Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 89 : What We Got Wrong
Transcript
- 0:16Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode eighty nine of Cards
- 0:20Speaker 1: and Categories. I'm my cool Ard from Rasball, joined as
- 0:23Speaker 1: always by my very good friend Jeremy Burer, also from Rasball.
- 0:27Speaker 1: How are you doing tonight, Buddy, doing doing well?
- 0:30Speaker 2: Very excited about this pod because I can ignore my
- 0:32Speaker 2: lineups for the night and we can talk about baseball.
- 0:35Speaker 2: So I've been watching all my poor choices and how
- 0:38Speaker 2: they were playing tonight. So I'm excited to be here,
- 0:40Speaker 2: Excited to make some better choices with my fantasy baseball
- 0:43Speaker 2: lineups after this pod, because I don't think like I'm
- 0:46Speaker 2: gonna learn so much.
- 0:47Speaker 1: Yes, we are going to have a pretty fun pod,
- 0:49Speaker 1: I think in terms of reevaluating ourselves a month in
- 0:53Speaker 1: which I mean this is dangerous considering some of the
- 0:56Speaker 1: takes that we had in our preview pods happened oh
- 0:59Speaker 1: month before spring training even started, so we were flying
- 1:03Speaker 1: a little bit blind. But still, like you would think
- 1:05Speaker 1: that if we're going to tout ourselves as fantasy experts,
- 1:08Speaker 1: I mean we are at rasball dot com, you would
- 1:11Speaker 1: think that we would have maybe slightly better takes. But well,
- 1:14Speaker 1: I guess I mean maybe to pat ourselves on the back,
- 1:16Speaker 1: a little bit. When we did go through when I
- 1:18Speaker 1: went through some of our takes from earlier in the
- 1:21Speaker 1: previous season, we had quite a few good ones. So,
- 1:24Speaker 1: like I think there were quite a few hits, quite
- 1:25Speaker 1: a few winners. But we're gonna evaluate maybe where we
- 1:28Speaker 1: missed tonight in terms of players that we missed on,
- 1:32Speaker 1: or just kind of overall approaches and strategy that we're
- 1:35Speaker 1: gonna tweak going forward and kind of see what we
- 1:37Speaker 1: can learn, because I mean, that's really the only way
- 1:39Speaker 1: to get better at this is kind of evaluate what
- 1:42Speaker 1: has gone wrong and be able to kind of continuously
- 1:45Speaker 1: approve improve on that, to be able to figure out
- 1:49Speaker 1: where your blind spots are, figure out where your strengths are,
- 1:52Speaker 1: and then just kind of evaluate yourself as a fantasy player.
- 1:55Speaker 1: So before we get into that, like I said, we're
- 1:58Speaker 1: speaking on April thirtieth, Wednesday night. Kind of gets me
- 2:01Speaker 1: excited because you know what next week is. It's Player
- 2:03Speaker 1: of the Month PC for the first time as well
- 2:05Speaker 1: as we're gonna have Bowman twenty twenty five previous, so
- 2:08Speaker 1: it's gonna be quite the jam packed pod next week.
- 2:10Speaker 1: But we need to get into the discussion of maybe
- 2:14Speaker 1: the greatest catch of all time that I've seen. It
- 2:18Speaker 1: feels like I've perperly given like all of the gifts
- 2:21Speaker 1: and all the highlights that get streamed straight to us
- 2:23Speaker 1: from ESPN. But when this thing came through my alerts
- 2:27Speaker 1: last night, I was like, oh man, just another catch.
- 2:31Speaker 1: Make sure to check out the show notes for this one,
- 2:33Speaker 1: because this is not just another catch. We are talking
- 2:36Speaker 1: about Toronto's Dalton Varshow in center field making an absolute
- 2:40Speaker 1: circus catch, going back, tripping over himself, still catching it
- 2:44Speaker 1: behind his back. So Brew we're putting this like this
- 2:47Speaker 1: is pod canon. Now what do you have to say
- 2:50Speaker 1: about this catch?
- 2:51Speaker 3: Do you?
- 2:52Speaker 1: Every time I watch it, I still can't believen believe
- 2:54Speaker 1: it happened, can you?
- 2:56Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't believe it happened. Like, and I know
- 2:59Speaker 2: what's going through his mind. I being an outfielder growing
- 3:03Speaker 2: up myself, that's what I did, and like, I never
- 3:06Speaker 2: did that, let's be very clear, but I remember, I'm
- 3:10Speaker 2: going to admit, but there's this like dynamic of the
- 3:15Speaker 2: game goes slow. You know, when we watch the game,
- 3:18Speaker 2: the game seems fast. There's a lot of things happening
- 3:20Speaker 2: when when you're out there and you're playing and you
- 3:22Speaker 2: know this is what you do. Like the game's actually
- 3:24Speaker 2: relatively slow for you. So you know, for Dalton var show,
- 3:28Speaker 2: as he went back, he got his feet tangled up,
- 3:30Speaker 2: he went down. All of it was happening in real time.
- 3:32Speaker 2: There's all the emotions of I've got to beat in
- 3:35Speaker 2: this ball, I'm gonna catch it. All of a sudden,
- 3:37Speaker 2: what happened? I'm on the ground, How do I react?
- 3:40Speaker 2: Can I still do something? And oddly reaches back and
- 3:43Speaker 2: like back hands the ball out of the air, and
- 3:45Speaker 2: then just pure embarrassment is what then hits. It is
- 3:48Speaker 2: the oh my god, what did I do? I made
- 3:53Speaker 2: the play, but I look like the biggest buffoon in
- 3:56Speaker 2: the world doing it. And you can see the emotion
- 3:58Speaker 2: after he caught this. He tossed it back in. He
- 4:01Speaker 2: didn't even want to smile. He didn't want to smile.
- 4:03Speaker 2: And then you saw it crack of like how ridiculous
- 4:06Speaker 2: this was. He knew that he had just completely messed
- 4:09Speaker 2: up owned it, but yet made an unbelievable play at
- 4:12Speaker 2: the same time. That is the pure genius of Dalton
- 4:15Speaker 2: varshow he is that gold glove caliber outfielder and when
- 4:19Speaker 2: you mess up, you can do amazing things at the
- 4:21Speaker 2: same time, So it was an amazing catch. I think
- 4:24Speaker 2: you're right this oddly rivals like Mike Trout jumping almost
- 4:28Speaker 2: halfway over the wall time to catch the fact that
- 4:31Speaker 2: he was able to pull this off, and so absolutely
- 4:34Speaker 2: love it. It was fantastic to see. I'm probably gonna
- 4:36Speaker 2: watch another ten times a night, just because I still
- 4:39Speaker 2: don't quite understand how he managed to pull that off
- 4:42Speaker 2: the way he did.
- 4:43Speaker 1: Yeah, and just the way he almost made it like routine,
- 4:46Speaker 1: even though there was that like embarrassment, Just the way
- 4:48Speaker 1: it was so smooth, the way he kind of backhanded
- 4:51Speaker 1: that ball looking over his shoulder that at this point
- 4:54Speaker 1: they should probably just give him the Platinum Glove because
- 4:56Speaker 1: I don't know who else can pull that off except
- 4:58Speaker 1: for Dalton Varshow, who is just a superb, supreme center fielder.
- 5:03Speaker 1: So I love it, like it's it's gonna be one
- 5:07Speaker 1: of I think the highlights of twenty twenty five that
- 5:09Speaker 1: like we'll kind of remember it and kind of pinpoint
- 5:12Speaker 1: it to this season. But like, if you're a Blue
- 5:15Speaker 1: Jays fan, do not look at the rest of that
- 5:16Speaker 1: box score.
- 5:16Speaker 2: Maybe there was one highlight and you can argue whether
- 5:22Speaker 2: it's a high or lower, a little bit of.
- 5:24Speaker 3: Everything, yes, exactly.
- 5:27Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's get into some of the news and
- 5:29Speaker 1: notes that are affecting our fantasy teams out there before
- 5:32Speaker 1: we get into that second half conversation about where we
- 5:35Speaker 1: might have missed in our preview takes. First one out
- 5:38Speaker 1: the gate is we've got a trio of pretty big
- 5:41Speaker 1: picture call ups. A couple of these guys we actually
- 5:44Speaker 1: they were my picks for picks to click in our
- 5:47Speaker 1: preview series. Maybe one of them got a little rattled tonight.
- 5:50Speaker 1: As First, we have aj Bluebaugh from the Houston Astros
- 5:54Speaker 1: made his debut today and it was four innings of
- 5:58Speaker 1: two earned runs. I think it was seven total runs.
- 6:02Speaker 1: Let me check that again. It was seven total runs,
- 6:04Speaker 1: so he kind of really worked through it, but had
- 6:07Speaker 1: six k's against a really good Detroit Tiger's lineup looked
- 6:10Speaker 1: pretty sharp, even though the actual kind of stat line
- 6:13Speaker 1: is blurred by that pretty just like brutal error in
- 6:19Speaker 1: unearned runs. We also had Noah Cameron debut tonight. They're
- 6:23Speaker 1: still playing down in Tampa, and his debut also looked
- 6:28Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean, he wasn't in the strike zone
- 6:30Speaker 1: very much, but I mean you can understand that with
- 6:32Speaker 1: the nerves. Cameron went six and a third, five walks,
- 6:35Speaker 1: three ks, but just one hit against the Tampa Bay
- 6:38Speaker 1: Rays in that George M. Steinberner field. Then the last
- 6:42Speaker 1: one not as great in Cincinnati, Chase Petty tonight got
- 6:45Speaker 1: lit up by the Cardinals, who I mean, they had
- 6:48Speaker 1: a heck of a day with their doubleheader. They pounded
- 6:50Speaker 1: Chase Petty for nine earned runs over two and a third,
- 6:53Speaker 1: seven hits, two walks, three k's. So out of those
- 6:58Speaker 1: three that I just rattled off the which one do
- 7:01Speaker 1: you think has probably the best prospects for twenty twenty
- 7:05Speaker 1: five going forward from a fantasy realm? And then maybe
- 7:08Speaker 1: kind of touch a little bit on what you like
- 7:09Speaker 1: in the profiles of the two that you don't pick.
- 7:13Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you know the guy that
- 7:16Speaker 2: I like the most this year and going forward has
- 7:19Speaker 2: to be Noah Cameron for the Royals. As I look
- 7:23Speaker 2: at the profile at what he did, and you called
- 7:25Speaker 2: it out like he struggled with control today, But that's
- 7:28Speaker 2: never been a problem for him, never been a problem
- 7:30Speaker 2: in the minor leagues. He's always been a guy that
- 7:33Speaker 2: keeps it around three K for nine and he absolutely
- 7:38Speaker 2: does a good job striking guys out. He's a ten
- 7:42Speaker 2: to eleven K for nine guy, keeps the ball on
- 7:44Speaker 2: the ground. You know, this year in triple A only
- 7:48Speaker 2: twenty twenties almost sixty percent of the time, but historically
- 7:51Speaker 2: it has been that low forties percent of the time.
- 7:53Speaker 2: So he he has a intriguing profile, and he does
- 7:59Speaker 2: have it's kind of four pitch mix, which which you'd
- 8:02Speaker 2: love to see, you know, from a losty perspective. He
- 8:05Speaker 2: is kind of a lighter thrower, which is what you
- 8:09Speaker 2: what you kind of expect with the guy that's gonna
- 8:10Speaker 2: throw four or five different pitches. So Petty, I think
- 8:14Speaker 2: is is the the second guy that I would look
- 8:16Speaker 2: at there that said, I'm you know, he has the
- 8:19Speaker 2: pedigree first rounder. I do get a little nervous about
- 8:23Speaker 2: that Cincinnati bandbox that he has to go play in
- 8:26Speaker 2: half the time, and his stuff doesn't seem to be
- 8:29Speaker 2: play up quite as well as as Cameron's has in
- 8:33Speaker 2: the in the past. I think that's gonna be something
- 8:35Speaker 2: that does ultimately hurt hurt him. And he he does
- 8:39Speaker 2: have a handful of pitches, but he generally is like
- 8:42Speaker 2: a fastball slider kind of guy. He's he's more of
- 8:46Speaker 2: a two pitch guy than really a deep arsenal guy.
