Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The Shocking Senate Market FLIP That Nobody Saw Coming!

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The Shocking Senate Market FLIP That Nobody Saw Coming! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  If you haven't already,
• 0:03
  make sure to go to download and subscribe to
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  the Predictable podcast wherever you get your podcasts.
• 0:08
  We're everywhere these days.
• 0:11
  We have a lot of great stuff coming up for you on today's program.
• 0:13
  Do the Democrats actually have a shot at the Senate?
• 0:16
  We'll go through that
• 0:17
  big switch last night and we will,
• 0:19
  uh,
• 0:19
  cover.
• 0:20
  All of that and why it happened.
• 0:21
  Uh,
• 0:22
  candidate countdown today from New York,
• 0:23
  a race that we're interested in,
• 0:25
  might be a little profit for you
• 0:26
  in that particular race.
• 0:27
  And where we defend the castle
• 0:29
  against bad prediction market takes.
• 0:31
  They're all over the place,
• 0:33
  and we have no choice but to defend the castle against them.
• 0:37
  Against them.
• 0:38
  I feel like I should say it against them.
• 0:40
  It's predictable with Stu.
• 0:41
  Go to predictableshow.com and join us on YouTube as well,
• 0:43
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 1:01
  Welcome to it.
• 1:01
  Predictable with Stu.
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  We've got a great show for you today.
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  Uh,
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  yeah,
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  Uh,
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  make sure to join us there.
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  I mean,
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  they really could have picked it,
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  any picture.
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  I don't know why they picked that picture,
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  but they did,
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  uh,
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  Eastern
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  Also,
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  you know,
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  Uh,
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  listener questions and feedback here from time to time.
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  So
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  please,
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  uh,
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  be sure to go there.
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  We are 49 days away from the midterm elections and only
• 1:58
  3 days until the first round of early voting begins.
• 2:01
  Let's go through it.
• 2:02
  By the way,
• 2:02
  tonight
• 2:03
  we say goodbye.
• 2:05
  It's so hard
• 2:06
  to say goodbye
• 2:08
  to yesterday.
• 2:09
  I just thought of that,
• 2:10
  just thought of that right now.
• 2:11
  That was me just off the top of my head.
• 2:13
  That's how profound of a person I am,
• 2:15
  OK.
• 2:15
  Uh,
• 2:16
  we say goodbye to the primary season tonight.
• 2:18
  Yes,
• 2:18
  the very last straggler primary.
• 2:21
  Delaware is like,
• 2:21
  I don't know,
• 2:22
  what if we do the primary after the elections?
• 2:24
  I don't know.
• 2:24
  Let's just try it.
• 2:25
  September 15th,
• 2:26
  yeah,
• 2:27
  pretty late,
• 2:27
  Delaware.
• 2:28
  I know,
• 2:29
  they're moving at the speed of Joe Biden in Delaware,
• 2:31
  apparently.
• 2:32
  Uh,
• 2:33
  the,
• 2:33
  uh,
• 2:33
  that primary is tonight.
• 2:34
  We'll have some stuff on that at predictableshow.com.
• 2:37
  If you have any questions about that,
• 2:38
  any races you're interested in,
• 2:39
  feel free to post in the chat.
• 2:40
  Great community there,
• 2:41
  people bouncing around ideas like this.
• 2:44
  I'll probably go on,
• 2:45
  uh,
• 2:45
  and trade some of those markets live.
• 2:46
  One of the things I like to do
• 2:48
  with these markets,
• 2:49
  if you're just joining us,
• 2:50
  maybe you're on the first TV,
• 2:51
  um,
• 2:52
  and you've never seen the show before,
• 2:53
  one of the things we do is we go on prediction markets.
• 2:55
  And we'll trade those votes as they come out,
• 2:57
  kind of like live,
• 2:58
  and sometimes
• 2:59
  you'll see one candidate that is not the favorite,
• 3:01
  get a big batch of votes come in and uh and
• 3:04
  the markets react to that because that's what these markets do,
• 3:06
  they react to real pieces of information
• 3:09
  and try to distill that to you in one easy to understand number,
• 3:14
  which is a percentage of what might occur.
• 3:16
  And well,
• 3:17
  a lot of times we will look for those opportunities where,
• 3:19
  well,
• 3:19
  wait a minute,
• 3:19
  we see the votes are coming out from this community.
• 3:22
  Well,
• 3:22
  that's actually,
• 3:23
  uh,
• 3:23
  maybe a misleading,
• 3:24
  uh,
• 3:25
  uh,
• 3:26
  point to,
• 3:26
  uh,
• 3:27
  to where this,
• 3:27
  this election's gonna look,
• 3:28
  uh,
• 3:29
  turn out.
• 3:30
  And you know,
• 3:30
  we do our little part and we go in there and we,
• 3:32
  we,
• 3:32
  you know,
• 3:33
  utilize our investment dollars to try to correct those markets for the people,
• 3:36
  right?
• 3:36
  Like that's what these,
• 3:37
  that's what this does when you're buying shares and you're
• 3:39
  Uh,
• 3:40
  hopefully profiting in these markets.
• 3:42
  You're also doing a little bit of work
• 3:43
  to help get the information to the American people a little bit faster,
• 3:46
  a little bit more efficiently,
• 3:47
  and that's what we do here at Predictable with Stu.
• 3:49
  Uh,
• 3:50
  early voting starts,
• 3:50
  uh,
• 3:51
  September 18th,
• 3:51
  a few days away,
• 3:52
  Minnesota,
• 3:53
  South Dakota,
• 3:53
  and Virginia,
• 3:54
  a bunch of states after that.
• 3:55
  I mean,
• 3:56
  look,
• 3:57
  Minnesota,
• 3:57
  South Dakota,
• 3:57
  and Virginia.
• 3:58
  Come on,
• 3:59
  it's too early,
• 4:00
  too early to be voting.
• 4:01
  Yeah,
• 4:02
  I mean,
• 4:02
  Delaware's just picking their candidates,
• 4:04
  and you're already doing early voting for,
• 4:06
  it's just unbelievable how early we're doing this.
• 4:08
  I wanted
• 4:09
  to hit,
• 4:09
  uh,
• 4:10
  at the start of the show with a
• 4:11
  pretty big development in the prediction market world.
• 4:13
  You know,
• 4:13
  prediction markets are great for a lot of different things,
• 4:16
  uh,
• 4:16
  you know,
• 4:16
  uh,
• 4:17
  you know,
• 4:17
  they were picking the Emmys correctly last night even,
• 4:20
  uh,
• 4:20
  but what I like them for most are elections and,
• 4:23
  and politics.
• 4:23
  I,
• 4:23
  I think understanding these issues a little
• 4:26
  bit better is something that's really important,
• 4:27
  and,
• 4:28
  uh,
• 4:28
  and prediction markets tend to do it better than anybody else.
• 4:31
  Last night we did have a major switch,
• 4:33
  and what prediction markets do,
• 4:35
  as I mentioned,
• 4:35
  is they react to information in real time.
• 4:38
  That's what they do.
• 4:39
  I'm trying to get better.
• 4:39
  By the way,
• 4:40
  I broke my elbow,
• 4:40
  and this is why one arm seems like it's moving and the other one isn't.
• 4:43
  I'm doing my best to try to get back in the habit of,
• 4:45
  of moving my arms around a little bit more.
• 4:47
  So,
• 4:47
  if it seems weird to you,
• 4:49
  it is,
• 4:50
  because I'm an adult and I fell off a bicycle.
• 4:53
  Uh,
• 4:53
  that's supposed to happen when you're 8,
• 4:55
  but you know,
• 4:56
  this is who I am.
• 4:57
  OK,
• 4:57
  so,
• 4:57
  uh,
• 4:58
  I,
• 4:58
  I wanna give you a big switch in what happened,
• 5:00
  uh,
• 5:00
  last night in the Senate.
• 5:01
  This is the market
• 5:02
  for the Senate
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  on,
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  uh,
• 5:04
  let's,
• 5:04
  let's look at Calci's market.
• 5:06
  Um,
• 5:06
  Calci is one of the big prediction markets,
• 5:08
  and you see here,
• 5:09
  this goes back to November 2024.
• 5:12
  Because the way the map was set up,
• 5:14
  Republicans were heavy,
• 5:15
  heavy favorites to win.
• 5:17
  Uh,
• 5:17
  if you go back to November 2024,
• 5:20
  things are going really well,
• 5:22
  and you have Republicans have an 80+% chance to win.
• 5:25
  You see a change there in around April of 2025 as
• 5:29
  it gets a little closer,
• 5:30
  maybe a 70/30 race.
• 5:32
  It sticks that way all the way until basically the end of October
• 5:35
  2025,
• 5:37
  and then it starts to narrow.
• 5:38
  You see that narrowing happening,
• 5:39
  uh,
• 5:40
  as we go into 2026,
• 5:42
  and it gets down to a basically 50/50 race,
• 5:44
  sticks around there for a while.
• 5:46
  And as we advance here a little bit farther,
• 5:48
  let's go down to like uh
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  it's about 58 41% chance there.
• 5:53
  Let's go to the month uh chart if we could here,
• 5:55
  Adam.
• 5:56
  Um,
• 5:56
  and you see here,
• 5:57
  uh,
• 5:58
  basically where it's been for a month.
