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Michael Nathanson: Disney Going All In On Streaming · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
0:04
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
0:06
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEO, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
0:10
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
0:13
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
0:17
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. One of the more interesting
0:20
Speaker 1: stories out there in the marketplaces you look at individual
0:22
Speaker 1: companies as a Walt Disney company. Here's a company that
0:25
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago really made a hundred eighty
0:27
Speaker 1: degree pivot in their business to really focus on streaming
0:30
Speaker 1: UH and they're starting to get some rewards there. And
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Speaker 1: there's absolutely nobody better to walk us through the Walt
0:35
Speaker 1: Disney story than Michael Nathanson. Michael is one of the
0:38
Speaker 1: leading research analysts on Wall Street. He's a founding partner
0:41
Speaker 1: and senior research analyst at Moffatt. Nathan said, Mike, thanks
0:44
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. Some some numbers last
0:47
Speaker 1: night out of Disney. I'd love to get your takeaway
0:49
Speaker 1: because this is a company that right before our eyes,
0:51
Speaker 1: it's really changing its entire business, isn't it. Yep, Good
0:55
Speaker 1: morning to you, Paul Paul Um. What's amazing is, you know,
0:59
Speaker 1: two years. I give them credit because two years ago
1:02
Speaker 1: they made a really difficult decision of pulling back content
1:06
Speaker 1: that they had sold to other people and forging revenues
1:10
Speaker 1: and profits in cash and having to go build it themselves, right,
1:13
Speaker 1: and you know, people were a bit dismissive of that decision, uh,
1:19
Speaker 1: doubting whether or not they could pull it off. And
1:22
Speaker 1: what they've done in the past, you know, two years
1:24
Speaker 1: he's just remarkable, it really is. You know, almost a
1:27
Speaker 1: hundred million subscribers at Disney Plus. Um. You know, they've
1:30
Speaker 1: taken control of Hulu from comcasts and that's going very nicely.
1:35
Speaker 1: And it's really interesting to me is that then, you know,
1:38
Speaker 1: the focus from the investment community had always been on
1:41
Speaker 1: court cutting and ESPN is you know, which you know
1:43
Speaker 1: very well, and that doesn't come up anymore, right like that,
1:46
Speaker 1: those questions are no longer relevant now it's really about
1:49
Speaker 1: the size and the profitability potential of this new director
1:53
Speaker 1: consumer business at their building. So Michael, you know, obviously
1:57
Speaker 1: there are so many elements of this to talk about,
2:00
Speaker 1: but just briefly before we move back to what I'm
2:02
Speaker 1: sure will be most of the conversation. What does Doesney
2:04
Speaker 1: do with his theme parks? Does it downplay them completely?
2:07
Speaker 1: Does it make them smaller? Does it stop expanding? Okay,
2:10
Speaker 1: hi Vanni, Notice that's a good question. Theme parks are
2:13
Speaker 1: really important to the Walt Disney Company. H Here's why.
2:17
Speaker 1: Because they are a source of cash and there's a
2:19
Speaker 1: source of growth. You look at theme parks the past decades,
2:23
Speaker 1: so it has become the engine. So it used to
2:26
Speaker 1: be cable networks, but theme parks really became very important
2:29
Speaker 1: to Disney's financial picture. Um. They run the theme parks,
2:34
Speaker 1: you know, amazingly in terms of their ability to drive
2:36
Speaker 1: pricing and profits, and I think it remains a central
2:40
Speaker 1: piece of the Disney you know, the Disney machine. I
2:43
Speaker 1: think over time the question will be is when did
2:46
Speaker 1: Disney start opening up theme parks in other parts of
2:49
Speaker 1: the world. As you know, they're in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
2:51
Speaker 1: But you know, is there a Latin American theme park coming?
2:54
Speaker 1: Is there an Indian theme park coming? Um? You know,
2:57
Speaker 1: you know, I think as time goes on and streaming
2:59
Speaker 1: becomes a more successful and more global, you know, maybe
3:02
Speaker 1: Disney starts opening up theme parks in other parts of
3:05
Speaker 1: the world. But so I think theme parks are core
3:07
Speaker 1: intential to what Disney does. And Michael, I'd love to
3:10
Speaker 1: get your thoughts on their filmed entertainment business. You know,
3:13
Speaker 1: obviously just the dominant, dominant player in UM Hollywood with
3:18
Speaker 1: all the brands that they have, but now with this
3:20
Speaker 1: pandemic um the traditional windowing where they could make money
3:24
Speaker 1: in the theaters and then the pay television and someone
3:27
Speaker 1: that just you know, window after window monetize an asset.
