Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 51 - 5/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 51 - 5/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 51 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
0:36
end. The weekend is upon us and we
0:38
got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
0:40
It is going to be a MLB Major League Baseball day on the pod.
0:44
We have a big Friday night slate with all night games here guys.
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And I have a 5 pack of sweats that I'm excited to share with
0:50
you, including a bunch of sharp steam moves, some good system
0:52
matches. I cannot wait to get right back
0:55
onto the diamond and sweat some Emily plays with you guys for
0:57
tonight. Now, looking back toward
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yesterday, we eked out a profitable winning day 2 and 1 +
1:03
0.37 units. First off, shout out to Rhythm.
1:07
Little golf clap, but rhythm helped us cash yet another bet
1:10
last night, the Celtics and the Pacers over.
1:13
Not only did we get a good number there, 224 1/2, it
1:16
actually ended up closing 225. So we beat the closing line, but
1:19
if you remember, the market was kind of stagnant.
1:22
But if you read between the lines, 224 1/2 up to 225, it
1:26
never fell down. It was either the same or moving
1:29
upward. And we recreated those box
1:30
scores where the pace of play and the offense had just led to
1:34
so many overs between these teams.
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So we played another over last night, came through Rhythm
1:39
helped us cash that bet because Rhythm had a prediction of
1:42
226.4, I believe, or two 26.2, which was again a number that
1:47
would have cashed the over and the over did cash.
1:49
Now, it was a little bit dicey because there was a moment or I
1:52
think it was 6 minutes in the second quarter where the Pacers
1:55
didn't score a single basket. So luckily they really turned it
1:58
on in the second-half, flew over the total.
2:00
So shout out to rhythm as we are able to get that Celtics over.
2:04
Also got the Baltimore Orioles. One of the craziest games I've
2:06
seen in a long time because the Orioles were up eight to two in
2:09
the ninth. And I'm like, hey, why didn't I
2:11
go -1 1/2 on the spread save, save a little bit of juice.
2:14
But if you guys noticed, they gave up.
2:16
What did they give up? Four runs in the ninth and the
2:19
game ended in the most weird way.
2:21
I've never seen this. I had played baseball growing up
2:23
my whole life, love baseball. I've been betting on baseball
2:27
every single season since what, 2010?
2:30
And I had never seen the game end on interference double play.
2:34
So luckily I were able to catch that one.
2:36
And if you're holding the -1 1/2, man, what a, what a sweat
2:39
that was there. But we did get the Orioles to
2:41
come through. Only loser was the Dallas Stars.
2:43
And Dallas Stars, they're down 2O.
2:45
They clawed back. Tyler Sagan tied it up, went to
2:48
double overtime, they end up losing on a Connor McDavid goal.
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So that was a tough break and was really annoying is that the
2:54
Stars had a 4 minute power play double minor to start the
2:57
overtime period and could not score.
2:59
But either way, I'll take a winning day every day of the
3:01
week. 2 and 1 + 0.37 units. And you may have had an even
3:04
better day because a couple of sharp report plays that I wrote
3:07
for veson.com day sweats. Yankees and the Padres both came
3:11
through as well. So a lot to get to on today's
3:13
pod 5 pack of MLB I'll just mention.
3:16
Didn't really see much in the NBA here for tonight.
3:18
I was looking at that total. This would be obviously game two
3:22
between The Mavericks and the T Wolves.
3:23
I didn't want to force it. Obviously we've been crushing.
3:26
I think we've won four straight over plays in the playoffs, but
3:29
not much of A rhythm, edge rhythm.
3:30
Had a two O 8.2 total. Fell two O 8 down to two O 7
3:34
1/2. I don't want to force anything.
3:35
So I ended up not playing that and then I was looking at the
3:37
hockey game. I saw some liability under
3:39
there. Under 5 1/2 is really juiced up
3:42
but not much movement as it's basically a pick em number.
3:44
So let's just think of what's been making us money.
3:46
We've have been been having a good year MLB A5 pack.
3:50
Now before we dive in our sweats, I have an announcement
3:52
to make. I have a pretty big announcement
3:54
because guess what I am going on Sunday.
3:58
Me, the wife and her brother, my brother-in-law, we are hopping
4:02
on a Uber or in an Uber I should say.
4:04
We're going to Logan Airport in Boston and we are flying out to
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Kenya, Africa. That's right.
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I've been keeping this under wraps, but we've been planning
4:13
this trip for over a year now. At this point, it's finally
4:15
here. So I'm going to be on safari in
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Kenya for about 12 days. I cannot wait.
4:21
This is actually the first time that I will be away from betting
4:25
and and taking a 12 day break from betting.
