Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Bankroll Management 101: How to Survive the Sportsbook

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Bankroll Management 101: How to Survive the Sportsbook · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:05
All right, hello, everybody. Welcome back to Targeting
0:07
Winners. The offseason continues.
0:10
We're trying to get through it. Today, we're going to be talking
0:12
a little bit about some bankroll management.
0:15
But first, Pete, how's the beach?
0:18
Beach is great, it is not on fire this week, Which?
0:21
Is not on fire, no mortar shells, no machine gunfire your.
0:25
No machine gunfire. The cartels have been put back,
0:29
put back to bed apparently, so all is good.
0:30
There's a Blackhawk flying around with an M50 just in case
0:34
there's any problems. But I think everything is under
0:36
control, Sound on the beach. We are safe and going forward.
0:41
Darren, how's the snowdrift? A.
0:46
Lot of it is melted. Supposed to get a little
0:48
freezing rain tonight, maybe another inch or two of snow, but
0:52
starting tomorrow mid 40s and steadily increasing.
0:57
We're supposed to actually have 65 on Tuesday.
1:00
I I don't even know what to do with myself that it would be in
1:02
the 60s in a few short days so. It sucks you can't make fun of
1:06
Darren anymore because of the weather.
1:07
That's. Well, you still can because you
1:09
know, 3 weeks later, first week of April, we'll get a freak
1:11
snowstorm and I'll be like 11 inches on the ground.
1:13
Well, we do have a cold fun coming in next week down here.
1:16
It's going to be 68 next Friday, so that'll be probably the 80.
1:21
One weather or something like. That All right, well, before we
1:27
get into the topic, let's acknowledge the passing of Lou
1:31
Holtz, long time Notre Dame coach.
1:34
Darren, you're a big golden Domer.
1:36
The floor is yours. Pretty funny guy in the
1:39
broadcast booth as well sometimes.
1:41
Oh yeah, I mean, we, we probably grew up on him and Mark May
1:46
arguing like weekly about college football, which was
1:48
probably some of the best college football television that
1:52
didn't involve actual players that we've had in quite some
1:55
time. But yeah, I mean, got Notre Dame
1:58
A championship, started off as a Kent State linebacker.
2:01
I did not know that. So he played linebacker.
2:05
Yeah, exactly. Like you take the least likely
2:07
guy on the planet to be a linebacker, but it's Kent State,
2:10
so do with that info what you will.
2:13
But yeah, man, depressing day. I see on Twitter lots of even
2:19
Notre Dame haters or like, you know, the reason I hated Notre
2:22
Dame was because Lou Holtz kept winning.
2:24
So a lot of mostly nice condolences for him.
2:28
But yeah, And I mean, I guess this is a betting show.
2:32
If you thought Notre Dame had motivation after last year to
2:34
have a good season, Yeah, maybe there's a little bit more there.
2:37
So. Could be with.
2:39
That info, what you will look at, yeah, sucks good, good.
2:43
Felt the same way like when Mike Leach passed away like.
2:45
Yeah, that, yeah, that was horrible.
2:47
Yeah, that was terrible as well, but.
2:49
But on the good side, Akron Zips, yay, they went, they got
2:55
their GPA up or whatever they had to do.
2:57
They were not. Multiple for that baby.
3:00
The Zips. So I LeBron is happy that's
3:04
where he's from, right? Isn't he from Akron?
3:06
So yeah, he's in. There, I didn't read.
3:10
Did you guys see like, did they actually improve their grades?
3:13
Because they said they got a they got a waiver.
3:15
So I don't know if that means, yeah, I don't.
3:18
We still don't study, but we don't want to listen to you and
3:21
play. Anymore the NCAA was like, man,
3:22
these guys are dumb asses. I never mind, just just go play.
3:25
Here, just play. Did the NCA be like you're a
3:28
Four win team anyway? It's not like you're going to
3:30
the postseason. So yeah, whatever.
3:33
We'll see. Well, good for them.
3:36
Yeah, a little bit on the comedy in light of recent world events.
3:40
I saw that college football Twitter is still bringing the
3:43
funny. They have Carson Beck joining
3:46
the military to overthrow Iran, and they have Lane Kiffin in
3:50
talks to become the next Ayatollah.
3:52
So that was pretty funny. Pretty funny meme there.
3:55
He's here. So he's not going to be coaching
3:59
at LSU this year. He's going to go be the new
4:00
Ayatollah over there. That's A to make sure nobody
4:02
hated him enough already. He's going to.
4:04
He's going to go over there. I did not see that.
4:08
I love that. That's great.
4:09
Never stop college football Twitter just never stop.
4:11
Just keep it coming. We always love we.
4:13
Needed a slide of Lane Kiffin dressed up like the Ayatollah.
4:16
We, I, I'll try to find it. I'll send it out to you guys,
4:21
but, well, let's just jump right into it.
4:23
This is bankroll management. A little bit of a reality check
4:27
for you guys. All those casinos on the Strip,
4:32
they're not built there because people win, OK?
4:34
The house always wins, not every day, not every night, but over
4:37
time they will always win. They have to build an edge.
4:40
They have unlimited money. So this episode is more to get
4:45
you to get your bankroll, how to management well and keep
4:49
everything going. That's what we're gonna talk
4:51
about today. But first in a couple weeks on
4:55
March 19th, it'll be our first our way too early national
5:00
championship preview. We're gonna be looking at some
5:02
bets, probably at the top 15 or so teams, so we can't stay away
5:08
from betting too long. So we got to look at some of
5:10
this stuff and we're going to see some of the odds.
5:12
We're going to look into that. That'll be March 19th at 7:00
5:16
PM. Any early thoughts on that
5:19
little sneak peek guys? First of all, I just want to say
5:22
the odds have been up since like the day after the national
5:24
championship ended, so it is not too early my friend.
