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Football at Four: A Look at Eagles Fantasy Football Props · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

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  Speaker 1: The Football and four is powered by the Inside of
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  the Birds podcast is brought you by Bet three sixty five.
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  Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At
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  Bet three sixty five, Adam Kaplan. One week from today,
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  the Eagles report they'll be on the practice field on Wednesday. Well,
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  how will they do? What does Vegas say? We'll look
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  at the individuals. Jalen Hurts has been in the news
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  a lot over the last twenty four hours. Adam Caplin.
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  We'll see what Vegas thinks about his upcoming season today
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  as we'll look at some prop bets for some of
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  the Eagles offensive players. But Jalen Hurts always a polarizing discussion,
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  is he not?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, look the ESPN, the rankings. You and Jeff
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  talked about it yesterday. Look, this is just something that
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  hurts us how to deal with. Look every week you
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  go back, He's always had the chip on his shoulder.
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  What happened to him in Alabama forced him to transferred
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  to Oklahoma and he gets drafted to Beagles back up. Whence
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  the situation with Eagles goes sound, he becomes a starter.
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  You guys weren't happy with Hurts. His performance at twenty one,
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  so they sue heavily to Shaun Watson. So Jalen had
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  to deal with at it. To his credit, he just
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  kept fighting through it and you saw what he did
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  in twenty twenty two. It's pretty amazing, isn't it. You know,
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  if you just to the grindstone, keep working and you
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  could have a great season. So it is interesting though, Mike,
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  when we turn the page and Jeff Mocher and I
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  did our show today. We did team props and player props,
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  the fantasy props, which we'll talked about a couple of
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  them today. It's just funny how the odds bakers, look,
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  they saw Lancer Hurtz through for underd three thousand yards.
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  That can't happen two years in a row. That's that's
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  our thinking. The prop is thirty two hundred point five
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  yards of the over unders minus one ten. Look, I
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  get it, the offense will go through Buckley again, that's
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  not going to change as long as he's healthy. But
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  how could Hurts. I mean, you can't be averaging like
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  one hundred and eight yards a game. That's it's hard
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  to see.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, So let's look at the pro for Jalen Hurts
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  this year out there, everybody's talking about Hurts. Where does
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  he fit in the pantheon of the great quarterbacks in
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  this league? I guess one of the problems is Hurt's
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  numbers generally don't stack up against the other guys. So
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  the over runder thirty two hundred and a half yards
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  is the passing six hundred and a half rushing and
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  nineteen and a half passing touchdowns. It's not a ton
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  of passing touchdowns. A lot of rushing yards though, So
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  that's it for Hurts. Six hundred rushing, thirty two hundred passing,
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  nineteen passing touchdowns.
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  Speaker 2: And so Hurts average on nine to three yards point
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  five per game show last season throwing the football. And
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  I know, Mike, you've asked me this, and my feeling
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  has been all off season. I'll throw a little bit
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  more than they did last season. Yes, they won the
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  Show by running the ball like crazy. The only NFL
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  team to run the ball more than they throw it
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  in the first half of games, which is typically the opposite.
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  You always come out throwing more. You go back to
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  the really going back fifty or some more. You throw
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  it in the first half, that run it, you win.
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  But Eagles were the anomaly. It worked. Why would they
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  go why would they go back to what they used
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  to do? Because it's working. It's why they redid Barkley's
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  contract after one year, which is unheard of. So but
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  doesn't mean, look, now here's the thing to throw the
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  ball more. Look, let you know, they because of Barkley
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  and somewhat of Hurts, they they had so many leads,
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  so they don't have to throw the football. So the
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  feeling here is Mike that they'll throw a little bit.
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  You know, they've got a minimum of five defensive starters changing,
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  so maybe the defense won't be quite as good to
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  be able to throw the ball more. That's that's the thinking,
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  all right.
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  Speaker 1: So obviously Jalen Hurts doesn't win everybody over, but he
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  wins a lot of games. What's the over under on
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  the wins there? Right, That's all that really matters for him.
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  Not the rushing yards, not the panting yards, not the
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  passing touchdowns. But what is Saquon Barkley going to do
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  for an encore over two thousand yards last year? Where
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  are they set in the number for this year? Yeah?
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  Speaker 2: And he sat out the final game, which you know
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  it's funny. And so as you know that we talked
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  about on your show, that was a big controversy. Deagles
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  were obviously clearly right by not risking him, and they
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  didn't do that, and he, as you said, he ran
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  for over two thousand yards despite missing the last game.
