Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Mega Chip IPO's vs Bitcoin🚨Massive Liquidity Purge?🔥

Transcript

Mega Chip IPO's vs Bitcoin🚨Massive Liquidity Purge?🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today we'll break it down for you because there's something
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: brewing right now that could be affecting crypto in a
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: very big way, so let's check it out. I do
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: want to thank our sponsor, and that is Tangent, where
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: you guys can lock up your crypto as well as
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: all of your digital assets on your own crypto hardware wallet.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: This is the best thing in self custody that's out
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: there today. If you haven't got into self custody yet,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: you should be make sure and use our link. You're
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: going to get additional bonuses and discounts on just getting
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: your first three card set get your crypto hardware wallet today.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: It is the best way to hold your assets, especially
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: in a time like right now where the market is
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: trading down. So let's take a look at a couple
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: of things that is happening within the bitcoin mining ecosystem.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: And the first thing I want to hit on right here,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: as Bank of America says, the AI boom is driving
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: a major shift from cash flow from HYPERSCALERSIP to chip makers.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So these are all the guys that are raising prices
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: on your computers, every computer and phone out there that
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: you need access to, including the AI computers that are
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: running all these chips is what's driving this up. Comes
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: down to two major companies, Micron and Samsung. We'll talk
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: about those in a second, but the point is is
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: that's where the rotation is. It's why you have seen
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: these chip companies absolutely flying on the S and P
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: five hundred. Let's talk about a fresh IPO here with
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: sk Heinez. This is going to be one that will
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: be jumping onto the market, which will also start to
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: put more pressure on liquidity because it is a chip maker.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: This listing is going to be about a third the
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: size of SpaceX, so this is a behemoth and it's
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: going to be the largest international listing that we've had
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: since Saudi Aramco, which was the largest It was twenty
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: five point six billion that was back in twenty nineteen,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: and similar was Ali Baba which was in twenty fourteen.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: So point being, we've got more liquidity coming to the
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: market right now. Two blockbuster public debuts of AI stocks
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: could also pull a lot more capital from crypto in general.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: This is where we're going with this. The other one
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: to kind of keep an eye on right here is
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a little company I shouldn't say little, called CXMT. This
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: is a Chinese chip maker right now. Right now, they're
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: valued at about four point three billion through possible listing
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: that's going to be going on the Shanghai listing. Every
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: major manufacturer out there of any kind of device needs
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: chips to be able to produce them. So you have Apple, Android, Xbox,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: all the games, every mobile device, you can imagine, almost
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: every type of computer and electronic device is requiring these chips.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: There's two major companies out there, Micron and Samsung. Now
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: what you've got is China trying to position essentially a
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: state sponsored CXMT company that will start to do this,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and they are growing very fast. In other words, they're
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: starting to expand dramatically. If you look at their market
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: share right now, you can kind of compare right here
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: with Micron, their sky Heinex, Samsung taking the bulk of it,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: and then you look at this small amount right there
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: CXMT eight percent. Just kind of compare the all the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: way back to Q one of twenty twenty five, that
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: was three percent growth for six' eight and now eight.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Again nobody else has been really growing at that kind of.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Rate and this is going to be the largest listing
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: In china's. Histories and another thing that we'll play into,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: this of, course Is apple's interest IN. Cxmt, again because
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of the devices that are In, china they are going
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: to be utilizing this company for their chip, manufacturing and
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: of course that means that we look At membory devices
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: sold In china starting to ramp. Up this is a
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: major portion Of apples. Sales Even Tim cook had to
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: go To trump and the administration to be able to
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: buy from this company because of the way they are they're.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Blacklisted so if you look At, CHINA cxmt starting to
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: build their book right, now this Is july up To july,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: fifteen four point three billion on The SHANGHAI, ipo biggest In,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: china but when you compare it to A, usipo this is.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Minuscule so imagine the opportunity here that they're starting to.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Enter first small market share growth is. Growing they're competing Against, Samsung,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: micron And Sky. Hennix those are the kind of seams
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: situations that you're going.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: To see with chip.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Manufacturing and if we continue to see the pressure ON
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: ai and hyperscalers, growing this is one of the core.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Components so imagine what this will look. Like so here
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: is one of the companies that has access to some
