Latest / The Nation Podcasts / Winning State Legislatures and Winning Midterm Elections / Start Making Sense

Transcript

Winning State Legislatures and Winning Midterm Elections / Start Making Sense · The Nation Podcasts

0:08
[SPEAKER_00]: From the nation magazine, this is start making sense.
0:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm John Weiner.
0:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Later in the show, this week's polls and this week's primaries have nothing but bad news for Trump and his followers.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: John Nichols has our analysis.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: But first, state legislatures have a lot of power in America.
0:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Daniel Squadron will explain in a minute.
0:33
[SPEAKER_00]: What is to be done now to counter Donald Trump?
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Even though the Supreme Court is pretty much done away with the Voting Rights Act, Democrats still seem like we're going to win control of the House and maybe the Senate this November, but Trump will still be President until January 20th.
0:50
[SPEAKER_00]: twenty twenty nine and we'll be able to veto any law a democratic congress passes.
0:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So what is to be done?
0:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Daniel Squadron has a strategy.
1:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a really good one.
1:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Focus on women legislatures in the states because state legislatures have a lot of power in America.
1:12
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the co-founder and co-executive
1:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, he's got a new book out.
1:21
[SPEAKER_00]: It's called the fourth branch.
1:23
[SPEAKER_00]: How state government can save our union?
1:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Danielle Squadron will come back.
1:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you so much.
1:29
[SPEAKER_00]: It's great to be here.
1:30
[SPEAKER_00]: You say state legislatures have a lot of power.
1:33
[SPEAKER_01]: How much power do they have?
1:35
[SPEAKER_01]: More than just about any of your listeners could possibly imagine.
1:38
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, if you think of whatever domestic policy issue you most care about.
1:44
[SPEAKER_01]: odds are a lot of folks thought about civil rights, or the existence of our democracy, energy costs, or climate change, minimum wages, or clean air, and water, gun safety, how about healthcare?
1:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Or healthcare?
1:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say in the last 15 years, states have done more harm or good on those issues than Congressists.
2:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So of course, to take healthcare, we know that Obama care was a seminal achievement, but you know that a large
2:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Part of it, maybe the largest part, which was the expansion of Medicaid, to many more people, required states to act.
2:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Today, sitting here 17 years after it passed, there are still nearly 100 million Americans who are not benefiting from Obamacare from that expansion of Medicaid, because states have failed to act.
2:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, now it's time for your Minnesota moment that's news from my hometown of Saint Paul that you won't get from Sean Hannity.
2:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Minnesota shows what you can do with the trifecta in the midterms of 2022.
2:49
[SPEAKER_00]: The DFL, which is what we call the Democratic Party in Minnesota, the Democratic Farmers Labor Party.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: The DFL flipped the state senate and maintained their majority in the state house.
3:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Before this, the legislature had been under what they called split control for a decade, Minnesota had already elected Tim Waltz governor.
3:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So in 2023, the Minnesota legislature passed and Governor Waltz signed new laws guaranteeing 12 weeks of paid family leave in medical leave, free public college tuition for lower income minisotans, a new child tax credit, free lunch for all public school students, drivers licenses for all residents regardless of immigration status.
3:36
[SPEAKER_00]: stronger protections for unionizing campaigns, the restoration of voting rights for convicted felons, new protections for abortion rights, and a trans refugee law that protects trans children traveling to Minnesota to receive gender affirming care when they're coming from states that would punish them.
3:58
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what you can do with the trifecta.
4:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is a story that actually was mostly untold and overlooked.
4:06
[SPEAKER_01]: There's all of this stuff happening.
4:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Stuff that will give you hope, stuff that will make you concern, stuff that makes you think.
4:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's happily in the States, and no one's talking about it.
4:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And the book is really about that.
4:19
[SPEAKER_01]: The power of states to do these kinds of things, but also something else that I learned in my decade as a state lawmaker,
4:30
[SPEAKER_01]: are largely made by the narrowest special interests that are in the capital every day and sort of the chance of people's individual personalities, which are much less muted in the state legislative context and the national context.
4:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Flag of focus.
4:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And then more than anything that tiny numbers of people getting involved changed the outcome.
4:55
[SPEAKER_01]: That Minnesota majority was both one and lost in both cases because it was one in 2022 and then unfortunately we've lost the house majority in 2024 by just a few hundred votes, a few hundred people.
5:07
[SPEAKER_01]: The campaigns for the entire effort for a whole legislative chamber are less than a single congressional district.
5:13
[SPEAKER_01]: If people focus on this and do something about it,
5:17
[SPEAKER_01]: the opportunity to have an impact is right there for them.
5:21
[SPEAKER_00]: But what about Virginia?
5:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Virginia?
5:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We won a trifecta a few months ago.
5:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Abigail Spannberger became governor, Democrats won control of both houses in the state legislature.
5:35
[SPEAKER_00]: They followed the plan.
5:37
[SPEAKER_00]: They passed a redistricting initiative to bring to the voters that would change the state constitution to empower the voters to create
5:46
[SPEAKER_00]: for new Democratic districts for the House of Representatives to refer in the past, but then I think you remember this, the State Supreme Court of Virginia overturned that referendum an obscure technicality.
6:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So Virginia will not have for new Democratic representatives in Washington next year.
6:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe they'll have two.
6:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So
6:10
[SPEAKER_00]: What about Virginia?
6:12
[SPEAKER_00]: We got a trifecta, but it did not succeed in redistricting because of the state Supreme Court.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we learned that in Virginia, the state Supreme Court is selected by the state legislature.
6:26
[SPEAKER_00]: So
6:27
[SPEAKER_00]: How did we get here?
6:29
[SPEAKER_01]: That's a story that started when Donald Trump, President Trump, personally called Texas State lawmakers, right around the horrible tragedy it can't mystic on the Guadalupe River.
6:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And use that as an excuse with Greg Abbott to come in.
6:45
[SPEAKER_01]: and change the maps in Texas to increase the number of Republicans that would go to Congress in the middle of the day.
6:53
[SPEAKER_01]: That was the starting point and it became an arms race.
6:56
[SPEAKER_01]: As you point out, the Virginia State lawmakers, including the House just a few days before every member was on the ballot and before it that decision was decided wrongly, decided to do something about this and give Virginia voters the chance to restore fairness to the congressional map.
7:13
[SPEAKER_01]: As you point out, a wildly politicized Virginia court did something that is basically unprecedented, which is nullified the votes of three million Virginians after they hit vote.
7:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's what's wild about that if you think of the power states.
7:29
[SPEAKER_01]: The reason that court had a four, three, highly politicized majority,
7:34
[SPEAKER_01]: is in the 2021 Virginia legislative elections.
7:38
[SPEAKER_01]: There is a one-seat majority for Republicans that confirmed the justice, the cast, the deciding vote.
7:47
[SPEAKER_01]: If that one seat in the Virginia legislature in 2021 had gone differently, then there would have been a different outcome and the legislature would have succeeded in offsetting the power of Donald Trump.
7:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Donald Trump wants to centralize power.
8:04
[SPEAKER_01]: wants to take power from states, if it can undermine our democracy, he wants to give power back to states, but it undermine our democracy.
8:10
[SPEAKER_01]: That's his goal.
8:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know the only folks effectively pushing back against this, state lawmakers, and it's not always going to succeed, but it is where things are happening and failing in this country.
8:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, I have another, what about?
8:25
[SPEAKER_00]: What about the states where Republicans have a trifecta?
8:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Republicans have been much better at this over the last couple of decades.
8:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you know about this too.
8:34
[SPEAKER_00]: At winning trifectas right now, there are about 23 states with Republican trifectas.
8:40
[SPEAKER_00]: What does the states project have to say about them?
8:42
[SPEAKER_01]: The reason Republicans are conservatives of over-reformed in states.
8:47
[SPEAKER_01]: for the last 50 years, is they made the choice to overperform in states.
