Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 305 - 6/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 305 - 6/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 3 O five of the all systems Go
• 0:25
  sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:37
  Happy Tuesday. The early portion of our week
• 0:40
  rolls on in the final full week of June before we turn the page
• 0:44
  to July. Before you know it, guys, it'll
• 0:46
  be football season. So just get ready.
• 0:48
  But between now and then, we do have tomorrow, the NBA draft.
• 0:53
  I saw last night my Celtics made a move giving up Drew Holiday,
• 0:57
  picking up Anthony Simons and a couple picks.
• 0:59
  So we're already seeing big deals, including the Kevin
• 1:02
  Durant deal. Now if you know me, you know
• 1:04
  that I love betting on the draft, NFL draft, NBA draft,
• 1:08
  even the NHL draft on the whole. Point being is that you don't
• 1:11
  need to know the players, you don't need to know all the
• 1:13
  insurance and outs. You just got to follow the
• 1:14
  market and lean on some some mock drafts from people that
• 1:18
  kind of are tied in and hear things and are kind of know and
• 1:22
  and leak out information. And the number one guy that I
• 1:24
  look to is Jonathan Gavoni. He just put out another mock
• 1:27
  draft. I did mention I thought it was
• 1:30
  maybe last week when I joined Patrick and Dustin on SiriusXM
• 1:34
  Beeson Live tonight, VJ Edgecomb, I believe he was -200
• 1:38
  to go third overall. Well, now he's -300 so right off
• 1:41
  the bat we're seeing movement. I don't have any plays for you
• 1:44
  today guys, but I would suggest one thing, log into your sports
• 1:48
  book, whether it's DraftKings, FanDuel, doesn't matter and just
• 1:51
  screenshot a bunch of the odds. I screenshotted some odds on to
• 1:55
  be a first round pick, some matchup odds, who will go first,
• 1:58
  this guy or that guy? And then over under draft
• 2:00
  position. What we'll do is get one final
• 2:03
  mock draft and then compare how those lines have moved in the
• 2:07
  last 24 hours, which is when again, word leaks out and you
• 2:10
  really start to see a market movement.
• 2:11
  So if you got Edgecombe third overall, you're feeling good
• 2:14
  about it right now. But if you haven't bet anything
• 2:17
  yet, that's OK Should have a play or two for you guys for
• 2:20
  tomorrow's pod on the day of the draft.
• 2:23
  Now looking toward today guys, I do have a four pack of sweats
• 2:26
  for you. Probably thought it'd just be 3
• 2:28
  MLB, right? Well, I do have three MLB, but I
• 2:30
  also have a W NBA play and this game is actually on NBA TV, so
• 2:36
  you can watch it if you want. It involves Caitlin Clark, but
• 2:39
  is it for the fever against the fever money line spread total?
• 2:43
  You have to stay tuned for that one.
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  But this is a really sharp line move and it's lighting up two
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  really good system matches for me.
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  So we are one and O in the WNBA. Wouldn't it be nice if we could
• 2:54
  get a winner tight and go 2 and O?
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  So a four pack overall. You guys know the drill.
• 2:57
  Let's see if we can get three out of four.
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  Eke out a winning day now. I buried the lead.
• 3:02
  Go bust out those brooms last night.
• 3:04
  A great start to the week 3 and O + 2.28 units did not have to
• 3:09
  sweat at all. The Diamondbacks winning 10.
• 3:11
  Nothing against the White Sox. Mariners absolutely rolled as
• 3:15
  well, which is great to see. The big dumpster Cal Rally hit
• 3:18
  another Homer. So when were the Mariners?
• 3:20
  And then we had to sweat the Braves a little bit because
• 3:22
  they're up 3. Nothing.
• 3:23
  Pretty much the entire game. Soto hit a Homer.
• 3:26
  It was 3 to 2. They're threatening in the 8th.
• 3:29
  Luckily the Braves bullpen locked that down.
• 3:31
  South Mariners, D backs and Braves all winners, nice little
• 3:35
  3 and O sweep plus 2.28 unit night to start the week.
