Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 208: Tyson Closure, Brazilian Beef, and Market Manipulation? A Full Cattle Market Breakdown with Dan Gerhold and Samantha Cozza-Wright
Transcript
- 0:00Today we are breaking down the cattle markets.
- 0:03Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I hope that you are having a
- 0:06wonderful day with your family. Today we are bringing on Dan and
- 0:10Samantha once again to breakdown the cattle markets.
- 0:14What is happening in the world right now of commodities, live
- 0:17cattle and current events? We have quite a bit to talk
- 0:21about this week. From the last time that we
- 0:24talked, we had the Lexington plant closed down through Tyson.
- 0:27We have some news on Brazilian beef.
- 0:30We have some news on the Catalan feed report.
- 0:32There is just so much to break down in today's episode.
- 0:36Dan and Samantha and I do all of that for you guys.
- 0:39And I hope that if you're listening to this on
- 0:41Thanksgiving that you are able to sit back and maybe enjoy a
- 0:45steak instead of some Turkey today.
- 0:47But if you are enjoying Turkey, I won't judge you too much.
- 0:50I hope you guys have a great rest of your day.
- 0:52Thanks for listening to another episode and let's go ahead and
- 0:55hear from Dan and Samantha on their thoughts on the cattle
- 0:58market. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
- 1:04podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
- 1:07industry insights and the update shaping agriculture today.
- 1:11I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
- 1:14agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
- 1:17Now let's dive into today's episode.
- 1:26Dan, Samantha, welcome back to another podcast.
- 1:29How is life in western Kansas and Iowa treating us this week?
- 1:35Pretty good. Going to see some drops in
- 1:38temperature next week, mostly highs of 30s.
- 1:41So we're getting right in winter here.
- 1:44How about you, Dan? How is life in the Corn State?
- 1:48Windy yesterday at 5:00. There's no corn standing in the
- 1:51field anymore because it'd all be flat today.
- 1:55Winter's here. Yep, it's time.
- 1:58It is time. It is time.
- 1:59I've got all of my sweaters out. I put away all of my warm
- 2:03weather clothes when I got back from my trip.
- 2:05It is, it is here. So I gotta love it.
- 2:09Gotta love it. Well, what's happening in the
- 2:11markets this week, guys? Well, I think we have some
- 2:14really big talking points to cover today since we last
- 2:18stopped on here. It's only been a week, but with
- 2:21everything going on, it seems like it's been a month.
- 2:23So, you know, you got the removal of the Brazilian beef
- 2:27tariffs, Tyson's announcement of their the closing of their beef
- 2:31processing facility in Lexington, plus a Catalan food
- 2:34report that came out last Friday, like kind of got
- 2:37overshadowed. They're in the mix of things.
- 2:39So I kind of want to hit on that a little bit before that gets
- 2:43pushed to the sidelines. But overall, I don't think it
- 2:46was too painful that we've got, you know, Dan, wishing for
- 2:49another government shutdown over here.
- 2:52I was surprised to see a cattle on feed pass estimates.
- 2:56They came in at 98.7% of a year ago versus that 97.9% that they
- 3:03estimated. So not bad really the big
- 3:06picture of this report for me, we placed more than we killed
- 3:09significantly. So I mean by 342,000 head there
- 3:14in the northern Plains. So that being said, I'll get
- 3:17right into it. I mean, with those numbers, it
- 3:20really is hard for me to justify that Nebraska plant closure
- 3:25based on tight supplies. I mean, yes, our cattle numbers
- 3:28are low, but you got to also keep in mind Iowa and Nebraska
- 3:32placements actually came in higher than last year's.
- 3:35And there's been a backlog of fats in the north for months.
- 3:38I mean, this isn't the first time that we've seen Packers cry
- 3:41tight supplies. We've seen it before, even when
- 3:44they were far better off on cattle numbers than we are now,
- 3:47and that's even when slaughter numbers were up.
- 3:50So I won't beat around the Bush. I think a lot of it was market
- 3:54manipulation. I think it's monopolization.
