Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Why the Stock Market is CRASHING [Do This Asap] + Stock Market News 04 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Why the Stock Market is CRASHING [Do This Asap] + Stock Market News 04 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and another blood in the street kind of a morning for stock markets across the world, particularly in the US.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: What does it all mean?
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: What should we be doing?
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Should we be buying the dip?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: How much lower can this go?
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Just a couple of the questions we're going to answer here in the next few minutes to basically give you the same kind of briefing you would get if you were working inside of a main bank or brokerage or something like that.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: That was my intention give you the best information so you can make better decisions.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: And let me share my screen with you.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Let's jump straight into it.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So why are markets actually crashing?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: We need to understand that.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: And how bad is this?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: And is this really all about tariffs or is there something else brewing underneath the surface?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand that.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: How low will we go?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: And I see the questions here.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: You know how is the market bottoming and what do we do now?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I mean this is probably the most crucial thing, right?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Something just happened.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Data Point just came out, really big Data Point that just literally nobody expected out there Not one bank, not one analyst, not one commentator.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: And what stocks should you avoid like the plague right now, because they're going to make you poor as a church mouse.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And what should we be buying?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Is there something we should be buying right now?
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I'll literally give you some ideas and then we're going to do a therapy session.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Well, I call it Q&A, but it'll probably be more like a therapy session.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Would these nine things be useful for you?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: If they would be useful, write useful in the chat or just write the number nine.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: That'll also do.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I would show you Winston, but he's abandoned ship.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Winston, come on, come on back, go to bed.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Go to bed.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Let's see if we can get a Winston cam on here to make ourselves feel a little bit better.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Apparently, not Winston.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Bed, bed, bed, come on.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Disobedient dog, this morning, the only place you can see him is right here.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: He's unfazed by the whole thing.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: His portfolio is apparently doing very well.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: He's mostly invested in tennis balls and snacks.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Now, in all seriousness, I'm going to show you and if you are a bit squeamish this morning, turn away for a moment.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Right, just turn away for a moment, because I'm going to show you the pre-market.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So what's the damage?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Amazon down 5%.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Tesla's down 4.6%.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Even big banks are falling, jp Morgan Bank of America down more than 4%.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Google, microsoft about 2% down, apple another 4% down.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Nvidia 3% down, meta 3% down.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: The selling continues unabated and I think it's important we understand these concepts here.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: So let's run through these, my friends.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Smash the like button.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I know it doesn't feel like a positive day, but you can do something positive here.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So why are we actually crashing this hard this morning?
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Well, as one of my Asia-based mentors messaged me this morning, if you haven't noticed, china just put a 34% tariff on all American imports and is controlling rare earth exports and is doing anti-dumping probes into certain American companies, mostly in the commodity space.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: What?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: What does this actually affect?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Mostly, what does the us sell to china?
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: It's not trainers or, you know, fashion or, uh, cars even.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: It's mostly, it's mostly agricultural stuff.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So it's uh, basically, you know your, your soybeans and your sorghum and that sort of thing, which probably goes mostly into animal feed.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I would imagine that's quite a lot.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Actually, there's really quite a lot of stuff going in there.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So the US agricultural sector is not too happy today.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: There are rumors there'll be bailouts for US farmers, but for the moment this is the story.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So markets not happy about this at all.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: How bad is this?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Well, yesterday was the 29th worst day since 1980.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Doesn't sound like, oh my God, it's the worst day ever, was it?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: But look, this is like a.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: You know what's normal Like.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: This is normal right.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: And this is what we had yesterday Sort of a real outlier.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: It's pretty freaking rare that the market's down 4.8% in one day Very, very, very rare.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So definitely not a good one.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: And well, how bad is it?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: The fear and greed index it was 11 minutes screenshot of this.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually gotten worse.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's now six or something like that.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at the only useful thing that CNN has ever done and drum roll six.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: It goes from zero to 100, by the way, so it's definitely extremely, extremely fearful.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Now, does that present an opportunity?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Yes, it does.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: What does Warren the Buffett say?
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: He says buy when others are fearful and sell when everybody is greedy.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Right Now is he buying?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Not that we know of as yet.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have to disclose it immediately, necessarily.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: So now, is it actually all tariffs?
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Not quite.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: There is something else out there which most people are overlooking.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: It's really weird that nobody's really talking about this.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, so the Federal Reserve prints money, right?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: That's what they've been doing Now.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: They've been shredding money for some time, and you can literally see that on the chart here on the left.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And as they're shredding money, guess what happens to the stock market?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: As they're printing money, guess what happens to the stock market, right?
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: So there is definitely that correlation there as well.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: They're just tightening the belts and that's making this worse, because there is a little bit less money flying about, and when money is a little bit rare, well, there is just a stronger impact than we had here.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So does that make sense to you?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: If that makes sense to you, put a one in the chat.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So I know that it lands for you, and I just explained it in a way that actually made some sense for you.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So the real question then, of course, is how low will the market go?
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: This is a screenshot here from Trade Vision, and in fact, I can open it for you in full screen mode, because that'll be much more useful for you.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: We've got the wrong banner down there the support line.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, lots of ones, brilliant.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Just so you understand.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: There is something a bit more deep-rooted here than just the temporary tariff thing.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Just so you understand, there is something a bit more deep-rooted here than just the temporary tariff thing.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: The support line was at 540.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: At that point we know that market makers, hedge funds, had to buy some S&P to kind of offset their impositions.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It's called hedging, it's a little complex, but that's what they have to do.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: But right now we're trading at 525 pre-market.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: So we've dropped 15 dollars lower, which is an even bigger gap than the one from yesterday.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: All right, let me see if I can illustrate that with a with a little box here.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So this was yesterday's gap down, right, and today's gap down looks like it's.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Am I allowed to draw that box?
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: No, it says.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: It says do not draw this box, um, why not?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, you get the idea right so that the second box is meant to be that size.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Okay, so it's, it's, it's.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: It's a bigger gap, although, as I drew it, um, it's actually only till that.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So, but it's still, it's a slightly bigger gap down than yesterday.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So this is definitely not slowing down.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Uh, it is not the buy the dip moment, my friends, when you gap down on the S and P index in the morning.