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  So challenge as always guys, when you're coming off a good
• 3:42
  night in sports betting, the challenge is to stay the course,
• 3:45
  not get too high and see if you can eke out another winning day.
• 3:48
  Of course, if we had gone O and three last night, the challenge
• 3:51
  would be to not get too low and to just again grind, scratch and
• 3:54
  claw and find some winners. But it's always the better
• 3:57
  challenge when you're hot to try to have another hot day.
• 3:59
  So any of you guys, without further ado, let's get right
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  into it. I got a three pack of baseball
• 4:04
  plays and then I'll give you my WNBA play as we finish up the
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  pod. So couple early games that I
• 4:10
  focused on first one on the board.
• 4:12
  Let's look at 6:35 PM Eastern Time, the Texas Rangers visiting
• 4:16
  the Baltimore Orioles. Now going into this one, we got
• 4:19
  the OS 34 and 44. Remember they started terrible
• 4:23
  and actually kind of clawed back a little bit recently.
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  They fired their manager and they had a big win last night
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  over the Rangers. 6 nothing as a -135 home, home favorite
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  pitching matchup, rematch here. For tonight, the Rangers, who
• 4:36
  are 38 and 41, they're going to go with the lefty Jacob Lats.
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  He's one and O with a 3.26 ERA. Meanwhile, the O's are going to
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  go with the veteran ready, Charlie Morton, who's four and
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  seven with a 5.64 ERA. More on him in a bit.
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  What do we see across the market here?
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  Well, nothing but movement in favor of the birds.
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  Baltimore opened this game around a -. 125 home favorite
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  Texas around a + 110 row dog. And we've seen Baltimore get
• 5:02
  steamed up -125 now up to -135 and again, some shops might even
• 5:08
  be creeping out at this point. Toward -140 now I jumped on the
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  Orioles -130 at Bet MGM. You may still be able to get
• 5:17
  that price, but a lot of books, again are creeping up further
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  toward -135 But as always, have multiple outs.
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  Shop for the best line. Now, aside from the line, move
• 5:26
  toward Baltimore. I really like the BET splits on
• 5:28
  the Orioles If we start at Circa again, which caters to respected
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  betters, sharp betters, wise guys.
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  Out in Vegas, the Orioles are only getting 57% of money line
• 5:38
  bets, but 91% of money line dollars.
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  So a big low bets, higher dollar split in favor of the Orioles
• 5:46
  out in Vegas. Then we got some system matches
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  here. I have 4 pretty good system
• 5:50
  matches. Here are a few of them.
• 5:53
  If you're a favorite who made the playoffs the previous year
• 5:55
  and you're also getting at least $0.05 of line movement in your
• 5:58
  direction, those teams are 211 and 111 this year, 66% with a 4%
• 6:04
  ROI. If you are a home favorite with
• 6:06
  a line move in your direction who also made the playoffs the
• 6:08
  previous season, you are 164 and 7768% with an 8% ROI.
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  When both teams are below 500, take the home favorite off a
• 6:19
  win. Those teams are 45 and 2267
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  percent, 8% ROI. Then lastly, a non division home
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  favorite off a win with steam $0.05 or more.
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  Those teams are 110 and 6065% with a 3% ROI.
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  And Baltimore also just has that classic non division favorite
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  value with the lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
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  quote the better team. Now I want to make on
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  Baltimore's offense hopefully showing up here again tonight.
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  Baltimore has the better offense overall between these two teams.
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  They're hitting 240 on the year, 89 homers, 310 runs scored.
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  Texas is only hitting 227, 78 homers and 282 runs scored.
• 6:59
  And then lastly, I mentioned Charlie Morton.
• 7:01
  Guys really old. He's had a pretty good career,
• 7:04
  but his ERA is 5.64 on the year. But he's pitched pretty well,
• 7:09
  knock on wood. Hope that continues in the month
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  of June. He has a 2.25 ERA and four June
• 7:15
  starts. He's only given up five runs in
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  20 innings pitched. And oh, by the way, Baltimore,
• 7:20
  you know, they're 10 games below 500.
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  They're five. And O and Charlie Morton's last
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  five starts. So you got it all up here, guys.
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  There's an early one, 6:35 PM Eastern Time.