- 8:50Speaker 2: So and then you know, you get to I'm not
- 8:53Speaker 2: even pronounce for a blue Bach here for the astros,
- 8:58Speaker 2: and I this this feels like the typical astro like
- 9:04Speaker 2: farmhand from a picture perspective. I don't know if you
- 9:07Speaker 2: feel that as well, where it's like a guy that's
- 9:09Speaker 2: got kind of a relatively a a strong arm. He's
- 9:14Speaker 2: in the kind of like mid nineties, he's got a
- 9:18Speaker 2: flyball profile, and he's a little wild like that just
- 9:22Speaker 2: seems to be the kind of thing with you know,
- 9:25Speaker 2: Spencer Orghetti coming up and a lot of other guys
- 9:27Speaker 2: that they've brought through, it just kind of feels like
- 9:29Speaker 2: they're not quite sure and they're kind of living on
- 9:32Speaker 2: the edge trying to get the most out of them.
- 9:34Speaker 2: So I'm taking Cameron here short term and long term.
- 9:39Speaker 2: I don't know that Cameron's going to stay up long
- 9:42Speaker 2: because it depends kind of what's going on Cold Reagan's
- 9:44Speaker 2: and how long he's actually out. And they haven't put
- 9:47Speaker 2: him on the injured list, you have to think he's
- 9:48Speaker 2: back before before too long. So that's where I'm out.
- 9:52Speaker 2: How about you? Are you got kind of the same picks?
- 9:55Speaker 2: Are you? Are you seeing something I'm not. It's a
- 9:58Speaker 2: it's a tough equation.
- 10:00Speaker 1: And I think between these three because if we just
- 10:03Speaker 1: went on peer skill without like the team situation around them, Actually,
- 10:07Speaker 1: I think blue Ball would be my first because generate
- 10:10Speaker 1: sixteen whifts today against Detroit. The stuff is really sharp.
- 10:14Speaker 1: It's a six pitch mix, kind of that classic Astros
- 10:19Speaker 1: pipeline of pitching development. I've been really into Ryan Gusto
- 10:23Speaker 1: for the same reasons recently. But it is a packed
- 10:28Speaker 1: rotation there. You have Spencer Araghedty coming back pretty soon.
- 10:32Speaker 1: Lance muc Kuhler's junior is still kind of like rolling
- 10:34Speaker 1: around in that rotation on the injured list. They're already
- 10:39Speaker 1: called up Blue Bot. It's the sixth man in that rotation.
- 10:43Speaker 1: You do wonder if Ronel Blanco might be dustined for
- 10:48Speaker 1: the bullpen here, given Wesnsky looks really good, Gusto looks
- 10:52Speaker 1: really good.
- 10:52Speaker 3: Like I said, blue Ball looks good, you obviously can't.
- 10:56Speaker 1: Hunter Brown is going to maybe win the cy Young,
- 10:58Speaker 1: you know, and so like if it wasn't for that,
- 11:01Speaker 1: Blueball would be my number one pick, But I think
- 11:03Speaker 1: it is Cameron, just like you had number two for me, because,
- 11:07Speaker 1: like I do, I am worried about Cole Reagan's actually
- 11:10Speaker 1: like I'm worried that it's something more significant. This is
- 11:13Speaker 1: a guy who's head to Tommy John surgeries. You worry
- 11:17Speaker 1: about kind of like the strain that that growing is
- 11:20Speaker 1: putting on the rest of his body. And it's just
- 11:23Speaker 1: not that impressive of a rotation on the back end
- 11:26Speaker 1: that like you're having to worry about Noah Cameron like
- 11:30Speaker 1: holding off like Michael Lorenzen could be put in the bullpen.
- 11:34Speaker 1: And on top of that, you also have Lugo and
- 11:36Speaker 1: Waka and Bubich who are either old or coming off
- 11:40Speaker 1: of a TJ and boobage, and so you could see
- 11:43Speaker 1: where like they might move to a six man rotation
- 11:45Speaker 1: to kind of keep people fresher, keep no Cameron around.
- 11:49Speaker 2: Petty.
- 11:49Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if you're in a really deeply great
- 11:52Speaker 1: intrigue there great picture, great situation too. But yeah, it's
- 11:59Speaker 1: probably my ranking would go. Like I said, if if
- 12:04Speaker 1: a skills a go blue ball Cameron Petty, if we're
- 12:07Speaker 1: actually just talking like rest of the season value, it
- 12:09Speaker 1: goes you foot flop, blue ball and Cameron.
- 12:12Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I did see the news that McColl
- 12:14Speaker 2: are supposed to be back this weekend. What that actually means,
- 12:17Speaker 2: it's a whole different discussion. Yes, so we will see.
- 12:21Speaker 2: But I think all these guys are interesting arms out
- 12:24Speaker 2: there that anybody's immediate pickup or anything like that. Definitely
- 12:27Speaker 2: guys kind of watch to see how things play.
- 12:30Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right, let's get into the next bit
- 12:33Speaker 1: of news, and it's gonna kick off our kind of
- 12:36Speaker 1: injury discussion. Here we have Logan Gilbert from the Seattle
- 12:39Speaker 1: Mariners going down with a flexure strain.
- 12:41Speaker 3: The fourth picture that was.
- 12:43Speaker 1: Kind of called up recently out of the minor leagues
- 12:45Speaker 1: and came up with some prospect pedigree. Is there in
- 12:48Speaker 1: Seattle Logan Evans, I think a tier below those three
- 12:51Speaker 1: guys we just talked about, even though honestly might have
- 12:54Speaker 1: the most opportunity given George Kirby.
- 12:57Speaker 3: Being out Gilbert being out.
- 13:00Speaker 1: But it is a much more strikeout, uh like, lacking
- 13:06Speaker 1: profile with a lot more contact than Logan Evans, and
- 13:09Speaker 1: you're just kind of relying on that Seattle ballpark to
- 13:11Speaker 1: kind of keep that that ball in the Ballyard, So
- 13:16Speaker 1: what do you make of this situation? This is pretty scary.
- 13:18Speaker 1: This this sets off some flashing lights on Logan Gilbert,
- 13:22Speaker 1: given that it is a flexer strain and maybe my
- 13:25Speaker 1: underselling Logan Evans for you.
- 13:27Speaker 2: I have no problem with your with your position on
- 13:30Speaker 2: Evans here. I think you're you're pretty much spot on there.
- 13:33Speaker 2: What I'm I'm kind of struggling with here with with
- 13:36Speaker 2: Gilbert is he's looked fantastic this season. There's no question
- 13:43Speaker 2: that he has been on. And even when even when
- 13:47Speaker 2: he came out of the game the other day he
- 13:49Speaker 2: had gone three inians, you know, three up, three down,
- 13:52Speaker 2: face total of nine guys, he was pumping up there
- 13:55Speaker 2: in the low nineties like always does. Control was no problem,
- 13:58Speaker 2: Like he's he's been on all season and there hasn't
- 14:01Speaker 2: been really a hint of any performance drop. And then
- 14:05Speaker 2: the reports you're like, oh, it's mild strains, you know,
- 14:08Speaker 2: some tightness, but like it's that ominous tightness and you
- 14:11Speaker 2: just don't know what that means. And I feel like
- 14:13Speaker 2: we're gonna have the same conversation we had about Bradish
- 14:16Speaker 2: and we just tried to do that again about for
- 14:21Speaker 2: the Cubs, why am I blanking on steel names Justin Steele.
- 14:25Speaker 2: Clearly I've just written them off, and so like, I
- 14:28Speaker 2: feel like that's the conversation we're about to go down again.
- 14:30Speaker 2: It's like, are you gonna lay with the guys? Like, ah,
- 14:32Speaker 2: I wait till they say something like it is ominous,
- 14:35Speaker 2: but man, Gilbert's looks so good that I I, this
- 14:39Speaker 2: is blasphemous to say, but I think I would be
- 14:42Speaker 2: actually trying to buy Gilbert right now. Okay, I want
- 14:45Speaker 2: to see it. I want to see if an owner
- 14:47Speaker 2: is is out. I want to see if an owner's
- 14:49Speaker 2: like I can't deal with this, I'm out. I'm selling
- 14:51Speaker 2: them on fifty cents on the dollar type thing, Like
- 14:53Speaker 2: that's a gamble I'm willing to take. Like Gilbert's looks
- 14:56Speaker 2: so good, so useful that if I'm giving up something
- 15:00Speaker 2: mid tier, you know, I'm maybe a third outfielder or
- 15:06Speaker 2: something like that, maybe a back end starting infielder. I
- 15:10Speaker 2: think it's a gamble we're taking because it's you can't
- 15:14Speaker 2: find a guy like Gilbert off the wire, and even
- 15:16Speaker 2: if he come, if he comes, if he's injured for
- 15:19Speaker 2: like three four weeks and he comes back to the
- 15:21Speaker 2: heelth real season, you hit a home run, if he's
- 15:23Speaker 2: it turns out he's out and it's out, you could
- 15:27Speaker 2: probably find you know, there's I hear there's a really
- 15:29Speaker 2: good waiver wire. Call him over a rass ball that
- 15:31Speaker 2: you can read to fill out those needs. So it
- 15:34Speaker 2: feels wrong to say that, but I think I'm looking
- 15:37Speaker 2: at this as a buying opportunity. If there's a desperate
- 15:41Speaker 2: manager out.
- 15:41Speaker 1: There, yeah, I think that's very It's not going to
- 15:44Speaker 1: hurt to check in on the price of Logan Gilbert
- 15:46Speaker 1: just to see where that manager's kind of head at.
- 15:48Speaker 1: It is going to be hard, I think considering it
- 15:50Speaker 1: was a two thirty seven era with a thirteen oh
- 15:54Speaker 1: five K nine over thirty and a third. I mean
- 15:58Speaker 1: that is cy Young level stuff. So it's going to
- 16:01Speaker 1: be I think a tough spot to bargain from. But
- 16:05Speaker 1: you got to wonder, you know where that Logan Gilbert
- 16:08Speaker 1: owner's head is at.
- 16:10Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all where it comes down to, is you know,
- 16:12Speaker 2: is this the guy that's that has lost like half
- 16:15Speaker 2: his rotation already and he's just desperate and like, I
- 16:18Speaker 2: can't I can't deal with this anymore. You might find
- 16:20Speaker 2: a bargain. You might also see the opposite where they're
- 16:23Speaker 2: not willing to deal at all at that point. Don't
- 16:26Speaker 2: chase it, don't chase it.
- 16:27Speaker 1: Okay, Well, let's get into our next picture injury, because
- 16:31Speaker 1: I think we might have a little bit slightly different
- 16:33Speaker 1: analysis here. That is the Dodgers Tyler Glass now going
- 16:37Speaker 1: down with right shoulder inflammation. You want to talk about
- 16:41Speaker 1: ominous injuries, that is up there for sure. So this
- 16:45Speaker 1: is just kind of adding to the long list of
- 16:47Speaker 1: injuries that glassnow has had, not only his career but
- 16:49Speaker 1: with the Dodgers in terms of elbow soreness, ended last
- 16:53Speaker 1: year on the elbow, timidonitis, coming off of Tommy John surgery,
- 16:56Speaker 1: had back issues, and now it's in his shoulder. So
- 17:01Speaker 1: this scares the living daylights out of me.
- 17:04Speaker 3: What about you?
