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POTB 538: A preseason Big Ten basketball tier list with Greg Waddell of Sleepers Media · Podcast on the Brink

0:17
Speaker 1: Welcome back to a new episode of Podcasts on the
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Speaker 1: Brink Thursday, September fourth, Greg Whatel Sleepers Media this week's
0:26
Speaker 1: guest on Podcast on the Break returning guests before we
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Speaker 1: get to Greg. If you enjoy the show, please leave
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Speaker 1: us a five star rating over on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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Speaker 1: If you're watching over on YouTube, like the video, subscribe
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Speaker 1: to the channel. Really helps us grow our reach. As
0:40
Speaker 1: Greg knows, he's a prominent I think I can call
0:43
Speaker 1: you that college basketball YouTuber at this point. Greg. One
0:46
Speaker 1: of the reasons I love to have you on you
0:48
Speaker 1: and Carter, what you do year round in terms of content,
0:52
Speaker 1: how much you guys grind, and the fact that you
0:53
Speaker 1: just don't take it so seriously. I feel like sometimes,
0:56
Speaker 1: you know, I take it so seriously, and I like to.
0:58
Speaker 1: I like to watch you guys because you have fun
1:00
Speaker 1: with everything. You do a lot of different things throughout
1:04
Speaker 1: the off season to kind of keep the content fresh.
1:06
Speaker 1: I really enjoy it. Thanks for taking the time to
1:08
Speaker 1: come on, and thanks for being a good sport. I
1:10
Speaker 1: kind of put you on the spot when we got
1:11
Speaker 1: on this call and I wanted you to go through
1:13
Speaker 1: an exercise with me here and you came up with
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Speaker 1: your list in like five minutes, so I really appreciate
1:19
Speaker 1: you taking the time to come on the show absolutely.
1:22
Speaker 2: Man Likewise, I'm a huge fan of everything you guys
1:24
Speaker 2: are doing with inside the Hall. We know you guys
1:26
Speaker 2: are the go tos for Indiana, so it's great to
1:29
Speaker 2: be back. Great to see you again, and you know
1:31
Speaker 2: your personnel here because there's nothing I love more than
1:34
Speaker 2: being put on the spot and coming up with lists
1:36
Speaker 2: and having fun talking Big ten hoops. Let's do it.
1:39
Speaker 1: So we got about two months until the regular season starts,
1:42
Speaker 1: and what I enlisted Greg with the challenge of doing
1:46
Speaker 1: is giving each Big ten team a spot on a
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Speaker 1: tier list. So I broke it up into five tiers,
1:53
Speaker 1: just kind of going from top to bottom. Big ten
1:55
Speaker 1: National contender. I kind of defined that as a team
1:57
Speaker 1: that can win the Big Ten title, go on a
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Speaker 1: D tournament, run solid and CAA tournament. Teams teams that
2:03
Speaker 1: we expect to get in but maybe not maybe win
2:06
Speaker 1: a game, maybe get to the second weekend, but flame out.
2:10
Speaker 1: Then we have could be in bubble teams, which are
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Speaker 1: you know, teams that have a chance to make it,
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Speaker 1: but could also be on the bubble not not totally
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Speaker 1: sure where they're gona end up. The four tiers kind
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Speaker 1: of see you in the Crown, you know, a little
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Speaker 1: bit of a joke there because of that tournament and
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Speaker 1: everything that went on with that last year and then
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Speaker 1: no shot at the postseason, which you know, there's certainly
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Speaker 1: some teams in the league that probably fit into that category.
2:34
Speaker 1: So Greg, I want to start with that and work
2:37
Speaker 1: our way up teams that you kind of look at
2:40
Speaker 1: in the preseason here as we get ready for another
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Speaker 1: season the Big ten hoops and say no shot at
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Speaker 1: the postseason? Who are those four are I don't want
2:48
Speaker 1: to say four. I don't know that there are four,
2:50
Speaker 1: but who are those teams? And maybe give me a
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Speaker 1: little bit on each team and why you feel that way?
2:54
Speaker 2: Sure, so I only have two teams in this tier,
2:57
Speaker 2: and as we work our way up the list, I
2:59
Speaker 2: think a couple things are going to become abundantly true
3:02
Speaker 2: about how I feel about this league right now. But
3:05
Speaker 2: I want to give a little hat tip to your
3:07
Speaker 2: colleague Dylan Burkhart from You have Hoops. As you guys
3:10
Speaker 2: are working through the Big ten, players count now, which
3:12
Speaker 2: is one of my favorite features every offseason. He has
3:15
Speaker 2: made the point repeatedly that there's only I think maybe
3:21
Speaker 2: two teams in this entire league that would consider changing
3:26
Speaker 2: coaches right now, and I think that's very real. In
3:30
Speaker 2: an eighteen team league, there are sixteen teams that either
3:33
Speaker 2: feel very good about a new hire they just made
3:36
Speaker 2: or the trajectory of the coach they hired a couple
3:38
Speaker 2: years ago, or have coaches in their prime that are
3:41
Speaker 2: still winning at a high level. So, to me, the
3:44
Speaker 2: only two that you can put definitively in that there's
3:48
Speaker 2: no postseason future here are the two that may be
3:51
Speaker 2: looking elsewhere in a year or so. It's Penn State
3:54
Speaker 2: and it's Rutgers. And you know, two years ago, I
3:57
Speaker 2: would have never thought that we would see Steve pikeel
4:00
Speaker 2: on the hot seat. But it was quite a risk
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Speaker 2: for him to bring in those five stars and build
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Speaker 2: everything around two players who so clearly had their feet
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Speaker 2: out the door coming into the season, and he did
4:11
Speaker 2: a horrible job surrounding them with the things they needed
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Speaker 2: and what could have been a very special year. He's
4:17
Speaker 2: reset the book here. This Rutgers team is really beare
4:20
Speaker 2: on paper, There's not a lot to like from what
4:22
Speaker 2: they bring back and I guess you could argue after
4:25
Speaker 2: a miserable season, it's good to kind of start fresh.
