-variance strategy
16:22
Speaker 4: to take real risk, and she's doing that.
16:23
Speaker 1: And that's like a model for what.
16:25
Speaker 4: Democrats should be doing around the country in these places
16:28
Speaker 4: we haven't run governance races in a quarter century.
16:31
Speaker 2: So there are a lot of House races in play
16:33
Speaker 2: here as well. As you'll recall, Republicans famously kicked off
16:37
Speaker 2: the country's redistricting wars here in Texas last year because
16:42
Speaker 2: Donald Trump demanded more House Republican seats, except now a
16:46
Speaker 2: bunch of the new districts.
16:48
Speaker 1: that they.
16:48
Speaker 2: Drew to elect Republicans are competitive anyway. We'll be talking
16:52
Speaker 2: to Bobby Polito about his race against Monica de la
16:54
Speaker 2: Cruz in the 15th district. There's an open seat in
16:57
Speaker 2: the 35th around San Antonio where Democrat Johnny Garcia is
17:01
Speaker 2: running against Monica de la Cruz's brother, Carlos. In the 23rd,
17:05
Speaker 2: Katie Padilla Stout is working to beat that absolute lunatic,
17:10
Speaker 2: Brandon Herrera. And we've got an emerging race in the
17:14
Speaker 2: 11th where our own Vote Save America recruit, Claire Reynolds,
17:18
Speaker 2: jumped into the race against August Pfluger and has a
17:20
Speaker 2: really good shot. Dan, it's too early to tell, of course,
17:24
Speaker 2: but how much of what we are seeing in the
17:27
Speaker 2: House races here is, and the shift towards Democrats, is
17:31
Speaker 2: due to the national environment? And how much do you
17:33
Speaker 2: think it's something specifically? changing about the views of Texas
17:38
Speaker 2: voters and different demographic groups of Texas?
17:41
Speaker 4: Obviously the biggest factor in Texas and everywhere else is
17:45
Speaker 4: the fact that the Trump, the president is incredibly unpopular.
17:48
Speaker 4: He has launched an incredibly stupid war that everyone hates.
17:50
Speaker 4: It's raised gas prices above $ 4 a gallon and diesel
17:53
Speaker 4: above $ 7 a gallon and made interest rates and mortgage
17:56
Speaker 4: rates at 7%.
17:56
Speaker 1: Like that is everything that's driving everything.
17:58
Speaker 4: But the forces that are sort of causing the Republicans
18:02
Speaker 4: to possibly bottom out are magnified here in Texas because
18:06
Speaker 4: the two groups who Trump is losing the most ground
18:10
Speaker 4: with across the country have the greatest concentration in Texas.
18:14
Speaker 4: It's Latino voters who have abandoned Trump in droves. We've
18:17
Speaker 4: seen that not just in polls. We've seen that in
18:19
Speaker 4: special election results here in Texas. And it's working class
18:23
Speaker 4: white women. And so here you have, Texas is a
18:26
Speaker 4: state where 30% of voting eligible population is Latino. We
18:31
Speaker 4: expect a quarter of the electorate to be Latino. that
18:33
Speaker 4: shift is going to cause huge, it's a huge problem
18:36
Speaker 4: for Republicans that you're not seeing in other states because
18:40
Speaker 4: here you have both a large working class white population
18:43
Speaker 4: and a large Latino population.
18:44
Speaker 1: And that is sort of, all.
18:46
Speaker 4: The suburbanites and all this stuff, Trump lost those years before.
18:49
Speaker 1: These are the ones he's losing now.
18:50
Speaker 4: And so that's why this is a generational opportunity for
18:52
Speaker 4: Democrats to win Texas.
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22:28
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to have more news in a bit,
22:30
Speaker 1: but we have a game first.
22:32
Speaker 5: And we're back.
22:35
Speaker 4: We come from the land of California to study your ways. Brisket,
22:40
Speaker 4: solar power, plastic straws. There is much for us to learn,
22:47
Speaker 4: but where Texas truly stands apart these days is in
22:50
Speaker 4: your main renewable resource, shocking political scandals. And so it's
22:56
Speaker 4: time for a game we're calling Two Scandals and a Lie,
22:59
Speaker 4: Remember the Alibi.
23:04
Speaker 1: Here's how it works.
23:06
Speaker 4: I'm going to read my boys here about three scandals,
23:08
Speaker 4: two of which are real, one of which we made up.
23:11
Speaker 3: You have to identify the lie.
23:13
Speaker 1: Here we go.
23:15
Speaker 4: First up, A, stole a $ 1, 000 Montblanc pen from a
23:19
Speaker 4: security bin. at a courthouse metal detector and was caught
23:22
Speaker 4: on video. Next, B, said while purchasing ham for target
23:25
Speaker 4: practice was expensive, it was still cheaper than a homeless
23:29
Speaker 4: person while firing a gun at a ham. Or C,
23:33
Speaker 4: once gave a sermon at his own church in which
23:35
Speaker 4: he revealed his struggle to forgive Jesus for being Jewish.
23:40
Speaker 1: Oh my God.
23:41
Speaker 7: Which did we make up? I'm guessing B, but it's believable.
23:47
Speaker 7: All of the above is not an option?
23:49
Speaker 1: No, it is not. These are sincere. There's no tricks. Okay.
23:52
Speaker 1: I kind of think it's the church one, but I
23:54
Speaker 1: don't know.
23:57
Speaker 3: Dan?
23:58
Speaker 5: Decide.
23:59
Speaker 1: The ham is just so specific. Have you been inside
24:02
Speaker 1: Lovett's brain recently? Let's go with the church.
24:06
Speaker 3: That's right.
24:07
Speaker 4: That is the one we made up. The ham, obviously,
24:09
Speaker 4: Ken Paxton is the pen. The ham was Brandon Herrera
24:14
Speaker 4: for Texas 23rd in a YouTube video. So he stole
24:18
Speaker 4: the ham to shoot at the ham? No, no, he
24:20
Speaker 4: purchased the ham. He bought the ham. He bought the ham,
24:22
Speaker 4: shot the ham. Yeah, shooting the ham was fine. It
24:25
Speaker 4: was the homeless person. Poor use of ham, but sure.
24:28
Speaker 4: Next up, called on his social media followers to vote
24:31
Speaker 4: in a poll asking whether Jews or Muslims are the
24:33
Speaker 4: bigger threat to America. B, posted a late night video
24:37
Speaker 4: of himself railing against the perverted left, recorded what was
24:39
Speaker 4: from very clearly inside a strip club. Or C, said
24:43
Speaker 4: that a gun-rageous dummy's empty head was full of mush
24:48
Speaker 4: Much like the average Austin feminist.
