Latest / How Canadian Markets Work / Episode 85: NAVPS (The Blind Commitment)
Transcript
- 0:00So imagine walking into a grocery store, filling
- 0:03your cart to the absolute brim, and then just
- 0:06handing the cashier a blank check. Right, because
- 0:09the final prices of your food won't actually
- 0:10be decided until midnight. Exactly. I mean, you
- 0:14would probably never agree to that in real life.
- 0:16No, nobody would. Yet every single day, millions
- 0:19of investors do exactly that when they buy a
- 0:21mutual fund. So welcome back to the deep dive
- 0:25glad to be here in our last deep dive into the
- 0:27source material We explored the massive, you
- 0:30know compounding impact of management expense
- 0:32ratios or MERS over time But today we are answering
- 0:36the logical next question, which is exactly when
- 0:39and how are those fees actually deducted from
- 0:41your money? Right. We're going on a mission today
- 0:44to understand the invisible machinery of net
- 0:47asset value per share, or NAVPS. It's a bit of
- 0:50a mouthful, but it's crucial. Yeah. We're going
- 0:52to explore how mutual funds calculate their worth
- 0:55daily, why placing an order at like 11 a .m.
- 0:59means buying at a price you literally cannot
- 1:01know yet. Which is wild to think about. Oh, it
- 1:03is. And we'll look at how the hidden mechanics
- 1:06of daily valuation fundamentally protect you
- 1:10from, well, predator. It is a system that feels
- 1:13incredibly counterintuitive the first time you
- 1:16interact with it. I mean, we're so conditioned
- 1:18by modern technology to expect instant gratification.
- 1:22Yeah, real -time pricing on everything. Exactly.
- 1:24But once you see the architecture underneath
- 1:26the mutual fund complex, you realize that stripping
- 1:29away that instant gratification was designed
- 1:32for a very specific, highly protective reason.
- 1:35Okay, well let's unpack this because before we
- 1:37can understand how you buy or sell a fund or
- 1:40why the price is hidden from you during the day,
- 1:42we have to understand what a fund is actually
- 1:44worth on any given Tuesday. Right. And critically,
- 1:47how it quietly pays those management fees we
- 1:49spent so much time discussing last time. So to
- 1:52find that worth, we really have to look at the
- 1:54daily calculation of net asset value per share.
- 1:57And the formula itself is actually just simple
- 1:59arithmetic. Okay, hit me with it. You take the
- 2:01total assets of the mutual fund, subtract the
- 2:04total liabilities and then divide whatever number
- 2:08you get by the number of units outstanding. Meaning
- 2:11the total number of shares held by all the investors.
- 2:14Exactly. But the devil is always in what makes
- 2:17up those two broad categories. Like, let's start
- 2:20with the assets. What is actually in the plus
- 2:22column? Well, the assets include all the securities
- 2:25the fund holds. and those are valued at their
- 2:28absolute final closing prices for that specific
- 2:31trading day. Okay, so every stock, every bond,
- 2:35commercial paper, all of it. Right, all of it.
- 2:38But it also includes any raw cash the fund is
- 2:40holding in reserve, plus any receivables. Receivables,
- 2:43like money owed to the fund. Yeah, exactly, money
- 2:45that hasn't arrived in the bank account yet,
- 2:47like maybe a pending corporate dividend payment
- 2:49that was declared today but doesn't actually
- 2:51pay out until next week. Oh, I see, that makes
- 2:53sense. It's basically the total pile of wealth.