4:27
Speaker 2: But I just think the juice is run out for Pikel.
4:30
Speaker 2: With Penn State, they have some talent, Don't get me wrong.
4:34
Speaker 2: Mingo is a guy that a lot of people like,
4:36
Speaker 2: and I think it's hard to see how little they've
4:40
Speaker 2: been able to build momentum since Shrewsbury had the Jalen
4:44
Speaker 2: Pickett year. I mean, there have been good players. Ace
4:47
Speaker 2: Baldwin is a great player, and Mike ros just couldn't
4:51
Speaker 2: figure out how to win in this league. I'm not
4:53
Speaker 2: expecting much. So yeah, I'm gonna keep this tier to
4:55
Speaker 2: two as the hopeless teams coming into the season.
4:59
Speaker 1: Do you actually think Rhodes or Pikel are actually on
5:02
Speaker 1: the hot seat going into the season. I mean, Roads
5:04
Speaker 1: is what this is gonna be. Year three of Pikel's obviously,
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Speaker 1: I think built up some at least credibility there in
5:11
Speaker 1: terms of what he's been able to. I mean, Rutgers
5:13
Speaker 1: before he got there was an absolute joke of a program.
5:16
Speaker 1: He's made some NCAA tournaments, but you mentioned last season
5:20
Speaker 1: there was a ton of high hopes. I'm just curious
5:22
Speaker 1: if you think there's a realistic chance that either of
5:23
Speaker 1: those programs would move on after the season.
5:26
Speaker 2: I think there really is. And with Pikeel that that
5:29
Speaker 2: really bumps me out because everybody loves Steve Pikeel. He's
5:32
Speaker 2: a great guy. But yeah, I think just from a
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Speaker 2: general pulse and kind of what are you guys hearing
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Speaker 2: asking around, it feels like there is a real sense
5:40
Speaker 2: of last season went as bad as it could have,
5:43
Speaker 2: It's never going to be better than that in terms
5:45
Speaker 2: of talent at this school, and the wheels have fallen
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Speaker 2: off with Rhads. It's still early, but also once you
5:52
Speaker 2: get through your third year, how early is it. And
5:55
Speaker 2: he's won sixteen games both of those years. I don't
5:58
Speaker 2: think anyone's expecting Penn State to win more more than
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Speaker 2: sixteen games in year three with how loaded this conference is.
6:03
Speaker 2: So we'll see. Those two are both gonna have to
6:06
Speaker 2: to pleasantly surprise. I think if either one of those
6:09
Speaker 2: teams ends up like in the bubble conversation, then you're
6:11
Speaker 2: probably talking about some job security. But I just don't
6:15
Speaker 2: expect that to happen, And quite frankly, I'd be surprised
6:17
Speaker 2: if either of these teams made the Crown.
6:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, so moving up to that next category are tier
6:24
Speaker 1: teams that could kind of make the postseason, the Crown,
6:27
Speaker 1: whatever postseason, just not the NCAA Tournament, but some type
6:31
Speaker 1: of postseason. How many teams do you have in this
6:34
Speaker 1: tier and who do you have?
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Speaker 2: I have three teams in this tier, and two of
6:39
Speaker 2: them I'm very upset with myself that I'm putting in
6:42
Speaker 2: this tier, so I'll do the third first. I have
6:44
Speaker 2: Minnesota in this tier. Now this is just simply a
6:48
Speaker 2: Nico Medved hat tip. And I'm used the term hat
6:51
Speaker 2: tip twice in five minutes. Now, I gotta stop doing that.
6:53
Speaker 2: But a lot of smart people tell me they love
6:56
Speaker 2: Nico Medved. He's an offensive genius and a guy that
6:59
Speaker 2: will get the most out of his rosters at all times.
7:02
Speaker 2: I have pushed back on that from time to time previously.
7:05
Speaker 2: I think, you know, he's had talent at Colorado State
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Speaker 2: that quite frankly, I think could have been more successful
7:12
Speaker 2: and made some postseason runs. And it's a credit to
7:15
Speaker 2: him and how he built those rosters. But we just
7:17
Speaker 2: watched john Tonjie go to Wisconsin and look like the
7:19
Speaker 2: second best player in the league. He certainly didn't look
7:22
Speaker 2: like that, and his years at Colorad, I don't state
7:24
Speaker 2: before it on teams that had some real superstars with
7:27
Speaker 2: Isaiah Stevens a point guard people liked. But I think Minnesota,
7:31
Speaker 2: I would argue, is the hardest place to win at
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Speaker 2: in this league, and that sounds crazy when Penn State
7:36
Speaker 2: Basketball exists. But you know, we've seen guys that have
7:39
Speaker 2: proven themselves to be good coaches elsewhere go there and
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Speaker 2: just fail. If you're Nico, there are reasons to believe
7:46
Speaker 2: that he's a better culture fit with that program, and
7:49
Speaker 2: I'm very curious to see what he'll look like in
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Speaker 2: year one. But yeah, roster wise, what he's put together,
7:54
Speaker 2: I don't expect them to be competitive. If it was
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Speaker 2: a different coach, I would probably bump them down to
8:00
Speaker 2: the Penn State Rutgers tier. But you have to give
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Speaker 2: Nico the benefit of the doubt. The two I want
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Speaker 2: to love together here and I'm curious to get your thoughts.
