Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Final Four Betting Preview 2023

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The Favorites - Final Four Betting Preview 2023 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:24
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:29
Speaker 1: I am joined in this episode as I am by
1:31
Speaker 1: every episode. In every episode. Bye, my co host, my companion,
1:36
Speaker 1: my colleague, my bff, Mike Padre professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello,
1:45
Speaker 1: so I am in Hello chat. How you doing, brother?
1:48
Speaker 1: I'm good and listen. We're gonna have Stucky come on
1:51
Speaker 1: the podcast. You know, the Gang, the Quartet, the Wolfpack,
1:57
Speaker 1: Me you, Matt, Mitchell Stuckey. We're together again and you
2:02
Speaker 1: were missing this past weekend from when the wolf Pack
2:05
Speaker 1: got together in the New York, New Jersey area. And
2:08
Speaker 1: we're gonna bring Stucky on. We're gonna talk Final four.
2:11
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's got some opinions on Lamar Jackson because
2:13
Speaker 1: he loves the Ravens. He can tell us a little
2:15
Speaker 1: bit about how to hedge because this Final four has
2:18
Speaker 1: been so unpredictable. But we're also going to talk a
2:22
Speaker 1: little bit about this weekend because there was a little
2:25
Speaker 1: bit of some insanity. I'm just glad stuck he made
2:29
Speaker 1: it to the show. My man, how are you? Oh,
2:34
Speaker 1: what's going on? Yeah? I just got my voice back,
2:37
Speaker 1: so that was good. Otherwise I would have had to
2:39
Speaker 1: take a rain check. So I'm not at full volume.
2:42
Speaker 1: But I know our Matt Mitchell, producer, also lost his voice,
2:48
Speaker 1: but he doesn't really need a voice. It's got to
2:49
Speaker 1: give a couple instructions at the beginning of shows. I
2:52
Speaker 1: need a voice to talk on these shows. So I
2:54
Speaker 1: was happy. My wife made me some like tea, a
2:56
Speaker 1: bunch of tea with like throat clearing, I don't know qualities,
3:02
Speaker 1: some some nick that she gave me. And I was
3:03
Speaker 1: drinking hot tea with honey and stuff yesterday. So I
3:06
Speaker 1: feel a lot better today. Somehow made my flight on
3:09
Speaker 1: Sunday morning about a month ago. One of those things
3:12
Speaker 1: were like you You're like, all right, I'll get a
3:15
Speaker 1: flight for this time right way before the trip, and
3:18
Speaker 1: then during the trip You're like, wow, I made a
3:19
Speaker 1: big mistake. But I wanted to get home before the
3:21
Speaker 1: game started on Sunday at two thirty so I, you know,
3:24
Speaker 1: grabbed an eight am flight, couldn't find a director to
3:27
Speaker 1: do a layover. Somehow, by the grace of God, I
3:30
Speaker 1: made the flight. So yeah, it's good to be back
3:33
Speaker 1: Final four. We're winding down in March madness here, so yeah,
3:36
Speaker 1: it's good times this weekend. Though. Well, your bride, big
3:40
Speaker 1: mad Baller, who I've met, we've all met and is lovely,
3:44
Speaker 1: is much nicer than mine. Because when I called mine
3:46
Speaker 1: on Sunday morning after we were all out together on
3:49
Speaker 1: Saturday night and I went to bed way before everybody else.
3:52
Speaker 1: I called her Sunday morning, she goes, what the fuck's
3:56
Speaker 1: the matter with you? Because you sound terrible. We were
4:01
Speaker 1: in New York this past week, New York and New Jersey.
4:03
Speaker 1: We had an event at a bar called Mad Hatter
4:08
Speaker 1: and Hoboken. All I know is that Stucky and Chris
4:12
Speaker 1: Raybon on Thursday night into Friday basically saw the sun
4:17
Speaker 1: come up. Raybon, who goes out harder than just about
4:20
Speaker 1: anybody other than Stucky, passed out at eight o'clock on
4:23
Speaker 1: Friday and Friday night. I know U Stucky and two
4:30
Speaker 1: other people from our team, Barbara Walters and Danny Downahue,
4:34
Speaker 1: we're out until five am. And I know that on
4:39
Speaker 1: Saturday night, long after I left the bar, nearing you know,
4:44
Speaker 1: the morning out the early morning hours, I got a
4:47
Speaker 1: picture from somebody with Stucky doing car bombs. So I
4:52
Speaker 1: do want to know, Stucky, at what time did you
4:54
Speaker 1: go to bed on Sunday? Sunday was three three o'clock,
5:02
Speaker 1: so yeah, it was. It was Sunda rise, sunrise, three o'clock.
5:05
Speaker 1: I had to get some sleep before getting up and
5:08
Speaker 1: then getting my ride to the airport at LaGuardia, which
5:12
Speaker 1: thank god is so nice now and so efficient, so
5:14
Speaker 1: like I was able to fly through LaGuardia. Yeah, so
5:17
Speaker 1: it was three for three right about. Had to take
5:19
Speaker 1: a thirty six hour break, which I'll never live down.
5:22
Speaker 1: He had one job that weekend, which was to come
5:23
Speaker 1: to drink. I'm doing shows in the morning, live shows,
5:27
Speaker 1: so yeah I was. I was giving Chris some shit
5:31
Speaker 1: for that, but yes, it was. It was long we
5:33
Speaker 1: get out. There's the thing, like, you go, I meet
5:35
Speaker 1: all these people. I get all these people that I've
5:36
Speaker 1: never met that have been following me for a while,
5:39
Speaker 1: and you know, I'll tweet about my nights out and
5:42
Speaker 1: we during football seas, I do like a rally car bomb.
5:44
Speaker 1: It's like, all right, this day's looking rough, it's time
5:46
Speaker 1: for a car bomb. Hopefully turn around. Well, if you're
5:49
Speaker 1: in a room full of people, that and luckily the
5:53
Speaker 1: two bets that I gave we emailed everyone. The two
5:55
Speaker 1: bets that I had on Saturday were Yukon and fau
5:57
Speaker 1: so that on Sunday or Saturday should say. So that worked.
