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Best Bets NFL Week 17 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: is our week seventeen, Thursday and fl episode. This is
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We make our moneyline Underdog
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Round Robin, We give out our Fox Little Bet, our
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Big Balls bet of the week, and we narrow down
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: our picks for the free to play Favorites Podcast one
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest because, as
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: our old pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's a
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: sea of money out there. Because there's a sea of
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: money out there, you want to follow along with our
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: official bets. You can check them out on the contest
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: website Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: in before kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the award winning Action app, you can also track all
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: the bets. Simon and I lock in following two accounts,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the Phase five and The Favorites Podcast. Now let's bring
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, my compatre, my BFF,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: professional better, Simon Hunter, Hello.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Solomon, how you doing, brother?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: I'm good. Listen, Simon. As you know, I've been away
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: with my family for a few days and where we
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: are there happens to be a casino. So last night
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I had my first casino experience with both of my children,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: blackjack poker. The younger son, sitting at the blackjack table,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: was feeling it, figuring it out. We had practiced before
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: we went away. We were practicing poker, playing blackjack at home,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: you know, decker cars, whatever, and he was getting it.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: And then at one point he had nineteen he started
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to tap his fingers on the table like he was
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: going to hit. And you've never seen a group of
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: adult men and the dealer come to the aid of
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: a teenage boy quicker. It was just proved to me
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: that it takes a village to raise children these days,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: because everyone started screaming no, no, no. Even the dealer
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: was like, no, no, I will not let you do that.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Even though the eye in the sky saw that he
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: had already done it, he would not do it. Meanwhile,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: my older son playing poker, loves poker. He's a total
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: game guy. At one point, I'm sitting at the blackjack
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: table for a while and he comes up to me
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: and he goes, Dad, I'm going to finish this run.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I just need a couple more bucks, So of course
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I give it to him. And when it's all over,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: my wife says to my son, so did you win
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: or lose? He goes, I lost about ten bucks, and
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: she looks at him. She goes, well, I know I
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: gave you fifty. I know Dad gave you fifty. He goes, oh, no, no,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I just meant I lost ten bucks of my own money,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: raising him right.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing like that first real experience of galin where
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: even if you win, you're gonna give back right, no
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: matter what that first time, no one knows when to
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: walk away, especially your first time.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Right now, And it was thrilling and exhilarating. Was fun
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: to see them in that environment is sort of try
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: to do the calculations and see the experience as a reminder.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: The Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. I will remind everybody my kids
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  Speaker 1: of age and we are in a place where they
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off terms.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. All right, simon, We're getting to it
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: week seventeen. We got two more weeks left in the
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: regular season. Opportunities all over the board. It's time four
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: sharp calls.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: Somebody said, maybe want.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: To do man.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: We'll start off with what Chad wants to hear, which
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: is all the pros they love, the Saints who Chad
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: loves and I don't know.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: I think I'm dugged in.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: I'll let you pick it to do whatever you want
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: with it this week, Chad, but I'm gonna stand by.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: I think the public is right here, the Bucks of
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: the right side.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: The Saints are frauds and this is just not a
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: game I would trust them with. If this was three
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: and a half four, I could come around the Saints.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: But at three two and a half, I just think
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: I just think it's the Bucks. But yeah, a lot
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: of a lot of pushback on that one, Like an
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: absurd amount of people called me and said, I'm making
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: a mistake.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: But so listen, listen, we're going to get into all
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: these games, including that one. I will tell you when
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: I listed the five that I thought we'd end up
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: with that were sort of trending to my favorite, the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Saints were on the outside looking.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: At That's good. That makes you feel good because.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I still like them, but they didn't make me.
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: I might be wrong, but I just I just have
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: zero faith in Derek Carr and you know, the whole team,
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: just everything about it. It's the first outdoor game and like,
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: I dig it three months, all of it. But yeah,
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: we'll talk about it. You know again, we talked about
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: we liked. I can't believe the number moves so much.
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: We both like the Dolphins. It's gone from four to three,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: and a lot of books brutal, Like was hoping that
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: I was going to keep climbing. They smashed that one.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: A game I am worried about, which I did love
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: was the Giants. And you know, I do have some
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: smart groups on my side, but there's also some smart
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: groups on the other side that like the Rams, and
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: I think it's all of us fighting over at the six.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: So I know some guys who love the Giants at
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: six and a half. Six, and you know, this number
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: got to four, four and a half. And I know
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: another group that came in really heavy on the Rams.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: And now I'm seeing it back some books this morning,
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: five and a half at some off shore books at six.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: So that's definitely interesting.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: One where everyone I talked to you for the most
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: part like the Giants, and I talked to maybe two
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: guys who really liked that Rams spot, especially under six.
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: It would just be crazy if this did land six.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: The books would get absolutely crushed. If this does some
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: land on six. But that's another one we were gonna
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: talk about, because even under six I'm still not too weird.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: I feel like five and a half is still a.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: Pretty good number for that Giants game. Another game we
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: didn't talk a crazy amount about, but you know, made
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: sense to me when I talked to people that they
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: were on the same side as us. I think we
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: did talk about that. We like the Colts, talked to
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: plenty of pros. I liked the Colts. It's it wasn't
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: as much I thought I was gonna be. I thought
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: this was gonna be a huge smash spot, and it
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: kind of seems like teams are a little weird. I mean,
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: guys are a little weary of fading this Raiders team,
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: this defense. But I just think the Colts are coaching
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: all of it offensively. They're just they just put Minshew
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: and their players in the right spot. So that's another game.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: I'm excited for us to break down again. We talked
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: a little bit about, but again we missed the number Houston,
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: like we were probably gonna put that in our contest.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: It was three, three and a half. Now I'm seeing
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: five and a half.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: You know, not that this was so much a sharp call,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: but it was, like, you know, talk to a couple
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: of people it's like you grabbing Houston right just in
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: case CJ comes back, and you know whatever.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: We did that Tuesday. So that was what eight am,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: nine am.
