Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / QB Convos, Controversies & Conspiracies | NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Transcript

QB Convos, Controversies & Conspiracies | NFL Week 12 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The Crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. Happy Thursday, Week twelve has arrived. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: joined by your two faves and my two faves, the
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky and the Queen of
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: the Pod.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Miss Kendra Middleton.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Will hear from them momentarily on today's episode, will submit
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: our official plays of the week. We've got our stat
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: of the day, two Kings and a Queen parlay Kendra's
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: prop action or distraction, the football talk that he came for,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: and hopefully we deliver some wins along the way. Let's
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: kick things off with Evan Abrams shrimply unbelievable stat of
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the week, straight from the primer. JJ McCarthy has been awful,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: and it's difficult for me to quantify just how bad
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: he's been, but Evan does a really nice job here.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: J McCarthy seven of twenty three passing. That's thirty percent
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: on third and fourth downs with five yards to go
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: or less. Thirty quarterbacks have twenty plus pass attempts in
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: that spot this year. The closest to McCarthy on the
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: off on this scale is Jaden Daniels, who we haven't
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: seen too much of this year at forty three percent,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: So we're talking about thirteen percentage points worse in those
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: third and fourth down and short situations. They play the Packers.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: The Packers can't cover spreads. They're three and seven ats
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: this year. I would love to fade the Vikings here,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: but I just don't know if I can trust the
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: pack with our money. Kendre, are you out on JJ
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: McCarthy already?
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: I talked about this on our show earlier this week.
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: I think so.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: Once he released this alter ego.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: Nine, shit really hit the fan with him, and I
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: kind of am okay with it. Once you come out
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: and say something like that about yourself, I think not
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: only is it fair for people to be like, all right,
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: but also maybe you should be like, maybe you shouldn't
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: have done that. And I get that it's like a
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: marketing thing or whatever. Maybe, but it just doesn't feel
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: like a good spot to be on either of these
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: teams because we talk about a week in and week out.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: It's identity, right, and neither of these teams really have
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: an identity right now. I and I think Stucky two
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: would love for it to be Max Brosmer season.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys are brosber Bros. Well, well you stucky,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: are you? This is a hard game to buy into
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: because you want to bet Packers can't bet the Vikings
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: with this guy at quarterback right now, he just can't
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: complete the simple throws.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Where do you land on that?
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, I'm out on them right now. I'm
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: still only a sample size of five games. It doesn't
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: mean that he can't turn it around. I mean there's
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: been countless examples of quarterbacks who are disaster in the
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: first year as a starter and turn around. He's right now.
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: He has major touch issues, like he has no touch
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: on his short passes, and then he has extreme mechanical
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: problems in the way that he's throwing the ball. I mean,
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: like your power has to come from your hips and
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: you when he throws to the left. There's a ton
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: of videos out about this when he throws to the left, specifically,
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: like he's locking out his hip and just trying to
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: throw it with his arm. Mean, he has a fifty
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: five percent catchable ball right throwing to his left. No
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: other quarterback in the NFL is below sixty nine. That's bad,
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: And like you saw it last week. There was wide
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: open Jefferson, a wide open Addison that he just completely
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: missed I think three or four times throwing to the left,
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: and he just has this like it's a mechanical flaw.
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: So that can be fixed. Maybe not overnight. They might
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: be an offseason thing. He generally has like the right reads,
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: but until I see otherwise, like from a betting perspective,
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: all I care about is the now, and like last
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: week was that was the game. You had to see it.
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: He was indoors against a really bad, beat up defense
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: after he played some tough defenses, and the fact that
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: it just wasn't there yet is pretty troubling. So I'm
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: pretty much out on him this year. It doesn't mean
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: he can't turn it around. I'm not a quarterback expert,
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: so I can't say whether or not that'll happen, but
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: for the time being, I'm out.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I think that we judge him more horsehly than we
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: judge every quarterback harshly.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: But I think we we.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Hold him to a different standard because most quarterbacks don't
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: start their NFL career with Justin Jefferson.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: I was just going to say that we had a really.
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: Good offensive line and a good play caller.
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and n quarterback whisper as a coach.
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah, he definitely is in a really good spot and
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: we've seen O'Connell do more with less, so yeah, but
• 4:56
  Speaker 5: it doesn't mean that he's cooked for his career.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: But it's probably be one of these guys that has
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: to go to another team in a couple of years
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: and that's when we'll see his resurgence, like the trend
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: that's been going on through the last couple of seasons.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: On the note of.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: Jordan Addison, though, I get that he hasn't had the
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: quarterback to throw to him that we thought maybe he would,
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: but I've also been kind of disappointed in how little
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: they do target him in the offense.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I wonder if it's just because his JJ's deep ball
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: is not there's nothing good and that's kind of where Jordan.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Addison, yeah, that's his Yeah. Yeah, we love this idea
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: from production.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: The Vikings should release JJ McCarthy and then and then
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: re sign him, so Kevin O'Connell can reh have a
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: first round quarterback.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: That's good.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I like that psychological game played with with JJ McCarthy.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So we have our plays that we're going to submit
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: at the end of the episode. Right now, we are
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: crossing that one. I think off the list of the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Packers favored by six and a half back to football
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in a moment. Time to delve into the weird, the bizarre,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the random. Let's get it over to stuff for a
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: random question of the week.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: Hey, this is a dumb question.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Is that is question?