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I bet pretty much every day since I started even before I
4:30
got into the industry in 2011. But unfortunately that means no
4:33
podcasts for the next two weeks. I will be returning in about two
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weeks. The next pod here on All Systems
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Go will actually be not until June 10th.
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So I'm going to, I'm going to miss you guys.
4:44
I'm going to be out for a while, but this is a bucket list trip
4:48
for me. It's actually not my first time
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going to Africa. I studied abroad in Namibia,
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which is in basically S Western Africa, first country northwest
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of South Africa, on a Wildlife Conservation program where we're
5:01
trying to stop poaching and protect the Namib Desert lions
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as well as obviously rhinos. That worked with Save the Rhino
5:08
Trust. Anyway, I was 20 years old.
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It was the best time of my life. And my brother-in-law, he is a
5:13
huge wildlife guy, lives in San Diego, That's where my wife's
5:16
from. He's always wanted to go to
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Africa. So we've been planning this trip
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for over a year. It's finally here and I cannot
5:22
wait. We are going to be flying into
5:23
Nairobi. I'm a little bit worried about
5:25
the flight because I am not a good flyer.
5:27
I get cramped, I get agitated. Maybe I'll take something to
5:31
ease the flight and knock me out, if you know what I'm
5:33
saying. But it's going to be about 17
5:35
hours. We are flying from Boston to
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Dubai, which is like 12 hours, then another five or six to
5:43
Kenya. But I cannot wait.
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We're going to be staying in lodges.
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We're going to be going to the national parks.
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We're going to spend a day at the David Sheldrick Wildlife
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Trust for the elephants, which all the poachers, which are
5:56
probably the worst people in the world.
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I don't know how you can kill such an amazing creature.
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But anyway, the orphan elephants, they'll bring them to
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this orphanage and we're going to meet the elephants, We're
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going to play with them, we're going to feed them milk.
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I cannot wait. It's going to be a huge, huge
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day here. And I had so much fun in Africa.
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I've been dying to go back. And finally it's happening.
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So we're going to be staying in these lodges, we're going on
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game drives, we're going to be hanging out at different
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conservancies looking at rhinos, elephants, lions, the whole
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deal. So I cannot wait.
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But in terms of the pod, I just want you guys to know that I'll
6:27
miss you again. I'll be back June 10th.
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I'll give you I'm actually hoping I don't know what the
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deal is going to be with like Wi-Fi and Internet out there,
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but I'm hoping to kind of tweet along my journey.
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I won't give you any insights into sports betting, but
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hopefully I'll let you know what it's like in Africa.
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It's a bucket list trip. I can't wait.
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I'm so excited, but I'm going to miss you and I'm going to miss
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sports betting. But either way guys, break here
6:50
from the pod for about two weeks while I am off on safari in
6:54
Kenya, which even when I say it out loud, it's almost kind of
6:56
unbelievable. But I loved Africa and I studied
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abroad and I cannot wait to get back.
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And this is a whole other part of the continent which is going
7:04
to be very interesting and very exciting.
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So anyway, I'll be on safari last pod until I return for the
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next pod on June 10th. Anyway guys, now that
7:14
announcement here is in the books.
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Let's talk about some sweats here for today.
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Let's have a good day, a good pod, final pod before I I fly
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halfway across the world and spend 2 weeks in Africa.
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Anyway, let's start off with some MLB sweats here for
7:28
tonight. Guys, we got five of them.
7:29
Can we get three or more? That's the goal first, but on
7:32
the board for me, Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
7:36
This is a game that was kind of a late opener 'cause you're
7:38
waiting on the starting pitchers finally dropped and then boom, a
7:41
ton of steam hit the Atlanta Braves.
7:43
So going into this match up, the Atlanta Braves coming with
7:47
record of 29 and 18. They ended up taking two out of
7:50
three against the Cubs, the series at Wrigley.
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Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates, they lost two of three
7:56
against San Fran and they had AI believe was a 5 nothing six to
7:59
one lead late. It was a Paul Skeens day
8:01
yesterday and their bullpen coughed it up.
8:03
So obviously a bad beat if you played him yesterday.
8:05
But for the opening game of the series here for tonight, the
8:09
Atlanta Braves are going with Ray Kerr.
8:12
Ray Kerr, I believe is a lefty. Yes he is and he might be an
8:16
opener, but he's one and O 2.89 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Bailey Falter, another lefty.
8:22
He is 2 and two of the 3.53 ERA. So what we've seen across the
8:25
market here, well, as soon as this line dropped the late
8:27
opener, boom, wise guys were locked and loaded, ready to go
8:31
and they hammered the Atlanta Braves.
