Latest / Pod Save America / How Dems Can Defeat MAGA Once and For All
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- 1:24Speaker 3: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Back when
- 1:27Speaker 3: I worked for Barack Obama on his campaigns in the
- 1:29Speaker 3: White House, whenever we faced a political crisis, when things
- 1:31Speaker 3: felt like they were falling apart all around us, President
- 1:34Speaker 3: Obama would call a strategy meeting. They would last all day.
- 1:37Speaker 3: Sometimes they were at his house. Sometimes they were at
- 1:39Speaker 3: a nearby office. But every single time, they would last
- 1:42Speaker 3: hours and hours. We'd get the whole gang together to
- 1:44Speaker 3: try to figure out what went wrong and how we
- 1:46Speaker 3: could fix it. We didn't answer every question, but we
- 1:48Speaker 3: always left the meeting with a plan. The conversations around
- 1:51Speaker 3: the table focused my mind and made me smarter. And
- 1:54Speaker 3: even as I have celebrated Democratic victories and touted Trump's
- 1:56Speaker 3: declining poll numbers in recent weeks, I have had the
- 1:59Speaker 3: sinking suspicion that too many people in my party are
- 2:01Speaker 3: whistling past the graveyard. Trump's blunders are masking the political
- 2:04Speaker 3: crisis the Democratic Party is in. To figure out how
- 2:07Speaker 3: to get out of it, I wanted to have one
- 2:09Speaker 3: of those strategic conversations like the ones I used to
- 2:11Speaker 3: have in the Obama days. And there was no better
- 2:13Speaker 3: person to have that conversation with than David Plouffe. He
- 2:16Speaker 3: was Obama's campaign manager in 2008, his top political advisor
- 2:19Speaker 3: in the White House during the reelection, my boss in
- 2:22Speaker 3: both of those occasions. and was senior advisor to Kamala
- 2:25Speaker 3: Harris during the 2024 campaign. David is one of the
- 2:28Speaker 3: smartest and most strategic people in democratic politics, and I
- 2:31Speaker 3: wanted to sit down with him and talk about these issues.
- 2:34Speaker 3: David Plouffe, welcome back to Pod Save America.
- 2:36Speaker 4: Always good to be with you, Dan. Go Sixers.
- 2:39Speaker 3: Exactly. Go Sixers. All right. So you wrote an op-ed
- 2:41Speaker 3: in the New York Times, which got a lot of attention,
- 2:44Speaker 3: pissed off some powerful people, and I recommend everyone read it,
- 2:47Speaker 3: but I just want to give people a flavor of
- 2:50Speaker 3: it because it's going to guide our conversation today. Here's
- 2:53Speaker 3: what you write. Right now, Democrats have no credible path
- 2:57Speaker 3: to sustaining control of the Senate and the White House.
- 2:59Speaker 3: After the adjustments to the Electoral College map that most
- 3:02Speaker 3: likely come with the next census, the Democratic presidential nominee
- 3:05Speaker 3: could win all the states won by Kamala Harris, plus
- 3:07Speaker 3: the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and still
- 3:12Speaker 3: fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
- 3:14Speaker 3: The point of your op-ed is the Democratic Party is
- 3:17Speaker 3: in crisis. What caused you to take these thoughts to
- 3:20Speaker 3: the New York Times?
- 3:22Speaker 4: Well, Dan, and for me, I mean, I spent a
- 3:24Speaker 4: lot of time on the specifics, but the spirit of
- 3:26Speaker 4: it is more important to me than any specifics, which
- 3:28Speaker 4: is when you think about the Supreme Court, we could
- 3:31Speaker 4: have two, three retirements over the next decade. I think
- 3:34Speaker 4: that the view that somehow once Trump leaves the scene,
- 3:38Speaker 4: everything will return to normal. I think it's going to
- 3:39Speaker 4: get worse after Trump, not better. The only antidote really
- 3:43Speaker 4: is sustained democratic control of all chambers, but particularly the
- 3:48Speaker 4: president in the White House. And I'm sorry, the White
- 3:51Speaker 4: House and the Senate. And when you look at just
- 3:54Speaker 4: how few states were competitive in a presidential race or
- 3:57Speaker 4: the Senate, the math is just unrelenting. And what also
- 4:01Speaker 4: guides my thinking on this is the Republican Party right
- 4:04Speaker 4: now is dreadful. They are despised by the American people.
- 4:08Speaker 4: The only entity maybe more despised is the Democratic Party.
- 4:11Speaker 4: So when your opponent is in the shitter, that's the
- 4:15Speaker 4: time to kind of get out of the shitter you're in.
- 4:17Speaker 4: and really give voters a sense of, oh, there's new
- 4:21Speaker 4: people and there's new ideas and they seem different and
- 4:23Speaker 4: they're willing to admit their mistakes. There's clearly a huge
- 4:26Speaker 4: opening here for us to rebuild our brand, our electoral performance.
- 4:30Speaker 4: But if we don't do that, by the way, one
- 4:32Speaker 4: thing I think about, you and I both lived through
- 4:35Speaker 4: Merrick Garland. Let's say we win the White House, but
- 4:38Speaker 4: we don't have the Senate. Is there any guarantee, like
- 4:41Speaker 4: if Thomas or Alito, something were to happen to them,
- 4:44Speaker 4: they retired? that we could confirm a Supreme Court justice,
- 4:48Speaker 4: I wouldn't take that bet to the bank.
- 4:50Speaker 3: I would assume no.
- 4:51Speaker 4: It's not right. So you can either complain about it,
- 4:55Speaker 4: which we should do, or say, how do we make
- 4:57Speaker 4: sure something like that doesn't happen? So that more elections
- 5:00Speaker 4: than not, we have a chance to be 50 plus
- 5:03Speaker 4: in the Senate and hold the presidency for an extended
- 5:06Speaker 4: period of time. And I think if we do those things,
- 5:08Speaker 4: we're probably going to like where we are in the
- 5:09Speaker 4: House as well.
- 5:11Speaker 3: So I think it's worth just dialing in a little
- 5:13Speaker 3: bit on the electoral college point. We've talked about the Senate.
- 5:16Speaker 3: We'll talk about the Senate some more in this conversation
- 5:18Speaker 3: with Electoral College. As we sit here today, and these
- 5:21Speaker 3: are all estimates, but we have a pretty good sense
- 5:23Speaker 3: of where things are headed. The most likely scenario is
- 5:26Speaker 3: California and New York lose somewhere to be combined six
- 5:28Speaker 3: to seven votes, and Texas and Florida gain somewhere six
- 5:32Speaker 3: to seven votes, which means that the map that we
- 5:37Speaker 3: almost won with in 2016, we did win with in 2020,
- 5:40Speaker 3: we came close to winning in 2024, those are all
- 5:42Speaker 3: off the table. You would have to win with a
- 5:44Speaker 3: map that looked Like Obama 2012, you really have to
- 5:48Speaker 3: be competitive either in a whole swath of states in
- 5:50Speaker 3: which we're not competitive, or you have to be able
- 5:52Speaker 3: to win Florida or Texas or both. Otherwise, there's just
- 5:55Speaker 3: no really credible path to getting there on a regular basis.
- 5:58Speaker 4: Absolutely.
- 5:59Speaker 3: Is that right?
- 5:59Speaker 4: I mean, the blue wall doesn't get you there anymore,
- 6:04Speaker 4: even with that second congressional district of Nebraska, which by
- 6:07Speaker 4: the way, I assume they're going to change or try
- 6:09Speaker 4: to again. So yeah, I mean, we have to... Georgia, Arizona, Nevada,
- 6:14Speaker 4: all critical. We have to keep trying to figure out
- 6:17Speaker 4: how to get more competitive in Florida, eventually, you know,
- 6:19Speaker 4: break their back in Texas. But we've got to be
- 6:22Speaker 4: more competitive in more places. And you saw in 24,
- 6:25Speaker 4: you know, Nevada and Arizona weren't that close. You know, Georgia,
- 6:29Speaker 4: a little more competitive. So the notion that somehow after 20,
- 6:33Speaker 4: like Arizona and Nevada are going to be states that
- 6:37Speaker 4: we win more often than not, I don't think it's true.
- 6:39Speaker 4: We're We've got to put more targets on the board.
- 6:44Speaker 4: And that should scare everybody, that we could have a
- 6:47Speaker 4: great electoral performance in 2032, as we thought in this
- 6:50Speaker 4: last decade, and fall short. So we've got to put
- 6:53Speaker 4: more states in play. That's just the reality. And I
- 6:56Speaker 4: believe we have the opportunity to because I think some
- 6:59Speaker 4: of the gains Trump made with non-college voters, particularly of color,
- 7:03Speaker 4: you see them fleeing him. Doesn't mean we're going to
- 7:05Speaker 4: get them back, but they're open to that. I think
- 7:07Speaker 4: we've got the ability to do better in some rural communities,
- 7:11Speaker 4: not by a lot, but by a few points. Clearly,
- 7:13Speaker 4: you know, Kamala Harris actually showed real strength with some,
- 7:17Speaker 4: you know, college educated older white voters. So I think
- 7:20Speaker 4: we've got the ability to do that, but it's not
- 7:22Speaker 4: something we can say it should happen. It has to happen.
- 7:28Speaker 4: It has to happen or we're going to have neither
- 7:31Speaker 4: the Senate or the White House for the next decade.
- 7:33Speaker 4: And it's not going to be like Mitt Romney in charge.
- 7:36Speaker 4: It's going to be a more skillful, more palatable, but
- 7:39Speaker 4: super scary version of Trump.
- 7:42Speaker 3: And I think there is this paradox we're all living in,
- 7:44Speaker 3: which is the 2026 midterms look pretty good right now.
- 7:48Speaker 3: Not as good as they did in 2018, but the
- 7:51Speaker 3: House certainly has a map that is very winnable. The
- 7:53Speaker 3: Senate map, while hard, looks better than it's looked in
- 7:56Speaker 3: a long time. We have good candidates running in places.
- 7:58Speaker 3: We have some paths to get to 50 votes there,
- 8:00Speaker 3: which seemed impossible a year ago. As you mentioned, the
- 8:03Speaker 3: polls are pretty clear that Trump's dropped a lot. And
- 8:06Speaker 3: the New York Times poll that came out earlier this
- 8:09Speaker 3: week said very explicitly that Trump's numbers with the coalition
- 8:13Speaker 3: that powered him to victory in 2024, young voters, strictly
- 8:16Speaker 3: young men, Latino voters, working class, non-white voters, Trump's numbers
- 8:21Speaker 3: with those groups now look exactly like they did in
- 8:23Speaker 3: 2020 when he lost, not like when he won in 2024.
- 8:26Speaker 3: And that's all great news. But at the same time,
- 8:28Speaker 3: we're looking at this problem where even in today's world,
- 8:31Speaker 3: we are capped at like 53 Senate seats if we're lucky,
- 8:34Speaker 3: because we only have one. There's only one Republican in
- 8:38Speaker 3: a blue seat. There's only two Republicans in a purple seat.
- 8:41Speaker 3: If you count four, if you count North Carolina, a
- 8:43Speaker 3: state we haven't won since 2008, we have a low
- 8:46Speaker 3: ceiling there. Then you look at 2028, you could see
- 8:50Speaker 3: a world where you could say a generic good Democrat
- 8:55Speaker 3: can win the White House against the unpopular vice president
- 8:57Speaker 3: to an unpopular president. You can see that path. But
- 9:00Speaker 3: then that person is going to come in and have
- 9:01Speaker 3: to win with a much bigger... Normally, as we know,
- 9:05Speaker 3: your first election, you get to a number. And your second,
- 9:08Speaker 3: you get reelected with a smaller number. And that smaller
- 9:10Speaker 3: number is not going to work in 2032. And so
- 9:12Speaker 3: the paradox here is things look good in the short term.
- 9:16Speaker 3: In the long term, we have some pretty big changes
- 9:18Speaker 3: we have to make in our party to have what
- 9:21Speaker 3: you argue, which is sustainable control to actually stamp out MAGA.
- 9:25Speaker 3: This isn't ignoring all the problems Republicans have. It's that...
- 9:29Speaker 3: It's not when you're fighting against something that looks like
- 9:31Speaker 3: the MAGA movement, you can't just swap power every four years.
- 9:33Speaker 3: We've seen how damaging that could be. And so we
- 9:36Speaker 3: are sort of in this like crisis mode that, but it's,
- 9:40Speaker 3: it doesn't feel that way in the moment, but when
- 9:42Speaker 3: you take a step back, the party really has a
- 9:44Speaker 3: ton of work to do, which is why I think
- 9:45Speaker 3: Europe had some important and probably kind of pissed off
- 9:47Speaker 3: some people, but let's begin with the party brand, right? The,
- 9:52Speaker 3: where we are right now, the democratic party brand is
- 9:55Speaker 3: in the toilet. It's at around the lowest level it's
- 9:57Speaker 3: been in history. And that's concerning. for a lot of reasons.
- 10:00Speaker 3: But one reason is typically politics is seesaw. One side
- 10:04Speaker 3: goes down, the other one goes up. Trump has come down.
- 10:06Speaker 3: We have not gone up. What's your theory as to
- 10:10Speaker 3: what's happened to the Democratic Party brand? Because for the
- 10:11Speaker 3: most of the 21st century, other than right after 9-11,
- 10:16Speaker 3: the Democratic Party has been more popular than the Republican Party.
- 10:18Speaker 3: How do we get here?
