Latest / Pod Save America / Gaetz Goes Down
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Thank you.
- 0:20Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- 0:21Speaker 3: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
- 0:22Speaker 2: On today's show, House Republicans spend a few days obsessing
- 0:25Speaker 2: over who gets to use which bathrooms on Capitol Hill.
- 0:28Speaker 2: New election data gives us a clearer picture of what
- 0:31Speaker 2: really happened in the presidential race. And later, they've got MTG,
- 0:35Speaker 2: we've got MGP. Congresswoman Marie.
- 0:40Speaker 2: You know?
- 0:41Speaker 3: I appreciate it.
- 0:42Speaker 2: Credit to read for that one. Congresswoman Marie Glussenkamp-Perez chats
- 0:46Speaker 2: with me about how she pulled off another win in
- 0:49Speaker 2: a pretty Trumpy district in rural Washington state. But first,
- 0:54Speaker 2: I don't know what this country's coming to, Dan, but
- 0:56Speaker 2: apparently the woke mob has decided that you can't run
- 1:00Speaker 2: the Justice Department if that department has investigated you for
- 1:03Speaker 2: participating in multiple drug-fueled orgies where you paid for sex
- 1:07Speaker 2: with multiple women, at least one of whom was 17.
- 1:12Speaker 2: Are we America?
- 1:13Speaker 3: This is why Trump won, right here. This sort of censorship.
- 1:18Speaker 2: That's right, Matt. Matt Gaetz announced in a tweet that
- 1:21Speaker 2: he has withdrawn from consideration to be the next attorney general,
- 1:25Speaker 2: saying that he didn't want his sexual misconduct to be
- 1:27Speaker 2: a distraction for Donald Trump, who knows a thing or
- 1:30Speaker 2: two about sexual misconduct. The New York Times' Jonathan Swan
- 1:33Speaker 2: reports that Gaetz told people that there were at least
- 1:35Speaker 2: four Republican senators he believed would never vote for him
- 1:39Speaker 2: after conversations with their staffs, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell,
- 1:45Speaker 2: welcome to the resistance, And John Curtis of Utah. Who's
- 1:49Speaker 2: John Curtis of Utah, you might ask?
- 1:50Speaker 3: Someone who I Googled when I saw that tweet.
- 1:53Speaker 2: He's going to be taking Mitt Romney's seat now that
- 1:57Speaker 2: Mitt Romney is retiring. What do you think, Dan? Anything
- 2:00Speaker 2: to glean from this episode about how Republicans in Congress
- 2:04Speaker 2: might handle Trump for the next four years? Or is
- 2:06Speaker 2: this mostly about who Matt Gaetz is and what he's
- 2:09Speaker 2: done and is alleged to have done?
- 2:12Speaker 3: Matt Gaetz has an amazing and possibly historic combination of
- 2:16Speaker 3: several qualities. One, Massively unqualified for the job. His legal
- 2:20Speaker 3: experience basically is a couple of years in a corporate
- 2:23Speaker 3: law firm. He is deeply unpopular with all the colleagues
- 2:26Speaker 3: who would vote for him. Members of the House and
- 2:28Speaker 3: Senate seem to hate him more than almost any other Republican.
- 2:31Speaker 3: And as you pointed out, he is someone who would
- 2:33Speaker 3: be the first person in history, I assume, to go
- 2:35Speaker 3: from being the target of a Department of Justice investigation
- 2:39Speaker 3: to becoming the head of the Department of Justice. And
- 2:41Speaker 3: that was probably a bridge too far for at least
- 2:44Speaker 3: four brave Republicans to one of whom we learned about
- 2:47Speaker 3: 35 seconds ago. I think what is more telling is
- 2:51Speaker 3: not that Matt Gaetz went down. It's that it appears
- 2:53Speaker 3: that about 90% of sitting Republican senators were prepared to
- 2:57Speaker 3: vote for him despite the fact that we have known
- 3:00Speaker 3: about these very credible allegations about Gaetz paying a minor
- 3:04Speaker 3: for sex for months now. That's the thing. They were
- 3:07Speaker 3: all going to vote for him. The fact that he
- 3:09Speaker 3: was going to get most votes is wild if you
- 3:11Speaker 3: step back. If you can detach your brain from our
- 3:14Speaker 3: Trump mentality era, like that's insane. That is a completely
- 3:18Speaker 3: insane thing.
- 3:20Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, we don't know how many votes he
- 3:22Speaker 2: would have gotten. Like we know that those four at
- 3:24Speaker 2: least felt, or at least their staffs felt comfortable enough
- 3:27Speaker 2: talking to Gates and JD Vance, who was walking him
- 3:29Speaker 2: around the Hill over the last couple of days. I
- 3:32Speaker 2: think this is where, you know, he started realizing that
- 3:35Speaker 2: maybe he wasn't going to get confirmed. There could have
- 3:37Speaker 2: been a few more as well. Apparently it was Donald
- 3:40Speaker 2: Trump who told Gates in a phone call, I don't
- 3:44Speaker 2: think the votes are there for you. And I don't
- 3:46Speaker 2: think they're going to be there for you. So that
- 3:48Speaker 2: was that. Gates wanted to keep fighting. But it said
- 3:52Speaker 2: something to me that Trump didn't want to keep fighting
- 3:56Speaker 2: for the votes or didn't want to bully those senators
- 3:59Speaker 2: or didn't want to try the recess appointment thing. I
- 4:03Speaker 2: don't think that says something good about Trump. I'm just
- 4:05Speaker 2: kind of interested in why he came to that conclusion.
- 4:09Speaker 3: He doesn't like to lose fights. So he often quits
- 4:11Speaker 3: before it gets to that point.
- 4:14Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah.
- 4:15Speaker 2: Do you think that other nominees can go down here?
- 4:18Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Gates dropping out is bad news for
- 4:21Speaker 3: Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. Because there's obviously
- 4:27Speaker 3: this group of four people who voted against or were
- 4:30Speaker 3: possibly going to vote against Gates. You have some combination
- 4:34Speaker 3: of people like Mitch McConnell who are in the YOLO
- 4:37Speaker 3: phase of their careers, who Trump can't really do anything
- 4:40Speaker 3: to them per se. You have folks like Tom Tillis
- 4:43Speaker 3: who are up next time, who are thinking about, who
- 4:46Speaker 3: have to try to find this balance between, you don't
- 4:49Speaker 3: want to be a Trump toady, but you also don't
- 4:50Speaker 3: want to piss Trump off so much that you get
- 4:52Speaker 3: a primary challenge. And these folks can maybe vote against
- 4:56Speaker 3: one of Trump's nominees, but they can't vote against all
- 4:59Speaker 3: of them. So the fact that Gates went down without
- 5:01Speaker 3: a vote means that a bunch of folks have a
- 5:03Speaker 3: free vote if they choose to use it against one
- 5:06Speaker 3: of these people they find unqualified. And the person who
- 5:08Speaker 3: probably is now at most risk is Pete Hegseth. He is,
- 5:12Speaker 3: by traditional definitions at least, phenomenally unqualified to manage the Pentagon.
- 5:17Speaker 3: But his, the horrific accounts of the sexual assault allegation
- 5:23Speaker 3: against him were not getting as much attention because of
- 5:26Speaker 3: the goat rodeo that was the Gates nomination. And that's
- 5:29Speaker 3: going to change now. And so he's going to get
- 5:31Speaker 3: a ton of scrutiny. He's going to have to start
- 5:32Speaker 3: having to answer some real questions about what happened with
- 5:35Speaker 3: that allegation, but also how he would run a Pentagon
- 5:38Speaker 3: when he thinks that women shouldn't serve in combat and
- 5:42Speaker 3: how he would manage millions of employees. And so I
- 5:45Speaker 3: think the spotlight goes to him and the spotlight's not
- 5:48Speaker 3: really where you want to be in this process. You
- 5:49Speaker 3: kind of want to draft behind someone else.
- 5:51Speaker 2: Jonathan Chait, who's now at the Atlantic, his piece there
- 5:55Speaker 2: is about Hegseth and he read all of his books.
- 5:58Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth apparently has three or four books that he's written.
- 6:01Speaker 2: I'll just read from the piece. The clearest through line
- 6:04Speaker 2: of all three books is the cross application of Hegseth's
- 6:06Speaker 2: wartime mentality to his struggle against domestic opponents. American Crusade,
- 6:11Speaker 2: that's one of his books, calls for the categorical defeat
- 6:14Speaker 2: of the left with the goal of utter annihilation without
- 6:18Speaker 2: which America cannot and will not survive. And then here's
- 6:22Speaker 2: another quote. Our American Crusade is not about literal swords
- 6:26Speaker 2: and our fight is not with guns yet. Emphasis his.
- 6:30Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 6:32Speaker 2: Like, just I know that the sexual assault allegations are
- 6:37Speaker 2: going to get rightfully a ton of focus. But like
- 6:41Speaker 2: a guy in charge of our military whose loyalty is
- 6:48Speaker 2: only to Donald Trump and who despises Democrats so intensely
- 6:55Speaker 2: with a president who has talked about using the military
- 6:57Speaker 2: against his political opponents. Like, I really hope that's a
- 7:00Speaker 2: big focus of the hearings. Because if anything should cause
- 7:04Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth to go down, it's that the guy running
- 7:07Speaker 2: the military hates half the country and thinks that we're
- 7:10Speaker 2: in a crusade that's not about guns yet.
- 7:15Speaker 3: I think Tommy made this point on the Tuesday pod
- 7:19Speaker 3: that I think for a lot of the public arguing
- 7:22Speaker 3: that someone who served like Pete Hegseth did, who has
- 7:25Speaker 3: the accommodation that Pete Hegseth has, is not qualified to
- 7:28Speaker 3: run a Pentagon is not going to make sense to
- 7:30Speaker 3: a lot of people. Now, if you know a lot
- 7:31Speaker 3: about how the Pentagon runs and the massive management challenge
- 7:33Speaker 3: it is, the weekend anchor at Fox does not seem
- 7:37Speaker 3: like a compelling resume, but for the broader public, it's
- 7:39Speaker 3: not our best argument. But his views, I think, are
- 7:43Speaker 3: very much an important part of this. And you laid
- 7:45Speaker 3: out his sort of his loyalty to Trump, his approach
- 7:48Speaker 3: to anyone he disagrees with, his willingness to apparently use
- 7:52Speaker 3: the military, potentially weaponry, to win political disputes. Also, it's
- 7:56Speaker 3: just not for nothing. Someone who doesn't think women should
- 8:00Speaker 3: serve in combat running the Pentagon at a time when
- 8:04Speaker 3: a significant portion of our fighting force are women is
- 8:07Speaker 3: quite problematic and awkward and challenging. And he should be
- 8:11Speaker 3: forced to defend that and explain that point of view
- 8:14Speaker 3: in the hearings that he has if he makes it
- 8:16Speaker 3: that far.
- 8:17Speaker 2: And by the way, not just problematic, also problematic for
- 8:19Speaker 2: our national security. Yeah, that's what I mean. That's what
- 8:22Speaker 2: I mean.
- 8:22Speaker 3: For how you actually run a Pentagon... when you believe
- 8:27Speaker 3: such a thing, right? When so many of the people
- 8:29Speaker 3: who work under your employee are people you don't believe
- 8:31Speaker 3: should even be able to come to work that day.