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Atlanta Braves open this game around a -, 155 road favorite,
8:36
then now been steamed up to round -165 -, 170.
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So that is really notable to me that when oddsmakers set the
8:44
number, you got to remember wise guys or wise gals, people who
8:46
set their own numbers and play basically the discrepancies,
8:50
they said, hey, this opener is way too low, therefore there's
8:52
value on Atlanta. Maybe they had Atlanta, you know
8:55
-175 to begin with. So when it opened -155 boom,
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they hammered the Braves. So like the fact that as soon as
9:01
it dropped and was available to bet, all smart money hit
9:04
Atlanta. Now I'm going to bank on
9:05
Atlanta's offense. They're hitting 250 with 52
9:08
homers, 218 runs scored. You look at the Pittsburgh
9:12
Pirates, they're hitting two 2749 homers, 198 runs scored in
9:18
particular with two lefties on the bump.
9:20
Have these teams sit against southpaws?
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Braves hitting 254, Pittsburgh only hitting 239.
9:25
So Braves have been better against lefties than the
9:28
Pittsburgh Pirates. Also system matches got quite a
9:31
few on Atlanta Rd. Favorites in general.
9:33
Very simple system, but they're 145 and one O 458% with a 3%
9:38
ROI. Also system match here, favorite
9:41
when the total falls. So this total open at a lot of
9:43
shops at 9 1/2. It is now down to nine with a
9:47
total falls in the game. The favorite in those games have
9:50
gone 148 and 9461 percent, 4% ROI.
9:54
And then also classic non division favorite.
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Lack of familiarity, benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
10:00
If you look at some home Rd. splits, they also look pretty
10:02
good in favor of the Braves. The Braves are 13 and 10 on the
10:06
road, Pittsburgh just 10 and 14 at home.
10:09
Also look at the bullpens. This is important because we saw
10:11
Pittsburgh's bullpen completely implode yesterday and hopefully
10:15
that's a benefit to Atlanta because Atlanta has the third
10:17
best bullpen ERA in baseball 3.15.
10:20
Pittsburgh has the fifth worst bullpen ERA at 4.66.
10:24
So hopefully Kerr greater than falter here today as starters.
10:27
Then of course, hopefully that holds true.
10:29
The Atlanta bullpens better than Pittsburgh.
10:31
And then lastly, very simple but run differential.
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How many runs do you score? How many runs do you give up?
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It's almost like point differential in in the NFL.
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Just a very rudimentary way of looking how looking at how
10:42
strong or weak a team is. We have the Braves plus 49
10:46
Pittsburgh Pirates -31 so Braves with a late opener.
10:51
Kerr is the starter, not Steve Kerr, Ray Kerr.
10:54
But the line got steamed toward Atlanta.
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Bunch of system matches. Non division favorite.
10:58
I'm going with the Braves. Hopefully start off the day with
11:00
a winner. I got the Braves at -165 keep on
11:04
cruising. Next bet up Toronto and Detroit.
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Big match up here. Couple American League teams
11:10
coming to this one. The Toronto Blue Jays are 23 and
11:13
26. Had a big winner in the opener
11:15
last night. 9 to one, taking care of business.
11:19
They're basically a -, 1 O five row dog Blue Jays by the way, or
11:23
sorry, the the Tigers, by the way. 23 and 27.
11:27
The pitching match up for tonight.
11:28
Alec Manoa is going for Toronto. He is one and one with an ERA of
11:33
three. He'll be opposed by Matt
11:35
Manning. Another ready O and one 4.88
11:38
ERA. Now this game opened at
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basically a pick em. Both sides are around -110 and
11:43
we've seen Toronto get absolutely hammered by smart
11:46
money. Toronto went from -110 all the
11:48
way up to -125 -, 130. So that is a huge, you know,
11:53
1520 cent steam move in favor of Toronto.
11:56
It's also notable that Toronto they're only getting around 65%
11:59
of bets. So it's not like they're getting
12:00
90% of bets. It's a basically a slight or you
12:03
know, modest public support, but we know it's not just public,
12:06
it's also smart money based on that big adjustment in favor of
12:09
Toronto. Now Toronto First off, would
12:12
just match that classic non division favorite system match,
12:14
lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
12:17
They'd also match as a road favorite.
12:18
We just talked about Atlanta a second ago. 58 percent, 3% ROI
12:22
this year, sweet spot, short Rd. favorite -130 or less.
12:26
Those teams are 78 and 5957% with a 6% ROI.
12:32
Also, if you look at favorites with team set, favorites with
12:35
Steam $0.10 or more in their favor against the team who
12:38
missed the playoffs the previous year.
