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Transcript

Sony Open - PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all system's going clear, you lift up. What's up everyone?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tambo and welcome to
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: a new PGA season, maybe a new show for some
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: out there. I'm with my man Alex blikel as always.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I'll bring him in here in a minute. But we're
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be breaking down everything from a single entry GPP perspective.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: If you watched us during NFL, we appreciate the support
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: and you're coming back, make sure to tap that thumbs up,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel on the way, and we'll be
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: back here every wede at ten thirty am Eastern. Different
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: weeks obviously we'll give you a heads up if it's
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: something's going on or a major week could be different
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: if it's in some different time zone whatever that is,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: but mostly Wednesdays at ten thirty am Eastern, and we're
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be breaking down all things single entry like we
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: talked about, but course fit whether we're gonna have a
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: betting segment at the end. We will of course go
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: down the lane and find our leverage lane and what
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: we're doing in single entry for the week. But instead
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: of the tier by tier, we're gonna kind of break
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the tears out by like Mega chalk, secondary chalk, the
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: value chalk. We're talking mostly about, as we always say,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: we're gonna teach you how to play, not who to play.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: And with Alex here, you know, spoiler alert for those
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: that don't know, pretty damn good golfer in his own right,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: and he can bring a lot of that knowledge over
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: as well. With the course fit. I'm thinking about how
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the industry might be thinking and then how we can
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: think about it differently. So I think you're gonna like
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: this show. If you do, let us know put it
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: in the comments below. Alex excited to be back for
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: PGA the debut edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: ship at Nation YouTube station. What's going on? My friend?
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is gonna be really fun show. And we
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: talked about it a little bit even when we were
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: on the NFL show. Like, the pgadfs has grown exponentially
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: over the last few years, which has been awesome for
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: us because we loved pgadfs before it was cool, right
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: we were in those original pgadf s streets. I think
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: it's probably the most fun sweat in all of dfs,
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: and it's one of those things where like The entertainment
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: value to work ratio is spectacular in golf because you
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: get four days of sweat, you have three days of
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: preparation a week instead of you know, NFL, you're doing
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: work for six days in a row just.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: To get one day of the sweat.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: PGA is a really really fun unique beast in that
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: in that regard, So we're gonna have a blast on
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: the show. And I also love the fact that we're
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: gonna do a little bit more props and pick them
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: as well with this one.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah you betch it. I know you got a ton
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: of stuff going on there. We'll talk about that in
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Get the marketing out of the way fast,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: but just funny enough. You said that we always sticked
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: like you and I talk offline. We prepped for this stuff.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: We care so much, exaid we were doing this forever
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and I'm excited we can do this show. But from
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: the edge youtainment perspective, I always tease it it's kind
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: of funny, but there's actually like three sweats in PGA dfs.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: It's like the did anybody late wd? Okay, I'm good
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: on that. Save nice. They all made their tea times.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Then there's the cut sweat on Friday typically and then
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: you got hopefully some six of sixes or if you're
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: playing single entry, hopefully you got something that's gonna be
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: in play five or six some weeks six or six
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: and others where your chair for the six of six.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: But if if you get it through, now you got
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: something to think about on Sunday. So yeah, it's definitely
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: a fun sport. And like Alex said, if you've played NFLDFS,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: so you played other sports. The nice thing about this
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: one is it's really good crossover. It's a different game.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna try and help teach you. But
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: the main thing is it's like you can prep on
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Monday night, pricings out, you know, Tuesday night you can
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: work on it. Wednesday night, you can finalize Thursday morning.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: You might have been able to tinker away if you want,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: and then you're good to roll. But you don't have
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: to be away from your family grinding it out doing
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: different stuff. I mean, someone said they rearranged their court
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: schedule to be here today. You know, in here, so
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: interesting enough, you guys, I appreciate you, but just want
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: to note that if you don't know, just want to
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: mention this quickly off topics, so we'll get the marketing
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: out fast. But you can sign up for as little
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: as two ninety nine over at Ship Nation without the optimizer.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: But the best deal is three forty nine. That ends today.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: That is the last day to get in on the
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Early Bird. We've had it out for a couple of
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: weeks now and yesterday we partnered with Rick run Good
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  Speaker 1: for his tools and being able to add those on.
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  Speaker 1: So if the best deal is the Early Bird bundle
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  Speaker 1: gets you all of our content, the Stone Boots on
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  Speaker 1: the ground, everything that we cover over at Ship and Nation,
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  Speaker 1: the Rick run Good tools and the Sabersim Optimizer all
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: for five forty nine. Just going back to you here, Alex,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I know you'll talk a ton about your stuff throughout
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: the show that we got going on, But the big
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: thing you've got going right now is your discord. If
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: you want to take a minute now just to go
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: through it. I know we'll hit on it in the
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: betting segment later on as well, Betting breakdown we'll call it.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So all the props and pick himself over in
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: my discord that will include outright bets.
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: Its can include a lot of underdog plays.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: Obviously, the NBA season's going on as well right now,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: and we've been doing really well in those streets. And
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: then I think, you know, the thing that I'm most
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: excited to talk about in my discord as the PGA
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: season goes on with in terms of DFS, is just
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: really understanding how contest sims have affected the landscape and
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: how even though maybe like individual player ownership projections are
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: maybe a touch more unpredictable now because of contest sims,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: there are things about the way people are playing that
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: now actually making our competition a lot more predictable. And
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: so there are really cool ways to leverage that. We'll
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: talk a lot about that on Leverage Lane and then
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: really get more in depth over in my discord wherever
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: I can.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: And that's been a lot of fun.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: And then yeah, over at FTN Fantasy as well, the
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: best ownership projections in the game, and we have our
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: GPP scores that build on that. GPP scores basically take
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: all the relevant information of a slate for a player
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: combined into one metric that basically tells you if the players.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Under owned or over on and those have been really helpful,
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: and those.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Were actually created specifically for PGA, and they were so
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: successful in the pgadfs that we built for the other sports,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: but they are really kind of created for and had.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: The most success in PGA.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: So very excited for the season, Very excited to talk
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: through every single slate with you on the show.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned this is a go collect our man says,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: PGADF has such a fun sweat. I'll never forget anti
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: sweating Marikala at the Masters. Any Bogie's on eighteen. Bogie's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: eighteen on Sunday to move up, Move me up. The
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: first Thank you, Mary flower So and that's a shout
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: up to the late great DJN seventy five. I know
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: we'll we'll definitely shut him out here a bunch on
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: this show and try and do as much as we
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: can to keep his legacy going. We've got the stone
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: over at Chippin Nation. We get all that stuff. But
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: if you guys want to see the Ship a Nation
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: launch show, just go on this channel and watch it.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: All Right, let's get to the Sony Open. Let's talk
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: first about course fit and weather, and I think the
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: big thing is there's definitely weather to talk about this week.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: People are gonna want this week two week, so we
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: can bring it up and go through that. But also
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: one thing we talked about yesterday and sort of planning
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: for the season and making sure we had this thing
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: completely dialed in. It will be an ever changing landscape
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: as we go down the lane. It's not narrative street,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: it's leverage lane. We're gonna try and go that route.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: But just to say, you know, sometimes the industry as
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: a whole, especially when NFL is still going on or
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the week before or after a major. I always called
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: them quote unquote lazy weeks. It just means like everyone
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: kind of says this is how it's going to be
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: and just almost decides that. We'll talk more on that
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: later with you know, single entry players. I'm a single
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: entry player. Like you know, there are you or is
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: there something else that you can do? And you talked
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: during the NFL season some good ways to do it,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: but maybe some way, some ways that you'll know with
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: your golf background and if you want to tell people
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: some of that stuff. You know, the course fit thoughts
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: could sort of deviate from the rest of the industry,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: and sometimes that can be your lane, that can be
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: your edge alone. And then It's not about who you play,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: it's how you play them, as I always like to say,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: and that's part of it. So how where do you
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: want to start with the course, fit, weather, and just
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of your background in the in the
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: actual golf world to be able to bring that to
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the table here as well. I think that's important.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I guess I'll start with my background. Out
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: of college, I turned professional in golf and made a
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: run at the PGA Tour. Never got close to the
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: PGA Tour. I did play one corn Fair Tour event.
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: I've gotten to US Open Sectionals five times now, so
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: a decent player. I think the misconception that I get
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: all the time is people assume that because I and
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: the player that I am, that I have this like
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: inside knowledge or that I can, you know, watch a
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: guy on TV and say, oh, I can tell that
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: he's dialed in, he's going to play really well tomorrow.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: It doesn't really work like that.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Instead, what my playing background has helped me do is
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: approach my PGA data analysis just from a more informed
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: standpoint and perspective, and so like one of I think
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: the best example I can give of that is over
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: at FTN. We have changed strokes gain off the tee
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: into strokes gain driving distance and strokes gain driving accuracy.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: And of course we know like how good a player
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: is off the tee can be broken down into these
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: two components. I have yet to see anyone else in
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: the industry try to do it this way though, where
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: you actually have the two strokes gain components, and it's
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: made a world of difference. And one of the areas
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: where it's made the most difference is in our course
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: fit model. Because what we're trying to do with the
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: course of it model is look at pass success at
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: a golf course everyone in the field, not just two
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: is one, but literally how everyone in the field every
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: single year has done and say, okay, what skill sets
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: are translating into success at this course. So it's not
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: it's not like, oh, when players have won here, they
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: gained a ton of strokes putting, because if you can't
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: predict who's going to gain a ton of strokes putting,
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: that doesn't help you at all. So what we're trying
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: to do is find the skill sets that translate into
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: success and being able to determine whether off the tea
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: is really important because it's your accuracy off the tea
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: that matters, or your distance off the tea that matters.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Has really been crucial to our success. And I'm really
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: excited to be able to talk through the course.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: Of model each week here with you as well.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you bet. Do you want to start with the
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: weather this week and just sort of you know what
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: we have? I know you've got it up. I think,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: ready to go, and then we can go into that
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: for the Sony Open. I will see and yeah again,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: shout up to our man DJEN Alex Blickel hashtag not
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: a poor He's got Windy dot Com and he's gonna
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: break it all down to to be able to go through.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And what do you got here, my friend?
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: I think it's like three dollars a month, so it's
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: really not.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Some people don't got that kind of money, man. Just
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to be grateful, Alex.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Windy dot Com though, is what I use for win.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: It's what DJN used for WIN. I think it's fantastic.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: And one of the things that's awesome is like most
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: weeks you can literally just search the golf course, so
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: I think you might even be able to see like, yeah,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: here's Port Royal there's Silverno Country, Cup of Jackson. Like,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: that's just what I've looked up in the past. Is
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: literally how I use my subscription.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: That could have been very bad joon search histories. Now,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Windy probably not.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: Gonna fly dot com.