24:52
Speaker 1: Ooh. I think some of them are here. I feel
24:57
Speaker 1: like these are all Brendan Herrera, right? Yeah, they sound
24:59
Speaker 1: like it. The first one I know is right. I
25:03
Speaker 1: don't know about the next two. What do you think?
25:06
Speaker 4: Is it the strip club or is it the mushy-headed
25:10
Speaker 4: Austin feminist?
25:11
Speaker 7: I'm guessing he wasn't streaming from a strip club, so
25:13
Speaker 7: I'll say that was fake.
25:16
Speaker 3: That's correct.
25:17
Speaker 5: Okay.
25:18
Speaker 4: Actually, the poll between bigger threat, Jews or Muslims, was
25:22
Speaker 4: Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate Beau French.
25:26
Speaker 1: I mix those two up sometimes.
25:27
Speaker 4: And yes, the Austin feminist comment was from Brandon Herrera.
25:33
Speaker 3: Next up. Oh, bonus question. Bonus question.
25:36
Speaker 4: Herrera filmed himself firing a gun at bottles of ranch dressing,
25:39
Speaker 4: and after they exploded, rubbing ranch dressing on himself and
25:42
Speaker 4: declaring that the ranch would make him.
25:43
Speaker 3: Irresistible, to whom.
25:48
Speaker 3: Who would be irresistible to a ranch-covered Brandon Herrera? The answer,
25:57
Speaker 3: fat bitches. Don't, I'm just reading it.
26:06
Speaker 1: Don't boo vote, that was a good. Yeah, don't boo vote.
26:09
Speaker 4: Next up, use campaign donations to pay for his wife's
26:12
Speaker 4: hair extensions, horse breeder, and psychic visits. In a social
26:17
Speaker 4: media post asked, if you believe Harris's policies are better
26:19
Speaker 4: for Americans than Trump's policies, is the poll ignorant, a liar, retarded,
26:25
Speaker 4: or gay? Or C, was impeached in part over $ 20, 000
26:30
Speaker 4: worth of kitchen countertops?
26:34
Speaker 3: Kitchen countertops, corrupt kitchen countertops.
26:37
Speaker 1: I think that's right.
26:39
Speaker 3: Is it the, which is it? What do you think?
26:41
Speaker 1: I guess an A.
26:42
Speaker 4: Okay.
26:43
Speaker 1: I don't even remember what A was.
26:46
Speaker 3: It was the donations for the psychic. And you're right.
26:49
Speaker 3: It was Beau French with the pole. And it was
26:53
Speaker 3: Ken Paxton.
26:55
Speaker 4: The House articles allege that Austin real estate developer Nate
26:57
Speaker 4: Paul paid for those countertops.
27:00
Speaker 1: I bet they were fucking ugly too. Beau French really
27:04
Speaker 1: loves doing these poles, huh? Yeah, he just wants to
27:07
Speaker 1: get a vibe check on the people. Yeah.
27:10
Speaker 3: And that's two scandals and a lie, colon, remember the alibi.
27:14
Speaker 1: Wow. All right.
27:22
Speaker 2: Well, Texas isn't the only place freaking out Republicans right now.
27:26
Speaker 2: We are now a little over five weeks from Election Day.
27:29
Speaker 2: And here's the latest headline from the best in the
27:32
Speaker 2: business forecasters at Cook Political Report. GOP on track to
27:36
Speaker 2: lose House majority. as 15 race ratings shift toward Dems.
27:41
Speaker 1: That was today. There we go. Standing ovation for the
27:48
Speaker 1: Cook Political Report, for those.
27:49
Speaker 4: Of you listening.
27:49
Speaker 1: A bunch of Dave Wasserman fans here. Yeah.
27:52
Speaker 2: Okay, so they say that the most likely outcome at
27:55
Speaker 2: this point is that Democrats pick up anywhere from 5
27:58
Speaker 2: to 15 House seats, which even at the low end
28:01
Speaker 2: would mean no more Speaker Mike Johnson.
28:03
Speaker 1: What?
28:09
Speaker 2: Dan, it seems like this is where money really makes
28:14
Speaker 2: the difference at the end of a campaign like this
28:17
Speaker 2: where suddenly there's a bunch of seats potentially in play
28:21
Speaker 2: that neither side really thought were going to be the.
28:23
Speaker 1: Most competitive districts.
28:25
Speaker 2: If you are sitting at the DCCC right now or
28:29
Speaker 2: an affiliated super PAC, how are you making decisions about
28:33
Speaker 2: where to invest in the final stretch knowing that you
28:37
Speaker 2: can't do everything?
28:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can tell the Republicans know the House is
28:41
Speaker 4: gone because they've moved much of their money to districts
28:44
Speaker 4: that Trump won by 10 to 15 points. So there's
28:47
Speaker 4: three districts that Trump won by 15 points that they're
28:50
Speaker 4: investing in right here in Texas. They're doing all across
28:51
Speaker 4: the country. And the goal here is not to preserve
28:54
Speaker 4: the majority. It's to limit the size of the Democratic
28:56
Speaker 4: majority to make it easier for them to potentially get
28:58
Speaker 4: it back in 2028 or 2030. So this is where
29:02
Speaker 4: having basically unlimited money matters, because it allows the Republicans
29:06
Speaker 4: to play in a whole bunch of races to shore
29:07
Speaker 4: them up that Democrats cannot. We do not have that money.
29:09
Speaker 4: So Democrats have to be incredibly disciplined about how to
29:11
Speaker 4: do it. And it's like, we want to win as
29:14
Speaker 4: many seats as possible. We want to send, we want
29:16
Speaker 4: the largest majority possible. It allows us to do the
29:18
Speaker 4: most stuff. It also sends the most powerful message to
29:21
Speaker 4: the country, the post-Trump Republican Party, to the CEOs, law firms,
29:25
Speaker 4: media companies who have kowtowed to Trump that politics has
29:28
Speaker 4: changed in America. But you, Hakeem Jeffries is Speaker of
29:34
Speaker 4: whether we have a one-seat majority or a 50-seat majority.
29:37
Speaker 4: And so you have to be very disciplined how you
29:39
Speaker 4: spend your money. And if I was there, the way
29:42
Speaker 4: I would think about it is, I think you can
29:46
Speaker 4: assume that given this political environment, Democrats will win all
29:49
Speaker 4: nine seats that Kamala Harris won.