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: of these chip makers In. China this Is Crane. Shares
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it's called THE Sse Star market fifty. Index and if
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: you look at the growth of this particular this is
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: available over there right now on stock, market so you
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: can see this is the kind of growth that we've
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: seen Since. September remember this is when we started to
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: see the implication OF ai starting to make its way
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: into chip manufacturing and was really a precursor even to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the explosion that we saw With. Micron so big news
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: ahead right there if they start to go, out because
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: this fund right now trades under the Name Crane Shares
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: market fifty on or Around july twenty if the fund's
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: name is going to change To Crane Shares China technology
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And Semiconductor star. Fifty so there you guys have. It
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: let me go over here To Crane shares just on
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the chart right. Now this Is june of twenty twenty.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Five just to take a. Look people are starting to
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: move on. This and look at this green candle right.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Here that's the daily right now as we're recording. This
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: that's the pop that this of course has been. Taking
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: everybody sees the writing on the, wall and that is
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: that chips for at least a, while are going to
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: be in the limelight FOR ai and. Productivity so how
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: is this going to affect? Bitcoin let's go over to
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: the bitcoin hash rate. PRICE i want to zoom in
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: on a little section right. Here let me kind of
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: get up here a little bit so you guys can see.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: This this right here was When china basically banned bitcoin.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Mining all, right that's the. Problem that's the last time
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: they really had an. Implication, this of, course is going
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: to start to get much more implicated because of the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: fact that now miners are looking for new way to earn.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Income and this is one of the factors that we're
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: playing into. Now if you show this right here in the,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: comparison these are two charts showing bitcoin minor shifting revenue
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: from mining TO. Ai all, right simple cut and dry company.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Comparison this was twenty twenty four versus the projected twenty
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: twenty six. Revenue and this is On Terri Wolf And
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: i'll explain why here in a, second but you can
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: kind of see here's THE q one of twenty twenty
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: five and then here it is right. Here the shift
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: is started to occur of where we're starting to see
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: these chips being leased out and used FOR ai instead
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: of bitcoin. Mining so when you look at the importance
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: of hash, rate because this tells the, market it pretty
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: much controls. Everything we saw this draw, down this massive
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: drawn down In january of twenty. Six let's take a
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: look at what happened. Then this of course was the
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: biggest drawdown that we had seen since The china mining.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Ban and if you look at, this this was a
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: severe winter storm in The United states for several large mining.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Firms remember down In, texas a lot Of texas operators
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: out there to cut, operations triggering a course a hash right,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: reduction so which of course hits. Revenue another POINT i
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: want to get at Is tarowolf. Themselves they jump on
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: a nineteen billion dollar data center lease deal With, anthropics
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: so you can see what was a bitcoin minor is
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: now starting to shift heavily INTO. AI i want to
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: go to a clip of THEIR ceo talking about, this
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: or THEIR cfo talking about. This take a.
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: Look you know that means average annual net operating income
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: of about eight hundred. Million the lease also has two
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: to five year. Extensions if you assume those extensions are,
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: exercised it's over thirty three billion of, revenue, RIGHT i
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: mean these are huge, numbers all.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Right so the reason that's important because that's a twenty year,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Lease so that pretty much Takes tarowolf out of the
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: equation for bitcoin. Mining does that mean we could see
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of other miners going in this direction as.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Well let's take a look at the active addresses historical,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: chart and this really happened right when THE etf started to.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Hit this is the. Falloff then you had centralization of
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of the sex, exchanges of centralized exchanges out
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: there that were centralizers in their. Wallet so again active addresses.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Falling this of course starts to take away from mining
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: in terms of the requirement for. It this is the
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: hash rate issue that we're facing right. Now No Lynn
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: alden is trying to address this, issue which probably get
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: her on to talk about, this but she talks about
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: bitcoin mining is going to end up in maybe other.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Hands take a.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: Look it does make them make sense economically to shift
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: more TOWARD, ai AND i think that that kind of
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: pushes bitcoin minors toward the scrappier parts of the, market
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: the ones going out to get the stranded natural, gas
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: and if anything that should be decentralizing for the. Network
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: where are we.