3:30
Speaker 1: Is that permanently changed, Mike? Yeah, Paul, you know that
3:33
Speaker 1: is purbently changed. We cover the theater industry too, and
3:37
Speaker 1: and you know what what Wall Street has done is
3:39
Speaker 1: we've incentivize film studios that own GtC companies to go
3:45
Speaker 1: more direct, right, to go direct and summer and you're
3:48
Speaker 1: gonna see less films being put into theater um only
3:52
Speaker 1: the big ten poles and blockbusters. And even when they're
3:54
Speaker 1: in the theater, the question is will they be released
3:58
Speaker 1: day and date on DCC on direct consumer platforms? Right,
4:01
Speaker 1: So you know, we are applotting Disney's ability to grow
4:06
Speaker 1: their address and tumor business. And you know, Wall Street,
4:09
Speaker 1: as you know because you've been analynced like me for
4:11
Speaker 1: a while has put a very low evaluation on anything
4:14
Speaker 1: really to film, and very high valuation on things you
4:18
Speaker 1: know that are streaming. So they'll still be filmed and
4:21
Speaker 1: device question at theme parks, they're still the films that
4:23
Speaker 1: benefit the entire Disney enterprise, you know, ten poles, you know,
4:27
Speaker 1: but those are gonna be fewer and far between, uh
4:30
Speaker 1: for the industry, and Disney will move those movies much
4:33
Speaker 1: more quickly onto their own platforms to drive more value
4:37
Speaker 1: for consumers and then drive pricing. How do they keep
4:40
Speaker 1: the quality up over time? It seems like now you know,
4:44
Speaker 1: there's a writer's room for every you know, New York
4:47
Speaker 1: condo building, and they're necessary, you know, But we're getting content.
4:52
Speaker 1: I feel like the newer content out of Netflix, these
4:54
Speaker 1: these movies that they're premiering on Fridays, they're they're just
4:57
Speaker 1: they're just okay, They're not great. Can they keep up
5:00
Speaker 1: the the quality that will keep people attached to Disney Plus? Yeah,
5:06
Speaker 1: you know, that is a great question that we don't
5:09
Speaker 1: get enough of. Um there's just an assumption that you know,
5:13
Speaker 1: content easy to make, and you know, and there's not
5:17
Speaker 1: much of a of any kind of measure of of quality. Right. Um,
5:23
Speaker 1: if you look at HBO for the for many years,
5:25
Speaker 1: HBO just somehow year in year out produced great quality content.
5:31
Speaker 1: I think it comes down to, Um, the people who
5:34
Speaker 1: are green lighting these these productions at Disney, they've got
5:38
Speaker 1: really strong creative executives, and then it comes down to
5:42
Speaker 1: the people you hire to actually make this vision and
5:46
Speaker 1: and and tell the story. Um. That's the question I
5:50
Speaker 1: had for the management team a couple of quarters ago.
5:52
Speaker 1: I said, look, you know you guys, but Didney did
5:54
Speaker 1: really well? Was they made less films? Those films were better?
5:58
Speaker 1: So I don't know. That's certainly a risk. Right when
6:01
Speaker 1: you expand your your output, do you have the same
6:05
Speaker 1: quality control? We don't know. HBO has done it. But
6:07
Speaker 1: then to your point in Netflix, Netflix has a lot
6:10
Speaker 1: of things that miss. Um. You know, we're aware of
6:14
Speaker 1: the things that are really good because they become you know,
6:16
Speaker 1: front page, streaming, streaming, you know content. But there's a
6:20
Speaker 1: lot of misses. And their model it's kind of built
6:23
Speaker 1: for that because they take a ton of shots on
6:25
Speaker 1: goal with a huge budget. Did think he has always
6:27
Speaker 1: been a company that's just had less shots on goal
6:30
Speaker 1: and those shots are always gone in. It's a great question.