6:00
Speaker 1: That worked out, but because it would have been scared
6:04
Speaker 1: be in a room with five hundred people who followed
6:06
Speaker 1: your bet. Usually it's like on Twitter and I hear
6:08
Speaker 1: about it, but like in the same room as everyone.
6:10
Speaker 1: So that worked out. But then there's a bunch of
6:11
Speaker 1: people in the in the same room as you that
6:12
Speaker 1: want to do a car bomb with you. And eventually
6:15
Speaker 1: had to go take a seat in the corner of
6:16
Speaker 1: the bar, and I forget what I was sitting with them,
6:20
Speaker 1: might have been Christina or someone. I was like, I
6:22
Speaker 1: need to get it, I need to take a break,
6:23
Speaker 1: I need to get away. There's only so many car
6:25
Speaker 1: bombs I can do. So but it was worth it. It
6:28
Speaker 1: It was a great time. It was a great turnout.
6:30
Speaker 1: And yeah, well there's only took there's two games on Saturday,
6:34
Speaker 1: we got Zarolo has the opening MLB covered. I'll catch
6:38
Speaker 1: up on baseball next week. So this is a good
6:40
Speaker 1: week to recover and be a little behind on some
6:43
Speaker 1: of the stuff. Well, you know, a good way to recover,
6:46
Speaker 1: you go to a game. Speaking of going to a game,
6:49
Speaker 1: you've heard us talk about game Time many times in
6:52
Speaker 1: the past few episodes. They're the fastest growing ticketing app
6:55
Speaker 1: in the US. I love game Time, honestly, I use
6:58
Speaker 1: it all the time. And if you're looking to get
7:00
Speaker 1: out to a proer college game this week, or even
7:02
Speaker 1: a concert, game Time has amazing last minute deals on
7:05
Speaker 1: tickets to all of these. I'm actually going to open
7:09
Speaker 1: game Time right now from my house here in central Connecticut,
7:13
Speaker 1: equidistant from New York City and Boston. And lo and behold,
7:16
Speaker 1: there is a Celtics game that I would love to
7:19
Speaker 1: go to on Friday night. I can get in the
7:22
Speaker 1: door for one hundred and fifty bucks. Listen, if you've
7:24
Speaker 1: been to TV Garden, you know that's a deal. No
7:26
Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the game Time app, get
7:29
Speaker 1: out and have some fun this week. You deserve it,
7:31
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off
7:34
Speaker 1: your first purchase terms apply again. Just download the app
7:38
Speaker 1: and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off. So download
7:40
Speaker 1: game time today, last minute tickets, lost price gear run
7:44
Speaker 1: t always by the way, chat chat enough to talk
7:48
Speaker 1: about talk about me? What's even crazers? You made it
7:50
Speaker 1: till midnight two nights in or OW. I think is
7:52
Speaker 1: that it's true? That's true? Yeah? Now, well almost on
7:56
Speaker 1: Friday night, I made it to midnight, but I was
7:59
Speaker 1: at a AI's house in New Jersey watching the games.
8:02
Speaker 1: I did stay up for the entire game, so I
8:05
Speaker 1: did make it the next night at the bar. To
8:07
Speaker 1: my credit, I got to the bar at four thirty.
8:11
Speaker 1: I didn't leave till eleven. And for someone like me
8:15
Speaker 1: at a bar where we were all yelling at the
8:17
Speaker 1: top of our lungs, because I think the average age
8:20
Speaker 1: of this bar might have been the people in this
8:23
Speaker 1: bar might have been twenty three years old. It's like
8:26
Speaker 1: the bar that you go to when you first get
8:28
Speaker 1: out of college, and you know I'm older than that,
8:31
Speaker 1: And so the music was so loud. I think the
8:33
Speaker 1: only time I could hear myself is when me and
8:35
Speaker 1: the other old person there, Matt Mitchell were standing at
8:38
Speaker 1: the end of the bar by the door, and we
8:40
Speaker 1: were able to have one decent conversation with Mike Calabreez,
8:43
Speaker 1: who's been on the podcast BBOC Colleague as well, and
8:49
Speaker 1: that was about it. So we all blew our voice
8:52
Speaker 1: out because the bar was so loud. But I do
8:54
Speaker 1: get credit for sticking around. You know, I had some
8:57
Speaker 1: stamina this weekend. I agree that props appreciate that. Appreciate
9:02
Speaker 1: that we missed Simon. Yeah, I wish I could watching
9:08
Speaker 1: you were well watching Simon. I actually went to Vegas.
9:12
Speaker 1: I um as much as I love you watching, I
9:14
Speaker 1: think because that was that someone just make that up. No,
9:17
Speaker 1: I was during the week. I went to Vegas on
9:20
Speaker 1: Thursday morning. I got back midday Sunday. Um, I do
9:24
Speaker 1: love it here, but like I'm not some six pack
9:27
Speaker 1: guy with that conserve. Like I'm a degenerate gambler who
9:30
Speaker 1: just loved betting. So um as wish I do love
9:34
Speaker 1: it here. I've like really missed Atlantic City, Philadelphia too.
9:37
Speaker 1: I just I missed the books, missed the action. So
9:40
Speaker 1: I gotta gotta went to went to Vegas what they
9:43
Speaker 1: call whatever the twelfth Island here. Um, because it's the
9:46
Speaker 1: only place you get direct flight from Maui is to
9:49
Speaker 1: last Las Vegas. Um, yeah, it was. It was a
9:53
Speaker 1: good time, honestly, Like I was saying, gambling on the
9:56
Speaker 1: World Baseball Classic, gambling on the final for the not
9:59
Speaker 1: the fun four, but the Elite eight, all of it.
10:02
Speaker 1: It was just such a fun weekend. If you're a
10:04
Speaker 1: better for sports, even if you're not a better. To me,
10:08
Speaker 1: of course, I love football. There's just nothing like March marches.
10:13
Speaker 1: It's the best, especially if you just love betting all
10:15
Speaker 1: hours they're just there's so many sports going on all day.
10:18
Speaker 1: So again, to me, last weekend one of the better
10:22
Speaker 1: weekends of the year for betting wise. So no surprise,
10:24
Speaker 1: you guys had a great time partying and Hoboken. It's
10:27
Speaker 1: just it's just a good time to be together with
10:29
Speaker 1: people betting. Hey, listen when the last two days and
10:33
Speaker 1: I want to get to Final four. But I do
10:34
Speaker 1: think this is an important it's relevant, not just because
10:37
Speaker 1: it complements you guys, but because I think it's important
10:40
Speaker 1: in how we frame action, which we've always talked about.
