Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - NFL Draft Expert Scott Smith
Transcript
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- 1:07Speaker 1: one eight gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
- 1:18Speaker 1: the Favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Brendan
- 1:22Speaker 1: Glashen of the Action Network, filling in for Chad Millman,
- 1:24Speaker 1: who was out traveling today, but we'll return next episode.
- 1:28Speaker 1: I'm joined by Chad's beloved co host, the Professional Gambler,
- 1:32Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Simon, thanks for letting me slide in today
- 1:35Speaker 1: here to talk about the NFL Draft on today's episode.
- 1:38Speaker 1: How are you today, good Man? Yeah, thanks for helping out.
- 1:40Speaker 1: Of course, Chad. We don't work that many weeks doing
- 1:43Speaker 1: NFL stuff, Chad and miss is the most important week
- 1:46Speaker 1: with draft coverage. Hopefully he'll be back to our next show.
- 1:49Speaker 1: But I see why you put our runner. It's like, man,
- 1:52Speaker 1: it's been a really tough year for mock drafters. Like
- 1:55Speaker 1: it's it's truly we're in the deep end here just
- 1:57Speaker 1: because it's gonna be really fun breaking all down. We
- 2:00Speaker 1: usually know who's gonna be a couple of first picks,
- 2:02Speaker 1: at least you know that maybe the top five. Maybe
- 2:04Speaker 1: we know you know, five or six guys are gonna
- 2:06Speaker 1: be top ten. We don't really know a lot of us.
- 2:09Speaker 1: We have good guests. We kind of think we know
- 2:10Speaker 1: what teams are gonna do, but from I don't know.
- 2:13Speaker 1: From my ten years of doing mock drafts, this is
- 2:15Speaker 1: one of the least confident drafts I've ever had. But
- 2:17Speaker 1: for somehow I still have a ton of betsin so
- 2:19Speaker 1: we'll definitely dive into all that. You always find a
- 2:22Speaker 1: way right all of our betting coverage. Of course, we're
- 2:24Speaker 1: looking forward to having it leading up to Thursday's first
- 2:27Speaker 1: round for the NFL Draft, we have a very special
- 2:29Speaker 1: guest Action Network contributor NFL mock draft, Maven Scott Smith.
- 2:34Speaker 1: Every year, our friends at Fantasy Pros ranked the most
- 2:37Speaker 1: accurate NFL mock drafters. In eighteen, Scott finished number one.
- 2:42Speaker 1: Last year he finished top three, and this guy is
- 2:44Speaker 1: objectively one of the best NFL draft experts anywhere. His
- 2:48Speaker 1: latest mock is available now, so be sure to check
- 2:50Speaker 1: it out at the Action Network at Action network dot com,
- 2:54Speaker 1: or of course on the Action app. That's a long
- 2:56Speaker 1: way of introducing Scott Smith. Scott Welcome, what's going on?
- 3:00Speaker 1: Are you going guys? Look it's it's trunch time. I'm
- 3:02Speaker 1: kinda getting into the nitty gritty prepared my last market.
- 3:06Speaker 1: It's gonna drop on Thursday at the Accident Network. I'll
- 3:09Speaker 1: be submitting at Wednesday night. But uh, look at lyon
- 3:12Speaker 1: season right now, so you kind of gotta like sift
- 3:14Speaker 1: through the smoke and see what's really fire and what's not. Yes,
- 3:17Speaker 1: slide detector tests are out there. Scott, care to react
- 3:19Speaker 1: to what Simon's leadoff thought was, just it's a I would,
- 3:23Speaker 1: I would guess from your perspective, one of the more
- 3:25Speaker 1: challenging years to try and figure out who's going at
- 3:27Speaker 1: the top of this draft. Look and and I could
- 3:30Speaker 1: be said for the last couple of years as well,
- 3:31Speaker 1: when you had COVID kind of hitting and causing some
- 3:34Speaker 1: problems every year, it's pretty difficult to go ahead and predict.
- 3:37Speaker 1: But this year that the issue that you've really falling
- 3:39Speaker 1: into is somewhat with the betting odds that are shifting
- 3:42Speaker 1: plus or minus three hundred on a day to day basis,
- 3:45Speaker 1: and you're seeing huge swings just within hours here and there,
- 3:48Speaker 1: So some things to kind of work work through, especially
- 3:51Speaker 1: from betting odds and a betting standpoint as well. So
- 3:53Speaker 1: we will get to Scott's favorite bets that's coming your way. Now.
- 3:56Speaker 1: We'll start with a couple of Sea team centric bets.
- 4:00Speaker 1: Also get into positions like receiver, potentially some quarterback quarterback
- 4:05Speaker 1: discussion as well as, uh maybe if we do see
- 4:09Speaker 1: any first round quarterbacks in the NFL draft. So, Scott,
- 4:13Speaker 1: you want to begin with the New York Giants. They
- 4:16Speaker 1: select number five overall in the first round. What's your
- 4:19Speaker 1: angle here on the gm N we're going ahead and
- 4:22Speaker 1: preparing for the show. Charles Cross is a guy who's
- 4:25Speaker 1: been getting a lot of smoke and uh, you know,
- 4:27Speaker 1: a lot of connections there to the Giants. Peter Schreger
- 4:29Speaker 1: has had multiple of his connections Lincoln Charles Cross there.
- 4:33Speaker 1: I was getting it at plus five plus four fifty
- 4:35Speaker 1: and here right before we start the show, you go
- 4:37Speaker 1: ahead and check and it's Charles Cross at number five
- 4:39Speaker 1: two Giants at plus two fifty. I still think that
- 4:42Speaker 1: there's a little bit of value there, but that number
- 4:44Speaker 1: is a number that's consistently kind of shrinking. So I
- 4:47Speaker 1: think it's another thing where there's smoked. There's a little
- 4:49Speaker 1: bit of fire there with the Giants, and I think
- 4:51Speaker 1: there's there's also a long shot here with Charles Cross
- 4:54Speaker 1: to the Giants that I think that could play out.