6:33
Speaker 1: It bears watching. But the people who are making those
6:35
Speaker 1: decisions are still top of their field and that that
6:40
Speaker 1: hasn't changed yet. I'm more worried, let's say, at HBO
6:42
Speaker 1: and A T and T, because Warner Brothers HBO have
6:45
Speaker 1: seen a change of leadership, and you wonder, like, will
6:48
Speaker 1: that lead down the road to a quality change they
6:51
Speaker 1: need to clone Joel Kinnaman. I think Michael Nathanson, he
6:54
Speaker 1: seems to be doing everything these days. Michael Nathanson, thank
6:56
Speaker 1: you so much for that wonderful analysis and context. Michael
7:00
Speaker 1: a senior research analyst at Malford Nathanson. On Disney There
7:03
Speaker 1: which is now down seven tenths of represent well. Western Union,
7:07
Speaker 1: we know the name for decades and it's a global name.
7:11
Speaker 1: Just had earnings and we've got to welcome in now
7:13
Speaker 1: chief financial officer Raj agre Wall, who is their chief
7:17
Speaker 1: financial officer. As I already mentioned, Raj, just briefly tell
7:21
Speaker 1: us about the trends that you saw during the pandemic.
7:24
Speaker 1: Did people need to use Western Union more? Hey, thanks
7:28
Speaker 1: for having me. Yes, absolutely. Um, you know, we actually
7:32
Speaker 1: saw that the need to receive money during the pandemic
7:35
Speaker 1: over the course of the last twelve months was greater
7:38
Speaker 1: than ever before. Um. We also saw shifts in terms
7:41
Speaker 1: of how people were using our business. You know, we
7:44
Speaker 1: have obviously a very broad retail network, but we have
7:47
Speaker 1: also a fantastic, um you know, well growing digital business
7:51
Speaker 1: that is now present in more than seventy five countries,
7:54
Speaker 1: and so we saw a tremendous growth in our digital
7:57
Speaker 1: business because people were looking very frequently for online ways
8:02
Speaker 1: of sending money to their loved ones. And you can
8:04
Speaker 1: imagine that during the pandemic. Um you know, in many
8:08
Speaker 1: of these other countries were going through a very difficult time,
8:11
Speaker 1: which they continue to do so, and the people who
8:14
Speaker 1: had the ability to send continue to send money, and
8:16
Speaker 1: they used our business quite frequently. So, you know, we
8:19
Speaker 1: really saw a mixed shift not only in our business
8:21
Speaker 1: but also in the market overall, where digital parts of
8:25
Speaker 1: the market really took off during the course of last year. Roger,
8:29
Speaker 1: we still have persistent higher than we would like unemployment
8:33
Speaker 1: in the United States. How has that impacted your flows
8:36
Speaker 1: and your business? Yeah, I mean, we we were very
8:40
Speaker 1: much a global business, Paul. You know, we we are
8:44
Speaker 1: present in two hundred countries and territories around the world. Um,
8:48
Speaker 1: the US is obviously a very important market for us.
8:51
Speaker 1: But yeah, we we certainly saw, you know, some impacts
8:53
Speaker 1: in the unemployment. The pandemic is not behind us yet.
8:57
Speaker 1: We need to see how things play out. We are
9:00
Speaker 1: uming that the second half of this year will be
9:02
Speaker 1: in a better position economically, not only in the US
9:06
Speaker 1: but also globally as the vaccines are more widely distributed.