- 8:33Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 8:34Speaker 2: The military doesn't have too many people signing up right now.
- 8:36Speaker 2: That's not the problem. We have a recruitment challenge in
- 8:39Speaker 2: the U.S. military at a time of danger all around
- 8:41Speaker 2: the world. All right. Breaking news. Trump's got his next
- 8:46Speaker 2: attorney general, or at least what he hopes is the
- 8:48Speaker 2: next attorney general, Pam Bondi, Dan. Remember Pam Bondi?
- 8:52Speaker 3: Barely. I just had to check. She'd be too. Pat Bondi.
- 8:54Speaker 3: What did Pat Bondi do in the first Trump term?
- 8:57Speaker 2: Pam. Pam. Pam.
- 8:58Speaker 5: Pam.
- 8:58Speaker 3: Pam Bondi.
- 8:59Speaker 2: Yeah, she's like from the first season of Donald Trump.
- 9:03Speaker 3: Yes.
- 9:04Speaker 2: She was Attorney General of Florida. She has been a
- 9:08Speaker 2: long time. She's been close with Trump forever. I think
- 9:12Speaker 2: most recently she led the legal arm of the America
- 9:16Speaker 2: First Policy Institute, which is just a Trump nonprofit. And yeah.
- 9:23Speaker 2: There was a controversy over the fact that she was
- 9:26Speaker 2: supposed to investigate or she was charged with investigating Trump University,
- 9:31Speaker 2: but Trump had given her a donation to her campaign
- 9:34Speaker 2: for Attorney General in Florida.
- 9:36Speaker 3: I feel like I should shout out our producer Saul
- 9:37Speaker 3: for pointing that out.
- 9:38Speaker 2: Saul told us that. Saul reminded us of that. It
- 9:41Speaker 2: sounds like such a quaint scandal these days. Yes.
- 9:47Speaker 3: Just garden variety bribery.
- 9:49Speaker 2: Remember when that was a big deal? That was what
- 9:52Speaker 2: she tried to. She led the bunch of other Republican
- 9:56Speaker 2: attorney generals trying to overturn the Affordable Care Act. Didn't quite.
- 10:00Speaker 2: figure that one out. Anyway, that's Pam Bondi. We'll have
- 10:03Speaker 2: more to say about her as the days go on here,
- 10:05Speaker 2: but that's all we got for now. She's currently a
- 10:08Speaker 2: lobbyist for a Trump fundraiser. She lobbied for Amazon and
- 10:12Speaker 2: GM and Uber. So we have another lobbyist along with
- 10:17Speaker 2: Susie Wiles, and that's that.
- 10:20Speaker 3: I'd like to make a process point here, which is
- 10:23Speaker 3: usually the process for picking a cabinet nominee involves weeks
- 10:26Speaker 3: of rigorous vetting of their personal financial statements, public statements,
- 10:30Speaker 3: voting record, an FBI background check. We are recording this
- 10:34Speaker 3: right now at 4 p.m. Pacific. Matt Gaetz dropped out
- 10:37Speaker 3: at 9 a.m. Pacific. So I'm going to just venture
- 10:40Speaker 3: a guess that they did not do thorough vetting on
- 10:44Speaker 3: Pam Bondi, and we're going to learn some new things
- 10:47Speaker 3: as this process goes forward.
- 10:48Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, she wasn't on the shortlist when he
- 10:51Speaker 2: ended up choosing Matt Gaetz. It was just a bunch
- 10:53Speaker 2: of other dudes that he found boring. He called them
- 10:55Speaker 2: stiffs to Elon Musk, apparently. So she definitely just got
- 11:00Speaker 2: to be in the last couple of days. So we'll see.
- 11:03Speaker 2: Good luck, Pam Bondi. What happens to Matt Gaetz now?
- 11:07Speaker 2: Trump says he's excited to see what he does in
- 11:09Speaker 2: the future. There was some speculation that perhaps Ron DeSantis
- 11:13Speaker 2: would appoint him to fill Marco Rubio's Senate seat when Rubio... Rubio,
- 11:17Speaker 2: who looks like he's going to be cruising to confirmation.
- 11:20Speaker 3: Democrats are going to be standing over backwards to vote
- 11:23Speaker 3: for him.
- 11:25Speaker 2: And DeSantis apparently said no. His office said no, he's
- 11:27Speaker 2: not putting Matt Gaetz in that Senate seat.
- 11:30Speaker 3: Because he's reserving it for Laura Trump.
- 11:32Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. Yeah. So there you go. And it
- 11:35Speaker 2: doesn't seem like he's going to go back to Congress either.
- 11:38Speaker 2: He could. I think that's notable. He could, but then
- 11:41Speaker 2: he has to deal with the House Ethics Committee again
- 11:45Speaker 2: if he goes back to Congress.
- 11:47Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 11:48Speaker 3: I mean, I guess he could go back because, just
- 11:51Speaker 3: so people understand, he resigned from this Congress, but he
- 11:54Speaker 3: was elected to the next Congress. He did put in
- 11:56Speaker 3: his letter that he was also not planning to fill
- 11:58Speaker 3: his seat the next Congress, but that's not legally binding,
- 12:01Speaker 3: so he could still do it. And Governor DeSantis has
- 12:03Speaker 3: not yet called the special election for that seat. But
- 12:06Speaker 3: as you point out, he would have to deal with
- 12:08Speaker 3: the ethics report. And theoretically- although I find this hard
- 12:11Speaker 3: to imagine in this Congress, some sort of potential expulsion
- 12:15Speaker 3: resolution over the findings of that ethics report. And since
- 12:19Speaker 3: he dropped out with new allegations coming out, who knows
- 12:22Speaker 3: how bad that report is or what else could become
- 12:24Speaker 3: a part of it before this is over. The other
- 12:27Speaker 3: thing he could do is he could end up somewhere
- 12:29Speaker 3: in the Trump administration in a non-Senate confirmable job. He
- 12:33Speaker 3: could be a senior advisor in the White House. He
- 12:35Speaker 3: could be a senior advisor in some sort of nebulous
- 12:39Speaker 3: role at the Department of Justice. He could still end
- 12:41Speaker 3: up at DOJ doing all the things you just worried about.
- 12:44Speaker 3: Or the last option, I think probably the most likely
- 12:46Speaker 3: is he starts a podcast.
- 12:48Speaker 2: I thought you were going to say runs for governor
- 12:50Speaker 2: of Florida when Santa's is up. I guess why choose?
- 12:54Speaker 3: Why would you do that when you can have some
- 12:56Speaker 3: real power, like a podcast?
- 12:58Speaker 2: You know, there's someone by the name of Gavin Newsom
- 13:00Speaker 2: who has a big job as governor who... who hosts
- 13:03Speaker 2: a pod called Politicking. So, you know, it's happened before.
- 13:08Speaker 2: So in case you were worried that we lost one
- 13:12Speaker 2: person accused of sexual misconduct from Trump's cabinet, he's looking
- 13:15Speaker 2: to fill his cabinet with a couple more. You mentioned
- 13:18Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth. Health and Human Services Secretary nominee RFK Jr.
- 13:22Speaker 2: has been accused of sexual assault by a former babysitter
- 13:24Speaker 2: for his kids. That person was speaking up this week.
- 13:28Speaker 2: Education secretary nominee Linda McMahon was sued for allegedly enabling
- 13:32Speaker 2: sexual abuse of children. He's really going for it, Donald Trump, right?
- 13:37Speaker 2: He's just like, I was found liable for sexual abuse,
- 13:41Speaker 2: and I'm in the White House, so I guess I
- 13:42Speaker 2: can just nominate as many people as I want.
- 13:44Speaker 3: I think he legitimately finds kinship with other people accused
- 13:48Speaker 3: of the same things he was. I mean, the way
- 13:50Speaker 3: he's defended Harvey Weinstein, Roger Ailes, other people accused of
- 13:55Speaker 3: similar things.
- 13:56Speaker 2: Yeah, crosses party lines for him. One reason Republican senators
- 14:01Speaker 2: may not find the courage to oppose other Trump nominees,
- 14:04Speaker 2: threats from the White House. On Wednesday evening, John Carl
- 14:07Speaker 2: at ABC News tweeted out that a Trump advisor told
- 14:09Speaker 2: him on background, quote, there's votes coming. And if you
- 14:12Speaker 2: are on the wrong side of the vote, you're buying
- 14:14Speaker 2: yourself a primary. That is all. And there's a guy
- 14:17Speaker 2: named Elon Musk who's going to finance it. The president
- 14:20Speaker 2: gets to decide his cabinet. No one else. That's just
- 14:22Speaker 2: the way it is. Is this what the people voted for, Dan?
- 14:26Speaker 2: Trump's billionaire co-president funding primary challenges to knock off Republicans
- 14:30Speaker 2: who don't let Trump fill his cabinet with his preferred
- 14:33Speaker 2: collection of kooks and predators?
- 14:35Speaker 3: Not to be that guy, but that's not how it is.
- 14:38Speaker 3: It's very explicitly not how it is that the president
- 14:40Speaker 3: gets to pick and no one else gets to have input.
- 14:42Speaker 3: It is quite the opposite, in fact. But I think
- 14:45Speaker 3: let's just take a beat on the fact that you
- 14:47Speaker 3: have the world's richest man who spent reportedly over $ 100
- 14:51Speaker 3: million to help Donald Trump get elected. Musk has massive
- 14:56Speaker 3: financial interests in various decisions made by the Trump administration
- 14:59Speaker 3: and Congress in terms of tax rates, space policy, defense contracts,
- 15:04Speaker 3: and he is dictating who gets to serve in the government,
- 15:08Speaker 3: what laws get passed by potentially dumping unlimited amounts of
- 15:11Speaker 3: money into primary challenges. This is, to me, it is
- 15:14Speaker 3: just an epic combination of corruption and bribery, extortion, all
- 15:20Speaker 3: in one place. And I do think that this is,
- 15:23Speaker 3: as Democrats sort of think about ways in which we
- 15:25Speaker 3: are going to mount our fight against Trump and the
- 15:29Speaker 3: Republicans in the coming months and years, targeting this sort
- 15:32Speaker 3: of corruption is high on the list, because this is
- 15:35Speaker 3: what everyone hates about politics. It is huge, massive money
- 15:40Speaker 3: dictating what is in the interest of the rich and
- 15:42Speaker 3: the powerful. And if we can make that case and
- 15:44Speaker 3: make it credibly, I think we have a very good
- 15:47Speaker 3: shot to win back a lot of the voters that
- 15:48Speaker 3: we lost in 2024. Yeah.
- 15:51Speaker 2: I mean, Elon Musk is the richest man in the
- 15:52Speaker 2: world and he's used his money now to buy access,
- 15:56Speaker 2: buy power, and also be able to punish people who
- 16:01Speaker 2: don't do what he wants by dumping money into a
- 16:04Speaker 2: primary challenge, even Republicans. I mean, it's absurd. On that
- 16:08Speaker 2: note about democratic strategy, like, There's going to be a
- 16:11Speaker 2: lot of these nominees. It's going to be a bunch
- 16:12Speaker 2: of hearings. It's going to be a lot of noise
- 16:14Speaker 2: around these hearings. If you're, you know, like in Chuck
- 16:18Speaker 2: Schumer's office or Democratic leadership in the Senate, like, what
- 16:21Speaker 2: do you think in terms of a sort of strategy
- 16:25Speaker 2: to figure out the best way to oppose these nominees
- 16:28Speaker 2: or pick which nominees to really have a fight over?