- 17:06Speaker 2: We can move on. I'm not really don't need to
- 17:09Speaker 2: don't need to talk about it. It's it's a pretty
- 17:12Speaker 2: easy discussion here. I'm out fully young Glass now. I
- 17:16Speaker 2: get the skills are there, I get that, But that's
- 17:18Speaker 2: the same conversation every year. He is such a talented pitcher,
- 17:24Speaker 2: but he cannot stay healthy. He will not be healthy,
- 17:27Speaker 2: and you're fooling yourself if you think it is. He
- 17:29Speaker 2: has a career high of one hundred and thirty four
- 17:30Speaker 2: innings last year. That's a career high and he only
- 17:34Speaker 2: made twenty two starts. And he's only you know, he's
- 17:38Speaker 2: been in the league since twenty sixteen. I want you
- 17:42Speaker 2: to guess the number of seasons less you have it
- 17:44Speaker 2: pulled up here, how many seasons has he pitched more
- 17:47Speaker 2: fifteen games or more in a season?
- 17:49Speaker 3: Fifteen games?
- 17:51Speaker 2: I mean, that's so that's where sorry games games started
- 17:55Speaker 2: because he'd have one season where he was playing in
- 17:57Speaker 2: the bullpen. But like, he's had ten major league seasons,
- 18:01Speaker 2: how many he has had the least fifteen starts? Three twice? Wow,
- 18:10Speaker 2: last two seasons he's had twenty one and twenty two
- 18:13Speaker 2: starts in those seasons. Otherwise he had he's been thirteen, eleven, twelve, eleven,
- 18:18Speaker 2: fourteen to two. Like, I guess maybe we can say
- 18:21Speaker 2: he was healthy the whole twenty twenty COVID season, So
- 18:25Speaker 2: that's his only complete season. He had fifty seven innings
- 18:27Speaker 2: that year.
- 18:28Speaker 1: But you know he would have gotten hurt if it
- 18:30Speaker 1: was in a sixty game season.
- 18:32Speaker 2: Yeah. The only reason it wasn't hurt was he was
- 18:34Speaker 2: in a bubble, so so I yeah, I said, we
- 18:38Speaker 2: couldnt even talk about it here. I'm just pontificating on it.
- 18:40Speaker 2: But yeah, glass now he's he's literally made of glass.
- 18:45Speaker 2: It's not worth the effort at the time, even expanding
- 18:49Speaker 2: the calories to go down this route. He's undraftable to
- 18:53Speaker 2: me unless he is free.
- 18:55Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, in real life,
- 18:58Speaker 1: the Dodgers are going to be fine. They had Tony
- 18:59Speaker 1: Console come back today, and.
- 19:01Speaker 2: The only team that can be fine with this because
- 19:03Speaker 2: like they're like, hey, we get five starts out of them,
- 19:05Speaker 2: like we'll take it. Like, what's five million dollars to start?
- 19:08Speaker 1: Yeah, it kind of makes your jaw drop looking at
- 19:11Speaker 1: all these injured pitchers. You know, you got Kershaw's on
- 19:13Speaker 1: a rehab assignment, Blake Snell, I mean he's kind of
- 19:17Speaker 1: up in the air with the shoulder. But then you've
- 19:19Speaker 1: just got you know, just sup Robleski, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller,
- 19:23Speaker 1: all sorts of players just kind of hanging out. And
- 19:25Speaker 1: that's not even like they could just totally start doing
- 19:28Speaker 1: bullpen games here and there. So the Dodgers are gona
- 19:30Speaker 1: keep on humming. But Tony Gunslin looked pretty sharp. I
- 19:33Speaker 1: liked the control today. Still needs maybe another tick or
- 19:36Speaker 1: two on that fastball to come back, but I thought
- 19:38Speaker 1: it looked pretty solid. Helps play pitching against the Marlins. Okay,
- 19:42Speaker 1: let's move on to our next injury. We're gonna go
- 19:45Speaker 1: across the nation to Baltimore, and we've got Jordan Westburg
- 19:50Speaker 1: hitting the injured list there with a hamstring injury. It's
- 19:54Speaker 1: been a tough start to the season for Westburg. It's
- 19:57Speaker 1: slashing two seventeen, two sixty five, three ninety one over
- 20:00Speaker 1: twenty three games.
- 20:01Speaker 3: This was a guy who I.
- 20:02Speaker 1: Mean, there was a lot of buzz coming into the
- 20:05Speaker 1: season given that last year. Part of it was that
- 20:08Speaker 1: I think it fell through the cracks that he had
- 20:10Speaker 1: that broken hand at the end of the year and
- 20:12Speaker 1: it kind of muted his overall stat line. And if
- 20:14Speaker 1: you just kind of projected that over the rest of
- 20:16Speaker 1: the season that he had missed with that hand, he
- 20:19Speaker 1: would have put up a pretty monster season for where
- 20:24Speaker 1: he was in his career. But you're the top one
- 20:26Speaker 1: hundred hitter guy here. What has been going on with
- 20:30Speaker 1: Jordan Westbrook? Do you think he's been playing injured that
- 20:32Speaker 1: has caused that bad slash line or is there something
- 20:35Speaker 1: else happening in the profile.
- 20:37Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean at the end of the day, like
- 20:39Speaker 2: his quality of contacts down a little bit. He has
- 20:42Speaker 2: had some bad luck, but he's he's not that different
- 20:48Speaker 2: a guy than what we saw last year. He look
- 20:50Speaker 2: across the profile, there isn't much different like he is.
- 20:57Speaker 2: His contact rates are a little down, like the pitch
- 21:00Speaker 2: selections a little off right now. But if you look
- 21:04Speaker 2: at Quale, like I said that the actual like plate approach,
- 21:09Speaker 2: he's not like swinging a whole lot less or more.
- 21:12Speaker 2: You know, we're not seeing a whole lot from like
- 21:14Speaker 2: a hard hit rate is just slightly down. His baby
- 21:17Speaker 2: up is down sixty points, which is hurting him. His
- 21:20Speaker 2: walk rate, his k rate, they're all relatively what they
- 21:22Speaker 2: were last year. And you know, if you actually like
- 21:26Speaker 2: look at the stats themselves, like twenty three games, he's
- 21:29Speaker 2: hit four homers. You know he hasn't stolen a basement
- 21:33Speaker 2: when at six last year, So he's he's been doing okay.
- 21:37Speaker 2: Like I there's nothing about the profile that actually overly
- 21:40Speaker 2: warns me or concerns me, Like even the sprint speed.
- 21:45Speaker 2: If you must have an upright now do you know
- 21:46Speaker 2: what Westburg's sprint speed is? No, they just just take
- 21:50Speaker 2: a guess.
- 21:51Speaker 1: On the percentile I'm going to get on the percentile
- 21:54Speaker 1: seventy seven ninety four. Wow, okay, yeah, Like you just
- 22:00Speaker 1: look across the board. I mean there is that the
- 22:02Speaker 1: league seems to be adjusting. They're giving him like a
- 22:05Speaker 1: heavy heavy dose of breaking or of fastballs, and they're
- 22:09Speaker 1: training off breaking balls, which I think he did struggle
- 22:12Speaker 1: a little bit more with the fastball to a degree
- 22:17Speaker 1: last year, but not a whole lot. He is struggling
- 22:19Speaker 1: with it more this year, and so they've kind of adjusted.
- 22:22Speaker 1: But overall last year he hit two seventy five and
- 22:25Speaker 1: hit fifteen of his homers off fastballs. Like, I'm just
- 22:28Speaker 1: not not finding a big problem here. I actually think
- 22:31Speaker 1: he's a buying opportunity at this point. Or am I
- 22:34Speaker 1: dropping him down the rankings? Absolutely, he's hurt. Performance has
- 22:37Speaker 1: been down a little bit. He hasn't just come out blazing.
- 22:40Speaker 1: But I was very high on the offseason, and I'm
- 22:43Speaker 1: just try I've been trying to find what the problem is,
- 22:46Speaker 1: and I just don't see something significantly different than what
- 22:49Speaker 1: was last year.
- 22:50Speaker 2: So why let one month and an injury say that,
- 22:54Speaker 2: you know it's you know, he's really fallen off the
- 22:59Speaker 2: face of the earth. I'm I'm still very happy to
- 23:02Speaker 2: have Jordan Westburg on my team, and if I can
- 23:05Speaker 2: acquire him somewhere, I likely will.
- 23:07Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 23:07Speaker 1: No, I mean when you were running through that profile,
- 23:10Speaker 1: it sounded like you were going to start pushing the
- 23:13Speaker 1: buy button, because, like, I think the other thing that
- 23:16Speaker 1: kind of points to it being a good buying opportunity
- 23:19Speaker 1: is that when he was placed on the injured list
- 23:23Speaker 1: in Westburg Stead, the Orioles called up Emmanuel Rivera from
- 23:27Speaker 1: Triple A as opposed to Kobe Mayo. I think that
- 23:29Speaker 1: tells you that the Orioles recognize that this is a
- 23:33Speaker 1: true ten day fourteen day il stent where he just
- 23:36Speaker 1: needs a little bit of rest and rehab on that hammy.
- 23:39Speaker 1: And then it's possible that Westburg just kind of hits
- 23:41Speaker 1: the ground running from there, because it does stick out
- 23:44Speaker 1: like a sore thumb that the babbit is what has
- 23:48Speaker 1: not kind of caught up to the rest of the profile.
- 23:50Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I said, the well, he's not as hard
- 23:53Speaker 2: X plus he's not as like it's down a little
- 23:56Speaker 2: bit compared to last year. But I mean, yeah, there's
- 24:00Speaker 2: nothing that significantly changed in how he's approached the game,
- 24:03Speaker 2: and so to me, it's just he's a few small
- 24:05Speaker 2: adjustments away for just getting comfortable, and maybe he's been
- 24:08Speaker 2: playing hurt a little bit, you know, don't I don't
- 24:11Speaker 2: care the reason I'm still lying.
- 24:13Speaker 1: Okay, makes sense, all right, let's move on to I
- 24:17Speaker 1: don't know if this isn't necessarily gonna have a lot
- 24:19Speaker 1: of fantasy impact out there, but I just kind of
- 24:21Speaker 1: wanted to get your take on Jared Kellnick in Atlanta,
- 24:24Speaker 1: who was optioned down this week because the Braves could
- 24:27Speaker 1: not pass upon the opportunity to add Eddie Rosario to
- 24:31Speaker 1: their roster after he was cut in La. Any interest
- 24:37Speaker 1: in Kellenick or do you ever see him being able
- 24:40Speaker 1: to be able to like put it together in any
- 24:44Speaker 1: form or fashion. We're looking at a guy who you know,
- 24:47Speaker 1: came over from Seattle or from New York to Seattle
- 24:52Speaker 1: and the Edwin Diaz trade then was subsequently shipped out
- 24:56Speaker 1: from there, and you know, it's been a real run go.
- 25:00Speaker 1: There have been stretches where Kelenick looks like the prospect
- 25:03Speaker 1: that he was set up to be. But he's gonna
- 25:05Speaker 1: be turning twenty six this year. Things are the runway
- 25:10Speaker 1: is kind of running out, and the book is out
- 25:12Speaker 1: on Kelnick, It's not like we've seen significant changes in
- 25:14Speaker 1: his profile. So do you think that there is a
- 25:17Speaker 1: possibility he could make those tweaks and like you want
- 25:21Speaker 1: any sort of shares of him in super deep dynasty
- 25:24Speaker 1: leagues at this point?
- 25:25Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's there's always the possibility, Like, you know,
- 25:29Speaker 2: he he's he's just twenty five and he's been in
- 25:33Speaker 2: the majors for five years. I think you forget how
- 25:36Speaker 2: young he was and was called up. And to your point,
- 25:40Speaker 2: though he hasn't made big adjustments, he hasn't seemed to
- 25:42Speaker 2: figure it out, like he's a pure platoon bat at
- 25:45Speaker 2: this point, So like the opportunities continue to drop off.