- 2:55So what about the liabilities? What does a massive
- 2:58mutual fund actually owe on a daily basis? A
- 3:01few things. Liabilities include any unsettled
- 3:04trades. So if the portfolio manager bought, say,
- 3:08$50 million worth of stock at 2 p .m., the fund
- 3:11holds the stock but hasn't fully transferred
- 3:13the cash yet. Ah, OK. So that's a liability on
- 3:17the books. Right. It also includes any declared
- 3:19distributions that haven't been paid out to you,
- 3:21the investors. Yeah. But the most crucial liability
- 3:24for our discussion, the one that connects to
- 3:26our previous deep dive, is accrued management
- 3:29fees and operating expenses. OK, I want to make
- 3:32this really concrete for you listening because
- 3:34this is where that invisible fee deduction actually
- 3:36happens in action. Yeah, it's a great concept
- 3:38to visualize. So think of this daily NAVPS calculation
- 3:42like valuing a house that you own with a mortgage.
- 3:45To figure out your actual equity in that house,
- 3:48you wouldn't just look at the current market
- 3:49value of the property. No. because you don't
- 3:52own it free and clear. Exactly. That's just your
- 3:54total assets. You have to subtract what you owe.
- 3:58So you take the million dollar market value of
- 4:00the house and you subtract the remaining principal
- 4:02on your mortgage plus the daily interest that
- 4:05has accrued on that loan up to this exact minute.
- 4:08And whatever is left over is your true actual
- 4:13equity. Right. And if you co -own that house
- 4:15with 10 other people, you divide that remaining
- 4:18equity by 10 to find out what your specific share
- 4:21is worth. That is a perfect analogy. That daily
- 4:24interest on the mortgage is the exact equivalent
- 4:27to your fund's management fee. I mean, the MER
- 4:29is always quoted to you as an annual percentage,
- 4:31right? Yeah, like 1 .5 percent or whatever. Exactly.
- 4:33But the fund doesn't just wait until December
- 4:3631st and chop 1 .5 percent off the top all at
- 4:39once. That would be a huge hit. It would. So
- 4:41instead, it is accrued and deducted continuously,
- 4:45day by day, fraction by fraction. That liability
- 4:47is subtracted from the asset pool before the
- 4:50net asset value per share you see on your screen
- 4:52is even calculated. Wait, so the returns you
- 4:55are looking at on a funds fact sheet or the performance
- 4:59chart on your brokerage app, those are already
- 5:01net of the MER? 100%. They are already net of
- 5:03the fees. Wow. Well I guess that explains why
- 5:06you never get a bill in the mail for your mutual
- 5:08fund. Right. You never see a line item on your
- 5:10monthly statement deducting a fee from your cash
- 5:13gallons. It is entirely baked into the price
- 5:16of the unit itself. That is so subtle. It really
- 5:18is. Yeah. Every single business day. After the
- 5:21markets close, the fund administrators tally
- 5:24up the new closing prices of the assets, subtract
- 5:27the liabilities, including that specific day's
- 5:30tiny slice of the annual fee, and divide by the
- 5:33units. And that finalized number becomes the
- 5:35official published price. Exactly. Which kind
- 5:38of brings us back to that grocery store analogy
- 5:40from the start. Because this NFVPS calculation
- 5:43relies on the absolute final closing prices of
- 5:46the broader market, it creates this bizarre situation
- 5:49when you actually try to buy a mutual fund during
- 5:51the trading day. Because the price doesn't exist
- 5:53yet. Right. The price you are trying to buy at
- 5:56simply does not exist. is a complete departure
- 5:59from how we buy almost anything else in life.
- 6:02I mean, if I pull up my brokerage app at 11 a
- 6:04.m. and I want to buy a regular company stock,
- 6:07or even an ETF like an exchange -traded fund
- 6:09that tracks an index, I see the price instantly.
- 6:13Yeah, you see the live ticker. I see the order
- 6:15book. I can buy an ETF at $25 .12, and I know
- 6:19exactly what my treat is going to cost me, down
- 6:22to the penny. Right. But if I pull up a traditional
- 6:25mutual fund at 11 a .m. and enter an order for
- 6:28$5 ,000, I am completely blind. The app might
- 6:32show me a price of $25, but I'm not actually
- 6:34buying it for $25, am I? No, you're not. You
- 6:37are looking at a ghost. You are looking at yesterday's
- 6:41closing price. The actual price you will pay
- 6:43for your new units is completely unknown to you.
