Latest / Rice on the Radio / Fantasy Football 2026 Draft Strategy: Keepers, Auction Drafts, Stacking & Value

Transcript

Fantasy Football 2026 Draft Strategy: Keepers, Auction Drafts, Stacking & Value · Rice on the Radio

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: I guess there's only one way to find out.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Let's do it to it, right?
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: Hello.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: Hello.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to Rice on the Radio.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: We are now on part three of Fantasy Football 202.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: Part one was the process.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: Do the homework, understand what the ADP is, understand tiers, reading the room, build your team, right?
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: Part two was me actually putting my money where my mouth is and giving you my running back, receiver, quarterback, tight end tiers.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: So now we go one step further.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: Because you can prepare for your fantasy draft until you are blue in the face.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: You can mock draft 150 times.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: You can know ADP like you're studying for the goddamn SATs.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: You can even have the prettiest spreadsheet anybody's ever seen.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: And then the day arrives.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: The draft starts.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: Somebody snipes your guy one pick before you.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: Six quarterbacks go in ten picks.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: The running backs disappear two rounds earlier than you expected.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: Somebody you thought had absolutely no chance of reaching you falls directly into your lap.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_01: Or maybe, maybe you're in a keeper league and 24 players disappeared before the draft even started.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: Or you're in an auction, and the first three players go for prices that make absolutely no sense.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: So now what?
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: Well, that's what we're going to be talking about today.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: Because there's a difference between strategy and tactics.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: Your strategy is the framework you prepared.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: Your tactics are what the hell you do once 11 other people start messing with it.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: And you know what?
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Dyson probably gave the best fantasy football advice anybody's ever given without ever talking about fantasy football.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: Fantasy drafts punch you in the mouth.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: The important thing isn't avoiding the punch.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's knowing what to do next.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Extra, extra.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: Keep the light blow.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: New York talking with the late nights go from the garden blow to the stadium.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: What does it mean?
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Right on the radio.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Coming to your speakers, big state, box to talk, break the less death giant next on the ride.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Run it down lights, hit the light, right on the radio.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do it to it in the So let's start there.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: There are a million named fantasy football strategies now.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: Hero RB, Zero R B, robust RB, zero wide receiver, late round quarterback, you know, whatever somebody invents next week so they can put a new name on the thumbnail.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't think any of them are inherently stupid.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, look, they exist for a reason, right?
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: Hero RB says basically get one elite running back and then build up your receivers before coming back to running back later.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: Zero RB says the opposite, it says load up everywhere else, especially receiver, and try to manufacture running back production later.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: Robust running back says the position is scarce.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: So get multiple good ones early and then figure out receiver afterwards.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: Fine.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Understand all of them.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: Use one if it fits what you believe in.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: My problem starts when the strategy becomes more important than the players themselves.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: If I walk into a draft saying I'm going hero running back, and then another running back I have ranked way higher than everybody else falls directly into my rot lap in round three, I'm not passing on him so that I can receive my hero RB merit badge at the end of the night.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: Who gives a shit?
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: Build the better team.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: That's why the closest thing I have to a named strategy is probably value-based drafting.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: And technically, value-based drafting is more specific than just saying, oh, this guy fell 15 picks, he's value.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: The idea is more about what advantage a player gives you compared to with the alternatives at his position, right?
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: But when I'm actually drafting, I take that a little bit further.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: I'm looking at the player's price, I'm looking at the tier, I'm looking at the positional scarcity behind him, I'm looking at my roster, I'm looking at who picks before I come back, and I'm looking at what the room is doing.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: So let's say a receiver is sitting there 15 picks way past his ADP.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, that should get my attention.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: But here I am sitting with four receivers and one running back, and there's really only one running back left in the tier that I actually trust to start.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: I'm probably taking the running back.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: Because I'm drafting a team.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not collecting assets like Pokemon cards.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: And the opposite is true too, by the way.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I don't particularly like a player at his normal price.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Doesn't mean I hate him forever.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody's got a price.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: A player I hate in round four might become a player that I love in round seven.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: Same player, different bet.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: That's fantasy football.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: And this is where positional runs get real interesting.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: You know, five quarterbacks go in a row, everybody immediately starts sweating.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: Oh shit, oh shit, quarterbacks are going.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta get one, I gotta get one.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, maybe.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: But here's what else happened.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: Five running backs, receivers, and tight ends didn't get drafted.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: What did the quarterback run do to the rest of the board?
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: If there's one quarterback left in a tier and I'm already comfortable taking that position, maybe I joined the run.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: If there are four quarterbacks left that I basically think are the same, what the hell am I panicking for?