- 10:19Speaker 4: Yeah. So just a second on some of what you
- 10:22Speaker 4: just said. I mean, the Times poll is interesting. I mean,
- 10:23Speaker 4: Trump obviously doesn't like it. He's threatening to sue them
- 10:26Speaker 4: based on the poll. But if you look at all
- 10:29Speaker 4: of his numbers, and by the way, I think one
- 10:31Speaker 4: of the tasks for 26 is, one, make every Republican
- 10:36Speaker 4: running for office own all the downside. In a way,
- 10:39Speaker 4: I think Trump historically has been stronger than a lot
- 10:42Speaker 4: of his candidates. Right now, I worry the opposite. You
- 10:44Speaker 4: got to make these guys and women pay full price.
- 10:46Speaker 4: But secondly, for us, yeah, 26 could be good. But
- 10:49Speaker 4: given what you just said, we don't have a Senate
- 10:50Speaker 4: race to lose or a House race we can waste.
- 10:54Speaker 4: Like we can't afford it. We've seen they, by nominating
- 10:57Speaker 4: a bunch of knuckleheads through the years, have lost Senate
- 11:00Speaker 4: races they should have won. We can't do that. So
- 11:02Speaker 4: we have to maximize 26 as well. Like you're a
- 11:05Speaker 4: big basketball fan. Like Michael Jordan never went into the
- 11:08Speaker 4: halftime locker room when they're up six happy. Like why
- 11:10Speaker 4: the fuck aren't we up 12? Like I think we
- 11:12Speaker 4: need more of that mentality. But that Times poll was
- 11:15Speaker 4: disconcerting because you think maybe the generic ballot should be seven, eight,
- 11:18Speaker 4: nine points, and it wasn't. And if it's that high,
- 11:21Speaker 4: by the way, we can definitely win the House with
- 11:23Speaker 4: some margin, but also win the Senate in this tough environment,
- 11:25Speaker 4: which I think should be the goal. I think with
- 11:27Speaker 4: the brand, I think, first of all, there's still a
- 11:30Speaker 4: hangover from Biden, both him running and I think people's
- 11:33Speaker 4: view that he mishandled the economy and the border. He
- 11:37Speaker 4: did a lot of great things, obviously, but right now
- 11:39Speaker 4: voters are penalizing him. And I think the Democratic Party
- 11:42Speaker 4: I think, kind of stood by and let that happen.
- 11:44Speaker 4: I think there's a sense from voters, I'm just reporting what,
- 11:47Speaker 4: you know, great researchers show us when they talk to voters,
- 11:50Speaker 4: that we weren't as maniacally focused on lifting wages and
- 11:56Speaker 4: helping people who are living their lives right now, as
- 11:58Speaker 4: opposed to we had, I think people thought we were
- 12:00Speaker 4: a little more ideologically focused. There's no doubt that there
- 12:03Speaker 4: was a sense from some voters that we were more
- 12:05Speaker 4: focused on social issues, as important as they are, than
- 12:07Speaker 4: the economy. And, you know, I think that... We haven't had,
- 12:13Speaker 4: you know, at the national level, you know, for some time,
- 12:17Speaker 4: kind of the exciting candidate. You know, Joe Biden won.
- 12:19Speaker 4: Thank goodness. Hillary ran a strong race. Kamala did. But
- 12:23Speaker 4: we haven't had the Obama, Clinton, Trump astride our party,
- 12:26Speaker 4: which becomes an avenue for people, I think, to. come
- 12:29Speaker 4: over to you. So I think the other thing I think,
- 12:32Speaker 4: you know, Mamdani's interesting. You've watched him closely as have I.
- 12:36Speaker 4: This is another thing. I mean, I've seen focus groups
- 12:38Speaker 4: where voters kind of say, listen, the Democrats seem like
- 12:41Speaker 4: the taxes we pay, they just kind of think it's
- 12:44Speaker 4: their money to spend. They don't accept any criticism of government.
- 12:48Speaker 4: They think all the answers are government. And we, you
- 12:50Speaker 4: and I know a lot of the answers are. But
- 12:52Speaker 4: what Mamdani shows is even a social Democrat, can blow
- 12:57Speaker 4: the whistle on government when it's doing dumb things. And
- 13:00Speaker 4: I wrote about this some in the op-ed. I think
- 13:01Speaker 4: Obama did a lot of this with some of our efforts.
- 13:04Speaker 4: Clinton did. It's really important for us as the believers
- 13:06Speaker 4: in government to be the first ones to say, hey,
- 13:09Speaker 4: when a program's not working or there's fraud, we're going
- 13:12Speaker 4: to blow the whistle on it. We're not going to
- 13:13Speaker 4: reflexively defend. The other thing I'd point out, I don't
- 13:16Speaker 4: think we've walked the walk. I mean, we criticize them
- 13:20Speaker 4: for being anti-democratic, for being autocracy-friendly. for not having any norms. But,
- 13:25Speaker 4: you know, when we have a guy in Illinois retire
- 13:27Speaker 4: from the House and he slides in at the 11th hour,
- 13:29Speaker 4: his preferred, you know, choice to replace him, you know,
- 13:33Speaker 4: the leadership says, well, we're not going to criticize him.
- 13:36Speaker 4: You know, even the delegate from the U.S. Virgin Islands
- 13:39Speaker 4: who got, you know, talking points from Jeffrey Epstein, we
- 13:41Speaker 4: rally around. So I think I get on the one hand,
- 13:45Speaker 4: there's a view that the Republicans never criticize each other,
- 13:48Speaker 4: which I actually don't agree with. I think they criticize
- 13:50Speaker 4: But if we truly want to tell people we've changed,
- 13:54Speaker 4: that we are going to defend them, that we're not
- 13:56Speaker 4: going to defend any corruption, we've got to be willing
- 13:58Speaker 4: to call it out in our own ranks, in my view.
- 14:01Speaker 4: And we have some fresh faces out there. I think
- 14:03Speaker 4: Tallarico is running a really interesting race. Obviously, Diane Osborne
- 14:07Speaker 4: is back in and I think is doing really well
- 14:09Speaker 4: in a tough place. So ultimately, the solution to this
- 14:12Speaker 4: is new leaders, new candidates, and ultimately who our nominee
- 14:15Speaker 4: is in 28 will determine so much, not just about
- 14:18Speaker 4: that election, But the next decade, we really have to
- 14:20Speaker 4: get that right. Someone who's a great vote getter and
- 14:24Speaker 4: can win by enough, as you said, to give us
- 14:26Speaker 4: a margin in the Senate. So I think all you
- 14:28Speaker 4: have to do is listen to voters and they talk
- 14:30Speaker 4: about what's wrong with the Democratic Party. You get an earful. Now,
- 14:32Speaker 4: the good news is they say just as negative things
- 14:36Speaker 4: about the Republicans, but they're in charge. So this is
- 14:39Speaker 4: my concern is. I think there was a little bit
- 14:42Speaker 4: of after 22, we had a better election than people thought.
- 14:44Speaker 3: Hugely after 22. It's like the great sin of the party.
- 14:47Speaker 4: It didn't carry forward. It was really because of Dobbs.
- 14:50Speaker 4: I think we could have a very good 26, but
- 14:52Speaker 4: that doesn't mean we've healed any of our wounds. And
- 14:55Speaker 4: to me, the tragedy would be if, you know, maybe
- 14:58Speaker 4: we have a good 26. Maybe, as you said, we
- 15:00Speaker 4: even win the White House in 28. But it's because
- 15:04Speaker 4: we are the least worst option. As opposed to some
- 15:07Speaker 4: voters saying, actually, yeah, I'm kind of done with MAGA. And,
- 15:11Speaker 4: you know, this Democratic Party or these Democratic candidates, they
- 15:14Speaker 4: seem a little bit different, what they're talking about. I
- 15:16Speaker 4: think we clearly have to refresh our economic agenda, centered
- 15:19Speaker 4: around non-college workers. Those are also the jobs probably least
- 15:22Speaker 4: at risk with AI in the near term until Musk
- 15:26Speaker 4: gets all his optimist robots everywhere. So I think that, anyway,
- 15:30Speaker 4: the way I always thought, you and I, you know,
- 15:32Speaker 4: went through the war together in 2012. And one of
- 15:35Speaker 4: the things we'd say is, even though it was a
- 15:36Speaker 4: tough economy, and I think for most of 11, most
- 15:39Speaker 4: observers thought we'd lose. Every time we did focus groups
- 15:42Speaker 4: with swing voters, people were still interested in what Obama
- 15:45Speaker 4: had to say. Their ears were open. And I think
- 15:48Speaker 4: for a lot of voters right now, they've closed their
- 15:50Speaker 4: ears because they just don't believe in what we're saying.
- 15:53Speaker 4: They need to hear new things, more compelling things, more
- 15:56Speaker 4: honest things, more things connected to their lives. And if
- 15:59Speaker 4: they do that, given the weakness of the Republicans, I
- 16:02Speaker 4: think we can really profit from it.
- 16:03Speaker 3: In your piece, and this is the part that pissed
- 16:05Speaker 3: off some people, got some members angry at you. You
- 16:08Speaker 3: argued that Democrats running for office should call for new
- 16:11Speaker 3: leadership in the House and the Senate. Do you think
- 16:13Speaker 3: Democrats really should ditch Jeffries and Schumer in the lot?
- 16:17Speaker 4: Well, listen, as you know, after the election, it's an
- 16:19Speaker 4: inside game. And I would imagine both of those gentlemen
- 16:22Speaker 4: will have, you know, the inside track to leadership if
- 16:26Speaker 4: we win back the House and her Senate. But that
- 16:28Speaker 4: doesn't mean that a candidate, the way I always think
- 16:31Speaker 4: about this, Dan, is if you're in a room of
- 16:32Speaker 4: 150 people in central Iowa, okay, or in suburban Arizona,
- 16:36Speaker 4: and a House candidate or a Senate candidate is talking
- 16:38Speaker 4: to a group of voters, And you say, listen, I'm
- 16:41Speaker 4: running against Trump. I think what they're doing is harmful
- 16:43Speaker 4: to the economy, to our country. There's a bunch of
- 16:46Speaker 4: institutions that aren't delivering for people. But I also think
- 16:48Speaker 4: my party has to change. Like, people are going to
- 16:51Speaker 4: be nodding their heads, right? So I would just say this.
- 16:53Speaker 4: Nancy Pelosi, who's one of the greatest leaders in the
- 16:55Speaker 4: history of America, was always very free and open with candidates.
- 16:59Speaker 4: You say what you have to say to win, even
- 17:03Speaker 4: if they were critical of her. And, you know, these
- 17:05Speaker 4: positions aren't about any one person. You know, there's an existential...
- 17:10Speaker 4: thing hanging over us that we have to at least
- 17:11Speaker 4: win one of these chambers. I would argue two, given
- 17:14Speaker 4: some of the structural things we talked about. So I
- 17:16Speaker 4: think there'll be candidates out there that already are, you know,
- 17:18Speaker 4: challenging leadership. I would suspect at the end of the day,
- 17:21Speaker 4: if we're successful electorally, the current leaders will, you know,
- 17:24Speaker 4: ultimately be the successful candidates. I don't know if other
- 17:27Speaker 4: people will run or not. As you know, that's still
- 17:29Speaker 4: an inside game. But I guess my point is, Dan,
- 17:31Speaker 4: we need candidates to just let it rip and kind
- 17:34Speaker 4: of burn all the houses down because that's what voters
- 17:36Speaker 4: want to hear.
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- 20:38Speaker 3: You're exactly right. If the Democrats take the House, Hakeem
- 20:42Speaker 3: Jeffries is going to get reelected and probably should, right?
- 20:44Speaker 3: That's your job. Your job is to win the majority.
- 20:45Speaker 3: You want the majority. That's great. I don't know what
- 20:49Speaker 3: will happen with Schumer. That's probably maybe a tougher bill there.
- 20:52Speaker 3: I do think the candidates who run on– this is
- 20:54Speaker 3: really important. The candidates who run on, I'm going to
- 20:57Speaker 3: vote for someone else, have to actually vote for someone else.
- 21:00Speaker 3: when they get there, because otherwise you are making, you're
- 21:03Speaker 3: just like, then you're just, you're playing the game and
- 21:05Speaker 3: you're going to look ridiculous, but you actually have to
- 21:07Speaker 3: follow through on it. Cause there's a bunch of people,
- 21:08Speaker 3: Plattner said he's not voting for Schumer, uh, Mallory McMorrow.
- 21:12Speaker 3: And I think, uh, maybe, uh, I know Mallory McMorrow,
- 21:14Speaker 3: maybe Abdul Saeed, others have said they won't support Schumer.
- 21:17Speaker 3: There are some people saying that, but then you actually
- 21:19Speaker 3: got to, you got to do it. You can't then
- 21:20Speaker 3: come here to a photo op of Schumer and then
- 21:21Speaker 3: vote for him.
- 21:22Speaker 4: Yeah. But you know, there'll be a process and you know, uh,
- 21:25Speaker 4: you know, maybe multiple votes. We'll see who emerges, but
- 21:28Speaker 4: I guess I think, you know, The most important thing
- 21:31Speaker 4: in an election is to meet voters where they are,
- 21:33Speaker 4: to understand where they are, their concerns. And I think
- 21:36Speaker 4: that they're very concerned about Trump and MAGA, the economy.
- 21:39Speaker 4: They're very concerned about, you know, Greenland. They're very concerned
- 21:43Speaker 4: about a whole host of things, the ICE raids. But,
- 21:47Speaker 4: you know, they're not sure that we're the remedy. And
- 21:49Speaker 4: I think candidates ought to understand that.