9:10
Speaker 1: So we're hoping for a better second half economically. And uh,
9:14
Speaker 1: you know, I think that again, people who have had
9:16
Speaker 1: the ability to send money, people who are still employed
9:21
Speaker 1: and making money, they've continued to use our business at
9:23
Speaker 1: a at a high rate. And uh, we've also seen
9:26
Speaker 1: the amount of principle going through our business go up
9:30
Speaker 1: quite quite a bit. We grew a cross border principle
9:33
Speaker 1: by twelve percent last year, whereas the entire market was
9:36
Speaker 1: probably down a little bit. So, you know, I think
9:39
Speaker 1: we're still getting good, good traffic and people still have
9:42
Speaker 1: a need to receive money. I'm a customer myself of
9:44
Speaker 1: our business, and I've spent more money in the last
9:47
Speaker 1: twelve months and I have historically because my you know,
9:50
Speaker 1: my relatives have a need to get that money. So
9:55
Speaker 1: why the decision to increase the dividend. It's a it's
10:00
Speaker 1: really a trend. We've had a track record over the
10:02
Speaker 1: last fourteen years. We've increased the dividend by in thirteen
10:06
Speaker 1: of those fourteen years. So we have a lot of
10:10
Speaker 1: confidence in the strength of our business. We know that
10:12
Speaker 1: regenerated a strong, you know, large amount of cash flow
10:16
Speaker 1: last year, regenerated about nine million dollars of cash operating
10:20
Speaker 1: cash flow. We'll have another good year this year, and
10:22
Speaker 1: we think it's really what our shareholders want. And so
10:25
Speaker 1: we've raised the dividend um in in thirteen of the
10:28
Speaker 1: last fourteen years and this is just a continuation of
10:31
Speaker 1: that trend. And uh, you know, we're looking for good things.
10:34
Speaker 1: We have a good strategic agenda this year, and paying
10:38
Speaker 1: a good, healthy dividend there's a key part of that
10:40
Speaker 1: for us. Roger talked to us about the competitive landscape
10:43
Speaker 1: for Western Union. You guys have obviously been in this
10:46
Speaker 1: business for a long long time, have tremendous brand value,
10:49
Speaker 1: but just a lot of technological competitors, whether it's you know,
10:52
Speaker 1: the apps, Venmo or something like that. Talk to us
10:54
Speaker 1: about the competitive landscape for Western Union. Sure, yeah, and
10:59
Speaker 1: then before we have a very large and strong and
11:03
Speaker 1: faster growing digital business. Our digital business will be about
11:07
Speaker 1: a billion dollars in size this year in terms of
11:09
Speaker 1: revenue side, and we are very focused on the cross
11:12
Speaker 1: border remittance market as you know, and there are many
11:17
Speaker 1: acts like Venbo is much more of a domestically oriented
11:19
Speaker 1: product here in the US, so ours is much more
11:22
Speaker 1: about spending money all around the world, and that's really
11:25
Speaker 1: where our strength is. We have the ability to settle
11:28
Speaker 1: in a hundred and thirty currencies in a matter of minutes.
11:31
Speaker 1: We have the regulatory and compliance capabilities that go with it.
11:35
Speaker 1: We serve a number of different kinds of partners. We
11:37
Speaker 1: have a white label offering that we've you know that
11:40
Speaker 1: we're partnering with banks and other fintech type players, so
11:45
Speaker 1: we can really be the back end providers to other companies,
11:48
Speaker 1: even other digital players that may not have the reach
11:51
Speaker 1: that we do. Uh Saudi Telecom is one example that's
11:54
Speaker 1: been very successful for us in Saudi Arabia. We have
11:58
Speaker 1: another one in Russia with Spare, which is a bank
12:01
Speaker 1: is one of ourgest bank in Russia, and so we
12:04
Speaker 1: really have a number of different angles. We have a
12:07
Speaker 1: branded Westernunion dot Com offering and uh, it's you know,
12:10
Speaker 1: I use our services as well, and you can you
12:13
Speaker 1: can initiate and complete a transaction in a matter of
12:16
Speaker 1: thirty seconds, and I can deliver the money from my
12:19
Speaker 1: loved one in India in a matter of seconds. Very briefly, Ange,
12:23
Speaker 1: if fees are quite high, considering some competitors don't charge
12:27
Speaker 1: really at all, are you going to do anything about that?
12:30
Speaker 1: You know, our our fees are very representative of the
12:34
Speaker 1: costs of doing business that we you know, it's not simple,
12:37
Speaker 1: it's not free to really move money around the world. Um,
12:41
Speaker 1: you know, to to have the regulatory and compliance capabilities
12:44
Speaker 1: and to actually protect consumers in terms of when they
12:47
Speaker 1: send their money. Uh, there's a cost of doing business
12:50
Speaker 1: and two hundred markets and that's where we're doing. We're
12:53
Speaker 1: in the business to make money, and the other others
12:56
Speaker 1: who are are not charging a fee, it's not a
12:58
Speaker 1: sustainable business all for them. So that's really the way
13:01
Speaker 1: we look at it. Okay, Ros, thanks so much for
13:03
Speaker 1: joining us. Really appreciated raj Agrea Wall he's a chief
13:06
Speaker 1: financial officer for Western Union, So we were wondering about
13:13
Speaker 1: this question. We have a little bit of an insight
13:16
Speaker 1: now into the U. S. China relationship going forward. Joe
13:19
Speaker 1: Biden had his first conversation as president with the Chinese leaders.