10:44
Speaker 1: On Monday, I was speaking to a class at Bradley
10:48
Speaker 1: University one in the sports communication department there and one
10:53
Speaker 1: of the students who was a huge Action fan, was
10:57
Speaker 1: talking about how much they love the content and they
11:02
Speaker 1: love the talent, and they were talking about Stucky and
11:04
Speaker 1: they said, you know what I love about Stucky. I
11:06
Speaker 1: feel like if I went up to him and spoke
11:08
Speaker 1: to him in a bar, he wouldn't judge me. He
11:11
Speaker 1: would just tell me how to bet and make me
11:13
Speaker 1: feel good about it. And that's the exact way we
11:16
Speaker 1: describe how we want our talent to be as like
11:18
Speaker 1: approachable and accessible in that way. And then Simon, today
11:22
Speaker 1: I was talking to a job candidate. He said the
11:24
Speaker 1: same exact thing about you. So I hope all of
11:27
Speaker 1: our listeners are feeling the same way as we go
11:32
Speaker 1: into the final four. If I can get sentimental for
11:34
Speaker 1: a moment, I hope all of our listeners are feeling
11:36
Speaker 1: the same way. Stuck. It's been a crazy final four.
11:40
Speaker 1: You've got a Yukon future remaining. How do you feel
11:42
Speaker 1: about that? Oh? I obviously feel good and know, by
11:46
Speaker 1: the way, is a great compliment anyone that sees me
11:49
Speaker 1: out any time, including last weekend, I was treating if
11:51
Speaker 1: you see me, don't have to come up to me,
11:52
Speaker 1: which a lot of people did. My favorite were a
11:55
Speaker 1: group of good friends Tom and Tommy from Staten Island,
11:57
Speaker 1: and they were like, yeah, I know we can't make
11:59
Speaker 1: it up with Tom and Tom, but yeah, we have
12:03
Speaker 1: a if you listen to our podcast Big Bets on Campus,
12:06
Speaker 1: which will have our preview out later in the week.
12:09
Speaker 1: We had five futures this year that we, you know,
12:12
Speaker 1: each week we would all bring one of the table
12:15
Speaker 1: vote on it in Yukon was one that we had
12:18
Speaker 1: at twenty two twenty three to one, which I have
12:21
Speaker 1: some of it as well. Now they're the overwhelming favorite.
12:23
Speaker 1: I think it's some books. They're minus one twenty minus
12:27
Speaker 1: one thirty I think I saw, and so yeah, I
12:30
Speaker 1: mean they're gonna They're clearly the best team left on
12:33
Speaker 1: some of the analytical sites. They're now up to number
12:35
Speaker 1: one in the country and they're five and a half
12:39
Speaker 1: point favorites against some a Miami team that look there,
12:42
Speaker 1: this is a team that all they do is cover
12:44
Speaker 1: and win, is underdogs, and their offense is playing really well.
12:47
Speaker 1: Their defense is a ton of issues, but their best
12:51
Speaker 1: defense is just more offense and that they're they're just
12:54
Speaker 1: putting ninety up on everyone. It's pretty crazy. But this
12:57
Speaker 1: is what I tell everyone that asked me. I mean,
12:58
Speaker 1: the biggest question, the question that I get most frequently
13:01
Speaker 1: by far, is hey, I have this future. What should
13:04
Speaker 1: I do? How do I hedge? Well, a lot of
13:05
Speaker 1: times people ask this way too soon, like you can't hedge?
13:08
Speaker 1: Usually can't hedge a future in the sweet sixteen. You
13:11
Speaker 1: gotta wait. It gets it adds up quickly if you
13:13
Speaker 1: do the map. But the thing I always tell people is, look,
13:16
Speaker 1: if you're not doing this, even if you are doing
13:18
Speaker 1: this pressure, if you're doing this recreationally and it's not
13:21
Speaker 1: going to change your life, the right answers usually let
13:23
Speaker 1: it go. Now you want to ask yourself why why
13:27
Speaker 1: did you place it in the first place? What were
13:29
Speaker 1: you expecting? Did something change right? Was there an injury?
13:31
Speaker 1: Do you not like the matchup? In that case, maybe
13:34
Speaker 1: you want to hedge a little. Is it a ton
13:36
Speaker 1: of money and it will help you? You got these
13:39
Speaker 1: questions I asked. I'm going to sound like a financial advisor,
13:41
Speaker 1: because that's really I have to find out so many things.
13:43
Speaker 1: What's your risk aversion level, what's your financial situation? What
13:46
Speaker 1: will this money mean to you? So I get it?
13:48
Speaker 1: If you want to just you know, betting a lot
13:50
Speaker 1: of it is like met staying mentally stable. So if
13:52
Speaker 1: you want to put a little bit on something just
13:54
Speaker 1: to make sure that you return your initial amount, that's fine. Now.
