Latest / Uncomfortable Conversations with Josh Szeps / 2016 ELECTION TIME CAPSULE: Hear Josh's Reaction to Trump's First Election Win, with David Plotz

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2016 ELECTION TIME CAPSULE: Hear Josh's Reaction to Trump's First Election Win, with David Plotz · Uncomfortable Conversations with Josh Szeps

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  Get a humans. We have a treat for you today. Man is this a treat. I loved listening to this.
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  I say I loved listening to this rather than recording this because I don't recall much
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  about recording it since I recorded it the day after Trump won his first presidential
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  election race in 2016. Barack Obama was still the president of the United States and the
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  first person who I spoke to after Trump's victory when we were all in a state of shock I
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  was still living in New York City was David Plott's. He's the guy I went to to try to process
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  what we were all feeling and to try to prognosticate about what a first Trump term might look
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  like. You just have to sort of cast your mind back to the inevitability of the Hillary victory
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  and the sense that the United States was just on this sort of progressive path to realize how
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  blindsided we were and this is absolutely fascinating. This is a time capsule. I mean look I don't
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  want to talk it up too much. It may be ill hate it. But in listening for what we got right and what
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  we got wrong in our prognostications it's super useful in understanding what we might be getting
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  right and might be getting wrong today. It's fascinating to hear us talk about Putin and about
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  Eastern Europe and almost to be dismissive of the possibility of Putin taking another gamble on
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  Ukraine. It's fascinating for us to speculate about what Trump might do with the economy and whether
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  he might support rural and regional workers. Anyway it's like you've been given a time portal to
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  parachute back into the minds of where we were immediately after the first time Trump was elected.
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  I don't know what's going to happen on Tuesday but I just thought it amidst all of the
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  cacophony of everything else that you're hearing you might want to take a breath and you might
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  want to just hear something a little bit left field. This has nothing to do in a literal way with
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  the current race but in a symbolic way in a deep way I suppose of course it does. David Plots
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  is an American journalist. He's the founder and CEO of CityCast which is the local news podcast
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  network but I encountered him because he was the editor of Slate and he's a co-host of the
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  Slate political gab first which remains one of the best podcasts out there. This week and until
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  we have a president-elect we are releasing a lot more episodes than we normally do and they're
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  all available for free if you listen to them through sub-stack. That just means downloading the
• 2:37
  sub-stack app and you can listen to them there. If you already are a member of sub-stack you know
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  this. If you're already a premium subscriber then you can listen to the premium episodes for free
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  wherever you are on any app you choose but just for now as a public service we're releasing everything
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  for free. However if you're listening to this on another podcast app you're only going to get a
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  teaser of it and it's well worth listening to and it's well worth bothering to just download
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  the sub-stack app and and subscribe and listen to it there. It doesn't cost you anything.
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  So yeah please enjoy this walk down memory lane. Join me in the time machine for me and David Plots.
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  David Plots thanks for being on We The People. Thanks Josh. It's good to be here on such a dark day.
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  I know and you're someone who I've admired from afar for a long time and who I always thought
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  would be a great guest on the show and in a way it's sort of weird that this is the circumstance.
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  I feel like there's there's oh I've always wanted to have dinner with I don't know
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  let's just say metal and all bright but I bump into her on the Titanic and I'm like oh well now
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  we have to talk quickly about all the things that I wanted to talk about. Where's your head at?
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  I don't think the people on the Titanic knew that they were going to go down. I think you could have
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  had a leisure leisurely conversation with her after the iceberg but before the sinking. I bump into
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  as she's going to her room to gather her things to get on a life raft. What's your life raft?
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  in my trump life raft? Yeah my trump life raft is the you know a loving family and community
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  and I live in thriving metropolis so I think that probably my immediate life will be okay.
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  So I want to start by talking about the reasons and a surprising contingent of my listeners
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  for some reason were flirting with trump or even considering trump which I which sort of surprised
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  me and a few other people in my space like Sam Harris and people like that to learn on Twitter
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  that there was quite a lot of pushback from people who were really anti-clinton and that this now
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  sort of makes some sense. So I want to speak to them as much as just as much as to the people
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  who are already on our side who are feeling traumatized and bereft. There are a couple of let's
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  just I'm going to name a few areas where I think I'm worried that trump will be a terrible president
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  and why don't you just pick out a few of those that are the most glaring for you. I would say
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  one domestic policy to be foreign policy. Those two I think I think you'll probably be
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  re-decorating the Oval Office. It's going to be terrible. That will be a lot of goals.