- 16:32Speaker 3: I think it's worth just remembering that no Democratic senator
- 16:37Speaker 3: has an obligation to vote for any of these people.
- 16:39Speaker 1: Right.
- 16:40Speaker 3: You don't have to do it out of comedy or
- 16:44Speaker 3: sticking to norms or bipartisanship. Just because you're like, I'm
- 16:47Speaker 3: going to vote against Gabbard, Hegseth, McMahon, that I therefore
- 16:51Speaker 3: have to vote for Elise Stefanik and Marco Rubio, or
- 16:54Speaker 3: because I run on the treadmill next to Marco Rubio,
- 16:57Speaker 3: I have to vote for him. I don't really care
- 16:58Speaker 3: if they do or they don't, but there is no
- 17:00Speaker 3: reason that you have to do it. It's also worth
- 17:03Speaker 3: remembering that we have pretty limited control over whether the
- 17:08Speaker 3: most egregious Trump nominees pass or not, right? We don't
- 17:11Speaker 3: have the Senate. We can't, we should do our best
- 17:13Speaker 3: job in our hearings to bring out, make the arguments
- 17:15Speaker 3: against them, bring out the information that everyone should have,
- 17:18Speaker 3: but it's going to be come down to four Republican
- 17:21Speaker 3: senators every single time. And I do think that just
- 17:25Speaker 3: like screaming from the rooftops that all of them are
- 17:28Speaker 3: the worst gets lost and will not matter to people.
- 17:30Speaker 3: And I think what really matters is, and I think there,
- 17:33Speaker 3: cause there are sort of two strategies. There's how you
- 17:35Speaker 3: defeat them And then there's how you use them to
- 17:37Speaker 3: make a case to the broader electorate that we need
- 17:39Speaker 3: to change who controls Congress in 2026. And the way
- 17:43Speaker 3: to do that is you have to stitch together a
- 17:45Speaker 3: narrative about who these people are and what it says
- 17:47Speaker 3: about the Republican Party. And it really is, in my mind,
- 17:50Speaker 3: cronyism and corruption. It's a bunch of rich people who
- 17:54Speaker 3: are serving their own interest and serving Donald Trump's interest
- 17:57Speaker 3: at the expense of the American people's interest. And that's
- 17:59Speaker 3: the thread between all of these folks.
- 18:00Speaker 1: I think.
- 18:01Speaker 2: Yeah, I think they are a bunch of sort of extreme...
- 18:05Speaker 2: corrupt cronies and that's not what people i i think
- 18:09Speaker 2: you gotta keep going back to like what people voted
- 18:11Speaker 2: for a government to like help them afford basic necessities
- 18:17Speaker 2: and to improve their lives and they didn't vote for
- 18:20Speaker 2: a bunch of fucking kooks or someone who wants to
- 18:24Speaker 2: like turn the military against american citizens right all right
- 18:28Speaker 2: so that's the senate over in the house They are
- 18:31Speaker 2: focused like a laser on bringing down costs by keeping
- 18:34Speaker 2: a close eye on who's using which bathroom. On Monday,
- 18:37Speaker 2: Congresswoman Nancy Mace introduced a resolution to ban trans women
- 18:40Speaker 2: from using the women's restrooms and locker rooms on the
- 18:43Speaker 2: House side of the U.S. Capitol. A resolution she said
- 18:46Speaker 2: was specifically targeted at incoming Congresswoman Sarah McBride of Delaware. Mace,
- 18:51Speaker 2: who just three years ago said that no one should
- 18:54Speaker 2: be discriminated against and that she supported LGBTQ rights and
- 18:58Speaker 2: equality in part because She's been around friends and family
- 19:01Speaker 2: who are gay, lesbian and transgender. Those exact words were
- 19:05Speaker 2: on her website. Mace has now apparently decided that it's
- 19:08Speaker 2: easier to get media attention and raise money by obsessing
- 19:11Speaker 2: over where everyone pees. She succeeded at getting Speaker Mike
- 19:15Speaker 2: Johnson to put out a statement saying that single sex
- 19:18Speaker 2: facilities on Capitol grounds are, quote, reserved for individuals of
- 19:21Speaker 2: that biological sex, that members have their own private bathrooms
- 19:26Speaker 2: and that there are unisex public bathrooms in the buildings.
- 19:29Speaker 2: The 34-year-old McBride, who never asked to be the center
- 19:32Speaker 2: of a debate over people's rights, put out a statement
- 19:34Speaker 2: that reads in part, quote, She goes on to say
- 19:37Speaker 2: that every and to bring down costs facing families. Like
- 19:43Speaker 2: all members, I will follow the rules as outlined by
- 19:46Speaker 2: Speaker Johnson, even if I disagree with them. She goes
- 19:49Speaker 2: on to say that every member of Congress was elected
- 19:51Speaker 2: because voters see something in them that they value, that
- 19:54Speaker 2: she has loved seeing those qualities in all her future colleagues,
- 19:57Speaker 2: and she hopes they will do the same for her.
- 20:00Speaker 2: Sarah's been on the show before. She'll be on again soon.
- 20:03Speaker 2: We did check in with her on Thursday. She said
- 20:07Speaker 2: she is mostly focused on getting ready for the job,
- 20:10Speaker 2: at-house orientation, she's hiring staff. She also said that obviously
- 20:13Speaker 2: she's human and this would be hard on anyone, but
- 20:16Speaker 2: that she's really heartened by the support she's received from
- 20:20Speaker 2: the Democratic caucus and even in private from some Republican
- 20:23Speaker 2: members and their staff. What did you think of Sarah's
- 20:28Speaker 2: statement and just this whole fucking mess?
- 20:30Speaker 3: The other statement was beautifully written and very powerful. And
- 20:35Speaker 3: I think it's worth just stepping back from the politics-
- 20:39Speaker 3: for a second, just thinking about this on a human level, right?
- 20:42Speaker 3: I know Sarah a little bit. She's from my hometown.
- 20:45Speaker 3: She's an incredibly impressive person, but just imagine she accomplishes
- 20:49Speaker 3: her dream of getting elected to Congress. And she goes
- 20:52Speaker 3: there and on your first day of work, no matter
- 20:55Speaker 3: where it is, right? When you walked into that new office,
- 20:57Speaker 3: it's incredibly nerve wracking. Now imagine that new office is
- 20:59Speaker 3: Congress and imagine that you are the first transgender person
- 21:03Speaker 3: to go there. And the first thing Congress does is
- 21:08Speaker 3: target you personally and just in the cruelest, most pointless way,
- 21:13Speaker 3: just to score political points. And imagine like that, how
- 21:17Speaker 3: that makes you feel as a person and how to
- 21:19Speaker 3: do that. And I think just whatever people think about
- 21:22Speaker 3: her approach and her strategy to this, just, I think
- 21:25Speaker 3: she deserves a lot of grace. She deserves as much
- 21:28Speaker 3: grace as she has given everyone else in that statement
- 21:31Speaker 3: of hers. Just an incredibly, just incredibly brave way to,
- 21:38Speaker 3: to respond to something that's absolutely disgusting.
- 21:41Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it's incredibly difficult to deal
- 21:46Speaker 2: with what she had to deal with on her first
- 21:49Speaker 2: day on the job from her colleagues, from someone like
- 21:52Speaker 2: Nancy Mace, who clearly is not doing it out of
- 21:55Speaker 2: some deep-seated belief that she has, as we can tell,
- 21:59Speaker 2: because she had just the opposite kind of language on
- 22:02Speaker 2: her website a couple years ago, but she's just doing
- 22:04Speaker 2: it to get attention for herself, because that's what Nancy
- 22:05Speaker 2: Mace does. And Dealing with that is hard enough. Like
- 22:09Speaker 2: finding the courage and the discipline and the grace to
- 22:14Speaker 2: respond the way that she did. Like, I don't know
- 22:18Speaker 2: how many people in politics would do that, especially in
- 22:21Speaker 2: today's political environment. And so I was just, you know,
- 22:25Speaker 2: I was blown away by her statement and how she's
- 22:28Speaker 2: handled this. And it's hard to believe that she was
- 22:31Speaker 2: able to do that. It's also, I think, very compelling
- 22:35Speaker 2: and politically compelling. Like, I think her strategy is just
- 22:40Speaker 2: what she really believes, which is and she said this before.
- 22:42Speaker 2: She's like, I'm not here as a spokesperson for an
- 22:46Speaker 2: entire cause. I am here to represent the people of
- 22:49Speaker 2: Delaware and to do work. And I don't think she
- 22:53Speaker 2: wants to be entirely defined by her gender identity. She
- 23:00Speaker 2: just doesn't.
- 23:01Speaker 5: And.
- 23:02Speaker 2: You know, other people may feel differently, but she wants
- 23:05Speaker 2: to go to Congress to do work. I think focusing
- 23:09Speaker 2: on that is going to be difficult when she's targeted
- 23:12Speaker 2: like this. But it's just, you know, thank God we
- 23:16Speaker 2: have people like her who are there and are going
- 23:19Speaker 2: to approach it this way. And I know that after
- 23:22Speaker 2: she did this, there were some trans rights activists who've
- 23:26Speaker 2: been saying that they are disappointed in Sarah McBride for
- 23:29Speaker 2: giving in on the issue. And that's the polite phrasing
- 23:33Speaker 2: instead of fighting it. And I would just say, like,
- 23:36Speaker 2: I get the frustration and everyone is entitled to their
- 23:41Speaker 2: feelings and their beliefs and that are based on their
- 23:45Speaker 2: own experiences and their own life journeys. But if Sarah
- 23:48Speaker 2: McBride decided to respond by what fighting, putting up a
- 23:54Speaker 2: fight on this, like she's not going to change Mike
- 23:56Speaker 2: Johnson's mind. Democrats don't have power in the house. They
- 24:00Speaker 2: don't get to set the rules. And so any fight
- 24:04Speaker 2: that she put up may make activists feel better. Maybe
- 24:09Speaker 2: it even makes her feel better. Maybe it even makes
- 24:10Speaker 2: other Democrats feel better, but it doesn't do anything. It
- 24:13Speaker 2: doesn't advance the cause. And whether you agree with her
- 24:17Speaker 2: strategy or not, it's a strategy that like she deeply
- 24:21Speaker 2: believes in. And I do think she has earned the
- 24:24Speaker 2: right as someone who has won the seat of and
- 24:28Speaker 2: is going to Congress to do this the way that
- 24:31Speaker 2: she wants to do it. And I think that accusations
- 24:34Speaker 2: that she is somehow abandoning trans activists or the community
- 24:39Speaker 2: or whatever else, like if you were in that position,
- 24:41Speaker 2: what would you do knowing that you have limited power,
- 24:45Speaker 2: that you're there to do a job and that you
- 24:49Speaker 2: are trying to build support, not only for transgender Americans,
- 24:53Speaker 2: but for the policies and beliefs and proposals that you
- 24:58Speaker 2: came to Congress to enact so you could help people.