8:53
[SPEAKER_01]: The same guy, and I talked about this in the book, the same guy who founded the Heritage Foundation, founded Alec, the American Legislative Exchange Council, all wiper.
9:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And he wasn't even trying to just get Republican power.
9:04
[SPEAKER_01]: He was an idyllah who was upset about Barry Goldwater losing the presidency.
9:10
[SPEAKER_01]: He was upset about the voting rights act and the great society.
9:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And he was upset about Vatican II with the modernization of the Catholic Church.
9:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And he wanted to bring back the conservatism and a traditionalism through American government and built institutions that are creating outside power in states for that movement
9:35
[SPEAKER_01]: and allies focused on it.
9:37
[SPEAKER_01]: We have to do the same if we're going to get back to reflect into people's well in the country.
9:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And one of the things the states project can do is run candidates to break up the trifectas in those Republican states.
9:52
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not going to get a democratic trifecta, but in some of those, we can prevent Republicans from getting the trifecta.
10:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely, and in fact, in
10:02
[SPEAKER_01]: place like Arizona and Michigan, also good material elections, and I hope those go well for my point of view, but I could be the only thing that prevents those states from becoming trifectors that I really fear in 2028 could undermine a free and fair presidential election.
10:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that if you take Donald Trump and J.D.
10:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Bass at their word, they would prefer that these elections get decided before anyone votes, I think the Virginia court just gave us even further evidence of that.
10:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And so you need to be fighting.
10:34
[SPEAKER_01]: And there are people talking about who wins the presidency, what about whether we have a well-administered election with fair election laws?
10:42
[SPEAKER_01]: That's going to be decided by who's in power and Arizona.
10:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's
10:49
[SPEAKER_01]: and North Carolina with the supermajority in the legislature and Wisconsin and Minnesota and Georgia, though that's a tough one, but worth fighting for.
10:58
[SPEAKER_01]: This is where the country's future gets get strong.
11:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, let's talk about priorities for right now.
11:08
[SPEAKER_00]: My priority is my home state of Minnesota.
11:11
[SPEAKER_00]: In the state Senate, the DFL, the Democrats right now, have a one-seat majority, 34 to 33.
11:18
[SPEAKER_00]: They have to defend every seat and maybe win another couple.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: In the State House, there's a tie, and under the Minnesota State Constitution, the Lieutenant Governor does not have the power to break a tie, so Republicans in Minnesota, in the State House, can block everything, for example, they've blocked the State Legislature from investigating ice for killing Renee Good and Alex Pretty.
11:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature have blocked that.
11:49
[SPEAKER_00]: That's my top priority for the states, winning back the Minnesota trifecta, remind us again what yours are.
11:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, Minnesota is certainly on that list.
11:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Wisconsin has had Republican control now for years and is more competitive than has ever been in the state Senate and the state House.
12:11
[SPEAKER_01]: You could have a trifecta in Wisconsin that would fix all sorts of laws
12:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Guy Governor Scott Walker came in, changed it.
12:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Arizona has is a legislature that has been Republican for many of your listeners full lifetime.
12:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And the Republican Party in Arizona has become ever more extreme.
12:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is a place where you have incredible legislative leadership on the democratic side that I has been knocking at the door within a couple of seats and I think can get over the top.
12:45
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we talked about Minnesota and how they lost their trifecta.
12:48
[SPEAKER_01]: The other state that lost its trifecta in 2024 is Michigan.
12:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And in Michigan, you have a bear majority in 1918 for Democrats in the State Senate in the House of Republicans flipped it and have a cushion.
13:03
[SPEAKER_01]: But it is possible to win back the house there.
13:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And there you have a messy three-way governor's race where the sort of unclear what will happen.
13:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the legislature there is both a sword and a shield.
13:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember, Michigan is the state.
13:16
[SPEAKER_01]: were Donald Trump invited the, at the time, Republican leaders of both chambers of the legislature to the Oval Office after the 2020 election and said block certification of your state's votes.