12:39
So your favorite you're expected to win.
12:41
You got Steam tells you smart money came in your favor and
12:45
you're playing a team that's probably not very good, didn't
12:46
make the playoffs last year. That system is 78 and 4563% with
12:52
a 3% ROI. And in particular, Alec Manoa,
12:55
if you remember this guy, he started his career very well and
12:58
then he completely imploded, had a terrible year last year.
13:00
He was so bad that I think he got sent down to like the Gulf
13:03
Coast League, but he's come back and pitched pretty well.
13:06
Alec Manoa on the year or in particular his last two starts,
13:10
he's been great. He's allowed zero earned runs
13:12
and 1414 innings pitched against the Twins in the Rays, he went
13:16
seven innings, no runs in his last two starts.
13:18
So he's throwing the ball pretty well right now.
13:20
Meanwhile, manning 5.91 ERA and two May starts.
13:24
He's given up seven runs in 10.2 innings against the Marlins and
13:27
the D backs. He's been getting knocked around
13:29
here recently. Also manning 5.82 ERA at home,
13:33
3.38 on the road. He's been better on the road,
13:35
worse at home. He's home here tonight.
13:37
And also I'm going to look at kind of recent performance here
13:40
in terms of the pitching. Blue Jays the last 10 games, 2.6
13:43
O team ERA Tigers last 10 games, five point O 7 ERA.
13:48
So Manoa has been throwing the ball great this game open out of
13:51
pick em got steamed up heavy toward Toronto, better pitching
13:55
staff, tons of system matches. I'm going Toronto here to
13:58
hopefully get a win for us. I got the Jays at -125 next one,
14:03
let's go to Saint Louis, Chicago Cubs and the Saint Louis
14:07
Cardinals. This is the opener of a
14:09
three-game series. Just mentioned the Cubs 27 and
14:12
24 again dropped two or three against the Braves.
14:14
They lost 3 nothing yesterday as a -, 115 home favorite.
14:18
Meanwhile, the Cardinals 23 and 26, they just swept the Orioles.
14:21
I couldn't believe it that they swept the O's in that series.
14:24
They won that series finale 5:00 to 4:00 as a plus one O 8 home
14:27
dog pitching matchup tonight. Very important.
14:30
Shota Imanaga, Say it with me, Shota Imanaga.
14:33
This guy has been unbelievable. I believe he's now a pretty
14:37
substantial favorite for NL Rookie of the Year.
14:39
I think he's like close to even money at this point, but this
14:41
guy's been crazy. Hopefully I don't jinx him.
14:43
I'm on the Cubs, by the way, but Imanaga 5 and O 0.84 ERA.
14:49
Cardinals, meanwhile, are going to go with Miles Michaelis, the
14:51
veteran righty. He's three and five with a 5.77
14:54
ERA. Now.
14:56
This line opened Cubbies around a modest -125 -, 130 Rd.
15:00
favorite. Cubs have been steamed up all
15:02
the way from let's call it -125 up to -150.
15:06
So about a $0.25 steam move in favor of Chicago tells us big
15:10
money here. Got down hard on the Cubbies
15:12
laying the chalk backing Imanaga.
15:15
The Cubs, meanwhile, are getting 83% of bets, but 90% of the
15:19
money. So a little bit low bets, higher
15:21
dollars bet split, which we always look for in addition to a
15:23
big $0.25 steam move. Tons of system matches on the
15:27
Cubbies. They are a favorite off a loss
15:29
versus an opponent off a win 160 and one O 5 this year, 60% four
15:34
percent ROI team of the winning record coming off a loss 62
15:38
percent 4% ROI Rd. favorites 58% Rd. favorites off a loss 62%.
15:45
Also, we have a good favorite off a loss versus a bad team.
15:48
This is my top system match, but you are a team of the above 500
15:51
record. You're off a loss, so you want
15:53
to bounce back your favorite. You're expected to win.
15:55
And then the last cherry on top is you're playing a bad team.
15:58
And by bad team, I mean that you have a below 500 record.
16:01
That system match is 63 and or sorry, 65 and 3664 percent 15%
16:07
ROI matches here with the cubbies Also cruel to betting
16:13
favorite low total. So this total is 8.
16:15
It's juiced up under. Looks like it may get down to 7
16:17
1/2. That'll be good for the Cubs as
16:19
the favorite for your amount of expected run scored more likely
16:22
to come from quote UN quote that better team Cubs have the better
16:25
offense they've been. They've scored 218 runs versus
16:28
only 189 for Saint Louis. When Imanaga starts, the Cubs
16:32
are eight and one. He has a 0.69 ERA and four May
16:36
starts. He's only gotten better.