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: Take the receiver, everybody just let fall.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_01: That's really the rule.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: Don't react to the run.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: React to what the run did to the board.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I will say there is one named strategy this year that I actually really like as a framework.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: And it's from uh Jeff Raff.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: Jesus Christ.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: Jeff Ratcliffe.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: There we go.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry, Jeff, to get your name wrong.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if you listen to Sirius XM Fantasy Radio, he's on at 9 a.m.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: A little shout out there, a little plug for him.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Not that he needs it.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: I need it more than him.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, he calls it boomerang running back, right?
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: So in a normal 12-team, one quarterback league, his basic structure is round one, you take running back or receiver, basically best available on the board.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: And then round two, you take the opposite.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: So after two rounds, you should have one running back and one receiver.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: Then rounds three and four, you go receiver.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Then in round five, you boomerang back to running back.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: So after five rounds, two running backs, three receivers, and I like the idea.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: The reason it exists now is important.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: You know, traditional hero running back would sometimes tell you to take an elite running back and then just wait until rounds six, seven, eight before you really start attacking running back too.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's becoming way harder to do in today's fantasy market.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: The running back market, I guess, has moved up.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I think part of it is honestly because everybody has so much fantasy information at their fingertips now.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: You know, there are no more secrets anymore.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: Some running back has two good preseason games, and coach says one nice thing about him in front of the press, that immediately turns into somebody making a 19-minute YouTube video about his yards after the catch.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Six podcasts call him their favorite sleeper.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: Congratulations, guys.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: He's not a sleeper anymore.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: The sleeper industry has pretty much killed the sleeper.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: So the idea behind boomerang is get the anchor, get your guy, right?
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: And then build your receivers.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Then get back to running back before you're shopping in a completely different aisle.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: Now, would I personally follow Ratcliffe's two running back, three wide receiver formula every single time?
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, honestly.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: In a normal half PPR league, I might be happier coming out of five rounds with three running backs and two receivers.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: I just think receiver is deeper this year.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: I like having the extra running back.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I mean, maybe my draft goes running back, wide receiver, running back, and call it the quick boomerang, right?
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: Fine.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: The exact order isn't exactly what interests me.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: What interests me is that by the end of round five, generally, I want some combination of two or three backs and two or three receivers.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: So how do I get there?
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you read the board.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: And Ratcliffe himself changes boomerang in a 16-man league, by the way, just for the record, for anybody in deeper leagues, the second running back comes back earlier because more players disappear before your picks.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: But that proves the larger point of what I'm trying to make here.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: If your strategy can't adjust to the league you're playing in, it probably isn't much of a strategy to begin with.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: And that brings me into keeper leagues.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: Because if you ask me, hey Ian, should I keep this guy?
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: My first answer should probably always be tell me your rules.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: How many keepers, what does the player cost?
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: Does the costs go up every year?
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: How many teams?
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: Full PPR, half, one quarterback super flex.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: Can you keep the player forever?
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: Because all of those things matter.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: Your draft in a keeper league doesn't start with round one.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: Your draft starts with a keeper decision.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I think people either completely overthink this or completely underthink it.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_01: Underthinking it is these are my two best players, I'm keeping them done and done.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: Overthinking it is, well, you know, this guy is probably only an RB25, but I get him in round 11, so look how many rounds of value I'm getting.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: But do you actually want that player?
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: The way that I approach keepers is it's it's pretty simple, actually.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_01: First, give me the three or four best legitimate players on the roster, right?
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: Then let's talk price.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_01: What's the keeper cost?
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: What's the opportunity?
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: What's the role for the player?
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: What changed around him?
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: And what does keeping him allow me to do once the real draft starts?
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: Because cheap does not automatically mean valuable.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: If I can keep an elite running back with a second round pick, I'm probably pretty interested.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: I get to retain my first, I've got an elite running back, and now I've solved something before the draft even begins.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: That has value beyond just saying, well, technically, this other guy saved me seven rounds.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: A keeper can buy you freedom.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: If my keeper is an elite running back, I don't enter the draft needing a running back.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: If my keeper is a tight end and I really trust at a good cost and a good value, and everybody starts going crazy over tight ends, great guys.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: Have fun.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not participating.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'll take a running back or receiver you just allow to drop to me.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: You know, in my home league, it is notorious for slamming running backs and just keeping the best player available no matter what.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think this year, in the first round, there's only four picks.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: The one, the two, or the one, the three, and like the five and the six.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, that's it.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: Look, personally, I am very careful about giving up my first round pick as a keeper, especially if I'm near the top.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: If I'm holding 1-0-1 and the player costs me my first round pick, I have to ask, why don't I just put him back?