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: I think by one o'clock here in Hawaii, the CJ
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: kind of news already leaked that he was on me
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: back practicing.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: It kind of got in zero expectations we were going
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to have that, Like that number just wasn't going to
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: work for us. I knew we were never going to
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: get it.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: Really, I was hoping if it was still three and
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: a half, that had been great, like that had have
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: been a nice spot at the back Houston.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: That was a nice number to back them.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: But yeah, the biggest, the biggest two games that I
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: had disagreement with were the Lions. I know a bunch
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: of pros. I love the Lions. I like the Cowboys.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: And I know a bunch of pros I like the Saints.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: I like the Bucks. So yeah, an interesting week of
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: you know, some split split people. But I can tell
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: you from most guys I talked to most guys like
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: Chalk this week, Like, I know a bunch of people
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: are I know a bunch of really smart groups betting
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: the Browns. I know a bunch of really smart groups
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: who do like the Raves. I know a bunch of
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: really smart groups that do really like the Seattle Seahawks.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: So it's it's a interesting week of Usually guys I
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: talked to like the dogs or they stay away, and
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: some guys are biting on these favorites because they think
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: a lot of these dogs are overvalued.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: Excited to dive into this one. But I'm also like,
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: I got three or four in my mind for us.
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: I don't have a fifth yet for our five, So
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: interesting to see your picks are.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited to see if they match. Because there's
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: a couple couple of favorites in here on my list
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: and including one I added and we talked a little
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: bit about the other day that I think is going
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: to make for a good conversation. As a reminder, catch
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network you tube page.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: We will give you a foxhole of big balls bet
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: of the week. Also a reminder, another live show, folks,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: we're running it back The Favorites Podcast and favorites. Watch
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Party Sunday, January fourteenth, wild Card Weekend, Me Simon, free entry,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: free drinks, free sweat, and the bets for the entire
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: weekend with me and Simon during the games and then
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: we go live at seven point thirty Shepherd and the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Knucklehead Hoboken, New Jersey RSVP in the description for YouTube
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and the podcast. Also the day before Wildcard watch Party
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: with Raybound was Stocking Sean Kern or Me, Simon, the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: whole Gang four pm. Shepherd and the Knucklehead January thirteenth,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: RSVP for that as well. We want to see everybody there.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: We had so much fun at the last event. We
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: loved hanging with everybody. It's going to be great.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: If you want to guarantee, though that I'll be there,
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: make sure you go to the Sunday show. It's guarantee
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: I'll be in Sunday. It's a little up in the
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: airp I'll be there on Saturday, but guaranteed you have
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: my word, people, I will be there Sunday.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: It's really honestly a good time all.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Right, Detroit at Dallas. This game's moved five and a half.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: You pegged it on Tuesday I kind of love it.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's a great spot for the Cowboys and
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: like there has to be some kind of hang over
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: for the Lions right now. And then I was reminded
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: of a stat from Evan Abrams Dak against the spread
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: as a fave six or more so now it's down
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: to five and a half, but there was at six
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: right before the show. Yeah, twelve and one seventy percent
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: against the spread. They just need this game. They need
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: this game more. And the only thing that worries me
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: is Toron Smith still being questionable, did not practice on Wednesday.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I think he's the reason they lost that game against Miami,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: just too many bad sacks and the exact time when
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: they couldn't afford a bad sack. But I also think
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy might be coaching for his job.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Interesting.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought it was honestly interesting that I talked
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: to pros who liked the Lions. I just I thought
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: everyone would be on Dallas or you just stay away,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: and like, you know, the number made sense to me.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: It should be six, six and a half.
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: That made sense to me, and apparently people smarter than
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: me disagreed, and they came in pretty heavy on this
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: line's team, and they've moved this number, and the public
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: is well, I said they would be right. They're pissed
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: off at Dallas. They're not sold on Dallas at all.
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: You know, this is a team that two huge. You
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: know everyone's watching kind of games. They've laid eggs, right,
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: They've just laid eggs against good teams. So I'm not
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: shocked to see the public split on this one. I
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: am shocked to see the professionals. So I'm with Chad
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: all hold my ground. I like Dallas, And you know,
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: this year has been really hard with this contest where
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: we've liked these games, like these Saturday games, Like we
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: both loved the Chargers last week, we couldn't play it.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: That's tough. Like a normal contest, we're able to play
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: those ones. So this year, yeah, it's been it's been
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: really tough where you're losing a couple of games, and
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: like this one, I would probably get in a five
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: and a half, right, Like, it feels like we'd probably
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: force this one in. This is kind of a nice number,
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: So yeah, we won't have this in the contest.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: But I like this game. I think Chad licks as well,
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: So don't share it off by the line movement.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I know it couldn't be one of our final five,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: but I want to make sure we talked about it
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: because it is such a marquee game and was getting
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: so much attention. Another marquee game, as you mentioned, Miami
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore. And this is a bummer, right because this
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: number has bounced around. We saw it when we talked
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday at four, it got down to
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: three and a half, It got down to three.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Should have made it. Simon says, I was going through
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: but I didn't.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I know, I know Jaln Waddle likely not playing. I
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: think it really is about the number here, Like when
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: it's a three, Lamar is a favorite of three or
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: less or an underdog twenty one and six against the spread.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh as a favorite of three or less or an
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: underdog eighty three, sixty and seven against the spread. That's
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent and fifty eight percent, respectively. As favorites
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: of three or more. Lamar forty three and a half
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: percent against the spread, Harbaugh forty seven point six percent
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: against the spread. So like, if this gets back to
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: three and a half, you take the Dolphins at three,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: maybe you take the Ravens or you pass.
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just saying, if it's two and a
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: half in our contest, like I honestly would be tempted
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: to take the Ravens at that.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Yes, I don't think. I don't think that's going to be.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: The option we'll see, but I would hate it just
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: because I'm heavily invested at this point in Miami at
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: four three and a half. It's just it felt like
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the right spot to take them. But like Chad's saying
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: right now, it's like it's all about the number. Like
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: this feels like a games can come down to a
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: field goal. One team's kicker is terrible and not trustworthy,
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: the other one is maybe the greatest kicker in NFL
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: history and Tucker. So yeah, it's just when you when
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: you get lower than a three, my value.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Is going to definitely shift to the Ravens.
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it's it's such a letdown spot for this
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: Ravens team, even though I know everything that's on, I'm like,
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: did they win this? They pretty much guaranteed the one seed, right,
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: I think I saw something like that Lamar not the.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: I guaranteed he's gonna get MVP.
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: I still think Josh Allen is an outside shot, but
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: it's like it's hard not to give it to Lamar
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: what he's done this season.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: You know, off season, this all factor is in.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: This guy had a really tumultuous offseason dealing with the contract.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: Then he came in, had to learn a new offense. Right,
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: this is a totally different new scheme and it doesn't
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: seemed that different because they're running the ball so much,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: but it is different. Yeah, my guy, evn't The Ravens
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: clinched the Nirmer one seed and they get the first
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: round by if they win this, So it's like, doesn't
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: get I mean, this is what the biggest game of
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: Lamar's career, so that that's gotta that's gotta be a
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: real pressure on him. He's not not human, right, Like
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: we've seen Lamar struggle with pressure before.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: This is as high as it gets. Miami.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: On the flip side, I don't know if you've watched
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: any of this hard Knocks Chad, but like, I mean,
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: Mike McDaniels might be the most likable dude, and I
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: already loved him, but it's like he is just so
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: good at breaking the tension, Like the everything so serious
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: in life when it really shouldn't be. Like everything we
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: do is ninety nine percent of all we do is
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: just made up bullshit.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: And I love that by Mking.