16:37
He's only given up two earned runs in 26 innings pitched in
16:40
the month of May. Meanwhile, Michaelis 5.57 ERA
16:44
and four May starts. He's given up thirteen runs in
16:46
21 innings. And miles Michael has actually
16:48
been worse at home. 6.2 ERA at home versus 5.51 on the road.
16:54
So add it all up here, guys. You had me at Immanaga, guys
16:56
been great. Good steam toward the cubbies,
16:59
tons of system matches, Basically all the favorite awful
17:01
loss systems. Corelative betting, favorite
17:03
load total. I'm going cubbies here.
17:05
Hopefully get back on track. I got Chicago at -150 next one
17:10
up, let's go to the Colorado Rockies.
17:13
The Rockies, which I've never been to Colorado.
17:15
I love to go one day, but Philadelphia and the Colorado
17:18
Rockies, I think you might know where I'm going here.
17:20
It's see, it's, it's the Phillies, man.
17:22
The Phillies are unbelievable. I know I was reading something
17:24
about how they're off to the best start, I believe, since the
17:27
Mariners, the year where they set the record.
17:29
What was that like early 2000s, 2001?
17:32
Remember that Mariners team had 118 wins or something like that.
17:37
But I also noticed that Philly is only playing bad teams, like
17:40
they've only played I think one series against a team with an
17:42
above 500 record. But who cares?
17:44
You got to play your your schedule.
17:46
But who are they playing tonight?
17:48
One of the worst teams, maybe the worst team in baseball, the
17:50
Colorado Rockies. So I'm going Philly here.
17:53
I'll give you a little bit a little bit of background though.
17:56
The Phillies is the first game of three-game series.
17:59
They're 37 and 14. They have won six straight.
18:02
They just swept the Rangers won five to two yesterday as a -,
18:05
200 home favorite. You know, all the Rockies just
18:08
16 and 33. It's been a bad year.
18:10
They just dropped two or three against the A's crazy game
18:13
yesterday. Of course, the A's the day
18:14
after. They don't come up through for
18:15
me and extras then up coming I think they're down four and
18:18
scored five in like the 10th or or the 11th.
18:21
They won 8:50 extras beating the the Rockies.
18:26
The Rockies in that game were a plus one O 5 row dog.
18:28
For tonight's series opener, the Phils are going with lefty
18:32
Christopher Sanchez. He's two and three with a 3.31
18:35
ERA. Meanwhile, the Rockies are going
18:37
with the lefty tie block, who is one and two with a 5.1 for ERA.
18:42
Now, this is a kind of a bigger number, but I think it's big for
18:44
a reason. This game open Phillies around a
18:46
-, 185 road favorite. Now the Phills have been steamed
18:49
up to -200 so big, big movement in their favor.
18:53
This tells me based on that $0.15 steam move toward Philly,
18:56
that the pros are not worried about the total.
18:58
They're not saying this is too high.
18:59
I got to lay off. No, they saw value in this
19:02
number. Maybe they had this thing, you
19:03
know -200 to begin with, which is why they hammered it as soon
19:06
as it dropped. But a lot of good angles here
19:09
for Philly. Now they're getting 90% of money
19:11
line bets in dollars. So heavy public support.
19:14
How do you not ride Philly? But also it's not just public.
19:16
We know based on the line move that wise guys have hit the
19:19
Phillies as well. Tons of system matches here, Rd.
19:23
favorites, which we've talked about quite a bit today,
19:25
matching with the Cubbies, Toronto and Atlanta.
19:28
But also if you look at a road favorite getting $0.10 of steam
19:33
or more in their favor, those teams are 28 and 1171 percent,
19:37
23% ROI. I'm going to bank on the
19:39
Phillies offense hopefully getting a boost going to Coors,
19:42
but they are hitting 2426060 homers, 277 runs scored.
19:48
Rockies are hitting 24642 homers, only 199 runs scored.
19:54
Sanchez in particular, he's been great. 2.75 ERA and three May
19:57
starts. The Phillies have won all three
19:59
of those games. He's only given up six runs in
20:02
his last 19.2 innings pitched. Home Rd. splits really scream
20:05
Philly as well. Philly is 15 and six on the
20:08
road. Colorado is only 9 and 12 at
20:10
home. Phillies are plus 93 in run
20:13
differential. Rockies are -74 Phillies,
20:16
meanwhile are 32 and 1120% ROI, 74% win rate when they are a
20:22
chalk favorite. That is the best chalk team in
20:25
Major League Baseball. So it's a big number.
20:27
But as always, bet Tris not bet to win.