- 25:01Speaker 2: And so I would just ask everyone to please give
- 25:05Speaker 2: her some grace on this issue.
- 25:07Speaker 3: I'm certainly not the right person to say who's right
- 25:11Speaker 3: and who's wrong here to say that the people who
- 25:13Speaker 3: have a different view than her approach are wrong for
- 25:15Speaker 3: feeling that way. Of course not. I think from her perspective, she, one,
- 25:20Speaker 3: understood this was a fight she could not win, just
- 25:23Speaker 3: absolutely none. There's not a single Republican. If there was
- 25:25Speaker 3: ever a vote, there's nothing Republicans would like more than
- 25:27Speaker 3: to have this specific vote. And if you had it,
- 25:29Speaker 3: no Republicans voting with her. And for reasons that are
- 25:31Speaker 3: not particularly admirable, a lot of her Democratic colleagues would
- 25:34Speaker 3: love to vote the other way, or would love to
- 25:35Speaker 3: avoid the vote at all costs. And having that vote
- 25:39Speaker 3: probably sets the cause back in a lot of ways.
- 25:43Speaker 3: And I think she is playing the long game in
- 25:45Speaker 3: two ways. One is she understands that and more Democrats
- 25:49Speaker 3: need to understand this, that outrage is the coin of
- 25:52Speaker 3: the realm in right-wing politics. And what Nancy Mace wants
- 25:55Speaker 3: more than anything else is for her to respond with outrage.
- 25:58Speaker 3: She can then weaponize that outrage on her behalf for
- 26:00Speaker 3: more attention, more money. And she's denying Nancy Mace and
- 26:04Speaker 3: Mike Johnson what they want most. And that's almost always
- 26:06Speaker 3: a good strategy. And then second, for her and the
- 26:11Speaker 3: long-term cause here, her view is to do the best
- 26:14Speaker 3: job she can. And she's going to have the best
- 26:17Speaker 3: chance to do that job By exactly what she said
- 26:21Speaker 3: in her statement, it's by doing the work she was
- 26:22Speaker 3: elected to do, focusing on that, doing a good job,
- 26:25Speaker 3: being a good colleague, building consensus so she can pass
- 26:28Speaker 3: more bills to that and to be there for a
- 26:31Speaker 3: long time and achieve a lot of things because that
- 26:34Speaker 3: will be what is remembered, right? That is how minds
- 26:36Speaker 3: can be changed.
- 26:38Speaker 2: And I think she also recognizes, and it's something that
- 26:44Speaker 2: I think Democrats are trying to recognize right now, the
- 26:47Speaker 2: country is not where we want it to be right
- 26:51Speaker 2: now on accepting transgender Americans and standing up for their
- 26:56Speaker 2: rights and their dignity. And we want to get the
- 27:00Speaker 2: country there, most of the country there. And figuring out
- 27:05Speaker 2: how to do that is very difficult. And I don't
- 27:07Speaker 2: pretend that like anyone has the right answer or the
- 27:09Speaker 2: wrong answer, but she has a theory of how to
- 27:13Speaker 2: get the country there. Right. And I think like, giving
- 27:16Speaker 2: her the chance to play that out, I think she
- 27:20Speaker 2: deserves that chance. I think she deserves that chance. And,
- 27:22Speaker 2: you know, I don't think this means that Democrats can't
- 27:26Speaker 2: pick fights over this. For example, AOC offered a very
- 27:31Speaker 2: different response than Sarah McBride, but one that I also
- 27:34Speaker 2: thought was quite effective. Here's AOC.
- 27:37Speaker 6: What Nancy Mays and what Speaker Johnson are doing are
- 27:40Speaker 6: endangering all women and girls. Because if you ask them,
- 27:45Speaker 6: what is your plan on how to enforce this, they
- 27:48Speaker 6: won't come up with an answer. And what it inevitably
- 27:51Speaker 6: results in are women and girls who are primed for
- 27:55Speaker 6: assault because people are going to want to check their
- 27:58Speaker 6: private parts in suspecting who is trans and who is
- 28:01Speaker 6: cis and who's doing what. People have a right to
- 28:04Speaker 6: express themselves, to dress how they want, and to be
- 28:07Speaker 6: who they are. And if a woman doesn't look woman
- 28:10Speaker 6: enough to a Republican, they want to be able to
- 28:12Speaker 6: inspect her genitals to use a bathroom. It's disgusting. And everybody,
- 28:17Speaker 6: no matter how you feel on this issue, should reject
- 28:19Speaker 6: it completely. What are they doing? They're doing this so
- 28:22Speaker 6: that Nancy Mace can make a buck and send a
- 28:24Speaker 6: text and fundraise off an email.
- 28:27Speaker 2: What'd you think of that?
- 28:28Speaker 3: Love it. Just going on offense in the right way.
- 28:32Speaker 3: And like playing, this is one of the things that
- 28:34Speaker 3: has been effective in some of the other battles against
- 28:37Speaker 3: these really gross bathroom bills in other states and some
- 28:41Speaker 3: of the bans on sports participation is playing out exactly
- 28:45Speaker 3: how it's going to work, right? And laying out in
- 28:48Speaker 3: detail and forcing them to defend what may sound appealing
- 28:51Speaker 3: to some group of people on the surface or sound
- 28:53Speaker 3: common sense on the surface when you get to the
- 28:55Speaker 3: reality of it, it falls apart. And so I fully
- 28:59Speaker 3: applaud what AOC said there.
- 29:01Speaker 2: I also think that she... put that response in a
- 29:05Speaker 2: frame that we have seen work well against these Republican-led
- 29:13Speaker 2: intrusions into people's private lives. And after Dobbs, I think
- 29:18Speaker 2: we saw in even deep red areas of this country
- 29:23Speaker 2: that when you talk about government should not be involved
- 29:26Speaker 2: in people's private lives, you know, that should not come
- 29:30Speaker 2: between someone and their doctor. It should not be in
- 29:33Speaker 2: people's bedrooms and it should not be in people's bathrooms, right?
- 29:38Speaker 2: And what AOC was trying to say there is wherever
- 29:41Speaker 2: you are in this issue, whatever you think about this issue,
- 29:44Speaker 2: like just leave us the fuck alone. Right. And like
- 29:48Speaker 2: the government shouldn't, and members of Congress shouldn't be like
- 29:51Speaker 2: spending their time obsessing over who goes to what bathroom
- 29:54Speaker 2: when we are like, sent to Congress to try to
- 29:58Speaker 2: make people's lives better. How is that making anyone's lives better?
- 30:02Speaker 2: Nancy Mays getting a fundraising email out there and getting
- 30:04Speaker 2: more attention in the Republican caucus so she can get
- 30:06Speaker 2: a few more fucking Fox News hits. Like, that's not
- 30:09Speaker 2: making people's lives better. Like, just leave people alone. Leave
- 30:13Speaker 2: people alone. So I think it was like a really
- 30:14Speaker 2: effective way to frame the issue that reminded me of
- 30:18Speaker 2: how Democrats very successfully framed abortion in the post-Obs era. Well,
- 30:35Speaker 2: all these other fights are going on. We are quietly
- 30:37Speaker 2: getting more data about who voted in the election, in
- 30:40Speaker 2: what numbers, and where. Navigator Research just released a post-election
- 30:44Speaker 2: survey of 5,000 voters and swing voters. We've also got
- 30:48Speaker 2: most of the complete county-by-county results in most states and
- 30:52Speaker 2: most states that are done counting. California, we're still counting here.
- 30:54Speaker 3: Never going to stop.
- 30:56Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 30:56Speaker 2: Never going to stop. And a few of the other
- 30:59Speaker 2: states have not just finished all the tabulating. But anyway,
- 31:02Speaker 2: the county by county results can help us make an
- 31:05Speaker 2: educated guess about how changes in turnout affected the race.
- 31:10Speaker 2: Let's start with the navigator research. Anything jump out at
- 31:13Speaker 2: you from that? Sure.
- 31:15Speaker 3: What was interesting about the navigator poll is that they
- 31:19Speaker 3: identified a group of quote unquote swing voters. These are
- 31:21Speaker 3: people who considered both candidates over a fairly recent period.
- 31:25Speaker 3: And Trump won those voters by eight points. Now, winning
- 31:28Speaker 3: candidate wins swing voters is not a particularly groundbreaking insight.
- 31:32Speaker 3: But what is interesting in it is who those swing
- 31:35Speaker 3: voters were. And it does confirm some of what we
- 31:37Speaker 3: believed from the pre-election polling and then from the exit polls.
- 31:41Speaker 3: These voters were more likely to be young, more likely
- 31:44Speaker 3: to be male, and more likely to be diverse than
- 31:45Speaker 3: the overall electorate.
- 31:47Speaker 2: And less college educated.
- 31:48Speaker 3: And less college educated.
- 31:48Speaker 2: They're more likely to not have a college degree. So
- 31:51Speaker 2: people think of young people as college students. But it's
- 31:54Speaker 2: important to think that there's a lot of young people
- 31:56Speaker 2: who didn't go to college and this is a big
- 32:00Speaker 2: cohort that Donald Trump made inroads with.
- 32:02Speaker 3: And that is a scary prospect for Democrats because this
- 32:05Speaker 3: used to be our base, right? And Donald Trump has
- 32:07Speaker 3: made very real gains with them. There was a ton
- 32:09Speaker 3: of debate about the polling and the unskewing of the
- 32:12Speaker 3: crosstabs and all of that about what gains Donald Trump
- 32:15Speaker 3: was making. But he made those gains and they were
- 32:17Speaker 3: real and they are why he won the election. The
- 32:19Speaker 3: second piece I think is interesting is And just puts
- 32:22Speaker 3: into perspective just how big the challenge was for Kamala
- 32:25Speaker 3: Harris and the Democrats in this election is that Harris
- 32:28Speaker 3: and Trump had similar personal favorability ratings, but a majority
- 32:33Speaker 3: of 2024 voters had a positive approval of Donald Trump's
- 32:38Speaker 3: first term in office. And among swing voters, it was 59-37.
- 32:45Speaker 3: And so that is also, once again, alarming because it
- 32:47Speaker 3: means that we lost a messaging war over the course
- 32:49Speaker 3: of time, that we allowed Donald Trump's presidency to become
- 32:52Speaker 3: more popular over the course of the four years. That's
- 32:54Speaker 3: not all a messaging failure on the Democrats' part. A
- 32:56Speaker 3: lot of that is inflation and nostalgia for lower prices,
- 33:00Speaker 3: for sure. But I also think that in some ways
- 33:03Speaker 3: you can look at that and find some glimmers of
- 33:06Speaker 3: both those pieces of data and find some glimmers of hope.
- 33:08Speaker 3: What it tells me is that Donald Trump's winning coalition
- 33:10Speaker 3: is much more fragile than people assume. These are voters
- 33:14Speaker 3: who don't have a history of voting for candidates like him,
- 33:16Speaker 3: who disagree with him on a lot of issues, and
- 33:19Speaker 3: have pretty high expectations for what he's going to deliver.
- 33:21Speaker 3: Because what that tells me, if you don't really like
- 33:23Speaker 3: Donald Trump that much, you don't really agree with him
- 33:25Speaker 3: that much, but you voted for him because you thought
- 33:27Speaker 3: his last presidency was good, means you expect lower prices,
- 33:31Speaker 3: less chaos, more stability this time around. If he doesn't
- 33:34Speaker 3: deliver that, we have a very good shot at winning
- 33:35Speaker 3: those voters back.