- 21:51Speaker 3: One of the things you'll hear from when people like
- 21:53Speaker 3: you and I have this conversation in the Sabbath Social
- 21:55Speaker 3: Pod Save America all the time, we talk about the
- 21:56Speaker 3: problems with the Democratic Party. Or argue that Democrats should
- 22:00Speaker 3: run against the Democratic Party. You'll hear from people in
- 22:03Speaker 3: the party, and you probably heard this after your op-ed,
- 22:05Speaker 3: that one of the reasons the Democratic Party brand is
- 22:09Speaker 3: down is that the people who are most critical of
- 22:11Speaker 3: the Democratic Party are Democrats. Do you have any response
- 22:14Speaker 3: to that?
- 22:15Speaker 4: Well, Dan, I think, you know, people like you and
- 22:18Speaker 4: I are kind of mostly irrelevant. It's what the Democratic
- 22:21Speaker 4: Party voters are saying. You know, it's the general public.
- 22:26Speaker 4: So swing voters for sure. you know, express strong concern,
- 22:31Speaker 4: but also Democrats. So at the end of the day,
- 22:33Speaker 4: I just think we have to be honest. And I
- 22:36Speaker 4: think our strongest candidates historically, you look at Barack Obama,
- 22:40Speaker 4: you look at Bill Clinton, you look at John F. Kennedy,
- 22:43Speaker 4: you know, on their side, Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan, these
- 22:46Speaker 4: people who build electoral coalitions, you know, were pretty clear
- 22:50Speaker 4: about while they were running against Republicans and running against
- 22:54Speaker 4: problems in the country, they also wanted to change things
- 22:57Speaker 4: about their own party. And you know, I think it's
- 23:00Speaker 4: hard to argue that we don't have some form of
- 23:03Speaker 4: market failure if you use that in a political context,
- 23:05Speaker 4: which is voters right now for the most part have
- 23:07Speaker 4: two choices, that's it. They're dissatisfied with both choices. So
- 23:11Speaker 4: what if you strengthen your hand so they're slightly less
- 23:14Speaker 4: dissatisfied with you while your opponent's still stuck in the gutter?
- 23:18Speaker 4: So I just think that's not healthy. And by the way,
- 23:21Speaker 4: I think that's largely a social media, very online discussion.
- 23:25Speaker 4: I don't think that's what real people out in the
- 23:27Speaker 4: country are talking about. If they actually support the Democratic Party,
- 23:30Speaker 4: they want it to be as strong as possible, not
- 23:33Speaker 4: to convince ourselves somehow we're stronger than we actually are.
- 23:38Speaker 3: I want to get to 28 in the long term
- 23:40Speaker 3: here in a second, but let's stick on 26 because
- 23:41Speaker 3: that's sort of the wolf closest to the door here.
- 23:44Speaker 3: In your piece, you argue that we have to make
- 23:46Speaker 3: Republicans own all of Trump's problems. I think there's a
- 23:49Speaker 3: bit of an internal debate, and I'm having it within
- 23:51Speaker 3: myself too, about whether as a party... we are too
- 23:55Speaker 3: focused on Trump as opposed to the Republicans. Because you
- 23:59Speaker 3: can see this in the Wall Street Journal poll that
- 24:01Speaker 3: came out about a week ago. Trump's numbers are in
- 24:03Speaker 3: the toilet on every issue, right? He's barely above water
- 24:06Speaker 3: on border security and everything else underwater. But then when
- 24:09Speaker 3: you ask people who do they trust more on inflation, economy, immigration,
- 24:14Speaker 3: et cetera, a generic Republican in Congress or generic Democrat
- 24:17Speaker 3: in Congress, they pick Republicans by pretty large margins. And
- 24:20Speaker 3: so I think we have this dilemma, which is, There
- 24:24Speaker 3: is a short-term turnout advantage to making our race be
- 24:27Speaker 3: about Trump. Like that will get our people fired up.
- 24:30Speaker 3: That will get donations from grassroots donations. But it does
- 24:34Speaker 3: have some medium and long-term consequences for the fact that
- 24:36Speaker 3: the guy's never on the ballot again. How are you
- 24:40Speaker 3: thinking about that question?
- 24:41Speaker 4: Well, I'm glad you singled out some of those generic
- 24:44Speaker 4: matchup questions with issues because it should scare the living
- 24:46Speaker 4: daylights out of us.
- 24:48Speaker 3: That's why the generic ballot's five, not eight, right?
- 24:50Speaker 4: Not eight, right. So I think that if you think
- 24:53Speaker 4: about an incumbent House Republican or even a Republican running
- 24:57Speaker 4: in an open seat, or certainly, you know, Collins and
- 25:00Speaker 4: Cruz and Ricketts, I think the task between now and
- 25:04Speaker 4: November is to make them own factories closing, people losing healthcare, like,
- 25:11Speaker 4: you know, starting in the beginning of February, a bunch
- 25:12Speaker 4: of people who signed up on the exchanges aren't going
- 25:14Speaker 4: to go through with it because it costs so much
- 25:16Speaker 4: because the Republicans make them own that, make them own
- 25:18Speaker 4: the tariffs and what that's done. So I think that, um,
- 25:23Speaker 4: you know, the way I think you bring Trump in
- 25:24Speaker 4: that is maybe to say they've not stood up to
- 25:26Speaker 4: Trump or they've supported Trump, but the most important thing
- 25:30Speaker 4: is to make them own it. So if I had to,
- 25:33Speaker 4: you know, say, how do you spend $ 10 or 10 minutes,
- 25:36Speaker 4: you know, I'd spend seven or eight of those dollars
- 25:38Speaker 4: or minutes making the case against that Republican elected official
- 25:42Speaker 4: or candidate separate apart from Trump, that they own this,
- 25:47Speaker 4: you know, so that I think, you know, you know
- 25:49Speaker 4: how these races are, 26. Even if we win back
- 25:52Speaker 4: the House, You know, there could be eight, 10, 12
- 25:56Speaker 4: seats we don't win by 1,000 or 2,000 votes. If
- 25:58Speaker 4: we don't win back the Senate, it could be close.
- 26:00Speaker 4: So making them pay full price. So those swing voters
- 26:03Speaker 4: who go into the booth say, this person is not
- 26:06Speaker 4: separate from Trump. And here's the other reason this is important, Dan.
- 26:09Speaker 4: By the summer and certainly by the fall, all of
- 26:11Speaker 4: these candidates are going to be lying and talking about
- 26:15Speaker 4: where they stood up to Trump or where they disagreed
- 26:17Speaker 4: with Trump. And the more that we lay that concrete
- 26:20Speaker 4: now and through the course of the campaign, the It'll
- 26:22Speaker 4: be harder for them to do that. So I'm concerned
- 26:25Speaker 4: that some of these, you know, Republican candidates who are
- 26:27Speaker 4: on the more skillful side of things will convince some
- 26:30Speaker 4: of these voters, well, that's all Trump. You know, my
- 26:32Speaker 4: guy or my woman tried to basically stop him or
- 26:35Speaker 4: had a different idea.
- 26:36Speaker 3: Does it affect your calculus at all that the Senate
- 26:40Speaker 3: battleground is taking place almost entirely in states Trump won?
- 26:43Speaker 3: And the House battleground, as much as we'd like to
- 26:45Speaker 3: think that this is his favorable territory for us, there
- 26:46Speaker 3: are only, I think it has four seats that have
- 26:49Speaker 3: Republicans in districts that Kamala Harris won. There's not that
- 26:52Speaker 3: many in districts that Trump won by five. There's been
- 26:55Speaker 3: a narrow 2024 GOP-like majority and an actual real majority
- 27:01Speaker 3: in the House. You have to win Trump plus seven,
- 27:04Speaker 3: plus eight, plus 10 seats. Does that affect how you
- 27:07Speaker 3: think about it? Or is it dissatisfaction with Trump among
- 27:10Speaker 3: independents and this three to 7% slice of 2024 Trump
- 27:16Speaker 3: voters enough to put those districts in play that you
- 27:18Speaker 3: can run against Trump there?
- 27:19Speaker 4: No, I don't think so. I mean, I think particularly
- 27:21Speaker 4: in those Trump 10, Trump 12 districts, Trump 8, you know,
- 27:26Speaker 4: you've got to put the Republican incumbent on trial and
- 27:29Speaker 4: they have to own, you know, your energy costs are up,
- 27:33Speaker 4: your health care costs are up, this big factory closed,
- 27:37Speaker 4: you know, your paycheck's not going further, further enough. I
- 27:40Speaker 4: think you've got, they're the ones on the ballot, not Trump.
- 27:43Speaker 4: And so I think you have to make it about them.
- 27:45Speaker 4: And your point about these districts and the Senate is
- 27:47Speaker 4: really important. Like, This is hostile territory. So even though
- 27:51Speaker 4: we have a very good environment, this is another reason
- 27:53Speaker 4: I'm very focused on how do we maximize every vote
- 27:57Speaker 4: with repair and refresh and reform of the democratic offering
- 28:01Speaker 4: because we're going into some deeply hostile places that we
- 28:05Speaker 4: may be able to win just because Trump's so unpopular,
- 28:07Speaker 4: people's economic concerns are so profound, but nobody should underestimate
- 28:11Speaker 4: the degree of difficulty here. This is gonna be really,
- 28:14Speaker 4: really hard to win But to your point, where you
- 28:17Speaker 4: could actually maybe get into the mid-220s or high-220s in
- 28:20Speaker 4: the House, you're going to be winning a bunch of
- 28:22Speaker 4: places that are pretty red.
- 28:25Speaker 3: And I mean, this also goes to the party brand
- 28:27Speaker 3: question about why over the course of the next period here,
- 28:31Speaker 3: people have to fundamentally have a fundamentally different view of
- 28:33Speaker 3: who Democrats are, because otherwise we're renting these seats for
- 28:37Speaker 3: two years in the House, maybe four years if we
- 28:40Speaker 3: can make it through the presidential year. And these are
- 28:42Speaker 3: one-term senators, right? This is a let's say Mary Paltola
- 28:45Speaker 3: is lucky enough to get through in a tough race
- 28:47Speaker 3: in Alaska or James Tallarico or someone else can win
- 28:50Speaker 3: in Texas or Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio, is they're
- 28:53Speaker 3: winning because they are running in the right year with
- 28:55Speaker 3: the right political environment. And the next time they are up,
- 28:57Speaker 3: it's going to be in a presidential election year and
- 28:59Speaker 3: look very different. And so in 32, and so you
- 29:03Speaker 3: actually have to be able to keep these seats, not
- 29:06Speaker 3: rent them. And that requires like not winning on a
- 29:09Speaker 3: sort of a black swan event of just the one
- 29:11Speaker 3: year of inflation, Trump being unpopular, chaos in the streets,
- 29:17Speaker 3: and you win. It really hammers the point that you're
- 29:22Speaker 3: winning despite the brand in 26. You have to win
- 29:26Speaker 3: again in 32 for these senators or 28, 30 for
- 29:31Speaker 3: the House members. The brand has to look very different
- 29:34Speaker 3: to people. It has to be palatable in these states. Right.
- 29:37Speaker 4: Or you're right. You're running and you give it right
- 29:39Speaker 4: back in 32. I mean, I think sometimes people think
- 29:42Speaker 4: it's crazy to think beyond the next election, but we
- 29:44Speaker 4: haven't done enough of that, which is what's the big
- 29:47Speaker 4: thing here at play, right? And that's in terms of investing, infrastructure,
- 29:51Speaker 4: but also understanding. So all you're trying to do is
- 29:53Speaker 4: win the Senate. But to your point, you've got to
- 29:56Speaker 4: look down the road because Let's say we win a
- 29:58Speaker 4: bunch of these places, Ohio, Alaska. I mean, from your
- 30:01Speaker 4: lips to God's ears, that would be amazing. But then 32,
- 30:05Speaker 4: let's say we win the White House in 28. So,
- 30:07Speaker 4: you know, you have a Democrat running for reelection, tough map,
- 30:11Speaker 4: presidential year turnout, super hard. So that's the test, I think,
- 30:14Speaker 4: is can we get to the point where year after year,
- 30:17Speaker 4: cycle after cycle, we feel that we have a 50%
- 30:22Speaker 4: chance at least to win. And right now, I think
- 30:26Speaker 4: you'd say, of course not. I mean, we need to
- 30:28Speaker 4: take it, you know, we need to be gifted, you know,
- 30:31Speaker 4: political tailwinds. And I just don't think that that is
- 30:36Speaker 4: going to save the country when we look at the threat.
- 30:39Speaker 4: I mean, I, you know, you think about the court,
- 30:41Speaker 4: like it's not, maybe it's not likely. It's also not crazy.
- 30:45Speaker 4: Like we could have an 8-1 court by like 2040
- 30:48Speaker 4: if we don't have sustained political party.
- 30:50Speaker 3: 8-1.
- 30:51Speaker 4: And that's almost like Katie shut the door time. Yeah.