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  Baltimore won last night. And doesn't look like there's a
• 7:33
  respected money dropping the sign toward Texas.
• 7:35
  Nope. It's going further toward the
• 7:37
  Orioles. So I'm laying it with Baltimore
• 7:40
  again. Good sharp line move -125 up to
• 7:42
  -135 I got -130 Orioles at Bet MGM again.
• 7:47
  Shop around some books. Inching closer toward -140 So
• 7:51
  let's go O's baby. Next early game for you. 6:40 PM
• 7:55
  Eastern Time, first pitch. Let's go to Cleveland where the
• 7:58
  Guardians are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays.
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  Now, going into this one, we got the Jays 41 and 36 on the year,
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  but they just dropped two or three against the White Sox.
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  They lost the series finale 4:00 to 2:00 on Sunday as a -, 200
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  home favorite. On the other hand, the Guardians
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  39 and 37 just took two or three against the A's.
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  They won that series finale on Sunday 3 nothing coming through
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  as a -115 Rd. favorite. So pitching match up here.
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  We got a couple lefties on the bump.
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  The Blue Jays are going with the lefty Eric Lauer.
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  He's three and one with a 2.29 ERA.
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  Meanwhile, the Guards are going with the lefty Logan Allen.
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  He's five and four with a 4.21 ERA.
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  So what have we seen across the market here?
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  Well, this game opened at basically a pick em around -110
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  both sides. You had some books open,
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  slightly Toronto favorite, slightly Cleveland favorite.
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  But most, most books are pretty much down the middle -110 both
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  sides. And what do we always talk about
• 8:54
  when you open out a pick em? Where does that line move?
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  Because maybe the sharps who have set their own numbers have
• 9:00
  a pick em as well, which means no edge, no, no advantage over
• 9:03
  the books, no need to play either side.
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  But that's not always the case. Sometimes you open at a pick em
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  and wise guys who set their own numbers, they say, oh, we don't
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  have a pick em. We got this team favored over
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  that team, which is when they hit it and cause a line move.
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  So in this case, looks like the Jays are the wise guy preferred
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  play here. Because after opening -110 we've
• 9:24
  now seen Toronto get steamed up to -120 some shops -125 some
• 9:30
  shops even -130 So it's very clear that this line, after
• 9:34
  opening at a pick em, is moving toward Toronto.
• 9:37
  Now, I really like the splits on Toronto.
• 9:39
  First, at DraftKings, they're only getting 55% of money line
• 9:43
  bets, but 74% of money line dollars.
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  And then at Circa, the Jays are getting 81% of money line bets
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  but 99% of money line dollars. So both books have really good
• 9:55
  low bets, higher dollar split in favor of the Jays.
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  Now couple system matches here in Toronto road favorites off a
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  loss playing an opponent off a win, kind of a buy low sell high
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  play. That's 102 and 61 this year 63%
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  with a 7% ROI. When both teams are coming off a
• 10:12
  day off remember both teams played Sunday they're they're
• 10:14
  off yesterday. Take the road favorite.
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  That system is 27 and 1564% with a 9% ROI.
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  Toronto's bats. I'm gonna hope that they get to
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  Allen here tonight. Toronto is hitting 256 on the
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  year, 79 homers, 330 runs scored.
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  Cleveland is only hitting 2:30 with 75 homers and 286 runs
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  scored. And oh by the way, we got 2
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  lefties on the bump. How did these teams hit against
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  lefties? Well, advantage Blue Jays.
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  They're hitting 271 against S Paws this year.
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  That's the third best base average against lefties.
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  Meanwhile, the Guardians are only hitting only hitting 223
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  against lefties. That ranks 23rd Lauer by the
• 10:55
  way, 1.72 ERA and four June starts.
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  He's only given up three runs in 15.2 innings pitch, so I hope he
• 11:02
  continues to pitch well. Meanwhile, Allen in the month of
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  June, not terrible, but not as good as Lauer 4.15 ERA, he's
• 11:09
  given up eight runs and 17.1 innings pitched.
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  And oh by the way, I popped open the Juice Reel app and I went to
• 11:16
  the Robo Jackson best bet picks for today.