- 25:49Speaker 2: Would I be shocked to see him like finally figure
- 25:52Speaker 2: it out and just kind of go a blaze, like
- 25:54Speaker 2: kind of like Victor Roeblis getting over the Mariners and
- 25:56Speaker 2: kind of making something's happened. I wouldn't be totally shocked,
- 26:01Speaker 2: but I'm okay if that happens, I have your shares
- 26:03Speaker 2: of it, Like it's not worth I think that the
- 26:05Speaker 2: opportunity costs to really invest in him at this point,
- 26:08Speaker 2: and so I'm I'm out of Kellenic. I think we've
- 26:11Speaker 2: we've kind of run that well dry. And then, you know,
- 26:14Speaker 2: from an Eddie Rosario standpoint, the only thing that I'm
- 26:17Speaker 2: interested in is how many times he's been a brave
- 26:19Speaker 2: at this point, because I'm just curious about the trivia
- 26:22Speaker 2: from an acculate grid perspective, and so nothing from a
- 26:29Speaker 2: fantasy perspective, because edter Rozzari is the kind of guy
- 26:32Speaker 2: that he's gonna get hot for a week, you're gonna
- 26:34Speaker 2: pick him up and he's be cold for the next month,
- 26:36Speaker 2: and you're gonna be questioning life choices. So not not
- 26:40Speaker 2: much here. It's just interesting news. It's unfortunate see Kellennick
- 26:45Speaker 2: being sent down. You almost have to wonder. I'd have
- 26:48Speaker 2: to look at, you know, from a like arbitration perspective
- 26:51Speaker 2: and things like that, where he's sitting from an from
- 26:55Speaker 2: like a salary escalation perspective, because maybe they're wanting to
- 27:00Speaker 2: even around is that fourth fifth outfielder, because I think
- 27:02Speaker 2: that's really the career he's going to kind of carve
- 27:03Speaker 2: out at this point. Is he's a good enough outfielder
- 27:06Speaker 2: and he's gotten good enough pop that he's a really
- 27:08Speaker 2: interesting bench piece. That's a lot more can be said
- 27:12Speaker 2: for a lot of guys. So I think, congratulations, Jared Kelnick,
- 27:15Speaker 2: you made something not what you were going for.
- 27:18Speaker 1: Yeah, and rip to all those Jared Kelnick PCs out there,
- 27:22Speaker 1: because I know there are quite a few. And that
- 27:24Speaker 1: was an expensive PC to put together at one point,
- 27:27Speaker 1: especially when he was in that net system. Not an
- 27:30Speaker 1: easy player to obtain.
- 27:31Speaker 2: So I invested a little bit in that PC and
- 27:35Speaker 2: it did not pay off wisely.
- 27:37Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, Well, speaking of cards, we do have one
- 27:41Speaker 1: big piece of news that came out in anticipation of
- 27:45Speaker 1: twenty twenty five Bowmen, which will be coming out next week.
- 27:48Speaker 1: Like I said, we'll probably overview it next week and
- 27:50Speaker 1: get into more depth on the checklist and details from there.
- 27:54Speaker 1: But this is a fascinating turn I think in the hobby.
- 27:59Speaker 1: Like I think it's it's a pretty similar moment in
- 28:02Speaker 1: terms of like what it could portend for the rest
- 28:05Speaker 1: of where the hobby goes. If not, I mean also
- 28:08Speaker 1: I'm fascinated to see kind of where it goes over
- 28:10Speaker 1: the next year or three and a half years. If
- 28:14Speaker 1: you're catching my drift as this economy is kind of
- 28:17Speaker 1: going down the tubes and people are not going to
- 28:19Speaker 1: have the disposable income collect cards that they once did.
- 28:23Speaker 1: But with twenty twenty five Bowmen, Fanatics has announced that
- 28:27Speaker 1: they're putting together what is called a Bowman Red Rookie Redemption,
- 28:33Speaker 1: where there's a checklist of rookies within the set that
- 28:38Speaker 1: have special cards that are refractors with a red RC
- 28:43Speaker 1: logo on them. And what I think Fanatics and Tops
- 28:47Speaker 1: have found a lot of success and recently has been
- 28:49Speaker 1: the Tops Chrome buyback, so they're trying to find different
- 28:52Speaker 1: ways to drum up that type of excitement. So that's
- 28:54Speaker 1: what they're doing here. If you pull one of these cards,
- 28:57Speaker 1: they're going to be short printed and the the details
- 29:01Speaker 1: on it are a little bit sketch, I will say
- 29:02Speaker 1: at this point in terms of like print runs and
- 29:05Speaker 1: odds and stuff like that, where I don't know if
- 29:07Speaker 1: we actually have a great idea of like where these
- 29:10Speaker 1: are embedded as well, Like I don't know if they're
- 29:13Speaker 1: more so in jumbos or like breakers sort of like
- 29:16Speaker 1: geared boxes. But the gist of this program is that
- 29:20Speaker 1: if you pull one, you can redeem it for one
- 29:22Speaker 1: hundred dollars in finance cash like right away, and then
- 29:25Speaker 1: from there it's gonna start escalating to where you know,
- 29:29Speaker 1: they're trying to mimic a little bit of like what's
- 29:31Speaker 1: happening with the MVP redemption. You know, you go up
- 29:35Speaker 1: to from there, like if they win an MVP or
- 29:38Speaker 1: a Rookie of the Year, you get a certain amount
- 29:41Speaker 1: of money, and then two MVPs or Cy Young's and
- 29:44Speaker 1: then three, and then from there even Hall of Fame,
- 29:48Speaker 1: So you can get a thousand bucks if you hold
- 29:50Speaker 1: it all the way through Hall of Fame, which one
- 29:55Speaker 1: time value of money. That's awful, just pure awful. So
- 29:58Speaker 1: if you do, if you are list litening to this
- 30:00Speaker 1: and you pull one of these, turn it in right away.
- 30:05Speaker 1: Like I mean, maybe you can hold a couple of
- 30:07Speaker 1: these guys for like trying to get the Rookie of
- 30:09Speaker 1: the Year stuff, but like in terms of any of
- 30:11Speaker 1: these future ones, good luck. Like I don't know if
- 30:14Speaker 1: any of these guys are Aaron Judge or Shoho Tani,
- 30:17Speaker 1: but I want to see, like what do you think
- 30:20Speaker 1: about this, because, like I said, this is a pretty
- 30:21Speaker 1: big turn in the industry in terms of having a
- 30:25Speaker 1: guaranteed value if one of these guys hits the Hall
- 30:28Speaker 1: of Fame and so like, it's not a great investment,
- 30:33Speaker 1: like I said, from time value money, but it's a
- 30:36Speaker 1: fun one.
- 30:37Speaker 2: It is. And when it when it first came out
- 30:40Speaker 2: a whole day ago and I was kind of watching
- 30:43Speaker 2: them looking at it, I was actually really intrigued with it,
- 30:44Speaker 2: and I was gonna give tops a little bit of
- 30:47Speaker 2: kudos for the creativity. Continue to find different ways to
- 30:52Speaker 2: to to provide value. And even from a pure business perspective,
- 30:56Speaker 2: using fanatics cash like they're they're providing more value than
- 31:00Speaker 2: they actually are out laying from a business perspective, because
- 31:03Speaker 2: it's coming back into the end of the same pipeline, right,
- 31:05Speaker 2: they're just reallocating it. But I think that the big
- 31:10Speaker 2: thing here is, as I read about today, there's a
- 31:13Speaker 2: catch and I don't know if you've read the fine
- 31:16Speaker 2: print that have kind of stuck out, which is the
- 31:19Speaker 2: only way you actually get these is they have to
- 31:22Speaker 2: win the Rookie of the Year. They build upon each other.
- 31:26Speaker 2: They're not. I didn't know that they are. And so
- 31:29Speaker 2: if the red Rookie card label player wins the Rookie Year,
- 31:35Speaker 2: then they unlock the opportunity to get the MVP or
- 31:38Speaker 2: Cy Young payoffs. Only way you can get the Hall
- 31:42Speaker 2: of Fame one is if they've won the Rookie of
- 31:44Speaker 2: the Year and an MVP or Cy Young and they
- 31:48Speaker 2: are inducted in the first five years of the Hall
- 31:50Speaker 2: of Fame voting. So it has to be the perfect storm.
- 31:53Speaker 2: So Rookie of the Year that is two guys a year,
- 31:57Speaker 2: so only two guys. It's kind of like the MVP redemptions.
- 32:03Speaker 2: At this point, only two guys are even in the
- 32:05Speaker 2: conversation to be held long term. Every other one of
- 32:09Speaker 2: these has zero value because they did not win Rookie
- 32:12Speaker 2: of the Year, and then you have to assume that
- 32:16Speaker 2: that guy continues his career and turns into an MVP
- 32:19Speaker 2: and a Psyche Young and like so, I think you're
- 32:23Speaker 2: right in season. Unless there there are like the MVP
- 32:27Speaker 2: redemption where they are the clear leader in the clubhouse.
- 32:30Speaker 2: You are selling this right away. You are not holding
- 32:32Speaker 2: onto this. If they appear to be the clear leader
- 32:35Speaker 2: of the clubhouse, then I think you can hold these
- 32:38Speaker 2: and their value is gonna increase, probably above the redemption
- 32:42Speaker 2: value in that off season because the future potential that
- 32:45Speaker 2: they now unlock this, but I think it's going to
- 32:48Speaker 2: be more of a bad and intrigue that's gonna play
- 32:52Speaker 2: than anything else. So I'm actually I'm really disappointed that
- 32:55Speaker 2: they put all these red tape around it. Red tape
- 32:58Speaker 2: around the red logo is not the way to go.
- 33:00Speaker 2: So Tops, you tried. You had a good idea, and
- 33:02Speaker 2: then you had to get old fancy dancing with us
- 33:05Speaker 2: behind the scenes and put buying print on the thing
- 33:08Speaker 2: that nobody was gonna read because it wasn't included in
- 33:11Speaker 2: your advertising.
- 33:13Speaker 1: That's a that I'm glad that you caught that because
- 33:15Speaker 1: I didn't. I was not really aware of that, so
- 33:17Speaker 1: like you certainly picked that up. I do also wonder
- 33:21Speaker 1: if they're going to be putting this into just overall
- 33:27Speaker 1: like Bowman Chrome going forward too, because like the chances
- 33:32Speaker 1: that the two Rookie of the Years come from this
- 33:35Speaker 1: limited set of players is also pretty low. Like Christian
- 33:38Speaker 1: Campbell's not in this list, you think maybe he might
- 33:42Speaker 1: appear in Bowman Chrome, but that would also slay him
- 33:44Speaker 1: for like TOPS update and going from there, and like
- 33:48Speaker 1: who knows, Like I can guarantee you though, Joe Kenzie
- 33:52Speaker 1: Noelle not going to be a Hall of Famer I can,
- 33:56Speaker 1: so like it is like I don't know, like it
- 34:00Speaker 1: it's trying to like I don't know if they're trying
- 34:02Speaker 1: to dissuade people from trying to put in that hundred
- 34:06Speaker 1: dollars ticket right away, because like I just don't see
- 34:09Speaker 1: how the math, ever would work out to not immediately
- 34:12Speaker 1: turn this in for thee hundred dollars once you get it.