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: I think we're safe there.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: And the other thing is like.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: This week, you can't search the course except you can
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: literally go to the island, zoom in find the golf course.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: And now once you click here when you bring up
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: a uh, let's see where did it actually go? Nope,
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: let me let me refresh this because we usually get
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: a bar down here that shows everything and that the
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: only problem with Wendy is they give so much information
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: sometimes you can't find all the information you're actually looking for.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I got to teach them something about less is more
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: the model man, we talk about it all the time.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: It's like that's it's almost too much sometimes. But you know,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: once you get good at it and understand it, there
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: is a way that you can kind of, you know,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to get better about what it is. I don't know,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: it was there and then it just went away at
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the bottom. I saw it.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that was really strange. It was as soon as
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: I hit the search button shouldn't have done that.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe when you go back to the search location and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: click it again, it'll pull it back to.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: A good idea.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, there it is, And then you know, we
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: can we can show everybody how we found it. It's
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: over on the right hand side, and I want to say,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: it's like, oh, there it is.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: We got it.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Baby.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: There's a club that you can see, like now it
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: is grabbing the weather from literally on the golf course.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: And so when we go to this one hour breakdown,
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: we can go over to Thursday and now we're seeing
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: the projected winds. You can see how much stronger it's
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: supposed to be in the afternoon on Thursday than this
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: early morning. But then on Friday it's pretty equal throughout
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: the day. So this can obviously change, and I would
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: imagine that the weather forecasts aren't quite as strong, you know,
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: over in Hawaii as they are when you can actually
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: like just search the place, because it means that there
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: are more and more you know, weather stations, things of
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: the nature. But as of right now, it does seem
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: like there might be an advantage to getting the best
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: playing conditions probably of the entire week. Like you we
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: can see the winds going to still be up on
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday, so potentially a best scoring conditions of
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: the week early Thursday morning. So maybe you want to
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: just stack that wave and hope that you get off
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: to a great start and just kind of roll from there.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah. One thing I want to note, and this is
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: again I know it's just a little thing, but not
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: everybody looked at this stuff. I'm always trying to bring
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the DFS perspective side of it. There is only seven
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: players eight thousand dollars or above that start in the PM,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: so you know, I think ownership and we'll get to
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: that shortly. Anyway, I know at this point it's already
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: trending for that direction. So again, don't let that scare
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you off. We're gonna every week we're gonna be talking
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: about how it applies to the slate. The goal of
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: this show too, just so you guys know, is to
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: make it more evergreen. Well, it's gonna be slate specific.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: That makes it really good where if you get to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: an event later in the season, again, it doesn't have
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: to be the same course, but it's like, man, I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: remember there was an episode almost like a season of
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: a series or something like, I remember there was an
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: episode where they talked about this or I forget what
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: they said about no cut events, but what was it
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: was the first no cut of end of this year.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I remember it. I want to go back to that
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: episode and see what they said for the information side
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: of it, and you could just go back and find
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: it and be able to catch up on that stuff. Again.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: That's the type of stuff that keeps you sharp. So
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: we'll try and bring up points that are applicable to
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: where we're at. But I'm just saying some of this
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: stuff will matter and for this week that is interesting.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: A lot of the already options above eight the options
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: above eight k story are already in the morning. There's
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: only seven options that are not of probably what twenty
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: five give or take. So pretty wild.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I will say there on that note too,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: is like it honestly matters less for the best players
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: in the field because they don't they don't need the
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: weather help the way a lot of the cheaper guys do,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: and conversely, like they're less likely to get if let's
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: say it's a half stroke or a full stroke tougher
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: to be in the Thursday afternoon, Friday am wave than
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: the Thursday AM Friday PM wave. That's less likely to
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: hurt the guys up top, it's less likely to make
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: them miss the cut. That could mean that a guy
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: who's playing pretty well for his usual game, you know,
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: down at seventy two hundred dollars or whatever, that could
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: be the difference between making and missing the cut. So
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: it definitely matters more for the cheap guys. And so
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: it's it doesn't really bother me that most of the
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: better players are in the good wave because I care
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: more about it for the value guys. And that actually
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: means that, you know, there might be fewer value guys
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: in the early wave, so that could end up being
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: a really good advantage that way.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I want to ask this one because I think it's
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: kind of funny. It's you know, pop culture relevancy everything.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: But like over the weekend there was huge viral pieces
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: of Tom Brady breaking down how to throw a football
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: in the wind, and you talk about golf obviously subjective,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: like there's no like, well, if it's eighteen point five
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: miles per hour, what happens at eighteen point five is
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the seventeenth dimple on the ball from the left side
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: starting with the T on the title list does this,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: It's not like that. So it's like, what type of
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: conversation should really be had or do you think is
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: there any misconceptions? What is your thoughts around something like
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Ryan is asking here with you know, actually considering it
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and thinking about it, And then is there anything different
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: from the DFS perspective side of like yeah, well it's
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: like just the difference of let's try and get more
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: six to six is really versus complicating things.
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: So I love the way he phraised this because it
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: gets a really key point, which is it's the wind
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: does not have a li effect in the sense that
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: like the difference between a ten mile an hour wind
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: and a fifteen mile per hour wind is less important
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: than the difference between fifteen and twenty, which is less
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: important than twenty and twenty five. The higher you get,
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: the more important the wind becomes. And that is true
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: like increasingly so as you get up. And for anyone
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: who saw what Brady was saying is basically he was
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: talking about like the tilt of the football. If the
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: nose is tilted up, the wind gets underneath and it
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: shoots the ball up. Well, the same can be said
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: about the way a golf ball is spinning. The more
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: backspin is on the ball, the more the wind is
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: going to just shoot the ball up when you're into
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: the wind. And so there's also like a difficulty where
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: if you're into the wind, you want less spin so
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: that the wind affects it less. If you're hitting into
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: a crosswind, you want more spin because that backspin, just
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: like you know, the rotation of a bike tire is
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: going to help it hold its line. The faster it's spinning,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: the less the wind is going to push the ball sideways.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: So there's this really interesting dichotomy there where you're trying
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: to decrease spin in one instance, increase spin in another,
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: but you also have to keep the ball down so
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: that the wind doesn't affect it. You know, the longer
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: it's in the air, obviously, the more the wind is
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: going to knock it offline. And so the whole point
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: here is that playing in wind is an entirely different
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: skill set than playing in calm conditions, and so ordinarily
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: with golf, like we really have to be cognizant of
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: the sample size that we're using, and more often than not,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: slashing the sample size to try and get a more
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: relevant sample is actually wrong in golf when you just
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: want like as much of a sample size as you
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: possibly can. I think wind is one of the few
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: expect one of the few exceptions, because it really is
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: this different skill and you have to be able to
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: increase spin when you need to and decrease spin when
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: you need to, and you need to be able to
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: shape the ball into a left to right wind and
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: also into a right to left wind to keep your
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: dispersion down. So yeah, really really like interesting fun discussion
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: we get to have right up to that here because
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: we have really potentially windy conditions here in Hawaii. And
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: the other thing I'd say is, whenever you have a
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: course on the coast like this, you can always almost
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: like just add five miles per hour to the forecast
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: because in fact, like here, I can zoom out and
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: you'll see what I mean, the the these like little
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: lines that you see here, Templell Can you see those?
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Well, I don't know if.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: It's if you go in a little bit more. I
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: don't know if they'll be there if you zoom in
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: is the only problem, but I can see what you're
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: talking about.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, you can see that they're slower on the
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: land than they are off land. And so whenever you
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: have this instance of you know, you're playing on the coast,
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: you can end up getting like drastically different winds on
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: the golf course than what you're seeing in forecasts. And
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: that would especially be true if the wind were coming
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: from the opposite direction and the land hadn't already slowed
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: it down to some degree.
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: So if we get a wind.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Shift, so let's see Thursday it's there, so it doesn't
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: look like we're going to get a wind shift. But
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: that's like to me, that's one of the most overlooked
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: aspects of wind. Is a lot of the time everyone
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: only talks about the wind speed and not the wind direction,
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: and a lot of the time it's like from Thursday
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: morning to Thursday afternoon, you might get a one hundred
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: and eighty degree turn, and one of those directions is
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: likely to be a lot more difficult than the other.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: We saw that a lot last year. I think we
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: saw it at the Scottish Open in like a massive,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: massive way where it was like a stroke of half difference,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: especially on the back nine, and we were able to
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: just totally clean up on Underdog that day because Underdog
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: had no idea that wind shift was coming, or they
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: didn't realize that it was going to change the difficulty
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: of a hole and one of the easier holes on
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: the course became one of the toughest holes on the course.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: We just had overs on on a one hole score
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: and they all hit. So Yeah, that kind of thing
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: can be super, super advantageous.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: If you know what to look for.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing I want to have is a main
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: takeaway from it. Though that you said is perfect. I've
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: said this forever. I know, we just did the partnership
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: with Rick yesterday. You talked about looking at granular stats
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: and stuff like that. Like I've always said this forever
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: of people looking at like the just the twenty four
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: months or so, just the last twenty four weeks or whatever.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Like you know, I'm just looking at a little bit
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: of a a section here, and it's like, if you
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: can play in the wind, we want like the longer
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: if you have a long sample playing well in the wind,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and then you consider the strength of field, and we're
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about that's a good segue. You'll getting into
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: the Sony Open here and we'll get to the chalk
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: build and all of this is like, okay, is there
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: separation in this field? Like it plays way harder where
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: that's where like a Scotty over four days crushes people
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: versus if it's a birdie fest. That's why people say, oh,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: it can be more variance in that because it's like
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Scotty's skill set doesn't really apply as much. Everyone can
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: go on to make nine birdies a day if they
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: if they play well enough, and that could be up
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: in the mix and outscoring, et cetera. But when you
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: have that long sample that could get you to a
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: unique play within your build, it's not just about the play.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: It's like now, it's like I'm considerable. Someone said they've
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: been bad. Their recent form is bad. First of all,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: they didn't even play that much in the in the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: fall swing. Second of all, if we're looking at something
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: different here to recognize why we might putting them into
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the lineup or the build and think about it from
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: that perspective, and it doesn't always catch up. Like you said,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: with props, pick'ems no differ. In NFL, you'll see it
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: sometimes where they don't adjust enough for O line or
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: D line or something like that where it's out like, man,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: that's actually a pretty big deal now and the team
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: can shut down and lock in on this and you
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: don't see it change. So sometimes when you find those things,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: you want to use them to your advantage. And I
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: know you and I talk pre show. This will get
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: into going in to start talking about the chalk here,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: but only twenty minutes in. We're gonna be fine. I'll
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: say this, you know, last season right now today, and
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about these guys in a minute. The
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Russell Henley, JJ Spawn, Corey Connors. I get it, they're
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: gonna outproject It's golf medium projection, so on and so forth.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: It's not NBA. But just noting that if last season
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: this exact time, imagine we did the show last year,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: you just rewind a year. He said. Man, can't wait
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: to see the big year that Russell Henley, Corey Connors
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: and JJ Spahn are gonna have. We'll be talking about
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: them in twenty twenty six as the top dogs. Probably
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: not something anybody said, maybe a couple here and there.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: They have their guys and like them, you know, everyone
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: has their golfers. But what I'm why I'm saying all
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: that you and I talked a little pre show on
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: this is like, that's kind of the difference on a
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: week like this. This is not a field where we
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: have like, they're not Scottie Scheffler in this field, Like
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: there's definitely there's something and they're going to be projections outliers,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: and this matters for your single entries or for how
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: you're thinking about stuff, and especially matter when it comes
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: to my leverage lane later. But I'll tell you this,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: it's they're not necessarily those outliers. And if you just
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: took a step back for two seconds and said three
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: weeks from now, a month from now, could we be
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: saying like, Wow, surprise, Mari Kawa came out so hot,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: or when Decky gets hot, that's crazy, it happens, he
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: hasn't withdraw, he's more healthy, et cetera. Like what is
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: the difference, and talk to me a little bit about that,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: and then you want to add there.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So this is a perfect segue into the Course
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Fit Model for this week. And for those who haven't
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: heard me talk about Course Fit Model in the past,
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: you and I have done some shows together, so I
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: know a lot of people listening already have so apologies
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: if you have to hear this feel for the second
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: or third, or fourth or fifth time, as I know
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: many probably have. But what we do with our CURSORP
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: model is we're looking at strokes gain, driving distance, driving accuracy,
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: approach around the green, and putting, and again we're trying
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: to figure out how these skills translate to success with
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: the course. And so what the model spits out is
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: a percentage for each skill. So for example, this week,
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: we have a negative thirty percent weight on putting. So
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: what this means is you take any skill difference between
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: two players. So let's look at for example, U, let's
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: go Henley and Colin Morikawa. So for our estimates, we
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: have Henley gaining point one four strokes per round over
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: this field putting and Morikawa losing point two toy one.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: So there's a point three five stroke difference in skill
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: between Henley and Morikawa. What the negative thirty percent putting
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: weight means is that that point three to five skill
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: difference is going to translate to only seventy percent of
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: that here. So I'm not going to do that math
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: off the top of my head, but maybe like a
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: point two five difference instead of point three to five.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: So when we look at the whole course fit model
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: for this week, we actually have five negative weights. We've
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: got negative fifty six percent on driving distance, negative thirteen
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: percent of both driving accuracy and approach play, negative twelve
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: percent on around the green play, and then that negative
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: thirty percent weight on putting. So now the next question
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: we have to get to is, Okay, why is this?