- 33:37Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought there's a few other really interesting pieces
- 33:42Speaker 2: of data here. I mean, to your point, retroactive approval
- 33:46Speaker 2: of Trump's presidency is very interesting to me because there's
- 33:50Speaker 2: this debate like, were we too focused on Donald Trump?
- 33:54Speaker 2: Were we not focused enough on Donald Trump? Did we
- 33:57Speaker 2: attack him too much? Did we not attack him too much?
- 33:59Speaker 2: This suggests that it really wasn't about attack. It wasn't
- 34:03Speaker 2: as simple as attacking him or not. It was like
- 34:06Speaker 2: how to attack Donald Trump. And I don't think this
- 34:09Speaker 2: is necessarily just like the Kamala Harris campaign's fault, but
- 34:12Speaker 2: Donald Trump gives you, we've said this a million times,
- 34:14Speaker 2: he gives you so many targets. And I think like,
- 34:19Speaker 2: it's just hard to go after his character or go
- 34:23Speaker 2: after things about Donald Trump that people already know about him.
- 34:27Speaker 2: And it was much more difficult also to go after
- 34:31Speaker 2: new information about Donald Trump, which is what he proposed
- 34:34Speaker 2: to do in the future. But it was like, it
- 34:37Speaker 2: was harder in the end to get people to believe
- 34:39Speaker 2: that the Donald Trump they had already seen through four
- 34:43Speaker 2: years in office would carry out all these extreme 25
- 34:48Speaker 2: agenda things. I don't know how you would have fixed that.
- 34:51Speaker 2: And maybe that's just a problem that's unique to Donald
- 34:54Speaker 2: Trump because he's a candidate who ran, who had been
- 34:56Speaker 2: president before, which is very unusual. But I thought that
- 35:00Speaker 2: was notable. If you look at the top reasons to
- 35:02Speaker 2: support Trump from new Trump voters, so these were people
- 35:07Speaker 2: who voted for Trump this time who either didn't vote
- 35:09Speaker 2: before or voted for Biden before. Number one, we'll secure
- 35:13Speaker 2: border and fight illegal immigration, 48%. Number two, fix our
- 35:19Speaker 2: economy and get things back to the way they were
- 35:21Speaker 2: when he was president, 44%. Those are the two top reasons.
- 35:25Speaker 2: The other reasons are all in the, the other three
- 35:28Speaker 2: of the top five are in the 20s, low 20s,
- 35:31Speaker 2: strong leader, cut taxes, including tips, social security and overtime pay,
- 35:36Speaker 2: and then won't let our children be endangered or confused
- 35:39Speaker 2: by transgender ideology. It was 22%, right? But so the big,
- 35:43Speaker 2: big ones, like double the support for those bottom three,
- 35:47Speaker 2: immigration and fixing the economy back to where it was
- 35:51Speaker 2: when he was president. And on that economic point, they
- 35:54Speaker 2: had a bunch of reasons listed and they said, is
- 35:56Speaker 2: this more of a reason to support Kamala Harris or
- 35:58Speaker 2: more a reason to support Donald Trump? On the economy,
- 36:03Speaker 2: she won on fighting for the middle class, taxing the rich,
- 36:07Speaker 2: access to affordable healthcare. Those were all given as like
- 36:10Speaker 2: top reasons to vote for her over Donald Trump. But
- 36:13Speaker 2: Trump won on state of the economy and level of inflation,
- 36:17Speaker 2: which also goes to show the challenge because her ads,
- 36:21Speaker 2: her message about what she was going to do in
- 36:23Speaker 2: the economy, like it broke through to people, but it
- 36:26Speaker 2: just wasn't enough to overcome people's nostalgia about Trump's management
- 36:31Speaker 2: of the economy when he was president and and their
- 36:35Speaker 2: frustration over inflation when Biden and Harris were in office,
- 36:39Speaker 2: which just like, I don't know what you do about that.
- 36:41Speaker 2: I mean, like that, that seems to me like there's
- 36:43Speaker 2: plenty of things for the democratic party to do and
- 36:45Speaker 2: improve as we go forward. I think that, you know,
- 36:48Speaker 2: part of this is not just figuring out how to
- 36:52Speaker 2: win an election. That's a coin toss against a, an,
- 36:55Speaker 2: authoritarian like Donald Trump, but to actually build a majority,
- 36:58Speaker 2: which means not just winning the presidency, but winning the
- 37:01Speaker 2: Senate too. So I think there's a whole bunch of
- 37:02Speaker 2: other things that Democrats need to do to compete better.
- 37:05Speaker 2: But some of what was specific to this election is like,
- 37:09Speaker 2: I don't know what she could have done. And I
- 37:10Speaker 2: don't know what Biden could have done if he had
- 37:12Speaker 2: been able to run a race like he did in 2020.
- 37:16Speaker 3: There was significant dissatisfaction with the status quo. and Donald
- 37:20Speaker 3: Trump was able to be the change candidate, right? And
- 37:23Speaker 3: we can have 75 different podcasts talking about what it
- 37:26Speaker 3: could have, should have, to change that. Most of those
- 37:29Speaker 3: decisions would probably would have had to been made prior
- 37:31Speaker 3: to the 109 days that Kamala Harris was the nominee.
- 37:35Speaker 3: But yeah, it was a brutal political environment for Democrats.
- 37:40Speaker 3: And even then, it ended up being quite close.
- 37:43Speaker 2: They also asked a question that was, are you more
- 37:45Speaker 2: concerned that Kamala Harris would be a continuation of failed
- 37:48Speaker 2: economic policies from Biden or more concerned that she'll be
- 37:50Speaker 2: too liberal as president. And among swing voters, continuation of
- 37:55Speaker 2: the failed economic policy, like one by 10 points. So
- 37:58Speaker 2: they were much more concerned that she'd be a continuation
- 38:00Speaker 2: of Biden than she was too liberal. And then they
- 38:02Speaker 2: asked a similar set of two questions about Trump. Are
- 38:05Speaker 2: you more concerned that he has an extreme agenda like
- 38:07Speaker 2: Project 2025 and banning abortion? Or are you more concerned
- 38:12Speaker 2: that he would past economic policies that favor the rich.
- 38:16Speaker 2: And the extreme agenda won on that one among swing
- 38:18Speaker 2: voters by four points. So it was much closer than
- 38:21Speaker 2: the common one, but it does tell me that as
- 38:24Speaker 2: we look forward in the next four years, the potential
- 38:27Speaker 2: extremism of the Republican agenda definitely does turn people off.
- 38:32Speaker 2: And it's not just that they're going to help rich
- 38:34Speaker 2: people at the expense of everyone else. So it is like,
- 38:37Speaker 2: I never want to lose completely the Some of their
- 38:40Speaker 2: stuff is just really extreme part of it because it
- 38:43Speaker 2: does worry swing voters as much, if not more, as
- 38:46Speaker 2: his policies to help rich people.
- 38:48Speaker 3: I mean, that was the strategy that won. For all
- 38:50Speaker 3: the talk about Dobbs and democracy and all that, what
- 38:53Speaker 3: the actual winning strategy in 2022 is to paint these
- 38:56Speaker 3: Republicans as extremes. Abortion was the main reason they were
- 39:01Speaker 3: seen as extreme. It opened the door to a lot
- 39:03Speaker 3: of other arguments about their extreme views, but that was it.
- 39:06Speaker 3: And I just– one other thing that I just have
- 39:08Speaker 3: to remind myself all the time when I'm thinking about
- 39:10Speaker 3: this is we're never running against Donald Trump again.
- 39:12Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 39:13Speaker 3: And so like a lot of the energy we are
- 39:16Speaker 3: using to talk about Donald Trump right now, we actually
- 39:18Speaker 3: have to resist and it has to be about the
- 39:21Speaker 3: Republican Party. We have to brand the Republican Party in
- 39:24Speaker 3: a way that the Republican Party has branded Democrats in
- 39:27Speaker 3: the nine years that Trump's been on the stage.
- 39:30Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 39:31Speaker 4: Agreed.
- 39:31Speaker 2: What about the county by county turnout numbers? And anything
- 39:35Speaker 2: there interesting to you? And can you remind people why
- 39:37Speaker 2: figuring out turnout effects on the outcome of the election
- 39:41Speaker 2: is trickier than it might seem?
- 39:43Speaker 3: I'll try to explain this in the shortest way possible.
- 39:48Speaker 3: because this is a debate. I mean, you've basically done
- 39:51Speaker 3: four podcasts, four podcast series about this over the last decade,
- 39:54Speaker 3: about turnout versus persuasion, what's more important, and the answer
- 39:56Speaker 3: is obviously both. But in looking at this data, just
- 39:59Speaker 3: the way, I think maybe the way to try to
- 40:01Speaker 3: understand why this is hard is, in most counties in
- 40:04Speaker 3: this country, Donald Trump got more votes in 2024 than
- 40:07Speaker 3: he got in 2020. And in those same counties, Kamala
- 40:10Speaker 3: Harris got fewer votes than Joe Biden got in 2020.
- 40:13Speaker 3: What we do not know is that in the votes
- 40:16Speaker 3: that Trump gained, did he gain those votes because people
- 40:19Speaker 3: who voted for Biden in 2020 voted for Trump in 2024,
- 40:22Speaker 3: or are they new voters who did not vote before?
- 40:26Speaker 3: And same thing for Kamala Harris. Does she have fewer
- 40:28Speaker 3: voters because some Biden voters voted for Trump or because
- 40:32Speaker 3: a bunch of Biden voters stayed home? You can make
- 40:36Speaker 3: some guesses. The answer is obviously both happened. You can
- 40:41Speaker 3: really see that in some of the counties, particularly the
- 40:43Speaker 3: counties along the Rio Grande and other places that made
- 40:46Speaker 3: massive swings. It's obvious that there's a huge amount of
- 40:50Speaker 3: switching there. That's particularly true in some Latino precincts. But
- 40:55Speaker 3: we'll have a better idea of understanding how much was persuasion,
- 40:59Speaker 3: how much was turnout when we get the catalyst data
- 41:02Speaker 3: in a few months. Just as an example of why
- 41:04Speaker 3: this is so confusing, one of the arguments you're hearing
- 41:06Speaker 3: from people who are on the left who are complaining
- 41:09Speaker 3: that Kamala Harris is had too moderate of a campaign,
- 41:13Speaker 3: she ran as Republican light, she hung out with the Cheneys,
- 41:16Speaker 3: all of that, is they point to places like Milwaukee
- 41:18Speaker 3: and they say, there were fewer votes in the Democratic
- 41:22Speaker 3: stronghold of Milwaukee County in 2024 than 2020, which means
- 41:25Speaker 3: she failed to excite the base. Except when you dig
- 41:28Speaker 3: in there, the population of Milwaukee County has gone down
- 41:33Speaker 3: over the last four years. So turnout was actually up
- 41:36Speaker 3: as a percentage of the overall electorate. There are just
- 41:38Speaker 3: fewer people who live in the county. And so it's
- 41:40Speaker 3: all very confusing. And the people trying to weaponize this
- 41:44Speaker 3: on either side are oversimplifying what is a very dynamic process.