5:27
We're actually like 2 months behind so.
5:32
And honestly, is it ever too early to talk about making bets?
5:35
Like you said, you think about this is the second show in a row
5:37
that like we're actually not giving out any bets.
5:39
Like I have itchy skin, like I'm shaking.
5:42
I, I I don't even. Know yeah I got any more than
5:46
bets. Yeah, but in two weeks there's
5:49
going to be at least one. Somebody in this studio has
5:52
already made a bet. Cool.
5:54
So I have really great Apollo. The teaser was it today, you
5:59
know. What I'll I'll just share a
6:01
quick story. The day when we got our last
6:04
foot of snow, the last Sunday in January, I had nothing to do
6:08
'cause, you know, state of emergency, they didn't want you
6:11
driving. Not that I was going to anyway.
6:14
I was sitting here, I opened up some apps to bet some hockey.
6:18
Bet MGM had 11 promos for me. Shows you how long it's been
6:22
since I've logged into Bet MGM. One of them was a 20% profit
6:27
boost, Any bet, any sport. So I made a bet.
6:33
Those profit boosts are great for futures by the way, but.
6:35
We're going to talk about those ARS.
6:38
And as it turns out, the day I made that bet is exactly 1 year
6:42
from the national championship game.
6:44
So. Very nice, and this one does not
6:46
involve the ghost of blue holes, right?
6:48
It does not because I don't want their, their number's too short
6:52
anyway. So I mean, I, I, I think when I
6:57
do those bets, I eliminate like the top three or four favorites.
7:00
No, I don't want it. Give me somebody with at least
7:02
1000 or better if I'm going to do that.
7:04
Agree. That's for two weeks.
7:05
From that. So Oh yeah, can't wait for that.
7:08
So let's just jump into some bankroll management here, the
7:10
first step there, and take it away.
7:12
All right, so the first thing you want to do if you're new to
7:14
betting or you're getting ready to start a a new sport or any
7:17
season for that matter, is how much do you want to start with?
7:22
Obviously there's no concrete answer for that.
7:24
It differs by person. All I'm going to say to that is
7:28
whatever you start with, please, please, please don't be that guy
7:32
that takes your mortgage or your rent or your power bill or your
7:36
car payment or whatever else you pay to help you live and support
7:42
your family. Do not take money from that.
7:45
You can start with as little as 100 bucks.
7:48
If you have more than that, that's even better.
7:51
But just do not take this from necessary things that are
7:56
required for living comfortably, OK?
7:59
Look at this as entertainment. You are not gonna hit the six
8:04
leg anytime touchdown score or parlay that you see once every
8:08
three months. Just don't do that.
8:12
So start with an amount that you're comfortable with,
8:15
something that if you lose it, you're not going to freak out.
8:19
It's going to make Saturday's way less stressful.
8:23
And again, this should be fun. This should be a form of
8:26
entertainment. Just just you dispose
8:31
dispensable income, disposable income, whatever you want to
8:33
call it, that's what you need to use whatever.
8:35
You can pay your bills, make sure you can still buy your kids
8:38
the GI Joe at the Kung Fu Grip. Make sure you can still do all
8:40
that and not have to donate blood or sell a kidney or
8:44
anything like that. That's always important.
8:46
We do like our kidneys and sorry.
8:50
Kidneys are important. There'll.
8:52
Be no college this fall. We don't want that either.
8:55
Right. Oh, hey, wasn't there a point on
8:58
the bottom there? Let's go into that too, because
9:00
that actually helps as well. Pete, you want to tackle that
9:03
one? Tom already?
9:03
It's hard to talk. Yeah, no, this is good.
9:05
I mean, So what I do largely first is I, I will figure out
9:08
the amount that I'm going to bet through the year and I will put
9:11
it into my account and I will leave it there, right.
9:12
And then that's my about to bet with.
9:14
But one of the ways to increase that amount is looking for ways
9:18
to add to the bankroll, right? Look for free money, right?
9:22
Free money are things like boosts, right?
9:24
Darren just talked about 1 he stumbled into, right, just
9:27
stepping into a one of his betting apps and saying, wow,
9:30
they're giving away 20%. I should probably do something
9:33
with that. Look for deposit bonuses, right?
9:35
Always look for maybe I maybe there's a new player in your
9:39
state, right, that's come in and they're offering a new deposit
9:42
bonus for opening up account with them.
9:45
Maybe that's a direction to go. So look for opportunities to
9:48
maybe start with a new app that's giving deposit bonuses or
9:51
if they're offering deposit bonuses, you know, if you, you
9:54
know, begin to bet more, do something else or whatever it
9:57
may be, look for odds boost. That's one thing we do every
10:00
week, right? We talk about the bets we're
10:02
going to make, but we look for ways to build in some odds
10:05
boosts or some ways to make those bets potentially more
10:08
profitable for us. So take advantage of those
10:11
opportunities that are there. It's like using coupons, right?
10:14
It's like taking advantage of opportunities that are there for
10:17
you. So always before you place your
10:20
even to the apps you use all the time, look what they're offering
10:24
because especially early in the season, they offer a lot of
10:27
those bonuses because they want to get people into the app and
10:30
and betting. So look for those bonuses, look
10:33
for those boosts and take advantage of them.
10:37
Every time there's a new app, there's always a deposit bonus
10:40
every. Single time or a new state.
10:43
Anybody listening or watching in Missouri back on December 1st
10:47
sports betting became legal for you guys.
10:49
So if you haven't signed up back then, yeah, now's a great time.
10:53
New users usually get insane bonuses.
10:55
The obviously the larger ones are more likely to give them to
10:57
you, but they're out there depending on how many apps have
11:00
been given the OK to to be legal in your state.