- 34:14Speaker 1: And two, like it is kind of scummy that like
- 34:17Speaker 1: it's just in Fanatics cash that like you have to
- 34:21Speaker 1: go buy overpriced products back from Fanatics. This kind of
- 34:26Speaker 1: actually maybe they also cook this up in relation to
- 34:29Speaker 1: what I was talking about with some of those economic
- 34:32Speaker 1: and tariff walls that are probably about to absolutely destroy
- 34:35Speaker 1: Fanatics and all of the junk that they have on
- 34:37Speaker 1: their websites. That like, there's just a lot of weird
- 34:42Speaker 1: factors that have gone into this, like you said, where
- 34:45Speaker 1: it seems really croative fun on the surface, but like
- 34:48Speaker 1: we start peeling back the layers of it, it's just
- 34:51Speaker 1: kind of really gross and in terms of like what
- 34:56Speaker 1: the Fanatics has done with tops and what it's turned
- 34:59Speaker 1: the baseball card collecting industry into, and on top of
- 35:03Speaker 1: it all like really bold of fanatics to think that
- 35:07Speaker 1: they're going to be in business in twenty twenty five
- 35:09Speaker 1: years when any of these dudes might get inducted in
- 35:10Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame.
- 35:12Speaker 2: Yeah, very true. Like that is the one thing the
- 35:14Speaker 2: guys like they came up with this as like I'm
- 35:16Speaker 2: gonna be retired by this time in like you can't
- 35:19Speaker 2: prove me wrong.
- 35:22Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 35:23Speaker 1: Yeah, this thousand dollars is somebody else's problem that you know,
- 35:26Speaker 1: one person held onto this red Rookie redemption card.
- 35:29Speaker 2: Yeah, we don't know the print runs. We don't even
- 35:31Speaker 2: know the print runs, yeah, exactly, things like is there
- 35:34Speaker 2: like three of them? Is there a three thousand? Like yeah, well,
- 35:37Speaker 2: what's what's actually happening here? We don't truly.
- 35:39Speaker 1: Know, yes, And it's all gonna be just like blown
- 35:43Speaker 1: up when Cameron Meisner wins the twenty twenty five AL
- 35:46Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year and isn't even going to be
- 35:48Speaker 1: in any TOPS products this year pretty much. Okay, Well,
- 35:52Speaker 1: we do have the updated calendar in those show notes.
- 35:55Speaker 1: You have new TOPS releases coming out, so check that out.
- 35:59Speaker 1: Like I said, the big one coming up is May seventh,
- 36:01Speaker 1: next week with twenty twenty five Bowmen as we're speaking
- 36:05Speaker 1: on April thirtieth. Tops Chrome Black twenty twenty five also
- 36:08Speaker 1: drops a pretty fun set, but one of those kind
- 36:11Speaker 1: of limited sets where you spend one hundred and eighty
- 36:14Speaker 1: bucks and get four cards and hope that you hit
- 36:16Speaker 1: a good auto. So nothing too fascinating from what's been
- 36:21Speaker 1: in Tops Chrome Black from previous years. And like I said,
- 36:24Speaker 1: we'll be doing twenty twenty five Bowman Overview next week
- 36:27Speaker 1: along maybe we might not people do Bowman and the
- 36:31Speaker 1: Player of the Month, but we'll figure that out when
- 36:33Speaker 1: we take this short break, and we'll be back to
- 36:36Speaker 1: talk about where we've missed coming into the twenty twenty
- 36:39Speaker 1: five season. So stick around, all right, Welcome back everybody.
- 36:58Speaker 1: So we are going to get into some discussion on
- 37:00Speaker 1: where we might have gotten things wrong coming into twenty
- 37:03Speaker 1: twenty five, especially given that we can start doing a
- 37:08Speaker 1: little bit of analysis on what our kind of approaches
- 37:11Speaker 1: we're going into draft season, seeing the changes that players
- 37:15Speaker 1: have made directly over this past month of action that
- 37:18Speaker 1: we've had and be able to kind of like line
- 37:20Speaker 1: it up with what our priors were readjust those priors
- 37:24Speaker 1: and kind of start configuring what we're going to be
- 37:27Speaker 1: doing going into even twenty twenty six, so if not
- 37:30Speaker 1: for the rest of this year. The one thing that
- 37:33Speaker 1: we both discussed that it's been just an absolute crap
- 37:38Speaker 1: like show just trying to figure it all out going
- 37:42Speaker 1: into this year has been closers and saves, and so
- 37:46Speaker 1: I don't know if I've got actually a good kind
- 37:49Speaker 1: of analysis on that that I don't know if you
- 37:51Speaker 1: have from this season so far. That like I think
- 37:54Speaker 1: it's a part of like, as teams get smarter and
- 37:57Speaker 1: are relying less and less on one closer, it's just
- 38:00Speaker 1: gonna become harder and harder to kind of pluck saves
- 38:03Speaker 1: out of the player pool. And on top of it too,
- 38:05Speaker 1: you're given just all the variation in injuries and your
- 38:09Speaker 1: your performance in small sample sizes, and it's it's tough that,
- 38:13Speaker 1: like I mean, you can't not invest in closers and
- 38:16Speaker 1: saves in roto leagues, but you also don't want to,
- 38:19Speaker 1: and so it's kind of like we know you're gonna lose.
- 38:23Speaker 1: It's a little bit it does create like a game
- 38:26Speaker 1: of chance, where like I mean, it's just kind of
- 38:28Speaker 1: like playing poker where you know you're gonna kind of
- 38:30Speaker 1: draw bad hands here and there and you can't do
- 38:33Speaker 1: anything about It's how you kind of are able to
- 38:35Speaker 1: play with it. What do you think is there is
- 38:37Speaker 1: that maybe too nonchalant about closers and saves or is
- 38:41Speaker 1: there something you can see?
- 38:43Speaker 2: I think it's it's right. I mean it kinda is
- 38:45Speaker 2: like the the old Stars and Scrubs perspective, Like I
- 38:47Speaker 2: think you just have to make a call at this
- 38:49Speaker 2: point early in the in the season, like in the
- 38:51Speaker 2: draft season, like are you gonna go all in and
- 38:53Speaker 2: try to get like two guys that are like cream
- 38:57Speaker 2: of the crop and you feel really really confident in
- 38:59Speaker 2: them because their profile because if you gave in the
- 39:01Speaker 2: season picked up like a Robert Suarez Andrews Munio's or
- 39:05Speaker 2: you know, any of those guys, like you feel pretty good.
- 39:07Speaker 2: But you could have also done the same thing with
- 39:09Speaker 2: Devin Williams and really regretted it. So like it's it
- 39:12Speaker 2: is like you kind of have to make the choice
- 39:14Speaker 2: of making am I gonna invest in that? Or am
- 39:16Speaker 2: I gonna? Am I okay to play the game and
- 39:20Speaker 2: roll the dice like and I think that's the call
- 39:22Speaker 2: you're making and you just have to pick one and
- 39:25Speaker 2: go with it. And I I think at this point,
- 39:27Speaker 2: I'm more on the on the side of like roll
- 39:29Speaker 2: the dice, Like, Hey, I'm gonna go after talent, and
- 39:32Speaker 2: I'm going to go after the guys that I hope
- 39:35Speaker 2: become closers and hope for the best things are gonna change,
- 39:39Speaker 2: and I'd much rather invest my draft capital elsewhere because
- 39:44Speaker 2: that could be a complete zero in like three weeks. Again.
- 39:48Speaker 2: Devin Williams, I actually traded from as a keeper in
- 39:50Speaker 2: a league UH this year, and I'm I'm only keeping
- 39:53Speaker 2: eye bench at this point because of just pure pride,
- 39:56Speaker 2: and it's it's really unfortunate. I was looking at some
- 39:59Speaker 2: of our picks in the off season and the only
- 40:01Speaker 2: things I did with closure was sell them. Like we
- 40:04Speaker 2: didn't there was no like buy this closures, just sell
- 40:07Speaker 2: all these closures. And I feel like that's kind of
- 40:09Speaker 2: how we've landed this point feels worse than has in
- 40:12Speaker 2: the past. I don't know this is gonna get better
- 40:14Speaker 2: in the future.
- 40:15Speaker 1: Yeah, And that is a little bit of like indicative too,
- 40:18Speaker 1: of like the market of like dictates the prices on
- 40:21Speaker 1: closers and saves, and you've got to play along to
- 40:23Speaker 1: people to like keep pace that it's never a logical decision,
- 40:28Speaker 1: but you have to do it to be able to
- 40:31Speaker 1: stay competitive and saves at the end of the day.
- 40:33Speaker 1: So it's just until you get into if you do
- 40:37Speaker 1: get in a league like I think sometimes we've gotten
- 40:39Speaker 1: into leagues where this happens every once in a while
- 40:42Speaker 1: in our Autito league, where like the saves market just
- 40:44Speaker 1: kind of really mellows out and gets to the right
- 40:47Speaker 1: value point.
- 40:48Speaker 3: And if you find that.
- 40:50Speaker 1: Like wow, what a what a great little kind of
- 40:52Speaker 1: like you in United Nations league that you guys all
- 40:56Speaker 1: agreed to have and not chase closers and saves. But
- 41:00Speaker 1: but until that happens across the board, it's there's always
- 41:03Speaker 1: going to be irrationality to it.
- 41:05Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely. I just bought David Bednar and our
- 41:08Speaker 2: fab bitting for like twelve dollars, which was like double
- 41:11Speaker 2: his draft day calls or something like it, and it's
- 41:14Speaker 2: because he had one save. Like it's it's irrational.
- 41:17Speaker 3: At time times exactly.
- 41:18Speaker 1: Okay, Well, let's get into some players and just other
- 41:22Speaker 1: kind of points where we might have missed where we've
- 41:25Speaker 1: got a little bit better sense of kind of what's
- 41:27Speaker 1: going on. So I'm gonna kick this off because this
- 41:29Speaker 1: is the player that really kind of intrigued me for
- 41:32Speaker 1: this topic out the bat, because I sold them real
- 41:35Speaker 1: hard when we were doing our Ale East preview. That
- 41:37Speaker 1: is Marlin's picture Max Meyer, who until his start on
- 41:42Speaker 1: just a couple of days ago on the twenty seventh
- 41:44Speaker 1: against apparently the extremely mighty and unstoppable Seattle Mariner's offense.
- 41:50Speaker 1: I don't know where that came from, but so like
- 41:53Speaker 1: you kind of actually give them a little bit of
- 41:55Speaker 1: a pass for that performance. Max Meyer was a top
- 41:59Speaker 1: five picture I think on our player Raider I don't
- 42:01Speaker 1: exactly remember, certainly top ten, especially after the game where
- 42:04Speaker 1: he put up the fourteen k's six shutout innings with
- 42:07Speaker 1: no walks against Cincinnati, and mostly like I think this
- 42:12Speaker 1: is something that I'm learning from going forward is that,
- 42:15Speaker 1: like what he didn't like about Maximyer's profile was he's
- 42:18Speaker 1: kind of a short king, like he's only like six
- 42:21Speaker 1: feet tall. But what he's actually done is you can
- 42:24Speaker 1: see it right away in his Savant page compared twenty
- 42:27Speaker 1: twenty five to twenty twenty four, he's dropped his arm
- 42:30Speaker 1: angle and Randy Rodriguez from the Giants has done this too,
- 42:34Speaker 1: it's turned him into a much better picture out in
- 42:35Speaker 1: San Francisco. Is that if you're shorter, what people, what
- 42:39Speaker 1: guys are actually doing now are dropping the armsot a
- 42:42Speaker 1: little bit just to like it's a funky, funky angle
- 42:45Speaker 1: when it's coming in, and I think batters aren't used
- 42:48Speaker 1: to it, and I don't know if they can adjust
- 42:50Speaker 1: very easily because it's so different from you know, the
- 42:54Speaker 1: classic six foot six dude who is just looks like
- 42:58Speaker 1: a condor on the on the mound thrown to you
- 43:00Speaker 1: that Meyer has mixed it up for that and also
- 43:04Speaker 1: has featured a better arsenal. You know, he's added a
- 43:08Speaker 1: sinker to the arsenal and you can see it right
- 43:10Speaker 1: away on Savant, where like the pitch mix is working
- 43:13Speaker 1: much better. So I think this is something what I'm
- 43:16Speaker 1: learning from this is like one Max Meyer was a
- 43:19Speaker 1: pretty highly touted prospect, you know, number three overall pick
- 43:23Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, always had lots of great prospect grades
- 43:27Speaker 1: on him.