- 41:49Speaker 2: Carlos Odio, who we've all talked to a bunch on here,
- 41:52Speaker 2: he did like an initial analysis of Latino vote based
- 41:55Speaker 2: on county by county results. And, you know, one thing
- 41:58Speaker 2: he mentioned, which is, it does seem obvious now that
- 42:00Speaker 2: I think about it. He's like, if you look at
- 42:02Speaker 2: the votes in a county, he's like, if, If Trump
- 42:04Speaker 2: added the same number or similar number of votes that
- 42:07Speaker 2: Kamala Harris lost in a given county, that suggests that
- 42:12Speaker 2: it was a swing and it was persuasion, right? But
- 42:15Speaker 2: if Trump gained like double the number of votes that
- 42:18Speaker 2: she lost, well, then it seems like he might have
- 42:20Speaker 2: added some new voters. Or if she lost double the
- 42:22Speaker 2: number of votes that he gained, then maybe she lost
- 42:24Speaker 2: a bunch of voters who just stayed home, right? And
- 42:26Speaker 2: you can also start figuring this out based on the
- 42:29Speaker 2: split ticket stuff. So like where some Democratic Senate candidates
- 42:33Speaker 2: ran ahead of Kamala Harris or behind, that means that
- 42:36Speaker 2: some people either, you know, voted for Donald Trump and
- 42:39Speaker 2: Ruben Gallego or voted for Donald Trump and left it
- 42:43Speaker 2: blank or vice versa, voted for Ruben Gallego and left
- 42:46Speaker 2: the top of the ticket blank. Like people do all
- 42:48Speaker 2: kinds of weird things. And you're right. We need to
- 42:50Speaker 2: get like the voter file data. I do think one,
- 42:53Speaker 2: a couple like larger trends that you can spot right
- 42:55Speaker 2: now is in the battleground states, turn out, wasn't really
- 43:00Speaker 2: down that much at all. In some states, like Georgia,
- 43:04Speaker 2: it was higher, right? Like there was more votes. And
- 43:07Speaker 2: so it's hard to imagine it's much of a turnout
- 43:10Speaker 2: issue in those battleground states. There's probably some people who
- 43:12Speaker 2: stay at home. But in the non-battleground states, especially in
- 43:16Speaker 2: like big blue states around cities, turnout fell enough that,
- 43:22Speaker 2: you know, you could see in those states that probably
- 43:24Speaker 2: there was a bit of a turnout challenge. Yeah.
- 43:27Speaker 3: That obviously had some real consequences for the battle to
- 43:30Speaker 3: take the House, but in terms of the presidential, it
- 43:32Speaker 3: doesn't really matter as much. And just looking at, this
- 43:37Speaker 3: is related to the county, coming from the county data,
- 43:41Speaker 3: the folks at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball did a map
- 43:44Speaker 3: of where Senate candidates outperformed Trump and Harris, and the
- 43:48Speaker 3: ways in which Democratic Senate candidates, particularly Ruben Gallego, Bob Casey,
- 43:52Speaker 3: and Tammy Baldwin outperformed Kamala Harris, just basically across almost
- 43:56Speaker 3: in every county in the state. It's just very interesting. Now,
- 43:58Speaker 3: by very small margins, to be clear, like less than
- 44:01Speaker 3: a point, maybe a point in some cases, more than
- 44:04Speaker 3: a point in Geico's case, most likely, but it was notable.
- 44:07Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 44:08Speaker 2: Has anything in the data that you've seen so far
- 44:10Speaker 2: changed your perception of what happened?
- 44:13Speaker 3: Yeah, it does. And I think there are lots of
- 44:16Speaker 3: little specific things, but I think the bigger thing here
- 44:18Speaker 3: is we were so struck by how Trump won, right?
- 44:23Speaker 3: The gains he made, the fact that he was going
- 44:24Speaker 3: to win the popular vote, something that most people did
- 44:26Speaker 3: not think was going to happen, that he won all
- 44:28Speaker 3: seven battleground states, which even though we knew was the
- 44:31Speaker 3: most likely scenario in Nate Silver's model, it still felt
- 44:35Speaker 3: shocking that it happened. We still felt like we'll get
- 44:36Speaker 3: at least one or two of them even in a
- 44:38Speaker 3: lost scenario, right? But when you really dig in, what
- 44:42Speaker 3: it tells me is that Trump's win, when you look
- 44:45Speaker 3: at the county data, the Navigator polling, what Carlos did,
- 44:48Speaker 3: a bunch of other people, What it tells me is
- 44:50Speaker 3: that Trump's win was wider but shallower than it seemed
- 44:57Speaker 3: on election night. He won in more places.
- 44:59Speaker 2: He won.
- 45:00Speaker 3: He made significant gains with people who have not traditionally
- 45:04Speaker 3: been part of the Republican coalition. He made huge gains
- 45:08Speaker 3: in parts of the country like Miami-Dade, Osceola County, Florida,
- 45:11Speaker 3: even making some gains in places that we thought were
- 45:14Speaker 3: going to be growth areas for us. And that's very significant.
- 45:16Speaker 3: And the double-digit gains in places like New York and California. huge.
- 45:21Speaker 3: But man, when you look at those margins in the
- 45:22Speaker 3: battleground states, you look at his popular vote margin, which
- 45:24Speaker 3: is now smaller than Hillary Clinton's margin when she lost
- 45:28Speaker 3: in 2016, the smallest margin in every election since Al
- 45:30Speaker 3: Gore's popular vote win over George W. Bush in 2000.
- 45:34Speaker 3: It's on the razor's edge. And I think to have
- 45:38Speaker 3: that conversation, you have to be able to hold two
- 45:40Speaker 3: things in your mind at one time. Trump did not
- 45:41Speaker 3: win a landslide. He does not have a mandate for
- 45:43Speaker 3: all these fucking lunatics he wants to put in office
- 45:45Speaker 3: or do all these extreme policies. And the country is
- 45:48Speaker 3: going to recognize that and reject them if we can
- 45:50Speaker 3: make the case. But that is not an excuse, as
- 45:53Speaker 3: I've seen some people suggest online, that Democrats don't have
- 45:57Speaker 3: real work to do, that we shouldn't revisit, ask our
- 46:00Speaker 3: really hard questions of ourselves, of our policy agenda, our
- 46:03Speaker 3: communication strategy, how we campaign, how we govern, and really
- 46:06Speaker 3: revisit that. Because if these trends continue, we are fucked.
- 46:11Speaker 3: but we have room right now to bring them back
- 46:15Speaker 3: as we did after Bush won in 04. And so
- 46:18Speaker 3: I think it's fair to say that Trump did not
- 46:20Speaker 3: win as big of a win as he wants you
- 46:21Speaker 3: to believe and the press wants you to believe, but
- 46:23Speaker 3: that we still have to do the work that is
- 46:25Speaker 3: consistent with a really tough loss.
- 46:28Speaker 2: The data points that have not surprised me at all
- 46:31Speaker 2: are the effect of inflation, cost of living, the hangover
- 46:35Speaker 2: from the pandemic in terms of high prices and interest rates.
- 46:39Speaker 2: Our challenge as a party with people who don't have
- 46:42Speaker 2: a college degree going from just white voters to now
- 46:46Speaker 2: Latino voters and some black voters and Asian voters as
- 46:49Speaker 2: well did not surprise me because I've seen that over
- 46:52Speaker 2: the last several years. I've heard it in focus groups myself.
- 46:55Speaker 2: I think what has surprised me is the extent of
- 46:58Speaker 2: the frustration, especially in cities and in blue states over immigration.
- 47:06Speaker 2: It's not just about like what's happening down at the
- 47:10Speaker 2: Mexican border. And it's not just about like, we don't
- 47:13Speaker 2: want immigrants here. It is about like, like, you know,
- 47:17Speaker 2: Greg Abbott starting to, you know, bus migrants to cities
- 47:20Speaker 2: and then other governors doing it. And then migrants just
- 47:23Speaker 2: coming to cities because there were just so many, like,
- 47:26Speaker 2: I think that that led to a level of disorder
- 47:30Speaker 2: in the minds of, again, mostly working class voters, many
- 47:35Speaker 2: of them Latino themselves who, that I think sort of
- 47:39Speaker 2: combines with the economic angst over inflation and just sort
- 47:44Speaker 2: of amplifies it with people. Right. And there is this
- 47:47Speaker 2: like fundamental sense that things aren't fair.
- 47:51Speaker 1: Right.
- 47:51Speaker 2: And and I'm struggling and I'm paying more and I'm
- 47:56Speaker 2: having trouble making ends meet. And then I'm seeing like
- 48:00Speaker 2: I'm going out on the street and I'm in like,
- 48:02Speaker 2: you know, there's there's people who are homeless and then
- 48:05Speaker 2: there's Migrants here. And it's like, I don't figuring out
- 48:09Speaker 2: how to address that and differentiating ourselves from Trump and
- 48:15Speaker 2: Republicans who are like, you know, the J.D. Vance's of
- 48:19Speaker 2: the world who want to attack the migrants in Springfield
- 48:22Speaker 2: who are here legally and trying to work hard and
- 48:24Speaker 2: make a living for themselves and their families, making sure
- 48:27Speaker 2: that we're different from that, but also like addressing and
- 48:30Speaker 2: recognizing that this is a real challenge for people. is
- 48:34Speaker 2: I think a big part of what we need to
- 48:36Speaker 2: do going forward. And even for like all the talk
- 48:39Speaker 2: right now about cultural issues and transgender people playing sports
- 48:44Speaker 2: and all this, like, again, I think that the, the
- 48:47Speaker 2: ad that everyone's talking about, about Kamala Harris was more about,
- 48:51Speaker 2: you know, undocumented immigrants in prison getting benefits.
- 48:55Speaker 3: Tax benefits.
- 48:56Speaker 5: Right.
- 48:57Speaker 2: Then it is about trans people specifically. And I just,
- 49:01Speaker 2: you know, it's, it's a, it's a notion of, People
- 49:04Speaker 2: want opportunity. They also want fairness. And I do think
- 49:08Speaker 2: we have to figure that out and take it head
- 49:10Speaker 2: on and not just dismiss it from people.
- 49:12Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a huge opportunity for us to
- 49:14Speaker 3: fight back here, and it's coming up pretty soon. In
- 49:16Speaker 3: times of high inflation and high unemployment... you see backlash
- 49:21Speaker 3: against the welfare state. And that includes this idea that
- 49:25Speaker 3: undocumented folks are getting benefits when my family is struggling
- 49:30Speaker 3: to buy eggs and milk or whatever else. This is
- 49:34Speaker 3: the exact environment in which Ronald Reagan weaponized welfare queens
- 49:38Speaker 3: in the 80s. And the way– like our opportunity to
- 49:40Speaker 3: push back on that is, one, we should have a
- 49:42Speaker 3: better argument on immigration. We should have a more holistic
- 49:44Speaker 3: argument on immigration. We should go back to the Obama-era
- 49:48Speaker 3: arguments about securing the border but also solving the whole
- 49:52Speaker 3: problem and dealing with people who have been in this
- 49:53Speaker 3: country paying taxes and playing by the rules for a
- 49:55Speaker 3: long time. But also in this exact environment, Donald Trump
- 49:59Speaker 3: and the Republicans are going to get together to try
- 50:01Speaker 3: to give trillions of dollars in tax cuts to corporations
- 50:03Speaker 3: and the wealthy. And people– And.