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: Why are all of the skills at this golf course
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: translating into less of an advantage than usual? And I
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: think it's actually less about the golf course and more
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: about the time of year this event is played, because
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: what we're doing here is we start by, you know,
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: formulating a strokes gain profile for each player. Who is
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: this guy? How good is he at each skill? And
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: the truth is that estimate is a lot better in
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: July and August, when we have a large sample from
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: the season we have a large recent sample from each
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: player than it is after this extended break for all
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: these guys. So I think what this model is actually
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: telling us is accuracy off the tee, approach play, around
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: the green play all are important, and certainly they're more
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: important the distance and putting here, But the reason why
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: we're getting these negative weights is because we also have
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: to recognize this week that we should be less confident
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: than we usually are in who is the best player,
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: who is the second best player? How you know, how
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: good is this guy? Are we going to see the
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: best version of this player from the last two years
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: or the worst version, or obviously more likely somewhere in between.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: So I think like one of the big advantages this
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: week is just kind of looking at players who either
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: we're the best version of themselves that we've seen in
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: the last three months that they've played, and then say, Okay,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: maybe we shouldn't be quite as confident as we usually
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: are in this guy or as we were six months
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: ago in this guy, and then also find the guys
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: who are really struggling but have a two to three
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: extended year sample of actually being really good players.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: So I think that's a large part.
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: Of the advantage this week is just recognizing how much
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: harder it is in this first week to pinpoint how
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: good each player is and what we should expect from everybody.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, different than NFL. It's not like we have a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: preseason to go off of or any like real coach
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: speak or any and you barely get anything out of
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: these players. So like it's a lot of like if
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: you ask any golfer how you feel, and typically they're
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: gonna say pretty good, or they're gonna say the opposite,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: and then people take that as you know, oh, they
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: must not be feeling good. They said this little bit
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: of their swings off and then they go and play
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: good A We're like, oh, I must have found it,
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: and it's like it's complete opposite. So I like that
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: call out. I definitely think, you know, that's gonna be
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: the premise of this show going forward, like what we
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: do and how we set it up. The next segment
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: is gonna be talking about the Chalk build and what
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: that looks like. A lot of the things we're gonna
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: talk about when we go to these sort of tiers
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about, and we're gonna start with what
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: we're calling the Mega Chalk, which is gonna be like
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Henley Connor's spawn that's kind of the main three and
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: maybe some others that you can chime in throughout, but
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: not gonna hit on this, I think for every single golfer,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: every single option, but realistically it's like it is there
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: viable pivots, different roster constructions that we can go with
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: are the deserving of the ownership based on the course
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: fit and the weather and the things that we just
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: talked about, and then whether or not we kind of
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: want to solely go with those pivots, you know, or
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: we can look at some sort of combinational stuff. And
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: I know you did a good job of that with NFL.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: People loved it. So talk to me a little bit
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: about this mega chalk group and how you want to
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: apply some of that stuff to the conversation.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so you kind of already touched on it. But
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: it looks like Henley, Spawn and Corey Connor's are being
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: viewed here as like Scottie Scheffler lights almost where I'm
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: seeing forty percent for Russell Henley in single entries, forty
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: percent for JJ Spawn and single entries, potentially thirty five
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: percent for Corey Connor's in single entries, and just a
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: huge gap before the next guy, Like after that, you
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: get Ben Griffin at twenty five percent in single entries,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: So a real large drop off after these three. And
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: while our projections agree Russell Henley is the best player
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: in this field by almost of a stroke, around, and
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: then JJ spawn is second or sorry, JJ spawn is
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: third only to Ben Griffin, and those three are kind
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: of well ahead of everybody else. So like, it's understandable
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: that Henley and Spawn are this popular, but I don't
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: think they should be anywhere near this popular. Where to me,
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: like the fair ownership would be, I don't know, twenty
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: five percent on each, and then you get between fifteen
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: and twenty on a lot of the guys around them,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: like Marikawa and Hideki and Bobby Mack and Si Wu
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: and Keegan and McNeely, these guys, But instead we're seeing
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: forty forty twenty five fifteen fifteen, and so the gap
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: to me just is too large. So I will definitely
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: be pivoting at the top or even not playing anyone
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: all the way at the top, which I think we
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: might talk about a little bit more late.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: We're definitely be talking about that, and I think that's
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: important to know. One of the other things too, for
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: people again, because we were trying to talk from all angles. Obviously,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: some people here play pjadfs every year and have a
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: really good feel on this stuff, but we got to
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: talk to everyone and want people to enjoy this game
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: as much as we all do. And one of the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: things is like JJ spawn and Corey Connors fit every build. Yes, Rus,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: because I'm playing JJ spam and I'm gonna start with him. Okay,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the other people are doing that too. It's like or
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: they eat second into a lot of a lot, Like
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be with one of those guys. Oh, but
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going bang Griffin. All right, you're eight percent less
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: than Headley or whatever the number ends up being. So
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: it's like you're not really building different. Oh but I'm
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: getting different down low. Again, it's not who you play,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: it's how you play. All can be true, it could
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: all work out. I'm just saying you are right away
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: sort of parking yourself. I always use the I was
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: talking about, like if there's one hundred people in a
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: room and you got to get out, only one person
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: can win. It's like when you park your the further
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: you go with the chalk build. If you're not playing cash,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: we're talking about single entry from a GPP perspective, with
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: the two hundred dollars single entry, I'm playing this week
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: to win twenty care or fifty whatever it is for
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: first this week. My point being, I'm when you do that,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: you're parking yourself at the back of the room. You're
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: just starting behind everyone, and you're like, oh, but those
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: guys are gonna race me ahead, and then the others
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: are gonna get different. It's possible if you find something
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: that you like and it works, sure, but you've got
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: to be cognizant of all of those factors where you
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: can kind of start in the middle. They can have,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: you know, the JJ spawn right out and get a
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: little bit done for you and Corey Connors get a
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: little bit done. Let's say you're not on those two,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: but then you got two others that match or beat them,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: and then your other four or your natural build is
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: already different. It's like bye, bye, I'm going and if
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you don't, you go to the back. But you'd rather
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: be at the front or the back. We're not trying
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: to play for the middle, So go ahead if you
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: want to add to that.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: So, the way I like to think about it is,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: we basically have two reasons why we should ever fade chalk.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: The first being that fading the chalk is actually advantageous
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: in its own right, because we might leverage a large
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: portion of the field if that chalk fails, and so
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: that type of chalk is you know, we're trying to
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: leverage very fragile chalk. When we're looking at that kind
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: of point of view, I don't view either of the
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: of these guys as that they're both very likely to succeed.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: We have them at eighty six percent and ninety percent
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: respect that's Spawn and Henley to make the cut. We've
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: got Connors at let's say seventy nine percent to make
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: the cut. So it's it's not a likely outcome that
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: we're gaining a big advantage on the field because these
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: chalky players failed. Instead, my reason for potentially fading these
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: guys is the second reason to ever fade Chalk, which
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: is using him takes one of your slots that could
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: instead go to a potential separator. And we only get
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: six roster spots in PGA, So you know, I think
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: that is one of the clear differences between PGA and
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: NFLDFS is you only get six spots, and that means
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: at maximum, you have six possible chances to really help
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: you separate, and every single chalk piece that you use
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: is one fewer opportunity to separate. And this week we
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: have some really good, very talented, you know, equally good
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: in my mind players around these guys who are low
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: owned and potential separators. I'd rather go with the separator
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: than the really chalky guy, who I don't think is
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: anywhere near as much better than these other guys as
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: what the field is seemingly suggesting with this ownership.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll just add a quick one. Now it's not
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: my lane and we're not even at this point, but
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: because we're on the mega chok and just give one
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: quick example. But like this is a prime spot where
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: you look at Corey Connors, and first of all, like
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the key Kimona always say, you can play both of
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: these guys. That could be a way to get where
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: most people are gonna choose to pivot off Corey Connors
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: if they are to go to somebody else or just
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: go with him. I'll just use a quick one. But
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: got her up is one hundred dollars cheaper. He's not
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: gonna project as good. His make the cut is not
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: that much further behind. And again it's not about the play,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: it's just about breaking down the concept for you. We
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: just watched him hit these stingers and talk about being
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: able to hit. Those like that could play well in
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: the wind. He's going out the exact same time as
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Corey Connors, and you could play him instead of or
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: you could play him with and that can be a
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: pure separator play where at the end of the week
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: they could both make the cut and you're like the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Corey Connor's chuck gut, they're finished twenty second or twenty four,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: like good week for him, not the best, but good
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: enough for that price tag, but got her up sitting
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: top three, challenging to in the event on Sunday where
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: there may be lineups that didn't need both, just had
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: had got her up instead for one hundred bucks less.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: And that's the pivot where you're like, oh, stupid, Corey
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Connor's got me. It's like you know, and you look
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: at the difference in ownership. It could be twenty five
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: percent in single entry between those two as a delta,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: and again, projection won't get you there. This is where
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to think about this stuff in your
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: build and add it that way. But just making a
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: little note like that, so all right, do you want
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: what else do you want to talk about? Like the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: only other thing was gonna add like those two fit
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: every build. Henley fits every build that pick your poison.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: When we get to the secondary chalk or the value check,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: like whatever you like in the value range, A lot
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: of people just like to click that and then go
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: up to the top right, I can get one of
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Henley or Griffin or Spawn whatever you do, two of them,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: all these factors. So it's like, I don't know if
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: you have more to add on that, but I think
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: that's the other thing that people need to recognize. It's
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: not always just because of their past play or last season.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: It's also a lot of the roster construction that starts
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: to naturally happen when you start with these plays that
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: you like down low and then just build up from
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: there vice versa.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the only thing I'll add is, like,
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: if we're trying to identify what the chalk builds is
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: going to look like here, I think most lineups are
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: going to include.