- 4:57Speaker 1: I think it is possible that you could see a
- 4:59Speaker 1: situation where this draft starts off and falls with Trey Lane,
- 5:02Speaker 1: Walker and Ade Hutchinson go on one too. Look, Derek
- 5:06Speaker 1: Stingley is another guy who is starting to get a
- 5:09Speaker 1: lot of heat there. You know, Lancer Line is connecting
- 5:11Speaker 1: him there with Houston. And if you know that, you're
- 5:15Speaker 1: sitting there with the Jets at four and they decide
- 5:17Speaker 1: to go ahead and pass on the offensive lineman and
- 5:19Speaker 1: go say Cavon Thibodeaux or my gardener, you know, I
- 5:23Speaker 1: think there's a longside at plus seven hundred. You can
- 5:25Speaker 1: find on some of the sports vets for Charles Crossing
- 5:27Speaker 1: the first offensive player taken off the in the draft
- 5:30Speaker 1: off the board there to the Giants at five. Yeah.
- 5:33Speaker 1: Adam Schefter had a report earlier in the week about
- 5:37Speaker 1: Daniel Jones and whether or not the team will decide
- 5:39Speaker 1: to pick up the fifth year option um and that that,
- 5:42Speaker 1: of course is notable because if indeed they want to
- 5:44Speaker 1: rebuild the offensive line around Jones, would make some sense. Regardless,
- 5:47Speaker 1: I guess who the quarterback is. You want to get
- 5:49Speaker 1: that left tackle in place and sort of bring your
- 5:53Speaker 1: you know, bring your point to more light. Uh. The
- 5:55Speaker 1: Giants draft special available on draft Kings to draft an
- 5:58Speaker 1: offensive lineman Simon at minus thirty. You think Scott's onto
- 6:01Speaker 1: something here that they're gonna go a line with their
- 6:03Speaker 1: fifth pick. Yeah, I don't hate that. I mean, this
- 6:06Speaker 1: is this is such a big draft for this Giants team,
- 6:08Speaker 1: having two picks in the top seven, and what we're
- 6:10Speaker 1: talking about is pretty loaded draft. Again, it's just a
- 6:13Speaker 1: draft all through the first round. There's just a lot
- 6:15Speaker 1: of really solid interior alignment, offensive lineman d d backs.
- 6:19Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot of ways they could go here.
- 6:22Speaker 1: I love that play. I love for them to get
- 6:23Speaker 1: a tackle where it's just like, yeah, they're apparently going
- 6:26Speaker 1: to roll it out again with Daniel Jones. Me personally,
- 6:28Speaker 1: I've either roll a dice in a quarterback or you're
- 6:30Speaker 1: hoping Daniel Jones is so bad this year, you get
- 6:33Speaker 1: one of these studs next year, one of these quarterbacks.
- 6:35Speaker 1: So for me, I'm going to offensive linement that that
- 6:37Speaker 1: seems like a smart player. I love that play. The
- 6:39Speaker 1: first offensive player drafted. That's a really heavy play because
- 6:42Speaker 1: from what I've read all these top teams are looking
- 6:45Speaker 1: at defense in those first four picks, so I do
- 6:48Speaker 1: like that. It's very interesting play. And just to clarify,
- 6:50Speaker 1: the report from Schefter was a week from the six.
- 6:54Speaker 1: The next week the Giants and then of course will
- 6:56Speaker 1: impact well, we'll find out who they end up drafting,
- 6:58Speaker 1: but they will decide on whether or not they pick
- 6:59Speaker 1: up the twenty two point three eight million dollar fiftyear option.
- 7:02Speaker 1: If they decline the option, Jones would play this season
- 7:05Speaker 1: on an expiring contract. So we'll see what the Giants
- 7:08Speaker 1: do at five and at seven. Currently that's where they
- 7:12Speaker 1: are selecting. Uh, Scott, Moving down the board, you've got
- 7:16Speaker 1: your eyes on the Tennessee Titans. They're picking at twenty
- 7:19Speaker 1: six overall on Thursday night. What is your angle on
- 7:23Speaker 1: the Titans? Yeah, Look, the Titans are kind of all
- 7:26Speaker 1: over the place with sum of their needs. I've actually
- 7:29Speaker 1: been leaning a little bit more towards the quarterback being
- 7:32Speaker 1: a selection for them. I think you start looking at
- 7:34Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehills getting a little bit up there in age,
- 7:36Speaker 1: he's thirty four. You look at the fact that they
- 7:39Speaker 1: had success last season and managed to get that number
- 7:42Speaker 1: one overall seed there in the A f C. But
- 7:44Speaker 1: when it came to the playoffs, he just fell flat.
- 7:46Speaker 1: And I think, you know, even if we if we
- 7:49Speaker 1: start looking at the quarterbacks in the situation there currently,
- 7:53Speaker 1: I'm kind of leaning towards Kenney Pickett. And you can
- 7:55Speaker 1: get some longshot odds there at plus fifteen hundred on DraftKings,
- 7:59Speaker 1: but just d afting Titans and connecting a quarterback there
- 8:03Speaker 1: to the Titans, you can get plus six hundred odds.
- 8:06Speaker 1: And you talk about some of their quarterback numbers right now,
- 8:08Speaker 1: the over and under sitting at about two and a half.
- 8:11Speaker 1: Desmond Ritter is another guy who's been getting you know,
- 8:14Speaker 1: a lot of heat. They're talking about him possibly being
- 8:17Speaker 1: a first round selection and being that third quarterback that
- 8:19Speaker 1: pushes that over. And I think, you know, sitting there
- 8:23Speaker 1: looking at Tennessee, I think Tennessee could be a surprising
- 8:26Speaker 1: team that could possibly draft the quarterback. Yeah, I mean
- 8:29Speaker 1: that's a that's a bold one, sir. I mean the
- 8:32Speaker 1: team that was the number one seed in the a
- 8:33Speaker 1: f C. But Ryan Tannehill tends to show his glaring
- 8:39Speaker 1: flaws in big games. And see that playoff game against
- 8:42Speaker 1: the Bengal Simon any thought on the potential of Tennessee
- 8:45Speaker 1: taking a quarterback, which, by the way, as Scott mentioned,
- 8:48Speaker 1: first round quarterbacks drafted the over at two and a
- 8:51Speaker 1: half has juiced all the way to minus to fifty. Yeah,
- 8:54Speaker 1: I've actually we gave that. I think it was at
- 8:56Speaker 1: minus one seventy five last week or minus two hundred.
- 8:59Speaker 1: We we love that in this was on my big board.
