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2026 College Football Title Contenders: Teams That Can Win It All · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:05
  What is up, everybody? Welcome to targeting winners.
• 0:10
  National championship preview. I think it's too early.
• 0:13
  Darren, do you think it's too late?
• 0:14
  I am declaring even though today is college basketball season or
• 0:18
  the tournament. I'm declaring.
• 0:20
  Football season underway officially.
• 0:23
  Yeah, we got it's. Like the college football's
• 0:24
  version of March Madness, I mean.
• 0:27
  And no, it's not early. We discussed this last time
• 0:29
  like. 4 hours. After Indiana won the whole
• 0:31
  thing, these odds were out. We're behind.
• 0:33
  Shame on us. We suck.
• 0:35
  Never too early to throw out some.
• 0:37
  I mean, we've had three shows without bets.
• 0:39
  I mean, we're betting show. What are we doing?
• 0:42
  That is true. But tonight you rectify that
• 0:45
  we've. Got some I know I did have
• 0:48
  showed up at a college basketball party today. 20 bucks
• 0:51
  for a pull reached my hand into the bag.
• 0:54
  Duke. Not a not a bad pull.
• 0:58
  So they win their first, but it was only for the first round.
• 1:00
  So I guess if they win by the biggest margin, I win the pool
• 1:02
  or something. I don't know, I haven't watched.
• 1:04
  The game, Can I just say you're not going to win the pool?
• 1:07
  No. They played Sienna, which you
• 1:09
  guys are very familiar. I saw that.
• 1:11
  Yes, we are. Only won by 6, so you're not
• 1:15
  winning. They only won by 6, yeah.
• 1:17
  Sienna was up 11 at halftime. Yeah, that's pretty nice.
• 1:20
  Too funny is I even told the guys at the party I'll be
• 1:24
  rooting for Sienna, 'cause I hate Duke.
• 1:26
  That's one of those things. I'm the guy that did this for
• 1:29
  the football thing. I pick Miami.
• 1:30
  I'd be like, I don't want my SO. Like I haven't watched a single
• 1:35
  college basketball game all year.
• 1:37
  So I'm like, are they, are they still good?
• 1:38
  Duke is usually good. Duke is very good, yes.
• 1:41
  Yeah. Coach K left a couple years ago,
• 1:43
  so I don't know who's coaching them now, but Bobby Hurley,
• 1:47
  maybe Christian Lehner, Who's the coach?
• 1:50
  Some assistant who was under. Could not tell you, I don't
• 1:53
  know. Trier.
• 1:55
  Trier maybe. I think his name is.
• 1:56
  I don't know and. Michigan's A1 seat So that's all
• 1:58
  that matters. We're.
• 2:00
  Here. All right, well, it's football
• 2:02
  time. The hell of basketball.
• 2:04
  One of the best conversations of all, all the whole year.
• 2:07
  Who's going to win the national championship, Darren.
• 2:11
  Yes. What are your initial thoughts
• 2:13
  about the college football's national championship this year?
• 2:16
  Yeah, well, just for the show in general, I'm pretty excited that
• 2:20
  we're finally back to to doing some previews and we got to
• 2:22
  break down some teams over the last couple weeks, you know,
• 2:26
  opening up the apps and seeing that there's actually odds for
• 2:29
  this. Very exciting.
• 2:31
  So I know you guys all got bets, so I'm going to ask you guys,
• 2:36
  you know, we all sit there, we open our apps, we see the
• 2:38
  numbers, we look at the teams. Oh, that's yeah, they could win.
• 2:40
  No, I don't want them at that number.
• 2:41
  Oh, that, that, that's a good long shot right there.
• 2:44
  Whatever we do to think about it, Tim, we'll start with you
• 2:46
  because you know you're the brains of this operation.
• 2:49
  Oh boy. He's the brand of the operation
• 2:51
  and we're screwed. Yes, we are.
• 2:53
  So you open up your Hard Rock app because that's what you have
• 2:56
  in Florida. You look at all these teams, you
• 2:59
  start taking your notes. What's what's what's the one
• 3:02
  thing that you have to have in a team before you even consider
• 3:06
  putting your hard earned money down?
• 3:08
  Well, depending on who you talk to, the most important position
• 3:11
  in sports, a goalie in hockey or the quarterback in football.
• 3:15
  So quarterback only, That's the first thing I look at.
• 3:18
  If they don't have a quarterback, keep moving.
• 3:21
  Don't even you know? Yeah.
• 3:23
  You know, that's, that's for me, that's most important.
• 3:25
  I would say second, be in a pass rush, but most important
• 3:28
  quarterback. I agree with that, Pete.
• 3:30
  Your thoughts what what was quarterback your, your top
• 3:33
  criteria? Is there something else you you
• 3:34
  factor into more importantly than that?
• 3:36
  I mean, quarterback's important, I think depth of talent.
• 3:39
  So you're looking for, you know, universities that can pull like
• 3:43
  a really deep talent pool because they can overcome a lot
• 3:47
  of things if they have a deep talent pool.
• 3:48
  Now, obviously overcoming a back quarterback does not happen, but
• 3:52
  just having depth at positions all across the board is
• 3:55
  important. So that's what I look for first.
• 3:58
  Yeah. I, I mean, I agree with both of
• 4:00
  those things. But yeah, I'm like, Tim, I have
• 4:03
  to see a quarterback, preferably one that that's got at least a
• 4:06
  year of experience under their belt.
• 4:08
  But also playing in a conference championship or a playoff game
• 4:11
  would be would also be beneficial.
• 4:13
  You go back to 2022 where JJ McCarthy, you know, got upset by
• 4:19
  TCU in the semis, but he had that experience. 2023 rolls
• 4:25
  around, guy wins the whole thing.
• 4:27
  So, you know, if they have the same quarterback, that's great.
• 4:30
  If they got one in the portal and you know, I need to see the
• 4:33
  same thing out of that portal quarterback from wherever he was
• 4:36
  last year as well. So and what it does for me,
• 4:39
  basically like Tim said, you know, if you don't have a proven
• 4:41
  guy like I look at Alabama, I'm just like, yeah, they got two
• 4:45
  guys who could potentially be good, but I'm not so sure a nine
• 4:49
  game SEC schedule is what you want to throw somebody out there
• 4:52
  and expect them to win it all. So while I don't completely
• 4:55
  eliminate Alabama, it's certainly a knock against them
• 4:59
  when I when I start breaking it down.
• 5:00
  But all right, enough of that Tim.
• 5:03
  You know, it's our first preview show of the year.
• 5:06
  We got about 15 or 16 more of these until we get to week zero.
• 5:10
  I don't know about you, man, but I can't think of a better way to
• 5:13
  start this preview than by listening to our Michigan man.
• 5:18
  We have to say something positive about the Ohio State
• 5:23
  Bucket currently sitting seven to one at DraftKings and the
• 5:27
  favorite at FanDuel at plus 550. So Pete Floor is yours.
• 5:31
  Can the Buckeyes win it all? And if so, are you betting them?
• 5:35
  God, thanks, man. I appreciate that start.
• 5:38
  I just just what I wanted to start talking about in March.
• 5:43
  Yeah, I mean, this is a so I just talked about depth, depth
• 5:46
  of talent, right, talent depth. This is a team that always has
• 5:51
  depth and that's the issue with them, right?
• 5:54
  So they have elite recruiting, they have depth at all
• 5:57
  positions. They have a proven system,
• 6:01
  consistent performance, right. So with this team, you can
• 6:05
  always expect that, you know, Ryan Day has proven himself as a
• 6:10
  as a quality, a quality coach, which I never doubted, right.
• 6:18
  With all the stuff that happens with Michigan and Ohio State and
• 6:20
  all that, I've always thought Ryan Day was a quality coach and
• 6:23
  he's always been relatively in the box in terms of being, you
• 6:27
  know, reasonable. So from that perspective, I
• 6:30
  think it it's it's hard to ever discount Ohio State.
• 6:33
  So from that perspective, high floor quality talent base, elite
• 6:37
  recruiting always in play, you know, always elite in in the Big
• 6:42
  10. So it's hard to overlook any of
• 6:45
  those things. So they are always in play.
• 6:47
  Now some of the concerns from the betting perspective, because
• 6:49
  that's why we're here, right? I think they're overpriced,
• 6:53
  right? That's my biggest concern here.
• 6:55
  So why I would not bet on them is that quarterback
• 6:57
  inconsistency is my biggest issue going into the season.
• 7:01
  So I'm not entirely sold on what the quarterback is going to
• 7:04
  provide for this team. So execution issues potentially,
• 7:10
  you know, I don't think they have really responded in the
• 7:13
  last two years in pressure games all the time.