- 6:47And frankly, it's unknown to the fund manager
- 6:49at 11 a .m. too. Because the price is entirely
- 6:51dependent on what the market does between my
- 6:54order time and the closing bell. So if the market
- 6:56tanks at 2 p .m., my price changes. I'm taking
- 6:59on all this intraday market risk and I have zero
- 7:02control over my entry point. I mean, isn't that
- 7:05fundamentally unfair to the buyer? What's fascinating
- 7:07here is that your frustration is the universal
- 7:10reaction. Everyone feels that way at first. We
- 7:14all want the control of a live ticker. Of course
- 7:15we do. But this blind commitment, what the industry
- 7:19calls forward pricing, is not some antiquated
- 7:22bug in the software. It's not. No. It is a structural
- 7:26safeguard specifically engineered to protect
- 7:29the people who matter most in this scenario,
- 7:32which is the existing investors who are already
- 7:33holding the fund. OK, you're going to have to
- 7:35explain that because I'm struggling to see how
- 7:37forcing me to buy a financial product blindfolded
- 7:40is actually a protective measure. Fair enough.
- 7:43Let's run a quick thought experiment and look
- 7:44at the alternative. Imagine if mutual funds did
- 7:47not use forward pricing. Okay. Imagine if the
- 7:50rules allowed you to buy in today at yesterday's
- 7:53known calculated NAVPS. Okay, so I place my order
- 7:57at noon on Tuesday and I get Monday's 4 p .m.
- 7:59price. Exactly. Now suppose overnight a central
- 8:03bank makes a massive surprise announcement. or
- 8:06a major geopolitical conflict is suddenly resolved.
- 8:10The news is overwhelmingly positive. Right. The
- 8:13markets are going to love that. They do. Before
- 8:15the North American markets even open, futures
- 8:18are surging. It is absolutely guaranteed that
- 8:20when the opening bell rings, stocks are going
- 8:22to rally by 3 % across the board. Well, if the
- 8:26rules let me buy the mutual fund yesterday's
- 8:28price, I am basically printing free money. You
- 8:31are. I mean, I buy in at the old cheaper price.
- 8:34Knowing for a fact that the underlying assets
- 8:36the fund holds are already worth 3 % more today,
- 8:39I capture that game instantly. You do. And that
- 8:42specific action is called market timing. It is
- 8:45a risk -free arbitrage trade for you, the new
- 8:47buyer. Well, we have to ask. Where does your
- 8:503 % profit actually come from? It doesn't materialize
- 8:54out of thin air. Well, it has to come from the
- 8:56pool, right? Yes. It comes directly out of the
- 8:59pockets of the existing investors because the
- 9:02fund is selling you newly minted units for less
- 9:05than those units are actually worth based on
- 9:08the real world value of the assets today. Oh,
- 9:10wow. So I'm diluting their value. Exactly. You
- 9:13are diluting the equity of everyone who is already
- 9:16faithfully holding the fund. That's basically
- 9:18a time machine vulnerability. Pricing at yesterday's
- 9:22close is like letting people place bets on a
- 9:24horse race that finished an hour ago. That's
- 9:26exactly what it is. I mean, you already know
- 9:28the outcome. So of course you're going to bet
- 9:30your life savings on the winning horse. But the
- 9:32bookie still has to pay you. And the only way
- 9:34they do that is by taking money away from the
- 9:36people who place their bets fairly before the
- 9:39race started. And historically, this wasn't just
- 9:41some hypothetical thought experiment. It was
- 9:44a massive vulnerability. that sophisticated traders
- 9:47heavily exploited in the real world. Really?
- 9:50Oh, yeah. Particularly in funds holding international
- 9:53assets. It was known as the stale price vulnerability.