- 30:55Speaker 3: As you think about the strategy for this cycle, and
- 30:58Speaker 3: I've had this debate with people in the House leadership,
- 31:00Speaker 3: I can't tell if they agree with me or not,
- 31:02Speaker 3: but do you think the party needs their version of
- 31:07Speaker 3: Contracts for America or something, you know, the six for
- 31:10Speaker 3: six from 2006, like a policy agenda of here are
- 31:14Speaker 3: the things that we are going to try to do
- 31:17Speaker 3: if we win or that we, you know, that we
- 31:20Speaker 3: stand for if we win? Like, do we actually need
- 31:22Speaker 3: a positive agenda or is that giving The argument against,
- 31:25Speaker 3: which you hear from a lot of people, and a
- 31:26Speaker 3: lot of people at high levels of power in our
- 31:28Speaker 3: party is, Trump is failing, he is losing. By putting
- 31:31Speaker 3: our own agenda out there, we're giving them a target
- 31:33Speaker 3: and making it more of a choice than a referendum.
- 31:35Speaker 3: And we really want it to be a referendum. What
- 31:36Speaker 3: do you think?
- 31:38Speaker 4: Well, it's interesting. So much of this originates back to
- 31:40Speaker 4: the 94 race and the contract with America. What people
- 31:43Speaker 4: forget is heading into the election, the contract for America
- 31:46Speaker 4: was a very minor part of that election. But as
- 31:48Speaker 4: you know, when you win an election, you've got to
- 31:49Speaker 4: tell the story about why you won. So I think
- 31:52Speaker 4: we ought to also be grounded in the fact that 94,
- 31:56Speaker 4: those results, which were historic at the time, we've had
- 31:59Speaker 4: landslides since, was not about the contract with America. And
- 32:03Speaker 4: so now what's interesting is, I guess, as I think
- 32:08Speaker 4: about this question, the most important people to answer the
- 32:11Speaker 4: question are the candidates running in tough House and Senate races.
- 32:14Speaker 4: And my suspicion is they would rather not have a
- 32:19Speaker 4: national Republican versus national Democratic campaign, in part because Trump
- 32:22Speaker 4: and the Republicans are unpopular. Democratic brands unpopular. I can
- 32:26Speaker 4: be something different. I don't want to be tied to
- 32:28Speaker 4: the party. So, you know, to the extent the House
- 32:31Speaker 4: and Senate leadership are thinking about this, I would be
- 32:33Speaker 4: in dialogue not with my colleagues in the caucus rooms.
- 32:36Speaker 4: I would be talking to the vulnerable candidates, you know,
- 32:41Speaker 4: in House and Senate races and get their view. My
- 32:43Speaker 4: guess is they would say it's not helpful. I think
- 32:47Speaker 4: I'll do better kind of flying my own flag than
- 32:50Speaker 4: being tied at all to a National Democratic Party flag.
- 32:52Speaker 4: But that's my view. It's a tough call.
- 32:54Speaker 3: Yeah, so my mind is not made up on it.
- 32:57Speaker 3: I think the counter argument is, one, if you're running
- 33:00Speaker 3: in a very red seat, you should run against it.
- 33:02Speaker 3: That's also helpful. No one has any idea what we
- 33:06Speaker 3: stand for. We live in this massive communications vacuum. I mean,
- 33:10Speaker 3: if you talk to voters, ask them when the last
- 33:11Speaker 3: time they saw a Democrat who was not AOC or
- 33:15Speaker 3: Mamdani or maybe Bernie speak. And not that there's any
- 33:18Speaker 3: problem with them speaking. I think that's great. But just
- 33:20Speaker 3: very few of them actually break through. Many of them
- 33:22Speaker 3: couldn't pick Schumer or Jefferson out of a lineup. It's
- 33:25Speaker 3: just that like the communications asymmetry is so big is one.
- 33:30Speaker 3: The other– and so having something that they're putting throw
- 33:34Speaker 3: weight behind a message about something we stand for. Like
- 33:36Speaker 3: I'm not saying that you should put like Medicare for
- 33:37Speaker 3: all in here or– but like an idea of– maybe
- 33:41Speaker 3: you could.
- 33:41Speaker 4: I don't know.
- 33:42Speaker 3: But just the ideas that you would have is like
- 33:45Speaker 3: a handful of affordability ideas and some reform ideas. Like
- 33:51Speaker 3: this is the part where I think probably get the
- 33:52Speaker 3: most pushback from the leadership is I think The huge
- 33:56Speaker 3: error– I think there's three sins that have put us
- 33:59Speaker 3: in this place of our own doing. Some of the
- 34:02Speaker 3: reason why the party brand's in the toilet is circumstance
- 34:05Speaker 3: of being president at the wrong time during COVID and
- 34:09Speaker 3: during sort of the– when people are ready to get
- 34:13Speaker 3: out of COVID but could not yet get out fast
- 34:15Speaker 3: enough and then inflation. But it's Biden running again, right?
- 34:18Speaker 3: And then everything that came with Biden's inability and unwillingness
- 34:23Speaker 3: to communicate basically throughout his entire presidency in a way
- 34:26Speaker 3: that voters actually heard. The second is misreading the 2020
- 34:31Speaker 3: election to think it meant that people, that Biden's victory
- 34:34Speaker 3: was a validation of institution norms in the pre-Trump political
- 34:38Speaker 3: system when it was just like, it was much more,
- 34:41Speaker 3: it was not that at all. It was just, it
- 34:46Speaker 3: was more rejection of the system than anything else and
- 34:48Speaker 3: that people hate the political system and we became defenders
- 34:51Speaker 3: of the political system in a very dangerous way. And
- 34:53Speaker 3: the third one is misreading the 2022 midterms, as we
- 34:56Speaker 3: were talking about, as a validation of where Democrats were
- 34:59Speaker 3: as opposed to like a blip in time. On the
- 35:03Speaker 3: second one, I do think that one thing the party
- 35:05Speaker 3: has to do, maybe this is what the good candidates
- 35:07Speaker 3: will do, which is also fine, is actually– and part
- 35:10Speaker 3: of this is running against the party. Like that gets
- 35:12Speaker 3: into that. But also it's how do you get money
- 35:15Speaker 3: out of politics? How do you get lobbyists out of politics?
- 35:17Speaker 3: How do you deal with corporate power in politics? Like
- 35:20Speaker 3: they're you know, the most basic thing we can't get,
- 35:22Speaker 3: we have been failed to do for years now, stop
- 35:25Speaker 3: members of Congress from trading stocks. Like that sort of
- 35:27Speaker 3: stuff could be part of an agenda that actually helps.
- 35:30Speaker 3: Now I, obviously my mind is still not made up here,
- 35:32Speaker 3: but I think it is like, that's, that dilemma is,
- 35:35Speaker 3: do you leave a vacuum for the other side to define?
- 35:38Speaker 3: Or do you give your, or do you have like
- 35:41Speaker 3: a ready-made answer for what you would actually do? Which
- 35:44Speaker 3: I know is hard because you can't do any of
- 35:45Speaker 3: the things if you win and they have the White House, right?
- 35:47Speaker 3: That is the challenge.
- 35:48Speaker 4: Well, and one, I don't know if this is right.
- 35:50Speaker 4: I mean, maybe it doesn't have to be a comprehensive
- 35:54Speaker 4: agenda that tackles and tickles every issue. Maybe it's- No,
- 35:57Speaker 4: it shouldn't be. Maybe it's on corruption. And so our
- 35:59Speaker 4: House and Senate candidates, most of who have compelling ideas
- 36:03Speaker 4: around this, can say, I've talked to the House and
- 36:05Speaker 4: Senate leadership and they say, yeah, if we went back
- 36:08Speaker 4: day one, banning stocks, crypto, you know, you know, no lobbying. Like, oh,
- 36:15Speaker 4: this is a place, by the way, where I think
- 36:17Speaker 4: voters also, they don't trust somehow that we're going to
- 36:19Speaker 4: be different because we've defended a lot of this stuff.
- 36:21Speaker 4: Like I think on sort of anti-corruption stuff, you can't
- 36:25Speaker 4: go far enough. And I think our candidates, for the
- 36:27Speaker 4: most part, will go very far on this. This is
- 36:29Speaker 4: where it would be helpful if they can say, no, no,
- 36:31Speaker 4: it's not pie in the sky. There's going to be
- 36:32Speaker 4: a vote. So, you know, it could be, maybe it's not,
- 36:35Speaker 4: you know, our agenda on economy, on healthcare, on education,
- 36:38Speaker 4: on immigration, on corruption, maybe. But if not, there may
- 36:41Speaker 4: be pieces of that That are helpful to the candidates
- 36:44Speaker 4: that don't cause them problems.
- 36:47Speaker 3: The hard part with the corruption stuff, because this is
- 36:49Speaker 3: another battle I've been having with people for basically since 2020,
- 36:52Speaker 3: because I've always believed that corruption is an important part
- 36:55Speaker 3: of the story we should be telling. But then you
- 36:57Speaker 3: talk to pollsters and they'll show you voters either don't
- 37:00Speaker 3: care about as much as you think they do, or
- 37:02Speaker 3: more importantly, don't trust Democrats to do anything about it.
- 37:05Speaker 3: And this is a place, and we'll talk about this
- 37:07Speaker 3: a little bit when we get to 28, but this
- 37:09Speaker 3: is a place where biography, the message and the messenger
- 37:13Speaker 3: do it. I would imagine Mamdani can come across as
- 37:17Speaker 3: a reform-oriented candidate because he's seen as an outsider to
- 37:20Speaker 3: the system. AOC could. Maybe Plattner could. Maybe some of
- 37:24Speaker 3: these other candidates could. But the establishment Democratic politician is
- 37:28Speaker 3: not going to be trusted to all of a sudden
- 37:30Speaker 3: start caring about you know, members of Congress leaving to
- 37:34Speaker 3: become lobbyists, right? And then coming back, using their four
- 37:36Speaker 3: privileges to come back and twist arms. Like that is
- 37:38Speaker 3: part of the, I guess that is part of the challenge.
- 37:41Speaker 3: You need the right candidate to be able.
- 37:42Speaker 4: To pull it off. Well, an outsider candidate though, see,
- 37:44Speaker 4: I mean, I think that, and I don't think it
- 37:46Speaker 4: should be based on Trump. You can say, listen, we've
- 37:48Speaker 4: seen a bunch of corruption, but you know, this predates Trump,
- 37:50Speaker 4: it's Republicans and Democrats.
- 37:52Speaker 3: It's Democrats too, yeah.
- 37:54Speaker 4: And I think what it is, is it goes beyond just,
- 37:56Speaker 4: do people think that's important to them? And I agree,
- 37:58Speaker 4: it's not important as how far their paycheck's going. But
- 38:01Speaker 4: it also says this is an outsider. This is someone
- 38:04Speaker 4: who's willing to challenge our own party, the status quo.
- 38:07Speaker 4: So there's a credentialing thing. I agree. Someone who's a
- 38:10Speaker 4: longtime House member running for the Senate is not going
- 38:13Speaker 4: to be as credible as someone who's basically a frustrated
- 38:16Speaker 4: citizen saying they've had enough and they're going to be
- 38:19Speaker 4: basically a tribune for people on that issue.
- 38:22Speaker 3: And I've mentioned Platten here a couple of times only
- 38:23Speaker 3: because you could do, there are other candidates too, but
- 38:26Speaker 3: he's just sort of become the prototypical outsider Democratic candidate.
- 38:30Speaker 3: Dan Osborne, who is not actually a Democrat, but is
- 38:32Speaker 3: another example like that. And there are a bunch of people,
- 38:35Speaker 3: a bunch of House member, you know, House candidates who
- 38:38Speaker 3: fit that, you know.
- 38:39Speaker 4: Yes.
- 38:39Speaker 3: You know, the people running, the woman running, the fire
- 38:43Speaker 3: general or fire military officer who's running in South Carolina.
- 38:46Speaker 3: You get a whole bunch of ones like that. But like,
- 38:49Speaker 3: those are the sorts of candidates. All right, let's pivot
- 38:51Speaker 3: to 28, because in the long term here. But before
- 38:54Speaker 3: we get to 28, because I know this will be–
- 38:55Speaker 3: but just so we must suffer a little bit, I
- 38:57Speaker 3: want to go back to 24 a little bit because
- 38:59Speaker 3: I think there are some– I've always found this is
- 39:02Speaker 3: a benefit of being working in democratic politics before Obama
- 39:08Speaker 3: is I always learned more from the races I lost,
- 39:10Speaker 3: so I had a lot of opportunities to learn. More
- 39:13Speaker 3: than the ones you win, because when you win, you
- 39:15Speaker 3: think everything you did was correct. When you lose, you
- 39:17Speaker 3: think you actually picture it. You and I, we talked
- 39:21Speaker 3: on this podcast a couple of weeks after the election.
- 39:25Speaker 3: My brain had not yet processed it. I can't imagine
- 39:27Speaker 3: yours had either coming right off that campaign for 108
- 39:30Speaker 3: however long you were there. But now with the passage
- 39:32Speaker 3: of time, are there things when you look back at
- 39:35Speaker 3: that race? And I don't mean the things that I
- 39:38Speaker 3: think were beyond the campaign's control, like the amount of time,
- 39:42Speaker 3: like Biden's decision to run the short campaign, or even,
- 39:46Speaker 3: and I say this because she wrote about it in
- 39:48Speaker 3: her book, Kamala Harris's own unwillingness to separate from Biden
- 39:53Speaker 3: in the sort of dramatic way a lot of voters
- 39:55Speaker 3: want to do. Are there things like from the campaign
- 39:58Speaker 3: strategic execution messaging playbook, you look at that, you say,
- 40:03Speaker 3: I wish we'd done that differently or not that it
- 40:06Speaker 3: would have been decisive, but that like, now that you've
- 40:08Speaker 3: seen how it played out, that makes you sort of
- 40:10Speaker 3: question maybe how you've thought about politics or how we
- 40:12Speaker 3: should do things differently going forward.