11:04
But yeah, like Pete said, all throughout the year, usually at
11:07
the beginning of the season, usually if there's some big
11:09
conference game, I think was it Tim?
11:11
Not last year, but I think the year before, one of them had a
11:15
profit boost for every Saturday night Big 10 game of the week.
11:18
So, I mean, if you're like Pete and you follow the Big 10 or
11:21
your favorite programs in the Big 10, hell, take advantage of
11:23
that. I.
11:23
Mean, yeah, it was the ABC game of the week or something, I
11:27
mean. They're not going to let you bet
11:28
a ton of money, but still, anytime you have a chance to add
11:31
to what you're going to in, you know, might as well take it.
11:35
Right. All right, next tip, figure out
11:38
how much you want to wager. Usually for beginners, probably
11:42
like 1 to 3% of your bankroll, you know start small consistent
11:45
wagers, you know long enough, you know for your edge to
11:50
matter. If you're you know for for their
11:53
edge to not matter, you can bet longer with it if you're just
11:56
beginning to starting out. Any thoughts Darren for the
12:00
wager bet? Yeah, like what you said, 1 to
12:03
3% is usually a a good starting point, especially if your
12:06
bankroll might be a little bit smaller to start.
12:08
The good thing about college football, the majority of the
12:11
games do take place on Saturday. We do know October and November
12:15
when Mack returns to weekday action, there are some games
12:19
Tuesday through Friday as well. The majority of them are on
12:22
Saturday. So you can alter that.
12:24
Yeah, you can probably go 2 or 3% because you're just not
12:26
betting on as many games. Say if you were a baseball
12:29
better where five out of seven days there's 15 games to bet on.
12:34
And it would just, you know, just drive me nuts.
12:36
You'd probably be putting like 5 bucks on each game or something
12:39
just to keep your bankroll alive for a week.
12:41
But yeah, well, like you said, one to three, even 1:00 to 5:00,
12:44
if your bankroll's a little larger to start with, is an
12:47
excellent starting point to to figure out a wager.
12:50
And and learn the lingo, right? Every week we talk about units,
12:54
right? Units are different for
12:56
everyone. So you should set what 1 unit is
12:59
for you, and that depends on your bankroll, how much you can
13:02
afford. And you should figure out what
13:03
that is before you start betting, right?
13:06
For one person, for a person, a unit might be 5 bucks.
13:09
For somebody else, a unit might be 50 or 100, right?
13:12
It depends what you can afford. And then you continue to keep
13:15
that unit consistent all the way through.
13:19
If one unit is 10 bucks for you, then every time you bet one
13:22
unit, it's 10 bucks. Do not deviate.
13:25
Stay with that all the way through.
13:28
Have the discipline. If you have that discipline,
13:30
it's the best way to keep yourself in the box.
13:33
Yeah, well, one good thing about the apps is like, no one's going
13:35
to look down their nose at you if they find out you're only
13:37
betting 10 bucks or something on a.
13:38
It's not like you're betting 10 bucks at a casino in front of a
13:41
bunch of people who just bet 5000 or something.
13:43
So, you know, you're only betting 10 bucks.
13:45
Only bet 10 bucks, who cares? The idea is simply to make your
13:48
your deposit whenever you're like.
13:52
I had a little bit of money leftover after the last football
13:55
season was over. I didn't have to add that much
13:57
to it. I, when I do, the goal is to
14:00
have that be the only time that I'm depositing.
14:02
I'm going to take that amount, spread it between probably 3
14:05
apps, but that's the only deposit you want to make.
14:09
You, you want to sit there in January and be able to be like,
14:11
wow, I didn't spend anything since like August on this.
14:14
And I'm actually getting a little bit back for for my
14:16
return. Nice.
14:19
All right, now this is where it gets into the nitty gritty of
14:22
it. This is pretty important,
14:25
Darren. This is one that you preach
14:27
night and day. I love this because the best
14:31
thing I got out of tracking my bets is I suck at so many
14:35
sports. That.
14:37
I don't bet basketball, pro or college.
14:40
I do not bet baseball. I rarely bet the NFL.
14:43
And why? Because after those seasons are
14:46
over, or in some case like baseball, like when May hits,
14:49
I'm just not succeeding in those sports like basketball.
14:54
I never know who's sitting from day-to-day baseball.
14:58
I don't know who's available in everybody's bullpen.
15:00
And I don't really care to donate the time to try and
15:03
figure that out. I mean, college football is, is
15:05
tough enough. But yeah, for me and, and the
15:09
reason we do this and Tim, you, you actually had a a resolution
15:13
a few shows back, you know, from tracking your futures bets.
15:17
I think it was you were like, you know, what was wasn't super
15:20
successful this year at Futures. I'm going to, I'm going to, you
15:22
know, go back on that a little bit, maybe not do as many.
15:26
And that's why we track them because if you see you, you have
15:29
a losing record in parlays, which we don't recommend or
15:33
totals or sides, just try and avoid those bets and tracking
15:37
them helps you do that. And I'm, I'm old.
15:40
Get off my lawn, man. I just use a, a Google sheet and
15:43
I plug in my bets. And then when the games are
15:46
over, I said with win or loss, do the unit calculation and go
15:48
on about my day. I highlight the winners in
15:51
green, the losers in red. I look at the Reds and I'm like,
15:54
OK, well, I should not bet the Mountain West ever again or, you
15:58
know, or whatever it is. But that's why we do it, to help
16:02
you spot trends, let you know what you're good at, and more
16:04
importantly for the sake of banker, what you're not good at
16:07
so you don't repeat those mistakes.
16:10
Yeah, just one example. I was, I just went back before
16:13
the show. I meant to do the whole year.