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  The AI driven plays that the computer spits out.
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  Top 2 recommended plays. One of the two is on Toronto so
• 11:26
  we got a Robo Jackson AI check mark here for Toronto.
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  We got a good pick em to Rd. Favorite line move, good bet
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  splits, better offense. Hopefully the better pitcher on
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  the bump. I got Toronto guys at -122 at
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  FanDuel again. Shop around some books closer to
• 11:42
  -130 last night of the night, 8:10 PM Eastern Time.
• 11:47
  First pitch. Who knows, maybe a World Series
• 11:49
  matchup. Well, probably not because
• 11:51
  Yankees and the Dodgers might have something to say about it.
• 11:53
  But let's go to Houston where the Astros are hosting the
• 11:56
  Philadelphia Phillies. Now.
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  Phillies come in 47 and 31. Just took two or three against
• 12:02
  the Mets. They won that series finale for
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  us on Sunday. Remember that Sunday night
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  baseball home favorite with a line move system match came
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  through. They won 7 to 1 as a -120 home
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  favorite. Meanwhile, the Strohs 45 and 33
• 12:15
  they they also just took two or three against the Angels.
• 12:18
  They won the series finale 8 to 7 as a -115 Rd. favorite.
• 12:23
  So for tonight's interleague series opener, the Phills are
• 12:25
  going to go with the lefty Ranger Suarez 6 and one 2.2 O
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  ERA. Stroh's meanwhile going to
• 12:32
  counter with the fellow southpaw Frambert Valdez.
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  He's 8 and four with a three-point O 9 ERA.
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  So what have you seen across the market here?
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  This game opened Houston around a -, 140 home favorite, Philly
• 12:44
  around a + 120 Rd. dog. And basically the public doesn't
• 12:48
  know what to do Yeah, Houston is at home but it's kind of a big
• 12:51
  number -140 ish. And Philly is a good team
• 12:55
  getting plus money. So public doesn't know what to
• 12:57
  do. At DraftKings it's basically
• 12:58
  5050 down the middle and what we always talk about 5050 bet
• 13:02
  split. Theoretically in a vacuum, a
• 13:04
  line shouldn't move at all because again, balanced action,
• 13:08
  no need to adjust the price up or down.
• 13:10
  But when you see a 5050 ticket split, remember 5050 line was
• 13:13
  always only about the tickets, not the money.
• 13:16
  Even though it's down the middle, we're seeing this line
• 13:19
  move toward the Houston Astros. Astros have gotten steamed up
• 13:22
  -140 now up to -155 I got Houston at -150 at ESPN bet.
• 13:29
  I believe they're still available -150 but again, shop
• 13:32
  around some books or most books around -155 but the splits look
• 13:36
  pretty good at DraftKings. Astros only 48% of money line
• 13:40
  bets but 59% of money line dollars.
• 13:43
  And then at Circa really like this 173% of money line bets on
• 13:48
  Houston but it accounts for 92% of the money line dollars.
• 13:51
  So once again a low bets higher dollar split at both DraftKings
• 13:55
  and Circa. Now I have 11 system matches on
• 13:58
  Houston. This is probably my top system
• 14:00
  match play of the night. Here are the top or a few of the
• 14:03
  top ones. Home favorites with a line move
• 14:05
  in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season.
• 14:08
  Those teams are 164 and 77. 68 percent, 8% ROI this year.
• 14:14
  Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year,
• 14:16
  playing another opponent who made the playoffs the previous
• 14:18
  year. Basically, it's a big game. 2
• 14:20
  good teams. Well, that home favorite is 81
• 14:23
  and 4067 percent, 13% ROI. Both teams coming off a win.
• 14:29
  Take the home favorite, 38 and 2263 percent, 4% ROI.
• 14:34
  And in this spot, the Astros have done well at home.
• 14:37
  They are 27 and 1368%, 20% ROI. But if they are a home favorite
• 14:43
  with a line move in their favor, they're 9 and 282 percent, 36%
• 14:48
  ROI. Some correlative betting as
• 14:51
  well. Again, around a -, 150 ish
• 14:53
  favorite with a low total of 7 1/2.