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  Now you look at the rushing yards prop, it's fifteen
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  hundred point five the overs plus one hundred, which means
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  the money he's on a going runner, which is minus
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  one twenty. That's interesting, Mike. Look, he's not getting two
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  thousand yards. It's not going to happen. No one's ever
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  done it before back to back seasons, which makes sense.
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  But the odds makers, Mike, last year they were barely
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  over one thousand on their prop, and I thought it
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  was ridiculous. I mean, I get it that he had
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  a big injury history, but I don't see. This is
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  where I don't think the odds makers want to do
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  these fantasy props. Either don't look at coaching, or they
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  don't look at function or the offense, so they don't
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  look in this case, the offensive line the best in football.
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  So why would you think Barkley wouldn't have a great game? Now,
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  if you're putting together a line on this. He's only
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  going to play twelve games, and okay, that's fine. If
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  you think he's going this five games, yeah, you could
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  put it around fifteen or sixteen hundred yards, maybe a
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  little bit less than that. So clearly to me, Mike,
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  they think there'll be some sort of regression either with injury,
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  if he won't be as successful.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Adam, Let's look at his touchdown number, because
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  that's eleven and a half, which is interesting because we
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  know Hurts. They don't have a rushing touchdown number here,
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  but he vultures a lot of those up so Barkley,
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  you know, he doesn't get into the end zone nearly
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  as much as he could.
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  Speaker 2: Mike, listen to these touchdown numbers for Hurts. Okay, going
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  back his first full season as a starter twenty twenty
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  one ten rushing twenty two, thirteen rushing two years ago, fifteen,
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  last season fourteen. Well, yeah, he's going to Boguart the touchdown.
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  So it's tough. I mean, now, the over under total
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  four Barkley here is eleven and a half touchdowns. The
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  over is minus one twenty five, So to clear, the
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  money's on the over. The unders is plus one oh five.
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  So if you don't think would be quite as good,
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  if you think you'll have eleven or fewer, you would
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  get plus money, which is which is look that that's
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  that's kind of a smart bat. Now he had a
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  career high thirteen rushing touchdowns, Kerr high two thousand and
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  five yards Akurer high and carries. Yeah, I see around
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  ten nine or ten maybe eleven. If I had to
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  take his side, MIC would be that under plus one
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  oh five. But you made the point at the top here,
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  which is the best one? You got the hurts and
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  the pushtush. I wonder what will happen if it gets
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  voted out for twenty six? I wonder what the rushing
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  what do you think I would give hurts like five
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  rushing touchdowns, maybe even less if it gets outlawed.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, So I expect about double digits from hurts.
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  We'll see where Barkley. That number, by the way, eleven
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  and a half for Saquon on the over under for
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  rushing touchdowns this year. If you like the under, you
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  can get a little value there plus one oh five.
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  If you think Barkley can't get in the end zone
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  as much this year, all right, aj Brown, he doesn't
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  have the big, gaudy number one wide receiver numbers. But
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  where did they set his receiving number.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it's not his fault. Two things. A they
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  became a running team and B he missed four games. Well,
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  of course the numbers are going to go down. He's
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  still by the way. By the way, he still for
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  winning over one thousand yards. People say that he had
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  down here, Well, his numbers were down for two reasons. Again,
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  he missed four games. He had the injury earlier in
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  the season, and we've seen what it looks like when
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  he doesn't play. It doesn't look very good. No, so,
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  and that's you know, we'll talk about training camp questions
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  next week, and that's part of what they have to answer.
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  They've they've got to be better when these guys can't play.
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  But when you look at the numbers, he's just under
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  eleven hundred yards last year, ten seventy nine in thirteen games,
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  big average per catch, lots of big plays over sixty yards,
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  you know, hurt for the deep ball. So the prop
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  here is eleven to fifty points five. It's the owner
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  and the overs minus one ten. Yeah, I could certainly
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  see why people might like the over if you're gonna
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  take one. Now again, Eagles are gonna be a rushing team,
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  but when they throw out, they're going to be successful
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  because it's we saw in the Super Bowl. Mike, if
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  you want to stop Barkley and the Chiefs put on
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  a specific front to stop Barkley, well, Eagle's gonna throw
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  the ball downfield. That's what Hurts loves to do, and
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  that helps AJ Brown a big time.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Adam Kaplan football at four. Here, let's go
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  to touchdowns for AJ Brown. You know, not a eye
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  popping number here, but if you like the over, there's
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  a little value on AJ brown touchdowns, Mike.