- 50:06Speaker 2: Then Elon Musk is going to like try to cut
- 50:08Speaker 2: your healthcare.
- 50:09Speaker 3: This was the battle of the, it is who is
- 50:13Speaker 3: getting what I'm not getting, right? Republicans want to make
- 50:16Speaker 3: you think that it is people depend on the welfare
- 50:18Speaker 3: state and immigrants and Democrats are correctly, substantively and morally
- 50:23Speaker 3: are pointing out that the people who are getting over
- 50:26Speaker 3: on you are the rich and the corporations. And now
- 50:28Speaker 3: we have a rich president with a cabinet full of
- 50:32Speaker 3: fucking billionaires and being advised by the world's richest man,
- 50:36Speaker 3: on a plan to cut taxes for themselves and their
- 50:38Speaker 3: fellow corporations. And that is a place where we can
- 50:41Speaker 3: win this argument. So I'm going to be talking about
- 50:44Speaker 3: this nonstop on this podcast for the next year.
- 50:46Speaker 2: Same. Okay, when we come back from the break, we're
- 50:48Speaker 2: going to talk to Congresswoman Glusenkamp-Perez. One quick thing before
- 50:51Speaker 2: we do that. This week on Assembly Required, Stacey breaks
- 50:54Speaker 2: down the potential impact of RFK Jr. as health secretary,
- 50:57Speaker 2: what it would mean for the FDA, the CDC, and
- 50:59Speaker 2: the future of public health in America. Then she sits
- 51:02Speaker 2: down with chef and activist Tom Colicchio. to talk about
- 51:06Speaker 2: why food insecurity remains such a massive issue in the U.S.
- 51:09Speaker 2: and what steps we can take to fix it. Listen
- 51:11Speaker 2: to Assembly Required with Stacey Abrams now wherever you get
- 51:14Speaker 2: your podcasts, including YouTube. When we come back, Marie Glusenkamp-Perez.
- 51:31Speaker 2: Joining us today is one of the few Democrats who
- 51:33Speaker 2: won a tough rematch in a Washington district that Trump
- 51:35Speaker 2: also won. Congresswoman Marie Glusenkamp-Perez is here. Welcome back to
- 51:39Speaker 2: the show.
- 51:40Speaker 5: Hey, John. Thanks for having me.
- 51:42Speaker 2: First off, rough election for Democrats, tense election for the country.
- 51:46Speaker 2: How are you doing?
- 51:48Speaker 1: I mean, I'm so glad to be off of TV
- 51:51Speaker 1: and like commercials.
- 51:52Speaker 5: You have no idea. It's great.
- 51:54Speaker 2: That's good. That's good. From your perspective as a Democratic
- 51:57Speaker 2: member of Congress who represents a Trump district, Do you
- 52:01Speaker 2: think this race was winnable for Kamala Harris?
- 52:05Speaker 1: I mean, clearly they thought it was or they wouldn't,
- 52:07Speaker 1: you know, ran. I am not in those rooms.
- 52:11Speaker 5: Like, I'm not like a pollster.
- 52:14Speaker 2: Was there a moment when you thought like, I'm not
- 52:16Speaker 2: sure this was the right decision or a moment you
- 52:19Speaker 2: were like, I don't know if she's going to be
- 52:21Speaker 2: able to do this or the campaign did something where
- 52:23Speaker 2: you thought it was wrong, anything like that?
- 52:26Speaker 5: Well, I mean, my race was such a dogfight.
- 52:28Speaker 1: Like, I was very focused on this, but there's a
- 52:31Speaker 1: certain point when like you hear so many people confidently
- 52:33Speaker 1: saying like, of course that you want, you know, my
- 52:38Speaker 1: perspective is like very local.
- 52:39Speaker 5: Like that's who I'm listening to, you know?
- 52:41Speaker 1: And, and so I was aware that like, you know,
- 52:44Speaker 1: there's like selection bias in like my community.
- 52:47Speaker 5: Like I, that's just not.
- 52:49Speaker 2: What were people saying about the national race in your community?
- 52:52Speaker 1: You know, that's funny because they weren't like, people weren't
- 52:55Speaker 1: talking about it. Like I was on an RV tour
- 52:58Speaker 1: and nobody asked me, what, you know, about that. Like
- 53:02Speaker 1: we were talking about Spirit Lake. We were talking about
- 53:04Speaker 1: flooding in the Chalice River Valley. A lot about sea lions, wildfire,
- 53:09Speaker 1: talking about Waukiakum County going down to a four-day school
- 53:11Speaker 1: week because of timber revenue shortfalls.
- 53:15Speaker 5: Talking about fentanyl is very horrific deaths. So that's what
- 53:20Speaker 5: people were talking about.
- 53:21Speaker 2: Now that everyone's had a few weeks to process the results,
- 53:25Speaker 2: there has been no shortage of takes, postmortems, How do
- 53:29Speaker 2: you feel so far about the reaction from your fellow
- 53:32Speaker 2: Democratic colleagues about where the party needs to go from here?
- 53:35Speaker 2: Do people seem more willing to listen or rethink their approach?
- 53:40Speaker 5: I think it's difficult.
- 53:44Speaker 1: It's always easier to find accountability somewhere else. It is
- 53:48Speaker 1: hard for anyone to say, have that lens.
- 53:52Speaker 5: But I also think there is work to do. There
- 53:56Speaker 5: are serious problems.
- 53:58Speaker 1: And it's not the time to just be moping around
- 54:03Speaker 1: in a ditch somewhere.
- 54:04Speaker 5: There's real work to do.
- 54:06Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 54:07Speaker 2: What so far has concerned you the most about an
- 54:11Speaker 2: incoming second Trump administration and the nominations he's announced so far?
- 54:16Speaker 1: There are a lot of groups who are like, oh,
- 54:18Speaker 1: they're trying to have contingency plans.
- 54:20Speaker 5: What do you do if X, then Y? And I
- 54:23Speaker 5: think that is.
- 54:27Speaker 5: This is not a predictable administration. We don't know what's
- 54:30Speaker 5: going to happen.
- 54:32Speaker 1: To me, the point is go home and talk to
- 54:35Speaker 1: your folks.
- 54:37Speaker 5: Figure out what they need.
- 54:39Speaker 1: And to the extent, flexing the muscle of what are
- 54:44Speaker 1: the things that we agree on? Where are the constituent
- 54:46Speaker 1: parts we can make progress? And what are the non-political,
- 54:51Speaker 1: non-partisan things that need.
- 54:53Speaker 5: To be done?
- 54:54Speaker 1: You know, there's a really good book, The Art of
- 54:57Speaker 1: Logic in an Illogical World. And she talks about how
- 55:01Speaker 1: you kind of take these big culture war issues and
- 55:04Speaker 1: you break them down into constituent parts. And you say, like,
- 55:06Speaker 1: it's not about the thing. You know, delete the proper nouns. Like,
- 55:10Speaker 1: for instance, like Hunter Biden's laptop. I got a ton
- 55:12Speaker 1: of emails about that and letters. And I think when
- 55:15Speaker 1: you lift the hood up on that and you think
- 55:16Speaker 1: about it, a lot of those people are talking about
- 55:19Speaker 1: their sense that there is a justice system that works
- 55:22Speaker 1: differently if you have good lawyers involved.
- 55:24Speaker 5: Influence. And that's actually something that we agree on.
- 55:28Speaker 1: We want real progress. We want a level playing field.
- 55:31Speaker 1: So don't belittle people. Don't ridicule them. Figure out what
- 55:35Speaker 1: it is in the argument that you agree on and
- 55:38Speaker 1: just take the celebrities out.
- 55:40Speaker 5: Of the argument.
- 55:42Speaker 2: I mean, it does seem difficult for Democrats to ignore
- 55:46Speaker 2: culture wars when some Republicans seem pretty intent on starting them.
- 55:51Speaker 2: One of your House colleagues, Nancy Mace, introduced a resolution
- 55:54Speaker 2: to ban transgender women from using women's bathrooms at the
- 55:57Speaker 2: Capitol that she said is specifically intended to target one
- 56:01Speaker 2: of your new colleagues, Sarah McBride. You know, Mace got
- 56:04Speaker 2: the media reaction she wanted. Mike Johnson just announced that
- 56:08Speaker 2: he's going to implement the policy. How do you think
- 56:11Speaker 2: Democrats should handle shit like that?
- 56:13Speaker 1: Well, one of the points is, like, don't accept the framing.
- 56:17Speaker 1: You know, like they're trying to fundraise off of being
- 56:19Speaker 1: mean to each other. Don't buy into it. You're creating
- 56:25Speaker 1: this feedback cycle when you're talking about this thing that's
- 56:29Speaker 1: just mean and thinking about how do we treat each
- 56:34Speaker 1: other like humans?
- 56:35Speaker 5: How are you a good neighbor?
- 56:37Speaker 1: How are you just like the same way that you
- 56:39Speaker 1: would take care of your neighbor at home? When somebody's hurting,
- 56:45Speaker 1: leave them groceries. Be humans to each other first and
- 56:48Speaker 1: not getting into a camp on it. And, and that,
- 56:52Speaker 1: that is a way to overcome some of this incentive
- 56:57Speaker 1: structure for like, you know, attention seeking behavior.
- 57:01Speaker 2: Yeah. I, I, I was struck by Congresswoman elect McBride's
- 57:06Speaker 2: like initial tweet about this after Nancy Mace did it,
- 57:08Speaker 2: where she was like, you know what? A lot of
- 57:09Speaker 2: people come to Congress and they have different journeys and
- 57:12Speaker 2: different life experiences. And I just hope we can all
- 57:14Speaker 2: treat each other with respect and kindness. And that to me,
- 57:16Speaker 2: I was like, that's, that's probably, that's the right response.
- 57:19Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 57:19Speaker 1: Like there's real, there is, there's serious work to be
- 57:22Speaker 1: done and it's not like picking on each other.
- 57:25Speaker 2: So I feel like a lot of people in politics
- 57:27Speaker 2: and in DC talk about rural districts like yours as
- 57:30Speaker 2: if they're anthropologists trying to understand a foreign culture. What
- 57:35Speaker 2: do you think are the most important things the national
- 57:38Speaker 2: conversation misses about where you live and the people you represent?
- 57:43Speaker 1: Well, like I think there's something very powerful and necessary.
- 57:47Speaker 1: Like I think when you have these big extract ideas like,
- 57:51Speaker 1: you know, environmentalism, they're very amorphous.
- 57:55Speaker 5: It means whatever that person thinks it means. You know,
- 57:57Speaker 5: but when.
- 57:58Speaker 4: You talk about loyalty to the Chehalis River, when you
- 58:02Speaker 4: talk about loyalty to, like, loving, you know, Forlorn Lakes
- 58:06Speaker 4: or loving the Gifford Pinchot, like, that means something to people.
- 58:09Speaker 5: And it exists in the concrete.
- 58:11Speaker 1: And, like, that is necessary to bring to the bigger
- 58:16Speaker 1: national conversation.
- 58:18Speaker 5: Like, that specific loyalty aspect is.