• 14:56
  It's just under 7 1/2 under -115 So fair amount of expected run
• 15:00
  scored, more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
• 15:04
  And oh, by the way, 2 pretty good pitchers on the bump.
• 15:06
  If this becomes a, you know, a bullpen game, hopefully that's
• 15:09
  an advantage to the Stroh's because the Astros have the
• 15:12
  second best bullpen in baseball. 3.28 ERA.
• 15:16
  Meanwhile, the Phillies 4.6 three team ERA.
• 15:19
  That's the fifth worst in baseball.
• 15:22
  So 5050 line move toward Houston.
• 15:25
  Great bet split at circa bunch of system matches.
• 15:28
  Astros have done well in the spot.
• 15:29
  And then, oh, by the way, I told you a second ago, there's two
• 15:32
  robo Jackson best bet picks from Juice Real.
• 15:34
  One was Toronto. You know who the second one was?
• 15:38
  Houston, baby. So let's go Stroh's.
• 15:41
  I got Houston -150 at ESPN bet shop around most books now -155
• 15:47
  S Baltimore, Toronto and Houston.
• 15:49
  Can we find a way to get two out of three?
• 15:51
  That is the goal. Now, you may not have expected a
• 15:54
  WNBA play for me, but there was a game that just screamed at me,
• 16:00
  grabbed me by the face, shook me in the face, slapped me and
• 16:03
  said, hey, you better play this one.
• 16:04
  So I'm going to look toward the late night game tonight.
• 16:06
  There's four games overall. I'm going to look at the Indiana
• 16:09
  Fever against the Seattle Storm 10:00 tonight.
• 16:13
  If you want to watch this one and you're like me and you pay
• 16:16
  you pretty much your life savings to your cable company.
• 16:18
  I haven't cut the cord yet because I want to get all these
• 16:21
  channels. So I'm probably wasting money.
• 16:24
  But it's always nice when I can watch them.
• 16:26
  But it is on NBATV if you want to sweat it.
• 16:28
  But anyway, the Indiana Fever, first thing you got to know
• 16:31
  Caitlin Clark. Of course, huge, you know,
• 16:34
  obviously superstar and everyone wants to sweat and back Caitlin
• 16:37
  Clark. But the Fever are six and seven
• 16:39
  this year. They've lost two straight and
• 16:42
  they're two and four on the road.
• 16:44
  They're now facing the Seattle Storm, who are 9 and five on the
• 16:47
  year, 5 and two at home and they've won three in a row and
• 16:51
  four of their last five. So what have we seen across the
• 16:53
  market? Well, this game opened the
• 16:55
  Seattle Storm a very short 1 or 1 1/2 point home favorite.
• 17:00
  And this line ain't moving toward Caitlin Clark, It's
• 17:04
  moving away from Caitlin Clark. We've now seen the Storm get
• 17:07
  steamed up to -3 1/2, so -1 -, 1 1/2 up to -3 1/2.
• 17:13
  This would qualify as, you know, a very short line that became
• 17:17
  obviously bigger towards the Seattle Storm.
• 17:19
  It's not a dog to favorite, but it's a short favorite becoming
• 17:22
  more of a favorite with Seattle. So right off the bat, minus one
• 17:26
  1 1/2 up to 3 1/2 tells me a lot of big money came in on the
• 17:29
  Storm. Then we look at the bet splits
• 17:32
  out at DraftKings and Circa. At DraftKings, the public is on
• 17:36
  Caitlin Clark in the points public.
• 17:38
  Right now, 62% of spread bets are on the fever in the points.
• 17:42
  However, lines moving toward Seattle.
• 17:45
  So this is actually a fade. The trendy dog reverse line move
• 17:48
  Publix on Indiana Fever and Caitlin Clark, but line is
• 17:52
  moving toward the storm. Now if you flip it the other
• 17:54
  way, only for 38% of spread bets, but nearly 50% of the
• 17:59
  money is on Seattle. So nice low bets, higher dollar
• 18:02
  spread split. But I'm going to go money line
• 18:05
  here because I like to money line short favorites.
• 18:09
  You know, if you lay a 3 1/2, I hope storm win by four or more.