- 43:28Speaker 3: That like it.
- 43:29Speaker 1: Gasha goes a little bit back to like maybe the
- 43:32Speaker 1: opposite of kell Nick, where Joey Dell is in this
- 43:34Speaker 1: boat for me too, where I'm still trying to figure
- 43:36Speaker 1: out if this is going to happen, is like, really
- 43:38Speaker 1: good players make adjustments, and Max Meyer has done that,
- 43:42Speaker 1: so like, I have a lot more faith in him
- 43:44Speaker 1: going forward, and I think I need to give players
- 43:47Speaker 1: like Meyer maybe a little more runway than I gave
- 43:50Speaker 1: him than coming into this season.
- 43:53Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think it's fair. And I've also
- 43:55Speaker 2: read a little bit more recently about young pitchers coming
- 43:58Speaker 2: in to the league into the miners, and like he
- 44:03Speaker 2: was drafted in twenty twenty and so he was twenty one.
- 44:07Speaker 2: He was kind of younger from a college pitcher perspective,
- 44:12Speaker 2: and that I think we've had this similar thing with
- 44:15Speaker 2: like uh Libertore this year and a few few others
- 44:20Speaker 2: that like guys that come out like from high school,
- 44:23Speaker 2: there's still like a six six seven year kind of
- 44:26Speaker 2: like development curve for them, And I think you have
- 44:28Speaker 2: to still remember that also generally applies to even the
- 44:31Speaker 2: younger college guys that you know, they still need four
- 44:36Speaker 2: or five years to really develop into that true picture,
- 44:38Speaker 2: and even sometimes at the majors they need that. So
- 44:42Speaker 2: if the guy has true talent, if he's a guy
- 44:44Speaker 2: that seems to generally be healthy, he's got velocity, he
- 44:47Speaker 2: does the thing, you know, kind of some of the
- 44:49Speaker 2: right things, like, you know, especially if you have control
- 44:52Speaker 2: and have a kind of you know, profile that's not
- 44:56Speaker 2: prone too much to homers. He is actually very prone
- 44:58Speaker 2: to home homers, by the way. Then it's just like, okay,
- 45:01Speaker 2: now it's just a tweak to unleash it, to find it.
- 45:03Speaker 2: Whereas if the guy's never got control, like he's not
- 45:06Speaker 2: gonna just randomly run into control, it just doesn't generally happen.
- 45:09Speaker 2: And so I think that there is something to be
- 45:11Speaker 2: learned from Ayer here, because I don't think there's ever
- 45:13Speaker 2: a question about the talent. It was just as he's
- 45:15Speaker 2: gonna put it together and make the adjustments, and then
- 45:17Speaker 2: as soon as he did, he's off the races. He's
- 45:19Speaker 2: still like, let's be frank, his average exit velocity's like
- 45:23Speaker 2: well of the worse in the league. Like he's letting
- 45:26Speaker 2: some pretty hard balls be hit at this point in time.
- 45:28Speaker 2: And so it's not all roses here, but he's he's
- 45:31Speaker 2: a much more useful picture than I think we ever
- 45:34Speaker 2: expected go into the season.
- 45:35Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the other guy that definitely
- 45:37Speaker 1: falls into this bucket is Casey May's same sort of
- 45:40Speaker 1: like profile, not exactly like quite the short king that
- 45:44Speaker 1: Max Meyer is, but certainly also not like a behemoth.
- 45:47Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that's a good point. Who's your
- 45:50Speaker 1: kind of first WI and what did you learn from
- 45:54Speaker 1: this analysis?
- 45:56Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm gonna go with a guy that I
- 45:59Speaker 2: just decimated in in our preseason cells, and that is
- 46:04Speaker 2: Nick Pavetta of the San Diego Padres, who I didn't
- 46:08Speaker 2: look at the player Raider, but I'm going to venture
- 46:11Speaker 2: to say he's in the top ten players. He's got
- 46:15Speaker 2: it up the top top five, like even higher. Yeah,
- 46:18Speaker 2: he's number three right now, he's number three and behind
- 46:22Speaker 2: Hunter Brown and Max Freed. Yeah, so I bought Hunter
- 46:26Speaker 2: Brown and I believe maybe Max Freed. So I'm going
- 46:28Speaker 2: to take the win. But you know, Paveta. It's it's
- 46:32Speaker 2: interesting because this is the reasons I sold Paveta still exist. Yeah,
- 46:40Speaker 2: but what I think you have to remember with pitching
- 46:43Speaker 2: is luck can do a lot of things for you.
- 46:46Speaker 2: And Nick Pavetta, the reason I sold him in the
- 46:49Speaker 2: off season was he has never had an ERA better
- 46:51Speaker 2: than four in his entire career. He has never made
- 46:57Speaker 2: it past one hundred and eighty innings in his career.
- 47:01Speaker 2: He doesn't go deep in a game, so he's done
- 47:02Speaker 2: for one more than ten games, and he just there
- 47:05Speaker 2: was just these multiple, multiple things that he seemed to
- 47:07Speaker 2: struggle with. He's always been a flyball pitcher and he
- 47:11Speaker 2: gives up a decent amount of home runs on those
- 47:12Speaker 2: fly balls. So then the question is what's changed for him?
- 47:16Speaker 2: And so what do we learn What's changed is nothing?
- 47:20Speaker 2: Nothing has changed for Nick Pavetta. He has a five
- 47:24Speaker 2: percent home run for flyball rate, which is a third
- 47:28Speaker 2: of his career result. That is luck. His left on
- 47:32Speaker 2: base percentage is ten twelve points better than his career
- 47:36Speaker 2: He is leaving guys on base like he has never before.
- 47:38Speaker 2: His beabeit is the best in his career by about
- 47:43Speaker 2: seventy points over his career average. He has hit. Literally,
- 47:48Speaker 2: there's like three big luck markers. I look for him pictures.
- 47:50Speaker 2: It's left on base, home run, fly balls, and babiit.
- 47:52Speaker 2: He has at all three of those and he is
- 47:55Speaker 2: cashing in. And then his velocity is not really up
- 47:58Speaker 2: is actually the lowest in the last three years. So
- 48:00Speaker 2: let's look at his x CIRA and his x FIP.
- 48:03Speaker 2: His x HERA is three point oh six. His x
- 48:05Speaker 2: fip's three point twenty four, pretty much in line with
- 48:08Speaker 2: his career numbers. I get he's doing well right now,
- 48:12Speaker 2: but there's regression coming for Pavetta. So I think the
- 48:15Speaker 2: learning here is at some point it's okay if you're wrong,
- 48:21Speaker 2: and don't go chasing just because you're wrong. Because I
- 48:27Speaker 2: still was selling Nick Pavetta at this point, even though
- 48:30Speaker 2: I'm he's number three overall on the Player Raider, I'm
- 48:33Speaker 2: still okay looking at why I made that choice. It
- 48:36Speaker 2: hasn't changed, and I would be selling Pavetta so hard
- 48:39Speaker 2: if I had him right now to any team that
- 48:41Speaker 2: would take him, because there's a reckon in a coming
- 48:44Speaker 2: uh for Nick Pavetta, And I think I'm going against
- 48:48Speaker 2: the spear of this this segment. By the way, I'll
- 48:51Speaker 2: get I'll get better. Don't worry. I've made some real
- 48:53Speaker 2: big mistakes. But I think that that's something to be learned.
- 48:57Speaker 2: Is like, it's okay if you're wrong, don't change why
- 49:01Speaker 2: you did it, because there's a reason you didn't draft
- 49:03Speaker 2: these guys, and if that hasn't changed, don't question yourself.
- 49:08Speaker 2: Max Meyer, the reason we were concerned about him, something changed.
- 49:13Speaker 2: He showed true improvement, and so that's a reason to
- 49:16Speaker 2: reevaluate and go after it. Somebody is Nick Pavetta, who's
- 49:20Speaker 2: thirty years old. He didn't miraculously solve the world's problems here.
- 49:24Speaker 2: He's still still a cell. So maybe I'm baring my
- 49:27Speaker 2: head in the sands and I apolige to all the
- 49:29Speaker 2: Padres fans and the Drafters out there, but I'm still
- 49:32Speaker 2: concerned with Nick Povetta.
- 49:34Speaker 1: I think it's fair because like when I will give
- 49:37Speaker 1: you some grace that when you did the cell as well,
- 49:40Speaker 1: is that you brought him up in our Red Sox
- 49:43Speaker 1: segment even though he is a free agent. I called
- 49:44Speaker 1: it out like sharing that pod. I mean, I think
- 49:48Speaker 1: a lot of like what the success has been is
- 49:50Speaker 1: the San Diego Marine Layer in April, and so that
- 49:54Speaker 1: is killing that home run for five ball. I mean,
- 49:57Speaker 1: he has pitched against Detroit and the Cubs, so it's
- 50:01Speaker 1: not like he's in the Cubs twice actually, so it's
- 50:04Speaker 1: not like he's played against like total scrubs. But he
- 50:08Speaker 1: also hasn't faced the Dodgers yet, so there, I think
- 50:11Speaker 1: when the weather turns out on the West Coast, you
- 50:14Speaker 1: might be looking for that. That's where the home run
- 50:17Speaker 1: for fly ball rate I think is about to shoot
- 50:19Speaker 1: through the roof for Pitvida. But that is I think
- 50:21Speaker 1: that's a good, good kind of lesson too, is that
- 50:24Speaker 1: like sometimes the lesson is like you've gotta be steadfast
- 50:27Speaker 1: and what your original evaluation was, and like, don't let
- 50:31Speaker 1: one month of lucky play totally throw your entire strategy
- 50:35Speaker 1: off for your season.
- 50:37Speaker 2: Yeah, you also have to point out that he's faced
- 50:39Speaker 2: Atlanta when they were completely lost, because he faced in
- 50:42Speaker 2: Colorado and so and both those teams he shut out
- 50:46Speaker 2: for seven innings. So yeah, he played some teams that
- 50:49Speaker 2: were also like completely lost at the same time. Yes,
- 50:54Speaker 2: I think that's all right, who do you got next? Okay,
- 50:57Speaker 2: So I mean this one he was a little bit
- 50:59Speaker 2: of a stretch of it by any because I mean
- 51:01Speaker 2: his draft price was barely nothing, but I did hype
- 51:04Speaker 2: them up a little bit. And that is infielder Ernie
- 51:08Speaker 2: Clement from the Toronto Blue Jays. I think my learning
- 51:12Speaker 2: lesson here is that sometimes in draft season I get
- 51:16Speaker 2: a little bit too lost in my fab like waiver
- 51:20Speaker 2: wire world, where like it really does skew your view
- 51:24Speaker 2: of fantasy baseball when like every week you're evaluating all
- 51:28Speaker 2: these guys that nobody wants for some reason, you're trying to,
- 51:31Speaker 2: like use car salesman put them in front of people
- 51:35Speaker 2: as options, because like, I mean, there's a reason a
- 51:38Speaker 2: lot of these dudes that hang out and waiver wires.