- 58:21Speaker 1: Necessary for people to do from all over the country,
- 58:24Speaker 1: from all different perspectives, all different kinds of communities. If
- 58:27Speaker 1: you want to arrive at something that is more universal
- 58:30Speaker 1: or that is like a national policy, you can't start
- 58:32Speaker 1: with the general and expect it to fit the specific.
- 58:36Speaker 5: Like you have to start from the specific.
- 58:38Speaker 2: There's a school of thought from some progressive Democrats that
- 58:42Speaker 2: the key to winning back working class voters who might
- 58:45Speaker 2: be more moderate than the national party on issues like
- 58:47Speaker 2: immigration or crime or guns is is with a more
- 58:50Speaker 2: populist economic agenda. As someone who has broken with the
- 58:55Speaker 2: party on some of these issues, what do you think
- 58:58Speaker 2: about that?
- 58:59Speaker 1: Well, I'm not a political scientist, so people mean all
- 59:03Speaker 1: different things when they name any of these things. But
- 59:08Speaker 1: one thing that sort of grinds my gears is people
- 59:11Speaker 1: are like, we're for the little guy. I'm like, nobody
- 59:14Speaker 1: asked you to call.
- 59:14Speaker 5: Me the little guy. Nobody self-identified. That's not a helpful framing.
- 59:18Speaker 1: It actually implies a hierarchy that I didn't ask to
- 59:21Speaker 1: be a part of. And so it starts from respect.
- 59:26Speaker 1: It starts from curiosity.
- 59:27Speaker 5: And you know, specificity.
- 59:31Speaker 1: So I think it's really important to bring that lens
- 59:34Speaker 1: of like, you know, when I was running the shop,
- 59:36Speaker 1: I remember, you know, having a fire inspector come and
- 59:40Speaker 1: tell me that I couldn't have a water-based fire extinguisher
- 59:42Speaker 1: because they were worried I wouldn't know the difference between,
- 59:45Speaker 1: you know, grease fire and electrical fire. And that means
- 59:48Speaker 1: they want me to be exposed to PFAPs every time
- 59:51Speaker 1: there's a fire.
- 59:53Speaker 5: You know, like, listen to us.
- 59:56Speaker 2: Right.
- 59:56Speaker 1: Like, assume that we know what we're talking about. and
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: then figure out why the policy isn't matching what I'm
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: saying is going on as a business owner in the trades.
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought about that, something you recently said, I
- 1:00:11Speaker 2: think you were talking to Jake Tapper, about, you know,
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: I'll have Democrats say to me, why does someone in
- 1:00:18Speaker 2: rural America, thousands of miles away from Mexico, how could
- 1:00:23Speaker 2: they care so much about the border and immigration? And
- 1:00:26Speaker 2: hearing you talk about fentanyl, and how your constituents have
- 1:00:31Speaker 2: experienced fentanyl crisis, it's like, well, they're not, we have
- 1:00:36Speaker 2: to stop thinking that people are just sitting there saying, oh,
- 1:00:39Speaker 2: the migrants are invading my town and I'm going to
- 1:00:42Speaker 2: be xenophobic and not something like fentanyl, which seems like
- 1:00:46Speaker 2: a real crisis in a lot of communities.
- 1:00:49Speaker 5: Yeah.
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: So when I was like, you know, running the auto shop,
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: you have to know to ask the right question to
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: get the right answer because people you cannot assume that
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: you are communicating with someone. Like, you have to ask
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: the same question multiple ways to get to, like, who
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: changed the oil last?
- 1:01:05Speaker 5: Like, why did they do it?
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: And it's a similar thing of, like, I have serious
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: questions about how polling has been done around this question.
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: Because are you asking about, you know, access to drug treatment?
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: Or are you talking about, you know, mental health? Because
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: I think you're going to draw different responses or presumptions.
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: And so, like, the necessity of specific, like, cultural, like
- 1:01:28Speaker 1: cultural fluency with the community you're talking to really matters.
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: Because I think we would get to a much clearer
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: idea that people are tired of seeing their family members die.
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: They are tired of seeing people throw their lives away.
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: I think, you know, we have like a hard look
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: in the mirror and people say like, I'm so empathetic,
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: you know, but like, are you holding empathy for the
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: person who's lost two pregnancies from fentanyl? or somebody who's
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: losing their child, somebody who's having their truck repossessed, losing
- 1:02:02Speaker 1: their business. Assume goodwill. Assume that people are good and
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: try to understand what it is they're saying and what
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: they're going through.
- 1:02:11Speaker 5: Curiosity.
- 1:02:12Speaker 2: That seems like good advice. Tell me about the proposal
- 1:02:15Speaker 2: that you and Congressman Jared Golden just introduced to create
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: a select committee on electoral reform. I thought that was interesting.
- 1:02:24Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean.
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: Increasingly, the American public feels like Congress is not trustworthy.
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: I think a lot of us believe that 90% of
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: Americans believe on 90% of the issues. So why are
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: the 10 things like dividing and driving the car instead
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: of the things that we agree on and the things
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: that we all agree are our priorities and our values?
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: So I think we need to have an electoral commission
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: to say, what are the paths to having a more
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: representative body? How do we deliver a body where there
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: are more people from the trades, more parents of young kids,
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: more people who are not homeowners, like people who are
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: in rural communities, people who don't.
- 1:03:06Speaker 5: Have internet at home.
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: Like we should have the American experience reflected in the
- 1:03:10Speaker 1: legislative body, whether that means, you know, something like open
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: primaries or proportional representation and having a bigger view of
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: not what is electorally useful to a district or a member,
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: but the bigger scale, like how do we have more
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: of our values and priorities reflected in more of Congress?
- 1:03:30Speaker 2: You've talked about how we need more normal people, quote unquote,
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: normal people in politics, which I agree. What do you
- 1:03:37Speaker 2: think the big impediments are for like just someone who
- 1:03:41Speaker 2: is reflective of the face of America and the richness
- 1:03:47Speaker 2: of the American experiences and all different geographies and trades
- 1:03:50Speaker 2: and everything else? What are some of the biggest impediments
- 1:03:53Speaker 2: to that person running for office?
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: Well, I mean, for one thing, it's like having the
- 1:03:59Speaker 1: time and the support to do it is one thing.
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: But it's also like when I first ran, I talked,
- 1:04:07Speaker 1: I remember talking to this political consultant and he literally
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: chortled when I told him that I had an eight
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: month old.
- 1:04:16Speaker 5: He was like, hope you never want to see your
- 1:04:17Speaker 5: baby again.
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: You know, and it's like being dismissed and made small
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: and saying that your experience is not relevant.
- 1:04:27Speaker 5: To legislating, that's patently false. I have passed the second.
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: Most number of amendments of anybody in my party in
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: my class. It's like having a different lens to view
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: things through is necessary, and it's productive to say, did
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: you think about the experience of a rural American when
- 1:04:45Speaker 1: you're legislating about whatever? And so bringing more of the experience,
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: that's necessary and productive. So it's not just having, it
- 1:04:56Speaker 1: can't just be about how much you can raise out
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: of your phone and your family, you know? And so
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: those are some really core things. Like it should not
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: be like, you know, candidly like having activists in the
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: largest big city nearby dictate who is a good fit
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: may not be a representative body.
- 1:05:14Speaker 3: Right.
- 1:05:15Speaker 2: Right. Last question. You've, you've talked about the need to
- 1:05:18Speaker 2: de-industrialize politics. that candidates and elected officials should tailor their
- 1:05:24Speaker 2: message and their focus on their own communities, their own voters.
- 1:05:27Speaker 2: You've certainly done that. It seems right for members of Congress.
- 1:05:30Speaker 2: And I know you're not focused on national politics, but
- 1:05:33Speaker 2: one thing I think a lot about now is whether
- 1:05:36Speaker 2: with a polarized electorate and a very fractured media environment,
- 1:05:43Speaker 2: it's still possible for a leader to speak to the
- 1:05:46Speaker 2: whole country in the future in a way that resonates
- 1:05:51Speaker 2: with Americans from all walks of life. What do you think?
- 1:05:55Speaker 5: Yes, hopefully.
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: But I think it's also true that words have been so,
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: like everything is so hot. Like you don't know what
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: somebody is hearing when you're talking to them about being,
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: you know, like environmentalism or stewardship or logging. Like you
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: don't know what that means to them. You don't know
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: the cultural connotation of that word. And so when you
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: are talking in specifics, there's power there because there.
- 1:06:18Speaker 5: Is something that we are all pointing to.
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: And from that should be derived our national values or
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: the national thing that we're talking about. But talking about
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: a specific experience, like in the granular level, like truth
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: is not black and white.
- 1:06:33Speaker 5: It is three-dimensional.
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: Like left versus right is not something that exists in nature.
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: Like I think if politics has a shape, it's probably
- 1:06:40Speaker 1: more like a nautilus or it is something different.
- 1:06:44Speaker 5: And so.
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: when you are introducing more nuance, there is power to
- 1:06:49Speaker 1: break the polarization. But you've got to get to an
- 1:06:54Speaker 1: issue before cable news does. You have to talk about
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: something before it's turned into.
- 1:07:01Speaker 5: Cannon fodder.
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:07:03Speaker 2: And it's probably, it's easy to say, we have so
- 1:07:06Speaker 2: much more in common than what divides us, which is
- 1:07:09Speaker 2: a political cliche that's been said over the years. I
- 1:07:13Speaker 2: do think there's something to even talking about your own
- 1:07:17Speaker 2: political experiences or your own life experiences in real specific
- 1:07:21Speaker 2: ways and saying, this may not be your life experience,
- 1:07:24Speaker 2: but I'm sure we have similar values and that we
- 1:07:28Speaker 2: want similar things, even if I experienced life in rural
- 1:07:32Speaker 2: Washington and you experienced life somewhere else. There's a language,
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: there's a political language that has been so sanded down
- 1:07:40Speaker 2: and repeated over the years that it sounds phony. even
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: if it wasn't intended to be phony. Yeah, yeah.
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: I mean, I guess one example I'm thinking of is
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: like wildfire was the second largest emitter of CO2 in
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: my state last year. And meanwhile, one of my counties
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: has just gone down to a four-day school week because
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: of falling timber revenue.
- 1:08:01Speaker 5: And so square that, right?
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: And say like when we stop using lumber and forest products, like.
- 1:08:11Speaker 5: They are replaced with oil. You stop using paper cups,
- 1:08:15Speaker 5: you start using plastic cups.
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: And having that bigger picture that comes from honest dialogue,
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: honest relationship, and lived experience in rural communities, and.
- 1:08:27Speaker 5: That is the full spectrum. You need all of that
- 1:08:29Speaker 5: to show up to have a productive dialogue.
- 1:08:32Speaker 2: Congresswoman, thank you, as always, for joining Pod Save America
- 1:08:37Speaker 2: and for always giving us so much to think about.
- 1:08:39Speaker 2: Appreciate it.
- 1:08:40Speaker 5: Thank you, Sven.
- 1:08:47Speaker 2: That's our show for today. Big thanks, as always, to
- 1:08:49Speaker 2: the Congresswoman for stopping by, and we will be back
- 1:08:52Speaker 2: with a new show on Tuesday. Bye, everybody. Bye, everyone.
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