• 6:00
  Uh,
• 6:00
  it's been about a 53-47
• 6:02
  race.
• 6:02
  Now that,
• 6:03
  what that means if you're new to prediction markets,
• 6:05
  Republicans had a 53% chance to win.
• 6:07
  Uh,
• 6:07
  the Senate,
• 6:08
  according to these markets,
• 6:09
  Democrats had a 47% chance to win.
• 6:11
  Now you might say,
• 6:12
  no,
• 6:12
  I totally disagree with that.
• 6:13
  That's what these markets are good for,
• 6:14
  because if you totally disagree with it,
• 6:16
  you can make a lot of money if you're correct,
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  right?
• 6:18
  Are you right or are you wrong?
• 6:20
  Do you believe what you're saying because,
• 6:21
  you know,
• 6:21
  you just have an argument with your friends,
• 6:23
  or do you believe what you're saying enough to put your money where your mouth is?
• 6:25
  The people who do believe uh enough to put their money where their mouth is,
• 6:30
  believe that now
• 6:31
  the Democrats,
• 6:33
  as of last night,
• 6:34
  are now the favorite to win the Senate.
• 6:36
  And it's a 54 to 46.
• 6:38
  You see that switch,
• 6:39
  you know,
• 6:40
  usually these things are pretty gradual.
• 6:41
  If you looked at that larger chart where we were looking at a second ago,
• 6:44
  you know,
• 6:44
  it narrowed 10 points over six months.
• 6:47
  This is,
• 6:47
  uh,
• 6:48
  this is a much different situation.
• 6:50
  You're seeing a really,
• 6:51
  uh,
• 6:51
  direct change,
• 6:53
  uh,
• 6:53
  in the markets last night,
• 6:54
  a flippening,
• 6:55
  if you will,
• 6:56
  happening,
• 6:57
  uh,
• 6:57
  in the Senate race for between Republicans and Democrats.
• 7:01
  Why did that happen?
• 7:02
  Well,
• 7:03
  markets will react to all sorts of different information,
• 7:05
  and they will price in things that you don't normally see in polls.
• 7:08
  In fact,
• 7:08
  they
• 7:08
  will react more quickly than polls oftentimes to information.
• 7:13
  But they also look at polls and say,
• 7:15
  OK,
• 7:15
  wait a minute,
• 7:16
  are we seeing something change?
• 7:18
  And one of the most influential polls that will affect
• 7:20
  these markets is the New York Times Sienna poll.
• 7:23
  It's a poll that,
• 7:24
  you know,
• 7:25
  look,
• 7:25
  you might say I don't like the New York Times.
• 7:26
  There's a lot I don't like about the New York Times,
• 7:28
  frankly.
• 7:29
  I think they're kind of awful on a lot of different topics.
• 7:32
  Uh,
• 7:32
  particularly in their opinion pages,
• 7:34
  but in their news pages as well.
• 7:35
  Their data pages are,
• 7:36
  I would say,
• 7:37
  a better part,
• 7:38
  uh,
• 7:39
  of the,
• 7:39
  of
• 7:40
  the organization.
• 7:41
  They do,
• 7:42
  their polling outfit is pretty good,
• 7:44
  uh,
• 7:44
  when it comes to polling.
• 7:45
  Polling has problems,
• 7:47
  we've talked about that a million times,
• 7:48
  I won't bother you with the polling rant,
• 7:49
  but when it comes to people who are actually
• 7:51
  trying to think out what are the,
• 7:53
  the,
• 7:53
  the problems with modern polling,
• 7:55
  hey,
• 7:56
  we can't get anybody on the phone,
• 7:57
  for example.
• 7:58
  How do you deal with that?
• 7:59
  How do you deal with the fact that we're getting
• 8:01
  Some people who just,
• 8:03
  are we just gonna get people who are responding to these polls who are just,
• 8:06
  you know,
• 8:07
  you know,
• 8:07
  nerds who like polls?
• 8:09
  Like how,
• 8:09
  how do we deal with these things
• 8:11
  now that we're in a situation
• 8:13
  where people don't respond to these things.
• 8:15
  This,
• 8:15
  this was a poll that was taken of 1500 people,
• 8:18
  um,
• 8:19
  and to give you the tone,
• 8:19
  to give you the idea
• 8:21
  of
• 8:22
  the state of modern polling today,
• 8:24
  they had to call
• 8:25
  80,000 people.
• 8:27
  To get 1500.
• 8:29
  That is how hard it is to get people on the phone right now.
• 8:32
  They called 80,000 people
• 8:34
  to get 1500.
• 8:38
  It's really hard to project these things,
• 8:40
  especially when you're talking about the minutia that we care about,
• 8:43
  right?
• 8:44
  One of the problems with polls is that polls are kind of trying to do something else
• 8:49
  than we want.
• 8:50
  What we,
• 8:51
  all we care about is who wins,
• 8:53
  right?
• 8:53
  Uh,
• 8:54
  when it comes to political.
• 8:55
  Now
• 8:55
  you can go a little bit deeper on prediction markets about how
• 8:57
  much they're gonna win by and who's going to be doing,
• 9:00
  you know,
• 9:00
  winning this county and that county or whatever,
• 9:02
  but generally speaking,
• 9:04
  What we care about who is who's gonna win.
• 9:06
  And what polls care about is just trying to get the information as close as possible,
• 9:12
  uh,
• 9:12
  especially if you have,
• 9:13
  assuming the poll is being done on the up and up.
• 9:17
  Polling has margin of error built into it.
• 9:19
  This is,
• 9:19
  I think a 2.9% margin of error,
• 9:22
  uh,
• 9:22
  in this particular poll.
• 9:23
  But what these polls are showing
• 9:25
  is something pretty consistent across pollsters.
• 9:28
  There's a couple of different things going on,
• 9:29
  but I wanna give you what
• 9:30
  this New York Times Sienna poll
• 9:32
  did.
• 9:33
  It's
• 9:34
  Largely responsible
• 9:36
  for the movement you saw in the in the Calci and poly markets last night.
• 9:40
  And the reason why
• 9:41
  is not just one poll,
• 9:42
  but it's been a really good week of polling generally
• 9:45
  for Democrats.
• 9:46
  Uh,
• 9:46
  here's the headline,
• 9:47
  Democrats gain edge
• 9:48
  as Trump drags down GOP
• 9:51
  new poll finds.
• 9:52
  Now,
• 9:52
  what you will get a lot of the write-ups if you are a conservative and you're,
• 9:55
  you know,
• 9:56
  looking at the New York Times with a skeptical eye,
• 9:58
  which I think is deserved in most cases.
• 10:00
  You will get the write-ups being,
• 10:02
  you know,
• 10:03
  certainly more negative on conservative candidates.
• 10:05
  That's fine.
• 10:06
  I don't care about that.
• 10:07
  The data is what I care about.
• 10:08
  Here's what the data showed,
• 10:09
  and,
• 10:10
  you know,
• 10:10
  again,
• 10:10
  you can believe this or not,
• 10:11
  but,
• 10:12
  uh,
• 10:12
  this is what it showed,
• 10:13
  and it's pretty consistent among all pollsters
• 10:16
  right now.
• 10:17
  Not
• 10:18
  all,
• 10:18
  but most.
• 10:19
  If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today,
• 10:21
  which party's candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district?
• 10:26
  Democrats,
• 10:26
  51%,
• 10:28
  Republicans,
• 10:28
  43%.
• 10:30
  This is among likely voters,
• 10:31
  we'll get to that here in a 2nd.
• 10:32
  51% to 43%,
• 10:34
  an 8 point margin,
• 10:35
  would put you in the general vicinity
• 10:38
  of the 2018 election,
• 10:41
  which was pretty catastrophic for Republicans.
• 10:43
  It wasn't a,
• 10:44
  you know,
• 10:44
  the party's gonna dissolve and the Whigs are gonna take back over bad,
• 10:48
  but it was pretty bad.
• 10:49
  Uh,
• 10:49
  if you remember,
• 10:50
  uh,
• 10:51
  Democrats,
• 10:51
  uh,
• 10:51
  were able to take control and gain tons and tons of seats in both,
• 10:54
  uh,
• 10:54
  in both,
• 10:55
  uh,
• 10:55
  houses.
• 10:56
  This is kind of what,
• 10:57
  uh,
• 10:58
  the situation was in 2018.
• 11:00
  If you remember,
• 11:00
  you had Donald Trump come in in 2016.
• 11:03
  2018 was his first midterm.
• 11:05
  We talked about this a little bit yesterday.
• 11:06
  I won't go too much into it,
• 11:07
  but history tells you this is a pretty normal thing,
• 11:10
  right,
• 11:10
  where the party in power loses
• 11:12
  in these midterms.
• 11:13
  It's happened in almost all cases.
• 11:15
  It's very,
• 11:16
  very consistent throughout history.
• 11:18
  But the question is,
• 11:19
  do you have a little bit of a bump,
• 11:20
  or is it a real catastrophe?
• 11:22
  An 8 point margin in the gene,
• 11:24
  it's they call it the generic ballot,
• 11:26
  which is basically just,
• 11:27
  hey,
• 11:27
  Republican or Democrat,
• 11:28
  what do you think?
• 11:29
  Generically not thinking about the candidates,
• 11:31
  just generic vibes.