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: At least two of these guys.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe not most, but a lot of lineups are going
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: to include at least two of these guys. And then
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: you're getting into the secondary chalk. After that, you're getting
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: Rye and Pandreth and Writing and Grillow and Michael Kim,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Ryan Gerard. So we'll kind of go through all these
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: chalk guys. But it's a very interesting slate the way
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: the pricing is set here, because they're like they're clear
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: tiers of these guys right, and by tiers, I mean
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: price ranges. So you have Henley and Spawn up top,
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: and you could almost say they're in two different tiers,
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: just like Connor's is in a different tier than those
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: guys price range wise. So then maybe Connors goes with Rye,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Henley goes with Spawn, and then you have Pendrith and
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Writing right next to each other in price at seventy
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: six hundred each. You have Grillow, Kim, and Gerard all
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: seventy three or seventy four hundred dollars, and then you
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: get you know, the next tier down like potentially Keanaya
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: and McGreevy at sixty nine hundred they might be chalky.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: So you have like this very clear section and people
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: might just go down the list and they say, Okay,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: this is my favorite from that top tier, this is
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: my favorite from that second tier. Here are my favorite
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: from the third tier, and build that way. And so
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: you have to either find a way to get different
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: within those tiers, which is maybe harder to do, or
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: you say, okay, I'm just gonna have a different structure
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: where I'm gonna grab four from this you know, mid tier,
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: skip the top, skip the next one. That's kind of
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: getting to the idea of you know, it's not who
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: you play, it's how you play them, which you talk
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: about so well, and I have talked about on Paths
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: Show for years as well. So I think that's a
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: familiar concept to people now, and it's one that is
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: like front and center here in this first week.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also because you know this week too. I
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: think from the value perspective, that's what matters, because that's
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: what sort of closes it out. Like you could get
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: to a you know, if you go Henley spawn and
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: drop down, or you know, Henley Connors and go down
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: there spawn Connors and go a little bit more balanced,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: then you get your rise and whatever. But I think
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: people will not necessarily go six oh as much as
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: people think, because when you look at the values and meaning,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: like six guys from the morning if they are playing
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: a weather angle, because you have Girard who's super high
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: value but is a PM am T time, and I
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: think people will ignore that. You know, McGreevy sixty nine hundar.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: By the way, you could just build a lineup this
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: week with Max McGreevy, Matt McCarty, mac Meisner, mav McNeely,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: like you name it. There's the double m's. If there
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: was a million maker this week, I would think about
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: making the double M milli maker lineup. But there's not,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: so you know, shut up the DK to ruin it
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: on the first week, you know, put poor them, but
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: just go with it. There is like Burger at seventy
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: five hundred, a little bit like I'm just looking at
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: some of these value plays that people are rolling to
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: so that at least is someone intriguing when it comes
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: to the value plays like let's use you know, writing
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: or Kim Girard those guys. What's your takeaways on players
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: like that? And I know we talked like some of
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: the original stuff about like whether they're deserving of the
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: ownership versus like so many guys around them that will
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: have like little to know ownership. There's a ton of
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: really good players in this field. How do you sort
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: of view that? And then if you want to apply
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: it to that kind of group you can as well,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: and we can still talk some pivots and stuff up
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: in the top range also with like Henley and whatnot.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: I think there's some stuff there. Yeah.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: So, as I kind of talked about like the two
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: reasons to fade Chalk, when I'm playing Chalk, it means
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: that that guy is like very clearly the best play
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: in in that range. And also there isn't like a
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: severely under owned play in that range that I could
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: use instead. And so when I look through this slate,
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: I don't see myself using much Chalk at all.
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: And well, I'll use Aaron Rye as as the example here.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: I think PGA is really really awesome from a data perspective.
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: And this is how this is why the GPP scores
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: were created like for PGA, and why they were so
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: successful from the get go is because we have these
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: like very clear definitions of success and failure for a
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: PGA player if we look at top five odds versus
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: miscut odds for anyone in this field. Let's take Aaron
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: Rye for example. For context, we have Aaron Rye projected
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: as the best player under eighty six hundred dollars. So
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: under Corey Connors. He has our highest expected strokes gained
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: at point seventy nine. He has our highest top five odds,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: he has our highest made cut odds.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: But what are those actual numbers?
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: Ten and a half percent chance of a top five,
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: twenty one point one percent chance of a miscut, so
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: literally twice as likely to fail as he is to
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: really give you that, like majorly successful is going to
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: help you take down a tournament type performance. So when
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: that type of player is twenty four percent owned, as
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: we have him projected in single entry, to me, that's
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: just too high. And it's it's not that people are
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: overrating him, it's just that the PGADFS field hasn't quite
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: caught on to how volatile these players are. And so
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: basically every single week I think the highest on players
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: outside of maybe Scotty when he really is like that
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: much more likely to succeed than anybody else. The highest
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: owned players are almost universally over owned, and you can't
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: have a handful of guys who are automatically over owned
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: without having a handful of guys who are then automatically
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: under owned.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: And so I.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Definitely play more contrarian lineups across the board in PGA
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: than I do in any other sports, where like in
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: NFL DFS, I will very very rarely not have at
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: least let's say two guys twenty five percent are above.
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: In PGADFS, I've had really really successful weeks in the
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: past where my highestone player was eight percent. I'm always
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: more willing to just be contrairing off the board in PGADFS.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: And again that's because we only have to get six bucks, right,
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: easier to hit on six concharion spots than it is
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: to hit on nine concharion spots.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: Obviously that's the case.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: So yeah, just one of the one of the cool
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: ways that PJA DFS is different. And in to answer
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: your question, it makes me a lot less likely to
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: play pendrith Right and bry not necessarily because I think
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: that they aren't very good players in their price range,
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: but because fading them just gives me an opportunity to
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: find an under owned potential separator who I think is
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: at least like comparable skill wise and in course fit wise.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: This week.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll definitely be talking about that. I know,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: like I said, I got my lane pretty teed up already,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: pun inten And but I'm excited because I think it's
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: just a way that you can just get different pivot
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: and also build different on this week. But what do
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: you have anything else in the megashock range you want
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: to talk about, like from a viable pivot perspective. I
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: know we talked a little pre show about a one
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa, but there's other alternatives. I just thought that's
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: at least somewhat interesting. He's definitely not going to project
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: as well. There's guys like Corey Connors projects basically the
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: same as more Cow and give or take or different
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: sites things, but just noting it, that's kind of part
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: of the conversation. But I guess you know, Corey Connors
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: or sorry, Calin Morikawa could be a guy up top
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: that just gets you naturally different. He even has a
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: morning tea time in our course FT rankings, he still
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: fits really well. We've literally watched this guy what throwaway
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: tournaments and lose like seven stroke leads in Hawaii before
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: a different thing. But you know, my point being who knows,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: but it wouldn't it would It would shock nobody if
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Calin Morikawa won this this event. It's like, that's the
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: main point in my eyes.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Yes, I absolutely want to talk about Markawa because I
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: think he fits in none of the things that we've
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: talked about here. So number one great wind player in
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: in the last three years, if you look at his
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: last thirty six windy rounds, he's gained one point four
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: to eight strokes per round, and he's gained strokes in
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent of those rounds, So one point four
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: eight seventy one percent if you take all of his
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: rounds combined in that timeframe, zero point eight seven gained
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: per round and gaining in sixty five percent of his rounds,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: So very clearly better in wind than in the calm
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: conditions relative to the field.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: And that, by the way, I think is kind of
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: an important point.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: There is like, when you evaluate how good is this
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: guy in wind, you don't just want to look at
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: his rowstrokes game because typically you're still going to see
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: the same as usual. The better players are better, the
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: worst players are worse. You want to be looking at
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: how they do in WINNI conditions compared to their baseline,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: And in this case, Morc how is much better in
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: WINNI conditions than his baseline, So that makes him interesting
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: to me. The second thing is he really really fits
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: this definition of guys who weren't their usual selves down
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: the second half of last season, and maybe just by
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: returning to their long term form, are a lot better
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: plays this week and than what most projection models around
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: the industry ares included are saying, we only haven't projected
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: to gain point sixty seven strokes round. That's over half
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: a stroke behind Ben Griffin and JJ spawn Marc how
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: is the better long term player than these guys, and
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: we haven't projected over half a stroke behind per round,
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: so he could really close that gap. And part like,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: I don't really care about the fact that that you know,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: he now has at least a two year history of
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: starting really hot in Hawaii. To me, the more important
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: thing is a year ago to date. This is a
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: guy who came out and gained four point three strokes
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: at the Century, one point seven at EIGHTE and t
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: one point six at Genesis, three point eight at the API,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: two point eight at the Players, and then two per
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: round at the Masters like this is one of the
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: best players in the world when he's playing well, and
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: after an extended break like this, the chance that he's
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: back to that form is a lot higher than him
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: just randomly finding it in you know, in a random
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: October event or September event or even in the FATISCA
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: playoffs where his iron play was great but the rest
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: of his game didn't come around. So I think there's
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: enough from more how it to really confidently play him
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: in DFS this week. Doesn't mean you have to. It
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: isn't necessarily a priority because he has to also beat
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: the highest probability plays in the slate. But from just
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: a pure like, what are the chances that he is
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: the best player in this field at the end of
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: the year compared to his ownership, I think he's the
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: clear guy there.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which is again I know that last year matters.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: You can't just throw it out the window. We talk
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: about this all the time, and specifically in golf. It's
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: different than the other sports in that sense of like
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: NFL can be a coaching regime. You know, probably hashtag
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: too soon and you know, sore spot for you, But
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: like offensive coordinator can come in and mess things up
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: and you know all this stuff. In golf, yes, you
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: can lose your game gain it, but like I said,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: if you go back to if it's just three hundred
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: and sixty five days ago, we're sitting here having the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: same conversation. If we say to the chat, yo, everybody
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: in here is over one hundred and almost one hundred
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: and twenty people watching, We appreciate you. If we say Morikawa,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: Henley or Ben Griffin, what gets pumped in every every
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: single time, it's gonna be more cow. It's just then
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: he goes and has the year that he did. Those
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: guys have the year they did, and now it's like
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: auto assumed. So somebody asked earlier like about adjusting projections.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: I do think if you're playing, you know, m me,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: you can do it in golf. You can do it
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: with just the exposures right. You can make it so
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: you can you can exit guy out and get zero
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: of him and instead get more of another guy that
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: you're going to now pick up around them. You can
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: make sure you have a min exposure on a guy
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: like that like Mark how if you want, you can
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: change the projection if you're using contest sims, I would
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: recommend changing the projection so you actually get the appropriate
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: contest rois that are related to that. But if you don't,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: don't get mad that the ROI is not reflecting as
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: good as you want because you're using a player with
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: a projection that's not adjusted for, but your mind is saying,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm adjusting them in because of this. So just
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: just noting that. But where else do you want to
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: go next? And what do you want to take it
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: on from here? Alex, I like where you were going
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: with that one. Is there other stuff that you want
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: to talk about up top or in these ranges? Or
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: do you want to go to sort of some of
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: the value range and start talking about that.
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: Maybe we should just use Maric how as a segue
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: to talk about, like other players who fit this mold
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: of who's the guy who was struggling the end of
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: last year and therefore isn't projecting well but could regain
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: his form from the get go this year and you know,
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: in a month from now we're talking about, oh my god,
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: can you believe he was that cheap and that low
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: on at the Sony And we know that this guy
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: has been this quality of player for years and years now.