29:51
Speaker 1: They currently have Republicans.
29:53
Speaker 4: And some of those are, we're already going by a
29:55
Speaker 4: lot because of the seats in California that Gavin Newsom redistricted.
30:00
Speaker 4: and then as you think about where are you going
30:01
Speaker 4: to place your bets in other races around the country?
30:03
Speaker 4: Like you're going to have to, there's a, there's a
30:05
Speaker 4: number of seats. I think it's 11 that are in
30:06
Speaker 4: districts that Trump won by less than five points. And
30:08
Speaker 4: some of those are, he won by like 0.1% like
30:10
Speaker 4: in or 0.02% like in Virginia two or Virginia one.
30:14
Speaker 4: I can't remember which. And so where I would place
30:17
Speaker 4: my bets is I would look very heavily at districts
30:21
Speaker 4: of the following kind. One with large Latino populations. This
30:23
Speaker 4: is where there's the greatest possible swing in the electorate.
30:26
Speaker 4: So I would look very, I would obviously invest a
30:27
Speaker 4: lot here in Texas, but also in Florida, uh, Because prior,
30:30
Speaker 4: up until a few weeks ago, you'd seen this real
30:31
Speaker 4: split between how the Latino vote around the country was
30:34
Speaker 4: performing and how it was performing in Florida. But that
30:37
Speaker 4: has changed basically since gas prices went up even higher.
30:40
Speaker 4: And so now there are districts like Florida 27 and
30:42
Speaker 4: Florida 13 that were thought to be likely Republican that
30:46
Speaker 4: are now very well within play. Florida 27 is Maria
30:50
Speaker 4: Elvira Salazar, who ran the ad attacking Trump over immigration.
30:54
Speaker 4: Then I would look at some of these districts in
30:55
Speaker 4: the South that have large black populations because I really
30:58
Speaker 4: do think one of the driving things here is going
30:59
Speaker 4: to be a huge surge in black turnout as a
31:02
Speaker 4: response to the Supreme Court just eliminating potentially a third
31:06
Speaker 4: of the Congressional Black Caucus. And then you want to,
31:09
Speaker 4: I really think that, and this is counterintuitive, but I
31:11
Speaker 4: think you're going to make some real ground in rural
31:13
Speaker 4: districts like North Carolina too, where it is rural areas,
31:18
Speaker 4: which is why Iowa's on the map, Ohio's on the
31:19
Speaker 4: map this time, and frankly why Texas is on the map,
31:22
Speaker 4: is that the rural parts of this country that have
31:24
Speaker 4: been the most pro-Trump have been hammered the most by
31:27
Speaker 4: the trade wars, tariffs, the agriculture policy, where Trump's response
31:32
Speaker 4: to high beef prices was to import beef from Argentina,
31:35
Speaker 4: which tends to make American ranchers not particularly.
31:37
Speaker 1: Happy, and then diesel, right?
31:41
Speaker 4: The agriculture economy runs on diesel, and $ 7 diesel is
31:44
Speaker 4: crushing these people. So I think there's some real opportunities
31:46
Speaker 4: in some districts. This is why we have a couple
31:48
Speaker 4: districts in Iowa that are in play. It's the North
31:49
Speaker 4: Carolina District Management Office. You've got to just pick your
31:51
Speaker 4: opportunities because we can't play everywhere because we have so
31:54
Speaker 4: little money compared to the Republicans.
31:56
Speaker 7: I think those spending restraints compared to the opportunity are
31:59
Speaker 7: why you're starting to hear some operatives and candidates voicing
32:03
Speaker 7: concern and frustration that some of the traditional big, big
32:06
Speaker 7: donors to the Democratic Party are not viewing this as
32:10
Speaker 7: the generational opportunity.
32:11
Speaker 1: That it could be.
32:12
Speaker 7: Because I was talking to someone today who was like,
32:15
Speaker 7: let me paint for you the extreme optimistic picture, which
32:19
Speaker 7: is Democrats are not only winning on the generic ballot,
32:22
Speaker 7: but if you look at the top, like most salient issues,
32:25
Speaker 7: we are crushing in those areas as well, which was
32:28
Speaker 7: not the case in 2024, right? When Republicans made immigration
32:31
Speaker 7: really salient, Democrats were viewed as on the wrong side
32:34
Speaker 7: of it, and we were getting hammered. Then there's the
32:36
Speaker 7: Latino vote element that you talked about.
32:39
Speaker 1: And then if you.
32:40
Speaker 7: Look at the special and off-year elections and the Democratic overperformance,
32:45
Speaker 7: it's like 14 points on average as compared to 2024.
32:49
Speaker 1: And it's held.
32:51
Speaker 7: And that overperformance is better than 17 and 18. And
32:54
Speaker 7: so in a scenario where the results on election day
32:58
Speaker 7: look more like the overperformance in those specials, which we
33:02
Speaker 7: all stipulate is a different electorate and they're weird and whatever.
33:05
Speaker 7: But if it does, it is like truly a historic
33:07
Speaker 7: opportunity to win statewide races, congressional races, down ballot, up
33:13
Speaker 7: and down. And it just feels like a moment when
33:16
Speaker 7: all the biggest donors in the party should be pushing
33:18
Speaker 7: all their chips in the table as aggressively as possible
33:21
Speaker 7: and not holding back for, for I don't know what reason,
33:24
Speaker 7: Trump bothering them.
33:25
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think there, there has been a huge shift
33:28
Speaker 4: in the funding approach and the donor in the large
33:31
Speaker 4: donor community since 2024. Part of it is people still
33:34
Speaker 4: angry about how that election went and feeling like they
33:37
Speaker 4: won a billion dollars on fire in that election, which
33:39
Speaker 4: is a fair quibble in some ways. And then, um,
33:43
Speaker 4: And then there are a lot of people who are
33:44
Speaker 4: very afraid of being targeted by Trump. Like just that
33:47
Speaker 4: your business is going to be targeted. All of a
33:50
Speaker 4: sudden the FBI is going to show up at your door.
33:52
Speaker 4: You're going to have regulatory scrutiny you wouldn't have before.
33:54
Speaker 4: And so that has limited the money. You're exactly right, Tommy,
33:57
Speaker 4: because the average polling error on the generic ballot in
34:04
Speaker 4: a House race is about three points. And there's a
34:07
Speaker 4: very real possibility that it's three points in the right direction.