13:57
Speaker 1: One thing that I do like to do at times,
14:00
Speaker 1: based on how what I make the number is go
14:02
Speaker 1: for a middle. So Ukon's going to be a five
14:05
Speaker 1: and a half six point favorite here. If you want
14:07
Speaker 1: to take a little bit off of and you have
14:09
Speaker 1: a Yukon future, you can take um, you know, Miami
14:12
Speaker 1: plus five and a half plus six, and you can,
14:15
Speaker 1: you know, for the amount that you bet the future on,
14:18
Speaker 1: and you can hope that Yukon wins or you know,
14:22
Speaker 1: if they blow them out on you, you lost one
14:25
Speaker 1: unit of your potential whatever twenty two, twenty three. But
14:27
Speaker 1: there's a chance that you win between one and six,
14:30
Speaker 1: and then you're winning both and then Yukon is still
14:32
Speaker 1: moving on. But for the most part, usually just let
14:35
Speaker 1: it ride. People get too wrapped up in wanting to hedge,
14:39
Speaker 1: and especially way too early in college basketball in the
14:43
Speaker 1: NCAA tournament. So whatever I have on Ukon, I'm just
14:46
Speaker 1: letting it ride, and you know, maybe in the final
14:49
Speaker 1: I'll try for a middle But for now I'm just
14:51
Speaker 1: letting it go and hopefully they can keep making shots
14:54
Speaker 1: because if they look how they've looked so far, no
14:56
Speaker 1: one's stopping them. Simon, I feel like something Stucky just
15:01
Speaker 1: said about hedging and it's a really important betting conversation
15:05
Speaker 1: was really interesting because people feel like if they get
15:10
Speaker 1: these opportunities, they must hedge. He's like, if you're a
15:14
Speaker 1: recreational better assess what it means to you and then
15:17
Speaker 1: make the decision. Like, you hedge a lot, but you're
15:20
Speaker 1: a professional. Better give me your take on what you
15:22
Speaker 1: just said. Yeah, I always, I almost always had. It's
15:26
Speaker 1: very very rare. I don't, And I was sucking in
15:29
Speaker 1: alignment in the sense to that if you don't care
15:32
Speaker 1: about building a bank roll, if you truly are just
15:34
Speaker 1: doing it for fun and you don't track your bank roll,
15:36
Speaker 1: you don't you know, you don't care about tracking the
15:39
Speaker 1: kind of stuff and you're just doing it too. You know,
15:41
Speaker 1: maybe if you win this bet, you'll take your wife
15:43
Speaker 1: on a vacation whatever it is, or a boyfriend, whatever
15:46
Speaker 1: you want to do with the money. Yes, then don't edge,
15:48
Speaker 1: Like let it ride. You made the bet and you
15:50
Speaker 1: believed in that bet. I'm in alignment Stucky in that.
15:53
Speaker 1: My issue is when people have positions that can make
15:57
Speaker 1: a hedge, where like an exam was this past season
16:00
Speaker 1: on football. You know, we had the Chiefs to win
16:04
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I also was a big Jaguars believer,
16:07
Speaker 1: so the Jaguars went to went to play the Chiefs.
16:09
Speaker 1: I think there was like a ten point spread or
16:11
Speaker 1: something like that. I took a large position on the
16:14
Speaker 1: Jaguars spread like Stuck you're talking about here with Miami.
16:18
Speaker 1: I put a decent amount of the Jaguars at plus
16:20
Speaker 1: ten even though I had the Chiefs to go to
16:21
Speaker 1: Super Bowl both it but the Jaguars covered and the
16:25
Speaker 1: Chiefs one. So it was one of those things where
16:27
Speaker 1: like Stuck he's talking about, there, you're kind of playing
16:29
Speaker 1: both sides, and that's a really nice middle to be
16:32
Speaker 1: in where you can get your money back on the
16:34
Speaker 1: dog and if you have the favorite, like Stuck he's
16:36
Speaker 1: talking about you as Yukon, you can just let that
16:39
Speaker 1: future keep riding. So to me, it's all about the
16:42
Speaker 1: number you got in the position you can take. Where
16:45
Speaker 1: I'm a I'm a full supporter. People don't want to
16:47
Speaker 1: hedge do whatever you want. I just I always had,
16:50
Speaker 1: just because it's my livelihood. Like I'm building a bank
16:53
Speaker 1: roll here. So to me, I'm with Stuck. If you
16:55
Speaker 1: if you're a position where you can take the dog
16:58
Speaker 1: while you're on the favorite for a long term. Um,
17:01
Speaker 1: you know, like Yukon's future, how do you not put
17:04
Speaker 1: at least at least whatever you say you put in
17:06
Speaker 1: ten dollars on Yukon to win it all, at least
17:09
Speaker 1: they're ten or fifteen on Miami at plus five. I mean,
17:11
Speaker 1: you're getting a good number there. And like Stuck said,
17:13
Speaker 1: you're trying to play that middle. You can still hit
17:16
Speaker 1: both sides, which is what we this is what we
17:19
Speaker 1: live for. Like literally, I'm not making bets here on
17:22
Speaker 1: Super Bowl futures. I'm not betting the Bears in February,
17:25
Speaker 1: not the head them, Like that's the whole point. I'm
17:26
Speaker 1: taking a position in February that I'm hoping I could
17:29
Speaker 1: take a position in January the following year. Um, that's
17:32
Speaker 1: just how I view it. So I think Stuck, you
17:36
Speaker 1: really kneeled on the head there. You got to ask yourself,
17:39
Speaker 1: what are you doing this for? You doing this for fun?
17:41
Speaker 1: Or are you trying to learn and build a bankroll.
17:42
Speaker 1: So to me, like Stuck talked about, you got to
17:44
Speaker 1: ask yourself these kind of questions before you even start
17:47
Speaker 1: even thinking about making a head or doing a different play. Yeah,
17:51
Speaker 1: if you're serious by such, but it's just you're probably
17:54
Speaker 1: not gonna be asking me what to do. And I
17:57
Speaker 1: would say, just map at least map it out out.
18:00
Speaker 1: Like I've seen people try to hedge a future like
18:02
Speaker 1: a forty to one the last amount in the Sweet
18:04
Speaker 1: sixteen by taking the favorite on the money line. And
18:07
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, say you take that favorite minus
18:09
Speaker 1: two fifty was this example, that's just to win your bet.
18:12
Speaker 1: So you're laying out two and a half units. Say
18:15
Speaker 1: that loses, and then the next game you have another
18:17
Speaker 1: favorite that's minus two fifty. All of a sudden, you know,
18:21
Speaker 1: to cover that that, say they're minus two fifty again,
18:24
Speaker 1: to cover that two and a half units that you
18:25
Speaker 1: just lost. I mean, now all of a sudden, you're
18:27
Speaker 1: up to seven and a half and then you're in
18:29
Speaker 1: the final four, you're down ten units in hedging. What
18:32
Speaker 1: if it's minus two hundred again, then you're down twenty
18:35
Speaker 1: plus that ten. Then all of a sudden you're like,
18:36
Speaker 1: oh my god, I need this hedge to hitter. I'm
18:38
Speaker 1: not even gonna I'm gonna make any money. So that's
18:40
Speaker 1: one thing, like be careful. People a lot of very
18:43
Speaker 1: recreational about us want to hedge their future way too soon,
18:46
Speaker 1: and it sometimes you can get you in a lot
18:48
Speaker 1: of trouble. But yeah, I agree with what you said, Sikes.