8:08
Speaker 2: Nebraska and Northwestern. These are two programs with two coaches
8:12
Speaker 2: that have proven they can overachieve in this league. Fred
8:15
Speaker 2: Hoiberg and Chris Collins are two guys that quite frankly
8:19
Speaker 2: have dragged nit at best rosters to the NCAA Tournament
8:23
Speaker 2: multiple times in the last five years, and Northwestern has
8:28
Speaker 2: a top six player in the conference and Nick Martinelli,
8:31
Speaker 2: who you know, if all goes well, it's not crazy
8:34
Speaker 2: to think that he would be in the Big Ten
8:35
Speaker 2: Player of the Year conversation at the end of the year.
8:38
Speaker 2: There's some breakout candidates in kJ Windham and a few
8:41
Speaker 2: other young pieces on the Northwestern roster that kind of
8:44
Speaker 2: raised the upside. And then Nebraska last year went sideways
8:48
Speaker 2: for them, I think largely because they didn't have Rank Mast.
8:51
Speaker 2: Who remember the last time they had Rank Mast was
8:53
Speaker 2: incredible and we don't know what he's going to be
8:56
Speaker 2: post injury. But I think, you know, these are two
8:59
Speaker 2: guys in Collegeburg. I want to believe in them on
9:02
Speaker 2: an annual basis. But I do think there is so
9:06
Speaker 2: much talent in this conference from all of these big
9:09
Speaker 2: spender schools elsewhere that for now you need to drop
9:13
Speaker 2: them below the teams that just have a little more
9:16
Speaker 2: star power.
9:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that. And the thing that
9:20
Speaker 1: I mentioned to Dylan when we went we went through
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Speaker 1: and made the list. I feel like last year, previous
9:25
Speaker 1: years it got to a certain point where it was
9:28
Speaker 1: hard to come up with names to put on this list.
9:30
Speaker 1: I feel like this year the talent overall in the
9:32
Speaker 1: Big Ten is just so deep, and there was guys
9:34
Speaker 1: I think we left off and we did that. We've
9:36
Speaker 1: done it in the past. We've made mistake like last
9:38
Speaker 1: year we didn't. We didn't have john Tonji on the
9:40
Speaker 1: list in the preseason. I don't think anybody would have.
9:42
Speaker 1: But I just feel like overall that the talent in
9:45
Speaker 1: this league, and a lot of it has to do
9:47
Speaker 1: with obviously the NIO and resources that programs are committing
9:51
Speaker 1: to men's basketball is deep, and I agree. I mean
9:55
Speaker 1: Nebraska and Northwestern, they're going to have games at home
9:59
Speaker 1: where they not off you know, a top two or
10:01
Speaker 1: three team in the Big Ten. We're gonna say, wow,
10:03
Speaker 1: is this team, you know, potentially NCAA tournament team. I
10:07
Speaker 1: feel like they could play well in the non conference
10:10
Speaker 1: against I don't examine both of their schedules all that closely,
10:14
Speaker 1: but I think they could rack up some obviously some
10:17
Speaker 1: wins in the non conference. But I agree with you,
10:19
Speaker 1: they both have so many question marks with just some
10:22
Speaker 1: key positions and what they lost. I mean Northwestern losing
10:24
Speaker 1: Jalen Leach and Brooks Barnheiser. We kind of saw what
10:27
Speaker 1: that team looked like later in the season without those guys.
10:30
Speaker 1: It was tough in Nebraska, I mean, losing Brice Williams.
10:34
Speaker 1: That's you know, he was such an important piece for them.
10:37
Speaker 1: So I do feel like those are two teams that
10:40
Speaker 1: by season's in, we could say we missed on one
10:43
Speaker 1: of them and they worked their way into the bubble conversation.
10:45
Speaker 1: But I think for a starting point with both of them,
10:49
Speaker 1: that's probably a fair spot for both of them.
10:53
Speaker 2: And to add, they both went seven and thirteen in
10:55
Speaker 2: the conference last year, And you know, I don't think
10:58
Speaker 2: there's a world either one of those teams is like
11:00
Speaker 2: non competitive. To your point, they're gonna win home games
11:03
Speaker 2: and be a tough out any given night. But I
11:06
Speaker 2: think the baseline expectation is almost in that, you know,
11:08
Speaker 2: six to eight wins category for either. I would say
11:12
Speaker 2: this this tier we're about to get to, I would
11:14
Speaker 2: bet really good money that at least one, if not two,
11:18
Speaker 2: of the teams in the tier we're about to talk about,
11:21
Speaker 2: ends up finishing below Nebraska Northwestern. There's some more volatility
11:25
Speaker 2: in this upcoming tier, but there's also higher upside.
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Speaker 1: So is this the biggest tier of the five for
11:31
Speaker 1: you in terms of number of teams?
11:33
Speaker 2: By far the biggest tier for me?
11:34
Speaker 1: How many? How many you have here?
11:36
Speaker 2: I have six teams in my on the bubble tier, okay?
11:41
Speaker 1: And who are those who are those six?
11:43
Speaker 2: I have Washington, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State and USC. Now,
11:51
Speaker 2: if if I don't know, if we were being even
11:56
Speaker 2: more creative on this, I like the way you tiered this,
11:59
Speaker 2: you could are you to me that there's a sixth
12:01
Speaker 2: tier that I would just throw Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland
12:05
Speaker 2: into basically brand new hires. We like the rosters. At
12:11
Speaker 2: least one of these guys is going to have like
12:13
Speaker 2: a top twenty five good team, and the other two
12:16
Speaker 2: probably should be around the NCAA tournament. But you know,
12:20
Speaker 2: when I've talked about this offseason, I really just don't
12:23
Speaker 2: know which ones to trust. Quite frankly, I like all
12:26
Speaker 2: three on paper. I think Ben McCollums resume speaks for itself.