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I take him again, maybe I get somebody better, you know?
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe somebody else can't keep that player or has a couple of those players and they can only keep one.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: Keeping the first round pick preserves flexibility.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now, flip it.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_01: If I'm drafting 10th and I'm keeping a player who's normally a top three selection, like Jamar Chase or Puka or even Gibbs or Bichon, whatever, that's a different conversation.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's real value.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, keeper cost doesn't exist in a vacuum, it exists relative to what that pick could have been.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: And then we get to keeper inflation here, too.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: This is where normal ADP can completely lie to you if you're not paying attention to what's going on.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: So 12-team league, two keepers per team, potentially 24 players are already gone off the board.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: Your draft hasn't even started, and we're 24 names deep.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now, now let's make it worse.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_01: What if uh what if 18 of those 24 players are running backs?
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: All of a sudden, that fifth round running back on your normal redraft rankings, well, he might be the eighth best running back available in your league.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he's not going in the fifth anymore, brother.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_01: Somebody is taking him in the third.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: And somebody at your draft is going to yell, Reach.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: The player pool has changed, sir.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: Don't draft against the ADP number on the website.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: Draft against the players who are actually in the room with you.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: And one last, one last keeper point here.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Quarterbacks are where league format becomes enormous, right?
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Josh Allen in a normal one quarterback keeper league, amazing player.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: He's got an over 50% chance.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: If you draft him, he's got an over 50% chance to get to the playoffs.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_01: But if he costs my second round pick, I have to consider what running back or wide receiver talent I'm giving away to lock down a position where I might still find a really good starter much later.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: Superflex, okay, forget everything I just said.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: Completely different economy.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: Superflex quarterback leagues are a mess.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: But that's why the rule comes first.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: Now for auctions.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_01: Auctions I'm torn on, right?
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: I love the auction league that I'm in.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: Shout out Blood, Sweat, and Beers.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it's a 16-man auction league that I've been in for about almost 15 years.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: It's been running for 18.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: It is probably the most competitive league that I'm in.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody knows ball in that league.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, mostly everybody.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: Sometimes people just get lucky.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: And it uh I've won it once, and that's one of my crowning achievements in my fantasy history here.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think one auction league for you is good.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: If you start doing multiple auction leagues, you're gonna drive yourself crazy.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: This is the deep end of the pool, right?
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: There's no messing around over here.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: Snake drafts are fun, but they limit your access to who you are available.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: If I pick ninth, I cannot draft a guy who went third.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: He's gone.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: Auction, everybody's available to everybody until the hammer drops.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: You know?
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: So hero running back, zero running back, boomerang, all that snake draft stuff we just talked about, it's pretty much gone.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: The question isn't when do I draft him?
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: The question is what am I willing to pay to draft him?
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: And the biggest lesson auction drafts have taught me took me longer to learn than it probably should have.
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's track your money, obviously, right?
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_01: But more importantly, it's track everybody else's money.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: Your budget is only half the board.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_01: Everybody else's budget is the other half.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_01: Because raw dollars don't tell the whole story.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: Here's an example.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: Let's say, let's say I got$115 left, right?
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_01: And there's another manager that's got$135.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: So technically, he's richer than I am.
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: Except he still needs two running backs and a quarterback and a tight end and half a bench.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I already have my running back one and a and a couple of receivers.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now a running back comes up, and we go back and forth, and he wins him.
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: I lose out, he spent 60 bucks on him, right?
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: Great player, good for him.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: Couldn't be happier.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: But now, look at what happened to his buying power.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: He still has minimum bids he has to preserve.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: And I still have my$115.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: The number that matters isn't who has the most money.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's who has the most money among the managers who still need what I need.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's the leverage that you're trying to find and hold on to when it comes to auction drafts.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: And that's why I like going into auctions with a positional budget written down and ready to go.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: They're not commandments, but they're good guidelines.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I think roughly this much for running back one, this much for running back two, this much for receiver, for quarterback, for tight end.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: Fine.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, look, if my plan price on somebody is 32 and it gets to 33, I'm not throwing my chair.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: 34, maybe.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: But if I'm suddenly at 39, okay, what did the extra$7 just cost me?
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: Because seven auction dollars might be my quarterback.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: It might be my running back three.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: It might be the difference between bidding$3 and$2 on the sleeper that I love at the end of the draft when nobody has any money.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: Every extra dollar has an opportunity cost.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: And that's also why you need tiers with price ranges, not just rankings.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_01: If I have two receivers that are basically even on my board, but one costs$51 and the other costs$37, guess what?