16:14
I only got down from the end of the year down to like week 7 or
16:17
6, and yeah, it was four and one in the Mac so far.
16:22
And I haven't done the last six, you know, weeks 6 through 1 or 0
16:26
or whatever. If that's the case, Pete and I
16:28
are going to take November off and you just run the show.
16:31
You're in, you know, back winners.
16:33
Maybe we're going to watch and follow your lead then.
16:36
Toledo was very good to me this year.
16:37
So I think I think three of the four wins are with Toledo.
16:40
So we'll see what goes on from there.
16:43
Any final thoughts on that, Peter?
16:46
No, no I agree. I do.
16:47
I track mine via XL so same approach Darren uses.
16:50
It's the reason why I largely bet totals.
16:52
I occasionally deviate and mostly every time I deviate I
16:57
get kicked right in the ass. I get kicked in the ass 'cause
17:00
I'm not good at it, right? I'm usually pretty good at
17:03
totals. That's my wheelhouse and I try
17:05
to stay in my way. I also also know based on
17:09
history, that generally 3 bets is about my limit.
17:14
If I stay with three, I can I can allocate the appropriate
17:19
amount of time to those three games to get a Clearview on them
17:23
and do pretty well. When I start to expand beyond
17:25
that, generally I get myself in trouble, right?
17:28
So I've learned that through tracking my bets.
17:30
So, so I can go back and look and say, hey, where did I do
17:32
well? Where did I do where I did?
17:34
Did I not do so well? If you don't track them, you
17:36
have no idea what you did over time and you keep making the
17:40
same mistakes over and over again.
17:41
So same as the as the as Darren and Tim, if you're not tracking
17:45
you, you just don't know where you're making mistakes.
17:51
Absolutely, this is another important one.
17:53
And you know you may like to bet on Hawaii but never chase.
17:59
Sometimes the best bet is not making one.
18:02
I see this a lot. I work part time on the weekends
18:05
at a card room down here and I'll see people they'll lose,
18:09
they'll play some of the bigger games and they'll lose, you
18:11
know, 1012 thousand playing the game and they'll bring their
18:14
last eight or 9000 over to these table games and try to win it,
18:19
win it back playing three card poker or even worse, one card
18:22
poker like war when we were kids.
18:24
They they have that there and they're playing for like 1002
18:27
thousand a time and it's like I feel like telling them go home.
18:32
We're open tomorrow. We're not closing anytime soon.
18:35
So you know we're we'll be open tomorrow.
18:37
But yeah, the big thing is never chase.
18:40
Any thoughts? We'll start with Darren.
18:43
Yeah, I agree with that completely.
18:45
And I'll use an example. 2024, I haven't been shy about it.
18:48
Not a good year for me betting college football.
18:50
But again, that initial deposit in May, you know, I started
18:55
hammering out some futures bets. That was all I had to make
18:57
because even though I might have been down, you know, 891012
19:01
units, whatever it was, I'm like, you know what, I'm not
19:03
doing a three unit play here. I'm not doing a 5 unit play here
19:06
because the rate I'm going that that's just not going to work
19:08
out. So just do not chase.
19:11
Nothing good ever comes of it. I mean, we love watching Hawaii.
19:15
They're very entertaining, but you don't want to be forced to
19:17
be betting on Hawaii all the time.
19:21
Except for me. Yeah, very glad to.
19:24
Be this year. Hawaii was was your Toledo.
19:28
Maybe go there next year instead of Mexico.
19:30
Oh, that. Would be.
19:31
Drug cartels in Hawaii, but you know.
19:34
Hawaii's very expensive, Mexico's not, so that's fine.
19:37
Tim, come on, if you're not waking up having a mimosa
19:40
surrounded by gunfire, are you even really living your best?
19:42
Life, I'm not living my best life.
19:44
I got to get down. That's another quick ad if
19:48
you're chasing and you're betting at night if you're out
19:50
with your friends. I know it's hard to do if you're
19:51
in this condition, but try not to bet when you're drunk.
19:56
Usually if you're chasing that late, you're out Saturday night
19:58
betting on Hawaii when you're like 5 Long Island ice teas deep
20:02
or something like this. If you went and wanted 5 when
20:05
you were sober, you're certainly not going to do any better if
20:07
you're. Put the phone down.
20:11
It's a natural tendency to want to chase when you start losing.
20:14
Put the phone down. I mean, I was, I was playfully
20:18
chasing during the playoffs during the Bulls, but I had
20:22
extra. I had a crappy year generally,
20:24
but I had extra money just sitting in my account.
20:26
So I was just playing with it. I wasn't like putting extra
20:29
money in and chasing with it. I just had money in my account
20:32
and I was continuing to lose, which just proves out the point.
20:35
You shouldn't chase, right? I didn't care if I lost that
20:37
money because it's already in there, but I would not have put
20:41
more money in there to chase. That would have been awesome,
20:43
right? So do not chase.
20:46
It is very easy to do, it's very compelling, it sounds good,
20:50
especially when something looks bright and shiny.
20:52
That big shiny glowing red button, Red and skimpy.
20:59
Yeah, it's very eraser button right now.
21:01
That's what it is. But and you always hear that one
21:04
story, the one there's like that one time you hear that one guy's
21:07
like, oh, I was down, but I put it all on, you know, Fresno
21:10
stayed at Hawaii. They cover it.
21:12
I got it all back. That's like one in like, you
21:14
know? What's that mean with the with
21:17
the two buttons bet Hawaii, don't bet Hawaii and the guys
21:21
like swiping the yeah, don't be don't get into that situation.
21:25
Don't be that guy or Presti don't bet Hawaii, but just yes.
21:29
And next Saturday will be here soon enough.