12:30
Speaker 2: I think DeVries clearly is a great cultural fit at Indiana,
12:33
Speaker 2: and I was impressed with how they looked overseas. And
12:36
Speaker 2: I think Buzz Williams gets a bad rap. He has
12:39
Speaker 2: such a high floor as a coach. I mean, Maryland
12:41
Speaker 2: probably has the most questions with what they've done from
12:44
Speaker 2: a roster standpoint, But I don't know how you don't
12:46
Speaker 2: look at what he was able to do in the
12:48
Speaker 2: SEC these last three or four years, always have his
12:51
Speaker 2: teams firmly in the tournament and think that that guy
12:53
Speaker 2: could win games at Maryland in the Big ten in
12:55
Speaker 2: year one. So you know, for me, it's easy to
12:58
Speaker 2: just kind of lump them together. I don't think there's
13:00
Speaker 2: any teams in this tier that I feel are can't
13:05
Speaker 2: miss enough that you need to elevate them into the
13:08
Speaker 2: solid NCAA tournament picture. But you know, the beautiful thing
13:11
Speaker 2: about this league, I would bet four, if not five,
13:14
Speaker 2: of these teams end up making the tournament, even if
13:17
Speaker 2: they're sweating a little bit on selection Sunday. Washington, just
13:21
Speaker 2: a single one out Washington is the one that I
13:23
Speaker 2: would bet the most on here because I love this roster.
13:27
Speaker 2: I think they are deep. I think they've got serious talent.
13:31
Speaker 2: JJ Mandiquit was a kid that looked great in the
13:33
Speaker 2: Feeble World Cup U eighteen summer training camp stuff and
13:37
Speaker 2: he may not even have a huge role on this team.
13:40
Speaker 2: Hans Steinbach was arguably the best international player at the
13:43
Speaker 2: entire event. And then you've got guys that they stole
13:47
Speaker 2: from one of the other West Coast teams in Wesley Yates,
13:49
Speaker 2: who should be an obvious breakout Canadate. And you know,
13:52
Speaker 2: I don't love the pairing with desk Claude just saying
13:55
Speaker 2: let's run it back in new uniforms. But those are
13:57
Speaker 2: proven guys that it went sideways with must but that
14:01
Speaker 2: was largely because USC had no front court help. Washington
14:03
Speaker 2: has front court help. So if not for how Danny
14:06
Speaker 2: Sprinkle's first year went, and that kind of goes back
14:09
Speaker 2: to my point on how much should we trust the
14:11
Speaker 2: first year coaches. I think Sprinkle's a good guy with
14:14
Speaker 2: a very bright future. It just didn't come together for
14:17
Speaker 2: him in year one. And if that year was a
14:20
Speaker 2: raise from memory, I would probably put Washington higher on
14:23
Speaker 2: this list. But I think the safe thing to do
14:25
Speaker 2: with all these year one and year two guys who
14:27
Speaker 2: we just don't know is to lump them all together,
14:30
Speaker 2: admit that four of these are going to make the tournament,
14:32
Speaker 2: and it's kind of a fish in a barrel on who.
14:35
Speaker 1: Did you find it curious that Claude and Yates both
14:38
Speaker 1: ended up at the same place after last season?
14:41
Speaker 2: I did. I'm stunned that they would sign up for that,
14:45
Speaker 2: quite frankly, but you know, I think individually they're both
14:49
Speaker 2: very good players. I think from what I saw from
14:51
Speaker 2: USC last year, neither one of those guys was ever
14:54
Speaker 2: the problem. I mean, they were playing with the worst
14:56
Speaker 2: front court in the league, so in a weird way,
14:59
Speaker 2: the fact that they I do want to continue playing together,
15:01
Speaker 2: and I'm sure Nil played a part in it. Danny
15:04
Speaker 2: Sprinkle's spending some good money right now, it makes me
15:06
Speaker 2: optimistic that this could work because clearly there wasn't any
15:10
Speaker 2: friction issues that will carry over into this year. I think.
15:14
Speaker 1: So the one team I want to ask you about
15:15
Speaker 1: in that tier that we didn't really expand on Ohio State.
15:20
Speaker 1: I feel like this is more of an indictment on
15:24
Speaker 1: Jake Deebler than it is the actual talent on the roster,
15:26
Speaker 1: because you look at this roster and you say, I mean,
15:29
Speaker 1: they've got Bruce Thorton, They've got Mobley, they've got Devin Royal,
15:33
Speaker 1: three guys that we had in the top forty of
15:34
Speaker 1: our list, and you think this should be a team
15:37
Speaker 1: that's solidly in the NCAA tournament. And then you look
15:39
Speaker 1: at the fact that they've had Thornton the last three
15:42
Speaker 1: years haven't really haven't made the tournament. He's been an
15:45
Speaker 1: all Big ten type of player, specifically last year. Is
15:49
Speaker 1: this more of a you know, question mark in terms
15:52
Speaker 1: of Deeblo's ability to get this team enough wins to
15:55
Speaker 1: get them in the tournament?
15:57
Speaker 2: From your standpoint, so, I think this starting five is
16:01
Speaker 2: probably top fifteen to twenty good in the country. Now,
16:05
Speaker 2: the question for me, beyond just what is Jake Tepler doing,
16:09
Speaker 2: which is a very fair question, is do they have
16:12
Speaker 2: anything depth wise that will matter. I mean, the only
16:16
Speaker 2: proven player they're gonna bring off the bench is big
16:19
Speaker 2: Oh Josh. I don't know if I'm gonna bosch. They
16:21
Speaker 2: have O'john Wouna, I believe from Baylor. He's been a
16:25
Speaker 2: good bench big his whole career. I mean, a guy
16:27
Speaker 2: that theoretically will give you great secondary center minutes. But
16:32
Speaker 2: to me, they're gonna be very top heavy. They're gonna
16:35
Speaker 2: need thirty five minutes from Bruce Thornton, which he's done before.