13:30
[SPEAKER_01]: If you do that, we will be able to undo the results of this election.
13:35
[SPEAKER_01]: January 6th and everything that happened after was only because one of them refused.
13:39
[SPEAKER_01]: But Michigan is where the future of the
13:44
[SPEAKER_01]: North Carolina, Josh Stein has been a great governor.
13:47
[SPEAKER_01]: He's been facing sort of depending on the vote, a super majority that has overwritten the number of his videos on some terrible stuff.
13:55
[SPEAKER_01]: We've got to get rid of those super majorities so that the great Democratic leadership legislature can partner with governor Stein to stop bad things and actually start forcing negotiation for some good ones.
14:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm a little bit with states as I am with my children, among those which is my favorite
14:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes.
14:17
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... there's one other reason to focus on elections to state legislatures obama didn't obama start in the state legislator of elanoi state senator rock obama state assembly member hockey and jaffries state assembly member chock shumer state senator franken delino rosevelt state assemblyman fedor rosevelt i'm focusing on new yorkers here but it's not so damn the bench for the country and the future of the country starts
14:45
[SPEAKER_01]: in-state legislatures.
14:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't leave out house representatives Abraham Lincoln.
14:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
14:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for the bad.
14:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes.
14:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I also want to ask about the money.
14:57
[SPEAKER_00]: The state's project raises money to fund these candidates.
15:03
[SPEAKER_00]: But in my understanding, most candidates, when you give a money, the higher consultants, the consultants say spend money on TV ads, digital ads,
15:14
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no really good evidence that this kind of advertising wins undecided voters.
15:22
[SPEAKER_00]: What about wasting that money?
15:24
[SPEAKER_00]: What about spending that money wisely?
15:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this is something you've thought about too.
15:29
[SPEAKER_01]: A whole lot.
15:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I have spent my career.
15:33
[SPEAKER_01]: in politics and government.
15:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And as a result, I've gained a healthy skepticism that campaigns do much of anything.
15:43
[SPEAKER_01]: They do, but skepticism is healthy and appropriate.
15:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I know because I gotten to office originally in my late 20s when I guess a 30 year incumbent.
15:51
[SPEAKER_01]: into the state Senate, a race I had no business winning by knocking on nearly 10,000 doors personally.
15:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And that is a wildly potent way to do things in state legislatures because the districts are smaller.
16:06
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's not what consultants tell you to do because there's no fee.
16:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they tell you to sit in your dark room and just make phone calls to donors out of state special.
16:15
[SPEAKER_01]: The state's project tries to make it easy for candidates to go out and focus on the folks who they should be thinking about once we're going to hire them or fire them, their voters.
16:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Candidate Dornakin is hugely important, but it is also true when we have to say this, that because of how parties work and are focused in Washington DC, the campaign infrastructure and the campaign spending on things like TV ads and other paid communication,
16:44
[SPEAKER_01]: and earned communication, talking in the media, is vastly underdeveloped at the state level.
16:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And so at the state's project, we've just tried to create enough of a set of best practices so that folks know that the money they contributed to the state's project, the state's project, contributes to state legislative campaigns, will be spent well.
17:01
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no reason these campaigns should be run less professionally than competitive congressional races that every bit is important.
17:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And so we've done enormous research to get away from the assumptions.
17:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And it really does farten you.
17:15
[SPEAKER_01]: When you get past the myths and politics and I try to do this in the last section of the book and you start to see what really matters, you actually see what matters is like good politics, like the best kind of volunteer is someone who actually has credibility in the district.
17:28
[SPEAKER_01]: If you don't, you should probably be out raising money outside of the district to help people in the district do well.
17:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I'd like that idea, more
17:34
[SPEAKER_01]: knocking on doors going to the voters or the idea that we're not looking for a single savior here.
17:40
[SPEAKER_01]: We're looking to build coalitions across folks to have governing power to do something.
17:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I find all of those ideas inspiring and empowering.
17:51
[SPEAKER_00]: one last thing about your new book, The Fourth Branch.