13:22
Speaker 1: She's in pay and spoke of concern about China's coercive
13:25
Speaker 1: and unfair economic practices. Let's bring in someone who knows
13:29
Speaker 1: a lot more about all of this. Leland Miller is
13:31
Speaker 1: CEO of China beige Book International. Leland, did you think
13:35
Speaker 1: the tone was just a little bit sharp, a little
13:38
Speaker 1: bit harsh. What did it indicate to you about the
13:40
Speaker 1: relationship going forward? Well, I think the call was essentially
13:44
Speaker 1: a box checking exercise. Biden at some point had to
13:48
Speaker 1: talk to she. But then I want to talk about
13:50
Speaker 1: in the early going, there's there's nothing that that you know,
13:53
Speaker 1: that the Biden administration wants to rush on in terms
13:56
Speaker 1: of China policy. The focus is quite clearly domestic and
14:00
Speaker 1: focused on COVID. So I think that the coal set
14:05
Speaker 1: the tone that the White House wanted to to sort
14:07
Speaker 1: of lay down. You know, we're gonna be tough on you,
14:10
Speaker 1: that you are a big time competitor. Uh, this is
14:12
Speaker 1: a change relationship, but it wasn't deeply substantive. It was
14:16
Speaker 1: just sort of a box checking exercise. All right, Leland,
14:19
Speaker 1: at some point it has to be something more than
14:21
Speaker 1: a box checking exercise here. Um, it appears that you know,
14:25
Speaker 1: the US's view of China has changed since uh the
14:29
Speaker 1: Obama years. The last time President Biden, you know, was
14:33
Speaker 1: you know, in in power. There's as we're what do
14:37
Speaker 1: you think his policy will be going forward? Well, I
14:41
Speaker 1: think he he looks at his congressional majority, which is
14:45
Speaker 1: very slight and and steves very little allowance for there
14:49
Speaker 1: to be a let up in in in toughness on China.
14:53
Speaker 1: So going forward, what he's essentially planning to do is
14:56
Speaker 1: to keep most of the Trump policies intact, at least
14:59
Speaker 1: for the or term, maybe even the medium term. Uh. Now,
15:02
Speaker 1: you're you may see some good will measures. You could
15:05
Speaker 1: see the two sides decide to open consulates or you know,
15:09
Speaker 1: re re reduce each other's journalists. But essentially you're gonna
15:13
Speaker 1: have the same type of China policy carried through for
15:16
Speaker 1: a while. Now. When Biden gets into more of the
15:19
Speaker 1: foreign policy, uh, you know, COVID's passed, and you start
15:22
Speaker 1: looking at other foreign policy moves for the Biden administration,
15:24
Speaker 1: whether it's Iran, whether they get tripped up by North
15:27
Speaker 1: Korea and all of a sudden United States needs China's help.
15:31
Speaker 1: Then you may start seeing some more outreach, but right
15:33
Speaker 1: now there's very little upside for Biden to offer much
15:36
Speaker 1: to she Well, what happened with the yuan leland and
15:41
Speaker 1: what should we be on the lookout for. Is there
15:43
Speaker 1: any way that China can send a message by setting
15:47
Speaker 1: the yuan differently? Well, I mean, look, the reason that
15:51
Speaker 1: you want has been surging, uh for for for many
15:54
Speaker 1: months now is because of good reasons. Essentially, the Chinese
15:57
Speaker 1: economy has been healing much faster than than the U.