21:32
I mean, you'll get plenty of time to recoup.
21:35
Yes, or bet on what is our friend Ray bet on like Japanese
21:39
horse racing and stuff. Yeah, Korean baseball and.
21:44
Oh boy. All right, so Pete, why don't we
21:47
start to hear from this last slide here?
21:48
We're getting down towards the end.
21:49
We got some extra betting tips. Yeah, I'll take the first bullet
21:53
because it's something that anybody who's watched our show
21:55
for the past couple years knows this.
21:58
You know, if you look at my bets, you know, I don't
22:00
exclusively focus on one conference, but I do tend to
22:04
start with the Big 10 and go out from there, right?
22:07
It is the conference I know the best.
22:09
Obviously, I'm a Wolverine. I, I, so I tend to know my own
22:12
team the best. SO, you know, coming off of
22:14
that, I know, you know, my conference the best, I know our
22:17
rivals the best and all of that. I paid a close attention to the
22:21
Big 10. So, and just because I live
22:23
there as well, I hear just without even trying, you hear
22:26
all this stuff by being there. So I know the Big 10 the best,
22:29
right? So I tend to start there.
22:32
So largely you'll see through the year, maybe 2 out of my 3
22:35
bets might be out of out of the Big 10 because I know it the
22:38
best. That doesn't mean I only stay
22:39
there 'cause there's there's many weeks that go by where I
22:42
look and there's just nothing all that enticing in the Big 10
22:45
and I'll start looking elsewhere.
22:46
I do have my other favorites that come up each year.
22:49
So Ole Miss was one of them, Hawaii was one of them.
22:52
You know, I do kind of go and find teams that tend to be
22:56
working well for me for whatever reason it may be.
22:59
But I do tend to focus on one conference, maybe 2.
23:03
I might find another, you know, maybe not another big
23:06
conference, but maybe it's the Mac or somewhere else that is a
23:08
little enticing or, you know, there's just something
23:11
interesting about them being the Mac as well.
23:13
We're up where I am. There's a lot of those teams
23:14
around me. I hear a lot about that.
23:16
So that also entices me. But I do tend to favor or focus
23:20
on on the Big 10 as a star. So I take the first of all, who
23:24
wants to go next? Well, Speaking of Ole Miss, you
23:27
want to go back a little bit to tracking your bets with me, Ole
23:29
Miss? Ouch.
23:30
Did not catch them at all. After week three I was done.
23:34
I was like oh and three, no, no more.
23:36
Two years ago, we used to not even hear from Pete without him
23:39
making an Ole Miss over bet. But again, that's why I didn't
23:43
track your bets. Yeah, let me just piggyback on
23:46
to what Pete said because he's 1000% correct and very little to
23:49
add. But there's 138 teams this year,
23:52
guys. I mean, Sacramento State,
23:54
welcome to the Mac. North Dakota State, welcome to
23:57
the Mountain West. I mean, even the Big 10 with 18
24:00
teams, it's a hell of a lot easier to to get a get a good
24:04
read on 18 teams than it is 138. So he's 1000% correct.
24:09
Just have you start where you live.
24:11
You know, like Tim lives down in Florida.
24:14
He's a big Florida State guy. You know, he probably knows ACC
24:18
football better than Pete and I do.
24:20
So use that, use where you live to your advantage because
24:24
chances are your local game is probably half of the other
24:27
conference that you're watching. So it's it's a great way to to
24:29
start just focusing on one conference.
24:33
Second one favorites early underdogs late.
24:35
This goes especially if you see a team that has like a new
24:38
coach, new coordinators, you know, a lot of new players
24:41
coming in with the transfer portal, everything.
24:43
It usually for the first, you know, four or five weeks, it'll
24:46
take longer for them to, you know, to gel together, whatever.
24:51
But you have the favorites early.
24:53
That's usually, especially in the first couple of weeks, I
24:55
tend to cover even if you have those, you know, those 23 point
25:00
spreads that'll win like 56 to three or something, especially
25:02
those big college things. So I live, yeah, bet the
25:06
favorites earlier, I guess maybe a week 5 or 6, maybe start
25:11
giving the underdogs a little bit more consideration.
25:13
I don't know if you have any thoughts on that guys.
25:18
Yeah, I'll go first. So the reason I threw that one
25:20
there, and we talked about the last slide about not chasing.
25:24
There's going to be people that chase, there's going to be a lot
25:26
of Joe Public betters that chase.
25:28
They're going to be sitting there on a Saturday night.
25:31
They're going to be like, how am I supposed to get my money back?
25:34
And it's just human nature to pick a favorite.
25:37
So if you know those, if the college football lines come out
25:40
Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, you're breaking down your games
25:44
and you actually like a favorite, Say they're laying 6
25:46
1/2 points, go ahead and bet it then, because if that game is as
25:50
that game's kicking off, people are losing their money and
25:53
trying to get it back. Like I said, they're naturally
25:55
going to bet on the favorites. And even more so if they're home
25:58
favorites that just, you know, everybody's like, wow, I've lost
26:00
my money. I can't count on this 6 1/2
26:02
point underdog. So yes, if you like a favorite,
26:05
bet it early. Obviously the flip side to that
26:07
is when all these people are betting on the favorites on game
26:10
day, that just means the spread's going up, which means
26:13
if you like an underdog and you wait till right before kickoff,
26:16
you're going to get more points. You know that 6 1/2 point dog,
26:19
you can get 7 1/2 by kickoff. So that's just like a a regular
26:24
fading the public kind of kind of tip in there.
26:28
Just the the public is going to bet favourites more than they
26:32
bet underdogs. So depending on what side you're
26:35
on, either bet it Tuesday or wait till Saturday 10 minutes
26:39
before kickoff. All right, the QB is easily the
26:45
most important position. Know the backup, Peter?