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  So let's just I mean let's just go through them. So energy in the environment I think he's likely
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  to be captive to big fossil fuel companies and he doesn't really think that climate chaos is
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  a concern. The Supreme Court obviously is probably going to have three vacancies maybe in the next
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  four years between Justice Breyer and Justice Ginsburg and obviously the open seat that currently
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  exists. So he can so if he trusts ultra conservatives in his recommendations for justices that could
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  entrench and those were of course all democratic positions so that could make a entrench
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  conservative court for a generation. Well I mean I'm afraid to jump in on those first two.
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  I think I think the where the list the the danger to me of trump is where his interests align with
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  what a Republican Congress can feasibly do. So on energy policy that's a great one. That's one
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  where the Republican caucus is very pro you know any fossil fuel any fossil fuel in a storm
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  and will not do anything about climate change. They'll defund research into it. All of that stuff
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  definitely that's going to happen and that's going to be a disaster. It's a Supreme Court of course
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  and and you know he'll he'll point totally conservative justices. I'm not sure he's going to get
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  three justices who start with one. I think Breyer and and Ginsburg will do their best to hold on
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  if they can. Then on Iran I think he probably will do what he can to roll back
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  that the court there. Pretty much tear up that deal. I tweeted last night that my prediction is
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  that Iran will have a nuclear weapon by the next election because I think he rips up the deal.
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  Iran scrambles to get a new because quickly as it possibly can before America can get it can get
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  it shit together to for a military strike that would work in any way if that is even possible.
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  And yeah maybe that goes as quickly as it can. That's possible. I mean I don't I'd where I don't
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  think he I don't think he's he I don't think he first of all I don't think he has any real solutions
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  for his people. I don't think he can do anything to prevent the the industrialization of the economy
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  to bring good jobs back to rural areas in America to reverse a reverse opiate
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  opiate addiction and improve the health outcomes of poor white Americans. Well he might be
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  able to do something about opiates. I mean that you could imagine just narrowly that being like one
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  tiny area where his sense of non-ideological pragmatism you're right. But I guess I don't think
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  I don't think that that rural West Virginia is something going to become like it was
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  four years ago. They're not going to be great jobs there. I mean not only are they're not good
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  solutions to this because the deindustrialization and the decline of the manufacturing base in the
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  United States is an inevitable and desirable outcome of globalization because we're a services
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  based economy now and it's actually better for China to make the $280 couch that I just bought
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  from IKEA which would otherwise be $1500 if you had to make it in America. But even if he did care
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  even if those policies were possible he's not the guy who gives a shit about them like nobody
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  gives a fuck about the about Trump voters. The only people who give a fuck about Trump voters
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  less than we smug cultural liberal elites, a Donald Trump and Paul Ryan.
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  Like he's that's awfully cynical. I don't I don't think Trump
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  do you think he's going to enact any policies that improve the lives of the working pool?
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  No, no, I don't think he will. And that is his base. Yeah, I don't think he will.
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  The where I don't think for example on immigration I don't actually think he's going to be able to do
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  or will do anything that's significantly different from what Obama's done. The Republicans,
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  the Republicans as a whole don't really want to radically change. They don't want to radically get
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  scale back immigration of high educated workers and they the you know there's not you know maybe
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  he'll build a bit of slightly bigger fence than there is that now in certain parts of the border.