• 7:16
  Clearly they have at times, but it's been inconsistent.
• 7:18
  So that's an issue for me. So, you know, overall great
• 7:23
  talent base, you know, to to me, the issue for them is, you know,
• 7:30
  can they step at the step up at the right time?
• 7:33
  They have to navigate the big 10 season.
• 7:35
  Yeah, they'll get in the playoff, but you know, can they
• 7:39
  consistently perform at the right time?
• 7:43
  And I'm I'm not sure they can. And they're just overpriced
• 7:46
  right now. So from the betting perspective,
• 7:48
  I wouldn't bet them because they're overpriced.
• 7:49
  So they won't be there. They're going to be probably
• 7:53
  they'll play themselves into maybe the semifinals and I would
• 7:57
  not be surprised by that, but I'm not sure they are a
• 8:02
  championship contender. So that's my perspective.
• 8:05
  Tim, your thoughts? Yeah, You know, it's the warm
• 8:08
  fuzzy feeling. It's a nice safe bet.
• 8:10
  I mean, every game that they play in, they're probably going
• 8:12
  to have, if not the best two players on on the field, at
• 8:15
  least one of the best players on the field, again, no matter who
• 8:18
  they play. So, you know, it's, I guess he
• 8:23
  said, not a good value safe bet if you want to feel warm and
• 8:27
  fuzzy for, you know, they're going to be this way for the
• 8:28
  foreseeable future. I'd imagine next year.
• 8:31
  We'll be talking about them pretty early in this show next
• 8:33
  year as well. Yeah.
• 8:35
  I like to swing for the fences for these big futures bets.
• 8:38
  So yeah, no bet here for me. I don't know, Darren, what do
• 8:41
  you think? Yeah, too short a number, even
• 8:44
  the seven to one at DraftKings. And again, shop around.
• 8:46
  We're just giving out DraftKings and FanDuel because they're the
• 8:48
  two most widely available apps. But you know, Pete talked about
• 8:53
  the quarterback we had mentioned on a previous show, you know,
• 8:55
  kind of kind of remember who the backup is.
• 8:57
  Well, their backup transferred to Louisville, so I don't even
• 8:59
  know who their backup is at this point.
• 9:01
  Shame on me. Lots of defensive losses.
• 9:04
  Caleb Downs, obviously the biggest one.
• 9:06
  Their top 2 linebacker styles and research gone.
• 9:10
  And this schedule, I mean, good God, man.
• 9:13
  I mean, you get Oregon and Michigan at home.
• 9:16
  And Pete, not to curse your team, but I am actually kind of
• 9:18
  high on Michigan this year. And you know, the Ohio State,
• 9:20
  Michigan games always, you never know what's going to happen.
• 9:23
  But I mean, just look at these Rd. games.
• 9:24
  USC, which is supposedly improved, Texas, Iowa, Indiana,
• 9:28
  I mean. That's tough.
• 9:30
  You know, if they're if they're in, I'm not going to say that
• 9:35
  they're not going to be in because they do have a crap ton
• 9:37
  of talent still on this team. But, you know, you just made
• 9:40
  Matt Patricia like the highest paid defensive coordinator in
• 9:43
  the country. And I don't know, he just
• 9:46
  doesn't have the, I mean, he's Got Talent, but nothing like the
• 9:49
  defense that he's that he had last year.
• 9:51
  So with that schedule, there's probably 2 losses in here.
• 9:55
  Did they get in at 10 and two? Yeah, I think they would because
• 9:57
  that schedule is so tough. You know, and Pete also
• 10:00
  mentioned Julian saying, I mean, he looked great against teams
• 10:04
  he's supposed to look great at. But, you know, do we remember
• 10:06
  Miami? Do we remember Indiana teams
• 10:08
  with really good defenses? He did not look like he was a,
• 10:11
  a, a championship winning quarterback.
• 10:14
  So with this number so low, I'm passing on these guys as well,
• 10:18
  but I I think this is a 10 and two team.
• 10:20
  They'll get in, maybe host a game and win one.
• 10:23
  But yeah, I I think I agree with Pete's semi finals at the is
• 10:27
  like their cap. All right, moving on.
• 10:34
  Next up, Hoss Longhorns 7 to one at DraftKings plus 750 had
• 10:40
  FanDuel. They'll be working in a new
• 10:41
  defensive coordinator. Tim, let's start with you.
• 10:44
  Your thoughts on the Longhorns? Well, they obviously have, you
• 10:48
  know, big talent, big expectations.
• 10:50
  I would say the big question for them would be consistency.
• 10:53
  They got what's his name at quarterback?
• 10:55
  I forget his name. I don't know.
• 10:56
  They don't mention them at all. Something or other I don't.
• 10:59
  Remember, yeah, the Dolphins are already tanking.
• 11:01
  They assigned the perfect quarterback to tank with to make
• 11:03
  sure they get them. But.
• 11:06
  I would say, yeah. So I mean, it's a fair #7 to one
• 11:11
  just because of the consistency. You know, I consider a bet here,
• 11:15
  but you know, the last game this year is at Texas A&M this year.
• 11:21
  So I don't know if that may affect their seeding or if they
• 11:25
  get in. But yeah, they have elite
• 11:28
  talent, just consistency. So I'm going to pass on these
• 11:30
  guys. Darren, what do you think?
• 11:32
  Yeah, I like this team better than Ohio State.
• 11:35
  That being said, I don't want them even at plus 750 at FanDuel
• 11:40
  here. Obviously, Arch Manning, the big
• 11:42
  name coming back. Ryan Wayne goes back as well.
• 11:45
  I love their two running back additions.
• 11:48
  Hollywood Smothers, one of Tim's favorite running backs, Andrew
• 11:51
  Lee Brown from Arizona State. I think offensively they're
• 11:53
  going to be awesome. Defensively, a couple losses
• 11:56
  that concerned me, Anthony Hill and Michael Taffy, the two
• 11:59
  biggest ones. And again, their schedule is
• 12:03
  almost as bad as Ohio State. I mean, they host Ohio State.
• 12:06
  We discussed that already. The Ole Miss is on their
• 12:09
  schedule. They've got the neutral game
• 12:10
  against Oklahoma every year they go to Tennessee.
• 12:13
  ANMLSUI mean it's a it's a pretty pretty, I mean, I guess
• 12:17
  every SEC schedule is kind of rough, but there's some teams on
• 12:20
  the list that don't have a bad SEC schedule.
• 12:23
  Again, short number if they're in the semis or the championship
• 12:26
  game wouldn't surprise me one bit.
• 12:29
  But at 7:50, like Tim said, I mean, if I'm doing this, I'm
• 12:33
  not, I'm not putting a lot of my bankroll in in the futures
• 12:37
  markets anyway, unless it's like a win loss total or something.
• 12:40
  But yeah, wouldn't, I'd say, wouldn't surprise me if they
• 12:44
  won, but I don't want them at at plus 750, Pete.
• 12:50
  Yeah, I mean, this is a this is a good team.
• 12:53
  I I would say this is one of those situations where if not
• 12:56
  now, when, right, this is an elite team.
• 13:00
  They could still miss the playoff due to that tough
• 13:03
  schedule because they do have a tough schedule, right?
• 13:07
  And and what happens with Sark if they don't, if they don't
• 13:09
  make the playoff, what happens with Sark?
• 13:11
  I was gonna say we we did. If not now, when we did this
• 13:14
  last year at Penn State. And then we all know what
• 13:16
  happened there. Did we just curse Sark?
• 13:18
  And I think it's the same situation here, right?
• 13:20
  I mean, like, at the end of the day, you could not be more
• 13:23
  stacked to get to the playoffs and make a run than Sark is
• 13:27
  right now, right? You have an elite roster across
• 13:29
  all the units. You have coaching continuity
• 13:32
  across most of the plays, most of the coaching seeds here
• 13:37
  balanced offense and defense, right?
• 13:38
  You've got a playoff ready, you have playoff ready depth across
• 13:41
  this team. So when, when else are you in
• 13:45
  that situation? There are very few circumstances
• 13:49
  where you have this type of team ready to go with continuity and
• 13:53
  coaching quarterback high level talent.
• 13:58
  I mean, yeah, you're in the SEC. You're you're you have a tough
• 14:01
  schedule, but right, if you're going to win the national
• 14:04
  championship, this is what you've got to run to do it.
• 14:07
  So it's their time or it's bust, right?
• 14:10
  I mean, at the end of the day, if they don't do it, if they
• 14:13
  flame out and don't make the playoffs, Sark is out.
• 14:16
  You know, if they make the playoffs and and, you know,
• 14:18
  flame out there that then the question is, is Sark out?