• 18:11
  But what if they win by 1-2 or three and you lose your 3 1/2?
• 18:14
  Again, the game opened at just 1 1/2.
• 18:16
  So odds makers are telling you it could be a close game.
• 18:19
  So I got the storm on the money line at -165 I'll pay a little
• 18:24
  more juice to protect myself on the off chance of a close game,
• 18:27
  but you can't get -165 at ESPN bet, but shop around.
• 18:31
  Some books are -170 or -175 What I really like about the money
• 18:35
  line, in addition to kind of protecting yourself, is both
• 18:38
  DraftKings and Circa splits look really good on the money line.
• 18:42
  Seattle on the money line at DraftKings, 36% bets, 49%
• 18:47
  dollars. And then Seattle at Circa on the
• 18:50
  money line, only 33% bets but 57% of dollars.
• 18:54
  So good low bets, higher dollars in favor of Seattle Home Rd.
• 18:58
  Seattle is five and two at home, Indiana only two and four on the
• 19:02
  road. And this is where I got a little
• 19:04
  more confident about the play because I love the splits.
• 19:07
  I love the line move. But listen to this.
• 19:10
  Home favorites in the WNBA this year are 39 and 12, straight up
• 19:15
  77%. So home favorites are winning,
• 19:19
  You know, three out of four, nearly four out of five times
• 19:22
  this season. If a home favorite also made the
• 19:25
  playoffs the previous year, which is the case that the
• 19:27
  Stormer in tonight, they improved to 34 and seven
• 19:30
  straight up 83%. And if you're a home fave with a
• 19:34
  line move in your direction, those teams are 28 and 682% with
• 19:40
  a 6% ROI. So home favorites are winning
• 19:43
  77. Sorry, home favorites are
• 19:45
  winning 77% of the time, Home favorites who made the playoffs
• 19:49
  the previous season are winning 83% of the time and home
• 19:52
  favorites of the line mover winning 82% of the time.
• 19:55
  Those are three pretty hefty system matches on the Storm.
• 19:59
  So even though you may not, you may or may not be a big WNBA
• 20:02
  better. Again, I can't really name you a
• 20:04
  single player on the Storm. I know Skyler Diggins just
• 20:08
  because I was looking at the page and she's a leading scorer,
• 20:10
  but. Again, the beauty of data-driven
• 20:12
  betting, hopefully we can get a win here with a storm.
• 20:14
  So you don't have to know all the players in the insurance and
• 20:17
  the outs. If you can read the market
• 20:19
  again, that's that's really more than half the battle.
• 20:22
  So Long story short, I'm staying up late, I'm watching NBATV, I'm
• 20:25
  rooting against Caitlin Clark, and I have been seeing a lot of
• 20:28
  this stuff where like they're beating up Caitlin Clark and
• 20:30
  Sophie Cunningham is protecting her.
• 20:32
  So Sophie Cunningham's become kind of a star.
• 20:36
  We'll see if any shenanigans tonight, but all I care about
• 20:39
  Seattle win the damn game. I got the Seattle Storm on the
• 20:43
  money line at -165 So that about does it for episode 3 O five of
• 20:49
  the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by
• 20:52
  Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 20:53
  where we wrap things up and I first start by saying thank you.
• 20:57
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 20:59
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 21:03
  sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 21:05
  Whether your tail fade, pick and choose or just sit back and
• 21:08
  listen to some breakdowns. I appreciate you guys.
• 21:11
  I know we got a lot going on and when you give me 20 to 30
• 21:14
  minutes of your time and again to talk sharp breakdowns with
• 21:16
  me, I really appreciate it Means a lot to me.
• 21:19
  If you do want to, you know, do me a solid, could you consider
• 21:22
  please giving this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
• 21:26
  iTunes? If you want to leave a nice
• 21:27
  comment or click the follow button or recommend the pod to a
• 21:31
  friend, I would also very much appreciate that.
• 21:34
  Next up, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown,
• 21:37
  data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, betting based on not
• 21:41
  what we think or want or hope will happen, but based on what
• 21:44
  the market is telling us. Will the market win every game?