• 11:32
  An 8 point margin is the type of margin that will lead to really,
• 11:36
  really bad outcomes
• 11:37
  for,
• 11:38
  uh,
• 11:38
  Republicans.
• 11:39
  If they lose by 8 or 9 points
• 11:41
  in that general,
• 11:42
  uh,
• 11:42
  generic
• 11:44
  ballot vote
• 11:45
  when it comes to November,
• 11:46
  Republicans will almost definitely
• 11:48
  lose the Senate.
• 11:49
  It's not guaranteed.
• 11:51
  But almost definitely will lose the Senate.
• 11:54
  That's very reflective of what will happen.
• 11:56
  The house will be
• 11:58
  gone almost immediately with those sorts of numbers.
• 12:00
  Those numbers can be changed.
• 12:02
  A poll,
• 12:03
  you know,
• 12:03
  if you say like,
• 12:04
  well,
• 12:04
  that poll's wrong because
• 12:05
  in November they only lost the generic vote by 4 points or they won the generic vote.
• 12:10
  Polls are only trying to tell you what the vibe is now.
• 12:13
  They're not trying to tell you what's happening in November.
• 12:16
  They're trying to tell you
• 12:17
  if the election were held today,
• 12:18
  which it is not,
• 12:19
  this is where we think the American people are.
• 12:23
  That's important.
• 12:24
  What's also important though is why these numbers are like this.
• 12:28
  Why do they look like this?
• 12:30
  The Times asked a bunch of questions about policies,
• 12:32
  and honestly
• 12:33
  some of them are catastrophic.
• 12:35
  Some of them are catastrophic for different reasons though.
• 12:38
  Let me give you the breakdown here.
• 12:39
  Regardless of how you might vote,
• 12:40
  please tell me which
• 12:41
  party you trust to do a better job handling each of the following.
• 12:45
  Here's a bunch of issues for you.
• 12:46
  Healthcare.
• 12:47
  Democrats always win healthcare.
• 12:48
  I don't understand why
• 12:49
  there
• 12:51
  it just,
• 12:51
  it just seems like it's just tied to the party,
• 12:53
  right?
• 12:53
  And I don't know why they won this by 24 points.
• 12:56
  Uh,
• 12:57
  their
• 12:57
  main healthcare achievement has been a disaster
• 13:01
  to,
• 13:01
  to,
• 13:01
  to the extent that they had to go and yell at everybody
• 13:04
  to tell you why they needed additional subsidies from the policy that they passed.
• 13:10
  They,
• 13:10
  they started arguing to the American people,
• 13:12
  if we don't get more money than we asked for initially,
• 13:16
  everything's gonna collapse,
• 13:17
  which is basically telling you that the policy that they passed leads to collapse,
• 13:21
  and yet they still win by 24 points.
• 13:23
  Why?
• 13:24
  I have no idea.
• 13:25
  That's just a side rant,
• 13:26
  has nothing to do with prediction markets,
• 13:28
  but sidebar,
• 13:29
  Your Honor,
• 13:30
  I had to get it out.
• 13:31
  Immigration.
• 13:33
  This is really,
• 13:34
  really important.
• 13:35
  Immigration is one that Donald Trump usually wins.
• 13:38
  He won it
• 13:39
  throughout his first term,
• 13:40
  and he won it in 2024 to get back into the White House.
• 13:43
  The fact that he's losing this by 7 points,
• 13:45
  if this poll is accurate,
• 13:47
  is really,
• 13:48
  really bad.
• 13:49
  Not the worst thing that we will find in this poll,
• 13:51
  but really,
• 13:51
  really bad.
• 13:52
  The deficit,
• 13:53
  uh,
• 13:53
  the Democrats,
• 13:54
  how could the Democrats lead on the deficit?
• 13:56
  I mean,
• 13:56
  it's as if people have never thought about any
• 13:58
  of these issues before they were asked these questions.
• 14:00
  I don't know,
• 14:00
  but
• 14:01
  Uh,
• 14:01
  5141,
• 14:02
  10 point deficit.
• 14:03
  And that look,
• 14:03
  the Republicans suck on the deficit too,
• 14:05
  but
• 14:05
  I don't know how the Democrats' approach could be any better.
• 14:08
  The economy,
• 14:08
  uh,
• 14:09
  5145.
• 14:10
  Again,
• 14:11
  two of the reasons why Donald Trump is president today
• 14:13
  are on your screen right now,
• 14:15
  immigration
• 14:16
  and the economy.
• 14:17
  The fact that he's losing
• 14:18
  in both of those categories is a really bad sign when it comes to November.
• 14:22
  Now,
• 14:22
  I'm not gonna give you all downers here.
• 14:24
  Um,
• 14:25
  you know,
• 14:25
  uh,
• 14:25
  throughout this,
• 14:26
  this is not a show that just leads
• 14:28
  you to be,
• 14:29
  uh,
• 14:29
  into a deep depression,
• 14:30
  so you jump off a building.
• 14:31
  That's not what I'm attempting to do.
• 14:32
  If you happen to be conservative.
• 14:34
  You still got time here,
• 14:35
  but time is running out.
• 14:37
  Um,
• 14:38
  cost of living,
• 14:38
  again,
• 14:39
  same type of thing.
• 14:40
  This is why Donald Trump is president right now,
• 14:42
  and now he's a -8
• 14:43
  on cost of living.
• 14:44
  Foreign wars,
• 14:45
  again,
• 14:45
  a typical topic that a Republican would,
• 14:48
  uh,
• 14:48
  would win unless you are in a,
• 14:50
  uh,
• 14:51
  a situation that's kind of considered to be
• 14:53
  Quagmire-ish,
• 14:54
  if you will,
• 14:55
  a 7 point lead for Democrats.
• 14:57
  Israel,
• 14:58
  Palestine,
• 14:58
  an 11 point lead for Democrats.
• 15:01
  And the only issue of the 8 where Republicans,
• 15:04
  or was it 8 or 9
• 15:05
  that Republicans ate,
• 15:06
  um,
• 15:07
  the only
• 15:08
  one of the 8 where Republicans lead is artificial intelligence,
• 15:10
  which is kind of fascinating in that.
• 15:13
  I don't think
• 15:15
  Donald Trump's base
• 15:16
  really agrees with him on artificial intelligence.
• 15:19
  It's one of those issues where Donald Trump has been really,
• 15:21
  really aggressive
• 15:22
  and really industry friendly
• 15:24
  when it comes to AI,
• 15:26
  um,
• 15:26
  data centers,
• 15:27
  all those things.
• 15:27
  They're not very popular right now,
• 15:29
  um,
• 15:29
  but,
• 15:30
  uh,
• 15:31
  that's one where Republicans are winning.
• 15:33
  And by the way,
• 15:34
  is one of the reasons why the economy is not
• 15:36
  doing as poorly as I think a lot of people
• 15:38
  perceive when you're talking about top line numbers,
• 15:40
  the expansion of AI.
• 15:42
  Has been really,
• 15:43
  really positive,
• 15:43
  at least short term
• 15:45
  for the economy.
• 15:45
  We'll see what that plays out long term.
• 15:47
  Maybe we'll get into that on a future show.
• 15:49
  One last,
• 15:49
  uh,
• 15:49
  one last part of this poll I wanted to highlight,
• 15:51
  these are all,
• 15:52
  by the way,
• 15:52
  taken between September 8th and 13th,
• 15:54
  so it's very recent.
• 15:55
  In general,
• 15:55
  would you rather vote for a candidate who supports Trump
• 15:58
  or wants to provide a check on Trump,
• 16:00
  or does not matter either way?
• 16:03
  What you see here is some kind of scary numbers
• 16:05
  for the Republican Party.
• 16:06
  49% say they want a check on Trump.
• 16:09
  Only 26% say they want a candidate that supports Trump.
• 16:12
  Even maybe more
• 16:14
  surprising
• 16:14
  is the fact that the two top lines.
• 16:17
  Obviously you expect no Democrats are going
• 16:18
  to want a candidate that supports Trump.
• 16:20
  You get that.
• 16:21
  But independents,
• 16:22
  he's losing 59% to 13%.
• 16:24
  That's really,
• 16:24
  really rough.
• 16:25
  And almost as concerning
• 16:27
  is the fact that Republicans
• 16:30
  say that only 66%.
• 16:32
  Uh,
• 16:32
  want a candidate that supports Trump.
• 16:34
  That is concerning for Republicans because that number,
• 16:38
  when you're talking about your own party,
• 16:40
  this is a president they got elected very recently,
• 16:43
  uh,
• 16:43
  only 2/3 of your own party is not a good number.
• 16:46
  I mean,
• 16:46
  you know,
• 16:47
  you,
• 16:47
  you,
• 16:47
  you,
• 16:48
  you can find those numbers through history,
• 16:49
  they're usually not good outcomes for presidents.
• 16:51
  Now,
• 16:51
  Trump has never had the greatest approval rating.
• 16:54
  He's had a great approval rating among Republicans most of his run.
• 16:57
  But typically his approval rating has been in the low 40s and high 30s,
• 17:01
  um,
• 17:01
  and sometimes in the mid-40s.
• 17:03
  Right now,
• 17:03
  uh,
• 17:04
  according to this particular poll,
• 17:05
  it's in the high 30s.
• 17:06
  I think 38% is where he is.