- 9:01Speaker 1: One of the teams I had taken a quarterback. I
- 9:02Speaker 1: have tendency I have been lane of trading back in
- 9:05Speaker 1: or I have Detroit trading back into the first round
- 9:06Speaker 1: to grab a quarterback. So to me, Ritter and Matt Correll,
- 9:10Speaker 1: there's a guys kind of guys were into the first round.
- 9:13Speaker 1: You know, we all see these guys. Deficiencies are plenty
- 9:15Speaker 1: of teams have talked about it, but that we again
- 9:18Speaker 1: you just talked about here with Daniel Jones, that fifth
- 9:20Speaker 1: year options such a big deal. Daniel Jones stinks they're
- 9:23Speaker 1: not gonna pick up that option most likely, but if
- 9:25Speaker 1: they are, stud you get that fifth year option, you're
- 9:28Speaker 1: saving fifteen twenty million dollars and that fifth year. So
- 9:31Speaker 1: to me, it makes sense why these teams are gonna
- 9:33Speaker 1: get back into this first round. Take a quarterback end Tennessee.
- 9:36Speaker 1: I like that move just because they have Tannehill there
- 9:39Speaker 1: wherever they draft late in this first round, no problem
- 9:42Speaker 1: sitting there for a year or two. So I actually
- 9:44Speaker 1: liked that play for Tennessee. Scott. Staying on the subject
- 9:47Speaker 1: of quarterbacks, you want to give us some more details
- 9:50Speaker 1: on your predictions as to how many and what quarterbacks
- 9:54Speaker 1: you already hit onto the bit with the Titans, but
- 9:56Speaker 1: predictions for first round quarterbacks, Yeah, I think when you're
- 10:00Speaker 1: looking at it, anytime I'm setting up a mock draft,
- 10:03Speaker 1: you're looking at a draft board, I think you really
- 10:05Speaker 1: have to to set your board based around quarterbacks. Normally.
- 10:09Speaker 1: That would make the top ten round out a little
- 10:10Speaker 1: bit differently and be a little bit more secure. What
- 10:13Speaker 1: who's gonna be those top ten players? I think with
- 10:15Speaker 1: this draft, and they're just not being a blue chip
- 10:19Speaker 1: quarterback prospect that everybody sold on, I think you can
- 10:22Speaker 1: start looking at some of these quarterbacks falling. Daniel Jeremiah
- 10:25Speaker 1: did report yesterday that one of his big predictions for
- 10:28Speaker 1: this draft is that sitting there at twenty, he thinks
- 10:31Speaker 1: that all the quarterbacks are gonna be there available for Pittsburgh.
- 10:34Speaker 1: I actually have Malik Willis, who's probably gonna be in
- 10:37Speaker 1: my final mock draft there mock to Pittsburgh. I think, uh,
- 10:41Speaker 1: that's a team that that has shown their hand prior
- 10:44Speaker 1: to to the draft, starting in these these last couple
- 10:47Speaker 1: of years, and I think it's a good match. They've
- 10:48Speaker 1: been linked to him since the Senior Bowl. I think
- 10:51Speaker 1: you look at Trabsky, I don't think he's on solid footing.
- 10:55Speaker 1: I think he's just gonna be a bridge quarterback. And
- 10:57Speaker 1: you hear about Malik Willis having the most upside of
- 10:59Speaker 1: the quarterbacks. I think that would be a good fit
- 11:01Speaker 1: for him to be able to to go ahead and
- 11:03Speaker 1: be drafted about Pittsburgh and maybe city year or two. Yeah,
- 11:06Speaker 1: like what Scott just said there about the quarterback thing,
- 11:08Speaker 1: where it is like I coming into I really did
- 11:11Speaker 1: not see a quarterback point of the top ten, and
- 11:14Speaker 1: now I'm getting a little nervous. It was just like
- 11:16Speaker 1: Carolina made sense to me to graphic quarterback. Maybe the Seahawks.
- 11:19Speaker 1: Is that why the Saints have two first round picks
- 11:21Speaker 1: now because they want to trade up to get one
- 11:22Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks in the first round. And the more
- 11:25Speaker 1: I read, the more mocks I look at it's like
- 11:26Speaker 1: what he's just talking about. Scott just said, it's these
- 11:28Speaker 1: guys are mocking these quarterbacks the Pittsburgh at the twentieth
- 11:31Speaker 1: pick or whatever. So to me that that would hurt
- 11:34Speaker 1: if these quarterbacks dropped late because I have a lot
- 11:35Speaker 1: invested in these quarterbacks. So it will be interesting to
- 11:38Speaker 1: see if these teams actually do it, Like that's gotta
- 11:40Speaker 1: be a scary thing like the Patriots did last year.
- 11:42Speaker 1: You just sit there and you wait for mac Jones
- 11:44Speaker 1: to drop to a fifteen. You're you're betting on him dropping.
- 11:47Speaker 1: So we'll see if these teams have the cojones to
- 11:49Speaker 1: wait and just sit there and let these quarterbacks drop. Yeah,
- 11:51Speaker 1: and if anything, if you're in those if you're drafting
- 11:55Speaker 1: in that top nineteen, just lay your groundwork for next
- 11:58Speaker 1: year and get a are back in a better class.
- 12:01Speaker 1: That might be the mindset as well. Right, So it
- 12:04Speaker 1: makes some sense as to why some teams, maybe like
- 12:06Speaker 1: a Seattle Pete Carroll, can be stubborn and say, well,
- 12:08Speaker 1: I can rebuild this thing on the fly and I
- 12:10Speaker 1: can worry about the quarterback later because I commit without
- 12:12Speaker 1: a quarterback. Um, despite how loaded his division is, we
- 12:15Speaker 1: think UM moving to the we'll stay on the offensive
- 12:19Speaker 1: side of the ball and go to wide receiver. You
- 12:22Speaker 1: have thoughts on just receivers in general going in the
- 12:24Speaker 1: first round, but more specifically Scott first wide receiver coming
- 12:28Speaker 1: off the board. Who do you like? Yeah, this is
- 12:30Speaker 1: something that's kind of changed here. But I think when
- 12:33Speaker 1: we start looking at those top ten teams and I
- 12:35Speaker 1: land specifically on Atlanta there at eight is being the
- 12:38Speaker 1: primary spot for the first wide receiver come off the board.