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: All right? If sports disappeared tomorrow, all sports sports were
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: no longer a thing, all right? The Aliens came down
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: landed on Earth, took over everything, and banned sports, but
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: everything else is the same. What would what would you
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: be doing in a month? What do you think you'd
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: be doing in a month for work and versus what
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: you would want to be doing. So like your ideal
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: job realistic and obviously can't be like just probably be
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: the biggest movie star in the world or the quarterback
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: for the Vikings. So what would you what do you
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: think you'd end up doing and versus what you would
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: ideally want to do. I mean, I'll start, I probably
• 7:00
  Speaker 5: end up going back into finance in some form or fashion.
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: I used to. That's where I came from. Still have
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: a lot of you know, I still have my degree
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: CFA blah blah blah. So that would be the easy
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: jump down the line when I retire. Like the path
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: that I was on, I wanted to eventually become a professor,
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: but that's like way down the line. What I'd really
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: want to be doing now was open like my wife's
• 7:26
  Speaker 5: a phenomenal cook and bartender runs. Run a run like
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: a bar restaurant on in on an island somewhere. But
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: how about you brand them?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I think I'd become like an alien assistant at that point,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: you know, I think if they're coming down and taking over,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I'd probably work for one of them.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: You got to kind of get in where you fit
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: in a little bit.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: But I I can go in a couple of different
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: directions here because I graduated with a psychology degree. So
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: what I there's what I should do, there's what I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: would do, and then there's what I would love to do.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: So what I should do is, I don't know, become
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: a social worker, a therapist, like one of those things
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: where I can use that degree that right now, Like
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess there's some psychology in sports betting,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: not really using it, so that.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Went to waste.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: And what I would be doing is bartending, because that's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: where outside of this industry, I've made the most money
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: in my life and I'm a pretty decent bartender and
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: it'll pass lifetime. But what I would love to be doing,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: and I don't know if this would still exist based
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: on your rules of engagement here, but I always had
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: a dream of being a professional wrestler, and I don't
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: know if that counts as a sport. You know, you
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: would think i'd put more thought into that. I might
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: have to be a next week answer, but I would
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: definitely definitely consider that if that still counts. Those are
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: my three answers. I couldn't decide on one webout you, Kendra.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: I think the obvious answer would be just to go
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: back into news, But what I would never do that.
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: But what I would do, I have two answers. One
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: I would enroll in culinary.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: School immediately and like try and focus on like healthy food,
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: paleo food, like the Whole Vibe, or my friends and
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: I have joked about opening a nursing home for just
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: women and where you could buy like reserve like a
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: wing for you and your girlfriends because like, obviously the
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: birth rate has declined so much and women are staying
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: single and not getting married and having kids and like
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: all that stuff. So I think that I would open
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: like a nursing home for the girls.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: That might still happen. Stucky.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: It doesn't surprise me at all that Kendrick had a
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: fully loaded answer ready to go, Like it sounds like
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: she's already got a business plan for her answer.
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I don't mind, Matt that that that's gonna
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: be good business in the future. Nursing.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like nursing home for the gals where everybody can
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: just like get hammered and hang out and like talk
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: shit like that is.
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: That's the vibe.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: By the way, that this name a name generator for
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: pro wrestlers. You it said I in your name, but
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: it spit out Brian Royale with Cheese Miller. I don't know.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know why I think I can make I
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: think I can make that work. Maybe called me the
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: big cheese we scatter.
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: Bow, well fucking wwe.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: The other night we talk about that the tweets were crazy.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: Someone was like talking about how a week ago he
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: had his ankle up his ass and now he's fighting
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: at WWE with the squad.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I was actually where I have him in a dynasty league.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I was a little worried about him being out there.
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: For that, but oh man, that was good. His live
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: streams are also crazy.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: He did a showy of like an energy drink the
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: other night said he picked the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: I'm like, you know what, whatever.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Evan, what would you do? The Aliens eliminated their sports?
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: By the way, fuck the Aliens for this.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: Those really crow alien.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: I think that genuinely we are an alien child Sims
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: video game and they just don't mess with us. Because
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: when you walk by an ant pile, you don't just
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: kick it to kick it, like unless it gets out
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: of control, you don't do anything. You just let it
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: vibe and then when it gets out of control, you
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: just extinguish it. I think that we are an alien's
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: ant pile.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: That's an off season episode. Evan, what h what would
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: you do?
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: Uh?
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: Stocks, Weather and animals? Stocks, because like all I want those,
• 11:21
  Speaker 6: those would be the three avenues that'd probably take stocks
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: because I do it anyway. I already understand the game
• 11:27
  Speaker 6: weather because you don't have to be right all the
• 11:29
  Speaker 6: time and it's a great job, and I love animals.
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: So what would you do with animals?
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: Oh?
• 11:36
  Speaker 6: I mean I I mean listen, I know so many
• 11:39
  Speaker 6: people that have tried to be vets. Being a vet
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: is so difficult, the things you have to learn, like
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: the education in this. I'm just great with animals and
• 11:47
  Speaker 6: I love animals. So if you're pushing me down an avenue,
• 11:49
  Speaker 6: I'd probably end up going.