16:38
Speaker 2: Devin Royal, which he hasn't done before, and probably Mobile.
16:42
Speaker 2: I don't really buy a Tyson Chapman year two breakout
16:47
Speaker 2: after he missed all of last year with injury. He
16:49
Speaker 2: was a prestigious recruit, but it hasn't looked the part yet.
16:51
Speaker 2: And nobody else off the bench is a proven player
16:54
Speaker 2: at the Division IE level, let alone the High Major
16:57
Speaker 2: Big ten level, so you know it's star heavy. Bruce
17:01
Speaker 2: Thornton is not a guy I personally want to attach myself.
17:04
Speaker 1: To, so same saying.
17:06
Speaker 2: If we could swap them coaches with somebody else in
17:09
Speaker 2: this league, they're probably up one tier solidly in the tournament.
17:13
Speaker 2: But let's be honest, it's not gonna surprise either of us,
17:15
Speaker 2: is that if this team misses the turn fifth.
17:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, Thornton and Mobile are gonna have to play thirty
17:20
Speaker 1: six thirty seven minutes. Becauld you look at the I
17:21
Speaker 1: mean Gabe Cups is I think the backup point guard.
17:23
Speaker 1: And nothing against Gabe Cups, but we saw him play
17:26
Speaker 1: as a freshman in Indiana. He was timid, looked scared to shoot.
17:30
Speaker 1: Who knows, maybe he's better with a couple of years
17:32
Speaker 1: under his belt. Red shirting last year but this is
17:35
Speaker 1: the guard depth there scares me. So moving into the
17:38
Speaker 1: next tier, which I believe, we have seven teams left Illinois,
17:41
Speaker 1: Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio or Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin. These
17:46
Speaker 1: are solid NCAA tournament teams, but not necessarily teams that
17:50
Speaker 1: you would predict to, let's say, win the Big ten
17:53
Speaker 1: or go to the Elite eight. Who is in this
17:56
Speaker 1: tier for you?
17:58
Speaker 2: You know? I think the hardest part for me of
18:00
Speaker 2: hearing this up was figuring out where to put the
18:04
Speaker 2: group of seven that is still to come here, how
18:07
Speaker 2: to divvy them up. I think there's an argument you
18:09
Speaker 2: could put Purdue completely in a tier of their own,
18:12
Speaker 2: and there's an argument you could put I don't know,
18:14
Speaker 2: five or six of these teams I'm about to name
18:16
Speaker 2: all in the top tier of making a deep run
18:18
Speaker 2: and being contenders to win the league. So the way
18:21
Speaker 2: I ended up going with, I put four teams in
18:24
Speaker 2: the solid le NCAA Tournament teams category, and I'll work
18:29
Speaker 2: down the list in order of how I view them
18:32
Speaker 2: for this upcoming year. I would have Wisconsin fourth, the
18:36
Speaker 2: closest to the very top tier. I'm buying Greg gard
18:40
Speaker 2: in general, at this point. I mean, when he has
18:43
Speaker 2: a first team All Conference caliber player, he's been in
18:47
Speaker 2: the mix. I mean he has been a top four
18:49
Speaker 2: team repeatedly in the last few years, when he's had
18:52
Speaker 2: a Johnny Davis or a John Todji. Now, even look
18:56
Speaker 2: at aj Store and how horrible he looked at Kansas
18:59
Speaker 2: he was in his one year at Wisconsin. So I
19:02
Speaker 2: think there's a very safe argument here that Greg guard
19:05
Speaker 2: will will optimize the guys he's got. John Blackwell is
19:09
Speaker 2: a huge breakout candidate. For me, I will not be
19:12
Speaker 2: surprised whatsoever if he's a top five player in the league.
19:15
Speaker 2: Nolan Winter in the front court, I think has been
19:17
Speaker 2: waiting for his opportunity and has all the talent in
19:19
Speaker 2: the world. And you know Nick Boyd, a former one
19:23
Speaker 2: of the guys from the Florida Atlantic teams that had
19:26
Speaker 2: some really good seasons. I think it is a player
19:29
Speaker 2: I really believe will establish a high floor for this group.
19:32
Speaker 2: So you know, Wisconsin, I really flirted with putting them
19:34
Speaker 2: in the National Contenders tier, but I ended up putting
19:37
Speaker 2: them in Tier two just because I think they're a
19:39
Speaker 2: little bit less talented than the best of the best
19:41
Speaker 2: in this League. From there on, I went with Oregon,
19:44
Speaker 2: Michigan State, and Illinois, three teams that I think are
19:49
Speaker 2: all very big in variation. I think Oregon's upside with
19:56
Speaker 2: their star power. You know, they could make a Final
19:58
Speaker 2: four in March. I wouldn't bet on it, but to me,
20:02
Speaker 2: if that happens, they probably finished in the league fourth,
20:04
Speaker 2: fifth or sixth and then surprise people and make like
20:07
Speaker 2: a six seed magical run where Shell's dad makes clutch shots.