18:50
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I was gonna say. I love that we've
18:54
Speaker 1: got a final four, and who knows, maybe this is
18:57
Speaker 1: an anomaly, right, but I love that in the early
18:59
Speaker 1: years of NIL, we've got a final four that is
19:03
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami, and Yukon. Only one
19:07
Speaker 1: of those schools in Miami you would consider to be
19:11
Speaker 1: a high end NIL school. Definitely not FAU, Definitely not
19:17
Speaker 1: San Diego State, Definitely not you come. I love that
19:22
Speaker 1: we're seeing these teams succeed in the early stages of
19:28
Speaker 1: this era. And I love that we've got a final
19:30
Speaker 1: four that has no McDonald's all Americans in it, which
19:36
Speaker 1: I think is the first time in thirty years. To me,
19:40
Speaker 1: it speaks to work ethic, it speaks to playing together,
19:43
Speaker 1: it speaks to it doesn't matter where you start, it
19:45
Speaker 1: matters where you finish all the things that I think
19:47
Speaker 1: are really valuable. It feels great to me, and I
19:53
Speaker 1: wonder Stucky as a college basketball fan and a college
19:57
Speaker 1: basketball expert, do you think that college basketball, maybe more
20:01
Speaker 1: than college football, is predisposed to succeeding if you're a
20:06
Speaker 1: non NIL school in the nil era. Yeah. I mean, look,
20:13
Speaker 1: I think it speaks to the you have to remember
20:15
Speaker 1: the transfer portal too, which a lot of these teams
20:20
Speaker 1: have built on and relied on, and just the amount
20:25
Speaker 1: of talent that's moving in the offseason. I mean you
20:27
Speaker 1: just look now the amount of talent that's in the
20:28
Speaker 1: transfer portal for next year. That's one way to build
20:32
Speaker 1: a really good, experienced, veteran team, and that's what we
20:35
Speaker 1: have here. And I think it speaks to the you know,
20:39
Speaker 1: the value of experienced teamwork, camaraderie, and then obviously coaching
20:43
Speaker 1: as well. So yeah, I think it's I think it's
20:46
Speaker 1: a great thing for the sport. People are gonna say like, oh,
20:48
Speaker 1: there's no blue bloods and there's no you know, you
20:51
Speaker 1: don't have these big nil schools, But I think it
20:54
Speaker 1: speaks to the depth of the talent pool in college basketball. Too,
20:57
Speaker 1: if you even't seen it on the women's side, right,
21:00
Speaker 1: the women's side used to just be like, hey, it's
21:02
Speaker 1: Yukon winning at all and that's it. But now you're
21:04
Speaker 1: you know, you saw two ones go down before the
21:06
Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen, So yeah, I think it's good for the sport.
21:10
Speaker 1: Maybe the ratings will be down a little bit. I
21:12
Speaker 1: don't know, but at the end of the day, the
21:14
Speaker 1: only thing I really care about is are their lines
21:16
Speaker 1: for the games, which there are so there are. I
21:18
Speaker 1: saw their way up though. Even men's is up, and
21:21
Speaker 1: I saw women's is up too, So to me, it's
21:23
Speaker 1: college is in a nice position. Like even the women's
21:26
Speaker 1: brackets been really good, compelling, especially if you're a better
21:29
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of great angles. So to me,
21:32
Speaker 1: both the men and the women's brackets as you have
21:34
Speaker 1: been just fun like, especially from the betting standpoint, it's
21:36
Speaker 1: been madness, which I think is what we all want, right.
21:40
Speaker 1: It's it's boring when it's always the one and two,
21:43
Speaker 1: It's always the Kentucky's, the Dukes, the Kansas. This is
21:46
Speaker 1: what we love. People are trying to bitch about it
21:48
Speaker 1: and then their point, their point gets destroyed where it's like, oh,
21:52
Speaker 1: the nil deals are ruining basketball, they're ruining ruining college football.
21:56
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think it's it's kind of
21:58
Speaker 1: changing things we're seeing it. Maybe fat stain basketball here,
22:00
Speaker 1: then we are college football. But I love it where
22:03
Speaker 1: it's like, you know, there's certain guys here they're playing
22:07
Speaker 1: who knows where they're gonna be transfer wort wise, But
22:09
Speaker 1: I like it the sense that you know, these certain
22:10
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic players some they're gonna get a nice paycheck,
22:13
Speaker 1: right They're gonna get a card dealership deal from this
22:15
Speaker 1: crazy run in this final four. So I love these
22:18
Speaker 1: college kids are getting money from producing on the basketball court.
22:23
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24:20
Speaker 1: San Diego State minus one and a half against Florida
24:24
Speaker 1: Atlantic Stucky total was one thirty one and a half.
24:30
Speaker 1: I want to take I'm probably gonna take fu here.
24:33
Speaker 1: You might be able to find a two out there.
24:34
Speaker 1: I make San Diego State, like I made far To
24:37
Speaker 1: like a small favorite against Kansas State easily took them
24:39
Speaker 1: catch of two and a half. I think be able
24:41
Speaker 1: to find a two out there, but I make them
24:42
Speaker 1: a small dog, so it's not as much of an edge.
24:45
Speaker 1: But I think that they can handle San Diego State's physicality.
24:48
Speaker 1: We saw that against Memphis, we saw that against Tennessee.
24:51
Speaker 1: Right those are two of the most physical teams in
24:52
Speaker 1: the country, and that's one Creton really struggled, especially their
24:56
Speaker 1: guards on the outside, with San Diego State's physicality. All
25:00
Speaker 1: that obviously with Duke, but Florida Atlantic has guys and
25:03
Speaker 1: they're deep, and San Diego State all credit to them.
25:07
Speaker 1: Their defense have been amazing. I love their coach, Brian Dutcher,
25:10
Speaker 1: who's a great game planner. Their defense is incredible, especially
25:14
Speaker 1: in the paint, and then their length. They just get
25:16
Speaker 1: out and help on every three. But no one can
25:18
Speaker 1: hit a three against them, I mean nobody, and open threes,
25:21
Speaker 1: contested threes. They've certainly benefited from some shooting luck. Now. Granted,
25:26
Speaker 1: for the season, teams have only hit twenty seven percent
25:28
Speaker 1: from three, but during their tournament run, teas are sixteen
25:33
Speaker 1: of ninety four from three. Then you're not playing bad
25:36
Speaker 1: teams in the tournament. So and Floridatlantic hasn't really got
25:39
Speaker 1: hot from three yet, which is the crazy thing. And
25:41
Speaker 1: they're a top you know, they're top fifty in the
25:43
Speaker 1: country in both three point rate and three point percentage.