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: So if you want to go that route, I think
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: the next guy to talk about might be Jordan's Speith
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: at eighty three hundred dollars Obviously he hasn't been, you know,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: dominant in years and years, but he is still a
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: quality player. And the thing that I like about Speed,
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: the thing that really makes me excited, is he has
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: really turned around his greatest weakness. So when you looked
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: at you know, why why was he struggling in twenty
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: twenty two and twenty twenty one and twenty twenty A
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: lot of it was his accuracy off the tea just
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: kind of stunk, and he was he was way too
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: often putting himself in a position where he wasn't able
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: to take advantage of how good his iron play is
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: and how good his short game is because he was constantly, constantly,
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: constantly out of position. But last year we really saw
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: the driver become more accurate. He actually kind of lost
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: maybe a touch of distance compared to the previous year,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: but was still sneaky long and just significantly more accurate.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: And then throughout the season we also saw the spikes
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: that we need to see from him for a win
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: in all the categories. He had weeks where he was
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: phenomenal with his irons, He had weeks where he made everything.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: He had weeks where he was dominant around the Greens.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: He just never put it all together at the same time.
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: So I'm very encouraged by what we saw from him
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: last year. I'm very encouraged by just I think, you know,
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: his potential and win two by the way, like a
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: very strong win player. So I think there's a chance
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: that he starts this season strong. And more importantly, there's
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: a chance that he puts those you know, very those
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: high volatile skill sets together this year more than he
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: did last year. So instead of having eight top twenties,
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: maybe he has six top twenties but two wins or
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: something like that. And that makes me very interested in
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: speak just all season long, and no reason not to
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: start with him. Here in the we get eighty three
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars and it looks like single digit ownership.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm talking about viiable pivots. Like again, there's gonna
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: be don't forget, if we get the single entry, a
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: guy like Rye is gonna get steamed up even more. Typically, again,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: eighty two hundred fits all the molds. He fits the ballot.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: If someone goes spawn Connors, very easy to fit Rye.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: And also if people are looking at the am guys
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: more so, that's gonna boost Rye even more. You could
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: see a four to one ownership gap on Rye versus Speed.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: And again, same conversation anytime besides just looking at the
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: last year, a lot of people will be looking at Speed.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: And it's not just always betting on talent. If you
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: guys are listening close to what Alex is saying, he's
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: not just saying the guys that are the talents and
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: the capable names that you would know from past history
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: and like almost taking like oh, this is former master's
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: chair and all this stuff, like all these different things.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: It's like also what would fit the course the breakdown
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: of you know, the people getting treated like a Scottie
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Scheffler outlier in projections and whatnot, when realistically it may
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: not actually be that way, not just because of their
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: talent level or name or skill. They actually have Tallex's
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: point probability of making the cut for you and giving
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: you that opportunity over the weekend. But these are options
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: that could also make the cut with them, Like Speed
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: is what five percent behind Ryan unmade the cutodds or
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: something in those are just the odds. I'm just saying,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: it's not that much further behind you. Need them both
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: to make a cut, yes, or one of them if
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: you're pivoting. But once they get there, anything could happen.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: And if Speed has the better weekend, now you're talking
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: about over thirty six holes and not just over the
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: seventy two once they get there. So it's like there's
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: all kinds of opportunity from that perspective. But it's a
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: viable option based on everything you said, not just well
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: I think Jordan Speed could be better than Aaron Rydes.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: It's not always that simple. So yeah, I like how
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: you broke that down. What else? What else are you
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: thinking here?
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's see who else fits this mold. Maybe Billy
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: Horschall as well. Coming back from injury's gonna play a lot.
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: Looked good in TGL. I don't think we should take
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: much of anything from TGL, but it can't hurt that
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: he looked good there. And I like the fact that
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: he seems like really geared up to play a bunch
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: and he did kind of show some signs of life,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: like he was very good at the Bank of Utah
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: Championship in October, finished eleventh. There a lot of it
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: was short game in putting, so I would have liked
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: to see the ball striking be better. But you know,
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: this guy who was playing pretty good golf before his injury.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: He had multiple top tens Valspar and the at and
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: T Pebble Beach, so he could return to for him
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: a little bit here much healthier than he was last season.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: I'm going to throw in a name that actually before
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: I get to the really scary one, Sat the Gala,
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: I think is a perfect definition of this. Last year,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: I thought that he really kind of got into his
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: own head and was trying to fix some of the
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: issues that he had previously. You know, in twenty twenty four,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: he was in contention a ton, but didn't get it done,
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: and especially played really poorly, like in the final round
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: of the PGA Championship, and it seemed like he was
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: maybe trying to figure out how he could solve that
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: issue and then ended up changing some things that he
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: maybe shouldn't have changed and just kind of got all
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: out of sorts with his game. And he's very much
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: you can tell like somebody who he's going to play
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: really well when he's playing well, and he's going to
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: struggle when he's struggling, because he's very like emotionally reactionary.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: So I think just having the fresh start of a
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: new season could really help him. Tony Fenales bounce back
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: candidate in that way as well. The really ugly name
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: that I'm interested in all the way down at sixty
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: three hundred dollars is Tom Hogi. And yeah, I mean
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: he played horribly last year, but it was it was
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: really strange. It wasn't like he struggled for the whole season.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: If you look at his season, he was really good
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: for a stretch in March and April. The Irons were dominant,
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: as they often are. He finished seventh of the Memorial
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: in June, and then it kind of fell off the
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: off the wagon. So he hit the ball well at
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: the US Open, but lost his stroking half putting.
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: And missed the cut. That was sort of the theme.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: He lost the ball striking in large part, I think
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: because his putting was so bad that he.
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: Was just like in his head and couldn't figure out.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: He lost four point four strokes per round putting at
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: the Open Championship three point nine the following week at
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: the three M Open. You can't play golf that way.
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: Of course, your ball striking is going to struggle the
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: putter kind of stabilized the FedEx and the BMW Championship
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: with the ball striking was still gone, and then you
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: get into the fall. He finished twenty first at the
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: WW Technology Championship. He gained a stroke par round with
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: the irons at the Bank of Utah Championship. The main key, though,
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: is we're talking about one of the best win players
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: in the world. So in winny conditions in those last
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: three years, he's gained one point zero one strokes per round,
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: he's lost point three to.
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: Five strokes p round.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: Elsewhere he's gained in fifty six percent of those winning rounds,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: only gained in forty six percent of other rounds.
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: So I think the.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: Combination, just the long layoff with the really really good
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: wind play makes him interesting as a one percent sixty
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: three hundred dollars player. I don't know that he's gonna
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: make my single entry. The fact that I'm a single
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: entry player means, you know, I might not do anything
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: about this. And so he's only one hundred and fifty
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: to one in betting markets. By the way, like I
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: thought I might be able to get a two hundred
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: fifty or a three hundred to one number on him,
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: in which case I would.
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: Have ran to that.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: But I think he's interesting in sixty three hundred, and
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: he fits this mold of guy that we have, like
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: a long track record of being a much much, much
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: better player than what his current price suggests.
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: I like that, you know, our man, Jay Bannick said,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: But other casinos in Hawaii if so, no HOGI, But yeah,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: definitely something to think about when you're playing. You know,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Nick had brought up earlier. He know this is a
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: good way. I put it to either a sixty two
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: or an eighty two. But again people should remember too.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I think Alex has dropped a pretty good nugget there,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: if you will of the setup around. If he's only
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: like he's playing one lineup, single entry, and you can
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: put it in whatever else he's building for, but just
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: noting it, he may drop some of these nuggets that
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: he can't get to, or he may have to get
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: to it in a betting market like a top forty
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: or something that he plays like an outright each way
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: whatever he can get you, but the point being you
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: may be able to use that if you play more lineups.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: But one note would be these are the types of
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: players that you are looking for in your MM pools,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Like it's you want that volatility because that sixty two
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: spike on Saturday, and now he's in the mix, and
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: now he's right there for you if you've got a
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: significant portion of him and that in this case, it
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: could be five to ten percent of your portfolio, ten
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: percent one hundred fifty lineups. If if you're not talking
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: signal untry for a minute, that's fifteen lineups. Now you've
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: now got fifteen Hogy lineups that are in the mix,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: and most people don't have any. So it's like that
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: can be what changes the game for.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: You and knowing that, But I think this comment from
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: Nick is fantastic for sixty two or eighty two because
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Playman Showdown, you can be you can think it's the
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: dumbest idea in the world to play Tom Hogy on
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: mainslat and maybe it is, but pla him and showdown
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: because he has that he's going to he's going to
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: give you a slate breaking showdown performance significantly more often
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: than anybody else even remotely near his price tag. So uh,
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: that's a that's it's a perfect like uh kind of
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: summary of who Hogi is as a player.
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: And it it it very much.
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: Uh does just like work to kind of apply, you know,
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: the label of showdown play versus main slate play to
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: a lot.
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: Of these guys.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, man, Kenny's had been caught meetings all morning, but
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: excited for this collab. Best of luck, best of luck
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: to you as well, and it's a it's a fun
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: year ahead. We've got our man Chad in here. Millie
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: Maker winner from last season, loved to see that. He said,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: I had a dream Tom Hogi one, So you know,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: just tough to say, but you know, you get in
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: on that stuff. I want to bring up a more
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: talking point around just strategy for two seconds, because Marquee
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: brings up something and obviously you know what having the
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: winner is certainly nice, but that's like building your pool
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: around it, and then you you get to that. But
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: this is also why we focus so heavily on this show,
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: even during the NFL season and now debuting it for
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the PGA season, on how to play, not who to play,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: because tip clean, like just realistically nobody really knows anything.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Like even those are the betting cards, you know, seven
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: to ten bets they're betting accordingly, and that makes sense.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: You show the receipts hopefully, but just note it. They're
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: betting on a seven to one, so it's like to say,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: like one hundred to one gets there for them, and
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: that's the victory lap and excitement, But they didn't win
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: one hundred to one, and they're openly admitting that that's okay.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: They're betting accordingly. I'm just saying that's kind of like DFS.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: If you're playing more lineups, you're saying, like, if I'm
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: building a portfolio, it's to achieve this. The guesswork is,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: let's try and build our lineups that we can kind
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: of figure out. And the difference versus betting outrights and
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: playing DFS is we have a significant amount of information
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: in DFS where we can account for steam, moon walks, ownership,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: roster construction, field type that we're playing in, types of
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: players were going up against, the lineup selection that we
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: can put in to that tournament, just so many other factors.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean it's easier. Don't take this the wrong way,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: just stating we have a lot more information where you
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: can use this to help build the puzzle in your
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: own way. Your lane leverage lane, but also being able
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: to use it towards like a strategy and a thought
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: process about winning a game versus picking a winner's that's
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: way harder to do.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there are two things I want to say about
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: about this comment that a fifty to one guy has
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: won a bunch here recently. The first is, we never
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: want to overreact to this type of thing, and the
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: way we don't overreact to something is first trying to
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: understand why it's been the case. So one potential explanation is,
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: let's go back to this course fit model. Every single
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: weight was negative, right, and so the skill gaps are
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: less here on this course than they would be on
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: a US Open course. So then they would be at
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Mierfield Village any you know, mainstay PGA tour course.