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: That avenue any like a pet sitter or.
• 11:52
  Speaker 6: Yeah, something I don't know, Like I try to get
• 11:55
  Speaker 6: education in it. There's a million different ways to get
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: into like trying to do it and making it a career.
• 12:01
  Speaker 6: But it's just if it's something you love and you
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: love like being with animals. I love going to zoos
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: in other countries, stuff like that. Like it would probably
• 12:07
  Speaker 6: be a direction I would had.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: You could be a cat breeder.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: There you go, Buck, you really got us going on
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: this one time to get into action or distraction.
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: This is distracted distract.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: I'm not stacking.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: I want it on the action.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Chador Sanders drawing the start for the Cleveland Browns Action
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: or distraction and auto fade on Shador Sanders. Whether that's
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: betting the raiders, whether that's betting his passing prop under
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: one fifty nine and a half.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: In case you were.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Curious, stucky action or distraction, autophage, chador action.
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: I mean I'm fading should or I don't think he's ready.
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: Everything I've heard, he's not ready. Everything I saw last week,
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: he's not ready. I mean, you go back to the
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: preseason game against the like fourth string guys. They didn't
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: bring anybody to that game in Cleveland, and he took
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: four or five sacks in a quarter. I mean, you
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: go back those last two games, his last two appearances,
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: he has thirty one dropbacks for negative seven yards. Thirty
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: one dropbacks for negative seven yards. He can't have all
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: the blitz, can't read a defense. He's not even that
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: fast to get away. I know the Raiders defense isn't great,
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: but they take away explosive places. They're gonna make the
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: Browns drive the field, and they're they're just gonna send
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: the blitz. They're not dumb, and I don't think she
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: door can handle it. So like the Raiders have been awful.
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: Their offensive line is awful, they have no running games.
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: Gino has been bad. I get it all, but I
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: have one quarterback who's like a serviceable NFL quarterback at
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: home and one who's not ready. So I'm going to
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: side with the one who has started games and is
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: an NFL starting caliber quarterback. And the Browns defense is
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: just not the same on the road. I don't know
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: how many times I gotta say it. I say it
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: every week. I bet the Browns last week. I bet
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: the Browns at home almost every time. I think they're
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: always undervided at home overvalued on the road. Now a
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: lot of that comes down to their defense. Over the
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: past three seasons. The most profitable team in the NFL
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: at home, it ain't the Lions and the degenerate Dan Campbell,
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: It's the Browns. There's sixty three percent against the spread
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: at home. The least profitable team on the road, it's
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: the Browns. They're five and seventeen against the spread on
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: the road twenty two point seven percent. They're failing to
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: cover by about a touchdown per game, so they don't
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: even close. Why is that, Well, their offense always stinks
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: and their defense isn't dominant as dominant as it is
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: at home. It's a different animal at home. So I
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: like the Raiders.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, twist my arm on that one, Kendrew, would you
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: rather attack this via the Raiders side, because I kind
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: of get the sense that you're we're in a show
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: agreement here or the prop angle of just going after
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Shador and maybe taking some wonders.
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: No, I'm all over the Raiders here as a whole
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: stucky a lot of what I was gonna say. But
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: also they've been a little inconsistent with their scoring and
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: who they've beat. There's really no pattern to if they
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: beat good teams, bad teams, whatever. I think that it's
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: more so that they're due for a win. Brown's on
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: the road. I think Shador is a bad quarterback. I
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: think his confidence has probably heard. I think Max Crosby
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: is going to have a career game this weekend. I'm
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: just all over the Raiders, and it's a spot for
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: them where they are due for a win. The Browns
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: have had their fun, They've beat the teams that people
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: didn't think that they would. I think that this says
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: Raiders all over it. So I'm gonna rock with the
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: Raiders this weekend. You can like, here's the thing. The
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: reason that I'm not on the Chador prop market is
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: because the Browns could still lose and he could have
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: a good showing.
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: It'd be great for the NFL.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: It'd be great for Josina Anderson, it would be great
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: for the storylines, it'd be great for the.
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: Money of you know, the Sanders comeback. He's gonna be.
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: Okay, blah blah blah, that he can play a good
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: game and they can still lose because of the defense.
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: So I don't think he's gonna play a good game.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: But that's the only thing holding me back is that
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: I do have my tinfoil hot on a little bit,
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: but I'm all over the Raiders here.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: Evan.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: I want to bring you in for this because the
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: betting percentages on the Action Network app are surprising to
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: me that I would think with the consensus that we
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: have on this Raiders Browns game, and we might need
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: to fit this into the parlay. By the way, this
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: feels like a pretty obvious opinion to fade a guy
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: that might not be ready for an NFL game. Eighty
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: two percent of the bets are on the Cleveland Browns.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Does that surprise you haven't?
• 16:35
  Speaker 6: But I was just going to say, like, he's the
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: most popular and polarizing person probably in the league, right
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: now like I think people who are gambling on him
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: are gambling on just like I want to bet on Shador.
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: Is it the right bet?
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: No?