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  Speaker 2: The last two seasons is he was down on touchdowns
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  only seven this season, past season twenty three only seven.
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  Now he played by the way every game in twenty
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  two and twenty three, he only needs seven touchdowns. Now,
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  you got the Gotter factor. Clearly, you got the Hurts factor.
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  The touch push is a big deal, and the push
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  play takes away an opportune to get the ball there.
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  That's part of it. So yeah, he probably not gonna
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  be a high touchdown guy anymore. I think it's a
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  fair number so to win it, if you're gonna take
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  the over, you got to get at least dight and
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  the under for the money is at minus one twenty.
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  Speaker 1: All right, the other guy's interested. There's a whole conversation.
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  We can get it kind of spin off on this,
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  which is DeVonta Smith. His receiving yards. You look at
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  you say over under eight fifty and a half. Come on,
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  Devonte's better than that. But that's kind of been the
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  ballpark for him.
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  Speaker 2: Well, see again, when guys missed time, you have to
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  bake in. Well, what happened last year he only had
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  eight thirty three. Well, he missed four games. Okay, he
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  missed four games. Actually, it's been very durable Mike, you know,
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  throughout his career. But last season he set up the
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  last one then he had the injury. So yeah, he
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  only had eight thirty three. But that again is missing
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  a lot of time. If you just take the final
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  the last three years when h progresses a quarterback chick
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  ling twenty two, eleven ninety six, then two years ago
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  ten sixty six. Well, he was hurt last year, Devonte,
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  and he missed three games through the injury. One he
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  was rested. Certainly he only had a thirty three. This
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  is where I think they're totally missing this. Mike, his
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  receiving archer only eight fifty point five. We'll see they're
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  not taking in. It's almost like they didn't even look
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  up that he missed time. You'll hear me talk about this.
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  I was pretty passionate about it, as I am with
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  you right now. The over eight to fifty point five,
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  so you need at least day fifty one to win
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  that bet is over my one ten in the under.
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  It's also minus one ten. I'd be stunned if he
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  doesn't go over. I'll tell you that much that would surprise.
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  Speaker 1: Me, all right, And what about getting in the end zone,
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  because while his number of yards are down from AJ Brown's,
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  they're right about in the same ballpark. And there's value
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  here at plus one hundred for the touchdown number if
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  you want to go over.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Mike, you know it's interesting for the calm, skinny batman,
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  for a guy who is as Denny as he is,
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  you know, physical he is, it's really interesting. And he actually,
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  over the last two seasons technically has more touchdowns than
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  AJ Brown. Believe it or not, he is fifteen the
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  touchdowns could be fluky. I mean, the thing about DeVante
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  Smith is he could run deeper routes, he could run
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  shorter routes. You go on any kind of route that
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  you want, and he's really tough despite being as stinny
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  as he is. Now. It's interesting because they're taking an
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  average year sort of and the but I don't agree
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  with it. The total is six and a half, the
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  overs plus one hundred. Well, Smith did have fifteen in
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  the last two seasons. In fact, is twenty two receiving
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  touchdowns over the last three seasons, which would be over
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  that average total. So I'm a little surprised. You would
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  think that you think the over would be minus one ten.
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  It's not. It's plus one hundred. The under is minus
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  one twenty.
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  Speaker 1: All right, yesterday we talked to you. I don't know
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  if you saw this article that we were talking about yesterday.
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  There was somebody who basically was going through the commanders,
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  how many commanders would start on the Eagles.
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  Speaker 2: No, I didn't see that.
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  Speaker 1: One guy he had was Debo over Smith. Would you
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  rather Debo or Smith?
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  Speaker 2: Here's why Divo's got a major injury history. They're completely different.
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  Deebo is a guy you could line him up outside,
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  but he's a much better playing inside. He's got better
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  versatility than Smitty, but Smitty, to me, he's been more durable.
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  You worry about Deebo cmuel as he gets up there.
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  He's in a new offense. He is twenty nine. Diebo's
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  not the same player he once was. Look, he's a
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  really really talented guy, big big injury history. I'd rather
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  have Submitte. I'm not biased. You know, we don't inside
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  the Birds. We don't root for anything or anyone or
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  any team. But I'm just being honest about it. It's
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  if you would have asked me two years ago, different story.