16:00
Speaker 1: S economy or or other economies around the world. And
16:03
Speaker 1: you also have higher rates in China, so there's been
16:06
Speaker 1: an appetite for for for capital influence into China, and uh,
16:10
Speaker 1: you know these are these are good reasons, but they're
16:13
Speaker 1: they're turning the situation into a problematic one for China
16:16
Speaker 1: because it's looking at its exchange rate and it's a
16:18
Speaker 1: little bit worried that you know, it could be creeping
16:20
Speaker 1: towards the towards an area where of real concerns. So
16:23
Speaker 1: you know, there are political sensitivities around where they plug
16:26
Speaker 1: the rate. But right now it's not problem territory. But
16:30
Speaker 1: if you if you see a reversal in the US,
16:31
Speaker 1: so you see some more bad news coming out of
16:33
Speaker 1: US and Europe and more good news coming out of China.
16:36
Speaker 1: This is actually gonna be a mixed bag for Beijing
16:38
Speaker 1: and the PBS, d L. And do you think the
16:41
Speaker 1: Biden administration will, I guess, re embrace kind of an
16:44
Speaker 1: internationalism approach to China, whether it's some form of the
16:49
Speaker 1: you know, the Pacific you know alliance. How do you
16:53
Speaker 1: think the US is is ultimately maybe has the best
16:56
Speaker 1: shot of achieving some of its goals visa of each China. Yeah,
17:00
Speaker 1: I mean, certainly the talking points are, you know, renewing
17:03
Speaker 1: alliances in in consultation with our allies. But you know,
17:07
Speaker 1: for for all to talk about that, that's not a strategy,
17:10
Speaker 1: that's that's a process. And so what will the bidens
17:13
Speaker 1: strategy on China and Asia at large? B That hasn't
17:16
Speaker 1: written itself yet. I think it's easy to look at
17:19
Speaker 1: this with within certain parameters and say Biden is not
17:22
Speaker 1: going to pull back the tariffs, at least in the
17:24
Speaker 1: early going. Biden is not going to pull back a
17:25
Speaker 1: lot of the technology or export controls and the early going,
17:29
Speaker 1: you know, but how does things develop from there? They
17:32
Speaker 1: haven't addressed it. Everything is part of a review and
17:35
Speaker 1: now there's reviews to review the reviews, and so this
17:38
Speaker 1: has basically been a giant punt by the administration. It's
17:40
Speaker 1: fair enough they want to focus on COVID, but at
17:42
Speaker 1: some point they're going to have to to address these
17:45
Speaker 1: and they just haven't given a you know, a preview
17:48
Speaker 1: yet of where they're going. Is there any danger in
17:50
Speaker 1: taking too stern a tone with China? I mean, obviously
17:54
Speaker 1: we saw at the end of the Top administration that
17:56
Speaker 1: there were some sanctions placed by China on some of people,
18:00
Speaker 1: the people that are in the Trump administration. I sort
18:04
Speaker 1: of wondered if that was a message to the Widen administration, Look,
18:07
Speaker 1: we want to start again, we want to start fresh.
18:09
Speaker 1: We're done with the old administration. And it seems like
18:12
Speaker 1: the Widen administrations ignored that message. If there was one. Well,
18:17
Speaker 1: I think they're smart to ignore it. Uh one, because
18:19
Speaker 1: the Chinese reactor strength, not weakness. But more telling, Lee
18:23
Speaker 1: Biden does not have a tough on China reputation over
18:26
Speaker 1: the years. I mean, as a senator, he wasn't tough
18:27
Speaker 1: on China as VT under Obama, he certainly wasn't tough
18:31
Speaker 1: on China. So this is a different political climate. I
18:33
Speaker 1: think what the what the White House would like to
18:35
Speaker 1: do right now is step the stage saying the times
18:38
Speaker 1: have changed. This president is not going to be weak
18:40
Speaker 1: on China, and I think that's setting that down as
18:43
Speaker 1: sort of the baseline, the fundamental you know, pre step governing.
18:47
Speaker 1: The relationship is actually important and it gives them a
18:50
Speaker 1: little more wiggle room to do things you know, either
18:53
Speaker 1: you know, either strongly or more weak going forward. Leilan,
18:58
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your
19:00
Speaker 1: perspective as always on all things China and Asia. Leland Miller.