- 12:41Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson was the early favorite, and when you look
- 12:43Speaker 1: at the odds, he's still the favorite there at one ten.
- 12:46Speaker 1: The person that I'm actually linking there is gonna be
- 12:49Speaker 1: Drake London, who you can get a little bit better odds.
- 12:51Speaker 1: I think he's sitting around plus two fifty right now.
- 12:53Speaker 1: I just think with that coaching staff, author Smith in particular,
- 12:56Speaker 1: he likes bigger wide receivers, that that position group is
- 13:00Speaker 1: probably the worst position group there for Atlanta in the
- 13:02Speaker 1: entire NFL um You start looking at what there are
- 13:05Speaker 1: other options might be, and I would kind of lean
- 13:07Speaker 1: towards edge. They were pretty horrible at putting pressure on
- 13:09Speaker 1: the past there as well. But I just don't think
- 13:11Speaker 1: that that position group there at wide receiver is one
- 13:14Speaker 1: where they can sit there and go into the second
- 13:16Speaker 1: round without being able to take one of these premium
- 13:19Speaker 1: wide receivers. And right now I have Drake London as
- 13:21Speaker 1: to being that guy that I think is a good
- 13:23Speaker 1: bet to go off the board as the first wide
- 13:25Speaker 1: receiver selected. And he's got the third shortest odds on
- 13:28Speaker 1: DraftKings for first receiver selected, like you said, plus two fifty.
- 13:32Speaker 1: So I'm in a lot of hype around Jamison Williams.
- 13:34Speaker 1: Is there any fear that Williams might be the guy
- 13:37Speaker 1: who could could cut Scott's pick off? I love him,
- 13:41Speaker 1: I really do. Have watched a lot of tape on
- 13:42Speaker 1: this kid, and I'm as an Egos fan, I'm dying
- 13:45Speaker 1: for this could have dropped to us because well of him,
- 13:48Speaker 1: we'll have again the Heisman winner from Alabama from last year.
- 13:51Speaker 1: And as much I like Hurts, he's terrible this year.
- 13:54Speaker 1: Next year we get Bryce Young. To me, that would
- 13:56Speaker 1: just be hilarious. We just had literally the Alabama offense
- 13:58Speaker 1: running the Eagles team. So I love Williams upside, but
- 14:01Speaker 1: I would honestly take I'd take one and ahead of
- 14:03Speaker 1: him just London's bigger, he's stronger, and he hasn't torn
- 14:06Speaker 1: his knee up. So to me, I like the bet.
- 14:09Speaker 1: I think that teams are really like you know, they
- 14:11Speaker 1: just want to play it safe. Again, we haven't talked
- 14:13Speaker 1: about number one pick yet, but I feel like at
- 14:15Speaker 1: this time of year, a lot of these teams, most
- 14:17Speaker 1: of them want to play it safe because you just
- 14:18Speaker 1: want to keep their jobs. So Drake London first pick
- 14:20Speaker 1: for wide receiver, that that actually sounds pretty good to me. So,
- 14:23Speaker 1: as we discussed before we went live on on the
- 14:26Speaker 1: pod today, um, a lot of stuff just keeps moving.
- 14:29Speaker 1: There's a lot of movement for this draft this year
- 14:31Speaker 1: because of the uncertainty. To Simon's point, who might go
- 14:34Speaker 1: number one. But the number to me that's interesting is
- 14:38Speaker 1: first round, first round wide receivers. And we're staying on
- 14:41Speaker 1: the topic of receiver. Scott, you could get it around
- 14:44Speaker 1: five and a half and a lot of folks were thinking, okay,
- 14:46Speaker 1: take the over on that, but now it's moved a
- 14:49Speaker 1: full receiver up to six and a half and you
- 14:53Speaker 1: can get the over. The under is juiced at minus
- 14:55Speaker 1: one twenty over at minus one ten. So now with
- 14:58Speaker 1: that extra receive we're added to that number, to that,
- 15:01Speaker 1: to that prop Does that change you're thinking at all?
- 15:04Speaker 1: And I should I should ask you what was your
- 15:05Speaker 1: initial thought process on when you saw a number at
- 15:08Speaker 1: five and a half and then how it moved to
- 15:09Speaker 1: six and a half for receivers in the first round. Yeah.
- 15:12Speaker 1: One of the things I've been talking about is I
- 15:14Speaker 1: just think the the financial landscape of the NFL is
- 15:17Speaker 1: really changing. And I've said that here the past couple
- 15:19Speaker 1: of weeks. You start looking at Davante Adams, Tyreek Kio
- 15:22Speaker 1: and even and even on the flip side of that,
- 15:24Speaker 1: like some of the contracts that like Denzel Ward has
- 15:26Speaker 1: gotten as a as a cornerback. So I think when
- 15:29Speaker 1: you start looking at how juice some of these contracts are,
- 15:32Speaker 1: you're gonna see more and more wide receivers and cornerbacks
- 15:35Speaker 1: sliding in to to the end of these first rounds.
- 15:39Speaker 1: Um Initially I was pounding the over at five and
- 15:42Speaker 1: a half. I think the market has corrected itself here
- 15:45Speaker 1: at six and a half and here at six and
- 15:47Speaker 1: a half with with minus one's one in minus one
- 15:49Speaker 1: ten on on the over and under. It's a bet
- 15:51Speaker 1: that I'm kind of staying away from UM. I think
- 15:54Speaker 1: when you start looking at it, I think six is
- 15:56Speaker 1: kind of the number that I'm a little bit more
- 15:58Speaker 1: comfortable with. I think one of the areas that you
- 16:00Speaker 1: might want to look at that could be sliding into
- 16:02Speaker 1: that top thirty two would be George Pickens. I think
- 16:05Speaker 1: he's a guy. He's got some off the fielding, a
- 16:07Speaker 1: little bit of character concerns, but he's a good fit.
- 16:09Speaker 1: I think there to Green Bay at eight. But I
- 16:12Speaker 1: think when you start looking at some other things and
- 16:14Speaker 1: you start looking at teams light Green Bay, Kansas City
- 16:17Speaker 1: sitting there with two picks, I could see a situation
- 16:20Speaker 1: where you do have that wide receiver is sliding in.