- 3:57And unfortunately, I mean, they succeeded.
- 4:00We were limit down on Monday immediately after the board
- 4:03opened up. Cattle feeders are taking lower
- 4:06bids this week. Seeing 2O72O8 on your negotiated
- 4:10fed cattle trade. And I mean that's what happens
- 4:13when you've got 4 big companies controlling 85% of the market.
- 4:18We've seen what they're capable of.
- 4:20There's been a lot of lawsuits come to head, you know, this
- 4:22year over them price fixing pork, beef, $140 million was
- 4:28paid by Tyson just this year. And as huge as that number
- 4:32sounds to us, it really doesn't make the slightest number of
- 4:36dent in their revenue. So matter of fact, Tyson's
- 4:39revenue as a whole was actually at 2.1% this year.
- 4:42And that's just Tyson. I mean, we're not even talking
- 4:44about the three other major beef Packers.
- 4:48I mean, heck, JBS came out with record high revenues last week.
- 4:51Bottom line, I think they're going to drive up beef prices,
- 4:55cattle prices lower, and not only will they save money doing
- 4:58that, but they'll make more money on what they kill.
- 5:02So I think a lot of people have kind of resorted that.
- 5:05Tyson's inventory from Lexington will be rerouted to North Platte
- 5:10US sustainable beef plant, smaller localized plants that
- 5:13are dotted throughout the area. I think that's that'd be great.
- 5:16And if we can shift these cattle to local owned processing
- 5:19facilities than one of your BIG4.
- 5:22But I think lower slaughter capacity could be a concern if
- 5:25we don't have more of those available.
- 5:27So that's also keep in mind that's only available if these
- 5:31feed yards are already aren't in an AMA contract with one of the
- 5:35big four. I mean, meaning they committed
- 5:37100% of their inventory to 1 Packer.
- 5:40So that being said, what happens when these feeders have an AMA
- 5:44contract on it and the Packer doesn't show up?
- 5:47I mean, they've got market ready cattle backed up.
- 5:50Could that be part of the backlog and feeders in in the
- 5:53North? I mean, it could, but I think
- 5:55really the point of this, it goes a lot deeper than meets the
- 6:00surface. So also something to keep in
- 6:02mind, Tyson has a processing plant under construction in
- 6:06Amarillo. I honestly wouldn't be surprised
- 6:08to see them build another one in the next year or two.
- 6:11I definitely wouldn't take this closure as news that they are
- 6:16downsizing or anything like that.
- 6:19They aren't going to just hand over that market share on a
- 6:22silver platter and welcome in this extra competition.
- 6:26So I'm sure they've got something in the works.
- 6:29But moving on, you've also got the most recent 40% tariff
- 6:34removal on Brazilian beef. So as those cheap imports start
- 6:38to funnel in, I think that's going to give the Packers more
- 6:41leverage in the markets. You know, I realize most of
- 6:44those cuts are going to be your grinding cuts for burgers and
- 6:47ground beef, but the Packers I think are, are very likely to
- 6:51mix these cheap imports with our quality product.
- 6:55You know, slap AUS label on it, market it just the same.
- 6:59But I sure as heck is it going to bring down beef to the
- 7:02consumer. Really the only people that have
- 7:06seemed to cut the brunt of it are producers.
- 7:08And you know, we don't get a dime from beef unless you're
- 7:11buying it completely direct and most people aren't.
- 7:15So really big picture cattle values have fell 20% off their
- 7:19highs. I know beef isn't 20% cheaper in
- 7:21the store. So it doesn't make a lick of
- 7:24sense to crash our our market. That being said, the
- 7:27fundamentals are still very much in our favor for the market to
- 7:30pull out of this domestic demands very high.
- 7:33Our bottle numbers are still drastically low.
- 7:36That hasn't changed any, not yesterday, not in the last month
- 7:39and 1/2 in order to justify, you know feeders falling off $80 a
- 7:44hundredweight or fats to fall off $40 a hundredweight.
- 7:48I don't know that we will get back to the highs that we were
- 7:51at, but I think there is huge potential for recovery.