20:11
Speaker 2: Michigan State it feels weird not putting them in the
20:13
Speaker 2: top tier given what tom Izzo is, But I hated
20:16
Speaker 2: their offseason. I hated this offseason for the Spartans. I
20:20
Speaker 2: think Trey Holloman was a huge loss that everyone shrugged aside,
20:24
Speaker 2: and he was their culture guy. He should be the
20:27
Speaker 2: captain on this team. He's gone for a paycheck, and
20:30
Speaker 2: I think that's a rather large hit to the entire
20:32
Speaker 2: tom Izzo operation. I think Trey Fort is the guy
20:36
Speaker 2: they're gonna expect to replace Jase richardson shot making. To me,
20:40
Speaker 2: Trey Fort is a bucket ball product from the Sanford system,
20:44
Speaker 2: and if you go through the history of guys that
20:46
Speaker 2: looked great at Samford and then try to go up
20:48
Speaker 2: a level to power five basketball. It's not pretty, So
20:53
Speaker 2: you know you're leaning on Jeremy Fears and Cohen car
20:55
Speaker 2: to carry water there. Respectfully, if those guys are fourth
20:58
Speaker 2: and fifth on your team, I think you can win
21:00
Speaker 2: the league. If they're first and second on your team,
21:03
Speaker 2: I don't think your offense is going to be very good.
21:05
Speaker 2: So to me, it's almost a bump up for Izzo
21:08
Speaker 2: respect wise to have them here. Other people won't like that,
21:12
Speaker 2: but to me, if it was coached by anyone else,
21:15
Speaker 2: this roster would probably be in my bubble category. And
21:18
Speaker 2: then lastly, Illinois, this is the one team I'm lower
21:20
Speaker 2: on than consensus. I would say another one for me
21:24
Speaker 2: where I think they're over correcting a little bit to
21:30
Speaker 2: the youth experiment last year where Yakashonas and Riley I
21:35
Speaker 2: think are taking a lot of the blame for the
21:37
Speaker 2: inconsistencies that team had, when in reality, that team could
21:41
Speaker 2: not shoot, that team did not defend at a very
21:44
Speaker 2: high level at times, and those were issues that guys
21:48
Speaker 2: like Kylin Boswell and benham Rickhouse were responsible for. Now
21:51
Speaker 2: they're back expected to be in big roles, and you
21:55
Speaker 2: bring in some twenty two year old Serbians instead of
21:58
Speaker 2: the nineteen year old line. He pick serbians. I'm not
22:02
Speaker 2: super into a team that is going to be centered
22:05
Speaker 2: around Tom avisag is the go to guy. I think
22:08
Speaker 2: Maras Johnson was a huge cultural loss for them the
22:10
Speaker 2: way Holloman was for Michigan State. And uh, for me,
22:13
Speaker 2: it's a sign of respect to Brad Underwood and Tom
22:15
Speaker 2: Izzo to have them firmly in this tier as is.
22:18
Speaker 2: But I don't see a world where those teams compete
22:21
Speaker 2: for the big ten crown. Yeah.
22:23
Speaker 1: I agree with you one hundred percent on Michigan State.
22:26
Speaker 1: If if you just look at the roster of the
22:28
Speaker 1: seven teams that kind of you can have in these
22:30
Speaker 1: top two tiers, I think they clearly have the worst
22:33
Speaker 1: roster of the seven. I don't.
22:37
Speaker 2: You know.
22:37
Speaker 1: I understand the idea behind Izzo not wanting to go
22:40
Speaker 1: portal heavy, but at some point you have to embrace
22:45
Speaker 1: kind of what the system is at this point, and
22:47
Speaker 1: I don't think he's fully done that. I agret I
22:49
Speaker 1: didn't like the offseason that they had, and well, I
22:52
Speaker 1: do think Fears and car and Kohler could be a
22:55
Speaker 1: solid trio to build around. I don't see a star group,
23:00
Speaker 1: so I think, like I think the best case scenario
23:03
Speaker 1: is they're a solid and CAA tournament team. But I
23:05
Speaker 1: also do think they could have their fair share of
23:08
Speaker 1: struggles and then potentially be a bubble team. So it'll
23:11
Speaker 1: be interesting to see how that works out. Illinois, I
23:13
Speaker 1: don't know what to make because I, you know, I
23:15
Speaker 1: don't know any of the players other than watching scouting
23:20
Speaker 1: video of two or three minutes that they brought in
23:22
Speaker 1: to know enough about how those guys are going to translate.
23:25
Speaker 1: They kind of obviously had a ton of talent last year,
23:28
Speaker 1: and you know, at one point in the season I
23:31
Speaker 1: looked at him and thought, you know, this could be
23:33
Speaker 1: a team that makes it a really deep run. And
23:35
Speaker 1: then they get destroyed by what was a duke in
23:37
Speaker 1: that non conference game late in the season. It's like,
23:39
Speaker 1: you know, they're just kind of all over the place
23:42
Speaker 1: that they didn't defend well enough. I don't know that
23:45
Speaker 1: those issues are going to be fixed at all. So
23:47
Speaker 1: I agree with you on all of those teams. So
23:51
Speaker 1: I'm guessing your top three just by process of elimination.
23:55
Speaker 1: Here we've got Michigan purduing UCLA, and that tier yeah,
23:59
Speaker 1: that's a you must love what UCLA did in the offseason.
24:03
Speaker 2: I do, I really do. I think I am probably
24:06
Speaker 2: one of the highest on UCLA Big Ten fans or
24:10
Speaker 2: whatever you want to call me that I've seen. So
24:14
Speaker 2: I really think it depends on how you view last
24:16
Speaker 2: season for UCLA, what you believe their upside is this season.
24:22
Speaker 2: I thought they were pretty awesome last year, and that
24:26
Speaker 2: is not the consensus here, and I get it. But
24:30
Speaker 2: finished twentieth in Ken Palm twenty three and eleven. The
24:33
Speaker 2: disaster stretch for that team was a four game losing
24:37
Speaker 2: streak that included three trips East Coast, where they went
24:41
Speaker 2: to Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers, all in the same ten
24:45
Speaker 2: day span in which the Los Angeles wildfires broke out.