- 16:23Speaker 1: But I can also see a situation with a team
- 16:25Speaker 1: like Kansas City it likes to move up and trade around,
- 16:28Speaker 1: moving up to grab the specific wide receiver they want
- 16:30Speaker 1: earlier in around and maybe forcing some other teams maybe
- 16:34Speaker 1: to miss out on the wide receiver. So it's really
- 16:36Speaker 1: gonna be dependent on how some of these teams have
- 16:38Speaker 1: grades at. But the over and under sitting at six
- 16:41Speaker 1: and a half is kind of a bet that I'm
- 16:42Speaker 1: staying away at, away from if you were able to
- 16:44Speaker 1: get it at five and a half. I hope you
- 16:46Speaker 1: pounded it early on in draft season, but I think
- 16:48Speaker 1: the market is very much correctly to self here. Yeah,
- 16:50Speaker 1: sim in the end of the first round is where
- 16:52Speaker 1: this could get really really sticky, really tricky. Uh. Chris
- 16:57Speaker 1: Christian Kirk goes to Jacksonville, So maybe Arizona has a
- 17:00Speaker 1: need Amari Cooper to Cleveland. Dallas might figure, hey, why
- 17:03Speaker 1: not add to our our bunch here for Dak Prescott
- 17:06Speaker 1: Scott hit on green Bay. I don't think you'll see
- 17:08Speaker 1: anything from Tampa. I don't think Tennessee could always use
- 17:11Speaker 1: another guy. And then you've got Detroit at thirty two.
- 17:14Speaker 1: What's your read on this receiver prop as far as
- 17:18Speaker 1: number of receivers taken in the first round moving from
- 17:21Speaker 1: five and a half to six and a half, any interest? Yeah?
- 17:24Speaker 1: This this this, Uh, I've been burned by this. I
- 17:26Speaker 1: think what happened just two years ago. Te Higgs, guy
- 17:28Speaker 1: I loved, was the first pick in the second round.
- 17:31Speaker 1: I swore he was gonna trade, they were gonna trade
- 17:33Speaker 1: into the first round and grab him because I thought
- 17:35Speaker 1: his upside was that great. They didn't, and that burned me.
- 17:38Speaker 1: I think the over under in that year was six
- 17:40Speaker 1: and a half same thing and hit at six. So
- 17:43Speaker 1: to me, it sounds like Scott just said you kind
- 17:45Speaker 1: of missed the best of the number. Stay away. There's
- 17:48Speaker 1: there's plenty of opportunity in this draft. I don't think
- 17:50Speaker 1: you're gonna find any in this bet. The playoffs are
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- 19:31Speaker 1: or visit one gambler dot net in West Virginia. So
- 19:36Speaker 1: moving along to other first round best bets from Scott Simon.
- 19:40Speaker 1: I want to get back to you here, though, What
- 19:42Speaker 1: is your current read on who the number one overall
- 19:45Speaker 1: pick might be? My current read? I mean I'm happy
- 19:48Speaker 1: books have limited this year. Luckily the books got burned
- 19:51Speaker 1: so bad last year. They've really been limited how much
- 19:53Speaker 1: you can get down on these picks earlier in this season,
- 19:56Speaker 1: So I would say the last week they've kind of
- 19:58Speaker 1: picked it up, and we've seen the movement where might
- 20:01Speaker 1: even Peter King and a couple other guys had Walkers
- 20:03Speaker 1: number one pick when I made again, I don't watch
- 20:06Speaker 1: college football like these other pros. But when I listened
- 20:08Speaker 1: to all these pros and read these guys mocks before
- 20:10Speaker 1: the combine, also their stuff. Walker was the end of
- 20:13Speaker 1: a first round kind of draft pick. And I've seen
- 20:17Speaker 1: the play. These guys keep talking about this play in
- 20:18Speaker 1: this Georgia game where everyone kind of stopped playing this
- 20:21Speaker 1: play like they stopped playing hard, and he was running
- 20:23Speaker 1: a guy down all the way down the field, this
- 20:25Speaker 1: big d lineman chasing the guy down fifth yards down
- 20:27Speaker 1: the field. I love Walkers upside, I don't get what's happening.
- 20:30Speaker 1: Aiden to me, is just such a safe pick at
- 20:32Speaker 1: that number one pick for the Jags. It made sense
- 20:34Speaker 1: for me that did either grab a d end or
- 20:36Speaker 1: they would just played safe with Doug Peterson take an
- 20:38Speaker 1: offensive lineman, and the offseason they signed offensive linemen. It
- 20:43Speaker 1: made sense. It would get a guy like Aiden, and
- 20:45Speaker 1: I'm lost because I've invested in I've invested in Aiden,
- 20:48Speaker 1: and now Walker. Someone knows something like again, the group
- 20:52Speaker 1: I work for, we pay a lot of money for
- 20:54Speaker 1: a mole for a lot of these teams. And the
- 20:56Speaker 1: guy we had with the Jags, he's been saying the
- 20:59Speaker 1: same tune their own or wants Aiden. That's the owners
- 21:01Speaker 1: what he said for months now that he wants Aiden.
- 21:05Speaker 1: It's the GM, the coach and a bunch of other people.
- 21:07Speaker 1: They are like, well what about Walker? What about offensive linement?
- 21:10Speaker 1: So you know, you keep seeing these headlines. They have
- 21:12Speaker 1: four guys right now they could take at the number
- 21:15Speaker 1: one pick that that's so that's crazy me to even
- 21:17Speaker 1: think about, Like, really, were three days out and they
- 21:19Speaker 1: are they don't know who they're gonna take. So I'm
- 21:22Speaker 1: gonna trust my mole, trust my source that it's Aiden.
- 21:26Speaker 1: I'm not gonna keep betting thousands of dollars on it
- 21:28Speaker 1: because I already have to invested in it. But every
- 21:30Speaker 1: time the odds dropped, like he's back to plus two
- 21:33Speaker 1: fifty now, Aiden, I gotta I gotta throw another grain
- 21:36Speaker 1: on it. So it's it's it's gonna burn me. But
- 21:38Speaker 1: this first pick, man, it's gonna be the most the
- 21:40Speaker 1: most drama for me, at least for this draft, just
- 21:42Speaker 1: because it is so up in the air, and I
- 21:44Speaker 1: know a lot of pros they've heavily invested in this
- 21:46Speaker 1: Walker kid. So the reason why I bring that up
- 21:48Speaker 1: because I figured you wouldn't mention Sauce Gardner, and there's
- 21:52Speaker 1: you can make the case that he is the best
- 21:55Speaker 1: talent available in the top ten, top five possibly um.