- 7:56But that being said, the board set spaces for cash.
- 7:59So the futures market has to stabilize and find its footing
- 8:03before cash is going to. My question at this point, and
- 8:07I'm sure everyone else is where's the bottom of the
- 8:10market, you know, is the media, the presidential administration,
- 8:14the big four, are they going to throw more bearish news at it,
- 8:17at us? I mean, I don't know, I wish I
- 8:19did. The fact that we were asking
- 8:22this question, I think it's very frustrating in itself.
- 8:26And really the only accurate way I can answer that is with a
- 8:30crystal ball. You know, I mean, I just I don't
- 8:32know, but that's what we have Dan for.
- 8:35So Dan, what do you have for us today?
- 8:38If. You want the good news and the
- 8:39bad news. Give it to all.
- 8:42All of it. Give it to a straight.
- 8:44I look back at the last month, 5 weeks, whatever you want to call
- 8:48it, the government basically telling us we have to become
- 8:50competitive with the rest of the world, with South America.
- 8:53I mean, obviously we're, you know, if you look at Australia's
- 8:57prices, we're very, very competitive at the retail
- 9:00counter. But South America wholesale,
- 9:03we're not. They can beat us up and down.
- 9:05Hands down, they're the cheapest place to raise it.
- 9:07It costs are not as high. Obviously we don't want to turn
- 9:10into South America and I think that's a poor decision.
- 9:13But if you're going to bring meat in, you're going to shut
- 9:16down the plants. They're telling us get
- 9:18competitive or, or you're going to get out.
- 9:20So I'm not the big picture. I'd like to give you a glimmer
- 9:24of hope and be optimistic because we have sold this market
- 9:27off a long ways and you know, it's, it's very common to see us
- 9:32get a bounce. I know there are a lot of
- 9:34producers. I can hear it on the phone when
- 9:35I'm talking to them. There's a lot of producers
- 9:38waiting for that exact same bounce to get covered.
- 9:40John, that makes me very, very nervous.
- 9:42In the last week, I should say in the last three days, there's
- 9:46been a lot of producers take profit on hedges.
- 9:49You know that the term we've talked about before, the dead
- 9:52cat bounce. In the last two days
- 9:55specifically, we've seen that dead cat bounce, open interest
- 9:59drops in a market that stabilized, slash went higher.
- 10:03That's not bullish. You don't have strong new longs
- 10:06coming into the market. You're just getting out of
- 10:08hedges. That's very, very scary.
- 10:11There is the potential that within trading this week, I take
- 10:14profit on hedges. They've been upside down.
- 10:17You know, a year on a lot of these hedges, all of a sudden
- 10:20you get close to a break even. Hey, let's take some, let's take
- 10:24some of our money back, right? It's like I said, it's coming
- 10:28through the phones. OK, So then what happens when
- 10:31managed money comes back to work next week, between these next
- 10:34two, you know, between Thanksgiving and Christmas And
- 10:36they're like, oh, shoot, the government's still fighting beef
- 10:39prices. Let's get out of our long
- 10:42positions. And the potential is more down
- 10:44in this market. Very, very concerning.
- 10:47You know, more than a month ago I mentioned in one of our
- 10:49newsletters that you know I was running out of things to be
- 10:53bullish about. It took the perfect storm that 7
- 10:55things to to drive us to those insane 24250, you know cash back
- 11:02features same way at 380 in the theaters.
- 11:04It took all seven of those things in that five year
- 11:08timeline to make that happen. We ran out of things bullish to
- 11:11throw at the market. As some say, you got to feed a
- 11:14bull every day. Now we're sitting here and
- 11:16everybody's asking the question, when are we going to run out of
- 11:18bearish things to throw out this market?
- 11:21Well, on one-on-one hand, I could tell you we don't have to
- 11:24run out of bearish things. We just have to run out of
- 11:26bullish things and we might continue lower.
- 11:29On the other hand, I still have more bearish news in my pocket.
- 11:32I'm waiting to hear. So I if, if you want the bad
- 11:35news, I don't think it's over long term.