- 40:14Speaker 4: Well, I think, um, You know, it always sounds defensive
- 40:18Speaker 4: to start here, but I do want to start here,
- 40:20Speaker 4: which is because, you know, I've thought a lot about this.
- 40:22Speaker 4: I knew you have, like, could we have won the race?
- 40:26Speaker 4: And I don't think even if a bunch of decisions
- 40:28Speaker 4: had been done differently by Kamala, I'm not sure it could.
- 40:31Speaker 4: As close as it was, it was still a lot
- 40:32Speaker 4: of votes and the atmosphere was terrible for a Democratic nominee.
- 40:37Speaker 4: If Joe Biden had got out, not in 24, in 23,
- 40:38Speaker 4: and we'd had a full primary, I think whoever came
- 40:43Speaker 4: out of that race would still have been the underdog,
- 40:45Speaker 4: given the fact that on Election Day, 50 percent plus
- 40:49Speaker 4: in every battleground state gave Trump a positive approval in
- 40:52Speaker 4: the economy. And that's what mattered to voters. I'm not sure,
- 40:55Speaker 4: but they would have been fully formed. They would have,
- 40:58Speaker 4: I think, had an easier way of showing where they
- 41:00Speaker 4: would have disagreed with Biden. You know, as you know,
- 41:04Speaker 4: on presidential campaign, you know, you want to get your
- 41:06Speaker 4: biography fully in there and you've got your economic and
- 41:09Speaker 4: your health care and your contrast. No, and that was
- 41:11Speaker 4: all condensed. So I'm not sure, by the way, whether
- 41:14Speaker 4: it was Kamala or someone else who came out of
- 41:15Speaker 4: that primary, I still think you probably would have given
- 41:18Speaker 4: Trump the advantage, given all the atmosphere.
- 41:20Speaker 3: For sure. I 100% agree with that.
- 41:22Speaker 4: I think that's the thing that would have made a difference.
- 41:23Speaker 4: So I'm not sure there's anything decisive. I mean, I
- 41:25Speaker 4: look back, you know, after the first debate, which was
- 41:28Speaker 4: such a big moment for Harris, we said we want
- 41:31Speaker 4: to debate again. I think we should have said, we'll
- 41:33Speaker 4: see you in two weeks on Fox. He might still
- 41:36Speaker 4: not have debated, but we should have been more aggressive
- 41:39Speaker 4: about having another big moment or two. You know, she
- 41:43Speaker 4: worked at McDonald's, he didn't. He had the McDonald's Amendment,
- 41:45Speaker 4: we didn't. I certainly regret that. You know, I understand
- 41:48Speaker 4: we do live in that kind of world where interesting
- 41:51Speaker 4: moments and visuals, even if they're kind of substance-less, but
- 41:54Speaker 4: they can be symbolic matter. But the big thing for
- 41:57Speaker 4: me is we could have used another moment or two,
- 41:59Speaker 4: but I'm not sure at the end of the day,
- 42:01Speaker 4: just given the headwinds there. And I think, you know,
- 42:04Speaker 4: that's why when we spent time with voters, you know,
- 42:09Speaker 4: It's hard sometimes, I think, for Democrats to understand this. Like,
- 42:13Speaker 4: the threat of Trump's return is so real to us.
- 42:17Speaker 4: And voters were like, I'm not that really worried about him.
- 42:20Speaker 4: I mean, first of all, the economy was better when
- 42:22Speaker 4: he was president. All these Democrats are talking about democracy
- 42:26Speaker 4: as a threat, but we still have a democracy. And
- 42:29Speaker 4: you'd say, well, Trump, January 6th, and Trump, well, he left.
- 42:33Speaker 4: And I was a little surprised with those young voters.
- 42:36Speaker 4: They'd say, and you guys didn't even have a contest.
- 42:38Speaker 4: Like for me, it might've seemed that inside baseball that, okay,
- 42:40Speaker 4: Biden left Harris. They're like, fuck you guys. Don't lecture us.
- 42:45Speaker 4: So I think that there was just a bunch of
- 42:47Speaker 4: stuff even beyond inflation and concern. But yeah, I think
- 42:51Speaker 4: there's some things that I think that, you know, there
- 42:53Speaker 4: was a great team, you know, working on social media,
- 42:56Speaker 4: on TikTok, on YouTube and Instagram. But I think it's
- 42:58Speaker 4: fair to say that it just comes more naturally to Trump.
- 43:01Speaker 4: And I think that's by the way, Those are mediums,
- 43:05Speaker 4: not message, not messenger, to your point, not who the
- 43:07Speaker 4: candidate is. That's still more important than how you get
- 43:09Speaker 4: the message out. But I think we will be very
- 43:11Speaker 4: well served in 28 if our presidential nominee is someone
- 43:14Speaker 4: who wakes up every day and thinks about the campaign
- 43:16Speaker 4: through the prism of TikTok, Instagram yields, YouTube, maybe a
- 43:19Speaker 4: little Reddit. By the way, that's hardly anybody in our
- 43:22Speaker 4: party right now.
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- 46:07Speaker 3: I want to get to that for sure, because I
- 46:09Speaker 3: think this goes back to both the leadership question to
- 46:12Speaker 3: the House and Senate leadership question, because one of the
- 46:14Speaker 3: things you hear about them is, you hear one of
- 46:18Speaker 3: the criticisms you get of Jeffries and Schumer is that
- 46:21Speaker 3: they're not great communicators, right? That they're Not natural– they're
- 46:25Speaker 3: not– I think they can be fine at times, but
- 46:28Speaker 3: it's not– they are not– when you're listing the great
- 46:30Speaker 3: communicators in a party, you're never putting them on the list. Now,
- 46:33Speaker 3: I think this is indicative of the way politics has
- 46:35Speaker 3: changed because you worked for Dick Gephardt when he was
- 46:37Speaker 3: the House Minority Leader. I worked for Tom Dasch and
- 46:39Speaker 3: was a Senate Minority Leader. They're both, I would say,
- 46:41Speaker 3: with all due respect to them, fine communicators. Give a
- 46:44Speaker 3: good speech, fine, but not– if you're listing the best
- 46:47Speaker 3: communicators in the party at the time, they probably– they
- 46:49Speaker 3: weren't on top of the list. I guess politics has
- 46:52Speaker 3: become much more performance now, right? Like, when you think
- 46:54Speaker 3: about those, like, if you were picking a new leader,
- 46:57Speaker 3: would communicate, like, we'll get to President Buchanan in a sec,
- 47:00Speaker 3: but for a leader, like, would you think that their
- 47:02Speaker 3: ability to communicate is as important as their ability to
- 47:05Speaker 3: hold the caucus together or count votes or something like that?
- 47:07Speaker 3: Because Nancy Pelosi, greatest speaker of all time, that was, like,
- 47:11Speaker 3: she did not spend a lot of time communicating publicly.
- 47:13Speaker 3: She did most of her work behind the scenes, you know?
- 47:16Speaker 4: It's a great question. Yeah, the jobs changed. Now, I
- 47:18Speaker 4: think Daschle and Gephardt were both examples, though, Maybe they
- 47:21Speaker 4: weren't at the top of the list of great historical communicators,
- 47:24Speaker 4: but they were pretty good and they could go anywhere
- 47:27Speaker 4: and talk to anyone, right? I don't think that's the
- 47:29Speaker 4: case right now. I still think at the end of
- 47:32Speaker 4: the day, the most important thing is to be an
- 47:34Speaker 4: exquisite leader, to know where your votes are, to be
- 47:38Speaker 4: able to cut good deals or not good deals and
- 47:40Speaker 4: stand and fight. Pelosi, again, is the best example of this.
- 47:43Speaker 4: So I don't think you should choose a leader. I
- 47:46Speaker 4: wouldn't put communication skills at the top of the list
- 47:48Speaker 4: because it's become a lot more important, though. It just has.
- 47:52Speaker 4: And so even if it's not you, to think about
- 47:54Speaker 4: communications first, to think about, OK, how are we going
- 47:57Speaker 4: to get our message out? How do the people who
- 48:00Speaker 4: we need to persuade in the election, how are they
- 48:01Speaker 4: living their lives and are we reaching them? So yes, ideally,
- 48:05Speaker 4: we'd have leadership in Washington that was both skilled backroom negotiators,
- 48:10Speaker 4: took care of their members, had backbone of steel and
- 48:15Speaker 4: were good communicators. I don't think what will work is
- 48:18Speaker 4: like the Madison Cawthorn approach, which is you're just a
- 48:20Speaker 4: good communicator and you suck at the actual job, but
- 48:23Speaker 4: you have to pay more attention to that. And even
- 48:25Speaker 4: if it's not you as the prime communicator, you need
- 48:28Speaker 4: to think a lot about that. So it has changed
- 48:31Speaker 4: a lot. But at the end of the day, I
- 48:33Speaker 4: think it's less about the specific people than I think
- 48:37Speaker 4: just back to this question about should candidates call for
- 48:40Speaker 4: new leadership? I just think there's a hunger out there
- 48:41Speaker 4: for massive change. And it's 360 degree change. And I
- 48:46Speaker 4: think the candidates who embrace that will probably be the
- 48:48Speaker 4: most successful. But again, back to your question of, you know,
- 48:51Speaker 4: let's say the Democrats decide to have an agenda. Maybe
- 48:55Speaker 4: it's every issue. Maybe it's just a couple of issues.
- 48:58Speaker 4: You know, how are you going to communicate that? Who's
- 48:59Speaker 4: going to communicate that? How loud are you going to be? Like,
- 49:03Speaker 4: these are really important questions. So I think there's, as
- 49:05Speaker 4: you know, you've spent a lot more time thinking about
- 49:08Speaker 4: this than I have. Every week it gets harder to
- 49:11Speaker 4: reach audiences. So and I think that, you know, it
- 49:16Speaker 4: again starts with messenger and message. Without that, it's bullshit.
- 49:20Speaker 4: But if you're not delivering message and listen, it's hard. Listen,
- 49:23Speaker 4: you and I came up in politics where if you
- 49:25Speaker 4: had something to say about healthcare or the economy or
- 49:28Speaker 4: corruption or foreign policy, it'd be like, well, let's put
- 49:30Speaker 4: the policy together. And where are we going to give
- 49:31Speaker 4: a speech? And who are we going to give the
- 49:33Speaker 4: exclusive interview to? And what press conference? And what's crazy
- 49:36Speaker 4: is all that should be at the bottom of the pile.
- 49:38Speaker 4: Now it's like, What's my TikTok play? What's my reel?
- 49:43Speaker 4: You know, what's my visual representation of that? You know,
- 49:46Speaker 4: which influencers am I talking to? And that, for people
- 49:51Speaker 4: who've come up in a different era, that's like rewiring
- 49:54Speaker 4: of the brain. And I'm not sure most people can
- 49:56Speaker 4: do it. You know, and this is another reason why
- 49:59Speaker 4: we need younger candidates. Why do we need younger candidates? Well, one, politically,
- 50:03Speaker 4: I think would be helpful to us, but they also
- 50:05Speaker 4: understand how people are living their lives in terms of communication.
- 50:07Speaker 4: So from a political campaign angle, It's just going to
- 50:10Speaker 4: be much more native and much more genuine. And you're
- 50:13Speaker 4: going to wake up every day seeing the world through that.
- 50:15Speaker 4: I also think substantively, you know, if you're 80 years old,
- 50:18Speaker 4: it's almost impossible to know how a 22-year-old person is living,
- 50:22Speaker 4: wants to live what their dreams are. Like, and so
- 50:24Speaker 4: Rahm Emanuel's call, like, to have everybody, you know, can't
- 50:29Speaker 4: be served after 75, you know, to me makes a
- 50:32Speaker 4: lot of sense. You know, and I know there's exceptions
- 50:34Speaker 4: to that. Pelosi, you know, I mean. Yeah. she's 80, whatever,
- 50:39Speaker 4: and you know, no one can hang with her. So
- 50:41Speaker 4: I get that you would be losing some of that,
- 50:43Speaker 4: but I think generally that's right, both politically, but also substantively.
- 50:48Speaker 3: As you look at the communication thing is interesting because
- 50:53Speaker 3: I'm assuming that electability is going to be a huge
- 50:57Speaker 3: driving conversation in the 28 primary. Obviously, you know, everyone's
- 51:01Speaker 3: afraid to lose. They want, for good reason, right? The
- 51:04Speaker 3: stakes are so fucking high for the country, for the
- 51:06Speaker 3: world that, You want to get it right. Now, anyone
- 51:09Speaker 3: who thinks they have any idea what actually makes someone
- 51:12Speaker 3: electable in this day and age has no idea what
- 51:13Speaker 3: they're talking about.
- 51:14Speaker 4: Particularly as far out.
- 51:15Speaker 3: After everything that's happened. Yeah, we should have some humility, right?
- 51:18Speaker 3: I always say that the prototypical– when we came out
- 51:23Speaker 3: of the 2004 election, you go to any collection of
- 51:28Speaker 3: Democratic operatives or donor thing, I'm like, how do we–
- 51:30Speaker 3: we can't lose again. How do we win in 08?
- 51:32Speaker 3: We need a governor– or a senator from a red state.