- 9:58Wait, how did that work in practice? Think about
- 10:00a North American mutual fund that holds Japanese
- 10:02equities. OK. The Asian markets close hours and
- 10:05hours before the North American markets do. So
- 10:08by the time the North American fund calculates
- 10:11its NAVPS at 4 p .m. Eastern time, Tokyo has
- 10:15been asleep for half a day. Oh, right, because
- 10:17of the time zones. Exactly. So the closing prices
- 10:20of those Japanese stocks are already incredibly
- 10:22stale by 4 p .m. in New York. Because, I mean...
- 10:26Half a day of global news, US economic data,
- 10:31currency shifts, all of that has happened since
- 10:33the Asian markets closed. Exactly. So institutional
- 10:35traders would watch the US market during the
- 10:37day. If the S &P 500 was surging on a Tuesday
- 10:40afternoon, it was a statistical near certainty
- 10:43that the Japanese markets would also surge when
- 10:45they finally open for their Wednesday session.
- 10:47Right. So these traders would buy the North American
- 10:49Mutual Fund at 3 .59 p .m., locking in an NAVPS
- 10:53based on those stale Asian closing prices from
- 10:55yesterday. underlying assets were about to gap
- 10:58up in value overnight? Exactly. Wow. They were
- 11:01legally stealing the future gains from the long
- 11:04-term buy and hold investors of that international
- 11:06fund. They were. And to combat this, regulators
- 11:10eventually stepped in with strict rules. Funds
- 11:13are now required to use what are called fair
- 11:16value adjustments when closing prices are stale.
- 11:19So they can't just use yesterday's Tokyo closing
- 11:21price blindly anymore. No, they can't. They use
- 11:24complex algorithms, looking at correlated assets
- 11:27like U .S. futures or American depository receipts
- 11:30to estimate what that Japanese stock would be
- 11:33trading at right now if the market were open.
- 11:35Oh, OK. They adjust the estimated value of the
- 11:38foreign holdings before the daily NAVPS is calculated.
- 11:41OK, so when I get frustrated that I have to buy
- 11:43blindly at 11 a .m., I really need to reframe
- 11:46my thinking. Forward pricing perfectly neutralizes
- 11:49the market timers. It stops them in their tracks.
- 11:52Because if the market falls 2 percent by the
- 11:54close, my blind order gets executed at a cheaper
- 11:56price. If it rallies 3 percent, I pay more. I
- 11:59cannot control the intraday moves, which means
- 12:02the time traveling arbitrager can't control them
- 12:04either. Exactly. And as a long term investor,
- 12:07does the intraday movement of a Tuesday in October
- 12:09actually matter? to your retirement 30 years
- 12:12from now? Not really, no. No. Forward pricing
- 12:16forces everyone to act like a long -term investor.
- 12:19And it ensures that no sharp trader can drain
- 12:22value from the shared pool you are invested in.
- 12:25So it's basically a protective wall. Exactly.
- 12:27When you place an order before the daily cutoff
- 12:29time, usually around 3, 0, or 4 p .m., you get
- 12:33that day's eventual closing price. If you miss
- 12:35the cutoff, you just get... tomorrow's closing
- 12:38price. OK, so once I let go of that need for
- 12:41instant price gratification, I can actually start
- 12:44to see the massive benefits of this exact same
- 12:46pricing structure, especially for like the average
- 12:49retail investor who's just putting away a few
- 12:51hundred dollars a month. Yes, we often call this
- 12:53the hidden fairness of the mutual fund. Yeah,
- 12:55let's dig into that, because if we compare this
- 12:57to buying an ETF or a stock on the open market,
- 13:00it's very different. In a live market, you have
- 13:02invisible transaction costs. You have a bid price,
- 13:05what buyers are willing to pay, and an ask price,
- 13:08what sellers are demanding. The spread. Right.