• 14:21
  But you know, I like Sark a lot. I think he's a strategically, I
• 14:26
  really like the guy from the offensive side, but his team has
• 14:30
  not performed when they really need to in those really tough
• 14:35
  games. This is the year to prove it,
• 14:37
  Prove, do it or don't. But this is the time to do it.
• 14:40
  So I'm really interested to see what this team does.
• 14:43
  Arch was not ready last year. He's got to be ready now it's
• 14:47
  time to show. So either do it or don't, but
• 14:50
  this is the time, right? It's too short of a number to
• 14:53
  play them, so this is not a bet to make here.
• 14:56
  But from just from the football fan perspective, I want to see
• 15:01
  what they're going to do. So I'm very interested to see
• 15:03
  what happens here. And you mentioned Art, she
• 15:04
  really picked up his play that last half of the season.
• 15:06
  We didn't even mention Cam Coleman coming over from from
• 15:10
  Auburn. That might be not only the best
• 15:12
  non quarterback portal edition, might be the best portal edition
• 15:16
  out there. I mean, like you said, Texas
• 15:18
  definitely loaded, but too short a number.
• 15:20
  I agree. All right, here we go.
• 15:24
  Let's move on. We got the fighting Marcus
• 15:26
  Freeman's. Fighting Marcus Freeman's also.
• 15:29
  Said. Apparently every favorite at
• 15:31
  DraftKings is 7 to 1 Notre Dame N they are also along with Texas
• 15:36
  plus 750 at FanDuel. See, like I'm torn because I
• 15:43
  think this team can actually win it all.
• 15:47
  I just don't know if Aneus Williams is the guy.
• 15:50
  I mean, we're not going to replace Jeremiah Love or
• 15:53
  Jadarian Price. We all know that.
• 15:54
  But if you believe the Marcus Freeman talk, Aneus Williams is
• 15:58
  the real deal. He had some some good games last
• 16:01
  year, but that's a big position when it gets to a quarterfinal,
• 16:05
  semi final and finals time. I need to see it before I give
• 16:11
  my stamp of approval on the fighting.
• 16:12
  Marcus Freeman's here, but I, I, I have no problem with the
• 16:18
  defense. I have no problem with CJ Carr.
• 16:20
  I think their receiving room is actually going to step up and,
• 16:23
  and be excellent. They got a couple of Ohio State
• 16:24
  transfers. If you're going to get receivers
• 16:27
  from anywhere, you might as well get them from there.
• 16:30
  Just just show me some kind of a running game.
• 16:33
  And honestly, I, I don't know how much motivation they're
• 16:37
  using the snub. I, I don't think they got snub.
• 16:39
  I don't think they deserve to be in, but you know, they could go
• 16:42
  out there and meet everybody by 40 and it wouldn't surprise me.
• 16:44
  But until I see a running game, this number's too short.
• 16:47
  So as much as it pains me, I'm avoiding the Irish with a bet.
• 16:51
  Pete, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, it feels like
• 16:56
  Notre Dame is the eternal bridesmaid and never the bride,
• 17:01
  right? They are a really good team with
• 17:05
  a very good talent base that is always in contention, but
• 17:10
  they're never quite good enough to beat the elite teams.
• 17:16
  Like if they play an elite team in the championship game or if
• 17:20
  they're in the semi finals or something, they just don't match
• 17:24
  up right. They are just lacking somewhere.
• 17:27
  Their quarterback is lacking. Something's lacking, right?
• 17:31
  That's the issue with Notre Dame.
• 17:33
  It's been the issue with Notre Dame for some time like they
• 17:37
  just can't get the entire package together like from the
• 17:41
  positive side right now, their defense is solid, consistent.
• 17:45
  Their schedule is positive in terms of getting there.
• 17:49
  Their physical. I love their coach love their
• 17:53
  coach right all they want right experience.
• 17:57
  My concerns QB, I think you already talked about that
• 18:01
  inconsistency, but they're big game struggles.
• 18:04
  Like I don't know how many times I've bet on Notre Dame in big
• 18:08
  games and they just look flat and I don't know what it is.
• 18:13
  It's not the coaching. There's just something missing
• 18:17
  there. And it frustrates me 'cause I'd
• 18:19
  love to see this team win a natty as much as it's funny,
• 18:25
  right? Like Darren and I, I'm a
• 18:27
  Michigan guy. He's he's a Notre Dame guy,
• 18:29
  right? We spent years when we were
• 18:31
  younger yelling at each other with our team, playing against
• 18:35
  each other. We hate each other's teams.
• 18:37
  We would yell at each other about it.
• 18:39
  And yet I don't have any hatred for Notre Dame.
• 18:42
  I love. Michigan.
• 18:44
  I would love to see them win a Maddie now and I just don't know
• 18:48
  if they're going to do it anytime soon because they're
• 18:50
  always missing something and it's frustrating to me because
• 18:53
  I'd love to see them do it. And I just, I think that's still
• 18:57
  the case. I just don't know if there are
• 19:00
  the whole package to win it. And so I'm not sure they're
• 19:04
  worthy of betting on here. So that that's my perspective.
• 19:08
  So anyway. Jim.
• 19:10
  Yeah, well, they're going to be in the playoffs.
• 19:12
  I mean, they can easily finish that schedule and be ranked #12
• 19:16
  so I mean, it's almost like an automatic bid this year.
• 19:20
  So they're going to be there. I mean, they're well
• 19:22
  disciplined, they're well coached.
• 19:24
  I mean, just once they get to the playoffs, can they beat like
• 19:29
  multiple elite teams in a row? We'll see.
• 19:31
  That's all I have on them really.
• 19:33
  I just, you know, Pete, you know, had mentioned about Marcus
• 19:36
  Freeman. I mean, he's he's doing the
• 19:38
  media tours and every interview he's gone last couple weeks.
• 19:41
  He's he's taking responsibility for last year, not getting in.
• 19:43
  He's like we left doubt in every interview he's given.
• 19:46
  He's talking about we're, we're not going to leave any doubt
• 19:49
  this year. So I, I mean, they're giving 16
• 19:52
  1/2 to Wisconsin in week one. Just lay it because you know
• 19:56
  we're. Going to beat him by 30 I mean.
• 19:59
  Marcus Freeman's the kind of guy that would pull over on a busy
• 20:02
  highway and help you change your tire and then take the tire iron
• 20:05
  and like club you over the head until he's happy.
• 20:06
  I don't know, I just, I just feel like he's just going to be
• 20:10
  strolling the sidelines with the same demeanor.
• 20:12
  And if they can win every game by 40, I think they're going to.
• 20:17
  I mean, style points matter when it comes to the committee and
• 20:20
  they rank them. I just think Evanes Williams is
• 20:23
  the guy. They, they, they've got a shot.
• 20:27
  But again, even if he is, this number's too short.
• 20:28
  I can't. Until they face off against
• 20:31
  somebody like Texas in the playoffs or somebody like that.
• 20:35
  And then what happens, right? And, and I just need to see them
• 20:38
  step up and, and, and face A-Team like that and do
• 20:41
  something. Right, All right, let's go back
• 20:44
  to the Big 10. Since they dominate everything,
• 20:47
  the Oregon Ducks 9 to one at DraftKings and up to plus 850 at
• 20:53
  FanDuel, replacing both their offensive and defensive
• 20:56
  coordinators. Pete, is that problematic or do
• 21:00
  you think Oregon can win it all? Yeah, that is problematic.
• 21:04
  It's the only reason why I didn't pull the trigger in
• 21:06
  Oregon. I think Oregon is an elite
• 21:10
  upside team here. Their their their talent once
• 21:15
  again another team with a talent base strong recruiting pipeline
• 21:20
  physical roster balance team high ceiling right playoff
• 21:24
  experience Like I I love their head coach right?
• 21:27
  I love this team like this team's got moxie.
• 21:30
  They step up. I I love this team.
• 21:32
  I think they can play with anybody anywhere at any time.
• 21:37
  However, right? You nailed it right.
• 21:40
  This coordinator turnover scares me.
• 21:44
  I wanted to pick Oregon. I wanted I that was my going to
• 21:49
  be my pick here for this show today because I really think
• 21:53
  that they have the caliber, the players, I think most everything
• 21:57
  is in place and I do think that elite quarterback potential as
• 22:01
  well. I think everything is in place
• 22:03
  here for them to do it. I am just a little concerned
• 22:06
  about the coordinator turnover. Now, if that plays itself out
• 22:10
  well, then this team is is is a beast.
• 22:14
  And it's going to be really especially I think this team is
• 22:16
  going to get better later in the season.