• 17:08
  It's very difficult to win midterm elections when you have a president
• 17:11
  of your party that has a 38% approval rating.
• 17:14
  It doesn't really matter
• 17:16
  for our purposes at least
• 17:18
  why that is,
• 17:19
  right?
• 17:19
  You know,
• 17:20
  I think his,
• 17:21
  I would say the Iran war,
• 17:23
  it's not something that's popular,
• 17:24
  was never really sold to the American people so they could get on board for it.
• 17:27
  I think there's been some good outcomes from that
• 17:29
  effort,
• 17:30
  but
• 17:31
  It wasn't really a sales process.
• 17:32
  I think that's part of it.
• 17:33
  You also have a situation as well,
• 17:35
  where,
• 17:36
  uh,
• 17:37
  you know,
• 17:37
  tariffs were kind of a lead.
• 17:39
  If you think about,
• 17:40
  um,
• 17:41
  the first term of Donald Trump,
• 17:42
  he talked about tariffs sometimes,
• 17:43
  but his lead was getting rid of regulation and,
• 17:46
  uh,
• 17:47
  cutting taxes and,
• 17:48
  uh,
• 17:48
  and,
• 17:48
  and doing those types of things.
• 17:50
  With the second term of Trump,
• 17:52
  he did do the big beautiful bill,
• 17:54
  which
• 17:55
  basically just reinstated the tax cuts he had previously passed,
• 17:58
  which by the way,
• 17:58
  was very,
• 17:59
  very important and needed to be done,
• 18:01
  but wasn't necessarily exciting
• 18:03
  to your undecided voters.
• 18:05
  And then,
• 18:05
  you know,
• 18:06
  his big pitch was tariffs,
• 18:07
  and whether you think tariffs are good or bad long term,
• 18:09
  we haven't seen any real job gains from them yet.
• 18:12
  Maybe we will someday.
• 18:13
  Uh,
• 18:13
  but they're obviously associated with higher prices
• 18:15
  because they are taxed on imports,
• 18:17
  and if you buy imports,
• 18:18
  uh,
• 18:19
  you know,
• 18:19
  about 10% of our economy is imported goods.
• 18:21
  We won't go through the whole tariff scenario,
• 18:24
  but
• 18:25
  That he likes tariffs more than the American people like tariffs.
• 18:28
  And the fact that he led with that argument
• 18:30
  does lead to uh questions about whether
• 18:33
  he's,
• 18:33
  uh,
• 18:34
  managing the economy the right way.
• 18:36
  Tariffs are only a small part of it,
• 18:37
  uh,
• 18:38
  but it is a big,
• 18:39
  it was a big emphasis.
• 18:41
  I think if he had emphasized some of his other policies that by the way,
• 18:44
  he is doing,
• 18:45
  and I think are helping the economy,
• 18:46
  I think we could have been in a better place when it comes to these polls.
• 18:49
  Now,
• 18:50
  I,
• 18:50
  I bring all this up because
• 18:52
  We are in a situation here where you,
• 18:54
  you look at the kind of Overton window of outcomes when it comes to this election.
• 18:59
  You kind of have everything from in your Overton window,
• 19:02
  everything from a small
• 19:04
  Republican victory where they hold on to the Senate and maybe a chance at the house,
• 19:09
  all the way to the other side,
• 19:10
  which are kind of catastrophic for Republicans,
• 19:13
  where you're talking about maybe 52.
• 19:15
  53,
• 19:15
  54 senators
• 19:17
  on the Democratic side.
• 19:18
  I think this week
• 19:20
  we will go through the entire Senate board
• 19:22
  and give you a picture
• 19:23
  as to where we are,
• 19:25
  what control looks like,
• 19:27
  what is the likelihood of that of control
• 19:28
  going to Democrats or staying with Republicans.
• 19:31
  We'll go through that right now.
• 19:32
  One of the things we built on PredictableShow.com is a way
• 19:35
  for you to understand what all these experts are doing,
• 19:37
  because that's just one poll.
• 19:38
  There are other pollsters.
• 19:40
  There are pollsters telling you
• 19:41
  the opposite,
• 19:42
  that it's much,
• 19:43
  much closer.
• 19:43
  Republicans have had some good polls.
• 19:45
  In fact,
• 19:46
  even in recent days,
• 19:47
  uh,
• 19:47
  they've seen some polls with really,
• 19:49
  uh,
• 19:49
  positive outcomes.
• 19:50
  Uh,
• 19:51
  I mentioned,
• 19:51
  uh,
• 19:52
  we did a candidate of the day,
• 19:54
  um,
• 19:55
  previously,
• 19:55
  last week I think it was,
• 19:57
  uh,
• 19:57
  with Greg Abbott.
• 19:58
  And one of the reasons why I like that race is
• 20:00
  it's only about an 80% chance for Greg Abbott to win
• 20:03
  in Texas,
• 20:04
  uh,
• 20:05
  which would give you about a 25% profit in 50 days if he were to win.
• 20:09
  A Republican governor,
• 20:11
  he's a three-term governor already,
• 20:12
  going for his fourth term.
• 20:13
  Um,
• 20:14
  it's obviously a Republican state.
• 20:16
  Typically,
• 20:17
  the Senate race is much more questionable,
• 20:19
  but there's profits to be found,
• 20:21
  and that's why we look at these things,
• 20:23
  not necessarily as gambling with a bunch of bigger long shots.
• 20:25
  We look at these
• 20:26
  as real investment outcomes
• 20:28
  that we can get some actual profits,
• 20:30
  uh,
• 20:30
  on races like this.
• 20:32
  A good,
• 20:32
  uh,
• 20:32
  you know,
• 20:33
  the reason I lead up to Greg Abbott is he had a good poll come out for him
• 20:36
  by a respected pollster,
• 20:38
  where I think he was up 8 points.
• 20:39
  Um,
• 20:40
  so he's got a little bit of margin there,
• 20:42
  but there have been polls
• 20:43
  showing it closer.
• 20:44
  One of the things we built was a way for you to try to understand all of this data.
• 20:49
  To be clear,
• 20:50
  this,
• 20:51
  the predictable market consensus,
• 20:53
  which is our election model for the midterms,
• 20:56
  is not my opinion.
• 20:57
  I
• 20:58
  have literally
• 20:59
  no,
• 21:01
  I have no factor on this at all.
• 21:03
  I don't even
• 21:04
  include myself as one of the market participants here.
• 21:08
  What we do with this is we take
• 21:10
  all of the election data from the New York Times poll,
• 21:13
  everything there to all the pollsters that you might know,
• 21:16
  Rasmussen or Trafalgar and
• 21:18
  all of them.
• 21:18
  We look at all of the polling averages,
• 21:20
  we look at election models that have been built by experts,
• 21:23
  and I will tell you those,
• 21:24
  I,
• 21:24
  I look,
• 21:25
  I look at them every day.
• 21:26
  They
• 21:28
  have a wide breadth.
• 21:29
  I mean,
• 21:29
  there's really
• 21:30
  diverse opinion here on what's gonna happen.
• 21:33
  You know,
• 21:33
  you have someone like Nate Silver,
• 21:34
  who is,
• 21:35
  I would say,
• 21:35
  very,
• 21:36
  very positive on the Democrats to win.
• 21:38
  There are other people more positive on the Democrats to win
• 21:40
  than Nate Silver,
• 21:41
  who's probably the best known guy who does this,
• 21:43
  these forecasts.
• 21:44
  There are other people that,
• 21:45
  uh,
• 21:45
  maybe not as well known,
• 21:46
  that actually think Republicans have a really good chance of.
• 21:49
  Winning the Senate still
• 21:50
  and are much more positive on that.
• 21:51
  So there's a wide verse,
• 21:53
  a wide diverse group of people looking at this and and
• 21:56
  looking at it in different ways with all the same information,
• 21:59
  the same fundamentals,
• 22:00
  the same fundraising numbers,
• 22:01
  the same
• 22:01
  polling numbers.
• 22:02
  They're looking at this and they're balancing their models differently.
• 22:05
  We built a model to kind of take all of their decisions and
• 22:07
  try to lump them down into one thing that you can easily understand.
• 22:10
  It's available right now for you at predictableShow.com.
• 22:13
  Let me show it to you.
• 22:14
  Um,
• 22:14
  it starts,
• 22:14
  it's called the predictable,
• 22:15
  um,
• 22:15
  midterm consensus.
• 22:16
  You can see it right at predictableshow.com.
• 22:18
  If you scroll down,
• 22:19
  there's a bunch of explainers here like what is this thing?
• 22:22
  How does it work?
• 22:23
  And how does it work with prediction markets.
• 22:25
  This is
• 22:25
  What this market says right now,
• 22:27
  Democrats have an 82.6% chance
• 22:30
  to take control of Congress
• 22:31
  and a 55.4% chance
• 22:34
  to take control
• 22:35
  of the Senate.
• 22:36
  Now again,
• 22:37
  with that last poll I showed you,
• 22:39
  if they get a Democrat + 8 + 9 type number in the generic ballot,
• 22:43
  their chances of winning the Senate is more like 70 or 80%.
• 22:46
  What the market is saying is we don't fully believe that yet.