- 51:38Speaker 3: I work for Evan Bayh. I work for a senator
- 51:39Speaker 3: from a red state. This blows people's minds now. We
- 51:44Speaker 3: tell them that Mark Warner, who has just recently been
- 51:46Speaker 3: elected governor of Virginia at the time, was the toast
- 51:49Speaker 3: of the town. He's who everyone was trying to get
- 51:52Speaker 3: in with. He decided not to run ultimately. We all
- 51:54Speaker 3: believe that. Everyone believed the conventional wisdom was white male
- 51:58Speaker 3: Democrat from a red state. We ended up nominating Barack
- 52:02Speaker 3: Hussein Obama from the south side of Chicago via Indonesia
- 52:05Speaker 3: and Hawaii. And then he wins the largest electoral landslide.
- 52:08Speaker 4: And the secret al-Qaeda.
- 52:09Speaker 3: It's going to change. But I think electability will be
- 52:13Speaker 3: top of mind. It's why Biden won the 2020 primary.
- 52:17Speaker 3: I think in that question of electability, it's not just
- 52:21Speaker 3: what state are you from? What is your bio? How
- 52:24Speaker 3: does it look on paper? It's can you actually communicate?
- 52:28Speaker 3: Can you go into all the hostile places and deliver
- 52:33Speaker 3: your message? Can you hang and have a cultural conversation
- 52:37Speaker 3: on podcasts that resonate with young voters? Do you have
- 52:42Speaker 3: a capacity to get your message out? Are you, to
- 52:44Speaker 3: your point, digitally native? Do you actually understand how the
- 52:48Speaker 3: medium works, which that does benefit you? That's a big
- 52:50Speaker 3: part of the conversation. As you look at this 28
- 52:53Speaker 3: field right now, I'm not asking you to pick a candidate.
- 52:55Speaker 3: Do you see candidates who have that capacity to actually
- 53:01Speaker 3: get the message out? Because even if they're not going
- 53:03Speaker 3: against Trump, it's still a media environment that tilts very far, right?
- 53:09Speaker 3: It's much easier for a Republican to get their message out.
- 53:11Speaker 3: By the time we get to 28, they're going to
- 53:12Speaker 3: control most of the major media outlets in this country,
- 53:15Speaker 3: several networks, ProTrump, Billionaire Discover, The Washington Post. And every
- 53:19Speaker 3: single social media platform, of consequence, will be owned by
- 53:21Speaker 3: a pro-Trump billionaire from Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok. So do
- 53:28Speaker 3: you see anyone out there who you think is showing
- 53:30Speaker 3: the chops to do that?
- 53:31Speaker 4: Well, first of all, yeah, the ecosystem is completely unbalanced.
- 53:36Speaker 4: And they just have command and control from television to
- 53:39Speaker 4: radio to blogs to, most importantly, social media that drive narrative.
- 53:44Speaker 4: We don't have that. Listen, I would, you know, Twitter, obviously, Musk's,
- 53:49Speaker 4: you know, that's a toxic wasteland. It's less a business
- 53:52Speaker 4: and more of an ideological mission. I still think, you know,
- 53:56Speaker 4: despite the foot playing that's happened, you know, whether it's
- 54:00Speaker 4: YouTube or TikTok or Instagram, those are businesses, right? And
- 54:03Speaker 4: I think Democrats can use them. I don't think there's
- 54:05Speaker 4: going to be a dial turning there to suppress us,
- 54:09Speaker 4: but we need to maximize it. So listen, this is
- 54:11Speaker 4: less about 28. And I just went before... we have
- 54:15Speaker 4: no idea what the democratic party primary voters are going
- 54:17Speaker 4: to be looking for in the first quarter of 28.
- 54:19Speaker 4: No idea. And we have even less of an idea
- 54:23Speaker 4: about what general election swing voters will be looking at
- 54:25Speaker 4: in the fall of 28. So I think you're right.
- 54:27Speaker 4: And that made me very different iterations of that political
- 54:30Speaker 4: lifetimes between now and then, you know, obviously Newsom, someone
- 54:33Speaker 4: I think who's shown real aggression around social media. I think,
- 54:36Speaker 4: you know, Steve, uh, you know, uh, Andy Beshear has
- 54:39Speaker 4: been all over podcasts, has his own, you know, uh,
- 54:43Speaker 4: You know, I think a lot of the governors are
- 54:44Speaker 4: leveraging the platforms in smart ways. I think everybody can
- 54:48Speaker 4: learn from Omdani in terms of how he's driving message,
- 54:51Speaker 4: not as a candidate, but now as a mayor. Like
- 54:54Speaker 4: Dan Lurie, the same thing. By the way, I don't
- 54:56Speaker 4: think this is good for our country. But if you're
- 54:58Speaker 4: an elected official now, particularly an executive, you know, it's
- 55:02Speaker 4: all day long storytelling. You just have to do that.
- 55:05Speaker 4: I don't think that's good, by the way. And I
- 55:07Speaker 4: think we should audition our presidents much differently than we
- 55:10Speaker 4: have and certainly will this time, which is who's the
- 55:11Speaker 4: best performer. But that's what we have. The biography is important.
- 55:16Speaker 4: Their ideas are important. The timing, do they fit the
- 55:18Speaker 4: timing is important. I don't want to say it's all
- 55:20Speaker 4: about performance, but that performance is really important, which is,
- 55:23Speaker 4: you know, having worked in the White House on the
- 55:26Speaker 4: really dark days and moments, how you perform is less
- 55:28Speaker 4: important than the decisions you make. We don't really audition
- 55:30Speaker 4: for that, sadly. But I think that, so I see
- 55:33Speaker 4: some Democrats and the good thing is, it seems like
- 55:36Speaker 4: a lot of people are experimenting, but we have to
- 55:38Speaker 4: get to the point where our standard bearer and most
- 55:40Speaker 4: of our candidates They just wake up every day in
- 55:42Speaker 4: the world they think about. How am I going to
- 55:44Speaker 4: drive a message? How am I going to make my
- 55:46Speaker 4: opponent pay for something? It's not about a speech. It's
- 55:49Speaker 4: not about an interview. It's about this multi-platform approach. And
- 55:53Speaker 4: as you know, they all need some distinction in how
- 55:56Speaker 4: you deal with them. And this is why I think
- 55:58Speaker 4: the most important people in campaigns going forward are going
- 56:02Speaker 4: to be 22, 23, 24, 25-year-old creators who understand these
- 56:06Speaker 4: platforms inside and out. And they should be given real
- 56:09Speaker 4: seats at the decision-making table, in my view.
- 56:12Speaker 3: As I look at this field, I can see– and
- 56:15Speaker 3: I like a lot of these people politically and personally.
- 56:17Speaker 4: Yeah, me too.
- 56:18Speaker 3: We've been around long enough. We know a bunch of
- 56:20Speaker 3: them now. They've a lot of them have been on
- 56:21Speaker 3: the show. I see lots of people who could win
- 56:25Speaker 3: in a good political environment in 2028. I really do
- 56:31Speaker 3: believe that's a nomination you're going to want to have
- 56:34Speaker 3: given Trump's unpopularity, the process by which they're going to
- 56:38Speaker 3: end up with J.D. Vance as their nominee who is
- 56:40Speaker 3: quite dangerous but also– I think has plenty of flaws
- 56:43Speaker 3: and is not wearing well with voters. Like there are these, um,
- 56:47Speaker 3: the Sarah Longwell put out some focus group results today,
- 56:49Speaker 3: which showed that, uh, the only thing that Gen Z
- 56:52Speaker 3: men wanted less than JD Vance was, uh, for the
- 56:56Speaker 3: United States to invade Greenland. Like he does not, he has, uh,
- 57:01Speaker 3: he has Trump's MAGA beliefs, uh, but not the charisma
- 57:05Speaker 3: that helps you. Um, but, you know, still it's going
- 57:09Speaker 3: to be a, it's a danger. But so I can
- 57:12Speaker 3: see lots of people who can win that race. What
- 57:14Speaker 3: I'm struggling with is to truly succeed, to actually defeat MAGA,
- 57:19Speaker 3: to not just hand the White House back and forth,
- 57:21Speaker 3: is you have to change the political alignment. You need
- 57:24Speaker 3: a transformative candidate. Now, the primaries tell us a lot.
- 57:27Speaker 3: The people you think are going to be great, like
- 57:29Speaker 3: on the Republican side, Ron DeSantis in this election and
- 57:32Speaker 3: Scott Walker 2012 can blow up In their face, we've
- 57:35Speaker 3: seen that on our side over the years. People who
- 57:37Speaker 3: look great on paper barely make it out of the
- 57:39Speaker 3: starting gates. It's hard to see. The candidate who can
- 57:44Speaker 3: truly achieve a lot of what you're talking about is
- 57:46Speaker 3: an outsider. There's not an obvious outsider in this mix.
- 57:51Speaker 3: If you go through the list of expected candidates, none
- 57:55Speaker 3: of these people have announced, but we all expect they'll run. Newsom, Pritzker, Whitmer, Shapiro, Beshear,
- 58:04Speaker 3: I'm sure I'm forgetting others, but Mark Kelly said he's
- 58:07Speaker 3: thinking of running now. These are all establishment– Gallego. These
- 58:11Speaker 3: are all establishment Democratic politicians. And I believe our strongest
- 58:18Speaker 3: candidate who truly would have a chance to reset the party,
- 58:22Speaker 3: reset the political alignment for a generation in this country,
- 58:25Speaker 3: who could do for the Democrats what Obama did for
- 58:27Speaker 3: the Democrats or what Trump has done for the Republicans–
- 58:30Speaker 3: has to be an outsider. Like, am I pining away
- 58:33Speaker 3: for something that can't happen here? What do you think?
- 58:36Speaker 4: Well, that's a great question, Dan. Are you thinking a
- 58:39Speaker 4: particular outsider or two, by the way?
- 58:42Speaker 3: No, I mean, look, I think, I mean, I don't
- 58:44Speaker 3: have a good answer to this, right? From the people,
- 58:46Speaker 3: I don't agree with this one per se, but a
- 58:47Speaker 3: lot of people on the right, on the center right
- 58:49Speaker 3: of the party, like they throw Mark Cuban's name out
- 58:51Speaker 3: there because he's, that's sort of like our Trump version,
- 58:54Speaker 3: only in the sense that he's a businessman who's very
- 58:56Speaker 3: good with the media and is a reality TV star.
- 59:00Speaker 3: You know, the other one you hear more from the
- 59:03Speaker 3: resistance left is would Jon Stewart run, right? So I
- 59:06Speaker 3: don't have a good answer for that. I mean, honestly,
- 59:08Speaker 3: I'm not arguing for this per se, but the politician
- 59:11Speaker 3: within our party who has the best biography to run
- 59:16Speaker 3: for president and the best communication skills is AOC, right?
- 59:20Speaker 3: She is an outsider, bartender, and she can communicate with
- 59:25Speaker 3: the best of them. I don't think she's like, I
- 59:26Speaker 3: have no indication she's actually thinking of running, but like,
- 59:28Speaker 3: if you were saying like, what is our version of
- 59:30Speaker 3: Obama was elected official, but he'd been elected official such
- 59:32Speaker 3: a short period of time that he wasn't defined by that.
- 59:35Speaker 3: You know, it's like, we just, I don't, I don't
- 59:36Speaker 3: see that person. So I'm like keeping my eyes open
- 59:40Speaker 3: for who that can be because people weren't talking about Obama. Actually,
- 59:44Speaker 3: people were talking a lot about Obama at this point
- 59:46Speaker 3: in 2006, you know, the relevant point in the cycle,
- 59:49Speaker 3: but they weren't seriously thinking he was not thinking he
- 59:51Speaker 3: was going to run. Like, who was like, is there
- 59:53Speaker 3: someone out there that we're not thinking of who could
- 59:55Speaker 3: get in the mix?
- 59:56Speaker 4: Well, So first of all, I mean, my hope is
- 59:59Speaker 4: that we have some of the Cubans and stewards run
- 1:00:02Speaker 4: in part because I hope this primary is big and
- 1:00:05Speaker 4: messy and tough and hard. Because I think if our
- 1:00:09Speaker 4: nominee has to survive the toughest obstacle course possible, that
- 1:00:14Speaker 4: person will be stronger. And it might even be someone
- 1:00:16Speaker 4: who you'd say on paper you don't think has the
- 1:00:18Speaker 4: kind of reach to really expand the electorate in our coalition.
- 1:00:23Speaker 4: Maybe if they survive that primary, you know, oftentimes the
- 1:00:26Speaker 4: people who win they don't just come out whole, they
- 1:00:28Speaker 4: come out strengthened by the primary.
- 1:00:30Speaker 3: I think Trump did.
- 1:00:31Speaker 4: Obama did, right? So I think, just by the way,
- 1:00:35Speaker 4: the flip side is people who look like tigers on paper,
- 1:00:37Speaker 4: like DeSantis, like John Glenn, like Walker, you know, they
- 1:00:40Speaker 4: get chewed up in their political graveyard. So it works
- 1:00:42Speaker 4: both ways. So I think we should have outsiders run.
- 1:00:47Speaker 4: You know, listen, I don't know what AOC is going
- 1:00:48Speaker 4: to do. And I understand the conventional wisdom would be, well,
- 1:00:52Speaker 4: you know, she would get demolished in a general election.
- 1:00:54Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that. I mean, Uh, she's
- 1:00:57Speaker 4: an outsider. And by the way, talent matters, talent, talent. Again,
- 1:01:02Speaker 4: back to like, I sound like super luxury old person.