• 22:19
  I think they're going to look a little clunky and a little maybe
• 22:24
  disjointed early in the season. But I think there's a season
• 22:28
  goes on, especially later in the season, there's nobody who's
• 22:30
  going to want to play Oregon. I think this team is going to be
• 22:33
  really, really good later in the season and there ain't nobody
• 22:37
  going to want to play them in the playoffs.
• 22:39
  That's my perspective on them. I think they're going to be
• 22:42
  really good teams. So from that viewpoint, I wanted
• 22:46
  to bet on them because I think they are going to be very, very
• 22:49
  dangerous in the playoffs. The only thing that stopped me
• 22:53
  was the coordinator thing because I just, it's a, it's a
• 22:55
  big unknown that I don't know what's going to happen with
• 22:57
  that. But honestly, I would not for a
• 23:01
  minute I, I, anybody wants to bet on Oregon, you should have
• 23:05
  at it because I, I truly think that there's a lot of upside
• 23:07
  here. So that's my perspective on
• 23:09
  them. Ted, your thoughts on the Ducks?
• 23:13
  Well, if they can withstand the physical matchups, they do have
• 23:17
  a good backup quarterback. The Nebraska kid went up there,
• 23:20
  right? Yeah.
• 23:22
  So it's our main guy. They they're, they're just
• 23:26
  reloaded with the new kid. Definitely enough talent to do
• 23:31
  it, so if they don't, it's not for a lack of talent OR a lack
• 23:34
  of uniform combinations. But.
• 23:36
  Right. So they change at halftime, put
• 23:39
  another one on. They'll win the best, best Niner
• 23:41
  award. So, so All right.
• 23:46
  Yeah, I like it. Oh, well, I don't get a say on
• 23:48
  the Ducks. That's.
• 23:49
  No, you don't get a say on the Ducks is.
• 23:51
  Your hat on too tight. Come on.
• 23:54
  But basically the good thing is what you guys already said was
• 23:57
  basically what I had in my notes.
• 23:59
  Pete talked about the quarterback and the talent that
• 24:02
  they have and the loss coordinator is concerning.
• 24:04
  And Tim mentioned that they actually do have a legit backup.
• 24:06
  And Dylan Rayola from Nebraska schedules not terrible.
• 24:12
  Michigan and Washington come there, tough Rd. games.
• 24:15
  USC and Ohio State, maybe some issues there, but we talked
• 24:22
  about Cam Coleman possibly being in the biggest portal addition.
• 24:25
  Perhaps the biggest person not going into the portal and
• 24:28
  staying put was Dante Moore. And if he's not sitting in New
• 24:33
  York as one of four guys waiting to see if he wins the Heisman or
• 24:36
  not, something's going to be really wrong here.
• 24:38
  But yeah, I, I did like Oregon as well.
• 24:40
  But yeah, that the, yeah, Bobby Moore has a great year.
• 24:43
  Now he's got to learn something under a new offense coordinator.
• 24:46
  You don't know what this defense is going to look like.
• 24:48
  They did get Koi Parrot from Minnesota.
• 24:50
  I think that's a great ad to their to their secondary, but I
• 24:54
  like them. I I didn't fire on them.
• 24:56
  I went a little longer shot here down the board, but I agree with
• 24:59
  you guys. If they won at all, no surprise.
• 25:01
  I would not be surprised at all. Had a comment asking about
• 25:05
  Racetrack Ray. What's he coming on the show?
• 25:09
  That would probably be Oregon, All for the college football.
• 25:13
  Oregon all. All.
• 25:19
  Right next, we're sticking in the Big 10 Indiana Hoosiers 16
• 25:23
  and O last year's national champions, the fighting Kurt
• 25:26
  Zignetti's also stop me if you've heard this before. 7:00
• 25:30
  to 1:00 on DraftKings, 8 to one on FanDuel.
• 25:34
  Tim, I know you love you some Indiana 'cause they beat your
• 25:38
  your Miami U in the title game. So that's right, Indiana
• 25:42
  repeating or no? I.
• 25:44
  Mean they Google them he wins they could I mean, you know,
• 25:49
  they're no longer the Cinderella team.
• 25:50
  So that'd be the one thing people are you know when you win
• 25:55
  going to get everybody's best game every week and see if they
• 25:57
  can withstand that. So the expectations are
• 25:59
  obviously sky high. Love the coach, you know, you
• 26:04
  know no nonsense kind of guy. Maybe a modern day Bill Parcells
• 26:08
  if you will. But yeah, I loved the team,
• 26:11
  loved the coach. They could do it.
• 26:12
  I would not be surprised if they did it.
• 26:15
  I won't, certainly won't. Wouldn't be shocked.
• 26:18
  I got them at +800 here. Not placing a bet on them, but
• 26:23
  love everything about them. The schedule doesn't look too
• 26:26
  horrible either. I mean, there's a few one rough
• 26:28
  stretch here in the middle, but. Yeah, I'm going to disagree.
• 26:32
  They're they're not repeating. I mean, one it's it's just so
• 26:36
  damn tough to do, but just just a ton of losses.
• 26:38
  I mean, God damn, Mendo's obviously the biggest one.
• 26:42
  D'Angelo Pons. They lost their two wide
• 26:44
  receivers, Cooper and Sarah Kail Kamar's gone from that defensive
• 26:47
  line. I do like the Josh Hoover
• 26:50
  edition. I will say that I think that
• 26:53
  might be the slightest of upgrades over Mendoza and you
• 26:57
  guys can tell me if I'm crazy there.
• 26:58
  But I mean that dude had to carry the load at TCU.
• 27:01
  He is not going to have to do that here.
• 27:03
  So that's helpful. I am concerned about his
• 27:06
  turnovers. You know, Signetti, he's not
• 27:09
  down with the turnovers and this dude's had like double digit
• 27:12
  turnovers, interceptions the last few years.
• 27:14
  So that needs to Tim, we will talk about how bad Florida
• 27:20
  State's going to be this year because.
• 27:21
  Yes, we we'll get. That.
• 27:23
  But yeah, I mean, I love the administrator, Nick Marsh to
• 27:26
  replace those guys that are leaving.
• 27:30
  And yeah, Tim mentioned the schedule they do host.
• 27:34
  Look at. That, but then going to Michigan
• 27:38
  and Washington to the two teams who I think are going to be
• 27:40
  really sneaky good this year. So they'll probably get in, but
• 27:45
  they're not repeating. I don't want none to do them.
• 27:47
  Pete. Well, number one, nobody
• 27:50
  repeats. That's not going to happen,
• 27:52
  especially coming out of the Big 10.
• 27:54
  Come on, every you're not coming out of the Big 10 with Oregon,
• 27:57
  Michigan, Ohio State, they're they're all going to have their
• 28:01
  sights set on this team. That's not going to happen.
• 28:04
  So you're not repeating #2 Mendoza was so good last year.
• 28:10
  I don't care who you bring in behind that.
• 28:12
  He was so good. He was so clutched.
• 28:16
  Like that's hard to replace. I don't care how good you think
• 28:20
  somebody is behind him that that's irrelevant.
• 28:24
  The dude was clutched and to replace that, that's hard to do.
• 28:29
  So now they're going to be a good team.
• 28:31
  They'll be fine. But they we're and I love the
• 28:34
  coach as well. Fantastic.
• 28:36
  But you're not repeating, so that's that's not happening.
• 28:39
  So that's out. I would never bet on Nobody
• 28:41
  repeats, so that's out. Yeah, it's definitely tough to
• 28:44
  do. So we all hate Indiana.
• 28:47
  So yeah, bet on them to win it all.
• 28:48
  Because. All.
• 28:51
  Right, moving on, let's talk a little SEC here.
• 28:53
  The Georgia Bulldogs, 11 to one at DraftKings, 12:50 at FanDuel.
• 28:59
  God, I hate to say this. I really like this team.
• 29:02
  If they can find a couple of people to catch the ball and
• 29:05
  remember what it's like to actually sack the opposing
• 29:07
  quarterback, this team's possibly winning this conference
• 29:11
  again. At the very least, they'll be
• 29:12
  playing the conference title game.
• 29:15
  Bye week is certainly possible. This this SEC gauntlet.
• 29:20
  No, they host Oklahoma, they go to Alabama and Ole Miss.
• 29:24
  They don't really get anybody else tough on that schedule
• 29:27
  there. I mean, if you believe in
• 29:29
  Florida, OK, that's one thing. But I mean look at that
• 29:33
  schedule. I mean come on for an SEC
• 29:35
  schedule, Kirby Kirby got must have cashed in some favors or
• 29:40
  something. But this team could win it all.
• 29:43
  I I was going to bet the these guys and I believe Tim you were
• 29:46
  going to do the same thing. But again, I went with a little
• 29:50
  higher odd team discussing down the line.