- 11:38Short term, we still might get that bounce.
- 11:40And I'm really, really hopeful we do for producers that that
- 11:43are grossly uncovered on, on calves, on yearlings, on fast
- 11:47because plain and simple, it's a shit show.
- 11:50I mean, you got you're coming into the first second quarter
- 11:54and you got break evens that are going to start pushing 250 and
- 11:57back out. And we're trading sub 210 here
- 12:00today. I just saw one come through.
- 12:02It looks like they they upped their bids in two O 8210.
- 12:06It's it's still down on the week, you know, compared to last
- 12:10week. So it's a mess, but once again,
- 12:13and I've said it 100 times if I've said it once, it all comes
- 12:16down to slaughter numbers. October, we backed cattle up in
- 12:19the north, made it, made them bigger.
- 12:20The Packers asked us to, we listed across the game was
- 12:23cheap, replacement feeders were high and make them bigger and
- 12:28they build the hole. We've we've been waiting for
- 12:30this November, December hole. They filled it.
- 12:32They got to come back and buy a few more to get through the
- 12:35Christmas rib eye demand to get their primal needs covered.
- 12:38You know, you got 2-3 weeks where we might see this thing
- 12:41stabilized here. I'm a little very, very nervous
- 12:44about Jan, Feb. We got a fresh set of credit
- 12:47cards that need paid off. He's back to school.
- 12:50He got poor weather. I mean it very, very concerned
- 12:54about that. That being said, our tightest
- 12:56supplies coming for the second quarter of 2026.
- 12:59So if we could keep our slaughter increasing, get closer
- 13:02to that 600,000, maybe pop over it.
- 13:05The Packers are profitable right now.
- 13:07I think that's optimistic. We could clean some of these big
- 13:10guys up and and maybe come February, March turn the corner
- 13:13and possibly get some leverage back.
- 13:15That being said, in order to have that leverage, you have to
- 13:19the consumer ultimately decide we need to move the volume of
- 13:22meat. It's not all about fries, it's
- 13:25also about volume. So if we get the volumes are
- 13:28flowing through the retail counter through those
- 13:30restaurants, all of a sudden the Packers don't have a choice.
- 13:33They have to ramp up the kill, keep that high.
- 13:35Then they have to turn around and be aggressive out in the
- 13:37feed yards out the country and and buy more cattle.
- 13:41So there is that potential for the spring bounce.
- 13:44I I don't want to discount that and I don't want to be negative
- 13:49all the time, but give me a legitimate reason why managed
- 13:52money should come in and buy this with long staying powder.
- 13:54I don't know. It's yeah, placements to get
- 13:57could drop and they could see that every tension.
- 14:00I mean, you could, that's the thing.
- 14:02It's a big market. For every bowl there's a bear.
- 14:04You know, you, you could make a case and I'm not going to
- 14:07disagree with the necessarily 100%, but at the end of the day,
- 14:12the trend is your friend, in my opinion.
- 14:14And the trend has changed and we're in a downtrend until I see
- 14:17new longs coming into this market, you know, and those open
- 14:19interest reports every morning, I can't get wildly bullish.
- 14:23And you know, I, if I had one fast here for every time
- 14:27somebody told me that the fundamentals haven't changed, I
- 14:31think I'd be able to fill up that Tyson packing plant.
- 14:33They just shut down because it's very, very common.
- 14:36I'm hearing it everywhere. And the fact of the matter is
- 14:38the fundamentals have changed. It's all, like I said, prices at
- 14:43the grocery store, prices at the wholesale level.
- 14:45They haven't drastically changed, but volume has.
- 14:49OK, so there's a change on your demand side.
- 14:51Not uncommon for this season, right?
- 14:54On the other side of it, though, we cut the slaughter at the
- 14:57wrong time. We backed up, we filled a hole.
- 14:59Now you got bigger, heavier cattle.
- 15:01The weights are proving it. Yes, we could get those cleaned
- 15:04up. Fundamentals have changed.