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: I think I think we all kind of like the
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: Raiders in this spot. Truthfully, the angle I take in
• 16:53
  Speaker 6: this game is I look for like sacks between him
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: and Gino and the defensive lines on both sides. I
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: just assume that's why the total is gonna end up
• 17:02
  Speaker 6: closing at like thirty five.
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: Thirty five indoors. Yeah, there could be like twelve thirteen
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: sacks and again the Browns two. The reason I can't
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: play the under is just because I'm afraid of Like
• 17:12
  Speaker 5: I had the Browns plus eight and a half last week.
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: They were first half what about first half? Understuck maybe,
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: but I don't when do the short fields come, They're
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: gonna be pick sixes like I had for one quarter only.
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: I had the Browns plus eight and a half. They
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: were up six at home with a dominant defense, and
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: I was holding on for dear Low. I was like,
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna lose his bet and ended up losing by seven.
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: Because I should always gonna throw pick sixes. He's gonna
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: ge already's gonna get sacked for lost of sacked by
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: at the two yard line, a loss of twenty. Kyle
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: Hamilton did drop a pick six on just to basically
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: rolled out and tried to throw and it Kyle Hamilton
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: dropped it. He threw another awful pick. He fumbled once
• 17:51
  Speaker 5: on a sack, but the Browns recovered it like it
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: was as bad as I've ever seen it, and I
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: was just like, plea, it was the longest fourteen of
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: my life.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: I was.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: I just wanted the Browns to punt it on first down.
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: That's how bad it was. So like getting over thirty six,
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: it's not difficult if you throw, if there's a couple
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: of defensive touchdowns. But yeah, it's hard to see either
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: one of these offenses doing much. But it's crazy to
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: see a total. Is this the lowest total? Actually, there
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: was probably a total with it. I'm like, what's the
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: lowest total ever in an indoor game? We have to
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: do it?
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: Yeah, really, just you read my mind. Thirty six was
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: done in twenty three and twenty two Raiders Jets. Raiders
• 18:36
  Speaker 6: Jets in twenty twenty three was sixteen to twelve with
• 18:39
  Speaker 6: a thirty six total, and in twenty two Rams Broncos
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: was fifty one fourteen with a thirty six total. I
• 18:46
  Speaker 6: don't know how that was thirty six, but maybe was
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: that the Kendall Hinton game. I don't even remember what
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: year was that twenty two Christmas Rams Broncos. Was that
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: thirty seven?
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, they had that wide receiver for
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: those starting at quarterback.
• 19:01
  Speaker 6: Maybe I don't remember.
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: All right, well that was that was COVID year.
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: Something weird happened with that game.
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: That was Baker versus Ross thirty six? You sure you
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: have that right, I'll double check.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Is that when they the.
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: Rams signed Baker like the week before?
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: Maybe that's a crazy total though, And.
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: Oh my god, I forgot about that because that was.
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: At the end of the year.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Only have a revenge game Sunday night.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Both teams were awful. I mean they were like it
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: was four.
• 19:33
  Speaker 6: Yeah, that's that's a that's a thirty six. I see
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: a thirty six and a half on another site, that's right.
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: And what was the other game? Uh? The UH.
• 19:44
  Speaker 6: Raiders Jets twenty thirteen in Vegas thirty six and in
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: sixteen twelve barn Burner.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Notice a bit of a trend there. The Raiders involved
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: in these all right, we got stuck. We got stuck
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: on that game. But really good stuff there on Brown Raiders,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: very actionable for the audience. Aaron Rodgers trying to play
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: through a fractured wrist in his non throwing hand, Kendra
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: action or distraction on that being a big, big impediment
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: to your handicap. On this game between the Steelers and
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the awfully Lucky week after week Chicago Bears Bears minus
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: two and a half.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: We swore that we weren't gonna touch this game, and
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: I'm still kind of there. But the thought of parkoset
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers really is kind of doing something for me.
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: Because Aaron Rodgers off.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: A park we might get like vintage Rogers where he's
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: just like, you know what, I'm gonna go out there
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: and sling it because he's just gonna be.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: No thoughts just yet. Have you guys ever had.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: Surgery and taking a perkset, you really just your brain
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: just goes like numb, like it's just there's no thoughts,
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: no anger, You're just existing.
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: I'm like, purchase at Aaron Rodgers might be the truth.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure he operates like that on the regular.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: No he's a grudge grudge holder, like he screams at people.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: He gets mad, he yells. I think Perk said Aaron
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: Rodgers might just have no feelings for once, and that's
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: kind of scary in a good way for gamblers.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: So you're in on potentially the.
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: Fractured hand Rogers Alexa play Future.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: Let's talk luck rankings.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Unlucky favored teams are a strong trend in the luck
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: rankings that points the way of the Kansas City Chiefs,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: an unlucky team that it's favored by three. Nick Giffen
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: did mention in the Weekly article that he will not
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: be betting Kansas City because he couldn't get there on
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: the number, but that he will be cheering for Kansas
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: City to further back his luck rankings, but stucky action
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: or distraction on the Chiefs as a luck rankings by
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: for you, have you gotten to the window on this game?