34:10
Speaker 4: where you're looking at one of the largest swings in
34:12
Speaker 4: American history, something where Democrats could pick up races we've
34:16
Speaker 4: never even thought possible. We've been using 2006 as like
34:19
Speaker 4: the most relevant example of an election because it's, you know,
34:24
Speaker 4: it's an unpopular president, unpopular war, all of that. But
34:26
Speaker 4: it very well could be a little more like 94,
34:28
Speaker 4: where everything changes, where it's a realigning election.
34:30
Speaker 2: And the other, I mean, you were saying earlier that,
34:33
Speaker 2: you know, if Kim Jeffries is speaker, he's speaker, and
34:36
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter if there's like another 10, 15, 20 seats,
34:38
Speaker 2: Trump's still president. But the important thing is to not
34:41
Speaker 2: just look at what this means for the next two years,
34:44
Speaker 2: but to look at 28 and beyond. Because if this
34:47
Speaker 2: is an opportunity to win a bunch of House seats
34:50
Speaker 2: that Democrats couldn't win in a normal year because the
34:52
Speaker 2: environment's so bad for a Republican, and we pick up
34:55
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of seats and then win the presidency
34:59
Speaker 2: in 2028, then that's going to make it more likely
35:02
Speaker 2: for that Democratic president to actually be able to pass
35:05
Speaker 2: a real agenda through Congress because we got all these
35:07
Speaker 2: seats in 2026, knowing that you know, in 2032, then
35:12
Speaker 2: you have a typical midterm year that like the party
35:14
Speaker 2: in power loses seats. And so you're just, you're building
35:16
Speaker 2: up more seats now.
35:18
Speaker 4: Not to mention the possibility of picking up Senate seats
35:21
Speaker 4: in places that in a more typical year, we'd have
35:23
Speaker 4: no chance of getting, right? Like all the, the, the
35:27
Speaker 4: Doomer version of this shift, right? Is there is this
35:29
Speaker 4: shift in places that have been hurt the most, right?
35:31
Speaker 4: In places like Iowa, Kansas, people are talking about Nebraska, right?
35:34
Speaker 4: But if we almost win those places while kind of
35:39
Speaker 4: doing as well as 2006 and a bunch of other places,
35:41
Speaker 4: we don't get extra credit at the end for having
35:44
Speaker 4: not picked up those seats in this one moment where.
35:46
Speaker 1: We had the chance.
35:48
Speaker 4: The Senate matters even more because you get it for
35:49
Speaker 4: six years. You get to live through when the wave recedes.
35:54
Speaker 1: So, yeah.
36:02
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37:39
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about the Senate map.
37:41
Speaker 2: Republicans started the cycle, you know, hoping to hold North
37:44
Speaker 2: Carolina and beat John Ossoff in Georgia. And now their
37:49
Speaker 2: campaign committee is asking donors just recently for $ 9 million
37:53
Speaker 2: in emergency money to defend Alaska, Iowa, Ohio. Cook also
37:58
Speaker 2: moved Kansas, where J.D. Vance was sent to campaign, from
38:03
Speaker 2: likely Republican to lean Republican.
38:05
Speaker 3: Send him three more times.
38:07
Speaker 5: I know.
38:08
Speaker 2: And South Carolina, they moved from solid Republican to likely Republican.
38:14
Speaker 2: Republican Senator John Kennedy, who's been campaigning in Iowa and Nebraska,
38:19
Speaker 2: told Reuters that... Six months ago, he never imagined he'd
38:23
Speaker 2: be spending his time campaigning in states like these because
38:26
Speaker 2: they should be, quote.
38:28
Speaker 1: Fat guy layups. Does anyone know what that means? That
38:31
Speaker 1: was my question. It's when you don't jump.
38:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't have a good jump.
38:34
Speaker 1: You kind of just lay it in.
38:36
Speaker 3: You don't have a big vertical leap because of your heaviness.
38:39
Speaker 1: Does that make it easy? Right.
38:40
Speaker 3: No, that's the question.
38:41
Speaker 1: You're tall. It's supposed to be easy is what he's saying.
38:44
Speaker 4: Yeah.
38:45
Speaker 1: And a fat guy doing a layup is not necessarily easy.
38:47
Speaker 1: That was my question.
38:49
Speaker 3: You know what? I don't know.
38:51
Speaker 2: Anyway, now, Tommy, Dan and I talked about this on
38:56
Speaker 2: yesterday's show, but, you know, the New York Times polls
39:00
Speaker 2: show Susan Collins ahead three points in Maine. Democrats in
39:04
Speaker 2: Michigan and New Hampshire are ahead, but still underperforming the
39:07
Speaker 2: generic ballot. How do you reconcile those two pictures of
39:11
Speaker 2: the Senate map where Cook is moving all these red
39:14
Speaker 2: state races towards Democrats, but then we saw those polls?
39:18
Speaker 7: Yeah, we got the fat guy layups and a dual-listed dunk.
39:21
Speaker 7: What I like about John Kennedy is he had to
39:22
Speaker 7: get degrees from Vanderbilt, UVA, and Oxford to sound that folksy.
39:26
Speaker 1: You know that about him?
39:27
Speaker 4: Yeah you go look at old old videos of john
39:29
Speaker 4: kennedy are amazing because it wasn't his voice yeah no
39:32
Speaker 4: he really learned the folksy thing later he's just a
39:36
Speaker 4: really smart guy.
39:37
Speaker 7: Yeah no he's like i'm yosemite sam accent thing um
39:40
Speaker 7: i think you know the this the states that came
39:43
Speaker 7: out the concerning polling were let's take let's start with
39:47
Speaker 7: maine and new hampshire Maine, like Susan Collins, has overperformed
39:51
Speaker 7: in a bunch of elections.
39:52
Speaker 1: She may very well do so again. She's a known
39:54
Speaker 1: quantity there. She drives us crazy, but they like her.
39:58
Speaker 7: Also, Maine and New Hampshire, like Dan talked about, this
40:01
Speaker 7: historic swing of Latino voters that we're seeing nationwide and
40:04
Speaker 7: that's showing up in these polls. Maine and New Hampshire
40:06
Speaker 7: are like two of the whitest states in the nation, literally.
40:09
Speaker 7: So you're just not going to see that demographic shift
40:11
Speaker 7: showing up there.
40:12
Speaker 1: Old, too. Old, too. And then, you know, Michigan, I think,
40:15
Speaker 1: is a little more complicated of a story.