• 21:46
  No, but if we can find those games that fit our model, sharp
• 21:50
  data-driven plays with system matches and good bet splits,
• 21:53
  hey, that's what we're going to be riding here till till the
• 21:57
  cows come home. So if this style of betting has
• 21:59
  appealed to you, you you've seen kind of some of the benefits of
• 22:02
  it and you want to learn more about data-driven betting.
• 22:05
  Well, guess what? I would love for you guys to go
• 22:07
  to Amazon.com and then type in the NFL or sorry, the everything
• 22:11
  guide to sports betting. I'm getting ahead of myself, the
• 22:14
  everything guide to sports betting.
• 22:15
  It's the first book I ever wrote.
• 22:17
  It is fantastic for brand new betters, whether you want to
• 22:20
  just support the pod and pick up a copy or you know someone who
• 22:23
  could use a few tips. Someone who's trying to get into
• 22:26
  betting or maybe bets a lot and really doesn't see a lot of
• 22:29
  results because they're just betting with their heart.
• 22:30
  Every time you know what you should do, you should pick up a
• 22:33
  copy of the Everything Guide to Sports Betting on Amazon.
• 22:36
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 22:38
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 22:40
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 22:43
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 22:46
  a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
• 22:49
  everything guide to sports betting.
• 22:51
  While you're at it, stay on Amazon.com and then type in the
• 22:54
  NFL sharp betting playbook. It comes out August 12th.
• 22:58
  But if you want to make me very happy and make my publisher
• 23:01
  triumph books very happy, think about pre ordering a copy and
• 23:06
  you can bring the everything guide and the NFL sharp betting
• 23:08
  playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
• 23:11
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
• 23:13
  Got to stay cool though. It's still hot out here in
• 23:15
  Boston. So let's get some ice waters and
• 23:18
  I don't know, maybe a frozen slushy drink.
• 23:19
  How about that? We'll sweat some games together
• 23:24
  next. Have you downloaded to my
• 23:25
  favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm and juice Reel yet?
• 23:28
  Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
• 23:31
  for game bets and player props. And of course, Juice Reel.
• 23:35
  So many great options and then features of Juice Reel.
• 23:38
  The first one is the fact that you can get the all systems go
• 23:42
  best bet picks exclusively only on the Juice Reel app.
• 23:46
  So if you enjoy this pod, if it's hopefully giving you some
• 23:50
  good insights, remember this podcast is free.
• 23:52
  It cost you nothing to listen every day.
• 23:54
  So I'm going to pass the hat. If you enjoy the pod, think
• 23:57
  about dropping in a $5.00 bill because for $4.99 a week you can
• 24:02
  sign up to get the official ASG podcast Best Bets.
• 24:06
  They'll be posted right to Juice Reel as soon as I bet them at my
• 24:09
  sports betting app, it goes right to Juice Reel.
• 24:12
  You can tail, you can fade, you can do whatever you want, you'll
• 24:15
  be the first to know and hopefully you'll beat some
• 24:17
  closing lines and get some good CLV And aside from the ASG pod
• 24:21
  official best bets, you can also get the robo Jackson best bet
• 24:23
  picks. The sharp mush indicators.
• 24:25
  The arbitrage plays shop for the best line futures as well as
• 24:29
  syncing up your sports books, getting a running report card of
• 24:32
  your action as well as a real betting dollar breakdown for
• 24:35
  every game spread money line in total based on people who have
• 24:39
  downloaded and synced up their their books to juice rail.
• 24:42
  So download rhythm, download juice real.
• 24:44
  Give him a five star review in the App Store while you're at
• 24:47
  it. Next, do you have a live odds
• 24:50
  page? If you don't have one, you need
• 24:52
  one. It is so important.
• 24:53
  You got to know first what are the games being played today
• 24:55
  that I can get down on? What are the start times I need
• 24:58
  live scoring. Once the games get going, I need
• 25:00
  live lines to give me an opportunity to maybe place an in
• 25:03
  game wager. But most of all, you got to know
• 25:05
  what the line opened at, how it's moved, which direction pull
• 25:09
  up the line history, get a full breakdown.
• 25:12
  As soon as the team gets hit hard across the market.