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: I could maybe get there at flat three. For what
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: it's worth, I haven't had this. This nugget as the
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: fifteenth team since nineteen ninety to be five and five
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: straight up or worse and favored versus team with an
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: eighty percent win percentage in the They're eleventh game or later.
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: So five hundred are worse week eleven or later other
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: team as an eighty percent win percentage. This is the
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: fifteenth time that's happened. The other fourteen fourteen and oh
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: straight up twelve ozho and two against the spread for
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: the favored team. So yeah, I mean, like the Chiefs
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: definitely have been unlucky. They were lucky last year. They're
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: dealing with that regression this year in close games. They're
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: all in five and one session games. Last year I
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: think they were eleven and h and I mean, like
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: this is usually Europe. There's a tax. Like last week
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: there was a tax. That's why I couldn't play the Chiefs.
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: There was a tax on Like though it's the Chiefs
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: must win, there's not as much of a tax, especially
• 22:54
  Speaker 5: if this is a flat three. And Daniel Jones has
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: turned back into a pumpkin. You look at his last
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: two games, I mean weeks one through eight, he had
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: three interceptions, nine sacks and two fumbles total. The last
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: two games, four interceptions, twelve sacks, six fumbles, basically just
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: tripling everything. So Stags is gonna send them. But it's
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: one thing that's concerning is like how much like Jonathan Taylor,
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: how big of a game can he have? But yeah,
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: out a flat three, I think it's Chiefs or nothing.
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: If they lose this game, now, oh boy, it's trouble
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: for Kansas City. I mean, the division's already gone. They're
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: basically four and a half back and it's week twelve.
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: But the wild card, I mean they're basically two and
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: a half back right now because they're two back of
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: the Jet Like they've lost to the Jags, they lost
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: to the Chargers right that, they don't have any of
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: these head to heads, So like this game is an
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: and they lose this, then you don't know they head
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: to have with the Colts. So like, this game is
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: a massive swing for Kansas City season. And if they
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: lose this, I don't think they make the playoffs, which
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: is crazy to think about, but I think they might
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: be on the outside looking in, Whereas if the Chiefs
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: do win, I think they eventually will make the playoffs.
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: And if the Chiefs do win, gotta start talking about
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: the Jags and that division because they play each other
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: twice in December. Colts could lose again next week against
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: the Texans, and like it could be you could have.
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: It could be tied going into that. I'm scared of Jackson.
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: I'm scared Jags. The Jacks have the Titans and the
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: Cardinals the next two weeks.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Very interesting wrap to the Jags schedule because they very
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: much control their own destiny.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Kendra, anything on this. We touched on this.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Quite a bit on Tuesday, but anything else to add
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: to Chiefs before I got a doozy to wrap up
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: action or distraction.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: I need one more week to make my mind up
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: about Daniel Jones. I want to see him against a
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: good team, see how he does before I decide that
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: he's back to being old Daniel Jones. I'm cheering for
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs for obvious reasons, but they're in bet jail
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: for me, So yeah, I the Chiefs, the Chiefs, the Patriots,
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: and Lad McConkie are done for the year for.
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: Me, or at least until the playoffs out done and
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: sold over.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: This is my parole hearing for the Kansas City Chiefs
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: this week. I do have them in pocket at minus three.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: The Jags right now four to one to win the
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: AFC South. So a bit of a correlated play, believe
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: it or not that if you think Kansas City's gonna
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: win this game. That does create value on that Jags bet.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Something to think about. Jordan Hudson is apparently a competitive cheerleader.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Probably could have guessed that if you'd given me fifteen tries.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: She has a grumpy seventy three year old boyfriend who
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: went to watch her latest competition. Kendra, action or distraction
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: on that being the worst or the most down bad
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: thing that you have? Is that worse than the most
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: down bad thing that you have ever done for any
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: sort of somebody that you're trying to court or a
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: significant other.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not only a better question for Stucky, now that
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: I say that out loud.
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not in a beer league, cheer competition league, whatever,
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: But now I've done worse. I have absolutely done worse.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: We're gonna need that story, by the way, But Stucky,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: or do you have.
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: It if you want? My mom doesn't listen to this podcast.
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: I don't care for I'm not discussing go bel Chick anymore.
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: If he called a time out last week with twenty
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: seconds ago down nine for no reason and then wake
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: Far scored on fourth down to end the game when
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: they were just going to run off the clock, and
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: it cost me money because I either team total under.
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: I still have no idea why call that time out?
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: So he will not be getting any Christmas cards for me,
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: and I will not be discussing his personal life moving toward.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Yea, he's clearly got a lot on his mind.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's impacting his decision making across the board.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: But kendrack, go ahead, We're gonna want the story.
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: So in girl world, there's this like joke where the
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: worst boyfriend you have is when you're nineteen years old.
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: I have dated perfect little PhD nerdy brunette men my
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: entire life, except for the boy I dated when I
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: was nineteen, So I fall into the joke of the
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: worst man I dated was when I was nineteen. The
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: guy that I dated when I was nineteen got arrested,
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: went to jail for dealing drugs, dropped out of school,
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: quit the football, got kicked off the football team, and
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: moved back in with his parents and was on house arrest.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: I was sneaking in an out of his window at
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: night so that his parents didn't catch me coming over
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: while he was on house.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Like ankle bracelet nol. Yeah, oh geez, yeah, that's rough.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: Sorry, mom, please don't ever listen to.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: The show again. It's the trust circle. I was gonna
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: tell you that.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: I have dated like the nicest, most no not even
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: a speeding ticket boys.