24:50
Speaker 2: I don't know how you can hold that against them.
24:53
Speaker 2: And I understand that Mick Cronin is kind of this
24:56
Speaker 2: curmudgeon guy that's easy to hate. I'm certainly not a
25:00
Speaker 2: mc cronan guy either, and he said some crazy things
25:03
Speaker 2: as they went through that span. But I mean, before
25:07
Speaker 2: that tragedy occurred, this was a team that got to
25:10
Speaker 2: win against Arizona, a win against Gonzaga in the non
25:14
Speaker 2: conference and when on an eight game win streak in
25:18
Speaker 2: Big Ten play after they kind of got their feet
25:21
Speaker 2: underneath them again. So to me, I did not like
25:25
Speaker 2: their roster last year, largely because I hated their guards.
25:29
Speaker 2: I just never wanted to believe in Dylan Andrews and
25:33
Speaker 2: Sebastian Mack as a duo. To me, they have maybe
25:37
Speaker 2: the most clean we fixed this problem spot in the
25:41
Speaker 2: entire country. Donovan Dent is one of the best point
25:44
Speaker 2: guards in the nation. He's electric. He's a guy who
25:47
Speaker 2: can carry a team to wins. And there are some
25:50
Speaker 2: stylistic questions on how it's gonna mesh with, you know,
25:53
Speaker 2: the way McK cronan wants to play. But I just
25:57
Speaker 2: think that mc cronin is a guy who has built
25:59
Speaker 2: team around offensive engine types. You think back to the
26:02
Speaker 2: High may Hawk as years, Johnny Juzang years. Even He's
26:06
Speaker 2: gonna be able to win games with how good of
26:09
Speaker 2: a defensive coach he is when you have an offensive
26:12
Speaker 2: superstar like Dent. I know there are some people who
26:15
Speaker 2: believe the front court still has issues, and Tyler Billadout
26:19
Speaker 2: is certainly not a great defender. I don't think Xavier
26:21
Speaker 2: Booker is gonna be an impact player on this team
26:24
Speaker 2: at all. That's not part of my pitch on UCLA.
26:27
Speaker 2: But I don't think they need him to be really truly.
26:30
Speaker 2: I think they can win games going small with Tyler
26:33
Speaker 2: billet out and Eric Day manning the four and five,
26:36
Speaker 2: and the upgrade of the guard spot is enough to
26:38
Speaker 2: take them from twentieth in the country into really the
26:41
Speaker 2: top ten in the country for me.
26:43
Speaker 1: And then your top two. How do you kind of
26:46
Speaker 1: make rank these two teams? I mean, I think most
26:49
Speaker 1: people would say Purdue the favor in the preseason, but
26:52
Speaker 1: I look at Bart Torvik. I think right now he's
26:54
Speaker 1: got Michigan ahead. So is it close between these two?
26:57
Speaker 1: Are are you going with Purdue over Michigan?
27:00
Speaker 2: It's not close for me now. Just ranking upside, I
27:03
Speaker 2: think you can argue Michigan's upside is top five in
27:06
Speaker 2: the country good. But I also think Michigan is the
27:09
Speaker 2: most volatile team out of the entire top seven here,
27:13
Speaker 2: And as a Michigan fan, I say that, but I'm
27:15
Speaker 2: perfectly comfortable saying it. Yax Se Lendeborg's amazing. I think
27:21
Speaker 2: him in the Danny Wolf role again, kind of like
27:24
Speaker 2: Dent at UCLA, I think it's one of those things
27:26
Speaker 2: that is just a perfect fit and a huge, honestly upgrade.
27:30
Speaker 2: As crazy as that sounds, Danny at times, I think
27:34
Speaker 2: they had to play through him more than they wanted
27:37
Speaker 2: to because of the limitations they had at Point Guard.
27:40
Speaker 2: I don't think there's going to be many moments this
27:42
Speaker 2: year where you're feeling forced to get the ball to
27:45
Speaker 2: Yaxe Lendeborg and letting him inflict pain on an opponent.
27:50
Speaker 2: I am not an Adaimara believer. I am not an
27:53
Speaker 2: Elliott Cado believer. And if you want to buy the
27:57
Speaker 2: Michigan upside pitch, you have to buy both of those guys,
28:00
Speaker 2: not one of those guys. I understand the reasons to
28:03
Speaker 2: believe in them. I think Mara's in a system defensively
28:07
Speaker 2: that will work with the things he does well and
28:10
Speaker 2: hide the things he does poorly. I think you could
28:12
Speaker 2: argue the same with Cadeo. Dusty May is a great
28:15
Speaker 2: guards coach and a very fun system to play in,
28:17
Speaker 2: But at the same time, Cado's turnover issues are not
28:21
Speaker 2: going to be helped by the freedom that a Dusty
28:23
Speaker 2: may offense brings, and they really don't have much of
28:27
Speaker 2: an insurance plan. To me, the thing you can nitpick
28:30
Speaker 2: about Michigan is that if Cadeau does not take a leap,
28:35
Speaker 2: you don't have an alternative. They really don't have a
28:38
Speaker 2: backup point guard they're going to turn to other than
28:41
Speaker 2: getting creative and having Yakxel be this jumbo power point forward.
28:45
Speaker 2: So for me, there are people who believe in Caddo.