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: At in terms of the cost to actually mine bitcoin
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: versus the spot.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: PRICE i don't have it for at the. MOMENT i
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: mean right, now pure bitcoin. Miners it's rough out. There
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: it's a rough time out there for. Minors so when
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: do you think capital will rotate back into? Bitcoin the
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: current chip move has to slow, down all.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Right so she hit it on the head right, there
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: and that's the current chip move needs to slow. Down
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: and the rotation of CAPITAL i don't think is going
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: to slow, down especially if we continue to see migration
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: of these miners moving After it's kind of like a you,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: know a circle.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Jark.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Here you've GOT ai, growing which creates the. Demand the
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: demand forces bitcoin miners to look at alternative. Markets the
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: alternative markets start to see the bleed rate and reinvest
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: back into the chip. Manufacturing so it's you, know until
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: we see productivity AND ai, slowing which could. HAPPEN i
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: think that's the major factor here that's going to affect
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: continue to affect bitcoin mining. Overall the other thing you
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: have to look, at of, course is bip one. Ten
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: this is continuing to be a Potential BITCOIN fourk, nightmare
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: which is happening in twenty nine. Days, guys this is
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: going to happen one way or the. Other what side you're.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: On Here's Fred, gruger he talks about it right. Here
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Sixteen this is surprising. Too sixteen percent of reachable nodes
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: are signaling that they are in favor of bit one.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Ten go do some research on. It we've done a
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: full video on that to kind of explain, this but
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: basically fits bitcoin into two major. Areas the other area
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: you have to look at is sentiment around bit one.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Ten and this Is oudi kind of talking about. It
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: it's achieved the goal. Already it's already one because it's
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: utterly destroyed Bitcoin core as an, org and it's exposing
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the intellectual bankruptcy of open source bitcoin. Community so not
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: happy out there with the way things are. Going adam,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: back of, course this is another issue where he had
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a bitcoin treasury. Firm they were trying to do a
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: merger With Cantor. Fitzgerald you guys know who that, is
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and now they've completely scrapped, it So cantor is. Out
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: that's another spact that does not make it to the
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: market that was really centered around. Bitcoin petershift kind of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: hits on it right. Here he's talking about big banks
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: market doesn't really believe bitcoin is going to rise this,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: year and if they, Did stretch would be trading near
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: one hundred. Bucks instead it's at eighty. SEVEN i agree
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: with him. There we've talked about this quite a. Bit
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: pricing and, substantial very dividend cut, risks so this is
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: another factor that plays into all of this four bitcoins.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Price Now i've got a clip here Of Michael saylor
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: talking about something kind of.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Shocking, listen the downstream step is just take some you,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: know take sixty percent, credit forty percent, currency and create
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: a bitcoin back stable coin that pays seven, percent and
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: right now stable coins pay zero.
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: Percent what happens To Stretch if bitcoin falls to twenty
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: fifty thousand and stay there for, eighteen maybe twenty four,
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: months would the investors still receive their promised? Yield is
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: there a point at which they would lose their?
• 11:59
  Speaker 6: Principle the company is way over collateralized right, Now so
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: a bitcoin w we're to fall ninety ninety two, percent
• 12:15
  Speaker 6: then that's very bad for the. Equity we'd have to
• 12:18
  Speaker 6: refinance the, debt, right and it probably causes the credit
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: to trade week at ninety, Percent BUT i don't think
• 12:27
  Speaker 6: we would default on anything bitcoin falls seventy. Percent, AGAIN
• 12:33
  Speaker 6: i can't guarantee what prices all of the credit trade
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: at because that's a market sentiment, thing but we wouldn't
• 12:41
  Speaker 6: miss the, dividends all.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Right so a lot to unpack. There the key is
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: is THAT i Think sailor sees. It first of, all
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: he is wrong about one, thing and that is the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: market is paying seven percent on stable coins and they're
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: all piling in on. This robinhood announced it WITH usdg
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: in their vaults now coinbased one members can earn seven
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: percent and when LENDING usdc so it is out there
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: right now and. Available SO i don't know where he's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: coming from. There and the other factor that he's talking
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: about here is that If stretch doesn't come back TO
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: peg and we continue to see the market marking, down
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: that is the factor that she was asking about is
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: what happens if we continue to see a sub maybe
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: sixty or fifty k. Bitcoin these are the pressure points,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: that of course Micro strategy And stretch have on top of.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Them he also mentioned, sentiment AND i think that is
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: the biggest. Thing we've talked about this quite a bit
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: here on the, channel is that, bitcoin along with, crypto
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: trades on, sentiment AND i think they have finally realized,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: yes that is the. Case another factor that plays into
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: all of this narrative is what's going on WITH, ave
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: because right NOW ave has now launched their program where
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: stable vaults power their new. Program eventually you're going to
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: be able to GET i shouldn't say, Eventually now you're
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: able to get vaults on instead of a variable, rate
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: a fixed, rate so you'll have the chance of being
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: able to compete with deals Like. Stretch this is where
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: it gets very interesting versus the volatility of what we
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: could be seeing on some of these other products that
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: are out there around. Bitcoin so last POINT i want
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: to hit on is, well if you look at this
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: statement from and we go back into the archives, here
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: this is a statement From Jensen, WONG ceo Of. Nvidia
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: but this was back in twenty twenty, one and what
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: he was talking about here was that the value of
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: ethereum was going to be advancing in crypto, mining especially
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: as global semiconductor shortages start to. Rise so did he
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: see the future here semiconductor shortages driving pressure on bitcoin,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: miners miners now shifting TO ai and ethereum going to
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: proof of, steak which starts to change. Everything so his,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Point eth was the winner here and may end up
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: being the winner long run as we start to see
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: this market. Change so this is A i know it's
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: a complex thesis of understanding why CHIPS ai are affecting
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: bitcoin and crypto in, general but also look at just
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the liquidity and the sentiment nature of how trading. Works
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: once you start to see, that things will clear up for.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: You hopefully you guys can subscribe and we'll do more
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: on this. Soon if you like this, video like and,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: subscribe drop a comment down, below and also join our
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: free private member. Group the link is in the description