- 15:06It's the potentials there for that balance.
- 15:09And I'm I'm really, really hoping and praying that we get
- 15:12that because a lot of people need it.
- 15:14But the fact of the matter is, is it's the trend is your
- 15:17friend. Yeah, definitely.
- 15:19Dan, Are you ready for the government to shut back down in
- 15:21January again when they do this extension thing so we don't get
- 15:24any more cattle on feed reports? Down for good on the melt green
- 15:28ship. Everything else down we don't
- 15:30need it. My opinion?
- 15:32I mean, we survived 40 days just fine, so.
- 15:36Nobody, Nobody died. How did that happen?
- 15:39I think there's probably a very large part of the population
- 15:42that would disagree with you on that.
- 15:43But I would be OK with not having a cattle on feed report
- 15:46this week. Like I think we'd be OK with
- 15:49just pushing that a little bit further because like you said,
- 15:52Samantha, trickle down effect of so much that we're seeing right?
- 15:57Like there is. So we've we talked five days
- 16:00ago, guys like we were just chatting the three of us.
- 16:04And so much has happened between Tyson plants shutting down and
- 16:08Lexington, which is such a massive impact to that community
- 16:12too. Because I lived near Lexington
- 16:15for 2 1/2 years of my life. Like Lexington was where we went
- 16:18to Walmart type of situation in rural Nebraska and that is going
- 16:22to be a major impact to that community.
- 16:24So, so that is I saw that and it's insane because I don't, I
- 16:29don't see the numbers backing it, right.
- 16:30Like demand is still there, supply is still there.
- 16:34We have seen some lowering of things, but that's a whole
- 16:36nother can of worms. And then the Brazilian beef
- 16:40situation and just everything else that we've been seeing in
- 16:43the news. There has been a lot of push on
- 16:45this cattle market. I really wish that this was.
- 16:48So this is going out on Thursday guys, to everyone listening,
- 16:50we're recording this the day before Thanksgiving.
- 16:52I really hope everyone listening to this, if you're listening to
- 16:54this on Thanksgiving that you're having a steak or some prime rib
- 16:57or something like that, like throw that Turkey to the curb.
- 17:00We all know Uncle Sam can't like not Uncle Sam uncle.
- 17:04What do they call him for Thanksgiving?
- 17:07Whatever his name is, your uncle can't cook a Turkey to save his
- 17:10life. And it's the driest thing on
- 17:12earth and it probably tastes equivalent to the Sahara.
- 17:14So just put the Turkey away. Go grab yourself a steak from in
- 17:18the freezer. Go put that on the grill, Dan,
- 17:20I'll make you happy and I'll say grill.
- 17:22Go put that on the grill and have yourself a great
- 17:26Thanksgiving with beef. There you go.
- 17:30Dan, what are your thoughts on the Lexington plant closing
- 17:33down? You know, it's not specifically
- 17:36us, but everybody in this industry has been speculating
- 17:39for the last two years one, this was going to happen and which
- 17:42plant was going to be. You know, I think you and I
- 17:44specifically talked about it. My opinion at the time was we
- 17:47were going to shut a southern plant because that's where the
- 17:49tightest numbers were. Inevitably they they dropped a
- 17:53shift down in Amarillo. That's a big problem.
- 17:57The numbers are tight enough though.
- 17:59The big problem exists if they don't bring that shift back on,
- 18:02if the numbers do start increasing with the with the
- 18:05border opening, yeah, border open, inevitably it it, it all
- 18:11comes down to leverage. So Lexington was very, very
- 18:15hardcore. A lot of those cattle were
- 18:17captive MAS, they had their agreements, formulas.
- 18:20So now you took cattle that were set for that and they've got to
- 18:27go find a home in a different packing plant.
- 18:29So that that causes another problem.
- 18:32OK. So are those going to go to, you
- 18:33know, Phinney County, are those going to go to, you know, plat,
- 18:38are those going to go to you've got a lot of choices.