- 13:10And the market maker, the middleman facilitating
- 13:13the trade, takes a cut of every single transaction
- 13:16through that bid ask spread. If you are buying
- 13:20a thinly traded ETF or a small cap stock, that
- 13:23spread can be huge. You lose a percentage of
- 13:26your wealth the very second the trade executes.
- 13:29That's exactly right. And you also face market
- 13:31impact. What's that? Well, if you place a large
- 13:34order, say an institution wants to buy 50 ,000
- 13:37shares of a small company, that order will eat
- 13:40through the order book. They will buy the first
- 13:42few hundred shares at a good price. But to fill
- 13:45the rest of the mass order, they'll have to accept
- 13:47progressively worse and worse prices as they
- 13:49chew through the available sellers. Oh, because
- 13:52their own buying demand pushes the market price
- 13:54against them. Exactly. But with a mutual fund,
- 13:56because of how NAVPS is calculated and how forward
- 13:59pricing is executed, those execution costs basically
- 14:02vanish for the individual trade. Because everyone
- 14:04is pooled together. Right. Every single order
- 14:07received before the cutoff time is pooled. The
- 14:09fund does its NAVPS calculation after the close
- 14:12and every single investor gets the exact same
- 14:14price, down to the fraction of a cent. It is
- 14:17a perfectly level playing field. I mean, whether
- 14:20you place your order at 9 a .m. or 3 .55 p .m.,
- 14:24whether you are a retail investor buying $100
- 14:26worth in your retirement account or a massive
- 14:29pension fund buying $10 million worth. You all
- 14:32receive the exact same net asset value per share.
- 14:35That is wild. There is no bid ask spread to eat
- 14:39into my monthly contribution. There is no market
- 14:41impact where a big whale gets a different average
- 14:44fill price than a retail minnow. It's all equalized.
- 14:47People love to complain about mutual fund mechanics
- 14:49being clunky compared to live trading apps. But
- 14:52for a regular contributor, this execution mechanism
- 14:55is arguably far fairer and more democratized
- 14:58than stepping into the live arena of the stock
- 15:01exchange. It trades certainty of price for certainty
- 15:04of fairness, which really changes how you evaluate
- 15:06the product. Absolutely. Okay. So buying in is
- 15:09perfectly egalitarian. But what happens when
- 15:11things go wrong? What happens when a massive
- 15:13crowd of investors get spooked by the news and
- 15:15decides they want out of the fund at the exact
- 15:17same time? Does that fairness still hold up?
- 15:19That is the big question. So redemptions use
- 15:22the exact same forward pricing mechanism. If
- 15:26you submit a sell order before the cutoff today,
- 15:29you get today's calculated closing NAVPS. Okay.
- 15:33On an individual level, it is perfectly fair.
- 15:36But remember, the mutual fund is a shared pool.
- 15:39And when you want to leave the pool, the fund
- 15:41must actually have raw cash to pay you out. But
- 15:44the fund isn't just sitting on a mountain of
- 15:46uninvested cash, though. I mean, that would drag
- 15:49down the overall returns. The money is deployed
- 15:51into the underlying stocks or bonds. Right. A
- 15:53fund usually holds a small cash buffer for normal
- 15:56day -to -day redemptions. But if redemptions
- 15:58are heavy, say during a severe market panic when
- 16:01everyone is rushing for the exits, the cash buffer
- 16:04is drained immediately. So what do they do? To
- 16:06generate the cash to pay the exiting investors,
- 16:09the portfolio manager is forced to sell off the
- 16:11underlying holdings into the live market. And
- 16:13when a manager is forced to sell assets, they
- 16:15trigger real -world consequences. Specifically,
- 16:19tax consequences. When the portfolio manager
- 16:22sells those underlying stocks to raise cash,
- 16:25they are crystallizing capital gains. They are
- 16:28turning a theoretical paper profit into a hard
- 16:31taxable cash profit. Assuming, of course, the
- 16:34assets went up in value since the fund originally
- 16:36bought them. Right. Assuming a gain. Now, in
- 16:39a tax -sheltered vehicle like an IRA in the United
- 16:41States or an RRSP in Canada, this doesn't matter
- 16:45much to the investor. The tax shelter shields
- 16:47you. Okay, good. But in a non -registered, fully
- 16:50taxable brokerage account, those realized capital
- 16:53gains don't just sit inside the fund. By law,
- 16:57to avoid corporate -level taxation, the mutual
- 16:59fund has to distribute those taxable gains to
- 17:01its unit holders. Okay, wait. The people who
- 17:03panicked and sold their units, they took their
- 17:05cash and left. They are gone. They are gone.