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: They're not even anymore.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: The price changed the evaluation.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I used to be way more stars and scrubs than I am now.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: And I understand the logic behind it.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I've got CeeDee Lamb, I've got Jamar Chase.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: These dudes can combine for 70, 80 points.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: Good luck.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: Until one of them scores 18.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: Or one of them gets hurt.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, now you got one star and seven prayers.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: And especially in deeper leagues, the waiver wire might not save you.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: There aren't enough bodies.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_01: That doesn't mean I'm against stars.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not advocating for a roster where every player is perfectly average and nobody scares anybody.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: I will spend on elite players, don't get me wrong.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: But my preference now is probably balance with selective aggression.
• 20:54
  SPEAKER_01: I want some stars.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: I also want the floor of my team to be high enough that my expensive guys don't have to perform miracles every Sunday.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: A huge ceiling can win you a week.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: A strong team floor can keep you winning all season.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: And this is one area where I think auction advice sometimes gets oversimplified.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: Be patient.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: Let everybody spend.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: Sure, that's good advice until it isn't.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: You can spend two hours congratulating yourself for not overpaying and suddenly realize, oh, everybody I actually wanted is gone already.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now what do I do?
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: Look at all this fake money I saved.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: You cannot take the auction budget home with you, man.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_01: Bargain hunting is not the goal.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: Building the team is the goal.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: So don't get dragged into stupid emotional bidding wars.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: But when the player and the price line up, don't be afraid to pull the trigger, man.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: Spend.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_01: As for nomination, Nominations, well, this is the fun part, right?
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: Because nominations are kind of strategy here, too.
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: If I'm not spending on an elite quarterback, you know what?
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: Let's throw one out there.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe someone else wants to spend that extra 12% of their budget on him.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_01: Beautiful.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: Get that money out of the room.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: If I already got my running back one and I'm not shopping for anyone right now, let's start fucking throwing running backs up there.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: Brees Hall, Kyron Williams, whoever's left.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: Let everybody else fight, man.
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_01: Every dollar they're spending on the position I already solved is a dollar they can't use against me later.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's also a perfect opportunity to pick on some homers in your league.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: If you've been drafting in the same auction with the same people for years, exploit what you know, man.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, you get three Giant fans in the room and they're all waiting on Isaiah Likely and they want him to fall down and be their late tight end steal.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: Guess what, man?
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I nominate Isaiah Likely before half of the tight ends are even gone.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: $4,$2,$6, 7.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: Now they're all bidding against each other.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Money leaves the room.
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_01: Somebody probably overpaid regardless.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: And maybe I just removed the sleeper that they wanted.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I pissed off three of my friends.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: Great.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's all awesome.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_01: Productive nomination.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_01: I will say the opposite does apply here too, though.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_01: If there's one late receiver that I really want and somehow nobody in the room is talking about him, don't bring attention to him.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: Don't bring attention to the receiver position, to the draft board of them.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: Change the subject.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: Nominate quarterbacks, dominate a tight end, nominate a defense.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: Who cares?
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: Start another positional run if you can.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let everybody look somewhere else.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: But there is one gigantic warning with all of this.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: Never manipulate the room with a bid you aren't willing to own.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: What I mean by that is if you think somebody is an$8 player and he's sitting at five, sure, I'll pay six.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe seven.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: If everybody goes silent, I'm fine with owning him.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_01: But if I don't even want the guy and I yell 10 because I'm absolutely convinced somebody else will say 11, and then everybody shuts up, congratulations.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: You just fucked up.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: That's not price enforcement.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: That that's you buying a player you didn't want at a price you didn't even like.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_01: Another common uh bonus strategy kind of thing people do is uh it's stacking.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: So stacking, stacking without getting stupid, right?
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: Stacking is a trap that I will admit that I fall into more often than I would like to admit to.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: Stacks are fun, man.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: You got the quarterback, you got his receiver, Monday night comes, you're down 17, and then boom, 35-yard touchdown.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: Quarterback gets passing points, receiver gets the catch, the yards, the touchdown.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: One real life football play just changed your entire fantasy matchup.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's awesome.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: There is a legitimate value in that.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: Those are correlated points.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: They're correlated points which can increase your weekly ceiling, but also concentrate your risk.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_01: Because correlation goes the other direction too.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_01: Offense is a terrible game, both guys struggle, quarterback gets hurt, now your receiver might take a hit too.