25:46
Speaker 1: So and they just have got like San Diego Staate.
25:48
Speaker 1: It's a great one of the reasons they have a
25:50
Speaker 1: great three point defense. There's a couple, but they help
25:53
Speaker 1: extremely well. They're extremely long, so just every shot fields contested.
25:57
Speaker 1: But they're also great game planners. And Dutcher is just
26:00
Speaker 1: a great schemer. So if you have one or two guys,
26:03
Speaker 1: which a lot of teams do, it's just one or
26:04
Speaker 1: two guys are gonna kill you from three, like the
26:07
Speaker 1: scout is there and they're just not letting them get
26:09
Speaker 1: open shots. But Florid Atlantic usually plays with four out
26:12
Speaker 1: four guys and then a couple of guys on the bench.
26:14
Speaker 1: You know, they have seven or eight guys at average
26:16
Speaker 1: at least eight points per game, four guys who could shoot,
26:19
Speaker 1: so you can't key on any one of them, and
26:21
Speaker 1: they move the ball extremely well. So yeah, I think
26:24
Speaker 1: that they can create some mismatches here. And there's part
26:27
Speaker 1: of me thinks that, look, someone's gonna eventually hit some
26:30
Speaker 1: threes against San Diego State and this would be the
26:32
Speaker 1: perfect team to do it, and you can't key on
26:33
Speaker 1: any one guy. So yeah, I'm I'm leaving FAU once again.
26:38
Speaker 1: I've been riding them lately. I'll probably be on them
26:40
Speaker 1: once again. Deed d to two though need to two
26:43
Speaker 1: two and a half, which I think we'll be able
26:45
Speaker 1: to find out there. Now. I had a pro talk
26:47
Speaker 1: to me that he thinks that FAU and men's championship
26:51
Speaker 1: is still too high. They're still plus five fifty right now,
26:55
Speaker 1: all FanDuel, do you agree with that or do you
26:57
Speaker 1: think that's price right? Because to me, I get where
27:00
Speaker 1: he's coming from, where they're only minus one and a half.
27:02
Speaker 1: I just wonder what the line would be against them
27:04
Speaker 1: or Connecticut or Florida. Miami obviously a favorite over Miami,
27:10
Speaker 1: so they'd be a favorite over Miami. So would you
27:13
Speaker 1: take that five fifty then for them national change? Yeah, yeah,
27:15
Speaker 1: I don't mind that bet. I think that there's part
27:19
Speaker 1: of it. And you saw this last week against with
27:21
Speaker 1: Kansas State. There was like I made Floridatlantic a favorite
27:23
Speaker 1: over Kansas State, but in Kansas State was getting like
27:26
Speaker 1: every bet and a lot of people were saying, like
27:28
Speaker 1: it's Kansas State Noel like in the garden against this
27:32
Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic team. So there's still not allowed of belief
27:35
Speaker 1: about a team that people don't really know about, haven't
27:37
Speaker 1: seen all year. Doesn't come from you know, a power
27:40
Speaker 1: conference named Florida Atlantic like to win it all. People
27:44
Speaker 1: don't think like they got until now they're like Florida
27:46
Speaker 1: people are still saying like Florida Atlantic is not going
27:49
Speaker 1: to win it all. So from a handle perspective, like
27:52
Speaker 1: in that future's market. I doubt they're taking many bets
27:55
Speaker 1: on Fau now that they're in the final four to
27:57
Speaker 1: win it. So yeah, I don't think that's a bad
27:58
Speaker 1: bet at all. Now. I think I've saw multiple sports
28:01
Speaker 1: books talk about the only way they lose now is
28:04
Speaker 1: if you can wins it all. So if you want
28:06
Speaker 1: to be riding with the books and fading anyone, you
28:08
Speaker 1: want to fade, you can. Yep. Uh. You know what's interesting?
28:13
Speaker 1: So Florida Atlantic Stucky? You got him? Is it? You know?
28:17
Speaker 1: You think they can beat San Diego State Simon. You've
28:21
Speaker 1: got wise guys talking about a plus five fifty Stucky
28:24
Speaker 1: you say to be favorite over Miami. Yep, you're this
28:28
Speaker 1: point favorite for what it's worth one and a half
28:30
Speaker 1: would Yeah, you know that's they're competitive clearly. Uh, Dusty May,
28:35
Speaker 1: he's going to get a job, offer to go somewhere.
28:37
Speaker 1: But if you're Dusty May and you win a title
28:40
Speaker 1: at Florida Atlantic, what do you do Because the reason
28:44
Speaker 1: you leave a place like Florida Atlantic is because you
28:46
Speaker 1: say I can't win a title there, and yet all
28:48
Speaker 1: of a sudden you do it. Like, what's the job
28:51
Speaker 1: that you take after that, you Kentucky might be looking
28:53
Speaker 1: for a new head coach. I mean you try to
28:56
Speaker 1: take it for the for the money in your family.
28:58
Speaker 1: Let us not going to pay him. Of course, what
29:01
Speaker 1: is the job like? You know, Yeah, it's gonna be
29:04
Speaker 1: a bit like a Kentucky maybe one day. Um, but yeah,
29:08
Speaker 1: he and he went. He started at FAU in the
29:12
Speaker 1: Indian Indiana from Indiana, I think he started f India
29:15
Speaker 1: manager yep in twenty nineteen. And he cried when he
29:19
Speaker 1: got when he took the job and he saw the
29:20
Speaker 1: facilities and he said, uh, he just ruined his career. Um.
29:25
Speaker 1: And he was like, I've just committed career of suicide
29:28
Speaker 1: because he took the job before he saw all the
29:32
Speaker 1: facilities and he saw how dire the situation really was.