26:51
Yeah, I mean, I think that's pretty evident to most people,
26:53
but I'm not sure most people bother to look to see who the
26:56
backup is, right? And at the end of the day, you
26:58
know that guy, the QB goes down the first quarter and you could
27:02
your bet could be out the window pretty quickly, right?
27:04
Especially if the backup is a big step down.
27:07
And for many of these teams, it can be a big step down.
27:10
This is very possible, even more so now in this era of the
27:15
portal, right where you've got teams that might have a pretty
27:18
decent starting quarterback and behind them, behind them, they
27:21
have a a bucket of balls, right? There's not much behind them at
27:24
times. And so that drop off can be
27:26
rather significant. It's important that you know
27:29
that, right? And especially if there's any
27:31
type of you know, you can't, you know you can't predict injuries,
27:35
but you know, if they are, if their team is playing in some
27:39
type of conditions that could potentially with the
27:42
predictability of an injury increases, really tough defense,
27:46
weather, you know, things that were an injury, the probability
27:49
of an injury increases. Then it's even more important to
27:52
understand who that backup is and in fact that factor that
27:56
into your betting. But it is really important
27:59
because obviously we know quarterbacks are extremely
28:01
important and without them, you know, without your starter, you
28:04
know, it can be pretty catastrophic, especially for
28:06
certain teams that really rely on their quarterbacks.
28:08
If you just step back and look at some of the teams, you know,
28:11
across college football, some of these teams are heavily reliant
28:15
on their starting quarterback. Like that is their team, right?
28:18
If you're going to bet on that team, you know, you, you really
28:21
need to, you know, keep keep that in mind, 'cause you are
28:24
betting on that quarterback as well, not just that team.
28:27
So keep that in mind and know who the backup is.
28:31
Yeah, always factor that into your betting.
28:33
Yeah. So do you know the name or just
28:34
the number? Well, and for Tim, the number's?
28:38
Fine, I couldn't tell you Florida State.
28:39
I know 14's the starter and I think 9's the backup.
28:42
I don't I don't know even know their name.
28:44
Soon as irrelevant anyway so. He's from Auburn 9 is Kevin
28:49
something so but he played in the Stanford game last year so.
28:52
They're they're both going to get your coach fired this year.
28:54
It doesn't matter. We'll see wet.
28:56
We'll we'll have Mark back on. We'll we'll discuss that later,
28:59
but Darren, any thoughts on the other QB?
29:03
No, Pete's correct. And with the portal now closed
29:06
and spring practices kind of really kicking into high gear
29:08
this week, you're going to find articles online, you know, the
29:12
most intriguing quarterback battles this year.
29:15
That usually means those rosters have two guys who are capable of
29:17
leading their squad. So kind of get familiar with
29:20
those teams, know who those two guys are and know that if you
29:23
bet them, they can't transfer now because there's no second
29:26
window in April. So you can use like, oh, these
29:29
guys have two capable quarterbacks.
29:31
So little asterisk next to this team.
29:34
All right, If whoever wins the job goes down, I've got
29:36
confidence in the backup. So that that's a good place to
29:39
start to maybe get a a list of 10 to 12 teams that do have two
29:42
people who are capable of running the offense.
29:45
So. All right, give the Group of 6
29:49
some attention here. I guess I got a lot of teams,
29:52
the odds makers, they concentrate on the SEC, the Big
29:54
10, that's where a lot of the money's gonna be gone.
29:56
So maybe pay attention to the group of 6 here.
30:00
Peter, what's your favorite group of 6?
30:02
Yeah, well, it's not just where the odds makers are.
30:04
It's where the Hawaii, obviously Hawaii, but it's where the it's
30:07
where the money's going too, right?
30:09
I mean, at the end of the day, once the odds makers set the
30:11
odds, it's, it's where the money's going that drives them,
30:14
right? And so quite often, especially
30:16
those that are not like we are, obviously we are, this is a
30:19
betting podcast. A lot of the people that watch
30:21
it obviously are betters, right? And so we're, we're into the
30:24
weeds way more than the average bettor is, right?
30:27
The average bettor is out there betting on names.
30:29
They're betting on maybe where they went, which are largely
30:32
bigger schools. So a lot of the money is chasing
30:34
the bigger names around, the bigger conferences around,
30:38
right? And so you can find some gems
30:40
out there, some opportunities out there in this group of 6
30:43
because there's not as much money being bet on these games.
30:45
So you can find opportunities in these games.
30:48
I find total opportunities in these games all the time.
30:52
So when I do deviate away from the Big 10, you will see me
30:56
picking those games quite often where when you see me dive down
30:59
into the group of 6, right, and you see me bet on a Hawaii or
31:02
somebody like that. It is quite often that I, I'm
31:05
seeing an opportunity there where there's a total that
31:08
intrigues me because I think it's been overlooked a bit or I,
31:11
or I think just that the, the money hasn't gone there.
31:13
And it's just, you know, that that number just doesn't seem to
31:16
make sense based on, you know, what the actual play in the
31:20
field is going to be. And so I think that's where some
31:22
of those opportunities lie more so then you know, where, you
31:26
know, obviously the oddsmakers are focusing, the money is
31:29
focusing where everybody, all the talking heads on TV are
31:32
focusing, which is where the money is being driven to cause
31:35
the talking heads on TV are talking about these games,
31:37
right. If you get out of all that, you
31:39
know cloud, you can find some, you know, hanging fruit out
31:43
there with opportunities. And so at least look around, see
31:46
what's out there 'cause some of those kind of low hanging fruit
31:49
opportunities are out there, especially early in the season.