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: So that's part of it.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: It's just bringing the best players down towards the middle
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: of the pack so you have you know, more, you know,
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: just more guys are in play to actually win. But
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: the second thing here is let's look at the odds
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: this week. There's nobody ten to one or better to win.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: I'm just looking at Fando for the moment, just to
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: rattle off these numbers. There are only five guys better
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: than twenty to one. There are only four more guys
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: between twenty and thirty, So out you know, you get
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: to the tenth high tenth most likely guy to win,
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: and already you're at thirty to one in this event.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: So the likelihood of you know, a ten to one
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: guy winning it's impossible, isn't a ten to one guy.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: So the fact that someoney fifty to one has won
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: a bunch recently doesn't really tell us anything. And another
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: thing there is, like, let's count the number of guys
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: between forty and sixty to one. There are more between
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: forty and sixty, and there are thirty in below, so
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: it makes sense that someone in that range has won
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: so often here, and honestly, like it shouldn't surprise us
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: if one hundred and twenty to one wins the same
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: sort of idea. There are so many guys in that
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: price range. It doesn't mean that any one, you know,
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: specific fifty to one player is more likely to win
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: this week than his odds suggest. It just means that
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: there are more of those guys. So just somebody to
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: keep in mind and kind of the way to always
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: think through this stuff because.
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: That's that's a trend I've noticed that.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: You know, the industry loves is like, oh, who has
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: won here in the past, Let me search for someone
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: in that range, and that's who I'm gonna bet on
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: this week. Doesn't really work that way, and this is why.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's usually they don't go granular on it either,
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: like Kenny talks about some as the field strength change
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: changes quite drastically, or the course set up switches, or
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: also it's like did they really look at the board
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: or just the winner, because if you look like all
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: the there's like three guys behind them that were ten
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: to one, twenty to one, twenty five, it's like, actually,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: it was just that last put or the playoff or
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: whatever that forced a fifty to one winner. And do
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: it again. Mark, He's always your supporting, We appreciate you.
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: It's not really anything about you. You, it's about the statement.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: You may just trying to, you know, let others understand.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: It's all about helping each other. And that's when you
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: bring up something like that, it helps us explain it
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: better to people to try and help them love this
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: game as much as we do and get good at it.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: The viewer continue to grow, So I'm excited. If you
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: guys are just joining us for the first time, make
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: sure to hit that thumbs up, make sure to subscribe
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: to the channel. Will be doing this every Wednesday ten
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: thirty am Eastern, but I think we'll keep it rolling
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: if you got the time to stick around man and
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: talk a little bit more on these values. I know
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: you gave some good pivots up, top down low. It
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: kind of goes with us. I don't want to spend
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: too long on this, but because it can be a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: whole another tangent for like another show. But obviously it'll
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: come up again earlier in the season. People are trying
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: to pick their guys. I know this guy from DP
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: World Tour. I love this guy from Corn Ferry. You
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: can kind of go down a deep, deep dive on
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: that stuff or you you'll completely go off the rails
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: on this stuff. And it's like you talked about having
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: nobody over eight percent, but people have, you know, four
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: up and comers that they think are gonna have a
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: good season in their lineup. Can it work? Yeah, sure,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: because of the field strength and everything we just talked
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: about it, you know, maybe it works. But typically it's
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: like you kind of got to pick your poison. Just
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: using that as a segue into sort of some of
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: the values this week, how do you think about that stuff?
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: And then what's your thoughts on some of the values
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: that are being talked about down seven k and upper
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: six k's for this week.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a there's there's one kind of comparison that
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: I think is really fun to make down here. This week,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: let's look at Michael Kim versus Michael Brennan. And the
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: reason I want want to look at these guys is
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: because Michael Brennan's projected at four percent s Electricy ownership
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: for US right now.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: Michael Kim's at twenty two percent.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: And the other interesting thing about these two guys is
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: they were both really high best ball picks. I don't
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: know how many people watching we're playing pjas ball over
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: an underdog, the PME Open and the Scramble, but Michael
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: Kim was a top ten pick. And obviously it you know,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: best ball adp does not reflect how good the player is.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: It's it's large about how often we think they're gonna play.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: But there are a lot of guys who we expect
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: to play a lot early, who have you know, equivalent
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: status to Brennan or Michael Kim and didn't get picked
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: this high. So Michael Kim and Michael Brennan were both
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: really high best ball picks. Brennan ended up like I
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: don't know, twentieth something like that. Both really high basketball picks.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: Both very similar price tags this week. One is super chalk,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: the other is not. We have Brennan projected to gain
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: point three seven strokes per round, Michael Kim to gain
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: point three to eight strokes per round. So to me,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: this is one of those ownership differences and discrepancies that
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: just really just pops out as why is this the case?
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: This is something we should take advantage of. I really
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: like Brennan. I don't know again that I'm gonna play
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: him because I only have one lineup to choose from,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: so you know, I'm gonna I'm invariably going to have
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: players that I really like and think that are really
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: good plays this week who don't make my lineup. He's
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: definitely one of the guys who I'm considering and I
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: think is a phenomenal play, whether or not he ends
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: up in my life.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: If we live in the world at NFL for just
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: two seconds talk about the old red zone quad box.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: What would you say to this, Like you just talked
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: about Brennan, I'll keep him in the quad box. But
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: you probably have all of these in front of you
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: doing that same example with Writon, Pendrith, and let's say
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Eric Cole, just three other guys that typically always get
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit of steam, maybe less coal this week
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: once the final stuff all comes out. But let's say,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: like Writing for sure, Pendricks for sure, how do you
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: see like Brennan around those guys, because Brennan's also in
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: between Berger, Meisner, mccardi, those guys. What sort of your
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: thoughts here?
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: I'll start with our actual projections. We've got right and
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: at point four to six, Pendrith at point thirty nine,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: So we do have rightness slightly better. But we have
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: all these guys like very very similar in terms of
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: their likelihood of success this week. I think Writen and
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: Brennan really kind of fit together in this comparison because
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: they're both young, up and coming guys. We don't know
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: a ton about them yet, you know, certainly we don't
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: have a great sample of them with shot link data,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: but we do know they are very very good off
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: the tee and they're off the t strength is what
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: sets up the rest of their game for success.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: Right Like, if if you put.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: Brennan in the in the middle of the fairway, in
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: the rough, right next to everybody else in the field,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: he wouldn't project well. The reason why we like Brennan,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: the reason why we think he could be a really
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: good play both this week and throughout the season, is
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: because what he typically does off the tee one hundred
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: and ninety plus ball speed, really accurate off the tee,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: can work the ball in all types of ways, should
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: be a pretty good win player. For that reason was
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: very good in the four windy rounds that he played
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: in the fall. Is because he's going to be playing
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: from positions that other guys aren't. He's going to have
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: one thirty from the middle of the fairway when others
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: are hitting from one sixty out of a fairway bunker.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: He's going to be hitting a flip wedge when others
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: have a full swing wedge. He's going to be hitting
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: six iron into a par five when others are being
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: forced to lay up or forced to hit into the
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: green with the three wood.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: Things of that nature.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: So I think right kind of fits that category as well,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: Like he's gaining most of his advantage off the tee.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: Pendrith has the distance that those two guys have, but
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have the consistent accuracy off the tee that
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: those two guys have, where Pendrith then separates as he's
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: probably the best putter of the group. So when I
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: look at these three and I remember, okay, but putting
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: and distance are the least predictive things this week, Pendrith
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: seems to me like a bad chalk option and somebody
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: that I will be much more interested in playing when
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: we get to know the farmer's insurance open if he
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: tees it up there or courses like that where distance
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: is really rewarded over accuracy and putting is predictive as well.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so, just in a spirit of time, I'm going
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: to say a couple things quick, and then we can
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: get to sort of what contests we're playing, and then
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: the betting breakdown and we'll get to our lane. We'll
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: probably wrap up in the next ten to fifteen. But
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: just to note to one other point I want to
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: bring up, especially on a week like this, what people
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: always say, and I trust this is everywhere. It's in
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: our discord. I'm sure it's in yours. It's you'll hear
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: it all around the industry. Is like, it'll be the
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: conversation around Okay, well, not all of them can be chalk.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be spread out, which is true. Like you
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: will see something on Pendroth, something on Right and something
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: on McCarty, something on Meisner. It's all going to exist
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: somewhere in there. But one of the things I look
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: for is like, who are the same guys that they're
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: all the same, Like, who are the same guys in
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: that range that you can just go down to like seven,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: like just going down for outside of Michael Kim and Girard,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: you could have Alex Smalley, how tong Lee, John Perry,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Sahithi Gala. We talked about other guys, Maddy Schmid. Sometimes
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: we'd have to see what fits your you're laying your model,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: whatever you're using as your process. But what's prevalent and
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: what's clear is it's about the range. It's not about
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: the golfers. People have already decided on those value golfers
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: as their guys and what will still be somewhat spread
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: out they fit perfectly with Connors, with Spawn, with Henley.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: You see how that starts to form a thing. And
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: it's like at the end of the day, we're talking
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: about the differences on Morac Howa versus Griffin and Henley,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: and we're talking about Sebu Kim and Keith and Bradley
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: and JJ Spawn, and we talked about god heter up
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: versus you know, Keith Mitchell versus Connors. If those are conversations,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: there is like ten to fifteen guys down low that
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: you can have that conversation around whoever you think is
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: the guy. So sometimes it's a about the range, and
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: it's if you looked down there, who are the guys
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: lower than those guys? And then you don't even have
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: to go to the same guys up top. And that's
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: where Alex I think was hitting on earlier. If it
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: works out that way and you land on some of
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: the chalkier pieces up top because you just you can't
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: get past her you think they're good enough, or if
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: it's a Scotty week, you know, different relevance even just
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: noting it, then that makes sense because it's like, look,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: I already found guys download that are huge separators. I'm
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: in a different roster construction low under three percent owned,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But on a week like this,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: if you're like, well, shit, I'm convinced on Morikawa. I
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: like those three guys you mentioned that you could have
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: a different roster construction all plays under ten percent. I
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: know some people think that's too cute. If you play
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: the high stakes, those bleed stuff like my man Kenny does,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: probably not the best way to try and just over
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: leverage the entire field. But for the large field stuff,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: it is not the same as other sports. It's like
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: there's all kinds of weeks where six or six is
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: two percent or three percent, and any six of six
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: is a good one, And there might be one guy
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: at the fifteen percent in the lineup and the rest
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: are all sub ten percent. It happens all the time,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: and it's huge separation to help find your way to
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: the top of these very top heavy tournaments. Anything else
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: you want to add there? If not, I think we
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: should talk a little bit about what contests we're playing
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: week one here.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, before we get there, I want to put you
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: on the spot and ask you a question of all
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: the chalk that we discussed who is the guy that
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: you think you're most likely to play Connors?