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: Mike Daalelds resees through that like that whole I don't
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: know if you saw the clip of who is a
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: Dan Marino is getting like love before the game and
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: he's like talking shit to him. He's getting this word
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: like we're gonna, we're gonna come in for your records.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: We're gonna break all your records. Dan, like just talking
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: shit to him, but like in a lovey joky way
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: the two in Tyreek, where like they're all standing there together.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: It's just like I love that so much. So with Miami,
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: they're just this team and a spot of I like
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: them to be able to be to the back door
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: this whole game, right. They have the offensive weapons. I
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: know historically they struggled in this position against Winny teams
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: on the road, but we talked about it. I mean,
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: I've been told us like in his career, he's two
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: and zero against the Ravens. I know they're a little
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: bit of fluky games, but he's played well against them
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: and he hasn't been even on the road. He played
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: in Baltimore. He was able to play well in that stadium.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's a big deal. He's been there, done that,
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: so I know it's a long way wondered way of
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: saying you can still get three and a half.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: We like it.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: Just don't be really pissed at me and Chad Sunday morning.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: If there's a minus two and a half on the Ravens,
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: it's just we're playing the value the number. We think
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: it should be three. It's sitting on three now, So
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: no play for me if it's three. But if it's
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: three and a half Miami, if it's two and a
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: half Ravens.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: It was Dolphin super fan producer Tito who reminded us
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: that two was two and zero against Lamar. I think
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: the only thing Tito knows is South Florida sports number one,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: number two. Ninety nine percent of what we talk about
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: being bullshit, I think is a low estimate on the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: amount of stuff that we talk about. Bet is bullshit.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: We talk about sports betting on our internet machines. That's
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: what we do, Simon. That is all bullshit.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: Brother, important work, important work work.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: We touch people every day, their lives a little bit better.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Josh Allen, we touched on this game a
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: little bit. A lot of touch talk, yeah, a lot
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: of touchdown New England at Buffalo Buffalo minus thirteen. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: just feel like Buffalo is going to destroy. I know
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: it in my bones, and I see it in the stats.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Like this Buffalo defense has been getting better right Like
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: they needed time when they lost Milano, they lost your
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Davius White, they lost Daikwon Jones. They needed players to
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: step up. It took a while for them to all
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: gel to learn the offense, to learn the defense, to
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: learn their new roles. Guess what we still Douglas has
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: been playing great since you've joined the team. On Halloween.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Daikwan Jones is back the defensive lineman for the Bills.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Bailey Zappie Bailey Zappi forty seventh out of forty eight
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: in EPA per play. We know it's the right thing
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: to do here. We know the Bills, even at a
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: big number on the right side, we have not been
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: afraid of this. This is one of the games I
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: wanted to present to you as one of our potential
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: final five.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if you want to get it in there, I mean,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: I would let you, but you'd have to wear it.
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: It's just it's a big number in the divisional game. Brother.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: The only reason I'm like want to get on it
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: with you is everything you just said.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: It's like if Josh Allen brings his a game, which
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, let's be honest, we haven't seen him what
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: a couple of weeks now, Like it feels like he's
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: hasn't played the games he was playing midway through the season, right,
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: he had a lot of games where yeah, he's still
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: turning the ball over, but he was putting up crazy numbers.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: I mean, look at what Diggs has done for the
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: last month since they've switched OCS.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: Like, it's just.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: They've changed style. Wh I don't think they're trying to
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: blow teams out like they were.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Like, it's they're.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: Kind of bringing the reins in a little bit on
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen becoming more of a run first team a
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: little bit right, Like they want to run the ball.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: It seems like they'd have found their identity a little
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: bit of running the ball and it works because it
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: brings everything down, like it pulls everyone up where Josh
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: Allen he can attack downfield again to guys like Gabe Davis. Yeah,
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: it's just been interesting watching their offense change so much,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: which is again why I think Josh Allen she would
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: have VP like their offense changed so much. So I'll
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: drink the coolie with you because I have this number
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: right where it is like I think it's like you're
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: getting no value technically on the Bills. But everything you
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: say is so true of like historically a dog like
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: New England winning a big game on the road, now
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: playing another back to back road game against the team
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: like the Bills who just played a really wonky, sloppy game.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: The Bills should kill him, like Chad saying here, So
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. I'm just a little
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: worried because the Bills have not earned that kind of
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: respect this season. They've never had a game where they've
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: dominated from start to finish. Every game sloppy and a
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: little close, and that's kind of been the Bills identity
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: this rich again, I love them for playoffs because they're
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: just this team that knows I pull these wins out,
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: like they can play in these really tough, sloppy games.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: But you want to bet on them being not perfect
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: but pretty damn close to it. At this big of
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: a spread number, I'll ride with it. It'll be fun
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: to cheer for a thirteen and a half point favorite.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, I usually don't do it all.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: See with the numbers.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: I'm here for it.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Ay, ay, I'll let you do it, but you got
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: to wear it. And then saying you agree with everything
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: I said is a bullshit move. Like you can't say
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: I agree with everything you said, but then you got
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: to wear it. Either we're in it together or we're
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: not because you agree with me.
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't make it one of our five, That's what
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: I'm saying. I mean, I'll bet it if you want
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: to take it, but there's other games I'd rather take them.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: This for the our five.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Well, we're not done yet, so we can see if
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: you end up with this as one of our five.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: You feel this passionate about the bills of thirteen and
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: a half, look at you.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Well, we'll see. I want to see what the number
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: is in the contest. It's thirteen, If it's twelve and
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: a half in the contest, for sure. If it's thirteen
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: and a half, I don't know. We'll have to see.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to Hedge, I'm not trying to walk
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: it back, but I don't know what it is in
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: the contest yet. The bills make me want to yoke
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: heels something, throw your hands something. So throw your hand
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: back and sack trouble now the bills, I'm making it
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: happen now. Speaking of games where we were confident on Tuesday,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: where you're feeling less confident today. The New York Giants,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: they were plus six, they were your Signon says, it's
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: now down to five and a half, seventy one percent
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: of the money coming into the Giants. We know it's
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: professional money. You said something during the Sharp Call segment
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: that the five and a half didn't really bother you.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Kind of doesn't bother me either, Like I haven't looked
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: at the contest lines, but I assumed it would be
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: five and a half in the contest where we're taking
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it at five and a half in the contest and
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: betting it at five and a half if you missed
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: the Simon says, not that concerned. I like the Giants
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: better with Tyrod Taylor. The biggest fear I have in
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: this game is Matthew Stafford. The Rams success throwing the
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: ball downfield and how dreadful the Giants' cornerbacks are. And
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: I was I thought you might say that's why some
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: of the wise guys are on the Rams.
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: I mean definitely the wise guys on the Rams, because
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: they've played some of the best football. Like speaking of
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: teams playing their best football at least last this last month,
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: the Rams are right up there. Already told you as
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: an Eagles fan, I'm dreading the two to seven matchup.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: That's how it lays out.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Where it's Us first, the Rams, Like who wants to
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: play the Rams, especially if you have a bad secondary,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: which is what you just said's true about the Giants,
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: Like I got a bad secondary. This should be easy
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: pickings for this Rams team. But I still think this
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: is just a bad spot for this Rams team, Like
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: it's sandwich in between, you know, a huge win they
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: just had and now they're going to play this game,
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: they have to go play the forty nine ers the
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: following week.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: It's just a classic letdown game.
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: But I told you the reason I'm a little hesitant
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: is I can't believe there's pros and the other side
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: of it. Like the Rams, I just didn't think they'd
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: be pro money coming out. I just felt like that
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: was gonna be the most public team of the week,
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: and I mean it's still looking that way right at
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: most books, it's still seventy percent of the bets. Over
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: seventy percent of the money is on the Rams. You know,
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: despite this number, like Chad said, we gave it out
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: six and a half, it went down to four and
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: a half. Now it's out five and a half. I
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: still would take Giants of five and a half. It
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: just it feels the same spot as we took Carolina
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: last week. It's like you're playing a number. You're playing
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: a game they expect to be close, and even when
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: you know they were down I think two touchdowns Panthers,
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: I was just like, somehow we're going to get to
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: this number, and I can't believe it did, and it
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: laid it on three.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: But it feels the.
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: Same thing here with the Giants of a team that
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: you know I can't help, but like, I'm gonna have
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: to bet them and I'm gon have to put them
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: in our money line around Robin.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: It's just a spot we play here. At the end
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: of the season. You expect a team that you know,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Stafford and all them how well they've been playing. It's
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: really hard to keep it up.
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: And wow, that's a crazy staff from Evan, which if
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: you're a Rams backer like this, Rams are ten and
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: three straight up week before playing the forty nine ers
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: since twenty seventeen.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: So forget everything I just said.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: No, But well, no, I don't. You know what I
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: don't because teams that are in the final two weeks
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: of the season that need to win or get into
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, that need either to get into the playoffs
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: or a win to improve their seating. Yeah, facing a
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: team with a winning percentage worse than them, in this
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: case the Giants and the Rams forty point three against
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years. That includes this week,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: by the way, unfortunately, leveland Buffalo, Houston, Rams, Colts, Falcons, Bucks, Chiefs,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Denver So a couple of games that we were talking about.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: But certainly it's an indicator for the Giants. It just
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: feels like this feels like Carolina for the past two weeks.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: It's the game you don't want to bet. You're a
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: little bit afraid of it. I said to you the
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: other day, I was really excited about the Rams, about
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: the rushing game, about Kyrine Williams about the giants inability
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: to defend against the run, and I'm like, this Giant,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: this RAMS team is a juggernaut, and you were so confident.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: You're like, this is when you bet the Giants. We
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: can't let people start chirping. No chirping.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: Well that was more about I knew the six and
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: a half was gonna last. I just knew that number
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: was way too big and that the pros would hit it.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: I didn't think they'd be hitting as big as they did.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, this number did drop over to four and
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: a half, which is like, that's real money moving that.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Two points through a couple key numbers.
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: So the fact that is back to five and a half,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: all you people out there, if you didn't miss the
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: Simon says, I wouldn't let it scare you off. I
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: would still take Giants five and a half. I would
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: take this, honestly, all the way down to four. So yeah,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: to me, the value for us is still there for
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: the contest, even at four and a half. I would
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: still be comfortable putting this in the contest.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: New Orleans at Tampa Bay. You're saying Tampa Bay minus
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I liked the Saints at plus three.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: The wise guys have moved this number. It was a
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: surprisingly public play. Everything you said was square in the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: way you defined what you wanted to do and why
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: you like this. Eighty eight percent of the money in
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: our database right now, wise guy money moving on the Saints.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: One of the biggest luck rankings games we've had all year.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Favoring the Saints. Baker thirteen twenty five against the spread
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: as a favorite, the fifth lead profitable quarterback as a
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: spread the past two decades.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I got I got nothing for you.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: I hate it, like I know you're supposed to bet,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: like Chad saying you're supposed to bet the Saints. The
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: numbers are gonna say it, the trends will say it
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: like as a better I want to be on the Saints.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: This is such a spot to take them a fade
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: a Bucks team who's just been on a straight roll.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: But it's the Dennis Allen Derek Carr effect.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: I just don't not I don't trust those guys in
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: the spot and they break the trends like it's crazy
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: to say. If they came to me, they said it
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: was going to be Taysom Hill, I'd feel better about it.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: But if it's Derek Carr.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: Jamis Winston, I just I can't have faith and these
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks it's just you know, Derek Carr is just this
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: guy who just breaks the mold where it's I should
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: listen to Cres Raybaugh. Like his first season a new offense,
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: Chris talked about it. He's just terrible. And this season
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: they had the schedule, they had such an easy schedule.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: They have so many good offensive weapons and I just
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: never could get it together and figure.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: It out this year.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: And yeah, this is for their season, this is everything.
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: Like they lose this, I believe they are officially eliminated
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: from the playoffs and the Bucks clinch right if they
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: win this in their division.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: So you know, like we talked about earlier, I like backing.
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Back in the road team with the points in this spot,
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: especially in divisional games. But yeah, I'm dug in, brother,
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: I'm on on the on the Bucks. But if you
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: if you want it to be once again, if you
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: want to be one of our picks, I won't find you,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: just because I know the pros love it so much
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: and I might have a little blind spot here.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: It's just I can't. I can't put faith into this
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: the SAT team.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: I can't justify putting it in the contest knowing how
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: much you're against it, because I'm wrong.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: I'm human.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but your instinct your instincts, and this tend to
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: be right and like and honestly, last week, our instincts
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: were both right about Detroit. And this is where this
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: is where betting just gets hard. Right, Like, even when
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: we talk about these trends, even when we talk about
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: the advantages, the models, the ratings, whatever, you're talking fifty
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: six to sixty percent of the time, which means two
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: out of three times you may win and one out
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: of three times you may lose. And that's not a
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: huge difference. So like, this could easily be one of
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: those games where everyone's wrong about the Saints and you're
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: right about the Bucks. Right, it could be the thirty
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: five percent, the thirty five to forty percent, even those
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: margins are small. Also, I don't feel as good about
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: this one as I do a different game. Okay, Atlantic Chicago,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: and I know you love the Bears here and you
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: were admittedly square seventy eight percent of the money on Atlanta.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: This one is not moved off of three, and Atlanta
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: just continues to be one of those teams that could
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: be bad luck, could be bad coaching, definitely bad quarterback play.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: But when they're a dog, I am more comfortable with
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: them then when they are a favorite. They are getting
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: much healthier while the Bears are a little bit unhealthy
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: right now. Cole Comett did not practice week. Darnol Mooney
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: did not practice this week. Unlikely cole Comette plays DJ
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Moore hobbled with an ankle. Atlanta's whole line, which has
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: been unhealthy the past few weeks, is back fully healthy.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: David Donymada nose tackle who helps them dominate the running
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: game defensively. We'll be playing again, so we better about
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Atlanta if we get the number. To me, this is
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: number dependent, to be honest. If Atlanta's three and a half,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I feel good about Atlanta right now. Is three.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: Now interesting to me? Chad?
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: Of the last twenty years, who do you think is
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: the best Chicago Bears player right last twenty years you've
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: been a fan.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: Who is the best player in Chicago bearris in the
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: last twenty years?
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Probably Brian R.
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: Locker, and I think it might be Devin Hester and
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: the reason I bring that up, Chad, is you saw
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: they announced the Hall of Famers. Oh yeah, And I'm
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: oping Chicago fans like you remember how great this guy
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: was should be You should be pulling the strings, Chad,
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: reaching out to everyone, gonna be your first Famer. Yeah,
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: And I was thinking about it because I'm with you.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: Brian Urca was incredible. I was saying about Bear's history.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: I think it might.
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: I mean again, Erlacker could probably play almost an air
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: in any era, but Devin Hester and Sweetness, they're probably
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: the two guys in your guy's history that could play
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: literally in enny air. Like you watched us highlight reels
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: with Devin Hester. He's gonna have that record forever, right,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: no one's ever gonna break that kick return recD. And
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: the reason I popped up was just because I wanted to,
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: Like I've talked to another Bears fans he said the
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: same thing you did, like last twenty years, I'd go
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: Erlacker and it's like, damn, no one, No one remembers
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: Devin Hester.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: He just so so many times. There was a game
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: against the Cardinals on the Bear when the Bears had
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: that run of the Super Bowl where he had a
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: run back that was amazing. And then that was a
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: rookie year, right, I think was it too it was
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: two thousand and five six.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: And either his first year, second year in the league,
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: because I was I was, I think, uh yeah, because
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: I was like my Madden days and like when he
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: came into the game, it changed everything.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Look, he also had that amazing runback the opening player
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl that I was at where me
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: and me and my buddy Matt nearly leapt out of
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: our shoes in that game. And it just gets for
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: that gets forgotten A because it was a monsoon. B
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: it was when Prince played Purple Rain in the rain
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: and see Peyton Manning won his first Super Bowl, But
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: that Devin Hester back gets forgotten. Are you trying to
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: avoid talking about this game?
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: No, it's my long way away again. You come back
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: around the bear. It's like, think about your nostalgia, all
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: your happiness. Don't jump off the bandwagon yet, And like
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: this week, it's really this week, I'm betting. Honestly, I'm
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: going against a lot of things we usually do because
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: I'm going with what these teams are at this point,
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: Like I'm not gonna keep making up my head what
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: these teams could be and what their potential is and
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: what they should do in these scenarios. And yeah, the
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: value is, like Chad's saying at three and a half, technically, yes,
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: the value is on Atlanta. But I just I don't
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: believe in them. I don't believe in that team, don't
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: believe in the quarterback, don't believe in the coaching, And
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: I just think the Bears, I mean, they are due
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: for a bad game, I suppose, but they've just been
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: playing so well. It feels like it's all full into
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: place with this Bear's team, Like they know exactly who
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: the identity is on offense right now, and the same
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: goes for their defense, Like they're just so I want
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: to say, they're so good right now, it's crazy. Like
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: this Bears team arguably would be terrifying if you played
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: them in the playoffs, right if they could somehow get in,
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: they would have been a terrifying matchup for most teams.
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: So Atlanta outdoors with Heinike on the road, gotta fade.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: I gotta fade, especially against the Bears defense that turns
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks over, like the dude's gonna get turned over, and
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: they're gonna make a one dimensional like you don't think
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: they know like we do that. All the Landa wants
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: to do is run the ball and then have play
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: action passes.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Like Arthur Smith.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: The gig feels a little bit up here right Even
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: their own fan base is kind of turning against them.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm I know it is the professional spot
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: to play Atlanta here, but I'm just not buying it.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm gonna stick on the Bears. I'm gonna
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: dig in Chad. I know it's a weird week for me,
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: but it's just I'm not buying a lot of this bullshit.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: These teams are selling.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Very uncomfortable for me right now. I'm not sure who
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: I'm talking to Carolina at Jacksonville. I feel like this
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: is one where we can rhon. We liked it at seven,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: it moved to six and a half. Trevor Lawrence injured.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: I don't believe he practiced yesterday. We continue to see
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: he did not practice yesterday. I'm looking at my notes
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: more clearly. Evan last week had a great stat about
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young against the spread in the second half, one
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: of the top four qbs, and we've seen this as
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Panthers backers for a couple of consecutive weeks. He just
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: ballin in the second half of these games, so you know,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: uh oh, here's a cool stat most turnover turnover worthy
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: plays since week thirteen. Trevor Lawrence twelve, Nick Mullins nine.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to Nick Mullins and the Vikings
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes seven. My point is I'm comfortable with the
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Giants at five and a half. I'm also comfortable with
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers at six and a half.
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's another again, though I hate because it's something
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: that we have to take right. It's like this number
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: is too big. We have to keep back in Carolina.
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: Funny because every week I'm like, all right, finally the
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: market will catch up to Carolina. We need to bet
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: him every week. We have to bet him again. I'm
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: with you people, but people keep bitch about it. I
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: had someone complain They're like, I've been on the sideline
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: these last two weeks with Carolina because I just can't
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: buy into them. I agree, I understand it, like it's
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: it's not been enjoyable.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: But we've been winning.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Chad and the number it feels like it's still too big.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: The market hasn't caught up to it. It's like, even
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: if Trevor Lawrence was fully healthy, I honestly could see
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: this number being seven, Like, I don't see it being
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: that much higher because that's how bad the Jaguars have
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: been playing defensively and offensively.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: So the fear here is I.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: Don't like back in Carolina on the road, they just
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: this season have struggled on the road more so than
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: at home. Like for some reason, at home they do
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: rally their defense. I know they didn't show it last week,
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: but historically this year they played better at home than
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: on the road. So if there was a spot for
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence to get right, this would be it. But
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: me and Chat talked about that last shows. I got
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: a bump, shoulder, a bad leg, and he's coming off
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: a concussion, Like it's it's crazy how banged up and
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: hell together this guy is. Now he's got burns coming, like,
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: you know, the d line of Carolina is not terrible,
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: Like they can actually get after guys for the most part.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: So yeah, ched like.
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: Another game where I don't know if we're gonna make
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: it our foxhole. But you know, I don't hate don't
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: hate this spot for Carolina at all.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: I think it needs to be a foxhole or big
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: balls because right now we are on the Giants, as
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Simon says, and that would be the other contender for
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: one of those two. We owe a fox hole in
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: big balls. It feels big ballsy to me, because backing
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Carolina at any point is big ballsy. This would be
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: I think our third time in a row backing the
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Panthers as our big balls better the week.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: It's probably the right thing, but I don't think it
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: takes that big of balls. I got a bigger balls
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: back coming up. And if you don't don't like, we
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: can go back to this one. But Wayne, do you
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: hear the game I like for a big balls game?
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: All right, well then let's put this in. Why don't
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: we just put this in Foxhoult.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: You love this game? All right? We'll play in the
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: Foxhoult Carolina.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Going to the Foxhoul with Carolina.
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: foxhole guy.
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: The last game that I want to talk about, green
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Bay and Minnesota is my exact decision. Of course, you
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: know I made this decision before JayR Alexander, the highest
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: paid cornerback in the NFL, was suspended. Do you know
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: why he was suspended, Simon, I do. He was suspended
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: because in the game against Carolina he is from Charlotte.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Unbeknownst to anyone on the team, including his head coach,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: he walked out for the opening coin toss with the
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: captains because he decided he should have been honored to
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: walk out in a game in Charlotte. And then not
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: only did he walk out without telling anybody for the
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: opening coin toss, he then made the call of what
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: the Packers were going to do and made it incorrectly.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: And so so this week he has been suspended for
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: contact detrimental to the team. He will not be playing
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: that aside, I think I still like Green Bay here,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: like everyone's got injuries. I like, I don't know who
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: the Vikings are playing at quarterback. They will probably without
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: Jordanette Addison who did not practice. Definitely without TJ. Hockinson.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: And most important is it Nick Mullins, Is it Josh Dobbs?
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: Is it going to be the rookie? Like, who's it
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: going to be? So I think we still got to
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: go to green Bay.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the only pushback that I got
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: from our pick, like the pros that called me up
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: and I had said at the time, I hadn't run
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: the numbers, and I think the number is fair at
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: this number.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: The model agrees with it. But the pushback is, this is.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: A defense in green Bay that made Tommy DeVito the
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: NFC Offense Spliff Player of the week. It's a defense
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: and made Baker Mayfield the offensive player of the week.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: And then last week Panthers, the team that has been
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: dead all season, put up thirty points. Bry she Young
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: put up thirty points against this green Bay defense. And
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: you know, as much as we like the praises green
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: Bay team and Jordan Love, which has been incredible, Like
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: if you're a green Bay fan, you must be a static,
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: Like this guy looks incredible, the defense has just been
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: brutal and now we are facing shocking to say, this
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: a Nick Mullens guy, who's is it two straight weeks
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: He's throwing for over three hundred yards something crazy like that,
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: Like we.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Might not be facing him, That's what I'm saying, Like
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: we don't know who they're facing. But whoever they're facing,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: it's either going to be a guy who is so
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: inaccurate he's got the most turnover worthy plays since Week
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: thirteen other than Lawrence, or they're playing Josh Jobbs, who
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: we know is not a quality NFL quarterback, or they're
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: playing a rookie who's basically lasted one play before Josh
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: jobs came in. So we don't know what kind of
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: quarterback they're going to be playing, but we do know
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: they have a quarterback who's really, really good and really
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: good against the blitz, which is what the Vikings are
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: best at.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: The best case it is Dobbs, though, like we want
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: the guy who can't throw the ball, right, Like that's
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: the weakness of this team. And we said it when
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: Dobbs was playing, like he's gonna eventually turn back into
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: a pumpkin guy can't throw the ball, Like that's why.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: He is what he is.
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: Nick Bullens can throw the ball. I mean he's has
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: turnover where he plays. But like you know, when you
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: have justin Jefferson, it's the game changer of game changers,
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: Like you can make the most turnover throws ever. And
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: the guy what was it third and twenty five, he
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: like pulled it down somehow. It's just it's incredible, like
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: you forget it because he had been gone for so long,
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: but it's like, oh, yeah, that's the guy who was
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: the best player in the league last year at wide receivers.
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: So nothing changed for me, though, Chad, like, I'm with
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: you on it. I'm on Green Bay. I'm backing it
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: for what you just said. It feels like I have
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: more confidence in Jordan Love and that Green Bay offense
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: in this spot, and I do a Vikings team that's
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: been playing so above their head, like we already talked
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: about it on Tuesday show, but like I know they're
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: not going to give it to them coach of the Year,
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: But I mean, this is crazy, Like this Minnesota team,
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: I cannot believe they're in this position with their fourth quarterback.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: The whole thing is so crazy.
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: How just football, how dependent it is on the coaching,
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: Like everyone in the town level is so close, but
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: if you have the right coaching, it can be everything.
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: And this Vikings defense and offense just can't can't hat
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: tip them enough. But yeah, the pros, like I said,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: the pros I talked to, they like the Vikings here,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: So don't be shocked if you should see the summer
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: go up to two. Me and Chad would be elated
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: if this gets up to two and a half for
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: us in the contest. But I think it'll stay at
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: two one and a half. That's where it's gonna sit
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: to me until kickoff.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: All Right, you said you had a big balls that
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: we haven't discussed.
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to for here.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: All right, let's hear it.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: Chad, are we backing the Washington the Commanders? Dude?
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: I didn't know if you're going to go with the
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Commanders or the Cardinals. And look, we talked about this
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: the other day. Jacobe Brissett just getting in his licks
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: at the end of games when the game is so
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: far out of reach.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: I know, I know, I don't know what to do
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: with it.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Is like, is San Francisco in a spot where historically
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: they're terrible and you want to fade them, or are
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: they going to be in a spot where they know
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: they need to get it right and prove they can
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: dominate a game. Trent Williams again injured, don't know his
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: status for the weekend. Could be. Christian McCaffrey rebound grab
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the MVP away from Lamar Jackson. I mean, it certainly
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: takes balls.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: So that was one, and then you already said it
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: like Arizona.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: That's what we were talking, these big favorites and these
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: big dogs, Like I'm with you on Buffalo. I would
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: just rather take Arizona's a big dog or take Washington
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: as a big dog, like either one. To me, I
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: like them both. If we're saying which one do I
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: feel more comfortable in, It's got to be Arizona, right
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: where Eagles team just like the Bills, Who the hell
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: are they to be catching this many points? Like they
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: keep having these games of letting these teams back in
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: where just like josh Allen Hurts can't stop making stupid turnovers,
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: like he'll make incredible plays where like plays were only
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: a couple of guys in the league can make those
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: kind of plays, and then he'll have the most boneheaded turnover.
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: And we talked about it to the Shane Stikeen effect,
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: like they lost their row. See, their offense hasn't looked
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: right all season, and Arizona is the perfect team to
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: get right against. Right they are one of the worst
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: defenses in football. But Kyler on the flip side. I mean,
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: you said in that Bears game they had tons of opportunities,
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: they just couldn't connect on it. And it's like, I'd
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: rather bet Arizona get unlucky here, because that's I want
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: to take to not cover the summer phelsically Arizona, like
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: Arizona should cover this number against this Eagles team. The
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: number is way too big. It's just a classic spot
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: of the books. They know the ten point teasers are
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: coming in heavy, like this is such a ten point
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: teaser game, like this game, the forty nine Ers, the Bills.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: People love those kind of bets, like string all three
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: of them together. That's just it lines up perfectly. So
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: unfortunate this number has come down, but I would still
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: take it at eleven. If you would take the Arizona again,
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: I'd feel more comfortable to taking this over Washington, just
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: because we've seen the fortynineers actually play really well this year.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: We have not seen that from the Eagles. Well.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Look, remember on Tuesday, I wanted to make Arizona my
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: exec decision, and then I got squeamish because the number
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: had moved a point and a half two points from
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: twelve down to I think ten and a half or ten,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: and so I walked away from it and went with
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Green Bay in stacks. I like that matchup a little
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: bit more just because I think Jordan Love is going
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: to be the best sort of offensive producer on the
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: field consistently who has the ball in his hands the most.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: But I think the breakdown matchup wise for Arizona in
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: this game is great for them, And I love Trey
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: McBride against the middle of this Eagles defense that has
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: just not been able to be productive defending against the
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: middle of the field, especially tight ends in the middle
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: of the field. So Arizona Cardinals against the Philadelphia Eagles
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: as underdogs will be our big balls better of the week.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Saying it for the entire hotel to hear. Throw that
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: graphic up there, Tito. We are not afraid of it,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: not afraid of it at all. It's interesting, Simon, I
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: don't know that we have five games right now.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I got two more games to talk about.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Oh all right, all right, have you.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: Come around on the Seahawks?
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: Are you still believing in Pittsburgh and Mason Rudolph on
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: the road in Seattle?
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph on the road in Seattle.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: I know, I know when you say it like that,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, of course, of course I'm going to be like, yeah,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: let's do Seattle.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Do it.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: Look, you gotta take some of these home chalk, all right.
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: Not all these road favorites are gonna win. It doesn't
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: work that way. Like there's a reason they're sucking you
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: guys in with these three and a halfs. Yeah, if
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: you don't want to do that, if you don't want
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: to do Seahawks, what about Colts? Like I just I
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: want to take one of these chalky home favorites. I
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: just I like them, like I like the chalk this week,
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: I like some of these home favorites where it's just
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: it feels like we're getting good value on teams that
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: they're playing against, teams overvalued. Pittsburgh feels overvalued, the Raiders
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: feel overvalued.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: So it's like, I don't know.
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: Which one of these I'm gonna try to force in
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: on you, Chad, But it's like, I don't know, just
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: feels like a good spot for the Colts, and it
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: feels like a great spot for the Seahawks. Like the Seahawks.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: Say what you want about that team. I know they've
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: had back to back really close games. It's just like
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: we've seen them at home when they're playing against inferior talent, which.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph is is.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: Their defense can turn teams over, and I feel like
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: this is a good spot for their defense, Seahawks wise
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: against Mason rulf and the offense. But it's just crazy
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: after one week the fear of the Steelers people have
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: because you're like I talked to a bunch of pros
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: who like the Steelers, and I just kept saying, it's
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph in Seattle.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, come on, all right, I have no strong
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: opinion on this game as I do and like say
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: the Saints or Atlanta, So let's go with Seattle.
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: Well, if I told you a majority of the money
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: and the bets right now are coming in on Pittsburgh
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: and this number is not Budge from the three and
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: a half, well.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: That would tell me there's someone very very sharp coming
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: in on Seattle to balance this out, and for all
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: I know, it could be you.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, give me gim me Gino Smith at home
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: with the Twelfth Man.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: All right, So Seattle's in it. It will go over
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: the final five before before we before all of said
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: and done, because I feel like there's potential potentially.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: It feels like we got to six or seven of
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: them at this point, right.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so, yeah, I do all right. Before
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: we get to our money line, underdog around, Robin reminded
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: of the week seventeen contest tiebreaker is total passing yards
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: on Monday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: to that article can be found in this episode description.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: If you want to leg up in the contest, Good
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: luck everybody. All right, let's talk about how we're gonna
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor of
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: the NFL, part of your game day, Simon. Can I
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: assume your number one New Year's resolution is to eat
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: more Little Caesars pizza. It is order online during our
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: Pizza Pizza pre game one hour before NFL games and
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Sign in.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: I have a new motto. What do you think about
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: this one? That I invented? If Russell Wilson left your
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: holidays crushed? Cheer yourself up with crazy crust. I do
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: that so fast, don't I like the news about Russell Wilson.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: He's so in the moment, and I just come up
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: with these phrases just like that. However, you are your pizza,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: you win. And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: delivery or our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Also reminder, for the second time, you can catch every
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites live on YouTube every Tuesday Thursday Sunday.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to give us
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about our money line, Underdog Round Robin pot
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks bot Dog. Well, shoot,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have to put the giants in there.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: Let's get Arizona in there.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: Arizona probably Carolina.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Panthers.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: Let's see a Green Bay's number, I mean Green Bays
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: plus one one ten?
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: All right, green Bay? What about Detroit?
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Okay plus plus one eighty?
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I mean that game you could easily see them running
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Dallas out of the building as easily as we can
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: see Dallas dominating that game.
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it's all about what kind of Dak shows up.
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: But historically Dak at home shows up right in these
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: kind of spots.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: It's exactly what I say, who's showing up, who's on
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: both sides? Who's showing up for Detroit? Are they a
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: team that's hungover? Are they a team that's motivated. Are
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: they a team that feels they can grasp the brass
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: ring right now because there's still potential for them to
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: sneak in with a higher seed. We don't know at
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: this point. At this point, to quote one of the
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: greatest movies ever about last Night, at this point, we
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: just don't know. Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, New York
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Football Giants. You feel good about those?
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Right now?
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: Looking at money lines, Arizona's only getting five percent of
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: the bets and five percent of handle on their money line.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: What are we doing?
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: Hey?
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: If there's only getting ten percent of the bets, ten
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: percent of the money on their money line, and we're
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: the Giants. I just love when no one's bet on
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: the Giants six percent of the bets, nine percent of
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: the money on their money line. So I love those
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: kind of spots where no one's touching the money lines
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: and we're taking them.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: So I like this once for this week, our last,
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: our last part.
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Of the year, Simon, we are going ugly. What are
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: your biggest bets of the week right now? Uh?
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: I mean it was definitely Giants. I haven't put too
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: much x more though since numbers moved to the five
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: and a half. I'll be honest, but I mean I
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: slammed it at six six and a half. Same thing
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: goes for Miami, like love Miami if you can still
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: find three and a half four been hitting that For
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: the chalk bets, I'm going heavy on so far Colts, Seahawks, Bears,
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: and I haven't made a single bet on this Bucks game.
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: I might have like a thousand bucks on it. At most.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: I was just waiting to talk to people and figure
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: out what to do it with it. I know I'm
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: dug in, so I guess I will eventually bet this
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: Bucks game, but it's like a part of me just
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: wants to stay away because I have no idea what
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: to do with it. It's like everything like we talked
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: about me and chat, I want to take the Saints,
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: but I just can't do it, so yeah, I know
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: people are shocked here that books are one of my
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: bigger bets are and I just I don't know what
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: to do with it, Like I just feels so damn chalky.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: But I know it's the right side.
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: So come Sunday, I'm sure bucks will get up there,
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: especially if it's still a two and a half.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: But I'm just screaming sh right now trying to bet
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: that number.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Well, that's how we feel about putting in the contest.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Bet three six five Due Ordinary.
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• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Before we get out of here. As always on Thursday,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: we're joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: the man we mentioned so often as the engine behind
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: the great stats and nugget you here on the show
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: and across the entire Action Network. Evan, give us something
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: to hold on to, really our guard rail on the
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: roller coaster of betting life. The last word with Evan Abrams,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: we're finished talking.
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: When I went into this week fellas, I had to
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: come up with a stat for Vikings Packers and Buck
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: Saints just because I felt like it was fifty to
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: fifty the entire way and everyone had an opinion. So
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: this is what I came up with. So both games
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: are a win and survive losing go home type of game.
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: So in December or later, when two division teams play
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: both with win percentage between forty percent and sixty percent,
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: which is literally the fighting zone this time of year,
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: home teams forty two, sixty seven and two thirty eight
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: point five percent. Last twenty years, in those games, the
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: two teams in match, the Minnesota Vikings the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: Wow, see what we'll see what happens?
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Alright, Well, I feel better about putting Green Bay in now.
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah that one.
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: I saw that one.
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: I was like leading with that, all right. Two totals
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: worth talking about Detroit Dallas currently fifty three and a
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: half would be the highest closing total of the season
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: so far. Totals of fifty plus actually twenty seven and
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: twelve sixty nine percent to the under last two years.
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: So we'll see which way that goes. Inside indoors fast
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: track Jets Browns down to thirty four on Thursday Night
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: Football with a spread of seven and a half, though
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: this would be the first game to close with a
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: total below thirty five for the spread of seven or
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: more since Steelers Broncos twenty twelve playoff game Tim Tebow
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: to the Marius Thomas over time shown. So that was
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: a fun one. Good memory there. And then I leave
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: you with this, Patrick Mahomes, We have no idea what's
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: going on, except here are the numbers. He is thirty five,
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: twenty two and one to the under in his home
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: starts in his career last two years fifteen and three
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: to the under in his home starts, going under by
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: six point eight points per game, and this season Chiefs
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: second half unders thirteen and two fourth quarter unders this year.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Fourteen and one. Hey, Matt Naggy, huh be Ben's been
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: not not been very nice. Oh you had to make
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: it about man nagget in gin. Yeah, Well, can't be
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: about the receivers. It can't be about Travis Kelce. It
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: can't be well, the drops, the wide receiver drops. There
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: you go exactly all right, if we had to do
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: the five, the phase five right now to sign him.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: Here's what I think. We're looking at Carolina, Green Bay Giants, Arizona,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: and then I think it's coming down to Buffalo or Seattle.
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: And I actually feel like by Sunday this could all change.
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: I'll do.
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: We need to get one favorite in though last week
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: we did five dogs. I told you always want to
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: get one favorite in there. We should have had a
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: lane in there last week. So either or Seattle, I'm
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: happy to force in one favorite.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Well, let's look, it's Buffalo right now. Buffalo or Seattle
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: are the remaining too.
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: It's someone with tougher skin. I can handle the criticism.
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: I'll take seahawks.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Are you fucking kidding me? O, life is criticism. Do
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: you know what it's like. Do you know what it's
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: like to be me? To have been in this business
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: for this long, to be raising two sons who spend
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: most of their day talking to you the way I
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: talk to my parents, as if they don't even know
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: how to turn on their phone. Don't talk to me
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: about not having a tough skin.
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: You seem like a hando criticism Really well, right.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Now, this reaction notwithstanding, do not talk to me. Do
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: not talk to me about not having touch it. Will
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: continue to discuss this as we move forward. Download us
• 59:14
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• 59:24
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