40:17
Speaker 7: You've got Abdul-Assad emerging from a primary where $ 70 million
40:21
Speaker 7: worth of attack ads were dumped on his head, and
40:24
Speaker 7: that obviously left a mark. You have got a candidate
40:28
Speaker 7: in Abdul who is pretty progressive, and a state that has,
40:32
Speaker 7: in recent years, been more purple or swingy, and maybe
40:35
Speaker 7: there's a bit of a penalty there, although you also
40:38
Speaker 7: see Abdul winning on issues like Medicare for All, like
40:41
Speaker 7: 60% majority support Medicare for All.
40:44
Speaker 5: And then just.
40:46
Speaker 1: Old school Islamophobia could be a piece of it.
40:49
Speaker 7: You guys, I'm sure, were forced to endure the midterm
40:53
Speaker 7: mini convention here in Dallas. Their entire focus when they
40:58
Speaker 7: talked about Abdul was to basically blame him for 9-11
41:01
Speaker 7: and accuse him of being a terrorist.
41:03
Speaker 1: So it's just gross. He was 14, I think. Yeah,
41:06
Speaker 1: he was literally 16 years old.
41:08
Speaker 7: And so we'll see if those things add up to
41:13
Speaker 7: significant headwinds for him on election day. or if, you know,
41:16
Speaker 7: maybe it's temporary, maybe it's, maybe it's gone, but I
41:19
Speaker 7: think those.
41:19
Speaker 1: Are the factors.
41:21
Speaker 2: Um, one update on another Senate story from this week. Uh,
41:25
Speaker 2: so the reaction to the New York times story about
41:27
Speaker 2: Mary Peltola's alleged poor treatment of her staff, offensive language,
41:32
Speaker 2: forced chameleon feeding.
41:35
Speaker 3: Uh, that's not like a weird euphemism, like feeding her
41:37
Speaker 3: pet chameleon.
41:39
Speaker 1: The crickets feed the crickets to the chameleon.
41:42
Speaker 2: Um, Anyway, the reaction has been considerably less pearl-clutchy from
41:47
Speaker 2: Democrats than you might have expected even a couple years ago.
41:51
Speaker 2: Here's a good example from Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego when
41:55
Speaker 2: he was asked about this, also a combat veteran, and
41:57
Speaker 2: he said, quote, when I was 25, I had a
42:01
Speaker 2: really bad boss. He made me run across an open
42:03
Speaker 2: fucking field of raking machine gun fire to breach a door.
42:06
Speaker 1: That's great.
42:11
Speaker 2: Um, Meanwhile, Peltola's opponent, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, called the
42:15
Speaker 2: allegations very disturbing, a character issue, and the Republican campaign
42:20
Speaker 2: committee called her dangerous and unhinged.
42:24
Speaker 1: Stupid.
42:24
Speaker 2: Lovett, how about those fucking snowflakes, huh? That's amazing. What
42:28
Speaker 2: do you make of the muted reaction? Signs of growth?
42:32
Speaker 2: Just desperate to win?
42:33
Speaker 1: A little bit of both?
42:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, sure.
42:35
Speaker 4: Look, I think there was a moment where, especially when
42:37
Speaker 4: people were in their homes and there was a lot
42:39
Speaker 4: of toxic online.
42:41
Speaker 1: Culture.
42:42
Speaker 4: People were afraid to say what they thought, which is like,
42:45
Speaker 4: do I think it's great if a boss calls an
42:48
Speaker 4: employee a f * * *? No, but I think
42:50
Speaker 4: the Senate's more important. But now we're like, no, the
42:52
Speaker 4: stakes are too high. And we've just been through too
42:55
Speaker 4: many rounds of this. And the fact that there are
42:57
Speaker 4: people that would be working for a Democratic member of
42:59
Speaker 4: Congress who may have been rude and mean at the
43:03
Speaker 4: darkest moment in her life, by the way, like after
43:05
Speaker 4: experiencing incredible tragedy, and then six weeks before an election
43:10
Speaker 4: to leak that to the Times. It is a privilege
43:14
Speaker 4: to pretend you don't have to think about the stakes.
43:16
Speaker 4: Everybody has to think about the stakes. And whether or
43:18
Speaker 4: not Donald Trump can appoint right-wing anti-choice judges for two years,
43:24
Speaker 4: whether or not we have genuine investigations in the Senate,
43:27
Speaker 4: these are the stakes in the election.
43:28
Speaker 3: And there's not a gay.
43:30
Speaker 4: Guy from Austin to underneath the docks in Provincetown who
43:34
Speaker 4: wouldn't be happily called a c * * *- guzzling
43:36
Speaker 4: f * * * er. to have a Democratic Senate.
43:41
Speaker 4: Just a mincing, butt-munching ass pirate. And if we have
43:47
Speaker 4: to get Mary Peltola, honestly, we could knight her. Go
43:50
Speaker 4: to find the gayest fucking person you can find in
43:55
Speaker 4: the state of Texas, in the state of Alaska. Have
43:57
Speaker 4: her kneel and have a sword go to both sides
44:00
Speaker 4: and say, you may call us whatever the fuck you.
44:02
Speaker 1: Want, Mary Peltola, if you win this seat. Anyway, if
44:10
Speaker 1: you're listening, Mary Peltola, come on Pod Save America. Jesus Christ.
44:15
Speaker 1: That'll help. That'll help in the homestretch. Oh, you have
44:18
Speaker 1: to feed her lizard? And you're mad?
44:21
Speaker 3: Then quit or shut up.
44:24
Speaker 2: It's also just like, if it was a dog, no
44:26
Speaker 2: one would have said anything. It's just because it was
44:28
Speaker 2: a chameleon and they ate crickets.
44:30
Speaker 1: I had lizards growing up. It's not hard. You give
44:32
Speaker 1: them like one cricket a week. They're fine. What kind
44:35
Speaker 1: of lizards did you have, Tommy? A bunch, man. What
44:37
Speaker 1: were they called? They weren't really chameleons. Anyway. Anyway. They
44:40
Speaker 1: were cool. Let them go in the yard. They'd free
44:42
Speaker 1: range for a summer.
44:43
Speaker 4: Later on, subscribers will get a chance to hear about
44:45
Speaker 4: Tommy's Lizards.
44:46
Speaker 1: Yes, that is a subscriber benefit.
44:49
Speaker 7: I can't believe Mary Peltola won't come on Pod Dave America.