- 22:00Speaker 1: And now a lot of you look at odds now
- 22:02Speaker 1: Scott he Gardners the favorite to be the first cornerback taken.
- 22:06Speaker 1: But it brings up a more bigger picture point. You
- 22:10Speaker 1: have a you have a thought on first round corners
- 22:12Speaker 1: the numbers said at four and a half. UM, it's
- 22:15Speaker 1: a position I think as we talk about receiver teams,
- 22:19Speaker 1: you've got to defend the receivers as well. In the
- 22:21Speaker 1: National Football League with given how offenses have expanded in
- 22:24Speaker 1: offense is becoming such a focus a passing game offense.
- 22:28Speaker 1: So what's your gauge on four and a half corners
- 22:31Speaker 1: and over or under Scott in the first round? Well,
- 22:33Speaker 1: just the hot back on that first pick, real quick, Um,
- 22:36Speaker 1: and talking about how the numbers have changed. If you
- 22:39Speaker 1: want to go ahead and still put some money on
- 22:41Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson to be the first overall pick. A lot
- 22:44Speaker 1: of these sports books are actually allowing you to start
- 22:47Speaker 1: to parlay some of these first couple of picks, and
- 22:50Speaker 1: right now Aidan Hutchinson to go one and Trayvon Walker
- 22:53Speaker 1: to go to If you to put the both of
- 22:55Speaker 1: those together as the first to pick, you can get
- 22:57Speaker 1: plus five hundred on that to go ahead and may
- 23:00Speaker 1: the head some of the other bets that you bet
- 23:01Speaker 1: maybe last week whenever you've got positive numbers on Treyvon
- 23:05Speaker 1: Walker to go ahead and be the first overall pick
- 23:07Speaker 1: to Jacksonville. So there's still some ways to play that,
- 23:10Speaker 1: but to go ahead and jump on the cornerback, I
- 23:12Speaker 1: think when you start looking at it, and we talked
- 23:14Speaker 1: a little bit more about how the landscapes kind of
- 23:16Speaker 1: change with some of these contracts. Right now that numbers
- 23:19Speaker 1: that over four and a half, and I think when
- 23:21Speaker 1: you start playing some of these numbers like this and
- 23:24Speaker 1: start thinking of it more in a poker standpoint, I
- 23:26Speaker 1: think you want out very similar to the way you
- 23:28Speaker 1: would play a hand of poker. And I think with
- 23:30Speaker 1: that cornerback number, you have some outs in the form
- 23:33Speaker 1: of you know of some of these guys, like you know,
- 23:36Speaker 1: you start looking, You've got kier Ilam, You've got you know,
- 23:40Speaker 1: Kyler Gordon, You've got Andrew Booth. Like those three guys
- 23:44Speaker 1: right there could all add on to to the top
- 23:47Speaker 1: three cornerbacks that that are selected. So I think you
- 23:49Speaker 1: give yourself out with that over four and a half number.
- 23:52Speaker 1: I think the total number is gonna end up being five,
- 23:55Speaker 1: but sitting there at what it's it's at plus one
- 23:58Speaker 1: twenty right now, that's about that. I like, I think
- 24:00Speaker 1: there's a good value there to be had, and I
- 24:01Speaker 1: think you leave yourself with a lot of outs to
- 24:04Speaker 1: possibly go ahead and hit that bet. Yeah, I've it's
- 24:07Speaker 1: not the first time I've heard that one. Uh, definitely
- 24:09Speaker 1: I share some similar interests just in the point I
- 24:11Speaker 1: made to set you up on that with just the
- 24:13Speaker 1: need of that position. It's you can never have too
- 24:15Speaker 1: much help at that position. When you see how we
- 24:16Speaker 1: loaded the top of the league is at receiver Simon
- 24:19Speaker 1: carried away in on corners. The numbers at four and
- 24:22Speaker 1: a half and if you take the under it's at
- 24:23Speaker 1: minus one fifty right there with Scott. It's it's just
- 24:26Speaker 1: become a position of it gets paid a lot of
- 24:28Speaker 1: money now, so teams like a trade back in and
- 24:30Speaker 1: grab it. So to me that that's a great number
- 24:32Speaker 1: where we may have three cornerbacks taking the top fifteen
- 24:36Speaker 1: now we're just sitting on two for the next seventeen picks.
- 24:38Speaker 1: That that's a good feeling to have. So I like
- 24:40Speaker 1: that number a lot. Excellent Scott. Any other first round
- 24:44Speaker 1: bets that you want to get get into before we
- 24:45Speaker 1: wrap here, Yeah, you know, I think when we start
- 24:48Speaker 1: looking at some of these and this isn't a number
- 24:51Speaker 1: that's gonna give you huge odds, but I think it's
- 24:53Speaker 1: a very safe bet. And I think when you start
- 24:56Speaker 1: looking at the over and under on safeties, um, you
- 25:00Speaker 1: definitely have Kyle Hamilton's. But that number right there is
- 25:02Speaker 1: that one and a half. So louis seen Daxton Hill
- 25:06Speaker 1: out of Michigan. You know, at minus two eighty five,
- 25:09Speaker 1: you're not gonna like make a huge profit here, but
- 25:13Speaker 1: I think you you're safe to go ahead and look,
- 25:15Speaker 1: go ahead and settle with a you know, bump on
- 25:18Speaker 1: your on your bankroll and stuff like that. I think
- 25:21Speaker 1: you have those two outs. Daxton Hill is very highly regarded.
- 25:24Speaker 1: He's got an expected draft position bouncing around somewhere around
- 25:27Speaker 1: Pick Louis seems another guy that uh the scouts seemed
- 25:31Speaker 1: to love. I think he's a great fit for Detroit
- 25:33Speaker 1: there at UH at pick thirty two. I think Tampa
- 25:36Speaker 1: Bay is another out that you could possibly see. UM
- 25:39Speaker 1: also Cincinnati. I think there's plenty of options at the
- 25:42Speaker 1: back end right there too for another one of these
- 25:44Speaker 1: safeties to go, and that that safety beat at over
- 25:47Speaker 1: one and a half just seems like easy money for me. Um.