- 1:01:05Speaker 4: Like I wish, I wish we elected presidents based on
- 1:01:07Speaker 4: their talent to run the situation room and like work
- 1:01:09Speaker 4: with Congress, but we don't. So the ability to communicate, inspire, reach, um,
- 1:01:16Speaker 4: handle crisis, um, in your campaign is so important. She's
- 1:01:19Speaker 4: clearly got that. Um, I would say, you know, based
- 1:01:23Speaker 4: on prior election history, and by the way, that doesn't
- 1:01:25Speaker 4: mean anything in a presidential election necessarily, but like, you know,
- 1:01:28Speaker 4: Bashir has overperformed a lot. Shapiro's overperformed. All those Michigan
- 1:01:33Speaker 4: candidates have overperformed. Gallego overperformed. So there's some people in
- 1:01:38Speaker 4: those races, in those states who showed the ability to
- 1:01:41Speaker 4: outperform the sort of democratic average. That doesn't mean that
- 1:01:45Speaker 4: translates to a general election because I think in a
- 1:01:48Speaker 4: general election, yeah, profile background matters, But it's really that talent.
- 1:01:53Speaker 4: I mean, you know, you've looked a lot at this.
- 1:01:56Speaker 4: You can't overstate it enough. These elections are decided by
- 1:02:00Speaker 4: people who pay little to no attention to politics. They
- 1:02:03Speaker 4: don't seek out information. You got to find them. And
- 1:02:06Speaker 4: the way you find them is through compelling moments and
- 1:02:09Speaker 4: genuine moments. Some of them plan, most of them not.
- 1:02:12Speaker 4: And so that's what we need in our nominee is someone, yes,
- 1:02:15Speaker 4: who can obviously secure the nomination. build confidence in the party,
- 1:02:20Speaker 4: build a great organization, have the financial resources, but has
- 1:02:23Speaker 4: that athletic ability to capture people's attention whose attention doesn't
- 1:02:27Speaker 4: want to be captured. And the primary in part is
- 1:02:31Speaker 4: for that. And so you're right on paper, I don't
- 1:02:33Speaker 4: think we've got a bunch of people. The other thing, Dan,
- 1:02:34Speaker 4: is I'd be surprised, you and I are political veterans,
- 1:02:38Speaker 4: that there won't be two or three people that run
- 1:02:39Speaker 4: that you and I would not name right now. And
- 1:02:42Speaker 4: I hope that's true. I hope that's true. I agree
- 1:02:45Speaker 4: very much with you.
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- 1:04:11Speaker 3: So talent, electability, communications dictate who wins the primary. The
- 1:04:15Speaker 3: other thing that dictates the primary is the calendar. Right now,
- 1:04:19Speaker 3: in our minds, it has always been thus. We would
- 1:04:22Speaker 3: go Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina. That would be it.
- 1:04:26Speaker 3: That's how we've done it. There is currently no calendar.
- 1:04:30Speaker 3: For the first time ever, there was nothing to operate.
- 1:04:33Speaker 3: Biden changed it to South Carolina first, then didn't have
- 1:04:35Speaker 3: a primary. Do you have a view on what the
- 1:04:37Speaker 3: calendar should be?
- 1:04:40Speaker 4: I have some thoughts about the principles. Now, I think
- 1:04:45Speaker 4: there's been 12 states, right, that have basically submitted an application.
- 1:04:51Speaker 4: So you should ignore the other 38. It is these
- 1:04:54Speaker 4: 12 that will make up the early states. So my
- 1:04:56Speaker 4: principles are the past shouldn't matter. History shouldn't matter. Relationships
- 1:05:01Speaker 4: shouldn't matter. Given the existential nature of what's in front
- 1:05:03Speaker 4: of us, we should have a calendar that we think
- 1:05:06Speaker 4: gives us the best opportunity to produce the strongest nominee
- 1:05:08Speaker 4: to win the presidency. So that would mean to me,
- 1:05:11Speaker 4: I would make sure that the first four are all
- 1:05:13Speaker 4: battleground states. You and I know the value. Why do
- 1:05:17Speaker 4: I want to do that? You get exposure in those states.
- 1:05:20Speaker 4: You build up an organization in those states. But also
- 1:05:23Speaker 4: the nominee gets comfortable in those states. So other than
- 1:05:26Speaker 4: if Kamala Harris runs, none of these candidates know much
- 1:05:30Speaker 4: about these states. By the way, how much better of
- 1:05:33Speaker 4: a general election candidate was Barack Obama having spent all
- 1:05:35Speaker 4: that time in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada? He knew
- 1:05:38Speaker 4: the people, he knew the reporters, he knew the media markets,
- 1:05:41Speaker 4: like he knew the economy. So with all due respect to,
- 1:05:44Speaker 4: you know, you and I have deep love for Iowa
- 1:05:48Speaker 4: and for South Carolina, I would not have a non-battleground state.
- 1:05:52Speaker 4: And the good thing is you've got, you know, Georgia
- 1:05:54Speaker 4: and North Carolina both want to be battleground early. So
- 1:05:57Speaker 4: does Arizona and Nevada. So does Michigan. Northeast, our home state, Delaware,
- 1:06:01Speaker 4: actually demographically would be a great place to start actually.
- 1:06:05Speaker 4: But I think New Hampshire probably- is the other one
- 1:06:07Speaker 4: in that region. And I would probably start relatively small
- 1:06:10Speaker 4: to big so that you give candidates the opportunity to
- 1:06:13Speaker 4: compete in a state that's not overwhelming in size or expense.
- 1:06:16Speaker 4: I also think you should give a lot of thought
- 1:06:18Speaker 4: to what comes after the first four, because it may
- 1:06:21Speaker 4: be we have a political athlete who emerges, who wipes
- 1:06:24Speaker 4: the floor with everybody like Trump did back in 16,
- 1:06:27Speaker 4: and they're going to be the nominee after the first four.
- 1:06:29Speaker 4: And in a way, the calendar wouldn't matter there other
- 1:06:31Speaker 4: than it helps you for the general election. So I
- 1:06:33Speaker 4: think the calendar choice should be, how does it help
- 1:06:35Speaker 4: you win the general election? How do you put together
- 1:06:37Speaker 4: a good test for the candidates? But then what comes
- 1:06:40Speaker 4: right after is important. Like I would make sure New
- 1:06:42Speaker 4: York's relatively early if you can do that. Like why
- 1:06:45Speaker 4: New York? New York's a tough place to compete and
- 1:06:47Speaker 4: you want to put people through their paces. You know, Texas,
- 1:06:50Speaker 4: some of these places that we want to reach. So,
- 1:06:52Speaker 4: but the most important thing for the DNC Rules Committee
- 1:06:54Speaker 4: is these first four. So for me, as hard as
- 1:06:57Speaker 4: it is sometimes, we should not worry at all what's
- 1:07:00Speaker 4: happened before, who's done what, who has relationships, what is
- 1:07:05Speaker 4: the most ruthlessly, uh, non-emotional surgical thing we can do.
- 1:07:10Speaker 4: And the other thing about it is it's not a
- 1:07:12Speaker 4: one-way door. If we want to change it in 32,
- 1:07:15Speaker 4: we change it in 32 because the roster of battleground
- 1:07:19Speaker 4: states almost certainly will change as it always historically has done.
- 1:07:23Speaker 4: So I would go all battleground states early. Um, they're
- 1:07:26Speaker 4: already going to make sure there's geographic diversity. Um, but
- 1:07:30Speaker 4: you know, uh, those are all states.
- 1:07:31Speaker 3: And ethnic diversity.
- 1:07:32Speaker 4: Um, so, um, That's my view of it. And, you know, again,
- 1:07:39Speaker 4: somebody who just has momentum, who kind of overwhelms the field,
- 1:07:42Speaker 4: they'll win regardless of the calendar. But if we have,
- 1:07:45Speaker 4: you know, if we ever, the other thing I'd say
- 1:07:47Speaker 4: is South Carolina historically, other than in 24, when we
- 1:07:50Speaker 4: didn't have a contest, has been the gateway to the nomination.
- 1:07:54Speaker 4: And other than I think 04, when Edwards won, because
- 1:07:58Speaker 4: he was kind of, you know, North Carolina guy.
- 1:08:00Speaker 3: Local, yeah.
- 1:08:01Speaker 4: And why is that? Because once you come out of
- 1:08:03Speaker 4: the early states, You know, the candidate who wins the
- 1:08:06Speaker 4: plurality of the African-American vote is going to be our nominee.
- 1:08:10Speaker 4: So I still think having a southern state as that
- 1:08:12Speaker 4: last one into the rest of the nomination process is important. Now,
- 1:08:18Speaker 4: in my view, it would be Georgia or North Carolina.
- 1:08:22Speaker 4: But we'll see. I mean, I think that that's important.
- 1:08:25Speaker 4: So that to me is another rule of principle. But
- 1:08:27Speaker 4: to me, the inviolate thing is you just got to
- 1:08:29Speaker 4: put blinders on. Don't worry about what's happened. You know,
- 1:08:33Speaker 4: New Hampshire's always had this, South Carolina, like what's the
- 1:08:36Speaker 4: right thing to do to produce the strongest Democratic nominee
- 1:08:39Speaker 4: to advantage that person so we have the best chance
- 1:08:42Speaker 4: not just to win the presidency in 28, as important
- 1:08:44Speaker 4: as that is, but to do it with some margin
- 1:08:47Speaker 4: so we begin to build this electoral coalition that can
- 1:08:51Speaker 4: be sustainable and ultimately extinguish the MAGA threat.
- 1:08:55Speaker 3: Yeah, that to me, I 100% agree. The best idea
- 1:08:58Speaker 3: I'd ever heard was, from Kevin Sheehy, Bloomberg Sky, which
- 1:09:02Speaker 3: was you would just take the four closest states from
- 1:09:05Speaker 3: the previous election and do them in the, you know,
- 1:09:07Speaker 3: so in this case, it would be Wisconsin and Michigan, Pennsylvania, right?
- 1:09:11Speaker 4: Right.
- 1:09:12Speaker 3: Arizona, whatever it is.
- 1:09:13Speaker 4: That violates the geographic thing, but that's a fine idea, right?
- 1:09:16Speaker 3: Yeah. But the basic principle here is organizing in the
- 1:09:22Speaker 3: primary will help you in the general. And because of
- 1:09:25Speaker 3: changes in the electoral college map since 2012, Iowa and
- 1:09:29Speaker 3: South Carolina are not battleground states anymore. And so they
- 1:09:32Speaker 3: should be. We should be able to get to a
- 1:09:33Speaker 3: place where we can compete in either of them. But
- 1:09:35Speaker 3: I remember... being, you know, obviously I spent a lot
- 1:09:39Speaker 3: of time in Iowa in 2008. We had, you know,
- 1:09:41Speaker 3: the best organizers in the Democratic Party were in Iowa
- 1:09:44Speaker 3: organizing that state with an inch of its life, right?
- 1:09:47Speaker 3: Every voter, every community, you know, we knew who they were.
- 1:09:50Speaker 3: You could get it. I was there in 2020, you know,
- 1:09:55Speaker 3: doing podcasts and covering the caucuses. And then when I
- 1:09:59Speaker 3: flew out the next morning, a bunch of those organizers
- 1:10:01Speaker 3: were on my flight to go to the next state
- 1:10:02Speaker 3: and they were never going to return. They were going
- 1:10:05Speaker 3: to close those offices and they were going to leave.
- 1:10:06Speaker 3: And so to spend all Millions of dollars and all
- 1:10:09Speaker 3: this time and money and energy to organize a state
- 1:10:12Speaker 3: that you never return to seems like just a waste
- 1:10:15Speaker 3: of resources. So getting in those battleground states makes a
- 1:10:18Speaker 3: ton of sense to me.
- 1:10:19Speaker 4: Yeah. And again, I think the voters, whoever is our nominee,
- 1:10:23Speaker 4: will have competed in those states, spent a lot of
- 1:10:25Speaker 4: time doing social media interviews, running ads. So you get
- 1:10:28Speaker 4: a head start on your definition. But also, I'll just
- 1:10:32Speaker 4: repeat this candidate thing. even though our presidential campaigns have
- 1:10:36Speaker 4: become more national, even though we have an electoral college,
- 1:10:39Speaker 4: your comfort and skill and understanding of these places that
- 1:10:43Speaker 4: will determine the presidency are important. And if you've spent
- 1:10:45Speaker 4: a bunch of time in there, you know, you're a
- 1:10:48Speaker 4: governor or senator or an outsider, you know, in your state,
- 1:10:51Speaker 4: you don't know these states. But if you've spent a
- 1:10:54Speaker 4: lot of time campaigning there, you'll be a better candidate.
- 1:10:58Speaker 4: And so that's another, I think, principle in terms of
- 1:11:00Speaker 4: why it ought to just be battleground states. first four.
- 1:11:03Speaker 4: And again, that doesn't have to be something that's a generation.
- 1:11:07Speaker 4: We can change it if we need to as battleground
- 1:11:09Speaker 4: states change.
- 1:11:10Speaker 3: The last thing I want to get to is in
- 1:11:12Speaker 3: your op-ed, one of the things you brought up was
- 1:11:15Speaker 3: the Democrats need to talk about AI. The day is
- 1:11:17Speaker 3: a huge issue. We need a position on AI. You
- 1:11:19Speaker 3: had ChachiBT write a political ad about AI that was
- 1:11:24Speaker 3: actually quite good. I tried to get another AI tool
- 1:11:28Speaker 3: to do the actual visuals of the ad, not so good.
- 1:11:30Speaker 3: So maybe the writers of political ads are in grave danger.