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: Ever with that that nineteen year old boyfriend for some reason, just.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: At point it.
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: Was only like four months of dating because then I
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: was like, I can't be dating a felon. So he did. However,
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: when he got out of jail.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: The second time, got a burner phone and decided to
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: text me pretending to be one of the Patriots players
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: that I like did a story on that week. And
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: I was like, he was like pretending to be him,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: and he was like, yeah, sorry, I got.
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: A new phone. And I was like there's no way.
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: And then he text me and he was like, got you, bitch,
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: it's so and so.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: And I was like what it sounds like a great guy,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: just a swell individual. Hey, here how much shot.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: I sent his mugshot to my friends like when I
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: told them this story like later in life, and they
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: were like, you know what, I get it.
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: He's handsome.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: I was like, yep, you know there's more to life, Kendra.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: I do follow the sexy mugshots Instagram. If you guys don't,
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: it's a good one.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: And here I was.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I was going to tell you guys about the time
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: that I bought an easy bakeup and for a girl
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: that I had a crush on.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: But we move on. Still to come.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly parlay.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: But first a word from our first lady as she
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: chats about better friends at DraftKings.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sports book,
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: hundred back in bonus bets if your bet wins plus
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: three months of NBA League Pass. Stay in on the
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: action and use your bonus bets on DraftKings same game
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: parlays for a shot at even bigger payout. To get
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: started using promo code Favorites when signing up with DraftKings.
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: Again, use Code Favorites when signing up.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: And bet five bucks to get two hundred back in
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: bonus bets if your bet wins plus three months of
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: NBA League Pass.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: The crown is yours, Kendra, Talk to us, what Week
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: twelve prop has you in a pickle?
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: Okay, we're in.
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: A pickle, though I'm really in a pickle now, all right,
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: look we're gonna pickle again.
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: Hey, I have thirty seven different ways I could go
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: with this, And if you watched me fill out our
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: doc before the show, I filled out like three different things.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: I was gonna go with the t Higgins anytime pricing
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: because what is going on with Joe Burrow, Like they're
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: refusing to rule him out, refusing to say he's not
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: gonna play. I think it's stupid if they push him backerly,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: but obviously it's still a possibility. I don't think he's
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: gonna play this week, but I almost went there instead.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: I did some digging, and the yardage total for BTJ
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: this week is sixty three and a half.
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: He's averaged in the mid fifties.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: He's coming off an injury, can't hold onto the ball,
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: like literally, I think he rubs bacon grease on his
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: hands and gloves before every single game. I don't know
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: if this is so much of a pickle, but I'm like,
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: do I get to the window on the under? Just
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: because that's been his average and obviously he's been struggling.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: It's like I put this in our notes. It's like
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: expecting a nice hour pickle and getting a hot and
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: spicy pickle.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: But I'm still leaning the under. I just why is
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: this number what it is?
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: It's a good question.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: That is a high number for a guy that's had
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: a real case of the dropsies this year, and we've
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: seen him go over that twice on the season.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: I kind of love that sucky.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the BTJ prophing.
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: I got nothing. I'm trying to figure out if Barrow's playing.
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: I've been doing football morning. I didn't realize that this is, like, oh,
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: like this might happen. This is I don't know why
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: they're rushing their franchise quarterback.
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: Back because so musing himself back here.
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: I did a lot of research this morning, and it's
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: because it's their remaining schedule and to them, they could
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: probably still argue to themselves that the division might still
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: be in play let alone like the wild card because
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: of what's going on with the Chiefs and the Colts
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: may be collapsing and all of those like different scenarios.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Zach Taylor's quotes from the press conference were pretty insane.
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: Like it.
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: He made it sound.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: Like there is like a serious potential that he could
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: play this week, But I just I'm I'm an agreemance
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: with why would you rush him back?
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: One of the worst defen all and a bad offensive line.
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: But they're the face is suspended this week too.
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: They're the Bengals.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: They're fucking morons as a franchise, Like let's just let's
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: just talk about it like they are one of the dumbest,
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: dumbest like ownership, like everything, like if there is going
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: if you before the season were like, if there was
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: going to be a franchise to rush a star player
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: back from an injury, who would you get it would be,
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: I'd be like probably the Bengals.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, by the way, practiced in full in the
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: last practice for the sinsa Veles, so there's a very
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: real chance that he does play. I did bet t
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Higgins anytime touchdown, and that was just based on Jamar
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Chase not playing and him being the number one guy.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: But I'll love that prop even more if Burrow is
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: out there, even if they're rushing him back to the field.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: But I like that BTJ. Look, it's that time of
• 33:22
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• 34:08
  Speaker 1: for the reason you all came here today are two
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay. A reminder for those out there.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: We nominate two plays, see if we can find some
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: consensus on the board and eventually land on our team
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: built parlay presented by Draft Kings. The Crown is yours.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Kendra get us started.