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Me too, Yeah, I would look to get different with it.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I would look like when people are
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: looking to pivot, but the most likely to play just
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: based on price up again, just probably not gonna hurt you.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: And because he's even lower priced than the other two,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: he fits different bills. I have tons of different ways
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: I can build with him and around him. Then I
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: need to go off of him. He makes the most
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: sense to me there.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: Yeah, my thoughts on Connors.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: The reason why he's also the chalk I'm most likely
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: to play is because number one, he like like Spawn
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: and Henley, honestly like He very clearly projects above the
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: players he's around, so I'm not wishing that He's a
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: phenomenal wind player.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: So I like that.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: And it's also really easy to play him with some
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: of his potential pivots like Kittyam and Chris Kirk for example,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: have really good GPP scores.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: We talked about Jordan Speed.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: You can very easily play at least three of those
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: four guys and have you know, no salary constraint concerns
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: whatsoever after you put that group into your lineup. So
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: I really like that because, as we know, people like
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: to either play chalk or they like to play the pivots.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: They don't like to put chalk with pivots together. That's
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: something that we've really really seen from contest him. So
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: that kind of you know, so like Connor's plus Kittiyama
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: will be less owned as a combination than what you
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: would expect just given their ownership projection. So that sort
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: of thing is something I'm always on the lookout for,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: and I think we can really easy account easily accomplish
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: it this week with Connors.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: That's how I try to bring up earlier too, like
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: the goughter up example could be Adam Scott for you
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: whatever you guys think. I'm just at my point was
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: more people look at it and go all of amar
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: aready here. And I know this because people handbuild. We're
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: talking about single entry for you know, on purpose. So
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: many of the shows out there already exist around MM.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: There's tons of principles I think at least that you
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: can take from the show and apply. And this is
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: week one, Episode one, Sony open like We're gonna be
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: around all season long. But the note being like when
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: you look at that, and you're sitting in front of you,
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: and I know everybody does. They sit on their phone.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: They're like, Okay, I got this, I got this, I
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: got this. Well, I just heard them say, like I
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: heard all these sights, like Connors's chock, I'm gonna move
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: off him. They turn Connors into someone else way more
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: often then you say, what if I add to cause
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: slice and dice I talk about all the time you
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: get a running back that's gonna be popular. Sometimes it's
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: the defense that pushes up the ownership on the running
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: back to make the combo even more popular. But other times,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: like everyone's on James Cook, but nobody's playing the buffalo
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: defense or nobody's playing a run back to sort of
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: force him to do it. There's secondary stacks and ways
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: you can do it where you can sort of slice
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: and dice into that ownership in a way that still
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: makes sense. If Connors is the chalk that we believe
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: makes the most sense for all those reasons we just listed,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: and we're good with it, why not look to do
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: it in a different way to separate you so that again,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: if you're in the middle of the room or the
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: back of the room, in my analogy from earlier, and
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: you're with the Connors people, all us nice Canadians, as
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: my friend Nick Mars likes to say. Here Marcy, he says,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: you know, you know, I'd pick this guy because he's Canadian.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: But that's my point. If you do that, you might
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: be in the middle of the room from them. But
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: if got her Up goes off and they say, oh damn,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: I could have just played got her Up instead, and
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: the answers actually needed to play both. You just zoom
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: to the front of the room and got ahead of
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: them that way. So little things like that I think
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: are important to remember. This guy didn't want to hear
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: the Canadian talks, bring up Canada. He's out, man, just
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what happened.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: I'm glad I went back to the window. I wouldn't
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: have even known that I had been disconnected.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Do not forget a Canadian one last year Nick Taylor.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: Nick Taylor's the man too. He's nine K this week.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: He's actually somewhat interesting as well. I guess I should
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: know it again. We'll see if people end up going
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: there with Harry Hall and some other stuff around it.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: A kid can't bring it all up, but I think
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: there's definitely some interesting options to go with here to
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: get different. What contests are you playing this week? I
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: brought it up earlier. I'm definitely playing the two hundred
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: dollars single entry to kick things off. It's a nice structure.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: I feel really good about this week, which we'll get
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: to our lane in a bit here, but I'm definitely
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be going in the two hundred dollars single entry
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: this week.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: For this Yeah, I think I will too.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: One interesting thing is my favorite single entry is the
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: two hundred dollars with two hundred and seventy seven people.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: It doesn't look like they have that this week. The
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: two hundred dollar has five hundred and fifty five. It's
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: still really top heavy, twenty thousand to first instead of
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: ten thousand and first. So, if anything, that will make
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: me lean towards an even more contrariance single entry lineup
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: than I usually do.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: I also think that, like.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: As even though I very very rarely don't play single
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: entry every single week, I am looking at the player
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: pool and what my potential player pool looks like, and
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: I am asking myself, like, is this a week where
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: maybe I should do three lineups or four lineups where
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: maybe there's.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: You know, maybe there are three players.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: That I know I want locked into my lineup, but
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: then beyond that, it's it's really kind of you know,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: just shrug and hope and then okay, maybe I want
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: to do three different combinations of this, you know, core
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: and just vary around that.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: I don't see that this week.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: I do think I'm gonna, you know, just find something
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: I really like, and so I'll probably play single entry.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: I very much like that two hundred dollars. I also like,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: I think you can throw just one lineup into the
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty dollars with two hundred and sixty
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: six people, that one has sixteen point seven percent first.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: So that's very similar to the the two hundred and
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: seventy seven dollars single that I usually play. Same amount
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: goes to first place, but it does cost an extra
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: fifty bucks to get into. And then from a qualifier standpoint,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: it doesn't look like we have any megas available just yet,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: but there is a ninety eight dollars, three hundred person
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: World Championship qualifier that I will probably do, as you know,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: the substitute for those usual satellites that I do.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Which one is that.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: Four to nine five million dollars?
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: Oh?
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: Wait, did I click the wrong thing?
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: The f w Are you gonna you're gonna play the
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: f FWC the big one?
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, FGWC Round one contest ticket.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: That's an ff Yeah FGWC. Sorry, it's it's starting this week. Yeah,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty eight dollars. Right, Yeah, so that's
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: that's one ticket only. That's three hundred entrants for one ticket,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: ninety dollars to join. It's it's harder to do that.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: If if I had a larger bank roll, then I'd
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: probably do the four hundred and thirty eight dollars one
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: for sixty seven. Uh, with sixty seven entrants. That's usually
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: the size of satellite that I go to. It's like
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: the seventy dollars, the seventy five dollars for the for
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: the megas is usually sixty seven people.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: So so yeah, we're gonna, as you guys can probably tell,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: we're gonna we're gonna try to do this kind of
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: conversation more often. Uh here on leverage Lane where we're
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: we're kind of talking through what we're gonna do and
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: using that as an example to help you guys. And
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: obviously that means like if you if you have less
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: of a bank roll, okay, figure out how to do
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: what we're doing at just a you know, a scale
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: down version. Yes, I think A big point there is
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: like if you look at the satellites and qualifiers right now,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: you see a bunch of three dollars and one dollar
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: satellites to get into the ten dollars milli. That is
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: not the kind of thing that I want to do,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: because the milli is not the kind of contest that
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I usually play, right, So I want the top heavy
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: but smaller single entries, and I will, you know, so
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: like even when I get into the Mega, it's not
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: single entry, but the Mega this past week for the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: wild Card weekend was five hundred and sixty seven people.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: I'd much much much rather compete against five hundred and
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: sixty seven people than against three hundred thousand or however
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: many are going to be in this ten dollars milli.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: So I always you know, this is something I've talked
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: about a lot recently in my discord as well. It's
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: like when you're looking at the satellites that you're joining,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: you should be trying to get into contests that you
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: feel like you still have a really large and attainable
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: edge in. You might have a large edge in that
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: ten dollars millie, but how attainable.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: Is that edge When the edge means you have to.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: Beat three hundred thousand other people to actually, you know,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: realize that edge, it's a lot harder to do that.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: So with your satellite play, try and get into contests
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: that you actually want to play. And you know, if
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: you had a larger bankroll, you would be entering yourself.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just trying to find it. They're like,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: there's a thirty three dollars single entry this week. I
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: think a lot of people would look at it. One
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: hundred and six people. It pays like five hundred bucks
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: for first et cetera, et cetera. It's pretty solid. But
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: like sometimes you can find a way, And you talked
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: about this during the season for football. I was just
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: trying to find it. I can't find it now anyway.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: Like if you sometimes have a setup where you're like,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: you know what, I really like this lineup, but I
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: found this TWOV two and this TWOV two. You playing
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: three lineups as opposed to one doesn't have to mean
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: playing more money. You can actually play less. Like someone
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: who plays one hundred dollars single entry might be able
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: to find a twenty dollars three max and then use
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: the additional money for something else or whatever. Picking And
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna pick this one as my thirty
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: three dollars single entry, but I'm going to play the
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars three max. That one that I think is
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: my best will be duplicated. I still come in at
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: less than one hundred dollars. You might play for a
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: little less, but you'll cover yourself and you're almost playing
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: you you talked was super well during the NFL season.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: I'm playing a three max like a single entry. It's like, look,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty clean on these spots. I'm just moving a
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: few pieces, but I do want to cover my ass
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: or cover a couple angles to say I'm gonna do
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: it this way, and it's not actually plied. I just
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: saved you money. I always say it this way, but
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: it saves you enough money to buy a milkshake to
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: drown your sorrows. If you were completely wrong anyway, you
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: would have lost one hundred bucks. Now you lose the
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: ninety three, but you have seven bucks left over for
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: a milkshake. So inflation people, it cost seven bucks these days,
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: but go ahead.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: I think A really good example of this was two
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: years ago at Craig Ranch. It was one of those
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: weeks where I did three entry I had, I want
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: to say it was Thigala, Minwooy and Jake Napp maybe no,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: maybe Keith Mitchell, Keith Mitchell, Jake Napp and Minwooly or.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: Something like that.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: But I had three players at the time, and they're
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: like the only three positive GPP scores. I locked those
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: three guys into all three lineups, and then I had
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: three different combinations of the three value plays. The lineup
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: that did the best, that got to take down that
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: week had Sung Hun Kim, and Sung Hun Kim was
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: popping as like one of our course fit specialists that week.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: It was distant and around the green play that mattered
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: the rest of his game was atrocious, but they didn't
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: matter as much in the course fit model. But I said,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: like I don't want I very very much see like
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: a clear advantage, clear edge this week from playing this
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: combination of Min Wu, Jake Knapp, Keith Mitchell, whichever three was.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: I'm confident that Mitchell and Napp were in there. I
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: don't want that to be ruined by a guy like
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: Sung Hum Kim, who obviously is a much, much much
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: lower probability play than those guys. So I'm just going
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: to play three different lineups as if I'm playing a
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: single entry, but I get like a do over with
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: the value plays in case one of them really screws up.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: And yeah, it worked out really well that week because
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: I Hun actually played really well, finished with a streak
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: like on fifteen sixteen seventeen or something like that, and
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: you know, brought me, brought me all the way to
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: the top that week. But but yeah, it's, as you say,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: like playing a single entry or playing three entry like
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: a single entry, just because you're you're really building around
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: a specific core and then deviating around that.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's important note because it's like again we
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: talked about earlier with medium projection, this show go on forever.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: We're not gonna do that today. We're gonna kind of
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: wrap this thing up. We'll get your your your main
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: betting breakdown piece for this week will be a little
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: bit shorter than usual because we want to kind of
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: we had the extra time to start to tell everybody
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: what the show is all about, but just noting it.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: I know people look at like their optimizer too, or
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: like they look at projections and say, man, I'm down