28:48
Speaker 2: If you believe in Caddell, you should have Michigan very
28:51
Speaker 2: close to Purdue. I'm not one of those people. I
28:53
Speaker 2: just really was disgusted by his development at North Carolina
28:56
Speaker 2: and the way the brand of basketball he plays to
28:59
Speaker 2: be honest with you, So they're so deep. I mean,
29:02
Speaker 2: Trey mckenney's a stud who would start on most of
29:04
Speaker 2: these teams. He's Michigan's eighth or ninth guy coming into
29:06
Speaker 2: the season, and I think Dusty May has a pretty
29:09
Speaker 2: high floor with how he's coaching right now. So to
29:12
Speaker 2: me comfortable too. For Michigan, Perdue is just Perdue. And
29:17
Speaker 2: if I want to play skeptical devil's advocate to this team,
29:21
Speaker 2: I would point out that it was their defense, their rebounding,
29:24
Speaker 2: their lack of im protection last year that had this
29:27
Speaker 2: team in a spot to finish tied for fifth in
29:30
Speaker 2: the league with no banners and no deep march run.
29:34
Speaker 2: And as good as some of the additions they've made are,
29:39
Speaker 2: they didn't address the biggest problems from last year's season.
29:42
Speaker 2: Omer Meyer and Oscar Kluffer are not going to fix
29:45
Speaker 2: this team defensively, and if those are the best five
29:48
Speaker 2: in between Fletcher Lawier, Braden Smith, and Trey Kauffman Rehn,
29:51
Speaker 2: I think we'll basically just see a souped up version
29:54
Speaker 2: of what last year's team was. So you know, that
29:57
Speaker 2: team was between fifteen and twentieth n nationally. I expect
30:01
Speaker 2: this team to be one of the best two or
30:04
Speaker 2: three teams in the country. That's my expectation for Purdue,
30:07
Speaker 2: but I think it's gonna be largely because they have
30:09
Speaker 2: the best offense in the sport and smart teams that
30:12
Speaker 2: are well built to exploit some of those weaknesses. I
30:15
Speaker 2: think we'll still be able to get to Purdue, but yeah,
30:18
Speaker 2: to me, they're in a tier of their own. Is
30:20
Speaker 2: the only favorite in this league.
30:22
Speaker 1: Last thing before we get you out of here, is
30:25
Speaker 1: is this a year that you could see the national
30:27
Speaker 1: championship drought ending for the Big Ten? I feel like
30:30
Speaker 1: we have this conversation every year. It's been since two thousand,
30:34
Speaker 1: which is crazy to think about it. I mean, the
30:36
Speaker 1: longer this goes on, it's like, you know, I know
30:39
Speaker 1: there's a lot of luck and chance in terms of
30:40
Speaker 1: the NCAA tournament, but at some point you feel like
30:43
Speaker 1: the Big ten is going to have to break through, right,
30:46
Speaker 1: you would.
30:46
Speaker 2: Think at some point for sure, I think if you're
30:49
Speaker 2: playing that game, it has to be Purdue that you're
30:52
Speaker 2: banking on. I really would be stunned if anyone outside
30:55
Speaker 2: of Matt Painters group does this. I will say, if
30:58
Speaker 2: we're going through the last twenty years and trying to
31:00
Speaker 2: pick out individual teams or spots where we're like that
31:04
Speaker 2: was our best chance as a league, this is a
31:06
Speaker 2: pretty good one because the top of the sport, to me,
31:09
Speaker 2: is a little more wide open than it's been. Oddly enough,
31:12
Speaker 2: I think the transfer portal nil era has Weirdly, it
31:16
Speaker 2: hasn't created parody to the mid major level, but it
31:19
Speaker 2: has created some parody within the elite teams because everybody's
31:23
Speaker 2: spending money. Now it's not just three or four schools
31:25
Speaker 2: that are so I think, you know, they're the favorite
31:29
Speaker 2: on paper, the Final four is in the home state,
31:32
Speaker 2: and in a lot of ways, when you have a
31:34
Speaker 2: National Player of the Year candidate, another All American with him,
31:37
Speaker 2: three guys that started in a national championship game two
31:40
Speaker 2: years ago, it's fair to say this should be the year.
31:43
Speaker 2: It's probably going to be Matt Paynter's best shot at it.
31:47
Speaker 2: There are reasons you can pick holes in it as well,
31:49
Speaker 2: but right now they're my national title pick Alex. As
31:52
Speaker 2: much as that probably pains your Indiana listeners to hear.
31:55
Speaker 1: Hey, you know what, the Big Ten's got to get
31:56
Speaker 1: a championship at some point, so well, Indiana fans will
32:02
Speaker 1: hope it did somebody else, but I agree with you
32:04
Speaker 1: in the preseason. If you're going to pick a Big
32:05
Speaker 1: Ten team, it's got to be produe. Greg, thank you
32:08
Speaker 1: as always for being gracious with your time. Coming on
32:10
Speaker 1: the show brought a ton of I mean we went
32:13
Speaker 1: through what eighteen Big Ten teams in just a little
32:15
Speaker 1: bit over a half hours, so that's a quick way
32:17
Speaker 1: to do it. I really appreciate the time. And for
32:19
Speaker 1: those who haven't checked Greg and Carter's workout, check them
32:22
Speaker 1: out on social media, YouTube, sleepers media. You guys are
32:26
Speaker 1: putting out stuff every day, you do any football stuff
32:28
Speaker 1: as well.
32:29
Speaker 2: We lean a little bit into football. We did more
32:31
Speaker 2: last year, but we're still don't worry. We got our
32:34
Speaker 2: eyes on Signetty at all times.
32:36
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Thanks everybody as always for listening, Thanks
32:39
Speaker 1: Greg for coming on the show, and we'll be back
32:41
Speaker 1: soon with another episode of Podcast on the Break.