17:55
[SPEAKER_00]: The forward to this book is written by Sarah Jessica Parker of Sex in the City.
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, we know she's a Democrat.
18:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I remember she endorsed Kamala Harris.
18:06
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't hear for a lot from here on about politics.
18:09
[SPEAKER_00]: How did you get it to write the forward to this book?
18:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, first of all, really, so grateful and she did a great job with it.
18:16
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, she is so focused on trying to figure out how people can have an impact.
18:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You talked about this in the forward.
18:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, she grew up in Ohio and was really, you know, grew up in a house where it was about having an impact.
18:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And the hardest thing we're getting to write the forward is she says, you know, people shouldn't listen to me in politics.
18:37
[SPEAKER_01]: People should do the thing that will have the biggest impact for them.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm just really grateful that she's determined that focusing on states with whatever your value system is, is the place to have the biggest impact.
18:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And I certainly can't speak for her, but that's what she talked about in the forward and I'm so grateful that she did.
18:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Daniel Squadron, co-founder of the state's project, online, at statesproject.org, at statesproject one word.
19:05
[SPEAKER_00]: He's also author of the new book, The Fourth Branch, how state government can save our union.
19:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Daniel, thanks for all your work, and thanks for talking with us today.
19:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Thanks for having me.
19:30
[SPEAKER_00]: For today's political update, we turn to John Nichols.
19:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, he's executive editor of the nation.
19:36
[SPEAKER_00]: We reached him today somewhere on the road between Detroit and Toledo.
19:41
[SPEAKER_00]: John, welcome back.
19:43
[SPEAKER_02]: It's great to be with you, John.
19:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the latest New York Times Cienapoll found that Trump's approval rating has hit in all time low, their headline was a crack in the polling floor, puts Trump in new territory.
20:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Times poll is, of course, the most authoritative, the most respected poll we have.
20:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They found American's disapprove of Trump's handling of every issue.
20:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Worst of all was his handling of the cost of living, just 28% of the public approve of Trump's efforts, 69% disapprove.
20:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Of course, this is a time when gas prices have reached historic highs because of Trump's war with Iran, and during a Q&A with reporters last week, sure you noticed this.
20:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump was asked, when you're negotiating with Iran, Mr. President, to what extent are Americans financial situations motivating you to make a deal?
20:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And without hesitating,
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: He answered, quote, not even a little bit.
20:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think about Americans' financial situation.
20:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think about anybody.
20:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Close quote, the president of the United States.
21:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, that's certainly a no-no for any politician.
21:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Was it just a slip-up?
21:06
[SPEAKER_02]: That was a pretty honest expression of where Donald Trump's head is at.
21:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I think at this point, it's working not at all for him.
21:14
[SPEAKER_02]: When you're down at a 28% approval rating, on the issue that people vote on, and remember, Carville was right.
21:21
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the economy's stupid.
21:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And when you're barely got a quarter of the people on your side, you want to be spending all of your time.
21:32
[SPEAKER_02]: trying to reconnect, right?
21:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Trying to let them know that you feel they're paying it.
21:37
[SPEAKER_02]: They're very least that you care about them.
21:40
[SPEAKER_02]: To say something like that, at this point, in a midterm election year, I think is something that is jaw-dropping.
21:48
[SPEAKER_02]: And also that it really does have the potential to show up in ads and in speeches and in debates going forward.
21:57
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's something that a lot of Democrats
22:03
[SPEAKER_00]: The New York Times poll also asked about the generic congressional ballot.
22:07
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the question, if the election were held now, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican?
22:13
[SPEAKER_00]: At this point, the Democratic lead has expanded to 11 points in the New York Times poll.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: That's real big.
22:33
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been watching these, you know, the generic polls for a very, very long time.
22:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And look, I think it has to be careful with the generic poll because it doesn't take in local factors and the quality of candidates and things like that.
22:46
[SPEAKER_02]: But when you get to these kinds of numbers, when you enter into the double digits, that is the underpinning, it always has been the underpinning per way of election.
22:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Senate Republican primary in Louisiana this weekend where the incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy was defeated because Trump came out against him.
23:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, a lot of our friends think the defeat of Bill Cassidy in the Louisiana Senate Republican primary is unfortunate.
23:21
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... since it will make republican politicians even less likely to cross trump then before uh... cassey got only twenty five percent of the republican vote pretty incredible for an incumbent uh... he had voted to impeach trump and it opposed him on some key personnel uh... nominations
23:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, I'm not sure I agree.
23:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It's unfortunate if more Republicans tie themselves tightly to the most unpopular president in American history, because that gives a Democrats a better chance of winning.
23:58
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you think?
24:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I think you're right, John, like Bill Cassidy was not just defeated.
24:07
[SPEAKER_02]: He was wiped out, 75% of primary voters voted against him.
24:11
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't come in second.
24:13
[SPEAKER_02]: He came in third and for an incumbent senator, that's a pretty hard thing to accomplish.
24:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think part of the challenge here is that Cassidy tried to kind of walk that thin line between opposing Trump on some very big things like impeachment, but also voting with Trump on some very big things like Robert F. Kennedy Jr's nomination to head health and human services.
24:39
[SPEAKER_02]: So at the end of the day, Cassidy gave nobody anything.
24:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Right.
24:45
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't give the Trump people what they wanted.
24:47
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't give, you know, people who are opposed to Trump what they wanted.
24:52
[SPEAKER_02]: And so he's running basically on his personality, which I don't think got him very far in Louisiana.
24:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, that doesn't necessarily translate every place.
25:01
[SPEAKER_02]: But.
25:02
[SPEAKER_02]: when you combine it with the message from Indiana about a week or so go where they had primary there and you had a group of Republican senators who had state senators who had opposed Trump and Trump came in in a very big way against them and most of them lost and in fact most of them lost pretty badly.
25:22
[SPEAKER_02]: what you get is this signal that the Republican party is coalescing around Trump.
25:27
[SPEAKER_02]: You may be sees surprises, there may be an individual who beats the curve or whatever, but by and large the message is very, very powerful.
25:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, what that means is that to get through their primaries.
25:41
[SPEAKER_02]: and even to get the level of support they're going to want from Trump and from the the party going into the fall elections, these Republicans are not going to break from them.
25:51
[SPEAKER_02]: It's very unlikely that they're going to put distance between themselves and Trump.
25:56
[SPEAKER_02]: devastating because at this point when you've got that generic ballot, we just talked about they need to be doing a lot of work to kind of build their appeal outward instead they're being drawn inward.
26:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So I do think it is very beneficial for the Democrats that Republicans are being given no space in which to moderate their positions.
26:19
[SPEAKER_02]: And in fact, one of the subtleties
26:25
[SPEAKER_02]: as a political player that I would suggest to you that there are Republicans even in safe districts who have won their primaries right and don't face a challenge from Trump this year who might still be thinking well you know in 2028 he might go against me in a primary then and for those who want to
26:47
[SPEAKER_02]: hang on to their their seats right you know in the primary at least I think the breaks from Trump will be very rare what that spells out to is a message from the Republican party that just is very much base-oriented at a time when their base is much smaller than it was.
27:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's one more incumbent Republican senator who Trump isn't supporting
27:11
[SPEAKER_00]: John Cornean of Texas.
27:13
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the big news of the weekend.
27:15
[SPEAKER_00]: This is in there's in Texas.
27:17
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a Republican primary coming up this week.
27:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump finally made his pick and he endorsed not the incumbent John Cornean.
27:27
[SPEAKER_00]: He endorsed the challenger.
27:28
[SPEAKER_00]: The state attorney general Ken Paxton.
27:31
[SPEAKER_00]: What did John Cornean do to lose Trump's support?
27:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Did he vote for it to impeach the president?
27:37
[SPEAKER_02]: No, Chad Cornin did very, very, very, very little to offend the president, but John Cornin is a very traditional career politician, a very traditional senior Republican senator.