• 25:14
  You can see get lit up in red so you can identify steam very
• 25:17
  easily and quickly. And then jump on a book that
• 25:19
  hasn't adjusted yet. And of course, you're going to
• 25:22
  get all the major books so you can shop for the best line and
• 25:25
  always find the best price so that you know where you got to
• 25:27
  go. You got to go to oddslogic.com.
• 25:30
  It's the best live odds page around, whether you have a live
• 25:33
  odds page you like but it's expensive and you want to save
• 25:36
  some money or you don't have one at all.
• 25:38
  Or maybe you have 1:00 and it's free but it's delayed.
• 25:41
  You don't know where the date is coming from.
• 25:43
  They give your bet splits and percentages.
• 25:44
  Be like, OK, where the hell is that coming from?
• 25:46
  You ask them, they don't tell you.
• 25:48
  It happens quite a bit in the market.
• 25:50
  Or maybe they just don't have many books to choose and you
• 25:53
  can't identify steam. You don't get live lines.
• 25:56
  You got to go to Odds Logic. So go to the specific link, give
• 26:00
  it a shot. Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 26:05
  You'll get a 7 day free trial and then 50% off your first
• 26:08
  month of service. Again, that's Odds
• 26:09
  logic.com/josh 123. So that about does it for
• 26:14
  Episode 3 O five of the ASG Pod powered by Rhythm.
• 26:18
  As always, this is the part where we finally leave you with
• 26:21
  two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 26:23
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 26:27
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 26:29
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
• 26:32
  Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods or the Nash in
• 26:36
  Nashville, New Hampshire. Or of course, out in the desert
• 26:38
  where the true grinders get down.
• 26:40
  Where Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest juice
• 26:43
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 26:45
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 26:47
  swimming pool. You need a pool when it's this
• 26:50
  hot. If you're like me in New
• 26:51
  England, whether whether it's at Circa as well, you're going to
• 26:55
  walk up to me and we're just going to see each other smile.
• 26:58
  We're going to bust out a broom from the janitor's closet and
• 27:01
  maybe we'll do a little dance like Fred Astaire.
• 27:03
  How about that? Or maybe who was it?
• 27:05
  Christopher Walken when he did the dance with?
• 27:07
  I forgot the name of that song, it was Fat Boy Slim.
• 27:11
  But anyway, guys, show me a Mariners ticket, AD backs
• 27:13
  ticket, a Braves ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
• 27:16
  you. We'll post about the book and
• 27:18
  sweat some plays together tonight.
• 27:20
  As always, guys 3 and OO and three, two and one, one and two.
• 27:24
  Hot, cold, great night, terrible night.
• 27:26
  Grinding somewhere in the middle, we never get too high
• 27:29
  when we're hot, we never get too low when we're cold because when
• 27:31
  we're hot we're never as good as we think.
• 27:33
  When we're cold, we're never as bad as we think.
• 27:35
  We just got to continue to grind, stick with it and stay
• 27:38
  true to the process. And you guys might know the
• 27:41
  process by now. Making data-driven bets with our
• 27:43
  head and not our heart. So if we can find the games that
• 27:47
  fit our model against the public, with the house, with the
• 27:49
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
• 27:52
  If we can do that and I'm confident long term we're going
• 27:56
  to be successful sports betters. So have a great Tuesday night.
• 27:59
  Everybody stay cool. If you're like me in New
• 28:01
  England, it's 100° today. So it was 98 yesterday, 100
• 28:05
  today, and then it's going to be 97 tomorrow and then who, thank
• 28:09
  God, Thursday, it's going to cool down.
• 28:10
  So we just got to survive a couple more days.
• 28:12
  But that's all right with me. I'm staying in the AC and and
• 28:15
  sweating games. So hopefully you guys are doing
• 28:17
  the same. But good luck and I will see you
• 28:19
  tomorrow for episode 3 O 6 on a big Wednesday, a big hump day
• 28:24
  edition of the all systems go sports betting podcast owered by
• 28:27
  rhythm. Good luck, everybody, enjoy the
• 28:30
  sweats. Let's get some winners in
• 28:31
  baseball and go Seattle Storm.