19:04
Speaker 1: He's the CEO of the China Basebook International based in
19:07
Speaker 1: New York. It is time for we'll be check in
19:11
Speaker 1: with Laurence Sour, John's Tompkins University Associate Professor of the
19:14
Speaker 1: Emergency Medicine, and for once, perhaps most of this conversation
19:19
Speaker 1: will be very upbeat. Dr Sour, we have now enough
19:23
Speaker 1: vaccine apparently for everybody in the country by July. Is
19:27
Speaker 1: that does that tally with what you know? Your maths says,
19:32
Speaker 1: I think UM. Conceptually it does. So it's it's exciting
19:37
Speaker 1: to see that these contracts have been signed and that
19:39
Speaker 1: there's pushed to move to create vaccine and move it
19:42
Speaker 1: forward into the hands of vaccinators. I think UM, where well,
19:46
Speaker 1: time will tell how effective our strategies are is in
19:50
Speaker 1: the space of making sure that people are there, ready
19:52
Speaker 1: to receive it, and that we have the health care
19:55
Speaker 1: staff to deliver the vaccine. So it's great to see
19:59
Speaker 1: those numbers get up to be able to vaccinate the
20:02
Speaker 1: whole country and hopefully support vaccination efforts efforts across the globe. UM,
20:06
Speaker 1: and the key will be to convince people to take it,
20:09
Speaker 1: especially those hesitant and hard to reach population. So, Lauren,
20:12
Speaker 1: the image of the day for me as it relates
20:14
Speaker 1: to the pandemics when I saw this morning and it
20:16
Speaker 1: was of Dodger Stadium parking lot, and they had all
20:19
Speaker 1: the cones set up, all the lines set up, all
20:22
Speaker 1: the tents set up, but it was absolutely empty because
20:25
Speaker 1: they had no vaccines. Um, what is your experience at
20:29
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins in terms of supply of vaccines and kind
20:33
Speaker 1: of the rate at which you are receiving vaccines. Yeah,
20:38
Speaker 1: I mean it's a it's a I saw that same
20:41
Speaker 1: image and it is like very telling of where we
20:43
Speaker 1: are right now as a country and even as a
20:45
Speaker 1: world in delivering vaccines to people. So the creation of
20:49
Speaker 1: the vaccine and how quickly we got there so impressive.
20:52
Speaker 1: But you know, here at Hopkins we're doing we're working
20:56
Speaker 1: really hard to vaccinate our healthcare worker staff just so
20:58
Speaker 1: that we can be ready at another comes, particularly um,
21:01
Speaker 1: if we see a surge after things like the Super
21:04
Speaker 1: Bowl or with varying centering into our population. We want
21:07
Speaker 1: to be ready and we want to protect our healthcare stuff.
21:09
Speaker 1: That being said, I think what we're seeing is that
21:12
Speaker 1: there's this group of people who are ready and willing
21:14
Speaker 1: to be vaccinated, and then very quickly, once we get
21:17
Speaker 1: them vaccinated, the supplies body. So we don't always know
21:21
Speaker 1: exactly what we're going to get UM. And I think
21:23
Speaker 1: that's the story across the board is you know, you get,
21:26
Speaker 1: you get what you get when you get it, and
21:27
Speaker 1: you don't always know what it's going to look like. UM.
21:30
Speaker 1: But then I think what we're worried about seeing is
21:33
Speaker 1: that we're going to get to a certain point and
21:34
Speaker 1: then suddenly there's going to be no one who's showing
21:37
Speaker 1: up for vaccinations, and so that's that's that's the place
21:39
Speaker 1: where we're focusing right now. Yeah, that'll be difficult. What
21:42
Speaker 1: do you do with those vaccines at that point? I
21:45
Speaker 1: mean do they do they keep for a long time?
21:47
Speaker 1: Will they work next year if there's another resurgence? Do
21:50
Speaker 1: you shift them all to other countries? Yeah? I think
21:53
Speaker 1: it's going to be probably a mix. Um. The different
21:56
Speaker 1: vaccines have different storage capabilities. Um. And what we really
22:00
Speaker 1: want to focus on is making sure we're not defrosting
22:03
Speaker 1: and preparing individual doses until we have identified enough people
22:07
Speaker 1: to take that whole bio or that whole set right
22:10
Speaker 1: um and so um. The concern I think is is
22:15
Speaker 1: that we need to focus more efforts on getting to
22:17
Speaker 1: those populations that aren't just gonna be waiting in line
22:19
Speaker 1: and ready to show up for those vaccines. And I
22:22
Speaker 1: think we There is still a bit of a question
22:24
Speaker 1: on whether or not the variances will change the seasonality
22:28
Speaker 1: of the of the or the utility of the vaccine seasonally.