29:35
Speaker 1: And he was like, I'm never gonna be able to
29:36
Speaker 1: build a really good team here. And uh now he's
29:40
Speaker 1: in the final four, which just an insane story. If
29:44
Speaker 1: you then were to win it all, but um, yeah,
29:48
Speaker 1: it'd be wild. I mean we look, we're we had Butler,
29:52
Speaker 1: Like look how close we were to have Butler winning
29:54
Speaker 1: it all? Um, you know tenor wherever that was against
29:58
Speaker 1: if that shot went in Gordon Haywards. When in Cordon Hayward. Um,
30:02
Speaker 1: you know, I if Florie Atlantic wins it all with
30:05
Speaker 1: this final flow, I wouldn't be completely shocked. But yeah,
30:07
Speaker 1: you're right. I mean, he'd be an absolute legend there.
30:09
Speaker 1: They try to give him as much as they possibly could. Um,
30:13
Speaker 1: I'm just not sure if they can compete money wise
30:15
Speaker 1: with some of the some of the big boys out there.
30:18
Speaker 1: But yeah, what a story would be. That's gonna say.
30:21
Speaker 1: Trying to wrap your brain around a final of fau
30:23
Speaker 1: versus Miami is it's just wild to think about. Honestly,
30:28
Speaker 1: what about So what about the Miami game? Stock it's
30:32
Speaker 1: the Huskies, you know, thirty five minutes from my house, Uh,
30:37
Speaker 1: minus five and a half against the Miami Hurricanes. Yeah,
30:41
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Connecticut is playing extremely well. They're on
30:44
Speaker 1: the other end of the spectrum of San Diego State
30:47
Speaker 1: opponents like they can't miss a three um which now,
30:51
Speaker 1: look they don't need to hit threes, but because they're
30:54
Speaker 1: they're so good inside. But you know, I assume Miami's
30:57
Speaker 1: gonna just try whatever they can. Just Ryan stop inside. Now,
31:01
Speaker 1: Miami can't defend the post, which is a problem against Yukon,
31:05
Speaker 1: but they're gonna say, look, Yukon, you gotta stay hot
31:07
Speaker 1: from three, and Ukon's gonna have some open looks here
31:09
Speaker 1: because Miami's defense is poor, but their offense is so
31:13
Speaker 1: explosive with their guards and guards play in March. So
31:17
Speaker 1: I mean, look, look, if you look at what Miami
31:18
Speaker 1: has done so far, they'd be Houston one of the
31:21
Speaker 1: best defenses in the country. They put up eighty nine.
31:24
Speaker 1: Texas another one of the best defenses in the country,
31:26
Speaker 1: put up eighty eight. Against Indiana they put up eighty five.
31:30
Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter how much you give up if
31:33
Speaker 1: you're gonna put up ninety in these games. And so
31:36
Speaker 1: their offense is electric. I make Connecticut a six point eight,
31:41
Speaker 1: seven point favorite here a football season will be here
31:44
Speaker 1: before we know. It's around a touchdown favorite. So what's
31:48
Speaker 1: the line sitting at right now? Five and a half Yeah,
31:51
Speaker 1: at six. Let me say six and a half six, yeah,
31:53
Speaker 1: six and a half seven. So I would lean Connecticut
31:56
Speaker 1: have a future. Probably won't bet it. I'm right in
31:59
Speaker 1: line with the total. It's probably gonna come down to um.
32:04
Speaker 1: You know, if Connecticut is hitting their open shots, because
32:06
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to move the ball here, Miami's
32:08
Speaker 1: gonna have to help. Now if Miami a great turnovers,
32:11
Speaker 1: Connecticut at times issues with turnovers. But once they get
32:15
Speaker 1: into the half court set, Mine's gonna have to help
32:17
Speaker 1: and Connecticut's gonna get open shots. And if they're just
32:21
Speaker 1: hitting that those open shots at a reasonable clip, I
32:24
Speaker 1: think they win this game by six seven plus at least.
32:27
Speaker 1: But if they're not. My Minami is gonna score, Minae's
32:29
Speaker 1: gonna score in anybody, then it could be a game.
32:31
Speaker 1: So it's a tough proposition because it's like, all right,
32:33
Speaker 1: can connect because long as Connecticut hits their open shots,
32:36
Speaker 1: on one hand, they can do that all the time.
32:37
Speaker 1: On the other hand, they've been doing it a lot.
32:39
Speaker 1: Maybe they're due for an off shooting night in a
32:41
Speaker 1: new venue. I show a little value of Connecticut, not
32:45
Speaker 1: enough to bet it, and then since I have a future,
32:47
Speaker 1: I'll be staying away. Also, we'll be getting into some
32:50
Speaker 1: props over the next couple of days. This is you know,
32:52
Speaker 1: I'll put some player props in final four weekend Super
32:55
Speaker 1: Bowl Colleturtball Championship, and we'll cover some of those on
32:59
Speaker 1: the Big Bet on Campus podcast later in the week
33:03
Speaker 1: question from AMP would you bet Fau over Yukon exact
33:09
Speaker 1: result at plus eight fifty or just Fau plus five
33:14
Speaker 1: fifty to win the title. I'm gonna do a quick
33:18
Speaker 1: math back of the envelope plus five fifty or plus
33:23
Speaker 1: eight fifty. I'm pretty I think i'd go. I think
33:34
Speaker 1: i'd go plus a fifty plus a fifty. I show
33:39
Speaker 1: a little value and Ukon against Miami's I think is
33:41
Speaker 1: the differentiator there. M yeah, So if you want that sweat,
33:47
Speaker 1: either one works or maybe or maybe just put you know,
33:49
Speaker 1: if you could always put take half your bat and
33:51
Speaker 1: then put half on plus five fifty, half on plus
33:54
Speaker 1: eight fifty. So I think that's what I would recommend doing.
33:56
Speaker 1: You know what they say, you can't have it all,
33:58
Speaker 1: and look you're showing that is how we can. Yeah,
34:01
Speaker 1: of course, Hey, before we let you go, you were
34:04
Speaker 1: a massive Ravens fan. We talked a little bit about
34:06
Speaker 1: this when we were together this past weekend. Lamar Jackson
34:10
Speaker 1: has now demanded a trade. This thing seems to have
34:13
Speaker 1: gone sideways, although these things always look most sideways right
34:17
Speaker 1: before they get resolved. As a fan, are you in
34:21
Speaker 1: favor of Lamar Jackson staying or going I want the picks,
34:25
Speaker 1: I want the first rounder epics. Well, one like the raceships,
34:29
Speaker 1: seemed to have soured part of what makes like Lamar Jackson.