27:53
[SPEAKER_02]: He's part of a leadership there, and frankly Trump doesn't like the Republican leadership in the Senate.
27:58
[SPEAKER_02]: They give him almost everything he wants, his his nominees and all sorts of other things, but they resisted things like getting rid of the filibuster, at least in some circumstances.
28:09
[SPEAKER_02]: They have shown a little bit of caution on even a couple of judicial nominees and things like that, and so the end result is that Trump just doesn't like him.
28:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, this is one of those places though where the analysis of how Trump does politics becomes fascinating, because he, in this case, isn't merely opposing court and, because court and has crossed him.
28:35
[SPEAKER_02]: He is opposing court and because there's quite a bit of evidence
28:39
[SPEAKER_02]: that Paxton, who is just a wild-eyed populist, you know, right wing extreme populist, but also an incredibly scandal-plagged, incredibly controversial figure that Paxton is doing well in that Republican primary.
28:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And so there is a decent amount of evidence that Trump got in not to shift the result of the primary, but to get ahead of the curve, right?
29:03
[SPEAKER_02]: To be there with the guy who might well upend a Republican,
29:07
[SPEAKER_02]: incumbent.
29:09
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a lot of kind of complex, internal thinking, you know, really spending almost all of your life thinking about what's going on with in the Republican Party of Texas at a time when a lot of people would suggest Trump should be thinking outward, right, about, you know, how do you get beyond the base to appeal to more people?
29:30
[SPEAKER_02]: And there's one final thing
29:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Kornin has had some ability to attract at least a small portion of suburban kind of what might somehow be called moderate, although they're really very conservative Republicans.
29:44
[SPEAKER_02]: There is a analysis in Texas, and I think a reasonable one that suggests that there are just enough of those kind of suburban Republicans who will either stay home or might
30:04
[SPEAKER_02]: has the potential to make the Texas seat more winnable for the Democrats, which is really an incredible thing.
30:13
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I want to ask, I wanted to ask, but since Talariko has actually been a little bit ahead in the polls for the last couple of weeks, it's pretty clear he isn't going to be running against Pakistan, the most extreme and kind of crazy Republican.
30:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Dare we hope that the Democrats could elect a senator in Texas for the first time in what 40 years?
30:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, it's a very, very long time.
30:36
[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, it's got to go back to the 90s to when the Democrats won any statewide races and Senator even a more complex and more challenging circumstance.
30:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Look, I think yes, you dare.
30:49
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'll say why you dare.
30:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Please.
30:54
[SPEAKER_02]: equivalent election of Trump's first term, which was 2018, the mid-term that year.
31:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Baito O'Rourke went out with a very determined message in a very determined campaign.
31:08
[SPEAKER_02]: He didn't cut corners.
31:09
[SPEAKER_02]: He actually ran as a relatively progressive challenger to Ted Cruz.
31:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, O'Rourke got, you know, in the 48% range, he actually did very, very well, and he clearly cut into that, you know, swing vote, a little bit more effectively than any of his predecessors had.
31:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Texas has changed some.
31:31
[SPEAKER_02]: over the years.
31:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Population keeps shifting.
31:34
[SPEAKER_02]: There's also its dynamics.
31:35
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a lot of evidence that the Latinx vote is actually more enthusiastic now toward the Democrats than they were a few years ago.
31:44
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that has shifted back and forth, but there seems to be some real shifting toward the Democrats this year.
31:49
[SPEAKER_02]: So, Talereco, who is a unique candidate with a unique message, but one that is sort of tailored to Texas, has the potential.
31:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
31:58
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, and boy, when you put Texas on the list, what this means is that both parties are going to have to pour immense energy into Texas a state with dozens of media markets.
32:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it is a very expensive place to run.
32:11
[SPEAKER_02]: That's kind of the last thing the Republicans needed at this point.
32:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's hard for the Democrats, too.
32:18
[SPEAKER_02]: But for the Republicans to have to be battling to keep Texas at a point when you've got all these other problems.