44:54
Speaker 2: It's shocking. You'll be seeing Love at Fish with her soon. Finally,
45:00
Speaker 2: before we bring Bobby Polito on, in case you were
45:02
Speaker 2: all wondering what critical issues the world's two biggest superpowers
45:07
Speaker 2: and competitors focused on, during Chinese President Xi's visit to Washington.
45:13
Speaker 2: The answer is Donald Trump's home renovations. Trump gave Xi
45:18
Speaker 2: a personal tour of his brand new White House helipad
45:22
Speaker 2: and then told reporters that Xi has a, quote, great
45:25
Speaker 2: interest in granite, loves granite. Then at the state dinner,
45:31
Speaker 2: Trump went off script to invite Xi and the entire room,
45:33
Speaker 2: the entire dinner, to, after dinner was over, walk behind
45:37
Speaker 2: the curtain and become... quote the first people to step
45:40
Speaker 2: foot on the ballroom construction site.
45:43
Speaker 1: Very exciting.
45:44
Speaker 2: Um, which we learned this week from the Washington post
45:47
Speaker 2: was not originally designed with sufficient, uh, emergency exits and
45:52
Speaker 2: fire containment measures. But when the, uh, when the original architect, uh,
45:57
Speaker 2: pointed out that the ballroom wouldn't meet building codes, Trump
46:02
Speaker 2: reportedly said, I am the code.
46:04
Speaker 1: That's real.
46:07
Speaker 2: Uh, Tommy, a lot of places we could go with this.
46:11
Speaker 2: What do you think she thinks of Donald Trump? He
46:14
Speaker 2: thinks he's a clown. The whole thing was so embarrassing.
46:17
Speaker 7: Usually a bilateral meeting between two great superpowers has a
46:23
Speaker 7: purpose or an outcome that you're preparing to get to.
46:28
Speaker 1: This one was a joke.
46:29
Speaker 7: They continued to punt the trade war. They didn't really
46:33
Speaker 7: figure out anything real about artificial intelligence.
46:36
Speaker 1: Superintelligence. super intelligent. That's how I know.
46:40
Speaker 7: Trump tried to curry favor with Xi with all this
46:43
Speaker 7: protocol and pomp and circumstances to include meeting him at
46:46
Speaker 7: the airport, which, like, the Chinese are big on protocol,
46:50
Speaker 7: and I can just assure you that that made them
46:53
Speaker 7: think that Trump looked like subservience.
46:55
Speaker 2: I don't go to lax to pick up my wife
46:57
Speaker 2: no one.
46:59
Speaker 4: Don jr's like oh you're gonna pick up g at
47:01
Speaker 4: the airport cool yeah for sure no but all those
47:05
Speaker 4: years you pick me up from camp dad.
47:09
Speaker 7: The one time obama met someone at the airport was
47:11
Speaker 7: the pope and he reports to a higher power as
47:13
Speaker 7: we all know so that like it kind of made
47:15
Speaker 7: sense in that context the whole meeting was a joke
47:17
Speaker 7: Trump looks like an.
47:18
Speaker 1: Absolute clown in front of Xi.
47:20
Speaker 7: Xi's got him over a barrel with, like, rare earths
47:23
Speaker 7: and all these, like, trade issues.
47:24
Speaker 1: And so the whole thing was just stupid. He's got
47:27
Speaker 1: a thing for commies. Yeah, he does. Xi, Madonna. That's
47:33
Speaker 1: just Trump's kink.
47:34
Speaker 5: All right.
47:36
Speaker 2: When we come back, we'll be talking to Texas Democratic
47:39
Speaker 2: House candidate Bobby Polito.
47:48
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Speaker 4: crooked to save 10% off your first purchase of a
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Speaker 4: website or domain. That's squarespace.com slash crooked. He's running against
49:04
Speaker 4: a Trump-backed Republican in Texas's 15th district in one of
49:07
Speaker 4: the most competitive races in the country, could determine control
49:11
Speaker 4: of the House. He's also won a couple of Latin Grammys.
49:13
Speaker 4: Please welcome Bobby Pulido. Thank you for being here. Sorry,
49:37
Speaker 4: the Catholic came out in me.
49:39
Speaker 3: Yeah.
49:41
Speaker 5: Oh, I know, no, but me.
49:43
Speaker 3: I'm Jewish too.
49:45
Speaker 5: We're fine. Congratulations.
49:47
Speaker 1: Totally fine.
49:49
Speaker 4: So Trump won handily in this district in 2024, but
49:54
Speaker 4: something is changing. Your race is one of the races,
49:57
Speaker 4: I believe, that got moved to the toss-up category.
50:00
Speaker 1: Yes.
50:01
Speaker 4: And your opponent in a recent leaked audio said of
50:06
Speaker 4: a poll, oh, sweet Lord Jesus, That's not good. What
50:13
Speaker 4: are you hearing from voters about why people who may
50:17
Speaker 4: have voted for Trump are sort of turning away from
50:21
Speaker 4: him and his allies?
50:23
Speaker 6: Okay, there's two questions there. That part where she said
50:26
Speaker 6: that was like really early in the year. It's gotten
50:31
Speaker 6: a lot worse since then.
50:34
Speaker 5: But I'll tell you, you know, people don't like getting
50:37
Speaker 5: lied to.
50:37
Speaker 6: How about a novel idea there, right?
50:40
Speaker 5: They said there was going to be no new wars.
50:41
Speaker 6: And now when they put gas and diesel now that's
50:44
Speaker 6: $ 6 a gallon, they're reminded that they got lied to.
50:48
Speaker 6: Still waiting for a health care plan since 2017. It's
50:53
Speaker 6: been one lie after the other, really. The only thing
50:56
Speaker 6: that he can probably hang his head is that the
50:58
Speaker 6: border is secure. But now there's no chaos on the border.
51:01
Speaker 6: It's chaos in the streets. And there's people really living
51:05
Speaker 6: in fear down there. You know, the Rio Grande Valley
51:07
Speaker 6: is 94. 4% Hispanic. And now that they allowed them
51:12
Speaker 6: to racial profile based on race or language, imagine what
51:17
Speaker 6: that does to a community. Any community, I don't care
51:20
Speaker 6: which one, that's living in fear cannot function properly.
51:23
Speaker 5: And people are really angry.