- 1:11:34Speaker 3: Maybe the actual cinematographers are okay for the short term.
- 1:11:37Speaker 4: Maybe another cycle anyway. Yeah.
- 1:11:39Speaker 3: Yeah. At least maybe– I mean, these things are moving
- 1:11:42Speaker 3: so fast. You might be able to keep your job
- 1:11:43Speaker 3: through 26, 28, you might be fucked. But AI is
- 1:11:47Speaker 3: the most important technological, economic, cultural, psychological, social issue of
- 1:11:53Speaker 3: our time. my view is in the party has been
- 1:11:55Speaker 3: bizarrely quiet on it with some exceptions. Uh, Republicans have
- 1:11:59Speaker 3: actually been much more vocal and been, been Republican conference,
- 1:12:03Speaker 3: particularly been more vocal critics of Trump's, uh, the Trump's
- 1:12:07Speaker 3: David Sachs, let him cook policy of no regulation. But
- 1:12:12Speaker 3: to the extent we have, you know, the extent that
- 1:12:15Speaker 3: the Democrats are, but it's mostly people who are doing
- 1:12:17Speaker 3: like bands on data centers. Um, Where do you think
- 1:12:20Speaker 3: the party comes down on here? Do you have a
- 1:12:21Speaker 3: view of what that messaging or policy position should be?
- 1:12:25Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I just find it bizarre because
- 1:12:28Speaker 4: I would even say, yeah, David Sachs and the Trump administration.
- 1:12:31Speaker 4: But generally, we're not having a debate about the thing
- 1:12:33Speaker 4: that's going to have the biggest impact on the country
- 1:12:35Speaker 4: for decades. Like it's insanity. And I think voters express that.
- 1:12:39Speaker 4: They're like, this seems like it's just happening to us.
- 1:12:42Speaker 4: By the way, they feel like social media happened to them.
- 1:12:44Speaker 4: They didn't have any say in it. Now, this is
- 1:12:46Speaker 4: even bigger and it's happened to them. So listen, AI
- 1:12:48Speaker 4: is here. Everyone's using it. There's a lot of benefits
- 1:12:51Speaker 4: in terms of health care, hopefully, and education, all sorts
- 1:12:53Speaker 4: of things. So it's not a pro-AI, anti-AI. I just
- 1:12:57Speaker 4: think given that the Trump administration, a lot of Republicans,
- 1:13:00Speaker 4: it's basically a green flag, no questions asked. And by
- 1:13:04Speaker 4: the way, you know, Elon Musk, who's probably the most
- 1:13:07Speaker 4: prominent outside Republican now, is out there saying there will
- 1:13:10Speaker 4: be no jobs. Working will be optional. Everyone can plant
- 1:13:14Speaker 4: flowers and what a great life that will be. People
- 1:13:16Speaker 4: are like, fuck you. It's not realistic. So I think
- 1:13:21Speaker 4: that we're Democrats should say, listen, we need to be China.
- 1:13:24Speaker 4: We want to be the leader. We've always benefited from
- 1:13:28Speaker 4: leading technological revolutions and change. We want to do that here.
- 1:13:31Speaker 4: We just want to have the right kind of rules
- 1:13:33Speaker 4: and transparency and the right kind of discussions about what
- 1:13:35Speaker 4: kind of economic transition. How do we have to think
- 1:13:38Speaker 4: about changing our education system so people aren't spending hundreds
- 1:13:41Speaker 4: of thousand dollars for degrees that are unemployable Like, so
- 1:13:44Speaker 4: I just think we need to lift our voice now.
- 1:13:47Speaker 4: It doesn't have to be against AI. It needs to be,
- 1:13:50Speaker 4: we need to have the right discussion about regulation, around transparency,
- 1:13:53Speaker 4: about the adjustments we need to make, but also make
- 1:13:56Speaker 4: the Republicans pay a price for asking none of those questions.
- 1:14:00Speaker 4: Because I think voters, you know, I see this in research.
- 1:14:04Speaker 4: I'm sure you see this in research. You know, they're
- 1:14:07Speaker 4: getting more and more concerned at a time, by the way,
- 1:14:09Speaker 4: where they're already economically worried. So they think things are
- 1:14:13Speaker 4: going poorly, and now they got this weighing over them.
- 1:14:16Speaker 4: You see with a lot of parents of school-aged kids,
- 1:14:19Speaker 4: they're worried their kids aren't learning, that they're not going
- 1:14:22Speaker 4: to learn deeply, that they're too reliant on AI. We
- 1:14:24Speaker 4: have the mental health crisis. So I think for us,
- 1:14:27Speaker 4: I think candidates should lean into it and say, if
- 1:14:29Speaker 4: I'm elected, I'm going to put a lot of thought
- 1:14:31Speaker 4: to how we handle this, not in a way that
- 1:14:33Speaker 4: hurts us competitively, still allows us to flourish, but this
- 1:14:39Speaker 4: could kill lots of jobs. This is changing education. By
- 1:14:43Speaker 4: the way, this is changing how people deal. We already have, what,
- 1:14:46Speaker 4: half of men under 30 have never asked a woman
- 1:14:49Speaker 4: on a date. More and more of them are going
- 1:14:50Speaker 4: to have relationships with chatbots. Like, this is big stuff.
- 1:14:54Speaker 4: So to me, there's an opening for leadership that's very
- 1:14:57Speaker 4: much connected to the economy you want to build. And
- 1:14:59Speaker 4: I think, you know, I'm not saying it's going to
- 1:15:01Speaker 4: be the leading issue in 26. I think it will
- 1:15:03Speaker 4: be an issue. I think by 28, it could be
- 1:15:05Speaker 4: the dominant issue of one of them. And this is
- 1:15:07Speaker 4: a place where J.D. Vance in particular is deeply exposed.
- 1:15:11Speaker 4: and I think could really pay a price by 28
- 1:15:13Speaker 4: if people's sense is this has happened way too fast.
- 1:15:18Speaker 4: No one's asking the right questions. I see the devastation
- 1:15:21Speaker 4: all around me. Nobody's thinking about me and my family
- 1:15:23Speaker 4: and my kids. And if we have Democrats at least
- 1:15:25Speaker 4: raising some of those questions, hopefully they have a lot
- 1:15:27Speaker 4: of good answers, but at least willing to raise some
- 1:15:29Speaker 4: of those questions, I think we will politically profit from it.
- 1:15:33Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really, it's quite challenging because it's very different
- 1:15:37Speaker 3: than when social media was starting, when Obama was running, right?
- 1:15:42Speaker 3: Where like those companies were viewed quite positively by the
- 1:15:46Speaker 3: public as something different, like for all the skeptics that
- 1:15:48Speaker 3: they had of Wall Street or big oil or big
- 1:15:50Speaker 3: pharma or big tobacco or all the bigs, right? There
- 1:15:53Speaker 3: was a sense that these companies run by these new
- 1:15:57Speaker 3: younger people were something different or better. And so Obama
- 1:16:01Speaker 3: benefited a lot from being seen as the tech candidate, right?
- 1:16:06Speaker 3: That's not the same now, right? It's a much more
- 1:16:09Speaker 3: complicated relationship. Tech is just, in a lot of voters' views,
- 1:16:13Speaker 3: just like a segment of business that they're quite skeptical
- 1:16:16Speaker 3: of and think is fucking them over. But you also
- 1:16:19Speaker 3: don't want to be– like I think our best candidate
- 1:16:23Speaker 3: is going to seem like they understand the future.
- 1:16:28Speaker 4: Yes.
- 1:16:28Speaker 3: And we have lost some of that like in the
- 1:16:31Speaker 3: post-Obama years as Democrats.
- 1:16:33Speaker 2: No question.
- 1:16:33Speaker 3: And so how do you sort of navigate that between
- 1:16:38Speaker 3: the anti-tech view, but also being seen like you understand
- 1:16:41Speaker 3: the benefits, but you're also very aware and willing to
- 1:16:44Speaker 3: stand up to these companies to protect people from them,
- 1:16:46Speaker 3: I guess, is the sort of territory we're trying to
- 1:16:48Speaker 3: scope out.
- 1:16:48Speaker 4: You've got to lean into the benefits, both in terms
- 1:16:50Speaker 4: of AI and robotics, right? If no one dies in
- 1:16:52Speaker 4: car crashes anymore, that'd be like the biggest public health
- 1:16:56Speaker 4: benefit in the history of our country, right? Robotics can
- 1:16:59Speaker 4: probably play a role around senior care and things. So
- 1:17:03Speaker 4: I think, yes, positives. But let's think about this. I mean,
- 1:17:06Speaker 4: the dominant debate when you listen to, you know, Altman
- 1:17:10Speaker 4: and Musk and even like people like Sachs is, well,
- 1:17:14Speaker 4: don't worry if all the wealth goes to the big companies.
- 1:17:17Speaker 4: They don't even dispute it. They'll give it back. So
- 1:17:21Speaker 4: I'm a Democratic candidate, I would say in a room.
- 1:17:23Speaker 4: Does anybody believe? Also, by the way, they're like the
- 1:17:27Speaker 4: meritocracy party. You know, Americans are about hard work and drive.
- 1:17:31Speaker 4: Because what they're saying is you won't have to work anymore.
- 1:17:34Speaker 4: The truth is some Americans don't want to work. A
- 1:17:36Speaker 4: lot of people want to work. They get a lot
- 1:17:37Speaker 4: of value and dignity out of it. It really fills
- 1:17:40Speaker 4: them up. And so I think they're really vulnerable here.
- 1:17:44Speaker 4: And part of it is just putting the words back.
- 1:17:46Speaker 4: Does anybody believe that all the wealth from AI should
- 1:17:48Speaker 4: go to five people? People say no. Well, the people
- 1:17:51Speaker 4: who are in charge now are saying that basically, yeah,
- 1:17:54Speaker 4: it may all go to them. But don't worry. They're
- 1:17:57Speaker 4: going to give it back in a dividend form. And
- 1:18:00Speaker 4: you'll all get your piece and everything will be okay.
- 1:18:01Speaker 4: Like it's ridiculous. And so I think there's a big
- 1:18:05Speaker 4: opening there. I think the skill to your point will
- 1:18:08Speaker 4: be to not seem like you're a troglodyte, that you
- 1:18:12Speaker 4: have your head focused on the future. You want to
- 1:18:15Speaker 4: make sure that the benefits of this are widely shared
- 1:18:18Speaker 4: and like healthcare is a great example of that. But,
- 1:18:21Speaker 4: you know, we need to be careful about this in
- 1:18:22Speaker 4: terms of what adjustments we have to make and also
- 1:18:25Speaker 4: call bullshit on some of this economic model stuff that
- 1:18:27Speaker 4: just does not withstand any scrutiny at all.
- 1:18:32Speaker 3: And then also you're going to need like what is
- 1:18:35Speaker 3: truly unsustainable is to be let AI do whatever it
- 1:18:39Speaker 3: wants but also we're going to eliminate all of our
- 1:18:42Speaker 3: green energy so that we're just like burning the planet.
- 1:18:45Speaker 3: You have to like you need to comprehend like I
- 1:18:47Speaker 3: know this seems hard in this media environment but you
- 1:18:49Speaker 3: need to comprehend strategy with nuance to actually do it.
- 1:18:52Speaker 3: I think people like from the research I've seen, people
- 1:18:55Speaker 3: are both hopeful and skeptical and you got to kind
- 1:18:57Speaker 3: of be able to fit right in that category. Like
- 1:18:59Speaker 3: they have, they're very concerned about impacts on their energy
- 1:19:02Speaker 3: bill for sure. Impacts on their community from these giant
- 1:19:06Speaker 3: data centers being built, but also, you know, you know,
- 1:19:09Speaker 3: see some benefits in some way, shape or form that
- 1:19:11Speaker 3: can make their life easier. So like we needed, we
- 1:19:14Speaker 3: need an actual policy. And if we are, if the
- 1:19:17Speaker 3: Republicans have no policy, I think they're where the Republican
- 1:19:19Speaker 3: governors have been better than us is they've been very
- 1:19:22Speaker 3: critical of and focused on the effect on kids. Yes.
- 1:19:26Speaker 4: Right.
- 1:19:27Speaker 3: And we've just said, not that we're not focused on,
- 1:19:28Speaker 3: we're just silent about it. Like we, Like we're just–
- 1:19:30Speaker 3: the party just seems to not have a lot to say.
- 1:19:32Speaker 3: But maybe– there are lots of individual candidates saying individual things,
- 1:19:35Speaker 3: but it's just not being heard by people because we
- 1:19:37Speaker 3: don't have the– it's not the most important people in
- 1:19:39Speaker 3: the party doing it. We don't have presidential candidates doing it.
- 1:19:41Speaker 3: We don't have the megaphone to get it out. But
- 1:19:43Speaker 3: it feels– I think it feels to a lot of
- 1:19:45Speaker 3: voters and you see this show up is that we
- 1:19:46Speaker 3: don't have anything to say about it and that's a problem.
- 1:19:48Speaker 4: I agree. We've got to fill that gap in a
- 1:19:50Speaker 4: smart way.
- 1:19:52Speaker 3: All right, David Plouffe, I will let you go. This
- 1:19:54Speaker 3: has been fun and illuminating and alarming, as always. Good
- 1:19:57Speaker 3: to talk to you.
- 1:19:58Speaker 4: That's how our discussions always go, Pfeiffer.
- 1:20:01Speaker 3: Always have for almost 20 years now.
- 1:20:03Speaker 4: See you.
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