• 22:51
  We're more skeptical of that number,
• 22:53
  55.4% chance,
• 22:55
  but as you see,
• 22:56
  there is a gap between what Calci believes,
• 22:59
  what Polymarket believes,
• 23:00
  and what
• 23:01
  this model of experts and polling averages and everything else
• 23:05
  believes
• 23:06
  that we look at that gap to try to find
• 23:09
  opportunities
• 23:10
  in these markets.
• 23:11
  We look,
• 23:12
  this is,
• 23:12
  you know,
• 23:12
  when we're looking for an investment,
• 23:13
  we're saying,
• 23:14
  well,
• 23:14
  wait a minute.
• 23:16
  Why is this happening?
• 23:18
  Who's right,
• 23:18
  who's wrong?
• 23:19
  Are the polling averages wrong?
• 23:20
  Are the experts wrong?
• 23:21
  Are the markets wrong?
• 23:22
  We want to look for those opportunities and where they diverge.
• 23:25
  So we do all that work for you.
• 23:26
  We load that with live data from the markets,
• 23:29
  so you can see this all the time.
• 23:30
  Uh,
• 23:31
  first of all,
• 23:31
  if you just happen to be a person who's interested
• 23:33
  in the elections and wanna know what's gonna happen,
• 23:36
  this is a great resource for you to come back.
• 23:37
  It's absolutely free
• 23:38
  in the House
• 23:39
  and the Senate.
• 23:39
  You can come back and check it out whenever you want.
• 23:41
  If you want to be involved in these markets and,
• 23:44
  uh,
• 23:45
  profit off of them.
• 23:46
  This is what we do here.
• 23:47
  Uh,
• 23:47
  I've been in prediction markets for well over a decade now
• 23:50
  and I've done very,
• 23:51
  very well on each and every election since then.
• 23:53
  Uh,
• 23:54
  we've done very well through the primaries,
• 23:55
  and I intend to do this in November.
• 23:57
  We've built a nice big bankroll so that we can go into November with nice profit,
• 24:00
  uh,
• 24:00
  availability.
• 24:02
  If you're interested in that,
• 24:03
  I would encourage you to become a premium subscriber,
• 24:06
  become sort of the part of the predictable posse,
• 24:08
  uh,
• 24:08
  at predictableshow.com.
• 24:10
  If you could bring that model up one more time,
• 24:11
  if you could,
• 24:12
  so they have the model and you can see.
• 24:14
  Um,
• 24:14
  where these,
• 24:15
  uh,
• 24:16
  these elections,
• 24:17
  uh,
• 24:17
  are,
• 24:18
  uh,
• 24:18
  and this is like the overall,
• 24:20
  if you scroll down a little bit,
• 24:21
  you'll get a graph of where things have been.
• 24:22
  You kind of see it's really diverging over the past couple of weeks.
• 24:25
  The last couple of weeks have been very good
• 24:27
  in the polls for Democrats,
• 24:29
  and these,
• 24:29
  these,
• 24:30
  uh,
• 24:31
  models have noticed that,
• 24:32
  and the predictable market consensus has noticed it as well.
• 24:35
  If you scroll down below that,
• 24:37
  if you're a premium subscriber,
• 24:38
  you'll get this as well,
• 24:39
  a Senate outlook
• 24:40
  with every.
• 24:41
  Single,
• 24:41
  um,
• 24:42
  state,
• 24:42
  you can click on,
• 24:43
  click on some state here,
• 24:44
  Adam,
• 24:44
  whatever you want,
• 24:45
  uh,
• 24:46
  whatever you feel like.
• 24:46
  If you see those load,
• 24:47
  there's Texas at 57.7%
• 24:50
  Democrats,
• 24:50
  they've had good polls there.
• 24:51
  Now give me one like,
• 24:52
  uh,
• 24:53
  give me one like South Carolina,
• 24:54
  for example.
• 24:55
  If you click on South Carolina,
• 24:56
  it'll it'll load up for you
• 24:57
  and you'll see that
• 24:59
  the market believes that they have an 82% chance
• 25:01
  of winning
• 25:02
  in South Carolina for the Republicans in that race.
• 25:04
  If you go down to Florida,
• 25:05
  you click on Florida,
• 25:06
  Ashley Moody,
• 25:07
  what's her chance?
• 25:07
  Winning
• 25:08
  that's at 84.4%
• 25:10
  according to the experts
• 25:12
  and you'll notice um uh if you kind of scroll down here a little bit more,
• 25:15
  you will see a list of all the markets,
• 25:17
  um,
• 25:18
  and,
• 25:18
  uh,
• 25:18
  and where that gap is.
• 25:19
  This is,
• 25:20
  this is what's interesting,
• 25:20
  go back up for traders,
• 25:22
  um,
• 25:22
  uh,
• 25:23
  right here.
• 25:23
  Uh,
• 25:24
  the,
• 25:24
  the markets see
• 25:26
  a 15.6% chance for Democrats,
• 25:28
  the model sees a 15.6% chance
• 25:31
  for Democrats to win in Florida.
• 25:32
  The markets do not buy that.
• 25:34
  Right?
• 25:34
  The,
• 25:35
  the markets think Ashley Moody is a heavier favorite
• 25:37
  than those models do.
• 25:38
  I tend to believe,
• 25:40
  by the way,
• 25:40
  I agree with the markets on this.
• 25:41
  I think Ashley Moody
• 25:42
  is a heavy favorite to win
• 25:44
  here,
• 25:44
  but,
• 25:45
  you know,
• 25:45
  there's some value to be made in that particular
• 25:48
  election.
• 25:48
  I believe in that case,
• 25:50
  That
• 25:51
  she's actually probably higher than 90%,
• 25:53
  which is where she is approximately on those markets.
• 25:55
  So
• 25:56
  that's where we are right now.
• 25:57
  You can get that at predictableshow.com.
• 25:58
  Would love for you to join there,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:00
  and check that out.
• 26:01
  There's a great community.
• 26:02
  We answer your questions.
• 26:03
  I was in the chat at like 5 o'clock this morning.
• 26:05
  I'm making eggs for my kid,
• 26:06
  uh,
• 26:07
  and,
• 26:07
  uh,
• 26:07
  and,
• 26:08
  uh,
• 26:08
  because one gets up long before the other one,
• 26:10
  frankly,
• 26:10
  uh,
• 26:11
  and I'm making
• 26:11
  eggs for my daughter,
• 26:13
  and I was in there answering a question,
• 26:14
  uh,
• 26:14
  uh,
• 26:15
  about prediction markets and the Texas election.
• 26:17
  What's gonna happen with Ken Paxton
• 26:19
  in Texas.
• 26:20
  I,
• 26:20
  I'm in there all the time.
• 26:21
  I don't love social media as much anymore.
• 26:23
  I like going to this,
• 26:24
  uh,
• 26:25
  sub stack because the questions there are great.
• 26:27
  The community is fantastic,
• 26:28
  and you can be,
• 26:29
  you can get involved in that chat for free or you can get the premium chat as well,
• 26:32
  as well as
• 26:33
  tons of other stuff,
• 26:34
  lots of great values.
• 26:34
  Go there,
• 26:35
  check it out,
• 26:35
  predictableshow.com.
• 26:37
  We have more coming up here in a second.
• 26:58
  So,
• 26:58
  if you're new to prediction markets,
• 26:59
  maybe you never talked about them before,
• 27:01
  thought about them before,
• 27:02
  and what they do is basically give you a price,
• 27:04
  a percentage chance of something occurring.
• 27:06
  There's a yes or no question and answer to that.
• 27:09
  And when you,
• 27:10
  you pick which side you believe is gonna come up,
• 27:12
  you can uh win actual money.
• 27:15
  Uh,
• 27:15
  you can profit off of these things.
• 27:16
  So,
• 27:17
  for example,
• 27:17
  if you buy something at 50 cents,
• 27:19
  uh,
• 27:19
  and if you are correct,
• 27:20
  it will resolve at $1.
• 27:21
  If you're incorrect,
• 27:22
  it will resolve at 0.
• 27:23
  And it's our job.
• 27:25
  Uh,
• 27:25
  to try to figure out how to get you on the profitable side of that.
• 27:28
  At least that's,
• 27:28
  I mean,
• 27:28
  I,
• 27:29
  it's honestly my job to get me on the profitable side of that,
• 27:31
  and then I say it to you and hopefully it works out.
• 27:33
  Uh,
• 27:34
  so,
• 27:34
  so far,
• 27:35
  so good.
• 27:35
  Uh,
• 27:35
  we do a candidate countdown every day where I try to feature
• 27:38
  a race where there's some profit there that I'm surprised is there
• 27:41
  or potential,
• 27:42
  uh,
• 27:43
  potentially might be going away,
• 27:44
  I think.
• 27:45
  In the coming days,
• 27:45
  you heard the news in this first block,
• 27:47
  and I,
• 27:47
  I don't sugarcoat this stuff just because I happen to be a conservative
• 27:50
  doesn't mean that I'm gonna tell you only good news about Republicans.
• 27:53
  Um,
• 27:54
  I told you,
• 27:54
  uh,
• 27:55
  I thought a race,
• 27:55
  Tom Cotton's race in Arkansas,
• 27:57
  where I thought there was value on a Republican candidate yesterday.
• 28:00
  We're gonna go the opposite way today.
• 28:02
  In New York,
• 28:03
  candidate countdown,
• 28:04
  49 days left until the midterms.
• 28:06
  Uh,
• 28:06
  who is our candidate of the day on candidate countdown?