- 51:39Speaker 2: Early in the season, it's a little bit different because
- 51:41Speaker 2: like it's guys who got overlooked in drafts. But the
- 51:44Speaker 2: farther and farther we get into the season, you're trying
- 51:46Speaker 2: to just find dudes with playing opportunity. And that's kind
- 51:50Speaker 2: of where I think I fell for Ernie Clement too
- 51:53Speaker 2: early in the season, that this is the type of
- 51:56Speaker 2: player where when you're in the dog days of August
- 51:58Speaker 2: and you need somebody to plug in to your roster,
- 52:01Speaker 2: that's what are in Clement is good for. But when
- 52:03Speaker 2: you're liking for the actual upside and kind of growth
- 52:07Speaker 2: coming into twenty twenty five, Clement is not the type
- 52:10Speaker 2: of player you're looking at. You know, he's got a
- 52:12Speaker 2: really weak contact rate. I mean, he makes a lot
- 52:15Speaker 2: of contact, but it's weak contact. The playing time in
- 52:19Speaker 2: Toronto looked steadier than it actually was given like what
- 52:24Speaker 2: that bad ball profile is for Clement, and so thankfully,
- 52:28Speaker 2: I mean I didn't fall prey to this in too
- 52:30Speaker 2: many spots. But I think about my TGFBI squad like
- 52:34Speaker 2: I'm flailing a little bit because actually, like I had Clement,
- 52:37Speaker 2: I also had like Paul Deyong, because I was just
- 52:39Speaker 2: trying to play like the the volume game out the
- 52:42Speaker 2: gate when I should have been focusing a little bit
- 52:45Speaker 2: more on upside plays at the end of the draft,
- 52:47Speaker 2: you know, and trusting in the studs that I had
- 52:49Speaker 2: taken early in the draft and playing a little bit
- 52:52Speaker 2: more of a yachtzi game on the back end and
- 52:55Speaker 2: as opposed to trying to look for guys like this
- 52:58Speaker 2: at the beginning. So I think that's a good learning
- 53:00Speaker 2: lesson for me, is that, like, hey, play a little
- 53:03Speaker 2: bit more aggressive with the back in your draft, don't
- 53:05Speaker 2: worry about guys like are in Clement until you get
- 53:07Speaker 2: into maybe June time frame and you just do need
- 53:10Speaker 2: that warm body. Yeah, I think that's a that's a
- 53:13Speaker 2: very fair learning It's like I think guys like that
- 53:17Speaker 2: like and I feel like I may have done the
- 53:18Speaker 2: same thing to degree with Alan Roadin for the Blue Jays,
- 53:22Speaker 2: but very high on it, and I still am, but
- 53:26Speaker 2: not a guy that's like gonna set the world on fire,
- 53:29Speaker 2: and you know, maybe you just keep a closer eye,
- 53:32Speaker 2: like those are the guys that you put on your watch. Listen,
- 53:34Speaker 2: and you watch a little closer than the rest of
- 53:35Speaker 2: your league, and see, like if these things are holding true,
- 53:38Speaker 2: pick them up, or you pick them up and then
- 53:40Speaker 2: be willing to cut them really really quick. Right. I
- 53:43Speaker 2: think those those are okay things to do. It just
- 53:46Speaker 2: hurts when you cut the wrong guy, and then you'll
- 53:49Speaker 2: beat yourself up for that's that's where you get in
- 53:51Speaker 2: that trap, and it happens to everybody. You gotta have
- 53:54Speaker 2: a short memory and fantasy at times.
- 53:56Speaker 1: Yes, I totally, I totally agree. Okay, who is your
- 54:00Speaker 1: next learning lesson?
- 54:02Speaker 2: Yeah, so I kind of cheaped out on the first one.
- 54:05Speaker 2: We think the battle, let's own it. And this next
- 54:08Speaker 2: one was is bad. It's bad. And I tried to
- 54:13Speaker 2: sell James Wood in the offseason, and I think, in
- 54:17Speaker 2: fairness to myself, I didn't say like for his entire career.
- 54:20Speaker 2: I didn't say that. I said, like, I think it's
- 54:22Speaker 2: gonna be a bigger adjustment period than people think because
- 54:27Speaker 2: they expect the power just to come, like come naturally,
- 54:31Speaker 2: just be there. He hits the ball, incredibly hard. But
- 54:34Speaker 2: my view as everybody's treating him like a thirty thirty
- 54:36Speaker 2: five homer bat and at the end of the day,
- 54:39Speaker 2: he has much had had much too big of a
- 54:45Speaker 2: round ball profile, and that was gonna be the thing
- 54:49Speaker 2: that kind of held him back. So I was like,
- 54:50Speaker 2: I just can't pay the price for him. And you know,
- 54:54Speaker 2: James Wood has now hit nine homers. He's got to
- 54:57Speaker 2: combine forty runs and RBIs he's hitting two fifty seven,
- 55:01Speaker 2: walking more than last year, striking out less. Like the
- 55:04Speaker 2: guy's just phenomenal and looks at I will, I will,
- 55:08Speaker 2: you know, take a little victory lap on the fact
- 55:10Speaker 2: that his home run for fly ball rate is utterly
- 55:13Speaker 2: ridiculous at thirty six percent.
- 55:16Speaker 1: But they're they are absolutely tanks.
- 55:19Speaker 2: And so like like I like there's a there was
- 55:21Speaker 2: a reason behind the analysis, but I think the learning
- 55:24Speaker 2: here is and I I feel like I did this
- 55:26Speaker 2: with Elie de la Cruise maybe the year before, where
- 55:29Speaker 2: like at some point, like in the top portion of
- 55:32Speaker 2: the draft, like supreme talent is supreme talent, Like if
- 55:38Speaker 2: they really are that good of a hitter, don't nipick it,
- 55:42Speaker 2: don't try to find the problem with it and just
- 55:46Speaker 2: let it fly. Because good hitters, like you talk about luck.
- 55:50Speaker 2: He's had a little bit of luck, but say he
- 55:53Speaker 2: was kind of more at his career average for home
- 55:56Speaker 2: run for flyball rate instead of nine, he has like
- 55:58Speaker 2: six homers, and he's still driving the ball. He's still
- 56:02Speaker 2: top five percent of the league in barrel rate and
- 56:04Speaker 2: ex velocity and all these things. Like he's still an
- 56:07Speaker 2: incredible player. And so I think I was getting a
- 56:09Speaker 2: little too cute, see looking at that and going, well,
- 56:12Speaker 2: there's a thing here that I think people are missing
- 56:15Speaker 2: and trying to look at other players that have done that.
- 56:17Speaker 2: There were probably lesser players, like I think the comp
- 56:19Speaker 2: I uses Cabrian Hayes. Cabrian Hayes didn't have the same
- 56:24Speaker 2: overall battered ball profile that James would did he had
- 56:27Speaker 2: the potential for it, maybe not even that level of potential.
- 56:31Speaker 2: Or James Wood is just a freakish athlete and he's
- 56:34Speaker 2: so young, so much development happened. So I think that
- 56:37Speaker 2: was a big miss for me. And I'm lucky that
- 56:40Speaker 2: I own him a keeper of formats already, so it
- 56:44Speaker 2: was the price of mission was cheap enough. I couldn't
- 56:47Speaker 2: I could not keep him but that one's a miss.
- 56:51Speaker 2: That one's definitely a miss for me.
- 56:53Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I hear you, and like it does. Honestly,
- 56:56Speaker 1: I think I got a little bit of like Jordan
- 56:59Speaker 1: Locker trauma that like it's tough sometimes with these big
- 57:02Speaker 1: guys that like you see especially that ground ball rate
- 57:06Speaker 1: compared to Jordan Walker.
- 57:07Speaker 3: But like I think what like.
- 57:10Speaker 1: I need to get over is that you can see
- 57:12Speaker 1: it a little bit in Jordan Walker's like minor league
- 57:14Speaker 1: track Carker compared to James Woods or Ellie de la
- 57:17Speaker 1: Cruz is too, is that Walker didn't walk at a
- 57:20Speaker 1: very good clip in the minor leagues, which tells you
- 57:23Speaker 1: something that tells you that in the minors, those pitchers
- 57:26Speaker 1: actually aren't terribly afraid of the of the batter as
- 57:30Speaker 1: opposed to like James Wood was running like eighteen percent
- 57:34Speaker 1: walk rates at some stops, like people were very afraid
- 57:38Speaker 1: of James Wood, and same thing with Ellie, Like Ellie
- 57:40Speaker 1: ran some pretty good walk rates and so like, even
- 57:43Speaker 1: if the strikeouts like were significant, like for somebody like
- 57:47Speaker 1: Wood or Ellie, if the walk rate is also kind
- 57:53Speaker 1: of there with that strike at rate, it tells you
- 57:55Speaker 1: something about how that hitter is just like smoking the
- 58:00Speaker 1: down in the minor, so, like I think that's another
- 58:02Speaker 1: kind of layer to this is like I do need
- 58:04Speaker 1: to shake Jordan Walker out of my like psyche and
- 58:07Speaker 1: like throw it to the side because he's just not
- 58:09Speaker 1: the same player on the same tier when maybe it
- 58:12Speaker 1: looked like he could be.
- 58:14Speaker 2: Yeah, and even like to degree, when you miss on
- 58:19Speaker 2: one of those, it's okay because when you hit on one,
- 58:21Speaker 2: the value so much more. Because when you were drafting
- 58:24Speaker 2: James Wood, you were drafting around other guys that you
- 58:27Speaker 2: already had an own commodity and they were probably at
- 58:29Speaker 2: their ceiling where James would. It wasn't hard to look
- 58:32Speaker 2: and say, well, he could be a first rounder. It's
- 58:34Speaker 2: not hard to argue that, and you have to take
- 58:36Speaker 2: a little bit that risk of the downside with that upside,
- 58:40Speaker 2: and the upside is what wins leaks being conservative. Maybe
- 58:45Speaker 2: the first few rounds, I think I'm actually really supportively conservative,
- 58:47Speaker 2: but you get into those kind of early mid rounds,
- 58:50Speaker 2: you gotta go after the home runs. You have to
- 58:52Speaker 2: be willing to do that. Maybe not every pick, but
- 58:55Speaker 2: you have to be willing to do that because those
- 58:56Speaker 2: are the things that are going to carry you and
- 58:58Speaker 2: when you get it wrong, that's that's very difficult.
- 59:03Speaker 1: All right, Well let's get into my next one, because
- 59:06Speaker 1: I mean this one's this one's also like I can't
- 59:10Speaker 1: believe that I have to admit that, like I was
- 59:13Speaker 1: buying and kind of touting Chicago White Sox pitching at
- 59:16Speaker 1: certain points in terms especially like you maybe shouldn't go
- 59:20Speaker 1: back to like those couple of first like weak fab pieces,
- 59:24Speaker 1: where especially like the White Sox pitching out the gate
- 59:27Speaker 1: and through spring training.
- 59:29Speaker 3: Looked pretty sharp.
- 59:30Speaker 1: Like a lot of the players that they had kind
- 59:32Speaker 1: of floating around between Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon,
- 59:36Speaker 1: Davis Martin had all like developed new pitches and the
- 59:41Speaker 1: arsenal was looking pretty good and when you kind of
- 59:43Speaker 1: watched it live, it all mixed and matched correctly.
- 59:47Speaker 3: And I don't think.
- 59:50Speaker 1: That like there was something that I missed on there.
- 59:53Speaker 1: I think my miss is is you got to take
- 59:56Speaker 1: it to the next level, Like a player can have
- 59:58Speaker 1: a great arsenal in look good and have the mound.
- 1:00:01Speaker 3: Confidence that you're looking for.
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: And I think if any of these players were not
- 1:00:04Speaker 1: on the White Sox, we would be talking about a
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: lot of them as hits if they were also had
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: that kind of layer of the pitch development, because it
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: is actually something that I think the White Socks are
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: starting to get a little bit of a knack for,
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: especially with Brian Banister being around, And it's like one
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: of the cheaper things I think you can do that,
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: Like it's not hard to convince Jerry Reinsdorf to spend
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: money on developing pitching and giving them like some cameras
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: here and there and just it if you've got good
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: arms the way that they've kind of had, because they've
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: got good draft picks and they've kind of been making
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: trades and are also just first on the waiver wire
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: to be able to acquire some of these dudes. The
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: problem is, like the White Sox, that defense is horrendous,
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: and when you're also in the vibes of like a
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: team like that, it just does not help things. Like
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: I musto thinking about like I was watching today Redebtmers.