34:34
Speaker 1: People that are just like guy, he's just the running back,
34:36
Speaker 1: are talking nonsense. But he never took the next step
34:40
Speaker 1: in that accuracy, in improving his accuracy right, so over
34:46
Speaker 1: since he was a rookie, he was like, wow, this
34:48
Speaker 1: guy is electric. Now if he just could take that
34:50
Speaker 1: next step into elevating his accuracy, then he could be
34:54
Speaker 1: an all world quarterback. We never saw that. And then
34:57
Speaker 1: on the flip side, he's not going to get any faster, right,
35:00
Speaker 1: so he's only getting older and he's only gonna get stared.
35:03
Speaker 1: His injurius is going up. But the kicker for me
35:05
Speaker 1: is now, it's tough because you build a roster around
35:07
Speaker 1: and you're gonna have to get something. You don't have
35:09
Speaker 1: wide receivers. You're gonna have to do something drastic. It's
35:11
Speaker 1: a really good organization. You might have to eat it
35:13
Speaker 1: for a year or two, but that's okay because look
35:16
Speaker 1: around in the AFC, it's like the Bills. You're in
35:20
Speaker 1: the division with the Bengals, the Chiefs and Mahomes aren't
35:23
Speaker 1: going anywhere. Like if you're in the NFC right now,
35:26
Speaker 1: it's a different story. But the AFC is a gauntlet
35:29
Speaker 1: right now. So I don't mind just saying, Look, there's
35:32
Speaker 1: a ton of elite quarterbacks in the FC right now,
35:34
Speaker 1: a ton of teams that are in good positions that
35:37
Speaker 1: not might not necessarily be that way in a couple.
35:39
Speaker 1: I mean, look at the Bengals. Bengals are gonna pay everybody.
35:42
Speaker 1: So I don't mind like eating it for a year
35:44
Speaker 1: or two the relationship soured, He's not gonna get any quicker.
35:48
Speaker 1: I haven't seen it. His accuracy go to an elite
35:51
Speaker 1: level where you know it's tough. I don't what are
35:54
Speaker 1: you gonna do with the roster. We'll see, maybe you
35:55
Speaker 1: bring in, maybe you just roll with hotly, maybe draft
35:59
Speaker 1: a young rookie, but you're gonna have to you build
36:02
Speaker 1: a whole offensive scheme. Right The other thing is the
36:04
Speaker 1: rest of the league is kind of figured out what
36:06
Speaker 1: the Ravens want to do, and your ceiling is kind
36:09
Speaker 1: of lowered, especially when you get to the playoffs and
36:12
Speaker 1: teams can scheme against it. So yeah, I want the picks.
36:15
Speaker 1: I want the picks. And plus, whenever you pay a quarterback,
36:19
Speaker 1: it's gonna hurt the rest of your roster, and you
36:23
Speaker 1: want to just try and get to a point where
36:25
Speaker 1: you aren't paying a quarterback that much and the rest
36:29
Speaker 1: of your roster is there, and then that's your window.
36:31
Speaker 1: So I'm for the relationships over give me the picks, Simon,
36:37
Speaker 1: I think he said at all. Yeah, and just I
36:40
Speaker 1: mean I kind of heard these rumors a week ago
36:43
Speaker 1: and whatever there was Sunday, I kind of heard that
36:45
Speaker 1: Lamar reached out their team from a guy that's a
36:47
Speaker 1: good source for the Ravens. Just I literally came with
36:51
Speaker 1: the show and talked about it. I think I even
36:52
Speaker 1: greened ideal. I talked about that's why I took the
36:54
Speaker 1: Browns at four hundred plus four hundred, I think they're
36:57
Speaker 1: down out of three to one. That's what you want
36:59
Speaker 1: to do, was a pro. You want to kind of
37:00
Speaker 1: get ahead of the news cycle and what the media knows.
37:03
Speaker 1: And I feel a little lucky there in the sense
37:05
Speaker 1: that you know Lamar, I agree a lot what stuck.
37:10
Speaker 1: He said. My biggest issue with Lamar right now is
37:12
Speaker 1: kind of his maturity level. I just everything he's doing
37:17
Speaker 1: every way he's handled this, even even not coming back
37:19
Speaker 1: for their postseason push because he didn't want to get
37:21
Speaker 1: hurt before doing a new contract. All of it. It's
37:24
Speaker 1: been so me, me, me, and one of the biggest
37:27
Speaker 1: team sports we know. So I get why the fans
37:30
Speaker 1: are kind of sick of it. I get what the
37:32
Speaker 1: organizations kind of burned out on them. Um, it's it's
37:35
Speaker 1: a really sticky situation. But at the same time, if
37:38
Speaker 1: I'm a team like the Jets, or if I'm a
37:41
Speaker 1: team again the Atlanta thing that will never make sense
37:43
Speaker 1: to me, or there's these teams that just haven't had
37:45
Speaker 1: a quarterback that you know they're they're there's opportunity there,
37:50
Speaker 1: So I get what friend, they have a conversation that
37:55
Speaker 1: would be what shan do with him? But and yeah,
38:00
Speaker 1: Lamore says that the Ravens didn't offer him what he's worth.
38:02
Speaker 1: They they placed a non exclusive franchise tag on him.
38:06
Speaker 1: That means that whoever wants them, if the Ravens wanted them,
38:10
Speaker 1: they'd have to match it. So that allowed him to
38:11
Speaker 1: go get the you know, his market value. So yeah,
38:16
Speaker 1: I think the relationship is just soured too. So that also,
38:20
Speaker 1: even if they did solve but that could also pop
38:22
Speaker 1: up and cause issues in the future. I think it's
38:25
Speaker 1: a lot of resentment. That's what it feels like, resentment.
38:28
Speaker 1: It's time to move on, I think, well, listen, I
38:32
Speaker 1: think it's time for all of us to move on
38:34
Speaker 1: from this podcast. I gotta save my voice for the
38:38
Speaker 1: rest of the Wars. Stucky for Simon Hunter. I am
38:42
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