• 28:09
  It is someone I am not a fan of,
• 28:12
  Kathy Hochle.
• 28:13
  In New York,
• 28:14
  and you might say,
• 28:15
  wait a minute,
• 28:16
  Canada Countdown,
• 28:16
  and Kathy Hochle,
• 28:18
  really?
• 28:19
  Uh yeah,
• 28:19
  uh,
• 28:20
  uh,
• 28:20
  look,
• 28:21
  Kathy Hochle,
• 28:22
  it's gonna be really,
• 28:23
  really difficult to unseat Kathy Hochle in this political
• 28:26
  environment.
• 28:28
  A win in New York
• 28:29
  for Republicans statewide needs to occur in the right circumstances,
• 28:33
  right?
• 28:33
  Where it is a situation where
• 28:35
  you have a particularly bad candidate,
• 28:37
  which
• 28:38
  Hochel checks the box on that one,
• 28:40
  for sure.
• 28:41
  Uh,
• 28:41
  you have a strong candidate on the other side and you have a,
• 28:44
  an environment that would allow a Republican to be competitive in New York.
• 28:48
  Now,
• 28:48
  New York has been narrowing.
• 28:50
  Especially when Donald Trump runs in races,
• 28:52
  he tends to keep it relatively close,
• 28:55
  um,
• 28:55
  and when in 2024,
• 28:57
  the margins there were closer than you would think.
• 29:01
  Though I will say
• 29:02
  I made a decent amount of money on
• 29:05
  Kamala Harris winning New York because
• 29:08
  it's,
• 29:08
  you know,
• 29:09
  there's always a good vibe on,
• 29:10
  you know,
• 29:11
  Donald Trump,
• 29:11
  he's made a big speech in New York,
• 29:12
  there's a lot of energy there,
• 29:13
  and he did get it closer,
• 29:15
  but still,
• 29:15
  there's so much more,
• 29:16
  it's,
• 29:16
  it's so much more of a Democratic area.
• 29:19
  I'm a guy who was born in New York.
• 29:20
  I want the best for New York.
• 29:22
  However,
• 29:23
  um,
• 29:24
  you know,
• 29:24
  I just,
• 29:25
  I,
• 29:25
  I'm not particularly optimistic that Kathy Hochle will lose this.
• 29:28
  Quick
• 29:28
  view of the markets here.
• 29:29
  This is what the Calci market looks like right now.
• 29:32
  And if you see here,
• 29:33
  uh,
• 29:33
  Kathy Hochle's at 91.3% chance to win.
• 29:35
  You might say,
• 29:35
  well,
• 29:36
  there's not a lot of profit there,
• 29:37
  91.3%.
• 29:38
  Yeah,
• 29:38
  I mean,
• 29:39
  it's true,
• 29:39
  it's,
• 29:40
  it's,
• 29:40
  you know,
• 29:40
  9%,
• 29:41
  uh,
• 29:42
  8.7%
• 29:43
  if you buy Kathy Hochle.
• 29:45
  Right now,
• 29:46
  uh,
• 29:46
  and you can,
• 29:48
  and she happens to win.
• 29:49
  Of course,
• 29:50
  again,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  one of our constitutional amendments is know your APR.
• 29:54
  That's a 7th Amendment to the predictable constitution.
• 29:56
  You can get that at predictableshow.com with kind of rules of the road.
• 29:59
  Know your APR.
• 30:00
  Well,
• 30:00
  you know,
• 30:00
  you're talking about less than 2 months,
• 30:02
  so
• 30:03
  an 8.7% gain in less than.
• 30:05
  Months
• 30:05
  is a nice gain.
• 30:06
  You're talking again near 50%
• 30:08
  uh APR.
• 30:09
  The other thing I wanna talk to you about is another constitutional amendment,
• 30:12
  which is the 15th Amendment.
• 30:13
  Check both sides of the coin.
• 30:14
  Can you scroll down a little bit here,
• 30:15
  Adam,
• 30:16
  uh,
• 30:16
  to,
• 30:16
  uh,
• 30:17
  the,
• 30:17
  um,
• 30:18
  the yes and no buttons at the bottom here.
• 30:20
  If you click on,
• 30:21
  uh,
• 30:22
  Bruce Bateman,
• 30:23
  back up,
• 30:23
  uh,
• 30:23
  he,
• 30:24
  Blakeman,
• 30:24
  he is the,
• 30:24
  uh,
• 30:25
  opponent,
• 30:25
  and you know,
• 30:26
  seems like a good guy and everything,
• 30:27
  but if you look at this market,
• 30:28
  click on no if you will,
• 30:30
  uh,
• 30:30
  it says no 92 cents,
• 30:31
  uh,
• 30:32
  there.
• 30:32
  If you click there,
• 30:33
  this is the order book,
• 30:34
  this is where all the shares are that are available,
• 30:36
  and if you kind of scroll down a little bit more,
• 30:39
  um,
• 30:39
  you'll see the difference here.
• 30:40
  Now,
• 30:40
  it's come up a little bit.
• 30:42
  I bought shares in this market yesterday at $90.2.
• 30:46
  So a bunch of people have come back in,
• 30:48
  I guess,
• 30:48
  and,
• 30:48
  and taken advantage of this,
• 30:50
  it's come up a little bit.
• 30:52
  Uh,
• 30:52
  anywhere in this 90 to 92,
• 30:54
  93 cent area.
• 30:57
  I think is real value.
• 30:58
  I like,
• 30:58
  I think Bruce Blakeman,
• 30:59
  probably a nice guy,
• 31:01
  would probably do a much better job,
• 31:03
  would
• 31:03
  definitely do,
• 31:04
  in my opinion,
• 31:05
  a much better job
• 31:06
  for New York than Kathy Hochle will.
• 31:08
  But this environment is incredibly challenging.
• 31:11
  One of the reasons why you're seeing this value still hanging around,
• 31:14
  and I don't think it's gonna hang around for long,
• 31:16
  uh,
• 31:17
  we've already seen
• 31:18
  2% of it,
• 31:19
  uh,
• 31:19
  evaporate in the night,
• 31:20
  apparently,
• 31:21
  so since we launched this segment yesterday.
• 31:23
  Um,
• 31:23
  here are the polls,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:24
  on this race,
• 31:24
  and one of the reasons is you're seeing some polls that are relatively close here.
• 31:27
  Hochel only leading by 4 points.
• 31:30
  Again,
• 31:31
  she's still leading.
• 31:32
  The thing I would draw your attention to is,
• 31:34
  where did this poll come from?
• 31:36
  It came from
• 31:37
  Bruce Blakeman,
• 31:38
  her opponent.
• 31:40
  You know,
• 31:40
  polls that are released by opponents have,
• 31:42
  can sometimes be real and give you good information.
• 31:45
  Um,
• 31:45
  and maybe this poll is closer than some of the other polls you see here.
• 31:48
  A Democratic sponsor had it at a 16 point race.
• 31:50
  Maybe it's in between.
• 31:51
  Sienna had it at 10 points
• 31:53
  not that long ago.
• 31:55
  Uh,
• 31:55
  I don't think Hochel is a good candidate.
• 31:56
  She is vulnerable to a challenge in the right situation at the right time.
• 32:01
  It's just this political,
• 32:02
  um,
• 32:03
  climate is probably not
• 32:04
  the right one for it.
• 32:05
  I'll just also point to you,
• 32:06
  Hochel is also going to try to,
• 32:08
  uh,
• 32:08
  buy,
• 32:08
  uh,
• 32:09
  this election.
• 32:09
  She's sending $200 checks to 8.2 million
• 32:12
  New York households right before the election.
• 32:14
  Uh,
• 32:14
  to try to win some votes there.
• 32:16
  So that is kind of where this is.
• 32:17
  I look,
• 32:18
  I'm not happy about Hochel winning here,
• 32:20
  but I'm gonna get paid
• 32:21
  for my pain.
• 32:22
  If she's gonna win that race and I have to deal with 4 more years
• 32:25
  of Kathy Hochel,
• 32:26
  I would like to profit off of it,
• 32:28
  and you can too.
• 32:29
  Uh,
• 32:29
  go to prediction markets and
• 32:31
  Calcipoly Market,
• 32:32
  wherever you go,
• 32:32
  and you can,
• 32:33
  uh,
• 32:33
  get,
• 32:34
  you know,
• 32:34
  89,
• 32:35
  maybe 10% profit here
• 32:36
  on a race that is,
• 32:38
  uh,
• 32:38
  a heavy,
• 32:39
  heavy,
• 32:39
  heavy,
• 32:39
  heavy favorite.
• 32:40
  I,
• 32:40
  I think it's a 98,
• 32:41
  99%
• 32:42
  chance that,
• 32:42
  uh,
• 32:43
  Hochel wins.
• 32:44
  And you can buy that at 90 to 92 cents right now.
• 32:47
  OK,
• 32:47
  back in a second,
• 32:47
  we have more.
• 33:03
  Every once in a while we like to defend the castle,
• 33:06
  and what does that mean exactly?
• 33:07
  Well,
• 33:07
  we've,
• 33:08
  the castle is prediction markets,
• 33:10
  and sometimes
• 33:11
  I just can't take
• 33:13
  the way people talk about them,
• 33:14
  and I can't take the,
• 33:15
  the discourse out there.