22:31
Speaker 1: So um, will we need regular vaccinations like we do
22:35
Speaker 1: with flu um or is this a once or a
22:39
Speaker 1: couple of times in a lifetime vaccine? I think you
22:41
Speaker 1: know there's evidence towards leaning towards that seasonality, but what
22:45
Speaker 1: we'll have to wait and see. And so we want
22:47
Speaker 1: to use as much of the vaccine that's coming off
22:49
Speaker 1: the line as absolutely possible, as soon as possible to
22:53
Speaker 1: get that protection level up um and reduce the number
22:57
Speaker 1: of infections so our hospitals and our healthcare workers can
22:59
Speaker 1: have of de breeze. So Lauren, if when a patient
23:04
Speaker 1: gets admitted, say today, with COVID, how has that experience
23:08
Speaker 1: different for that patient, say from a year ago. I
23:13
Speaker 1: think a couple of things are vastly different. One is
23:16
Speaker 1: how we manage that patient. Right, So we've learned so
23:19
Speaker 1: much in the last year about the course of disease
23:22
Speaker 1: and cloviding team UM and and how to treat people
23:25
Speaker 1: who are sick with our Scooby too. And so the
23:29
Speaker 1: the hospital environment's going to look the same, the PPE
23:33
Speaker 1: is gonna look the same. But but the what we
23:35
Speaker 1: do for those patients, what drugs are available to some
23:38
Speaker 1: extent for those patients, even where the patient ends up
23:41
Speaker 1: within the hospital or health care system, like, we have
23:43
Speaker 1: the capacity to provide supportive care and get people home
23:46
Speaker 1: and out faster, which is always great. The last time
23:48
Speaker 1: you could stay in the hospital, the better. Um And
23:51
Speaker 1: I think we're seeing more of an ability to manage
23:55
Speaker 1: the surgence in some places because we're getting better treating
23:58
Speaker 1: the individual patient. Still, in many places across the country,
24:02
Speaker 1: our hospitals are overwhelmed as these patients. So some things
24:05
Speaker 1: haven't changed as much as we'd like them to. Lauren,
24:08
Speaker 1: do you imagine that schools will be fully up and
24:10
Speaker 1: running by September, by by the new semester. I think
24:14
Speaker 1: that's definitely the hope. I think we have a lot
24:16
Speaker 1: of work to do in building the trust back in
24:19
Speaker 1: the educational system, so both with the teachers and with
24:22
Speaker 1: the people who are sending their kids to school. UM
24:25
Speaker 1: And we have a lot of education around what's safe
24:27
Speaker 1: and what isn't. So we want to get teachers vaccinated.
24:30
Speaker 1: We want to make sure that we have enough vaccine
24:32
Speaker 1: to support teachers getting back into the classroom and then
24:35
Speaker 1: getting kids back into the classroom. But we also have
24:38
Speaker 1: to think about what does COVID look like in kids?
24:40
Speaker 1: Can kids get there for you know, can kids pick
24:42
Speaker 1: up COVID and get their families sick? And so how
24:44
Speaker 1: do we create safe spaces and give the schools themselves
24:48
Speaker 1: the tools to to create the safest space for these
24:51
Speaker 1: kids possible. I think getting kids back to school should
24:54
Speaker 1: be our absolute number one priority in that in that area,
24:57
Speaker 1: it's it's good for kids to be in school, and
25:00
Speaker 1: we have a whole group of kids who have not
25:02
Speaker 1: experienced that for almost a year, so it has to
25:05
Speaker 1: be a priority. Hey, Lauren, thank you so much once
25:08
Speaker 1: again for joining us. We always appreciate at your time.
25:11
Speaker 1: Lauren Soer, Social Professor of Emergency Medicine at the Johns
25:14
Speaker 1: Hopkins School of Medicine. We should know that the Bloomberg
25:16
Speaker 1: School of Public Health is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder,
25:19
Speaker 1: Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies and this radio station. Thanks
25:24
Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
25:27
Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast
25:31
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at
25:34
Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
25:36
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us
25:39
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio