Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here + 15 February 2024

Transcript

A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here + 15 February 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to this Thursday morning pre-market live bananas data morning.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: We've got our retail data, which is massively off what is expected.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We've got jobs data out and we also have some data out that will help us make better decisions and understand which way the market's heading.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: And I'll take all your questions live and it's going to be fun.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: I thank you for being here, I thank you for liking the whatever button you see, and just you know, generally being a wonderful human being, so shall I share the data.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: But you do want to see it.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: You want to see it, or do you rather not?
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: And, of course, ping your questions in the chat and I will do my best to answer them.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: And here we go.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: We have out, first of all, retail sales data, and it is coming at minus 0.8%, so it's falling.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: And we were expecting it to come in at about 0.1% minus, so it is eight.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: We get a red pen for emphasis of how bad this is.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: We got eight times worse data than we were expecting.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Well, or maybe somebody should fire the economists who work on Wall Street and claim that they can forecast stuff because they got they have got a fricking idea.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: And is that good or is that bad?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a slowdown in the economy, so it will allow the Fed to cut rates sooner.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: You might argue it is not good news for retail stocks sort of Macy's and Nike of this world and that kind of stuff but in itself it doesn't mean that much.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: We look at what it means over the last couple of months in just a second.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at initial jobless claims.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: That's come in at 212,000.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: That's lower than expected, just a little bit lower, which isn't great.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: But it's also not terrible because the data nobody believes this data anymore.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: One of the Fed presidents came out yesterday and said he is dubious about jobs data around this time of the year Like OK or like pretty much every month, especially in this government Working jobless claims at 1.9 million.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Basically, if you believe that there are only 1.9 million unemployed Americans, you really I mean I want some of what you are smoking.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: It must be good.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Nobody believes this stuff.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Basically, what the government does is the following they take part-time jobs, part-time jobs, and they say part-time jobs are equal to full-time jobs.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: What we're doing is we are losing full-time jobs and we're gaining part-time jobs Because some people are working two or three jobs.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: They skew the numbers?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Total nonsense.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: The US has lost close to a million jobs in the last year, but anyway, we don't need to get into that Politics, none of that.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: What about retail sales data?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: This is retail sales data adjusted for inflation for the last year, and you can see it's down out of the last one.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Hang on, we had two green months, three green months.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So that's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, 11, 12.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Out of the last 12 months, it was negative for nine of those months.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: And then December, ok, santa went shopping, and if you believe the jobs data, you will believe in Santa.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I hope they know children watching.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: That would be a terrible thing to do, wouldn't it?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Yes, the Easter Bunny is real too, and he's coming soon.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So it does tell you that, the opposite of what the US economic advisor Brainard used to be at, the Fed told the world today that the US consumer is strong.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Hmm, probably because she knew this data was coming.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, a little nonsense that, but the market is taking it in its stride.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: It's not freaking out Flattish Ever.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Rebound on Meta and Microsoft.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Amazon is down a little.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: They wear green.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: That's retail spend, oops.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Google is down 1.7 percent.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Tesla is up a little bit.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Elon owns 20.5 percent of Tesla.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: He filed today, or we saw the filing today.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Disney is down a little bit.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe the numbers identify as positive numbers, who knows?
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: The banks are up broadly speaking.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of a you know.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So greenish morning, Nothing, nothing to get particularly upset about.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: But let's understand a little bit deeper what the heck is actually going on here.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Flapjacks, I don't know what you guys are talking about in the chat here.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: If you want to see how I am up on my trading portfolio that I run for the creation community, we are up 13 percent this year.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: We did 105 percent last year, 126 the year before.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: That's return on capital employed.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: So to be transparent on that, you can come and join me for a live trading training on Tuesday Trading for dummies, that's basically what I call it and you will walk away with my three rules how we actually do it.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: We'll execute some trades together and you can ask me all the difficult questions that you've always wanted to ask.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: And if you are a beginner or maybe you are actually not a beginner come and join me and I think you'll learn something and you walk away without knowledge.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: You also get to join our private community Facebook group and so on.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: So sign up.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Felix Fensilogs, it is live on Tuesday, 10 am Eastern time, and it is really live.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: You can see it's live because I do some live trades and it would be very silly to pretend that that was live.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: I don't really go in for that kind of stuff.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So Nvidia has taken over, overtaken, I should say.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: That's a big difference, isn't it?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Google?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: It is now a bigger company than Google, so it's now Nvidia, then Google, then Amazon, so Nvidia now bigger than Amazon and Google.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: And that's maybe also why Google is down a little bit this morning.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Google is still an extra trillion and Microsoft an extra trillion, 1.2 trillion, if they want to become the biggest listed company out there.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: But just to give you an idea of the insanity of how amazing these companies are Google, alphabet sorry, microsoft and Apple are larger than the Swiss market, the Swissies.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I'm going to put a red cross there and it's a white cross, but you get the idea.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: The FTSE 100, for you Brits out there, which is a rubbish index, sorry, and also the Euro stocks, the 50 largest I can't write Euro, it makes me shudder the 50 largest companies in Europe.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So just those three American companies are bigger than basically all of Europe, the UK and Switzerland combined.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Interesting, isn't it?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I thought it was very interesting, worthy, worthy of hitting the like button.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Who am I to say the Nasdaq?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Earnings growth is expected and this is important is expected to be flat for the next six months and then expected to moon in the second half of the year.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So pencil in for the second half of the year.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: All else being equal, a rally.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That's my point of view there, not financial advice, but you get the idea.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Now some people are saying we're in a bubble, stocks are insanely expensive, maybe more so or equal to 2000,.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: And it's not true.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It's just not true.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: At the in the dot com bubble, when I was working in the dot com company during the dot com bubble, as any self-respecting form of anchor was, and anybody who says to you this business is worth 50 times the amount of money we burn, kind of crazy, isn't it?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: That was literally 2000 or 1999.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: At that time, techs companies were basically two times the S&P in terms of valuations.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Right now it's only 1.25 times.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: That means, according to the lovely folks at Sockgen I'm sorry if you're French, the Brits call it Sockgen to offend you, because they could say Société Générale if they want to too, but they don't.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So they call it Sockgen because they know it makes your ears ring.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: We would need to hit 6,250 on the S&P, which would be another 1,250 points up, give or take.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: That's possible, possible.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Then we would probably be in bubble land and we will need some more stimulus.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Michael the Bury has undone his shorts because he was wrong.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: As my thumbnail suggests, he made a bet against semiconductors.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Imagine how well that did.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Well, he wrote in January last year Cell I actually understand that Most of us felt that way, banking crisis and all that.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Then he wrote in March I was wrong to say Cell.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Then he said Cell again in the middle of the year.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: He didn't short Nvidia, no.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: He shorted Sox the ones on your feet no, the semiconductor ETF.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: He did that somewhere around the middle of the year and well, semiconductors mooned and he undoubtedly.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Well, he's closed that trade.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: So what does he own now?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: The man is con long.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: The man has become an owner, a buyer of stocks, and here I have the stocks that he purchased.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: He bought let me get a green pen he bought more Alibaba, he bought more JDcom.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: And then he bought also HCL, all local city group, cvs, google, amazon, MGM, advanced auto parts, block Bruker no idea what that is Toast.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: He bought Metla Toledo I commend him for that decision American Coastal big lots, gen, restaurants and curate retail.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: He went on a bit of a bender, didn't he?
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: $94 million, so he spent about 70 million on extra shares.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Now what's he short?
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: We don't know.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Do you know the beauty of these disclosures?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: You don't have to tell people your short positions.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, how idiotic is that?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Who at the SEC thought that was a good idea?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Maybe somebody who had you know?
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say that they're corrupt or idiotic.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: I think they're more corrupt than idiotic.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I actually don't think they're stupid, I think they're just corrupt.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: But there we are.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: So he sold Bookingcom, stellantis, a bunch of other things and his socks iShares Semiconductor put.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So he was short Bookingcom and he was short socks Didn't work out too well, I would have imagined.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So do we know how much money he lost?
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Not exactly, but he had $47 million on a short trade essentially.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So it would have stung just a teeny tiny bit even for him.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Does that mean he's an idiot?
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Does that mean he's a loser.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Does that mean he's a terrible trader?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: No, that's his style of trading.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: He will make five, six, seven, eight trades.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: That'll be wrong when you lose some money.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: And then he'll make one that'll be so whoppingly large that he'll make a huge amount of money on that.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: He might lose 10 trades on a row and then do one huge trade.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Do I recommend that style of trading?
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: No, it's almost impossible for an ordinary human being to pull off, because most of us want to jump off a bridge if we lose nine trades on a row.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: We're not really built for that, so I'd recommend to do lots of small trades that have a very high probability of winning.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: All right, this is Buffett's portfolio data.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I'll just today as well.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: What did they sell?
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: First of all, people are always most interested in that.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: They actually sold a little bit of Apple, and you'll see some really misleading headlines on that.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: We're in Buffett's sales Apple.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Well, yes, he did sell 10 million shares, but the value of that holding actually went up from 156 billion, isn't it?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Is that billion?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I think it's billion to 174 billion.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: Is that billion?
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: I think it must be.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: It must be in thousands, right?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have a $347 million shareboard for it it must be billions.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: So it's actually gone up and it could be that there is some sort of cap or something that they don't want to exceed and that's why they sold a little bit.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: They also sold some Paramount more of that.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: They sold some HP, actually a lot of HP 2 million shares of HP, which is the majority of their holding.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: What did they buy?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Well, they bought Chevron Occidental we know both of those and Sirius.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Now they have been hinting that they've been buying a new company, a finance company, and rumors are whirling around social media.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: We don't know what it is, but it's a finance company that's what we know like a bank or something like that.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: So we don't know which one that is.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, they already own Visa and Mastercard.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: It isn't Capital One, it isn't those.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: So which one is it?
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Could it be PayPal?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe a little too early, I would have thought, for his kind of style, it could be a bank.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: We'll find out.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: It'd be very interesting to see.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I will let you know as soon as I find out.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Scary chart of the day.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be a nice feature to include just something terrifying once a day.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: It's good for the soul.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: The white line is the S&P 500 now and the red line is the S&P 500, 1929.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: And they actually move pretty much exactly the same, except that in 1929 we went down minus 88%, scared.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Yet so there we are.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Come and join me See how we're up 30% this year, 105% last year and, of course, not financial advice, past performance, not indicator of future and all that kind of stuff.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: But come and join me, I will teach you how to do what I do at philxfriendsorg Webinar.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a seat.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: It takes you to this page.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: It says here the dumbest guy to trading my three-step trading plan plus watch me trade life.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: That's the promise to sign up for a.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a seat.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: It is free of charge, like about 90% of what we put out Now.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: This, of course, is what made President Biden's heart leap today the endorsement of every presidential candidate wants from President Putin.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Putin says that he backs Biden over Trump.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Oh, biden must be so happy.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: You know what that means?
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: One very, very simple thing.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: It means where did my pen go?
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: It means the Ukraine war is good for Putin.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Trump said he's going to end it.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Wars are usually good for dictators.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: So there's a thought Send some more weapons there, putin will like it.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: It will strengthen this hold on Russia and all the assets.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: So there we go.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Wars always help somebody.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Shall we have a look at the pre-market again.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Microsoft screen, metagrid, google down a bit, nvidia sort of down a little, apple down half a percentage point, amazon a little down, probably on very, very soft, not to say recessionary, retail data.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Other than that, things are looking all right.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Fat drugs are up, tesla is up, the GEO is up, berkshire looking good, jp Morgan looking good.
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: Headlines, dozens of banks rapidly piled up, commercial property loans, whoops.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: And there is a lovely chart on Bloombergcom.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I'd love to share it with you, but it's some fancy little thing that I can't share, and what it says is above the dotted line in the middle.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: The banks above are run by morons and they are not in compliance with regulatory guidance, and NYCB is one of those, and the other big one is the Valley National Bank Corp.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Compared to their capital, they have 471% more commercial real estate exposure.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Not good, is it?
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, and there are some, some, some little ones, you know the P-Pack, gladstone Financial Corporation and the Washington Trust, the Eagle Bank, all that kind of stuff.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: So I would, generally speaking, avoid these institutions.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, you've got the ones down here the Barclays, the Ally Financial and so on, who don't have these issues and are therefore much more solid Questions.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Do we have questions or we don't want to know anything today?