20:29
That means you're risking one unit trying to get a half unit
20:31
back. I'm going Philly here at -200
20:34
hopefully to get it done in the Colorado Rockies.
20:37
Last game of the night. I'm going to mention this game
20:41
as a value play. Maybe not the sharpest play,
20:43
May, who knows, maybe we'll get some late steam in our favor.
20:46
But I'm going to go with the Cleveland Guardians.
20:48
This is a late game tonight. 9:38 PM Eastern Time is your
20:51
first pitch. Looking at the match up here,
20:54
the Guardians, we've bet on them quite a bit.
20:56
They've come through for us quite a bit here.
20:58
But the Cleveland Guardians come in 33 and 17.
21:01
They are, let's see, 123456789 and one their last ten games.
21:07
They just swept the Mets. On the flip side, the A's or the
21:10
Angels, I should say, 20 and 30. The Angels just took two or
21:14
three against Houston. A bit of a surprise their
21:16
divisional match up. But to me it's not a huge, you
21:19
know, line move play because Cleveland basically opened -105
21:24
-, 110. They're still -105 -, 110.
21:27
So it's basically a pick em number.
21:29
But to me it's a value play getting a really good team at
21:32
basically a pick em price against a sub 500 team.
21:35
So pitching match up here for tonight, we have Logan Allen
21:39
going for the Guardians. He is five and two 4.91 ERA.
21:44
He'll be opposed by Patrick Sandoval, another lefty who's
21:47
two and six with a 4.59 ERA. Now line hasn't really moved so
21:52
it's basically still minus one O 5 -, 110 Cleveland.
21:56
But some reasons to like Cleveland here for tonight.
21:58
First will be the offense of Cleveland.
22:00
They have scored 244 runs this year versus 219 for the LA
22:04
Angels. Cleveland has the better
22:06
bullpen. They're actually number one in
22:09
bullpen ERA this year, 2.52. Angels have the third worst
22:13
bullpen ERA at 4.94. So massive advantage here when
22:17
we get into the later innings, hopefully in favor of Cleveland.
22:20
Now both teams are coming off a day off, so one system that
22:23
match that I love is both day off.
22:25
Take the favorite. Technically, Cleveland isn't the
22:27
favorite. It's basically a pick'em price.
22:29
But all things being equal, you know better team here is
22:32
Cleveland. That day off hopefully will be a
22:34
benefit to them. I'm also going to put a lot of
22:36
stock in the home Rd. Cleveland is 15 and 11 on the
22:39
road. Angels are 6 and 16 at home.
22:42
One of the worst home teams in baseball, in particular Logan
22:45
Allen. He's been better in the month of
22:47
May, 4 point O 5 ERA and four May starts and he's actually
22:50
been better on the road than at home and he's on the road
22:52
tonight. He has a road ERA of 2.89 versus
22:55
7.33 at home. Then lastly, run differential,
22:59
how good or bad are you plus 65 Cleveland -28 for the Angels.
23:05
So I'm going to go Cleveland here.
23:06
Guys, if you're giving me Cleveland at a pick em price, a
23:08
really good team, it's a sub 500 team coming off a day off, I'm
23:13
going to go Cleveland this spot. Much better bullpen and let's
23:16
see if this maybe steams up after the pot, maybe we start to
23:18
see Cleveland creep up toward -115 But either way, guys, to me
23:22
it's a value play, not a sharp play.
23:24
You got to know the difference when you're going into a bet.
23:27
You don't know why you're betting something.
23:28
Is it because of a good sharp line move?
23:31
Is it because of a good low bets, higher dollars bet split?
23:33
Is there a good contrarian value?
23:35
Is it a good system match? Or is it a good team with a lot
23:39
of intangibles at a really good price?
23:41
To me, that's where this lands with Cleveland.
23:43
Good team, good price. So I'm going to Cleveland.
23:46
Guardians almost called in the Tribe.
23:48
Not anymore, they're the Guardians.
23:49
I got the Guardians at -110 so the Braves, the Blue Jays, the
23:55
Cubs, the Phillies, and the Guardians.
23:57
Can we get three out of four or sorry, three O 3 out of five or
24:01
more. That's the goal here tonight in
24:03
Major League Baseball. Now that about does it for
24:06
today's pod episode 51. But reminder, if you enjoy this
24:09
podcast that hopefully has helped you to cash a few bets,
24:13
maybe think through betting a little bit differently.
24:15
Maybe you love betting, but you never really had kind of a
24:17
philosophy or a model. Now you have something to lean
24:20
on by looking at the sports betting market like the Wall
24:23
Street traders approach the stock market looking at how
24:25
numbers move, because when numbers move, that tells you
24:28
something. Numbers move because of smart
24:30
money. Maybe they they could also move
24:32
because of an injury or the weather, but mostly it's going
24:34
to move because of smart money coming in.