31:52
I was gonna say it earlier, but you'll see me early in the
31:55
season. Some of those opportunities are
31:57
there. You'll see me betting under.
31:59
It's quite often early first couple of weeks because two
32:04
reasons, number one, you know, some of these group of six
32:07
things or the games are being overlooked and #2 defenses get
32:11
up at speed generally faster than offenses.
32:14
Hence unders come into play. You'll you'll hear me talking
32:16
about that week, zero week one, Week 2.
32:20
After that it starts to even out.
32:21
But you'll see me, you'll hear me talking about that quite a
32:24
bit early this evening, Aaron. Yeah, again, Pete's 100%
32:30
correct. And Tim, you touched on with the
32:32
Power 4 conferences, the reason I've got this tip in here,
32:35
there's information everywhere on those Power Four teams.
32:39
I mean, they all have 20 to 30 beat writers.
32:42
It's very easy to to to get information to get injury
32:45
reports on some of these larger conferences, but you don't see
32:49
that with the group of 6. And, and one of the reasons I
32:52
like betting college as opposed to NFLNFL lines are super, super
32:56
sharp. There is so much information out
32:58
there on all 32 teams. If you think you found an edge,
33:01
I guarantee you the sports book had that edge four hours ago and
33:05
have already factored it into the line.
33:07
So that edge you think you have, you don't have.
33:10
And again with NFL, there's 32 teams, we touched on it.
33:13
There's 138 in college football this year.
33:16
And let me just say this, the sports book, the odd makers,
33:19
some of the smartest mfers on the planet.
33:22
All right, They, they know what they're doing and they get paid
33:25
accordingly. But it is still difficult to
33:28
have solids, solid lines for 138 teams.
33:32
And and Pete had mentioned hitting some of those smaller
33:35
schools early. He is 1000% correct.
33:38
It's going to take a few weeks even for the sports books to to
33:42
get their their power ratings and, you know, their thoughts on
33:45
those smaller teams in order. So it's definitely a good time
33:51
to attack, maybe do an extra game or two early, you know,
33:54
follow some beat writers on Twitter.
33:56
Hell, if you live in Fort Collins, you probably know more
34:00
about Colorado State than any of us, you know, use that to your
34:03
advantage. But yeah, it's basically an
34:05
information thing and. Yeah, you.
34:08
Can't get the information on Colorado State, but I can find
34:10
sun on Ohio State without too much drop itself.
34:14
For sure. I mean, stepping off that what
34:15
Darren said information, right? I mean, you'll see our preview
34:18
shows for you know, like the Sunbelt and you know, some of
34:21
these other smaller conferences. If you want to do something fun,
34:24
try to do it yourself. Try to go out there and do your
34:27
own preview of a Sunbelt. You know, the ACC, some of the
34:31
that may be about the ACS, but some of these other smaller
34:33
conferences and especially the teams that aren't feel good in
34:36
those conferences, try to find information on them, try to
34:39
actually figure out what they're going to do this season.
34:41
There's so little information out there.
34:44
It is really difficult to do that.
34:46
And that's what you're fighting all season long is there's just
34:49
not information on some of these teams.
34:50
It's just hard to get it, which you can take to your advantage
34:54
sometimes with some of these games.
34:59
And schedules matter. And I mean, yeah, for me, yeah.
35:05
I wish I did some more research. I found out how many times teams
35:07
are playing on the road on a Friday night or a Thursday
35:10
night. I stay away from those.
35:12
Darren, any thoughts with the schedules?
35:14
Yeah, I just want to say it just says schedules matter and
35:16
everybody's looking like, well, yeah, no dud Jackass.
35:19
Well, we ran out of room on the graphics, so I had to narrow it
35:21
down to what I was saying. But basically what I meant by
35:25
that is realignment has really effed up some of these
35:28
conferences. I mean, you've got Oregon,
35:31
USCUCLA and the Big 10, You've got Cal and Stanford in the
35:36
Atlantic Coast Conference. You know, there's teams that are
35:40
going to be flying across the country multiple times this year
35:43
and as the season goes on that that's kind of like some wear
35:46
and tear. So I, I, I just had a, a example
35:50
here. Let's just take Stanford, for
35:53
example, their schedule, they're going to Duke, they're going to
35:58
Wake Forest, they're going to Notre Dame, they're going to
36:01
Louisville and they're going to Virginia Tech.
36:05
Again, over under on frequent flyer miles, take the over on
36:09
Stanford. But you know, and look at the
36:11
start times. If any of those games are like a
36:14
noon start time, those Stanford guys are going to be thinking
36:17
that it's 9:00 in the morning. I mean, the body clock is a real
36:19
thing. Tim and I always joke about
36:22
fading teams going across at least two time zones.
36:26
It's no joke. We've made some good money
36:28
betting on those, those teams that have to do the travel
36:31
because they're just not used to it.
36:32
So pay attention to those schedules.
36:35
If if you see a team travelling way out there, hey, did they
36:38
just go back out there two weeks ago?
36:40
Yeah, they're probably a little exhausted.
36:42
So you, you look at those schedules, not just, oh, that's
36:45
a good team. You know, look at how far some
36:47
of these teams do have to travel because it will make a
36:49
difference, especially later in the season.
36:51
Yeah, I mean, that was a lot of my Hawaii play this year, right?
36:53
If the team's flying to Hawaii, you know, that doesn't in a self
36:56
meaning or anything other than the fact that they're
36:58
travelling. But when Hawaii has a decent
37:00
team and a good quarterback and now a team is travelling out
37:04
there, that's problem, right? That that is a snake pit you're
37:07
flying into with a tired team crossing a bunch of time zones
37:11
trying to deal with a pretty good team in their home
37:14
environment. That's problem, right?
37:15
So look for those opportunities, right.