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  But he there's not a massive move in the Republican base to actually in the Republican elected
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  official them to actually deport millions of people. So that's not going to happen on trade. I
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  don't mean he probably will do something to antagonize China and Asian trading partners that
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  will that will be bad. But I don't think again I don't I doubt he will do anything too radical
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  because the Republican party as a whole doesn't want to do anything too radical. There's enough
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  sort of Chamber of Commerce interest in maintaining well this relatively free trade that I think
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  they'll they'll they won't do anything terrible. But you're pointing to the big to the elephant
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  in the room here which is the extent to which Trump is timable right. I mean what you're saying
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  what you're articulating is a is a pragmatic vision of the of the Trump of the of the Republicans
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  who are conservatives who were flirtatious with Trump on the basis of the fact that they were
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  going to be able to to regard him as a as a willing partner. But if I mean Andrew Sullivan makes
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  the point that if they haven't been able to been willing or able to control him up until now
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  there's no reason to be optimistic that the trade he's going to give a shit what the Chamber
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  of Commerce thinks about tariffs. But it's not that so much as I think Trump so there's two things
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  are at war and Trump and one is this untame ability and kind of the narcissistic I'm going to do
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  whatever I want and the other is the laziness that he's not willing he actually doesn't want to do
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  any work. He wants to he wants to appear in public and be grandiose and make massive pronouncements
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  and project power. But he doesn't want to actually do any of the hard work of governing and making
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  decisions. That's that's not he's not interested in that. There's that amazing anecdote in one of
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  the stories about Trump from earlier this year when he was reached out. He reached out to
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  Kasich one who I forget who reached out to him but campaign manager I think Manifort maybe
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  reached out to Kasich and said would you like to be the vice president and Kasich said I'm not
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  really but and Manifort said well you know you'll you'll just go back to my joke at the beginning
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  you'll be in charge of domestic policy and foreign policy and I was like what am I going to be
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  what what what jurisdiction am I and so then Kasich said well what is Trump going to do and
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  and the person said he's going to make America great again so Trump doesn't actually so if you
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  if you begin with the premise that Trump doesn't actually want to do the work then it becomes who
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  is going to do the work and if it if the people doing the work in the Trump administration
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  are basically very right wing conservative politicians and and their their minions then you can
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  sort of predict it's going to be it's going to be not that different from what a Ted Cruz
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  administration was and somewhat more right wing than what a George W Bush administration was but
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  not massively radically different that's an interesting point and I and this is this kind of
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  there's one of my big concerns here is that take George W Bush as an example there's no I
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  don't believe that we would have had an Iraq war if it was just up to George W Bush operating in
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  a vacuum right I mean he was not an experienced foreign policy thinker and the people he surrounded
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  himself with were experienced foreign policy thinkers Cheney and Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld had spent
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  every year since the original Gulf War writing op-eds in the national review about how it was a mistake
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  not to go all the way back dad and finish the job so when they saw an opportunity and a country
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  in crisis and a Middle East that had obviously crushed crossed a threshold they took what they
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  always wanted to do and they enacted it my worry is who does Trump then surround himself with on the
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  issue of energy policy which he doesn't give a shit about on the issue of Supreme Court nominees
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  which he probably doesn't really give a shit about on the issue of foreign policy which he probably
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  doesn't really give a shit about I mean he's not a policy one he doesn't care about the details
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  as you say so that team if if that team is Giuliani Chris Christie that's as terrifying as
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  Trump just winging it I don't know about that I just I think that that that most people and I
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  think even Giuliani and Christie and Gingrich and Steve Bannon I would put in a different category
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  but the politicians who are allied with Trump are loose cannons but they're more or less
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  more or less I move in the world of right wing politics and and so they are going to pursue
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  policies on energy the policies will be terrible they're definitely going to be terrible
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  on the Supreme Court the nominees will be terrible horrible right wing conservative judges no doubt
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  but I don't I guess I just don't think I don't think that that Trump is going to
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  I don't for for see a change on I don't see like a massive change in the nature of what
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  government is and how it operates from him I think he'll hit one thing I guess one thing
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  that will change is that he lies and that he will use the institutions of government to
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  create lies and so the government which we rely on for trusted information for facts for
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  careful analysis the economy and seeing what work and what isn't for counting things correctly
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  that will no longer become trustworthy that's going to be terrible they're all sorts of
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  things they won't for political reasons they won't allow research on climate change presumably
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  there'll be things that they just stop doing which are important information gathering things
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  but I don't I just don't I don't think he's going to take us into a massive war anywhere I don't
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  think he's going to launch nukes no I agree I agree and so I guess yeah as you say that what occurs