- 18:42This is a good thing. Or I would say the smaller
- 18:45Packers in the area are in the state of Nebraska because we
- 18:48didn't drop one of those guys. Inevitably it it doesn't help us
- 18:53long term. From what I understand, it is
- 18:56one of the more inefficient plant Tyson bones.
- 18:58So that makes me feel like it's easier to swallow, but at the
- 19:03same time messes with a lot of people's lives, you know, and I
- 19:08think this has a very long tail on it.
- 19:10I I would love to give everybody a ray of sunshine and tell them
- 19:14somebody's going to step in and bite it and reopen it.
- 19:17But I doubt it based on past performance with Tyson.
- 19:20It doesn't happen. So it's like I said, this could
- 19:24have a very, very long tail. We did.
- 19:26We don't like losing kill capacity.
- 19:29Yeah, it's, it's happening at a time.
- 19:31Not surprising because numbers are so tight.
- 19:34But actually next year, if I look at next year, I can make a
- 19:38case that there's going to be more feeder Gale available next
- 19:40year, you know, next fall, next winter.
- 19:42All of a sudden you're increasing your supply pretty
- 19:44quickly. Now what happens?
- 19:47So we'll see how it all shakes out.
- 19:50But yeah, big loss for the cattle producers long term, big
- 19:54picture. Yeah.
- 19:56I mean, we've seen the stats once plants close down, the
- 19:59probability of them opening back up is so low.
- 20:03And so I think that that's what the concerning aspect about this
- 20:06is like. The stats are the proof is not
- 20:09in the pudding there, right? Like it once plants close,
- 20:12reopening is not a super common thing.
- 20:15And so, yeah, I it's going to be very interesting to continue to
- 20:19see how this develops because I was just having a conversation
- 20:23with someone about it yesterday and I was like, I simply don't
- 20:25know enough about this. Like, we know what they've told
- 20:30us. We know what is happening right
- 20:33now, but how this is going to continue to impact the cattle
- 20:36market, especially like the feeder cattle market in
- 20:40Nebraska, where everything's going to go, how that's going to
- 20:43shift supply, demand, all of those things.
- 20:45Like we just, we don't know yet. We don't know until we're kind
- 20:48of forced to be in that situation and see just how the
- 20:51movement of cattle shifts and what happens there.
- 20:54So, yeah, definitely something to keep our eye on.
- 20:58Samantha, any other thoughts? I think just expanding on what
- 21:01Dan said, the probability of someone coming in and running
- 21:05that facility is very low. I mean we saw them close at
- 21:08Norfolk plant in 2006. They stripped it as a beef
- 21:12processing facility and you know it still rots to this day.
- 21:16They're not going to sell it. I doubt if they do, I'm sure
- 21:19they'll put some sort of non competitive clause in there so
- 21:22it can't operate as a beef processing facility and pose
- 21:24more competition to them. As we talked about supply and
- 21:27demand shift further into the year, like Dan said, maybe we
- 21:30our placements go up, maybe we start seeing the effects of
- 21:34opening that S border and they start to slowly trickle in.
- 21:37On the other end of that, I was in the camp that we were
- 21:40retaining heifers for the longest time if we had the means
- 21:44if we could. But now I'm seeing more
- 21:46producers come out and say, well, prices fell off, we held
- 21:50on to these cattle too long and we aren't retaining anymore.
- 21:53You know, we have to sell them off and get some sort of profit
- 21:56to be able to continue operating for next year.
- 21:59So we'll see what the effects of that are.
- 22:02Yeah, definitely. Dan, what are your thoughts on
- 22:04heifer retention? I know this is something that
- 22:06you and I have talked about off and on quite a bit and I kind of
- 22:10know where you were a few months ago.
- 22:13But do you have any updated thoughts on where we are just as
- 22:15far as heifer retention, herd rebuilding phases, all of that
- 22:19goes? Simple for me.
- 22:20You talk to the fence builders and the veterinarians and
- 22:23they'll tell you whether or not it's happening.
- 22:24And lately I've up until this news last week, I've heard a lot
- 22:29of it was happening. So how that shakes out, you
- 22:32know, I've talked to a couple guys who said, well, I'm not
- 22:35selling my heifer because she's not worth 22 grand anymore.