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: to this twov two. It's like a couple points apart.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: But if you're that strongly about that two v two,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: you should just play both and figure it out. Because
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: because of the medium projection, if one of those is
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: a four or six and one of them is a
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: six to six, you're three points that you're seeing on
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: your screen now becomes a hundred points more in some cases,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: depending on the weeks, could be fifty, could be eighty,
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: could be one hundred plus. My point being, those two
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: v twos matter. It's not like football where you're like, damn,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: I went this way and got fifteen. The other way
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: would have got me twenty seven. Like, yeah, that's still
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: very significant. I'm not saying it's not. I'm saying you're
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: talking about potentially one hundred points on your lineup in
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: something like this decision. So yeah, think about your stuff
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: when it comes to contest selection. All of that. Don't
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: be afraid to shift your money around. It doesn't mean
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: to play more or pay more. It means just to
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: play a more sound game and think about that type
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: of stuff before you go in. So go to the
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: betting breakdown. I know you have a ton more stuff
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: you do in your discord. You know people talked about
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: that they can join that for sure, But what did
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: you have for this week specifically you wanted to hit on.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: I don't have any outrights selected yet. I have a
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: few of them looking in and I'm kind of like
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: looking for an extra reason to actually play it because
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: it's it I'm showing value in the actual market, but
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: it's it doesn't quite reach the threshold that I typically
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: like to find to actually place an outright at. McCarty
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: and Billy Horschell are the two that I think I'm
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: most likely to play. Sahi Figala is also an interesting one.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: We have him at one point two percent, Horseal one
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: point six percent, and McCarty one point nine percent. I
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: think McCarty's probably the one I'm most likely to play
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: because I very much believe there's something to the idea
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: that there is a skill of knowing how to win
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: and being able to get it done, and we can't
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: look at a player who hasn't won like Figala, for example,
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: and say that he doesn't have that skill, or at
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: least he never will have that skill. We can look
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: at a player who's shown us that he can win
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: a bunch and say that guy definitely has it. And
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: the reason for that is it's always really hard to
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: win golf tournaments. And like, let's say you're tied for
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: the lead going into the last day, you still might
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: only have a twenty percent chance to win. So when
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: you don't win when you had a twenty percent chance,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: that doesn't tell us as much as winning when you
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: had a twenty percent chance tells us about your ability
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: to get it done under pressure. So the fact that
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: McCarty already has multiple wins and is projecting this well
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: tells me.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 4: That maybe we should go McCarthy as that outright.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: And then on the pickham side of things, my favorite
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: type of pick them play is probably unique for most
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: because it's not the most fun thing to bet, but
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: it is profitable, and that is betting on guys to
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: finish worse than their finishing position. And before I even
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: give out a play here, I want to talk just
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: for a moment about why this is advantageous and it
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: kind of gets at the idea of what I do
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 2: in NBA. So in NBA, my favorite types of props
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: to go after are free throws made, offensive rebounds, and turnovers,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: and these three types of props are very rarely, if ever,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: offered by actual sports books. And what this means is
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: an underdog has to originate those lines themselves, which makes
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: them more likely to make a mistake and post a.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: Bad line that we can take advantage of.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: In golf, with these finishing positions, it's not that sportsbooks
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: don't offer finishing positions, but sportsbooks are only offering one
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: direction of the finishing position. You can't bet on Colin
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: more Kawa to finish outside the top twenty on most,
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: if not all sports books. Most of the time, you
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: can only bet him to finish inside the top twenty,
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: which means the sportsbook numbers are juiced like crazy, and
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: so his implied odds don't actually line up with his
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: real odds. His implied odds are a lot higher of
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: a top twenty finish than what he's actually likely to do,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: and so over on underdog if they are just following
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: those sportsbook odds and using those implied to then create
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: a two way market where you can bet on better
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: or worse, or pick better or worse than twenty and
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: a half finishing position. Obviously the worse is going to
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: be the more mathematically sound side, and so it's something
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: I had a ton of success with last season. As
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: the season went on, they kind of got the hang
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: of it. You know, I want a lot early in
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: the season, and then it became harder and harder as
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: this season went on to actually find really advantageous lines.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: We have three that our model at FTN really likes
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: this week. Marikawa and Keigan are two of those three.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: I'm not as sold on those though, for two reasons.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: Number one, historically they both have really solid top twenty rates,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: and number two, they're both really good wind players, which
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: our model is not picking up on. So the one
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: guy that I do really like is Sea, who kim
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: worse twenty and a half finishing position. He only finished
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: in the top twenty in eleven of thirty events last year.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: He's simming to finish outside at the top twenty sixty
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: percent of the time, and our model over at FTN
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: and he's a decent win player, but pretty much just
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: like the same guy in the wind as he's outside
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: of the wind, So there's nothing our model is missing there.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: So Sea who kim worse than twenty and a half finishing
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: position is probably going to be the pick that I
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: build around with my PGA plays this week.
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: I love it all right, let's focus on the leverage lane.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: We'll get to the final part of the show here
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: then get out of here. But like I said, moving forward,
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: we will have a bigger section segment on that stuff
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: as well. So I'll let you kick it off first
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: if you want era. I guess maybe I'll do mine
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: because I think it's gonna coincide, so I'm as we'll
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: just say it first, so I have it. Apologies I'm
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: choking over here, but I will say this my one.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: I was excited about it. I told you as soon
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: as we get on, I was like a kidney candy
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: shop just going through this stuff. My guy, this speaks
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: to me Bobby Mack. And it's not just about playing
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: Bobby Mack. It's a lot of factors that go with it.
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: But he's he's probably gonna be like a secondary chalk
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: piece actually, but it's all about how you play him
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: and My take is no matter what he's blocked a
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: little bit by JJ Spawn, people are still gonna want
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: Spawn there in different types of builds. Second secondly, it's
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: if I play Bobby, when I play Bobby Mack, which
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: I am going just so, I'm telling you I'm either
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: gonna play him as the starting point or second to Morikawa.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: And the reason I say that is because that still
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: leaves Henley, Griffin, Spawn out of this. So it really
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter how I look at it. I think you
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: know him getting ready for the start of the season.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: Like you said, I know the best ball stuff, not
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: even in the best ball streets, So that tells you
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: what you need to know there. It's not why I
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people like the fact that he
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: might play a lot more, but I think we saw
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: you know, a lot with him in the past. Now
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: what he's capable of, I think this course can fit him.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: And I think from my perspective of just right out
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: of the gates, taking that uncertainty on of like, yeah,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: he'll be somewhat owned, but because you have the blocker
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: with Spawn and the guys above him in Griffin and
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Henley and other factors, I can either start my builds
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: with him, or I could have him second to Morikawa
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: to get a really different start. And then it also
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: puts you in a very unique place in your roster
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: construction where you don't have to land on the same
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: value plays as everybody else depending on how you build
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: it out from.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: There, what do you got, Yeah, I'm very similar. I'm
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: gonna make Kegan Bradley my leverage lane and I'm probably
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: starting the lineup with him. I think there's there's just
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: a really good opportunity to build really strong, balanced lineups
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: this week, and it's because I think there's a group
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: in the eight k's speak Gottterup, Kirk, Mitchell, Kittiyama, along
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: with Honors that really aren't that far behind in win equity,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: in top twenty equity, in top ten equity, to the
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: guys at the top of the board who are getting
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: so so so much ownership. And if you start there now,
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: your worst player is going to be a lot better
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: than the worst player in the lineups that go to
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: these expensive guys. So I really like that build. And
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: then you're also getting significantly less ownership. So I think
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: like if you build balanced lineups, you're kind of getting
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: the better end of the deal in terms of just
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: like overall win probability and made cut six for six probability,
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: and you're doing so at much lower ownership, So very
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: clear way to build. I think this week and Keegan
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: is the is the most expensive player with a positive
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: GPP score for US over at FTN, so I love that.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: But it's also just like he's he's a really valuable
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: DFS guy because when he plays well, he can beat
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: any field, and so it you know, I love this ceiling.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: I love the win equity from him, but then also
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: you get the boost of this guy's an outstanding win player.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: He's very clearly the best win player of anybody nine
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: thousand and above, so kind of get all factors here.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: He just strikes me as the most under owned play
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: in the field. I think a lot of people, honestly
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: are a little bit afraid of the fact that, hey,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know how he's gonna respond all season to
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: the Ryder Cup. You know, the Ryder Cup took a
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: lot out of him.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: Maybe it broke him to some degree.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: That is a possibility, And honestly I went into this
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: season thinking I probably want to see that Kegan is
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: still kicking before I start playing him. But this ownership
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: at this price, with these wind splits, it's just too
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: good to pass up.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: So Keig is my leverage lane.
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: I love that statement too, because it's like the cliche
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: saying of like I'll pay to find out. I love
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: that one. It's like you're gonna pay to find out.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: It's like because everything else is priced in, it's like
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: the ownership is there for you. It's a lot of
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: talk like his gameplay is his gameplay, how he comes
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: out and handles it, we'll see. But love that call
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: out from you. One thing I could certainly say is
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: that if Bobby Mack has a bad week, I don't
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: think it will because his average latitude was much higher
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: than his oh ahho latitude in Hawaii. But definitely not
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: worried about that or stats then I'm taking into consideration.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the sample would be on it,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: but he can have a bad week for certain. It's
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: all about what you see, how you want to build
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: and go about your stuff. But that's why it's called
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: your leverage lane. Find the lane, stick to it, make
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: it happen. We'll be back every week here.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: No, well, yeah, last thing Campbo on that point with
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: Bobby Mack it is rere noting. Being from Skoling, he's
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: used to win, so we haven't seen like the great
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: wind splits. But theoretically he should be well suited for
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: the win they're going to see this week. So then
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: that can work both ways here.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: It really could, and he did add that, so I
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: should shout him out for that part. Obviously, you have
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: a ton of different people helping out with the chat
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: and engagement and putting questions there. You know, on the
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: first show, we want to make sure we covered a
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: lot of what the season's going to look like and
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: sets up for Let us know in the comments. We're
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: well open two feedback and anything you liked, hated, want
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: more of, et cetera. Leave that in the comments. After
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: this live show ends, if you're watching it on playback,
• 1:30:04
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• 1:30:06
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• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: to the channel so you keep getting this show for
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  Speaker 1: free with all the notifications. Alex, let people know where
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: they can find you and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, find me at on Twitter at alex plicle one.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: Whether you want the GVP scores and ownership over at
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: FTN Fantasy, or you want to get into my discord
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: for Pickham Advance DFS theory or the outrights.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: You can find all of it through my Twitter. So
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: that's the easiest place to go.
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and again if you guys want to go over
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: ship a Nation really does have all the offerings, but
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: I know there's other sites out there five ninety nine
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: for projections ownership, then you got to add an optimizer.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: There's other sites three hundred, but that our partner with
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: Sabersim that don't even have the Sabersim available in that package.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: So for three forty nine expires today and then goes
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: just up to three ninety nine. But you can get
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: everything included if you want to add on the Rick
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: Run Good Tools. We did partner with him yesterday. This
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: is for ship at Nation members only to be able
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: to get this bundle. That's five forty nine. Again, a
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: lot of competitors. Five ninety nine that's just projections and ownership.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: We've got all that stone boots on the ground with Gannon.
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: This gets you Sabersim Optimizer one hundred and fifty lineups
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: with Saberscore and then the Rick run Good Tools. This
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: also expires today, goes to five ninety nine tomorrow, So
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: if you need it, hit us up. If you don't
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about, and you have questions, hit
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: me up Tambo at Shipnation dot com or info at
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: shippitnation dot com. This was a lot of fun, Alex.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to be doing this every week with you,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: my man. I think this is a good starting for
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: as show that's gonna do it for this one guys,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: for Alex and for myself. Totag and Tambo led ship
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: It