• 29:51
  So I like them. If you wanted to bet them, I
• 29:54
  would not blame you. One bet I could certainly see
• 29:56
  him at least playing for the championship at worst.
• 29:58
  Pete, what are your thoughts? Yeah, obviously it's Georgia.
• 30:04
  They're they have quality talent, elite defense, top
• 30:08
  recruiting. They're going to be physical.
• 30:11
  They have the culture in place, they have depth.
• 30:15
  All those things are there until I see an answer at quarterback
• 30:20
  like a true answer at quarterback that's consistent,
• 30:24
  that is semi elite, I don't think they can win, you know,
• 30:31
  elite games late in the playoffs.
• 30:35
  So maybe right. So maybe we'll see that play
• 30:37
  itself out, but I've not seen it of late.
• 30:39
  And I do not, I do not think we're going to see that anytime
• 30:43
  soon. But I could be wrong, right?
• 30:45
  We, I could, we could see somebody step up, but I've just
• 30:49
  not, I don't see somebody in the roster right now in the
• 30:51
  quarterback position. That excites me, but I could be
• 30:56
  proven wrong. I, I, but I, I just don't see
• 30:58
  it. And, and we, the first thing Tim
• 31:01
  said and, and you agreed with was quarterback, quarterback
• 31:04
  play #1 right. Well, who's the elite
• 31:07
  quarterback in this roster who's going to carry them through the
• 31:10
  playoffs? Who's the guy that's going to
• 31:12
  lead him to the to the natty, right?
• 31:14
  I don't see that guy. I really don't.
• 31:16
  So that's fine and all, but I really don't see that person on
• 31:20
  this roster. So it's a match up against the
• 31:23
  other quarterbacks We've talked about who's going to match up
• 31:25
  with Arch, Who's going to match up with the other guys?
• 31:28
  I don't see the guy. So that's my issue with them is
• 31:31
  they have a really good team, really good depth, really good
• 31:34
  defense, but they don't have the quarterback to me, right.
• 31:38
  He's very anti gunner. Stockton.
• 31:40
  I did not have that on my bingo card.
• 31:44
  Tim, thoughts on the Bulldogs? Well, obviously they're very
• 31:47
  well coached and they're going up against like arch and all
• 31:50
  that. They do have a Kirby Smart coach
• 31:52
  defense and you know, I saw Kirby Smart with the Zingers.
• 31:56
  They had some SEC coaches meeting or and he asked Steve
• 32:00
  Spurrier was there. He said, yeah, your daughter's
• 32:02
  must be a great realtor in Gainesville because John
• 32:04
  Summerall is the fourth Florida coach I've coached against since
• 32:07
  I've been here. So he's bringing the Zingers.
• 32:11
  So yeah, it's almost tempting to bet it because, you know, you're
• 32:14
  getting 12:50 with Georgia. I mean, yeah, I can see I was
• 32:18
  very attractive. I wouldn't turn my nose up at
• 32:20
  the bend here, but I did not so. But yeah, I think Georgia would
• 32:26
  definitely be one of the teams there at the end where they can
• 32:28
  get over to hump with the quarterback play.
• 32:30
  We'll see, yeah. We'll see.
• 32:32
  All right, moving on to Tim's favorite school, but we're not
• 32:35
  going to start with you, man. None of the Miami Hurricanes, 15
• 32:38
  to one at DraftKings, 13 to one at FanDuel.
• 32:43
  No coaching changes or coordinator changes here to
• 32:45
  report. Lucky for them, Pete is EU back.
• 32:50
  But more importantly, are they going back?
• 32:53
  I mean, they have talent. I mean, it's another school that
• 32:55
  draws talent, right? So they have depth, they have
• 32:58
  talent, they have speed, they have playmakers, right?
• 33:02
  We expect athleticism from them. So there's a lot of upside,
• 33:07
  right? But Miami is like Tim talks
• 33:10
  about all the time, like Miami is.
• 33:14
  They are a caricature of themselves.
• 33:17
  They are inconsistent, right? They can have amazingly great
• 33:22
  games or look unbeatable and the next week they come out and they
• 33:26
  look like they don't even know what the hell they're doing
• 33:29
  right. And that is Miami and I think
• 33:32
  that's the issue with them. So yeah, they'll make the play
• 33:36
  offs. I I think they'll make the play
• 33:37
  offs. I I actually do.
• 33:39
  I think they have the talent to do that, the offense, the
• 33:41
  playmakers, all of that. But but they're inconsistent
• 33:45
  coaching. We've talked about coaching many
• 33:48
  times before and all of that. I I just think that they are too
• 33:52
  inconsistent to make a run through the playoffs.
• 33:57
  I think last year was their year to do it, if they were going to
• 33:59
  do it, and I think they missed that opportunity.
• 34:02
  So yeah, so they might make the playoff, but they they are not
• 34:06
  consistent enough to to win multiple games in a row against
• 34:09
  really good teams. They're likely to shoot
• 34:11
  themselves on the foot or do something stupid.
• 34:13
  And that's just what Miami does. So which makes Tim happy, but at
• 34:19
  the end? Of the day in my notes.
• 34:21
  Yeah, to to bet on them. I mean, it's it's a little
• 34:24
  frustrating because you don't know what you're going to get.
• 34:27
  So yeah. So that's that's my breed on
• 34:29
  Miami. Especially with the quarterback
• 34:31
  plays, Mensa really an upgrade from Beck?
• 34:33
  No, no, there we go. So yeah, hopefully Crystal Ball
• 34:41
  keeps crystal balling a couple more times.
• 34:43
  It's nice to see them actually leave Florida more than once or
• 34:46
  twice this year. I think they got the at Clemson,
• 34:49
  at Notre Dame. Hopefully it's snowing in Notre
• 34:52
  Dame. When's that game?
• 34:52
  Is that like late October? Sometime in like late October,
• 34:57
  early. Hopefully winter comes early and
• 34:58
  there's like 3 feet of snow on the ground, 10°.
• 35:02
  I don't think even in Notre Dame, I don't think that's
• 35:04
  possible in October. I don't have to wait till
• 35:06
  November for that. But.
• 35:08
  Yeah, one of the rare occasions I'd be rooting for Notre Dame.
• 35:10
  But yeah, that's what I got. Consistency, quarterback play
• 35:14
  and waiting for Crystal Ball to screw it up.
• 35:16
  But they Got Talent, you know, everywhere.
• 35:20
  You can't throw a rock without hitting a good football player
• 35:22
  in Miami. The the only problem man with
• 35:26
  with what your guys are waiting for Cristobal to crystal ball,
• 35:28
  he didn't really crystal ball last.
• 35:29
  Year he didn't I was scared he did not arson Beck Carson Beck
• 35:33
  that's. What I said finally turned a
• 35:35
  corner and he's not going to crystal ball his team because we
• 35:37
  waited. We we brought it up multiple
• 35:39
  times. OK, this is a game where we're
• 35:41
  going to crystal ball. They never did.
• 35:43
  And that, that final game, he, he didn't do anything
• 35:47
  questionable, I don't think in that game.
• 35:49
  The problem I have with them is he recruited a crap ton of
• 35:53
  talent on the O line and the D line.
• 35:55
  A lot of those guys left. So we'll have to see how deep
• 35:59
  that that talent is because both of those units are, are pretty
• 36:02
  heavily affected. But yeah, Pete said they'll
• 36:05
  they'll get in the playoffs. He's right.
• 36:06
  It's the ACC. That schedule is trash.
• 36:09
  I mean, they'll they'll win 10 games by accident, but if they
• 36:13
  don't? Score any HBC, Darren, come on.
• 36:15
  Well, I've heard that rumor, but hey, they were in the finals,
• 36:19
  unlike the SEC, so it doesn't mean more there.
• 36:22
  But yeah, that, I mean, that's how they dominated their games.
• 36:25
  If you watch any of their games, I mean, they won by running the
• 36:27
  ball. Yes.
• 36:27
  Mark Fletcher's back. What kind of line is he going to
• 36:30
  run against Malachi? Tony's back.
• 36:32
  See, how is he going to have time to to do what he does if
• 36:35
  that offensive line can't protect Mensa?
• 36:37
  I like Mensa just because of mobility.
• 36:39
  If, if that O line does not come together quickly, he he can
• 36:42
  still make some things happen. I'm not sure Carson Beck could
• 36:45
  do that. But yeah, I'm not going to bet
• 36:49
  him. I think, like what Tim said,
• 36:50
  they start to play a deeper team that they might actually get
• 36:55
  exposed there. So they'll get in because of the
• 36:58
  conference they're in and their terrible schedule.
• 37:00
  Of course, I'm a Notre Dame fan. I'm bashing schedules, but yeah,
• 37:03
  they'll get in. But I I don't want any part of
• 37:05
  them. No.