- 25:50Speaker 1: Like I said, you're not gonna make a huge profit,
- 25:52Speaker 1: but I think it's safe to go ahead and take
- 25:54Speaker 1: the guaranteed money, which is what I would consider that
- 25:56Speaker 1: bet Um another couple of bets that I like. I
- 25:59Speaker 1: think we kind of hit on on some of those
- 26:02Speaker 1: those cornerbacks. Kyler Gordon's plus one ten to be drafted
- 26:05Speaker 1: in the top thirty two. His his expected draft position
- 26:09Speaker 1: is right there around pick thirty three. Uh. Cayer Elam
- 26:12Speaker 1: out of Florida is that plus and uh Leuisine, who
- 26:16Speaker 1: had just hit on that safety's uh even money bat
- 26:18Speaker 1: at plus one hundred. So I think those are some good,
- 26:21Speaker 1: good bets that I would go ahead and sprinkle a
- 26:23Speaker 1: little bit of cash on to to go in in
- 26:25Speaker 1: the top thirty two. Um another long shot that I
- 26:29Speaker 1: really like to go ahead and look here. We talked
- 26:32Speaker 1: about Derek Stingley a little bit, getting getting connected to Houston.
- 26:35Speaker 1: They're a lot um. You can go ahead and do
- 26:39Speaker 1: an exact top three of Trayvon Walker, Aiden Hutchinson and
- 26:43Speaker 1: Derek Stingley at plus five fifties. If you don't like
- 26:46Speaker 1: Stingley to be that pick there the first cornerback off
- 26:49Speaker 1: the board to Houston, you can go ahead and swap
- 26:50Speaker 1: it out with AMR. Gardner for plus six hundred. I
- 26:53Speaker 1: think both of those bets right there offer some good
- 26:55Speaker 1: value if you want to go ahead and swing that way.
- 26:59Speaker 1: We think so I when you're not in your head
- 27:00Speaker 1: at that one, Yeah, I like that one. I like
- 27:03Speaker 1: again Kyle Hamilton's he's a coworker of ours. Okay, he's
- 27:06Speaker 1: from the volume, no disrespect, but I like his outside
- 27:09Speaker 1: the top ten value right now. I could see him
- 27:12Speaker 1: go and pick eleven, pick twelve. Nothing against him. It's
- 27:15Speaker 1: one of those where I feel like these guys are
- 27:17Speaker 1: trying to get a little smarter. They're trying to really
- 27:19Speaker 1: trust the nerds, which the nerds are gonna tell them.
- 27:21Speaker 1: Safety is an important position, for sure, It's just not
- 27:24Speaker 1: as important as a d lineman, his offensive linements, a
- 27:27Speaker 1: wide receivers, all these other key positions, a quarterback. So,
- 27:31Speaker 1: I mean, again, the kid talent is insane. He is
- 27:34Speaker 1: going to be a studden o league. It's kind of
- 27:36Speaker 1: those things where, yeah, people are gonna be like, well,
- 27:38Speaker 1: did you see his forty time? Kyle is football fast,
- 27:41Speaker 1: Like if you watch his game tape, you never really
- 27:43Speaker 1: thought to yourself, this kid is not that quick. But
- 27:45Speaker 1: I'm actually anxious here what Scott's view is of this
- 27:49Speaker 1: year's draft? You think because of next year's draft with
- 27:51Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, we do see these quarterbacks falling a little bit,
- 27:54Speaker 1: because we've already seen projectives for next year. It's they're
- 27:57Speaker 1: literally projecting three quarterbacks go one, two, and three. Do
- 28:00Speaker 1: you see that? Do you actually really believe that hype
- 28:02Speaker 1: about these quarterbacks dropping it picked twenty? Do you is
- 28:04Speaker 1: that something real? Because again I have sources are like that.
- 28:07Speaker 1: It feels like this year more than any I'm not
- 28:09Speaker 1: gonna know a lot until the morning of the draft,
- 28:11Speaker 1: Like that's when we see all the crazy line moment.
- 28:12Speaker 1: Like last year we saw the trail Lance line movement.
- 28:14Speaker 1: It feels the same with this year, like all of
- 28:16Speaker 1: a sudden, I'm gonna wake up and see the quarterbacks
- 28:18Speaker 1: dropping to pick twenty or something crazy like that. Are
- 28:20Speaker 1: you here? And stuff like that to Scott, Yeah, that's
- 28:23Speaker 1: what I'm hearing. And uh, you know, good friend former
- 28:25Speaker 1: Action Network. You know remember Matthew Freedman, He actually went
- 28:29Speaker 1: back and and did a study and and basically looked
- 28:32Speaker 1: over the last in and fifteen years, and when a
- 28:34Speaker 1: quarterback wasn't selected in the top five, that generally gave
- 28:38Speaker 1: you a signal that the gms and the scouts are
- 28:40Speaker 1: very down on the quarterback class. And that's when those
- 28:42Speaker 1: quarterbacks started to slide. And I think you actually have
- 28:45Speaker 1: the number of two and a half, But like when
- 28:47Speaker 1: you start looking at it with those numbers, when quarterbacks
- 28:49Speaker 1: weren't drafted in the top five, generally only like two
- 28:52Speaker 1: quarterbacks went in the first round. I just don't think
- 28:54Speaker 1: all of these quarterbacks they that are in this draft
- 28:58Speaker 1: as prospects. They have their war you know, they all
- 29:01Speaker 1: have their their different issues, especially within the leak Wills,
- 29:04Speaker 1: who may have the top upside, but you look at
- 29:06Speaker 1: what he ran there in Liberty and the level of
- 29:09Speaker 1: competition that he played at. I think it's gonna take
- 29:12Speaker 1: a year or two for him to to go ahead.
- 29:14Speaker 1: It's not to say that any of these guys can't,
- 29:16Speaker 1: you know, can't come out and produce and prove us wrong.