37:17
I don't know how many times we talked last year about, heck,
37:20
this team is going two time zones to face a pretty good team
37:24
in a really tough stadium. That's a problem, right?
37:27
I don't care how good that team is, that's flying out there.
37:30
That is a disadvantage for them. And we saw that play itself out
37:35
so many times last year when a good team crosses a couple time
37:38
zones and goes to a tough stadium and all of a sudden
37:41
their backs against the wall. And that happened many times
37:44
last year. So that those are opportunities
37:46
to look for because they do present themselves quite often.
37:50
And Hawaii is a great example. I mean, you're a 20 year old kid
37:52
playing football, you're going to Hawaii.
37:55
Are you really thinking like with the business trip mindset?
37:59
Not I like Pete said, factor in a good team on top of that.
38:04
Bro just give me a pina colada and a pineapple shell and give
38:07
me the hell back to school. Chicks and hula skirts.
38:09
There you go. I'll take the hour and we'll go
38:11
home. I'm good.
38:12
So all right, now we're going to do a little bit of review, but
38:19
first we're going to talk about in the middle there, evaluate
38:21
your bankroll every 30 days or so.
38:24
This helped me out last year getting away from Ole Miss.
38:27
Pete, Darren, you want to expand on that a little bit?
38:31
I'll touch it real quick because Darren said something really
38:33
important earlier, right? And his goal is the same as
38:35
mine. Deposit once, right, deposit
38:39
once the beginning of the year. And the goal is to maintain that
38:43
all the way through. Now, of course, actually the
38:45
goal is to build it and end up with a bunch of money at the end
38:48
of the year. If you can't, fantastic, right?
38:50
But if you can't do that, right, keep an eye on your on your
38:54
bankroll, make sure that you're betting within that bankroll.
38:57
So you know, if you have a certain amount, right, whatever
38:59
the amount is you put in and you want to make it last all the way
39:02
through the year. The way I look at it, if I lose
39:04
every single bet, but I want to bet all year long, how many
39:07
units could I bet every week and lose every single bet?
39:11
You know, And if it's for entertainment for me, great,
39:13
then I know how much I can bet for great.
39:15
I can bet 3 units a week, right? Then I bet 3 units a week.
39:18
If I lose every single bet that I end up with 0 on my account at
39:21
the end of the year. But you know what I had fun.
39:23
I bet 3 units a week. I enjoyed myself all year and it
39:26
was good and I never had a deposit again.
39:29
But keep an eye on your bankroll.
39:30
Don't chase all the things we said allow you to do this, but
39:34
keep an eye on that bankroll. Take advantage of the bonuses,
39:38
take advantage of the boost because these will allow you to
39:41
build that bankroll right, Especially, you know, boosts and
39:45
bonuses. If you feel really good about a
39:47
bet you're making, then put that on the boost, put that on a
39:49
bone. If they take advantage of that
39:51
boost with that, with that game, because that'll allow you to
39:53
take a little advantage of popping up your your bankroll a
39:56
little bit, which gives you an opportunity to do a little more
39:59
if you want to going forward. So those are my thoughts,
40:03
Darren. Isn't it?
40:04
He summed it up perfectly. I mean, it's a great way to do
40:07
it. I mean, especially college
40:08
football season. You know what, when Week 0 rolls
40:11
around, after Week 3 is done, wake up Sunday morning and see
40:15
where you're at. Are you ahead?
40:16
Are you behind? Pete also touched on keeping
40:19
that unit amount the same. I agree with that totally.
40:24
We do that. But maybe you lost a little more
40:27
in those first four weeks that you thought.
40:28
Say you were betting 4% of your bankroll.
40:30
Maybe for a week, drop it down to 3%.
40:32
Don't increase it to try and get it back.
40:34
Maybe you just feel like whatever you're looking at, it's
40:37
just not the stats that you feel like you should be looking at.
40:41
We're not against toning it back a percent for like a week or so,
40:44
but then you're not going to lose every single week.
40:47
But again, don't, don't chase and feel like, oh, this is the
40:50
week I'm getting it back because I guarantee you that's a week
40:52
you will not get it back. So stay steady with your units
40:55
like pizza, maybe back a touch for one week if that bankroll is
40:59
is taking a beating after the first four weeks.
41:01
But yes, every 30 days, give it a look.
41:04
See what kind of bet you're winning.
41:05
More importantly, see what kind of bet you're losing and then
41:08
avoid those as you start that second 30 days.
41:10
Right. Evaluate every 30 days.
41:13
Look for ways to get free money and if you need help, get it.
41:18
You didn't put watch our show in there 'cause I mean, I.
41:20
Feel like our show, you know, always be targeting winners?
41:26
Kind of like the name implies, you know, kind of what we're
41:30
trying to do. Here, right?
41:31
So track everything, stay disciplined.
41:34
Any final thoughts guys? Yeah, figure out which one of
41:37
the three of us is having a good year and take those bets.
41:39
Yeah, I usually have. So that would be Pete.
41:42
So that would be and. That was Darren.
41:44
That was Darren this year. Yeah, Pete was the year before
41:47
Pete was crushing it in 2024. All right, guys.
41:54
Tim, I guess it means it's your year, so don't listen to Pete.
41:56
It's your time. Yeah, until November.
42:00
Well, it came religiously. Yeah.
42:02
Especially when Maxim rolls appeals.
42:05
Oh yeah, well, we got to love the Mac.
42:07
All right, so a reminder on the 19th, we have our national
42:11
championship show coming up. That'll be at 7:00 PM on
42:14
YouTube. Thank you for watching.
42:17
Please like and subscribe and all that stuff.
42:20
You really appreciate it. Hope you enjoyed listening.
42:23
Thank you for listening and we'll catch you on the 19th.