51:24
Speaker 6: You've got to understand, a lot of these voters were
51:27
Speaker 6: voting Republican because of, you know, Chamber of Commerce Republicans,
51:32
Speaker 6: lower tax cuts. They're finding out right now that those
51:35
Speaker 6: policies are actually bad for business. And that's the biggest
51:40
Speaker 6: break that I've seen. I think people right now, both
51:44
Speaker 6: parties are not popular because nobody represents the people. And
51:51
Speaker 6: we ran with a platform based on, I'm not here
51:54
Speaker 6: for the party, I'm here for you. And does that
51:57
Speaker 6: mean that, I don't think people fit into the heterodoxy
52:01
Speaker 6: of either party, especially Hispanics.
52:04
Speaker 4: So speaking of what's been happening, with ICE. So your
52:10
Speaker 4: opponent was originally very supportive of the Trump immigration crackdown,
52:14
Speaker 4: back cuts to Medicaid, back the huge increase in funding
52:17
Speaker 4: for ICE and detention centers. She's now running ads about
52:21
Speaker 4: getting someone out of detention, the detention she voted to
52:27
Speaker 4: increase by billions and billions of dollars.
52:30
Speaker 5: It's amazing what happens when they think they're going to lose.
52:32
Speaker 1: Right.
52:33
Speaker 3: What was, what have, What was your reaction to that?
52:36
Speaker 4: What is your response to her claim that she's sort
52:38
Speaker 4: of been looking out for people that have been grabbed
52:41
Speaker 4: by ICE?
52:41
Speaker 6: Oh, gosh, it's completely disingenuous. I mean, everything started like
52:46
Speaker 6: right after I won the primary. There was a group
52:48
Speaker 6: of mariachi and a couple of kids that got that
52:52
Speaker 6: had gone. She took them to the to to Washington
52:55
Speaker 6: to go play for her. And she was actually like
52:57
Speaker 6: showing a selfie. Look, I'm here with mariachi kids. And
53:01
Speaker 6: then they got detained. And they asked her to go
53:05
Speaker 6: help them, and she said there's nothing that she could do.
53:08
Speaker 6: So on a Saturday, I called her out for her hypocrisy.
53:13
Speaker 6: I showed the video. And by Monday, she hauled out,
53:17
Speaker 6: I'm not lying, a big podium out at the detention
53:20
Speaker 6: center and pulled one of them out like as if
53:22
Speaker 6: she was Joaquin Castro. I would have never thought, if
53:26
Speaker 6: you had told me in 2024... That a Republican would
53:29
Speaker 6: be out there saying, look what I'm doing for the immigrants.
53:32
Speaker 6: I would have told you, you're crazy. But she absolutely
53:35
Speaker 6: wants to have it both ways. And you can't.
53:38
Speaker 4: Now, we're going to play a game in a moment.
53:42
Speaker 4: But one last question, which is, you've talked about sort
53:45
Speaker 4: of people feeling dissatisfied with both parties. One of the challenges,
53:48
Speaker 4: it seems, is you're dealing with a caricature people might
53:51
Speaker 4: have of somebody running as a Democrat. First of all,
53:54
Speaker 4: what does that feel like to you? And What are
53:58
Speaker 4: the questions you get about that? And then how do
54:00
Speaker 4: you go against that?
54:01
Speaker 5: Just honest.
54:03
Speaker 6: I mean, there is a caricature, but you know, you
54:05
Speaker 6: got to understand like they gerrymandered the district so much
54:09
Speaker 6: that for a long time, the Democrats would not go
54:13
Speaker 6: campaign in these rural areas because they could win it
54:16
Speaker 6: with a vote in the RGV in the Rio Grande Valley.
54:19
Speaker 6: So we were kind of negligent in not going and
54:22
Speaker 6: showing up. I'm not making that same mistake. We've gone
54:25
Speaker 6: to every single county, the reddest counties, counties that don't
54:28
Speaker 6: have a Democratic party. And the people need to trust
54:32
Speaker 6: you and you can't show up with three months or
54:34
Speaker 6: with a commercial to earn their vote. And the polling
54:38
Speaker 6: shows that it's been working because we're actually showing up.
54:41
Speaker 6: And I think that's the secret. That's the secret sauce
54:45
Speaker 6: is we got to get out there. It's a lot
54:46
Speaker 6: of work. We're not going to win an election based
54:49
Speaker 6: on commercials or mailers.
54:51
Speaker 7: Probably doesn't hurt that you played concerts in a lot
54:53
Speaker 7: of these places well before you were ever in politics.
54:56
Speaker 1: That must be nice.
54:57
Speaker 6: Look, that's the foot in the door, but it doesn't
55:00
Speaker 6: close it. I mean, it absolutely, there's a lot of
55:02
Speaker 6: people that want to know, like, are you, you know,
55:06
Speaker 6: the scary Democrat that we keep hearing about? And you
55:09
Speaker 6: got to show them that I just want you to
55:11
Speaker 6: have affordable health care. You know, I want you to,
55:15
Speaker 6: I want people to be able to live their life
55:17
Speaker 6: without fear. And once they hear that, they're like, well,
55:21
Speaker 6: I agree with that.
55:22
Speaker 5: Well, so do I.
55:24
Speaker 6: And so it's not that hard, to be honest with you.
55:27
Speaker 6: The one thing I don't do is I don't go
55:28
Speaker 6: shame them for how they voted. We don't talk about
55:31
Speaker 6: the past. We're looking at the future. And we're running
55:35
Speaker 6: that kind of race, you know? We're running against somebody
55:37
Speaker 6: that's really trying to... The same old smear tactics. They
55:40
Speaker 6: called me a quinceanera singer, right? Like on primary night
55:43
Speaker 6: and like trying to be like Trump. And we got
55:46
Speaker 6: invited to over a thousand quinceaneras in one day.
55:50
Speaker 4: And....
55:54
Speaker 1: No, I'm serious.
55:55
Speaker 6: We've had 5,000 invites since, and we've done 75 of them.
56:00
Speaker 1: That's amazing.
56:03
Speaker 3: Yeah.
56:04
Speaker 5: And we actually send them. You know, we ask. We
56:08
Speaker 5: have one ask. Can we have volunteers there to sign
56:11
Speaker 5: people up? And they go, yeah. That's our grassroots movement.
56:15
Speaker 5: That's awesome.
56:16
Speaker 4: Nice.
56:17
Speaker 3: Well, you've graciously agreed to stick around for game.
56:21
Speaker 1: Austin, bring out the game hat. Wow.
56:28
Speaker 3: So, Texas.
56:34
Speaker 1: We love it here.
56:35
Speaker 4: And even though there are some interlopers who are trying
56:37
Speaker 4: to turn Austin into the godforsaken love child of Nashville
56:40
Speaker 4: and San Francisco.