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: I had the over in the Seattle and the Tennessee game,
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: because I was thinking forty and a half feels low
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: for a Seattle team that could put that up on
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: the on the Titans, even if they wanted to. But
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: the other thing is here, if we get the Sam
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: Donald that we got last week, he could throw some
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: interceptions we should get, We could get some defensive scoring.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: Tennessee's good for probably ten to twelve points a game.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: Feels a little low for a team that one team
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: that could score this on their own let alone, if
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: you know, kind of shit hits the fan. But we
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: all seem to be in consensus on Vegas. So I
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: think Vegas is our play before we even go any further.
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: I got Vegas. I kind of like the under in
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: Seattle Tennessee just because at Seattle could be a little
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: flat after that Rams game. It's outdoors. They have some
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: injuries on the interier offensive line, and the strength of
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: the Tennessee defense is their interior. The defensive line with
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: Sweat and Simmons. You saw that last week. They kind
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: of Wrecktavoc on that game. So in interior pressure coming
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: at Darnald, that could cause some issues. And I mean
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: this Seattle defense is the real deal. I'm just not
• 35:35
  Speaker 5: sure all Tennessee is gonna score. I mean, they have
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: injuries at wide receiver, their offensive line is still terrible.
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: Ward has been bad, Like I just don't know how
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: they consistently moved the ball. So yeah, let's go with
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: Vegas minus three and a half.
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: That's my Vegas baby.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm the world's worst totals better in the NFL.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: I just it's just not my market. So I will
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: doubt every once in a while, but not a strong
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: opinion on that. I love the Raiders, and I think
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: we should do it with the number. Well, it's not
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: even money line this, let's get our let's get banged
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: for our buck here, we're gonna gown Las Vegas Raiders
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Stucky, what about you?
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: My two either will go Saints. It doesn't matter if
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: it's money line or spread.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: This.
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: The Falcons I think are toast. There's a number one.
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: It's a horrible spot, that dream crusher spot. They lost
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: back to back games in overtime, one in overseas, one
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: back in the States. Their defense is on the field
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: like he he plays a game. They got to be gassed.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: They were gassed the end of last week. Saints coming
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: off of a bye, Shuck has looked better. And there's
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: no Drake London. I mean, he's probably one of the
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: most valuable receivers in the NFL. Given how good he
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: is and given what's behind him. Kirk Cousins is toast.
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: I mean, Cousins is forty second out of forty four
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: quarterbacks an EPA plus completion percentage over expectation, and he's
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: played the Dolphins and the Panthers. He's only ahead of
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: McCarthy and Gabriel. He's only one of four quarterbacks in
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: that staff that are in the negative. The only other
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: one is Ward Saints, so what are they going to
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: try to do? They're gonna try to run the ball. Well,
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: the Saints defense is good against the run, top ten
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: EPA success rate. They're just gonna load the box. We
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: already saw the Falcons with Cousins and without London they
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: lost by twenty eight at home to the Dolphins. So
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: Saints should be able to run the ball here. That'll
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: help out Chuck, and the on off splits with him
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: without London are devastating. I mean, the average five point
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: seven yards per play with them four point four without
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: them run game most importantly goes from four point seven
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: to three point five. That's because you don't have to
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: worry about London. Just stack the box, contain bijon, Falcons
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: go to sleep. So basically, if you look at their
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: EPA per play without panis I mean without London, they're
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: basically the Browns offense and only the Titans are worse.
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: So I like the Saints to get it done, and
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: then the Cowboys. Although we need a three and a
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: half there, we could buy it for twenty five. I
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: think at DraftKings. I played this earlier in the week
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: at a better number, but still even at a more
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: expensive three and a half that that's okay for me.
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: I mean, this Eagles offense can't get margined on anybody.
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: They are who they are at this point. They have
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: seven of the eight wins this year by one possession.
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: There's seven to one and one possession games. Cowboys recent
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: additions on defense will help with their RUNDI play a
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: lot of zone on the back end. That's what we
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: want to do against Hurts. The Eagles can't really throw
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: it anyway, and I trust this Cowboys offense to score.
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: I know the Eagles defense really improving, but I think
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: this is like a field goal game either way. Dak
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: first the division for what it's worth, thirty one and
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: thirteen against the spread, just a crazy run that he's
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: been on for his whole career, covering by about a
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: touchdown per game over seventy percent against the closing number.
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: So those are my votes. We can go Saints money
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: line were spread, bull or Cowboys, but need to three
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: and a half.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm the Doucans, so I can't go with the Saints,
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: and I don't love the Cowboys, saying just because for
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: some reason the Eagles always find ways.
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: To win, but gun into my head, I'm probably gonnag
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: go Cowboys.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: I have a really hard time getting there. On the Saints.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: I do think that's the right side, but having stared
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: at that plus one and a half on Sunday night
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: and not firing on it and then looking at them
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: as Tyler Schuck is a favorite, I have a golden
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: rule in betting, don't bet irresponsible favorites, and I think
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: the Saints would fall into that bucket. So I have
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: a hard time going against my own personal philosophy.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: I love the Cowboys.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Bet though, so I like both of them, but I've
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: already bet the Cowboys, so I'm good. I'm trying to
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: decide on which one to vote on here because I
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: already have a bet on and I'm being this is
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: a selfish bit of analysis here. I already have a
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: bet on the Cowboys, and I kind of want in
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: on the Saints, So part of me wants to throw
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: the Saints in there, just so that's my.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: Way of getting in on New Orleans.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: But I like the Dallas bet better, so I'm gonna
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: think logically and not selfishly here. I'll go Dallas, and
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I do think we should buy that extra half point. Evan,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: there's a there's not totally a split if we seem
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: to be in agreement here, But where would you land
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: on this?