24:36
So if we can again learn how to read the market, find ideally a
24:42
situation where we're betting against the masses and we're
24:44
with the sharps. Hey, that's the whole point.
24:46
That's the little blueprint of being a data-driven sports
24:49
better. So if this pot has helped you to
24:51
become a sharper better, then can you do something for me on
24:54
the last day before we take a two week break as I head off to
24:57
Africa on the once in a lifetime safari in Kenya?
25:01
I still can't believe it. I'm getting so excited.
25:03
But can you do something for me before I leave?
25:05
Can you help me grow this pod organically?
25:08
Can you recommend this pod to a friend?
25:10
Can you secondly, and maybe more importantly, can you please give
25:14
this podcast a 5 star review? If you give it a 5 star review,
25:18
it only takes a second, but it really goes a long way to kind
25:21
of gaining traction for the pod, gaining respect and credibility,
25:24
giving us more exposure. Those five star reviews really
25:27
help. So if you are on Spotify or of
25:30
course Apple with iTunes, I'd really, really be a great
25:34
benefit and a great help if you could give this pod a 5 star
25:37
review. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod
25:40
and you are intrigued by data-driven sports betting and
25:43
maybe you want to learn more about how to become a successful
25:46
data-driven better, then guess what?
25:48
I got something for you. I wrote a book.
25:50
That's right, I'm an author. Not just a sports betting
25:53
analyst, I'm an author too. But I wrote a book called the
25:56
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
25:58
So I know Memorial Day weekend is here.
26:00
Father's Day isn't far off. We got somebody who's got a
26:03
birthday coming up. You have no freaking clue what
26:05
to get them. How about you buy the Everything
26:07
Guide to Sports Betting? Just go to Amazon.com, type in
26:10
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you
26:13
or for friends, support the team, make me happy, but more
26:16
importantly, get some knowledge because the the book only cost
26:19
like 20 bucks. I think it's like even like 1718
26:21
bucks, but it's going to give you a lot of information,
26:23
something to hold in your hand, something to refer back to.
26:26
It talks about how lines are set, how and why they move, how
26:28
to read line move and how to locate sharp action, how to
26:31
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
26:34
how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
26:37
my book, the everything guide to sports betting.
26:39
So pick one up when I see at the book, I'm going to sign the my
26:43
copy of the book. I'm going to buy you a beer or
26:45
maybe a ginger ale if you don't drink.
26:46
But seriously, thank you. I really do appreciate it.
26:49
Lastly, the last thing I got to tell you about is rhythm as well
26:54
as juice reel, my two favorite sports betting apps.
26:57
You know why I like them because they're not opinion, they're not
27:00
hot takes, they're not here to get clicks.
27:02
They're here to help you win. So if you haven't done it yet, I
27:04
want you to sign up for a free seven day trial of rhythm as
27:08
well as a free seven day trial of juice reel.
27:10
You can sign up by clicking the link inside the bio description
27:14
of this podcast. You can also find some sign up
27:17
links on my profile at Josh under score Insights.
27:19
You can give me a follow if you haven't done it yet.
27:22
But First off, Rhythm. I hope you know about Rhythm by
27:24
now because Rhythm helped us cash what our fourth straight
27:27
over bet and the NBA Rhythm is fantastic.
27:30
I love Rhythm because they're using the data to find an edge.
27:34
You can create your own models. You can track models that are
27:36
recommended by Rhythm out. It's great for both player props
27:39
and for game pics. So if you haven't done it yet,
27:42
go sign up for Rhythm. You can use it while I'm gone
27:44
and cash some bets hopefully. And then of course, Juice Reel.
27:47
I love Juice Reel too because Juice Reel First off is a great
27:50
app to sync your sports betting account to Juice Reel.
27:53
And then when you make a bet in your book, it'll automatically
27:55
upload to Juice Reel. You can track your performance
27:58
and if you think you're a good sports better, you can make
28:00
money. Juice Reel can help you make
28:01
money. You can actually put your picks
28:03
up for sale. This is kind of cool, but maybe
28:06
you say, hey, I'm damn good at NBA.
28:09
You can put in Juice Reel. Hey, come buy a week of my picks
28:12
for 5 bucks. You put that up there people pay
28:15
it you could make money. It's really a way to democratize
28:18
sports betting and allow you to bet on yourself.
28:21
So that's pretty cool, but also like it for their recommended
28:24
best bets from the from our guy Robo Jackson as well as
28:29
arbitrage opportunity sharp mush opportunities.