56:44
Speaker 5: You said it, I didn't.
56:46
Speaker 1: No, I'm just kidding.
56:47
Speaker 3: It still rules.
56:48
Speaker 4: I got a giant plate of brisket last night and
56:50
Speaker 4: they just threw some extra on there for fun. And
56:52
Speaker 4: maybe because there was some sadness in my eyes because
56:54
Speaker 4: Tommy didn't come with me. And even though I was stuffed,
56:58
Speaker 4: I got a dipped cone on my way back. And
57:00
Speaker 4: then I died, and then I saw Mitch McConnell, and
57:02
Speaker 4: now I'm here. For a game we're calling Choose in
57:06
Speaker 4: Texas or Cowboy Up.
57:08
Speaker 1: Here's how it works.
57:09
Speaker 4: We have questions in this hat for Bobby Polito. Each
57:14
Speaker 4: of us will reach in and grab a question. They're
57:17
Speaker 4: either ors, and it's rapid fire. You just got to
57:19
Speaker 4: go with your gut, okay?
57:20
Speaker 1: Are you ready?
57:21
Speaker 4: Okay.
57:21
Speaker 5: I'm ready.
57:22
Speaker 1: All right.
57:22
Speaker 3: John, you want to kick it off?
57:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, sure.
57:24
Speaker 3: Try to get through as many as we can.
57:25
Speaker 1: Okay. Beef brisket or pork ribs?
57:29
Speaker 5: Brisket.
57:32
Speaker 4: Tear down the Trump ballroom or leave it up and
57:33
Speaker 4: host a massive record-breaking quinceañera there in 2029?
57:36
Speaker 3: What?
57:39
Speaker 4: Are we going to tear down the Trump ballroom or
57:41
Speaker 4: leave it up and you'll host a quinceañera there.
57:43
Speaker 1: During the next.
57:43
Speaker 5: We'll tear that mother down. Okay.
57:48
Speaker 1: California or New York?
57:50
Speaker 4: Oh. Oh.
57:53
Speaker 5: I hate you. New York.
57:59
Speaker 4: Nice.
58:00
Speaker 1: If you hated him, you're going to hate me. Greg
58:02
Speaker 1: Abbott or Beau French? Boy.
58:07
Speaker 5: Oh, my God. It's like gonorrhea or syphilis, right?
58:12
Speaker 1: That's a good answer. Bajo sexto or tolo loche?
58:19
Speaker 4: Ooh.
58:20
Speaker 1: Bajo sexto.
58:22
Speaker 3: All right.
58:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good one.
58:24
Speaker 4: J.D.
58:24
Speaker 3: Vance or Marco Rubio?
58:31
Speaker 5: Neither, but Marco Rubio if I had to pick.
58:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the right answer. Aggies or Longhorns?
58:41
Speaker 5: I have a UT sun right now.
58:43
Speaker 1: Hook them horns, man. Yeah, all right. That was easy.
58:49
Speaker 1: Houston or Dallas?
58:52
Speaker 5: I'm a Houston Texan fan.
58:58
Speaker 2: Texas sheet cake or pecan pie?
59:01
Speaker 6: I don't even know what the first one was. What
59:02
Speaker 6: was that? Texas sheet cake? Never heard of that.
59:05
Speaker 1: I haven't either. I'm from the Valley.
59:06
Speaker 5: Excuse me, man.
59:08
Speaker 1: What do you guys think?
59:11
Speaker 3: Did you say cheesecake or sheet cake?
59:13
Speaker 5: Sheet cake. I've never heard of that. Pecan pie.
59:17
Speaker 1: Pecan pie.
59:18
Speaker 4: What do you guys think? Oh, people want the sheet
59:20
Speaker 4: cake answer. Ken Paxton or Beau French?
59:23
Speaker 1: They're different.
59:25
Speaker 3: Really, man?
59:27
Speaker 1: Shit, like.
59:30
Speaker 1: Gosh. No, man.
59:32
Speaker 5: That's... Paxton, right? Yeah.
59:37
Speaker 1: I mean... Over both French. Yeah, for sure.
59:40
Speaker 3: It's a tough choice.
59:41
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a tough choice. Dan or someone named John?
59:49
Speaker 1: I wrote this, and that is not what it said.
59:50
Speaker 1: I punched you up. Dan or Tommy, go with your gut.
59:59
Speaker 5: Well, Tommy, you were the first one to interview me
1:00:01
Speaker 5: on pod two.
1:00:02
Speaker 3: Fair enough, fair enough.
1:00:05
Speaker 1: Grammys or Latin Grammys? Oh, gosh.
1:00:09
Speaker 5: I have two Latin Grammys. I don't have a Grammy. Grammy.
1:00:13
Speaker 1: There you go. Last one. Ted Cruz beard or Ted
1:00:18
Speaker 1: Cruz no beard?
1:00:19
Speaker 7: God.
1:00:28
Speaker 4: Oh no, this is, and that was the last we
1:00:30
Speaker 4: ever saw of Bobby Pulido.
1:00:31
Speaker 5: We broke him.
1:00:32
Speaker 1: He was like, that's it, I'm going back to music.
1:00:36
Speaker 5: You're asking me about Fat Wolverine? Sorry, man.
1:00:40
Speaker 3: No, no.
1:00:41
Speaker 6: Beard.
1:00:42
Speaker 1: Beard, right? I think the less of Ted Cruz's face
1:00:45
Speaker 1: you see, the better. Yeah, that's good.
1:00:47
Speaker 5: All right.
1:00:48
Speaker 7: Where can people go to support your campaign before we
1:00:50
Speaker 7: wrap this?
1:00:51
Speaker 6: Bobby Pulido for Texas. And, you know, we're down to stretch.
1:00:56
Speaker 6: We definitely, you know, they have more money than we do,
1:00:59
Speaker 6: and we need to compete. So, you know, we'd be
1:01:02
Speaker 6: really gracious if people could go in there and donate.
1:01:05
Speaker 1: Thank you so much.
1:01:07
Speaker 2: And that's our game. Thank you to Bobby Pulido for
1:01:11
Speaker 2: joining us. Thank you all for joining us, and that's
1:01:14
Speaker 2: our show. We'll see you all later.
1:01:16
Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.
1:01:17
Speaker 2: Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts,
1:01:20
Speaker 2: and Farrah Safaris with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill.
1:01:23
Speaker 2: Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hefcoat, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis,
1:01:26
Speaker 2: David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Singel. Our
1:01:28
Speaker 2: staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.