• 37:08
  All right, now let's get on the lane train. 13 to one at
• 37:14
  DraftKings, 15 to one at FanDuel.
• 37:17
  We're going to let you go first, because Pete and I.
• 37:24
  He is back. He could not reach a contract
• 37:27
  with the Shah of Iran, so he is not the new Ayatollah.
• 37:31
  He is going to stay put in LSU for a little bit.
• 37:33
  He should be. He should.
• 37:36
  He should be obviously explosive potential on this team if the
• 37:42
  defense comes together. It's a very interesting bet
• 37:46
  here. Whole new NIL commitment from
• 37:50
  the team. I think someone reported upwards
• 37:52
  of 20 to 25,000,000 a year. This team is going to be kind of
• 37:56
  like Ohio State in the years to come.
• 37:58
  I do not have a bet, but I hear someone else does.
• 38:01
  So Darren, why don't you take it away?
• 38:03
  I'll. Go quick.
• 38:05
  I don't have any concerns with the defense.
• 38:06
  I think the best thing they did was keep their defensive
• 38:08
  coordinator. I think defensively they're
• 38:11
  going to be fine. They were fine last year.
• 38:12
  I don't see why that should change.
• 38:14
  My concern is with the offensive side of the ball.
• 38:16
  They've got a lot of quality pieces.
• 38:19
  I mean, Sam Leavitt, obviously the biggest one, Jordan Seaton,
• 38:23
  that offensive lineman from Colorado being another gigantic
• 38:26
  1. You know, they kept both their
• 38:29
  running backs, but the old line was terrible.
• 38:30
  So the old line looks like this definitely improved.
• 38:33
  It all is going to determine how quickly this offense comes
• 38:36
  together. And you look at that schedule
• 38:39
  right there. September is not a time when you
• 38:42
  need offensive questions. All right, I, I get their double
• 38:44
  digit favors against Clemson, but it's still Clemson.
• 38:47
  And then you got Ole Miss. Something tells me that game
• 38:50
  might be on TV. I don't know, maybe, maybe you
• 38:54
  get it on the SEC Network, Channel 4, whatever, and then
• 38:58
  A&M right after that. So I mean, yeah, I I've got some
• 39:02
  bets here and I know somebody else in this room does.
• 39:04
  This ticket could be in the trash by the end of September,
• 39:08
  but you know the the schedule's not Fern as he's just not all
• 39:13
  they get A&M at home, they get Bam at home, they get Texas at
• 39:16
  home, they do get Clemson at home, even though it's not a
• 39:18
  conference game. Tough Rd. game should be Ole
• 39:20
  Miss and Tennessee. And you know, who knows what
• 39:24
  what those guys are? I mean, apparently it's still up
• 39:25
  in the air whether Trinidad Chamble's even going to play or
• 39:27
  not. I guess the NCAA sued to to try
• 39:29
  and kick him back out of school again.
• 39:30
  So I don't know. But the offense comes together.
• 39:34
  This team will be in the playoffs and we can worry about
• 39:37
  hedging our bets if necessary. But yeah, we talked about also
• 39:42
  I'll build your bankroll. Look at those profit boots
• 39:44
  futures. Mets are perfect for profit
• 39:46
  boosts if they're available on any app because you can take a
• 39:49
  small amount of money, which is usually what they limit you to.
• 39:52
  And you can even even add those odds.
• 39:54
  I got a 20% boost here. It's why it's like, wow, how'd
• 39:57
  you get 1800 when the odds are 1500?
• 39:59
  This is how I use my profit boost.
• 40:01
  So I do have 1/2 unit on LSU to win it all at 18 to 1B.
• 40:09
  Man, I could talk about LSU for an hour.
• 40:11
  This is the fascinating team on the board, man, because you're
• 40:14
  not betting on what they were, you're betting on lane, right?
• 40:19
  And what it can do with this team going forward, right?
• 40:21
  So he clearly elevates the offense immediately, right?
• 40:27
  This is a #1 portal class. If you look at the town they
• 40:31
  brought in, this is a number one class.
• 40:34
  So they have a lead skill talent that was already in place along
• 40:39
  with the portal class they brought in, right?
• 40:41
  So scheme, lane scheme, talent in place, explosive offense that
• 40:47
  can win playoff games, period, right?
• 40:50
  High and upside, no question about that.
• 40:53
  So what the hell of their concerns, right?
• 40:55
  So year one, right? So bringing any coach in new
• 40:59
  system, all that, obviously it's an issue.
• 41:02
  Could be could be an issue, who knows?
• 41:04
  Defensive consistency is going to be a challenge, right?
• 41:08
  High roster turnover could be a challenge.
• 41:12
  SEC, you know, schedule could be a challenge, But this is a major
• 41:18
  transformation for this program. And and really, I mean, the
• 41:23
  upside is just the the upside could be incredible, right?
• 41:28
  So, I mean, there's a lot that could be happening here.
• 41:31
  So this is not a rebuild. This is a system upgrade from
• 41:33
  from that perspective. It's it, it's, it's very
• 41:36
  intriguing. They have the most impactful
• 41:39
  world class in the country. As I mentioned already, the
• 41:42
  offensive ceiling, this is national title level offensive
• 41:45
  ceiling especially mentioned quarterback and all that.
• 41:49
  I mean, it's my only concern about that.
• 41:53
  I have two, right, Two concerns, right.
• 41:55
  Number one is the turnover, right, just bringing in a new
• 41:58
  system. The second is the defence or
• 42:01
  defensive reality. If you can get past those two
• 42:03
  things, I mean, this team should be really, really good.
• 42:08
  So you know, with the number they're at, I mean, it's a
• 42:11
  really, really good bat. Was it 15 to 1?
• 42:16
  I mean, without, without the boost, it's like 15 to one right
• 42:19
  now. I mean, that's a really good
• 42:22
  number for a team of this quality with this much depth
• 42:28
  with a coach of this caliber. Like you don't get that that
• 42:33
  often. To me, it's a no brainer.
• 42:37
  So I I love it. So I'm certainly all in on this
• 42:41
  bet because I think the upside is amazing.
• 42:43
  And now could it could implode somehow, Perhaps, but I, I don't
• 42:49
  I don't see that happening. I I think this is the place
• 42:51
  where lane should be. I think it's the place he should
• 42:53
  have been for some time. The fan base has like
• 42:58
  immediately embrace the guy. So I think there's a lot of very
• 43:02
  positive things coming out of this.
• 43:03
  So I'm excited for him and them and the whole thing and yeah, so
• 43:10
  I'm all in. So this is one of one of my 2
• 43:13
  bets is LSU all day long so. Let me just put your one of
• 43:18
  those concerns of yours to eat it just a tad and then we'll
• 43:21
  move on. That's about the turnover.
• 43:23
  Well, the head coach and the OC both came from the same school.
• 43:26
  I don't there's familiarity there.
• 43:28
  Remember that's a team that won 10 games last three years and
• 43:31
  and was a big part of that team. Guys like Jackson Dart,
• 43:35
  Trinidad, Chambliss, you know who's got that same skill set?
• 43:38
  Sam Levitt. So.
• 43:40
  I know it's. The I hope it's not right, I
• 43:43
  hope is that because of that, it comes together quicker than I
• 43:46
  know. We're hoping it's the rest of
• 43:49
  the. Players I get right, if they get
• 43:50
  all on board, you'll be amazing. We could see some fireworks
• 43:54
  immediately, which would be awesome.
• 43:56
  Yeah, I don't like that they're starting against Clemson though,
• 43:58
  but if they come out and I'll feel a lot better.
• 44:01
  But anyway, all right, let's go to Texas for the last two here.
• 44:07
  The Texas Tech red rate is 15 to one at DK, 61 at FanDuel.
• 44:12
  I will start here because I don't have a whole lot.
• 44:15
  This team was a defensive powerhouse, but offensively they
• 44:19
  really struggled with was it Baron Morton, I believe was
• 44:22
  their quarterback? Well, they got possibly the best
• 44:25
  quarterback in the portal depending on who you read and
• 44:28
  Brendan Sorsby from Cincinnati. So while their offense will
• 44:31
  improve, I have a few questions about their defense.
• 44:34
  Just because they lost David Billy, they lost Lee Hunter,
• 44:37
  they lost Jacob Rodriguez. All these guys are going in the
• 44:39
  NFL. They need to be replaced.
• 44:41
  If they replace them with quality talent, this team's
• 44:43
  going to, I mean, they're already like a -, 115 favorite
• 44:46
  to win the Big 12. Like nobody else is like better
• 44:48
  than 7 to 1. So that already tells you this
• 44:51
  should be a playoff team without even breaking too much of A
• 44:53
  sweat here. I like them.