- 17:07So the taxable capital gains generated by the
- 17:09managers selling assets to pay them out? Where
- 17:11do they go? By law, those games are distributed
- 17:13to whoever is still holding the fund when the
- 17:16distribution is made, the remaining unit holders.
- 17:18That is horrifying. So I can face a massive tax
- 17:21bill just because other people decided to panic
- 17:23and sell. Yes. I didn't do anything. I held strong.
- 17:27I weathered the market volatility. And my reward
- 17:30is a taxable distribution because my fellow investors
- 17:33got spooked and forced the manager to liquidate.
- 17:35That is the double -edged sword of the shared
- 17:38pool. You share the efficiencies, you share the
- 17:40perfectly level pricing, but you also share the
- 17:43consequences of the pool's liquidity needs. If
- 17:46the pool needs cash, the pool crystallizes the
- 17:49gain, and you are part of the pool. Wow. That
- 17:53feels like a massive trap for anyone investing
- 17:55outside of a tax -sheltered account. It is a
- 17:58known structural reality, which is exactly why
- 18:00many mutual funds impose short -term trading
- 18:02fees. You might see a penalty fee of 1 or 2 percent
- 18:06if you buy a fund and then sell it within 30
- 18:08or 90 days. Ah, so those fees aren't there to
- 18:11pad the manager's bonus. No, not at all. They
- 18:13are designed to actively punish the kind of rapid,
- 18:16opportunistic trading that forces the fund to
- 18:18constantly buy and sell underlying assets, which
- 18:21racks up trading costs. and tax consequences
- 18:23for the long -term holders. Exactly. It is a
- 18:26penalty to protect the herd from the disruptive
- 18:29behavior of the individual. But understanding
- 18:32this pass -through taxation leads to a vital
- 18:35warning for anyone investing in taxable accounts,
- 18:38especially toward the end of the calendar year.
- 18:40Okay, what is it? We call it the end -of -year
- 18:42tax trap. I want to walk through a scenario for
- 18:44this, because it catches so many people entirely
- 18:47off guard. Say it is late November. You get a
- 18:51bonus at work, you have a chunk of cash, and
- 18:53you decide to buy into a mutual fund in your
- 18:56taxable brokerage account. You place your order,
- 18:59forward pricing gives you your perfectly fair
- 19:01NIVPS, and you are in. Great. But let's say that
- 19:04fund has had an incredibly active, profitable
- 19:07year. The manager has been buying and selling,
- 19:09realizing capital gains throughout the spring
- 19:11and summer. The fund prepares to make its legally
- 19:14required annual capital gains distribution in
- 19:16the middle of December. Okay, but I bought the
- 19:18fund in late November. What happens to me? Two
- 19:20weeks after you buy the fund, you receive a massive
- 19:23taxable capital gains distribution. You are now
- 19:26legally on the hook to pay taxes on profits the
- 19:28fund earned before you even owned it. I literally
- 19:31bought a tax liability. You did. That is absurd.
- 19:35I wasn't there for the growth in March. I wasn't
- 19:37there for the smart trades in July. But because
- 19:39I jumped into the pool in November, I get handed
- 19:42a slice of the tax bill for the entire year's
- 19:45party. Which is why understanding the distribution
- 19:47schedules of the mutual funds you buy is absolutely
- 19:50critical. So what should someone do in that situation?