- 22:37I'll keep her and make a cow out of her.
- 22:39And and then I've heard the other side of it.
- 22:41I'm going to sell the heifer and I'm going to, you know, buy back
- 22:43the cow in a year or two when the market's lower.
- 22:45I've heard both ways. Inevitably, I think part of the
- 22:48reason why our Peter Cash supplies are going to jump next
- 22:51year is that there he heard you. You got the potential for
- 22:54another, you know, three 400,000 head of beef on dairy calves
- 22:59next year. I also think, you know, a little
- 23:02off that topic. I also think cow slaughter ramps
- 23:04up in a big way next year. Your dairy herd, your beef herd
- 23:07both got a year older. And to be honest, the consumers
- 23:11are are complaining about the hamburger price.
- 23:13Yes, steaks are high, but the the hamburger is the one that
- 23:16hit the middle and lower class people.
- 23:18So throwing the Brazilian imports, you know, throwing all
- 23:21a fresh set of quotas for all imports and throwing increased
- 23:24cow slaughter. You could see hamburger go down
- 23:27next year and actually steaks and all your medals, your prime
- 23:30will stay high. So it's going to be a wishy
- 23:33washy year to get through, but it's a that's the market.
- 23:37It definitely is. It definitely is.
- 23:40Any other thoughts that either of you guys have as we kind of
- 23:43run out the podcast? Any other current events or
- 23:45anything else that we need to hit on?
- 23:47Pick your brain a little bit, Dan, As far as input costs,
- 23:51especially on corn, where do you think the grain markets going to
- 23:54go? The guy in the background here,
- 23:56when he heard that, he just stuck his hand up in the air and
- 23:59pointed higher. But that's of course a guess
- 24:01from him. Like the rest of us, inevitably
- 24:04there's a market that did the opposite of what livestock did.
- 24:07Low prices are trying to cure low prices.
- 24:09We've got a lot of good exports on the book.
- 24:11The basis is firming in a lot of places and the spreads are
- 24:14narrower. You know, if corn was a big
- 24:16problem, you see widespreads and you'd see soft faces.
- 24:20So both of those things that find me to be bullish.
- 24:23Do I think it's a runaway market?
- 24:24No, because it always comes back to energy for me.
- 24:27So if I look at our administration's plan to keep
- 24:30cheap energy, it's hard for me to get bullish screens.
- 24:34There is a pop. I'm I'm cautiously optimistic
- 24:37thinking we could see a pop for that 47480, maybe 495 at the
- 24:42most. I don't feel like it's a $5 corn
- 24:45market, but I hope the for the grain producers out there, I
- 24:48hope I'm proving it all. Yeah, definitely, definitely.
- 24:51It's an interesting time across all markets, whether it be
- 24:55cattle or grain markets right now, especially as we've wrapped
- 24:59up harvest for almost everyone right now or at least if you're
- 25:03in Iowa and you still that still had any corn to harvest, I don't
- 25:06think you have any anymore apparently according to Dan.
- 25:08So both of you, thank you for your time today for coming on
- 25:12and sharing just some insight and some thoughts into the
- 25:15cattle market and what what is going on in the world of the
- 25:18industry and kind of enlighting our producers on what they need
- 25:22to know. And that it's wild, it's
- 25:25volatile, and there's pretty much something around every
- 25:28single corner. I hope that the holiday maybe
- 25:31slows some people down a little bit.
- 25:32And next week when we're talking, we don't have quite as
- 25:34much to talk about. But anyways, to all of our
- 25:38listeners out there, if you guys need coverage, if that is a
- 25:41conversation that you want to chat about, make sure you check
- 25:44out the show notes down below and you can get a hold of Dan
- 25:47Samantha or anyone else on our team to chat about what that
- 25:50looks like for you and your operation.
- 25:52Dan Samantha, thank you both for your time today and to all of
- 25:54our listeners. We will see you all on another
- 25:57episode next time. Have a good one y'all.