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Since there's there are some thought bubbles forming for us.
• 40:26
  Speaker 6: I would probably lean Saints as hard as it is
• 40:30
  Speaker 6: team off of by other team back to back OT,
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: especially with the fact coming Overseas off OT play OT
• 40:37
  Speaker 6: again other team off of BYE. Like I think, then
• 40:40
  Speaker 6: the spread is telling you that the Saints are obviously
• 40:43
  Speaker 6: the right direction here, even with Cousins. Here's the number
• 40:47
  Speaker 6: Pennis and Cousins last four games when targeting wide receivers,
• 40:51
  Speaker 6: not Drake London thirteen receptions on thirty eight targets absolutely bonkers,
• 40:57
  Speaker 6: So I assume that's going to be struggling as well
• 40:59
  Speaker 6: against his defense, So I probably lean sants.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: All right, But Kendrick, you like the Cowboys. I like
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. We're going Cowboys. Thank you for the analysis
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: of it.
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: But you're to go with two new plays. Your your
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: your plays are Bengals plus seven that that's no longer available, and.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: The Lions are Yeah, that's a different number, no longer available.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: What d well?
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: I mean it was plus seven when I started working
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: this morning. I got seven, all right?
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: Half a draftings half hmm.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: Okay, let me just make my case for the Bengals.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: The Lions. One is very simple.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: It is Dan Campbell Jared Goff off of bye against
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: the team that can't stop the run. This is perfectly
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: catered to their ability to bloat. This they just this
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: is what they do. They blow bad teams out, and
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: they do it off of losses, and they do it
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: at home. I mean, this is just that's as simple
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: as it gets. I have not bet that one yet
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: for the record, This would just be I think it's
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: a really good nominee for the parlay. I am trading
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: in my sad cats for some different cats here as
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: far as Cincinnati goes, I might go broke fading the
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Patriots this year, but I'm gonna go back for some
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: more pain.
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: I already bet this.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: This number was plus eight and a half just a
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: couple of days ago, and I wanted in before dipped
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: any further. I'm not too worried about Chase being out
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: because T Higgins is still there. They should still be
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: able to throw the football. And New Orleans or New
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: England rather has not faced many healthy or functional offenses
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: this year, and I think it's helping their overall defensive
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: numbers and making those on that healthy.
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: But what now this has come down of seven. There's
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: variance with Burrow. We don't know if he's gonna play.
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: Why don't we go? It feels like a moneyline dog.
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: That's what I was just gonna say.
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: Sits due for like a just a you know where
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: they come out completely flat. Every NFL team is a
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: couple games a year where they just don't show up,
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: like a game at Sincy that could you know they've
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: been in their fat and happy in cruise control, and
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: then you have the upside of Barrow potentially playing.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but this puts a lot of pressure on me, guys, because.
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: They now Carey doesn't put it actually puts no pressure
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: on you. You're taking the shot.
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: We're basically predicting if Joe Burrow is gonna play or not.
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: That's what this comes down to.
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: Even if Borrow doesn't play it. I don't think the
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: Bengals are completely out of it, like they Flacco could
• 43:24
  Speaker 5: just have a day.
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: Defense is so bad.
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but the Patriots could just have an off day.
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: I mean that happens in the NFL every like like
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: the Packers lost at home to the Panthers, the the
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: Lions lost to JJ McCarthy, like Matt Home.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: I have an idea, so I have I have, I
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: have an idea here on how to handle this.
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the seven is gone, so we might as well
• 43:47
  Speaker 5: go money line with the upside of Barrow playing.
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: I mean I like both bets, Cincinnati money line and
• 43:52
  Speaker 6: Detroit to blow out the Giants.
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: I think are let's go Bengals.
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's Cats parlay.
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: And it's ten. So Bengals Saints, Bengals money line Saints
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: money line.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: That we had Dallas.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: No, it's Dallas, Dallas and a three and a half
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: on the Cowboys, and.
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: We can go Raiders money line too, and then that's
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: eight to one.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: All right, So at d Bengals money line?
• 44:28
  Speaker 6: Do Raiders money line?
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Raiders money line, Bengals money line, Cowboys plus three
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: and a half plus eight ten on DraftKings.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: That is our two Kings and a Queen parlay presented
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: by DraftKings. The Crown is yours. I don't want to
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: hear shit on Sunday. That'll do it for today's episode
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: special Thanks to our producers Gifford Gold and David Payne.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Shout out to our stats guy, Evan Abrams helping us
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: to make some very important decisions here. The Favorites will
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: return on Sunday night, a week twelve recap. Catch it
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: right here on the Action Network YouTube page. Thanks for
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: tuning in. We'll see you next time here on the
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Favorites podcast, presented by DraftKings. Let's Catch these tickets.
• 45:19
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