- 19:54If it is late in the calendar year and you are
- 19:57investing in a taxable account, you must check
- 19:59when the fund distributes its gains. It is often
- 20:03mathematically wiser to simply hold your cash
- 20:05in a high -interest savings account for a few
- 20:07weeks and wait to buy into the mutual fund until
- 20:10the day after the December distribution has been
- 20:13paid out. Wow. Okay, so tying this all together,
- 20:16the mechanics of a mutual fund are basically
- 20:18a master class in trade -offs. They really are.
- 20:21The NAVPS is the daily heartbeat. tallying the
- 20:24assets, subtracting the liabilities, and invisibly
- 20:27skimming off that management expense ratio so
- 20:29you never have to see the bill. We give up the
- 20:31instant gratification of live pricing. And in
- 20:34return, forward pricing shields us from the time
- 20:36traveling arbitrageurs who want to steal our
- 20:39equity. Exactly. We get a perfectly level playing
- 20:41field with no bid ask spreads. But we also accept
- 20:45that we are tethered to the behavior of our fellow
- 20:47investors, sharing the tax burden when the herd
- 20:50decides to stampede. The machinery is brilliant,
- 20:53but you absolutely have to know where the tripwires
- 20:55are, especially those end of year tax distributions.
- 20:58It is a deeply interconnected system. But, you
- 21:01know, all of this machinery, all this talk of
- 21:03perfectly level playing fields and precise daily
- 21:06valuations relies on one foundational assumption
- 21:09that we haven't actually challenged yet. Uh -oh.
- 21:11What's the assumption? We have spent this entire
- 21:13time assuming that the total assets part of the
- 21:15NFEPS calculation is a hard, indisputable scientific
- 21:20fact. And for a mutual fund holding large liquid
- 21:22stocks like major banks or global tech giants,
- 21:25it is. The closing price at 4 p .m. is a public
- 21:29verifiable number. But this raises an important
- 21:32question. What about funds that hold illiquid
- 21:35assets? You mean things like private equity,
- 21:38small cap mining companies, or commercial real
- 21:40estate, things that don't trade on a live second
- 21:43-by -second ticker? Exactly. For those assets,
- 21:46there is no pristine closing price at 4 p .m.
- 21:48to plug into the formula. The mutual fund has
- 21:51to rely on estimates, driven by its own internal
- 21:54valuation models and policies. Wait, really?
- 21:57Yes. The daily NAVPS for a fund holding illiquid
- 22:00assets relies heavily on an educated guess. OK,
- 22:03so that daily heartbeat isn't a hard fact at
- 22:06all. It's essentially a policy estimate. Right.
- 22:08Now, I want to leave you with this to mull over.
- 22:11Consider what happens when a severe market panic
- 22:13hits. Everyone rushes for the exits. The fund
- 22:16has to sell assets to meet redemptions. But because
- 22:18those assets are illiquid, the fund discovers
- 22:20that the actual real world cash they can get
- 22:22in the fire sale is far, far low. than the optimistic
- 22:26estimate they've been using in their daily NAVPS
- 22:28calculation. Oh, wow. If a mutual fund's daily
- 22:31price relies on estimates, what happens to that
- 22:34perfectly fair forward pricing when reality violently
- 22:38collides with the policy? Who really pays the
- 22:40price when a fund is forced to liquidate and
- 22:42the exiting investors get paid out at an artificially
- 22:45high estimated NAVPS, leaving the remaining investors
- 22:48holding a portfolio worth a fraction of what
- 22:50the formula promised? That is a terrifying thought
- 22:53to end on, but it proves the point. Keep an eye
- 22:56on the plumbing, check your distribution dates,
- 22:58and never assume the price on the screen tells
- 23:00the whole story.