• 33:17
  I feel like a lot of people just really haven't thought of these issues.
• 33:19
  Some people have,
• 33:19
  but have different motivations.
• 33:21
  So we defend the castle against the invading armies
• 33:24
  with their torches of stupidity,
• 33:27
  because there are a lot of markets
• 33:29
  arguments that are made against markets that really just don't
• 33:32
  make all that sense and
• 33:34
  that much sense and honestly when you kind of go a little bit deeper into it.
• 33:37
  You understand why.
• 33:38
  Some of them do make sense on the surface.
• 33:40
  Um,
• 33:40
  I wanna bring up an argument being made,
• 33:42
  uh,
• 33:42
  kind of around the country right now
• 33:44
  by Mick Mulvaney.
• 33:45
  Now,
• 33:46
  look,
• 33:46
  Mick Mulvaney,
• 33:47
  I kind of like Mick Mulvaney.
• 33:48
  Um,
• 33:49
  he was a Republican congressman.
• 33:51
  I,
• 33:52
  he's like,
• 33:52
  uh,
• 33:53
  Mick Mulvaney is like Radiohead
• 33:54
  to,
• 33:54
  to me,
• 33:55
  really like the early stuff,
• 33:56
  you know,
• 33:58
  it got a little weird,
• 33:59
  frankly,
• 33:59
  you know,
• 34:00
  so that's kind of how I feel about Mick Mulvaney,
• 34:02
  no problem with the guy.
• 34:03
  Um,
• 34:03
  and he's,
• 34:04
  look,
• 34:04
  he's making his,
• 34:05
  his post-government career into what,
• 34:08
  uh,
• 34:09
  what he can,
• 34:09
  which is he's working at a website,
• 34:13
  um,
• 34:13
  and an organization that is basically designed,
• 34:16
  uh,
• 34:17
  to oppose prediction markets.
• 34:18
  That's what he's decided to do.
• 34:20
  So he wrote this piece in the Houston Chronicle,
• 34:22
  sports betting is illegal in Texas,
• 34:24
  prediction markets do it anyway.
• 34:26
  And,
• 34:27
  uh,
• 34:27
  he,
• 34:28
  uh,
• 34:28
  in there cites a poll,
• 34:29
  uh,
• 34:30
  that people think that,
• 34:31
  uh,
• 34:31
  prediction markets are gambling.
• 34:33
  Um,
• 34:33
  that poll was taken by an organization
• 34:35
  called the Gambling Is Not Investing Coalition.
• 34:38
  Um,
• 34:39
  you may also recognize that as his current employer,
• 34:42
  it's their poll,
• 34:44
  uh,
• 34:44
  their poll,
• 34:44
  the Gambling Is Not Investing Coalition.
• 34:47
  Now you might hear that and say like,
• 34:48
  OK,
• 34:49
  what's the approach here from the Gambling Is Not Investing Coalition?
• 34:52
  Where are they coming from?
• 34:52
  What's their argument?
• 34:53
  Like,
• 34:54
  and
• 34:55
  maybe there's an argument like,
• 34:56
  I just don't like gambling,
• 34:57
  it's bad for people.
• 34:58
  That might be you.
• 34:58
  You might say that that's that,
• 35:00
  and you might see this very much that same way.
• 35:02
  Uh,
• 35:03
  that's not how his
• 35:05
  organization sees it though.
• 35:08
  Because
• 35:08
  quite clearly,
• 35:09
  they are fine with gambling.
• 35:12
  They,
• 35:12
  in fact,
• 35:14
  all reporting indicates that the money paying for
• 35:17
  this organization are from entrenched gambling interests,
• 35:20
  right?
• 35:21
  Uh,
• 35:21
  and that is,
• 35:22
  uh,
• 35:23
  here's the website,
• 35:23
  by the way,
• 35:24
  that's what it looks like,
• 35:25
  you know,
• 35:25
  again,
• 35:25
  you can go,
• 35:26
  what you'll see in here a lot of times is like,
• 35:28
  First of all,
• 35:28
  a lot of mention of
• 35:29
  tribes,
• 35:30
  the word tribal
• 35:31
  on the website quite a bit,
• 35:33
  which is kind of interesting.
• 35:34
  Uh,
• 35:34
  and then you kind of go through and you see,
• 35:36
  uh,
• 35:36
  that,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:37
  they talk about responsible gambling.
• 35:40
  Uh,
• 35:40
  being regulated by the states.
• 35:42
  Now,
• 35:42
  of course,
• 35:43
  what does this do?
• 35:43
  If you happen to have
• 35:45
  a,
• 35:45
  a,
• 35:45
  a,
• 35:46
  a gambling organization,
• 35:47
  you're now getting all sorts of pressure
• 35:49
  from some of the same people
• 35:51
  doing some of the same,
• 35:52
  uh,
• 35:52
  or similar things
• 35:54
  on prediction markets.
• 35:55
  Well,
• 35:55
  what does that mean now,
• 35:56
  right?
• 35:56
  What does it mean
• 35:57
  for,
• 35:58
  uh,
• 35:58
  for your organization?
• 35:59
  Well,
• 35:59
  you know,
• 36:00
  they,
• 36:00
  they see it as a threat to their businesses,
• 36:02
  right?
• 36:02
  So
• 36:03
  they prop up these kind of
• 36:05
  Fakey advocacy organizations that go out and write op-eds all around
• 36:08
  the country and places like the Houston Chronicle take them.
• 36:11
  Um,
• 36:11
  what's interesting about this is,
• 36:13
  and I,
• 36:13
  I kind of like
• 36:15
  I love sports.
• 36:16
  I actually have no problem
• 36:19
  with a little bit of uh entertainment-based sports gambling.
• 36:23
  I I I I'm fine with that.
• 36:24
  I'm not,
• 36:24
  I'm not opposed to it.
• 36:26
  Um,
• 36:26
  and I like
• 36:27
  some of the companies that are,
• 36:28
  you know,
• 36:29
  frankly funding,
• 36:30
  uh,
• 36:30
  the
• 36:31
  Uh,
• 36:31
  the,
• 36:31
  uh,
• 36:31
  hits against prediction markets.
• 36:33
  I don't have a problem with that.
• 36:34
  I don't like,
• 36:34
  I don't think if you decide as an adult
• 36:37
  to go and spend a little bit of time instead of spending money on a ticket to a game,
• 36:41
  uh,
• 36:41
  which might cost you 150 bucks plus parking,
• 36:43
  plus,
• 36:44
  uh,
• 36:44
  food,
• 36:44
  if you decide
• 36:45
  instead you're gonna stay home and
• 36:47
  put a,
• 36:47
  uh,
• 36:48
  a wager on a game and it's entertaining to you in that same way.
• 36:50
  I don't,
• 36:51
  I don't
• 36:51
  frankly see
• 36:53
  why that's a horrible thing.
• 36:54
  Uh,
• 36:55
  your,
• 36:55
  your mileage may vary on that point,
• 36:57
  but
• 36:59
  What's interesting about this is
• 37:01
  it's not coming from opposition of people who don't think the
• 37:04
  idea that you should be able to wager on sports.
• 37:07
  It's very clearly coming from people who are making money wagering off sports,
• 37:10
  and you have to understand how prediction markets work.
• 37:12
  They work differently
• 37:14
  than,
• 37:14
  uh,
• 37:14
  than traditional,
• 37:16
  uh,
• 37:16
  gambling outlets.
• 37:18
  If you go to a prediction market and you put a position,
• 37:22
  you take a position on,
• 37:23
  um,
• 37:24
  on,
• 37:24
  uh,
• 37:24
  a sporting event.
• 37:26
  And let's say you blow,
• 37:27
  like,
• 37:27
  you know,
• 37:27
  they always talk about,
• 37:28
  oh gosh,
• 37:28
  these young people are coming into these things and they're losing all their money.
• 37:31
  It's terrible for society.
• 37:33
  I'm sure that is true for certain individuals.
• 37:36
  The data overall does not support that position.
• 37:39
  It does not support that tons and tons of young people are
• 37:41
  going in there and losing all their money and going bankrupt.
• 37:44
  I'm sure it's happened.
• 37:45
  Everyone,
• 37:46
  they can always find one or two people where this has happened to.
• 37:48
  The average person in a prediction market winds up basically breaking even.
• 37:52
  Um,
• 37:52
  but
• 37:53
  long story short,
• 37:54
  if you go onto a,
• 37:55
  uh,
• 37:55
  a gambling website and you lose $1000
• 37:59
  that gambling website
• 38:00
  takes your $1000.
• 38:02
  That is not what happens on prediction markets.
• 38:05
  Prediction markets are not incentivized to see you lose.
• 38:10
  What happens if you go in and you lose $1000 on a prediction
• 38:12
  market is they take a very small percentage of that in fees.
• 38:16
  They might make $20 or $30 or $40 off of that $1000.
• 38:21
  If you just leave and never come back,
• 38:22
  that's actually bad for prediction markets.
• 38:24
  They don't want you to come in here and get just absolutely slaughtered.
• 38:27
  It's fine for a,
• 38:28
  for a traditional gambling site.
• 38:30
  And I wanna kind of talk about it as gambling because
• 38:34
  One thing that we do here at PredictableShow.com.
• 38:38
  And predictable with Stu is to approach these things as
• 38:41
  financial instruments as part of our actual investment investment portfolio.