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw him. He got fly
- 1:01:00Speaker 1: destroyed in Seattle, but like part of it is like
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: the defense behind him did not help him. Like there
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: were a couple of bobbled balls and a couple of
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: fielded opportunities where just the Angels couldn't convert it. That
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: happens all the time on bad teams like the White Sox,
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: and so I think that's where I've got to tamper
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: things down of like, Okay, this guy might have the
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: pieces to put it together to be a starting pitcher
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: and to be a weapon for fantasy, but more times
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: often than not, that does not happen on bad teams.
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: That is a very rare case. When you get like
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: the Carrett Crochet who can rise above it all and
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: has that incredible strikeout profile. When you're talking about somebody
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: who's still putting the ball in play, you need a
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: defense behind you, and you need a winning team behind you.
- 1:01:45Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think what's interesting. I was looking at
- 1:01:50Speaker 2: the overall teams tasts for starters, and if you sort
- 1:01:55Speaker 2: them by war, and you look at the bottom of
- 1:01:59Speaker 2: level teams, and then you look at their era. The
- 1:02:04Speaker 2: White Sox for the second worst era, even though they're
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: only like the sixth Worths War. And what I'm getting
- 1:02:12Speaker 2: at there is from a real world perspective, they're a
- 1:02:17Speaker 2: little bit better because they's some volume. They're they're kind
- 1:02:20Speaker 2: of tinkering around things, but they're not blowing anybody away
- 1:02:23Speaker 2: like they're their strikeouts are low, their walks are high,
- 1:02:27Speaker 2: they're relatively keeping the ball in the ground like they're
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: they're just kind of like working around the outskirts of things,
- 1:02:33Speaker 2: and so they're a little more valuable in the real world,
- 1:02:35Speaker 2: and there's just nobody that's providing like overall value. Like
- 1:02:40Speaker 2: the only other team in there that plays some similar
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: is like the Brewers, and there's a little bit more
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: of like a spread and like the talent level of
- 1:02:47Speaker 2: that starting rotation, where like there's a little heavier top
- 1:02:49Speaker 2: end and the bottom is just falling out for the Brewers.
- 1:02:52Speaker 2: And so I think that's why they're they're there, the
- 1:02:54Speaker 2: White Sox just across the board. It's just it's like
- 1:02:57Speaker 2: the the like quad a pitching kind of at this point,
- 1:03:01Speaker 2: and that's really what's what's bringing them down. Even though,
- 1:03:04Speaker 2: like you could say, like if you could put any
- 1:03:06Speaker 2: of those guys in a pitching factory type of thing,
- 1:03:09Speaker 2: like give them the Tampa or Houston or something like that,
- 1:03:11Speaker 2: you could see some really exciting things. But at the
- 1:03:14Speaker 2: end of the day, a bad team is gonna bring
- 1:03:16Speaker 2: it down.
- 1:03:17Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think on top of it too,
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: you also have to consider like the bullpen, because like
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: the White Sox have an absolutely dreadful bullpen, And so
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: if you have a starter who you know is in
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: the sixth inning running out of gas walks, a dude
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: allows a hit. On good teams with good bullpens, those
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: guys get stranded. On teams like the White Sox, those
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: teams score on a home run. So like that is
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: the other factors like you, that adds up into that
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: era pretty quickly, and I think that's probably causing some
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: of that discrepancy you're seeing there between war and era,
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: because like some of those earned runs going on the
- 1:03:53Speaker 1: Ledger aren't actually like earned, you know what I mean,
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: Because like in when you kind of sort out the
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: luck metrics, you would expect more of those to be
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: left on base. But that's not the way it works
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: when you have a bullpen like the Chicago White Sox.
- 1:04:10Speaker 3: Okay, let's get into our last one.
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: Let's get to your last player here, Broup.
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: Yeah, so I wish we could go through all of
- 1:04:17Speaker 2: our wins. Maybe we should do that sometimes because it'll
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: make me feel a lot better here because my two
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: misses were bad, like he thought, James Wood was bad.
- 1:04:25Speaker 2: I tried to sell O'Neil Cruz, and O'Neil Cruz has
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: just been on fire and I can't really argue it.
- 1:04:34Speaker 2: Like I wrote a little bit about him, like moving
- 1:04:38Speaker 2: him up ranks and stuff, because like he just continues
- 1:04:43Speaker 2: to get better and better and better, and literally everything
- 1:04:45Speaker 2: about his game is more and more attractive, like he
- 1:04:48Speaker 2: said in the Ball in the Air. More he is
- 1:04:51Speaker 2: taking more walks, he's striking out less, he's sitting the
- 1:04:53Speaker 2: ball harder, like he basically he's healthy. And I think
- 1:04:59Speaker 2: this is a combination of the learning with I said,
- 1:05:01Speaker 2: as James wood is, like, talent is talent. You have
- 1:05:03Speaker 2: to recognize talent. And then I think the other one
- 1:05:06Speaker 2: that plays with the cruise here, which is really why
- 1:05:08Speaker 2: I sold him, wasn't the talent, which was the injury history.
- 1:05:11Speaker 2: And I think it's the fine line with these young
- 1:05:14Speaker 2: players of what defines injury prone. He had one hundred
- 1:05:19Speaker 2: and forty six games last season. The season before he
- 1:05:21Speaker 2: played nine, and you know, I think then he was
- 1:05:26Speaker 2: eighty seven the game the season before, and they had
- 1:05:28Speaker 2: too the game the season before because he again I
- 1:05:30Speaker 2: think he had two big significant injuries, but he did
- 1:05:33Speaker 2: show he was fully healthy in twenty twenty four, and
- 1:05:37Speaker 2: he did a twenty twenty season, and some of the
- 1:05:40Speaker 2: metrics had kind of fallen off, like he was didn't
- 1:05:43Speaker 2: really fully deliver on his talent, But the underlying metrics
- 1:05:48Speaker 2: still look pretty good for a guy that is, you know,
- 1:05:53Speaker 2: just twenty six years old. And so I think that's
- 1:05:56Speaker 2: a big learning for me is it's such a delicate
- 1:06:00Speaker 2: get balanced when you're trying to avoid injury risk that
- 1:06:04Speaker 2: you really have to look at the individual player, the
- 1:06:06Speaker 2: kind of injuries they had, have they recovered, and if
- 1:06:10Speaker 2: they're still earlier in their career and they've shown that
- 1:06:13Speaker 2: they can get a full season, and I think you
- 1:06:14Speaker 2: have to give him a second chance. Now, O'Neil Cruz
- 1:06:17Speaker 2: still scares me from an injury risk perspective. The way
- 1:06:20Speaker 2: he plays, he very well could get hurt, but he
- 1:06:24Speaker 2: also has so much upside that even if he does
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: halfway through the season, you've gotten so much value from him.
- 1:06:31Speaker 2: And so I think I don't think I was the
- 1:06:33Speaker 2: only one. I think a lot of people kind of
- 1:06:34Speaker 2: shied away from him, just wasn't quite buying into it
- 1:06:37Speaker 2: because of the injury risk. But again, you go back
- 1:06:40Speaker 2: talent and talents, you have to be willing to invest.
- 1:06:42Speaker 2: You have to be taking those risk And we talked
- 1:06:44Speaker 2: a lot in the offseason of like, if you are
- 1:06:46Speaker 2: cautious and build a strong foundation for your team in
- 1:06:50Speaker 2: those first two three rounds, you have to take these
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: gambles on guys like O'Neil Cruz and James Woods and
- 1:06:56Speaker 2: things like that to win your league. Because if you
- 1:06:59Speaker 2: do a good job drafting early and you picked you know,
- 1:07:03Speaker 2: Jose Ramirez or I'm trying to think, yeah, Judge, but
- 1:07:08Speaker 2: it was too easy to say or and Judge. But
- 1:07:10Speaker 2: like you have those picks that you're able to Corbyn Carroll,
- 1:07:14Speaker 2: like you pick any of those guys that like give
- 1:07:17Speaker 2: you a really solid foundation, then you can take these
- 1:07:20Speaker 2: seeming risk on a men's talent and they can pay
- 1:07:25Speaker 2: off handsomely. So very similar learning with Wood here. This
- 1:07:29Speaker 2: one was just probably a bigger miss because of the
- 1:07:32Speaker 2: speed profile and just the overall incredible ability to do
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: things across the field. He's still gonna get hurt at
- 1:07:39Speaker 2: some point. He's still gonna play hard. But if it
- 1:07:43Speaker 2: comes to the territory and he misses a few weeks
- 1:07:45Speaker 2: here and there, I think we're all gonna be very
- 1:07:47Speaker 2: happy with the outcome of o' neil Cruz.
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think it's fair. And it's almost like
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: the flip side of those White Sox pictures where like
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: the batting line is gonna look really great for a cruise,
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: but like the war is gonna be awful because like
- 1:08:00Speaker 1: I don't know why Pittsburgh continues to run him out
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: in center field, but like it'll be fascinating to kind
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: of see how his career develops because that because he's
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: gonna be like the worst center fielder in the league,
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: but like if he could run a one forty WRC plus,
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: like that is amazing for especially thinking like our CBS
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: league together, where the escalation of the keepers is based
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: on war chef's kiss.
- 1:08:26Speaker 2: Yeah, your point. He's got negative ten defensive saved at
- 1:08:30Speaker 2: this point in season, like we barely end the season.
- 1:08:33Speaker 2: He is dreadfully he's got four errors in the outfl
- 1:08:36Speaker 2: Like it's not good. He's he's yeah, he's very talented
- 1:08:41Speaker 2: to play.
- 1:08:42Speaker 3: We'll just with that.
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I'm one hundred percent certain he would
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: not have made the same play that Dalton Varshol made,
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: and honestly that's probably exactly the type of play where
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: ONEO Cruz might get hurt. So that is like a
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: little bit of kind of the factor here. Yeah, Okay,
- 1:08:56Speaker 1: well let's wrap up this pot. I think it was
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: a great discussion. Sorry to bring you down and talk
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: about all your losses, but I mean we only had
- 1:09:03Speaker 1: six so in total between the two of us, all
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: the other picks where wins do not go back and
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: fact check us on that in those prefe pods. But
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: with that, let's wrap it up and let people know
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: where they can reach you on socials and read your work.
- 1:09:18Speaker 2: Yep, find me on Twitter, slash x and blue Sky
- 1:09:21Speaker 2: Jabrewer one seven. Find me on ras ball on the
- 1:09:23Speaker 2: weekend Sunday's hitter profiles top one hundred hitters for the
- 1:09:27Speaker 2: rest of the season Cooley where folks finds you.
- 1:09:30Speaker 1: Yes, you can also find me on Blue Sky at
- 1:09:33Speaker 1: mCOL seven and read my work on ras ball where
- 1:09:37Speaker 1: I'm doing the waiver wires on Saturdays. And then you
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: can also check out the post that will relate to
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: this podcast as well. So there's always a cards and
- 1:09:45Speaker 1: categories post on rasball dot com. Especially when we're talking cards,
- 1:09:50Speaker 1: we'll have pictures of cards up there, so certainly check
- 1:09:53Speaker 1: us out there, and if you want any cards and
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: categories gear, check out the show notes. Check out the
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- 1:10:01Speaker 1: of stories and links to those stories. But if you
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- 1:10:19Speaker 1: stream in erger has been on fire lately, like it's
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: been really helpful to navigate some of these players getting
- 1:10:26Speaker 1: called up, and also like just the myriad of different
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: matchups and doubleheaders, and especially if you're in any daily
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- 1:10:38Speaker 1: get better than the streaminator from ras ball. Well worth
- 1:10:41Speaker 1: a subscription price. Check it out and with that, we
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: are going to wrap it up for this week, so
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: we will see you same time, same place next week.
- 1:10:50Speaker 3: Take care, everybody, e