• 44:57
  Their schedule is cake. But then again, it's the Big 12.
• 44:59
  It doesn't seem like anybody's going to challenge them here.
• 45:01
  So again, as long as this offense gels, you know, they're
• 45:05
  kept their running back room intact.
• 45:07
  And again, Soresby, if he can, if he can get on the same page
• 45:10
  with the receivers quick, just like LSU.
• 45:12
  Yeah, I mean, there one of two teams whose over under win total
• 45:15
  is 11 1/2, Notre Dame being the other.
• 45:18
  So should easily be a playoff team barring some injuries to
• 45:23
  Soresby and maybe a few other people.
• 45:24
  But I like them. Pete, what do you think about
• 45:28
  the Red Raiders? I think they're intriguing,
• 45:31
  right? They were intriguing last year
• 45:33
  as well. Like the wheels came off a
• 45:35
  little bit late in the season, but they're intriguing.
• 45:39
  They spent a lot of money building this team, and I think
• 45:43
  it's a pretty good team. Can they step up in the big
• 45:47
  games? Yeah.
• 45:49
  We haven't seen that play itself out so much, but I would expect
• 45:54
  some explosive offense momentum. So yeah, I mean, I, I think if
• 46:01
  you were looking for a forget my bet later, we'll talk about some
• 46:05
  other things. But like, if you're looking for
• 46:07
  a maybe a maybe that's much a surprise team, but a team that,
• 46:13
  you know, they're a little slightly under the radar, kind
• 46:16
  of like a step or two down that could do something, you know, if
• 46:22
  all the things go right and play out correctly, this this could
• 46:26
  be one of those teams, right? I think they have some a lot of
• 46:30
  things in place here that could work out well, like the team,
• 46:35
  like the coaching, you know, I like the offense.
• 46:40
  I think they're going to be high-powered.
• 46:42
  You know, I'm not sure what the defense is going to do this
• 46:44
  year. I think it'll be good, but I
• 46:46
  don't know. So the question is, what do they
• 46:48
  do? What do they do in big games?
• 46:50
  That's the big question. But I think this is a dangerous
• 46:55
  team. It is a team that I would not
• 46:57
  want to play in the playoffs because I think they can be very
• 47:01
  dangerous and if properly motivated, can be a problem.
• 47:06
  And so from that perspective, yeah, they're they are
• 47:11
  interesting. I didn't bet them, but they are
• 47:13
  interesting. So do with that what you may.
• 47:18
  Well, Tim did something. I did something.
• 47:20
  With this Yeah, Tim, tell us why you love you some Red Raiders.
• 47:25
  Well, what did I say at the beginning of the show?
• 47:27
  Quarterback, They got the Cincinnati kid there, the shout
• 47:31
  out, Steve McQueen, he's coming in.
• 47:34
  That's a definite upgrade at the position.
• 47:36
  I'm not too worried about the defense.
• 47:38
  They're going to find people. It's Texas.
• 47:41
  Texas is just like Miami and they've got plenty of oil money
• 47:45
  to throw around the offense to be very explosive.
• 47:48
  I'm looking at this schedule and unless if the win total is 12
• 47:52
  1/2, I'm going to bet the over on this win total as well.
• 47:55
  So I don't see I don't see AI don't see a loss on his schedule
• 48:01
  at all. So they're going to be in the
• 48:03
  playoffs are going to be there at the end 16 to 1.
• 48:06
  So I hope they put up the thing here.
• 48:07
  I got my bet here, Texas Tech. The red rate is plus 1600 and
• 48:13
  that was on Hard Rock Bet. That's it for me.
• 48:18
  Plain and simple. They got the quarterback.
• 48:20
  Last time we're breaking down, let's look at the team that Tim
• 48:23
  kicked to the curb. I was close to betting these
• 48:28
  guys again and. Decided.
• 48:31
  You know what A&M, poor Marcel Reed and the Aggies disowned by
• 48:36
  Tim Pete can Can you give the Aggie backers some support here?
• 48:40
  Or was Tim Wright to hop off the bandwagon?
• 48:43
  I mean, I came in today expecting Tim to be talking
• 48:46
  about Texas A&M. So Texas Tech is final and they
• 48:50
  will get in the playoff, but what do they do there is the
• 48:52
  question, right? They'll get, they're going to
• 48:54
  get in, but what do they do? Texas A&M is intriguing, right?
• 48:58
  Because I think they will also get in.
• 49:00
  They are a quiet contender. They have strong talent.
• 49:04
  You know, their their talent base is excellent.
• 49:07
  Their defense is a big positive continuity.
• 49:11
  I think their path to the SEC is positive this year.
• 49:15
  Their depth is very good. Their recruiting is very good.
• 49:19
  One of the issues with A&M, I'm guessing because Tim was kind of
• 49:23
  talking about A and MA couple weeks ago and I'm guessing what
• 49:28
  would scare him away from them is potentially the quarterback
• 49:33
  play, maybe, right? And the offensive inconsistency,
• 49:38
  because that would be my biggest concerns with this team, right?
• 49:41
  QB and the offensive inconsistency, right?
• 49:45
  So to me, that's their biggest issue.
• 49:47
  So that said, right, this team, if they make the playoff, which
• 49:53
  I think they will, is a dangerous team, right?
• 49:57
  I mean, if the, if the, if they can get the QB play to be
• 50:02
  reasonably good, the rest of the team, the depth, everything else
• 50:06
  is pretty solid. They they could be a they could
• 50:10
  be a concerning team, another team that I would be a little
• 50:14
  hesitant to play. So I think they're a good team.
• 50:17
  I, I don't think they're a real major threat to win the natty,
• 50:21
  But then again, if they get the right path, if the QB play steps
• 50:26
  up, maybe. But yeah, I would not bet on
• 50:31
  them to win the whole thing. But, and again, they're a team
• 50:35
  that has enough depth where if suddenly the QB is like shooting
• 50:39
  the lights out or something, they absolutely could.
• 50:42
  So who knows? D.
• 50:46
  All right, well, we haven't had many disagreements here, Mama.
• 50:48
  Disagree. I don't think this is a playoff
• 50:50
  team. I mean, just looking at that
• 50:53
  schedule right there, yes, they only have 5 road games, but LSU,
• 50:56
  Missouri, Bama, South Carolina and Oklahoma, those are all
• 50:59
  losable. Those are all easily losable.
• 51:02
  And, and we talked about Julian saying at the start of the show
• 51:05
  about, hey, he did great against the teams he was supposed to do
• 51:07
  great against, but not when you know, he went against some solid
• 51:11
  teams. Marcel Reed is, is the same guy
• 51:14
  and he needs to improve for this team to, I think make the
• 51:18
  playoffs. I mean, I think losing KC
• 51:20
  Concepcione is going to hurt. They lost a key contributor on
• 51:23
  each of the three groups on the defense.
• 51:28
  I, I, I mean, I'm looking at the schedule while Pete's talking
• 51:30
  and I and when he said playoff team, I'm like, oh, good.
• 51:33
  We finally get to disagree once on this show on something
• 51:36
  besides Darian Mensa. I, I don't, I don't see it, man.
• 51:40
  I, I, I mean, yeah, now Marcel Reed could improve and, and, and
• 51:45
  be that guy, but that is not, it's tough.
• 51:49
  That's a tough schedule. So I but if they do.
• 51:53
  But if they. Do you're on a shoe with the
• 51:55
  quarterback? I mean, Marceau reads my guy.
• 51:56
  But I'm, I'm sure when we get to the Heisman show, we'll be
• 52:01
  talking about him again. He has another year under his
• 52:03
  belt, but my concern was all the other things that that I know
• 52:06
  Elko coaches the defense, but they lost players all over the
• 52:09
  defense. They lost the running back.
• 52:10
  He's going to be in the NFL. They lost conception, you know,
• 52:13
  and he's going to be a first round pick.
• 52:14
  So yeah. That's tough, yeah.
• 52:16
  And again, one of two teams we're talking about tonight have
• 52:18
  to replace both coordinators. Yeah, it's tough.
• 52:21
  And now Marcel Reed's got to learn a new system.
• 52:24
  I'm sure it'll be the same system they got to find somebody
• 52:27
  else to, I mean. Well, they got, well, Buster
• 52:29
  Faulkner from Georgia Tech. So, I mean, they definitely got
• 52:31
  themselves a good one. But yeah, I don't, yeah, I don't
• 52:36
  think this is a playoff team. Well, those are the top though.
• 52:40
  Yeah, here we go. Those were the top, you know,
• 52:42
  the 10 of according to FanDuel and DraftKings.