28:31
It's a great app again sign up for a rhythm 7 day free trial
28:34
from the link in this bio description of the pod but that
28:38
about does it episode 51 the last pod before I go across the
28:42
world and spend 2 weeks in Africa.
28:44
I cannot wait bucket list once in a lifetime I'm going to miss
28:47
you guys. I'm not going to lie, I'm going
28:49
to miss grinding and sports betting, But you know what,
28:51
sometimes when you take a break, you realize how much you love
28:54
something. So when I'm when I'm tracking
28:57
rhinos or when we are petting elephants or going on game
29:01
drives and watching lions, you know, tear apart a a gazelle.
29:05
Well, I miss sports betting. Probably not, but there'll be
29:08
moments where, hey, I'm going to miss sports betting and I'm
29:11
going to realize how much I love it by taking a break.
29:13
It's also one thing I'll mention is there's nothing wrong with
29:16
you know, because in sports betting, you know, I do this
29:18
podcast every day of the week or every weekday.
29:21
You know, I pretty much cover the market.
29:22
I've been doing it every day. Mine, you know, not my whole
29:25
life, but since I've been 21 years old.
29:27
I just turned 37. And you're so kind of like in
29:30
the grind of sports betting that sometimes when you take a little
29:33
bit of a break, it re energizes you, It refreshes your
29:36
batteries, you feel refreshed, you feel more energized.
29:39
You miss it, you realize how much you love it.
29:41
I'm hoping that this little break here, even though I'll
29:44
miss the sweats, I'll be literally sweating as it's like
29:47
100° in Kenya, but hopefully it'll make me miss and love
29:51
sports betting even more. With that being said, guys,
29:54
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
29:58
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods are Mohegan
30:00
Sun Town in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or plain Ridge
30:03
park casino R.E.M. Jim Springfield or in my neck of
30:06
the woods at the Encore, or of course, out in the desert with
30:10
the true grinders, Get Down, where Billy Walters sends his
30:12
number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
30:15
Point. Or jumping in the stadium swim
30:17
pool when the Celtics overcashes for you at Circa, getting a
30:21
victory burger at the end of the night, wherever it may be.
30:23
You're going to walk up to me. You're going to show me that
30:25
Celtics over ticket. Thank you, Rhythm.
30:27
You're going to show me an Orioles ticket.
30:29
Maybe you had the Yankees or the Padres earlier in the day.
30:31
Sharp Report plays for beeson.com whatever you do,
30:34
don't show me that Dallas Stars ticket I thought we were going
30:36
to go three and O, but I'll take a two and one winning day but
30:40
guess what first one's on me, next one's on you we're going to
30:42
post about the book sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long.
30:46
So wish you the best of luck everyone.
30:47
My parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian bet
30:51
against the public place yourself on the side of the
30:52
house always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:55
Will smart money win every time of course not but always
30:58
remember we're playing a long game it's always a marathon, not
31:01
a Sprint. If we can consistently bypass
31:04
the games with the red flags, fearless but disciplined
31:06
grinders with blinders, get down on the games that fit our model
31:10
against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
31:13
avoid parlays, get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
31:15
to be successful sports bettors long term.
31:18
So enjoy the sweats everyone. It's going to be a bit of a
31:21
minute here. I'm not going to see you guys
31:23
until June 10th, so have a great couple weeks here.
31:27
Hopefully everything I've taught you and shown you the ropes
31:31
along the way, you use it to your advantage and have a great
31:33
couple of winning weeks here. But wish me the best of luck and
31:37
keep an eye out for my Twitter account.
31:38
Give me a follow at Josh under score insights.
31:40
I'm hoping to get to get Internet access into maybe live,
31:44
not live tweet, but basically tweet my Africa safari.
31:47
So maybe you'll see me with an elephant or tracking lions or
31:51
rhinos. I'm getting so excited.
31:53
I can't wait and hopefully I can, you know, give you a little
31:56
glimpse into what what I'll be doing.
31:58
But thank you all. I'll miss you again.
32:01
I'll be back June 10th. Good luck.
32:03
Have a great couple weeks and I'll see you back in a couple
32:06
weeks for episode 52 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
32:10
podcast Powered by Rhythm. And by the way, hopefully when I
32:13
get back, the Celtics will be in the NBA Finals.
32:15
Wouldn't that be nice? But good luck everybody.
32:18
Next time you see me, hopefully I'll be rested, rejuvenated with
32:20
a nice tan with a lot of great stories and great photos.
32:24
But Africa, here I come. Good luck everybody, have a
32:27
great day.