- 29:18Speaker 1: But from the prospect evalue wasting standpoint, there's just not
- 29:22Speaker 1: a clean one there for this draft class. Yeah, and
- 29:25Speaker 1: I mean opponent on that. It's like, um, things are
- 29:28Speaker 1: always evolved the NFL. Like I'll never forget the year
- 29:30Speaker 1: the Eagles went and traded up to get Wentz. Golf
- 29:33Speaker 1: was the number one pick. How he said something I'll
- 29:35Speaker 1: ever forget, which is how you just know these guys
- 29:37Speaker 1: are so full of ship. He said, we trade up
- 29:39Speaker 1: to get Wentz because the upcoming draft classes of quarterbacks
- 29:41Speaker 1: are no good. The following year was Mahomes and Watson.
- 29:44Speaker 1: So it's one of those where these gms are gonna
- 29:46Speaker 1: say a lot of bs and just talk whatever reason,
- 29:48Speaker 1: but it is it is gonna be interesting where it's
- 29:51Speaker 1: just so much smoke. This year again, Peter King put
- 29:54Speaker 1: out a mock draft Monday morning, I do believe that's
- 29:56Speaker 1: why Walker's odd shifted so highly, because he literally can
- 29:59Speaker 1: put you and check the draft kings timing of it
- 30:02Speaker 1: he put his article. I believe this guy put it
- 30:03Speaker 1: out a like midnight or eleven PM. That's when you started.
- 30:06Speaker 1: The odds for Walker for number one pick really go
- 30:09Speaker 1: from believe this plus two fifty to minus one fifty
- 30:12Speaker 1: between twelve pm East Coast time and four am East
- 30:16Speaker 1: Coast time. So it is really really crazy. All the
- 30:19Speaker 1: drama rumors we're gonna hear, and when you wake up
- 30:22Speaker 1: Thursday morning, check the odds if you've been betting these
- 30:24Speaker 1: draft odds, because that movement you see draft morning, that's
- 30:28Speaker 1: as real as it's gonna get. Like. That's when the
- 30:30Speaker 1: pros really strike and the information is really good. So again,
- 30:33Speaker 1: make these bets, but make sure, like Scott talked about,
- 30:35Speaker 1: you're kind of hedging and taking care of your position,
- 30:37Speaker 1: because you know what't Bean calling these kind of things.
- 30:39Speaker 1: The draft is meant to be fun and be able
- 30:41Speaker 1: to make some good money off taking a batage of
- 30:42Speaker 1: some spots. Don't go all in on the first pick,
- 30:45Speaker 1: or don't go all in on us saying bet the
- 30:47Speaker 1: over of the cornerbacks. You kind of want to spread
- 30:49Speaker 1: these things out just because again, the draft is a
- 30:51Speaker 1: long first day, and just the warning just to to
- 30:54Speaker 1: some of the listeners right now. The last few years,
- 30:57Speaker 1: a lot of these sports books have been getting burned,
- 31:00Speaker 1: see with a lot of these prop shows popping up
- 31:02Speaker 1: and a lot of people getting sharper and some of
- 31:04Speaker 1: these sharp vettors betting big early in the morning. So
- 31:07Speaker 1: be on the lookout because some of these sports books
- 31:09Speaker 1: are gonna start locking these bets out and taking a
- 31:11Speaker 1: lot of these bets off their sites. So I wouldn't
- 31:14Speaker 1: expect to be able to wait in an hour or
- 31:16Speaker 1: two before the draft hits and be able to go
- 31:18Speaker 1: pound some of these numbers. I think some of these
- 31:19Speaker 1: sports books are just gonna flat out shut down the numbers,
- 31:22Speaker 1: and that's not allowed by that biggest being that close.
- 31:26Speaker 1: Vegas does not take action on the draft day. So
- 31:28Speaker 1: New Jerseys you can get. You can get action down
- 31:30Speaker 1: New York all these other states. But like Scott said,
- 31:32Speaker 1: if you if you're making bets afternoon on Draft day,
- 31:36Speaker 1: your options are gonna be very slim. That are gonna
- 31:38Speaker 1: start taking these numbers down. And if you're in Vegas,
- 31:40Speaker 1: make sure you get all your bets and Wednesday night beforehand,
- 31:42Speaker 1: they're taking all lines down on Thursday. I was literally
- 31:46Speaker 1: gonna ask both of you your biggest piece of advice
- 31:48Speaker 1: when you bet the draft, and you both basically gave
- 31:51Speaker 1: warnings and caution folks, and you reminded people if you
- 31:55Speaker 1: do want to do it, you cannot wait too long.
- 31:56Speaker 1: And I guess the positive this year compared to last year.
- 31:59Speaker 1: You're not gonna get some blockbuster for a tree Lance, right,
- 32:03Speaker 1: You're gonna have an idea. But but with the the
- 32:06Speaker 1: downfall would will be as as Simon said, You're gonna
- 32:08Speaker 1: get uh, You're gonna get some um, some understanding based
- 32:12Speaker 1: on reporting what team and what player might fit in
- 32:16Speaker 1: terms of interest and what they plan on doing with
- 32:19Speaker 1: X pick in terms of the pick number odds that
- 32:21Speaker 1: are up at a variety of books. I'm open for
- 32:23Speaker 1: a shock the world Lions take Molika pick two because
- 32:26Speaker 1: that would honestly throw a wrench in everything, and that
- 32:28Speaker 1: would be epic. But that's for chaos that is gonna
- 32:31Speaker 1: do it for us everybody. Scott Smith does a great
- 32:34Speaker 1: job covering the NFL draft. Action Network contributor NFL Mock
- 32:38Speaker 1: Draft Maven Scott, thanks a lot of the time, man,
- 32:40Speaker 1: great stuff, appreciate it. Thank you alright. This has been
- 32:43Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. Thanks so much
- 32:46Speaker 1: for listening. Everybody. Be sure to join Chat and Simon
- 32:48Speaker 1: for their final NFL Draft betting episode which is out
- 32:52Speaker 1: early early Thursday morning, and Simon urged you be sure
- 32:56Speaker 1: to listen because stuff will be taken down and you
- 32:58Speaker 1: won't be able to get actions, so be sure to
- 33:00Speaker 1: set your alarm, get up and tune in. So until
- 33:02Speaker 1: next time for Scott Smith, Simon Hunter your host today
- 33:05Speaker 1: Brendan glass Sheen filling in for Chad. All said and done,
- 33:09Speaker 1: Chad loves you, y