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't want stacking to become the reason I'm drafting bad value.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: But if you have the opportunity, it's something you should look into.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_01: The way that I look at it, if I want to stack a wide receiver and quarterback or a tight end and a quarterback, I would say it like this.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like, let's say, you know, round four, five, whatever.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_01: I drafted Roma Dunze because I wanted Roma Dunze.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: And then later in the draft, I'm looking at quarterbacks.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Caleb Williams is still there, Jared Goff is still there, Justin Herbert's still there, Trevor Lawrence is still there.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_01: They're all somewhere in the same general neighborhood for me on my rankings.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_01: Well, now the fact that I already have Rome kind of gives Caleb the edge here.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's smart.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: What you don't want to do is oh well, well, well, I I drafted Rome in round four, so therefore I have to take Caleb three rounds ahead of where I value him because I need the stack.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: A stack can move somebody within a tier.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: It should not move somebody multiple tiers.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: Draft the players first.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: Let the stack be the bonus.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's why it's called bonus.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's extra.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: There's also a difference between a quarterback receiver stack and an accidental owning half the NFL offense stack.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: You know, if you have the QB wide receiver one, wide receiver two running back combo for whatever reason, at some point you're not you're not stacking anymore.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: You're just praying one offense scores 45 points every week.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: Don't ever put too many eggs in one basket.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sometimes okay with owning the running back and the receiver, depending on the situation, but really spread the wealth, man.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: You gotta diversify your bonds.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_01: Really, everything today comes back to one final thing, right?
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: Know your league, not just fantasy football, your league.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: Does your league hammer running backs every year?
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_01: That's great to know.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I make sure I get one.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_01: Then when everybody else starts the predictable run, I can attack whatever they're letting fall.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: Does somebody always draft quarterback early?
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_01: Does somebody wait until the waiver wire for a tight end every single year?
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_01: Does one guy love rookies?
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: Does somebody homer draft the Cowboys?
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: Does somebody panic once they realize they're the last manager without a position?
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_01: All of this stuff matters.
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: Let's say I'm considering a tight end, and there are three managers between my pick and the next one.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: All three don't have a tight end.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: That sounds pretty scary.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I should take one.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: But what if I know two of those guys historically don't give a shit about tight end?
• 28:45
  SPEAKER_01: Now the probability changes.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: Player elevation tells you who you want.
• 28:51
  SPEAKER_01: League tendencies can tell you when you can afford to wait.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_01: And this might be my favorite line out of everything we've talked about putting this episode together.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: Consensus rankings are built for an average draft room.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_01: Your draft room is not average.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: You know these people.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you don't know these people, but that's even plays more into my point.
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_01: You're not playing against ADP.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: You're playing against 11 actual idiots that you've probably known for 10 years.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: Learn what they do and use it against them.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: At the end of the day, none of this is an exact science.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: You know, fantasy football people desperately want it to be.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we have the projections, we have the advanced metrics, we have target shares, we have offensive line rankings, yards after contact, Vegas, models, yada, yada, yada, yada.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_01: It's all useful.
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_01: Use it.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_01: But none of it is a guarantee.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: You're trying to put the odds in your favor.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_01: That's it.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: You are making the best estimated decision you can with the information available.
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_01: Then you make one, and then you make another one, and then another one, and then another one, and then it's round 15 or 16 or 17, and that's the fantasy draft.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_01: The best managers aren't the people who magically predict every breakout.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: They make more good decisions than bad ones.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_01: So do some homework.
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, thanks for the donation, guys.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: Know your board, know your rules, know your league, know what you're willing to pay.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_01: Have a plan.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_01: And when the draft inevitably takes that plan, crumples it into a ball, and throws it directly into the garbage yellow and Kobe.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: Good.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_01: Now adapt.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_01: Preparation doesn't give you a script.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: Preparation gives you options.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_01: And when everybody else starts panicking, hopefully you've prepared enough to see the options that they missed.
• 31:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's gonna do it here for me.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: This was part three of the Fantasy Football 202 series we're doing here.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: We have now done the process, we've done the tiers, we've gotten into some of the deeper draft room stuff.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: Next time, we're finally getting into the fun stuff.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_01: My guys and your guys, and the guys that I don't like.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna put uh put my name on some players that I uh I'm gonna plant my flag on, guys that I really don't want to leave most of my drafts without.
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_01: And a couple of those players that I really hope they end up on my uh Nemesis's team, you know.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, make sure you follow the show, uh, all the social medias.
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's at Rice on the Radio.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_01: You know, TikTok, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook if you're a boomer.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_01: Whatever, uh whatever you fill that void in your day with, whatever you scroll with here.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: Make sure you look up at Rice on the Radio.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_01: You know, might stop you from Doom Scroll for a little bit.
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, I uh I am Ian Rice.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_01: This has been episode 82 of Rice on the Radio.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, as always, spread good energy in the world, and make sure you tell somebody you love them.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_01: And I'll talk to you guys next time.
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: Peace.