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  Davante Smith is really really consistent. Now Deebo is gonna
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  be fun under Cliff Kingsbury. Who's the play caller for
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  the Washington Do you.
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  Speaker 1: Like Tunsil or Milatta?
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  Speaker 2: My lot, it's Tunsall, as one offensive line coach told me,
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  who looked at his tape from last year, because this
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  guy reviews every offensive lineman that he doesn't coach. I
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  remember him telling me that Tunsall he has four bad
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  plays a year. He probably had about nine or ten.
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  Still pretty good. But my lot I was elite last season.
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  He's a boy. He's great, Mike. It's one of the
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  all time Eagle stories, all right.
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  Speaker 1: The last one that we kind of scratched our heads
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  on a little bit. I don't know. I don't have
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  scratched her heads. We battled a little bit, Josh and
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  I Louvu versus Bond.
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  Speaker 2: Love Louisvu, but they're really different. Louvu is they both
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  can rush the passer. Louvu has been an incredible story
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  development a former undrafted free agent. Bond is better in covered.
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  Bond's a better football player. I know it's now I
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  say that it's only one year. Bond had the best
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  season of any linebacker last season pure linebacker. We're talking
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  about thirty four inside backer or forty three outside backer.
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  Louvu is a really interesting player. He's a self made player.
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  It's been on a number of teams, by the way,
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  let's not forget. But I'm willing to say that Bond
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  will come close to getting his success. So to have
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  Zach Bond. Now, he's a little bit older twenty nine.
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  Louvu Is may not maybe a year younger. They're a
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  little bit different in their deployment, but they're both really good.
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  Speaker 1: Who's he had Daniels over Hurts as well, which started
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  off the whole conversation.
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  Speaker 2: Well here's the problem with that, right, but real quick,
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  So with the Daniels thing, my role has been whenever
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  I've been asked to participate in poles is I'll give
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  you my opinion on the first year the guy after
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  the first year, but I'm not ranking him. I want
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  to see two years back to back. That's just my role.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that.
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  Speaker 2: People don't like it, but I'm not gonna it's it's
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  when I've like Mike, I vote for two polls for postseason.
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  One of them is ProFootball Writers Association is by far
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  the most detailed. You know, I have certain rules that like,
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  you got to play a certain amount of games. So
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  they don't have one. But if a guy it's like
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  with the Royals, guy with some guy with the guy
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  on the Royals maybe All Star team. It was ridiculous Baseball,
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  some guy like made in the baseball MLB players are
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  criticizing MLB for putting the guy on there. He only
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  started a number of games. Yeah, you got to play
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  a certain number of games to win an award.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, so and rook. You know, I said, with Bond
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  and Lousville, Lou's resume is better than Bond's. Bond had
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  the better season.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm willing to say. You know, I'm not voting.
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  You know, I didn't have to turn any voter who's better.
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  But if you're asking me who I'd rather have that more,
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  it would be Bond. Because the thing that surprised me
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  the guy I talked to We talked about this and
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  inside the Births of Monday with Jeff talk to someone
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  recently who graded Eagles their offense and defense because this
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  is what teams do. And he said that he cannot
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  believe how Lead Bonds skills and in pass coverages. He
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  he just he doesn't understand how the guy never played
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  this position before. I don't. I don't know, Mike. Some
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  you know, some of what has happened with the Eagles
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  is kind of lucky because if if Fick Fanger doesn't
• 15:54
  speak up, he's gonna be He's going to be an
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  off He's going to be an edgeresser, and that's it,
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  and you'll probably never hear from act Bonnegey probably would
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  be gone after last year. While and then Jeff Stallin
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  putting m Kai back in the guard. Coaching matters, folks.
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  If you've never thought so, I just gave you two
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  great examples.
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  Speaker 1: Adam Kaplin football for a week from today. The Eagles
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  report Wednesday. They practice football is back. The training camp
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  portion begins on Tuesday, and of course we'll have it
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  all for you right here. And don't forget to download
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  the Inside of the Birds podcast on all podcasting platforms.
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  Thank Adam, thank you. There's Adam Kaplan. He's back on Friday,
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  when man, we will be getting close to the start
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  of the Eagles training camp. This is the final week
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  with no football