• 38:46
  I have,
• 38:47
  as I mentioned,
• 38:47
  I will occasionally indulge in a little sports gambling,
• 38:51
  uh,
• 38:51
  for entertainment
• 38:52
  purposes only.
• 38:54
  Uh,
• 38:54
  I usually lose when that happens.
• 38:56
  That has not been the case with prediction markets over a more than a decade
• 39:00
  timeline.
• 39:01
  It's not because I'm a magician.
• 39:03
  I didn't figure out some secret code here.
• 39:06
  What I did is I approached it,
• 39:09
  not as entertainment,
• 39:10
  but as something,
• 39:11
  and it is fun.
• 39:11
  I,
• 39:12
  I like prediction markets,
• 39:13
  I like talking about them,
• 39:14
  but I've been able to make consistent profit year after year after year after year.
• 39:17
  Why?
• 39:18
  Not because it's a,
• 39:19
  it's,
• 39:19
  it's gambling.
• 39:20
  It's because you approach it as investing
• 39:23
  and you make decisions
• 39:25
  with reasoned basis
• 39:26
  over a long period of time,
• 39:29
  understanding markets and understanding how to approach them,
• 39:31
  and you're able to do
• 39:33
  better.
• 39:33
  Of course you lose sometimes,
• 39:34
  that's all investing.
• 39:35
  I have tons of investments in my stock portfolio that I lose on.
• 39:39
  When we talk about financial investments,
• 39:40
  sometimes you lose,
• 39:42
  but the question is,
• 39:43
  can you profit over a long period of time?
• 39:46
  Consistently.
• 39:47
  You can't do that,
• 39:48
  at least most people can't do it,
• 39:50
  trying to gamble.
• 39:50
  It's hard to do that at the roulette table,
• 39:51
  hard to do that in sports gambling.
• 39:53
  Can you do it
• 39:54
  when it comes to,
• 39:55
  uh,
• 39:55
  prediction markets?
• 39:56
  I argue,
• 39:57
  and,
• 39:57
  and I know tons of people who say,
• 40:00
  uh,
• 40:00
  yes,
• 40:01
  and have experienced that.
• 40:03
  So that's how we look at it in a,
• 40:04
  in a more colloquial sense.
• 40:06
  When you talk about the,
• 40:07
  the actual mechanism of how this works,
• 40:10
  it's,
• 40:10
  it's,
• 40:11
  it's fascinating to even see these arguments.
• 40:12
  What country do these people live in?
• 40:14
  You know,
• 40:14
  if you look at something and you say,
• 40:16
  OK,
• 40:16
  well this looks like sport if it looks like sports gambling,
• 40:18
  it must be sports gambling.
• 40:19
  OK,
• 40:20
  well,
• 40:20
  that's just not how our society works.
• 40:22
  If I were to tell you right now,
• 40:24
  uh,
• 40:24
  to go and watch a movie,
• 40:26
  right,
• 40:27
  what would you do?
• 40:28
  What would you,
• 40:29
  you,
• 40:29
  you might go to a streaming service,
• 40:30
  right?
• 40:30
  You might go to Netflix,
• 40:31
  you might go to Amazon Prime,
• 40:32
  whatever.
• 40:33
  Or you might turn on your TV and you might watch it uh uh on,
• 40:36
  on,
• 40:37
  uh,
• 40:37
  on television.
• 40:38
  Or you might go to a movie theater,
• 40:40
  OK?
• 40:40
  There's a bunch of different ways to go watch a movie.
• 40:43
  There is similar processes,
• 40:44
  right?
• 40:44
  You might say I'm just going to watch a movie.
• 40:47
  But our legal system treats them completely differently.
• 40:50
  First of all,
• 40:51
  is the movie even the,
• 40:52
  even if you're watching the same movie,
• 40:54
  the exact same movie
• 40:55
  on Netflix and television,
• 40:57
  they're going to be different.
• 40:58
  One of them's going to be edited,
• 41:00
  and one of them's going to have commercials inserted to it.
• 41:02
  Some of them might be edited for time,
• 41:04
  for content,
• 41:04
  for all different reasons.
• 41:06
  Netflix,
• 41:07
  totally different experience.
• 41:09
  Netflix makes their money in a
• 41:11
  totally different way.
• 41:12
  They don't charge for commercials,
• 41:13
  and sometimes they do during sporting events,
• 41:15
  but,
• 41:15
  uh,
• 41:15
  when you talk about a traditional TV network,
• 41:17
  they're making money through commercials and
• 41:19
  they're making money through advertising largely.
• 41:21
  Um,
• 41:21
  cable networks are making money off of clearance fees.
• 41:25
  Netflix is making their money in a totally different way off of subscriptions.
• 41:28
  Movie theaters are making their money
• 41:29
  in a totally different way
• 41:30
  off of ticket sales
• 41:32
  and,
• 41:32
  and,
• 41:32
  and concessions and $45 popcorn.
• 41:34
  They're totally different.
• 41:35
  And because they're totally different,
• 41:37
  they're overseen by totally different government agencies.
• 41:40
  This is very,
• 41:42
  very common in our society.
• 41:44
  Someone who's been in Congress certainly knows this is true.
• 41:47
  There are 100 different examples.
• 41:48
  I could give you the same one for music.
• 41:50
  You can go on Spotify.
• 41:51
  You can go on radio.
• 41:52
  Are those the same businesses?
• 41:53
  Are they overseen by the same government entities?
• 41:55
  No,
• 41:55
  they're totally different.
• 41:56
  The CFTC
• 41:58
  has been given the power by Congress to oversee event contracts,
• 42:01
  and that's what these are.
• 42:03
  You might not like that.
• 42:04
  You might want that to change.
• 42:06
  If you want that to change,
• 42:07
  if you're Mick Mulvaney,
• 42:08
  maybe a better thing to have been doing was
• 42:10
  to be doing that while you were in Congress.
• 42:13
  As opposed to now when you're getting paid to do it by
• 42:17
  allegedly gambling interests outside of it.
• 42:20
  Look,
• 42:22
  as they say,
• 42:22
  go get your bag,
• 42:23
  whatever,
• 42:24
  but the point here
• 42:25
  is that this is a very common thing in our society.
• 42:29
  Things that seem similar are often overseen
• 42:31
  by different government agencies and have different,
• 42:34
  uh,
• 42:34
  different values associated to them and different rules associated to them.
• 42:37
  The same way the government can't stop you
• 42:39
  from buying Walmart stock in Texas,
• 42:42
  they can't stop you from participating in these prediction market contracts.
• 42:45
  Now look,
• 42:46
  the carts are gonna are gonna
• 42:47
  wind up
• 42:48
  Uh,
• 42:49
  fighting that out and we'll probably get a Supreme Court
• 42:51
  ruling eventually and from there on we'll see what happens,
• 42:53
  but
• 42:53
  that's where we are right now and it's important
• 42:55
  for you to understand the context of these arguments
• 42:57
  instead of kind of like these base level
• 42:59
  reactive arguments that we're seeing all
• 43:02
  throughout the media.
• 43:12
  We are almost out of time,
• 43:13
  uh,
• 43:14
  but,
• 43:14
  uh,
• 43:14
  thanks so much for joining us today.
• 43:15
  Lots of great things over at predictableShow.com.
• 43:17
  We'll continue the conversation.
• 43:18
  We do have a primary tonight in Delaware.
• 43:20
  We'll go through some of that over at predictableShow.com.
• 43:23
  Also just great value there.
• 43:25
  I think you'll like it.
• 43:25
  If you are new to prediction markets,
• 43:27
  there's predictable 101 kind of walking you through how to do these
• 43:30
  prediction markets.
• 43:31
  It's a free resource at predictableShow.com.
• 43:33
  The predictable Constitution gives you these trading rules
• 43:35
  that I I follow in my own life
• 43:37
  because they're mistakes that I've made in my own life,
• 43:39
  uh,
• 43:39
  over and over again.
• 43:41
  Um,
• 43:41
  at predictableShow.com in the resources you
• 43:43
  can get the predictable constitution,
• 43:45
  something that I trade the rules that I trade with every single day,
• 43:48
  they're there,
• 43:48
  they're available for you for free.
• 43:50
  The predictable market consensus,
• 43:52
  the PMC as we call it,
• 43:53
  gives you what we showed you today,
• 43:55
  House,
• 43:56
  Senate races,
• 43:57
  who's gonna get control,
• 43:58
  who's not gonna get control.
• 43:59
  You can see that for free
• 44:00
  if you wanna go elevate it,
• 44:01
  you wanna get a little bit deeper.
• 44:03
  You can get all the individual races as part of the premium
• 44:06
  content that we have
• 44:07
  at predictableshow.com
• 44:08
  for premium subscribers.
• 44:10
  There you get
• 44:11
  not only access to that model and all the individual Senate races,
• 44:15
  you also get a premium chat.
• 44:16
  You get
• 44:17
  special live streams.
• 44:18
  You get a live stream every day of us recording the show in advance.
• 44:21
  Sometimes you get a little bit of a jump on the
• 44:23
  markets if you get to see some of that content.
• 44:25
  And then in addition,
• 44:26
  you get every single position that I have in prediction markets,
• 44:29
  over 300 of them.
• 44:30
  Stu's picks available at predictableshow.com.
• 44:33
  We'll see you tomorrow.