32:25
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a mess.
32:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I also want to ask you about this so-called settlement of Trump's lawsuit against the IRS.
32:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump announced he was dropping his lawsuit against the IRS, suing the IRS in exchange for that, the attorney general of the United States.
32:48
[SPEAKER_00]: agreed to create a fund to pay $1.8 billion he's calling at the anti weaponization fund and it's going to be paid not to trump but to who exactly and how is this going to work?
33:06
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, the trumpet is allies and friends and political, anybody who might have faced a legal investigation, legal challenge along the way.
33:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, where this becomes problematic is, first and foremost, don't assume that Trump doesn't get a piece of this action at some point down the line.
33:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Or his family, or people associated with him.
33:36
[SPEAKER_02]: It creates a, what I think can fairly be referred to as a slush fund in the, in the Department of Justice, which, by the way, is, you know, pretty chaotic position anyway, because we had the resignation of an attorney general, we've got, you know, we still have a process by which you got to sort of shape things up there as regards leadership, but here's the interesting element of it.
34:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I think voters will understand that as just taking money and putting it into a slush fund.
34:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And for the base of the Republican Party, for the Trump folks, who do think that the Department of Justice and other agencies were weaponized against them, they'll like that.
34:20
[SPEAKER_02]: But that's not a broadly held universal view.
34:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And so I do think that in this bidterm election year, you end up in a situation where I could see a Democrat running against a Republican incumbent saying,
34:35
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, give me this seat.
34:36
[SPEAKER_02]: I'll vote to defund the slush fund, right?
34:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Or I will, we will do oversight on the Department of Justice and make sure that's not abused.
34:44
[SPEAKER_02]: And it feeds into a much broader narrative.
34:48
[SPEAKER_02]: The fact of the matter is this particular fund isn't going to be central.
34:52
[SPEAKER_02]: to debate.
34:53
[SPEAKER_02]: But the notion that there is a great deal of corruption, the notion that the federal government has become a vehicle by which not just Donald Trump and his family, but there are associates.
35:04
[SPEAKER_02]: And we're a military industrial complex and so many other corporate energies seem to be massively enriching themselves because of policies and because of lack of oversight.
35:21
[SPEAKER_02]: in 2026.
35:23
[SPEAKER_02]: And boy, when you add that to all the other factors, this is a part of that.
35:28
[SPEAKER_00]: One last thing, there's still almost six months to go before the midterms.
35:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And lots of things can happen in six months in American politics.
35:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Trump could bring peace to the Middle East.
35:40
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll get a lower gas prices at the pump.
35:42
[SPEAKER_00]: We could have an end of the inflation of food costs.
35:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Then people might change their minds and decide, ah, he hasn't been so bad.
35:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you think Trump will change between now and the midterms?
35:55
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, it is always within the role of possibility, but you know, I've heard talk that there in some cases where when you get to be around 80, you don't change as much as maybe when you're 20, 20, 26 is shaping up as a strikingly good year for the Democrats.
36:14
[SPEAKER_02]: However, I've covered the Democrats for long enough to say, let's wait till November before we make any final judgments.
36:22
[SPEAKER_00]: John Nichols, we met in nation.com.
36:25
[SPEAKER_00]: John, thanks for talking with us today.
36:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Thank you so much.
36:28
[SPEAKER_02]: It's always good to be with you, John.
36:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Start making sense.
36:39
[SPEAKER_00]: A podcast from the Nation Magazine is recorded at our upstairs studio in Los Angeles.
36:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Renee Reynolds is our associate producer, Alan Minsky is our producer.
36:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Richie the Ambrose is executive producer, Boskarsun Kara is president of the nation, Katrina Van Nouvelle is editor and publisher of the nation.
37:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Our theme music is Barcelona Afrobeat, License by Creative Commons.
37:05
[SPEAKER_00]: You can find out more about start making sense at thenation.com and subscribe to start making sense on ample podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
37:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm John Weiner, thanks for listening.