• 52:45
  Let's talk a couple long shots. Go crazy, Pete.
• 52:48
  You've got a weird one here, piqued by interest.
• 52:52
  Let's hear it. Yeah, wow, That's a lot of
• 52:55
  numbers. All right, so I I threw what
• 53:00
  yesterday, I think because I was talking to Tim on a Tuesday
• 53:03
  night and they were 100 to 1. I didn't bet anything.
• 53:08
  And then we were putting these graphics in order and I was
• 53:10
  taking a look at the odds and I'm like, oh, they went up to
• 53:14
  125 to 1. And then the next day I message
• 53:16
  said, Tim, we're going to need a graphic for BYU because I just
• 53:19
  to win it all. We talked about shopping around,
• 53:24
  especially in futures markets. DraftKings, BYU is currently
• 53:28
  sitting at +7000 at fan or not. FanDuel Bet MGM, they're sitting
• 53:35
  at +8000 at FanDuel they're at plus 12,500.
• 53:39
  That's a discrepancy. This is partially a number play.
• 53:45
  125 to 1 is incredibly juicy. Let's remember Indiana was 100
• 53:49
  to one pre season last year. But if you just look at this
• 53:52
  team, I mean, defensively this team is always solid.
• 53:54
  They don't lose a lot of players to the NFL.
• 53:57
  They brought in Cade Uluave. I'm probably pronouncing that
• 54:00
  wrong lineback from Cal who had like 97 tags last year.
• 54:03
  So he's probably going to help anchor that defense.
• 54:06
  I mean, you know, playing in BYU with that elevation, not the
• 54:09
  easiest place to go in and come out with win.
• 54:11
  They're running back. LB Martin is back and Tim's
• 54:15
  favorite player, number 47, Baer Bachmeier, his first year was
• 54:19
  really, really good. And this guy didn't even show up
• 54:22
  on the campus till June. So he missed all of spring
• 54:24
  practice. And still, if it wasn't for
• 54:26
  Texas Tech, they'd have been undefeated and a playoff team.
• 54:29
  So looking at the schedule, I mean, they go to TCU, maybe
• 54:33
  that's their toughest Rd. game, but there's no Josh Hoover.
• 54:36
  They host Arizona, they host Arizona State.
• 54:39
  They do host Notre Dame in October.
• 54:42
  That'll be interesting. And while that won't affect the
• 54:44
  Big 12 title, the team they had the most trouble with, Texas
• 54:48
  Tech, they had two loss last year, both to Tech Texas Tech's
• 54:50
  not on the schedule. Everybody's trendy pick for this
• 54:54
  conference. Houston is also not on the
• 54:55
  schedule. So at this number, I certainly
• 55:00
  see a scenario where they could be in the Big 12 title game.
• 55:03
  And I mean, you know, you play that extra conference game,
• 55:06
  maybe the committee gives you a look.
• 55:08
  Remember, they were one of the teams that some people thought
• 55:11
  and they should have been in, but, you know, didn't get in.
• 55:15
  So maybe they get a little a little payback this year.
• 55:17
  But I I don't, I don't know, maybe the number's ridiculous.
• 55:21
  I mean, yeah, it is ridiculous. But this is a team.
• 55:24
  They got a solid quarterback play, they got a solid running
• 55:26
  game, they got a solid defense. They play in a place that's
• 55:28
  tough to win if you're a visiting team at this number.
• 55:33
  I I just could not not attend it.
• 55:36
  So why? Not.
• 55:37
  I have 1/2 unit on BYU to win it all 125 to 1.
• 55:41
  Tell me I'm crazy guys. I'm fine with it.
• 55:43
  They're crazy, but we love it, so it's great.
• 55:45
  That's not a bad bet, really. I mean that that's possible.
• 55:48
  That's not a bad bet. So, well, we got Saratoga Ray
• 55:51
  chiming in. He's on.
• 55:52
  He's all over Kansas State this year.
• 55:56
  Kansas State. I like the.
• 55:57
  Head coaching move they made. I do so.
• 56:01
  I. Like Peter, you've you've got a
• 56:03
  long side here, don't you? I do.
• 56:06
  Where's my slide? Oh, there it is all.
• 56:09
  Right, people hear me now, believe me later.
• 56:11
  All right, so so Oklahoma is is my bet.
• 56:17
  So this is a blue blood program, right?
• 56:20
  Strong recruiting base. So can you know continuity and
• 56:25
  roster this? So QB upside is there's a lot of
• 56:30
  upside with that QBQB position. So defense is trending upward.
• 56:36
  So it's been a little bit of an issue, but I think it's trending
• 56:38
  upward. Favorable path versus SECSCC
• 56:41
  teams. So, I mean, I think, you know,
• 56:44
  at, you know, what is it 35 to 1?
• 56:46
  You know, obviously, you know, it's a bit of a long shot here,
• 56:50
  but I like to play two things, Darren asked way back at the
• 56:53
  beginning of this pod, right? How do I look?
• 56:56
  How do we look at teams? How do we think about what we're
• 57:00
  doing? I generally look at two things,
• 57:02
  right? Number one, I'm looking for a
• 57:04
  team that I think absolutely has a clear path to win that is in a
• 57:11
  reasonable betting position, right?
• 57:14
  That's that's that's Lane, that's LSU.
• 57:17
  We also look for another team that if things play out properly
• 57:22
  and they're a little bit longer odds could actually make a a
• 57:27
  reasonable run at winning the natty.
• 57:29
  And that's where Oklahoma falls in here, right?
• 57:32
  This is a really good team, a blue blood program, quality
• 57:35
  talent across the board. And what they really need is, is
• 57:39
  quality quarterback play. If they get quality quarterback
• 57:42
  play and consistently, this is a team that can beat anybody
• 57:46
  anytime and I truly believe that.
• 57:49
  So that's what I'm looking for here with this team.
• 57:51
  I'm not betting on them because of the best team.
• 57:53
  I'm betting on the number because at 35 to 1, you know,
• 57:58
  this is a team that can match up with anybody anytime, right?
• 58:01
  So I do believe they can beat, you know, these some of these
• 58:05
  other teams, all these other teams will be talked about in
• 58:08
  the right circumstances at the right time.
• 58:11
  And because of that, I believe that there is potential here for
• 58:14
  them to get in the playoff and roll through.
• 58:18
  You know, it's not high potential, but there is
• 58:21
  potential here. So I do like this team.
• 58:24
  I do like the the structure, I do like their depth.
• 58:28
  And I think if that quarterback play steps up, I think there is
• 58:32
  a lot of potential here. So that's why I'm playing this
• 58:34
  team and I'm excited at the 35 to 1.
• 58:38
  They could pay back very nicely. So I'm doing a full unit on
• 58:42
  Oklahoma 35 to 1 to have a chance to bring me some scratch.
• 58:49
  I love that. I mean, let's remember Mateer
• 58:51
  was kicking ass before he got hurt and that defense can hang
• 58:55
  with them. Their schedule's not terrible
• 58:56
  either. I mean, they if they get through
• 58:58
  their their first five games, I think they go to Michigan, they
• 59:01
  go to Georgia and then they host Texas like mid-october.
• 59:05
  But after that they they could easily run that easily.
• 59:12
  Good team, I like this team. I do too.
• 59:15
  All right. Any final thoughts on on the
• 59:17
  show before we wrap it up? No, this is fun.
• 59:22
  There's some really good. Teams here to talk about, so
• 59:24
  this is a lot. Of fun.
• 59:25
  We're back. Let's wrap this up all right.
• 59:31
  All right, man, I got a couple of half unit plays here.
• 59:35
  LSU at 18, O1 profit boosted. Shout out to Bet MGM for giving
• 59:39
  me that in the middle of a random January and I think this
• 59:44
  is a decent play at the number half unit on BYU to win the
• 59:49
  whole thing at 125 to. One OK and I've got 1 unit on
• 59:54
  Texas Tech plus 1600. That's my only bet.
• 59:57
  I was boring to not do a long shot this year, Peter.
• 1:00:01
  I am on the lane train with Darren, LSU fifth plus 1500, and
• 1:00:06
  I just talked about my Oklahoma bet.
• 1:00:07
  I think if things play out well, it's a team that could actually
• 1:00:10
  make a run. So plus 3500.
• 1:00:13
  So great to have you all here. Thank you to everybody for
• 1:00:18
  watching along with us. Thanks for the left to comment.
• 1:00:21
  We're back into the swing of things.
• 1:00:23
  We'll be back in a couple weeks with our first of our conference
• 1:00:26
  previews. Please don't forget to like and
• 1:00:28
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• 1:00:31
  Spotify if you're listening there too.
• 1:00:33
  Thank you all very much and we'll see you in a couple weeks.