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  to me is that it's probably worth being it's probably worth not conflating into one big bucket all
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  of the difference spheres of influence and the and the risks that they entail right because there are
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  some areas of government control over which the executive has power which are predictable and
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  you're right on energy policy to take just the first one I pull out my ass there's not a huge
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  amount that you can do wrong I mean you can just be predictably irresponsible right on the
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  climate crisis that's what I'm pretty yeah and there'll be pipelines they're going to be digging
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  pipelines that's right there's going to be pipelines with the with the exception with the exception
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  of a big oil spill or something you can't really totally fuck up everything on the basis of energy
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  policy other than to the extent that you you encourage climate change then there are some areas where
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  there's a lot more uncertainty so if you think about the NATO security guarantee and our position
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  towards Russia for example you know the the as a non-American I care deeply about America being
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  the power that it upholds the global security guarantee and that that doesn't mean what a lot of
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  critics of this perspective a lot of American critics often think it does which is why do we have
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  to be the world's policemen why is it always our job to put out all the fires why don't we go
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  like on other countries deal with their own shit I understand that but fundamentally even if you
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  don't enact the power that power has to be there as an unstated bedrock of of international diplomacy
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  in order to sustain the liberal democracy that has been sustained globally since the Second World War
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  and he has no interest in that and no understanding I don't think of that so and but I think
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  but again that goes to another laziness I don't think he gives a shit about it I don't think it's
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  a major issue for him I think he said all that stuff about NATO and never thought about it
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  and then we'll never think about it again and it's not important to him and so the bigger question
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  is are the the kind of generals and the the the defense department or folks that he appoints
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  are they people who don't believe the NATO security guarantee and no it's probably going to be
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  neocons who love the NATO security guarantee and gonna you know just want us to to they're going
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  to be fine with it they're just gonna want to build the military like crazy this comes down to a
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  question of whether or not his temperament and that's an overused word in the campaign but like
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  what you need from a president is is a constitution that I think veers towards de-escalation
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  and not taking things personally and not being reactive and not putting your foot in it and not
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  being easily manipulated right and in a world in which there are lots of complicated
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  multipolar dynamics going on between Assad and Putin and not China and career in Japan
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  and you know the idea Putin is playing a game of three-dimensional chess out there with the
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  United States and I've even been critical of the Obama administration for playing a game of
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  checkers in on Syria and on Russia I mean the strategic thinking and cool headedness that you
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  want from a commander in chief is gonna be lacking in the next president that is absolutely the case
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  that that is the number one worry and and I think you can you can see that both in this sort of
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  longer term strategic stuff in the Middle East or other parts of the world in East Asia
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  and you can also imagine what it might be like in a moment of an ISIS attack on the United States or
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  some some some crisis some some security crisis which has a domestic element where the kind of
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  excessive unbounded un incoherent attack incoherent response that he might make that would that
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  would violate norms that would step on the constitution even with George W Bush after 9-11
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  he did what he did you know we didn't we didn't throw thousands of Americans into jail there were
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  no detention camps set up outside of Pekipsi for for Americans to to be you know heard it into and
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  for American Muslims weren't rounded up and unmass and a Trump Trump crisis that kind of thing
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  where the executive can act autonomously and with authority is it's scary yeah I mean imagine
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  if they were black riots imagine if there was another Ferguson and instead of trying to play
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  case he came out and used that footage and used his appearances on Fox News to put in politically
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  expedient ways and and crises got exacerbated instead of I don't know I can
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  that's that what again I'm sort of collapsing and conflating two separate things one is the domestic
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  question of whether or not he has authoritarian tendencies and would do things like you know I
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  mean I think it's a bit far fetched to imagine that he would round people up and put them into camps
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  but you can imagine him consistently opting for expedient ways to use divisiveness to entrench
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  his power and his popularity and to scapegoat others and to never make it about being his following
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  because you know he's not he is not constitutionally capable of saying that he screwed up or
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  even believing that he's he screwed up so you can imagine things getting skewed that way
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  domestically but really for me as a non-American the fact that 5% of the population of the world
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  gets to vote and on on policies that have massive implications for the remaining 95%
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  and that of those 5% we're really only talking about voters in the rust belt I mean the idea
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  that 52% of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin are the people who are deciding the impact that climate
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  change will have on Bangladeshi farmers and the impact that Putin will have on Estonian free speech
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  activists is weird well be sure but on the other hand there are 1.3 billion people in China